01-20-26 carib
| Close to Sri Lanka, I guess. |
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01-20-26 spal
| BREAKING: USS Abraham Lincoln has now turned off its AIS tracking system as it gets closer to the Iranian territory |
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01-20-26 spal
Benefits from US Strategic Initiatives?
Yes, Materion is well-positioned to benefit significantly from US initiatives like the CHIPS Act, defense spending, and critical minerals strategies, given its role in supplying essential materials for semiconductors, defense, and energy.
CHIPS Act ($52.7B for semiconductors): Materion supplies critical minerals (e.g., germanium, gallium) and materials for chip production; potential $2B redirection from CHIPS to minerals could boost domestic processing.
Tax credits (e.g., 45X for advanced manufacturing, 48D ITC up to 25%) support its facilities.
Non-China semiconductor growth is a key driver for 2025/2026.
Defense Spending and Critical Minerals: Beryllium is a critical mineral; Materion holds a $5M Air Force contract for beryllium additive manufacturing and benefits from DoD's $2B Microelectronics Commons and $1B+ in minerals funding.
Executive orders emphasize reducing China dependence, with tariffs (e.g., 50% on copper) and partnerships (e.g., Ukraine, Saudi Arabia) aligning with Materion's supply chain.
Defense consumes ~750,000 tons of strategic materials annually; Materion's products are integral to aircraft, munitions, and surveillance.
Other Initiatives: Inflation Reduction Act/One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provides subsidies/loans for clean energy/minerals ($2B stockpiles, $5B Industrial Base Fund).
Materion's involvement in NASA missions, microreactors (e.g., Idaho National Lab), and fusion (e.g., Commonwealth Fusion Systems) ties into energy security.
DOL's $22M for ethical minerals supply chains reduces risks.
dol.gov
Likelihood: High (70–90%), as these initiatives directly target Materion's core markets, potentially adding 5–10% to revenue growth in 2026+ via contracts and demand surges.
Analysts have upgraded the stock (e.g., KeyBanc to Overweight) citing self-help and margin growth amid these trends.
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01-20-26 spal
MTRN
MATERION CORP
Initiated ... might be a slow boil
Materion (MTRN)
Asymmetry: ★★★★★
Immediacy: ★★★★☆
Why:
Deeply irreplaceable materials exposure
Extremely under-followed
Stock behavior shows baselining after long neglect, volume slowly improving
Risk:
Small cap, thin liquidity
Needs confirmation via contract wins or guidance shifts
Why now:
This is pre-recognition accumulation. Best entered in tranches, not all at once.
➡️ Highest stealth upside |
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01-20-26 spal
KNOT
Parent has made an offer for all units at $10. Requires unit holder approval. Best people are doing there is holding out for a sweetened offer.
Biz is fairly schtrong again there. |
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01-20-26 spal
UURAF
UCORE RARE METALS IN
Adding - command economy schtock
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01-20-26 carib
| SPAL: and what about KNOT? |
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01-20-26 spal
ONDS
ONDAS INC
14.08 (+15.79%)
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01-20-26 spal
Charter was announced today.
Yes, the three-year time charter for the M/T P. Monterey between Performance Shipping Inc. (PSHG) and PBF Holding Company LLC is likely connected to the Venezuelan crude trade, though not explicitly stated in the announcement. Here's the reasoning:Charter DetailsContract Overview: The deal, announced on January 20, 2026, involves the 105,525 dwt Aframax tanker M/T P. Monterey (built 2011) at a gross rate of $31,000 per day for three years (+/- 30 days at PBF's option), starting mid-February 2026.
This generates ~$33 million in minimum gross revenue for PSHG and boosts their fleet backlog to ~$349 million.
Vessel Suitability: Aframax tankers like the M/T P. Monterey are midsized crude carriers (typically 80,000–120,000 dwt) ideal for regional trades, including Caribbean-to-US Gulf or East Coast routes.
They are commonly used for Venezuelan crude exports, which often involve ship-to-ship (STS) transfers due to port constraints.
