12-24-25 leopardo
| Venz / Pdvsa buy or sell??? |
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12-24-25 carib
| I remember 2002. But, yet again.. the only relevant action we can take.. is deciding to buy or sell. |
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12-24-25 savo
FWIW.. I do not like the trend in argie's current account. Argie should be posting a CA surplus of magnitude:
The current account posted a US$1,581mn deficit in the third quarter of 2025. The negative figure extended the first two quarters’ deficit (-US$5.6bn and -US$2.8bn, respectively in the first and second quarter) and represents a notable deterioration compared to the surplus recorded in every quarter of 2024 (for the full year, the current account posted a US$5.7bn surplus in 2024, about 0.9% of GDP).
That compares wwith a strong CA surplus in Ecuador:
We revise 2025 current account surplus to 5% of GDP, and 2026 to 4.2%. The 0.3%-pt revision in the current account surplus is mainly driven by higher non-oil exports growth YTD. Meanwhile, oil exports have continued to decline, driven by lower oil prices, offsetting in part non-oil exports momentum. Next year, we anticipate a slowdown in non-oil export growth, which will lower the trade balance to US$5.4bn, while remittances are expected to moderate to a still elevated US $5.5bn. Against this backdrop, we forecast a substantial, albeit declining, current account surplus of 4.2% of GDP in 2026. |
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12-24-25 savo
carib.. I support opponents of dictatorships
i support them too...
What I do not support are failed strategies that after 23 years do not manage to achieve the objective.
The first attempt to remove Chavism by force was in 2002. Imagine...
I would love to see Maduro and Padrino enjoying their riches in Cuba...but until that happens I would prefer to see veni producing and exporting oil, Venezuelans going around their lives without sanctions, imports and export flowing in and out normally the air space free of US intervention ...last but not least... access to capital markets unimpeded and bonds current.
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12-24-25 spal
Show business kids making movies of themselves
You know they don't give a fuck about anybody else ...
Show Biz Kids
Song by Steely Dan ‧ 1973
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12-24-25 spal
but i have never in my life seen an opposition that wishes to see its country invaded by a foreign power..
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Well this happens now because Latin America is run by a liberal bourgeoisie based in Miami. Miami is the de facto and approaching the de jure capital of LatAm. |
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12-24-25 spal
Whoops ...
Should American troops enter Venezuela, they would face an insurgency that could prove to be more organized, more experienced, and no less lethal than the one encountered in Iraq. The Colombian Marxist-Leninist rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), is anti-American, battle-hardened, and deeply embedded in regional smuggling networks. Unlike the Islamist fighters of Iraq, the ELN has several decades of fighting experience in inhospitable terrains and enforces a disciplined command structure. The group also enjoys cross-border sanctuary in Colombia and Venezuela, and maintains close coordination with Nicolás Maduro’s security forces. Any American deployment on Venezuelan soil would almost certainly provoke a prolonged and punishing insurgency from the ELN and its affiliates ...
In all of these wars, US forces have failed to achieve decisive victories against irregular adversaries, regardless of whether that is because they are constrained by laws of war and ethical norms or stymied by the fundamental difficulty of identifying and defeating clandestine fighters. Entering into another military conflict with a formidable insurgency risk would plunge America into yet another forever war built on the flimsiest of pretexts.
https://www.compactmag.com/article/the-coming-venezuelan-insurgency/ |
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12-24-25 carib
You can also look at the case of the cuban diaspora.
As a citizen, I support opponents of dictatorships.
As an investor, I rationally merely seek profit. |
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12-24-25 savo
ok carib.. I accept your point... italians abroad colluded during WW2 with the US...
I am not sure the case has much resemblance to today's veni.
But accept it is a matter of opinion.
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12-24-25 carib
Savo: no, I am referring to the anti-fascist opposition, in exile in New York, London, Moscow.. or in clandestine activities in Italy.
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12-24-25 savo
meanwhile.. today may be the day gold crosses the 4,500 barrier...or may be it is the day it pauses.
