06-01-26 savo
Daniel Mayakovski
@DaniMayakovski
"Hemos tomado 1.000 millones de dólares en criptomonedas de Irán, simplemente nos hemos apoderado de sus billeteras, muchos iraníes estarán escribiendo en redes sociales sin saber que les hemos robado sus billeteras".
Scott Bessent, Secretario del Tesoro de EEUU, se enorgullece de robar 1.000 millones en criptomonedas de Irán como si fuesen hackers y delincuentes cibernéticos.
Piratas Unidos con Trump ni siquiera tapan sus robos, son la mayor organizacion criminal del planeta.
https://x.com/danimayakovski/status/2061404485491011893 |
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06-01-26 victor
last line :-))
//
Benjamin Netanyahu - בנימין נתניהו
Tonight, I spoke with President Trump and told him that if Hezbollah does not cease attacking our cities and citizens—Israel will attack terror targets in Beirut.
This stance of ours remains unchanged.
In parallel, the IDF will continue to operate as planned in southern Lebanon. |
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06-01-26 carib
ft
America’s profit machine seems extraordinary by historical and global standards. But look closer, and cracks appear. Rising government deficits explain a surprising share of recent US earnings growth. Moreover, the “profitless” dotcom era is a myth. Earnings growth is not dramatically stronger today than it was in the late 1990s.
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06-01-26 victor
well..
I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back. Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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06-01-26 carib
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06-01-26 leopardo
10k why not if we have a bit of patience.
I have the London GDR wich is quotes 5800
right now |
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06-01-26 carib
| Leo: Samsung target price? |
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06-01-26 leopardo
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06-01-26 carib
| Bought a toehold in SES (SES AI corp, NYSE).. hoping it will follow the path of AMPX (now 20x initial purchase price) |
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06-01-26 carib
| Victor: but Bibi might be a retiree this fall.. |
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06-01-26 victor
carib, seems to me that netanyahu gets to laugh last..
he does whatever he wants in lebanon, and dt appears to be in no position to tell him to stop. |
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06-01-26 spal
| At a cost of 69 cents ... I like |
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06-01-26 spal
The infra biz will theoretically trade at c. $5 June 24 (based on today's price) ... but probably more by then.
And is worth c. 11-12. |
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06-01-26 spal
Current shares trade at 11 ... this include c $6 payment June 24.
Thus ex-price is c. $5
Ex value is c. $11 again IMVHO
I am holding.
My cost base on a large position is now $6.73.
So I get the infra biz for c. 69 cents a share ... give or take. |
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06-01-26 spal
Pure-play infrastructure peers with regulated pipeline tolling and proprietary deep-water ports rarely trade below 7x–8x EBITDA, even with a Latin American geopolitical discount.
Conservative Valuation (7x EBITDA): $110M EBITDA $\times$ 7 = $770 million Fair EV.
FECCF ... Frontera has now closed there disposal of E&P assets to Parex ... shares now trade with payment attached of c.$6.03 per share to be paid June 24 (as a non taxable return of capital).
From here they are a pure play infra co ... with Puerto Bahia and 35% share of a pipeline (controlled by Ecopetrol).
Target Net Share Price: Dividends aside, the infrastructure business alone justifies an intrinsic equity value of roughly $10.50 to $11.50 per share based on institutional infrastructure multiples.
Conclusion: Yes, at a net price of ~5 (net of the USD c. 6.03 distribution June 24) ,the shares remain deeply undervalued.
Once Frontera begins reporting as a clean, high-margin, pure-play infrastructure company with zero E&P capital expenditure drag, the market is highly likely to re-rate the stock closer to standard midstream multiples.
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06-01-26 carib
Victor: If Iran is actually forced to abandon any present and future nuclear development.. and hormuz re-opens for good..chapeau to DT.
If Iran cheats as always, and DT declares defeat to be victory..
quite bad outcome.
We can wait, leaving in the meantime the benefit of the doubt.
Meawhile, Israel pounces on Hamas remainders and Hetzbollah.. |
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06-01-26 spal
MU above 1.000$ a share..
===
Yes and still well within current analyst targets.
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06-01-26 victor
Seyed Abbas Araghchi
For Urgent Attention:
A ceasefire between Iran and the United States constitutes, without any ambiguity, a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon.
Any violation of this ceasefire on one front shall be considered a violation of it across all fronts.
The United States and Israel bear responsibility for the consequences of any breach of the truce. |
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06-01-26 victor
carib, dt posted this 9 hours ago :-))
Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us. But don’t the Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans, understand that it is MUCH tougher for me to properly do my job and negotiate, when political hacks keep negatively “chirping,” at levels never seen before, over and over again, that I should move faster, or move slower, or go to war, or not go to war, or whatever. Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does! President DJT |
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06-01-26 panasonic
Savo, your buddy sells some btc
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/michael-saylor-strategy-sells-32-122554651.html |
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06-01-26 carib
| Iran has called an immediate halt to its talks with the United States over Israel's military activity in Lebanon, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported on Monday. |
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06-01-26 carib
| Samsung el 350.000 won... |
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06-01-26 carib
Savo: Ireland always had a non-dom regime..I guess just because it was part of the UK when Pitt the young introduced the regime in 1799. Same goes for former colonies like Malta, Cyprus, Barbados, etc.
