03-30-26 spaldo
Wolfgang Munchau:
The German “economic reform” debate is not about reforms at all. It is about tax increases. Abolishing the married couples tax allowance is a tax rise. Structural reforms would be: phasing out of pay-as-you-go pensions; ending wasteful industrial subsidiaries to clapped-out industries; stop wasting defence spending on old-tech from Rheinmetall; reform of the welfare system. The Merz government is clearly not interested in reforms. But more worryingly, nobody else seems to be either.
https://x.com/eurobriefing/status/2038515662406967796?s=46 |
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03-30-26 victor
pana, so you think it all hinges on iran?
i see, tks. |
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03-30-26 carib
| Pill: first time here with new Mayor... |
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03-30-26 carib
Just days after unveiling plans to raise $42 billion to bolster its purchases of Bitcoin, Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. took a pause after 13 consecutive announced weekly acquisitions of the cryptocurrency.
What Saylor - the co-founder and chairman of the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin - announces each Monday has become somewhat of a barometer of sentiment for the digital asset market. No purchases were made in the seven days ended March 29, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing today.
(bloomberg) |
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03-30-26 pillz
Defense sources: Trump Hormuz, nuke decisions determine war's end, Israel giving US intel on Strait
Defense sources were not convinced that Iran would accept a deal to end the war in the coming week, and if they don't, Trump would decide how to address the crisis in the Strait.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-891707 |
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03-30-26 pillz
In NYC right now.
Things look pretty normal..
//
where is it not normal ? in ME ? |
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03-30-26 carib
In NYC right now.
Things look pretty normal.. |
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03-30-26 panasonic
| Vic, if Trump is defeated in Iran we are looking at Democrats in Gov. for at least next 12 years, and from the AOC wing tjat is what is left. |
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03-30-26 victor
pt, what do you think of merz?
at least he's trying to get something done.
//
Alemania acuerda con Siria devolverle al menos 800.000 refugiados que huyeron de la guerra
Merz recibe en Berlín al presidente Al Sharaa, un antiguo yihadista que sigue legitimándose como líder internacional
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03-30-26 pillz
Hormuz still closed but Brent stopped rising...
//
the best of the day, why is it stopped rising is the question ??? |
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03-30-26 victor
pana, .I'm more pessimistic in the political front.
//
could you elaborate WHY you are so pessimistic?
i don't get why. |
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03-30-26 amateur
| Hormuz still closed but Brent stopped rising... |
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03-30-26 panasonic
"breaks the Iranian economy"
Imho already on "life support" provided by China, probably till a political change happens in US, may take one year or three, not a problem. |
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03-30-26 spal
The Completion Segment: Since the 2023 NexTier merger, PTEN controls nearly 20% of the North American completions market. As operators focus on capital efficiency, they are increasingly spending on workovers and well-servicing to maintain production without the cost of a new rig.
The WTI Shield: Because PTEN operates primarily in the Lower 48, its customers are shielded by the WTI-Brent spread. PTEN’s high-tier super-spec rigs and frac fleets remain in high demand. |
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03-30-26 spal
| PULSAR HELIUM INC. (PSRHF) ... bought a tracking position |
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03-30-26 spal
| Have been adding PTEN as work-over levels on US oil fields has got to increase. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Bought a little more UAN ... US Fertilizer (made from US Natural Gas) ... is not constrained by the current major squeeze on sulfur. Distributes a lot of cash. |
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03-30-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
... Brazil gas play ... small cap (I have mentioned this). Their gas pricing mechanism is linked to Brent and so the reset for sales post April 30 will be substantial. |
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03-30-26 spal
| MU ... Micron ... folks taking a bunch of money off the memory chip trade. So far this was an expected risk off move, but if it keeps moving down like this it is a leading indicator of the AI trade ... |
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03-30-26 spal
| The Inflationary Window: Every month this conflict remains "unsettled" provides the necessary window for global energy inflation to erode the real value of the $35 trillion U.S. debt. A sudden peace would trigger a deflationary shock that would halt the "Debt Shredder" prematurely. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Iranian Domestic Threshold: Tehran is betting that the "Energy Shock" will break the resolve of U.S. allies (Australia/EU) before the U.S. blockade breaks the Iranian economy. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Satellite imagery from the last 24 hours confirms CENTCOM is repositioning two additional Carrier Strike Groups and an Amphibious Ready Group toward the Northern Arabian Sea. This contradicts the "deal is close" narrative, suggesting a preparation for a protracted blockade rather than a reopening. |
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03-30-26 spal
As of March 30, 2026, OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) signals and diplomatic cables indicate a state of Active Divergence masked by Diplomatic Theater. The headlines suggest "proximity to a deal," but the underlying structural demands reveal a stalemate designed to persist. |
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03-30-26 spal
PULSAR HELIUM INC. (PSRHF)
1.5800
+0.3400
(+27.42%)
Well I guess I won't be chasing this one ... on watch
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03-30-26 spal
“Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched,’” Trump posted Monday on his social media platform.
