02-10-26 savo
pana... systematic trading will end up disappearing the moment AI takes over...
it will be back to the good old days of special situations discretionary trading... |
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02-10-26 panasonic
| Spal, the ones that I've been offered trade futures on Ninja, would like something less soecific. |
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02-10-26 spal
| Panas ... let me know what you end up doing there. |
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02-10-26 spal
Added to FECCF position ... incredibly illiquid ... sometimes I make the market ... but my calculation of liquidation value is $12 ... I may trade out sooner ... but market for it is very spooky ... schpal stock only.
Calculation:
They have sold O&G biz to Geopark ... soon after this closes they will dividend USD 5.32. There is also a performance payment later (on acquired assets from Geopark of 35 cents.
Total so far $5.67.
They (Frontera) have an infrastructure biz remaining. It has 3 pieces. Port (100% owned) in Cartagena ... not the main port but one called Puerto Bahia. Bahia does 2 things ... 55% of all cars (roll on, roll off) and is in a venture with Gasco to do LNG.
These 2 things will earn it 25 million EBITDA per annum.
The other infrastructure thing they do is a pipeline JV with Ecopetrol to the oil fields. They collected 69.5 million in cash dividends from this in 2025.
They are spending on a couple of refinements to this infrastructure biz. I think it can throw off $75 million cash per year.
They have 69.5 million shares outstanding ... thus $1.07 per share per annum.
The infrastructure biz is all nice and tidy in sep. sub and packaged for sale.
Say 7 times earnings ... call it $7 dollars per share.
They also have a call in ownership of a drilling claim in Guyana. They sunk $400+ million into it, but ended up with a dispute with the crooks there. They would probably win when it goes to arbitration. I am not counting the value from this.
Thus my calc is $12.67 for each share. You can discount this for execution risk and the Colombian neighborhood and lag in execution etc.
Shares trade at $7.43 currently ... thanks to my bid ...
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02-10-26 panasonic
Spal, I'm looking for a robot to do my trades, it will have better results than me for sure.
Really good ones are in hands of the big guys, but me need simple bot. |
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02-10-26 spal
| Schrong counter trend now on Schwab ,,, but you have to move up schtops |
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02-10-26 spal
| Stuff moving too quickly and violently ... algos in charge ... vs schpal |
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02-10-26 spal
| Bought Schwab ... for the bounce ... trailing a schtops |
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02-10-26 pillz
U.S. Secretary of Energy to travel to Venezuela to discuss future of PDVSA
Tue Feb 10 13:42:13 2026 EDT
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that he plans to visit Venezuela soon to begin talks with officials about the future leadership and management of the country.
In an exclusive interview with Politico, Wright said that during his visit he hopes to meet with interim President Delcy Rodríguez and tour some oil fields. He noted that the Venezuelan oil company, which three decades ago was considered a highly professional and technically competent enterprise, has lost those capabilities over the years.
"PDVSA was a highly professional and technically competent oil and gas company 30 years ago, and it has not been so for quite some time," he said.
Oil management and political transition
The U.S. Secretary of Energy assured that the capture of Nicolás Maduro was not motivated by energy objectives, but rather by regional security considerations.
"This was a geopolitical problem of a country that posed a threat to all its neighbors, a threat to the Western Hemisphere," he said.
However, the official acknowledged that the recovery of the oil sector could become a key factor in stabilizing the Venezuelan economy and facilitating a democratic transition. Wright said there had been no change in Washington's plan to promote democratic elections in Venezuela and expressed his expectation that these elections could be held within 18 to 24 months.
He indicated that this process will require cooperation with the interim authorities and support from economic instruments, such as the reactivation of the energy sector.
Energy Secretary bets on foreign investment and legal changes
Wright explained that PDVSA's mismanagement has become an obstacle to attracting foreign investment, especially under the legal framework that requires international companies to partner with the Venezuelan state-owned company. He added that the Venezuelan state-owned company has been accused of corruption and administrative deficiencies.
The Energy Secretary highlighted that the interim authorities recently approved amendments to the oil law that allow foreign companies greater control over their operations and cash flow, which he described as a positive sign in the new relationship between the United States and Venezuela.
"I think the legislation that was passed fairly quickly is a gesture of improvement from the outset of this new relationship," he said.
However, he acknowledged that investors still demand additional guarantees, such as clear property rights and neutral mechanisms for dispute resolution.
The initiative has drawn criticism within the United States, both from oil and gas producers and Republican lawmakers, who believe that increasing Venezuelan supply could put further pressure on crude oil prices. Wright downplayed these objections, describing them as part of the workings of capitalism.
