02-02-26 patient-trader
Savo, Silver is a commodity which is crucial for certain industries. When the prices spike, the factory owners are calling their politicians. The politicians are calling the regulator and they kill the market. That's how the Hunt brothers went bankrupt.
On top you have some mines in banana countries who manipulate the markets.
That's why Silver is the most stupid metal to invest in. Every time it spikes the investors get rug-pulled. |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
Cerebras is undermining NVIDIAs monopoly
https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-is-unsatisfied-with-some-nvidia-chips-looking-alternatives-sources-say-2026-02-02/
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02-02-26 savo
Silver. Right now. Same ounce. Same metal.
New York COMEX: $80
Shanghai SGE: $111
India MCX: $93
Japan retail: $120
Kuwait retail: $106
40% spread between New York and Shanghai.
The largest sustained divergence in precious metals history.
The arbitrage is obvious. Buy COMEX at $80. Ship to Shanghai. Sell at $111. Pocket $29.
Nobody can do it.
COMEX has 108.7 million registered ounces. Paper claims against them: 1.586 billion. Fourteen owners for every ounce that exists. In the first week of January, 33.45 million ounces were physically pulled from the vault. 26% of registered inventory gone in seven days.
One-month lease rates exploded to 8%. Normal is 0.3%. The cost of borrowing silver to arbitrage now exceeds the profit from the trade.
The mechanism that should close the gap is economically dead.
January 30. COMEX crashes 31% to $78. Worst day since 1980. Same day, Shanghai Futures Exchange settles at 29,487 RMB per kilogram. An all-time high. Two exchanges. Same metal. Opposite directions.
January 1, 2026. Beijing reclassifies silver as a strategic material. 44 companies licensed to export. They control 60 to 70% of global refined supply. The gate is locked.
Samsung stopped trusting the exchange entirely. Bypassed COMEX. Locked a direct two-year exclusive offtake deal with a Canadian mine for 100% of output. When the world's largest semiconductor buyer secures silver straight from the ground, the exchange doesn't have a pricing problem. It has a credibility problem.
There are two silver markets now. One trades electrons. The other trades atoms.
The atoms aren't lying.
https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2018219129900253321?s=48&t=JHX4_bRzg43q7__yG__aUw |
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02-02-26 savo
As widely expected, the Chavista-controlled National Assembly approved the hydrocarbons law offering three types of oil production structures: state-owned, JVs and the CPP (as we wrote last week). The second version of the law was altered to further reduce taxes and royalties, likely in an effort to address critiques that the law did not go far enough to attract investment. Rather than a flat royalty of 30% on oil output as under the current framework, the law stipulates "up to 30%" with no presumed floor based on the economic attributes of the project. The same discretion applies to the 50% income tax on oil. Finally, the extraction tax of 33% would be replaced with an integrated hydrocarbons rate of 15%, The law’s text lays out a number of conditions under which these rates could be lowered, but would be up to the discretion of the executive. The law also maintains the possibility for independent dispute mediation and arbitration. Ultimately, the reform opens the door for significantly more private control/involvement over oil projects, and significant tax cuts for participants.
Secretary Rubio testified in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Venezuela on Wednesday, offering more details on how the new oil arrangement would operate. An initial tranche of those proceeds arrived last week ($300mn) and a second tranche arrived this week ($200mn). Rubio explained that proceeds from oil sales that are currently being transmitted through a Qatari bank account would eventually migrate to the UST custodian account. The interim authorities would submit to the US a monthly budget of how the proceeds from oil sales would be used (after accounting for after opex/ capex costs and profit sharing) leaving the residual, including royalties and taxes, to be available to the interim authorities. The use of funds would be audited, though it is unclear how this scheme would work in practice — Secretary Rubio commented that a US entity like the US EX-IM bank could facilitate. Note that this arrangement would only apply to oil-related revenues, which represented 60% of total fiscal revenues in 2024. Non-oil fiscal (or export) and other revenues would not be subject to this UST custodial process. |
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02-02-26 spal
PT - 100% agree on Tech and Tesla.
X-AI and SpaceX which will merge with Tesla is the coming card trick from today's great master of hype.
And yes - makes Tesla look like the garbage that he rolled up for Kimball (Solar City ... previously merged into Tesla). |
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02-02-26 spal
Warsh is beyond doubt credible.
