09-09-26 carib
Savo: I think you can buy Gold futures june 2032 (five years into the future) for 5320$ an ounce, or about 20% more expensive than current price of 4440$. if you invest 4440$ in UST bonds, by 2032 you end up more or less with the same 5300$ outcome.
If you expect gold to go up dramatically, I guess you can make loads of money with options, I suppose. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Savo - as you know I play risky equities but without leverage - so I am also tuned to the macro dynamic across the system. I see fragility ... you see more ... this is all that separates us. |
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09-09-26 savo
spal...i understand that dynamic...but my bet is that we are in a different world now and that well oiled dynamic will break and gold and silver ( and copper, etc..) will be the only refuge.
Let's see.. so far my precious metals portfolio is doing well within my expectations but not as well as i would have expected |
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09-09-26 savo
seems it is going to be death by inflation AND dead by financial crisis
gold should be at 50k.. yet... it isn't |
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09-09-26 spal
Staging:
Early Repression Phases:
Industrial commodities (oil, copper, fertilizer) consistently outperform gold because real economic demand and supply-chain bottlenecks force industrial prices upward long before monetary panic sets in.
Late-Stage Repression: Gold catches up and surges when real yields turn deeply negative or when trust in paper sovereign debt breaks down completely.
We are not near late stage. But it is fun to jibber this way and makes good headlines. |
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09-09-26 spal
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09-09-26 spal
Savo - you do you the following us the dynamic I am trading on:
When central banks allow nominal bond yields to adjust upward (even if lagging true inflation), paper bonds yield a positive nominal payout. That acts as a temporary brake on gold.
Conversely, energy and metals perform based on physical tightness, generating strong cash flows through commodity producers regardless of yield movements.
We are under a regime known as financial repression - get long commodity linked plays. |
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09-09-26 savo
seems it is going to be death by inflation AND dead by financial crisis
gold should be at 50k.. yet... it isn't |
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09-09-26 carib
Treasury yields are rising to new highs after investors expressed disappointment that the Treasury Department's expanded bond buyback program isn't larger.
The 10-year yield approached 4.85%, its highest level since 2023, after Treasury said it would buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt at its Thursday buyback operation. Some expected a larger buyback, which could have calmed yields down a bit more.
WSJ |
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09-09-26 spal
| NAT provides asymmetric mid-size upside. Its 100% Suezmax fleet is uniquely tailored to Caribbean, US Gulf, and West African routes that benefit directly from trade adjustments. |
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09-09-26 carib
| Not sure about AI trends, but in human students I (PISA scores) China is number 1 or number 2, globally. The USA is number 13 or 14. |
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09-09-26 spal
Impact on ASC: Avoiding the Suez Canal adds 10 to 14 sailing days per voyage. This absorbs global vessel capacity, effectively shrinking the net supply of available MR/chemical tankers and pushing spot rates higher across both Atlantic and Pacific basins.
With respect to dilutents ... Even if Ardmore’s specific vessels are not performing the US Gulf-to-Venezuela leg directly, every MR tanker pulled into dedicated short-haul USG–Venezuela diluent runs reduces the available pool of MRs servicing US Gulf export routes to South America, West Africa, or Europe—raising spot rates across the entire Atlantic basin. |
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09-09-26 spal
Houthi targeting of commercial shipping forced long-haul clean product and chemical trade between Asia/Middle East and Europe to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
AKA the Houthi-Pokey
You put your right foot in, you take your right foot out, you put your right foot in and you shake it all about. You do the houthi pokey and you turn yourself around. That’s what it’s all about. |
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09-09-26 spal
PPIH
PERMA-PIPE INTL HLDG
31.24 (+7.24%) |
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09-09-26 spal
ASC
ARDMORE SHIPPING COR
Adding
Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC) operates in a sweet spot that bridges standard clean petroleum products (CPP) and liquid chemical shipping.