For "a foothold in the EU".. I maintain my opinion than Luxembourg is the right base.. |
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06-01-26 carib
| Panas: I understand, and that is very reasonable indeed.. |
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06-01-26 carib
| MU above 1.000$ a share.. |
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06-01-26 spal
| Credit has a habit of disintegrating at times. |
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06-01-26 spal
there is not enough money available in the world to finance this spending binge
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Money IS credit ... so there is ... but credit can be of varied qualities ... that is all. |
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06-01-26 savo
| https://x.com/0xsammy/status/2061341557035348458 |
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06-01-26 savo
spal... more on the matter
i am not capable of understanding the details of this.. but it looks as sales are being inflated
which is in line with the logic of all these... there is not enough money available in the world to finance this spending binge..
but wall street and the NVIDIAs need to keep the music playing. |
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06-01-26 panasonic
Carib, no need in my case...I spend my few research daily hours reading abt. my core interest, aka AI and related.
Tax wise, my decision is very simple: living near my grandkids, that is where money I've made is best spent and applies only "to me".
Family-wise we already discussed, wealth tax is a no go! but won't move before facts, what else can I add that has not been said?
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06-01-26 savo
liar liar
Just a few hours after President Trump boasted that the US Navy had detonated "numerous" Iranian sea mines, NBC News reported that, even after three months of warfare, the US military has yet to confirm the presence of even a single mine in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.
Citing two US officials and a "person familiar with the matter," NBC said relentless searches of the waterway by aerial and undersea drones haven't found any confirmed mines, merely finding some objects that might be mines. “If anything, the threat has been far less robust than we had feared,” the person "familiar with the matter" told NBC.
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06-01-26 savo
carib...we knew about Barbados.. Ireland is new to me in this aspect...
gifts, inheritance... i do not expect any...my parents are gone ...my wife's already gifted.
In any case.. it is an option to add to the list if one wishes to have a tax base in the EU.
Remember I was asking for a plain vanilla non-dom regime with no stings attached... well... here it is... together with the cold and the rain..but if a few weeks per annum does the trick... it looks solid to me. |
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06-01-26 spal
| Savo - note that the initial Colossus cluster (Musk / X-Ai) was rented to Anthropic ... does not fully neutralize Burry, but shows money is flowing. |
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06-01-26 carib
Panas: of course one must pay to read FT, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc.
such is life.
The FT articles reports about wealthy UK residents who have not yet left considering doing so in droves in fear of new labor leadership opting for wealth tax.
Those who left high tax jurisdictions long time ago just relaxing. |
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06-01-26 carib
| In Barbados, resident non-domiciled individuals are not required to disclose or report their global foreign assets.Because Barbados operates on a remittance basis, foreign income and assets are strictly private as long as the funds remain outside the country. You are only subject to local taxes on foreign income if that income is remitted to (or benefits) Barbados. |
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06-01-26 carib
Barbados does not impose a gift tax, regardless of your residency or domicile status.
Both residents and non-domiciled individuals can give or receive gifts without incurring local gift taxes.
While there are no specific gift, estate, or inheritance taxes in Barbados, keep in mind:Income & Remittance: If you are a tax resident, non-domiciled status means you generally only pay income tax on Barbados-sourced income and any foreign income remitted (brought) to the island.
Purely unremitted foreign gifts are usually not subject to taxation. |
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06-01-26 carib
Savo: that is the standard way a remittance basis system works.
I much prefer Barbados to Ireland as a non-dom taxation jurisdiction, starting from the weather.. |
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06-01-26 panasonic
Hassabis delivers good news
Https://www.google.com/amp/s/timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/google-ai-ceo-demis-hassabis-has-a-message-for-laid-off-engineers-at-meta-amazon-block-and-other-companies-i-have-a-million-ideas-i-would-love-to-have-some-free-engineers-to-go-and/amp_articleshow/131434059.cms |
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06-01-26 savo
carib.. these guys explain it well
Remittance 101: How It Works (and How It Can Trip You Up)
Under Ireland’s remittance basis of tax, those who are residents but not domiciled in Ireland will generally be taxed on:
Irish-sourced income: Just like any other Irish tax resident.
Foreign income or gains: This is only taxed if the income or proceeds are remitted (brought) into Ireland.
This means that if you have income from abroad, you don’t necessarily have to pay Irish tax on it unless you bring it into Ireland. If you are keeping your foreign income abroad, you are likely in the clear for Irish tax, at least for now.
For example, if you purchase a holiday home in Spain before moving to Ireland and later sell it, the profits from the sale of that property might only be taxed in Ireland if the proceeds are brought into Ireland.
How Does the Remittance Work?
