10-04-26 victor
savo, and there's something else going against sanchez, and the clock is ticking on this:
the return of puigdemont.
the path has been almost cleared for his return, and is expected to do so in the near future.
sanchez was hoping that he would return AFTER elections, by trying to delay his return process as much as possible.
but apparently the timing isn't helping sanchez..
again, because of the judges.
if P returns before elections, that's even more people pissed off at sanchez- voting against sanchez.
so that's an argument for having elections ASAP. |
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10-04-26 victor
savo, she was forced out because the judges, which includes the Supremo, refused to help her.
so it wasn't sanchez's doing, but the judges's.
//
Tribunal Supremo y Tribunal Constitucional
La defensa de Maricarmen interpuso recursos de casación y de amparo respectivamente, pero ambos fueron inadmitidos, dejando firme la orden de lanzamiento. |
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10-04-26 victor
carib, the same would apply. :-)
when was the last time psoe+podemos+sumar had more seats than pp+vox? |
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10-04-26 carib
| Victor: I wrote "RELATIVE majority, not absolute. |
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10-04-26 savo
victor... the famous Maricarmen ..was evicted by the national police who works under Sanchez under judicial order...
All this was noise
I do not see why Sanchez will advanced elections heving one more year in power. He can argue he tried. |
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10-04-26 victor
:-))
Rosa Díez, sobre si Pedro Sánchez adelantará las elecciones: «No lo hará. El horizonte penal de su mujer y el suyo le atan a la Moncloa»
La exmiembro del PSOE y líder histórico de UPyD ha cargado duramente contra el presidente del Gobierno |
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10-04-26 victor
carib, "the left" will fail to win a relative majority
//
when was the last time that the spanish left (psoe, podemos, sumar) had abs maj?
i believe it's decades ago, with felipe g. :-))
since decades, they have been able to put together govts only by cutting deals with the regional parties. |
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10-04-26 savo
spal...Iran can not stay at the table much longer
we heard that before... Vietnam... Afghanistan..etc...
and yet they did... much much longer... |
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10-03-26 spal
| The fantasies coming out of Tehran are as stupid as there mid-witted lego videos ... maybe they'd confuse and make a 14 year old laugh ... that is possible I guess. |
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10-03-26 spal
| The theory that Iran and the U.S. are playing a 4D game of chess over U.S. Treasury yields via energy prices is a joke and trap for slow witted journos. Sorry. |
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10-03-26 spal
| The Iran thing is a sideshow. At worst it is a frozen conflict. They will have to settle at some point. |
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10-03-26 spal
Iran needs oil to stay expensive for as long as possible. Every month of high prices is another month of high interest rates on America’s $40 trillion debt.
===
This has almost zero to do with it. Energy prices have spiked - they will come down again - this is certain - this is how commodity markets work.
In the meantime the Saudis are very, very happy ... do not feel sorry for them.
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10-03-26 spal
everyone else’s energy production in 2026.
===
Who is everyone? On an overriding basis the Middle East's customer basis is China, Japan and Korea. It is already a corridor.
The US probably has bought in too deeply into the Greater Israel project (but this is how lobbies and politics work) - however I personally would not be sure what Iran would do if it went nuclear. It is a dilemma.
The Russian issue in my mind is down to NATO paranoia. They destroyed their own energy corridor - besides Europe destroying itself internally. Again a Europe problem really.
Concerning energy shortages - there are NO shortages - there is massive upheaval and disruption. This has pushed up the price, not a shortage of molecules.
BTW Iran can not stay at the table much longer - wars of attrition are for high rollers only.
And yes America can out last anyone at the energy table.
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10-03-26 savo
But look at what has happened to everyone else’s energy production in 2026...
On March 18, Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field. Iran answered by firing missiles at Ras Laffan in Qatar, one of the largest natural gas export sites on Earth. The strikes knocked out about 17% of Qatar’s export capacity, and repairs are expected to take years.
In September, drones launched from Iraq hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the main route for Saudi oil to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia shut it down.
In Russia, Ukrainian drones hit an oil refinery about once every three days during the first eight months of 2026, according to the International Energy Agency. By June, Russia’s refineries were running about 30% below a year earlier.
