05-22-26 panasonic
| Carib, when you say cheap, includes historic center? |
|
05-22-26 carib
Panas: depends what you are looking for.
I used to live in the historic centre.
|
|
05-22-26 panasonic
| Pilly, valid then valid now! Cheers haver. |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
"RE in Rome is very cheap."
Tks! Worth a visit, any area(s) you would go first? |
|
05-22-26 carib
| Merlino: such, unfortunately, is Italy, and that explains why I am not there. |
|
05-22-26 carib
| Hi Panas: I have not been living in Italy for the last 30 years, but in Milan and Rome there are decent international private schools, and decent private hospitals. RE in Rome is very cheap. not so in Milano. |
|
05-22-26 pillz
"Let me first tell you one thing: it doesn't matter what the world says about Israel, it doesn't matter what is said about us elsewhere. The only thing that matters is that we can exist here, in the land of our ancestors. And if we don't show the Arabs that the price to pay for the murder of Jews is high, we won't survive."
Words of Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion in 1953. A former leader of the Haganah (the ancestor of the IDF), he was one of the founders of the State of Israel, whose independence he proclaimed on May 14, 1948. |
|
05-22-26 Merlino
in many places, including Tuscany, you can still buy castles for a song..
.......................
Perhaps due to practical problems to renovate and give a use to them
Almost thirty years ago I was involved in the renovation of an old castle in Tuscany which included a good piece of beautiful land, to convert it into a luxurios hotel and resort.
Local politics, permissions, quarrels, etc. were a nightmare. Peyton place cubed. End result: the old castle is still as it was, unused as far as I know. Nobody benefited I presume, everybody lost. |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
Carib, Miami you have options for wealthy, ultra-wealthy and billionaires.
Here works like this: give us your max. and realtor will offer very nice options within your budget. |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
Carib, my reply was in reference to good schools and hospitals in Milan.
Italy has very reasonably priced places to live, but with good hospitals and int'l schools? |
|
05-22-26 carib
| BTW: how much does a penthouse in one of the new good condos in Miami beach cost now? |
|
05-22-26 carib
| Panas: real estate in very attractive, wealthy places, by definition is expensive. Milan is the only place in Italy (essentially) where real estate prices have not remained depressed in the entire XXI century. But in many places, including Tuscany, you can still buy castles for a song.. |
|
05-22-26 victor
|
05-22-26 victor
savo, of course not. :-))
imagine a guy like sanchez, hailed as a hero by the left, offering such to rich people :-))
it's not a left like the german SPD, that forms the Grand Coalition with CDU, and everything is OK.
sanchez is the kind of left that believes in ALWAYS voting against the investiture of any and all PP leaders. always.
i mean, he was under pressure to do away with the golden visa, because it favors rich people.. so he did. |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
| "Going long Jellyfish" :-)) |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
"Danilo Alfonso Diazgranados"
Yes Vic, he used Plus Ultra to extract gold and who knows what else, probably same cartel connected to the case of 1.3 metric tons of pure cocaine found in Air France flight in 2013.
I checked many times the gate during my trips in CCS airport to count how many passengers boarded the flight, it was notorious that each flight had only between 10 and 20 passengers.
We all knew those flights were abt. "something else". |
|
05-22-26 savo
| victor.. i do not know what programs spain offer... but i imagine no non-dom |
|
05-22-26 savo
| i would love to see separation all over the world... |
|
05-22-26 victor
the dt effect :-))
//
Alberta Set To Hold Vote On Whether To Separate From Canada
The Canadian state of Alberta is set to hold a non binding referendum on whether to separate from the country after a group submitted hundreds of thousands of signatures with that goal.
The announcement was made by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and marks the first time in the country's history in which a province different than Quebec seeks to break from Canada. |
|
05-22-26 spal
Ships trapped in the Gulf are accumulating barnacles, algae and jellyfish.
Going long Jellyfish ... for the win. |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
| Carib, real estate in Milano area was very expensive last time I visited. |
|
05-22-26 carib
| Victor: that is fully correct.. and from Portugal and Greece too, I would add. |
|
05-22-26 victor
savo, reuters yesterday posted something nobody has mentioned so far.
looking at the period 2022-2025:
Spain saw strong growth in investments related to intellectual property, up 23.7%.
//
Italy could take economic growth lessons from Spain, stats bureau says
https://www.reuters.com/business/italy-could-take-economic-growth-lessons-spain-stats-bureau-says-2026-05-21/
|
|
05-22-26 carib
Savo: the short answer is: close to none.
But you have international schools and good hospitals in Milano. |
|
05-22-26 victor
savo, all people want is not to have to pay taxes on offshore income, assets and cap gains
//
does spain offer such a program? :-))
|
|
05-22-26 savo
| victor.. saylor is the only buyer... |
|
05-22-26 savo
and there are so many beautiful places in which to live in spain, with good food, affordable housing, good medical and multilingual schools.
Families need schools and pensioners need medical.
how many of those italian municipalities have schools in english, german, spanish or french?
Pensioners do not need schools... ok... but need good medical. Even if they have international insurance... how many of those municipalities have ample medical offer?