Remittance doesn’t just apply when foreign income is brought into Ireland. Even if foreign funds come into Ireland via indirect routes, like transferring money to cover Irish living expenses (think: credit card payments or paying rent), those funds count as a remittance and may be subject to Irish tax.
The key takeaway: only remitted foreign income is taxed. A remittance of income earned before 1 January in the year you became tax resident in Ireland should be regarded as a remittance of capital and therefore is not liable to Irish Income tax.
However, the way remittances are treated can get a little tricky when you’re dealing with accounts that hold both capital and income (often referred to as a "mixed fund").
Mixed Fund Accounts and Tax Implications
When remittances come from an account that includes both capital (money that you accumulated before becoming an Irish tax resident) and income (money earned after becoming a tax resident), Irish Revenue will assume the money is coming from the income element first. This could mean that part of your remittance is taxable, even if some of the money is capital you accumulated before your move.
To avoid this, it's highly recommended to keep capital and income in separate foreign bank accounts. This ensures that any money you bring into Ireland from your capital funds is not liable to Irish tax.
How to Make the Remittance Basis Work for You
If you are not Irish-domiciled, before you make the move to Ireland, here are a few steps to take to reduce your exposure to Irish taxation and enjoy the benefits of the remittance basis of the system:
Separate Your Capital from Your Income: Before you become an Irish tax resident, move your capital (i.e., wealth accumulated before moving) into a separate, designated bank account or investment account. This way, you can bring these funds into Ireland free of tax.
Keep Income and Capital in Different Bank Accounts: Arrange for any income paid on the capital account to be credited to a separate bank account so that remittances can be made to Ireland from the capital account free of tax as remittance from mixed accounts will be assumed to be from the income portion first and therefore may be liable to Irish income tax.
Review Your Investments: Some foreign investments might not qualify for the remittance basis of tax. It is worth reviewing your portfolio to make sure your assets are structured in the most tax-efficient way.
Consider methods to finance expenditure in Ireland: By evaluating future income streams and spending demands, the best way to finance spending in Ireland is usually to combine remitting capital (funds accumulated before becoming Irish tax resident) with foreign income (which is taxable if remitted to Ireland but if remitted at a lower level may be covered by personal allowances or taxed as low rates). It is generally preferable to bring in a small amount of income and a small amount of capital each year as opposed to living solely from capital funds for the first few years if the intention is to stay in Ireland for the long term, as the remittance of significant amounts of income in later years once the capital funds have been exhausted, may result in higher income tax liabilities.
Consider Gifting Assets: If you are thinking about gifting foreign assets to family members, doing so before you become an Irish tax resident (or within the first five years) may keep the gift outside the charge to Irish Gift Tax.
Currency Conversion: Don’t forget that exchange rates can affect the value of your remittances.
https://www.taxkey.ie/post/relocating-to-ireland-tax |
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06-01-26 panasonic
Recorded a cnbc interview with someone that says job market won't suffer a collapse, I had to go, so will watch it later.
To me, all goes down to how hard will be to find sources of income, no crisis no problem. |
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06-01-26 savo
carib.. I guess there is an easier and perfectly legal solution: remit a significant amount (say 1MM €) BEFORE taking up residence
that may not be necessary as:
Cash and capital acquired in bank accounts before you became an Irish tax resident can be brought into Ireland at any time completely tax-free.
AI
Crucial Conditions for Tax-Free Transfer
Pre-Residency Origin: The funds must have been earned or acquired before January 1 of the tax year you became an Irish resident
Avoid Mixed Accounts: If you blend pre-residency capital with post-residency income or capital gains in the same account, the Irish Revenue enforces strict ordering rules. Any money you bring into Ireland is automatically deemed to come from the taxable income portion first
Documentation: You must maintain detailed records and documentation to prove to the Irish Revenue that the funds being transferred are indeed pre-residency capital
Because the remittance basis of taxation and the definition of "clean capital" are highly complex, it is strongly advised to consult an Irish-qualified tax professional to properly structure your accounts before you trigger your Irish tax residency |
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06-01-26 panasonic
| Tks Carib, FT has a paywall, UK reviving wealth tax? |
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06-01-26 carib
Panas:
https://www.ft.com/content/0194916f-c741-417d-94c8-b87aa437aee2?utm_source=chatgpt.com&syn-25a6b1a6=1
precisely as you were discussing during the week-end: the issue is moving out, for laggards.. |
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06-01-26 pillz
Nvidia Enters Windows Laptop Market, Taking On Intel and AMD
Nvidia is taking another run at the personal computer processor market after being part of an effort that fizzled out over a decade ago. |
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06-01-26 carib
| Savo: I suppose that is correct, about Ireland and elsewhere. Of course, there is CRS reporting, so if money is flowing out of reportable foreign accounts they see it, and can ask for documentation. Obviously one can use corporate credit cards debited to unreportable entity accounts.But if one plans to actually spend little time there, I guess there is an easier and perfectly legal solution: remit a significant amount (say 1MM €) BEFORE taking up residence, duly pay taxes on the interest of such amount, and deplete slowly the capital to fund local expenses. On the top of that, actually remit a small annual sum for decency. |
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05-31-26 savo
carib.. from what they tell me remittances do not need to be "remitted"... as spending locally with foreign debit or credit cards is considered remittance...