... No surprises here. |
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03-30-26 ruspan
| Iran's parliament is seriously considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), said Alaoddin Boroujerdi, a member of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Now I don't personally approve of any of this ... but that does not affect my analysis of it. |
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03-30-26 spal
You know why the health care system is a HUGE success in the US ... paradoxically ... because it is a HUGE part of GDP. Being a sick fat fuck pays as does dying earlier.
Again I do not make the rules. But this just how it works. |
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03-30-26 spal
Savo you will particularly love this statement ... I dedicate it to you ...
Because the machines are so productive, the main challenge isn’t "full employment" anymore ... it’s "full consumption.
;)) |
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03-30-26 spal
US Fed likely to cut rates 25 bps in both September and December, says Nomura
And Schpal. |
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03-30-26 spal
Labor’s contribution has dropped by 12.4 percentage points since 1960 - a shrinking marginal human cost.
GDP has decoupled from Job Growth ... "Jobless Expansion" is the baseline.
As AGI ) transitions from "generative" to "agentic" in 2026, economists project that growth will be driven by Capital-Deepening (investing in compute/energy) rather than Labor-Extending (hiring people).
I don't make the rules Savo ...
The economy is again like all economies from Rome to now ... a "monkey pump" and a happy rich class and a lot of noise.
"Shadow Basic Common Income" (BCI)
The U.S. has already built a massive, fragmented BCI system through Transfer Payments. It is not called UBI obviously, but the math says otherwise.
In 2025, federal current transfer payments to persons reached $3.63 trillion.
This is roughly 15–18% of all personal income in the U.S.
Do you get it now???
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (2025) effectively "shadow-formalized" this by creating permanent, non-taxable liquidity buffers:
No Tax on Tips/Overtime: This allows the bottom 40% of the workforce to retain a larger share of "consumption tokens" without raising the corporate cost of labor.
"consumption tokens" ... but again we don't say this out load.
The IRS is currently issuing record refund and up to $1,000 extra per household in 2026, acting as a massive liquidity injection to sustain domestic demand.
Which is mostly spent on cheeze whizz and thing like that ...
So no the economy is NOT going to collapse. It is rigged that way.
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03-30-26 spal
| Most jobs in the western developed world are BULLSHIT ... so don't get hung up there ... it has been a government/corporate program to keep most of the fuckers you see around you busy and not cutting each others throats. That is how it always is. |
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03-30-26 spal
The goods and services deficit is falling, not increasing. By producing its own essentials—Energy via Shale/LNG, Food via the Midwest, and High-Tech/AI via the OBBBA capex surge—the U.S. has effectively walled off its domestic economy from global volatility.
Since these critical inputs are not imported, the U.S. is not "importing" the world's inflation. Instead, it is exporting it
Jobs have nothing to do with economic growth these days. Zero. We can discuss what this means. But it has nothing to do with growth of GDP ... nothing. And sure the cost of the government can go up ... spending into the economy and surprise to you is that is what you would expect with universal common income etc. Which already exists if you think about it carefully.
But you have been going on about the US decline for so long it is a reflex and that is fine, I perfectly understand.
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03-30-26 savo
spal.. i do not know who writes all that for you... but it got it backwards... the US has a trade deficit... hence.. as inflation in the rest of the world speeds up the US will import inflation...
the big beautiful bill should be rebranded the big ugly bill... in 2024 the us created 2.4 mm jobs ... in 2025 it created 150k jobs... gdp grew on Q4 25 0.7%... the lowest since covid...
while the dollar revalue 3% against the euro...yields on 10 year US treasuries went from 3.95% at the beginning of the war to 4.4% today...
