03-05-26 victor
savo, trouble in paradise?
Trump ousts Noem as frustrations build among White House officials, GOP lawmakers |
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03-05-26 spal
| Pilly - it’s a classic "Schrödinger’s Chokepoint": Iran is telling the world (especially China) that the Strait is legally open, while simultaneously making it physically impossible to transit. |
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03-05-26 pillz
| Iran Says Currently ‘No Intention’ to Close Hormuz Strait: AFP |
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03-05-26 spal
BAPCO is burning.
Bahrain Petroleum Company refinery. The facility that processes virtually all of Bahrain’s domestic oil output — struck despite mystical claims of Bahraini air defenses pulling down 75 missiles and 123 drones in the same wave. Highest single-day intercept count for any Gulf state in this war (if you believe them). Six officially got through.
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03-05-26 savo
nobody believes DT... Meloni is an ally but is not stupid...
decades of lies... lies on vietnam.. lies on irak.. lies on Lybia... Lies on Afghanistan.. .. lies on employment.. lies on inflation.. lies on gdp...lies on exports.. on tariffs.. on imports.. one lie after the other.. one exaggeration after the other... lies on narco veni...a big beautiful bill which turned out to be a big ugliest bill...the hottest economy in the world which turns out to be the coldest... lies on iran 4 weeks ago when supposedly iran had been obliterated...
why should Europe believe anything now? I am happy to see Sanchez taking the leadership... |
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03-05-26 victor
meloni is supposedly a dt ally :-))
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Meloni enviará ayuda militar a los países del Golfo, pero descarta entrar en la guerra
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03-05-26 victor
:-)))
Trump vuelve a la carga contra España: “Es una perdora” y “muy hostil a la OTAN”
El presidente de Estados Unidos también critica al primer ministro británico, Keir Starmer
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03-05-26 victor
savo, yes :-))
but today btc is dropping again. 71k. |
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03-05-26 pillz
Dollar, bonds, or gold - which is the safest haven to hold?
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-bonds-or-gold--which-is-the-safest-haven-to-hold-4544325 |
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03-05-26 victor
| A federal judge ruled that the US government must begin paying out more than $130 billion in tariff refunds to US businesses in another setback for the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down the president's wide-reaching "reciprocal" tariffs. |
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03-05-26 spal
| Stops triggered across the board - raising cash. |
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03-05-26 victor
:-))
España envía una fragata a Chipre para dar protección a la isla frente a Irán
La ministra de Defensa insiste en que España no colaborará con EE.UU. en atacar Irán y da a entender que la Casa Blanca desinforma |
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03-05-26 victor
sanchez proving yet again he is the smartest spanish leader since franco :-))
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Rutte elogia el despliegue de España en territorio aliado en plena disputa con Trump
El secretario general de la OTAN subraya que un sistema Patriot español en Turquía “defiende los intereses clave de EE.UU.”
El secretario general de la OTAN, Mark Rutte, ha elogiado hoy el papel de España en la Alianza Atlántica y el despliegue de sus fuerzas en territorio aliado, incluyendo en Turquía donde un sistema Patriot español “defiende intereses estadounidenses clave”. Unas palabras importantes por llegar en plena disputa entre Washington y Madrid por su negativa a usar las bases de Rota y Morón en su guerra contra Irán.
“También quiero elogiar a España, porque España está desplegada en todo el territorio de la OTAN. Sus tropas forman parte de muchas fuerzas terrestres de vanguardia, muchas iniciativas y muchas misiones de la OTAN”, ha dicho Rutte, preguntado por el asunto en una entrevista con la agencia Reuters.
“Quiero felicitarles sinceramente por ello —ha continuado—. En estos momentos, hay un sistema Patriot en Turquía que defiende los intereses clave de EE.UU. en ese país, y lleva allí ya diez años protegiendo esos intereses clave”.
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03-05-26 panasonic
My take is different from media, Iran doesn't want nukes to fire them to Israel, the real intention is have supremacy of oil supply in the middle east.
Imagine Iran has the power to annihilate all oil producers and use that leverage to sends drones to destroy oil facilities in KSA, Kuwait and UAE?
Should world take the risk of that scenario? Don't think so.
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03-05-26 panasonic
Savo, yes I do believe the enrichment reached @60%, I believe they have ballistic misiles, and used it...so yes 1+1 = 2.
Next one? If continues building weapons, will be taken out. |
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03-05-26 savo
pana.. do you believe the story about nuclear iran?
They lied to us before... many times...to justify wars and invasions...Remember Narco veni...? suddenly not narco anymore?
The ayatollahs are a murderous regime...and for that only they should be removed...no need for "nuclear iran"... the question is how do we know the next ones will be any better. They could be worse. |
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03-05-26 panasonic
"Vic: based on what ???"
Statistics Vic, right now chance of a long and healthy life of a radical dropped down dramatically :-))
How long will conflict last? Well depends on disponibility of virgins in after life, they are already running short from latest reports.