I think that in the end all these schemes are half baked... all people want is not to have to pay taxes on offshore income, assets and cap gains. The old UK non dom. Is it that difficult to replicate?
|
|
05-22-26 victor
| savo, interesting how BTC is dropping in spite of the ongoing bullish stock market. |
|
05-22-26 victor
pana, have you heard of Danilo Alfonso Diazgranados ?
he's one of the implicated venezuelans with zp. |
|
05-22-26 victor
pana, yes, correct, but still.. it was the same before decoupling.
a related theory i've heard: the spanish language has become more popular worldwide in the past 4 years, so that is one of the main drivers for decoupling. |
|
05-22-26 panasonic
Besides Savo's post I would add:
Over 500million spanish speakers live outside Spain vs only 20 million italian speakers living outside Italy.
Golden visa will probably draw more attention in Italy from here, but those with visa in Spain can renew for 5 years periods subject initial investment os maintained.
Very important what Savo posted about citizenship only 2 years after residence for latinos. |
|
05-22-26 victor
spal, hallelujah!!
//
but instead you get a sanchez.. unless sanchez is the driver for decoupling.
is he ??? |
|
05-22-26 Merlino
Argentina’s trade performance continues to impress. April’s merchandise report revealed a US$2.7bn surplus, following a US$2.5bn surplus in March and setting new records for the month since 1990. This strong result was driven by a sustained surge in exports and subdued imports, propelling the year-to-date surplus to US$8.3bn
...............................
The other face of this is a multiyear economic recession in general activities excluding extractive/low employment ones like oil, mining, agriculture and a consequent contractionary consumption specially for the former traditional Argentinian middle class.
Besides what mentioned above Financial activities (for gov friends) are king and help to improve the likely false general GDP statistics
A very criminal and corrupt anti liberal government (as interest rates and Fx are controlled) is in charge and unfortunately any visible opposition does not look better/good either
|
|
05-22-26 victor
| hann, thanks, yes, correct, 1-4. but all readily available before spain decoupled from the rest. |
|
05-22-26 carib
| Savo: I have not investigated details.. but I guess you find a financial institution.. provide a capital.. and get an annuity in exchange. If interested, you should get in contact with the italian tax advisor. |
|
05-22-26 spal
Savo - excellent post on Spain ... I almost got a plane to immigrate.
There is no macron in Spain.. no Starmer..no Trump ... hallelujah!!
|
|
05-22-26 savo
carib.. that is fantastic...
how does a colores fabricate a pension? |
|
05-22-26 savo
pillz... that is the main reason imo, as gold gives no yield ..
i think that is the official explanation... the unofficial is simply that the gold/silver markets are intervened by the UST/FED.
The US can not launch another war with a budget deficit of 30% of the budget... bonds at almost 5%..the tariff mess to refund and let gold run loose. It would have gone to 10k..20k and beyond.
Very easy to sell a metric ton of gold in the futures market and plunge gold 20%. They even made a profit. |
|
05-22-26 hann
I have a spain gv and so do many others from Ph. I got mine 7-8 years ago. Many piled in during the final months prior to the program end.
Probably don't spend enough time there (BCN) but:
1) as I understand it Spain gets gas from Algeria so less badly hit than nordstream customers (germany etc)
2) salaries, including for programmers, designers etc, are ridiculously low. Probably 1/8 of Bay Area, CA. It's a plus for corporates.
3) cost of living remains low, though there's a high tier available.
4) I like BCN as a base to go around France etc.
From my investigation, it does not seem worth it to get a passport just for the short line at the airport. Tax, wealth tax etc. Up till last year if could trace a grandparent/great grand parent from spain, you could get citizenship without the 2 year residency requirement (which is a tax exposure).
I still like it in spite of the constant pickpocket/phone theft threat.
Recently we prefer Japan. We have a place in Fukuoka, no residency, no bank account, no drivers license. But still really high QOL, excellent food, prices very reasonable for most things. |
|
05-22-26 victor
savo, in terms of negatives, how about this one?
//
Thousands of Spaniards receive Hacienda’s dreaded ‘fear letters’ – and the fines can reach 20%
Published: 30 Oct 2025
https://euroweeklynews.com/2025/10/30/thousands-of-spaniards-receive-haciendas-dreaded-fear-letters-and-the-fines-can-reach-20/
|
|
05-22-26 carib
| It'on all foreign source income. |
|
05-22-26 carib
Savo:
https://www.imidaily.com/europe/italys-7-flat-tax-for-foreign-pensioners-just-got-a-lot-more-interesting/ |
|
05-22-26 victor
pt, thanks, but italy and portugal also have a nomad visa.
other countries also have it.
savo, right, thanks. i've heard those points.
also another one that would tie into what you said: spain is one of the main entry points of illegal drugs in europe and, thus, also has some of the cheapest drug prices in europe, making it attractive.
but still, most of those points were still valid before 2022, before spain decoupled from the rest of europe.
the one exception would be #3, present legislature started in august 2023:
3) The current legislature has been unable to approve a budget |
|
05-22-26 savo
meanwhile in the land of Messi and the world champions...
