09-02-26 savo
pana.. i pay little attention to "investment" numbers... new money? reinvestment money? local money? foreign money?
I care more about the barrels per day target... |
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09-02-26 panasonic
| Savo, Wirth's interview was key, but investment of $7B over next 5 years (pretty shy) most probably is related to political mine field, private money could take time and my question, how long is too long? |
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09-02-26 savo
Separate deal
the US deal is for the benefit of DT's friends and families...
Chevron, BP, Shell, Eni, Repsol.. are the ones that should pay our bonds.
Imagine 3mm barrels by 2028...at 80 would be 87 bn dollars...
If veni keeps 40% of that...almost 36 bn dollars..
I would imagine enough to service a debt haircut 50% with a coupon of 6%.
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09-02-26 panasonic
CVX plans to produce 600K barrels a day over next 5 years, $7B investment.
Separate deal, private and nothing to do with US Gov. deal. |
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09-02-26 carib
Chevron said Venezuelan crude, which can often be heavy and difficult to extract and transport, would incur total costs of less than $20 a barrel. Its new acreage sits adjacent to existing joint venture holdings.
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09-02-26 carib
for digestion.. I guess we need a few more details..
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09-02-26 leopardo
| The latest agreement hasn't been fully digested yet, Carib. |
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09-02-26 carib
| Veny bonds up again today, probably on the tail of chevron news. |
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09-02-26 leopardo
Need a little more patience Savo.
Prices will retest recent highs and push higher in the not too distante future. |
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09-02-26 carib
I suppose the US strategy is to stabilise Veny, milk her long term, whilst holding firmly by the balls.
The outstanding debt can be dead weight .. or a tool. |
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09-02-26 carib
Raúl Castro en estado grave por un accidente cerebrovascular
La información no ha sido confirmada por el Gobierno de Cuba |
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09-02-26 savo
| they.... for the moment Spal's AI |
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09-02-26 savo
| leo... i think so.... but markets seem to think otherwise |
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09-02-26 carib
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09-02-26 leopardo
| Savo I don’t think they want… |
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09-02-26 savo
| why do they want to screw bondholders? |
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09-02-26 leopardo
I’ m optimistic regarding Venezuela.
It will take time but it is in its WAY to recovery
in all senses economically and politically |
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09-02-26 carib
| Chevron = good news, IMHO. |
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09-02-26 leopardo
| 3/5 mln barrels per day within reach in Vnz.. |
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09-02-26 leopardo
The American oil company Chevron has announced that it has secured new oil fields in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt and plans to more than double its oil production in the country compared with 2026 levels.
According to a company statement, Petroindependencia, in which Chevron holds a 49% stake, plans to invest more than $7 billion over the next five years, with the goal of producing approximately 600,000 barrels of oil per day. |
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09-02-26 carib
Russia secretly aiding Iran in development of supersonic cruise missile technology
The program, codenamed C430L, began in 2023 and was arranged by Russia's state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, in coordination with the US-sanctioned NPO Mashinostroyenia.
Unsurprising. |
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09-02-26 savo
| answer 2: when you leave them alone and mind your own business... |
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09-02-26 carib
| answer to DT: what you provide them with the required tools.. |
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09-02-26 victor
| I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight? President DJT |
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09-01-26 carib
Whan one deals with "100 years contracts" with political implications wisdom requires to base them on bi-partisan consensus.. so that the risk the next guy in power can cancel them is reduced.
On the Veny side, it would be wise for the Rodrigato to seek such consensus within the "dialogue" under way. That should be easy because the veny oppo cannot afford to move against Trump, at present.
On the US side, I am less optimistic, because Trump is no a bipartisan agreement seeker, and mid-term are next. But if the deal is clearly good for US strategic autonomy, and good for US oil co.. I think a broad consensus is within reach. If the Trump family has hands in the till, however, this is likely to turn sour soon, IMHO. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
| I suspect they will try to get a kind of bipartisan 2015-current Veni´s National Assemblies seal of approval of the deal |
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09-01-26 panasonic
"where many of the deal’s biggest legal and political landmines sit"
Political landmines, great way to put it. |
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09-01-26 carib
100 Years of Incertitude: The headline “100-year concession” is less straightforward than it sounds. We unpack the two-layer structure linking NABEP, the Venezuelan state and the U.S. government, including the areas of control Washington has reserved for itself.
