08-13-26 carib
The US has paid the highest borrowing costs to sell 30-year bonds since 2001 as investors fret over the country’s mounting debt pile under Donald Trump’s administration as well as inflation that remains stubbornly high.
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08-13-26 carib
| Savo: sanctions, together with military might, are the tools of a "protectorate". They can be removed one day.. and re-instated the next. Welcome to Trump's moods.. |
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08-13-26 spal
JOB
GEE GROUP INC
0.226 (+11.98%)
A taste - there should be more a some point
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08-13-26 Merlino
The strategy built by Rubio which i think was ok is not working
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About three or four months ago I have read a comment that in a meeting held at Air Force One Trump indicated to Rubio "to slow down on Veni". At the time it was all the fury about Veni. Perhaps the comment was true. Perhaps USA wants to control Veni´s oil as a strategic reserve below ground, not above it. Who knows. |
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08-13-26 savo
in any case that is all speculation.. the reality is that investments are not happening... without investments there is no future cashflow to pay a debt restructuring.... that is being perceived by the market and bonds are stuck at 25% of claim.
The strategy built by Rubio which i think was ok is not working. In my opinion because of sanctions and licenses.
Another view could be that Oils prefer to wait for an elected government to be in place.
If veni is a US protectorate as carib says, OFAC's page should be in blank.
You do not sanction someone you are "protecting".
Otherwise who protects you from your protectors?
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08-13-26 savo
once bitten, twice shy..
that is true... but all that happens is that they incorporate the country risk in the expected rate of return... and if things get difficult negotiate with the guys in charge... sometimes they win sometimes they lose.. as long as they win over all their investments in the world it is ok.
OFAC is a different animal... it interferes with the day to day of the business; payments, imports, exports, bank accounts, deposits...etc...
I am not an entrepreneur..but i would not invest under OFAC licenses which are there today and can be modified tomorrow. |
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08-13-26 spal
GCUMF
GUNNISON COPPER CORP
0.3230 (+7.24%)
0.32
Copper miner transitioning from developer to producer. Stalking horse for Rio Tinto in reality. |
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08-13-26 carib
| Savo: once bitten, twice shy.. |
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08-13-26 spal
GCUMF
GUNNISON COPPER CORP
Back in the zone of possibilities ... positioned. |
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08-13-26 spal
| UMH ... adding ... obeying orders |
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08-13-26 spal
JOB
GEE GROUP INC
Binary outcome - trading below book. M&A committee in place with strategic options being considered.
Increased position. |
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08-13-26 savo
big oils have been operating in unstable countries for more than a century.... they can deal with that... they know how to deal with new governments with weird ideas... dictators...
What they can not deal with is OFAC, sanctions and licenses.
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08-13-26 carib
The issue of Veny oil taxes is a double hedged sword.. we, sov creditors, are ultimately going to be paid with money coming from taxes..
Oil companies need long term visibility, because heavy investment amortises over a long period of time, so, the proposed taxes must be reasonable, and expected to remain reasonable for the duration of the project..
A form of long term de facto protectorate might be conductive of foreign investment.. |
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08-13-26 leopardo
| Sept-Dec crucial months for Vnz-Pdvsa bondholders… |
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08-13-26 Merlino
| Savo, true, at least not large amounts. Let´s hope they (USA) realize this and act accordingly as they do not actually need the current system of licenses & sanctions to control the country (imho) |
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08-13-26 savo
| investors do not invest in a country with sanctions and licenses. Even at 0% tax. |
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08-13-26 carib
| Merlino: agreed. I guess oil investors need lower taxes and a reliable long term legal and regulatory framework. |
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08-13-26 Merlino
Carib, the overall situation is essentially at a standstill right now... progressing far too slowly... let's hope it breaks out of this rut and regains the momentum it had right after January 3
https://www.eluniversal.com/el-universal/239111/por-que-no-arranca-el-negocio-petrolero |
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08-13-26 carib
Merlino: I guess before elections can take place, they need to change the whole electoral council, review fairly the voters list, starting from the diaspora, and agree on external supervision. This inevitably will take time.
Question is: will they make an offer to restructure bonded debt this fall, before "transition"? |
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08-13-26 Merlino
La Asamblea Nacional electa en 2015 y el gobierno venezolano acordaron este miércoles impulsar la renovación de todos los magistrados del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia (TSJ)
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It looks that as predictable they are looking to nominate new members to the TSJ |
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08-13-26 Merlino
La mesa de negociación, tutelada por Estados Unidos, volverá a reunirse a mediados de septiembre
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Hmmmmm...they do not look to be in a hurry |
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08-13-26 carib
El chavismo y la oposición venezolana acuerdan renovar a todos los magistrados del Supremo
La mesa de negociación, tutelada por Estados Unidos, volverá a reunirse a mediados de septiembre |
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08-13-26 carib
Savo: it is self evident that I hold the opposite political view than the chavistas.