Because their fleet consists primarily of MR product tankers and IMO 2/3 coated chemical tankers (approx. 25k to 50k dwt), they benefit directly from the same geopolitically driven tonne-mile expansion lifting broader product tankers, while capturing premium spot rates in specialized chemical trades. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Holding large position in TRMD ... I think it should hold fairly well through the dividend distribution tomorrow (although these are notorious for getting oversold), This div is very large. Pricing power is holding for the entire fleet - probably improving from historic high levels and I think this situation holds for 6-12 months ... |
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09-09-26 spal
| Slow adding more NAT ... suezmax fleet to pull crude into the med and around africa ... |
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09-09-26 spal
| ALVOF - USD 9 might be fair value for year end ... certainly pushing towards it now. |
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09-09-26 spal
| ALVOF ... heavy and adding |
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09-09-26 spal
| PPIH ... pipes in the Middle East and for Data Center cooling ... minor add ... developing ... no rush, but on track. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Got out without a hitch - thanks Panas! |
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09-09-26 panasonic
"Heathrow seems ok today"
Bon voyage! |
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09-09-26 panasonic
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US faces dire consequences if it loses out in the AI race with China"
Took them 3 years to understand what Musk said since day one :-( |
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09-09-26 carib
IMHO Veny should restructure into sort of new Brady bonds, secured by oil revenues from the US.25 years duration
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09-09-26 spal
| Cash (dated) Brent is now trading almost $108 so physical markets are much tighter than futures exchange screens are showing. Recap of Iran situation so far this week |
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09-09-26 victor
savo, speaking of..
Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US faces dire consequences if it loses out in the AI race with China, highlighting the angst in Washington about its rival's tech advances.
"There is no day after tomorrow if China wins at this," Bessent said at a Breitbart News event in Washington on Tuesday, indicating also that the US's large defense budget would fail to protect the nation. "If they were to pull away from us on AI, then nothing else would matter."
The comments appear aimed at some voices in the US upset that large data center projects are getting built in their backyards. Late last month, President Donald Trump warned that a growing public backlash to the projects in the US poses an economic threat and risks giving China the upper hand in AI.
In China, many new projects are going up far from big cities in less populated regions in the north and northwest.
Bessent's remarks also highlight worries in the US about open-weight Chinese models that are nearly as powerful as American versions at a fraction of the cost for the user. That's happening even though the US has tried to deny China access to its most advanced tech.
Also on Tuesday, US government agencies said Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and other China-based AI companies "extracted billions of tokens across millions of exchanges/requests from US frontier AI models," including variants of Anthropic PBC's Claude, Alphabet Inc.'s Gemini and SpaceXAI's Grok since at least late 2024.
Tokens are units of data processed by models during training and inference. They enable prediction, generation and reasoning.
The actions were potentially taken "with Chinese government awareness," the Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Security Agency and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a statement.
Reuters has reported that the US and China were preparing to discuss AI safety risks in mid-September, talks that if they happened would come just before Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump in Washington on Sept. 24.
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09-09-26 victor
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09-09-26 spal
CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The U.S. warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.
Boom, boom, boom, boom
I want you in my room
Let's spend the night together
From now until forever
Boom, boom, boom, boom
Vengaboys |
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09-09-26 spal
China dropped oil buying 41% February to July. They’ve been quietly buying oil cargoes through August. Now they are going to bid up every tanker cargo globally until November
Boss move by Chickitty China |
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09-09-26 spal
| Chinese Oil Demand Unexpectedly Soars, Sending Shanghai Crude Above $100, With Brent Prices Set To Follow |
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09-09-26 spal
| Meanwhile, refined products pricing has increased much more than crude oil pricing, increasing the crack spread for refiners, allowing freight costs to rise to levels that would normally be unacceptable to refiners. |
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09-09-26 spal
Meanwhile, refined products pricing has increased much more than crude oil pricing, increasing the crack spread for refiners, allowing freight costs to rise to levels that would normally be unacceptable to refiners.
TRMD
Note it goes ex-div in Europe today and USA tomorrow ($2.40). |
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09-09-26 spal
The Baltic Exchange’s global suezmax index is 2.7 times its level one year ago and the aframax index is two times higher. The global VLCC index is 7.1 times higher.