Iran’s own exports are being choked off on purpose. In September, America’s Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said the biggest job of the U.S. military in the region right now is to “stop the export of any Iranian crude.”
That’s a lot of energy offline. Who is stepping in to fill the gap?
In April 2026, American crude oil exports hit a record 5.6 million barrels a day, up 21% from the previous record. In the first half of the year, American gas exports rose 23%, and exports to Asia more than doubled. Europe is expected to get about two-thirds of its imported gas from America this year.
The most striking change is in Qatar.
By the end of July, the state company QatarEnergy had bought 33 shiploads of American gas this year to fulfill contracts with its buyers in South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, India and Bangladesh. One of the world’s great gas sellers has become a customer of America.
Long-term contracts are being signed, too.
In July 2025, the European Union promised to buy $750 billion of American energy by 2028.
On September 1, 2026, following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the United States signed a deal with Venezuela’s interim government that gives an American-led company 100-year rights to 17 of the country’s oil fields - allegedly the biggest on earth.
Here is the theory in one sentence:
America does not need to win a bond war if it can make the whole world depend on American energy, priced in American dollars.
Important to note: America did not fire the missiles that destroyed the global energy infrastructure.
Iran hit Qatar. Ukraine hit Russia. Militias in Iraq hit Saudi Arabia.
In March, America bombed military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, where about 90 percent of Iran’s oil is loaded, but deliberately left the oil terminal standing. Trump said he spared it “for reasons of decency.”
I think it gave America something more useful than a burning oil terminal. It gave America plausible deniability.
A strategy like this only works if America is never seen bombing the world’s energy supply itself. America only has to be the one country that gets stronger every time someone else’s energy burns.
So far, that is exactly what has happened.
So every tanker Iran threatens helps America’s energy war.
But America’s energy war keeps oil expensive, too.
Every rival supply that stays offline keeps energy prices high, and high prices keep inflation high. High inflation tells the Fed to raise rates, and higher rates make America’s debt more expensive to carry.
So every barrel America sells at a high price helps Iran’s bond war.
America will never say it wants expensive oil. It says the opposite. But expensive oil is what happens when the world’s other suppliers are knocked offline.
So…
Iran is creating expensive oil overtly. America is creating expensive oil covertly.
What’s really going on?
Both countries are creating expensive oil, but they want different things from it.
Iran needs oil to stay expensive for as long as possible. Every month of high prices is another month of high interest rates on America’s $40 trillion debt.
America only needs oil to stay expensive for a while. As long as rival suppliers are knocked offline, the world signs long contracts with Texas, Alaska and Venezuela (via America).
Once those customers are locked in, America no longer needs expensive oil. It needs the opposite. Cheaper oil would cool inflation, let the Fed lower rates and shrink the interest bill.
That is what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was describing on August 8, when he said that over the next two years the Strait of Hormuz would become “just another body of water.” If most of the world’s energy flows around the strait instead of through it, the fear built into every barrel disappears, and Iran loses the price it claims to set.
So this is a race between two clocks. America’s clock is measured in energy contracts. Iran’s clock is measured in Fed meetings. |
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10-03-26 spal
| production is interlinked interlinked worldwide ... this shit is over. |
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10-03-26 spal
Savo - the trade deficit is always balanced by capital flows. Foreign holders are at 22% (this is down from c.30%). They are not going to crash out their own investments by exiting rapidly and they will be replaced domestically.
100% reshoring is happening - as is a balkanization of the tech sphere and platforms. Same with energy corridors. |
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10-03-26 savo
spal.. when i am talking about buyers demanding higher and higher rates I am thinking about offshore buyers...
Domestically .. I agree that the government can force banks and other entities to continue funding the government at suppressed rates.
But there are other problems to that mess... including the trade deficit...
AI:
"The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to $132.6 billion in August 2026, marking an increase from $118.9 billion in July. This was the largest deficit since March 2025 and indicates a significant impact on GDP growth for the third quarter of 2026."
March 2025 was before tariffs... hence.. when importers were rushing to import...
well... august beat that month...