The funny thing is that while the US pursues a policy of dollar destruction... it is the country with the largest known gold reserves..8,100 tons.
8,100 * 32,000 * 4,500... a nice 1.2 Trn dollars there...
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12-24-25 savo
carib.. i do not know much about the opponents of fascism as i wasn't around.. but I imagine that you refer to people fighting it in the trenches and giving their lives in the process...
The opposition i am referring to is the one in Oslo, Miami and Madrid.
Because the ones in Veni does not support a military invasion or Caribbean piracy.
This case very specific... the opposition in veni is not the one that the US listens to...they are in the ground.. they know a compromise has to be found and they do not intend to deliver veni on a silver plate to Trump's family office and his associates.
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12-24-25 panasonic
"the point is made."
And a fair one, as the migration crisis of 8M venezolanos became a regional problem.
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12-24-25 carib
For the record: I disagree with Trump on the theory that the US has a "casus belli" because of stolen oil or drug trafficking...
but, once again, my own ideas on what is right and what is wrong.. are irrelevant in the matter at hand.
We appear to live in world where right and wrong have stopped being relevant, and got replaced by what is expedient for the stronger party.
We have to navigate the waters in front of us, not the ideal waters we wish to see in front of us. |
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12-24-25 carib
Katz, president-elect of Chile, just spoke out loud what many latin-americans think: if trumps takes military action to get rid of Maduro and gang.. he does a big favour to the whole region.
I could go on, but I think the point is made.
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12-24-25 carib
out of context: there is an jewish orthodox sect that considers the State of Israel a blasphemy, because in their opinion Israel should only be re-established by a Messiah.
They supported the PLO. |
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12-24-25 carib
| Savo: the opponents of fascism were very happy to see Italy invaded by the americans... |
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12-23-25 savo
carib.. i am not sure the example works... this is not a boar roaming alone in the forest... it is a country of 30 mm people.. that needs to export its products and import what it needs to run normally... that has schools, hospital, nursing homes, production facilities, electricity generation, industry, agriculture...etc.. it is a full economy with real people needing to make a living in it...
Maduro is the scorpion... does what scorpions are supposed to do... but i have never in my life seen an opposition that wishes to see its country invaded by a foreign power.. and celebrates when that foreign power steals its oil. MCM called Trump a champion after he stole those cargoes.
The opposition should be opposing this actions. Many of us have lived in military governments. I have never seen the opposition in any of those countries ask for a foreign invasion. |
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12-23-25 carib
| PS: I am just pointing out facts, not saying I like bullies and might trumping right. My (our) personal preferences are irrelevant in this context, except when they lead to buying/selling decisions. |
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12-23-25 carib
Savo: of course the best outcome of any conflict is the one where both sides profit.
But if I like to eat venison, I have a good gun in my hands, see a fat boar nearby, shoot it and roast it.. it is not a good outcome for the boar, but it is fine with me.
I wonder what kind of "negotiation" I could envisage with the said boar..
In this case, the two sides are most unequal, and there is no "level playing field". |
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12-23-25 savo
one wonders what are the chances of having such an incompetent administration ...
A Fed chairman that is intrinsically ignorant on the most basic elements of central banking and finance... remember "transitory".. "symmetric"... and now "ample" reserves to hide new QE ..aren't 7 trn reserves not "ample" enough?
A president that has converted the WH into his family office
A sec of State who wishes to wage war against everybody everywhere
A sec of Defense that mobilizes the largest armada the world has ever seen at a time when the budget deficit is at 2 trn dollars or 50% of the budget and the world is running from the dollar and the USTs
a Sec of the treasury whose only aim seems to be to keep the stock market at an ATH to help his bodies in Wall Street
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12-23-25 savo
| meanwhile... Silver at 71... courtesy of Trumponomics |
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12-23-25 savo
i hope for a peaceful resolution of the veni problem.. no more threats, no bombs... normal old style diplomatic negotiation in civilized terms by people that are capable of accepting the existence of the other side.