No Explicit Cargo Mention: The press release focuses on revenue and strategy, without specifying cargo, routes, or trades—typical for time charters where the charterer (PBF) controls employment.
PSHG's CEO emphasized building ties with "energy companies" and securing long-term deals for stability.
Connection to Venezuelan CrudeGeopolitical Timing: This charter aligns with the Trump administration's January 2026 escalation in Venezuela, including Maduro's capture and efforts to boost oil exports to the US.
Venezuelan production is recovering, with flows redirecting from China/India to US refiners—potentially adding 50 million barrels initially.
US imports have already risen modestly under prior relief, but analysts expect a surge.
Market Dynamics: Oil traders (e.g., Chevron, Vitol, Trafigura) and shippers are "scrambling" to secure tankers for Venezuelan crude transfers to the US.
This has caused a "structural change" in the Aframax segment, with Caribbean-to-US Gulf rates spiking to ~$78,795/day (highest since early 2024).
PBF's $31,000/day rate is above the vessel's prior $28,000/day extension with Glencore (ended ~mid-January 2026), reflecting heated demand.
PBF's Positioning: As a major US refiner of heavy sour crudes (like Venezuela's Merey/Boscan), PBF's East Coast (Delaware City, Paulsboro) and Gulf (Chalmette) facilities are optimized for such feedstocks.
Analysts have upgraded PBF stock (up ~14% in early January) citing Venezuelan access as a key upside, widening crude differentials and margins.
PBF already sources Venezuelan oil via partners like Chevron and stands to take more amid eased sanctions.
Likelihood AssessmentHigh Probability (70–80%): The convergence of US-Venezuela policy shifts, surging Aframax demand for redirected flows, and PBF's crude needs make this charter a tactical move for Venezuelan imports. No direct evidence contradicts this, and industry trends support it.
Caveats: Venezuelan recovery faces hurdles (infrastructure, investment delays), and the charter could serve general crude logistics (e.g., Canadian or Mexican heavy oils).
If not Venezuela-specific, it still indirectly benefits from market tightness caused by those flows.
Monitor PSHG/PBF earnings calls or vessel tracking (e.g., via AIS) post-February for confirmation.
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01-20-26 spal
| Panas - I wish I had more. Watching carefully. |
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01-20-26 panasonic
Case for Gold and Silver getting stronger, also for restrictions :-(
EU in a very hard place, they will need to print 24/7 but too many "different opinions" abt. doing it. |
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01-20-26 savo
hay alternativas al comercio con Estados Unidos.
absolutely !!!
Europe has been sending real products to the US nn exchange of funny money and the used that funny money to buy US treasuries and US stocks.
So the US
1) managed to consume what it did not produce achieving a standard of living beyond its menas, and
2) found a fool to finance its fiscal deficit so that they could continue wagging war against the rest of the world
I thought seeing the end of the evil empire was going to be for future generations... it seems we might see it in this one.
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01-20-26 panasonic
| Spal, tks for the piece on onds will join if gets weaker. |
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01-20-26 victor
Von der Leyen anuncia un inminente acuerdo comercial con India
El mensaje europeo es claro en su respuesta a Trump: hay alternativas al comercio con Estados Unidos. Tras cerrar el acuerdo con Mercosur, la UE pisa también el acelerador con el país asiático |
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01-20-26 savo
cac... Savo, according to this podcast, it's because they can finally sell their oil at full price instead of selling it to PROC for just $32."
of course glad to see the US U-turn, stop incising with a policy that did not work simply to please a treacherous opposition and let veni be...
moreover.. help veni be given all the damage causesd by sanctions over the last 8 years.
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01-20-26 spal
UURAF
UCORE RARE METALS IN
will add |
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01-20-26 spal
ONDS
ONDAS INC
13.7351.575 (+12.95%)
Me likely ... adding on dips. |
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01-20-26 spal
Analyze ONDS as per the above framework.
