06-07-26 spal
| Emerging legal strategies propose utilizing the specific phrasing in PDVSA's pari passu clauses to explicitly subordinate non-exchanged debt. By passing domestic or structural regulations that mandate paying the newly restructured bonds ahead of defaulted legacy claims, holdouts face the prospect of never seeing cash flow, rendering holdout litigation economically unviable. |
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06-07-26 spal
Some PDVSA indentures contain an unusual clause explicitly permitting a change of the primary corporate obligor with a simple majority vote.
Advisors have noted that a restructured PDVSA could legally transfer the legacy debt to a hollow shell company while moving the operational oil assets to a "New-New PDVSA," leaving holdouts suing an empty entity. |
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06-07-26 spal
No satanists only only legal logic validating economic reality.
Of course PDVSA holders will talk their book ... some even scream it.
Under Crystallex litigation U.S. federal courts ruled that PDVSA is effectively the "alter ego" of the Venezuelan state.
In credit rating architecture, an SOE almost never commands a rating higher than its sovereign parent. This is because the state holds the ultimate intervention power—it can alter royalty rates, divert export revenues, or expropriate corporate cash at will. PDVSA cannot be creditworthy if the Republic is insolvent.
Venezuela's entire macroeconomic framework and debt sustainability analysis (DSA) depend on oil.
It is impossible to calculate what the Republic can pay without explicitly dictating what PDVSA will spend on capital expenditure to restore production.
This is the reality ... blurtings and protests aside.
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06-07-26 savo
| and the looters continue looting... |
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06-07-26 savo
i do not think that is a problem.... governments can do many things that they do not do... but in order for people to believe that the company has to be run as an autonomous entity...
pbr was 100% state owned and now it isn't |
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06-07-26 carib
“Treasury will utilise all tools available to allow Iranian assets to be made available to our Gulf allies to support rebuilding and repairs for any future damage caused by Iran,” a senior Trump administration official told the FT on Saturday.
The official added that Bessent had “directed his team to assess conditions among our Gulf allies and request comprehensive estimates of the costs associated with repairing damage Iran has inflicted since the start of the conflict”.
“Treasury will further consider whether Iranian assets could be used to support repairs for past damages,” said the official.
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06-07-26 carib
Savo: I think PDVsa shares and dividends are a "commercial asset".
Problem is if Sov creditors can attach it.. |
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06-07-26 savo
carib.. i thought you were saying it is saudi american today...
reinforces the point.. if veni is a protectorate its oil company should not require a haircut of debt... just a re-profiling given that most bonds have already matured or are close to mature.
Something very odd is happening here.. Veni should never put the rep and pdvsa in the same sentence...it gives ammunition to alter ego.
I still feel that this will be corrected.
Delcy could perfectly well restructure pdvsa debt. Nobody in the opposition will complain if that helps increase oil production. But the rep should be a matter left for the next elected government.
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06-07-26 Merlino
In 1944, CASOC was renamed the Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco). To manage massive capital investments
...............................
1944, that is before the end of WWII in 1945. Of course by 1944 that region was secured for USA/UK/French interests....I sense some analogies with current Veni situation and her pre transition/pro USA gov |
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06-07-26 carib
History of ArAmco:
The U.S. Consortium Era (1944–1980):
In 1944, CASOC was renamed the Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco). To manage massive capital investments, SOCAL brought in Texaco, the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey (Exxon), and Socony-Vacuum (Mobil) as co-owners. For decades, this American consortium operated and expanded Aramco’s footprint across Saudi Arabia.
Nationalization (1973–1980):
In the 1970s, the Saudi Arabian government began gradually acquiring ownership of the company. A 25% interest was acquired in 1973, which expanded to 60% in 1974, and finally 100% control by 1980.
Renaming (1988): Eight years after full Saudi ownership, the company was officially renamed the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco), reflecting its binational history and its role as the national oil company.
Given Veny is now an american protectorate, as Saudi de facto was after WW2... |
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06-07-26 savo
irresective of the ownership of aramco... the big question is who recommended veni to bundle together pdvsa and the rep?
it is pure nonsense... the corp has to be restructured so that the sov can then run a sustainability analysis to know what they can and can not pay depending on the dividends and taxes it can obtain from pdvsa.