The US needs the world to accept dollars to continue financing its over-consumption...
If that financing breaks the whole thing breaks.
Momentarily nobody is thinking about a major US financial crisis because hyperscalers continue reaching new ATH...
bu it is happening right in front of our eyes...
Death by inflation or Death by financial crisis.
regarding reshoring which you mention .. i do not think it is going to happen... production is interlinked interlinked worldwide... it would be massively inflationary... the US consumes a lot abroad because producing it at home is more expensive...the only way reshoring can happen is if the dollar falls over an extended period of time... hence inflation.. hence higher bond rates...
from wherever yyou try to grab them the result is always the same ... less buyers.. more sellers... higher rates... higher deficit.. more inflation.
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10-03-26 spal
| Lo que vendra ... capital flows overwhelmingly into state-sanctioned, tangible, or defensive sectors—energy corridors, industrial re-shoring, defense infrastructure, and multi-family real estate—while speculative, high-duration paper models lose their funding base. |
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10-03-26 spal
There was still an enormous reservoir of global and domestic private capital willing to buy long-term U.S. debt at 4.5% to 5.0% voluntarily.
For conservative pension funds, life insurance companies, and fixed-income allocators, 5% nominal yields looked like the best income return they had seen in fifteen years.
This voluntary capital absorbed the supply shock temporarily. However, as structural inflation settles at 3% to 4%+, those 5% nominal bonds offer a pathetic real return after taxes and inflation. Once that voluntary institutional wave finishes its rebalancing, the buyer vacuum appears. ... first failed bond auction and in come the liquidity and capital controls ... they will come. |
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10-03-26 spal
| If an individual bank tries to play the "bond vigilante" by dumping Treasuries or refusing to roll over sovereign paper, regulators adjust risk-weightings, capital adequacy ratios, or liquidity coverage requirements (LCR). The institution is immediately disciplined, absorbed, or forced into compliance long before it can destabilize state funding. ... Just watch ... actually you will not have to ... they will blink first. |
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10-03-26 spal
| The banking system in the United States - and this might surprise you - is already quasi nationalized. When push comes to shove there is no such thing as a vigilante (only a dead one). |
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10-03-26 spal
Savo - financial repression is coercion -it is not a request that the bond market accept low rates.
The state will do the following:
- stuff banks fuller with government debt
- stuff pension funds and IRA's with it (you know the old adjustments for "risk free" assets and related BS.
- impose capital controls
Pretty soon the market starts to look like Chinas.
This produces a managed real negative yield of 3% per year. It does not trigger hyperinflation - it triggers a slow, systematic 50% loss of purchasing power over 15 to 20 years. This is exactly how the US reduced its post WW2 debt levels.
But you are right there are only 2 choices now:
Explicit default (politically impossible) or coercing rates below inflation (financial repression).
You say 1 - I say 2.
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10-03-26 carib
| If there are elections in Spain this year, my expectation is "the left" will fail to win a relative majority. But making a new government might be less than easy. |
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10-03-26 carib
| The required and well known solution to the housing crisis (which actually exists only in certain locations).. is to build much higher in those locations. If land is worth 1.000 rather than 100.. 12 floors instead of two balances the accounts. |
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10-03-26 savo
victor... Propone bajar los impuestos hasta el 60 por ciento a los jóvenes para la compra de su primera casa
bad keynesian idea... more demand... higher prices.
The way to solve the housing affordability crisis ( or the affordability crisis of anything) is to always work on the supply side.. never on the demand side. |
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10-03-26 savo
let's go back to the simple equation.... US debt is growing at 8% pa. GDP at 2%.. hence the US needs inflation at 6% to keep real ratios stable.
That is more or less where US inflation is now... and rates are still below inflation...so erosion is working... slowly.
But the moment rates go up... the growth of debt increases and so will have to increase the rate of inflation to return real ratios to stable.
But as the rate of inflation increases... so will the rate of interest... and so the rate of growth of debt.
a death spiral. The US has entered that spiral.