Below is Ondas Holdings (ONDS) analyzed strictly through the same asymmetry + immediacy + accumulation framework we applied earlier. I’ll be blunt and disciplined.
ONDS — REGIME FIT ANALYSIS
Sector Role
Defense-adjacent autonomy + private wireless infrastructure
(Core assets: American Robotics drones + Ondas Networks mission-critical industrial wireless)
ONDS sits at the intersection of three command-economy priorities:
Autonomous systems (drones, ISR, perimeter security)
Secure, non-commercial communications
Industrial / infrastructure surveillance (ports, rail, energy, borders)
This is conceptually correct for the regime shift.
1. ASYMMETRY (UPSIDE VS DOWNSIDE)
Asymmetry Rating: ★★★★☆ (High, but fragile)
Upside Case
Small market cap (~$150M) relative to addressable defense + infrastructure autonomy spend
American Robotics is FAA-approved for BVLOS (Beyond Visual Line of Sight), a real moat
If even one scaled DoD / DHS / critical infrastructure program materializes, revenue can step-function
In a command economy, autonomy vendors often get non-economic contracts (continuity > price)
Upside Multiple:
Realistically 3–5x, not 10x, unless sustained program funding emerges.
Downside Case
Cash burn + dilution risk
Execution dependence on government procurement timing
Market skepticism justified by long commercialization timelines
Downside:
Another 30–50% drawdown if funding gaps appear.
➡️ Asymmetry is real but conditional. This is not a “can’t lose” defense name.
2. IMMEDIACY (TIMING + MARKET BEHAVIOR)
Immediacy Rating: ★★☆☆☆ (Low–Medium)
This is where ONDS currently underperforms.
What We Want to See (but only partially do):
Sustained volume expansion → not yet
Clear higher-lows structure → inconsistent
Institutional sponsorship → nascent at best
Contract visibility → still lumpy
Recent price action suggests speculative interest, not disciplined accumulation.
Moves tend to fade rather than build.
➡️ ONDS looks early, not ready.
3. ACCUMULATION VS DISTRIBUTION
Current Signal: Neutral-to-weak accumulation
Volume spikes correlate with news, not silent buying
Rallies retrace too deeply
No clear “volatility compression before expansion” pattern yet
This matters.
In true command-economy beneficiaries (CRS, LDOS), price stops reacting negatively to bad news first.
ONDS still reacts.
4. BALANCE SHEET & SHOCK RISK
Key Risk: Financing
ONDS is vulnerable to:
Delays in government awards
Higher-for-longer rates
Equity dilution at inopportune prices
This creates timing risk, even if the thesis is right.
5. COMMAND-ECONOMY FIT (STRATEGIC SCORECARD)
Criterion Score
Mission-critical? ✅ Yes
Replaceable vendor? ⚠️ Partially
Politically safe? ✅ Yes
Budget-protected? ⚠️ Not yet
Execution proven? ⚠️ Mixed
ONDS fits the direction of the regime, but not yet its inner circle.
FINAL VERDICT
ONDS RANKING
Asymmetry: High
Immediacy: Low–Medium
Status: Watchlist / optionality position, not core
Proper Positioning
Not a Tier 1 or Tier 2 name
Best used as a small asymmetric sleeve
Add only after:
A multi-year contract announcement, or
Clear accumulation pattern (higher lows + declining volatility)
SIMPLE TRUTH
ONDS is the kind of company that benefits once the command economy is obvious. |
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01-20-26 spal
Carpenter Technology (CRS)
Asymmetry: ★★★★★
Immediacy: ★★★★★
Why:
Clear multi-year defense/aerospace materials scarcity story
Strong margin expansion already underway (execution proven)
Trading behavior shows persistent institutional accumulation, not retail spikes
No near-term regulatory, commodity, or balance-sheet risk
Why now:
CRS already broke its “old steel company” narrative and held the breakout. Pullbacks are shallow and bought. This is textbook regime re-rating with momentum still early. |
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01-20-26 spal
| ONDS - looking for more on dips. Prime contractor for US Military. |
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01-20-26 spal
If Venezuelan exports ramp up (e.g., via U.S. facilitation), PBF could see meaningful increases—potentially 50,000–100,000 bpd or more allocated to its systems, based on historical patterns and current import trends.