I can only think of the satanist who spread the fantasy of Pdvsa II and paid lawyers to write about it. |
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06-07-26 savo
carib.. i do not know if this is up to date
The primary ownership stakes are split as follows:
~82%: Owned directly by the Government of Saudi Arabia
~16%: Held by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which is Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund
~2%: Publicly traded on the Saudi Exchange (Tadawul)
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06-06-26 carib
like the old
Anglo-Persian oil co |
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06-06-26 carib
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06-06-26 carib
Savo: no.
Petroleos do Brasil
not Petroleos brasileiros-americanos.
One should whisper to Trump the idea of AmVeCo.. |
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06-06-26 savo
isn't pbr..brazilian-american?
given the pbr quotes in ADRs? |
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06-06-26 carib
| ArAm co is not like Petrobras etc.. it's Arab-American... |
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06-06-26 carib
Venezuela eliminó de su propuesta de normativa petrolera una cláusula que permitía al Estado rescindir contratos con compañías extranjeras bajo el argumento de "interés público", con indemnizaciones por debajo del valor de mercado.
De acuerdo con Bloomberg, la modificación busca hacer más atractivo el marco legal para la inversión extranjera en el sector energético, en medio de intentos del país por reactivar su industria petrolera tras años de sanciones y caída de la producción.
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06-06-26 carib
The world’s biggest oil tanker owners have raised the spectre of a market crash only weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz helped power the industry to a quarter of record profits.
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06-06-26 carib
| Problem is a patently illegitimate de facto government should change the Veny constitution is a way that cannot be revised by the successor. Not a very good idea. |
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06-06-26 carib
Savo: AmVesa, like ArAmco.
then the problem is solved. |
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06-06-26 savo
and sell a part of PDVsa on the market, turning it into a private company, like ARAMco.
an pbr and ypf...etc...of course... but that is for the future..
in the meantime if they haircut pdvsa and the sov... they will borrow more expensive on both...
if they haircut only one.. the rep... they preserve pdvsa for cheaper future borrowing and send the message ...pdvsa is and will always be safe. |
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06-06-26 panasonic
Carib, maybe Sanders' proposal attractive to more than a few ;-)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/maga-hates-ai-but-trump-agrees-with-bernie-it-might-be-time-for-partial-government-ownership/ar-AA24XNcm?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LGTS&cvid=6a243b522d3f4285bdc70b77208e82f5&ei=29 |
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06-06-26 panasonic
"Delcy reding colores has learnt something from Savo"
If not, she should :-)) |
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06-06-26 panasonic
"buy netflix shares?"
That's the tricky part Carib, a youtuber made a film with $750K that netted $80millions only in one weekend, buy NFLX or gets killed on the AI crunch?
Me say, buy calls and pray :-) |
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06-06-26 victor
carib, Will Delcy ask for an IMF programme, or not?
no |
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06-06-26 carib
Maybe Delcy should DT to provide temporary safe harbour for Veny sovereign assets and sell a part of PDVsa on the market, turning it into a private company, like ARAMco.
Cherry on the cake would be accepting PDVsa bonds as coin to buy shares.. |
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06-06-26 savo
may be Delcy reads Colores , has learnt something from Savo the First and plans to tackle PDVSA before moving onto the sov...
Debt sustainability is a sovereign problem... not a corporate one. Veni needs an IMF program for sure...but IMF programs are for sovereigns not for corps.
It would be a very bad precedent to haircut pdvsa debt. It will make it more expensive for years to come to fund it.
Delcy can argue pdvsa would have never defaulted had it not be for sanctions. Reprofile the debt and leave PDVSA in its original immaculate condition. Secure cheaper funding instead for the foreseeable future. |
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06-06-26 leopardo
| Seems she is not so willing but we shall see… |
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06-06-26 carib
Leo: IMF spokeswoman statement:
typically, when a country chooses to restructure its debt, the discussions are between the country authorities and their creditors. The Fund does not participate in those discussions. Most debt restructurings, not all, but most, take place under the umbrella of a Fund program, and our role is to provide the macroeconomic framework. When it's a program, it's agreed obviously with the authorities. And that includes essentially an amount of debt relief that would be needed to restore debt sustainability. So that's really the role of the IMF, but then the discussions themselves, the negotiations, are between the country authorities and their creditors, and we don't participate in those.
Will Delcy ask for an IMF programme, or not?
