01-30-26 savo
| carib.. the guy studied law... and did some courses in economics.. another ignorant. |
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01-30-26 pillz
Yes, the moves in precious metals are striking. But looking across my screens, the picture elsewhere in global markets is relatively calm.
As we’ve been exploring this morning, the pullback in gold and silver prices come after some pretty ferocious rallies. Because of this, it hasn’t really taken much to shake them.
And while fellow havens like the yen and the Swiss franc are among the worst decliners against the stronger dollar today, they’re only down by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively as the dollar has pared its gains.
Market anxiety tends to play out in equities, but stocks across Europe are actually higher. US futures are pointing lower, but the indicated declines have been paring. Meanwhile government bond markets are quiet.
For now, what we’ve seen has been the result of a stronger dollar, with most of the action confined to the commodities space. |
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01-30-26 carib
| Warsh sounds like an intelligent and competent fellow. |
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01-30-26 pillz
Traders are adding slightly to their bets on rate cuts from the Fed now that Trump has confirmed his pick and yields have turned a little lower at the end of the curve.
The dollar has pared its advance.
Trump said he has “no doubt” Warsh will “go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best.”
Warsh, who served on the US central bank’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 and has previously advised Trump on economic policy, would succeed Jerome Powell when his term at the helm ends in May.
As Catarina Saraiva explains, if confirmed by the Sentate, Warsh will take charge of US monetary policy at a time when many economists and investors see its traditional insulation from elected officials as being under threat from the White House. Warsh aligned himself with the president in 2025 by arguing publicly for lower interest rates, going against his longstanding reputation as an inflation hawk.
Warsh’s selection doesn’t guarantee a change in policy. Interest rates are set by a majority vote of the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee, which is composed of seven Fed governors and five of the 12 presidents of regional Fed banks.
The FOMC held its benchmark rate steady this week after lowering it three consecutive times at the end of 2025, and rates remain well above where Trump has said he wants them. |
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01-30-26 pillz
President Donald Trump has just confirmed in a social media post that he is nominating Kevin Warsh to be the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
There’s not a huge amount of market reaction immediately, with this having been expected following earlier reports. |
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01-30-26 pillz
It’s been a wild morning in Europe and as the US comes in, it looks set to be only just getting started.
At the fore are precious metals, with gold and silver suffering their biggest sell-offs in years as their recent scorching rallies crumble.
Gold spot has tumbled as much as 8%, touching below $5,000 earlier in its biggest drop since 2013, while silver slid as much as 18% and remains on course for its worst day since 2020. Still, the metals remain considerably higher since the start of the year, up 18% and around 40% respectively.
Behind the retreat is a recovering dollar as traders anticipate the Trump Administration’s plans to back Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair will equate to less support for deep rate cuts.
The biggest casualties in equity markets have been miners, with precious metal miners like UK-listed Fresnillo suffering the heaviest losses and US firms Barrick Mining and Agnico Eagle falling in the premarket.
Other mining stocks are also sliding as base metals join the retreat. And it all follows a day which began with an hour-long trading delay on the London Metal Exchange due to a possible component issue, causing confusing at the end of an intensely volatile week. |
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01-30-26 pillz
Not everyone is so pessimistic on gold, with UBS’s mining stock analysts pointing to underlying reasons as continuing to support the precious metal.
These include a move out of US assets, greater interest among institutional and retail investors and strength in physical demand.
The analysts have raised their price forecasts for the yellow metal to $5,600 an ounce by the end of the year, as well as boosting price targets for stocks like Fresnillo and Hochschild.
This is what UBS analyst Daniel Major has to say:
“While gold feels a ‘consensus long’ trade and we remain cognisant that no bull market lasts forever, in our view the macro logic for gold remains robust and we do not see the set-up for a bear market in 2026.” |
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01-30-26 pillz
Volatility has ticked up today with Wall Street’s fear gauge heading towards the key 20-point level.
This is a psychologically-important level on the VIX which tends to signal rising stress in markets. The last time the index topped 20 points was around 10 days ago, when worries over tariffs and a selloff in Japanese government debt rattled investors.
We’re still not quite there on the VIX, but the sharp moves in metals markets are likely ruffling a few feathers. |
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01-30-26 pillz
The pain is spreading to precious metals miners over in the US premarket session, mirroring the declines seen across UK names like Fresnillo, Endeavour and Hochschild.
Newmont, the world’s top gold producer, has fallen as much as 10% in US premarket trading, with Barrick Mining down as much as 13% and Agnico Eagle Miners sliding 11%.
US equity futures are pointing to a grim start to trading overall on Wall Street with contracts on the S&P 500 down 0.9%. |
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01-30-26 hann
OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL Venezuela Sanctions Regulations 31 CFR part 591 GENERAL LICENSE NO. 46 Authorizing Certain Activities Involving Venezuelan-Origin Oil (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this general license, all transactions prohibited by the Venezuela Sanctions Regulations, 31 CFR part 591 (the VSR), including those involving the Government of Venezuela, Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PdVSA), or any entity in which PdVSA owns, directly or indirectly, a 50 percent or greater interest (collectively, “PdVSA Entities”), that are ordinarily incident and necessary to the lifting, exportation, reexportation, sale, resale, supply, storage, marketing, purchase, delivery, or transportation of Venezuelanorigin oil, including the refining of such oil, by an established U.S. entity are authorized, provided that: (1) Any contract for such transactions with the Government of Venezuela, PdVSA, or PdVSA Entities specify that the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States govern the contract and that any dispute resolution under the contract occur in the United States;
except china, nkor, Ru, non usd etc
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01-30-26 pillz
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01-30-26 pillz
Stocks fell with Treasuries as Donald Trump’s administration prepared for the president to nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair, a choice viewed as more hawkish than other contenders.
