09-07-26 carib
Merlino: I guess cheapest solution is negative real rates.
(in the absence of a real DOGE) |
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09-07-26 Merlino
There will always be a rate at which USTs are sold... because it is difficult to imagine de US defaulting in nominal terms.
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I humbly think the problem is increased bcz there is way too much corp and (perhaps) personal debt in the system....this load will likely have to be reduced in real terms sooner or later...when?....how will they do it?....deflation, defaults and bankruptcies...or...higher inflation and negative real rates?....I do not know |
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09-07-26 Merlino
I think the AfD won in that Land, and should be allowed to form a local government.There are french towns with a RN mayor, and the sky has not fallen. Very few actual changes, as a matter of fact.
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Gate keeping parties (like Vox, original M5S, etc) formed to canalize voters dissatisfaction, I (cynically) presume |
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09-07-26 carib
I think the AfD won in that Land, and should be allowed to form a local government.There are french towns with a RN mayor, and the sky has not fallen. Very few actual changes, as a matter of fact.
Ciotti is mayor of Nice, but not much changed there after he changed party. |
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09-07-26 savo
spal..USTs are a complex issue... it is not only about volume but about rates too.
If the US would want to sell 10 year bonds at 2%.. they would not find any buyers... so they sell them at 4.5%...and then they find buyers.
The fact that rates go up means less buyers are interested and higher rates have to be offered.
If they US would offer 10 years at 8% there would be more buyers than at 4.5%... and so on.
There will always be a rate at which USTs are sold... because it is difficult to imagine de US defaulting in nominal terms. The default happens via the losing purchasing power of the dollar.
So investors need protection and demand higher rates.
I am not saying anything you do not know... simply refreshing it.
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09-07-26 savo
Billionaire hedge fund manager Chris Rokos is preparing to leave the UK and move his residency to Greece, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that highlights Greece’s growing appeal to ultra wealthy investors.
Rokos, founder and chief investment officer of Rokos Capital Management, is expected to establish a presence in Athens as part of the move, according to reports by the Financial Times and Bloomberg.
The reported relocation comes as wealthy individuals reassess their tax residency following changes to the UK’s tax system and concerns about potential future tax increases.
https://greekcitytimes.com/2026/09/08/chris-rokos-leaving-uk-for-greece-athens/ |
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09-07-26 spal
Foreign investors still buy plenty of Treasuries, but who is buying has flipped
https://www.briefs.co/news/foreign-investors-still-buy-plenty-of-treasuries-but-who-is/#:~:text=Back%20in%20the%20GFC%20era%2C%20foreign%20central,foreign%20cohort.%20Country%20detail%20tells%20the%20story. |
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09-07-26 spal
| Savo - on the UK - this is sad ... I really enjoy being here nonetheless. |
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09-07-26 spal
| Strange debate then Savo when total foreign holdings of US debt keep hitting record highs. Journos gotta be journos. |
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09-07-26 savo
| the UK is irreversibly lost... gone. |
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09-07-26 spal
Several individual local councils across the UK—including London boroughs like Croydon and Birmingham outside London—have issued Section 114 notices (the local government equivalent of declaring bankruptcy)
So apparently he was half right. |
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09-07-26 spal
| So according to my cab driver (normally an interesting measure) London is going broke under Sadiq Khan. The particular cabbie in fact ran as a Reform Candidate. Personally London property is now irredeemably un-investable - far more economic simply to come over as a visitor. Still a great place to visit, but I'd take this guy at face value for his warning to the middle class. I don't think he sees a clear future for his young children at this point. I'll get to monitor how it goes as long as my recently married son and his lovely bride hang around here. |
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09-07-26 savo
spal... FWIW i think the debate has shifted... now it is about the funding of the debt.
Not many buyers around interested in buying USTs other than Bessent and the Fed.
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09-07-26 spal
The 17 BRICS declarations demonstrate that while member states like complaining about U.S. financial hegemony, they remain structurally locked into the dollar system and lack the internal cohesion, liquid financial markets, or trust required to launch a viable alternative reserve asset.
... plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
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09-07-26 spal
BRICS
The claim here is narrower than that, and it is worth stating precisely so you can judge it precisely. As a group, acting as a bloc, they have not built the machinery that would be required to make a material change to the dollar system.
https://research.santiagocapital.com/p/i-read-all-17-brics-declarations |
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09-07-26 victor
savo, looks like the extreme-left BSW party will abstain, so the AfD can form govt.
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09-07-26 savo
victor.. i am not a fan of any political party anywhere in the world.
I am a fun of certain political/economic ideas and against others. |
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09-07-26 victor
savo, are you a fan of the AfD?
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09-07-26 savo
good video...
https://x.com/RippleXrpie/status/2096580990772687048/video/1 |
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09-07-26 savo
🚨HOLY SMOKES! 🇩🇪 GERMANY's “AfD”ALICE WEIDEL ANNOUNCES THE ABOLITION OF THE EU ONCE THEY WIN THE UPCOMING ELECTION:
"We will LEAVE the European Union. We don’t need the EU. We will send back ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, and increase BORDER SECURITY." |
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09-07-26 savo
It still baffles me that a party that emphasizes:
- sovereignty
- stricter migration control (and remigration of illegals)
- lower taxes and a leaner government
- ending Germany's current energy/climate policies
- Swiss-style popular referendums on major laws
- limits on party financing and career politicians
- free-list voting so voters choose individual candidates
- a directly elected federal president
- rule of law
- separation of powers
- the state should serve citizens rather than the reverse
- EU of sovereign nation-states rather than a federal superstate
- opposing sending weapons or troops to Ukraine
- negotiated peace that accounts for Russia's security concerns
- a neutral Ukraine outside NATO and EU
- restore economic ties with Russia
is labeled as "far right". Where I'm from, that just called conservative or even common sense.
https://x.com/RuffledCanary/status/2096686764652216707 |
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09-07-26 savo
🇺🇦🇷🇺 According to the Ukrainian media “Glavkom” the new Trump peace plan brought by Kushner & Witkoff is total surrender in front of Russia:
- Complete ceasefire
- Withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas and Zaporizhzhia Oblast with possible deployment of UN contingent there
- Ukraine's non-aligned status and renouncing NATO accession
- Referendum and elections
- Constitutional amendments
- Kyiv renouncing the forcible return of territories that would come under Russian control
- Limitations on the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
- Agreements on language issues
- The signing of a full-fledged peace treaty by the new Ukrainian government, followed by ratification through a special procedure at the UN. |
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09-07-26 spaldo
Former Federal Minister Thomas de Maizière (72, CDU) has described the AfD as a "party of hope" following its victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state election—though not in a positive sense. The experienced politician offers an alarming forecast: "A profound shift! I am mentally preparing myself for the fact that the AfD will govern in one way or another. How that comes about is something that can be discussed over the coming days. I am bracing myself for the worse-case scenario. This also implies a total transformation of our cooperative federalism. Democratic political clashes are going to become more uncomfortable."
The former minister warned: “This result is part of a global struggle over populism—over the future. The AfD has succeeded not only in rallying protest and the disaffected but—and I say this reluctantly—the AfD has become a party of hope!”
This hope, much like that associated with French far-right politician Marine Le Pen (58), is directed at the idea that “we can be a country that remains as undisturbed as possible by the world’s problems.” Yet the second hope held by these politicians and their voters, the minister continued, is this: “If we only want it enough, we can be the way we believe we once were.” This path leads “either to isolation or to the denial of complexity,” for “prosperity is only possible through engagement with the world.”
"Freedom means responsibility in the world," the CDU politician explained. "Change is necessary, complicated, and can also be painful. We have to face these debates—and not just with headlines asking if you’re for the EU or against it, for NATO, for peace, or for democracy. We need to spell out exactly what that means in substantive terms!"