I would assume that, at certain point, a cleric willing to abandon nuclear ambitions will emerge.
One thing I'm pretty sure, a nuclear armed Iran won't happen. |
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03-05-26 savo
| victor.. you know i do not sleep well when Saylor is out of the hoook! |
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03-05-26 victor
| savo, today btc went to 73k |
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03-05-26 savo
US turns up heat on Delcy Rodriguez.
i think this is an operation led by the psycho and her allies in the US congress who were counting on MCM taking Miraflores.
For the moment there is Delcy until 2030 and if she does things right at least one more term...
in 10 years MCM will be 70.. still can run...but one could imagine new younger figures will emerge.
I think it would be very good for veni if "steady" Delcy continues.
The last thing veni needs is a demented psychotic woman whose every word is a lie or an exaggeration. |
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03-05-26 spal
but because it is a democracy
===
?
It is NOT a democracy. It is not a democracy by design. It has never been a democracy.
There are certain democratic like principles involved. No more, no less. |
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03-05-26 spal
the word the always fills their mouth is Democracy..
That is because they are speaking to simpletons. |
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03-05-26 savo
Victor... what that article shows is that this war.. like most previous wars ... is built on a lie.
Trump's agenda is failing... the economy stagnated.. inflation is going up... jobs are going down.. despite tariffs imports are up and exports are down... the deficit is out of control as they have to repaid the tariffs and the fed is clueless as to what to do.
the dollar may be up these days.. but USTs are down and the stock market is practically flat... so money is not going "into" the US.
This war was launched simply as a distraction...
and however they want to spin it ..
it is inflationary... taxes have not been raised to pay for it... so it will be a combination of money printing (inflation today) and borrowing (inflation tomorrow)
which means it is good for gold and silver (and for the politically connected)... irrespective of which maneuver they use to repress gold and silver prices |
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03-05-26 savo
that may be the case...but US politicians take usually the higher ground not saying that the US is a representative republic... but because it is a democracy...the word the always fills their mouth is Democracy... similarly in the UK...which is not a republic...
To be fair.. nobody has a clue what republic means these days anyway... |
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03-05-26 spal
| Because it is a "Representative Republic" and NOT a "Representative Democracy" ... never has been. |
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03-04-26 victor
savo, For example, in a 2014 study by Martin Gilens and Benajmin Page, the authors note that when it comes to “impacts on U.S. government policy ... average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.” Gilens and page note that “the preferences of economic elites ... have far more independent impact upon policy change than the preferences of average citizens do.”
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it's why people voted for dt, thinking that he would be different than the rest of politicos.
maga is/was supposed to be isolationist. |
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03-04-26 savo
carib.. you'll like this one...
The Iran War Exposes the Farce of American “Representative Democracy”
03/03/2026 Ryan McMaken
The Trump administration has unilaterally—without any Congressional debate or vote, of course—forced Americans into yet another war. This time, the war is a large-scale military campaign against Iran. Was there any groundswell of public support for this war? Did the Congress vote to spend more American tax dollars on another war? Apparently not. According to a March 1 poll from Reuters, only 27 percent of Americans polled said they support the US’s new war on Iran. Needless to say, few Americans have been calling their representatives in Congress asking for yet another Middle Eastern war.
So, why is the US now at war with Iran? Not even the administration appears to know for sure. After the war had already begun, the White House repeatedly changed its stated rationale for opening hostilities against Iran. At the beginning the US regime had been claiming it wanted regime change in Iran to “liberate” Iranians. Yet, by Monday, when Trump listed his reasons for starting the war, he didn’t mention regime change at all. Rather, the administration now seems to have settled on claims that the Iran regime was creating a missile program that, somehow, endangers the United States. Yet, virtually no one believes that the Iranian regime has ever had long-range missiles capable of getting anywhere near US territory. Rather, the only “threat” to the United States is a threat to US bases which the US government has insisted on building 10,000 miles from US territory, and which have nothing to do with the safety of Americans in the United States.
On Monday, Rubio said that the United States began the war because the State of Israel planned to attack Iran, and that this would lead to Iranian reprisals against US bases. Rubio was essentially stating that Tel Aviv forced the US into the war. Trump today directly contradicted his Secretary of State—as well as the GOP Speaker of the House and GOP Senator Tom Cotton—and claimed “I might’ve forced their hand.”
Completely absent from all these confused and retroactive attempts to justify the war is any mention of the American people, their tax dollars, their freedoms, or even their alleged representatives in Congress. Nor is this surprising. The current war is a timely reminder that the US ruling elites regard the US taxpayers and ordinary Americans as little more than inconvenient afterthoughts in the formation of US foreign policy. At the same time, the US regime also claims to have the moral high ground precisely because the American regime is supposedly “democratic” with the support of “the people.”
