10-05-26 victor
El Gobierno aprobará mañana medidas sobre vivienda que ya no requerirán del voto de Junts
“Disolvemos para hacer políticas de vivienda. Las que podamos hacer ya, las haremos”, advierten fuentes de la Moncloa a La Vanguardia. Este lunes, el Consejo de Ministros extraordinario convocado de urgencia por Pedro Sánchez aprueba el adelanto electoral para el próximo 29 de noviembre que ha anunciado el presidente del Gobierno, y la disolución de las Cortes Generales de esta legislatura. Pero la previsión es que el Consejo de Ministros ordinario que se volverá a reunir mañana aprobará, en todo o en parte, los reales decretos ley que el Congreso tumbó el pasado viernes, con los votos del PP, Vox, UPN y Junts.
La diferencia, no obstante, es que, una vez disueltas las Cortes, se activa en el Congreso la diputación permanente, donde operan mayorías distintas a las del pleno en las que eran imprescindibles los siete votos de Junts para que el Gobierno sumara una mayoría absoluta con los grupos de la investidura. Para que la diputación permanente del Congreso convalide las medidas sobre vivienda que volverá a aprobar mañana el Consejo de Ministros ya no serán imprescindibles los votos de la formación de Carles Puigdemont.
|
|
10-05-26 victor
savo, right.. now sanchez has to pray that P doesn't return before 11/29.
|
|
10-05-26 victor
|
10-05-26 savo
|
10-05-26 victor
| carib, savo, sanchez just said elections on nov 29 |
|
10-05-26 spal
By convincing two generations of bond investors that fiscal deficits are inherently deflationary, Hunt enabled the very environment of unchecked sovereign debt issuance that eventually broke his own model.
Oh well. I never liked excess reserves - the moment Libor died the end game was set. |
|
10-04-26 spal
The key difference is that Gromen, Napier, and Alden view this (the coming financial repression) as a deliberate or mathematically forced policy choice (Financial Repression / Fiscal Dominance) to burn off sovereign debt.
Lacy Hunt views it primarily as a structural breakdown in the global production function where capital scarcity, labor shortages, and Federal Reserve policy errors have broken the disinflationary architecture of the last 30 years.
My view is that Hunt got it wrong. |
|
10-04-26 spal
Merlino - apparently Lacy Hunt traditionally sitsat the exact opposite extreme of macro strategists like Luke Gromen, Russell Napier, Zoltan Pozsar, and Lynn Alden.
However, his recent, historic pivot brings him much closer to their structural conclusions, even if his underlying economic philosophy remains distinct. |
|
10-04-26 spal
| Merlino - 3-3.5% inflation - so go with Hunt. As such the Fed needs to cut the short end and implement some kind of yield control by hook or by crook. Or default ... |
|
10-04-26 Merlino
However, as structural inflation settles at 3% to 4%+
.........................
Spal, is this the range of (official) inflation you estimate the US will have next 15 years or so?
(Respected) Lacy Hunt/Hoisington estimate a range of 3.5-4.5%
If 10-30 years gov bonds continue to be above this range how will financial repression happen? Just on Bills and short duration treasuries? |
|
10-04-26 panasonic
| Bolsonaro ahead in first round...stay tuned. |
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, the irony is the kind of support orriols receives.. from people who should hate her. an example:
Manuel Llamas supports and admires orriols!
he worked for ayuso!
2021
Manuel Llamas será el nuevo viceconsejero de Economía de la Comunidad de Madrid. Este nombramiento se sucede después de que la presidencia regional, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, haya reorganizado el Consejo de Gobierno autonómico
//
here is llamas 5 years later, expressing his admiration for orriols:
manuel llamas
Si queréis saber por qué Junts ha votado hoy en contra del decreto Mari Carmen, os recomiendo este vídeo
Os presento a Silvia Orriols, la pesadilla de Puigdemont, la tumba política de Junts… La futura presidenta de la Generalidad de Cataluña
https://x.com/manuel_llamas/status/2106103617597964349
Oct 2, 2026
|
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, AC is xenophobia all the way to the stretch.. against spaniards, against muslims, etc.
pilar losantos is from the press, appears in Telemadrid.
this is her reaction to today's lv poll.
