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02-20-26 spal
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02-20-26 spal
| Swinging heavily into tankers |
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02-20-26 pillz
| 1.7 point below my strike price |
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02-20-26 pillz
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02-20-26 spal
The oil is obviously being transported already now, as we said in our prepared remarks, but I will let Christian comment on kind of our outlook for Venezuela.
Lee Edwards: Yeah. So last year, Venezuelan crude exports averaged about
Kenneth Hvid: 800,000 barrels a day. We obviously saw in
Christian Waldegrave: December and January after 500,000 barrels a day, and it was all the long-haul flow to China that disappeared. Just looking at where it is tracking in February, we are already back up to about 700,000 barrels a day of exports. So the oil is starting to move again. And it is all going on non-sanctioned ships primarily to the U.S. Gulf/Caribbean region, but we have also seen two or three cargoes to Europe. We know that India is starting to buy some barrels as well. So it looks like we are going to get back up to the normal run rate of 800,000 barrels a day of exports fairly soon.
Then I think there is an expectation as well that with the Venezuelan oil industry opening up and foreign companies coming in and doing more investment that production and exports could be boosted within the year by another 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day. But that is obviously dependent on how quick they can get things moving there. So I think it is a good story for the tanker market in terms of the exports shifting from the dark fleet to the compliant fleet. And then if we can get some extra production and volumes moving as well, then it is just going to benefit the midsized tankers especially even more.
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02-20-26 spal
Outlook and Strategic Assumptions
Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, with additional upside from Chinese strategic stockpiling estimated at 1 million barrels per day.
The shift of Venezuelan oil to the compliant fleet is expected to create significant demand, with management noting that every 500,000 barrels per day shifted to the U.S. Gulf requires approximately 20 Aframaxes. |
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02-20-26 spal
Teekay Tankers Ltd. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Strategic Performance and Market Dynamics
Performance was driven by significant spot market exposure during a period where rates reached the second-highest fourth-quarter levels in 15 years.
Management attributes market strength to the unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts and rising production from the Americas, which increased seaborne oil trade volumes to near-record highs.
Stricter sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela have created trading inefficiencies that benefit the compliant fleet by pushing volumes away from the 'dark fleet'.
Operational outperformance was supported by 99.8% fleet availability and a strategic reduction in free cash flow breakeven levels to approximately $11,300 per day. |
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02-20-26 spal
Personal Income and Outlays, December 2025
Personal income increased $86.2 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in December, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Disposable personal income (DPI)—
personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.7 billion (0.3 percent), and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $91.0 billion (0.4 percent). |
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02-20-26 savo
victor...
«Ladran, Sancho, señal que cabalgamos» es una
frase popular utilizada para indicar que el progreso o el éxito de un proyecto genera críticas y envidias, lo cual confirma que se está avanzando. Aunque se atribuye erróneamente a Don Quijote de la Mancha de Miguel de Cervantes, su origen parece estar en el poema "Ladran" (1808) de Johann Wolfgang von Goethe o en la adaptación del personaje por Rubén Darío.
Puntos Clave:
Origen Falso: No aparece en ninguna de las dos partes de Don Quijote.
Origen Real: Se atribuye a una versión del poema "Kläffer" (1808) del escritor alemán Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, que dice: "Y el fuerte sonido de sus ladridos solo prueba que estamos cabalgando"
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Popularización: Se cree que Rubén Darío popularizó la frase incorporando al personaje de Sancho en un contexto irónico. |
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02-20-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
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12h
From the $ECO call, rates are continuing to move up and they feel like it’s “just the beginning of the current spike”. |
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02-20-26 victor
savo, is this your translation of Cervantes "Ladran Sancho, señal que cabalgamos"?
//
it doesnt belong to him, cervantes didn't write it.
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02-20-26 spal
| Summary for Feb 2026: If you are tracking rates, watch the Danish Straits and Caribbean blockade specifically. Every time a shadow tanker like the Veronica is seized, it removes ~2 million barrels of "rogue" capacity, forcing charterers back to the compliant market and pushing spot rates closer to the $150k ceiling. |
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02-20-26 spal
The "dark fleet":
Russia is the primary driver --- the fleet is a tripartite alliance of necessity between Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
The Russian "Core": Comprises roughly 65%–70% of the dark fleet. These vessels are largely managed out of the UAE, India, and Hong Kong. Many are former "Tier 1" ships sold by Greek owners in 2023–2024 to anonymous entities.
The "cessation" of dark fleet operations in Venezuela is not a hypothetical—it is currently unfolding. Following the U.S. maritime blockade and the subsequent "license-based" reopening of exports to Western firms (like Chevron), the dark fleet is being evicted from the Caribbean.
The Capacity Gap: Prior to December 2025, roughly 100–120 tankers (ranging from Aframaxes to VLCCs) serviced the Venezuelan "shadow" trade, primarily moving oil to China.
