03-29-26 spal
| Of course it will spike higher ... but that is volatility folks. |
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03-29-26 spal
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03-29-26 spal
The "Double Squeeze" of 2026
We are witnessing a rare alignment where the world’s two largest "relief valves" have failed simultaneously.
The Baltic Squeeze: Ukraine’s "Leningrad Campaign" has shut down the North.
The Hormuz Squeeze: The US-Iran conflict has throttled the South.
The Math: With 20 million bpd loitering in the Gulf and 2 million bpd physically destroyed in the Baltic, the global "buffer" is zero. Even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, the Russian infrastructure is still charred metal. This creates a structural deficit that keeps prices elevated even during demand lulls. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Diesel crack spreads will likely hit record highs. |
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03-29-26 spal
While the Iran war involves a larger volume of crude, the Ukrainian strikes are having a more acute proportional impact on global refined product markets (diesel and gasoline).
The Volume Gap: The Strait of Hormuz closure has taken roughly 15–20 million bpd of "physical flow" offline or into "loitering" status. Ukraine's strikes have halted roughly 2 million bpd (40% of Russia’s western seaborne exports).
The Scarcity Multiplier: The impact of the Ukraine strikes is "greater" in the sense that they are hitting refined products. With Middle East refineries (like Ruwais and Bapco) already under threat or operating at reduced capacity due to the "tit-for-tat" strikes you noted, the loss of Russian diesel and gasoline processing is creating a global refined product deficit that crude reserves (like the IEA's 400M barrel release) cannot easily fix.
The Narrative Shift: The Iran war was priced in as a "geopolitical risk." The Ukraine strikes are being priced in as a "permanent structural loss" of infrastructure that cannot be repaired quickly due to sanctions on Western refinery components. |
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03-29-26 spal
This is what peak cycle financing looks like.
===
Yes. The parallels with the 1920's are now glaring at us. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Amateur, just to wrap up, how do you see the political outcome for Republicans if can't finish the job? |
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03-29-26 victor
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03-29-26 amateur
I agree China hegemony is the outcome if the US cannot "finish the job".
I dont know enough to make a judgement about their chances. But I am pessimistic. Not because DT is personally disgusting. Because he is a bad strategist.
I fear Israel may have gone a bridge too soon. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Amateur, same as me wrote, logistics is everything when you force entry in a crystal shop, now China has the upper hand if USA can't finish de job, or what alternative scenario in your opinion? |
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03-29-26 amateur
"the conceit of our expertise shows no limits or borders" 😆
Indeed.
Even if our expertise had any limits, which of course it doesnt, the Iran episode seems a lot more significant for all of us than a decades old default by a smallish debtor...
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03-29-26 amateur
Why would European alignment with Israel make a defining difference in the annihilation of Iran's military power?
If it did, why was it not sought in advance?
Could they assume European forced participation while in Ukraine, that is an existential threat for Europe, the US is withholding support and DT even often courting Putin. (I just leave aside the threats of annexation of Greenland and Canada...)
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03-29-26 savo
Circular deals...
In 45 years on Wall Street, I've never seen anything like this.
Sam Altman just convinced 3 of the world's smartest investors to fund his losses.
$110 billion. But ZERO profit in sight.
The largest private funding round in history.
Let me explain why this is borderline criminal & what you have to understand as an investor:
Amazon. Nvidia. SoftBank.
3 of the world's most sophisticated investors just handed OpenAI $110 billion at an $840 billion valuation.
That's more than double the $40 billion OpenAI raised last year.
For context: all US venture capital combined invested $170 billion into American startups in all of 2023.
Altman just raised 65% of that. Alone. In one round.
And the company STILL isn't profitable.
Let's look at the actual numbers:
OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026. $35 billion in 2027. $47 billion in 2028.
Cumulative losses before any projected path to profitability: over $115 billion.
Meanwhile, Amazon's $50 billion comes with strings attached. $35 billion is contingent on OpenAI either achieving AGI or completing its IPO by year end.
Read that again.
$35 billion is conditioned on ACHIEVING AGI.
They're literally writing checks against a scientific breakthrough that may not happen on any predictable timeline.
