05-11-26 savo
one simple thing... DT does not give a damn about Iran... the middle east or iran's nuclear enrichment... all they want is to make money for themselves, their sponsors their friends and their families...
and now the DOJ will investigate as if there is a rule of law in the US and will end it with a slap on the wrist... no admission of guilt and a fine equivalent to 1% of the money they made.
that is who things work in the land of the crooks. |
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05-11-26 savo
There’s no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet.
As a reminder Bob Kagan is:
- The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat)
- A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself...
- The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today)
- The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge
In other words, we ain’t exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk.
And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat).
So when HE writes that the U.S. “suffered a total defeat” in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” it’s the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers aren’t great: it means the burgers really, really aren't great.
Extraordinarily (and somewhat worryingly, for me), his arguments for why this is such a defeat are virtually the same as those I laid out in my article “The First Multipolar War” last month (https://open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbertrand/p/the-first-multipolar-war?r=4r0pw&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%20viewer).
Here they are 👇
1) Vietnam/Afghanistan were survivable, this isn't
He agrees that this war - and the U.S. defeat - is fundamentally different in nature from previous U.S. interventions.
Where I wrote that the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan didn’t change the equation much in terms of power dynamics (“in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego”), Kagan writes that “the defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America's overall position in the world.”
And when I wrote that “it’s painfully obvious that the Iran war is of a qualitatively different nature” from these, he writes that “defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character.”
Same point.
2) Iran will never relinquish Hormuz and uses it as selective leverage
When I wrote that Iran has turned “freedom of navigation” on its head by establishing “a permission-based regime” through the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan arrives at the same conclusion: “Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.”
He also agrees that “Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante,” when I myself cited Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf in my article, saying: “The Strait of Hormuz situation won’t return to its pre-war status.” Same point and virtually the same words.
3) Gulf states will have to accommodate Iran
He agrees that most Gulf states will have no choice but to accommodate Iran, effectively making Iran into a, if not THE, dominant regional power.
Kagan writes “the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran.”
On my end, I wrote that “the Gulf monarchies will eventually have to choose between two security propositions. One where they stay aligned with a distant superpower that [can’t protect them]. The other proposition being: make peace with the regional power that just proved it can hit [them] whenever it wants.” Which is not much of a choice…
4) Military impossibility to reopen Hormuz
Kagan writes that “if the United States with its mighty Navy can't or won't open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans' capability will be able to, either.”
On my end, in my article I cited Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius: “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful US Navy cannot?”
The exact same argument.
5) Global chain reaction
Kagan agrees that this is a global strategic failure that fundamentally changes the U.S.’s position in the world. As he puts it: “America's once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties… America's allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.”
You’ll have guessed it, I wrote essentially the same thing: “Think about what it says if you’re Saudi Arabia, quietly watching your American-built defenses fail to protect your own refineries. Or any European country now facing the worst energy shock since 1973, caused not by your enemy but by your ally, and realizing that said ‘ally,’ supposedly in charge of ‘protecting’ you, couldn’t even protect Israel’s most strategic sites - when it’s the country with which it’s joined at the hip. I’m not even speaking about China or Russia who are seeing their worldview being validated on almost every axis simultaneously.”
6) Weapons stocks depleted, credibility shattered
Kagan: “just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.”
Me: “America’s most advanced weapons systems are much more vulnerable than previously thought - not theoretically, but in actual combat.”
Kagan: “America's allies… must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.”
Me: “The U.S. security guarantee has been empirically falsified in real time.”
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So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower 🤢
Reassuringly though, we still differ on a few fundamental aspects.
First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war - not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For him, this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people don’t figure in his mental map.
For me, the moral bankruptcy of this war isn't separate from the strategic failure - it is the strategic failure. Much like Gaza can only be a failure because of its sheer abjectness.
Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has “checkmated” America.
I know introspection has never been the neocon forte but at some point you have to stop setting houses on fire and then writing op-eds about how surprising the smoke is.
Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kagan’s article - showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a “checkmate” by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” yet an the other hand his solution for it is… surprise, surprise… a bigger war still!
He writes that what’s to be done is “engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.”
The arsonist's solution to the fire is a bigger fire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
For my end, this was the conclusion of my previous article:
"There is almost a Greek tragedy quality to U.S. actions lately where every move taken to escape one’s fate becomes the mechanism that delivers it. The U.S. went to war to reassert dominance - and proved it could no longer dominate. It demanded allies send warships - and revealed it had no real allies. It waged forty years of maximum pressure to break Iran before this moment came - and instead forged the very adversary now capable of meeting it. It started the war in part to have additional leverage over China - and handed the world the spectacle of begging China for help. The prophecy was multipolarity. Every American action to prevent it reveals it instead."
I wouldn’t change a word. The only thing that's changed since I wrote it is that even the arsonists now smell the smoke.
Src for the Atlantic article: https://theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/iran-war-trump-losing/687094/ |
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05-11-26 savo
The geopolitical reality is that Russia cannot continue the war given its military limits, the state of the economy and the emerging opposition to Putin.
who writes all these nonsense...??
Not only Putin can last as long as he wants but he is being instrumental in turning the US war with Iran into another fiasco
Putin expands world’s largest drone factory as it ramps up exports to Iran
Satellite images show new hangars at manufacturing hub as Moscow and Tehran share weapons and know-how
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/05/11/putin-expands-worlds-largest-drone-factory/ |
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05-11-26 carib
| Everspin stock (MRAM) having a good week.. |
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05-11-26 panasonic
Any opinions on "Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta"?
