04-03-26 spal
Spal, it's definitely about developed countries leaders ignoring all the signals, can't be that hard to figure out what's going on :-((
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I think there is a lot of cognitive dissonance ... I am not sure they have figured it out completely yet. Is that what you are saying also? |
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04-03-26 spal
The market has completely discounted the 48-hour ceasefire as a "diplomatic feint." The focus is now entirely on Monday, April 6.
If the Refinery Blitz occurs, analysts at Energy Aspects (Amrita Sen) are projecting a "Flash Spike" toward $135/bbl for WTI. The WTI-Brent inversion is expected to widen further as the US prioritizes domestic "Energy Sovereignty" over global supply. |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Spal, it's definitely about developed countries leaders ignoring all the signals, can't be that hard to figure out what's going on :-((
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04-03-26 spal
No, Zohran Mamdani cannot run for president
===
Maybe he should run in Uganda then ...
;)) |
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04-03-26 spal
Just to be sure, is there a bigger picture here or just the Israel/Iran conflict and whatever happens is Israel's fault?
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Is that a rhetorical question?
But yes - the US is formally splitting the world.
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04-03-26 victor
pana, what do you think of gavin newsom as presidential candidate?
do you also dislike him?
would he win or lose vs vance?
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04-03-26 victor
pana, AOC can run for president, Mamdani can't.
//
thanks, i knew nothing about this guy.
No, Zohran Mamdani cannot run for president because he does not meet the U.S. Constitution's requirement of being a natural-born citizen. He was born in Uganda and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2018, which makes him ineligible for the presidency unless the Constitution is amended. |
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04-03-26 panasonic
"It will be a U.S.-managed toll road"
Just to be sure, is there a bigger picture here or just the Israel/Iran conflict and whatever happens is Israel's fault? |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Vic, two members of the same clan.
Mamdani, mentioned several times here in my posts, clan is freezing rents, raising taxes to the rich, open borders, etc.
AOC can run for president, Mamdani can't.
The problem: inequality.
The solution for the clan European socialism with no border control.
The solution for free market supporters like me (a rare specimen in extinction), build fully automated factories to replace imports, stay ahead of China.
The final outcome: UBI, so both will converge in the end.
One with our ass covered from China's ambitions and lower taxes, the other European socialist model, all production and price fixing in China.
Yes, AOC is kind of cute :-)) |
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04-03-26 spal
The "China Divorce" ... chickety China ...
;)) |
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04-03-26 spal
| The coming Carthaginian Peace for Iran .. |
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04-03-26 spal
In the terminal phase of the 2026 conflict, the status of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island represents the final "chokepoints" of both physical and economic survival for the region. Here is the breakdown of the operational reality as of April 3, 2026.
1. The Reopening: From "Managed Access" to "Mother Duck" Control
Currently, the Strait is in a state of "Managed Access." Since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, Iran has controlled the waterway through a selective toll system, allowing passage only to "Friends of Iran" (primarily Chinese and Russian-linked tankers) while using Maham-series limpet mines and Shahed swarms to block U.S.-aligned traffic.
How it will be controlled in the "Carthaginian" end-state:
The LUCAS Canopy: The U.S. is transitioning from clearing mines to maintaining a permanent "LUCAS Interceptor Net." These U.S. drones (which you correctly noted are reverse-engineered from Iranian tech) will provide 24/7 loitering coverage over the shipping lanes, intercepting any Iranian "fast-attack" craft before they leave port.
The "Mother Duck" Mandate: Post-reopening, the Strait will be controlled via Naval Escort Groups. No ship will be permitted to enter the Gulf without a U.S.-led escort. This isn't just for safety; it’s a regulatory chokepoint. To get an escort, a vessel must comply with the Maritime Action Plan (MAP), effectively giving the U.S. veto power over who can trade in the region.
2. Kharg Island: The "Hostage Hub"
The status of Kharg Island is exactly as you suspect: it has been militarily neutralized but economically preserved.
The March 13 Strikes: During the mid-March blitz, U.S. forces successfully destroyed 100% of the military infrastructure, air defenses, and IRGC-ASF command centers on the island.
