03-26-26 victor
Israeli chief of staff warns military will ‘collapse in on itself’ due to soldier shortage
The chief of staff of the Israeli military has warned that it will “collapse in on itself” due to growing demand and a shortfall of manpower as it fights multiple fronts.
“I am raising 10 red flags before you,” Eyal Zamir told a security cabinet meeting on Wednesday, according to Israeli media reports. He said that it wouldn’t be long before the military was unable to perform routine missions.
He said the military needs a “conscription law, a reserve duty law, and a law to extend mandatory service”. |
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03-26-26 spal
| BREAKING NEWS: Iran has designated the Four Seasons and Sheraton hotels, as well as the Presidential Palace in the Syrian capital, Damascus, as military targets, claiming the presence of American, Israeli, and British experts inside these locations. |
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03-26-26 spal
Amjad Taha أمجد طه
@amjadt25
UAE stands with the United States. Firm. Strong. (He won't but) If Trump calls for a ceasefire with Iran, it will be REJECTED. NOBODY ACCEPTS a CEASEFIRE with a TERRORIST REGIME. Not now. Not AGAIN. Take everyone with you. Finish the job. Speak PERSIAN for once, that’s what the regime understands. Make it a Holy Saturday. Make it a Hell Sunday. Destroy the terrorists. No negotiations. No compromises.
Be like the UAE. Zero tolerance. Elimination only.
===
These clowns are actually starting to ask for it.
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03-26-26 savo
The Sprott Precious Metals Report
is nothing more than The Sprott Precious Metals Report.. that is not news ...is simply what they say...
"In some cases, reserves [including gold] are being drawn down to meet fiscal obligations.
again.. not news.. simply what they say.
You can throw at me what people and anals write in the media or social media... but that is nothing more that what people say... which may be perfectly well be manipulated by the JPs or the Jane Streets of this world
Now let's look at the market action... every time Trump agitates the market down... equities, bonds and precious metals go down... everytime Trump Tacos.. equities, bonds and precious metals go up..
This kind of dynamic repeats over and over... if Central Banks were selling precious metals they would be going down irrespective of Trump and following oil.
To end the only posible explanation as to why the dollar went up and treasuries down is that the market needs dollars...we know that... and sells treasuries. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
| Q: what percentage of liquid assets would other colores bet on oil & related names? |
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03-26-26 savo
Turkey central bank sells, swaps 60 tons of gold after Iran war
read the article... sells 6 tons... equivalent to a billion dollars... nothing.
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03-26-26 panasonic
"Analyst Bernard Dahdah"
Lol, guy is late, news have been reported here in colores last week :-) |
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03-26-26 victor
Israeli opposition warns wars pushing army to breaking point
Israel’s opposition leader Yair Lapid has accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of driving the country into a “security catastrophe” as the war intensifies.
Speaking on the 27th day of Israel’s war on Iran and Lebanon, Lapid said the military is overstretched and lacks the resources to sustain operations across multiple fronts.
“Our pilots, our fighters are currently writing glorious chapters in the history of the State of Israel … But the [Israeli army] is being pushed to the limit, beyond its limits,” he said, warning the government has left “the army wounded, abandoned on the battlefield.”
“The government is sending the army to fight a war on several fronts without a strategy, without the necessary resources and with far too few soldiers,” he added. |
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03-26-26 victor
| carib, mr taco at his best :-) |
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03-26-26 carib
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03-26-26 carib
| Trump extends deadline for finalising non-talks until Apr 6th. |
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03-26-26 victor
:-))
As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-26-26 spal
Mobile Launcher Deployment: Satellite imagery and local OSINT have detected the movement of road-mobile Fattah-2 TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers) from the hardened silos in the Zagros Mountains toward the coastal cliffs of Hormozgan.
Telemetry Activation: SIGINT (Signal Intelligence) has picked up the activation of specific guidance and telemetry frequencies associated with the Fattah-2’s liquid-fuel second stage—a "pre-launch" signature usually seen 4-6 hours before a kinetic event.