The Replacement Need: As this oil shifts to "compliant" trade (moving to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries), the route changes from a 45-day journey (to China) to a 4–6 day journey (to the U.S.).
The Paradox: While the shorter trip to the U.S. technically requires fewer ships, the retraction of those 120 shadow ships from the global pool is a net positive for rates. Those shadow ships cannot simply "join" the compliant fleet (like DHT or FRO) because they are blacklisted, uninsured, and structurally deficient. They are essentially scrapped by sanctions, effectively shrinking the global tanker supply by ~12%–15%.
Tanker rates are not linear; they are "hockey-stick" shaped.
When global fleet utilization is below 85%, rates stay near breakeven ($20k–$30k).
When utilization crosses 90%, rates explode.
Calculation: If the dark fleet accounts for 15% of global capacity and 50% of it is "retracted" (seized or idled), global utilization for the remaining "compliant" fleet jumps from 88% to 94%.
For every 1% decrease in available vessel supply (due to dark fleet retraction), spot rates historically increase by $5,000–$8,000 per day in a tight market.
As the dark fleet retracts, "Tier 1" charterers (Shell, Exxon, BP) become terrified of "sanction contagion."
They will pay a massive premium to ensure their cargo is on a DHT or Frontline vessel.
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02-20-26 spal
DHT - just announced (after the close) that the Opal is chartered for 1 year at $94k per day. Across its fleet of 17 tankers DHT has a breakeven of $18k per day per ship. We are now approaching "super cycle" rates ... think that $110k is a good average for 2026 based on current conditions.
The super cycle narrative is often wheeled out ... what are the forces right now?
1. Ghost Fleet Clampdown: As Western governments tighten the "noose" on shadow tankers, the pool of "compliant" ships shrinks. This effectively removes ~15% of the global VLCC supply, forcing oil onto ships like DHT’s.
2. Orderbook Vacuum: There is a physical limit to how many ships can be built. Most yards are full through 2027 with LNG and container orders. Supply cannot catch up to demand for at least 24 months.
3. Ton-Mile Expansion: Geopolitical disruptions in the Red Sea have turned 20-day voyages into 40-day voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. This "stretches" the existing fleet, making every available ship twice as valuable.
As the U.S. and EU escalate enforcement and seizures of these vessels, the "compliant" fleet (like DHT’s) becomes the only option for major oil companies and reputable traders.
Safety Premium: High-tier charterers (Shell, TotalEnergies, Exxon) are increasingly unwilling to risk using "shadow" vessels. This creates a two-tier market where "clean" operators like DHT can command a significant premium.
I like DHT and FRO and will likely add both. Q3 targets of $25+ DHT and 50+ Frontline are possible.
Frontline is currently in the middle of a massive $2 billion fleet renewal. In January 2026, they sold 8 older ships and bought 9 state-of-the-art newbuilds.
The "John Fredriksen" Factor: FRO is known for aggressive financial maneuvering. They are currently more leveraged than DHT, meaning that when rates go from $80k to $110k, FRO’s stock price tends to "pop" much more violently.
The Diversification Edge: While DHT only does VLCCs, FRO has 39 smaller ships (Suezmax/Aframax). In the current geopolitical climate, these smaller ships are often more flexible for shifting trade routes (like the Mediterranean and Atlantic basins), providing a hedge if VLCC demand fluctuates.
DHT Holdings: The Case for Safety and Simplicity
DHT’s model is built on low-stress dominance.
The Floor: Because DHT’s breakeven is $18,300 (vs FRO’s $26,000), DHT is virtually "recession-proof." Even if the super-cycle ends and rates crash to $25k, DHT is still paying a dividend, while FRO would be barely breaking even on its VLCCs.
Payout Guarantee: DHT’s 100% payout policy is more rigid than Frontline’s. FRO occasionally withholds cash for acquisitions (like their recent $1.2B newbuild deal). If you want the cash in your pocket every quarter without fail, DHT is the superior vehicle. |
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02-19-26 spal
Unsurprisingly, Reddit sentiment is also running hot with a single post on r/wallstreetbets pushed DHT's social score to 88 out of 100. Another Reddit claimed to have put $80,000 on DHT monthly call options, betting on escalating Middle East tensions. The thesis: geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz drives tanker demand higher, and DHT's fleet of 22 VLCCs captures those elevated rates.
Meme boys in basements have arrived ...
Added to my DHT position |
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02-19-26 spal
Analogous Companies and Potential Similar FateOther alternative asset managers with retail-facing private credit funds (e.g., semi-liquid BDCs or interval funds) could face analogous issues due to liquidity mismatches—promising periodic redemptions on illiquid loans. Their stocks tumbled on February 19, 2026, signaling market fears of contagion:Company
Blackstone (BX)
Manages BCRED (Blackstone Credit Fund), a large retail private credit vehicle with similar redemption features. Heavy software lending exposure. Total AUM: ~$1T.
High retail inflows but recent redemption gates in real estate funds (BREIT) show vulnerability. Could face forced sales if outflows spike.
