09-04-26 pillz
Pill: can't a good AI programme run that call/put programme automatically?
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NO , I tried some trading with AI , and they have NO feeling for trading ... |
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09-03-26 savo
carib... investors decide on investments in the present... not in the past... that fact that veni was at 3 cents a year ago does not mean at 40 or 50 today is not good value. Depends on the alternatives.
Excluding equity... where is a current fixed income instrument or a non current one in the process of being restructured that can offer 50% upside over the next 2 years like veni today? |
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09-03-26 carib
Veny turning into Venezuela saudita, as Leo wrote.. could have bonds trading at UST + 50bp, for all I know.. after a few years, but not in 2027 (IMHO) if the 200BB debt is not haircutted somehow.
Given recovery is a medium-long term process, I guess a warrant linked to long term factorts could help making the deal more profitable. |
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09-03-26 carib
| could see (there is a not in excess) |
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09-03-26 carib
Savo: I also bought Greece very cheap (using the cash provided by greece itself) and sold it too early around 60. I did not expect that € rates would go to zero because of Covid a few years later!
So, I agree that is very possible that a well managed Venezuela could not see her bonds trading with yields just a tad higher than UST bonds. But I do not expect Veny/PDVsa to recognise the entire claim (about 110BB now)and exchange it for new bonds with 5% coupons.
Of course I would be glad to be proved too pessimistic.
40% of CLAIM would mean recovery on PDVsa 2022 12,75% around 90
by end of next year, an upside of 70% from current levels. |
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09-03-26 savo
I have difficulty imagining a recovery value in the next 18 months above 40% of claim.**
i remember feeling a hero when I sold Greece's 3% new bonds at 30 something having bought them at 12... only to see them climb all the way to 100.
we do not know the haircut... we do not know the coupon... we do not know if a warrant...
what we do know is that veni producing oil at full throttle should not trade above Peru, Paraguay, Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras...etc... |
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09-03-26 carib
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09-03-26 carib
To be clear: at the end of april, almost no investor (except Trump+gang) new that a deal involving Betacourt, the pentagon nd oil majors was about to be sealed.
Priced reflected expectations before such news.
If the news are positive (and I agree they are) prices should be higher, coeteris paribus, with the increasing claim being just a small detail.
Time will tell, as you wrote earlier. |
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09-03-26 carib
Leo: that is obvious.
All I noted, is that if the defaulted bond xx was priced at 60 on april 28 2026 and is still priced at 60 today, the implied recovery % of the claim would be lower today than on april 28.
It's not an issue of expectation on future recovery, but simply math. |
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09-03-26 leopardo
It is not a question of Claim or accrued Carib it is
a question of oil production and gdp.
The Last Us/Vnz Deal gives value and certainty to the
Price of oil /oil production warrants and gdp warrants
that will be assigned to bondholders Thus increasing
Defaulted bond prices.
Have I been clear?? |
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09-03-26 leopardo
It is not a question of Claim or accrued Carib it is
a question of oil production and gdp.
The Last Us/Vnz given value and certainty to the
Price of oil /oil production warrant and gdp warrants
that will be assigned to bondholders Thus in reading
Defaulted bond prices.
Have I been clear?? |
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09-03-26 savo
hann.. FWIW.. the rally in stocks is the other side of the coin of the increase in the money supply (M1,M2, etc) the fiscal deficit... the expansion of credit... the fed balance sheet (the famous ample reserves) and the size of the federal debt..
They go hand in hand... I doubt one will survive without the other... if you are negative on the dollar... you are negative on the debt... and if the US does not find takers of its debt at reasonable rates... the whole architecture will collapse.
Not saying it will happen soon... or that it will happen in what remains of our lives. But it may happen. |
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09-03-26 carib
| Pill: can't a good AI programme run that call/put programme automatically? |
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09-03-26 pillz
unless you cover the risk with opposite bets.
Correct?
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yes correct , and mostly it is the premium that make the money ... |
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09-03-26 leopardo
Venny Is on the right path bond prices can continue
Climbing… |
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09-03-26 Merlino
I have difficulty imagining a recovery value in the next 18 months above 40% of claim.
..........................................
I agree however that implies a very nice 60% plus move from current levels. Not bad. Besides, any further move from here in that direction even not reaching those levels would confirm the positive trend and the practical cancellation of any downside from here, which imho is still something we can not yet totally dismiss. The trade at these levels is still a binary one. |
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09-03-26 carib
María Corina Machado, líder opositora y Premio Nobel de la Paz, exigió transparencia sobre los acuerdos en materia energética firmados entre Estados Unidos y el gobierno interino de Delcy Rodríguez.