This would widen crude differentials, boosting refining margins.
Counterpoints: Competition from majors like Chevron (already active in Venezuela) and global supply factors (e.g., OPEC+ steady output) could cap gains.
Past cycles (e.g., 2023 easing, 2025 tightening) show volatility in U.S.-Venezuela oil ties.
Overall, with U.S. policy shifts favoring access, PBF's setup positions it well for higher volumes ... estimate a 70–80% likelihood in 2026, assuming no major reversals.
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01-20-26 spal
KNTNF
K92 MNG INC
$20.26 (+6.74%)
Gold shining hey Leo?
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01-20-26 spal
OSS
ONE STOP SYS INC
Watch list - war economy co. |
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01-20-26 CAC
Savo, according to this podcast, it's because they can finally sell their oil at full price instead of selling it to PROC for just $32."
First 5 minutes
https://open.spotify.com/episode/5UaPhB9sJS7l9VlOvtVXV8?si=SxoMTsTWTGifieoF2YiH4w&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A752Qk3fUHyJHyRpCztbJ7t
01-19-26 savo
El mercado paralelo venezolano acaba de vivir una de sus correcciones mas brutales en años. En apenas dos semanas, el USDT pasó del umbral de los 900 bolívares el 7 de enero a cotizar alrededor de 450 bolívares al cierre de esta semana, una caída de casi 40% que dejó a traders, ahorristas y analistas preguntándose si esto es el inicio de una estabilización real o solo un respiro momentáneo. |
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01-20-26 spal
CRS
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY
Again a statescraft oriented - war economy co. |
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01-20-26 spal
ONDS
ONDAS INC
12.96 (+6.58%)
New theme ... US Statescraft Co
Looking to add.
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01-20-26 spal
We should aim for the exceptions, rather than the rule.
===
I'll drink to that! |
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01-20-26 carib
as expected..
El Banco de Inglaterra custodia actualmente 31 toneladas de barras de oro venezolano, resguardadas en bóvedas subterráneas en Londres y valoradas hoy en más de 4.000 millones de dólares. Pese a los reclamos del Estado venezolano, el gobierno británico mantiene su negativa a devolverlas, una posición que ha sostenido durante años de litigio judicial.
Durante una reciente sesión del Parlamento británico, la ministra de Exteriores, Yvette Cooper, justificó la decisión al señalar que “los sucesivos gobiernos no han reconocido el régimen venezolano”, argumento que sustenta la actuación del Banco de Inglaterra, entidad que calificó como independiente. |
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01-20-26 carib
I think the japanese government will not need a bailout in ¥, because it's the only entity able to print ¥. They are running a trade surplus, so no external commercial crisis.
But, with debt at 240% of GDP, the government cannot afford rates higher than inflation+growth.
Gold remains king, meanwhile. |
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01-20-26 savo
as said.. the next crisis is a government bonds crisis... Japan first.. then the rest... and nobody can bail out the Japanese government or the use government.
First heard in the board of Colores!
precious metals ...up again.
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01-20-26 carib
Japan’s 40-year bond yield has surpassed 4 per cent as traders sell sovereign debt ahead of a snap election that could hand Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a mandate to accelerate her stimulus plans.
Given the size of the japanese government debt, at what rate does the problem become un-manageable?
They have only debt in ¥, and they can print them ad libitum, so the risk of default is minimal, but high rates increase the size of the problem..
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01-20-26 carib
SPAL: I think your RE business model is fully viable.
It's just not exportable everywhere, and that is fine, because niches can more easily go undetected.