"Whatever happens in the coming days, there will be a government under AfD leadership," de Maizière predicted. "The BSW is for sale and will do whatever it takes to help the AfD gain power. I fear it will be a takeover on velvet paws—an attempt to shed their unsavory image. The AfD talks about unity, while we Christian Democrats are suddenly cast as the ones causing division. Arguing against the AfD will become even harder because they’ll try to shake off that image of the enemy. It’s a clever tactic, and it poses a particular challenge for us and the other parties."
The former minister firmly rejected suggestions—even from within his own party—that they should now cooperate with the election winners: "We’d have to be out of our minds to help the AfD into the saddle!" He dismissed the idea that there might be "any defectors" as "crazy." In closing, he reiterated that the AfD had "evolved into a party of hope"—and a cheerful one at that. "And someone who is cheerful doesn't inspire fear. The rest of us are all so dour. Politics needs to be more optimistic!"
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09-06-26 savo
the iranian regime killed 40.000 of its own subjects this spring
carib.. you do not have to convince me about the evilness of the iranian regime... those fuckers put two bombs in central Baires killing hundreds of people.
However, the indiscriminate bombing of civilian and economic infrastructure, schools, weddings and hospitals makes the US a Satanist State. |
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09-06-26 pillz
In the overall ranking for girls, Avigail was followed by Miriam, Lia, Libi, Tamar, Yael, Ayala, Sarah, Ella, and Naya.
//
I know a few Ayala in Israel... |
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09-06-26 pillz
Options are less risky, max loss is a premium.
Day trading to keep.me busy.
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same here , but I think I take more risk then you, but ytd, I am already more then 20% gain ... and I can control the risk .. |
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09-06-26 carib
| Mohammed was the most common name among boys across Israel’s general population, followed by Ariel, Yosef, Adam, David, Omer, Rafael, Lavi, Michael, and Eitan. |
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09-06-26 panasonic
Pilly, right now I'm trying to lock interes rates and live from that, we all had years of zirp and taking risks.
Options are less risky, max loss is a premium.
Day trading to keep.me busy. |
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09-06-26 Merlino
| https://www.eluniversal.com/el-universal/240771/presidente-trump-necesitamos-mas-nabeps |
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09-06-26 pillz
| if I remember well I sold them between 12 and 15 $ |
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09-06-26 pillz
| and of cause I sold way to early :-( |
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09-06-26 pillz
| there was a time that Ford mini notes traded at 2.5$ , most of my portfolio was of those minis, as Ford had 20B$ cash ...and don't needed the US to help them ,,,, this was the time of the mini blonds ... |
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09-06-26 panasonic
Carib, to recap:
1) Large holding of something like aaple, worth holding not worth go thru w/h hassle.
2) Solid investment, say JPM prefs., yield 6%, not even worth holding.
3) Speculative prefs. in small size not worth it bcz of dividend size.
4) Other speculative prefs. in large size without being in driver seat, not advisable. |
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09-06-26 carib
| Panas: 67K$ on 71MM$ in not worth the hassle, as you say. But my question stays: what is the "expert solution"? In the EU, I can tell you what the legal solutions are, for large size. In the US I just do not know, but I doubt there is a "magical secret sauce" that remained secret. If there is a sauce, it will be known. |
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09-06-26 panasonic
| Carib, back to apple, keep.in mind that 30% of $224k is $67k so not sure if worth the hassle. |
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09-06-26 panasonic
| Carib, on Spals hotel pref. shares keep in mind the whole market cap is 175MM, a big size investor would find hard to invest in it w/o falling in the 10% control under sec rules. |
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09-06-26 panasonic
Carib, that is clear, hence my question how much dividend should be to justify picking something that has 30% w/h?
Yearly $224k may be worth paying a visit with an expert, me think. |
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09-06-26 carib
Panas: that misses the point, I am afraid. AAPL is not a "high dividend" stock. It is a capital gain stock. You might remember myself and Wally discussing it 30 years ago. My 2.000 AAPL shares of 1994 would be now, if my memory is correct, 224.000 AAPL shares, worth 71.000.000 $ and change. Dividends, initially 0, are still small change.
But if you take the hotel pref suggested by SPAL, with a 12% dividend.. the tax impact is huge. |
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