This is what peak cycle financing looks like.
The circular logic every investor should understand:
Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI.
OpenAI commits to spending $100 billion on Amazon Web Services.
Nvidia invests $30 billion.
OpenAI commits to buying 3 gigawatts of Nvidia compute.
These aren't arms-length investments. They're vendor financing dressed up as venture capital.
Amazon and Nvidia are essentially paying OpenAI to buy their own products.
The $840 billion valuation prices in a future that doesn't exist yet.
At $13 billion in 2025 revenue, that's 65x revenue.
Even in 2021 - the most speculative bubble in recent tech history - Snowflake peaked at 50-80x revenue.
And Snowflake was actually profitable.
J.P. Morgan calculates that the AI industry needs $650 billion in annual revenue just to generate a 10% return on total infrastructure buildout.
The entire industry currently generates a fraction of that.
I've seen cycles my entire 45-year career.
The 1980s defense build-up. The dot-com bubble. The 2008 mortgage machine.
The pattern is always the same:
When the biggest players start financing each other's growth through circular investment structures, you're not witnessing a revolution...
You're watching the LAST PHASE of a credit cycle.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said OpenAI is going to be "one of the very big winners long term."
Maybe.
But $840 billion assumes they've already won.
Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.
And right now, OpenAI's earnings are deeply, structurally, massively negative.
The IPO is coming. The hype will peak. And the question every serious investor needs to answer is simple:
At what price does this actually make sense?
Sam Altman doesn’t know either - he just keeps raising money faster than he can burn it.
This can’t end well.
https://substack.com/@georgenoble/note/c-220684623
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03-29-26 spal
for years colores was the veni board.
now it's the iran/middle east board.
:-))
===
Victor - the conceit of our expertise shows no limits or borders. That is a well known colores's trait. Just ask my wife. |
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03-29-26 victor
:-))
Maduro propone “perdón y diálogo” en Venezuela
CNN Español —
El derrocado presidente de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, divulgó este domingo una carta con un llamado a la paz en el país sudamericano y con citas religiosas por el Domingo de Ramos, un día después de publicar su primer mensaje desde que fue capturado en enero en un operativo estadounidense en Caracas.
“Que Venezuela sea casa de oración, casa de respeto, casa de encuentro. Que limpiemos el corazón del odio, de la división y del egoísmo, y abramos paso al perdón, a la reconciliación y a la paz”, dijo Maduro en una carta firmada junto a su esposa, Cilia Flores, también detenida en Nueva York, y publicada en la cuenta del diputado Nicolás Maduro Guerra, hijo del líder chavista.
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03-29-26 victor
for years colores was the veni board.
now it's the iran/middle east board.
:-)) |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Spal,no need of diplomacy between us :-))
I measure under my tape naturally, the one me considers most important is where does general population live better.
Of course each one of us measures differently, part of colores life. |
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03-29-26 spal
100 % agree.
===
Ruspan - it is a joke that many will not state this. Although that joke leads to tragedy.
It is an obscenity to say that somehow the Israelis see the Arabs in the GCC as their partners and equals. I do not believe this at all.
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03-29-26 spal
| A polarized world seen more clearly Panas as you say when the "masks come off". |
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03-29-26 spal
Dems win and this is check mate, China becomes the new world leader.
=====
There is no real check mate though. This can not be in an era of nuclear weapons. The Iranians know that this is actually the essentially balancing item.
Assume China is dominant - how can that be so if Russia or the United States or even Israel could wipe out Beijing?
If the world order can be completely undone by a nuclear strike then that fact contains and restrains the "order" and the hegemon.
As such this diminishes universal and unilateral power projection.
Thus the rise of middle powers and warfare that focusses on asymetric power projection and resource choke points.
This is the future.
A polarized world.
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03-29-26 ruspan
Spal:"Let's state it clearly now shall we.
Israel see Iran as the only legitimate contender for their plan to dominate the Middle East hence this campaign.
This is their entire motivation."
100 % agree.
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03-29-26 spal
How do we think that reducing the civilian infrastructure of Iran to rubble is a noble cause?