Regarding the fiscal deficit.. as inflation goes up revenues will go up or will go down in real terms... depending on economic activity.. given the us is in stanflation... my bet is that they will go down in real terms... but the cost of government will go up in real terms because of a) cost of debt b) because of the war and c) because of entitlements and social security...
more deficit in real terms means more debt and more cost of debt.
from wherever you want to look at it the US in deep shit. |
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03-30-26 panasonic
| Amateur, ok tks..I'm more pessimistic in the political front. |
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03-30-26 spal
The OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) accelerates 2026 growth through supply-side deregulation and targeted consumer liquidity. By fast-tracking energy infrastructure via "NEPA Opt-In" fees and slashing royalties to 12.5%, the bill triggers an immediate capex surge in the Permian and Gulf. Simultaneously, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime provides a "disposable income buffer," sustaining domestic consumption.
Domestic inflation is contained via the "WTI Shield." While the U.S. exports refined products at high "War Risk" premiums it maintains a lower price floor for domestic industry.
This WTI-Brent spread ensures U.S. manufacturing costs remain decoupled from global spikes. Furthermore, the Safe Haven effect—capital flooding into the USD—increases the dollar’s purchasing power for non-energy imports, effectively "importing" deflation from rivals whose currencies are collapsing under energy costs. |
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03-30-26 spal
If the deficit is 6% but nominal GDP grows at 8%—driven by the global inflation exported —the real debt burden shrinks.
The U.S. doesn't "import" energy inflation; it exports it. As a net energy exporter, high global prices are a windfall for the US trade balance. U.S. industry utilizes the cheap domestic floor (WTI), while rivals are forced to pay the "War Risk" marked up (Brent).
Tax receipts are nominal. As prices rise, federal revenue surges, offsetting indexed spending. Supported by Shadow Revenue from new maritime fees, the U.S. effectively taxes global trade to fund interest payments while the principal devalues.
The higher Brent prices abroad at absorbed in the profit margins of competitors as they have to keep volumes spinning or employment crashes. |
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03-30-26 amateur
"political outcome for Republicans if can't finish the job"
It should be bad for them, at least in the inflation front.
The long term consequences of a US international blunder might not be perceived domestically, DT would try to sell a Truman Show and the rednecks could buy it. Or not.
Manipulation of masses is a science that escapes me totally.
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03-30-26 savo
i do not think that math works...
because
1) due to the megafiscal deficit US federal debt grows faster inflation...
and
2) energy inflation will inflate import export prices hence the US will import inflation which will translate too into higher government spending.
#deathbyinflationordeathbyfinancialcrisis
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03-30-26 spal
By allowing (or encouraging) the systematic destruction of Russian refining capacity, the U.S. removes millions of barrels of "cheap" diesel and gasoline from the global market.
Result: The global price of energy (Brent) stays high. This forces every country that must import energy to print more of their own currency or spend more of their USD reserves just to keep the lights on. This is forced global inflation.
The U.S. Navy no longer provides "free" security for the global commons. In the Persian Gulf, we have moved to a "Pay-to-Play" model.
Result: If you aren't a preferred U.S. partner, your insurance rates and shipping costs skyrocket. This "Security Premium" is another form of inflation that the U.S. imposes.
By creating global energy inflation, the nominal price of everything rises.
If the U.S. GDP grows from $28 trillion to $40 trillion simply because "everything costs more," the denominator gets huge.
The Numerator (Debt): The $35 trillion debt doesn't grow just because oil is expensive. It is a fixed, legacy contract.
The Result: The Debt-to-GDP ratio drops from 120% to 80% without the U.S. ever having to cut spending or raise taxes.
The U.S. is "taxing" the rest of the world’s energy consumption to pay for its own historical overspending.
As an energy-independent nation with a "Global Navy" bouncer, the U.S. can afford $115 oil because it owns the gas station.
Everyone else is just a customer paying a war-time markup to help the U.S. balance its books.
It is a competitive reset where the U.S. pays back its creditors with "garbage" dollars that have been devalued by the very energy crisis the U.S. is managing. |
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03-30-26 spal
Trump in two places at one ... The world's only Quantum Negotiator.
