09-29-26 carib
The correlation between the price of West Texas Intermediate crude and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 65 per cent this month, according to derivatives firm Cboe, putting it within touching distance of the level set following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait nearly four decades ago.
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09-29-26 spal
FRO FRONTLINE PLC
09/29/2026 as of 09/28/2026
Qualified Dividend
09/29/2026 as of 09/28/2026
Special Qual Div
All for a good cause. |
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09-29-26 spal
Fearnley Securities raised its target price for Hafnia ($HAFN) to NOK 115 from NOK 90 while reiterating a buy recommendation, based on a Tuesday analysis citing product tanker market recovery.
Analysts expect product tanker earnings to catch up to crude tankers through higher spot and time-charter rates, driven by increased refinery activity in China and the Middle East.
Fearnley lifted Hafnia's 2026 EBITDA estimates by 11% and 2027 estimates by 166%, projecting average MR tanker rates of $30,000 per day next year. |
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09-29-26 savo
tricky business gold pana
short sellers can sell without posting margin in physical gold....just cash.
If prices go up... exchanges ramp up margin... if it goes down they don't. |
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09-29-26 panasonic
"gold down 3.5%"
Adding on weakness.
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09-29-26 panasonic
Merlino, you are perfectly right, the culture of "death".
All other religions embrace life.
Would you feel ok if Shiites had nukes? |
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09-29-26 savo
if by loyal you mean "kiss ass" people I agree.
this presidency has turned into some form of CFK kiss ass presidency.
The president lies or says stupidities and the cronies around clap.
incidentally:
La inflación en España se disparó hasta el 4,9% en septiembre, seis décimas más que en agosto, impulsada principalmente por el encarecimiento de los combustibles y lubricantes para vehículos, según el indicador adelantado del Índice de Precios al Consumo (IPC) publicado este martes por el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE).
I do not think it is any different in the rest of europe or the US. |
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09-29-26 carib
| PS: the impression is Trump is waiting for nov 3 to accept strategic defeat with Iran. But the impression might be mistaken. |
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09-29-26 carib
| Savo: Peter Thiel, his longest-running Silicon Valley backer, last week said that Trump was served by “not very smart but very loyal people”. |
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09-29-26 carib
| Pill: I did not say that "making a deal" would imply the end of the iranian regime, but that some regime hardliners might feel that way.The "hard way" might be the only viable solution, after all. |
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09-28-26 savo
China is importing precious metal at a record pace, as robust investor demand and a strong yuan create stellar conditions for a Far East gold rush.
Chinese August gold imports hit a record, as the country added 44 tonnes of gold to bring the year-to-date total to 1,100 tonnes, according to China's General Administration of Customs. Those figures represent more gold through August than in all of 2025 and are China's highest imported gold levels since 2017.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/china-imported-1-100-tonnes-103000537.html
gold down 3.5% |
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09-28-26 Merlino
unlimited sufferings
..........................
I have been told martyrdom is one main characteristic of Shia islam (since the Karbala battle) |
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09-28-26 pillz
Hyperinflation taking root now.
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If they don't make a deal , this hyperinflation will be the end of the regime imop , but how long it will take , that is the question |
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09-28-26 pillz
But if the iranian side equates "making a deal" with regime collapse, then they might impose unlimited sufferings to their subjects, before capitulating.
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I believe we are in this situation ... but why you believe in making a deal will be a regime collapse ?? |
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09-28-26 victor
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09-28-26 spal
| Indeed ... I drink to that. |
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09-28-26 savo
| I picture the Caribetti family more in Lake Como and Cortina than in Tuscany :-) |
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09-28-26 spal
Vic - I believe that it would have been on the shelves of the Carib family palazzi in Umbria, Tuscany and Veneta for almost 500 years ... so he had more than a few chances for close study ...
;) |
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09-28-26 savo
one needs an additional 14 republicans.. voting to make JD Vance President..
carib.. i would as the opposite question? who will not vote to impeach DT ?
Why would anybody want to sink with DT after he loses midterms?
Politicians supports those who take them to victory... not to defeat.
DT wont be a candidate anyway... better get rid of him asap and try to rebuild the mess that he created. |
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09-28-26 victor
carib, how many times did you read The Prince?
:-) |
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09-28-26 carib
if you read key sections of The Prince carefully, it’s clear that Trump is in many ways the poster child for How to Be a Very Bad Prince.
For starters, after arguing that it is better to be feared than loved, Machiavelli points out that there is something even worse: You could end up hated or despised. To avoid the former, he cautions the prince not to go after his subjects’ property or their women. Trump has certainly violated the former rule, having enriched himself at public expense and undermined the well-being of many Americans through his misguided economic policies.
FP |
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09-28-26 carib
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09-28-26 carib
There is a world in which this year’s energy price surge has triggered a second-round inflationary wave that will take many quarters to contain—not a couple of hikes over three months. There is another world in which all of this is contained by itself as demand is curtailed.
Neither we nor the FOMC members know which world we inhabit—and we are both finding out one CPI print at a time. |
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09-28-26 spal
| In the limited case of an Iran resolution I think he is resigned to the fact that this will come after the mid terms - come what may. |
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09-28-26 carib
Mortgage rates (30Y) apparently up to 7,625%.
Not good for housing, I guess.
People with old mortgages not affected, but unable to move, I guess. |
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09-28-26 spal
| Prices will not come down hard = bread. |
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09-28-26 carib
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09-28-26 carib
I think only very dramatic new events (not bread and circus) could significantly alter the mid-terms outcome.