Still holding tanker positions - adding
Still holding oil & LNG infra positions - indeed adding |
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09-09-26 spal
https://x.com/gmjournalist/status/2097470273888928027?s=46
Excellent update on tanker rates.
Heathrow seems ok today - gracias a Dios |
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09-09-26 savo
exactly victor..only a fool can do the bidding on an economy ignorant like dt.
Have you hear the moronic reverence with which he talks to or about dt?
yes sir.. of course sir... you are right sir... |
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09-09-26 leopardo
Very bonds will continue climbing.
Smoothly |
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09-09-26 victor
savo, the fool disguised as Treasury secretary not taken seriously by the market.
//
according to dt, all these guys that work for him simply do his bidding..
so it's not a really reflection on this guy, but on dt himself. |
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09-09-26 victor
| vzla bonds continue going up.. interesting. |
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09-08-26 savo
meanwhile 10 years at 4.79 and 30 at 5.25.
the fool disguised as Treasury secretary not taken seriously by the market. |
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09-08-26 carib
“Estos campos serán productivos y generarán regalías e ingresos para el pueblo venezolano eventualmente a través de un gobierno elegido democráticamente”, sostuvo Rubio.
Rubio señaló que Washington espera que ese escenario se produzca “más pronto que tarde”, y remarcó que el dinero procedente de la actividad petrolera debería terminar en manos de los venezolanos.
“Beneficiarán directamente al pueblo de Venezuela en lugar de ir a parar al bolsillo de algún funcionario gubernamental corrupto o a manos de adversarios estadounidenses y venezolanos”, afirmó |
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09-08-26 spal
| Thanks on the flight info also - they rebooted their system, but not without knock-on effects. Our plane is scheduled at noon tomorrow so my fingers are crossed. |
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09-08-26 spal
They instead hearken back to a time of heroic conflict, refusing to accept the constraints of liberal democratic capitalism.
===
I was thinking along similar lines recently Carib so I am glad you mentioned this book. |
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09-08-26 spal
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09-08-26 carib
| how will people who cannot read and count properly vote? |
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09-08-26 carib
THE HAGUE--Nearly four in every 10 Dutch 15-year-olds do not have the minimum reading proficiency considered necessary to fully participate in society, according to the latest international PISA results, deepening concerns over declining literacy levels in the Netherlands.
More than 39 percent of Dutch students assessed fell below the minimum reading level, compared with approximately 33 percent in the previous PISA assessment in 2022. |
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09-08-26 carib
| PS: in any case, IMHO.. avoid France, Spain or Germany. |
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09-08-26 carib
| Savo:a local corporation rents an apartment, and hires staff. Corp is owned by another corp, or by local lawyer on fiduciary basis. |
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09-08-26 savo
carib.. even if possible i would not do that. I do not like to deal with the administration.
We come and we go. |
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09-08-26 carib
| In his upcoming memoir, "In the Realm of the Last Man", Fukuyama makes clear that he views figures like Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump as unwilling to pay the cost of progress. They instead hearken back to a time of heroic conflict, refusing to accept the constraints of liberal democratic capitalism. |
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09-08-26 panasonic
"UK produced goods worth shopping for"
Fish & Chips |
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09-08-26 carib
| Flights around the UK are facing delays and disruption due to an air traffic control issue which has affected a string of airports including Heathrow and Gatwick, and recovery may take time. |
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09-08-26 carib
| What are the UK produced goods worth shopping for, nowadays? |
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09-08-26 panasonic
| Savo, ok I'm thinking "Optimus" to solve that in near future. |
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09-08-26 carib
| If immigration to Spain was open, but regulated, you could import a live-in tied to the employment contract, as in Dubai or Hong Kong.. |
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09-08-26 panasonic
"wife is shopping"
Short trip to Harrods will eat you profits (and more).
"Mercato Mayfair" may help you offset loses, ex-Church that now is a food court near Bond Street, reasonable prices.
:-)) |
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09-08-26 savo
| pana.. we pay a monthly salary... but airBnBs pay per hour and that is the competition we face... some people prefer to work every day in the same house... but most people go the airBnB per hour route and make more money...hence the supply shrinks and the salary goes up... market capitalism. |
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09-08-26 spal
URA and Oil calls in good mood
===
Yes even noticed that strolling around Covent Garden - always good to see schtocks in a good mood when the wife is shopping.