JP:
Argentina’s trade performance continues to impress. April’s merchandise report revealed a US$2.7bn surplus, following a US$2.5bn surplus in March and setting new records for the month since 1990. This strong result was driven by a sustained surge in exports and subdued imports, propelling the year-to-date surplus to US$8.3bn—up sharply from just US$1.3bn a year ago. Breaking down the trade balance by segment, the energy balance contributed US$1.1bn to the YTD rise, while the non-energy saw a US$5.8bn improvement, mainly explained by higher agro-related exports (+US$2.7bn) and mining (+US$1.5bn), as well as lower imports |
|
05-22-26 savo
add no insatiable industrial military complex to feed... no wall street upon which to immolate the well being of the rest of the country...no medicare and medicaid and obama care no fanny and freddie... no endless wars... no military support for other countries endless wars... no veternas.. no space program.. no nasa... no dotcom buble... no metadata bubble.. no ai bubble... no central bank... no bidens.. no bushes...no cheneys..no blairs... all those guys care about is a good beer and shrimps at sunset watching the sea...
Think for example that health and education are provided at the Community level... so no grandiose NHS with 3 years waiting lists.
and that is how countries prosper... |
|
05-22-26 patient-trader
they used to call spain "the sick man of europe"
...
Victor, after the financial crisis Spain became very cheap. Cheap office space, low cost of living and plenty of highly-educated unemployed young people. That made Spain attractive for startups and international companies. IT offshoring, game developers etc. In 2022 Spain introduced digital nomad visa.
Such effects can help a country for a long time. E.g. the German "Schröder" 2010 reforms helped Germany for more than a decade to stay competitive. |
|
05-22-26 savo
victor... some things that come to mind...
1) the president of the government in spain ha less power than people think. Power is very decentralized to the autonomous communities. There is no macron in Spain.. no Starmer..no Trump.
2) Spain is very open to Latam immigration who integrate unnoticed with the rest of the population, no language barrier, no ghettos. Those people arrive to work. Spain has a visa program for certain Latam countries whereby after two years of living in spain legally or illegally can access official documentation and remain in the country.
3) The current legislature has been unable to approve a budget... meaning that the country is still running with the 2022 budget. That is good.. no weird inventions every year... no big beautiful bill, no more pork every year, etc...
4) The mediterreanean coast continues being a magnet to people from the rest of europe. Construction, services, hospitality, benefit from increased population.
5) Southern Mediterranean weather.
6) Medical services and school in all languages with IB and AAA Levels, French baccalaureate, etc..providing good ramp for universities in europe and the US.
7) Everybody wants to live in Marbella. Developments at all levels... from the very accessible to the ultra luxurious.
I do not think you find 1 to 7 as a package anywhere else in Europe.
|
|
05-22-26 victor
savo, yes, no dispute there.
can i get your opinion re spain, given your knowledge of the place?
why is it growing more than the rest?
how is it explained?
|
|
05-21-26 savo
victor... 20% or more of people under big risk of entering poverty, etc.
the result of socialism, net zero, QE, Zirp, high taxes, etc...
the west is doomed.
|
|
05-21-26 savo
carib... Pensioners pay only 7% on all foreign income.
all meaning pension income and financial income?
what about cap gains?... zero?
|
|
05-21-26 victor
carib, you can argue the same about spain: old people, cheapo salaries, people leaving for better jobs in other countries, etc.
there was a statistic of cat, which i recently read which was like 20% or more of people under big risk of entering poverty, etc.
something really bad re risk of poverty.
and spanish hacienda treats people HORRIBLY.
the shakira proves it. |
|
05-21-26 carib
Victor: fact is italy's brain drain continues and accelerates: salaries are too low for graduates, and careers are too slow.
Italy is a declining gerontocracy.. with residual elements of "dolce vita" and many beautiful spots. |
|
05-21-26 carib
May 21 (Reuters) - U.S. oil major Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), opens new tab is in talks to acquire rights to produce oil in Venezuela nearly two decades after it was effectively expelled from the country, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.
The deal, which could be finalized and announced as soon as this month, would involve Exxon signing contracts to produce oil in up to six fields in several regions in Venezuela, the report added. |
|
05-21-26 victor
carib, imagine that.
pana, see.. that's my point. |
|
05-21-26 carib
Italy introduced a non-dom tax regime already in 2017.
Now they have a slate of different tax incentives for impatriates.
Qualified impatriates only hay half of income tax on salary.
Pensioners pay only 7% on all foreign income.
etc etc |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, since 2023, i have been asking similar questions to other people, and i have not been able to get a compelling answer. something that would explain why.
i just observe that spain started to decouple from europe since putin invaded ukr.. as if it was good for spain relative to others. |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, spain doesn't have golden visa any longer.
sanchez eliminated it a year ago.
but the country is still doing better than expected.
Spain's Golden Visa program officially ended on April 3, 2025. |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, "Tourism in Italy accounts for approximately 13% of the national GDP."
similar to spain..
how do you explain the difference in growth between spain and italy?
|
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Italy now is trying to enter the same game, they recently approved the golden visa. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Similar effect happened in Portugal, maybe Carib can describe a bit how it was there. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Vic, as posted here, I spend a good time of the day trading, US markets close at 9 or 10pm Spain's time, I can go to any bar or restaurant (nothing fancy) and is packed with people.
