10-30-26 panasonic
Savo, my take since all the craziness started.
True demand for AI compute is unlimited, that doesn't mean there is unlimited profits and/or ROI.
Now all AI "stars" start babbling when asked how investors will get their money back. |
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10-30-26 savo
pana ...allowed their companies FCF go negative
the odd thing is that the more negative those FCF turned ..the more the market celebrated and pushed quotes up.
Momentum trading has screwed the markets...I prefer the old days with human intervention.
The other part is that those FCF were a source of federal government financing... now they compete with the government for funds. |
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10-30-26 victor
carib, if anything, it's this risk...
//
cnn
¿Qué se puede hacer en noviembre?: Trump no puede simplemente tomar el control de las elecciones intermedias, como algunos de sus aliados quisieran. Los estados y los gobiernos locales administran la votación, y cualquier intervención federal importante enfrentaría enormes obstáculos legales y constitucionales.
Trump insta a sus partidarios a votar en cantidades masivas —incluso por correo— y a movilizarse como observadores electorales. “Tienen que asegurarse de que la gente no esté haciendo trampa”, ha dicho.
A medida que crecen las exigencias de acciones más agresivas entre sus seguidores, Trump ha insinuado la posibilidad de declarar una emergencia nacional para ejercer un mayor control federal sobre las elecciones de mitad de mandato, afirmando que “han ocurrido cosas más extrañas”. También ha dicho que lamenta no haber incautado las máquinas de votación tras las elecciones de 2020: “Bueno, debería haberlo hecho”.
El periodo más volátil podría producirse tras el cierre de las urnas, especialmente si contiendas reñidas permanecen sin resolverse mientras Trump alega fraude.
Trump llegará al mes de noviembre con el control de agencias federales que poseen amplias facultades para investigar posibles delitos, presentar demandas, solicitar registros de votantes y de ciudadanía, y pedir a los jueces que autoricen registros en busca de material electoral.
Algunos funcionarios electorales y expertos legales se preparan ante la posibilidad de que los investigadores soliciten papeletas o equipos de votación mientras aún se definen los resultados de las contiendas. Los expertos califican esto como un escenario extremo, y cualquier orden federal de registro requeriría la aprobación de un juez.
Las disputas en torno a las denuncias de fraude, el recuento de votos y la certificación de resultados provocaron semanas de batallas legales tras las elecciones de 2020 y culminaron en el ataque al Capitolio de los Estados Unidos el 6 de enero de 2021. |
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10-30-26 victor
carib, not good for Trump
most people have already decided what they are doing on tuesday. |
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10-30-26 panasonic
| And to add pain to the injury, the only one with no cash flow problems, Apple, just released a dual phone with cracking screen :-( |
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10-30-26 panasonic
Savo, all these tech guys (making gazillions) allowed their companies FCF go negative, I shared here my concerns since came back from Vegas in January, so called experts are a bunch of inepts.
I would gladly have done a better job with a fraction of their compensation packages.
Now the idiots are running negative cash flows and when asked have no visibility on ROI, wtf!! |
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10-30-26 Merlino
Probably the idea behind this drop
................
It looks so |
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10-30-26 savo
pana...AI is sustaining US GDP growth... remove AI and there is already a recession... now that housing is a drag on consumption
net... less tax collection... more spending ..larger budget deficit...
add wars... energy prices at ATH... and many disruptions to the supply chain.
And nobody to bail out the federal government. |
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10-30-26 panasonic
Spal, me don't think indexes are sustainable without AI, a wash here is "game over", like Musk said this morning.
...but if investment goes doesn't mean AI isn't here to stay, wrecking everything in their path. |
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10-30-26 spal
| Certainly the AI trade is unwinding and other stuff is being sold for liquidity. It is not the entire market however. |
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10-30-26 panasonic
"not good for Trump"
Probably the idea behind this drop.
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10-30-26 carib
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10-30-26 spal
| Nasty is slipping further and taking a lot of the market with it. |
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10-30-26 panasonic
| All my calls whacked (gold included), was good till the music stops, and I sense a long silence. |
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10-30-26 Merlino
coopera con Estados Unidos desde la caída de Nicolás Maduro
..........
Only since maduro´s fall? Hmmmmm...
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10-30-26 spal
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10-30-26 spal
JUST IN: Two Oil Tankers escorted by the U.S. Military have been Hit by Iranian Missiles near Oman.
