04-13-26 spal
The movement of the New Future and the Auroura on Monday morning, April 13, 2026, represents the first significant "Blockade Run" following the collapse of the US-Iran peace talks and President Trump's declaration of a full naval blockade.The vessels are utilizing the "Tehran Toll Booth" (the Northern Corridor), a protected transit route south of Larak Island that hug the Iranian coast to avoid allegedly mined waters in the main international shipping channels.
The Auroura: This vessel is a known "Shadow Fleet" operator with a history of identity-spoofing and was sanctioned by the US Treasury earlier this year. It is managed by Golden Gate Ship Management, an entity that shares a Mumbai address with several other sanctioned single-ship companies.
The New Future: Owned by a Hong Kong-based entity, this vessel has remained in the Persian Gulf since December 2025. Unlike the Auroura, it has no direct sanctions history, making it a "test case" for whether the US Navy will interdict non-sanctioned vessels paying the Iranian transit fee.
Cargo Sponsorship and DestinationsThe "sponsorship" of these cargoes is deeply tied to the mBridge digital ledger system and the emerging "Hydra" financial axis (China, Iran, Russia, and India) designed to bypass Western insurance and banking "Software-Locks."
The Auroura:Cargo: Heavily suspected to be Iranian Crude.Sponsorship: Lloyd's List and maritime intelligence suggests the cargo is sponsored by an Indian state-backed refiner under a temporary waiver/protocol that was nullified by the new US blockade.Destination: Paradip or New Mangalore, India.The New Future:Cargo: Refined petroleum products or chemicals.Sponsorship: Likely a commercial "parcel" trade sponsored by a Chinese-linked trading house. By utilizing the Larak passage, the sponsors have effectively paid the $1M–$2M "Tehran Toll" (likely in Chinese Yuan or cryptocurrency) to ensure IRGC protection during the transit.Destination: Generally signaled for an eastward transit (likely East Asia).
The Strategic SignificanceThese two ships are forcing the US Navy into a binary choice on Day 1 of the blockade:Interdict and Seize: Validates the blockade but risks a direct kinetic escalation with Iranian coastal batteries on Larak Island.Allow Passage: Effectively ends the "Blockade" as a credible deterrent and validates the Iranian "Toll Booth" as the new operating system for the Strait. |
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04-13-26 spal
| Iran's economy can be imploded ... this is the next phase. |
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04-13-26 spal
| Panas - China ... clearly a big X-factor here. |
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04-12-26 panasonic
| Spal, I hope China is part of ongoing discussions o/w an escalation seems inevitable :-( |
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04-12-26 spal
| Iran demonstrated that a mid-tier military power can close the world's most important chokepoint against the world's most powerful navy. This lesson will not be lost on other states that control narrow waterways: Turkey (Bosphorus), Egypt (Suez), Malaysia and Indonesia (Malacca). |
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04-12-26 spal
This is pretty good. I used to work with this guy, so I know the source.
https://oil101.morgandowney.com/chapters/iran-strait |
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04-12-26 spal
"Break an ememy blockade by blockading their blockade"
The wit & wisdom of Don Tze |
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04-12-26 spal
Big clarification from US Central Command
US WILL HAVE NO BLOCKADE for vessels using Omani water to transit Strait of Hormuz
US BLOCKADE is only for Iranian ports and transits via Iranian Waters. |
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04-12-26 carib
Victor: I think they did listen, but did not agree.
Bad week for JD Vance. |
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04-12-26 victor
| dt will be upset.. hungarian voters did not listen to him. |
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04-12-26 carib
| Good news from Budapest (for a change) |
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04-12-26 carib
| Half of the former Houti cabinet is already dead (from previous strike) |
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04-12-26 spal
| A "Hard-Sieve" naval cordon around Hodeidah and Salif. Nothing goes in or out of Houthi ports—not even "humanitarian" aid—until the strait is cleared. |
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04-12-26 spal
| The UAE's focus will be Territorial Seizure. * The Play: Look for a rapid amphibious assault to retake and garrison Perim (Mayun) Island and potentially the Hanish Islands. The UAE has spent years building a "string of pearls" bases (Assab in Eritrea, Socotra, and Berbera). They will use these to launch "Ship-to-Shore" maneuvers to push Houthi forces back at least 20 miles from the coastline. |
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04-12-26 spal
| If the Houthis use Iranian-supplied anti-ship missiles (like the Khalij Fars), Israel will likely execute "Targeted Deletion" of Houthi leadership in Sana'a within hours. |
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04-12-26 spal
| Saudi Arabia is postured for an immediate, high-intensity kinetic entry into the Yemen theater the moment a commercial vessel is struck in the Bab el-Mandeb. |
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04-12-26 spal
| The Royal Saudi Air Force has already moved to a "Pre-emptive Strike" footing. |
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04-12-26 spal
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04-12-26 spal
| So what's the betting on which knucklehead will try to shut down the next "choke point". |
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04-12-26 victor
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04-12-26 panasonic
Vic, Carter allowed to Coup against the Shah with no resistance.