In some EU countries I will be lucky if find a food truck serving pizza :-) |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, why so low?
Italy's GDP growth for 2024 is projected to be 0.7% |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, if that theory is right, then why so low?
France's GDP growth for 2024 is projected to be 1.1%. |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, if so, then why not france or italy? |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Rajo? He left in 2018...remote working, yolo, to tha moon, all that is a post-covid phenomenon. |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, if that's true, why didn't tourism didn't have the same effect with rajoy? |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Vic, old discussion, when tourism blossoms it brings a lot of other industries to work, real estate, construction materials and equipment, restaurants, food supply, shopping, furniture, kitchens, appliances, telecom, it's a real boom.
I'm going to Spain 2 or 3 times a year since a long time, the remote worker effect, and all tech changed the landscape in Spain in few years.
|
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, i have no idea if this is accurate, but even if it is.. it is NOT due to tourism.
i was just now reading that tourism is apparently lower than 16%.
//
🛬 Europe’s Most Visited Countries in 2025 (millions of tourists):
1. 🇪🇸 Spain: 330M
2. 🇮🇹 Italy: 265M
3. 🇹🇷 Türkiye: 155M
4. 🇫🇷 France: 151M
5. 🇬🇧 UK: 150M
https://x.com/Civixplorer/status/2056313154938785915
|
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, that's not it. ive told you this before, tourism is much lower % of gdp than people assume.
only 16% of gdp. that is not it. |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, they used to call spain "the sick man of europe" |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
"why wasn't it true with aznar, rajoy, gonzalez or zp ??"
Short answer AirBnB |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Exactly Vic, without Maduro now I care less.
Maybe down the road I would root for a Gov. that will kick chavistas out of Salamanca, but most probably not in my lifetime. |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, it was me that told you Spanish economy will do great independently of any political mess, remember?
//
btw, i find such statements to be flawed.
if this is true, then why wasn't it true before sanchez?
why wasn't it true with aznar, rajoy, gonzalez or zp ??
|
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, why you are under the impression that I care abt. who wins in Spain.
//
i am not, especially now that nm has been removed. |
|
05-21-26 carib
| I owe Savo a dinner + transportation if PDVsa bonds go to 100.. |
|
05-21-26 carib
| Panas: you mean 2024 or 2004? |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
"Ships trapped in the Gulf are accumulating"
Pdvsa bonds should be trading above 100% already. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
"just ruminating"
Vic, certainly!
I back my two posts, 1) ZP and Sanchez same policies.
2) Aznar sending few soldiers on tourist tour to Iraq in March 2023 was not the cause of his defeat in 2024.
Last Q: why you are under the impression that I care abt. who wins in Spain? |
|
05-21-26 carib
Ships trapped in the Gulf are accumulating barnacles, algae and jellyfish as the Middle East conflict drags on and temperatures begin to rise, impeding their ability to eventually exit the region.
|
|
05-21-26 carib
PS: you pay US$ and get paid in US$, at the market FX rate.
securities held offshore. |
|
05-21-26 carib
The BRL remains always an interesting long term alternative, in particular if you have interests in brasil.
Currently, you can get 10Y securities paying 8,2%+ IPCA (consumer inflation rate).
|
|
05-21-26 carib
Savo: we have money, and we have to decide in which instruments and jurisdictions to allocate it.
If you dump all dollar denominated securities, you have to buy something else. 100% gold bullion?
|
|
05-21-26 savo
the thing carib is that i do not think there is any endemic capital flight from china...money goes in for real investments..... money goes out for financial investments...
in the US money does not go in for real investments... but money goes in for financial investment...hence no growth... and a bloated budget deficit.
It is sad to see the GOP turned into another democratic party...
in fact now they have the DemoCrats and the DemoCans. |
|
05-21-26 carib
| I would be glad to invest in chinese growth, if I understood how. |
|
05-21-26 savo
|
05-21-26 carib
Savo: I am aware.
What % of your estate is invested in China (or chinese RMB)? |
|
05-21-26 spal
| Savo on the dollar I will clearly agree with a more subtle interpretation. |
|
05-21-26 savo
carib.. China's economy exploding to the upside...
China's Q1 foreign trade rose 15% to 11.84 trillion yuan (US$1.73 trillion), a record for the period. Exports grew 11.9% and imports 19.6%
meanwhile in the US.. the swamp getting deeper... |
|
05-21-26 spal
| Those Iranians that you are talking to … are they in the room with us? |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, also, what i remember mentioning is that in my op the current "benevolent, positive sanchez" was due to miriam who blocks everything in congress.. and also that i intend to sell by next year. |
|
05-21-26 savo
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iranian source close to the negotiating team:
1. The exchange of texts has not yet reached a final draft.
2. The US insistence on nuclear negotiations has dragged the talks to a deadlock.
3. Meanwhile, U.S. threats have angered Iran, and Tehran shows little desire to continue negotiations.
4. The possibility of conflict starting exists at any moment.
@Middle_East_Spectator |
|
05-21-26 savo
spal... China cannot become a premier global reserve currency under its current economic model.
nor do they want to for all the reasons that you explain.