I doubt the tax office asks for the card statements...meaning you can declare whatever you want..say euros 50k... and pay standard taxes on 50 k...which according to PWC tax calculator will be 20%... 10k
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05-31-26 carib
| Savo: that might well be correct.. because jurisdictions have and advantage in taking wealthy people as tax residents.. even if they actually are not. Like Cat 2 in Gib.. |
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05-31-26 carib
ft
Two closely followed surveys from Bank of America show that institutional investors just notched up their biggest monthly drop in cash allocations for two years and their biggest leap ever in allocations to equities. Cash now makes up 3.9 per cent of their assets. Private clients — individuals with at least $3mn in investable assets, for whom the US bank manages $4.5tn — have less than 10 per cent of their assets in cash, too. That is the lowest since the survey began.
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05-31-26 savo
spal... on circularity...
and this is one example... the sector is full of them... there is not enough money in the planet that can fund all these trillions invested in equipment that will be obsolete in 5 years...
Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.
Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.
He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.
Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.
Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.
Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.
But here is what Burry is flagging.
Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.
They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.
Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.
Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.
Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.
Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.
Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.
When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.
The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.
Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.
Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.
Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.
The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.
Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.
- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.
https://x.com/bulltheoryio/status/2061029970236133554
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05-31-26 savo
from what somebody i trust told me... they do not count days...and do not care how much you spend as long as you remit something...
just another option... |
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05-31-26 carib
| Jurisdictions that require just "centre of vital interests" for tax residency are IMHO better. |
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05-31-26 carib
Savo: True, but ireland is not only rainy, but IMHO also expensive, lately, and one would need to spend over 6 months a year there.
I prefer sunnier climates. |
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05-31-26 savo
for those that do not mind the rain:
IRELAND
A non-dom living in Ireland under the remittance tax regime pays Irish tax only on income earned within Ireland and is not liable for taxation on income from foreign sources unless those funds are remitted to Ireland.
Non-doms are still required to pay the standard applicable tax rates on earnings arising within Ireland.
Remittances from income are subject to Irish income tax, whereas remittances from capital are not. Funds accumulated from non-employment income prior to arriving in Ireland are classfied as capital rather than income and are therefore excluded from remittance basis taxation.
Non-doms in Ireland may continue to enjoy their special status and the remittance basis taxation inde nitely, provided they take care not to become domiciled. This contrasts positively with the UK’s system, in which the maximum term is 15 years.
The non-dom’s foreign-source income does not need to arise from a country with which Ireland has a dual tax agreement.
Unlike in the UK, there is no prescribed length of time during which an individual must not have been a tax resident in Ireland prior to becoming a remittance basis tax resident.
Which categories of income qualify for reduced taxation?
Foreign-source income not remitted to Ireland is fully exempt from taxation. However, individuals should exercise caution with certaino offshore fund investments, as these may have specfic tax implications.
Irish-source income and any foreign income remitted to Ireland are taxed at the standard domestic rates.
Non-doms become subject to Irish gift and inheritance tax on non-Irish assets after five years of tax residency. However, it is possible to extend this exemption beyond five years by taking specfic steps in consultation with a quali ed tax advisor. |
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05-31-26 savo
apparently the dutch government is backtracking
backtracking for the time.. until the re-table it...
reminds me of abortion in irland...
AI:
Ireland held six referendums on the issue of abortion over a 35-year period before finally passing legislation to legalize it in 2018.
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05-31-26 panasonic
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05-31-26 carib
Is capital taxation the next likely item on the fiscal agenda?
Yes, it is likely to be.. and I wrote that here already a decade ago.
Is it going to be global and leak proof?
Very unlikely, IMHO.
Are there countermeasures to be taken?
Yes, there are, and having taken them decades ago was prudent.
Again, IMHO. |
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05-31-26 carib
Panas: I posted about the new dutch capital tax.. time ago, the day it happened. Now apparently the dutch government is backtracking.
That said, the question remains: should we stay out of high tax jurisdictions?
My answer was: yes, we should.. since the end of the last century.
This has little to do with Davos, IMHO. |
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05-31-26 panasonic
| The revolution is happening, political outcome to be delivered, not a Marie Antoiniette decapitation kind of revolution :-) |
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05-31-26 panasonic
Carib, if you think Davos model won't collapse, we'll find great places to move.
I already posted, my family is aware of it and will move if necessary, but not before facts.
Now, Davos Model is not exclusive to USA, did you read Savo's post abt. Netherlands? will the effect of consumption collapse stay inside USA borders?
