10-07-26 panasonic
"Greetings from Sydney"
Enjoy! |
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10-06-26 savo
Unless you have family here you really have to want to make this trip!
i am giving up on flight traveling... airports and airlines and security checks and passport control have become unbearable... there is no destination that justifies the torment.
I am staying home or go only where my car can take me. Children are free to visit if they wish. If they choose to live in another planet ..so be it... I am not going.
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10-06-26 spal
| Main schtock favorites in US due a correction for sure. Won’t take much. Agree with you guys. |
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10-06-26 spal
| Greetings from Sydney- only 26 hours traveling so far and still waiting for a plane to Adelaide. Unless you have family here you really have to want to make this trip! |
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10-06-26 Merlino
| Veni prices moving up in apparent increased volume. Perhaps new and positive news in the pipeline (and insiders making their trade, I guess) |
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10-06-26 victor
savo
US trade balance sinks deeper into the red as imports hit record high despite tariffs
Oct 6 (Reuters) - The US trade deficit widened more than expected in August as imports jumped to a record high against the backdrop of robust domestic demand, keeping trade on track to again subtract from economic growth in the third quarter.
The deterioration reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday was despite President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports, which he has argued are meant to shrink the trade gap. The nation posted record goods trade deficits with at least three countries, including Mexico.
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10-06-26 victor
carib, when interest rates peak
absolutely. it's the reason for buying them when they are extremely cheap. |
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10-06-26 carib
| But I remember in the 80s buying a General Mills 0 coupon at 4 cents on the $.. |
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10-06-26 carib
Victor: the point is that those bonds might be very interesting when interest rates peak. and then the one with lowest coupon is preferable for persons not subject to capital gain taxes.
Imagine OAT 2072 trades down to 15 (to follow Leo).. and three years later it's back to 45: 200% gain.
(I never bought it, and would not count on stellar upsides) |
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10-06-26 victor
carib, AUSTRIA TF 2,1% ST2117 EUR
is this the one? 2.1% coupon?
bad deal at 100
terrible deal at 200 |
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10-06-26 victor
carib, the dynamic is the same
right.
//
a tad less interesting for those only taxed on coupons..
it's a bad deal, regardless of taxation. |
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10-06-26 carib
of course, but the dynamic is the same.
a tad less interesting for those only taxed on coupons.. |
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10-06-26 victor
carib, Austria 2117.. issued at par... went up to 200!
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then it has a higher coupon than 0.5%.. |
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10-06-26 carib
Victor: I think the highest price for OAT 2072 was around 88.
still.. 75% loss in 4 years!
There is also a Austria 2117.. issued at par... went up to 200!
and now trades around 55... (same 75% loss in 4 years) |
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10-06-26 leopardo
| I'm taxed on both as you know Carib but 12.5 is manageble |
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10-06-26 victor
carib, unless bought at par
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hard to believe anyone would buy this stuff at par |
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10-06-26 carib
| It's a bond for investors taxed on coupons but not on capital gains (unless bought at par in 2022, of course) |
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10-06-26 carib
The only sure thing about AOT 2072.. is I will be dead before maturity..
;-) |
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10-06-26 carib
I can mention the following anecdote:
several years ago I caught a cab at luxembourg airport.
the cabbie had the radio on, with Marine Le Pen having a long tirade against immigrants.
He commented "the lady is bloody right"
"are you french?" I asked
"no, I am portuguese!"
"are you living in Luxembourg?"
"no, I live in France, but work in Luxembourg".
"so, you are twice an immigrant yourself"
silence
"but I am white and Christian!"
"I see, but why are you not living in Luxembourg?"
"because prices here are too high!"
"true, but what about taxi fares? they are twice the french level, here, even if cars and gasoline are cheaper..."
Silence.
Such is, sadly, the average voter. |
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10-06-26 leopardo
Now 4.65 or thereabout...