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10-03-26 savo
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10-03-26 savo
spal... It will take 20-25 years ...
the economy is static... the other side also plays
with the strategy revealed... bond liquidation will accelerate... rates will have to go higher and higher to attract new investors becoming then real positive and hence ending the value erosion.
What the US is trying under the ignorant in Chief has been tried several times by other countries... ends in hyperinflation when the only taker left of government debt is the Central Bank.
The reason it worked during the last 40 years is because a) the starting amount of debt was small... and b) bonds were in a 40 years bull market...
Now the opposite happens. |
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10-03-26 victor
29 de noviembre, según eldiario
//
electomanía
‼️Sánchez 🌹 estaría barajando seriamente convocar elecciones 🗳️ el próximo 29 de noviembre, según eldiario
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10-03-26 victor
carib, feijoo wants elections ASAP.. according to polls pp+vox would have over 200 seats.
//
Alberto Núñez Feijóo
No pido elecciones por revanchismo. Las pido porque España no aguanta más.
Oct 3, 2026
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10-03-26 victor
Pedro Sánchez
España sigue avanzando.
El mejor septiembre de toda la serie histórica: 92.327 empleos más, un récord de 22,43 millones de afiliados y casi 740.000 trabajadores más que hace un año.
Más empleo, más derechos y más oportunidades para seguir construyendo una España más fuerte y con más futuro.
Oct 2, 2026
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10-03-26 carib
| Victor: if there will be elections in Spain this fall.. will Sanchez survive (politically, of course)? |
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10-03-26 carib
| Victor: most unlikely, hence free promise. |
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10-03-26 victor
yet again..
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all Adult Citizens in the United States of America, $5,000. Thank you for your attention to this matter, and I look forward to signing those checks! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Oct 03, 2026 |
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10-03-26 victor
Feijóo promete aprobar un plan en su primer mes de mandato para construir un millón de viviendas
Propone bajar los impuestos hasta el 60 por ciento a los jóvenes para la compra de su primera casa |
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10-03-26 panasonic
| Vic, next year will be interesing to watch Spain, projected growth for 2027 around 1.8% vs 2.1% this year. |
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10-03-26 victor
pana, and when miriam gave her speech in parliament, explaining why she would be voting NO, sanchez was so pissed that he refused to listen to her and walked out of parliament.
he only returned after miriam finished. :-))
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10-03-26 victor
pana, "after parliament rejected a package of emergency tenant protection"
se llama Miriam quien tumbo los decretos de vivienda de Sanchez. :-))
Sanchez puede verse obligado por las protestas a convocar elecciones. |
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10-03-26 carib
| As Rudy Dornbush used to say.. certain things moves much slower that one expects, and then suddenly much faster that one anticipates.. |
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10-03-26 panasonic
"It will take 20-25 years"
Depends where, French seems to be running out of patience.
Spain not looking very promising:
"Massive housing protests have erupted across Spain, with tens of thousands of people marching in 50 cities. Demonstrators are demanding affordable housing after parliament rejected a package of emergency tenant protection" |
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10-03-26 panasonic
"Mostly exists now BTW at at the lower stratum"
True |
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10-03-26 carib
| UBI without the U.. is essentially a rationalisation of the current welfare system. |
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10-03-26 carib
| Spal: Brasil, in this century, had what you would call a "left democrat" government for 20 years out of 26. |
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10-03-26 carib
However, i would make no quarter century prediction of sorts. Things are moving too fast for that already.
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10-03-26 spal
The Single Point of Failure:
BofA concludes that the market has become extraordinarily fragile. Because equity valuations no longer reflect underlying bond yields or capital costs, the AI narrative is the last line of defense preventing a systemic equity re-pricing.
I think this is right. |
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10-03-26 spal
| We get there via the boiling frog effect ... and then in 20 years we wake up in a Brazil. |
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10-03-26 spal
| Carib - is Brazil unstable? The true stakeholders are few. |
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10-03-26 spal
| Panas - I agree with Carib UBI sans the U ... it mostly exists now BTW at at the lower stratum. |
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10-03-26 carib
Spal: I agree on that forecast, actually.