My goal is to read other colores scenarios, mine is only one of many. |
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05-31-26 carib
| PPS: currently, in the US congress, the number of extreme right loonies is at least 20 times bigger than the number of extreme left loonies, so the formers are a much greater concern than the latters. |
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05-31-26 carib
| PS: the concept that the wealthy will become both wealthier and more powerful (because they control data).. and that they will be suddenly get overpowered by a revolution of descamisados..globally.. I find it hard to grasp. |
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05-31-26 carib
Panas: again.. I am lost. If you imagine the USA will be soon run by extreme left socialists.. then the US capital market will be hit seriously, and the remedy is getting out of there before that happens. As neither of us is American, this would be no big deal personally. I personally do not expect such a development, and if it was to happen it will take time.
If the USA will not become communist.. then we have no problem. The idea that the world will be dominated by billionaires.. but those people will have no political influence in any of the 150+ countries in the world.. I find absurd. |
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05-31-26 panasonic
Carib, if assets do not become a target of those without capital (nor brains), me have no worries at all, can spend the rest of my life in the current tax system which I signed for.
Tools to track people with capital will be there, probability those who push the use of such tools are elected is very high near 100% in my opinion, what number do you have in mind?
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05-31-26 carib
| Panas: I see a contradiction.. If AI will be good for people with good capital and good brains.. maybe inequality will increase.. but why are you worried for your welfare, given you have both capital and brains? |
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05-31-26 panasonic
| Leo, given that well paid jobs will be replaced by AI, what is your view on the consumption side? |
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05-31-26 leopardo
It will be An age of great prosperity for Whom has
capital to allocate into equities, not necesseraly AI stocks.
Everything(almost) will Gain from productivity growth.
The one Who does not have capital and loses his job
Will be in Trouble.
Greater inequality I share the view. |
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05-31-26 panasonic
Carib, inequality will become even more chronic.
My top priority is keep capital risk @lowest possible levels, inflation won't be easy to beat without considerable risk, have plenty room to reduce expenses...any dollar gone will be extremely hard to replace.
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05-31-26 panasonic
| Carib, you may not delegate directly, but the guy that manages money will. |
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05-31-26 carib
Should Colores delegate to AI the allocation and management of their capital?
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05-31-26 carib
| What will be the effect of AI availability for people with capital versus people without capital? |
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05-31-26 panasonic
"remaining staff shift to complex escalations"
Not for long, AI babies are growing very fast.
If they can replace an Engineer in Top tech companies, complex escalations are piece of cake.
AI will know exactly who is calling, how much would cost to lose the client, or the cost of a legal fight vs pay the claim, sharp decisions without component of human emotions on the claim at hand.
Right now human call centers don't solve problems, they kick the can as far as possible, why? bcz operator works from home and charge by minutes on the phone, not by case.
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05-31-26 panasonic
"immigrants have physically reengineered the exit from the airport"
...and will certainly wait outside the airport for self-driven taxis to smash them. |
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05-31-26 panasonic
"This compresses career ladders: fewer juniors are needed for the traditional "grind" work that built experience. However, top performers and senior roles with judgment, interpersonal skills, and accountability are seeing strong productivity gains".
I agree, is it fair to conclude that lawyers will have less cases but compensated by higher margins?
....
"Bottom Line on Labor Impact, AI is displacing routine, structured cognitive tasks more than entire jobs."
The perfect fuel for pinkitos project. |
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05-31-26 spal
Ranked AI Uses (by Enterprise Adoption Scale & Economic
Ranking is based on 2026 data from McKinsey, Gartner, IDC, and others — ordered by percentage of enterprises deploying the use case and contribution to real spending/revenue.
Customer Service & Support (Chatbots, Agents, Ticket Automation)
~56% of enterprises use AI here — the single most common production use case. AI handles first-line queries, refunds, escalations, and basic troubleshooting via chat/voice agents. Agentic systems now resolve many tickets autonomously.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Tier-1 customer service representatives (up to 40–55% of routine interactions automated). Many call-center and front-line support roles are reduced or eliminated; remaining staff shift to complex escalations.
Software Development & Code Generation
~48% of enterprises use AI for coding assistance, debugging, boilerplate, and pull requests (e.g., GitHub Copilot, Cursor, Claude Code).
Labor displaced/reshaped: Junior/entry-level software engineers and developers — routine coding tasks that once built experience are now automated. Companies need fewer bodies for the same output; focus shifts to architecture and orchestration. This is a classic top-down effect.
Content Creation & Marketing (Writing, Images, Personalization)
~44–48% adoption. AI generates emails, reports, social posts, marketing copy, images, and personalized campaigns.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Commodity-level content writers, copywriters, graphic designers, and junior marketers. One senior creator + AI can replace output of several juniors. Strategic/creative direction roles expand.
Data Analysis, Research & Knowledge Management
Widespread in business intelligence, search, summarization, and insight generation.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Basic financial analysts, researchers, administrative staff, and data entry clerks. Routine modeling, reporting, and information-gathering tasks shrink dramatically.
IT Operations & Cybersecurity
~51% adoption for anomaly detection, threat response, and system maintenance.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Routine IT support and basic security monitoring roles. Junior analysts shift to higher-level strategy and oversight.