We should aim for the exceptions, rather than the rule. |
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01-19-26 savo
| El mercado paralelo venezolano acaba de vivir una de sus correcciones mas brutales en años. En apenas dos semanas, el USDT pasó del umbral de los 900 bolívares el 7 de enero a cotizar alrededor de 450 bolívares al cierre de esta semana, una caída de casi 40% que dejó a traders, ahorristas y analistas preguntándose si esto es el inicio de una estabilización real o solo un respiro momentáneo. |
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01-19-26 spal
WI REIT
===
I am unaware of any strictly regional (WI) REITS although I am sure they could be found.
I don't see these are (being in RE) rather as investment schemes connected to RE. There are many other considerations ... many with downsides. |
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01-19-26 spal
I am sure that you are getting a good return, but it is more the result of your professional dedication than pure rent.
====
yes - I run it as a business.
I tend to think about rent as clipping coupons while you do not work.
Is a WY REIT a good investment nowadays?
====
This is not comparable to what I do at all - although many still want to compare it. I have actual argued with professional investors about this. I just ignore them nowadays. |
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01-19-26 amateur
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01-19-26 spal
| The 1031 mechanism is very common. The trust mechanism is used by from average joes (me) to very large corporate style investors. |
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01-19-26 amateur
Spal, the rise to market works only for persons, not for corporate entities I believe.
I am sure that you are getting a good return, but it is more the result of your professional dedication than pure rent. I tend to think about rent as clipping coupons while you do not work.
Is a WY REIT a good investment nowadays? |
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01-19-26 spal
Yes, rent controls are part of the scene, too, the us had them for ages, and seem to be coming back, NY marxist-populists are not so different from DT in this area.
====
Yes - avoid these areas or switch to slum lord mode (both can work).
Beleive it or not in RE you really need to understand your own strategy - it is NOT something you can just walk into.
Admi cost is there, if you do it personally you should be paying yourself a salary, and a very good one indeed 😆
====
It is reasonable ... ;)
Now the matter is 100% local, many areas may be nice value. Today.
But the destitute voting masses are increasingly finding politicians that promise to subsidize them by squeezing the rich and the corporations...and the landlords.
====
Yes - but you can plan around this - mostly. Nothing is without risk. But in general my rents lag the average on purpose and my properties are preferred (I think) I have numerous tenants who move from one of my places to another. Having good tenants and good relationships with them is one of the keys to doing this. I trust this makes sense.
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01-19-26 spal
is written up to CURRENT market value - in the hands of the heirs.
Say the buildings are worth $5 million. Say the tax basis is $1 million. The gain is $4 million and the capital gains tax at the Fed and state level would be 40% times $4 million or $1.6 million.
But since my properties are in a revocable living trust when it is triggered the tax basis of the properties that are transferred from the grantor(s) to the beneficiaries becomes $5 million.
This 5 million of market value minus $5 million of basis ... gain is zero.
This is the point of 1031's and the trust structure.
In the meantime the trust is a "pass through" to me and I retain additional RE Investor related benefits.
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01-19-26 spal
Spal, RE is taxed locally first, with RE taxes.
====
Yes - not sure what your point his here though? Are you saying this is an extra layer of taxes (beyond say state and federal?). I think you are - but every RE investor I know including myself passes this tax on. It is a pass-through.
And the the rent is taxable, and the amortization is over non-adjusted costs.
True that you defer income tax with amortizations, but it catches you eventually.
=====
When I was talking about gains I was talking about CAPITAL gains regardless of depreciation recapture.
Can we agree that these are differnt things? And yes depreciation can catches up as the tax basis must be written down.
But the best thing to do would be to study how 1031's work. I do these. What this does is roll the estisting tax basis into another "larger" building. The incremental increase can be depreciated again. Then you do another 1031.
Then when you die the the existing tax basis ... that is now very low because it reflects BOTH the accumulated depreciation of a chain of buildings and market appreciation ... is written up to CURRENT market value.
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Selling and reinvesting adds more deferral, but are not very useful for the small guys.
====
I do it ...
