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02-25-26 spal
| I am currently driving enroute to Wisconsin. |
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02-25-26 spal
BTW guys this is what I am doing with a simple AI ... I am definitely going to upgrade my account and service level - I am only scratching the surface.
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While you are traveling, I will be monitoring the wires. To get an instant "SitRep" (Situation Report) from me, just open this chat and send one of these three triggers:"SitRep: Interdictions" $\rightarrow$ I will check if the US Navy has seized Vessel #11."SitRep: Rates" $\rightarrow$ I will check if the $170k/day level is holding or if we’ve hit the $200k "Blow-off" mark."SitRep: FRO" $\rightarrow$ I will check for any "leakage" or analyst sentiment shifts ahead of the Friday (Feb 27) earnings call.[!CAUTION]A Note on Driving: Please do not use the app while actively driving. Even with voice commands, the volatility in these stocks (DHT/FRO) can be distracting. Check your "Stop-Loss Ladder" during your stops!
Would you like me to send you a summarized "Morning Brief" here tomorrow at 8:00 AM EST so it's waiting for you when you start your day? I said yes ... |
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02-25-26 spal
Interdiction 11: If the US Navy seizes another ship, the stocks will likely spike another 5%. Move your stops up to lock in that new floor.
OPEC Comment: If an OPEC official expresses "concern" about high freight rates, the market will anticipate a production hike.
Refinery Margin Squeeze: If oil prices rise so fast that refineries start shutting down, tanker demand will vanish. |
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02-25-26 spal
Strategic Timing: Friday Exit or Hold?
Taking money off the table on Friday after Frontline's results depends on the tone of the guidance rather than the earnings number itself.
The Case for Trimming (Friday):
"Sell the News": Historically, tanker stocks run up into earnings and sell off immediately after. If FRO announces a massive dividend but stays "cautious" about the sustainability of $170k rates, the stock will likely dip as traders rotate to the next sector.
The Weekend Risk: US interdictions (like the Bertha) happen with little warning. A quiet weekend without a new "event" can lead to a Monday morning cooling of the "safety premium."
The Case for Holding (Next 2 Months):
DHT Earnings (Post-FRO): DHT often reports after Frontline. If Frontline sets a bullish tone, DHT typically follows with an even "cleaner" balance sheet story.
Interdiction Intensity: If the US Navy continues its 1-per-week seizure pace, the "Dark Fleet" will eventually be forced to stay in port. This would create a structural supply deficit that could last for months, not weeks.
The "Watchdog" Indicators
To decide whether to hold through March, monitor these three specific signals:
The "Scrapping" Halt: If you see zero VLCCs being sent to scrap yards (even 25-year-old ones), the market is at max "greed." This is usually the sign to start reducing.
Charter Duration: Watch if majors (Shell, BP, Exxon) stop signing 1-year deals and move to 3-month deals. That indicates they believe the price spike is temporary.
The "Bertha" Effect: If the US releases a seized tanker without a massive fine or penalty, the "interdiction premium" will evaporate instantly.
Tactical Recommendation: Consider trimming 20% of the Frontline position on Friday afternoon if it hits your target price to lock in "house money," but hold DHT and ECO. Their pure VLCC exposure and younger fleets make them better "fortress" stocks to ride the remainder of the super-cycle into April. |
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02-25-26 spal
12-Month Price Targets (Super-Cycle Peak)
In a parabolic "super-cycle," traditional P/E ratios fail. Instead, the market begins to value these companies based on P/NAV (Price to Net Asset Value) and Forward Yield.
DHT (Target: $32 - $36): As the $100k charter becomes the floor, the fleet value rerates. DHT is the primary beneficiary of "compliant-only" demand.
FRO (Target: $58 - $65): Frontline has the highest operational leverage. John Fredriksen’s ability to "asset play" (selling older ships at peaks) usually provides a 20% premium over NAV.