But, as creditors, the only relevant issue is getting paid. If in a lump sum, we can then disregard the future of the debtor. If with new bonds, we want a prosperous and well managed debtor, I guess. |
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08-13-26 spal
Savo - on the clip posted. Sachs argues essentially that democracy is dead, we live already in tech feudalism essentially.
I do know that the degrees of freedom of the average person expanded briefly last century, but I am not sure I'd call that the permanent or a natural state, although there is apparently already much nostalgia and a feeling that this is threatened now.
That said I think that there are always threats and certainly western enlightenment values are under pressure now - some of this is natural in a "catch up" round as technology and economic development in the global south kicks in putting pressure on the West.
How tech platforms and the tech stack is managed is for sure a major political issue of our age. |
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08-12-26 savo
carib... you were the one saying: free return in security of political exiles
that is a very strong political statement
to which i responded that those political exiles costed the country 1 trn dollars at least...
you of course are entitled to disagree... but if you start a conversation with such a controversial statement accept that other people may think differently... it is part of the conversation. |
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08-12-26 spal
had a good opinion of Jeffrey Sachs in the 90s.. but later on I had the impression he went nuts.
I never met him personally.. so it's just an impression from far away.
===
Carib - I had the exact same impression - his early career (advising places like Bolivia) was very impressive. But later on as I caught snippets of his interviews etc he seem more and more strident, frustrated and angry in a kind of sanctimonious way. Like you Carib, just an impression. |
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08-12-26 carib
| PS: on the issue some individuals became insanely wealthy in the USA in the current century.. that is just a fact. I tend to think they have way too much power now. |
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08-12-26 carib
I had a good opinion of Jeffrey Sachs in the 90s.. but later on I had the impression he went nuts.
I never met him personally.. so it's just an impression from far away.
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08-12-26 carib
Savo: again... no agreement, even on facts.
The crash of PDVsa was due to chavista political meddling and graft on massive scale, not to the decisions of AN 2015.
The US sanctions certainly made life difficult for Venezuela, but they were the consequence of standing with the wrong allies in a certain part of the world.
They would not have been introduced if Veny had remained very neutral.. and run like Norway.
;-)
The key point, however, is that none of that, or the opposite theory you propose are now relevant for us.
What is relevant is how to make Veny wealthy again and attractive for the diaspora with brains and dollars to get back home and rebuild their country.. so we can get PAID.
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08-12-26 savo
carib.. spal... would like to hear your opinions...
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QGYmQgB_meY |
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08-12-26 savo
on top what Guaido and Co stole from Citgo, etc... they also costed 2 mm barrel exports per annum, and 10 years of underinvestment in various other exporting sectors...
I would say that is a least a trillion... i doubt Maduro and Co has that money in their offshore accounts
They can return to veni if they like... to be hang from a lamp post. |
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08-12-26 carib
In essence.. Chavismo transformed a rich country into a poor one, with a cumulated "cost" well in excess of one trillion dollars, over time.
If Vecchio, Guaido' &c over time squandered some millions from Monomeros, Citgo, US funds or what else.. the latter figures pale when compared to the former.
As creditors, we care directly about neither, but just care about the debtor becoming rich again, in order to pay what it owes.
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08-12-26 carib
Venezuela’s Kafkaesque restructuring just got messier, as a new ruling throws FX-control damages into the mix.
The universe of Venezuelan external debt claims is well-populated, including arbitration claims filed by foreign investors concerning Bolivarian-era economic policies. Many were triggered by the expropriation of assets, while others arose from arbitrary regulations and, in some cases, breaches of contract.
As a result, Venezuela is already among the countries with the highest number of cases as a respondent state before ICSID, the World Bank’s arbitration center, with 57 cases. Of these, 50 have been decided and seven are still pending. In 21 cases, arbitration tribunals have rendered awards against the Republic, 19 of them based on policies implemented before 2002. |
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08-12-26 carib
| Savo: let us just conclude, as usual.. that we disagree even on numbers. |
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08-12-26 savo
the whole chavista "cupola" would have to answer for pilfering tens of billions of public funds.
i do not know the exact numbers but Guaido & Co costed veni 10 years of investment and 2 mm barrels of exports per annum... i guess that is more than the foreign bank accounts of Maduro & Co. |
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08-12-26 leopardo
The outcome must and will be friendly, orherwise
It will be blocked. |
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08-12-26 carib
| SPAL: for me interest and capital gains are tax free, but not US dividends.. |
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08-12-26 spal
Carib - yes. Individual circumstances differ.
