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06-12-26 spal
| If a surprise peace deal materialized, TRMD and its peer group—like Frontline (FRO) or Okeanis (ECO)—would almost certainly face an immediate, sharp algorithmic sell-off. The market would instantly discount the "supercycle" narrative and price in a rapid normalization of earnings. |
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06-12-26 spal
TRMD - Lock-In Rates for Q2 are Spectacular
The market is adjusting to TORM’s insanely strong forward-booking data. As of their mid-May update, TORM had already covered 57% of its Q2 2026 earning days at an astonishing average rate of $71,494/day.
To put that in perspective, their average fleet-wide TCE rate in Q1 was $34,937/day. Q2 cash generation is structurally locked in to be a absolute blockbuster, which means the upcoming August earnings report has a sky-high probability of blowing numbers out of the water.
Decent position. |
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06-12-26 Merlino
Now the issue is: can recovery go up to 50% of claim relatively soon.. or is it better to get out @25% of claim and forget the issue?
..............................
Assuming one has paid about 25 for each 100 nominal with a 10% coupon it does not look a bad idea to be patient and to hold if 25% recovery on total claim is the minimum with the optionality of a potentially higher recovery...or I am mistaken? |
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06-11-26 savo
Peter B
@realpeteyb123
The timing is almost poetic, isn't it?
This morning we get a scorching hot CPI print showing a 4.2% annual rate, followed immediately by a massive 1.1% wholesale PPI shocker.
The macro math says the market should be firmly rolling over.
But what happens instead?
Miraculously, right as the data hits, headline "rumors" of an imminent peace/cease deal with Iran get blasted across the media, oil artificially pulls back, and the algorithms trigger a massive 3% short-squeeze pump.
And what a total coincidence that this massive liquidity injection happens exactly 24 hours before the historic, record-breaking $75 Billion SpaceX IPO debuts on the Nasdaq tomorrow morning.
The entire administration, Wall Street desks, and tech insiders are deeply backed into this mega-listing.
They couldn’t afford to let a couple of ugly, blistering inflation prints and a market that has started to correct, spoil the largest tech debut in stock market history.
So, they paint the tape green, squeeze the shorts, and pretend inflation doesn't exist for 6 hours and that this time the deal is different.
Maybe I’m wrong, but the patterns are there, and the people are sheep.
Don't buy the hype. This is a classic, manufactured "liquidity pump" to protect the IPO launch.
The structural inflation problems haven't changed.
Let the tech insiders have their party today, and tomorrow…the macro reality always wins in the end.
Shame on you all, this market manipulation is how corrections will turn to crashes and the people will lose their money.
NOBODY with a large filling will tell you the truth cause either GREED has take them hostage or they are part of the MAGA paid influencer campaign.
Black swan setups.
https://x.com/realpeteyb123/status/2065163198437728433 |
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06-11-26 savo
I hope it does not go to 25k.. because it would be a very bad sign for global economy..
carib... fiat is a choice... fractional banking and subsequent bailouts are a choice...QE is a choice...overborrowing and overspending are a choice...
the price of real assets is a consequence of those choices.
In the World of Savo... there would be no fiat... no fractional banking... no QE...no TBTF... interest rates would be determinded by the market... no deficit..no overspending... and no taxes... only rates.
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06-11-26 pillz
Trump calls off attacks on Iran: "Talks have reached the highest level"
Thu Jun 11 17:33:43 2026 EDT
The U.S. president explained that, despite the suspension of the offensive, the naval blockade remains in effect.
U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that he is “canceling the attacks and bombings scheduled against Iran tonight.” He justified his decision by stating that “talks with the Islamic Republic have reached the highest level of the Iranian leadership and have been approved,” which is why he chose to cancel the planned offensive.
In his post, the Republican leader added: “The discussions and final points have been approved, both in concept and in detail, by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.” However, he specified that the naval blockade will remain in effect “until this transaction is finalized. The date and location of the signing will be announced shortly.”
Reports indicate that this decision was preceded by talks to end hostilities that lasted late into the night on Wednesday. The outlet reported that Qatari envoy Ali Al-Thawadi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi believed they had reached an agreement that day that both Tehran and Washington could accept. The key points would include how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, how to release frozen Iranian assets, and what will happen with the nuclear program.
However, the news agency reported that Iran has not yet signed any document or memorandum of understanding with the United States. This contradicts Trump’s statement that “the final points have been approved, both in concept and in great detail, by all parties involved.”
While the Republican president raised expectations of a possible agreement amid a war now in its fourth month, this is not the first time something like this has happened. On other occasions, he has claimed to be close to a deal, and he has also mentioned that Iranian leaders have accepted peace terms that they have not actually agreed to. By one estimate, this is the 38th time he has promised an imminent peace agreement.