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09-08-26 carib
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09-08-26 carib
Iceland has summoned the US ambassador over a social media post by Donald Trump showing a US flag covering the country along with Greenland, Canada, Mexico and other nations, calling it an “insult” and a “bad joke”.
interesting to note: the "trump map" includes in the USA: Cuba, Haiti, the Bahamas and Iceland.
Not sure if it is intentional, or due to limited info on political geography.
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09-08-26 panasonic
"Price per hour have sky rocketed"
Are you paying per hour or flat fee for full clean? |
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09-08-26 panasonic
| URA and Oil calls in good mood |
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09-08-26 carib
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09-08-26 savo
| airBnBs in my area demand a lot of cleaners. Very few left to work living-in or even come daily. Price per hour have sky rocketed. |
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09-08-26 carib
| maids in Sao Paulo and Lisbon now with similar pay. |
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09-08-26 carib
In Lisbon there is a lot of salary stress. statutory salaries have gone up little in the last 15 years, but new rents have doubled.
Old rents go up in line with official inflation, as do statutory salaries, so people who own their house or have an historic rent are doing ok.. but newcomers have to resort to cohabitation if in the low income bracket.
This generates a political problem, like in similar places, but the point is that 70% of locals are homeowners, actually happy with booming RE, and a significant portion of renters are foreigners, with no voting rights.
The only reasonable and viable solution would be building very basic 25 floors structures with affordable rents, IMHO. |
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09-08-26 carib
| Savo: thanks. my maids salary increase was much lower, in the 2019-2026 period. I always pay above statutory salaries, but in the last 15 years pay increases were limited. |
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09-08-26 savo
carib...85.7%
i have a notebook where i keep record of what I pay to people.
I do not know how much of that is inflation and how much of that is the place where we live.
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09-08-26 carib
Swiss cantons locked in competition to woo high-net-worth individuals
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09-08-26 carib
| In September '23, UAE President bin Zayed called Netanyahu to deliver a harsh warning. Netanyahu did nothing. An extensive investigation, conducted for a new book, reveals the PM's failures surrounding Oct. 7. Netanyahu: 'This is an absolute lie' |
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09-08-26 carib
Iran's ex-president Rouhani urges public say on ending war, prompting calls for arrest
“We must, in accordance with the overwhelming majority of the people, end the war with honor so that we can rebuild the country, so that we can compensate for the damage done,” Hassan Rouhani said. |
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09-08-26 carib
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09-08-26 spal
| It's Savo's cleaner Carib. |
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09-08-26 carib
| Spal: what was the total salary increase of the cleaner since 2019? |
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09-08-26 savo
‼️🇺🇦
"We shall continue the War until the money stops filling our accounts in Monaco & Liechtenstein or we've used up all our Men & Women fighting the Invincible Russian Army!"
Zelensky Once Again Rejected the Transfer of Donbas in Exchange for a Peace Agreement
▪️The comedian made it clear that Kiev is still not ready to agree to the transfer of Donbas in exchange for an end to the war.
➖"The issue of Donbass is essentially the issue of the entire war, and without a strong position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front lines, Russia will only issue ultimatums," Zelenskyy stated.
▪️He also said that the United States intends to increase the production of missiles for Patriot systems next year, and Ukraine expects to receive additional air defense systems.
⚠️‼️🇺🇦 Ukrainian negotiators do not expect the war to end before winter – FT
▪️According to the publication, Kiev believes that ending the war before the onset of winter is unlikely.
▪️Whitcoff and Kushner, as the Financial Times writes, brought a few new ideas – mainly updated versions of proposals that had already been discussed and published.
▪️The main contentious issue remains control over the Donbass region and the possible withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces units.
The Ukrainian Army is waiting to be told they can surrender and go home....
https://x.com/SMO_VZ/status/2096656624089801064 |
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09-08-26 savo
Brent 98+...
good job DT! |
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