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06-20-25 patient-trader
Savo, Israel eliminated Hamas, Hizbollah, Houthis, Assad gang. The Mullahs are the last domino stone to fall.
Neither China nor Russia are stepping in because they cannot help anyway.
Ideally, they should bomb Iranian and Russian oil/gas ports then these guys are finished in no time.
Very stupidly, Trump forbid the Ukrainians to attack Russian oil export facilities. |
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06-20-25 savo
pt...
you sound very similar to the PT of the early days of ukraine-russia..
there are two axis here.. it is not israel iran only..others will get involved if this escalates.. let's hope it doesn't |
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06-20-25 savo
pillz.. no need to get personal..my opinion is of no relevance.. and in fact i do not have one.. i can just as well say that if you think the israeli-neighbors problem is any different than the other conflicts around you have a problem .. we will get nowhere...
but if you explain to me your opinion it will be more useful
i prefer a world nukes free.. but given that is not going to happen.. i do not understand how can some countries pretend to decide who can have them and who can not. |
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06-20-25 patient-trader
Had long talks with an Iranian opposition guy who had been to prison there. He estimated that there are only around 100,000 active supporters of the regime. These are keeping quite smartly control of the population. Hard-core opposition people are imprisoned and usually left out after some time. Those who still oppose are told that next time they go to prison they are killed or alternatively they can emigrate.
Opposition guys who get out of prison receive a hero's welcome. He said he had never so many girls chasing him like when he came out of prison.
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06-20-25 patient-trader
Why did Netanyahu launch the attack without having access to the bunker busting bombs? It seems he gambled that Trump would join - or Trump had been leading him on but didnt follow through.
Trump is apparently dragging his feet with his two week deadline hoping that the Israel-Iran war resolves itself without the US having to get involved directly.
So what now?
I think the best the Israelis can do now is to bomb the Revolutionary Guards and other forces supporting the regime and hope the Iranian opposition topples the regime after the bombing. |
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06-20-25 pillz
How a Bunker Buster Bomb Works?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDh1x3hd6xQ |
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06-20-25 spal
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06-20-25 pillz
| Savo, if you compare Ukraine - Russia with Israel - Iran , you have a big problem ... |
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06-20-25 spal
Jiang Xueqin - not sure who this really is - but he is a highly skilled political analysis. He has a YouTube channel called predictive history and a year ago provided a thought experiment on an Israel/Iran conflict which looks like it could have been done by a time traveller.
Anyhow he provides a recent update on his thinking here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XdL-7tAqnU |
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06-19-25 spal
and ask for ransom, what else...
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They don't have a good track record with American hostages - so your formulation has some foundation.
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06-19-25 victor
pana, that's right. now i fully agree with you.
there are no votes for sanchez to pick-up on the right..
his voters are on the left or center-left.
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06-19-25 panasonic
Savo, two different conflicts...Russia never said they want to annihilate Ukraine.
Putin failed to deliver Kiev in two days, don't see a good way to save face out of this one.
Iran is building bombs, or would be OK to comply with EAD enrichment grades.
Your post was clear, "end with Israel's nuclear monopoly", we are intelligent enough to understand what author meant. |
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06-19-25 panasonic
| Yes Vic, Sanchez was ok with NATO as long as USA was picking the bill, at least he is frontal that won't spend money on it. |
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06-19-25 victor
pana, sanchez no queda bien con Dios y el diablo..
sanchez es creo el unico que se atreve a decirle esto a la otan..
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No solo sería “irresponsable” sino incluso “contraproducente” que España elevara su gasto en seguridad y defensa hasta el 5% del PIB.
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En segundo lugar, Sánchez advierte que incrementar hasta el 5% del PIB el gasto militar “dañaría nuestro crecimiento económico en el corto, medio y largo plazo, al producir un incremento de la deuda, presiones inflacionarias, y el debilitamiento de la inversión en actividades cruciales para nuestra competitividad futura y con un mayor efecto multiplicador que la industria de defensa, por ejemplo, la educación, la sanidad o la tecnología digital”.
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06-19-25 victor
pana, sanchez no busca quedar bien con Dios y con el diablo..
otro ejemplo:
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May 20, 2025
Spain's PM wants Israel out of international cultural events over Gaza war
MADRID, May 19 (Reuters) - Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called on Monday for Israel's exclusion from international cultural events such as the Eurovision song contest over its military campaign in Gaza, just as Russia was barred after its invasion of Ukraine.
"We cannot allow double standards, not even in culture," Sanchez, a Socialist and long-time critic of Israeli policies in occupied Palestinian territory, told a conference in Madrid.
"I believe that no one was shocked three years ago when Russia was asked to withdraw from international competitions after it invaded Ukraine and not participate, for example, at Eurovision. Therefore, Israel should not do so either," he said.
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06-19-25 victor
pana, what me tried to explain in previous posts, quiere estar bien con d.s y con el diablo...una serpiente.