===
Here is how the selection is rationalized:
Trump does not need a crude yes-man. He needs something far more effective: a credible validator. Someone who can justify Trump-friendly outcomes in elite language. Warsh fits that role precisely. He can frame rate cuts as “credibility repair,” accommodation as “institutional reset,” and pressure as “coordination.” That is more dangerous to Fed independence than overt loyalty, because it normalizes political outcomes rather than resisting them.
Prediction matters. A Warsh-led Fed would not instantly abandon restraint. But messaging would align quickly with Trump’s narrative. Policy bias would tilt dovish earlier than data alone would warrant. Pushback would be quieter, internal, and delayed — not public, principled resistance.
Calling Warsh a “yes-man” may be imprecise. Calling him Trump-aligned, incentive-sensitive, and rhetorically accommodating is not. He is not a hack. He is something more useful to Trump: a polished enabler.
====
Bull steepener is the future |
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02-02-26 spal
MATX
MATSON INC
165.214.91 (+3.06%)
Fortress America position ... sleepwalking up.
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02-02-26 spal
ONDS
ONDAS INC
11.100.74 (+7.14%)
Bought the dips here ... they raised capital at c. 12.6 ... this is the "waypoint" of this one.
US military tech play thing. MOMO vehicle.
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02-02-26 Merlino
Pt I really do not know however this highly followed American specialist says dead count is about 10-12 Ukrainians for every Russian.
To judge for the apparent sophistication of Russian arm systems it could be not far from the truth...or perhaps the guy is out of his mind, a liar, on Russian payroll, etc....I do not know
https://x.com/imetatronink |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
| Merlino, if Putin made peace it would become apparent to Russians that he killed hundreds of thousands of Russians for nothing. They would get swiftly get rid of him. The best I hope for is some slowly grinding war. Now, for the first time, the Russian defense budget has been lowered because they are short on funds. BTW: This war is already running longer than the "Great Patriotic War", the Russian participation in WWII. |
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02-02-26 panasonic
"PT: I am super bearish on Tesla"
Very good point on SpaceX, that was the push for the exorbitant salary package in tsla, but with the valuation of SpaceX, tsla becomes pocket money. |
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02-02-26 Merlino
| Interesting post PT, specially end remarks...as always you do not post about war issues |
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02-02-26 patient-trader
Interesting point Spal. Apparently the new story why short term rates can fall is due to de-inflationary AI which which increases enormously productivity. Sounds like the old Greenspan story where cheap Chinese workers allegedly killed inflation.
Anyway, I think Bessent sold Warsh to Trump because he is afraid that some light-weight Trump crony as Fed governor could kill the US credibility with stupidit comments. Warsh is beyond doubt credible because he was against QE and because he has a very rich wife. So he cant be pressured by Trump.
The market reminds of 1987, Gold, stocks, interest rates ... The first shoes have already dropped. The crazy overvaluation of tech stocks will come to an end this year, obliterating ETF savers.
BTW: I am super bearish on Tesla. The fact that the stock can't move up on the super bullish news of a SpaceX merger is suspicious. As Musk owns more of SpaceX than Tesla he will probably dilute Tesla shares in a merger. |
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02-02-26 spal
To be clear I am forcasting and positioning on what is known as a "bull steepening" of the rate curve.
As a former bond trader you know what that implies. |
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02-02-26 spal
Savo - my view was this:
"Warsh will likely be more sympathetic to Trump’s calls for lower rates than Powell was"
Not sure how there is a difference. |
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02-02-26 panasonic
| Savo, makes sense, any case fear and greed will jump to the roof. |
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02-02-26 savo
i beg to differ with spal's view... for Warsh to be a real hawk.. Trump must have turned into a hawk.. and that is not possible for the simple reason that Trump wants real estate to continue going up... which requires lower rates and the stock market to continue bubbling up in nominal terms... which also requires low rates and not higher rates.
Trump does not want the stock market and the real estate market to collapse... he wants the bubble to continue... and the market knows that.. hence gold and silver were going off charts and the dollar index was tanking...
What Trump did want was for precious metals to stop the rise... so they engineer a two step approach... 1) send friendly hands.. may be the fed or the same UST to make a massive sell in silver and gold futures... ie. get the technicals right 2) appoint Warsh and spin his appointment as the new Volcker.