Obviously I trade them tax free.
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08-12-26 carib
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08-12-26 carib
SPAL: thanks.
I do not like US high dividend stocks.. because of 30% WHT. |
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08-12-26 leopardo
Prices will grow as soon as real negotiations take place
IMHO |
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08-12-26 carib
Leo: would prefer friendly to.. nothing.
Prices, however, still imply a 25% (of claim) recovery. |
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08-12-26 spal
UMH
UMH PPTYS INC REIT
Spec position on - Erez (activist) will try to put this into play. They have done it before. Mobile homes - 95% occupancy and rents tightening. Controlled by the Landy family. Asset value c.23. |
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08-12-26 spal
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08-12-26 spal
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08-12-26 spal
| Small AU miners and streamers on the move |
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08-12-26 leopardo
Yes Carib but it will be market friendly.
Bondholders committee has ammassed 50% of all Pdvsa/vnz holding, can block unfriendly restrucyurin.
Sooo it will be: friendly or nothing. |
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08-12-26 carib
| Merlino: true. In any case the restructuring will be a US decision. |
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08-12-26 Merlino
...if the Rodrigato will move forward under US guidance with a debt restructuring before the political transition. Big IF.
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My guess is USA has enough decisional power to impose her will either to the Rodrigato or to the opposition, including mcm ...thus either now or in the future restructuring will basically be a USA decision ... then my second guess is USA credit holders do not want to unnecessarily delay this matter |
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08-12-26 carib
| I guess the actual Veny question is if the Rodrigato will move forward under US guidance with a debt restructuring before the political transition. Big IF. |
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08-12-26 carib
Savo: and the whole chavista "cupola" would have to answer for pilfering tens of billions of public funds..
AN 2015 in comparison is peanuts.. |
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08-12-26 savo
El presidente ruso, Vladímir Putin, ha advertido este miércoles en su visita a un portamisiles de la Flota del Pacífico de la Armada Rusa, que su país responderá "simétricamente" a la confiscación de buques de su flota fantasma por parte de la Unión Europea y Occidente, allí donde considere necesario hacerlo. Así, Putin pone el foco en las medidas tomadas recientemente por la UE.
"Estaremos obligados a responder simétricamente". Y no solo en los mismos mares en los que planifican sus ataques, sino donde nosotros lo consideremos necesario y oportuno, en cualquier lado, incluyendo la zona de responsabilidad de la Flota del Pacífico", alertó Putin. Según el presidente ruso, hay gobiernos que vulneran el derecho marítimo internacional y "buscan limitar el movimiento de los buques de nuestros operadores económicos", buques que, señala, son civiles.
Asimismo aseveró que "recientemente se les ocurrió la idea de requisar nuestros buques y vender los bienes robados, lo cual no es más que piratería y saqueo". En respuesta a estas declaraciones, el comandante de la Flota del Pacífico, almirante Víktor Líina, afirmó que Rusia "cuenta con fuerzas para detener buques de los países inamistosos (...) Estamos listos para comenzar el cumplimiento de dichas misiones".
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08-12-26 savo
free return in security of political exiles
mmmmmmmm
vecchio, borges, guaido, and the rest of that group should account first for all the money stolen from citgo and USaid. |
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08-12-26 savo
one will need a new impartial electoral council, liberation of remaining political prisoner,
all of that |
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08-12-26 leopardo
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08-12-26 leopardo
| September-December crucial months for Vnz dentro restructuring |
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08-12-26 carib
Personally, I do not think an IMF package is required.
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08-12-26 carib
well before elections.. one will need a new impartial electoral council, liberation of remaining political prisoner, free return in security of political exiles, IMHO.
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08-12-26 savo
IMHO the order of things is the following
1) Blanc page at veni's ofac (as long as there are sanctions plus licenses which can be revoked there will not be new investments)
2) debt restructuring of bonded debt
3) oil contracts with big oils
4) increase production
5) elections |
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08-12-26 carib
| all opinions, in the absence of news.. |
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08-12-26 savo
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08-12-26 carib
The announcement of the debt restructuring was more of a gimmick to gain time—one of chavismo’s true gifts—by the Rodrigato to appease both the US and the naive bondholders who helped to put her in power. But, once again, there are no shortcuts to any meaningful change in the country’s economy that do not involve the now dreaded T-word: “transition.”
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2026/08/11/the-odyssey-of-renegotiating-venezuelas-external-debt/ |
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