Have an IPO soon. |
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05-11-26 carib
| Spaldo: great idea, if Putin is replaced by a good solid liberal government giving up on imperial ambitions. |
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05-11-26 pillz
| I have no problem , I pay everything with my cards, I never have cash .. already years ... |
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05-11-26 spaldo
https://x.com/george_friedman/status/2053826456719929851?s=46
….The geopolitical reality is that Russia cannot continue the war given its military limits, the state of the economy and the emerging opposition to Putin. At the same time, the relationship between Europe (specifically, NATO) and the U.S. has deteriorated to a point where a new geopolitical system must emerge. Russia’s becoming, to whatever degree, a part of the European system would give Europe access to Russian natural resources and would give Russia access to European capital. What is clear is that Putin has little choice but to seek an end to the war on the best terms he can get, which necessarily involves Europe…..
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05-11-26 carib
Savo: jokes apart: if you have no EU source income, and spend less than 6 months a year in the EU, what is the problem you fear?
Within the EU itself.. there is tax competition, competition in attracting HNWIs, and competition in offering privacy. |
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05-11-26 panasonic
| I have no doubt AI will change the landscape of political off-record activities. |
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05-11-26 panasonic
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05-11-26 spal
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05-11-26 carib
Savo: the Vatican city?
;~) |
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05-11-26 carib
| SPAL: the purpose of free electronic transfers is precisely to gather data. It is a deliberate policy to induce people to prefer electronic cash to paper cash. Governments have no interest in slowing the speed of circulation of money but rather the opposite. The hidden tax on money.. is called INFLATION. |
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05-11-26 savo
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05-11-26 savo
pana/carib... where could we go to stay away from EU AI control of out lives?
Uruguay yes for now
Andorra?
CH?
Caribbean?
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05-11-26 spal
| Schpal looks at MU shares and then with a sigh and a shrug goes back to his O&G cucarachas. |
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05-11-26 spal
| Yeah - let's see if it is sustained. But any amount is frictional. They also use the information. I do as well. There are tradeoffs. But I am certain that banks and credit card companies are the ones pushing for a cashless economy. I guess we can also say we collectively save labor. Again there are tradeoffs. |
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05-11-26 carib
| SPAL: actually, in Europe, the cost of electronic transfers is tending towards zero, by deliberate regulation. |
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05-11-26 carib
Panas: as far as I know, it is the first time in 250 years a sitting US president (and family) makes billions whilst in office.
Insider trading is by definition a very easy task. |
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05-11-26 spal
it is more control on our lives..
===
As soon as they can - they will increase the cost of transferring money electronically. |
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05-11-26 panasonic
Carib, his privacy is over, "comes with the job" as he would say.
He has the money to continue with his life after W/H.
Me refer to those that arrive to public service with $100K in the bank, me ok with additional controls as long as the trap works on them, AI will check all contracts, bank/crypto movements, and yes, also cash. |
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05-11-26 carib
| Panas: Trump case proves the "trap" does not apply to those in real power.. |
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05-11-26 panasonic
"it is more control on our lives"
As long as politicians can't escape their own trap, I'm ok.
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05-11-26 carib
Savo: true, but our smartphones, surveillance cameras and AI already do that..
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05-11-26 carib
| Savo: true, but our smartphones, surveillance cameras and AI already do that.. |
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05-11-26 carib
PS: I remember when I was in Brasil and unable to open a local bank account, I paid a new car in cash (that I got from my "doleiro"). the car shop owner did not show any surprise...
The issue was not crime or tax evasion, but just bureaucratic red tape and a non fully convertible currency.. |
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05-11-26 savo
| it is more control on our lives.. |
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05-11-26 carib
Savo: cash payments above a certain amount have already been "illegal" in several european countries for many years. In practice, cash transfers between consenting adults have continued to happen, and have no consequences unless it's a "sting operation". But depositing large amounts of cash into bank accounts require proof of origin. How many times in your life did you make a cash payment for large amounts which were not germane to tax evasion by one of the parties? I guess very few, so life goes on unchanged for 99% of people.
Cryptos offer an alternative, if stored in "cold wallets" and cashed in offshore centres that do not track.
The USA remain an active "launderette", BTW. |
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05-11-26 savo
Starting July 2027 cash payments above €10,000 are illegal across all 27 EU member states.
Every transaction above €3,000 requires ID. Splitting payments to avoid the cap is also illegal. Crypto is government verified. The digital euro pilot starts the same year. Fully traceable. Issued and monitored by the central bank.
They say it is about money laundering. It is always about control.
https://x.com/meeswynants/status/2053536443029443040?s=48&t=JHX4_bRzg43q7__yG__aUw |
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05-11-26 savo
bloodthirsty NetanDracula delighted at this opportunity to bomb schools, nursing homes, hospitals and civilian infrastructure... and in the process assassinate a few government officials and a few thousand civilians.
Let's see what the old fool says. |
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05-11-26 spal
Israel has submitted to the US a plan for new strikes on Iran lasting one to two weeks with possible extension ... including the assassination of IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi ... and other senior IRGC commanders, per a source from the Israeli Ministry of Defense. This was also part of the substance in today's urgent Netanyahu-Trump call.
No surprises here. |
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05-10-26 savo
the merry round started again... buy futures... DT says unacceptable.. oil up... in a few days.. take profit and sell futures... DT says deal close... take profit...and so on so forth...
how many time have they done the round trip already and made a few hundred millions in the process?
Meanwhile the usual DoJ farce to make people believe in the US there are laws.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/doj-probes-oil-prediction-markets-iran-news-rcna344135 |
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05-10-26 savo
| everybody is paid by somebody else... |
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05-10-26 carib
| Spaldo: With Schroeder representing his paymaster, Putin, I guess? |
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