The big mistake was to go against Iraq instead of Iran (Bush Legacy).
Then came years of Obama's complacency with Iran.
Trump's first term increased pressure via sanctions, etc. with no concrete action except taking out Soleimani.
Last, auto-pen didn't open one single intelligence report.
Here we are...
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04-12-26 victor
pana, here is an example of what i mean:
saddam was willing to cut deals with the Shah..
but didn't want the iranian islamists to spread the revolution to iraq.
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/MlPedZpsfVw
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04-12-26 spal
contraband via trans-arabian pipelines to the red sea.
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As you know the Saudis and the Emirates have played both sides of the fence ... this will now end. |
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04-12-26 spal
spal, ..thus dt should leave the strait.
but he's not, quite the contrary.
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I think negative c. 13 million barrels per day is the issue. He needs to find some way of managing the shock.
If this is pressed to the extreme the Qataris and Emiraties will lose big time. Iraq is also against the wall, but the west cares less. China thinks that the Iranians will use the trapped Saudi and UAE crude to function and swap (blend) their own as contraband via trans-arabian pipelines to the red sea. Once the US closes that off we will see if they blink. Of course they may escort their own tankers through the Strait ... then we will see who blinks then. |
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04-12-26 victor
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04-12-26 panasonic
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04-12-26 panasonic
Carib, yep we can find solutions in small spaces like colores.
Isn't NYC a good example of how far are "we" from the real voter's perception? |
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04-12-26 carib
| Not too late, IMHO, Panas. |
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04-12-26 victor
spal, ..thus dt should leave the strait.
but he's not, quite the contrary. |
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04-12-26 spal
"a consumer economy that restructures as a war economy"
Long discussion, better over a bottle of Chianti.
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Yes ... thanks Panas it is a longer discussion. Vic/ Savo I think you will see that the US has been preparing for Hemispheric separation longer than is commonly appreciated. You can see this in the Maritime Action Plan, the construction of energy independence, the strategic minerals policies rolling out. In a fragmenting world location in the Americas is hard to beat. I think you believe that Americans are weak and depraved. The pendulum always swings.
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04-12-26 panasonic
Carib, 100%.
Seems we arrived late to the game no? |
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04-12-26 panasonic
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04-12-26 spal
one full box of Chianti, my treat :-)
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We will share a bottle next time I am in Miami! |
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04-12-26 victor
pana, has iran started any wars since the islamic revolution?
others have started wars with iran, since the islamic revolution: saddam, israel, the usa.
if iran is such a problem, why would the usa go after saddam?
he was the first one who disliked these islamists.. invading iran shortly after the iranian revolution. |
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04-12-26 carib
Panas: the "red line" concerning Iranian nuclear proliferation should have been enforced long time ago.
Speak softly but carry and show a big stick.
When western leaders said "it is unacceptable".. they should have followed words with deeds, or refrained from speaking.
IMVHO.
I hope they now have a viable enforcement plan. |
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04-12-26 panasonic
"I am calling BS on Mythos ... I am so tired of tech bro bullshit"
If you are right on this, one full box of Chianti, my treat :-) |
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04-12-26 panasonic
"a consumer economy that restructures as a war economy"
Long discussion, better over a bottle of Chianti. |
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04-12-26 panasonic
"I second that: referring to amount of iranian drones and missiles?"
Yes, the amount, sophistication, and the "range" more than required to hit Israel and/or Gulf neighbors.
Media doesn't care that Iran military nuclear program was ambicious beyond annihilation of 10 Israels? why the silence.
Meanwhile, street Iranians endured 12 zeros devaluations of their currency. |
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04-12-26 carib
IDF chief rejects coalition recruitment law amid personnel crisis
The IDF has acknowledged a critical shortage of 9,000 combat soldiers on the ground and warned that the deficit could rise to 17,000 by the end of the year unless urgent legislation is passed. |
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04-12-26 carib
| Probably good for Venezuela. |
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04-12-26 victor
spal, what happens to a consumer economy that restructures as a war economy.