Civil Defense Alerts: The activation of NAWA sirens and "shelter-in-place" protocols for essential DEWA (Dubai Electricity and Water Authority) staff at Jebel Ali indicates that local intelligence has reached the same "high-probability" conclusion. |
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03-26-26 spal
| PT - let us know when you can hack into the Trump Fam ... Family Chat. |
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03-26-26 patient-trader
| Loaded some Orsted. Trump is promoting heavily EV and renewables with his BS. |
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03-26-26 pillz
Turkey central bank sells, swaps 60 tons of gold after Iran war
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/turkey-central-bank-sells-swaps-60-tons-of-gold-after-iran-war-93CH-4583189 |
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03-26-26 spal
| Savo concerning Treasuries the GCC Central Banks are using the FIMA Repo Facility and repoing them for cash liquidity - they are not selling them. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Analyst Bernard Dahdah noted that it is "likely" central banks are selling or leasing gold to fund energy purchases and defend pegged currencies as the "petrodollar" flow is interrupted. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Note also - with the Strait of Hormuz closed, physical bullion is a "stranded asset" that cannot be easily exported for cash. Selling at a discount is the only way for local institutions to raise the immediate capital needed to meet margin calls and state payrolls. They have no oil revenue right now. |
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03-26-26 spal
| So they are selling gold - as I stated. |
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03-26-26 spal
| The report states: "In some cases, reserves [including gold] are being drawn down to meet fiscal obligations." This "mechanical pressure" is a primary driver for the current bear market in bullion. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Sprott analysts confirmed that GCC central banks and SWFs—previously the world's most aggressive marginal buyers—have shifted to zero incremental buying. |
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03-26-26 spal
| If things heat up further you will see more "forced" deleveraging. |
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03-26-26 spal
The Sprott Precious Metals Report (March 25, 2026) provides the "smoking gun" for why gold prices crashed from $5,600 in January to the $4,400 range in late March.
The Proof: The report states that GCC sovereigns shifted from "aggressive accumulation" to zero incremental buying as energy revenues stalled.
The Conclusion: "In some cases, reserves [including gold] are being drawn down to meet fiscal obligations." This indicates that while the CBUAE is providing liquidity to banks, the broader Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and state entities are selling gold on the global market to cover the massive revenue gap caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. |
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03-26-26 spal
| The evidence from March 2026 confirms that the GCC financial system is experiencing a significant liquidity pivot. While Central Banks are using their gold and FX reserves as a "backstop" to prevent a systemic collapse, commercial traders and some private institutions are indeed liquidating gold at steep discounts to raise immediate cash. |
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03-26-26 savo
also GCC central banks are currently selling gold (in my estimation) and building cash liquidity. UAE in particular.
they are selling treasuries... not gold |
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03-26-26 spal
NEXT
NEXTDECADE CORP
8.31 (+13.28%)
Someone is betting on Qatar going off line.
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03-26-26 savo
| there may be a deal or there may be a forever war... but given that the main objective of these people is personal, family and friends enrichment... there will be many Tacos in the process... now he is agitating the markets in a negative way... and at some point probably during the weekend after positions were taken... a tweet will reverse the course.. they will take profit and start again. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
"There is plenty oil in the Orinoco belt.."
Yep, this side of the pond doing the hard work to save EU butts, nothing new, already happened with gas pipeline from Russia and EU freezer some accounts and nothing else. |
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03-26-26 spal
Carib - it is possible that Trump calls that bluff. $200 oil is survivable for the US, not for the many other countries that he has called on to assist here.
If pushed and cornered he is likely to act temperamentally. |
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03-26-26 carib
If I got it right (non being a Trumpologist) the US has offered the Iranian regime regime a deal: accept nuclear and external influence castration, in exchange for possible regime survival.
So far the regime declined, which was expected.
The "barbudos" vocally threaten to set the Gulf ablaze, but probably in reality they are testing Trump's determination playing the oil price card.
Outcome difficult to forecast, even for insiders. |
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03-26-26 spal
| EC ... almost fully conflict insulated ... obviously not insulated from Colombian political stupidity ... but even that is being overwhelmed by current global geopolitical developments. Shares performing schrongly now |
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03-26-26 spal
FANG
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY I
200.22
(+2.14%)
Now through $200 ... for sure they will rework wells in the Permian.
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03-26-26 carib
| There is plenty oil in the Orinoco belt.. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Gold is likely to get whacked more now - many institutions will shed it it based on panic rotation ... also GCC central banks are currently selling gold (in my estimation) and building cash liquidity. UAE in particular. |
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03-26-26 spal
If the 6-nation coalition strike occurs as predicted, the Strait will likely face a total physical closure (mines/sunken vessels) rather than just a "permission-based" one.
Prediction: In a "Total Closure" scenario, Frontline’s value could skyrocket further as the world's remaining oil must be sourced from the Atlantic Basin (US/Brazil/West Africa), which requires even longer voyages—further tightening the fleet and potentially pushing FRO shares toward the $45–$50 target. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
| My calls in gold & silver whacked. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
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03-26-26 spal
| The last post ... that says "last post" ... LOL ... came from a different browser ... such are the quirks of our site. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Last post an accident - was an old one sitting in the cache of a different browser. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
"The market eventually "self-corrects" through a global recession."
