11-06-26 spal
Alvopetro Q3 update released tonight -and how I avoid the world melting down and secure solid dividend flows and an expanding resource base.
This is a classic cash-generative compounder - a high-netback, long-life natural gas production in Brazil’s Tucano Basin, supplemented by high-margin liquid yields and short-cycle Canadian heavy oil cash flows.
It does not rely on speculative exploration, but rather is a self-funded, asset-backed dividend and reserve-expansion engine.
The co finds itself at a pivotal operational transition point. Generating $14.3 million in Q3 funds flow at an 86% operating netback margin ($60.87/boe), the company's core Brazilian natural gas production easily covers its US$0.12/share quarterly dividend (~7% yield) while maintaining $32.6 million in raw cash reserves.
Recent subsurface results at Murucututu—specifically the 183-G2 well encountering 96.9 meters of net pay 65 meters updip—confirm substantial reservoir scale and continuity, while a 700% acreage expansion in the Tucano Basin secures multi-decade inventory. This is new news and good news.
Future Trajectory
Over the next 12 to 24 months, Alvopetro is positioned for a fundamental equity re-rating driven by three key operational phases:
Completing the 4x expansion of field processing and pipeline capacity (from 150 to 600 e3m3/d) removes the physical bottleneck on gas monetization.
Bringing the 183-G2 well on stream accelerates production volumes toward 4,500+ boepd and triggers formal conversion of logged pay into 1P/2P Proved & Probable Developed Reserves during the GLJ audit. This is key - you have to connect to declare reserves.
Multi-basin growth—combining high-netback Brazilian gas with fast-payback Canadian heavy oil—drives funds flow beyond $65M+ annually, expanding Net Asset Value (NAV) toward a CAD $12.50 – $17.50+ valuation range. |
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11-06-26 spal
BREAKING: South Korea’s KOSPI collapses -9%, triggering a trading halt, after opening for the first time since today’s US market decline.
Whoops |
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11-06-26 spal
Argentina served as the primary regional liquidity and asset-clearing hub through which siphoned Ueno funds were converted and stored, while simultaneously offering the geographical and legal corridor for political figures seeking to evade domestic prosecution.
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11-06-26 spal
| Honestly this is a crying shame for Paraguay, but most of the elites across these countries are fundamentally and irredeemably corrupt. There will be no real progress until they break this cycle. |
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11-06-26 spal
| He fucked around and now will find out. |
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11-06-26 spal
As ex-pres Peña automatically becomes a life senator and as such currently enjoys immunity from prosecution. The senate there needs to vote (2/3 rds) to strip this - this will happen IMO. This is about 48 hours away. He has to skip prior to Interpol Red Notices. This will likely be via car or light plane to Uruguay or Argentina where he will claim political asylum and fight extradition.
His finger prints are all over this scam - which was a scheme designed to skim mostly state deposits and push out loans to related parties. He was an important shareholder of Ueno Bank - which he kept as president and is deeply implicated. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
Vic, yes my friend, the institutional path is super clear.
Q: who invests in a country where the lady president can wake one day with Miraflores surrounded by heavily armed narcos and no one to defend her? |
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11-06-26 victor
Federico A. Black B.
Vocero de la presidencia de Paraguay asegura que Santiago Peña está en Paraguay y que afrontará (mañana) el juicio político en su contra.
Dice que por temas de seguridad no puede decir en qué parte de la capital está el Presidente. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
Rubio ready to eject.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/11/05/rubio-considering-resigning-report-says/
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11-06-26 victor
carib
Further Sanctions on the Cuban Regime’s Foreign Military Support and Illicit Revenue Networks
Press Statement
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/11/further-sanctions-on-the-cuban-regimes-foreign-military-support-and-illicit-revenue-networks/
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11-06-26 victor
carib, see what i mean? good.
today:
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Secretary Marco Rubio
The United States will not tolerate subversive communist networks in our hemisphere.
The Marxist Cuban regime relies on a web of state-owned enterprises, joint ventures, and offshore intermediaries to keep its systems running, and its foreign backers supply the military equipment that helps sustain the regime’s military forces and enables persistent threats to the American homeland.
Today, I'm sanctioning eight entities and two individuals associated with the regime’s financial and shipping network, state-owned import and technical-support entities, and China-based suppliers of the regime's military forces. |
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11-06-26 victor
pana, maria corina explains it today.
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DECLARACIÓN DE MADRID:
Con motivo de la XXX Cumbre Iberoamericana
https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/2118338024949842042 |
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11-06-26 savo
| wasn't Peña the one saying Maduro was a crook? |
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11-05-26 panasonic
"fortunately.. MCM is no MAGA"
Carib, in your opinion how it plays out from here?
Only things I do know:
1) Narcos are still there, armed to the teeth and w/deep pockets.
2) Zero chance that US puts boots in ground. |
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11-05-26 victor
Federico A. Black B.