The damage has been caused and who knows how long it will take for the damage to be repaired.. but it will be.
Because whoever sold the futures does not have the silver or gold to deliver... so at some point he will have to buy it back... and who knows how the market will react when that happens.
And as of Warsh.. if it is true that he is a hawk and he plans to increase rates as he should... the stock market and the bond market would have collapsed and they didn't. |
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02-02-26 panasonic
Savo, one more push and Saylor "investors" will find out what unsecured preferred debt really means.
Kids back to work? Excellent joke, there is no job waiting for them. |
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02-02-26 savo
pana.. one more push and Saylor is over and out... without him as buyer of last resort there is no floor for the BTC scam, BTC treasury companies and BTC etfs ... may be Trump decides to bail the sector out with public money...
The good thing is that Gen Z will have to start looking for honest salary paying jobs. |
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02-01-26 panasonic
| Meanwhile BTC under bear attack @$76K, Saylor will buy more coins if finds new suckers to buy unsecured prefs. |
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02-01-26 spal
Overall Market Thesis – Validated, But With Nuance
Core premise: Oil transportation rates are on a cyclical upswing due to tightening vessel supply + strong demand and geopolitical disruption.
Validated by recent market data:
* VLCC spot freight and tonne-mile demand have surged well above historical averages, driven by sanctions, longer reroutes, and resilient crude exports. Fleet utilization near decade highs supports elevated charter rates through at least mid-2026.
* Sanctions on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan shipping reduce effective compliant tonnage, elevating rates.
* Red Sea and Hormuz risk generally keep longer route demand and risk premium elevated (higher bunker, insurance costs).
Risk to thesis:
* New tanker deliveries **begin increasing later in 2026, which could cap upside if demand doesn’t outpace supply then.
* Potential rate volatility if Red Sea and Hormuz situations de-escalate.
Conclusion on thesis:Yes, tightening and disruption support higher rates short term; this implies a positive freight environment will likely persist over the next 3 months.
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02-01-26 carib
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02-01-26 spal
Guys - my understanding - I think all of ours (I think it was you Panas that said that timeframes have compressed). That is for sure in the overfinancialized United States. And with the k-shaped economny and very wealthy asset class (plus elevated asset prices accross the board) - we have to conclude that volatility is also increased.
Silver (and precious metals) shows us this in real time. There is a connection right there between the hot money and k-classs greed. They chased it.
But there is also wierdness throughout the system. Take bitcoin. This is full of half-baked conspiracies that are truely currently beleived about "money". Plus all measures of techno arrogance. The main point though is that these people remain liquid and can express and indulge these beliefs and fantasies. In large pockets of the market the only thing that props these up is this "sentiment".
I do think that longer term the copper supply is impaired and demand is solid - but watch short term for weakness.
I do think that the setup in oil is good (might be 12 months out) - unless peace breaks out in Iran/Ukraine and Vene is settled (tomorrow) or unless we go into a global recession.
I hold tankers (clean and dirty) - in and out of copper - some rate plays (as the curve will now steepen) and some commend economy plays (as the US turns inwards).
Things of course are moving very fast and I don't think I am saying this because I am getting older (I hope not). And things also increasingly depend on the blurtings and dysfunctions of very concentrated power sources - mostly autocrats (in fact) or defacto (posing as democratic leaders).
Much as I like to simply watch the grass growing I think this caravan needs to keep on the move. |
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02-01-26 panasonic
Here a decent explanation on why Saylor is protected under the pref. structure he built:
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/01/31/michael-saylor-s-bitcoin-stack-is-officially-underwater-but-here-s-why-he-likely-won-t-reach-for-the-panic-button |
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02-01-26 panasonic
| I second amateur, congrats on that call Spal. |
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02-01-26 carib
timing, timing and timing..
or more boring investments that, as Warren B said.. are "like watching the grass grow"... |
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02-01-26 spal
Thanks Amateur - the trick is to stay just one step ahead of the mob.
Al Pacino / Coach D'Amato: (01:47) / On Every Sunday
You find out life's this game of inches. So is football because in either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small. I mean, one half a step too late or too early and you don't quite make it. One half second, too slow, too fast, you don't quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break of the game, every minute, every second.
Such a great speech. |
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02-01-26 amateur
Great call, Spal…” start exiting some metals positions today - rotating to energy …”
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