He argued that Trump's energy policy seeks to increase global production to reduce prices and benefit U.S. consumers, even if it creates more competition for companies in the sector.
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02-10-26 pillz
| sold a schmall put options on EWY , soo if it go down from today -1.1% , I will go more aggressively ,,, savo when one sell puts , the exchange rate is insignificant |
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02-10-26 savo
FWIW.. it took 3.5 ounces of gold to buy one Kospi at the turn of the century...
it costs 1 ounce of gold today to buy one Kospi.
Loss in kospi when measured in real money 71%..
but needs to add another 20% for loss of Korean won vs US$. |
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02-10-26 carib
Pill:
1) I bought Samsung Electronics years ago. it now tripled in value.
2) yes, it is a "small percentage" that can be taken care by specialised small boutiques, no need of large "wealth managers" there. |
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02-10-26 pillz
But I would not trust AI to set up or manage a complex tax optimisation schemes that relies on discretionary arrangements with providers and competent authorities.
//
but this is a small percentage of this bizzz |
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02-10-26 pillz
South Korean stocks have yet to close their long-held discount against peers even after a $1.7 trillion rally, with earnings growth making a case for the world-beating advance to continue, money managers say.
The still-cheap valuations are behind Wall Street’s bullish views on Kospi this year, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. projecting as much as 7,500 — a more than 41% rise from here.
Korean bulls expect the rally to extend as the push for corporate governance reforms gathers pace, with the next likely step a mandatory cancelation of treasury shares via the commercial act revision.
..//
I like this Korean discount, but it is already years so, but still I am tempted to take long the index , any suggestions ?? |
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02-10-26 carib
| I guess most "bread and butter" advisory services could be put out of business by AI. But I would not trust AI to set up or manage a complex tax optimisation schemes that relies on discretionary arrangements with providers and competent authorities. |
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02-10-26 spal
| Pilly - very interesting. |
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02-10-26 pillz
legal services
//
I use them at chatgpt , it's very efficient ... |
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02-10-26 pillz
Tax planning and wealth management stocks sank Tuesday after financial software provider Altruist Corp. launched an artificial intelligence tool for creating tax strategies, sparking concerns that traditional players could be at risk.
Shares of Charles Schwab Corp. fell as much as 8.1%, with other wealth management stocks also taking a hit. Raymond James Financial Inc. dropped 8.5%, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. slid 8.4% and Stifel Financial Corp. sank 7.2%.
Altruist’s new tool, unveiled on Tuesday, helps financial advisors personalize strategies for clients and create pay stubs, account statements and other documents, the company said in a statement.
“The selloff appears tied to broader concerns about AI disrupting the financial advice and wealth management model,” said Neil Sipes, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Investor focus today is “likely centering on concerns around efficiencies being competed away, fee compression long-term and potential market share shifts.”
Insurance brokers’ stocks had a similar meltdown Monday after Insurify’s new rate-comparison AI tool raised concerns about those companies’ businesses.
The threat to traditional business models across industries from the advent of new AI-powered applications has started spreading into many corners of the stock market, starting with the software firms. The jitters really struck investors last week after AI startup Anthropic released tools aimed at automating work tasks across areas ranging from legal services to financial research. |
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02-10-26 spal
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02-10-26 spal
| CRS - position closed for now. Stock is consolidating. |
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02-10-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
·
2h
India Coast Guard is getting on the action and seized 3 shadow tankers (OFAC sanctioned) involved in the Iranian oil trade. |
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02-10-26 spal
Savo - bitcoin is portrayed as "purer" than a token. It is somehow the "Ur" code. You can tokenize against it ... and that is done already, but the purist view is that you have it "hard" in a cold wallet or you don't.
I think it will retain some value as long as the hardliners believe that it will and in some cases you will never be able to change that belief.
It is not subject to debasement as far as I can see.
It is subject to wrench attacks. |
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02-10-26 carib
| Savo: no BTC lovers here, I guess. |
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02-10-26 savo
victor.. we all know that by now... regarding gold the calculation is that around 220,000 tons exist above ground... and annual production is around 3,500 tons... ie 1.5% growth per annum... in line with world gdp and population growth... so flat as well.
the kind of comment I would like to hear is not about data that we know but why would anybody want tokenized nothing vs tokenized gold. |
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02-10-26 carib
| Victor, at present, what is the cost of mining one BTC? |
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02-10-26 victor
savo, any comment?
//
21 million max. full stop.
only 1 million left to mine. full stop.
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02-10-26 savo
now that Tether gold exists...what is exactly the reason of BTC to exist?
tether is tokenized gold...what is BTC? tokenized nothing?
