10-01-26 Merlino
but then there is the debt problem... which the US budget can not service
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I am not sure this is much of a problem for USA at least for the next decade or couple of decades....may be I am wrong
"Why is this (the debt) more of a problem for France and the UK? Beyond their deficits, they also shoulder much higher tax burdens than the US. Tax revenues are 25.2% of GDP in the US, the lowest of the major developed economies - but 35.3% in the UK and 43.9% in France."
Of course the situation looked much more stable a couple of decades ago, before bail outs and QEs |
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09-30-26 savo
pana... americans will consume less ... as they have too much debt...(credit car delinquency is at an ATH)... and that is deflationary as you say...
but then there is the debt problem... which the US budget can not service and the world wont want to refinance.... so they will have to print as carib and pills say....
but what about the other debtors?... will the fed also buy mortgages... and muni debt... and state debt...
how much will they print then?... trillions
Of course the dems can come and change direction... balance the budget and end the profligacy, the waste and the fraud.
I doubt that...
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09-30-26 panasonic
Savo, if credit becomes too expensive people will consume less, and we must take in consideration that many well paid jobs will disappear, plus housing market in the freezer.
That is my deflationary scenario (in max. 2 years).
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09-30-26 savo
pana... inflation is the expansion of money.. price increases are the consequence...
so yes... there is a lot of inflation in years to come... and prices will reflect that. |
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09-30-26 savo
carib.... The USA owes US$ it can print
that is precisely the problem... and is acting as a boomerang
what it was a reassurance in the past has turned now into a curse.
the world knows that the US can't service 40 trn of debt at 5%... hence they will print their way out... so they sell their US treasuries now to avoid future bigger loses.
But of course if people sell USTs... the 5% rate will become 6, 7, 8... etc... add the fiscal deficit and the 40 trn debt will become 43, 45.. 47... more debt, more interest on more debt, more deficit... more debt... more printing... more inflation .. less buyers of USTs... more seller... the definition of a debt trap.
And add the real economy..in particular housing...
I read mortgage rates peaked at 18% in the 80s... from there 30 continued year of falling rates... consequences... people refinanced at lower rates... more money in their pockets.. higher home values... more equity... hence equity to extract... more consumption... people selling house to buy new houses... a circle of happiness... it exploded in 2008.. but the federal go and the fed could come in the rescue...
and happiness was restored... for another 18 years...
now that is in reverse... rates go up... people are locked in their homes... nobody sells... no refi... not equity extraction... no extra cash in the pockets.. less consumption... and where are all those low rate mortgages... there must be somewhere... some entities are losing big even if they do not recongnise it in the balance sheets... the loses exist...
debt cost going up... economic activity going down... the crisis now is a government debt crisis nobody can bail out the US government.. the french government... the spanish government...
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09-30-26 panasonic
Carib, sustained inflation over 2 years from now unlikely imo.
Clips coming in help to reduce pain, locking high rates works for me in retirement, will deploy cash gradually. |
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09-30-26 carib
Panas: as M. de la Palisse would have said... one should buy long term fixed rate safe bonds.. when interest rates peak.
Hence the question: have US$ rates peaked?
The question about inflation is a separate one. But inflation remains the main tool to deal with very large public debts.. |
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09-30-26 panasonic
Carib, locking rates at current levels may not be the worst idea.
It is not abt. 1% more, it's the capital gain potential once deflation kicks in.
So debate should be, will inflation stay high for how long? one year, five, more?
Me say, max 2 years. |
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09-30-26 carib
Panas: question is.. is 1% more yield worth risking 30Y rather than 1, in the current uncertain situation?
Answer? no. |
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09-30-26 panasonic
| Carib, I deployed some cash and bought fixed, so far so bad...cash doing better. |
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09-30-26 carib
Bill Gross (ex pimco)
...my view is: don’t own bonds, with the exception of one-year Treasury bills, which are now at 4.55 per cent. Be cautious with stocks at record levels as higher yields over time will contract profit margins. Be prepared for the end of “what you are used to” stock markets and higher volatility in prices for the benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds
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09-30-26 spal
BHR-PD
Trading at ~$16.05, the Series D Preferreds (BHR-PD) yield ~12.8%. This provides a strong income buffer while the company navigates its corporate restructuring.
Because BHR operates exclusively in the ultra-luxury and resort sector (properties like Ritz-Carlton St. Thomas, Four Seasons, and Pier House Resort), it sits in a demographic tier that remains relatively price-inelastic. Strong Operating Metrics: Q2 2026 results demonstrated a 12.3% YoY increase in RevPAR to $396, driven by average daily rate (ADR) strength, pushing Comparable Hotel EBITDA up 14.2% to $48.4 million.