The "Oil Hostage": As President Trump noted following the strikes, the oil loading terminals were intentionally spared. Kharg remains the primary exit point for 90% of Iran's crude. By destroying the defenses but leaving the "pumps" intact, the U.S. has turned Kharg into a hostage. If Iran attempts a "Samson Option" strike on GCC desalination plants, the U.S. will erase the remaining oil infrastructure in a single afternoon, permanently ending the Iranian state's revenue.
3. Implications for China and Asia
For China, the "Carthaginian Peace" is a geopolitical disaster. Since the Hormuz Stall began, China has been the only major power receiving "discounted" Iranian oil through the managed access system.
The "China Divorce": Under the new U.S. control of the Strait, China’s "managed access" disappears. To receive oil, Chinese tankers will have to join the "Mother Duck" convoys, which will likely require them to pay the $0.25/kg MAP fee—effectively a U.S. tax on Chinese energy.
The Energy "Super-Spike" in Asia: Japan, South Korea, and India are currently seeing Brent-WTI inversions and historic shipping premiums. The "reopening" of the Strait will bring relief, but it will come with the "Security-for-Exclusivity" bill. Asia will no longer be able to buy "neutral" oil; they will have to buy "aligned" oil.
Strategic Stranding: China’s massive investments in the Gwadar (Pakistan) pipeline and Iranian infrastructure are being rendered "stranded assets" by the U.S. drone canopy. Beijing is realizing that a "Blue Water Navy" is useless if they don't control the autonomous drone airspace over the chokepoints.
The Bottom Line: The Strait won't be "free" in the 1990s sense of the word. It will be a U.S.-managed toll road. Kharg Island will function as a "tethered" energy source that only pumps when the U.S. allows it. For Asia, the era of cheap, unaligned Middle Eastern energy is over. |
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04-03-26 victor
pana, i mean...
you never mention a bearded dude like mandani who, in my op, has a higher % to make into the white house than aoc.
instead, you keep mentioning aoc, whom i consider to be cute and harmless.
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04-03-26 victor
pana, quite interesting that you keep mentioning aoc.. again and again and again.
are you sure that you don't have a secret crush on her? :-))
i mean, she's cute, i like her.
AOC DANCING IN PUERTO RICAN PARADE
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7O_CEJyVF7A |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Vic, Savo ... from my own experience, iranians will eat from garbage bins before China folds on their control project.
So easy ...engage with Grossi and stop the war, but no! China is all in, and Trump is all in.
The winner? AOC. |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Savo, my 2 cents, gold outperforms other assets on the long haul, the right approach would be to load your excess of fiat money in gold.
Holding bonds is heresy :-)) |
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04-03-26 savo
victor... so iran is a murderous regime... we knew that...
the problem is the other side is even more murderous.
Didn't DT say... we will bring them back to the stone age?
who is them? iranian civilians?... hospitals?.. schools? (they have a special attraction with girl schools) |
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04-03-26 savo
pana.. i am always happy to buy good bonds at lower prices and a better current yield... but in the case of precious metals i prefer to see them going up and not get entangled between investors, algos and Comex tricks, irrespective of buying them at higher prices.
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04-02-26 carib
The IDF said Thursday it eliminated Makram Atimi, commander of a central Iranian ballistic missile unit, in a precise airstrike in the Kermanshah area.
The military said Atimi was responsible for dozens of missile launches toward Israel.
In a separate strike, the military said it also killed several battalion commanders from the same unit, which it said was behind repeated launches from northwestern Iran. |
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04-02-26 panasonic
| Savo, why? aren't you happy to buy a discount? |
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04-02-26 victor
savo, "according to the Iran Human Rights Society"
could always check another source. this is from 2025 though, but it's amnesty intl.
//
Sep 10, 2025
Thousands of people in Iran face the risk of execution amid what Amnesty International on Wednesday called a deepening execution crisis, with death sentences handed down after unfair trials and on vaguely worded charges such as enmity against God and corruption on earth.
The rights group said more than 800 people had been executed in 2025 so far, nearly double the pace of last year, and warned that thousands more remain under investigation or prosecution on capital charges, including drug-related offences and accusations of espionage.
etc
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04-02-26 savo
do not upset brother Savo
brother Savo gets very upset when algos sell precious metals...
question .. will they go sold to a long weekend where TACO can do more somersaults than ilia malinin..? |
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04-02-26 savo
victor...