In the original days of cryto... BTC was ... let's say...tokenized scarcity... but with thousands of crytos... scarcity is not a concept anymore even if btc was the first one and that made it special... not anymore
If one can have tokenized gold... and at some point tokenized silver, copper, uranium...coffee... nickel...why have tokenized nothing?
If this argument is correct... btc will continue to desinflate... and eventually go to zero..
any comment? |
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02-10-26 spal
| Yes they should dollarize. |
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02-09-26 carib
Asdrúbal Oliveros, economista y consultor empresarial, advirtió que Venezuela arrastra casi medio siglo de inflación crónica, con una inercia que condiciona el comportamiento de empresas y consumidores. Esa dinámica, explicó, impide que los precios bajen incluso cuando el tipo de cambio se estabiliza, porque las expectativas de reposición siguen dominadas por la incertidumbre. Según su estimación, la inflación anualizada entre enero de 2025 y enero de 2026 se acerca al 600%, un nivel que calificó como propio de una «hiperinflación temprana».
En ese contexto, la dolarización total aparece como una alternativa que, aunque restrictiva, podría anclar expectativas en un entorno institucional frágil. Oliveros la comparó con un tratamiento médico que, pese a sus efectos secundarios, ofrece beneficios inmediatos a quien enfrenta un problema severo. |
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02-09-26 spal
| Savo - good to hear. That jibes with what I am seeing. There is more juice to squeeze there. |
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02-09-26 patient-trader
Google plans 100-year Sterling bond.
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02-09-26 savo
| Transocean announced a definitive agreement to acquire Valaris in an all-stock transaction valued at ~$5.8bn. The pro forma company will operate 73 rigs, including 33 ultra-deepwater drillships, nine semisubmersibles, and 31 jackups, with an enterprise value of ~$17bn. We view this consolidation transaction as complementary for the offshore drilling operators and positive for the broader sector. RIG expects $200mm in identified cost synergies by 2028, which are additive to the driller's ongoing cost savings initiatives. Transocean expects the deal to be accretive to cash flow and accelerate deleveraging, with a targeted leverage ratio of about 1.5x within 24 months of closing. The pro forma market capitalization is estimated at $12.3bn. Under the terms of the agreement, Valaris shareholders will receive 15.235 shares of Transocean stock for each Valaris share, resulting in ownership of approximately 53% of RIG stock for each Transocean shareholder and 47% for Valaris shareholders on a fully diluted basis. The transaction, unanimously approved by both boards, will be carried out by way of a court-approved scheme of arrangement under Bermuda law and is expected to close in 2H26, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. In addition, the parties received shareholder support agreements from Perestroika AS which owns approximately 9% of RIG, and Famatown Finance Limited and Oak Hill Advisors, which collectively own approximately 18% of VAL. The combined company will be led by Transocean’s CEO Keelan Adamson, with Jeremy Thigpen serving as Executive Chairman, and will remain incorporated in Switzerland with its primary office in Houston. |
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02-09-26 savo
spal.. i ve been holding a number of HY energy bonds including oil&gas services for quite a while, including nabors, transocean and some midstream and E&P bonds......they have tightened nicely.
it is a very undervalued sector....
On the HG side check exxon..up 30% YTD...
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02-09-26 panasonic
Spal, Savo tks for your input.
I'm growth investor mostly concentraded in AI via call spreads, so my downside is limited.
Have positions in precious metals, Oil, momentum names, all is part of my diversification.
Would like to hear from value investors, bcz UBI would affect sales of many value darlings, is this something they are preparing for? |
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02-09-26 spal
| The tables are now turning. |
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02-09-26 spal
Oil Services Stocks Stage Historic Comeback – Expert Highlights An 'Accumulating Strength'
03:39 PM CST, February 04, 2026
For nearly 20 years, energy names underperformed technology as capital chased scalability, innovation and margins. The tables are now turning.
Oilfield services stocks have erupted into the spotlight in 2026, with the VanEck Oil Services ETF (NYSE:OIH) rallying nearly 30% year-to-date through Feb. 4—making it the best-performing industry group so far this year.
According to Jeff Krimmel, owner of Krimmel Strategy Group, this is no ordinary momentum-driven rally.
The move reflects a structural re-rating of oil-related equities that could reshape capital flows and investment priorities for the next decade.
“Oilfield services is recovering from a prolonged period of acute investor bearishness,” Krimmel said in exclusive interview with Benzinga on Wednesday.
Why The Investor Rush In Oil Services Stocks?
The rotation is dramatic.
While the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) has barely moved in 2026, the OIH ETF has soared on broad strength across its top constituents.
