11-14-26 spal
The price of helium per thousand cubic feet (MCF) varies widely depending on whether you are looking at wholesale bulk contracts, government benchmarks, or high-end spot markets, which have seen severe tightening:
Government Benchmarks: The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) set its standard bulk gaseous helium price at $1,338 per MCF (effective October 2026), marking a sharp 40% year-over-year jump driven by ongoing international supply disruptions originating in major exporting hubs like Qatar and Russia.
Wholesale & Contract Ranges: Broad commercial wholesale grades generally range from $400 to over $1,000 per MCF, depending on purity, region, and whether it is tied to long-term industrial supply agreements or shorter regional distribution channels.
Spot Market Extremes: In high-demand localized spot markets or regions facing tight logistics constraints (such as parts of Northeast Asia heavily reliant on Middle Eastern shipments), spot prices have cleared $1,000+ per MCF. |
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11-14-26 savo
btc ---> 65k
Saylor's scheme collapsing |
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11-14-26 victor
pana, timing seems odd
//
also the drop in oil and gasoline prices, after the election.
i don't see any improvement in resolving iran since the midterms. |
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11-14-26 savo
btc ---> 65k
Saylor's scheme collapsing |
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11-14-26 carib
| looks like US senate will be 56-44 next year (after last batch of Alaska votes) Vance will have more time for his family life. |
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11-13-26 carib
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy wrote on X that there had been a communication issue having an impact on all Air Route Traffic Control Centers. “FAA technicians are investigating the issue,” he wrote.
International flights will be managed on a case-by-case basis, the agency said. |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Carib, as Vic pointed out, timing seems odd.
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11-13-26 carib
order 5 minutes after NYSE close
it's friday 13th.. |
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11-13-26 carib
"extraordinary circumstances".
No more details.
no news of any attack.
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11-13-26 panasonic
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11-13-26 panasonic
| The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has ordered a nationwide ground stop for all flights across the United States due to reported frequency and radar outages affecting Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCCs) and terminal facilities. |
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11-13-26 carib
| FAA grounds all US flights. No explanation so far. |
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11-13-26 panasonic
| ...and that is how I learned to trade a fomo "rally" via options ;-) |
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11-13-26 spal
this kind of nonsense requires a new generation of hillbillies that think they know.
It happens every 20/25 years
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I move that this statement be official recorded in the annals of the collective wisdom of the Colores.
Do I hear a second? |
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11-13-26 savo
this kind of nonsense requires a new generation of hillbillies that think they know.
It happens every 20/25 years...
2001 Dotcom
2026 AI
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11-13-26 spal
The CEO of a company that has never turned a profit is promising to cure cancer within a decade, right as he's trying to sell you his stock.
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Savo this guy has nailed it here.
This is the same stuff that goes through US market history - the same place that used to have cocaine on coca cola or "Certified Radioactive Water" (a real thing). The witlessness of the general public should never be underestimated. |
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11-13-26 savo
The Noble Update
Anthropic Is Selling Miracles So Insiders Can Cash Out
GEORGE NOBLE
The CEO of a company that has never turned a profit is promising to cure cancer within a decade, right as he's trying to sell you his stock.
Dario Amodei keeps telling the world that AI could cure most major diseases within the next decade, including cancer, Alzheimer's, heart disease and mental illness. He's saying it in the middle of an IPO that's already in trouble, and I think regulators should look VERY hard at a CEO who sells miracles to the public while he's raising money from it.
AI will cure cancer & mental illness - this wild claim by the Anthropic CEO is insulting to our intelligence & immoral.
Amodei is a charlatan, desperate to boost his app-making company as its projected IPO valuation drops by $600 billion & it faces $895B in data centre debt.
Jack Gamble (Nobody Special) and I went through the Anthropic deal on our emergency episode about Nvidia's fallout, and the details are even worse than the sales pitch:
Anthropic already had to shrink its IPO from a $100B raise to about $63B
Big Tech agreed to a $26B private placement to anchor the deal, and Nvidia is one of the anchors
There's no lockup, so insiders can start selling right away
Jack explains how a fast entry rule puts it in the Nasdaq 100 within about 15 days, which means your 401k, your IRA and your pension end up buying it whether you want it or not
I explain exactly when I'd short it, and why I'd wait until after day 1
When insiders have to put their own money in the till just to drag a deal across the finish line, it's a sign of weakness.