That is the only way in which our bonds will go up close to par. |
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12-23-25 spal
| Carib and Savo - yes - Abrahms needs to try a lot harder. I guess he assumes that he is god-like and that largely he is talking with idiots. Given the degeneration of the Press he has a point. |
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12-23-25 savo
Abrams should know by now that the essence of an economic transaction is that both parties can win. Whoever sells B in exchange for A regards A as more valuable than B. And whoever sells A in exchange of B regards B as more valuable than A.
Subjective Theory of Value ..two hundred years old..Carl Menger.
Both parties can win because they end up with what they consider more valuable for them.
Resolving the veni problem required clever and flexible people... not bulldogs.
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12-23-25 carib
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12-23-25 carib
SPAL: I actually think the statement is closed to a tautology.
But I agree that with Trump one never knows. |
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12-23-25 victor
Rusia emite una orden de detención contra el histórico campeón mundial de ajedrez Garri Kasparov
Acusa al exajedrecista, opositor al régimen de Putin, de apología e incitación al terrorismo a través de los medios de comunicación |
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12-23-25 spal
| Does the guy talk just to make sure he can still move his mouth? |
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12-23-25 spal
Mi impresión es que es una pequeña guerra entre Trump y Maduro. Maduro va a ganar o Trump va a ganar, los dos no pueden ganar», comentó Elliott Abrams.
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I can hardly believe the degree of insight here ...
LOL |
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12-23-25 spal
| Vic - yep - that was one unbalanced guy, acting irrationally. |
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12-23-25 victor
spal, the video is in that X link.
he was nuts, rip. |
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12-23-25 carib
| «Mi impresión es que en la Casa Blanca no les gusta la expresión ‘cambio de régimen’, pero es el objetivo. Maduro ha ofrecido cambios en el sistema de petróleo, ha ofrecido una vez que iba a salir del poder en lugar de Delcy Rodríguez, y nada así ha sido aceptado por el presidente Trump. Mi impresión es que es una pequeña guerra entre Trump y Maduro. Maduro va a ganar o Trump va a ganar, los dos no pueden ganar», comentó Elliott Abrams |
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12-23-25 carib
Indeed. Veny bond prices need actual hard decisions to move.
with absence of decisions, they might float a bit lower, or fall back in case of "cubanisation". |
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12-23-25 carib
| Gold beating bitcoins, at last. |
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12-23-25 savo
spal.. platinum up 7% yesterday and 7% today
whatever platinum is |
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12-23-25 spal
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12-23-25 spal
| Vic - pretty much he did - if you have seen the video of the crash. |
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12-23-25 victor
pana, video.
Vince Zampella maybe thought real life was a video game.
//
The creator of Call of Duty and Battlefield 6 was killed in a car crash
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/2003352531196338283
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12-23-25 savo
meanwhile veni/pdvsa bonds off highs
can't sustain only on headlines and threats. |
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12-23-25 savo
leo.. m not a realistic request when they guy has a 50MM prices tag on his head.
The smart thing i would say would be to take Maduro's offer... 3 years without sanctions and he leaves.
No more circus.. not more international terrorism... unnecessary dead.. unnecessary expenses... |
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12-23-25 panasonic
| Vic, agree the guy is a a train wreck. |
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12-23-25 leopardo
Trump says it would be 'smart' for Venezuela's Maduro to leave power
By Steve Holland
December 23, 20259:44 AM GMT+1Updated 3 hours ago |
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12-23-25 victor
pana, sanchez is literally destroying the psoe.
sanchez was killed in extremadura. this used to be an easy win for the psoe. not any longer.
last election, 2 years ago, the psoe made lows, with only 28 seats of 65.
on sunday, the psoe lost 10 more seats, making even lower lows:
only 18 seats of 65.
this used to be psoe territory, easy victory.
