03-22-26 amateur
China is the chess master.
All other players live in a fantasy world. Europe believes that Iran would not go nuclear, ot that it will be a “good” neutral.
DT has lost all restraint and is just a senile, agressive, irresponsible clown, controlling the worlds most powefull arsenal.
Israel has some brains but depends on the clown.
World has become ugly… |
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03-22-26 amateur
Powel praises Volker as model…
https://assets.bwbx.io/s3/readings/TC7RZMKK3NYD1774139081113.mp3
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03-22-26 spal
The Deadline: As of Saturday evening, President Trump has given Tehran 48 hours to "fully open, without threat" the Strait of Hormuz.
The Threat: If the Strait remains paralyzed, the U.S. has threatened to "obliterate" Iranian power plants, starting with the largest facilities.
The Dubai Impact: This has triggered a fresh wave of panic at Al Maktoum International (DWC). Families who were "waiting it out" are now flooding the airport, fearing that a U.S. strike on the Iranian mainland will lead to an unconstrained retaliatory "carpet-drone" attack on Dubai’s desalination plants. |
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03-22-26 spal
| Saudi analyst claims the ultimate nightmare for Iran: If Saudi Arabia enters the war, they will activate a defense pact with Pakistan and rally 50 Muslim nations against Tehran. A massive regional escalation could be imminent. |
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03-22-26 spal
Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central HQ Spokesperson:
“If Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy infrastructure, information technology systems, and desalination facilities belonging to the United States and the regime in the region will be targeted.” |
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03-22-26 victor
| If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-22-26 savo
carib... this long report explains why it is very unimportant which barbudo is at the top (given that there is plenty of supply of them and they all think alike)
you can go directly to "How this Started"
https://x.com/radigancarter/status/2035073252134129757?s=48&t=JHX4_bRzg43q7__yG__aUw |
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03-21-26 carib
The latest assessments from both Israel and the United States suggest that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive but does not currently hold real control over Iran’s leadership apparatus, two sources told The Jerusalem Post.
According to one source familiar with the details, the balance of power appears to favor the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, rather than Khamenei himself.
“The more likely scenario is that the Revolutionary Guards are controlling him, not the other way around,” one well-informed source stated, adding that “in a few days, we will probably know more.” |
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03-21-26 victor
the economist cover, march 21st, 2026
Operation Blind Fury
https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1280,quality=80,format=auto/content-assets/images/20260321_DE_SQ_US.jpg
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03-21-26 panasonic
"Probably move even closer to countries like China and Russia"
is there something nothing closer than this?
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03-21-26 panasonic
Vic "not happening in spain"
Yep, as we discussed already. |
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03-21-26 victor
Without changing Iran’s government, US will have ‘failed’
Phillips O’Brien, chair of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, says anything short of dismantling Iran’s system of governance will effectively amount to defeat for the US.
“If at the end of this, the US goes home and leaves in power the present regime in Iran, which will be even more anti-American and will probably move even closer to countries like China and Russia, that will be a failure,” he told Al Jazeera.
“They will have thrown everything they can at Iran and fundamentally not changed the regime. They would have destroyed parts of its power, but it will rebuild.
“If we see Iran with the same basic ruling group at the end of this, that is a failure by the USA.” |
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03-21-26 victor
pana, not happening in spain.
no matter how much dt threatens the country.
trade embargo, pull out the military bases, nato, etc.
dt threatens spain, but then the u.s. military (quietly) tells spain that they won't leave the bases. :-))
//
Las amenazas de Donald Trump de retirar a Estados Unidos de las bases de Rota (Cádiz) y Morón (Sevilla) no preocupan por ahora al Gobierno. La ministra de Defensa, Margarita Robles, ha asegurado este sábado que no contemplan que se de esa situación y ha reclamado al presidente estadounidense que que respete la posición de España en contra de cualquier guerra al margen del derecho internacional. La titular de Defensa se ha pronunciado en ese sentido en en declaraciones a RTVE.