Indeed, the Trump administration overall has helped make it abundantly clear that US elections and public opinion are almost completely irrelevant to the foreign policy. Throughout his campaigns, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be the peace candidate, announcing in his speeches that he would end wars, rather than start them. In the days before the 2024 election, the GOP posted this image in social media, clearly presenting the Trump administration as “the pro-peace ticket”:
Yet, less than a year into his second term, Donald Trump’s foreign policy looks largely indistinguishable from that of the foreign policy of Barack Obama or Joe Biden. Indeed, if the current war drags on, we’ll be able to say Trump’s foreign policy is reminiscent of the George W. Bush administration.
It was clear during the campaign that the Trump ticket was trying to take advantage of public sentiment which favored less US involvement in foreign wars. With American foreign policy, however, elections don’t matter. This was recently emphasized by the bumbling US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson. Carlson began with a simple question for Huckabee:
Carlson: How much does it matter what Americans think?
Huckabee: Well, it matters every bit what Americans think.
Carlson then points out that about 21% of Americans support war with Iran. He asks Huckabee if that’s enough for the US regime to start a war with Iran. Huckabee states “We don’t live in a world where you have a poll taken to find out whether our policy should be in a particular direction...”
Carlson then points out that Huckabee had just said public opinion matters a lot and Huckabee says “we care deeply about it...”
Carlson: “If we’re ignoring it, in what sense to we ‘care deeply about it?’”
Huckabee then offers a non sequitur: “I think we care deeply when we see there’s a threat.” Huckabee then continued with more word salad in a desperate attempt to make a connection between public opinion and his preferred policy of repeatedly starting elective wars with Middle Eastern regimes that are no threat to the US population.
The reality, of course, is closer to Rubio’s explanation for the US’s involvement in the war: following the lead of the State of Israel.
This is apparently fine with Ambassador Huckabee, of course, who in his Carlson interview, was asked if Huckabee thinks the State of Israel has a “right” to take over most of the Middle East. Carslon stated: ”Does Israel have the right to that land?” Huckabee responded ”It would be fine if they took it all.”
And what if most Americans don’t share this opinion? Clearly, the US regime doesn’t care, and neither does Huckabee, or Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump says he doesn’t care about polling so he won’t rule out deploying American troops on the ground in Iran.
In spite of all the US regime’s posturing about “the will of the people” and “representation” in Congress, what really matters in Washington is serving powerful interest groups. The taxpaying public simply exists as a resource to be bled dry in favor of wars, protectionism, and federal spending which serves the ruling elite’s complex system of patrons and clients that keeps the elite in power.
When it comes to US foreign policy in the middle east, the dominant interest group is the State of Israel. This is executed through the American-Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC) and other elements of what foreign-policy scholars John Mearsheimer and Stephen walt call “the Israel lobby.” When Mearsheimer and Walt released their book The Israel Lobby in 2007, they were predictably accused of anti-semitism. Yet, the book was ahead of its time in describing how pro-Israel interest groups have been extremely successful in gaining financial, military, and strategic favors for Israel from US policymakers. It has all been done at the expense of American taxpayers. The result has been an American foreign policy elite that overwhelmingly favors incessant foreign intervention to favor a foreign state—the State of Israel—regardless of any concern for the cost borne by Americans or the potential for drawing the US into broader conflicts that do not in any way increase the security of the United States.
In 2007, The Israel Lobby seemed controversial to many. In 2026, it is merely a statement of the obvious—that US foreign policy is tailored to favor certain interest group, rather than the interests of ordinary voters. This, however, is how all interest group politics works. The voting public doesn’t matter, and it hasn’t mattered for a long time.
This is shown in empirical studies that have tried to find a connection between public opinion and actual policies favored in Washington. The connection is tenuous at best.
For example, in a 2014 study by Martin Gilens and Benajmin Page, the authors note that when it comes to “impacts on U.S. government policy ... average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.” Gilens and page note that “the preferences of economic elites ... have far more independent impact upon policy change than the preferences of average citizens do.”
This can be seen in Trump’s own fundraising given how one of his biggest donors, billionaire Miriam Adelson, is notable for an extreme pro-Israel position. This is, not surprisingly, reflected in Trump’s foreign policy.
The final conclusions of Gilens and Page are clear:
In the United States, our findings indicate, the majority does not rule—at least not in the causal sense of actually determining policy outcomes. When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites or with organized interests, they generally lose. Moreover, because of the strong status quo bias built into the U.S. political system, even when fairly large majorities of Americans favor policy change, they generally do not get it.
Perhaps no group of “economic elites” is more influential in foreign policy than those who control campaign funds distributed through pro-Israel interest groups like AIPAC, or through the spending of wealthy individuals like Adelson.
Other studies have come to similar conclusions. For example, in a 2017 paper on voter preferences, John Matsusake concluded that legislator preferences don’t correlate with voter preferences:
[W]hen legislator preferences differed from district opinion on an issue, legislators voted congruent with district opinion only 29 percent of the time. The data do not show a reliable connection between congruence and competitive election, term limits, campaign contributions, or media attention. The evidence is most consistent with the assumption of a citizen-candidate model that legislators vote their own preferences.