Prices will not come down hard in the next couple of weeks in the US, in a manner than can be felt by consumers. Those things tame time anyway.
But the Sanate outcome is still a tad uncertain. |
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09-28-26 spal
| It is not likely to get settled before the mid terms. Maybe there are other rabbits he will try to pull out of various hats - I nkow that the COLA adjustment to SS will be a blockbuster and he will buy the wrinkly old codgers off with that. Expect more bread and circuses. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
| Spal, in other words, before mid-terms is "soon", after is good, but kind of "politically" late for DT. |
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09-28-26 spal
| Panas - ok I am not following, but I trust you ... to me it is clear that Iran will run out of money soon. That seems to be a pretty real thing. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
| Spal, Carib...things changed with tariffs, but we need to wait a few days to validate anyway. |
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09-28-26 spal
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09-28-26 spal
On September 28, 2026, the Iranian rial plummeted to its lowest level in history, trading at a staggering 2.4 million rials per US dollar on the open market.
Hyperinflation taking root now. |
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09-28-26 carib
I do not see any impact of mid-terms on China's Iran policy.
Traditionally, China had better relations with the US republicans. |
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09-28-26 spal
| I do expect a couple of desperate attacks on GCC countries. We'll see. But that is the only leverage they have left. |
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09-28-26 spal
Only honey they get is from oil sales - they aren't able to sell. That is my point.
China or no China - no Iranian oil is moving (except for what was already in offshore storage). |
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09-28-26 panasonic
| Spal, my take after mid-terms, China will call Ayatollahs and say "no money no honey". |
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09-28-26 spal
| Well - yes they are a Chinese client. Does China have them on a leash - not so sure. Are they running out of money - yes. Will the mid terms change that? No. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
Spal, my thing, the only one with Ayatollah's kill switch is Xi.
Meeting with DT was good, probably all we be sorted out, but first Xi wants Congress in hands of Democrats, makes sense? |
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09-28-26 spal
All in China's hands, they are wisely using the Iran card to force political changes in US.
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How?
The only oil they are selling is what is offshore on the Malaysian coast.
None of their ships have made it through the US blockade.
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09-28-26 carib
The US calculus, I understand, is that, without oil revenue, the iranian regime runs soon out of money. If China offers good on credit, that might moderate the problem, but not solve it. There is also the logistical problem of shipping goods to Tehran.
Trump, in a business logic, assumes the ayatollahs will then understand that "making a deal" will be the least bad outcome.
But if the iranian side equates "making a deal" with regime collapse, then they might impose unlimited sufferings to their subjects, before capitulating.. |
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09-28-26 carib
Savo: where do you imagine the required 2/3 of the senate votes coming from to impeach Trump?
Even assuming, optimistically, the Dems get 53 seats, one needs an additional 14 republicans.. voting to make JD Vance President..
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09-28-26 panasonic
"Its money runs out mid Nov."
All in China's hands, they are wisely using the Iran card to force political changes in US. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
"después de que Aldama entregara abundante documentación"
That explains the awkward moment at UN, when Delcy approached Sanchez. |
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09-28-26 savo
what will happen in November.
hopefully impeachment |
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09-28-26 carib
La Audiencia Nacional de España investiga cientos de mensajes entre la presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, y el empresario Víctor de Aldama en los que ambos negocian la compraventa de barcos de petróleo y otro tipo de operaciones millonarias en el país.
El Mundo reveló que el Juzgado de Instrucción número 2 ha ordenado a la Unidad Central Operativa de la Guardia Civil rastrear estas comunicaciones en el marco de la investigación sobre la supuesta financiación irregular del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) después de que Aldama entregara abundante documentación, tras llegar a un acuerdo de colaboración con la justicia española. |
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09-28-26 carib
| Interesting to see what will happen in November.. |
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09-28-26 spal
On SOH - yes, but Iran is not getting its own boats or the dark fleet through. Its only revs are from the depleting storage floating off Malaysia and from protection money and releases in the UAE and from Saudi.
Its money runs out mid Nov. |
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09-28-26 savo
Despite the S&P 500 being close to its all-time high as a whole, Morningstar points out that nearly 60% of individual stocks on the index were actually down 20% or more from their all-time highs (1) in August. They also highlight the current volatility of stock prices, with many moving up and down by as much as 20% in just a few months.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/goldman-sachs-says-80-ultra-111500026.html
no buyers of gold in sight though |
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09-28-26 hann
| My friend spoke to some senior guy from Eneos (jp oil). Eneos guy says oil flowing through SOH, no shortage. Just price is issue. Everyone getting but they have to pay Iran. |
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09-28-26 carib
Two "interesting" tax news.
In the UK, tax authorities are assigning a "compliance officer2 to every billionaire with UK links.
In China, tax authorities have decided it's time to "milk the rich".
US remains oligarchy haven. For now. |
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09-28-26 victor
hann, All bad news.
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not all.. you have good gdp growth. |
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09-28-26 hann
09-27-26 victor
hann, which is why food and vegetables are 2x prices in Indo
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i thought it was due to having thousands of islands, which adds considerably to the costs of moving goods from A to B.
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That too. Average farm size is 0.8ha. Difficult to consolidate because of land reform law (which DOJ said is expired but is unclear). Agri policies make it difficult to resell agri land (seller has to retain portion of harvest). Laws very pro labor. No govt investment in roads, transport, cold chain.
All bad news.
But we already know all that |
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