Trump afirmó este viernes que se plantea una retirada de las bases en España y otros países de la OTAN que, según él, no están colaborando en la seguridad del estrecho de Ormuz. ”Es un escenario que no contemplamos porque la posición de España ha sido siempre clara, honesta y comprometida. Nosotros hemos dicho claramente que esta guerra no es nuestra guerra. Entendemos que no puede haber guerras al margen del derecho internacional”, ha replicado Robles. |
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03-21-26 spal
How is an Iran without nukes of any relevance to the american voter that has to foot the bill?
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Yes - they would have taken over the Strait any way. They have imperial designs and Carib said they have fanatical zeal. |
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03-21-26 spal
| Savo ... war was coming any way. Iran's reactions prove this. |
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03-21-26 savo
| pana ... europe is fucked from wherever you look at it. |
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03-21-26 savo
spal... to clarify.... because ameicans are pissed off the incumbent has lost in the las 4 ocassions.
Meanining it has proved more difficult to defend the record of the incumbent than for the challenger to trash that record an promise a brighter future if you vote for me.
This is unrelated to the war... it only adds to the mess in which DT has put his country into.
Let's say DT manages to destroy the entire Iran and call it a victory (in any case he will call a victory whatever the outcome is) ...
but...what is in it for the american voter other than more taxes or more inflation? How is an Iran without nukes of any relevance to the american voter that has to foot the bill? |
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03-21-26 spal
| Panas - yes they will or it is going to be a LONG winter for them. |
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03-21-26 panasonic
| Savo, (better sooner than later) EU will have to hold their nose on DT and side with their allieds, aka Gulf States. |
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03-21-26 spal
Americans are pissed off...
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None of this matters one iota in the analysis Savo.
The French are pissed off ... so what?
The Australians are pissed off ... ok ... big deal.
The Canadians are pissed off ... well ... no one cares.
There are larger things at foot - and there are always bread and circuses. |
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03-21-26 spal
| Panas - excellent analysis. |
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03-21-26 spal
like in any chess game when players stop moving pieces and start eating pieces.
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Best of the Month ... LMAO |
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03-21-26 savo
pana...China exists.... it is as big as the US and militarily as powerful...
the only difference is the US has a reserve currency that allows them to consume what they do not produce, invest what they did not save and finance the army with other peoples money that they like to use in order to enrich military contractors, friends and families.
The problem now is that they have turned that army against the same people that finances it.
Now, those that were supposed to be defended by the army that they were financing are being insulted and mistreated by DT. Think Greenland. What do they do then?...befriend the other world power.
This mess that was unnecessarily fabricated by a megalomaniac administration. The good thing is that hopefully this administration will lose the lower house and probably the upper house too this year...and become the lamest duck of them all.
Since Obama, the incumbent has always lost... Hillary to Trump..Trump to Biden...Kamala to Trump. Americans are pissed off... they do not by the lies of the incumbents that everything is great. |
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03-21-26 ruspan
(2023)MOSCOW, July 31. /TASS/. Russia has a chance to become one of the world’s top three helium producers as early as in 2024 but domestic consumption will lag behind other countries, project director of fuel and energy sector analytical center Lola Ogrel said.
"Russia could join ranks of the top three helium producers as early as next year and Russia will become the largest product supplier to global markets in years to come. At the same time, having become a full-fledged player in the global helium market in terms of production and exports, Russia will lag behind leading countries in terms of its consumption level," Ogrel said, cited by the InfoTEK company.
The current geopolitical situation and sanctions against Russia have meant a drop in production output overall and a decline in helium consumption by 22% year on year to 3.58 mln cubic meters in 2022, including a 24% decline in scientific research and a 48% fall in advertising. Russia produced a total of about 2.3 mln cubic meters of helium in the first half of 2023, up 16.8% against the like period from last year. Meanwhile, helium consumption in Russia plunged by 18% during the first six months of this year.
The Orenburg helium plant is the principal helium supplier to the domestic market as of early July. May 2023 saw trial starts of a liquid helium unit at the Yaraktinskoe oil and gas field of the Irkutsk Oil Company. The output capacity is 10 mln liters of liquid helium per year or 7.5 mln cubic meters. "The launch of the unit at this facility was tied to domestic demand for Russian helium. However, the entire yielded product is now exported," the expert said.