TRUMP: HOLDING DIRECT AND INDIRECT TALKS WITH IRAN |
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03-30-26 spal
The Trump Uncertainty Principle in action:
TRUMP: BELIEVE WE WILL STRIKE A DEAL WITH THEM FAIRLY SOON || POSSIBLE WE MAY NOT REACH AGREEMENT |
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03-30-26 pillz
TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL MAKE A DEAL WITH THEM
TRUMP ON IRAN: THINK WE HAD REGIME CHANGE
And this: DEALING WITH DIFFERENT PEOPLE IN IRAN’S THIRD REGIME |
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03-29-26 spal
| Of course it will spike higher ... but that is volatility folks. |
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03-29-26 spal
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03-29-26 spal
The "Double Squeeze" of 2026
We are witnessing a rare alignment where the world’s two largest "relief valves" have failed simultaneously.
The Baltic Squeeze: Ukraine’s "Leningrad Campaign" has shut down the North.
The Hormuz Squeeze: The US-Iran conflict has throttled the South.
The Math: With 20 million bpd loitering in the Gulf and 2 million bpd physically destroyed in the Baltic, the global "buffer" is zero. Even if the Iran war ended tomorrow, the Russian infrastructure is still charred metal. This creates a structural deficit that keeps prices elevated even during demand lulls. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Diesel crack spreads will likely hit record highs. |
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03-29-26 spal
While the Iran war involves a larger volume of crude, the Ukrainian strikes are having a more acute proportional impact on global refined product markets (diesel and gasoline).
The Volume Gap: The Strait of Hormuz closure has taken roughly 15–20 million bpd of "physical flow" offline or into "loitering" status. Ukraine's strikes have halted roughly 2 million bpd (40% of Russia’s western seaborne exports).
The Scarcity Multiplier: The impact of the Ukraine strikes is "greater" in the sense that they are hitting refined products. With Middle East refineries (like Ruwais and Bapco) already under threat or operating at reduced capacity due to the "tit-for-tat" strikes you noted, the loss of Russian diesel and gasoline processing is creating a global refined product deficit that crude reserves (like the IEA's 400M barrel release) cannot easily fix.
The Narrative Shift: The Iran war was priced in as a "geopolitical risk." The Ukraine strikes are being priced in as a "permanent structural loss" of infrastructure that cannot be repaired quickly due to sanctions on Western refinery components. |
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03-29-26 spal
This is what peak cycle financing looks like.
===
Yes. The parallels with the 1920's are now glaring at us. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Amateur, just to wrap up, how do you see the political outcome for Republicans if can't finish the job? |
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03-29-26 victor
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03-29-26 amateur
I agree China hegemony is the outcome if the US cannot "finish the job".
I dont know enough to make a judgement about their chances. But I am pessimistic. Not because DT is personally disgusting. Because he is a bad strategist.
I fear Israel may have gone a bridge too soon. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Amateur, same as me wrote, logistics is everything when you force entry in a crystal shop, now China has the upper hand if USA can't finish de job, or what alternative scenario in your opinion? |
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03-29-26 amateur
"the conceit of our expertise shows no limits or borders" 😆
Indeed.
Even if our expertise had any limits, which of course it doesnt, the Iran episode seems a lot more significant for all of us than a decades old default by a smallish debtor...
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03-29-26 amateur
Why would European alignment with Israel make a defining difference in the annihilation of Iran's military power?
If it did, why was it not sought in advance?
Could they assume European forced participation while in Ukraine, that is an existential threat for Europe, the US is withholding support and DT even often courting Putin. (I just leave aside the threats of annexation of Greenland and Canada...)
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03-29-26 savo
Circular deals...
In 45 years on Wall Street, I've never seen anything like this.
Sam Altman just convinced 3 of the world's smartest investors to fund his losses.
$110 billion. But ZERO profit in sight.
The largest private funding round in history.
Let me explain why this is borderline criminal & what you have to understand as an investor:
Amazon. Nvidia. SoftBank.
3 of the world's most sophisticated investors just handed OpenAI $110 billion at an $840 billion valuation.
That's more than double the $40 billion OpenAI raised last year.