Whoops |
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10-30-26 panasonic
Spal, frpm my last post, the AI story is over...days of building without FCF are over.
What's next? me been saying for a long time already, China is playing an impecable chess game.
...apparently today Musk jumped to my field.
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10-30-26 panasonic
| Vic, imho veni narcos are waiting for GOP meltdown, meanwhile playing nice. |
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10-30-26 spal
$AMD
down over 9% in the premarket. |
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10-30-26 spal
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10-30-26 spal
Seatbelts ... premarket looking rough for many.
An example:
$DELL is down 13% premarket, 8:49 ET — the PC names are taking the worst of $INTC's warning that the slump runs into next year. |
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10-30-26 victor
pana, also from 2 weeks ago
//
Diosdado Cabello, ministro del Interior de Venezuela, coopera con Estados Unidos desde la caída de Nicolás Maduro y tuvo un papel crucial en la entrega de Álex Saab y la captura de Raúl Gorrín, según una fuente vinculada desde hace años a los servicios de inteligencia estadounidenses citada por David Alandete, corresponsal de ABC en Washington.
En su carta "La caída de Diosdado en los planes de Washington", el periodista informa también de un plan para trasladar al dirigente chavista a un tercer país si mantiene esa colaboración. La fuente señala a Turquía y Catar como posibles destinos y asegura que existe una aeronave identificada para la operación.
"De momento, mientras siga siendo útil y coopere, Washington le permite continuar en Venezuela", escribe Alandete, quien recuerda que Cabello sigue imputado en Nueva York y que Estados Unidos mantiene una recompensa millonaria por él.
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10-30-26 victor
pana, btw, this is from 2 weeks ago
//
Suiza retira de su lista de sancionados a la esposa de Diosdado Cabello y al diputado chavista Jorge Arreaza
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10-30-26 savo
North Korean hackers
of course!
and Maduro too! |
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10-30-26 panasonic
| Odds of a rate hike going down, growth will slow down without AI, hard days ahead for the economy, especially well-paid jobs. |
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10-30-26 victor
North Korean hackers linked to record-breaking $6.3 billion Binance crypto heist
The hack is shaping up to be the largest crypto theft in history, far exceeding the previous record set in February 2025 when attackers nabbed $1.5 billion from crypto derivatives exchange ByBit.
Blockchain analysis firms TRM Labs and Elliptic have linked the theft to North Korean hackers, with TRM attributing the theft "with high confidence" to the group responsible for the ByBit hack, known as TraderTraitor. |
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10-30-26 spal
| I can not stand those pricks - next on my list would be so-called "data scientists" ... what a crock of shit. |
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10-30-26 spal
BTW - delighted to see crypto crashing - I want every one of those crypto bros to go BK.
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10-30-26 spal
A year ago, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta generated $60.7 billion of free cash flow in a single quarter. This summer, $7.4 billion.
They didn't sell less. Revenue grew 19% at Microsoft, 25% at Alphabet and 26% at Meta. What changed is the bill: $125.6 billion in three months for data centers, chips and servers, double what they spent a year earlier. Meta put 54 cents of every dollar of revenue into capex. Alphabet spent $9 billion more than it took in, its second negative quarter in a row, and this morning its stock fell 12%. If it closes down more than 9.77%, it will be its worst day after earnings since going public in 2004.
The detail that worries me most is in Google's search numbers. Search ads grew 12% and still missed expectations. Philipp Schindler, Alphabet's chief business officer, said part of the reason is that AI Mode makes less money per search. So Google is spending record sums to build a product that earns less than the one it replaces.
For twenty years these were the best businesses ever invented. You wrote the code once, sold it to billions of people, and almost every new dollar of revenue fell to the bottom line. AI doesn't work like that. Every answer runs on a chip someone had to buy and on electricity someone has to pay for. Big Tech is turning into something closer to a utility: huge upfront costs, long paybacks, and profits that depend on keeping the machines full.
That can still be a great business. But it is a different business, and investors are only starting to price it that way.
The old moat was code. The new one is cash. |
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10-30-26 savo
a few days ago we had a conversation about real physical gold stored in secured vaults in secured locations vs futures
Futures and Crypto are human fabrications and as every human fabrication can be replicated... real physical gold predates earth.. can not be formed in earth or in the sun...
that does not make it valuable... but at list does make it un-hakable
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10-30-26 victor
Binance Suspends Transactions as It Probes What May Be Biggest-Ever Crypto Heist
Crypto exchange says users will be made whole, but hackers appear to have made off with at least $3 billion—and possibly more, analysts said |
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10-30-26 victor
Musk Warns “Everyday Is Zeroday” As Rumors Swirl On News Of A Massive, $5.7 Billion Binance Hack
Elon Musk fired off two cryptic words as reports of a staggering Binance breach sent crypto markets into freefall, with estimates of the damage ranging so wildly that nobody yet knows how bad it actually is.