now other psoe members are pressuring sanchez to do something about it, as the psoe is going to get killed in future elections- all over the country. |
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12-23-25 savo
| El Ministerio de Asuntos Exteriores de Rusia desmintió categóricamente este lunes 22 de diciembre el reporte difundido por la agencia Associated Press (AP) sobre una supuesta evacuación de familiares de diplomáticos de su sede en Caracas. En declaraciones ofrecidas a la agencia estatal TASS, la misión diplomática fue tajante al respecto y dijo que «la información difundida por la agencia AP sobre la supuesta evacuación de la embajada rusa de Venezuela es mentira» |
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12-23-25 pillz
Novo Nordisk Gets US Approval for Wegovy Obesity Pill
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-22/novo-nordisk-gets-us-approval-for-wegovy-obesity-pill?srnd=homepage-americas |
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12-23-25 pillz
U.S. plans to sell or reserve oil seized from Venezuela
Mon Dec 22 21:51:25 2025 EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth offered on Monday, December 22, 2025, a message to the media after the national security meeting.
In the announcement given from the Mar-a-Lago residence, Donald Trump made reference to the oil seized from Venezuela on Sunday 21 in the Caribbean Sea and said that the crude will be sold or could be reserved.
Oil seized from Venezuela will be sold or reserved, Trump reveals
After holding a private national security meeting with Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump spoke about the oil seized from Venezuela in the Caribbean Sea.
In a press conference, the President of the United States was questioned about the naval actions of Sunday, December 21, and specifically about the oil that was seized, which he said will be sold or reserved.
On this, Donald Trump indicated that it is planned to sell the oil or integrate it to the country's strategic reserves, the same case of the ships that were secured during the operation.
He stated that while in previous years and governments allowed the United States to be robbed, now there is a zero tolerance policy for the illegal trafficking of hydrocarbons.
He also confirmed that a dialogue has already been established with the U.S. oil companies that would receive the crude oil that was seized, but did not offer further details on the agreements that were reached.
However, he revealed that in the conversations with the US companies that do business in Venezuela, the subject of an eventual "post Maduro" scenario to improve their operations has been addressed.
Trump announces construction of 2 new war battleships
The message in which he referred to the fate of the oil seized from Venezuela, was called by President Donald Trump to announce the construction of 2 new battleships of war.
Also accompanied by the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the U.S. President emphasized that the new naval combat frigates will be state-of-the-art, as they will have unique details such as these:
The 2 battleships will be even more powerful than the historic Iowa, so far considered the strongest of their type
They will have unprecedented firepower with 100 times more firepower than any previous vessel, as they will have advanced weaponry such as lasers and cruise missiles.
Will have combined speed and power, as they will be faster than any other ever built
They are specifically designed for combat operations, with a substantial missile complement.
They are estimated to have a displacement of 30 to 40 thousand tons, which places them in the category of super-ships.
In view of this, Donald Trump asserted that with the construction of the new battleships, it will be possible to "maintain the supremacy of the United States" by reactivating its naval capacity.
"We are going to strengthen the respect we have around the world. A year and a half ago we were laughed at, now we enjoy unprecedented respect."
Likewise, the U.S. president stressed that the medium-term plan involves building a total of 10 new combat battleships, but highlighted that for the immediate term it will start with 2. |
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12-23-25 savo
somebody has to pay the deployment in the Caribbean of the largest armada the world has seen ...
by the looks of it, it wont be MCM...otherwise DT would not be stealing veni oil.
It is very sad to see the pathetic country into which the US has turned.
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12-23-25 carib
China is not going to get involved beyond words in the caribbean.
But they could act differently towards Taiwan. They do not look to be in a hurry.
Brave new world. |
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12-23-25 carib
The U.S. Coast Guard was pursuing an oil tanker with links to Venezuela on Sunday, but the vessel is still moving along, Trump confirmed on Monday.
“We’ll end up getting it. Yeah, we’re actually pursuing it. Can you imagine? Because it came from the wrong location, it came out of Venezuela and it was sanctioned,” the president told reporters. |
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12-23-25 panasonic
| Vic, I suppose "support" means they will give Maduro same treatment as given to Assad ;-)) |
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