The Islamic Republic of Iran is on track to exceed the record number of executions it carried out against opponents in 2025
how do we know this is true and not another "iran is two weeks away from an atomic bomb".. as it has been two weeks away since 1980?
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04-02-26 spal
The Triangulated Truth (OSINT & Congressional Leakage)
Deep-dive analysis of the DOJ Tracker and House Oversight documents reveal the "kinetic" reasons for her ouster were more tactical:
Failure of "Retribution" Lawfare: Bondi’s most significant internal failure was her inability to secure grand jury indictments against Trump’s primary adversaries (Letitia James, James Comey, and John Brennan). OSINT records from March 2026 show that Miami and D.C. federal prosecutors repeatedly flagged these cases as "insufficient," leading to "feisty" internal confrontations. Trump viewed her inability to "bend" the career prosecutors as a lack of strength.
The Surveillance Scandal: In February 2026, a major scandal broke (the "Jayapal Search History" incident) where it was discovered the DOJ was tracking the search histories of Members of Congress who were reviewing unredacted Epstein files at a DOJ annex. This "flagrant assault on oversight" created a rare bipartisan consensus in Congress to remove her, making her a political liability for the President.
The "Blanche" Pre-emption: OSINT reveals that Deputy AG Todd Blanche had already begun taking over major press announcements and the "Epstein portfolio" as early as January 30, 2026. This suggests Bondi had been "functionally fired" months prior, with the April 2nd announcement merely being the formal execution.
The "Epstein Stalemate": Far from "mishandling" the files, OSINT suggest Bondi was caught in an impossible stalemate. She was reportedly attempting to protect certain names (to maintain leverage) while teasing others (to satisfy the base). The result was a "clunky" review process—limiting Congress to four computers in a satellite office—that ultimately satisfied no one and led to her downfall. |
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04-02-26 victor
President Donald Trump has ousted Pam Bondi as attorney general, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.
She will be replaced for now by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, the source said. |
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04-02-26 victor
President Donald Trump has reportedly already fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke with Fox News Digital.
Bondi met with Trump in the Oval Office on Wednesday night ahead of his speech to the nation on the war in Iran where was reportedly informed of her ouster, according to two sources familiar with the meeting.
One of those sources said that by the time Trump took his place behind the podium for the address, Bondi had already lost her job and was on her way back to Florida. |
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04-02-26 panasonic
Vic, very pessimistic, bcz people "think" it is about Israel and Iran and Gulf States.
What is really at stake? Chinese total control of global supply chain on everything, a multi-decades project, and most people that I know are distracted with tdy's events and can't go bit deeper and look who is behind the huge military power that was built in that strategical place.
So how can I be optimistic?
We are smart people here, we know how price fixing works once only one supplier is left. |
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04-02-26 victor
| pana, i see you are seriously pessimistic.. and all because of iran? |
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04-02-26 panasonic
Vic, DT of course is gone, his period is over.
Republicans won't win for a very long time, and center democrats are busy building 3rd bathrooms, so yes, as we discussed already free markets are history, and Chinese supremacy is a fact.
Relevant to us? not really, but yes to kids and grandkids, they will have to figure out how to navigate that, China will have the privilege to put the price tag on everything we consume, that si how it works...o peleas o pones la otra mejilla. |
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04-02-26 spal
Brent - WTI inversion is not driven by differences in crude quality. It is a direct market verdict on geographic risk isolation amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
The Three Verified Drivers
🔹 Maritime Risk and Insurance Shock
Yesterday’s missile strike on the Aqua 1 tanker (chartered by QatarEnergy) north of Ras Laffan, Qatar, has further elevated war-risk insurance premiums for Gulf shipments. Brent-priced barrels, largely seaborne and exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, now carry a steep “security premium.” WTI, sourced from U.S. basins (Permian, Bakken) and moved primarily by pipeline and domestic logistics, remains physically insulated.