Waing for 5.35+ |
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10-06-26 pillz
planning to buy if it drops below 18.
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Leo , what's the YTM ? |
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10-06-26 leopardo
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10-06-26 leopardo
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10-06-26 leopardo
| I like the 0.5% OAT 72 planning to buy if it drops below 18. |
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10-06-26 pillz
| look Trump or no Trump all the stock market in US are at all time high, very low unemployment etc.. , but I also don't like this man, it will be very difficult for the next president to arrange their huge debs |
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10-06-26 victor
savo, this from today, a few hours ago..
someone must have told sanchez this was imminent, and made the decision (in haste) to hold elections ASAP.
on sep 27, 2026 (9 days ago) sanchez had said, at a psoe rally, that elections would be in 2027..
and changed his mind a week later.
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Llarena levanta de forma provisional la orden de detención de Puigdemont tras la decisión del Constitucional sobre la amnistía
06/oct/26 - 13:33
El instructor de la causa del 'procés' aclara que se trata de una decisión provisional hasta que se revise la sentencia completa del tribunal de garantías
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10-06-26 carib
Pill: try asking Trump real questions involving math..
;-) |
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10-06-26 panasonic
| I concur with Pilly, France is already conquered territory... |
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10-06-26 pillz
Le maire du Havre a également critiqué le contre-budget présenté ce mardi dans la matinée par le Rassemblement national. «Aujourd’hui, vous présentez un plan d’une désinvolture spectaculaire. Pour séduire, vous promettez des milliards. Pour économiser, vous inventez des milliards. Mais le principe de réalité finit toujours par s’imposer. Ce que vous proposez ne tient pas la route. Et ça se voit», a-t-il affirmé sur X.
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nothing to add, she speak like she understands something, but when one asks a question above it , she can't answer |
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10-06-26 panasonic
"they come and sell futures to bring it back down"
Has to be, my hedge with gold not working, semis are the only thing helping me right now. |
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10-06-26 carib
| Le maire du Havre a également critiqué le contre-budget présenté ce mardi dans la matinée par le Rassemblement national. «Aujourd’hui, vous présentez un plan d’une désinvolture spectaculaire. Pour séduire, vous promettez des milliards. Pour économiser, vous inventez des milliards. Mais le principe de réalité finit toujours par s’imposer. Ce que vous proposez ne tient pas la route. Et ça se voit», a-t-il affirmé sur X. |
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10-06-26 carib
| Pill: I do not like MLP, but my impression is today she sounded like someone who wants to put the house in order, not set it on fire. Obviously her numbers might not add up.. but 90% of voters just take the main vibe, and are not good at math.. |
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10-06-26 pillz
has no interest bankrupting France before taking over.
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I don't know if she can resonate like it, |
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10-06-26 carib
Leo: I wrote the same thing earlier today.
But there is opposing.. and pretending to oppose.. |
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10-06-26 leopardo
| Things will get worse before they get better imho |
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10-06-26 leopardo
| But Carib if Le Pen wants to win she must play hard balls before the election....soo I don't see the budget an easy task and still it won't reduce the deficit below 5% |
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10-06-26 carib
| I think Le Pen now expects to win, and has no interest bankrupting France before taking over. So, maybe the 2027 budget will be less difficult to adopt. |
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10-06-26 carib
Pill: Chirac once said that electoral promises only bind those who receive them.. IMHo if there is a second round between Le Pen and Melenchon.. Marine wins. Second round between Le Pen and Philippe.. Philippe is more likely to win.. but will not have a parliamentary majority.
Le Pen cannot balance the budget without cutting welfare and reforming pensions, IMHO, and will need ECB support, so fighting the EU at the same time will not be possible. |
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10-06-26 savo
gold is up now by 0.88%
it is very easy for the FED to suppress the price of Gold.
Most paper gold trades in the form of half a dozen ETFs.
These guys must infomr the fed at the end of the day the amount bought by investors... that day.