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06-06-26 savo
i agree with most of these except with the strong job market... most of the jobs are an estimation of the birth-death model:
"In economic tracking, a birth-death model estimates the net jobs created by new businesses opening ("births") and lost from companies closing ("deaths") that cannot be immediately captured by payroll surveys.Because it takes months for new firms to appear on government tax and administrative records, statisticians use this model to forecast these establishment changes and prevent employment reports from lagging"
Bull Theory
@BullTheoryio
EVERYTHING THAT COULD GO WRONG FOR MARKETS WENT WRONG TODAY.
S&P 500 down -1.65%, wiping out $1.14 trillion.
Nasdaq down -2.60%, wiping out $1.11 trillion.
Gold down -3.38%, wiping out $1 trillion.
Silver down -6.9%, wiping out $280 billion.
Bitcoin down -6.31%, wiping out $80 billion.
In total $2.5 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. These were not isolated moves. Everything started breaking at the same time.
It started with the jobs report this morning.
The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 88,000. That is almost double.
On any normal day, strong jobs is good news. But inflation is already at 3.8% and oil is sitting at $90. A labor market this strong tells the Fed it cannot cut interest rates and may actually need to raise them.
The probability of a rate hike this year went from 40% to 57% in a single day. That spooked every investor holding tech and growth stocks because higher rates mean those stocks are worth less today.
Then the AI trade started cracking.
Yesterday Broadcom reported record earnings: revenue up 48%, AI chip sales up 143% and the stock still crashed 12.6%. The reason was simple.
Broadcom did not raise its AI revenue targets for the year. Investors had expected it to. That single miss made people ask a question they had been avoiding for months: are we paying too much for AI stocks?
That question got louder today when a research firm called SemiAnalysis revealed that Nvidia's next-generation AI chips will need significantly less memory than everyone assumed, roughly half of what the market was pricing in.
Memory chips are what companies like SK Hynix and Samsung make. SK Hynix fell nearly 10% today. Samsung fell over 6%.
South Korea's entire stock market crashed 5.5% in a single session. Japan's semiconductor stocks did the same.
And then Anthropic added fuel to the fire by publishing a report warning that AI is getting close to the point where it can improve itself without human help and calling for a global pause in AI development.
Coming on the same day as the memory demand news and Broadcom's miss, it fed a single growing fear across the market: what if the AI boom is moving faster than the business models can keep up with?
Underneath all of this, there is a liquidity problem nobody is talking about.
SpaceX goes public next week at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic just filed to go public. OpenAI is next.
These three companies together are worth $4 to $5 trillion. Fund managers need cash to buy into these listings.
But cash levels are already at their lowest since early 2024. The only way to raise cash is to sell what they already own. That selling is happening right now.
The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also hold his very first policy meeting in 11 days. He was appointed by Trump with the expectation of cutting rates.
He is now walking into a situation where inflation is high, oil is high, and the job market is running hot. Investors do not know what he will do.
When nobody knows what the most powerful central banker in the world will decide in less than two weeks, the safest move is to reduce risk today.
Everything that could go wrong, went wrong at the same time. A hot jobs report, a collapsing ceasefire, a crack in the AI trade, a trillion dollar liquidity drain, and a Fed meeting with no clear outcome. |
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06-06-26 leopardo
FMI aclara que no participa en la reestructuración de la deuda externa de Venezuela
https://www.analitica.com/actualidad-internacional/fmi-aclara-que-no-participa-en-la-reestructuracion-de-la-deuda-externa-de-venezuela/
Good/Bad we shall see |
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06-06-26 carib
Panas: buy netflix shares?
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06-06-26 panasonic
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06-06-26 panasonic
Carib, yep "pan y circo" tax rates.
Market moves 3% up or 5% down daily, what's the importance of 0.25% more or less a year?
Inflow in the markets (now also prediction markets) is massive.
Winners (1%?) will be visible, cars, houses, boats.
Lovers (99%?) stay home watching nflx, TikTok and eating 3$ meals. |
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06-06-26 carib
| Savo: correct.. but the "rate hikes" expected are very small, in line with inflation increase.. (unless I am mistaken) |
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06-06-26 savo
leo.. that is my opinion... but the market .... whatever the market is these days ...is pricing in rate hikes!
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06-06-26 leopardo
| No default, print print print…. |
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