🔹 Hormuz Disruption Dynamics
With roughly 20% of global oil transiting the strait, sustained kinetic activity and attacks have rerouted cargoes, increased transit times, and driven up delivered costs for international benchmarks. U.S. domestic supply is largely exempt from these frictions.
🔹 Policy and Market Signaling from the April 1 Address
President Trump’s national address reiterated continued operations against Iran for the next 2–3 weeks and called on allies to help secure the strait, with April 6 emerging as a critical reference point for compliance or escalation. Markets are pricing in prolonged uncertainty for globally traded crude while treating North American barrels as the stable, “land-safe” alternative. |
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04-02-26 victor
The Islamic Republic of Iran is on track to exceed the record number of executions it carried out against opponents in 2025, with 657 executions in the first three months of the year, according to the Iran Human Rights Society.
Hiding behind the war with the U.S. and Israel, critics say the regime appears desperate to eliminate opposition, particularly following anti-regime demonstrations that shook the nation's rulers and resulted in tens of thousands being murdered by the country's security forces and militias. |
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04-02-26 victor
pana, yes, i know. but what happens after 3 years? dt is gone??
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04-02-26 spal
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
He got that right. |
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04-02-26 spal
| Drones Target Rosneft Oil Refineries in Russia’s Bashkortostan |
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04-02-26 spal
| Yes ... from a family perspective it is worth considering. Paraguay is likely a good pick. Probably adjacent to Mennonites there ... |
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04-02-26 spal
NAT
NORDIC AMERICAN TANK
6.04 (+5.50%)
The controlling family was a heavy buyer when the Strait closure was first established.
Will probably add more.
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04-02-26 panasonic
Spal, true...we need a farm already in full production.
Meanwhile I'm long $GUSH |
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04-02-26 spal
LIGHTWAVE LOGIC INC
I see speculative interest on this one ... stumbled onto it ... but we do what we can, we do what we must ... |
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04-02-26 spal
a colores "Finca" with vegetables and cows could be a good idea.
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100%
Guarded and surveilled by drones.
But old colores many need a haven and may need to leave certain countries in a hurry. These days I don't rule anything out. |
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04-02-26 spal
LWLG
LIGHTWAVE LOGIC INC
7.45 (+8.92%)
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04-02-26 panasonic
| Vic, I'm a day trader, volatility is my friend. |
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04-02-26 panasonic
"Paraguayan Plan B"
a colores "Finca" with vegetables and cows could be a good idea.
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04-02-26 spal
Don't buy the commodity ... buy the tool.
Picks and shovels in a mining boom ... we know the pattern. |
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04-02-26 spal
| Tankers rising ... trade routes extending ... premiums up ... oil longer and further on water. |
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04-02-26 spal
| BREAKING US embassy in Baghdad warns pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq may attack the city in the coming one or two days |
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04-02-26 spal
| Currently Helium prices have spiked over 100% due to blockages in Qatar. |
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04-02-26 spal
Also gently buying:
PSRHF
PULSAR HELIUM INC
A pre-producer. It is currently in the late appraisal and testing phase of the mining lifecycle however the company is at a critical "inflection point" where it is transitioning from an explorer to a developer. But it is "pre-production" with a fully appraised, high-grade (8.1%) asset located in the only safe-haven jurisdiction left for the high-tech supply chain ... Minnesotta.
The Minnesota Helium Act (officially evolving through the 2024 foundational law and the 2026 Legislative Session) is the regulatory "Green Light" designed to transform Minnesota from a mining state into a global high-tech energy hub. Currently pending.
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04-02-26 spal
LWLG
LIGHTWAVE LOGIC INC
I have been adding. Good one to watch I think. This is a tech co that has managed to climb, even today.
Lightwave Logic (LWLG) develops proprietary electro-optic (EO) polymers, branded as Perkinamine®, which function as the "engines" for next-generation optical modulators. These molecules convert electrical signals into light at ultra-high speeds (800Gbps to 3.2Tbps) with significantly lower voltage requirements than traditional silicon or lithium niobate ... blah, blah ... essentially replacing copper interconnects for AI. |
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04-02-26 victor
pana, 3 more years to "party hard" for me, 3 more years to "endure" for others
??? |
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04-02-26 spal
| Plus the Paraguayan Plan B |
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04-02-26 panasonic
"where there is chaos you will always find colores ..."
our oasis in the desert
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04-02-26 spal
Still at deep discount when you price it vs real assets like gold ;-)
====
Panas ... do not upset brother Savo ...