The fed lets' the market prince run up is investors pour in.
Once the buying ceases... they come and sell futures to bring it back down. it doesn't cost the fed anything.
Hence.. gold out of the news. Trump happy. |
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10-06-26 savo
but what I don't understand is why the stock market are on their heist level
pillz i do not know the exact numbers... but i read "breath" is at an historic low... meaning stocks reaching ATH vs stocks reaching new lows.
Apparently 60% of the S&P is already in bear market territory
So the indexes are being driven by a few big cap stocks.
Another explanation is that from here... money printing in the US and europe can only go up...
so stocks might be anticipating future inflation.
i wonder what are the people selling USTs and Euro debt buying...?
gold... not much lately...has to be stocks.
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10-06-26 pillz
Carib, I agree with you, but the market is not agreeing with us, as the yield of France went down after the interview with Le Pen
so the market do not know this women |
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10-06-26 carib
Pill: I agree that promises by populists are not worth the paper they are written upon, but ultimately math and physics laws continue to apply.
I do not really see a significant chance of Melenchon getting elected. Student riots usually help the right, in France.
But turbulent times ahead. |
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10-06-26 leopardo
| I'm buyer of OAT 72 in the 15-18 range now trading at 22.5 |
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10-06-26 pillz
| Carib, Le Pen have given an interview today and she said if she is in power the budget will be only minus 3%, this woman is not normal not only when speaking of money but in general, she will put France in a 2nd revolution .. and if it is Mélanchon it is most dangerous, so personally I see NO solution for France .... |
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10-06-26 carib
There is an OAT 0,5% 2072 trading in low 20s..
It might get in the 10s... |
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10-06-26 carib
| Pill: I guess we agree France is likely to get worse before it gets better.. |
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10-06-26 pillz
| the gold market is reading our site, gold is up now by 0.88% :-)) |
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10-06-26 pillz
| Carib, you give an explanation that the market already feels. France have a very big problem , you have two extremist cartels, and many thinks that they will be in the 2nd tour, soo this is still not in French yield , there is in the ECB a rule from 2022, that if like Italy was with 2% yield higher than Germany, the ECB could intervene, but it was not an intern problem, it was the market that decided it, but on the end the ECB did not intervene as traders panicked and the Italian yield went down, but if the problem (like in France) come from inside the country, I don't know what will happen... |
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10-06-26 carib
Pill/Leo: I suspect the only decent 2027 budget France can get.. is by decree. But then come elections anyway.
If Le Pen wins, she will immediately get a "hot potato".
France needs pension age reform, one way or another (of course exterminating old folks would solve the problem, but raising the retirement age is much more reasonable). French welfare is far too generous, and taxes already far too high, IMHO. |
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10-06-26 pillz
and this is like Savo speak:
Billionaire Ray Dalio warned that the Treasury market is vulnerable to a pullback of demand from China and Japan, two of the US’s largest foreign creditors.
Dalio said the US relies on foreign capital for about a third of its debt, and that Japan and China have already been paring their holdings.
He also warned that the US faces a potential debt crisis within a certain timeframe, and that some borrowers are already starting to feel the squeeze
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but what I don't understand is why the stock market are on their heist level .. and gold is down, and don't take this problem in consideration |
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10-06-26 pillz
| Leo, I don't think so, as France need it now, because they need to make a budget, and probably the 2 extreme party's will not vote it, so they are in a very big problem, as if the ECB will intervene by buying their Tr, there will be a demand of the ECB to make a good budget, how this story will end is the big question, as it is only France and it is not a few states in the EU ,,, so France will need to do it, a good budget but who will vote it, not Le Pen and not Mélenchon ..., so even it is not permitted by the ECB to help one country, that don't make a good budget , it must be an external reason to help a few countries in the EU, and not an internal cause |
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10-06-26 carib
“We are already in a slow-burning, deep and structural crisis,” says Pierre Moscovici, finance minister during the tail-end of the Eurozone crisis in 2012. “France is probably too big to fail, but it is not too big for the markets to punish.”