Because we are scared that they can't be grown ups with nuclear weapons?
I don't buy it. North Korea as my witness. |
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03-29-26 spal
| In saying this I do not deny that many Americans are horrible, vicious people also ... actually I do not deny that ... but the world as it is is really running out of ways to dress up these battles as "noble causes". |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Amateur, this is my very personal view:
If world leaders can't overcome their feelings for DT and focus on the bigger picture, the only one left that can solve the conflict is China.
The deal? China manages and controls Hormuz, and oil flow from ME.
DT and Republicans are punished on next elections, Dems win and this is check mate, China becomes the new world leader. |
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03-29-26 spal
I'd prefer it if people just called Saudi Arabia a gas station run by a Mafia state ... pretending these are real countries with real interests ius part of the problem here.
Iran is actually a real country. |
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03-29-26 spal
Panas - my view is that the Saudis are horrible, vicious people ... so my inclination is to contain these mother fuckers.
I can also say this diplomatically, but you are a friend. |
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03-29-26 spal
| The rest of the blah blah on this is ... bullshit for consumption by helpful idiots. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Spal, it has always been abt. control of gulf states, Israel was the excuse to keep people united against a common enemy.
Behind scenes Israel and Gulf States were working together monitoring the weapons build up.
Masks off means, now is a wide open confrontation, and that explains why autopen (Biden) was rcvd so coldly in KSA during his visit. |
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03-29-26 spal
IDF sources told Israeli media that they no longer believed regime change was possible, so the plan shifted to destroying as much of Iran's civilian and military infrastructure as possible.
===
Let's state it clearly now shall we.
Israel see Iran as the only legitimate contender for their plan to dominate the Middle East hence this campaign.
This is their entire motivation. |
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03-29-26 ruspan
The IRGC announces strikes on American universities in the Middle East.
According to a statement from the IRGC, the US administration has until 12:00 PM Tehran time on March 30 to condemn the attacks on Iranian universities.
Otherwise, it claims, American educational institutions in the region could become targets.
The statement also notes that two American universities in the Middle East will be destroyed regardless of Washington's response—as retaliation for the bombed Iranian universities. The names of these institutions are not specified. |
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03-29-26 ruspan
Today, the Israeli Air Force, possibly in conjunction with the US Air Force, struck the Tehran Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization.
The facility was completely destroyed. The Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization is a civilian body responsible for managing the natural environment and waterways in Tehran Province, according to several international humanitarian organizations.
As a reminder, on March 11, IDF sources told Israeli media that they no longer believed regime change was possible, so the plan shifted to destroying as much of Iran's civilian and military infrastructure as possible. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Panas ... can you dumb that last comment down for me ... I am a bit slow this morning. Let me get some more coffee. |
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03-29-26 amateur
Pana, I agree that preventing Iran from becoming atomic armed was and is a necessary and valid objective.
But what is the plan to get there? DT blah blah that Iran would surrender after the first strikes proved wrong. Did Israel believe it could succeed?
In any case, it did not. What is the plan now? Keep bombing month after month until the last launching site is eliminated? And Houties, and other Iran supported movements in Iraq, Lebanon?
Will DT keep support for a long fight as the elections come closer, or will he, as in Ukraine, get cold feet and withdraw?
What is your guess abt coming development? |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Spal, now that masks are off we understand why Auto-pen was rcvd in KSA by the janitor, their desperate call to stop the build up were totally ignored for years. |
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03-29-26 amateur
| The United Arab Emirates’ defence ministry said it had engaged 16 ballistic missiles and 42 drones on Sunday, the second day of a marked increase in attacks on the Gulf state.… |
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03-29-26 spal
Oh and with enough current bombing and destruction you can obviously beat it back to an equilibrium where the Emiratis go back to their slave states, big hotels and Russian hookers (sorry Ruspan) and the Iranians back to tickering with the Koran and weapons high in the mountains ... but it will be an unstable equilibrium.
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03-29-26 spal
Big mistake is to let this build up.
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Unless this is solved in the Gulf you can kiss it goodbye. |
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03-29-26 spal
I trust gulf states intelligence services abt. breaking the balance in the region that would put them on their knees.