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for example? |
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04-12-26 victor
savo, beats me, but this is the 2nd part of the same post, which for some reason has been posted multiple times. ???
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So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khamenei, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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04-12-26 savo
victor... why does DT conduct foreign policy through Truth Social?
why doesn't he do it through confidential diplomatic back channels?
Only answer I can think of is that what he really wants is to move markets and profit in the process.
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04-12-26 victor
dt is nuts, has posted the same stuff multiple times.
this is his latest, a bit different than the others:
Iran promised to open the Strait of Hormuz, and they knowingly failed to do so. This caused anxiety, dislocation, and pain to many people and Countries throughout the World. They say they put mines in the water, even though all of their Navy, and most of their “mine droppers,” have been completely blown up. They may have done so, but what ship owner would want to take the chance? There is great dishonor and permanent harm to the reputation of Iran, and what’s left of their “Leaders,” but we are beyond all of that. As they promised, they better begin the process of getting this INTERNATIONAL WATERWAY OPEN AND FAST! Every Law in the book is being violated by them. I have been fully debriefed by Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, on the meeting that took place in Islamabad through the kind and very competent leadership of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan. They are very extraordinary men, and continuously thank me for saving 30 to 50 million lives in what would have been a horrendous War with India. I always appreciate hearing that — The amount of Humanity spoken of is incomprehensible.
The meeting with Iran began early in the morning, and lasted throughout the night — Close to 20 hours. I could go into great detail, and talk about much that has been gotten but, there is only one thing that matters — IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS! In many ways, the points that were agreed to are better than us continuing our Military Operations to conclusion, but all of those points don’t matter compared to allowing Nuclear Power to be in the hands of such volatile, difficult, unpredictable people. My three Representatives, as all of this time went by, became, not surprisingly, very friendly and respectful of Iran’s Representatives, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Abbas Araghchi, and Ali Bagheri, but that doesn’t matter because they were very unyielding as to the single most important issue and, as I have always said, right from the beginning, and many years ago, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!
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04-12-26 victor
carib, Trump counter blockading Hormuz.
//
didn't dt say that he didn't give a rat's ass about what happened to the strait? |
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04-12-26 savo
spal... i do not understand what you mean...
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04-12-26 spal
| Savo will find out what happens to a consumer economy that restructures as a war economy. |
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04-12-26 spal
| The US can afford to take all the Gulf oil off line. Asia can't ... unless they decide that they want to eat grass (which is a possibility). |
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04-12-26 spal
| Limit up on Brent ... for sure |
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04-12-26 spal
| What I am reading is a large spike ... $20 to $30 and tightening from there. |
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04-12-26 carib
Trump counter blockading Hormuz.
Effect of oil prices? |
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04-12-26 carib
"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz," said Trump.
Trump added that he had "instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran." |
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04-12-26 carib
Israel said it killed Majid Khademi, head of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence organization, in a strike in Tehran early Monday, in an operation carried out by the Israeli Air Force based on precise intelligence.
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04-12-26 spal
| Tech bros ... they have such punchable faces ... that needs to start happening. |
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04-12-26 spal
Yann LeCun reposted
Brian Roemmele
@BrianRoemmele
“Anthropic's Claude Mythos isn't a sentient super-hacker, it's a sales pitch — claims of 'thousands' of severe zero-days rely on just 198 manual reviews”
Get used to the “Effective Altruists” fear and self-hating multi-level marketing system, it is just starting. |
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04-12-26 spal
| It sounds like a science fiction story jizzed up to generate sales and attention. The fact is that coding computers has always been full of errors and BS and will always be. |
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04-12-26 carib
US President Donald Trump claimed on Sunday that US-Iran ceasefire negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, “went well” despite no deal being reached after hours of talks.
“There you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, Nuclear, was not,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. |
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04-12-26 spal
| I am calling BS on Mythos ... I am so tired of tech bro bullshit. |
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04-12-26 carib
| May the fact the sacked most of the iran experts in foggy bottom and old executive building have had an impact? |
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04-12-26 carib
| I second that: referring to amount of iranian drones and missiles? |
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04-12-26 victor
pana, size of the military build-up in Iran.
//
i am slow. which build-up are you referring to?
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04-12-26 panasonic
Carib, Vic why is media so silent on the size of the military build-up in Iran.
They want DTs & Bibi's heads as their days are counted, but me don't see any discussion on the broader picture, response to Mythos was an emergency meeting, meaning we are running behind...
Last year I was in same the page as rest of world, supremacy was switching slowly, now thanks to AI slowly has been ruled out.