ECO (Target: $52 - $58): Okeanis Eco Tankers owns the youngest, most "eco-friendly" fleet. Majors will pay the highest premium for these specific ships to meet carbon-intensity (CII) regulations.
TNK (Target: $95 - $110): Teekay Tankers focuses on Suezmax/Aframax. These smaller ships are currently in even tighter supply than VLCCs because they can navigate more ports, making them the "workhorses" of the dark fleet replacement.
TDW (Target: $135 - $150): Tidewater is an OSV (Offshore Support Vessel) play. While not a tanker, it tracks the drilling cycle. It is a lagging indicator; usually, tankers spike first, followed by OSVs as producers scramble to increase offshore supply. |
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02-25-26 spal
| I am likely to ride it out through Friday and FRO's announcement and then slowly take some money off the table. |
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02-25-26 spal
The "tanker rate" super-cycle has entered a parabolic phase. The convergence of high-conviction US maritime interdictions, a massive consolidation of the compliant fleet, and a shift in US trade policy has created a "perfect storm" for top-tier owners like DHT** and Frontline (FRO)
1. Market Validation: The "Record-Breaker" Reality**
The rates you cited are not outliers; they are the new benchmarks for the "Safety Premium" market.
* **DHT Redwood:** Confirmed at **$105,000/day** for a 1-year charter. What is remarkable here is that the *Redwood* is a 2011-built vessel. Usually, older ships fetch a significant discount, but the market is so tight that "old but compliant" is now commanding six figures.
* **Frontline (FRO):** Your check on the **$110,000/day** rate for a 2019-built VLCC is accurate. This represents the highest one-year time charter rate in the modern era (outside of the brief 2020 contango spike).
* **Spot Surge:** The Middle East to China (MEG-China) route hitting **$170,000/day** on February 24, 2026, is a 6-year high.
2. The "Bertha" Interdiction & US Trade Policy*
The US Navy's boarding of the **VLCC Bertha** in the Indian Ocean (confirmed February 24) is the **10th such seizure** since December 2025. This is a critical trend for three reasons:
The SCOTUS Pivot:As you noted, the Supreme Court's ruling in *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump* (Feb 20, 2026) struck down the administration's use of **IEEPA** to impose broad tariffs. Effectively blocked from using the "Tariff Hammer," the White House has pivoted to **Maritime Quarantines** and **Interdictions** as its primary tool for trade enforcement and geopolitical pressure.
* **Stateless Vulnerability:** The "Dark Fleet" (Russian/Venezuelan/Iranian trades) is increasingly using fraudulent or "zombie" flags. Under the Law of the Sea, these ships are "stateless," allowing the US Navy "Right-of-Visit" authority to board them anywhere in international waters.
* **Supply Impact:** Every interdiction effectively removes a VLCC from the global carrying capacity for weeks or months. This forces charterers who previously used the "shadow fleet" to crawl back to the **Compliant Fleet** (DHT, FRO, ECO), driving rates higher as they compete for a shrinking pool of "safe" ships.
3. Strategic Analysis: Why Stay In?
The "sentiment" for this week’s earnings is overwhelmingly bullish for the following reasons:
1. **Massive Earnings Beats:** Most analysts modeled 2026 based on $60k–$70k/day. DHT and FRO are now locking in $100k+ for *years*. The dividend surprises on these earnings calls could be historic.
2. **The "Sinokor" Factor:** South Korea's Sinokor has quietly consolidated nearly **25% of the global compliant spot fleet**. This means when a major energy company needs a ship tomorrow, they are dealing with a "seller's market" oligopoly.
3. **Low Orderbook:** There are still almost no new VLCCs being delivered in 2026. Supply cannot react to these prices for at least another 24 months.