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They only have knees because of oil.
Virtually zero of their development comes from their own merits or abilities.
Sure part of the fight is the politics of envy and I 100% understand how that drive human nature. It is probably the key driver.
Big mistake is to let this build up.
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03-29-26 spal
Iran is a huge country with a vigorous and very young 80 mln population, how would you imagine its destruction short of carpet nukes?
Ukrain is smaller, have 20 mlh population now, half of it pensionists. It is regulary ans systematically bombed in all its terrirory for several years now. Still fights quite vigurously.
Think about it.
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Ruspan ... I am probably on your side ... much more than you think. You are 100% correct here. Good observations. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Spal, we agree in the essence that DT went solo without sharing with allieds, logistics is everything went you enter a crystal shop. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Ruspan, yes your view matches anti-war people which is ok, but certainly more risky
I trust gulf states intelligence services abt. breaking the balance in the region that would put them on their knees.
How do you explain that a country with 12 zeros devaluation and wide devastation from war still seeks an arsenal of weapons that reaches Europe not be considered aggressive? |
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03-29-26 spal
ran acquires nuclear capability, will the present problem be smaller or bigger?
....
My question is do lapdog states deserve to live the high life in that region or should a civilizing force of thousands of years and 90,000,000 people also get a role? Related to the question of should autocratic, monarchies sit on the heads of their people in the same region? Final question ... is Israel a transnational "project" to a some other question or is it legitimately an outgrowth of a domestic need.
Bonus question ... why are all these people obsessed with their religions and their dictates? And should we give two fucks? |
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03-29-26 spal
- monster grew even bigger and Israel can't handle the military campaign by its own.
The question is why the monster grew bigger. Clearly there was energy and enthusiasm behind it otherwise it would not grow. The question of monster and that categorization is one of perspective ... very similar to the nomenclature "terrorist" ... again one is consumed in a view simply from the direction one looks. This applies also from the view out of the rubble of Gaza for example.
The question Panas is not simple. It is complex and that it why it has not been solved.
Iran decided in 1979 to "go it alone". They did not become an international business and tech franchise to the McDonald's vendors of the world.
Unfortunately one of the "fires" that they use to charge up the people (in the case of Israel) is antisemistism ... this is done for various reasons, but having a common enemy is a unifying force normally. There is an unfortunate side to this and I also think it is bad policy.
But the Iranians are independent - they are not like the lapdog states in the Gulf. Thought about in purely terms like this I think that one should prefer independents rather than lapdogs.
The lapdog business is a global one and normally in the world you have to chose this state of being one way of another.
Longer term view is that Iran is the only legitimate challenge to Israels claim to hegemony in the region and that is why the Israelis are smacking then as hard and as fast as they can.
The question is at what point can detente be agreed?
Concerning nuclear proliferation ... that is also a mind-bendingly difficult question.
BTW the Persians and Jews were friends for thousands of years ... they managed to fuck this up only in recent times.
Democrats wont ever join, so there is a very narrow window to end it.
My question to colores is only one:
Iran acquires nuclear capability, will the present problem be smaller or bigger? |
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03-29-26 ruspan
Pana, if Iran would adquire nuclear capability there would be no problem and no war now, imho - all this tales about crazy uncontrollable mullas are coming from really crazy people with a plan for regional domination who already set the whole place on fire and put the whole planet firmly on a way to a crisis of yet unseen scale, with hundreds of millions in direct danger.
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03-29-26 ruspan
Amateur: "03-29-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations?"
Iran is a huge country with a vigorous and very young 80 mln population, how would you imagine its destruction short of carpet nukes?
Ukrain is smaller, have 20 mlh population now, half of it pensionists. It is regulary ans systematically bombed in all its terrirory for several years now. Still fights quite vigurously.
Think about it.
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03-29-26 panasonic
Spal, Amateur the answer is quite simple.
Negotiations approach didn't work, monster grew even bigger and Israel can't handle the military campaign by its own.
Democrats wont ever join, so there is a very narrow window to end it.
My question to colores is only one:
Iran acquires nuclear capability, will the present problem be smaller or bigger?