What has actually occurred is a series of cross-attacks and the exchange of various messages that have heightened tensions in the Middle East. In fact, prior to the announcement, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. military would strike Iran “very hard tonight.” He spoke of “seizing the island of Kharg and other oil infrastructure sites,” as well as “taking full control of their oil and gas markets, much like what we’ve done with Venezuela.” |
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06-11-26 carib
(US/Iran)
It's a Quantum Deal and therefore subject to the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle.
If you know what it is then you can't know when it's happening & if you know when it's happening you can't know what it is.
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06-11-26 carib
Savo: true. Gold had a nice ride from 1k to 5k+.
I hope it does not go to 25k.. because it would be a very bad sign for global economy.. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
| Savo, agree...we all need fixed income, speculation is for excess money, which can be a little or a lot depending on each situation. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
| ECB hiked maybe that helped gold? |
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06-11-26 pillz
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06-11-26 pillz
Centerview Partners was in negotiations with Venezuela for a contract worth at least $150 million for its work as the sole financial adviser on the country’s debt restructuring.
The draft contract included a fee of 0.1% of the total debt if the restructuring proves successful, without a monetary cap, and a monthly retainer of $750,000, plus expenses.
Centerview disputed the figures, stating that the contract has not been finalized and the numbers speculated on vastly overstate the expected terms of Centerview’s engagement with the Republic of Venezuela.
Centerview, Venezuela Discussed $150 Million Fee for Debt Rework
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/centerview-venezuela-discussed-150-million-fee-for-debt-rework?srnd=phx-markets |
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06-11-26 savo
pana.. I simply invest in emerging market and HY bonds that pay interest and provide an occasional capital gain...that is all i really do.
I also have some gold, silver, gold miners and silver miners which I do not trade, just hold.
I have them for the very simple reason that gold and silver have behaved very well since fiat and the miners because they are printing money.
Yesterday cash was king... today gold and silver are king... and who knows tomorrow.. or in the next hour?
I think it is valuable that I have brought precious metals back into the conversation here...
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06-11-26 savo
carib.. i see precious metals as an asset class comparable to bonds, equities, real estate... etc...
not comparable with stock picking... somebody clever enough to spot the next Micron will do better than gold but also better than bondss and real estate and spx.
and definitively not comparable to creating a successful company.
in a world of stable fiat... one does not need to deflate... but we do not live in a world of stable fiat... irrespective of us paying our bills in fiat...and our bank accounts being denominated in fiat.
i think it has behaved as a good deflator...not on a day to day basis but over time...
Gold is good because it has unique properties... but i am very interested to hear about other deflators.
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06-11-26 spal
every single asset is subject to pump and dump.
===
Which is why rental properties are a solid part of my portfolio. |
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06-11-26 carib
Example of a supposed "good idea" turning into a significant headache: in 2016-17, I thought that accumulating Veny bonds in the 20s could prove a "good idea", expecting a default, with a subsequent restructuring with good recovery, given size of oil reserves.
Wally was in fact right, and we should have all sold.
Trying to buy very large nominals below 10 cents during default and under sanctions was a "good idea" but difficult to implement.
Some vulture funds, still, managed to execute it.
Buying post sanctions proved a "good idea" only because Trump decided to kidnap Maduro, something that was not easy predicting.
Now the issue is: can recovery go up to 50% of claim relatively soon.. or is it better to get out @25% of claim and forget the issue?
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06-11-26 panasonic
Carib, yes that post was kind of not-carib strategy, reason why I asked.
Your last post sounds more like you ;-) |
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06-11-26 carib
| I understand, Panas.. but good ideas.. must be transformed into significant profits by investing significant money, with a several years horizon.. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
"plus one good idea every year"
That was my reply to yr above post.
Personally, I'm very lousy at doing that, me take profits too early.
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06-11-26 carib
To give practical examples..
1) buying Gold when it was just above 1.000 $.. was a good boring idea all the way to 5.000 $
2) buying PDVsa at the end of the sanction period, @10-15.. and selling it now @40-50.. was good idea
3) buy good semiconductor stocks when the AI frenzy started.. and selling now.. was a "good idea"
4) buying AMPX @1$ and selling it @24$ two years later was an excellent idea.. in hindsight, but difficult to anticipate. Just luck. |
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06-11-26 carib
PS: occasionally adding 3% to your total return, actually changes nothing in the long term.Frequently (every few years, not every few days) having good investment ideas that produce several million (fiat currency) profit.. actually makes a difference, in the end of the long period.