Gold slid 4% and the dollar gained as a person familiar with the matter said Warsh, one of the four finalists on Trump’s shortlist to be the next central bank leader, visited the White House on Thursday. Still, the selection isn’t final until the president makes an announcement, said a number of people, who requested anonymity to discuss matters not yet public. Earlier, Trump said he plans to reveal his pick Friday morning.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-29/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates |
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01-30-26 pillz
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01-30-26 pillz
Factbox-UBS raises gold price target to $6,200/oz (and there is all the forcast from other houses )
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/factboxubs-raises-gold-price-target-to-6200oz-4475115 |
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01-30-26 pillz
Factbox-UBS raises gold price target to $6,200/oz (and there is all the forcast from other houses )
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/factboxubs-raises-gold-price-target-to-6200oz-4475115 |
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01-30-26 savo
btc approaching Saylor's knock out price..
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01-30-26 spal
On January 29, 2026, Panama's Supreme Court annulled a 25-year contract extension granted in 2021 to Panama Ports Company, a unit of Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings (controlled by billionaire Li Ka-shing). The company operates two major container terminals—Balboa on the Pacific side and Cristobal on the Atlantic side—adjacent to the Panama Canal.
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01-29-26 spal
I don’t think today’s movement means a reversal for
the metals. We shall see..
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That is very hard to tell - I simply try to take heavier exposure earlier on - that is the theory anyhow.
:) |
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01-29-26 carib
Norway’s $2tn wealth fund would lose almost a quarter of its equity portfolio value in the event of climate shocks and more than half would be wiped out by a correction in AI valuations, its latest modelling shows.
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01-29-26 carib
| Nice to see bitcoin losing steam... |
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01-29-26 leopardo
I don’t think today’s movement means a reversal for
the metals. We shall see.. |
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01-29-26 panasonic
Spal, try to stay solvent ;-)
Economic metrics will run similar to airline fares, no profits in coach, first class covers whole flight expenses.
As long as coach people are ok with coke and pretzels we have a chance to arrive to destination, if they riot we all go down. |
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01-29-26 carib
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01-29-26 pillz
| that a good day for jnug -44 points :-) |
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01-29-26 pillz
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01-29-26 pillz
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01-29-26 spal
| Reducing metals exposure. |
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01-29-26 pillz
| interesting gold go, up, like crazy , but jnug go down to my average calculation :-)) |
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01-29-26 spal
AI is likely to magnify prosperity, but it will also magnify risks, and it cannot fundamentally change human nature. A better description of what AI will create is leverage in the economic, political, and military realms. What nations choose to do with that leverage will determine the future. Technology cannot, and does not, erase incentives, undermine money, or invalidate scarcity. It only changes the terrain on which human beings pursue them.
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/even-elons-techno-utopia-wont-make-money-meaningless/
Panas - yes agreed, not so fast ... it will be a bubble, that is all. |
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01-29-26 panasonic
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01-29-26 panasonic
| PBR one day one dollar... |
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01-29-26 panasonic
Spal, not so fast...meta and googl are doing more than ok.
Aapl reports today, will market punish for staying on the sides? |
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01-29-26 spal
| The AI and Bitcoin trades are now on the ropes. |
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01-29-26 spal
In commodities, Brent crude futures hit $70 a barrel for the first time since September after US President Trump warned Iran to make a nuclear deal with the US or face military strikes far worse than the attack he ordered last June.
Copper surged by the most in more than 16 years, surging about 6% and earlier hitting a record above $14,000 a ton as metals extended a dramatic start to the year, fueled by a wave of intense speculative trading in China. Spot gold also crossed $5,500/oz for the first while silver briefly surpassed $120/oz, extending its year-to-date advance to around 63%.
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Probably start exiting some metals positions today - rotating to energy and rate sensitive (curve steepening) schtocks |
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01-29-26 panasonic
Spal, Savo
UBI theory stronger than ever, we can sit in performing assets during transition. |
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01-29-26 spal
BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder — an advocate for more aggressive rate cuts — has emerged as a top contender to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair later this year.
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01-29-26 spal
| Bullion jumped as much as 3.3%, building on a 4.6% leap in the previous session – the biggest one-day gain since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 |
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01-29-26 spal
There are plenty of voices warning that the spectacular gains in metals have run ahead of real-world demand. There’s likely a “technical adjustment” coming as physical buyers in China balk at higher prices, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-head of China equities Trina Chen told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
... watch margin adjustments on Comex or the Shanghai exchange |
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01-29-26 spal
“This is all driven by speculative funds,” said Yan Weijun, head of nonferrous metals research at Chinese trader Xiamen C&D Inc. “It’s likely all Chinese money given the surge is in Asian hours.”
Prices gained as much as 7.9% to trade above $14,000 a ton for the first time ever. The industrial metal, which is used in almost every electrical application, has risen about 25% since the start of December.
Iron Ore, Zinc, Aluminium starting to move also. |
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01-29-26 savo
| the world running away from the fiat fiasco... des-fiatization |
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01-29-26 spal
| Metals moving large in overnight trading. |
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