China misplaced that memo! |
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03-26-26 spal
The situation is best described as a war that is simultaneously at its most dangerous and its most negotiable moment. The 5-day pause Trump granted is the first genuine diplomatic opening since the war started February 28. But Iran's formal rejection of the US plan yesterday, combined with continued missile and drone strikes on Kuwait Airport, Israel, and Gulf states, suggests Tehran is not ready to de-escalate on US terms.
The most likely single outcome — roughly 35–40% probability — is that the five-day window expires without a deal, Trump orders strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, Iran retaliates against Gulf desalination and power systems, and the war enters its most destructive phase yet. The second most likely outcome — roughly 25–30% — is that back-channel mediation produces enough of a framework for a temporary pause, kicking the core issues down the road.
The scenario you originally described — a GCC-initiated offensive — remains the third-order outcome, most likely only in the event that Iranian strikes directly and catastrophically hit UAE civilian infrastructure, triggering the "calculated desperation" logic you outlined. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Demand Destruction: At $150+, global consumption will drop so sharply (especially in Asia) that the market eventually "self-corrects" through a global recession. |
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03-26-26 spal
The "Infrastructure Retaliation" (72 Hours – 2 Weeks)
Price Target: $180 – $220 per barrel
This is the "Black Swan" scenario where Iran executes its threat to target the "Glass Houses" of the GCC.
Refinery & Terminal Destruction: If Iranian drones or missiles successfully hit the Jebel Ali fuel farms or the Ras Tanura export terminal in Saudi Arabia, the disruption moves from "temporary transit delay" to "permanent loss of capacity."
The "Zero-Flow" Realization: If underwriters and shippers declare the entire Persian Gulf a "Total Exclusion Zone," oil would likely punch through the $200 mark. At this level, the conversation shifts from "price" to "allocation" (governments seizing supply for essential services). |
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03-26-26 spal
The "Strike Spike" (First 24–48 Hours)
Price Target: $135 – $155 per barrel (Brent)
The moment coalition aircraft cross the median line and initiate strikes on Iranian launch sites, the market will immediately price in a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. |
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03-26-26 spal
| OSINT monitors have noted a repositioning of Iranian Fattah-2 hypersonic batteries toward the Jebel Ali Desalination Plant and the Khalifa Port. |
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03-26-26 spal
| insurance providers have upgraded the UAE to "Elevated Risk – Conflict-Related Disruptions" for the next 72 hours, signaling that the industry expects a major kinetic event rather than a de-escalation. |
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03-26-26 spal
| US is shifting from "standoff" (long-range) weapons to "stand-in" precision strikes. |
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03-26-26 spal
Pakistan - locked and loaded.
Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA): Signed in September 2025, this pact with Saudi Arabia is Pakistan’s "Red Line." It treats an attack on Saudi territory as an attack on Pakistan. While Pakistan hasn't joined the offensive, it has reportedly signaled that any Iranian move to target Mecca, Medina, or Riyadh would trigger a full military response. |
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03-26-26 spal
Probability of Strike: 85% (Conditional on the Hormuz ultimatum).
Primary Actors: US & Israel (Heavy lifting/EW), UAE & KSA (Tactical strikes/Air cover), Bahrain/Jordan/Qatar/Kuwait (Logistical & Intelligence support).
The Outcome: Expect a "shock and awe" style aerial campaign lasting 48 hours, followed by a massive diplomatic push for a ceasefire. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Sensor Hand-off: OSINT analysis of regional radar signatures shows the activation of a "Unified Air Defense & Strike Shroud." UAE and Saudi sensors are now fully integrated with CENTCOM’s Link-16 network, allowing US B-21s or B-2s to provide the "shroud" (Electronic Warfare) while regional partners provide the "payload" (Surgical strikes). |
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03-26-26 spal
Aviation Signal: Over the last 12 hours, OSINT flight trackers (ADS-B) have recorded UAE Air Force (UAEAF) F-16 Block 60s and Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) F-15SAs departing from Al Dhafra and King Abdulaziz bases in "large-force employment" (LFE) formations.
Logic: Unlike the solo "Combat Air Patrols" seen last week, these jets are flying in coordinated groups of 8–12, accompanied by A330 MRTT tankers. This indicates practice for long-range strikes rather than coastal defense. |
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03-26-26 spal
| The convergence of OSINT signals, diplomatic shifts, and military movements suggests that a coordinated "counter-force" operation involving the 6-nation GCC+ coalition is not just a possibility, but the most probable outcome within the next 72 hours. |
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03-26-26 spal
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03-26-26 spal
72 hour countdown to massive attack on Iran ...