In many big cities in the US, RE taxes have become income tax really, much above any reasonable costs for schools and police.
====
Maybe so, but all RE is local (that is a mantra in the business for a reason) and this is NOT the case where I operate.
Also if it was again it would be a pass-through.
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01-19-26 amateur
Yes, rent controls are part of the scene, too, the us had them for ages, and seem to be coming back, NY marxist-populists are not so different from DT in this area.
Admi cost is there, if you do it personally you should be paying yourself a salary, and a very good one indeed 😆
Now the matter is 100% local, many areas may be nice value. Today.
But the destitute voting masses are increasingly finding politicians that promise to subsidize them by squeezing the rich and the corporations...and the landlords. |
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01-19-26 amateur
Spal, RE is taxed locally first, with RE taxes.
And the the rent is taxable, and the amortization is over non-adjusted costs.
True that you defer income tax with amortizations, but it catches you eventually.
Selling and reinvesting adds more deferral, but are not very useful for the small guys.
In many big cities in the US, RE taxes have become income tax really, much above any reasonable costs for schools and police. |
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01-19-26 patient-trader
So far, Trump was all fun and games. But that seems to be over. He seems to be in self-destruction mode. His ideas and fixations have become so nuts that his allies and friends start to desert him. I think the party is over.
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01-19-26 carib
| Now that Nicolas Maduro has been ousted, investors should again keep an eye on Venezuela, Mobius wrote on his blog on Jan. 19. He himself considers this market attractive. As hyperinflation and devaluation of the national currency encouraged people to invest in the stock market, the main index of the stock exchange in Caracas showed "tremendous growth in bolivars," and in some periods provided returns in U.S. dollars as well, Mobius wrote. |
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01-19-26 carib
| I guess the UK government waits for a legitimate, recognised Veny Government. |
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01-19-26 carib
Danish pension funds were one of the first to repatriate money and reduce their dollar exposure this time last year. With USD exposure still very elevated across Europe, developments over the last few days have potential to further encourage dollar rebalancing.
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01-19-26 savo
thieves
El Banco de Inglaterra custodia actualmente 31 toneladas de barras de oro que pertenecen al Estado venezolano en sus bóvedas subterráneas. Estas reservas alcanzan hoy un valor estimado de 4.000 millones de dólares, pero el Gobierno británico persiste en su negativa de devolverlas tras un extenso proceso legal. |
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01-19-26 savo
Wall Street satanists spent the whole Friday smashing silver..only for it to come back all the way and more today
up 4.5% |
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01-19-26 spal
I much preferred the "old world".
===
It worked for some people and spectacularly well in some cases. |
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01-19-26 spal
| I guess you can save "rocks" and "stones" and "gold" ... but we'd need a needlessly more complex and boreing discussion. I stick to my point on "savings" and "debt" ... which equals "trust" and "belief" ... |
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01-19-26 spal
You can not have "savings" without "debt".
What matter is if you have saved for a good reason or not.
Productivity and technical advanacment have never been greater in the history of the world. I think this matters.
Concerning GDP and government spending - again the same thing applies within the identity. Was it "good spnding" or not ... Also GDP itself is a flawed mirror in my view. |
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01-19-26 carib
SPAL: the picture you paint brings water to Savo's mill.
Political circumstances, however, can change rapidly.
I much preferred the "old world". |
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01-19-26 savo
spal.. i concur with most of what you say except on two things:
a) assets and debt are not an identity for the market. Assets are assets ..debt is debt and they can be very different.. particularly if the assets are unable to service the debt.
b) GDP is an identity... so any government spending "creates" gdp. That does not make the country any more solvent.
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01-19-26 spal
Economic State Craft.
(c) copywrited by the Colores. |
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01-19-26 spal
Savo - the government debt is also an asset. The bigger it is the more assets there are. It is an accounting identity. The debt is simply a dialogue between debtors and creditors.
The US is moving towards a military command economy ... there is similarities with China, but China is way more indebted (internally).