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sanchez no quiere estar bien con la otan, pana.
ni con eeuu, ni con israel.
ante las amenazas de dt con los impuestos, sanchez se acerca a china.
a pesar de todas las criticas fue la decision correcta.
y con la otan: que sanchez sea el #1 problema de la otan, que no acepta el 5% gasto de defensa?
eso no es quedar bien con Dios y el diablo.. sino lo contrario, para mi.
yo te diria que sanchez es el UNICO lider europeo que NO acepta las decisiones de eeuu y la otan.
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06-19-25 savo
pana..spal... i do not have any particular understanding of what is going on exactly in the middle east...but we are intelligent people...and as such can not take at face value what Netanyahu or the Us military complex tell us. We should hear all views and form an opinion.
What we do know is that there are two axis of evil...not one... each with its own agenda and dis-information channels.
Both axis have a 300 pound gorila leading them.
Both Gorilas are of equal size and take side in this dispute. Meaning any action will provoke a reaction.
This wont be resolved through reciprocal bombing. Russia Ukraine in its 4th year proves that.
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06-19-25 panasonic
| Vic, what me tried to explain in previous posts, quiere estar bien con d.s y con el diablo...una serpiente. |
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06-19-25 panasonic
| Spal, "then what" is easy to predict, blow all oil facilities from neighbors, close Hormutz Strait and ask for ransom, what else... |
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06-19-25 victor
it's great that dt is writing his own posts :-))
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“Too Late” Jerome Powell is costing our Country Hundreds of Billions of Dollars. He is truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government, and the Fed Board is complicit. Europe has had 10 cuts, we have had none. We should be 2.5 Points lower, and save $BILLIONS on all of Biden’s Short Term Debt. We have LOW inflation! TOO LATE’s an American Disgrace!
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06-19-25 victor
pana, now sanchez has become a problem for europe and nato..
let germany and other spend more on defense if they want to..
but spain wont.
right now i think sanchez is spending even less than 2%.
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Sánchez zanja a la OTAN que es “irresponsable y contraproducente” que España suba su gasto militar al 5%
El Gobierno español es quien se opone más abiertamente a la propuesta de Rutte para la cumbre de La Haya de la próxima semana
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06-19-25 spal
Same happened in US borders, author speaking of US interests?
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And of course the guy left us hanging. Maybe the right thought experiment is if Iran became the regional hegemon - then what? |
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06-19-25 victor
| ⚠️ Update: It has now been 24 hours since #Iran imposed a nationwide internet shutdown; the ongoing blackout incident is the most severe tracked since the November 2019 protests and impacts the public's ability to stay connected at a time when communications are vital ⏱️ |
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06-19-25 panasonic
Savo, piece was written by one of the okupas of the White House during Biden's battle with dementia and clearly shredded all PSA tests.
Read latest report of EAD and acceleration of enrichment, financed by those okupas.
Same happened in US borders, author speaking of US interests? I call it BS.
Final sentence the author exposed the agenda:
"Just to protect Israel’s nuclear monopoly in the Middle East"
Confession that supports Iran having nuclear power.
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06-19-25 savo
cutting the bullshit...
War with Iran Is Not in the Interest of the American People
A group protests against going to war with Iran outside the Capitol building
06/18/2025 • Mises Wire • Connor O'Keeffe
The United States is, once again, on the precipice of entering another war in the Middle East. After months of productive negotiations between the Trump administration and the Iranian government to reach a new nuclear deal, the talks were broken off by a series of Israeli airstrikes on June 13, last Friday.
The Israelis targeted the homes and apartments of top Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) officials, nuclear scientists, and negotiators who had been working with the US. They also hit Iranian nuclear facilities and various military sites Iran would have relied on to defend against Israel’s attack and eventually retaliate.
Israeli officials and their allies in the media have called these strikes “preemptive” without providing evidence that an Iranian attack on Israel was imminent. What the attack did preempt, however, was the next phase of the US-Iranian negotiations, which was scheduled to begin on Sunday.
Trump, who had made numerous public statements opposing Israel’s interest in bombing Iran before the strikes actually happened, turned around and declared that he had simply been lying to all of us to help make the operation as successful as possible.
Regardless of whether Trump was lying then or is lying now to cover for Israel ignoring his wishes, his response has surely destroyed the credibility of those in Iran who were arguing that negotiations with the US were worthwhile and that the American president could be trusted—of course, a number of these officials were also killed by Israel in the last few days.
The stated aim of Israel’s operation is to destroy Iran’s civilian nuclear program to prevent it from ever developing a nuclear weapon. But many of the chosen targets and rhetoric from Israeli officials suggest that regime change may be the true, overarching goal. The operation’s name—Rising Lion—could even be a reference to the old Iranian flag from the days before the current regime came to power during the 1979 revolution.
But regardless of how far the Israelis are hoping to go in this current fight with Iran, it’s quickly become clear that they need the US to help them carry this operation out. Even if they’re exclusively going to target nuclear infrastructure from now on, the depth of these facilities can only be reached by US bunker-buster munitions. An all-out regime change war would require a lot more—likely direct operations by the US military.