For context: all US venture capital combined invested $170 billion into American startups in all of 2023.
Altman just raised 65% of that. Alone. In one round.
And the company STILL isn't profitable.
Let's look at the actual numbers:
OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026. $35 billion in 2027. $47 billion in 2028.
Cumulative losses before any projected path to profitability: over $115 billion.
Meanwhile, Amazon's $50 billion comes with strings attached. $35 billion is contingent on OpenAI either achieving AGI or completing its IPO by year end.
Read that again.
$35 billion is conditioned on ACHIEVING AGI.
They're literally writing checks against a scientific breakthrough that may not happen on any predictable timeline.
This is what peak cycle financing looks like.
The circular logic every investor should understand:
Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI.
OpenAI commits to spending $100 billion on Amazon Web Services.
Nvidia invests $30 billion.
OpenAI commits to buying 3 gigawatts of Nvidia compute.
These aren't arms-length investments. They're vendor financing dressed up as venture capital.
Amazon and Nvidia are essentially paying OpenAI to buy their own products.
The $840 billion valuation prices in a future that doesn't exist yet.
At $13 billion in 2025 revenue, that's 65x revenue.
Even in 2021 - the most speculative bubble in recent tech history - Snowflake peaked at 50-80x revenue.
And Snowflake was actually profitable.
J.P. Morgan calculates that the AI industry needs $650 billion in annual revenue just to generate a 10% return on total infrastructure buildout.
The entire industry currently generates a fraction of that.
I've seen cycles my entire 45-year career.
The 1980s defense build-up. The dot-com bubble. The 2008 mortgage machine.
The pattern is always the same:
When the biggest players start financing each other's growth through circular investment structures, you're not witnessing a revolution...
You're watching the LAST PHASE of a credit cycle.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said OpenAI is going to be "one of the very big winners long term."
Maybe.
But $840 billion assumes they've already won.
Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.
And right now, OpenAI's earnings are deeply, structurally, massively negative.
The IPO is coming. The hype will peak. And the question every serious investor needs to answer is simple:
At what price does this actually make sense?
Sam Altman doesn’t know either - he just keeps raising money faster than he can burn it.
This can’t end well.
https://substack.com/@georgenoble/note/c-220684623
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03-29-26 spal
for years colores was the veni board.
now it's the iran/middle east board.
:-))
===
Victor - the conceit of our expertise shows no limits or borders. That is a well known colores's trait. Just ask my wife. |
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03-29-26 victor
:-))
Maduro propone “perdón y diálogo” en Venezuela
CNN Español —
El derrocado presidente de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, divulgó este domingo una carta con un llamado a la paz en el país sudamericano y con citas religiosas por el Domingo de Ramos, un día después de publicar su primer mensaje desde que fue capturado en enero en un operativo estadounidense en Caracas.
“Que Venezuela sea casa de oración, casa de respeto, casa de encuentro. Que limpiemos el corazón del odio, de la división y del egoísmo, y abramos paso al perdón, a la reconciliación y a la paz”, dijo Maduro en una carta firmada junto a su esposa, Cilia Flores, también detenida en Nueva York, y publicada en la cuenta del diputado Nicolás Maduro Guerra, hijo del líder chavista.
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03-29-26 victor
for years colores was the veni board.
now it's the iran/middle east board.
:-)) |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Spal,no need of diplomacy between us :-))
I measure under my tape naturally, the one me considers most important is where does general population live better.
Of course each one of us measures differently, part of colores life. |
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03-29-26 spal
100 % agree.
===
Ruspan - it is a joke that many will not state this. Although that joke leads to tragedy.
It is an obscenity to say that somehow the Israelis see the Arabs in the GCC as their partners and equals. I do not believe this at all.
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03-29-26 spal
| A polarized world seen more clearly Panas as you say when the "masks come off". |
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03-29-26 spal
Dems win and this is check mate, China becomes the new world leader.
=====
There is no real check mate though. This can not be in an era of nuclear weapons. The Iranians know that this is actually the essentially balancing item.
Assume China is dominant - how can that be so if Russia or the United States or even Israel could wipe out Beijing?
If the world order can be completely undone by a nuclear strike then that fact contains and restrains the "order" and the hegemon.
As such this diminishes universal and unilateral power projection.