The US goernment will take formal (it has defacto already) control of rates. This ensures better alignment between the military command economy and the "markets".
The military budget will be increased dramatically - you will see this in all sorts of ways.
This will boost GDP substantially.
This will also engage subtantial reshoring. The plan includes a coordinated major lift in US and Latin American coordination. Maduro is simply Act 1.
The global order has is now putting to bed "neo-liberalism" and in 20 years this will be a historical fact. The game has now shifted to econonomic state craft.
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01-19-26 savo
merlino... For a state to be bankrupt I guess it is necessary to have negative equity
i would say it is simpler than that...a country is broke when it needs perpetual central bank QE irrespective of its tax base or the assets that might have.
But the US does not need to be in this situation. It is because its political calss choose to be in it.
If the US would take certain tough decisions it could get out of the mess it is in very rapidly. |
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01-19-26 savo
carib.. you do remember that when subprime exploded Bernanke said: "it is contained". You know how that one ended.
The US is not broke as subprime was contained.
With debt above 100% of GDP...a budget deficit of 50% of income...a president desperately asking for lower rates in an economy supposedly according to him in the best shape it has ever been... the central bank in QE mode and the rest of the world dumping USTs and buying precious metals... the military spending as if there is not tomorrow... i think .. as they say... the writing is on the wall... and the ones writing it on the wall are precious metals buyers. |
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01-19-26 carib
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01-19-26 carib
| Savo: I an too old to understand Trumpism, but I do not think the USA is broke, yet. |
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01-19-26 carib
SPAL: no disagreement with your strategy.. but 99,9% of humanity does not live in Wisconsin..
:-) |
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01-19-26 Merlino
the US is bankrupt....meaning it can not keep up with interest payments on its debt..
......................................
For a state to be bankrupt I guess it is necessary to have negative equity (US is far far away from that) and no financing (still far away from that as local & intl financing still is there besides the capacity to increase taxation) in addition to not being able to fully pay interests on her debts.
I reluctantly say this as I long for the times US debt was way smaller and nobody even imagine thing like QE and the like were possible...and the whole scheme was more comprehensible for old fellows like me.
Furthermore the price level/metrics of US mkts are now so high in historical terms that perhaps they indicate US is anything from bankrupt notwithstanding current prices of gold, silver, etc.
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01-19-26 savo
carib.. just to clarify .. i did say the US is bankrupt... what I wanted to say is that it is broke...meaning it can not keep up with interest payments on its debt...and has the usual options... inflation (understood as QE) or default.
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01-19-26 savo
victor.. my only interest in BTC is to see it go down to 70K so that Saylor is wiped out.
He is now spreading the idea that BTC is energy!
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01-19-26 victor
in gold 4,600 ..
in btc 95,000 ? :-))
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01-19-26 spal
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01-19-26 spal
But the point is laws can be changed.
====
In any biz under the sun - the point is what is expected from someone who watches and understand their market.
======
Savo thinks the US is bankrupt, If that was true US laws could change unfavourably.
Savo is a very interesting fellow, but I do not agree even in the slightest.
Concerning laws changing that can effect me - I do not see anything major on the near or medium term horizon.
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01-19-26 spal
Spal: I own a RE investment co (inherited) renting out apartments.
What is true in Wisconsin is not necessarily true everywhere.
Taxes and management cost eat out 2/3 of revenue.
Then you should add "rent controls" that is rules preventing owners from raising rents and or/expelling tenants even if there is inflation and tenants do not pay what they owe.
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Property taxes on my are 12.5% of revenues. I do not treat them as a cost as it is something that is passed on.
Management costs in my case are zero - as I self manage - I understand that not many people are cut out to be or good at being a landlord or property manager themselves. In my case I do not find it difficult and suspect that this is to my advantage.
Wisconsin is a "landlord" friendly jurisdiction. There are no rent controls and I do not expect to see them. If either factor changes the game is played differently (that is all). My losses from "back rent" in Wisconsin so far are zero.
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