Down ~6%.
Apollo Global Management (APO)
Offers retail private debt products; attempted similar fund mergers. AUM: ~$700B.
Retail products under pressure; software concentration risks. Past liquidity events in insurance arms.
Down ~6%.
KKR & Co. (KKR)
Retail-oriented credit funds with redemption options. AUM: ~$600B.
Growing retail channel; exposure to tech/software defaults.
Down ~4%.
Ares Management (ARES)
Direct lending focus with retail BDCs; similar liquidity promises. AUM: ~$450B.
High redemption demands in tech-heavy portfolios could trigger gates.
Down >6%.
Carlyle Group (CG)
Private credit vehicles for individuals; merger attempts in funds. AUM: ~$400B.
Liquidity mismatches in retail products; software sector bets.
Down >5%.
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02-19-26 spal
Investor redemptions (withdrawals) have been permanently halted at Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), a non-traded BDC primarily targeted at retail (individual) investors. Instead of allowing quarterly redemptions (previously capped at 5% of net asset value, or NAV), the fund will now provide liquidity only through periodic distributions as assets are sold or loans mature. This shift effectively makes the fund fully illiquid for redemptions, with the first distribution planned for Q1 2026 (up to ~30% of NAV, or $2.35 per share, totaling ~$268 million)
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02-19-26 spal
"Ladran Sancho, señal que cabalgamos"
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Yes in away but via the Arabic (old Arab proverb) ... as we know the Spanish are basically Arabs ...
;)
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02-19-26 spal
DHT
DHT HOLDINGS INC
16.7850.515 (+3.17%)
Exceptional performance today ... it is ex-div (41 cents) ... this stock is poised to take out yesterday's high ... only a stock with very high interest and sentiment can do that |
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02-19-26 savo
death by financial crisis:
Mohamed A. El-Erian@elerianm
Is this a “canary-in-the-coalmine” moment, similar to August 2007?
This question will be on the mind of some investors and policymakers this morning as they assess the news that, quoting the FT, the “private credit group Blue Owl will permanently restrict investors from withdrawing their cash from its inaugural private retail debt fund.”
There’s plenty to think about here, starting with the risks of an investing phenomenon in advanced (not developing) markets that has gone too far overall (short answer: yes), to the approaches being taken by specific firms (lots of differences, yet subject to the “market for lemons” risk). There’s also the “elephant in the room” question regarding much larger systemic risks (nowhere near the magnitude of those which fueled the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, but a significant – and necessary – valuation hit is looming for specific assets). |
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02-19-26 savo
spal.... Although the dogs may bark, the caravan moves on
is this your translation of Cervantes "Ladran Sancho, señal que cabalgamos"? |
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02-19-26 spal
| The truth about the world, he said, is that anything is possible. Had you not seen it all from birth and thereby bled it of its strangeness it would appear to you for what it is, a hat trick in a medicine show, a fevered dream, a trance bepopulate with chimeras having neither analogue nor precedent, an itinerant carnival, a migratory tentshow whose ultimate destination after many a pitch in many a mudded field is unspeakable and calamitous beyond reckoning. |
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02-19-26 spal
Buy America
All that talk last year about the Sell America trade was just that — talk.
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It was of course and as normal just griping, grousing, bleatings and blatherings ...
"Although the dogs may bark, the caravan moves on" |
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02-19-26 savo
pillz... Treasury Department data showed.
Surely you do not believe that nonsense...
You do know that every number produced by the US government is a lie to be revised... and that Wall Street's job is to amplify those lies.
proof.. the S&P is flat YTD... the Fed had to reverse QT to QE, CHFUSD at an historic high... and long bonds remain above 4%... |
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02-19-26 pillz
The clearest manifestation of anti-US investment sentiment, weakness in the dollar, made US stocks and bonds cheaper for foreign buyers. That may have encouraged some overseas managers to load up on US securities, says Geoff Yu at BNY.
“Yes, there has been geopolitical instability as of late, and the sell-the-dollar trade has been popular as a result,” said Andrew Hazlett, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex. But ultimately Treasuries make up a large share of sovereign debt holdings, he noted. “I don’t really see a world where that changes.” |
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02-19-26 pillz
Buy America
All that talk last year about the Sell America trade was just that — talk.
Overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion of long-term US financial assets in 2025, Treasury Department data showed. That’s up from a net $1.18 trillion of purchases the previous year. Of that total, $658.5 billion went into equities and $442.7 billion to Treasury notes and bonds.
The numbers are a win for Donald Trump and Scott Bessent. The Treasury secretary has regularly pushed back against “sell America” rhetoric, arguing that the administration’s economic policies enhance the US’s position as the top destination for global capital. |
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02-19-26 panasonic
| I suppose that opening research reports will become obsolete, everything will be found under one roof. |
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02-19-26 Merlino
| Savo, interesting AI analysis, specially the interpretative/speculative part based on rumors, mkt price action, etc. |
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