I think we are mixing things here.
The US$ has lost its reserve status the moment foreign central banks holdings of gold surpassed those of USTs. That part is settle...
However, the US$ remains and will remain for the foreseeable future the trading currency of choice... because, in international trade, most things are priced in US$. No other currency can perform that task outside some reduced areas of Chinese influence.
Tha does not mean people like the US$.. it is just convenience... it is the most liquid currency ..etc..
Regarding financial assets... there are few options outside US$ bonds and stocks... so the dollar will remain preferred there too.
If you go to argentina... you will notice that people buy and sell in argie pesos.. that does not mean they like the argie peso... it is simple the most liquid currency inside the country.
What the peso is in argie... the dollar is in the world.
The problem is that does not resolve the US funding problem. The US can run its humongous budget and trade and CA deficits and finance its army, because the world has been buying USTs at rates that kept the problem manageable... but if the world starts asking rates of 5...6... 10%.. because of inflation the dollar/financial crisis is inevitable. |
|
05-21-26 savo
| JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran reach final draft of agreement, Iranian media reports. |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, please understand i am not one in need to vote for anyone.
it also surprises me why would think i only have 2 choices (psoe or pp) in case i decided to ever vote.
anyway, just ruminating, dont pay too much attention :-)) |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, you also told me that sanchez = zp, and that sanchez was pro-russia, and that aznar did not send troops to iraq.. just saying. |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, your vote goes to PSOE or PP?
//
you extrapolate so much. |
|
05-21-26 pillz
"nominal rates up gold down"
//
that is the main reason imo, as gold gives no yield .. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Now the real Q is: your vote goes to PSOE or PP? |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Vic, it was me that told you Spanish economy will do great independently of any political mess, remember? |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, why would you think that spain is incapable of having a k-shaped economy? |
|
05-21-26 victor
| pana, those 2 statements are perfectly compatible. |
|
05-21-26 victor
carib, right, it's one of the problems with the kind of economies that we have nowadays.
those with capital do well, those without, don't. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
"most people are getting screwed.
economic benefits are NOT trickling down to most.
that's why the PSOE keeps losing election after election."
And at the same time you posted "Spain is the country growing the most in EU".
Vic, you seem to be undecided yourself on who to vote for :-))) |
|
05-21-26 carib
| Victor: that actually applies to any party in power, I am afraid.. |
|
05-21-26 victor
El juez de la Audiencia Nacional bloquea las cuentas de Rodríguez Zapatero
El instructor acuerda esta medida una vez que se está investigando el flujo del dinero que podría haber cobrado por influencias
Según una diligencia de ordenación a la que ha tenido acceso La Vanguardia, el instructor ha acordado el bloqueo de diversas cuentas “visto el estado de las presentes actuaciones”. Esta decisión ha sido el siguiente paso después de que el martes se acordara la entrada y registro del despacho oficial del expresidente, donde se le ha requisado toda la documentación papel y digital.
|
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, "jumping ahead of time"
//
most people are getting screwed.
economic benefits are NOT trickling down to most.
that's why the PSOE keeps losing election after election. |
|
05-21-26 spal
Now let's please continue with the sound bites on the dollar's demise and the evils of America ...
;)) |
|
05-21-26 spal
China cannot become a premier global reserve currency under its current economic model. To achieve true reserve status, a nation must fulfill three institutional requirements that Beijing’s leadership is fundamentally unwilling to grant.
First, a reserve asset requires open, hyper-liquid financial markets. Because China must enforce strict capital controls to prevent massive domestic capital flight, foreign institutions cannot freely enter or exit the onshore ecosystem at scale. Ring-fenced initiatives like offshore RMB hubs and the digital yuan facilitate trade settlement, but they fail to create a trusted store of sovereign wealth.
Second, a reserve currency demands **institutional trust and the rule of law. In China, property rights and capital allocations remain subordinate to the state's political objectives, exposing foreign capital to arbitrary administrative lockups.
Finally, a global reserve currency faces Triffin’s Dilemma: the issuing nation must run persistent trade deficits to supply the world with its currency. Doing so would dismantle China's entire economic engine, which relies on massive trade surpluses to sustain domestic manufacturing and employment.
Ultimately, the yuan will remain a highly manicured tool for bilateral trade—an "ersatz dollar" that cannot transition into a genuine global reserve asset without triggering a systemic domestic crisis.
Therefore Chickity ... |
|
05-21-26 carib
| Nimitz carrier strike group moving to the caribbean.. (not towards Veny, but Cuba) |
|
05-21-26 spal
| They know this BTW ... certain the CCP and their brains trust (so to speak). |
|
05-21-26 spal
Why is there endemic capital flight from China, and not from the USA?
and who said that is true?
===
The contrary - US is open ... China is closed and their currency is linked to the dollar ... hence ersatz status.
If it floated it would be crushed.
|
|
05-21-26 spal
Chickity China
Subordinating the Capital Account to Trade Policy
To maintain a tightly managed float (an artificial undervaluation or stability relative to the dollar), the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has historically had to engage in massive buying of dollars and selling of yuan. If capital could move freely, standard arbitrage would break this link instantly. By deliberately keeping the capital account walled off via strict capital controls, Beijing chose:
Exchange rate stability (to secure its status as the world's factory).