Healthcare (Admin, Documentation, Diagnostic Support)
Fast-growing in patient messaging, transcription, initial diagnostics, and radiology support.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Medical transcriptionists/admin staff and junior residents (fewer repetitive cases for training). Doctors become more productive on complex cases; final liability stays human.
Finance, Accounting & Wealth Management
Invoice processing, forecasting, portfolio modeling, compliance, and basic advisory.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Bookkeepers, paraplanners, data-entry financial roles, and junior analysts. Advisors save 2–3 hours/day on admin and focus on client relationships and complex judgment.
Legal & Document Review
Contract analysis, e-discovery, drafting, and compliance checks.
Labor displaced/reshaped: Paralegals and junior associates (document churn automated). Senior lawyers handle more strategic work and see higher billable output.
Emerging fast (rising in 2026): Agentic AI (autonomous agents) across functions like supply chain, HR, sales, and R&D — 31% of enterprises now have at least one in production, with rapid scaling in banking/insurance.
Bottom Line on Labor ImpactAI is displacing routine, structured cognitive tasks more than entire jobs — especially at the entry- and mid-level in white-collar professions (the opposite of historical bottom-up automation).
This compresses career ladders: fewer juniors are needed for the traditional "grind" work that built experience. However, top performers and senior roles with judgment, interpersonal skills, and accountability are seeing strong productivity gains (often 30–50%+ on measurable tasks) and wage premiums for AI fluency.
I find it hard to disagree with these observations.
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05-31-26 spal
At early stages of Uber, I remember a big brawl in highway from CDG to Paris Center, taxi drivers decided to take things in their hands, and smashed Uber cars.
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All I know is that the immigrants have physically reengineered the exit from the airport and try to corral you to their own stands of gypsy taxis ... they have their own laminated ID cards etc ... but take one of them and you'll pay 200-400 Euros instead of the flat $56 Euro charge of an official taxi. If you can find one.
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05-31-26 spal
Savo - the numbers I attempted to survey were actual spending, not projected and as far as possible not circular.
I am not a natural evangelist either here, just attempting to understand something that is moving fast.
Others have made the parallels between fibre and then the glut and then the transformation. We could see some of that also. I do not see it as snake oil though and like the internet if it first "busts" and then gets institutionalized that saids more about capitalism and how it works then anything else.
Pattern recognition, ingestion of vast data and then the ability to make classifications and resolve individual cases, enhancing research, automating routines etc etc all are significantly transformed and enhanced. For instance in law - 90% of lawyers report using it. I think the same would be said for many other routines (accounting, wealth management, media ... it goes on).
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05-31-26 Merlino
To put 1.44 Exaflops in perspective: If every single human being on Earth did one math calculation every second, 24 hours a day, it would take the entire global population nearly 6 years to calculate what this single black rack can compute in one single second.
...............................
...and to think that it still takes either to me or to my wife about 15 minutes to prepare our usual freshly grounded black coffee, bacon and eggs breakfast...it looks AI has not arrived yet to our home |
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05-31-26 panasonic
Spal, Fortress model is my wish, pinkitos model has a better chance to prevail.
At early stages of Uber, I remember a big brawl in highway from CDG to Paris Center, taxi drivers decided to take things in their hands, and smashed Uber cars.
Later stage, many taxi drivers became Uber, that was then.
AI times both taxi and Uber drivers will have very little options if any. |
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05-31-26 savo
on a more vernacular note...
XME from 55 to 125 over the las 12 months
JP:
Supply disappointments and disruptions swell once again, supporting a higher-for-longer zinc price despite still-lifeless demand. Zinc prices have remained much more buoyant than our previous expectations, pushing towards $3,600/mt, amid a rapid deterioration in the supply outlook year-to-date and a generally supportive base metals price backdrop amid rallies in aluminum (supply disruption), nickel (cost escalation) and copper (arb-driven pull between the US and China). Despite continued lackluster demand, a reversal of last year’s robust mine supply growth this year has cut almost 300 kmt out of our global refined zinc production forecasts in 2026, driving a similarly sized tightening in the global zinc balance, which we now see at about a 130 kmt surplus in 2026. Yet this global balance significantly hides the bifurcation in the market, where ex-China markets are considerably tight while in China visible inventories continue to grow as demand weakness persists while smelter supply remains more than ample. |
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05-31-26 savo
spal... i presume all those posting were written by same ai you use...
read them all... i do not see anything new ..same lingo we read every day from bank anals...AI will replace a lot of people... AI consumes consumes a lot of resources... financial and otherwise... AI is bigger than..etc...
but reinforces my point .. from a financial standpoint... the market values AI in terms of spending... the more it spends the more valuable it is... and because it is circular and reduced to a few names... somebody's spending is somebody else's revenue..and so the merry-round goes..
as always some people well connected arrive early...make a lot money out of it... the rest arrive late to the party and lose it all.
I guess from my limited perspective the easiest play for me should be copper.
But when this thing explodes... and the manual is re-written (by some AI) copper may halve in price...