10X or 20X is very rare.. but actually tripling or quadrupling in two-three years is quite enough.
the 10x+ objective is "speculative". the good boring ideas are those where the target is tripling.. and one invests millions, not peanuts. |
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06-11-26 carib
| Panas: I invest in "speculative" assets money I do not need, after making sure my boring assets produce at least twice the amount I spend. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
Pilly for instance is doing volatility many times a year, Spal momentum trading, Savo probably selects an asset an puts substantial in it, me doing call spreads.
If your goal is to add 3% to total yearly return, probably you need to put 3% of you asset and @10X you reach target, right? |
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06-11-26 panasonic
Carib, true to some here, as me wrote if you can keep with the volatility (your case invest in one 10~20x idea once a year).
What percentage is your initial investment from your liquid assets in speculative ideas? |
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06-11-26 carib
Imagine Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, or Sergei Brin, investing their initial capital in gold ingots, rather than in creating Microsoft, Apple and Google.
How wealthy would they be now?
Rather poor, actually. |
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06-11-26 carib
| IN FIAT, not IF FIAT (typo) |
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06-11-26 carib
Savo: to be practical... what % of your yearly expenses do you settle in Gold? I guess close to 0%, and I suspect close to 100% you settle if fiat convertible currencies.
If you hold 100% gold, every year you have to sell some of it, or borrow in fiat currencies with gold as collateral, to settle your bills.
Gold appreciates on average long term, but short term it can move up and down significantly.
If I but one ton of gold, 20 years later I still have a ton of gold, and its purchasing power in terms of real assets (houses, cars, boats, paintings, filet mignon, chocolate chip cookies and what else) can go up or down.
If I invest the equivalent fiat of a ton of gold in a real business (technology, energy, construction, services or what else) and am very good at it, 20 years later the business is worth a large multiple of its initial cost, and every year delivers a fat dividend, if desired, that I can transform into houses, boats, filet mignon, champagne or what else I desire. |
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06-11-26 victor
No entity paying me or requiring payments from me settles or proposes to settle in gold.
:-)))
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06-11-26 carib
PS: the war started on feb 28th, not march 2.
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06-11-26 carib
Savo: Gold is a rare metal, still used for central bank reserves, for jewelry, as a "reserve of value" or as a speculative asset. In the past, it was currency.
No entity paying me or requiring payments from me settles or proposes to settle in gold.
Inflation is the additional cost I have to pay for the same goods
I bought earlier, and I consider I am making profits if the value of my assets, in the currencies in which I spend, increases over time, after discounting inflation.
I know of no more practical way to account.
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06-11-26 savo
earth to carib...! earth to carib....!
gold is not an asset like any asset... gold is a monetary metal.. what the world considered cash since the beginning of time until a crook called nixon and his cabinet of crooks decided to take the US out of the gold standard.
The fact that there is a price of gold in fiat currency and that price can change due to supply and demand does not change the fact that gold is a better denominator than cash...
Cash lost 99% of its value since fiat... gold went up 100 times...so one went down from 100 to 1 the other from 1 to 100.
This Iran war was fabricated in order to know down the price of gold... that was the main objective.
The country that provides the reserve currency and needs to refinance 10 trn per year can not have the rest of the world dumnping the dollar and USTsat the rate in which they were doing it in 2025 and jan and feb 2026... so they activated the usual plan in this circumstance... invent a war which they launched on march 2. |
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06-11-26 carib
Daily Trump:
“At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America,”
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06-11-26 carib
| Panas: IMHO we just need assets that keep up with inflation.. plus one good idea every year.the good idea is an asset that produces substantial profits year after year.. or a stock that goes up 10X or 20X once. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
With all eyes on every asset via trillions in options, 2x 3x etfs, prediction markets Kalshi Malshi...every single asset is subject to pump and dump.
Even interest rates are a meme Fomo Yolo.
You will find 30 solid articles supporting the pump,
"Inflation will eat our assets" is the core story for staying exposed to bubbles.
If you are able to keep up with rotations at light speeds great, otherwise a 6~7% should do the trick for us colores, by accepting Inflation will eat part of our assets. |
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06-11-26 carib
Precisely: gold is an asset, like any other, not a metering device.
the meter is cash, and it is easily adjusted to inflation, if inflation is measured more or less correctly.Normally, holding short term government bonds covers most of the inflation degradation of the meter.
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06-11-26 savo
Only when it goes up
like every other asset! |
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06-11-26 pillz
Russell 2000: +14.3% YTD
S&P Mid Cap 400: +11.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: +8.3% YTD
S&P 500: +6.2% YTD
DJIA: +3.9% YTD |
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06-11-26 spal
is it no more gold is king ? :-))
Only when it goes up ...
LOL
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06-11-26 pillz
Cash is king?
//
is it no more gold is king ? :-)) |
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