Monetary independence (to fund state-directed industrial policy)....and sacrificed a free capital account.
This choice effectively ties China’s domestic monetary system to US Federal Reserve policy cycles. When the Fed hikes or cuts rates, the PBOC is forced to use heavy-handed administrative tools and backdoor capital controls to stop capital from leaking out, preventing the yuan from breaking its designated trading band.
The Side Effects: A Bloated Banking System & Unsterilized Credit - Because the capital account is closed, the dollar proceeds from China’s massive, structural trade surpluses cannot easily be reinvested abroad by Chinese citizens or private firms. Instead, they flow into the central bank, which issues local currency (onshore yuan) in exchange.
This creates structural pathologies:
The Trapped Wealth Phenomenon: Because domestic savers have few legitimate paths to invest externally, an immense pool of liquidity is trapped inside the domestic ecosystem.Unsterilized Credit & Asset Bubbles: The PBOC has frequently struggled to completely "sterilize" (mop up) the domestic liquidity injected by its foreign exchange interventions. This trapped capital naturally sloshed into the domestic banking system, resulting in hyper-financialization, an over-allocated property sector, and a deeply bloated banking system saddled with non-performing loans to State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
Lack of Domestic Capital Depth: While China has advanced industries, its financial markets lack the transparency and institutional trust required to offer diverse, high-yield investment options for its own population, leaving citizens with few choices outside of low-yield bank deposits or state debt.
The Vulnerability: The Floating Yuan "Trap"
... capital flight is the ultimate structural trap facing Beijing.If China were to genuinely float the yuan and dismantle capital controls tomorrow, it would not trigger a orderly transition to a global reserve currency. Instead, it would trigger an unprecedented exodus of capital.
The Mechanics of the Flight: Wealthy individuals, corporate entities, and ordinary savers—fully aware of the structural vulnerabilities, real estate devaluation, and lack of secure domestic assets—would rush to convert their trapped yuan into foreign assets (dollars, gold, offshore equities).T
he irony of the "ersatz dollar" strategy is that it built a financial fortress that is simultaneously a prison. The strict capital controls are the only thing preventing a massive devaluation of the currency and a systemic run on the domestic banking sector.T
he Mid-2026 Nuance: The 15th Five-Year Plan DilemmaThis structural tension is coming to a head. The Chinese government has actively promoted "RMB Internationalization" and announced plans to gradually liberalize the capital account under its newly minted 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). However, they are attempting to do this via a highly manicured "closed-loop" system (like the Silk Road Fund, the digital yuan, and strictly monitored trade settlement channels). They want the prestige of an international currency without giving up the control that prevents the capital flight you identified.
Ultimately the very mechanics that granted China its historic trade dominance have left it with an extraordinarily fragile, debt-laden internal monetary framework that cannot survive contact with free-market capital flows.
Hence Chickity ...
;) |
|
05-21-26 savo
Why is there endemic capital flight from China, and not from the USA?
and who said that is true?
|
|
05-21-26 spal
| The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma (the "Impossible Trinity") ... or according to Schpal ... "Why China is really Chickety China" |
|
05-21-26 spal
|
05-21-26 carib
The next question is what is the size of colores holdings in €.
I guess a large number of millions.. essentially from EU based Colores... |
|
05-21-26 spal
Since the yuan is linked to the dollar - it is what is called an erzatz dollar ... the rest of what you read about it is BS.
As soon as it is floated the capital flight out will sink it. |
|
05-21-26 Merlino
What is the size of collective colores holdings of RMB (chinese yuans)?
............................
The only yuans I have hold were the ones I got from local ATMs using my usd debit card during a tourism trip
However my pockets are not deep enough to be taken as reference |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
|
05-21-26 carib
| What is the size of collective colores holdings of RMB (chinese yuans)? |
|
05-21-26 carib
There is a significant market for stablecoins linked to the US$.
In many latin american and african countries they are the only way for small savers to hold a reliable currency.
Why are 99% of stablecoins dollar linked, if the dollar is broken?
Why is there endemic capital flight from China, and not from the USA?
;-) |
|
05-21-26 Merlino
The three IPOs alone programmed before year end will very likely ad a few $T of instantaneous but real wealth to the nation and privates. That will be much more than the 2026 increased in public/private debt.
For an old/traditional chap like me it is crazy economics as it is not based in productivity and production however I must admit it is real at least as long as it endures. |
|
05-21-26 spal
What looks rational and logic almost never happens.
===
Wise words |
|
05-21-26 spal
Holding - Schpal Schpecial
$GCUMF Gunnison Copper’s Q1 2026 results confirm a healthy balance sheet, highlighted by the complete elimination of its legacy secured debt.More importantly, recent corporate restructuring confirms the asset is being prepped for an early sale. Management recently secured a fixed $65 million royalty buyback option that is explicitly triggered only by a change-of-control transaction before March 2028. This move, combined with the onboarding of a new CEO and strategic backing from Rio Tinto and AWS, positions the company as a clean, highly attractive acquisition target.While near-term dilution remains a risk following a new C$200 million base shelf prospectus filing, this financing tool serves as a strategic liquidity bridge to advance permitting rather than a long-term capital drag. Boasting a robust US$2.0 billion post-tax NPV8%, Gunnison is a prime asymmetric buyout play, making it a Strong Hold and an attractive target for patient accumulation. |
|
05-21-26 Merlino
who will want to lend to a country with no real growth.. a large budget deficit... who does not want to make any effort to balance the budget and fires the only senator who wanted to make an effort to put the house in order?