I am in the same camp as Gulf States, you?
That was my "wave a white flag" question days ago. |
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03-29-26 ruspan
The Gulf War is already impacting the global food system—and the consequences could be far more serious than rising oil prices, according to The Telegraph.
"The longer the war continues, the worse the looming global food crisis will become," says a column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, a British economics journalist.
The blow has struck the very heart of fertilizer production.
"Supplies of urea, ammonia, and sulfur were halted for 27 critical days in the agricultural calendar," the author writes.
At the same time, export restrictions by China, Russia, and Turkey have worsened the situation.
"About 45% of global nitrogen fertilizer supplies have either already been interrupted, disrupted, or are under threat," the article notes.
The crisis is unfolding at a crucial moment—before the Northern Hemisphere sowing season.
"This is happening just before spring sowing... This is the worst of the 'black swans,'" the author emphasizes.
The consequences could be systemic.
"This is the number one concern today. All major grain crops, as well as animal feed, are at risk," said WTO representative Jean-Marie Paugam.
"In some countries, people will die of hunger if they don't receive imports," the article states.
Prices have already risen: the global price of urea has increased by approximately 60%, to around $680 per ton, and in some regions, it has reached $900.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of supplies is simply stuck.
"24 ships carrying fertilizer are currently in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach farmers," said the head of the US Fertilizer Institute.
A separate risk is the concentration of supplies.
Up to a third of the global urea trade and about half of the sulfur supply come from the Persian Gulf countries.
Over the long term, the effect will mount.
"First, a hit to fertilizer supplies, then a drop in crop yields in the fall, and then a rise in food prices in 2027," experts warn.
"The lag is measured in seasons, not days," the article states.
"In the new world, survival requires growing your own food, producing your own energy, and producing your own fertilizer," the author concludes.
(Re- translated back from Russian)
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03-29-26 amateur
| Sorry for duplicate post… |
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03-29-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations? |
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03-29-26 pillz
Iran's Pezeshkian clashes with IRGC's chief over control of Iran, marking rifts in regime - report
Iran International reported that Iran's President Pezeshkian criticized the IRGC's approach of increasing tensions in the region and attacking neighbouring countries.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891479 |
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03-29-26 spal
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03-29-26 pillz
Pilly - we honestly need you sage and wise insight on Israel here.
//
there is nothing to say, Israel try to change the regime in Iran, if not they will have 3 to 5 years time to re-fight ... |
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03-29-26 spal
UAE has an active role in Iran war and will be pounded if US invades, Iranian sources say
===
Boom boom boom boom
I'm gonna shoot you right down,
right offa your feet
Boom Boom Lyrics by John Lee Hooker |
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03-29-26 spal
Bahrain's aluminum facility hit in Iran attack, state news agency says
https://cnn.com/2026/03/28/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump?post-id=cmnb18twj00003b6t3ihhis4g
There goes the neighborhood
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03-29-26 Merlino
| https://x.com/WoodMackenzie/status/2037515052937290200 |
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03-29-26 spal
This is indeed a "grave escalation" for several strategic reasons:
Houthi Entry: For the first time in this month-old war, the Houthi rebels officially entered the conflict today (Saturday), launching their own missiles toward "sensitive Israeli military sites." This forces Israel to defend a 360-degree front.
Hypersonic Penetration: The reported strike on the fortified IDF command center suggests that the Fattah-2 is successfully maneuvering around THAAD and Arrow-3 interceptors. OSINT analysts are calling this a "new era of air defense" where traditional interceptors are failing to achieve a 100% kill rate.
Regional Spillover: By targeting Irbil and bases in Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan Air Base) simultaneously, Iran is effectively ignoring U.S. President Trump’s "ceasefire window" (originally set to expire April 6) and is instead opting for a "deterrence by punishment" strategy. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Hypersonic missile attacks directed at Dubai International Airport. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Or sabotage? ... That is a possibility that I also heard floated. |
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03-28-26 spal
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
===
Pilly - we honestly need you sage and wise insight on Israel here.