Santiago Peña, presidente renunciado de Paraguay, habría huido hacia Argentina.
Un vuelo privado con matrícula N680XP salió desde Asunción, Paraguay, hacia Mendoza Argentina donde llegó a las 4pm (hora Argentina) |
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11-05-26 victor
chile senators worried..
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Un grupo de senadores solicitó información a la Superintendencia de Pensiones sobre las inversiones que mantienen las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) chilenas en Paraguay y su eventual exposición a la crisis financiera desatada tras la intervención de Ueno Bank.
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11-05-26 victor
py has 7m people..
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The accounts of nearly 3 million clients of Ueno Bank are frozen. |
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11-05-26 victor
spal, his resignation was NOT accepted by congress..
juicio politico right now.
first phase announced by the central bank:
withdrawal of clients with max ~1600 usd in the failed bank (10 million guaranies).. as long as they bank in some other place in py, and have no debts with the failed bank.
so if you owe $1 to the failed bank and/or have no other bank acct in py, you are screwed, for now.. even if you have less than 1600 usd.
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11-05-26 carib
| “Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies,” Romney said in a Wednesday afternoon post on the social platform X describing why the GOP lost.. |
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11-05-26 carib
| fortunately.. MCM is no MAGA. |
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11-05-26 carib
Merlino: what I see is Vance already jumping ship, which should indicate he plans to run. De Santis making similar noises.
If one assumes GOP will lose anyway, Rubio would be wise to wait for better times (two candidates from Florida are too much) and fix Veny in the meantime, to get a good track record for future usage.
I might be wrong, of course. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
I would expect an acceleration of job cuts in tech.
Fwiw AGI is here to stay, right now they must be discussing between them "humans stay or go?" LOL |
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11-05-26 panasonic
"so ma elvira has not won yet"
....no se salvo ni el gato. |
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11-05-26 victor
carib, i could also argue that, after the midterm results, there is even more pressure than before on the dt admin to fix vz and cuba..
they have 2 years..
if they don't, dems will win the trifecta in 2028. |
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11-05-26 victor
| carib, maria corina is NOT maga.. she has good friends on both parties. |
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11-05-26 Merlino
but if Rubio stays or quits.
......................
A done deal it seems...this may be one main reason behind weakness in veni bond prices |
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11-05-26 carib
| I think the main issue, concerning Veny, is not Maria elvira, but if Rubio stays or quits. |
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11-05-26 victor
pana, there could be a recount of fl-27, given how close it is..
so ma elvira has not won yet. |
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11-05-26 carib
A potential coalition led by Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot and including United Torah Judaism (UTJ) would hold 55 seats in the Knesset, falling short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. However, it would reduce Netanyahu's bloc to just 46 seats, potentially allowing Eisenkot to form a minority government with Ra'am and the Joint List abstaining.
JP |
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11-05-26 spal
Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña has RESIGNED following the central bank’s seizure of Ueno Bank.
The bank had close financial ties to the President, who previously held shares in its parent company.
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How is it that nobody seems to be able to do their jobs these days! |
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11-05-26 panasonic
| Spal, yep and trying to get out of some private fund in a meltdown must be a nightmare. |
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11-05-26 carib
| PS: maybe Panas was right in starting to load UST when yields reached 5,6%. |
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11-05-26 carib
| Panas: I have been pessimistic on human nature for a very long while, sadly. |
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11-05-26 spal
| Some private credit fund or other will likely come undone now ... NASTY's fall has got to be starting to tear at their client base. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
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11-05-26 panasonic
| Vance is the godfather of ICE, guy has zero chance against pinkita. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Carib, Savo..oops, did you join pessimistic pana?
I don't feel lonely now, not only you, have many friends that joined in past two days (nasty-daq included). |
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11-05-26 spal
| Yes - I am coming to that view also. He is mostly an empty shell looking for power for its own sake. |
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11-05-26 carib
Sorry SPAL, misunderstanding.
BTW: I think JD Vance is far worse than Trump. |
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11-05-26 spal
| Carib - since when did I say it was a good or a bad joke? It is called a slightly ironic subversion of expectations --- n'est pas? I liked the outcome (to be clear). |
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11-05-26 carib
spal: Margareth Thatcher and Golda Meir walk into a bar in heaven.
Any reasonable patron regretting they are not BoJo and Bibi?
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11-05-26 carib
Savo: true.. but Putin will never be made accountable for the tens of billions he stole.
A doubt Xi is personally corrupt to a large scale, but when you rule a large power, you do not need to steal..
People with brains and money are still arriving in europe and the USA from Russia and China for good reasons...
Let us not self destroy such good reasons.. |
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11-05-26 spal
A Black woman, an Indigenous woman, and a Latina walk into a bar.
The bartender says,
"What can I get you, Governors?” |
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11-05-26 savo
| irrespective of political opinions.... Putin and Xi are more reliable than any western politician facing the electorate every 2 years. |
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11-05-26 savo
Carib at his absolute best!