Luxury vs. Mid-Scale: While middle-tier leisure and urban business hotels struggle with interest rates and consumer spending fatigue, luxury resort RevPAR continues to hold steady, generating the operational cash flow required to service preferred obligations.
The largest structural drag on Braemar (BHR) has been its external advisory agreement with Ashford Inc., managed by Monty Bennett. Historically, Ashford’s fee arrangements and termination penalties heavily favored the advisor over common shareholders.
The Breakup Strategy: Braemar announced the termination of its advisory agreement to transition to internal self-management, aiming for over $25 million in annual G&A cost savings. Funding the Separation via Asset Sales: To satisfy termination obligations and reduce debt, BHR is liquidating select flagship assets. A prime example is the sale of the Four Seasons Resort Scottsdale at Troon North for $372 million (deposit went non-refundable on September 23, 2026).
Proxy & Governance Battle: Activist pressure (from firms like Al Shams Investments and Blackwells) has forced the appointment of independent board candidates and accelerated the exit from Ashford.
While this creates short-term headline noise, it fundamentally realigns corporate incentives toward asset coverage rather than management fee extraction. |
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09-30-26 spal
Today's burst was quite something ... 100% algo driven ... but they are up against cyber Schpal
;) |
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09-30-26 spal
Today's burst was quite something. I think that the disruptions can last say 12 months - this means that the tension is now between momentum and overshooting (which I encourage) and the inevitable sell off when the true horizon is seen.
Still we will have fun watching AI implode in the meantime. |
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09-30-26 panasonic
"the new dollar printers"
Congrats! should have gone all-in :-)))
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09-30-26 spal
| FECCF - FSRU Express ready soon to deploy to Puerto Bahia - Excelerate Energy is moving forward with a refit of a second ship Methane Patricia Camila for stage 2 build out. Gas shortage in Colombia is acute. |
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09-30-26 spal
| ALVOF ... stabalizing ex-div and should resume climb as the reserves in north Brazil are proved out ... drilling program well in process ... should this prove successful then the total gas field rerates. |
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09-30-26 hann
Govt financial assets mainly pension fund which generates 5x
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5x of outflow. US/Eu govt's pension is pay as you go (meaning there's no funded pool to draw from). However Jp actually has a big pool. Even in worst case it's funded from pool for 100 years. If Jp grows a little and pool earns 5% rather than 3%, pension earnings will be 15-20x of outflow. |
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09-30-26 hann
09-30-26 savo
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryanlemand_japan-has-twice-the-debt-ratio-of-the-us-share-7509513679340720129-voZh
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https://youtu.be/xO2aDuaabj8?si=Xm-NiBN_Z9iSlUwX
Takuji Aida advisor to PM Takaichi on Jp economic policy and stats.
Very surprising, not as bad as it looks. Govt net debt only 63% of GDP. Corporate sector net cash and GDP is growing. Govt financial assets mainly pension fund which generates 5x
Yen is weak but allows repatriation od income from offshore assets.
150ish is sweet spot. Jp can export. Focus on increased private/public investmetn - dual use defense, semiconductors, self sufficiency, physical AI, robotics, automation. I guess tightening foreign residency is a way to boost income (by reducing labor supply). Demographics an issue but automation allows labor to do/earn more.
Ai checked some of this. Seems correct. Surprising.
However, regularly spending time there seems Jp retains a lot dynamism. So much construction in Fukuoka/Kyushu. 2 TSMC plants, new museums, rebuilding downtown, improving main park, train system etc. |
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09-30-26 spal
| Tankers go BRRRRR .... the new dollar printers |
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09-30-26 spal
| Seems every fund in the world wants to close the month and quarter with strong gains on tanker schtocks |
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09-30-26 spal
HAFN
HAFNIA LTD
Also ... BTW they are the largest SH in TRMD. |
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09-30-26 spal
| TRMD ... very strong ... probably biggest gainer from the "disrupted" O&G supply lines |
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09-30-26 carib
Savo.
Japan owes ¥ to the Japanese. Japan can print ¥ or legislate about its own domestic debts. It is a Japanese issue.
The USA owes US$ it can print, but non residents are amongst the large creditors. the US$ in the main global reserve and trade currency. Hence it is an issue with global implications.
According to Martin Wolf, the global debt/GDP ratio actually improved since 2021, and the outlier is mostly the USA.
Let us review on Nov 3rd. |
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09-30-26 savo
| https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryanlemand_japan-has-twice-the-debt-ratio-of-the-us-share-7509513679340720129-voZh |
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