The Amur gas processing plant, which makes 60 mln cubic meters per year, will be the key Russian helium producer. The helium produced by the plant will largely be exported, Gazprom said earlier. |
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03-21-26 ruspan
Airgas, the largest distributor of pure helium products in the US (with a 22% market share), has declared force majeure and is halting supplies to customers due to the destruction in Qatar. The cost of the damaged liquefaction facilities is approximately $26 billion.
There is no way to "restore everything to its previous state"—supplies will be significantly reduced "for many years," GasWorld reports. |
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03-21-26 savo
interesting article about the supply shock that is coming....
https://goldtrader.substack.com/p/bringing-a-rate-hike-to-an-oil-fight |
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03-21-26 panasonic
I know this sounds far fetched but WWIII started with Covid.
China is the chess player, noy Putin not Khamenei.
Ukraine invasion, Iran nuclear program were not possible without Chinese support.
Maduro is not abt. Veni people its abt ongoing war that now is open like in any chess game when players stop moving pieces and start eating pieces.
AI and robotics are key to replacing Chinese project to control world's supply chains (oil included).
Certainly Iran is very complex and should have been done differently but then you have midterm elections, so there is a timeline to complete the job.
EU sentiment against DT is blinding them on what is at risk for them, and it's much bigger than for USA, a nuclear Iran is something EU can't and shouldn't tolerate...Grossi is not American! |
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03-21-26 panasonic
| Savo, "delivered" 100% the only open question "voluntarily" or not. |
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03-21-26 savo
the smoothness of the veni transition makes me believe that Maduro was not "removed"... Maduro was "delivered".. it was an inside job more than an outside job... everything had been planned and was implemented rapidly. Trump's words after the abduction were of one that had been made promises and wanted to see if those promises became reality. As they did.. he started lifting sanctions. The other reason for the success is that Trump was willing to work with the existing regime instead of removing it and replace it with Urrutia.
That is exactly the opposite of what they are trying to do in Iran, essentially bombing the regime into submission.
They miscalculated the response, a lot of oil and gas infrastructure has been damage that will take time to repair provoking a supply shock that will add to inflation worldwide, deficits and debt. |
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03-21-26 carib
One hopes that they know what they are doing, but reason and experience suggest to doubt.
Machiavelli, in his wisdom, suggested that one should either kill or cajole the adversary, but refrain from just wounding him.
In the case of Venezuela removing the formal leader was sufficient to drive the followers into obedience.. but they should be kept on a short leash in a temporary transition.
With Iran the issue is more complicated, because they are fanatics, not thieves. |
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03-21-26 savo
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03-21-26 spal
| Trump on Kharg: I may have a plan, or I may not. |
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03-21-26 spal
“I might do it. I might not do it. I might have already done it. Nobody knows.”
— Trump Tzu
“You cannot lose if you don’t have a goal.”
— Trump Tzu
“If you do not know what you are doing, your enemy cannot either.”
— Trump Tzu, The Art of War
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03-21-26 victor
merz doing a sanchez, but without taking the credit.
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Washington DC
President Donald Trump said Friday that US lawmakers are “right about” reconsidering American military bases in NATO countries, including Spain and Germany, following those countries' opposition to participation in the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Responding to a question about Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham’s proposal, Trump said, “He is right about asking that … They should be helping with the strait,” criticizing allies for refusing to support operations and securing the Strait of Hormuz.
“I think NATO has gone down a long way … a lot of senators and congressmen … are very upset with the fact that NATO has done nothing,” he added.
Spain has refused to allow the US use of its bases for strikes on Iran, criticizing US-Israeli strikes on Iran as “unjustified,” and opposing involvement in securing the waterway.
Germany has also signaled reluctance, with its defense minister saying the conflict is “not our war.”
The waterway has been at the center of global energy concerns since Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced its closure to most vessels in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks that began Feb. 28.
After Trump called for international help to reopen the strait, many countries refused, suggesting the US started the war without any international consultation and so the war belongs to Trump. |
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03-21-26 spal
“Do not buy-the-dip — there’s way too much volatility,”
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Feels that way. |
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03-21-26 spal
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03-21-26 spal
| Clearly I am not in charge Carib, but in all matters you would be treated as an ally and friend. |
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