:)) |
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04-02-26 spal
| Panas ... where there is chaos you will always find colores ... |
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04-02-26 panasonic
"hearing that physical naphta and jet ... at 200/bl"
Still at deep discount when you price it vs real assets like gold ;-)
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04-02-26 panasonic
| FWIW panic is my friend, 3 more years to "party hard" for me, 3 more years to "endure" for others. |
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04-02-26 savo
hearing that physical naphta and jet ... at 200/bl
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04-02-26 spal
| Amateur ... my guess is a demand shock as people switch sourcing patterns in a panic. |
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04-02-26 amateur
| WTI higher than Brent now¿.?? |
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04-02-26 spal
| Spaldo - what a friend, he did not pass in vain and continues to inspire others today. |
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04-02-26 leopardo
| It will get worse before it gets better. |
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04-02-26 panasonic
| Markets back to red ahead of a long weekend . |
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04-02-26 panasonic
Spain doing the right thing with venezolanos:
https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-04-01/spain-to-end-fast-track-path-to-legal-status-that-venezuelans-have-enjoyed-since-2018.html |
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04-02-26 panasonic
| Spaldo, meaning of life is not static, and with tech you wont find many willing to give their life to serve other's cause. |
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04-02-26 spaldo
| My friend passed in December 2024. |
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04-02-26 spaldo
Mar 10, 2023
Dear Peter,
Imagine being in a typhoon next to Korea. We know another navy ship near where we are was captured, all aboard imprisoned, tortured, and killed. Our old ship is leaking. Water is in the fuel. The engines are stopped. My assigned life raft was torn off the ship during the storm. No other US Navy ships are near to save us. As the ship rolls again in the typhoon, I convince another younger officer, since the ship is on its side, to walk on the wall as it rolls to be below us. We laugh.
Eventually, another fuel tank is found to not be leaked. They restart the engines. We go to our navy base. The ship to sent to the scrap yard.
Appreciate all you have done and doing with your family. We will deal with what happens and do our best to continue.
James S. Dielschneider |
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04-02-26 spal
It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner.
Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian(1985) |
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04-02-26 savo
| the one trying to sink the world economy is the US...the aggressor |
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04-02-26 spal
| IRGC Narrative: In the last 90 minutes, Iranian state media has begun referring to the Strait as the "Sovereign Collection Zone." This confirms our earlier analysis: Iran is no longer trying to "sink" the world economy. |
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04-02-26 carib
The United States is doubling the number of A-10 attack planes it has in the Middle East, according to a New York Times report on Wednesday.
According to the report, the US Air Force is moving 18 A-10s to join the dozen or so already present in the region. |
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04-02-26 carib
| Except for the fact I doubt the US has the world largest oil reserves.. a good speech, for once, IMHO. |
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04-02-26 carib
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04-02-26 spal
Going to bomb them into the Stone Age if the April 6 plan is not agreed. As necessary will take out the oil and gas industry.
Brent heart attack |
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04-02-26 spal
to endure??
i am not enduring anything. are you??
===
Vic I amn with you on this sentiment. Unless you are actually fighting or facing down bombs then really you need to be circumspect and not whine. |
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04-02-26 victor
savo, my portfolio lost value... and my electricity and gas bills shot up
//
i don't think you are being objective |
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04-02-26 spal
| Trump talking live ... Brent climbing |
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04-02-26 savo
| and i have a problem with Hegseth bombing a girls school in iran and killing 150 people |
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04-02-26 savo
yes victor... my portfolio lost value... and my electricity and gas bills shot up
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04-02-26 victor
savo, we still have to endure 2 more years of this mess
//
to endure??
i am not enduring anything. are you??
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04-02-26 Merlino
US lifts sanctions on #Venezuela's interim president
DELCY 2030
.............................
...and Rubio has not posted anything about MCM meeting him a couple days ago... |
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