OSINT flight data from the last 12 hours shows UAEAF F-16s and Saudi F-15SAs flying in coordinated strike formations (with tankers and EW support) rather than solo defensive patrols. |
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03-26-26 spal
UAE ... on war footing ...
1. Detection of Depletion:
Iran is currently launching "saturation attacks" (over 1,800 drones to date) to bleed the UAE’s supply of Patriot and THAAD interceptors.
2. The Window of Action:
The UAE realizes that if they continue a "defense-only" posture, they will eventually run out of interceptors before Iran runs out of cheap drones.
3. The Escalation Conclusion:
To save their infrastructure, they must "strike the archer, not the arrows." By using the massive US/Israeli strikes as "noise," the UAE can conduct deniable or "proactive defense" strikes on IRGC launch sites in Hormozgan to stop the flow. |
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03-26-26 victor
pana, andalucia poll. today.
montero gets KILLED with only 25 seats, only 3 more seats than vox.
sanchez is so desperate that he's willing to sacrifice his own vp in order to have a fighting chance against the PP in andalucia.
andalucia.. former psoe stronghold.
//
https://electomania.es/encuesta-andalucia-data10-25-mar-moreno-roza-la-absoluta-vox-acecha-al-psoe/
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03-26-26 victor
pana, sanchez is very worried of losing his job.
he senses he's going to lose.
3 years ago sanchez LOST. feijoo won.
remember that.
//
montero is the vp, soon she will resign so she can go back to andalucia, and try to win the regional elections..
most likely scenario she is going to lose IN ANDALUCIA.. the former psoe stronghold.
so she asked sanchez for a favor: "in order to help me out in andalucia, call early elections for the same sunday as andalucia elections.. thus encouraging psoe voters to come out and vote for me.."
SANCHEZ REFUSED.
and this is coming from his own vp, and his own hand-picked candidate to run in andalucia.
sanchez is terrified of calling elections.
//
this is from today:
Montero presionó para el 'superdomingo' y Sánchez solo le prometió «implicación» en campaña
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03-26-26 savo
the us housing market seems to be frozen... to unfreeze it prices should drop significantly... that would put most recent buyers into negative equity and banks into insolvency...
death by inflation or death by financial crisis... Trumkenstein and the dollar are doomed.
***
Mortgage rates on a 30-year loan just hit 7 percent, intensifying problems on the demand side. Mortgages plus insurance—which turns a half-million dollar house into a $1.2 million house plus property taxes—became unaffordable for another class of buyers while already out of reach for most people.
On the supply side, millions of existing homeowners are locked into COVID-era mortgages of 3 percent or lower, which makes them negative in real terms. That’s a great deal unless you sell and then have to buy again. It would make no sense to sell in any case, but you are still stuck paying ever higher property taxes on ever higher valuations.
This has produced a problem that is evident in January’s new home sales numbers, which fell 18 percent, the largest drop in 13 years and a level comparable to the bust following the 2008 financial crisis that began with housing. What’s happening in real time is suggested by the anecdotes. People are neither selling nor buying—unless of course you have a full load of cash on hand.
The picture this creates is one of illusory wealth, on one hand, and frustrated renters on the other. The existing owners are paying ever higher property taxes on rising home valuations but their own joy comes from looking at their paper wealth rise on Zillow. It’s an unrealized gain, and realizing it is contingent on willing and lucrative buyers.
Otherwise, they are stuck. Closing a sale at the market price is wonderful but parlaying that into new living conditions would certainly land you in a smaller home or a different market entirely, requiring a geographic relocation. A fixer upper is not really viable either when it seems nearly impossible to find affordable and competent service providers these days plus the high cost of all resources.
This is again more collateral damage from lockdowns and zero interest rates. The people who used stimulus payments for home purchases thought they were getting a great deal. In some ways they were, but this is mitigated by rising property taxes and the feeling of being stuck in a homeowner situation from which there is no financially rational escape.
The buying peak of 2020 is matched by the selling trough of 2026 almost as mirror images.
The housing market is distinct for being spottily illiquid. This doesn’t happen in the market for eggs, jeans, or beef. A frozen market is about plentiful supply but few willing sellers or buyers. Posted prices become illusory because they are not manifested in actual trade. They are only estimates of trades, like a high-priced product on eBay that no one buys.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/frozen-market-homes |
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03-26-26 panasonic
Vic, interesting stats, makes stronger my case that PSOE isn't
getting weaker.
I know you (same as me) wish a Gov. Change, but I'm less optimistic than you. |
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03-26-26 victor
pana, sanchez was in congress today. provided some interesting stats, of the stuff he's been up to:
only 5% of spain's oil purchases go via hormuz
only 2% of spain's nat gas purchases go via hormuz
one may hate him, but he's doing his job. |
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