There is, of course, no such thing as a “district opinion,” but the general idea is clear enough: if a legislator’s campaign war chest depends on pleasing a specific interest group, then the preferences of the voters don’t really matter.
Similarly, in a 2016 study from Michael Barber, he writes on how votes in the US Senate bear little relation to public opinion: “[S]enators’ preferences diverge dramatically from the preference of the average voter in their state. The degree of divergence is nearly as large as if voters were randomly assigned to a senator.”
So, if policymakers are largely independent of the voters who the policymakers ostensibly “represent,” then what determines federal policy?
The current war is just the latest reminder that pluralism is wrong and elite theory is right. There is no “we the people.” There is no “representative democracy.” And, when it comes to the big stuff like war, federal spending, and the central bank, elections don’t matter. It’s why, no matter who gets elected, US foreign policy proceeds more or less as usual, year after year after year.
This is why it doesn’t matter that only about one in four Americans is interested in being on the hook for yet another Middle Eastern war with no apparent benefits for any average American. This is why the administration continues to engage in shifting claims about the origins of this conflict. The administration knows that claims about Iran being a threat to the American people are not tenable, and are on the same level as claims about Iraqi WMDs. Nor can the regime just come right out at say “our pro-Israel funders told us to fight Iran.” So, we have Rubio telling us the war was a “preemptive strike” against the potential blowback from US-funded Israeli strikes on Iran. This explanation is already falling apart, which is why Trump now denies it.
In the end, the regime doesn’t even really need to come up with a plausible explanation. The political fallout will settle largely on the current administration, and this will have little effect on the real governing elite which remains in control regardless which party is ostensibly “in power.”
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03-04-26 victor
| Delcy Rodríguez, who is the President of Venezuela, is doing a great job, and working with U.S. Representatives very well. The Oil is beginning to flow, and the professionalism and dedication between both Countries is a very nice thing to see! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-04-26 pillz
| A survey carried out in Israel by the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv University-linked think tank, showed 81% of more than 950 respondents supported the strikes on Iran and 63% said it should continue until its government was overthrown. That contrasts sharply with US polls indicating an overwhelming majority of Americans oppose the war. |
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03-04-26 pillz
The Spanish government is denying the White House’s claim that Madrid has reversed course on its refusal to allow US forces to use its military bases to strike Iran. Nothing has changed with regard to Spain’s posture toward the war, an official said.
Earlier, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that it was her “understanding over the past several hours, they’ve agreed to cooperate with the US military,” when asked about Trump’s threat to embargo Spanish goods.
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Spain must be out of NATO .... |
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03-04-26 pillz
| Spain denies White House claim it agreed to cooperate with US against Iran |
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03-04-26 victor
carib, if ione were popular, there would be trouble.
listen to what she would like to do:
https://x.com/ionebelarra/status/2029141441885217256
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03-04-26 victor
carib, podemos now wants spain to take dt at his word and raise the stakes, by cutting relations with the usa, leave nato, and put an end to the usa using these bases. etc.
fortunately, podemos is going nowhere in the polls, and has been killed in recent regional elections. |
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03-04-26 victor
carib, you never know.
i never imagined that in march, 2026 we would have this all-out war vs iran.
2 days ago some guys were saying that spain should be expelled from nato. etc. |
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03-04-26 carib
| Victor: not in my lifetime, IMHO. |
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03-04-26 victor
"Pero que las bases militares son de soberanía española, y es el Gobierno es el que decide quién las usa, y no Trump"
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and this highlights one of the main problems of pushing spain too much.
right now the usa is using these bases.
in the future it could be russia or china using them.
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03-04-26 victor
20:07 Albares: "El convenio es muy claro y estamos hablando de bases españolas"
El Ministro dice que España es un pueblo amigo de Estados Unidos, y recuerda que somos de los pocos países que los ayudó en su independencia. Pero que las bases militares son de soberanía española, y es el Gobierno es el que decide quién las usa, y no Trump. "El compromiso de España está fuera de toda duda, Pero España en un país soberano en política exterior. España no puede temer a Trump en políticas económicas". |
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03-04-26 victor
pill
20:12 Albares muy molesto con la Casa Blanca
El ministro de Exteriores, José Manuel Albares, ha desmentido “tajantemente” las palabras de la portavoz de la Casa Blanca, Karoline Leavitt, quien acaba de afirmar en una rueda de prensa en Washington que España va a “cooperar militarmente” con EE UU. “ La posición del Gobierno de España sobre la guerra en Oriente Medio, los bombardeos en Irán y el uso de nuestras bases no ha cambiado ni una coma”, ha afirmado Albares en una entrevista con la Cadena SER. |
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03-04-26 victor
pill, it's not true.