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10-30-26 spal
| Concerning Cuba - while placing battle-tested, U.S.-aligned partner forces in Haiti establishes a flexible security presence in the Northern Caribbean, its main utility for Washington is containment and burden-sharing—keeping the Caribbean's near-abroad stabilized and preventing maritime migration surges—rather than serving as a direct tactical stepping stone for military operations against Havana. |
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10-30-26 spal
The flight surge into Toussaint Louverture International Airport is supported by U.S. Air Force/USTRANSCOM charter logistics and regional contractor staging.
This deployment represents a major evolution in Western Hemisphere security architecture. Rather than relying on traditional UN blue-helmets or direct U.S. military intervention, the Caribbean is witnessing the private-and-state-assisted export of a Global South security model.
Bukele’s operation is unilateral in command, but U.S.-enabled in infrastructure.
While Bukele takes political ownership and provides the infantry, USSOUTHCOM provides the air mobility, SOCSOUTH provides intelligence-sharing channels, the State Department provides diplomatic backstops, and private contractors supply technical asset integration.
Rather than sending cash to San Salvador, the U.S. Department of Defense and State Department utilize Foreign Military Sales (FMS) credits and Section 333 (Global Train and Equip) defense funds.
U.S. Air Mobility Command charters (C-130s/C-17s) cover the expensive air bridge between San Salvador and Port-au-Prince, keeping El Salvador's direct transport outlays low.
For El Salvador - UN Rate-Per-Troop Reimbursements Standard UN/multilateral peacekeeping protocols pay fixed monthly rates per deployed soldier (typically ~$1,400 to $1,800 USD per troop/month) plus equipment usage fees.
President Bukele’s statement that El Salvador pays "90% of the expenses" is an operational accounting framing: El Salvador pays the immediate local personnel costs, but the United States supplies the airlift and hardware, while UN trust funds and U.S. military assistance channels are structured to reimburse San Salvador over time.
Far from a financial drain, the deployment functions as a self-sustaining security export that upgrades El Salvador's military readiness at international expense.
Bukele - ahead of the game here.
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10-30-26 spal
El Salvador President Bukele Sends Troops to Haiti to Deal with Violent Gangs. His Letter to the Haitian Citizenry Follows:
Haitian people,
We have nearly finished deploying our soldiers and equipment on Haitian soil. This is not an operation against the Haitian people, nor an invasion of the country of Haiti. We are not a great power. We have no interest in coming to dominate the Haitian people, nor in laying hands on Haiti's wealth.
We are a modest country that is developing. The only thing we want is for our four aviation technicians to return home. And we're giving the gangs a lesson—these gangs that make the Haitian people suffer, that kill people the population loves, that prevent them from living a normal, free life, without fear.
It's almost just us footing the bill for this operation. Even though we receive a bit of logistical help from a few other countries, it's with our own modest funds that we're covering 90% of the expenses.
It costs us dearly, but we've learned from our own suffering: justice and peace have no price. We went through the same suffering that Haiti is going through today. We lived through a nightmare that was even more horrific than what the Haitian people are enduring right now. We know what that means: living in fear, not trusting politicians, not believing anyone who promises to help you. Because no one came to help us, and those who did come didn't have good intentions in their hearts.
But we managed to escape it. After 200 years of suffering, finally we're living in peace, and today we are the safest country on the continent.
We didn't come to Haiti to make money, because no one is paying us to do it. We came to Haiti to fight against the wicked.
But here's what I'm asking of you: trust us, pray to the one true God, and ask Him to heal Haiti.
"If at that time my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, where I am, I will forgive their sin, and I will heal their land."
2 Chronicles 7:14
Help us help Haiti.
And when our mission is finished, we'll return home. Perhaps the next generation of Haitians will remember us as friends who came to help one day.
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10-30-26 spal
| More Salvadoran soldiers arriving in Haiti's capital today. Reports indicate the immediate goal of Bukele is to create a detachment of 5000 Salvadoran troops including two specials forces units and at least two more helicopter squadrons. |
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