Uncle Sam’s Stake: U.S. government equity and offtake rights make this a highly unusual commercial arrangement, raising questions around governance, legal durability and how future Venezuelan governments may view the deal.
Transition by Term Sheet: The White House has explicitly tied the agreement to its post-Maduro transition strategy, raising the political stakes around a structure whose legal and institutional foundations remain only partly defined.
Mind the Implementation Gap: The Fact Sheet provides more detail but still stops well short of an implementation plan. The remaining gaps, from PDVSA’s role to the concession structure itself, are where many of the deal’s biggest legal and political landmines sit. |
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09-01-26 carib
| If the restructuring took place early 2027, and they offered 45% of claim in term of NPV, I would certainly sell half of the position, and consider keeping the rest if the terms of the new securities looks attractive in terms of residual upside. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
| Carib, Yes. That is about my guess, if I understand. About $45-60b actual recovery at mkt value exit time, being lucky. Anything above that to really celebrate. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
| Savo, I have forgotten to say that in this case DT (& Co) is likely on this side of the counter, as a payee and not as a payer. |
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09-01-26 carib
Merlino: Bondholders, contractually, are owed about 110BB$
those bonds are now priced by Mr. Market around 27BB.
If we are lucky, IMHO, we get a 50% NPV haircut.
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09-01-26 carib
| Trump afirma que ExxonMobil «va a entrar» en Venezuela |
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09-01-26 Merlino
if market believed in full Veny bonds recovery.. they would not be trading at 25% of claim, I guess.
............................
What is full recovery? Full face + accrued at mkt valuation? Way to much imho.
Veni is still producing only about 1.2 mmbod (including imported diluents I think) and not much has changed in actual field production actions. They say there are only 2 drills on site. An absolute misery. I expect this will fundamentally change in a few months. Hope no te be wrong. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
Savo, I see it very likely Exxon and Conoco will retake their old fields and new and better conditions for them, perhaps including additional fields, will be part of payment of compensations.
I think oil/gas/other exports moving up should not but help bonds recovery
Regarding DT in the (imho unlikely) case he wants to scr*w bondholders (do not see why) it will be likely and agreement will not be reached before his term ends.
Now in this new scheme I am not sure pdvsa bonds will be equally (or better) treated than republic. May be they will. I do not know |
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09-01-26 carib
| Savo: if market believed in full Veny bonds recovery.. they would not be trading at 25% of claim, I guess. |
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09-01-26 carib
UK Maritime Trade Operations, the shipping authority with offices in Dubai, reported one tanker had been struck by three “unknown projectiles” on Monday but did not identify the ship.
That vessel had been transiting the strait via the route closest to the Omani coast, a channel that the US military has claimed is fully open and under its protection in an effort to get oil flowing out of the Gulf to global markets.
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09-01-26 savo
merlino.. it would be interesting to know who will operate the fields formerly operated by exxon and conoco before chavez went nuts.
Because if it is Exxon and Conoco.. that will probably substract from veni's total debt.
Idem with GoldReserve, etc...
Exports last months were 1.1 mm... add USA's 1.5 MM over time, Chevron's growth and re-entry of BP, ENI, Shell, etc...
why do they need to screw bondholders?
Is it because it is in DT's adn who spent his business life defaulting on his debt? |
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09-01-26 Merlino
Chevron finalising deal to expand production in Veny in two big oil fields in the Orinoco belt.
............................................
It seems Chevron, ENI, Repsol, BP, Shell and many others mid/small size will operate oil/gas fields other than the included in the USA/NABEP deal.
They however will be under a kind of umbrella protection by USA which has a 35% stake in NABEP, besides other essential strategic interests.
I do not see how Exxon and Conoco will remain out of Veni either by association with NABEP or developing other fields like the bunch of corps above
Chinese, Russians, Iranians and undesirable chavistas out of the picture.
I think it likely that by year end most west/allied oil corps will be with the feet on the ground in Veni |
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09-01-26 panasonic
| Vic, yes I read it ... also Sanchez's wife money is not hers, it was deposited in her name by the Mossad :-)) |
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09-01-26 victor
pana...
