06-27-26 leopardo
We shall see Carib.
This time I’m willing to see the cards of Centerview and the venz gov with
my position.
They will start being aggressive but then creditors will Gain Ground imho
Vnz Gdp might double in a few years this will have to be takes into consideration |
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06-27-26 victor
Rep. María Elvira Salazar
La magnitud de la tragedia en Venezuela deja una verdad imposible de ignorar: la ayuda de emergencia es solo el primer paso. Recuperar un país devastado exigirá liderazgo, compromiso y los recursos necesarios para salir adelante.
Por eso necesitamos aprobar la Ley PANA. Es la herramienta para asegurar que Venezuela cuente con los recursos necesarios para reconstruir hospitales, escuelas, carreteras, viviendas y toda la infraestructura que hoy ha quedado destruida.
Estados Unidos debe liderar no solo la respuesta inmediata, sino también la recuperación de Venezuela. |
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06-27-26 carib
Leo: it's premature to speculate.
Currently, bonds are trading around 25% of claim.
If they offered a package worth 40% of claim on the market, it would be good, IMHO.
Something nominally worth 40%, but trading at 25% or less would not be good.
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06-27-26 leopardo
| Of course the new bonds will not trade at par.. |
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06-27-26 leopardo
40% claim
60% of claim haircutted
New bonds plus warrants |
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06-27-26 leopardo
| Yes I mean the first option 40% Npv plus warrants |
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06-27-26 carib
LEO: NPV 40% of claim would be very good, in particular if there ADDITIONAL warrants.
40% of nominal claim, with new low yield bonds, vould mean recovery inferior to recent highs. Not good.
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06-27-26 leopardo
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06-27-26 leopardo
My feeling Carib but even so recovery light be decent…
They will add oil / gdp warrants |
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06-27-26 carib
Leo: hunch.. or actual news?
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06-27-26 spal
We shall see what they plan to give in exchange …
... Pirulin, Cocosette, and Torontos
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06-27-26 leopardo
Centerview likely to propose great haircut 60%+ on vnz Pdvsa debt.
We shall see what they plan to give in exchange… |
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06-26-26 panasonic
| Cash now near 40% but will lock some fixed income before midterms. |
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06-26-26 panasonic
Spal, me got washed in Mag7 calls, stopped re-rolling till have more visibility.
Opened call on IGV for December, software should bounce back at some point in coming months.
Gold still rolling calls.
Oil stopped.
Day trade results better than expected, volatility is my friend, added spcx to the basket.
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06-26-26 spal
35% cash
Have stripped back to "certain" and rock solid holdings for now.
Frontera (now and infrastructure co - mainly Puerto Bahia and the oleducto) ... I am confident it will do fine under the new regime in Colombia. Largest position and adding.
PPIH - thermal covered high tech oil and gas pipe manufacture with manufacturing and contracts in place in the GCC and in Ohio. Joint bet on cooling pipes for data centers and by-pass pipes in the GCC. Both are strategic. Very high backlog. Large position.
Large position on copper (junior miner index COPJ) and Gunnison Copper.
Position in RAIL ... rail car manufacturing ... huge demand for transport (rail) in the interior corridors in US/ Mexico.
MASS - my only tech position. Adding. Hand held mass spectrometers. Killer application IMO.
JOB - special situation (cashed up staffing company with an activist on board).
APPL - best mass scale consumer hotel franchise in the US currently - great brand portolio. This is for domestic middle class and biz travel.
NNBR - turnaround ... likely.
ALVOF - brazil gas ... great contracts.
Watching shipping currently mostly pulling back, but could re-enter.
Market is currently in flux.
How about you?
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06-26-26 panasonic
| Spal, where are your chips right now? |
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06-26-26 spal
| Panas yes - but it all seems very contrary actually. There is a commodity bounce building up again somewhere in all this. |
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06-26-26 panasonic
Spal, besides semis and specifically memory stocks, the tech world is taking a beat.
Nikkei dropped big time tdy.
Anals were pushing oil & precious metals and both went wrong, very...
Now they are pushing financials, maybe me should buy puts... |
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06-26-26 spal
Tech
While tech indices have finally started experiencing high-volume, overdue pullbacks (such as the recent 2% single-day drop in the Nasdaq), tech has remained insulated from the broader commodity and crypto pain.
Why? Because mega-cap tech is no longer treated as a purely speculative risk asset. In a market terrified of structural inflation, high rates, and supply-chain blockages, companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple are treated as sovereign cash-flow monopolies. They have zero debt risk, massive pricing power, and ironclad balance sheets. Capital escaping crypto and vulnerable small-caps has flown straight into mega-cap tech as a defensive proxy, artificially keeping valuations highly elevated. |
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06-26-26 spal
Oil
Futures traders sell the possibility of supply resolution immediately, completely ignoring the fact that Iran has given zero credible assurances of a true opening. The paper market is choosing to price in an incoming wave of supply that does not physically exist yet, leaving oil fundamentally mispriced relative to its immediate, tight physical constraints. |
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06-26-26 spal
| Fed rate hikes for later this year under Kevin Warsh, real yields (bond yields minus inflation) have aggressively spiked. |
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