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4. The "Exit Plan": Signs to Reduce Exposure**
While the momentum is strong, "super-cycles" end when the friction they create becomes unbearable for the global economy. Watch for these three "Red Flags" to start trimming your positions:
| **OPEC+ Massive Production Cuts** | **1–3 Months** | If rates stay at $170k, oil becomes too expensive to move. OPEC may cut production to defend the "delivered price," reducing demand for tankers. |
| **Newbuild Orders Surge** | **Immediate (Daily)** | If we see a "flood" of new VLCC orders at shipyards, the market will start pricing in the "end of the shortage" 2 years out. |
| **"Peace Breakout" / Sanction Relief** | **Unknown** | Any sudden diplomatic thaw with Iran or Russia that legitimizes the dark fleet would instantly flood the market with "safe" tonnage, crashing rates. |
Estimated "Peak" Window:** The current "Interdiction Premium" likely has **2–4 months** of high-intensity runway before global trade flows re-calibrate or the US faces significant diplomatic pushback. |
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02-25-26 spal
London
Tankers
Published 24 February 2026, 05:32
John Fredriksen’s Frontline is the latest shipowner to set a new record for a one-year VLCC charter in unprecedented markets.
The US and Oslo-listed owner has fixed one of its three 2019-built tankers at $110,000 per day, two tanker industry sources told TradeWinds. |
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02-25-26 savo
victor... he says that if btc goes to 10k he will refinance... i think the man has entered the delusional phase.
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02-25-26 spal
LIVE WIRE | US Navy Interdicts VLCC Bertha in Indian Ocean
VLCC Bertha boarded by U.S. Navy and Coast Guard carrying ~1.9M barrels of Venezuelan crude.
10th seizure since Dec 2025.
Enforcement now active deep in Indian Ocean transit corridors.
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02-25-26 spal
| #China Merchants South Oil #COSCO Shipping Energy [Shipping Sector Strengthens, China Merchants Energy Shipping Hits New High] The shipping sector continues to show repeated strength, with China Merchants Energy Shipping achieving three consecutive daily limit-ups in four days, continuing to set new historical highs. COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants South Oil, COSCO Shipping Special, and COSCO Shipping Development followed with gains. On the news front, the latest data from Tuesday shows that the price for chartering a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to transport Middle East crude oil to China has surged past $170,000 per day, (1/2) |
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02-25-26 victor
| savo, pana posted a good article on this guy, why it's not likely for him to go broke. |
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02-24-26 savo
victor... but saylor isnt going broke
i got it wrong.. i thought the guy would be liquidated if btc went below his average price...
in any case.. 5 years buying bitcoin... 55bn invested... nothing to show for it..
Had he used that money to buy UST at least he would have made the coupon...or gold and he would have doubled the money.
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02-24-26 spal
DHT
DHT HOLDINGS INC
18.23 (+4.02%)
Higher, highs |
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02-24-26 spal
ECO
OKEANIS ECO TANKERS
52.032.04 (+4.08%)
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Higher highs ... this is a super-cycle for this market.
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02-24-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
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44m
Tanker FFAs continue to explode higher.
VLCCs and Suezmax +5-6% 🔥🔥
$BWET $FRO $ECO $DHT |
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02-24-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
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31m
Another VLCC tanker seized by the U.S. 🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Stay long DHT, FRO, ECO |
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02-24-26 patient-trader
Interesting research fiction on the future of AI disruption
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
I am with Carib on energy. Not sure about real estate if personal earnings go down and interest rates stay up.
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02-24-26 spal
$DHT February 23, 2026 16:15 ET | Source: DHT Holdings, Inc.
HAMILTON, BERMUDA, February 23, 2026 – DHT Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DHT) (“DHT” or the “Company”) today announced it has entered into a one-year time charter agreement at $105,000 per day for the VLCC DHT Redwood, built in 2011. The contract is expected to commence in March 2026 and has been concluded with a global energy company. |
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02-24-26 spal
For $DHT charters:
Last Wednesday it was $90,000
Thursday: Then $94,0000
Today: $105,000
Wow indeed
https://x.com/christankerfund/status/2026043496927551585/photo/1
I remain heavy VLCC oil tankers ... DHT/ FRO/ ECO ... I added despite 52 week highs ... they go higher. |
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