From an outsider's perspective Pilly they seem to be way out of control here. I really hope this is not the case. |
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03-28-26 carib
| Or sabotage? (like the fire in the laundry room) |
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03-28-26 carib
| I heard a rumour most toilets on the Gerald Ford (now in Crete) are out of order. Shitty pentagon tenders? |
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03-28-26 carib
I second Amateur.
1) China is gaining with Trumpism. Never try to stop an enemy who is harming himself.
2) Machiavelli wisely suggested that enemies should be treated well or killed, but never wounded.
Trump proved to the Ayatollahs they really need nukes to be feared, so either Iran is turned into a second Venezuela (unlikely) or we need shaven leaders (preferably the Shah's granddaughter).
Declaring victory and going home can be "Trumpish".. but I fear would not solve the problem. |
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03-28-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations? |
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03-28-26 amateur
“Leaving China without oil supply.. at some point they will respond.”
Savo, China may shout but they are enjoying:
1) US bleeding in Iran, spending military resources and losing goodwill, domestic and international;
2) USA damaging its postwar alliance with Europe and Canada;
3) Europe bleeding from Ukraine support, Oil+gasimports and loss of USA alliance
4) Russia bleeding in Ukraine becoming a mere vassal of China.
So China is enjoying. Most of the energy they can replace by reactivating coal.
And the window to go after Taiwan is slowly opening…
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03-28-26 spal
Schrödringer's Trump
Now claiming that he has won the war, is currently winning the war, needs help to win the war and needs no help to win the war. All to destroy a nuclear program he claims to have destroyed last year. |
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03-28-26 carib
| Lea más: (Senadoras de EE.UU. cuestionan operaciones con bonos de Venezuela en torno a caída de Maduro) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/senadoras-de-eeuu-cuestionan-operaciones-con-bonos-de-venezuela-en-torno-a-caida-de-maduro/ |
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03-28-26 savo
this is a mess turning into a world war... the US is essentially leaving China without oil supply.. at some point they will respond.
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03-28-26 carib
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03-28-26 ruspan
LR2 (Long Range 2) 80,000–159,999
Suezmax 120,000–200,000
VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) 160,000–319,999
VLCC 200,000–320,000
ULCC (Ultra Large Crude Carrier) 320,000–549,999 ULCC 320,000–550,000
I am sorry, copy/past did not work well. Here are the basic numbers.
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03-28-26 ruspan
Oil tankers in the Suez Canal are primarily limited by a maximum draft of
(
), a beam of
(
), and a height (air draft) of
(
). Known as "Suezmax," these vessels generally have a maximum capacity of around
to
deadweight tons (DWT) and an overall length of up to
(
).
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
+3
Key Size Constraints (Suezmax):
Draft:
(
).
Beam (Width):
(
).
Height (Air Draft):
(
).
Deadweight Tonnage (DWT): Typically
–
DWT.
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+3
Operational Considerations:
Fully Laden vs. Ballast: While many loaded tankers fit, some fully laden Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) may exceed these limits and must partially unload cargo (transshipment) before passing.
Channel Depth: The canal depth is approximately
(
).
Bridge Height: The Suez Canal Bridge restricts the height of vessels to
.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
+1
Suezmax vessels are specifically designed to meet these maximum dimensions to allow for efficient passage between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. |
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03-28-26 carib
| What is the size limit for oil tankers in the Suez canal? |
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03-28-26 spal
Force Majeure: Analysts expect Saudi Aramco to declare Force Majeure on Red Sea deliveries within the next 24–48 hours, effectively removing 4.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the global waterborne market.
he Grey Market and $120 Brent Forecast
The "Security for Oil" pact’s collapse has created a historic inversion in the shadow markets.
Russian Urals Premium: For the first time, Russian Urals is trading at a $5–$10 premium over Brent, reaching $105.50/bbl on the grey market. Moscow is now the world’s "lender of last resort" for crude.
Sunday Night Forecast: When markets open on March 29, a $10–$15 "gap up" is expected. We are projecting a breach of $120/bbl within the first hour of Asian trading. |
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03-28-26 spal
As the Houthis join the Iran war, a look at the oil tanker situation around the Red Sea and critical Bab al-Mandab Strait from
@MarineTraffic
.