//
Pilar Losantos
Lamento recalcar lo obvio, pero Silvia Orriols odia al islamismo radical tanto como a los españoles. La fascinación por ella como figura política es ridícula para cualquier constitucionalista que no crea en la raza superior de los ocho apellidos catalanes. Y ya la obnubilación de un españolito de a pie de fuera de Cataluña es directamente de frenopático: le repugnamos. Un poco de amor propio.
Oct 4, 2026
https://x.com/pirlosantos/status/2106770622520930565
|
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, AC (like Vox) is aligned with AfD.
and not with meloni, etc. |
|
10-04-26 victor
| carib, orriols, alianza cat. the far right. |
|
10-04-26 carib
|
10-04-26 victor
| AC from 2 right now to 30 !! |
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, something else that really favors the rightwing to govern for the next X years:
AC vs junts.
as you know several spanish govts have been formed thanks to ciu, now junts..
but in the past there was no AC taking votes away from junts from the right. so junts was free to move from supporting the PP or PSOE, and being the key to the investiture of such..
the last one: sanchez.. he's PM thanks to junts.
suppose next elections provide exact same outcome as 2023, miriam would have no choice but to vote NO to sanchez' investiture.
because of AC, junts has no choice but to move to the right, to stop the bleeding of votes.
every poll shows AC stronger, and junts weaker. last poll today's lv:
//
El avance de la ultraderecha y la caída del PSC dibujan una Catalunya ingobernable
PSC 30
AC 30
ERC 23
VOX 18
JUNTS 16 (down from 35 right now!!)
PP 11
PODEMOS 4
CUP 3
|
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, it's unchartered territory..
but my guess is abascal becomes next vp. |
|
10-04-26 carib
| Victor: you imply it will be easy to govern with Vox? |
|
10-04-26 victor
savo, and there's something else going against sanchez, and the clock is ticking on this:
the return of puigdemont.
the path has been almost cleared for his return, and is expected to do so in the near future.
sanchez was hoping that he would return AFTER elections, by trying to delay his return process as much as possible.
but apparently the timing isn't helping sanchez..
again, because of the judges.
if P returns before elections, that's even more people pissed off at sanchez- voting against sanchez.
so that's an argument for having elections ASAP. |
|
10-04-26 victor
savo, she was forced out because the judges, which includes the Supremo, refused to help her.
so it wasn't sanchez's doing, but the judges's.
//
Tribunal Supremo y Tribunal Constitucional
La defensa de Maricarmen interpuso recursos de casación y de amparo respectivamente, pero ambos fueron inadmitidos, dejando firme la orden de lanzamiento. |
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, the same would apply. :-)
when was the last time psoe+podemos+sumar had more seats than pp+vox? |
|
10-04-26 carib
| Victor: I wrote "RELATIVE majority, not absolute. |
|
10-04-26 savo
victor... the famous Maricarmen ..was evicted by the national police who works under Sanchez under judicial order...
All this was noise
I do not see why Sanchez will advanced elections heving one more year in power. He can argue he tried. |
|
10-04-26 victor
:-))
Rosa Díez, sobre si Pedro Sánchez adelantará las elecciones: «No lo hará. El horizonte penal de su mujer y el suyo le atan a la Moncloa»
La exmiembro del PSOE y líder histórico de UPyD ha cargado duramente contra el presidente del Gobierno |
|
10-04-26 victor
carib, "the left" will fail to win a relative majority
//
when was the last time that the spanish left (psoe, podemos, sumar) had abs maj?
i believe it's decades ago, with felipe g. :-))
since decades, they have been able to put together govts only by cutting deals with the regional parties. |
|
10-04-26 savo
spal...Iran can not stay at the table much longer
we heard that before... Vietnam... Afghanistan..etc...
and yet they did... much much longer... |
|
Board