But political and social stability, IMHO, require a majority of stakeholders, rather than a small minority. |
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10-03-26 spal
| No US and the west are likely far from and street riots and the guillotine. For sure there will be mechanisms to ensure the roll over and preference of government debt - more sub market debt pushed into banks (and central banks) - rates capped under, capital controls, tariffs etc. The plan is to inflate the debt down. They will lie about this strategy continuously and even fudge numbers. But financial repression is the only way forward. It will take 20-25 years ... |
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10-03-26 carib
| Panas: IMHO the U in UBI is impossible, and the amount is the actual issue. |
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10-03-26 panasonic
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10-03-26 carib
| ..and taxation moving from income to wealth? |
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10-03-26 carib
Spal: pre-revolutionary conditions?
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10-03-26 spal
During financial repression, wealth stops being a function of income or hard work and becomes a function of asset positioning and leverage.
The Real Estate Stratification: Property ownership concentrates into two distinct camps: institutional/high-net-worth capital holding vast portfolios of multi-family and commercial assets, and a growing generation of permanent renters. Single-family homes become luxury capital-preservation vehicles rather than standard starter assets for young families.
The "Two-Tiered Currency" Reality: The wealthy operate in a world of inflation-hedged assets, private equity, and hard-capital corridors. The working population operates strictly in the debased circulating medium, watching their purchasing power erode between paycheck cycles. |
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10-03-26 spal
The defining characteristic of a "Brazilianized" society is not uniform poverty, but structural economic duality—a small, hyper-connected elite floating above a vast, informal or semi-formal working mass, with the traditional middle class hollowed out.
===
It is fair that actual Brazil become the role model ... I mean why not ...
;) |
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10-03-26 spal
| Savo - the financial repression playbook is now engaged. |
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10-03-26 spal
What Society and the Economy Look Like After Financial Repression
On the other side of a multi-decade financial repression cycle, the real purchasing power of historical debt has been liquidated, but the social and economic landscape is fundamentally altered:
A Multi-Generational Wealth Transfer
Financial repression does not destroy wealth; it reallocates it.
The Unspoken Tax: The real purchasing power lost by fixed-income savers, bondholders, and cash depositors over 25 years is transferred directly to the sovereign debtor (clearing state balance sheets) and to leveraged borrowers holding hard assets.
The Real Estate & Asset Divide: A stark divergence emerges between those who owned real estate, infrastructure, and equity in productive enterprises during the inflation window, and those who relied strictly on wage income or fixed paper assets.
Re-Industrialization Out of Necessity
Because capital costs were artificially managed and foreign import networks became increasingly volatile, domestic capital is forced back into domestic, tangible assets:
Infrastructure Re-Shoring: State policy heavily incentivizes domestic energy production, advanced manufacturing, and transport infrastructure—the physical "corridors" that generate real productivity.
Tangible Capital Dominance: Financial engineering, hyper-leveraged paper derivatives, and zero-interest rate speculative models give way to businesses that generate immediate, real cash flows and own scarce physical bottlenecks.
Structural Fiscal Realism
The End of Free Money Illusion: Having systematically inflated away one debt cycle, institutional trust in sovereign paper assets is depleted for a generation.
Harder Budget Boundaries: Government borrowing can no longer rely on un-capped central bank backstops without instantly triggering currency volatility. Fiscal policy is forced to align more closely with real tax receipts and primary balance constraints.
Summary
The post-financial repression United States is a nation that has successfully reset its sovereign debt burden without a formal debt restructuring or default.
However, the cost of that reset is paid through a quarter-century of stealth inflation—resulting in a society where tangible assets, real productive infrastructure, and cash-flow-generating corridors completely outshine paper assets, and where the state's balance sheet is healed at the direct expense of historical paper savings. |
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10-03-26 savo
Trump Says Inflation Will Pay Off The $40 Trillion Debt "Very Rapidly"
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-says-inflation-will-pay-40-trillion-debt-very-rapidly
he blames Biden for the inflation he inherited... forgetting the inflation Biden inherited from him.
But if Biden's inflation was bad and he keeps on criticizing Biden for it... why is his inflation good? |
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