05-07-26 pillz
Abu Dhabi Doo! Allahu Akbar.
//
:-)) |
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05-07-26 spal
The IRGC may be using the "enemy" tag to avoid admitting that a regional neighbor (like the UAE) successfully penetrated their airspace.
Abu Dhabi Doo! Allahu Akbar. |
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05-07-26 spal
Regional speculation (including reports via WANA and field accounts from Bandar Abbas) has heavily pointed toward the UAE Air Force.
The Motive: This incident follows the May 4 Iranian missile and drone strikes on Fujairah, which targeted key oil infrastructure and injured Indian nationals. A strike on the Bahman Qeshm pier—a vital commercial and passenger hub—would be a symmetric "eye-for-an-eye" response. |
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05-07-26 spal
| Israel has issued a denial, while unverified reports strongly suggest UAE involvement. |
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05-07-26 pillz
Iran exchanges fire with 'the enemy' near Strait of Hormuz
Iranian forces exchanged fire with an unspecified "enemy" in Bandar Abbas near the Strait of Hormuz, Fars reported.
During the incident, Fars reported, the Bahman Qeshm pier was targeted by enemy fire. |
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05-07-26 spal
| Explosions heard near Bandar Abbas City - Fars |
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05-07-26 spal
Axios has reported an “imminent” Iran deal five times in 19 days. No deals.
Same reporter, sources, White House & Israeli intel contacts.
===
DoJ inbound ... |
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05-07-26 spal
"Corruption is only bad when I am not involved in it but as long as I am benefitting then it is not bad".
Dr. David Oginde, the Chairperson of Kenya’s Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC). |
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05-07-26 spal
If the PGSA (Persian Gulf Strait Authority) is inevitable, the GCC’s diplomatic goal is to transform it from an Iranian agency into a "Regional Maritime Council."
In the private Pakistan-mediated channels, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are reportedly insisting that any "Security Fees" or tolls collected must be managed by a joint board that includes GCC representatives. |
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05-07-26 carib
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05-07-26 leopardo
Ok Carib, that is personal of course.
One can be in profit or still in loss but my reasoning does not change. |
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05-07-26 carib
Leo: no longer in loss, now.
Point is how large can the profit be.. |
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05-07-26 leopardo
Carib methink that anyhow recovery will be higher than what represented today by bond prices.
Us Bondholders, Russian Bondholders, Chavistas Bondholders and Colores too want to recover losses.The higher recovery will be the better for everyone.
Vnz is an extremely rich country, plenty of ways to increase recovery if there is the will to do so, and IMHO there is.
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05-07-26 savo
it will...
only problem in sight is the evil opposition. |
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05-07-26 carib
| Venezuela bonds had very high yields.. because the country was very badly managed for very long time. if managed like a middle eastern petro-state.. it should yield 6% in US$.. |
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05-07-26 savo
| the exit yield is the same thing... falls as the deal progresses... now may be 15%... and at the date of exchange may be 6%. |
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05-07-26 carib
I guess the NPV depends on the exit yield.. which depends on the assessed long term credibility of the debtor..
How long will the "US protectorate" setting last?
If long term, yields can be low.. |
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05-07-26 savo
| the npv depends on the discount rate... and the discount rate falls as the deal progresses... |
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05-07-26 carib
We are speculating here.. which is fun.
I saw speculations we might get a new long bond for the defaulted principal (with some haircut), a new zero coupon 10 Y bond for the PDI (with implicit haircut) and an oil warrant that pays when the veny barrel is priced above a certain level..
The important thing is the NPV of the package, I guess. |
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05-07-26 leopardo
| Principal and PDI will both be haircutted but if the haircut is not too high the joint recovery will indeed be higher than today's prices |
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05-07-26 savo
| leo.. i would be very happy with no haircut and a warrant in lieu of accrued and unpaid... as long as the principal is recognized in full. |
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05-07-26 leopardo
| The instrument will be issued for PDI Savo and it will increase recovery value no matter how you slice it |
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05-07-26 savo
leo...
fwiw.. i am not a fun of oil production or gdp warrants. They remove the sense of urgency, if detachable become illiquid and difficult to price, if not detachable complicate the pricing of the main obligation and are an invitation to statistical tricks (remember argie).