So, a widespread effort has begun to convince the American people that it would be good for our government to get more involved in this war. Some are claiming it’s simply a straightforward way to prevent the impending annihilation of Israel without requiring much from us. Others are going as far as to say that, unless stopped, Iran is planning to soon hit targets in the continental United States.
Overall, this is being framed almost exactly like the situation in Iraq was over twenty years ago: a uniquely evil Middle Eastern regime is scrambling to acquire and use WMDs and needs to be stopped by the international community. But conveniently, we’re told, this regime is also hated by most of the people living under it—just like Saddam Hussein—so it will be easy to topple and replace with a stable, western-friendly government.
This is all nonsense. Like all the other regime change wars Washington and its allies have attempted in the region since 9/11, a full-on war with Iran will be far from a cakewalk.
Iran is a much bigger, more populous, and more advanced country than Iraq or Afghanistan. The mountainous terrain around most of the most strategically important cities would also be a lot harder to invade than the relatively flat desert American forces faced in Iraq.
Even if no ground troops were deployed and US forces remained confined to air and naval theaters, that would still be an enormously complex and costly operation. The recent campaign against the Houthis of Yemen—who were not nearly as powerful, numerous, and technologically advanced as the Iranians—was called off after a few months because US forces were not seeing notable results, weapons stockpiles were depleting quickly, and the military was burning a billion dollars a month.
The Houthis also got close to striking US naval ships on a few occasions with some relatively low-tech rockets and drones. Iran has a much stronger ability to target and kill American troops, not just on nearby ships but at the many US bases near Iran’s borders. Even if an American boot never touches Iranian soil, a direct air and sea war has the potential to be very deadly for the American side.
Economically, the American people have so far been forced to pay over two trillion dollars to fund two decades of wars in the Middle East. The wars made a few well-connected firms very rich, but for the rest of us, they only contributed to our escalating national economic crisis. A war with Iran has the potential to be a lot more expensive than any of the terror wars we’ve fought so far—it’s the equivalent of pressing down harder on the gas as we drive toward the lip of our fiscal cliff.
On top of all of that, it’s not even clear that a joint US-Israeli war to overthrow the current regime in Tehran would even bring a lot of benefits.
The entire basis of this effort has been that Israel, the United States, and the world as a whole cannot afford to “let” Iran have a nuclear weapon. Well, why not?
The narrative advocates of this war have pushed is that the Iranian regime’s sole aim is to develop nuclear weapons as fast as possible and then to immediately launch them at Israel, even though that would assuredly result in the Israelis destroying Iran with most or all of their arsenal of around a hundred nuclear warheads.
This is rarely said outright because it’s absurd. If Iran’s leaders were truly not just willing but actively trying to sacrifice their own lives, the lives of their families, and the lives of most Iranians, along with the thousands of years worth of historically and culturally significant sites in their country, in order to bring Israel down with them, they would be acting differently.
They certainly wouldn’t have chosen to not build nuclear weapons despite being only a few years, months, or even weeks away—as Israeli and American officials have claimed. And they wouldn’t have agreed to—or been trying to again agree to—stringent, internationally-enforced inspections and restrictions on their civilian nuclear programs just to get some sanctions relief for the people they’re allegedly ready to sacrifice to Israeli nukes.
The Iranian regime is absolutely immoral and authoritarian (that’s what powerful governments are, after all) and they clearly view Israel as their enemy. But many try to portray Iran’s hatred of Israel as some kind of thousand-year-old blood feud. It isn’t.
As Trita Parsi details extensively in his book Treacherous Alliance, Iran and Israel have allied up and helped each other out numerous times when the dynamic in the Middle East made it advantageous to both—including after the 1979 revolution.
What the Israeli-Iranian rivalry really is is a classic geopolitical struggle for regional dominance dressed up by both sides as some kind of inescapable religious war.
That is truly why Israel and its allies in Washington do not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Because a nuclear-armed Iran will be much harder to exert pressure on and will all but guarantee that Israel will never be a true unipolar power in the Middle East.
It makes sense, then, why the American politicians and media figures who are obsessed with maintaining a global empire, whatever the domestic cost, see a war with Iran as being in their interest.
But for the economically-struggling American people who will be forced to spend trillions of additional dollars and sacrifice the lives of potentially thousands more of their children, siblings, and parents, a brand new war to protect Israel’s nuclear monopoly in the Middle East is clearly not worth it.
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06-19-25 savo
pillz...
DT and his aids seem to have forgotten... again...that there is another 300 pound gorila in the ring...who has not made a move yet but that does not mean it will not..
It imports 1.8mm barrels of oil per day from Iran... if DT damages that export capability the Gorila will get very angry.
Remember there are two axis of evil. An one of the chiefs can not make a move without expecting the other will too.
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06-19-25 pillz
| US President Donald Trump told senior aides that he approved of plans to attack Iran, but he is waiting to see if Iran will abandon its nuclear program before giving the final order, three sources familiar with the discussions said to the Wall Street Journal. |
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