The top five holdings—SLB (NYSE:SLB), Baker Hughes Co. (NASDAQ:BKR), Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL), TechnipFMC Plc (NYSE:FTI) and Tenaris S.A. (NYSE:TS)—are each up between 20% and 30% year to date.
That performance contrasts sharply with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (NYSE:IGV), which is firmly in the red as investors rotate out of growth and into value-linked energy plays.
Year to date, oil services stocks have outpaced software by nearly 60 percentage points, pushing their relative performance ratio to its highest level since November 2023.
Krimmel believes the performance of OIH is not a flash in the pan, but rather an inflection point.
“The accumulating strength in oilfield services is much less appreciated, and arguably is a more important signal of how global energy systems are expected to evolve over the next five to 10 years,” he said. |
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02-09-26 spal
Joe Pompliano
@JoePompliano
·
4h
More than 500 private jets departed the Bay Area immediately after the Super Bowl ended 😳
https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2020842287224467820?s=20
K-shaped economy anyone? |
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02-09-26 spal
Vizsla Silver Issues Update On Abducted Employees In Mexico – VZLA Stock Down 14%
Vizsla Silver Corp. announced that families have informed the company that several employees abducted from its Concordia, Mexico project site have been found deceased. |
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02-09-26 spal
Most days 25-year-old Logan Sudeith can be found lounging in his bed in his Atlanta apartment, staring at Polymarket and Kalshi. The former financial analyst started placing bets on the two big prediction market sites for things like who will be Time Magazine's person of the year? And will President Trump say drill, baby, drill at a press conference? Sudeith's wins were piling up just as his entry-level job at a small finance firm was paying him...
LOGAN SUDEITH: Like 75,000.
ALLYN: And you're making more than that annually on Kalshi?
LOGAN SUDEITH: Yeah. Like, last month, I made, like, 100,000.
====
He's talking about crypto wallets, which is how most people trade on Polymarket, and don't fade those people means just don't bet against them. These prediction market traders have developed their own lingo for talking to each other on the online forums like Reddit and Discord.
SEMET: There's always going to be somebody that has more information than you, unless you're the insider.
ALLYN: Kalshi and Polymarket both say they prohibit and monitor for market manipulation, but beefed up federal rules aren't expected anytime soon. The president's son, Donald Trump Jr., advises both companies, and the president's Truth Social platform wants to start its own prediction market. The five-member CFTC doesn't appear ready to regulate since, right now, it only has one commissioner. Bobby Allyn, NPR News.
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/21/nx-s1-5672615-e1/they-quit-their-day-jobs-to-bet-on-current-events-a-look-inside-the-prediction-market |
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02-09-26 spal
| If people are not working they have to be either drugged up or fighting wars ... they are too much trouble otherwise. |
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02-09-26 spal
1) AI biz as usual.
2) AI will disrupt evey corner.
More 1) than 2).
And people will still work. UBI already in the system via government involvement in all major economies and "entitlement and immigration" industrial complexes ...
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02-09-26 spal
| KBE index to track bear steepening ... index of regional US banks |
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02-09-26 savo
still trying to figure out the impact of AI.
99% unemployment.... everybody receiving Trump checks. |
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02-09-26 panasonic
| Amateur, US international policy is a big question mark, coin toss :-( |
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02-09-26 panasonic
PT, more than threats are the potential challenges from ongoing transformation.
Have a wonderful piece from Stanford University that covers both scenarios.
1) AI biz as usual.
2) AI will disrupt evey corner.
Once we decide which one will be, it becomes easier to navigate.
As for markets, it's optional to stay exposed, me? still trying to figure out the impact of AI. |
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02-09-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
5.70 (+5.46%)
Someone likes it today. I approve ...
Alvopetro operates as an independent energy company focused on onshore natural gas and oil in the Recôncavo Basin in the state of Bahia, Brazil, specifically targeting areas north of Salvador. Their main assets, including the Caburé and Murucututu fields, are located in this region. They are an upstream and midstream operator, which includes a gas processing facility and pipeline, with a significant part of their production delivered to Bahiagás. |
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02-09-26 spal
| Reserves have been chronically in excess for years. |
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02-09-26 spal
| Double post? Browser needs a kick. |
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02-09-26 spal
OIH ... tracking position in the oil services index ... added.
Also some schtocks with offshore theme moving up ... eg BORR ... I'm also hold large position in SFL as they have a bid out to tender the Hercules ... this will make a big difference to them if they succeed. The climate right now is all about "resource nationalism" so I think someone leases it. |
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02-09-26 spal
OIH ... tracking position in the oil services index ... added.