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La Casa Blanca asegura que España acepta colaborar en la ofensiva contra Irán y Moncloa lo niega
La portavoz presidencial Karoline Leavitt afirma, sobre el Gobierno de Sánchez, que «en las últimas horas han aceptado cooperar». Moncloa dice que es «falso»
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03-04-26 pillz
| When asked about Trump’s threat to impose a trade embargo on Spanish goods, Leavitt said that “it’s my understanding over the past several hours, they’ve agreed to cooperate with the US military and so I know that the US military is coordinating with their counterparts in Spain.” |
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03-04-26 spal
| Carib it may be true ... but the spread of the Islamist mind virus remains an issue. |
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03-04-26 carib
| Actually, I think a vast majority of iranian subjects.. regard their own government as "the enemy". |
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03-04-26 spal
Yes - a kind of a real "mask off" moment if you regard the counter offensive of the Iranians as a real world guide to who they really regards as the enemy.
The "safe haven" aspect of so much of western sponsored life around Gulf just went out the window. |
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03-04-26 carib
US Central Command (CENTCOM) is making "steady progress" in Operation Epic Fury's strikes against the Iranian regime, including heavily reducing its ability to launch ballistic missiles and drones, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine said in a press statement at the Pentagon on Wednesday.
"Iran's theater ballistic missile shots fired are down 86% from the first day of fighting, with a 23% decrease in the last 24 hours," Caine said, adding that Iran's "one-way attack drone shots are down 73% from the opening days."
Trying to save munitions.. or getting short of operational launchers? Small anti ship drones not easy to eliminate entirely.
sinking anything that floats probably easier. |
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03-04-26 carib
SPAL: I agree.
to re-open Hormuz either a long term cease fire, or the utter destruction of the terrorist theocracy are required. I would prefer the latter, but have no influence on this. |
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03-04-26 spal
Published 3 March 2026, 09:01
Few vessels want to take the risk of passing through the Strait of Hormuz right now, especially on an inward journey.
However, one tanker owned by a prominent Greek shipowner has broken the mould.
While hundreds of tankers sit trapped in the Gulf, wondering about how to get out through the bottleneck, a ship owned by George Procopiou has snuck in from the other direction.
The Dynacom Tankers Management-controlled 150,000-dwt Pola (built 2011) was seen on AIS approaching the chokepoint late on Monday.
It reappeared in the waters of Sharjah early on Tuesday.
Crude tanker rates surged on Tuesday, with some suezmax assessments doubling.
Read more
Tanker rates climb to blockbuster levels amid a litany of failed fixtures.
George Procopiou-backed Dynacom did not return calls and emails requesting comment on the voyage.
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Clearly a colore |
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03-04-26 spal
| Trump’s announcement doesn’t go far enough to fully re-open the strait, particularly as the naval escort is a futurible. But it will encourage a few Greek tanker owners to risk crossing it: night time, AIS off, and a pray. That’s how fortunes were made: ask John Fredriksen. |
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03-04-26 spal
DHT Antelope (2025 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: A 🟢) Petrobras DHT Management $DHT (TCE: RV USD 257K @ 84 days / Actual USD 260K @ 83 days)
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3X the normal rate. |
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03-04-26 spal
But what happens to freights if by the end of march Iran capitulates, or settles, and things in the Gulf go back to normal?
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The stocks I am holding, trading were at current levels before this broke out so I think the bid in the market for their services remains solid.
They have not further strengthened because of the stasis in the Straight which froze fleet movements and despite the huge level of rates quoted hardly anyone loaded a new cargo (past few days). This looks like changing - given the insurance deadline and the forcing them to raise anchor and go the longer route (etc ).
If things revert there will still be less ships and a lot of catch-up to do.
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03-04-26 carib
US forces have struck or sunk over 20 Iranian warships since Operation Epic Fury began on Saturday, CENTCOM announced on Wednesday.
This includes CENTCOM sinking a Soleimani-class warship on Tuesday night.
small skiffs still floating. |
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03-04-26 carib
Spal: I see your reasoning.. and prices.
But what happens to freights if by the end of march Iran capitulates, or settles, and things in the Gulf go back to normal? |
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03-04-26 spal
Gemini said
Starting March 5, 2026, the global tanker market hits an "Insurance Cliff." Major P&I clubs (Gard, Skuld) and Lloyd’s of London have issued a 7-day Notice of Cancellation for war-risk cover in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea following the "Operation True Promise 4" escalations.
At 00:01 UTC, existing coverage for 90% of global tonnage lapses. Entering the Gulf now requires a "Breach Premium"—rumored at 5–10% of hull value ($6M–$12M per voyage)—making the 14-day Cape of Good Hope detour the only viable, insured option.