Anyway.. i stick to what I know... bonds..at my age i do not much to be happy.
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05-31-26 pillz
| But internet is free, and a lot of C° make big money on internet , may by it will be the same with AI ?? |
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05-31-26 pillz
incidentally... i used AI several times today... didn't pay a cent...
I hope those forecasting trillions of income know how to find better customers than me.
//
same here ???? |
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05-31-26 amateur
Dont lose your sleep about the AI bubble bursting. Everything will be fine.
Peter Thiel is movimg to Argentina. |
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05-31-26 spal
Davos has died. The future is less about raw, explosive hostility and more about cold, transactional containment.
The borderless global map of the Davos era replaces itself with three massive, technologically isolated economic gravity wells.
Borders don't vanish, but the underlying infrastructure behind them completely decouples.
💎 The Fortress Americas Well: The US, Canada, and parts of Latin America (like Argentina and Mexico) form a hyper-insulated, self-contained loop. This zone controls the world's primary energy surplus, the deepest pools of private credit, and the elite intellectual property of the AI Nation.
💎 The Euro-Bloc Well: Europe operates as a highly regulated tech-enclave. Desperate to protect its social democracies, it relies on strict data compliance and carbon-border adjustment taxes to prevent being economically steamrolled by American algorithmic power and cheap Chinese hardware.
💎 The Pan-Asian Statist Well: A China-led axis, anchored by alternative network architectures and bilateral BRICS currency corridors. They trade heavily within their own sphere using the "ersatz dollar" clearing systems, prioritizing state-directed manufacturing over open capital flows.
Interactions between these wells are stripped of all ideological pretense.
There are no more open-ended trade treaties - only blunt, transactional commodity swaps. We will trade you high-compute Blackwell silicon allocations if you trade us direct, un-blockaded access to raw copper and lithium. |
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05-31-26 spal
| The world doesn’t descend into a chaotic, Mad Max-style dystopia. Instead, it transitions into what historians call a "Fragmented Peace"—a multi-layered, highly managed global architecture that feels normal on the surface but operates under completely rewritten rules underneath. |
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05-31-26 spal
"True sovereignty in the 21st century comes down to who owns the foundational chokepoints of global industry. While the world races to build digital infrastructure and automated factories, the underlying reality is one of Asymmetric Leverage. Between the Foreign Direct Product Rule controlling advanced chip manufacturing and the deep liquidity of the U.S. financial system, the U.S. has built an un-replicable, self-sustaining ecosystem. The macro trend isn't just about deglobalization; it's about a superpower realizing it possesses the internal energy, capital, and algorithmic tools to drive its own future without being a hostage to foreign supply chains."
No Kumbaya ... No "we are the world" ... |
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05-31-26 spal
The future belongs to the Technocratic Fortress.
The U.S. is successfully leveraging its control over the AI, its domestic energy independence, and its financial depth to pull up the drawbridge.
Meanwhile, autocracies are forced to build heavily managed domestic alternatives within their own spheres of influence.
The luxury of elite globalist consensus is officially over; the era of raw, sovereign algorithmic power has begun.
Trump has said it already ... we don't need anyone. |
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05-31-26 spal
The Davos Model relies fundamentally on comparative advantage and corporate-led global arbitrage: Design in California, assemble in Asia, optimize corporate tax structures in Europe. This setup required low-friction borders.
AI disrupts this arbitrage by shifting the primary economic driver from cheap foreign labor and financialized offshoring to localized algorithmic power.
AI allows advanced economies to reshore manufacturing, software development, and services via extreme automation. Developing nations can no longer reliably use the "cheap labor" ladder to climb out of poverty.
The open, collaborative public-private partnerships championed at the World Economic Forum are incompatible with an environment where the U.S. Department of Commerce uses the Foreign Direct Product Rule to unilaterally gatekeep advanced silicon. AI forces a shift from borderless "stakeholder cooperation" to survivalist "chokepoint diplomacy." |
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05-31-26 spal
Amigo ... the core architectural flaw of the Davos Model (stakeholder capitalism and borderless integration) was its naive, end-of-history assumption that economic integration would inevitably export Western liberal democracy. Instead, globalized capitalism acted as a wealth-generation engine that autocracies and statist regimes effectively co-opted to fuel an era of aggressive neo-statism. Take that utter waste of space at the head of the WHO as a prime example ...
By prioritizing global public-private supply chains over domestic social cohesion, Western elites alienated their own polities. This neglect triggered internal populist revolts, discredited institutional leadership, and opened the door for external counters like BRICS and localized de-dollarization pushes.
When you inject the dual realities of generative AI and the structural shift toward "Fortress America," the traditional Davos Model utterly collapses.
It is being replaced by a highly fragmented, zero-sum global order. |
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05-31-26 panasonic
Spal, good post, "tool" wise that is how powerful the mutation promises to be...in your opinion, will Davos Model survive or collapse?