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10-06-26 carib
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10-06-26 leopardo
| Yes but not now Pillz, maybe in the first second quarter of 2027 |
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10-06-26 pillz
The euro’s recent weakness “is certainly driven by this massive widening of OAT-bund spreads,” said Christian Nolting, Deutsche Bank AG’s global chief investment officer for private banking, referring to the yield spread between French and German government bonds.
“The ECB has now a lot of tools in place, which it didn’t have in 2011 and ‘12. If things go worse, the ECB is able to act,” he said.
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as me and carib told you there will be a buy of Tr in Europe by the ECB |
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10-06-26 spal
| Interesting and exotic stuff Hann - I like! |
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10-06-26 hann
My few recent buys past 12 months -
1) GTCO LN - it's a .... Nigerian bank... haha. Oxymoron? -maybe. First buy last year at 0.066 after direct london listing, 5% port. Added at .095 1-2 months ago and .099 after sale of to 11-12% port. Have to use private bank, real broker to buy. Can't do it in IBKR.
2nd largest bank, multi africa also. Seems well run. CEO on board of Pepsi.
1.3x book value, 5 PE, 9% div yield.
very illiquid, wide spread. trying to round up buying at 0.09 after 1H report significantly below FY targets. Probably won't hit target. Trades in tiny volume at 0.099 last price.
NGN up 12% against USD past 12 months. Terms of trade of nigeria improved a lot w domestic refinery, food substitution plan.
2) Sepl LN - Seplat my March 9, panic buy this year after I realized SOH could get really bad. Sold down 20% of portfolio, mostly Hkg China stuff. Bought at 4.32 GBP even after big runup, 5%port. Now around 8.10, has paid 0.25 USD divs. Will pay another 0.4 USD this year, partially from asset sale. So my Y1 div yield will be 10%. Will dip next year unless oil stays elevated.
High was 8.9 GBP, can't bring myself to sell with mideast situation. Subject of levered change in control, so incentive is to keep paying divs.
This is cheap on EV/ 2P+ contingent resource and conventional/shallow water so capex per 10kbpd is among the lowest can be added incrementally. Nigeria is high tax/high royalty. On the + side, it means u are not likely to be resource nationalized.
Excluding SOH, Rick Rule says past 5 years industry has been underinvesting 200-300bn a year. 2028-29 shortage as underinvestment accumulates and the new big wells (guyana etc) in full production with no additional big supply.
There's a case to hold rather than sell. But I may sell at 9-12 GBP. TBH is oil can stay in the 90s, I would prefer to keep.
3. 1833 Hk - Ping An Good Doctor, first bought end 2024 at 10hkd, negative enterprise value, lots of cash. Started 2%. Biz turned ebitda +. Paid div 9.70. I added slightly price to 3%. Traded down to 6 ex div. In HKG you can choose scrip div. I did and got shares at 6.
Good earnings, some rev growth. Stock shot up to 22 in 2025. This did 6x. I sold 90% of it to 1%.
Growth stalled a bit. Stock back to reality, low of 5.85. Added last week to 5% at 6.3. Now at 6.01, 1.1x BV. Cash per share is 3.4. FCF minimally positive.
A leader in telemed, health management which is tiny biz ($1.66bn mkt cap) in China. Has AI bla bla, tech etc. But, China has very good, cheap, efficient govt healthcare so not sure how necessary this biz. Still trying to find the ideal model. Had to pivot multiple times in the past 10 years. Market doesn't like also because has B2C model did really well during covid, not any more so they are shrinking to almost zero. Targeting bundling w Ping An insurance, however this is maxed out. B2B is growing, the only hope... + senior care.
Catching a falling knife.
Just sharing, though can be interpreted as talking one's book.
Cheers! |
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