04-29-26 pillz
| closed my short puts VNQ after 2 months :-) |
|
04-29-26 pillz
| closed my VLO putas after 2 days :-)) |
|
04-29-26 panasonic
|
04-29-26 spal
The environment for Baytex Energy (BTE) in late April 2026 is arguably the most favorable it has been since the company’s acquisition of Ranger Oil.
As a mid-cap producer with significant exposure to the Eagle Ford in Texas and the Duvernay/Peace River plays in Canada, Baytex is currently positioned to capture the massive "war premium" in oil prices while simultaneously benefiting from improved egress in Western Canada.
1. Macro Tailwinds: The $100+ Oil Reality
The primary driver for Baytex is the sustained high price of WTI, currently trading over $100/bbl due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the Hormuz blockade.
Cash Flow Inflection: At these price levels, Baytex is a "free cash flow machine." The company has successfully lowered its breakeven costs to roughly $45–$50/bbl. With oil at $100+, the delta is flowing directly toward debt reduction and shareholder returns.
The Eagle Ford Advantage: Roughly 60% of Baytex's production is now in the U.S. (Texas), which provides them with "premium" pricing (Light Louisiana Sweet or WTI-linked) and insulates them from the heavy-oil discounts often seen in Canadian production.
2. The "TMX" Catalyst: Narrowing Differentials
For the Canadian side of their business, the timing is perfect. The Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline is now fully operational, which has structurally changed the economics for Canadian producers.
Western Canadian Select (WCS) Stability: The additional 590,000 bpd of export capacity to the West Coast has significantly narrowed the "WCS-WTI differential." Baytex is no longer seeing its Canadian heavy oil sold at a $20–$30 discount; the spread has tightened to the mid-teens, adding millions to their bottom line.
3. Operational Performance & Valuation
Baytex’s recent stock performance reflects a market that is finally re-rating the stock from a "debt-laden junior" to a "disciplined mid-cap."
Earnings Momentum: Following their late-February reporting, the stock has trended upward, currently trading near $4.00–$4.15 (CAD). While it is up roughly 23% over the past year, it still trades at a lower valuation multiple (EV/EBITDA) than many of its peers, suggesting there is still "valuation catch-up" to be played.
Shareholder Returns: In the current high-price environment, Baytex has committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders via buybacks and dividends once they hit their net debt targets. As of April 2026, they are rapidly approaching those targets.
===
Have a position - stock currently sitting on highs. |
|
04-29-26 carib
|
04-29-26 spal
No TACOs on the menu ... only NACHOs.
Not A Chance Hormuz Opens ... |
|
04-29-26 panasonic
Earnings report after hours of several of the Mag7.
AI at center stage, do or die for pana's calls. |
|
04-29-26 spal
| CRS - Carpenter Tech ... orders are blowing out ... an increasingly higher demand market. |
|
04-28-26 carib
Crazier and crazier:
Former FBI Director James Comey has been charged in connection with a photo he posted on social media last year showing seashells arranged in a formation that officials alleged was a call for President Trump’s assassination, people familiar with the matter said. |
|
04-28-26 panasonic
"the world would need to maintain a 1 mbpd supply surplus for nearly three years"
Big value in those huge wells at this side of the pond, but where could I find such a treasure? I have the map if anyone is interested :-))) |
|
04-28-26 spal
The current consensus among energy strategists (Eurasia Group/IEA) suggests that we are looking at a multi-year normalization process.
2026 Floor: It is highly unlikely Brent drops below $80/bbl for the remainder of the year. The "risk premium" is no longer just about a war; it’s about the physical absence of a billion barrels.
The Restocking Cycle: To rebuild 1 billion barrels of inventory without crashing the global economy, the world would need to maintain a 1 mbpd supply surplus for nearly three years. Given that OPEC+ is currently fractured (with the UAE’s recent exit), that surplus is not guaranteed. |
|
04-28-26 spal
The SPR Buyback Floor: The U.S. and IEA members have been aggressively draining strategic reserves to cushion the shock (the U.S. SPR is currently hovering around 405M barrels). The moment the Strait opens, these governments shift from "Sellers" to "The World’s Biggest Buyers." This creates a hard floor for prices—likely in the $75–$85 range—for years as they attempt to restock.
Upstream "Scar Tissue": If the May 20 deadline forces Iran to shut down mature fields, they won't just "flip a switch" back to 3.5 mbpd. Reservoir pressure loss and "flow impairment" (wax/asphaltene buildup) mean that roughly 20–30% of that production may never return.
The Ton-Mile Hangover: The "Dark Fleet" and the rerouted "clean" tankers are currently scattered. It will take months to re-establish the efficient "Just-in-Time" logistics of the Persian Gulf. |
|
04-28-26 spal
| While U.S. commercial crude stocks have stayed surprisingly resilient (still around 465M barrels), the global picture is a disaster. Stocks outside the Middle East fell by over 200 million barrels in March alone. We are burning through the "global buffer" at a rate that hasn't been seen since the 1970s. |
|
04-28-26 spal
Oil "strip" prices
Daily Trend: UP. Prices are up between 3% and 5% today. The market is effectively ignoring the UAE’s move to quit OPEC—which would normally be bearish—because the physical blockade in the Persian Gulf prevents that extra oil from reaching the market anyway.
Near-Term Strip (Q2-Q3 2026): UP. The "front end" of the strip is being bid up aggressively. As the May 20 "Storage Wall" approaches, refineries are scrambling for any available waterborne barrels, keeping the pressure on the prompt prices.