For FRO, DHT, and NAT, this is a structural catalyst. The detour "deletes" 20% of vessel supply, converting temporary rate spikes into a multi-month Super Cycle. With the "Dark Fleet" facing U.S. interdiction, the legitimate, insured fleet now holds total pricing power. The "Hormuz Stasis" is no longer a choice; it is a financial mandate. |
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03-04-26 carib
| US turns up heat on Delcy Rodriguez. According to Reuters, the Trump administration is quietly building a legal case against Venezuelan interim president Delcy Rodriguez including readying a draft criminal indictment, one of several tools it is using to strengthen its leverage with Caracas. Federal prosecutors have put together possible corruption and money laundering charges, and have communicated to Rodriguez that she is at risk of prosecution unless she continues to comply with Trump’s demands following the U.S. ouster of former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January. This pressure on Delcy Rodriguez supports our view that she is just a temporary arrangement and the ultimatum objective in the US plan for Venezuela is to have a new election. We expect this election to take place sooner rather than later (central scenario Q1-27) and see little progress in terms of debt restructuring before that. |
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03-04-26 carib
| China currently uses trade as a tool. |
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03-04-26 carib
The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN.
The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, the sources said.
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03-04-26 spal
| US may have to eliminate much of the dark fleet serving Iran and to take Kharg Island off line. |
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03-04-26 savo
No one believes this.
may be not inside the Satanist States... outside... most people do. |
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03-04-26 spal
Vic - no argument.
Politics is now just for politics sake. Spain is far less important to him than his own political survival. |
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03-04-26 victor
spal, regardless, sanchez gets what he wants:
a great distraction and cover for all the corruption scandals around him.
and higher odds that he gets himself reelected. |
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03-04-26 spal
| The Chinese are bull shitters. |
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03-04-26 spal
| Even Adam Smith saw trade policy as something governments could and sometimes should wield strategically. |
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03-04-26 spal
"Trade should not be used as a weapon or as a tool,"
==
No one believes this. |
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03-04-26 spal
Proof of the Institutional Liquidity Gap
Institutional "professionals" are governed by two things that individual investors aren't: VaR (Value at Risk) limits and Redemption mandates.
The Divergence Signal: On Tuesday, March 3, 2026, gold hit an intraday record of $5,419, yet the gold miners (GDX) were slammed, down over 8.7%. This is a mathematical impossibility in a normal market. It proves that institutions weren't selling because they "disliked" the companies; they were selling because mining stocks were their only liquid assets with a profit.
The Shipping Parallel: Frontline (FRO) and DHT showed the same pattern. Despite VLCC rates hitting $200,000/day, the stocks were being "puked" into the close. This isn't "professional" analysis; it's a margin call. |
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03-04-26 victor
spal, now china..
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China comes to Spain's defense after Trump's threat
It is a strategic entry point for Chinese investments in infrastructure, energy, and logistics
China came out on Wednesday in defense of Spain and categorically rejected the idea that international trade could become a weapon used for political pressure. "Trade should not be used as a weapon or as a tool," stated the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, in response to a question from Efe regarding the threats from Washington to "cut all trade" with Spain and even impose an embargo.
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03-04-26 pillz
Morgan Stanley explains why gold is falling despite Iran escalation
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/morgan-stanley-explains-why-gold-is-falling-despite-iran-escalation-4540532 |
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03-04-26 victor
pana, If a new leader in the line of Rouhani is appointed
based on what ???
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Mojtaba Jamenei, el hijo del ayatolá que puede convertirse en el nuevo líder supremo de Irán
Bien conectado con la Guardia Revolucionaria, el clérigo encarna el ala más dura del régimen
Su nombre supuestamente sonó con fuerza el martes en la Asamblea de Expertos, el órgano formado por 88 clérigos que se encarga de elegir al líder supremo iraní. Según la información del Times, los clérigos querían anunciar el nombramiento este miércoles, pero el miedo a exponer al candidato al fuego enemigo podría alterar los planes. De hecho, al joven Jamenei no se le ha visto desde el sábado, si bien se sabe que logró sobrevivir a los ataques que acabaron con la vida de su padre –y también de su esposa, Zahra Haddad Adel–.
Si al final se confirma, la elección de Mojtaba Jamenei supondrá una apuesta decidida por el continuismo. El hijo del difunto ayatolá forma parte del ala dura del régimen. En los últimos años ha trabajado estrechamente con la Guardia Revolucionaria, la fuerza paramilitar que vela por los intereses de la Revolución Islámica. Precisamente esta institución sería la principal impulsora de su nombramiento, bajo el argumento de que, en el actual contexto bélico, lo mejor es contar con un líder familiarizado con los cuerpos armados.
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03-04-26 spal
keir starmer
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He is what happens when a man lives his life thinking as a woman. |
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03-04-26 spal
FRO The "Tonne Mile" is known for a reason as the "God Metric" ... remember this.
If you have 100 barrels of oil and the trip length doubles, you effectively need twice as many ships to move the same amount of oil in the same timeframe.
Artificial Scarcity: Because FRO’s ships are "trapped" at sea for 15 extra days, they are not available to pick up the next cargo. This removes massive amounts of "vessel supply" from the global market.