I prefer the debtor to have time to put the house in order but at the same time feel the heat of upcoming payments.
There could be an oil price warrant in case there is a windfall revenue but as an addendum not subtracting from the main obligation.
I would say step up coupons, a grace period and amortization over time should be enough.
I would be very happy with a 30% haircut on claim... a step up starting at 3% and moving to 6%, 5 years grace, 10 years amort.
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05-07-26 leopardo
| We should NEVER EVER FORGET. |
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05-07-26 leopardo
We should never forget that in the restructuring offer there will certainly be an instrument tied to oil(warrant) and or oil production.
This will increase substantially the Recovery Value of both VNZ and PDV |
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05-07-26 spal
The "Kabuki" Overlay
If the China-US "thaw" is a theatrical success, expect:
The Spot Price to drop violently (as the "War Premium" evaporates).
The Strip to remain steady or rise (as global demand expectations improve with tech access).
E&P Shares to stay flat (they never priced in $140 anyway).
Services Shares to rally (stability encourages long-term infrastructure spend over short-term "survival" drilling). |
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05-07-26 spal
What to watch for:
The "Kabuki" framing of the current crisis is increasingly the consensus among institutional OSINT analysts and "Physical Market" veterans. The May 14–15, 2026, Beijing Summit is really the gravitational center for the recent "Strategic Pause" in the Persian Gulf.
Here is the structural math behind the "Grand Bargain" being choreographed for next week:
1. The Currency: Tech for Stability
The primary "trade" on the table isn't just about oil; it’s about Compute.
The Ask: China wants the "Bessent AI Accord"—a loosening of the current US restrictions on high-end NVIDIA/H100-class AI chips and a reduction in the "Section 301" tech tariffs.
The Give: In return, China acts as the "Guarantor" of the PGSA (Persian Gulf Strait Authority). They use their leverage as Iran's largest oil buyer to transition the Strait from a "Kinetic War Zone" to a "Sovereign Toll Road" that looks like an Iranian victory but functions as a global energy stabilization.
2. The "Face-Saving" Chasm
For Trump, the Beijing Summit provides a high-stakes platform to declare a "Historical Peace" without lifting the blockade.
The US Narrative: "We bombed them into submission, and now they are signing our MoU."
The Iranian/Chinese Narrative: "We resisted the 'Losing War' and forced the US to accept Iranian sovereignty over the Strait."
The Physical Reality: The "Dark Fleet" continues to deliver Iranian oil to China under the nose of the US Navy, while the ISM 84.6 inflation tidal wave is managed through a "China-brokered" price ceiling.
3. The "Axios Memo" as a Theatrical Prop
The "American Wish List" (the Axios memo) being dismissed by Tehran is a classic act of pre-summit signaling. By rejecting it publicly now, Tehran allows China to play the "Hero Mediator" next week, "extracting" concessions from the US that were likely already agreed upon in the secret Witkoff-Kushner-Bessent channel.
The 48-Hour Prediction
If this is indeed Kabuki, expect the following "Stage Directions" before May 14:
The "Miracle" Announcement: A joint statement from Beijing and Riyadh regarding "Safe Passage Guarantees."
The Tech Pivot: A WSJ "leak" suggesting the US is reconsidering the GENIUS Act restrictions in exchange for "Verified Regional Stability."
The Kinetic "Final Shot": One last "show of force" from CENTCOM to prove they aren't retreating before the diplomatic "thaw" begins. |
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05-07-26 spal
Readout:
If the MoU is not signed by tomorrow morning (May 7), the U.S. posture will likely shift back to Kinetic Interdiction.
The "Strategic Pause" is a 48-hour window that is rapidly closing. Iran’s refusal to acknowledge the U.S. terms—while simultaneously bureaucratizing the Strait—suggests they are betting that the U.S. "ISM Prices Paid" (inflation) will force a U.S. retreat before their own "Physical Wall" collapses.
The footing is offensive on both sides, merely wearing different masks. The U.S. is using the blockade as a slow-motion siege; Iran is using the PGSA as a permanent annexation. |
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05-07-26 spal
Vic:
"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." — George Orwell
Let me check with the Bureau of Continuous Warfare ... I'll be right back ... |
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05-07-26 victor
| spal, are they still going to war? usa-iran? |
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