Watch the full emergency break-in episode here:
The Noble Update
Emergency break-in episode: Nvidia Is Enron 2.0
Copy link
My former boss Peter Lynch used to say IPO stands for "It's Probably Overpriced," and the academic research on IPOs backs him up. This one comes at a peak valuation from a business that loses money, and it's built to hand the venture capitalists their exit. They'll do everything they can to hold this market up until the deal is done, and once it's out of the way, that incentive disappears.
Don't be the exit liquidity.
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11-13-26 Merlino
Good discussion on AI and mkts guys
I think mkts must sooner or later fall for their own weight....excess corps profitability is the other side of the coin, excess deficits for others. In USA's case gov, households and rest of trading world. But then, I was expecting this fall since time ago... |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, if you scroll back, after CES I was the first to post these guys are delusional on profit margins and cash flow projections.
That said, independently of stock performance, technology "stays" (as did in all previous bubbles).
Only difference, this time there is a second player in town, and plays hardball...or to rephrase, Alice-balls ;-) |
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11-13-26 spal
"I’d say you were a carnival barker, except that wouldn’t be fair to carnival barkers. A carnie will at least tell you up front that he’s running a shell game."
— Adapted from Loren Fox, Enron: The Rise and Fall |
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11-13-26 spal
471TO
@TOzgokmen
·
34m
SLOW-BOILING FROGS:
What is happening in the markets is slow boiling of the frog:
Everybody is hoping nothing ever happens, everything is magically fixed somehow, with fugazi money, and new NVDA CEO + board, probably absolute dorkons, will fix things now that the Casanova is out.
No... NIFTY FIFTY style -90% collapse of the AI bubble by 2030 is in progress
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"The ringmaster has altered, but the circus remains the same."
— Paddy Ashdown |
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11-13-26 panasonic
| Rene Haas been approached by Nvda's board. |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, understood ... I would focus on how widely AI will used by future generations, as we did with all new tech developments...forget profit margins, that is a wildcard.
If yes, which agents will become more popular among the next generations? (forget us, I still can do daily math w/o calculator).
Right now, worldwide, Chinese have a strong presence in tech, and getting stronger. |
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11-13-26 spal
| Hyperscalers are now in trouble --- this spreads to the private credit funds. |
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11-13-26 spal
Panas - it is always the arrogance of the expert that leads to hyperbolic vanity. Today the magicians are the computer scientists.
It is as if the endless probing of mountains of data will somehow solve all of our problems and that more and more data is the solution.
When in reality the essence is found by ignoring most of the noise.
AI cannot induce. This is a critical distinction. Also there is the very real issue of false negatives in its deductive process. Which although quicker is not the same quality in extremis as a human can turn out.
A few examples:
1. Do you have cancer? The machine saids no. Turns out you do.
2. Is that a brick wall? The Tesla saids no. Turns out it is.
3. Is that target a school? The Palantir machine saids no. Turns out it was.
My view is that in the end it will be realized that AI is useful to speed up low risk routines. But the class action liability around its failures around false negatives and the ultimate liability will break it maximalist claims.
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, my case on US, what happens in next two years has more to do political decisions than tech related.
Your view is that AI demand will fade out bcz tech part is over-hyped, if I read you correctly. |
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11-13-26 spal
| US will not stop, China will not stop, people will use AI ... and they will realize its limitations and most of the wankery will fade away ... as much as we can allow it to which if obviously difficult given the current minset., |
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11-13-26 spal
| Meanwhile in Bitcoin land ... |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, when CSCO collapsed it had 220 P/E and no scandal.
So back to AI, will kids use it in future, like we did calculators and internet and smartphones? my answer is yes.