The "Dirty" to "Clean" Pivot: With Middle Eastern refineries under threat from Operation True Promise 4, FRO’s LR2 fleet (Large Range tankers) will stop moving refined fuel out of the Gulf and start moving it in from Europe and the US to keep regional militaries and desalination plants running. |
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03-04-26 victor
spal
keir starmer- another one doing a sanchez:
En su comparecencia semanal ante la Cámara de los Comunes, Starmer dijo que su posición no ha cambiado respecto al sábado, cuando denegó la petición de EE.UU. de usar bases militares británicas para atacar a la nación persa, a la que acusa de intensificar su programa nuclear. |
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03-04-26 spal
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03-04-26 spal
| Vic - I don't think their congratulations are that meaningful, maybe to him. |
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03-04-26 victor
spal, why would dt turn this guy into the good guy of the story?
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Pedro Sánchez
Muy agradecido por las llamadas y mensajes de apoyo de @vonderleyen, @eucopresident, @EmmanuelMacron y otros aliados europeos.
NO A LA GUERRA. Sí al comercio, la cooperación y la prosperidad.
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03-04-26 victor
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03-04-26 spal
Oil wti price forecast anyone?
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An impossible prediction right now Leo. |
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03-04-26 patient-trader
Update: Sri Lanka responds to distress call from Iranian ship IRIS Dena
https://www.dailymirror.lk/breaking-news/Update-Sri-Lanka-responds-to-distress-call-from-Iranian-ship-IRIS-Dena/108-334380
The US strikes Iranian vessels as far as Sri Lanka. |
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03-04-26 panasonic
Leo, 100%
If a new leader in the line of Rouhani is appointed, we could save lives and time, in'shallah. |
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03-04-26 leopardo
| of course it will dipend from the lenght of Iranian conflit... |
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03-04-26 panasonic
| Leo, JPM latest review $120 |
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03-04-26 leopardo
Oil wti price forecast anyone?
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03-04-26 patient-trader
Trump offending European NATO partners with threatening to take Greenland and then complaining that Europeans are not supportive enough to the US during the Iran war is just stupid. Same, as not filling up oil reserves before attacking Iran.
Also, the idea that the US can escort vessels through the strait is silly. All it takes is some smallish drone to disable an oil tanker. |
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03-04-26 leopardo
| Spal where do you think oil wti will go? |
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03-04-26 victor
why didnt the usa evacuate these people before the attacks?
was it because the usa wasn't expecting iran to retaliate?
according to dt on day 1, the iranians wanted to make a deal.
bs ???
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EE.UU. lucha por evacuar a estadounidenses mientras atacan sus bases en Medio Oriente |
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03-04-26 spal
The AN/FPS-132 is a strategic-level asset. It provides the 360-degree, 5,000km detection that allows Patriot and THAAD batteries to "see" incoming threats from deep within Iranian territory.
+1
The Damage: Imagery shows a massive breach in the geodesic white dome. The Pentagon has confirmed that a drone/missile struck the Modernized Enterprise Terminal (MET) housed within.
The Strategic Hit: While the U.S. has space-based infrared redundancy, losing this ground-based node removes the "persistent tracking" needed for terminal-phase interceptions. This makes every other asset in the Gulf significantly more vulnerable to the next wave of "Operation True Promise 4." |
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03-04-26 spal
The greatest Secretary of State Marco Rubio just said America is about to "UNLEASH CHIANG" on Iran in the coming hours and days.
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03-04-26 spal
| SOUTHCOM announces joint U.S.-Ecuadorian operations against "Designated Terrorist Organizations" inside Ecuador. |
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03-04-26 spal
And here we go: Korea halted for 20 minutes
*CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED AFTER S. KOREA'S KOSDAQ PLUNGES 8% |
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03-04-26 spal
| Saudis will stop production; 10 mbpd, 10% of global production. Nowhere to put the oil. |
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03-04-26 savo
monumental f*ch-up
Telegrah-
Energy markets will force Trump to end his reckless war very soon
The president promised to fill the US strategic petroleum reserve ‘right to the top’ when he took office. He didn’t
International Business Editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published 03 March 2026 2:50pm GMT
It is more than a little careless for Donald Trump to hurl the Middle East into chaos without first filling up the US strategic petroleum reserve. Stocks are near their lowest level in 40 years.
It is even more careless to launch this war of choice when the Gulf’s oil industry lacks the pipeline infrastructure to replace dependence on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and when there is zero spare capacity in the rest of the world.
Jim Burkhard, the head of oil markets at S&P Global Energy, said the war threatens to set off the worst oil supply crisis of the modern age, outstripping even the Arab oil embargo of 1973 or the first Gulf War in 1990. Never before has Iran shut down the choke point controlling a fifth of the world’s oil and seaborne gas supply.
“If the reduction in tanker traffic continues for a week or so it will be historic. Beyond that it would be epochal for the oil market,” he said.
Not a single tanker of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has run the gauntlet through the strait since the war began. The cargo tracking group Vortexa warned that there is no way of replacing the supply from Qatar.
“Destruction in the LNG market will be immediate and immense,” it said.
A few oil tankers have made it through but that trickle is unlikely to continue after the Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to “burn any ship” that moves in or out of the Gulf.