Thus the rise of middle powers and warfare that focusses on asymetric power projection and resource choke points.
This is the future.
A polarized world.
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03-29-26 ruspan
Spal:"Let's state it clearly now shall we.
Israel see Iran as the only legitimate contender for their plan to dominate the Middle East hence this campaign.
This is their entire motivation."
100 % agree.
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03-29-26 spal
How do we think that reducing the civilian infrastructure of Iran to rubble is a noble cause?
Because we are scared that they can't be grown ups with nuclear weapons?
I don't buy it. North Korea as my witness. |
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03-29-26 spal
| In saying this I do not deny that many Americans are horrible, vicious people also ... actually I do not deny that ... but the world as it is is really running out of ways to dress up these battles as "noble causes". |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Amateur, this is my very personal view:
If world leaders can't overcome their feelings for DT and focus on the bigger picture, the only one left that can solve the conflict is China.
The deal? China manages and controls Hormuz, and oil flow from ME.
DT and Republicans are punished on next elections, Dems win and this is check mate, China becomes the new world leader. |
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03-29-26 spal
I'd prefer it if people just called Saudi Arabia a gas station run by a Mafia state ... pretending these are real countries with real interests ius part of the problem here.
Iran is actually a real country. |
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03-29-26 spal
Panas - my view is that the Saudis are horrible, vicious people ... so my inclination is to contain these mother fuckers.
I can also say this diplomatically, but you are a friend. |
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03-29-26 spal
| The rest of the blah blah on this is ... bullshit for consumption by helpful idiots. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Spal, it has always been abt. control of gulf states, Israel was the excuse to keep people united against a common enemy.
Behind scenes Israel and Gulf States were working together monitoring the weapons build up.
Masks off means, now is a wide open confrontation, and that explains why autopen (Biden) was rcvd so coldly in KSA during his visit. |
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03-29-26 spal
IDF sources told Israeli media that they no longer believed regime change was possible, so the plan shifted to destroying as much of Iran's civilian and military infrastructure as possible.
===
Let's state it clearly now shall we.
Israel see Iran as the only legitimate contender for their plan to dominate the Middle East hence this campaign.
This is their entire motivation. |
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03-29-26 ruspan
The IRGC announces strikes on American universities in the Middle East.
According to a statement from the IRGC, the US administration has until 12:00 PM Tehran time on March 30 to condemn the attacks on Iranian universities.
Otherwise, it claims, American educational institutions in the region could become targets.
The statement also notes that two American universities in the Middle East will be destroyed regardless of Washington's response—as retaliation for the bombed Iranian universities. The names of these institutions are not specified. |
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03-29-26 ruspan
Today, the Israeli Air Force, possibly in conjunction with the US Air Force, struck the Tehran Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization.
The facility was completely destroyed. The Natural Resources and Watershed Management Organization is a civilian body responsible for managing the natural environment and waterways in Tehran Province, according to several international humanitarian organizations.
As a reminder, on March 11, IDF sources told Israeli media that they no longer believed regime change was possible, so the plan shifted to destroying as much of Iran's civilian and military infrastructure as possible. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Panas ... can you dumb that last comment down for me ... I am a bit slow this morning. Let me get some more coffee. |
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03-29-26 amateur
Pana, I agree that preventing Iran from becoming atomic armed was and is a necessary and valid objective.
But what is the plan to get there? DT blah blah that Iran would surrender after the first strikes proved wrong. Did Israel believe it could succeed?
In any case, it did not. What is the plan now? Keep bombing month after month until the last launching site is eliminated? And Houties, and other Iran supported movements in Iraq, Lebanon?
Will DT keep support for a long fight as the elections come closer, or will he, as in Ukraine, get cold feet and withdraw?
What is your guess abt coming development? |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Spal, now that masks are off we understand why Auto-pen was rcvd in KSA by the janitor, their desperate call to stop the build up were totally ignored for years. |
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03-29-26 amateur
| The United Arab Emirates’ defence ministry said it had engaged 16 ballistic missiles and 42 drones on Sunday, the second day of a marked increase in attacks on the Gulf state.… |
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03-29-26 spal
Oh and with enough current bombing and destruction you can obviously beat it back to an equilibrium where the Emiratis go back to their slave states, big hotels and Russian hookers (sorry Ruspan) and the Iranians back to tickering with the Koran and weapons high in the mountains ... but it will be an unstable equilibrium.