Also some schtocks with offshore theme moving up ... eg BORR ... I'm also hold large position in SFL as they have a bid out to tender the Hercules ... this will make a big difference to them if they succeed. The climate right now is all about "resource nationalism" so I think someone leases it. |
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02-09-26 amateur
Fed increasing holdings of US debt is printing money to finance fiscal deficit, irrespective of the increase being in Tbills or 30y bonds.
If the increase happens in long term bonds, the additional effect is curve repressing.
If bank reserves are still ample, in excess of technical levels, Warsh could push banks to buy treasuries, by reducing interest paid on reserves. Fed is paying banks 3.65% on reserves, seems too high. One time shot, though. When reserves fall to technical level they cant fall anymore
My unprofessional guess is reserves are excessisve, supporting all bull markets. |
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02-09-26 savo
FWIW.. i think both Russia and China are happy to see Maduro go...and the situation in veni normalizing.
It has nothing to do with Ukraine and Taiwan....
Everybody wins with an unsanctioned veni...including China and Russia...which do not have to side with Maduro anymore as a matter of principle.
Even if the US has total control of the situation for now... eventually that grip will be loosed and there will be more business for everybody.
The icing on the cake is that the psycho and her acolytes will have to wait.
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02-09-26 spal
PT - yes ... technically I think it is a bear-steepening ... but it has already partially happened and will intensify.
I am looking at some positions in NLY, ABR and possibly BXMT to trade this (for a short while). They are all high yield and they benefit from this kind of term structure. |
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02-09-26 spal
The price for Russia and China not supporting a chavist rebellion may be the US tollerating their advance in Ukraine and Taiwan.
===
Yes - maybe. |
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02-09-26 savo
pt.. it wont last long.
sooner or later the fed will have to intervene the whole curve. |
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02-09-26 patient-trader
Pana, which threats for society are you most worried about?
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02-09-26 patient-trader
If true, a fundamental change: Warsh wants the Fed to buy TBills and leave Tbonds to market forces. Interesting enough, the Chinese just instructed their banks to scale back Tbonds purchase.
That seems to confirm Spals idea that we will see a much steeper yield curve.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-08/warsh-call-for-fed-treasury-accord-stirs-debate-bond-market?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3MDY0MzMxOCwiZXhwIjoxNzcxMjQ4MTE4LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUOVYxNzVLSkg2VjUwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJBNjRFRDU3MEMxRUY0QTE3OTg2Qzc2QUE0NUM3MDM1QyJ9.L1AjC2XUxPl3TMWg3Adi39JTjw48B7Wq1SYAZuIHJj8
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02-09-26 pillz
ConocoPhillips puts debt recovery ahead of new drilling in Venezuela
Mon Feb 09 06:00:41 2026 EDT
ConocoPhillips is prioritising efforts to recover billions of dollars owed by Venezuela rather than rushing back into drilling or new oil developments, according to Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance, Bloomberg reported.
Speaking on a call with analysts, Lance said the US producer remains focused on enforcing arbitration awards linked to the expropriation of its assets nearly two decades ago.
The Houston-based company has secured favourable rulings from international tribunals worth close to $10bn, Lance said, but collecting on those judgments has proven difficult.
Those enforcement hurdles continue to weigh on any consideration of fresh investment in Venezuela’s oil fields, limiting the scope for an immediate operational return.
“The main focus remains on trying to obtain the recovery we are owed from the two judgments we have in effect,” Lance told investors.
The remarks come as US President Donald Trump has urged American energy companies to take a leading role in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry following the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces on January 3.
ConocoPhillips attended a recent White House meeting with senior oil executives, where it outlined losses of about $12bn stemming from the nationalisation of its Venezuelan projects.
While signalling a willingness to engage with the current US administration and share its experience in the country, Lance cautioned that substantial work remains before conditions are suitable for a broader return. “There is much to be done,” he said.
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COP COP-BQ COP-CO COP-SWX COPH34-BSP YCP-FRA YCP.FRA-FVIS
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02-09-26 savo
leo.. the Trump administration has U-turn on veni.
The next step regarding the bonds is a license to authorize negotiations.
Let's wait for that first. |
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02-09-26 amateur
“I'm more worried abt. future of society in general.”
Indeed, Pana. And, including the future of international politics.
The price for Russia and China not supporting a chavist rebellion may be the US tollerating their advance in Ukraine and Taiwan.
London US consulate denying visas to applicants with driving and drinking offenses.
Resented ignorant voters give power to bullies and charlatans
China advancing to top world power, and their condottieri (russia, NK, Iran) doing the dirty jobs.
Ugly
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02-09-26 leopardo
| If the Us administration will punish Veny bondholders or not remains to be seen.......... |
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Board