Lloyd’s List said tanker rates on the VLCC index have exploded to $420,000 (£316,000) a day but that is academic because the route is now uninsurable. Helima Croft, from RBC Capital, said the Middle East’s energy exports are essentially “stranded assets” until the US comes up with a plan to protect shipping.
She advised markets to expect “cascading outages” of critical supplies. This risks pushing crude prices through $100 a barrel, catching up with the wild spike already seen in the European gas market where benchmark TTF contracts have almost doubled since mid-February.
Goldman Sachs says global LNG prices could double again from here to $25 per million British thermal units.
Should that happen, Europe faces a ruinous bill refilling its heavily depleted gas stocks in time for next winter, with much of the windfall revenue going to US shale gas frackers and liquefaction companies. Do we gnash our teeth or scream?
The US navy was able to protect flows through the Gulf with convoys during the “tanker war” of 1987-1988 – but that was to ship crude going mostly to the US and Europe. To do so today would be to protect supplies headed for China and India.
Experts know that the precise destination of each ship scarcely matters for the global price. Oil and LNG gas are fungible commodities, subject to instant arbitrage on electronic markets. But it would be very hard for Trump to explain to his Maga base why he has got America entangled in a war where US warships must escort tankers going to Shanghai.
The problem is larger than the Strait of Hormuz in any case. Drone attacks by Iran have forced the closure of Qatar’s LNG export terminal at Ras Laffan, as well as the Saudi oil refinery at Ras Tanura. This is a foretaste of what could come as drones change the nature of modern warfare.
The Trump administration is learning the hard way that swarms of cheap drones can quickly exhaust the US arsenal of expensive air defence interceptors, a form of asymmetric attrition known as “firing gold at plastic”. The US is reportedly wasting Patriots worth $4m – badly needed in other theatres – to shoot down $20,000 Shahed-136 drones.
What we don’t know is whether Iran has been able to shield a reserve of its most destructive drones for later attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure. The dangers are obvious.
The world’s greatest concentration of oil pipelines and processing facilities lies around Abqaiq in a region with a large population of marginalised Shia Muslim Arabs, a community with longstanding religious ties to Iranian clergy. These plants have been attacked before by Iranian proxies and sleeper cells. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may get his posthumous revenge.
It is astonishing that Trump precipitated this energy crisis so badly prepared at home.
He promised to fill the US strategic petroleum reserve “right to the top” when he took office. Yet he failed to do so even when prices were low and the cycle was his friend.
The reserve remains heavily depleted at 415 million barrels. The US energy department says the minimum “safe” level in peacetime is around 500 million barrels.
Meanwhile, China has been filling its strategic reserve at a blistering pace of one million barrels a day for the last year. It has ordered commercial companies to fill their inventories as well. The country has at least 1.5 billion barrels in storage.
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The giant stockpile is intended to reduce US energy leverage in a conflict over Taiwan but it serves perfectly to cushion the blow from Trump’s Gulf war instead. Xi Jinping can comfortably tough out a global oil shock for longer than Trump can endure the political heat of exorbitant petrol prices in America.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards know this and – if they can survive – have every incentive to hunker down until Trump reaches his pain threshold. They know that he has no tolerance for oil prices anywhere near $100 a barrel in an election year, and no political tolerance for US military casualties.
They know that he launched this war without consulting Congress or making a plausible case to the American people and against the protest of allies. He did so at the behest of Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and on the basis of claims invented on the hoof and mostly in flat contradiction of earlier assessments by US intelligence agencies.
Trump said he had to act in the face of “imminent threats” to the US but none is believable. The prize for the most daring lie goes to his negotiator Steve Witkoff, who said Iran was “probably a week away from having industrial grade bomb-making material”.
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Were we not told that the Fordow nuclear site had been “obliterated” last June by 14 bunker busting bombs?
Trump says the military onslaught will continue for four to five weeks, or longer: until all his objectives, whatever they may be, are achieved.
One moment he is exhorting Iran’s youth to go out into the streets and brave the live fire of the “basij” militia. We have seen that murderous movie before, in Hungary in 1956, or with Iraq’s Marsh Arabs in the first Gulf War.
The next moment, Trump is mulling the idea of keeping the killing machine in place after all, invoking the Venezuela model of decapitation and co-option as the “perfect, perfect solution”.
Either way, the Iranian regime has agency of its own. The replacement head of the Revolutionary Guard is the hardest of hard-liners, the furthest you could imagine from Venezuela’s pliant and biddable Delcy Rodríguez.
My assumption is that Trump will be forced to the table long before those four weeks are up – and perhaps within days – and will present a partial retreat as a giant victory.
For the 80pc of the global population living in countries that depend on net oil and gas imports, this wild episode is an unanswerable reminder of why it is folly to rely on a costly and technologically obsolete source of energy from the least stable region of the world.
China will accelerate its push for renewable and nuclear power and the total electrification of land transport. So will much of Asia. So will most of Europe since it does not wish to depend on Trump’s LNG for a moment longer than it has to.
The biggest casualty of all is going to be the global oil and gas industry.
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