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03-29-26 spal
Big mistake is to let this build up.
===
Unless this is solved in the Gulf you can kiss it goodbye. |
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03-29-26 spal
I trust gulf states intelligence services abt. breaking the balance in the region that would put them on their knees.
===
They only have knees because of oil.
Virtually zero of their development comes from their own merits or abilities.
Sure part of the fight is the politics of envy and I 100% understand how that drive human nature. It is probably the key driver.
Big mistake is to let this build up.
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03-29-26 spal
Iran is a huge country with a vigorous and very young 80 mln population, how would you imagine its destruction short of carpet nukes?
Ukrain is smaller, have 20 mlh population now, half of it pensionists. It is regulary ans systematically bombed in all its terrirory for several years now. Still fights quite vigurously.
Think about it.
===
Ruspan ... I am probably on your side ... much more than you think. You are 100% correct here. Good observations. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
| Spal, we agree in the essence that DT went solo without sharing with allieds, logistics is everything went you enter a crystal shop. |
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03-29-26 panasonic
Ruspan, yes your view matches anti-war people which is ok, but certainly more risky
I trust gulf states intelligence services abt. breaking the balance in the region that would put them on their knees.
How do you explain that a country with 12 zeros devaluation and wide devastation from war still seeks an arsenal of weapons that reaches Europe not be considered aggressive? |
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03-29-26 spal
ran acquires nuclear capability, will the present problem be smaller or bigger?
....
My question is do lapdog states deserve to live the high life in that region or should a civilizing force of thousands of years and 90,000,000 people also get a role? Related to the question of should autocratic, monarchies sit on the heads of their people in the same region? Final question ... is Israel a transnational "project" to a some other question or is it legitimately an outgrowth of a domestic need.
Bonus question ... why are all these people obsessed with their religions and their dictates? And should we give two fucks? |
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03-29-26 spal
- monster grew even bigger and Israel can't handle the military campaign by its own.
The question is why the monster grew bigger. Clearly there was energy and enthusiasm behind it otherwise it would not grow. The question of monster and that categorization is one of perspective ... very similar to the nomenclature "terrorist" ... again one is consumed in a view simply from the direction one looks. This applies also from the view out of the rubble of Gaza for example.
The question Panas is not simple. It is complex and that it why it has not been solved.
Iran decided in 1979 to "go it alone". They did not become an international business and tech franchise to the McDonald's vendors of the world.
Unfortunately one of the "fires" that they use to charge up the people (in the case of Israel) is antisemistism ... this is done for various reasons, but having a common enemy is a unifying force normally. There is an unfortunate side to this and I also think it is bad policy.
But the Iranians are independent - they are not like the lapdog states in the Gulf. Thought about in purely terms like this I think that one should prefer independents rather than lapdogs.
The lapdog business is a global one and normally in the world you have to chose this state of being one way of another.
Longer term view is that Iran is the only legitimate challenge to Israels claim to hegemony in the region and that is why the Israelis are smacking then as hard and as fast as they can.
The question is at what point can detente be agreed?
Concerning nuclear proliferation ... that is also a mind-bendingly difficult question.
BTW the Persians and Jews were friends for thousands of years ... they managed to fuck this up only in recent times.
Democrats wont ever join, so there is a very narrow window to end it.
My question to colores is only one:
Iran acquires nuclear capability, will the present problem be smaller or bigger? |
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03-29-26 ruspan
Pana, if Iran would adquire nuclear capability there would be no problem and no war now, imho - all this tales about crazy uncontrollable mullas are coming from really crazy people with a plan for regional domination who already set the whole place on fire and put the whole planet firmly on a way to a crisis of yet unseen scale, with hundreds of millions in direct danger.
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03-29-26 ruspan
Amateur: "03-29-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations?"
Iran is a huge country with a vigorous and very young 80 mln population, how would you imagine its destruction short of carpet nukes?
Ukrain is smaller, have 20 mlh population now, half of it pensionists. It is regulary ans systematically bombed in all its terrirory for several years now. Still fights quite vigurously.
Think about it.