Destacó que el alcance de los acuerdos todavía se desconoce y generan preocupación por sus implicaciones para Venezuela.
La dirigente planteó preguntas sobre quiénes firman el convenio, qué establece realmente, quién aportará el dinero, cuáles serán las garantías y cómo beneficiará a los venezolanos. Explicó que esperó varios días para obtener información antes de pronunciarse.
"Venezuela vale mucho más que su petróleo. El verdadero valor de Venezuela es su gente, que por las buenas es el mejor socio del planeta, y que jamás pondrá en venta nuestra libertad y la de nuestro país", expresó. |
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09-03-26 carib
Leo: claim increased by 2.5-4.5 points from april, so prices should already be higher by at least one and a half point an average.
On the other hand, higher rates on UST bonds make restructuring less easy..
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09-03-26 leopardo
Vnz 31 trading very near to May highs....let's' see
My take is that they will be broken if not tomorrow in the next few weeks... |
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09-03-26 carib
Pill: I guess the risk there is almost unlimited liability, actually limited by margin calls, unless you cover the risk with opposite bets.
Correct?
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09-03-26 pillz
| I am still in the biz of shorting puts and calls and make good money with it... the tax advantage is big , no tax in buying or selling , no tax on capital gain ... as the tas people consider put and call as a contract and not an asset or shares ...the only cost is max 1$ per option ... |
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09-03-26 carib
Merlino: it is now easy to say buying Veny/PDVsa at 10 cents on the $ was a good idea.. but the question now is if buying it at 50 cents is still an equally good idea.
For prices to move higher.. we obviously need more buyers than sellers.
The question, therefore, are expected recovery values, and exit yields.
It is not reasonable to expect Veny to have many billion $ to service debt in 2027.. but eventually, if they get production over 2MMB a day, and have good reasons for staying current on restructured debt, there can be a significant cash flow.
All that said, I have difficulty imagining a recovery value in the next 18 months above 40% of claim.
Just an opinion. |
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09-03-26 Merlino
The limited info I can get indicates Veni/Pdvsa bond prices are already very near recent April/May tops although not yet there.
Some senior commentators (i.e. F Rodriguez, politicians, bankers, etc.) have criticized the NABEP deal as highway robbery indicating that USA will get some oil at extraction cost, all the rest are just promises and that not much money will flow to the country/gov and even less to pdvsa.
Fwiw I do not see it this way and remain optimistic even accepting that USA will have her good take. I think that all current negative comments are holding prices to move higher.
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09-03-26 panasonic
"It's wrong 40% of the time but it's fast"
LOL, better than CNBC guys ;-)
Hann, I'm using coupons to buy directional bets, aka calls on similar things you are looking at.
Advantage: stop loss in place, markets are acting like "the one flew over the cuckoo's nest" i.e. GLD recent selloff
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Flew_Over_the_Cuckoo%27s_Nest_(film) |
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09-03-26 spal
BHRpD
BRAEMAR HOTELS & RES 8.25% PFD Callable
17.63
If it comes back in to 17 I buy more. I think div is safe and capital gain likely as Braemar shakes free of Monty Bennett. Very expensive to do that, but I think possible.
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09-03-26 CAC
Sorry
Or, if you prefer an ex-US , & NO WHT / No US shares exposure: |
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09-03-26 CAC
Hahn; I’ve actually been investing with pretty much the same spirit lately, solid dividend payers and cash flow.
I’m lazier than you when it comes to stock picking, leaning towards ETFs to do the work.
You might wanna take a look at this ETF:
https://www.justetf.com/es/etf-profile.html?isin=NL0011683594
Or, if you prefer an ex-US , & WHT / No US shares exposure:
https://www.justetf.com/es/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000QYDXKV5
Might be worth taking a look also at their underlying holdings just to get some ideas
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09-03-26 carib
Hi Hann.
I like your logic.
After all, all we need is just one or two good ideas every year, allowing for significant margins of error.
I like dividends when I can cash them tax free, but otherwise I prefer capital gains.
Bonds were very unattractive for many years of extra-low interest rates.Traditional Colores biz was brain dead.