................................
Ok however the demise of the US and her empire, the usd, etc. is already a very generalized view. A too generalized view I would say.
What looks rational and logic almost never happens.
Debt is very high and growth can be low however assets at current prices are also very high. $T in mkt cap, RE, land, resources, etc.
Mkt levels are indicating anything but a demise of USA. WE can be surprised to see even higher and craziest mkt levels and value of the usd against all the equally crappy or worse currencies around.
Gold and silver I do not know however they seems to me (may be wrong) they are small (direct w/o derivatives) mkts in comparison to the usd currency/debt volume. Charts do not look very enticing at this point.
|
|
05-21-26 spal
PPIH
PERMA-PIPE INTL HLDG
==
Adding.
Q1 results out c. June 9 or 10 |
|
05-21-26 spal
That does not mean people will not continue piling up on semiconductors and other pearls of the stock market...
===
Well that is all we really want to know ...
;))
I did however visit Karl Marx's grave in Highgate ...
|
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, has nothing to do with short term moves.
If UST30Y yields 6% you buy and when rates fall back to 3.5% (on recession fear) you can book an excellent profit, that is how it works in current markets. |
|
05-21-26 savo
| rates did not go down in covid because the economy halted... but because of QE... for which today's inflation is the cost. |
|
05-21-26 savo
pana.. the us is not servicing its debt already... they are borrowing to pay the interest...
if growth falls more.... may be rates go up and not down... as tax income will fall... and the US will need to borrow more... not less...
who will want to lend to a country with no real growth.. a large budget deficit... who does not want to make any effort to balance the budget and fires the only senator who wanted to make an effort to put the house in order?
|
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Savo, indeed if growth collapses, rates will fall naturally...that mitigates the "won't be able to service debt" part of the equation, no? |
|
05-21-26 savo
"Turkey has been a heavy sell so will the oil reliant sovs"
and what will they do when the war ends ?
will they not start replenishing those gold reserves or do you think they will buy USTs?
|
|
05-21-26 savo
pana... growth continues being the opposite of strong...
q4 25 annualised 0.5%
q1 26 annualised 2%
as for earnings beating estimates... that is the narrative..
wall street runs on narrative... main street runs on reality... and reality looks ugly.
That does not mean people will not continue piling up on semiconductors and other pearls of the stock market... |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, and growth continues to be strong, and companies' earnings are beating estimates...interesting days to be active.
|
|
05-21-26 spal
| Savo - yes - agree on what seems to be buying favors etc. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
| Vic, that validates my view that ruling out Sanchez on next year's elections is jumping ahead of time. |
|
05-21-26 savo
pana... if history repeats... gold will do better than stock indexes, cash, bonds and real estate in most locations...
..but will not be linear.
Regarding the fed... Walsh does not have the luxury Volcker had to increase rates on very low debt.
If Walsh increases rates even minimally Trump will go nuts...
if he increases rates in the magnitude needed there will be widespread defaults, riots and an unprecedented financial crisis.
I think they will choose inflation... |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
"Turkey has been a heavy sell so will the oil reliant sovs"
That is what makes gold a lousy hedge vehicle, investors sell performing assets to raise cash. |
|
05-21-26 savo
|
05-21-26 savo
i agree that the war has caused a lot of damage of precious metals..
but central banks selling treasuries... and receiving cash US$.. what are they going to do with that?
i would say gold will be up in the list... and semiconductors will not be in the list.
|
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, that is clear to me.
What I'm trying to say is that depending on the view, gold could be seen as a hedge, and to others as currency, for those the relative value vs fiat currencies does not make grow the size of gold stash.
That said, after many financial crises and all sort of political madness etc. the best way I've found to "hedge" such moments have been cash, and asking if anyone here has a different approach? |
|
05-21-26 savo
| spal... irrespective of the true amount involved... the message is that the chief crook pardons the campaign contributor crook... |
|
05-21-26 spal
| My son seems to like it - I took a look at the second rate beat up piece of junk they sell call real estate there and sell to young people. What a joke. By the way the whole process of buying real estate (unless you are Russian and unless you are in Belgravia is irredeemably broken). Anyhow he is young, in love and this is different for him ... but you pay through the nose for the comfort, cuteness and picture book history you get there. |
|
05-21-26 spal
good to hold energy, tech.. and armaments, I guess.
====
And Wisconsin RE ...
Back state side from the UK ... there is zero comparison now in terms of economic outlook, individual prosperity and relative standard of living.
The UK is cute, quaint, but clearly second rate. Nice if you are a well heeled bourgeoisie, but even then I would get bored tooling around the lake country in my Range Rover. |
|
05-21-26 spal
Savo - on Milton ...