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03-29-26 panasonic
Spal, Amateur the answer is quite simple.
Negotiations approach didn't work, monster grew even bigger and Israel can't handle the military campaign by its own.
Democrats wont ever join, so there is a very narrow window to end it.
My question to colores is only one:
Iran acquires nuclear capability, will the present problem be smaller or bigger?
I am in the same camp as Gulf States, you?
That was my "wave a white flag" question days ago. |
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03-29-26 ruspan
The Gulf War is already impacting the global food system—and the consequences could be far more serious than rising oil prices, according to The Telegraph.
"The longer the war continues, the worse the looming global food crisis will become," says a column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, a British economics journalist.
The blow has struck the very heart of fertilizer production.
"Supplies of urea, ammonia, and sulfur were halted for 27 critical days in the agricultural calendar," the author writes.
At the same time, export restrictions by China, Russia, and Turkey have worsened the situation.
"About 45% of global nitrogen fertilizer supplies have either already been interrupted, disrupted, or are under threat," the article notes.
The crisis is unfolding at a crucial moment—before the Northern Hemisphere sowing season.
"This is happening just before spring sowing... This is the worst of the 'black swans,'" the author emphasizes.
The consequences could be systemic.
"This is the number one concern today. All major grain crops, as well as animal feed, are at risk," said WTO representative Jean-Marie Paugam.
"In some countries, people will die of hunger if they don't receive imports," the article states.
Prices have already risen: the global price of urea has increased by approximately 60%, to around $680 per ton, and in some regions, it has reached $900.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of supplies is simply stuck.
"24 ships carrying fertilizer are currently in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach farmers," said the head of the US Fertilizer Institute.
A separate risk is the concentration of supplies.
Up to a third of the global urea trade and about half of the sulfur supply come from the Persian Gulf countries.
Over the long term, the effect will mount.
"First, a hit to fertilizer supplies, then a drop in crop yields in the fall, and then a rise in food prices in 2027," experts warn.
"The lag is measured in seasons, not days," the article states.
"In the new world, survival requires growing your own food, producing your own energy, and producing your own fertilizer," the author concludes.
(Re- translated back from Russian)
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03-29-26 amateur
| Sorry for duplicate post… |
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03-29-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations? |
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03-29-26 pillz
Iran's Pezeshkian clashes with IRGC's chief over control of Iran, marking rifts in regime - report
Iran International reported that Iran's President Pezeshkian criticized the IRGC's approach of increasing tensions in the region and attacking neighbouring countries.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891479 |
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03-29-26 spal
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03-29-26 pillz
Pilly - we honestly need you sage and wise insight on Israel here.
//
there is nothing to say, Israel try to change the regime in Iran, if not they will have 3 to 5 years time to re-fight ... |
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03-29-26 spal
UAE has an active role in Iran war and will be pounded if US invades, Iranian sources say
===
Boom boom boom boom
I'm gonna shoot you right down,
right offa your feet
Boom Boom Lyrics by John Lee Hooker |
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03-29-26 spal
Bahrain's aluminum facility hit in Iran attack, state news agency says
https://cnn.com/2026/03/28/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump?post-id=cmnb18twj00003b6t3ihhis4g
There goes the neighborhood
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03-29-26 Merlino
| https://x.com/WoodMackenzie/status/2037515052937290200 |
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03-29-26 spal
This is indeed a "grave escalation" for several strategic reasons:
Houthi Entry: For the first time in this month-old war, the Houthi rebels officially entered the conflict today (Saturday), launching their own missiles toward "sensitive Israeli military sites." This forces Israel to defend a 360-degree front.
Hypersonic Penetration: The reported strike on the fortified IDF command center suggests that the Fattah-2 is successfully maneuvering around THAAD and Arrow-3 interceptors. OSINT analysts are calling this a "new era of air defense" where traditional interceptors are failing to achieve a 100% kill rate.
Regional Spillover: By targeting Irbil and bases in Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan Air Base) simultaneously, Iran is effectively ignoring U.S. President Trump’s "ceasefire window" (originally set to expire April 6) and is instead opting for a "deterrence by punishment" strategy. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Hypersonic missile attacks directed at Dubai International Airport. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Or sabotage? ... That is a possibility that I also heard floated. |
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