If you get elected with the promise to avoid wars, make life more affordable and strengthen the country... and then engage in wars you do not win, self destroy your existing alliances, make things less affordable with tariffs and destroy the credibility capital of the country, whilst enriching your family and cronies.. you can expect to be clobbered at the next election..
Hats off! |
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11-05-26 carib
Panas: Trump is way less reliable than Xi. But I would prefer a third option. MAGA became in practice MASA (make small again).
Concerning Musk.. when you enter politics, you should understand how that works in the first place. Making DOGE actually work would have helped republicans much more that throwing millions into the Paxton campaign. Getting good candidates instead of spineless crooks would also have helped.
If you get elected with the promise to avoid wars, make life more affordable and strengthen the country... and then engage in wars you do not win, self destroy your existing alliances, make things less affordable with tariffs and destroy the credibility capital of the country, whilst enriching your family and cronies.. you can expect to be clobbered at the next election.. |
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11-05-26 spal
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11-05-26 spal
NBIS
NEBIUS GROUP N V A A
119.62 (-15.47%)
Brace for impact |
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11-05-26 spal
| MU - off 10% today so far |
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11-05-26 spal
| Panas yes - NBIS looking lear like today. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
| Hyperscalers already in red, buckle up. |
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11-05-26 savo
If You Can’t Build It, Why Buy The Chips?
Goldman’s trading desk had the cleanest answer, describing “the clear rotation into hyperscalers with Semis being used as a source of funds.” The logic comes in two steps:
* “If compute is more scarce because you cannot build more capacity, you can sell it for at a higher price.”
* “If you cannot build more capacity, you are spending less, which in turn may lead to buying back stock again.”
In other words, a moratorium turns every data center already standing into a toll road, and the hyperscalers own most of the toll roads. Goldman’s top IG credit trader Kevin Boova made the same point from the bond side, seeing “pretty big supply/demand imbalances in compute... which should be a big positive for infrastructure already in place and thus the hypers.” Hyperscaler CDS duly tightened, even as data center CDS blew out to fresh 2026 highs. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Carib, do you feel ok having Chinese total supremacy?
Me no, Musk did put his money where his mouth was, and admitted that game is over.
Hope we had more like him. |
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11-05-26 carib
Eisenkot secures support of 67 MKs, including Arab parties, while Netanyahu holds 46, UTJ abstains
Bibi out? |
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11-05-26 carib
| Panas: engaging in the wrong politics is never a solution. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
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11-05-26 panasonic
Carib, Musk engaged in politics bcz understands the tech gap between US and China is closing very fast.
Big winner of midterms is China, already moratorium on Data Centers is now a reality...China scored a big one.
Sadly things are playing out as me have been posting here, and believe me, I really really wanted to be wrong. |
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11-05-26 carib
Panas: it is most unwise, in my opinion, to be a big entrepreneur selling consumer goods and publicly engaging in extreme partisan political actions at the same time.
Musk is a genius, but Tesla loses market shares because the party Musk supports is against electric cars, because half of the customers object to Musk political views, and because now china produces better cars. Starlink was another excellent idea, in my opinion, but given its defence implications, it would be reasonable to nationalise the management of its satellites. |
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11-05-26 carib
| Panas: solar power energy today is dirty cheap.It is oil that is expensive. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Vic, me found interesting that it was young people in TX that voted to eject Musk (against DT was a given).
Long story short, if they are worried AI will kill jobs, they are right, but kicking Musk puts TX as a hostile place to invest and only an ignorant believes AI is like a railroad, that needs physical rails in their area to expand. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
"btw, aoc won 78% of the vote!"
The "poors" factory is delivering :-(
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11-05-26 panasonic
"I guess the opposite might be more realistic"
Carib, indeed China quadrupled their power capacity in last 20 years.
One of the voters reasons to reject data centers is prices of energy, guess who blocked building more power plants, democrats!
Now they want to block data centers... |
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11-05-26 carib
| Victor: buy should "the west" be more efficient and fast than China in producing robots? I guess the opposite might be more realistic.. |
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11-05-26 victor
| pana, btw, aoc won 78% of the vote! |
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11-05-26 victor
pana, WS young people voted for data centers moratorium
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i think they voted against dt..
and against musk, particularly in texas, where he lives. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Savo, that could apply to private placements.
Privileges are not transferred when buyer taps open markets...tdy's sell-off is just a bunch of idiots with terrible timing. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Vic, Musk is the only guy I would hear at this point abt. future roll of AI.
My playbook is much simpler, no default, no big bangs.
US young people voted for data centers moratorium; future belongs to them.
The most probable outcome, US replicates the EU model. |
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11-05-26 savo
pana.. carib... i think the coin was a bribe mechanism to have "access".
they made than money back and more with advanced info about DT's next post on social media.
Of course there were also the naîves... |
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