Spanish PM Sanchez says Israel and Russia spread disinformation on Ceuta migrant crisis
"After July 30 and 31, there was a spread of rumours and disinformation, from social networks linked both to Russia and to Israel, and to an ultra-right international that always uses migration not only to attack Spain, but also to attack Europe and divide it," Sanchez told Cadena Ser radio.
Sanchez said it was "evident" that the two countries had used the crisis to criticise the Spanish government, as they were at odds with Madrid over its position on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The prime minister also ruled out any responsibility on the part of the Moroccan authorities in the sudden influx of migrants who arrived in the Spanish territory.
"No intelligence service with which the Spanish government normally cooperates sheds any doubt, or rather, suggests any doubt, about the involvement in one way or another of the Moroccan authorities," he said.
Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Monday snapped back at the Spanish PM, saying he was "lying shamelessly" about the accusations made against Israel.
"In his interview with Cadena SER today, he lied again, astonishingly accusing Israel of disseminating misleading information regarding the events in Ceuta. This is a brazen lie. Continuing to spread defamatory lies will not distract from Sanchez's disgraceful failure to manage his country's affairs," Saar wrote on X.
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09-01-26 carib
Chevron finalising deal to expand production in Veny in two big oil fields in the Orinoco belt.
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09-01-26 leopardo
| https://albertonews.com/nacionales/alejandro-betancourt-defiende-acuerdo-petrolero-con-ee-uu-beneficiara-tanto-a-venezolanos-como-a-estadounidenses/ |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| Mistery...I guess that in the next few months we should know for sure |
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09-01-26 Merlino
What is Centerview doing, if anything?
..........
Yes, important question |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| We still do not know Carib.... |
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09-01-26 carib
| What is Centerview doing, if anything? |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| Merlino I also think it is a positive for Venny and bondholders.. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
I do not think this deal has much to do with bondholders. Out of the 14 fields in the deal which go to direct/indirect US control trough NABEP 4 where chinese, 1 russian, 2 alex saab and 1 maduro family. USA/Veni get rid of them.
The planned long term production of up to 1.5 mmbod in these fields would not negatively affect the production in other fields either existing or new in negotiations
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09-01-26 leopardo
| I'm wondering if some kind of chat if not negotiation is going on with bondholders but in absence of news I suppose not... |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| I'm not pessimistic but I could be wrong... |
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09-01-26 leopardo
No but negotiation should start before…
Hopefully |
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09-01-26 carib
| Leo: I do not think there will be an offer before mid-terms.. |
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09-01-26 carib
| Trump posted videos on social media that depicted explosions at Iran’s Kharg Island, though the videos appeared to have been created by artificial intelligence. |
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09-01-26 leopardo
I don’t think They want to screw us banks/us funds before
Midterms |
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09-01-26 carib
My impression is the US wants to prepare for a forced restructuring, by making life of potential holdouts most uncertain and thus uncomfortable.
No clue, at present about likely terms.
Buying Veny bonds at 10 cents, in retrospect, was a great idea. Buying them at 50 cents, maybe, or maybe not. |
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09-01-26 savo
difficult to understand what is going on....
debt ballooned because veni was unable to produce normally, export normally, get paid normally and service its debt normally because of sanctions.
That was a US move.
The same US wants now to screw bondholders? |
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09-01-26 leopardo
A fair offer MUST follow.
Many of these bonds are held by Us Banks\\Funds SOOO Trump is not in a position to screw bondholders... |
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09-01-26 carib
they are putting in place some anti-holdouts mechanisms.
will a scalping or a fair offer follow? |
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09-01-26 leopardo
I see the Us Vnz deal as a prerequisite of debt restructuring.
If they want to give bondholders warrants tied to Oil Production they must make oil production increase trough time with certainty and this is exactly what this deal does. |
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09-01-26 spal
| The little gas company that could ... |
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09-01-26 spal
| Alvopetro’s 86% operating netback margin (yielding $59.08/boe on a $68.72/boe realized price in Q2 2026) places it in the absolute upper echelon of global E&P operators. |
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09-01-26 spal
If Alvopetro’s GSA were linked to Henry Hub, their realized gas price would hover around $2.50 to $3.50/Mcf. Under their Brent-indexed contract (at current Brent levels near $85–$90/bbl), Alvopetro realizes $11.70/Mcf (+7% after the August 1 reset)—delivering their industry-leading 86% operating netback margin.
Nice. |
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