Definition of Davos Model (and variants) from Gemini:
Developing countries cannot be said to function uniformly under a "Davos model." While wealthy, advanced economies are deeply integrated into the global capitalism and public-private partnerships championed by the World Economic Forum, they exhibit vastly different economic, political, and social architectures.
The concept of the "Davos model"—or "stakeholder capitalism"—proposes that governments and corporations collaborate to manage public issues, allowing private industry to drive agile governance while social/environmental concerns are handled alongside traditional profits.
Nuances defining the application of this model include:Variations Among Developed Nations: Not all developed countries operate under the same economic philosophy. The U.S. leans heavily toward free-market capitalism, whereas European nations typically embrace robust social democracies with stronger labor protections, higher taxation, and comprehensive welfare states.
Corporate vs. State Power: Critics argue the Davos model places too much power in the hands of corporate and financial elites at the expense of democratic processes. While this is visible in lobbying and policy-making within wealthy nations, domestic regulations and antitrust laws function to check this power to varying degrees.
Geopolitics and Globalization: The idealized Davos model relies on global integration and free trade. However, many developed countries are actively shifting toward protectionism, industrial policies, and reshoring supply chains to protect domestic industries and national security |
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05-31-26 spal
92% of legal professionals now use AI (up from 69% in 2025).
... for example I am not a lawyer (although I play one AI) ... I recently redrafted a 1959 easement for one of my properties and am happy that title files it with the country land office ... no lawyer involved.
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05-31-26 spal
A Schpalian Intuitive Reframing:
If a normal country's GDP is like a diversified portfolio of steady but average-return assets, the AI "economy" is like owning the highest-conviction, highest-upside venture bets in the portfolio plus the strategic assets that make the whole system run better. It punches above its direct spending weight because:It is enabling technology — like electricity or the internet, but accelerating faster.
The proprietary moats and prestige create asymmetric upside (and some risks, such as concentration or uneven diffusion). Early ROI debates exist (some hyperscalers face questions on near-term returns), yet the strategic and spillover nature makes it far more consequential than raw dollar-for-dollar GDP equivalence suggests.
In short, treating AI spending as "just another country's economy" misses that this is frontier, high-leverage activity with the potential to rewire productivity, innovation, and power structures across the global economy — exactly as we discussed with mega-clusters, supply-chain chokepoints, and sovereign strategies.
It's not just big; it's foundational.
The dog's may bark, but the Silicon Caravan moves on ...
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05-31-26 panasonic
Savo, the client is the one that substitutes a paid job, those will pay.
True, previous revolutions closed doors while others opened, substitution was bottom up, a wooden loom (manually operated) was replaced by weaving machines i.e.
This time is top down, high earners are main target to be replaced.
Engineers, Doctors, Lawyers, wealth managers...how that plays in your opinion? |
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05-31-26 spal
Schpal's "AI nation"
2025 actual global AI spending: Approximately $1.76 trillion (Gartner baseline figure, with heavy weighting toward realized infrastructure and enterprise outlays).
This alone makes the “AI nation” comparable in economic scale to South Korea (projected GDP ~$1.93 trillion in recent 2026 estimates) or approaching Australia/Spain (~$2.1 trillion range). It would rank roughly in the global top 12–15 economies.
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05-31-26 spal
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05-31-26 spal
If AI were a country, its “economy” (total annual spending on AI infrastructure, software, services, models, and related activity) would already be roughly the size of South Korea — and is on track in 2026 to approach the scale of Italy or Canada.
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05-31-26 spal
NVIDIA’s single quarter of AI chip sales ($75B) is roughly equivalent to the entire annual global box-office revenue of the movie industry (pre-pandemic peaks) — or more than the yearly revenue of major companies like Salesforce or Adobe.
Microsoft’s $37B AI run-rate is comparable to the annual revenue of a Fortune 100 consumer goods giant like Nike or Coca-Cola’s core business.
Combined major AI pure-plays (OpenAI + Anthropic run-rates ~$55B) already rival the annual revenue of a large software leader like Adobe or Autodesk — and they achieved this in roughly 3 years from near-zero.
2025 full-year AI infrastructure spend ($318B actual) is on the scale of global venture capital deployment in a strong year or roughly the annual R&D budget of the entire pharmaceutical industry worldwide.
In enterprise terms, this wave of real paid subscriptions and cloud commitments is moving money at a pace comparable to the early cloud computing boom (AWS/Azure/GCP combined) but compressed into far fewer years and concentrated in fewer winners.
Bottom line (real-money view): AI uptake is no longer experimental
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05-31-26 spal
Global AI spending is projected to hit $2.59 trillion in 2026 — a 47% increase year-over-year. This includes infrastructure, software, services, and models. Enterprises are a big driver, with generative AI and agentic AI (autonomous systems) seeing particularly fast growth. Roughly 72% of enterprises now have at least one AI workload in production, and 88% use AI in at least one business function. Worker access to AI tools rose ~50% in 2025 alone.
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05-31-26 spal
I am paying modestly for AI ... I already blew past the free version. So far I think I am getting good value.
Co's and states are big users already. We'll see where it goes. |
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