For the first time USA has real competition from another country, will China stop bcz USA stops? my answer is no. |
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11-13-26 carib
| Mossad Director Gofman visits Washington, meets CIA director, pushes to resume war with Iran |
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11-13-26 panasonic
| Spal, I suppose there is a fine team of engineers inside NVDA, Jensen had little time to be in details, he was all about commercial part and chicks. |
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11-13-26 spal
| Nvidia eventually goes the way of Cisco. |
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11-13-26 panasonic
"Burry doubles down on Nasdaq 100 puts, increases bearish SMH position amid Nvidia leadership turmoil"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4672035-burry-doubles-down-on-nasdaq-100-puts-increases-bearish-smh-position-amid-nvidia-leadership-turmoil |
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11-13-26 spal
Every time Nvidia accelerates its release cadence (from Hopper to Blackwell to Vera Rubin), the rental rates and collateral value of the previous generation compress faster than the debt amortizes.
LOL |
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11-13-26 spal
Key Details from the WSJ Report
The August Confrontation ("A Deer in the Headlights"): In August 2026, Huang summoned Kress and his senior finance team to his office to address a ballooning problem: Nvidia was in talks to extend billions of dollars in financial guarantees to AI cloud providers and data-center developers that couldn't afford its chips outright. During the meeting, Huang interrupted Kress’s presentation, calling her "a deer in the headlights" and dismissing her as a "reporting CFO"—meaning someone who tracks numbers rather than helping him define strategy or make bold decisions.
The $250 Billion OpenAI Backstop: Kress had been pushing back internally against Huang's aggressive dealmaking, warning about concentration risk across a handful of capital-constrained buyers. Specifically, Huang had championed a massive $250 billion financial backstop to guarantee debt for OpenAI’s Ohio data center buildout. After the proposal rattled investors, Kress stepped in and reworked the arrangement, cutting Nvidia's initial financial commitment in half.
The Wafer & Memory "Avalanche" and Customer Pushback: Beneath the surface of Nvidia's blowout revenue numbers, Huang warned executives during that same summer meeting that major cloud hyperscalers were actively exploring custom alternative chips, while Nvidia was staring down an "avalanche" of chip wafers and memory it had already locked in via supply commitments. By October, Huang was privately pressuring cloud computing CEOs to recognize the value of Nvidia's hardware, telling them: "You are not establishing the value of my products."
Looks like the AI Hard on is over ...
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11-13-26 spal
| Jensen Huang is on pace to have more than 500 mistresses by this time next year. The growth is insane. AI really creating abundance. I am now sold on this. |
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11-13-26 spal
I mean who needs a middle class anyway? LatAm has done without them for a couple of centuries. Let China try - in this day and age they are just trouble any way ... wanting more and more stuff ... more and more rights ...
;)) |
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11-13-26 spal
Sales sank 8.8% compared with October last year. The latest sales tally fell short of the 3.8 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
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But at least there is avocado toast and cat tiktoks. |
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11-13-26 spal
Bill Bishop
@niubi
“The tighter ties between Nvidia and the Commerce Department also gave Tim Teter, Nvidia’s general counsel, unique influence over the department and its rule-making process. When department staff reviewed drafts of policies under consideration, they sometimes found themselves looking at comments and critiques in the document that had been inserted by Mr. Teter.”
Whoops ... this is getting very slimy. |
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11-13-26 savo
spal... does not look good...
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slumped in October to their slowest pace in more than 16 years as mortgage rates climbed sharply, ratcheting up borrowing costs for aspiring homebuyers.
Existing home sales fell 5.5% last month from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the slowest annual sales pace since August 2010, when the market was still reeling from the late-2000s U.S. housing crash.
Sales sank 8.8% compared with October last year. The latest sales tally fell short of the 3.8 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet. |
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11-13-26 spal
| We have been in the pump phase ... we are entering the dump phase. |
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11-13-26 spal
| It is actually a race to the bottom. |
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11-13-26 spal
If compute is abundant and its marginal cost is zero - then you are playing the wrong game.
Commoditizing the base layer destroys the return on the capital required to build it.
When basic intelligence becomes as cheap as tap water, advantage accrues to whoever controls what cannot be replicated by throwing cheap FLOPs at public internet data ...
As Rafiki said to Simba.
"Look harder." |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, indeed.
Chinese supremacy in AI now seems hard to stop. |
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11-13-26 spal
Last few days Trump has a 60 minutes interview - here is the clip when Trump said a leading AI CEO was on the edge of federal charges.
https://x.com/compound248/status/2120873801843953819?a=zQMDdLGyw76RfuaY-G0&s=20
Jensen is deep trouble. |
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11-13-26 victor
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Board
