09-01-26 carib
| If the restructuring took place early 2027, and they offered 45% of claim in term of NPV, I would certainly sell half of the position, and consider keeping the rest if the terms of the new securities looks attractive in terms of residual upside. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
| Carib, Yes. That is about my guess, if I understand. About $45-60b actual recovery at mkt value exit time, being lucky. Anything above that to really celebrate. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
| Savo, I have forgotten to say that in this case DT (& Co) is likely on this side of the counter, as a payee and not as a payer. |
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09-01-26 carib
Merlino: Bondholders, contractually, are owed about 110BB$
those bonds are now priced by Mr. Market around 27BB.
If we are lucky, IMHO, we get a 50% NPV haircut.
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09-01-26 carib
| Trump afirma que ExxonMobil «va a entrar» en Venezuela |
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09-01-26 Merlino
if market believed in full Veny bonds recovery.. they would not be trading at 25% of claim, I guess.
............................
What is full recovery? Full face + accrued at mkt valuation? Way to much imho.
Veni is still producing only about 1.2 mmbod (including imported diluents I think) and not much has changed in actual field production actions. They say there are only 2 drills on site. An absolute misery. I expect this will fundamentally change in a few months. Hope no te be wrong. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
Savo, I see it very likely Exxon and Conoco will retake their old fields and new and better conditions for them, perhaps including additional fields, will be part of payment of compensations.
I think oil/gas/other exports moving up should not but help bonds recovery
Regarding DT in the (imho unlikely) case he wants to scr*w bondholders (do not see why) it will be likely and agreement will not be reached before his term ends.
Now in this new scheme I am not sure pdvsa bonds will be equally (or better) treated than republic. May be they will. I do not know |
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09-01-26 carib
| Savo: if market believed in full Veny bonds recovery.. they would not be trading at 25% of claim, I guess. |
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09-01-26 carib
UK Maritime Trade Operations, the shipping authority with offices in Dubai, reported one tanker had been struck by three “unknown projectiles” on Monday but did not identify the ship.
That vessel had been transiting the strait via the route closest to the Omani coast, a channel that the US military has claimed is fully open and under its protection in an effort to get oil flowing out of the Gulf to global markets.
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09-01-26 savo
merlino.. it would be interesting to know who will operate the fields formerly operated by exxon and conoco before chavez went nuts.
Because if it is Exxon and Conoco.. that will probably substract from veni's total debt.
Idem with GoldReserve, etc...
Exports last months were 1.1 mm... add USA's 1.5 MM over time, Chevron's growth and re-entry of BP, ENI, Shell, etc...
why do they need to screw bondholders?
Is it because it is in DT's adn who spent his business life defaulting on his debt? |
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09-01-26 Merlino
Chevron finalising deal to expand production in Veny in two big oil fields in the Orinoco belt.
............................................
It seems Chevron, ENI, Repsol, BP, Shell and many others mid/small size will operate oil/gas fields other than the included in the USA/NABEP deal.
They however will be under a kind of umbrella protection by USA which has a 35% stake in NABEP, besides other essential strategic interests.
I do not see how Exxon and Conoco will remain out of Veni either by association with NABEP or developing other fields like the bunch of corps above
Chinese, Russians, Iranians and undesirable chavistas out of the picture.
I think it likely that by year end most west/allied oil corps will be with the feet on the ground in Veni |
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09-01-26 panasonic
| Vic, yes I read it ... also Sanchez's wife money is not hers, it was deposited in her name by the Mossad :-)) |
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09-01-26 victor
pana...
Spanish PM Sanchez says Israel and Russia spread disinformation on Ceuta migrant crisis
"After July 30 and 31, there was a spread of rumours and disinformation, from social networks linked both to Russia and to Israel, and to an ultra-right international that always uses migration not only to attack Spain, but also to attack Europe and divide it," Sanchez told Cadena Ser radio.
Sanchez said it was "evident" that the two countries had used the crisis to criticise the Spanish government, as they were at odds with Madrid over its position on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The prime minister also ruled out any responsibility on the part of the Moroccan authorities in the sudden influx of migrants who arrived in the Spanish territory.
"No intelligence service with which the Spanish government normally cooperates sheds any doubt, or rather, suggests any doubt, about the involvement in one way or another of the Moroccan authorities," he said.
Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar on Monday snapped back at the Spanish PM, saying he was "lying shamelessly" about the accusations made against Israel.
"In his interview with Cadena SER today, he lied again, astonishingly accusing Israel of disseminating misleading information regarding the events in Ceuta. This is a brazen lie. Continuing to spread defamatory lies will not distract from Sanchez's disgraceful failure to manage his country's affairs," Saar wrote on X.
