02-18-26 savo
according to AI... the "architecture" is almost in place to start debt negotiations. Odd the legion of anals has not put the pieces together.
1. The Current "License" Landscape
While there is no single "Restructuring General License" yet, recent OFAC actions provide the building blocks:
* General License 49 (Feb 13, 2026): This is the most significant "restructuring-adjacent" move. It authorizes U.S. persons to negotiate and sign "contingent contracts" for new investments. While it doesn't allow the execution of these deals yet, it creates the legal space for formal talks to begin.
* General License 5U (Feb 2, 2026): OFAC extended the protection of CITGO from creditors holding the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bonds until March 20, 2026. This "delay" is widely seen as a placeholder while the U.S. coordinates with the new Venezuelan acting administration (the Rodríguez administration).
* General Licenses 46A & 48: These focus on reopening oil trade and upstream services. By allowing PDVSA to generate cash flow again, the U.S. is effectively building the "repayment capacity" that is a prerequisite for any restructuring.
2. Creditor Activity & Rumors
The markets are pricing in an imminent move. Venezuelan and PDVSA bonds have rallied significantly, trading in the 40–45 cent range (up from single digits).
* Financial Advisers Hired: On February 11, 2026, the Venezuela Creditor Committee (including Fidelity and Greylock) officially selected Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser. This is the clearest signal that creditors expect a license to negotiate within months, if not weeks.
* The "Rodríguez Administration" Factor: Rumors suggest that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is coordinating with the IMF and World Bank to fast-track Venezuela’s re-entry into global markets. A specific license allowing the new Venezuelan government to issue new debt to replace the old defaulted bonds is reportedly under active discussion in Washington.
Key Obstacles Remaining
Despite the optimism, two major hurdles are preventing the "Final License":
* The "China/Russia" Issue: A significant portion of PDVSA’s debt is owed to China and Russia. Rumors indicate the U.S. is hesitant to issue a broad restructuring license until they can ensure that U.S. bondholders aren't being used to "bail out" Chinese oil-for-debt deals.
* Legal Recognition: Restructuring requires a government that can legally bind the Republic. While the U.S. recognizes the acting administration, the full legal "handover" of PDVSA assets is still being finalized in the courts.
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02-18-26 spal
Rackspace Technology Shares Skyrocket on Partnership With Palantir
11:56 AM CST, February 18, 2026Updated 1 hour ago, February 18, 2026 at 11:56 AM CST
Rackspace Technology shares surged 263% after the company announced a partnership with Palantir Technologies focusing on Palantir's Foundry and Artificial Intelligence Platform. |
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02-18-26 spal
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02-18-26 spal
| Carib ... did you buy RTX? |
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02-18-26 spal
SBRA
SABRA HEALTH CARE RE REIT
Watching |
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02-18-26 carib
a kind of spal-like small stock.. (+192% today)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RXT/ |
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02-18-26 leopardo
Ok thank you .
So we can discuss afterwards |
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02-18-26 carib
| Leo: I can mail it to you |
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02-18-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
6.06 (+2.02%)
Trend remains friendly
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02-18-26 leopardo
| Carib is it worth reading? |
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02-18-26 spal
PLD
PROLOGIS INC REIT
Initial position - testing if it is overbought ... or shallow correction. |
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02-18-26 panasonic
| Tks Carib, didn't make any move yet, flirting with the idea yet not 100% convinced. |
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02-18-26 savo
carib... if one calculates the price over total claim.. the effective price of all pdvsa bonds is practically identical for all bonds. A bit lower the 6% 22 which is not in the index.
Meaning the market treat accrued and principal equally. Which makes sense given recent restructurings.
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02-18-26 carib
| Any colores got the recent BofA paper on veny/PDV relative values? |
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02-18-26 carib
| USS Geral Ford passed Gibraltar today. |
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02-18-26 spal
| Senior Housing + health related -data center and select industrial REITS rising rapidly |
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02-18-26 spal
Mean tailwind ... sorry was playing music too loudly ...
;) |
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02-18-26 spal
FRO
FRONTLINE PLC
33.40 (+5.96%)
Monitoring this one ... heavy DHT ... geopolitical uncertainty is a headwind ... chaos is a colores biz ...
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02-18-26 spal
TER
TERADYNE INC
Is clearly ripping along |
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02-18-26 spal
FANUY
FANUC CORP ADR ADR
Initial position - watching.
Fanuc compares favorably but isn't unequivocally better. Among the "Big 4" (Fanuc, Yaskawa, ABB, KUKA), Fanuc leads in precision, speed, and global CNC share (50%), with stronger recent robotics growth and pure-play exposure (38-45% of revenues).
Yaskawa excels in welding and motion control but grew slower recently; ABB offers user-friendliness and cobots but broader diversification (only 11% robotics); KUKA handles heavy payloads but lags in AI adaptation.
Challengers like Universal Robots (cobots) or emerging Chinese firms offer cost advantages, but Fanuc's reliability and ecosystem make it a strong choice for high-precision needs. For pure robotics upside, Fanuc edges out peers; for diversified plays, ABB or Yaskawa could appeal if recovery broadens.
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02-18-26 carib
PDVSA 6 22
29.25
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30.000
PDVSA 9 21
38.90
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39.500
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02-18-26 pillz
| Pana in Stuttgart it is BID 29 ASK 30.4 |
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02-18-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
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14h
VLCC Bonanza continues ! Huge $DHT charter:
In another move up for the rampant VLCC market, a 14-year-old DHT Holdings tanker has been fixed for a year at a robust $90,000 a day, tanker market sources said on Tuesday. |
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02-18-26 spal
| Have large DHT position ... will probably trade some FRO |
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02-18-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
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1h
VLCC spot is 🔥🔥, with TD3C jumping 10% yesterday to $138,000.
Record after record after record …
$BWET $FRO $ECO $DHT |
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02-18-26 carib
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02-18-26 spal
| For that reason, we compile a Real Time CPI using the Zillow Home Price Index (ZVHI) and Zillow Rent Index (ZORI) as a substitute for the BLS' indexes for primary rent and owner's equivalent rent. This adjusted CPI shows that inflation has averaged 2.0% since late 2023. While the Shelter component in CPI has moderated in recent months, it remained the most significant upside contributor in January, responsible for 39% of the monthly increase and 45% of the annual increase in the CPI index. |
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