Dozens of tankers have rerouted to the Saudi oil port of Yanbu (highlighted), with dozens more transiting the waterway.
===
They are possibly trapped - it is an exercise in really good timing by the Houthis |
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03-28-26 spal
The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have decided to officially join the ongoing war on the side of Iran, with sirens currently sounding across Southern Israel due to the launch of a ballistic missile from Yemen.
===
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03-28-26 spal
OSINT Verification: Immediacy of the Threat
The Trigger: Today's (March 27) simultaneous Israeli/US strikes on Mobarakeh Steel (Isfahan) and Khuzestan Steel (Ahvaz) provided the IRGC with the "strategic permission" to target regional metallurgical hubs.
The Order: Tasnim and Fars News Agencies have broadcast the evacuation mandate for Saudi Hadeed, Emirates Steel, Qatar Steel, Bahraini Foulath, KWT Steel, and Yehuda Steel.
Immediacy: The IRGC Aerospace Force (Gen. Mousavi) has characterized this not as a future warning, but as a pre-launch protocol. Historically, in this 2026 conflict, Iranian "evacuation orders" have preceded kinetic impact by 4 to 12 hours. |
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03-28-26 spal
| Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Yaroslavl Oil Refinery |
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03-28-26 spal
| Pilly ... your view on this move old friend? |
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03-28-26 spal
Israel ... I would attempt to seriously reign them in. But since I am just a share trader I am staying long oil and oil infrastructure.
I mean seriously Israel did not anticipate this? And worse if they did ... and I think they did. |
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03-28-26 spal
Based on current OSINT reports and state media releases from Tehran today, March 27, 2026, the claim is verified as true.
This evacuation order marks a significant expansion of Iran’s target list, moving from energy infrastructure (targeted on March 18) to the regional industrial and metallurgical sector.
OSINT Verification & Context
The Trigger: Earlier today (Day 28 of Operation Epic Fury), the Israeli Air Force conducted simultaneous strikes on two of Iran's primary steel hubs: Mobarakeh Steel (Isfahan) and Khuzestan Steel (Ahvaz). These facilities, partially owned by the IRGC, sustained heavy damage to power substations and production lines.
The Order: In immediate retaliation, the IRGC’s public relations office and the Tasnim News Agency published a warning for workers at "US- and Israeli-linked" industrial sites to evacuate. The order specifically advises all personnel and residents within a 1-kilometer radius of the listed plants to leave to avoid "imminent harm."
Targeted Facilities (Verified List):
Saudi Arabia: Hadeed (SABIC) complex, Al-Jubail.
UAE: Emirates Steel Arkan, Abu Dhabi.
Qatar: Qatar Steel, Mesaieed.
Bahrain: Foulath (SULB & GIC), Al Hidd.
Kuwait: United Steel Industrial Co (KWT Steel), Shuaiba.
Israel: Yehuda Steel, Isdud (Ashdod).
Strategic Implications
By targeting these specific plants, Tehran is moving to paralyze the regional construction and defense supply chains. Analysts at CSIS and Verisk Maplecroft suggest this is a "horizontal escalation" intended to prove that Israel’s tactics against Iranian industry will be met with symmetrical economic costs for GCC partners.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have reportedly raised their civil defense alert levels to "Red" in response, with some non-essential staff already being moved from the Jubail and Abu Dhabi sites as of 8:00 PM local time. |
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03-28-26 spal
Iran has issued an evacuation order for the following #steel production plants:
Saudi Hadeed Steel
Emirates Steel Arkan
Qatar Steel
Bahraini Foulath
Kuwaiti United Steel Industrial Co
Israeli Yehuda Steel
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03-28-26 spal
BREAKING: The BAPCO refinery complex is on fire in Riffa, Bahrain, locals tell Rerum Novarum.
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Whoops |
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03-28-26 spal
Protest is rapidly escalating in Bahrain. The Al Khalifa family is likely relocating to Saudi Arabia soon, Iran may reclaim Bahrain.
Nearly 65% of population of Bahrain are pro-Iranian Shia. |
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