Long-Term Strip (2027 and beyond): FLAT/STABLE. While the spot price is surging, the "back end" of the strip (2027) is not moving up at the same pace. This confirms that traders still view the current $110+ price as a "war premium" that will eventually deflate once a diplomatic resolution—like the Islamabad Protocol—is reached. |
|
04-28-26 spal
| The Geographic "Choke-Point": While Abu Dhabi owns the oil and the pipe, RAK and Sharjah own the dirt it sits on. If these emirates were to pursue a "separate peace" or "neutrality pact" with Tehran to avoid being targeted by the IRGC, they effectively hold the "off switch" for Abu Dhabi’s only bypass. |
|
04-28-26 spal
An interesting side issue ...
The UAE’s exit from OPEC and its pivot to a U.S. swap line is an attempt to buy financial resilience, but it doesn't solve the geographic vulnerability. If the "Storage Wall" hits on May 20 and the Islamabad Protocol fails, the pressure on the Northern Emirates to "break away" from Abu Dhabi's military policy will intensify.
The UAE is essentially a "centralized" military power trying to govern a "decentralized" economic federation during a shooting war. That is a recipe for a structural crack.
The threats from breakaway emirates are non-trivial. |
|
04-28-26 spal
| PTEN, CVE, BTE, TRMD, FANG, APA adding. Stops tight. |
|
04-28-26 carib
US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran has informed him that they are in a “state of collapse” as they figure out their leadership situation, in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday.
He added that Iran also wants the US to open the Strait of Hormuz “as soon as possible.” |
|
04-28-26 carib
| En el ámbito Penal, cargos chavistas buscan abogados en EEUU para colaborar con la Fiscalía en un clima generalizado de ‘sálvese quien pueda’. Intentan adelantarse a posibles causas contra sí mismos y sus intereses y buscan colaborar. “Tratan de salvar el pellejo”, explican fuentes conocedoras. |
|
04-28-26 panasonic
| SLV & GLD losing altitude. |
|
04-28-26 panasonic
Spal, interesting analysis, but things will mutate very fast from here, not sure we can model it.
Agree with Savo, me see a big winner here, to my deepest sadness, is China.
|
|
04-28-26 spal
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/alvopetro-announces-binding-arbitration-decision-110000847.html
Good news - may cause slight appreciation, but largely baked into price, but downside levels are certainly protected. |
|
04-28-26 panasonic
"UAE leaves OPEC"
...finally, they accept that were sleeping with the enemy.
|
|
04-28-26 spal
|
04-28-26 spal
Goldman’s "Floor" Lift: While the curve remains downward-sloping, major banks like Goldman Sachs have recently raised the back-end of the strip. They moved their Q4 Brent target from $80 to $90. This indicates that even if the blockade ends, the market expects "structural stickiness" in prices due to the damage done to global supply chains and the costs of the new "Dark Fleet" logistics.
===
The "tendency" is a volatile upward climb in the immediate present, shadowed by a skeptical downward slope for the future. The market is essentially saying: "We are in a crisis today, but we refuse to believe we will still be in this crisis by Christmas."
We'll see. |
|
04-28-26 spal
Here are some slides and a commentary from from Christina Guerrero. I know here personally. She is a private O&G consultant. She has a lot of the facts and history here on the current oil shock. She picks up speed at minute 16.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_ERM6HPWSE&t=305s |
|
04-28-26 spal
| Mercurial ... I meant mercenary, but mercurial will do. |
|
04-28-26 spal
these kind of wars can not have a winner ...
===
We may have to have a more prosaic and mercurial mode to discuss these though nonetheless as there are more coming IMHO and with much regret. But the road ahead is a bumpy one. |
|
04-28-26 savo
i agree... i did manage to catch some bonds cheaper than before the war... but what needs to be understood is that these kind of wars can not have a winner ...
or may be china is the winner...they sit and see everybody else killing themselves
|
|
04-28-26 spal
| Savo - I am with you on the philosophy of course but normally my comments are focussed on how equities move relative to the droolings, sensationalization and jibber most people speak about the "markets" ... my validation is my portfolio. |
|
04-28-26 savo
all i can say is that i hope this mess gets resolved soon ... average people are having a bad time everywhere ... inflation... massive immigration ... woke... criminality ... AI... etc... last thing people need is oil at 200 ...
it does not matter who wins or loses... Iran is an abstraction.. the US is an abstraction too... the only real thing are people..
both have lost... people have lost... |
|
04-28-26 spal
There is a lot of hype, sensation and catastrophizing at the moment ... all of which I approve of course ... that is the least a colores would do.
;) |
|
04-28-26 spal
and oil will spike to 200 a barrel....
there are two sides to a coin...
===
It won't be sustained there. The US can and will strangle its way out of this. I am playing higher oil for longer, but see it coming off at some point. I am also ready to play any more sparks and localized sensations from here.
No Iran has not won. An can not win. Sure they can mess things around a lot. I would not be that happy as a minor royal in the UAE right now for instance.
|
|
04-28-26 savo
and oil will spike to 200 a barrel....
there are two sides to a coin... |
|
04-28-26 spal
The "Storage Wall" (May 20, 2026)
Because alternative routes cannot move oil "at volume," Iran is facing a terminal storage crisis. With onshore storage (~86 million barrels) currently over half-full and maritime exports throttled to roughly 0.8 mbd (via ghost-ship "slips" and bypasses), analysts project that Iran must begin upstream production shut-ins by mid-May. If the blockade is not broken or a diplomatic breakthrough (via the "Islamabad Protocol") isn't reached by May 20, Tehran will likely have to "flip the switch" and shut down major fields, risking permanent reservoir damage estimated at 300,000 to 500,000 bpd of future capacity |
|
Board