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09-01-26 carib
Chevron finalising deal to expand production in Veny in two big oil fields in the Orinoco belt.
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09-01-26 leopardo
| https://albertonews.com/nacionales/alejandro-betancourt-defiende-acuerdo-petrolero-con-ee-uu-beneficiara-tanto-a-venezolanos-como-a-estadounidenses/ |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| Mistery...I guess that in the next few months we should know for sure |
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09-01-26 Merlino
What is Centerview doing, if anything?
..........
Yes, important question |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| We still do not know Carib.... |
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09-01-26 carib
| What is Centerview doing, if anything? |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| Merlino I also think it is a positive for Venny and bondholders.. |
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09-01-26 Merlino
I do not think this deal has much to do with bondholders. Out of the 14 fields in the deal which go to direct/indirect US control trough NABEP 4 where chinese, 1 russian, 2 alex saab and 1 maduro family. USA/Veni get rid of them.
The planned long term production of up to 1.5 mmbod in these fields would not negatively affect the production in other fields either existing or new in negotiations
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09-01-26 leopardo
| I'm wondering if some kind of chat if not negotiation is going on with bondholders but in absence of news I suppose not... |
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09-01-26 leopardo
| I'm not pessimistic but I could be wrong... |
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09-01-26 leopardo
No but negotiation should start before…
Hopefully |
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09-01-26 carib
| Leo: I do not think there will be an offer before mid-terms.. |
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09-01-26 carib
| Trump posted videos on social media that depicted explosions at Iran’s Kharg Island, though the videos appeared to have been created by artificial intelligence. |
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09-01-26 leopardo
I don’t think They want to screw us banks/us funds before
Midterms |
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09-01-26 carib
My impression is the US wants to prepare for a forced restructuring, by making life of potential holdouts most uncertain and thus uncomfortable.
No clue, at present about likely terms.
Buying Veny bonds at 10 cents, in retrospect, was a great idea. Buying them at 50 cents, maybe, or maybe not. |
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09-01-26 savo
difficult to understand what is going on....
debt ballooned because veni was unable to produce normally, export normally, get paid normally and service its debt normally because of sanctions.
That was a US move.
The same US wants now to screw bondholders? |
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09-01-26 leopardo
A fair offer MUST follow.
Many of these bonds are held by Us Banks\\Funds SOOO Trump is not in a position to screw bondholders... |
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09-01-26 carib
they are putting in place some anti-holdouts mechanisms.
will a scalping or a fair offer follow? |
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09-01-26 leopardo
I see the Us Vnz deal as a prerequisite of debt restructuring.
If they want to give bondholders warrants tied to Oil Production they must make oil production increase trough time with certainty and this is exactly what this deal does. |
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09-01-26 spal
| The little gas company that could ... |
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09-01-26 spal
| Alvopetro’s 86% operating netback margin (yielding $59.08/boe on a $68.72/boe realized price in Q2 2026) places it in the absolute upper echelon of global E&P operators. |
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09-01-26 spal
If Alvopetro’s GSA were linked to Henry Hub, their realized gas price would hover around $2.50 to $3.50/Mcf. Under their Brent-indexed contract (at current Brent levels near $85–$90/bbl), Alvopetro realizes $11.70/Mcf (+7% after the August 1 reset)—delivering their industry-leading 86% operating netback margin.
Nice. |
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08-31-26 savo
“We’re going to hit them hard.”
stupid crook |
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08-31-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
Upwardly ratcheting - gas is priced off a Brent index ... not sure who's bright idea that was, but I approve.
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08-31-26 carib
| “There will be a response” to Iran’s retaliatory attack, Trump told Fox News. “We’re going to hit them hard.” |
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08-31-26 spal
BHRpD
BRAEMAR HOTELS & RES 8.25% PFD Callable
Added at current levels. |
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08-31-26 carib
| Veny bond prices retracing part of early gains.. |
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08-31-26 pillz
Venezuela
https://www.bloomberg.com/latest/us-attacks-on-venezuela |
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08-31-26 leopardo
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08-31-26 leopardo
I meant that prices will reaction smoothly to this deal
They will increase trough time |
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08-31-26 savo
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08-31-26 carib
| Leo: what happens next friday? |
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08-31-26 leopardo
Too early to judge…We have to wait at least
Until friday afternoon.AT LEAST |
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08-31-26 carib
| Veny bonds up a couple of points. |
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08-31-26 panasonic
"U.S. Precision Strike Neutralizes IRGC Coastal Missile Launchers on Larak Island"
Want asymmetric war, IGRC got some...
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08-31-26 panasonic
DT reading colores?
“One of the things I am going to do with the Venezuelan Oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6059809-trump-venezuela-spr-deal/
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