The only exception, more recently, was probably Brasil, where REAL interest rates are still 8-9% (inflation indexed).
Venezuela is a case of resurrection, but I suppose most of the upside is now behind us. |
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09-03-26 spal
| Hann - nice posts and I agree 100% with your strategies. Keep up posted as you develop your ideas. |
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09-03-26 hann
09-03-26 carib
Hann: thanks for in the inputs..
--- welcome!
09-03-26 panasonic
Hann, tks for posting, pdvsa chapter will free sizeable money for most every colores.
I'm trying to lock 8% rates in decent names duration 20+ years.
----
welcome also.
imho USD over time short medium long term likely to significantly weaken against reasonably priced real assets (commodities, real businesses, EM, gold) over the long term. Debt is just too big so the only answer is currency debasement combined w trying to break up Ru, Prc, Iran (5th highest natural resources) and keep africa, indo etc in tow.
so am not sure long dated bonds are the right play.
they/Rick Rule say oil is still ok because of significant underinvestment past decade (global warming crowd etc), $300bn a year shortfall.permian shale has peaked hence the venz heist.
my portfolio strategy is 70% high dividend, value equities that are growing. Bear in mind that 19/20 of these are value traps and cheap for good reason. 30% i target companies that can at least 2x in 3-5 years. my port div yield is about 4.5% to 5%. i spend about 1/3 of divs. these exclude port appreciation. i'm able to grow divs at about 15% per year w biz growth, harvesting, redeploying. i have some companies that are yielding 20-30+% on cost.
i don't trade. i hold for years. am ok w illiquid stocks. if right, then these eventually become liquid and get re-rated. if wrong, there's an exit penalty. generally these companies are market leader at something.... i probably just do 2-3 trades year. it's worked over time. Ph max was 15% of my portfolion Now it's not even 1%. a dog mkt but i've done very ok.
anyway am lookng for ideas. AI is good for data gathering. It's wrong 40% of the time but it's fast.
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09-03-26 panasonic
Hann, tks for posting, pdvsa chapter will free sizeable money for most every colores.
I'm trying to lock 8% rates in decent names duration 20+ years. |
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09-03-26 panasonic
| BondbloX, will use try the screener, seems easy to use, thanks. |
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09-03-26 panasonic
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09-03-26 leopardo
| I do not use it for trading just for infos |
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09-03-26 leopardo
Carib I use it since beginning of 2025
I pay 25 usd per month.
I round it usefull…big big number of different bonds
you can follow…
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09-03-26 carib
BondbloX simplifies bond investing by allowing investors to track & trade bonds electronically – just like stocks. Founded in 2016, we are a team of debt capital market bankers & technologists, spread across Singapore and India, working to realise one vision: Provide easy access to bonds for all investors. The BondbloX Bond Exchange is the world’s first fractional bond exchange, regulated as a Recognised Market Operator by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
found the site accidentally.. |
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09-03-26 carib
| Hann: thanks for in the inputs.. |
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09-03-26 hann
I exited all PDVSA 2026 at net 39 and 2035 at 47. Traded up after I sold. The slippage is not insignificant. But it's ok.
Anyway it's mark to market. With interest, a modest USD gain over the years. Much better than most stocks in Ph, much better than my singapore friend's asia fund over a decade
The new oil agreement strips PDVSA of a lot of assets. Venezuela share goes to govt rather than PDVSA. Legally PDVSA has no recourse because these are sub soil rights - according to AI. I have no faith in gangster economics.
With my panic sale at the start of the war, I'm at 26% cash. My panic buy was Seplat which is up about 75% since 9 March. Best performing oil co over period. Div on cost this year will be 10+%. Not sure what to invest in. Looking mainly for high dividend with growth, high quality, value. And then some potential multibaggers for a small portion.
Interested in Nu which is up about 30% since i started looking this year. Not cheap though. Also 388.hk hk exchange mkt cap over 6 years but on valuation metrics cheapest since 2002. Both are 6x book. 388 owns LME (london metal exchange) so if it is sanctioned it will get clobbered. in addition to all the funds that will exit hkg. not impossible... hkex is 50x since 2002. eventually hkg might be global south/brics financial capital when world bifurcates completely
I feel US tech can correct 80%. Not sure i will wait if I can find enough high div high quality etc. What i see is high div - as long as it real and doesn't blow up - can survive severe market crashes.
Cheers and thanks to all. Without colores i probably would have exited in the 20s.
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