How UBI and price fixing by "one sole supplier" works? The key phrase "this will move VERY fast". |
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04-12-26 panasonic
Savo, in our case exit from our country was forced, not voluntary, so lets say that in our case putting together our family & friends in one place became top priority, what is money for if not to live where you want with who you want?
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04-12-26 victor
carib, right.. that's what jaime b said the other day, based on info from some of the media that he still reads, ny times, etc.
-netanyahu arrives in washington and sells the current war to dt. claiming that the regime was v weak and would quickly collapse.
-hegseth was the most enthusiast of going to war vs iran.
-vance was against going to war.
-marco was in the middle of both. he saw some advantages but said that netanyahu's plan was BS, that he wasn't buying it.
that a regime change was a lot more difficult than netanyahu claimed. |
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04-12-26 carib
Neither Iran nor the US has ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs international maritime passage. Donald Trump has both criticised the Islamic regime for demanding fees for safe passage and suggested Washington might someday join Tehran in a fee-paying venture in the strait.
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04-12-26 carib
The suspicion is Trump had no plan.. except following Netanyahu's
lead and hoping the Iran regime would crumble. |
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04-12-26 carib
After both the US and Iran reported a failure to reach a deal during the weekend’s ceasefire talks in Islamabad, US President Donald Trump on Sunday shared an article suggesting he would "out-blockade Iran’s hold over the Strait of Hormuz."
The article, from Just the News, claimed that the president could repurpose the strategy he used against Venezuela, and that “it would be very easy for the US Navy to exert complete control over what does and does not go up and down the Strait now.” |
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04-12-26 carib
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04-12-26 victor
US ‘looking for an excuse’ to leave talks
A source close to the Iranian delegation has told the Fars news agency that the US was looking for an excuse to leave the negotiating table.
The source said, “the Americans needed the negotiation for their lost face in the international arena and were unwilling to lower their expectations despite the defeat and stalemate in the war with Iran”.
It added, “Iran has no plans for the next round of talks”. |
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04-12-26 victor
Vice President JD Vance said Iranian negotiators refused to accept US terms for a deal, which he insisted had been “quite flexible.”
“We were quite accommodating. The president told us, ‘You need to come here in good faith and make your best effort to get a deal.’ We did that, and unfortunately, we weren’t able to make make any headway,” he said.
Vance suggested the primary sticking point was Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program.
“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer,” he said. “We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.” |
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04-12-26 victor
Vance says US gave Iran its "final and best offer" and was "flexible" in negotiations
Vice President JD Vance said Iranian negotiators refused to accept US terms for a deal, which he insisted had been “quite flexible.”
“We were quite accommodating. The president told us, ‘You need to come here in good faith and make your best effort to get a deal.’ We did that, and unfortunately, we weren’t able to make make any headway,” he said.
Vance suggested the primary sticking point was Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program.
“We leave here with a very simple proposal, a method of understanding that is our final and best offer,” he said. “We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.”
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04-12-26 victor
| spal, either way is fine. |
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04-12-26 spal
| Or maybe he wants a another trade war ... I am sure the uses of bases and flyover rules stung him. |
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04-12-26 victor
| spal, fine.. go for it. instead of blabbing about it. |
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04-12-26 spal
| He is threatening an embargo which he can under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which is outside of the trade treaty. |
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04-12-26 victor
spal, what is not?
no trade deal between the eu and the usa? |
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04-12-26 victor
spal, no worries about spain.
sanchez is way ahead of dt.. in china today.
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Sánchez estrecha vínculos con China en plena escalada contra Trump |
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04-12-26 spal
| Well it is certainly not, what it is not Vic. |
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04-12-26 victor
| spal, it's what it is. there is a trade deal between the usa and the eu. |
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04-12-26 spal
Bye Rioja, bring me some Chianti.
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Agree! |
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04-12-26 spal
| Victor - I just said Spain was asking for attention. Now it will get some. I know they are still playing footsie with Huawei. And yes I understand the EU coordination, just as you understand Trump's bloviating. |
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04-12-26 victor
Predictable
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is it?
for how long has dt been saying the same?
spain doesn't make its own trade deals.
no trade with spain means no trade with the eu. |
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04-12-26 spal
Spal, very nice, working for Musk requires very strong knowledge on the field, congrats!
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It is for a job as a process engineer in the Starlink factory. He is pretty far from conventional, no formal degree, uni dropout, hobbyist mentality, the kind that automates things for fun, a Linux fanatic, very low desire to promote or sell himself ... so I guess a perfect fit. |
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