You are completely right to be skeptical—**that number is wildly inaccurate.** Trevor Milton absolutely did not walk away with $7 billion in cash.
The confusion likely stems from a mix-up between his *peak paper net worth* and the actual *cash* he managed to extract before the company imploded.
Here is how the numbers actually break down:
### 1. The "7 Billion" was Paper Wealth, Not Cash
At the absolute height of the electric vehicle bubble in mid-2020, Nikola Corporation's stock skyrocketed, briefly giving the pre-revenue company a market cap higher than Ford. Because Milton owned about 25% of the shares, his **on-paper net worth** briefly peaked right around **$7 billion to $8 billion**.
However, that wasn't money in a bank account; it was highly volatile, restricted startup equity.
### 2. What He Actually Kept (The Real Cash Out)
Milton didn't leave empty-handed, but the actual cash he extracted was a fraction of that headline figure:
* **The IPO Cash-Out:** According to the SEC and financial filings (notably highlighted in the original Hindenburg Research report), Milton cashed out roughly **$70 million** around the time of the public listing.
* **Subsequent Stock Sales:** Following his resignation in September 2020 and subsequent legal troubles, he periodically liquidated blocks of shares, bringing his total lifetime stock sales closer to the **$300 million** range.
### 3. Claws Back and Penalties
Even that cash came under severe pressure from legal battles. An arbitration panel ordered Milton to pay **$165 million** back to Nikola to cover the costs of the company’s SEC settlement and legal fees.
While his paper wealth evaporated by more than 85% as Nikola stock plummeted into bankruptcy, his criminal convictions for securities and wire fraud—which carried a four-year prison sentence—were erased by a presidential pardon in March 2025.
So, if anyone claims he personally "kept" $7 billion, they are fundamentally confusing the transient peak value of a hyper-inflated stock bubble with actual cold, hard cash. He walked away a multi-millionaire, but nowhere near a multi-billionaire.
Fact checking anything that does not sound right is easy these days amigo. |
|
05-21-26 spal
| GLD not working - Turkey has been a heavy sell so will the oil reliant sovs - to break the price shock. I see sideways gold for a while although longer term we have generalized inflation. |
|
05-21-26 victor
pana, sanchez isn't zp.. the EC revised UP spain's growth from 2.3 to 2.4%..
while revising down the region from 1.2 to 0.9%.
//
Bruselas rebaja las previsiones de la economía europea por la guerra de Irán pero España esquiva el golpe
La Comisión vuelve a situar a España como el país que más crece entre las grandes potencias mientras revisa a la baja en tres décimas la expansión de la eurozona
La Comisión Europea ha rebajado las previsiones económicas de la eurozona de esta primavera en tres décimas, del 1,2% al 0,9% para este año, mientras la inflación se eleva del 1,9% al 3% debido a los altos precios del combustible
España resiste a los malos números y sigue siendo el país que más crece entre las grandes potencias de la UE, que en su conjunto aumentará un 1,1%. Bruselas considera que la expansión de la economía española es robusta, y hasta realiza una ligera revisión al alza del cuadro del 2026 debido a un “fuerte efecto arrastre” del año anterior. Si en otoño la Comisión calculaba que España crecería un 2,3% este año, en las previsiones económicas de primavera indica que lo hará un 2,4%
|
|
05-21-26 CAC
Am Israel Jai
On the need of blood of bloodthirsty NetanDracula:
Middle East Spectator — MES
— 🇺🇸/🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed a renewed effort to reach a deal with Iran during a lengthy and tense phone call on Tuesday.
|
|
05-21-26 savo
in my opinion because algos do what they were told to do...
but it does not matter... precious metals are not for those who want to see their portfolio go up everyday.
|
|
05-21-26 victor
savo, Since the Iran war gold has not behaved as people would have expected.
yes... why, in your opinion? |
|
05-21-26 savo
pana... i do not think one should own precious metals and sell when needing to pay the electricity bill.
All I tried to do over the last few months was to bring them into the conversation, pointing out that when measured against real money passive equity investment (equity index funds as recommended by Buffet) has produced negative returns.
Gold is real money because it can not be manipulated by politicians and central banks, but its price can fluctuate or stagnate for many reasons.
Since the Iran war gold has not behaved as people would have expected...which shows that as any asset it is not easy to predict. Prices these days are not a consequence of human actions but of algorithms which are simplifications like "oil up gold down"... "nominal rates up gold down"... irrespective of oil up meaning more inflation and real rates going down.
But reality eventuall ycatches up with wall street narrative.
However, if one has the ability to spot the equity sector that moves, that person will do better than gold, if he always gets it right.
Carib said semiconductors did better than gold. At every point in time there will be something doing better than gold and many things doing worse. Gold is an asset class not an equity sector. We compare gold with equities, not with sectors.. not with specific stocks. |
|
05-21-26 panasonic
Savo, in the context of rates or QE or Fed Balance Sheet as you posted, yes you could time some asset re-allocation.
If strictly as your asset of choice, monetary policy has no relevance as size of your holding won't vary, X oz will be X minus what you had to sell to cover expenses during the year. |
|
Board
