09-24-26 savo
I think 5% is a normal rate, not a very high one.
with a 5% PPI that rate is very low... I expect much higher rates...
|
|
09-24-26 savo
where is this money will go ??? that is my question ...
exactly... that money has to go into some other monetary asset... i can't the only two that can perform a monetary metal task and be stored are gold and silver.
That is why I think algos have been programmed wrong (i put right but that was a typo).
The were programmed to look at nominal rates instead of value or real rates.
|
|
09-24-26 pillz
The US, because of the way the system is built, owes a significant chunk to non-residents
//
I know , it is a problem, but , those who hold Tr from the US are not stupid to sell their bond, as an reaction they will have a problem too, because it is a world problem ..., and if they sell, where is this money will go ??? that is my question ... |
|
09-24-26 carib
| Disclaimer: I think 5% is a normal rate, not a very high one. |
|
09-24-26 carib
| Pill: issue is the EU and Japan owe money to themselves, essentially. The US, because of the way the system is built, owes a significant chunk to non-residents. It is not like Japan, IMHO. |
|
09-24-26 pillz
the US never had debt above 100% of GDP in modern times.
//
witch country have les then 100% debt / GDP in modern times , it is a world problem , not only an US problem ... and maybe therefore gold could again go up, because central banks will buy big debts |
|
09-24-26 carib
Pill: in the current context, I agree: yields up, $ up, as in the past.
I was just trying to test the theory to the limit. Except during WW2, the US never had debt above 100% of GDP in modern times.
high real rates without fiscal remedies mean massive monetisation, and massive monetisation means high inflation. Then either you get a serious crisis, or just loss of purchasing power of the currency. It means, as Savo describes.. loss of value versus real stuff, that can be Gold, metals, houses, chinese currency, you name it. |
|
09-24-26 savo
the dollar will be around...
no doubt... what we do not know is what that dollar will buy...
if history is an indication... having lost 99.9% of its value since the fed was created... (and no value lost in the previous 100 years when the Fed was not around)... we can expect a similar performance going forward.
Regarding Gold.. seems to me that the algorithms were not programed right.
If US rates are going up... Gold should be going up too.
Rates are the fee the US has to pay so that people are willing to hold dollars. If rates go up means that fee goes up... if the fee goes up means people expect loss of value... if the dollar is expected to lose value... Gold should go up.
The world needs currency. Govs have proved incapable of providing stable currency. Too much political pressure to borrow spend, bail out, print, etc.
Gold, silver, copper, nickel.. have proved to be able to perform the task no other goods can.
The will come back...i do not know when...
I believe gold and siver prices are being suppressed throught the paper market. It costs the fed nothing to sell and sell future contracts. Physical gold in india is 15% higher than in the West. |
|
09-24-26 mo-mon
savo- I understand.
carib- correct!
hann- well done! Lux condo in BGC either rent or owned by your HK corp. Rented beach house in Palawan or Bohol for your chill time or stay in exclusive 5 star resorts there.
Invisible & being low key is the way. |
|
09-24-26 spal
me think if the US yield must go up , so will the $ , all in my humble opinion .
===
Yes ... US will be around for a long time ... by popular demand.
;)) |
|
09-24-26 spal
How FECCF Compares to the Universe
Deep "Distress / LatAm" Multiple Compression: FECCF trades at ~3.5x EV/EBITDA, a valuation level reserved for distressed E&P entities or highly leveraged commodity names. This persists despite the company having divested its core upstream risk to Parex and de-levered to under 1.0x Net Debt.
Off-the-Charts Cash Claim per Dollar: Producing a ~31% pro-rata EBITDA yield relative to its Enterprise Value, FECCF offers a cash flow claim almost 3x higher than standard small-cap midstream peers and 5x higher than the broader Russell 2000 average.
Misclassified Asset Class: The market continues to lump FECCF into the small-cap Colombian E&P bucket (4.0x median) rather than pricing its ODL pipeline dividends ($65M/yr) and Puerto Bahía port facility under midstream infrastructure benchmarks (8.0x–10.0x). |
|
09-24-26 spal
How ALVOF Compares to the Universe
Priced as an E&P, Powered like a Utility: ALVOF’s ~5.0x EV/EBITDA multiple places it squarely in line with standard, commodity-exposed small-cap E&P peers. However, its business model resembles a contracted midstream entity due to its 100%-owned gas processing plant (UPGN) and long-term fixed-price sales agreement with Bahiagás.
Top-Tier Cash Flow & Yield Generation: A ~21% FFO yield puts ALVOF in the top 10% of all North American small caps for pure cash flow generation. Its ~6.7% direct dividend yield is almost triple the broader small-cap average, backed by a zero-debt balance sheet that eliminates the credit risk typical of high-yielding micro-caps.
The "Small-Cap Discount": The primary reason ALVOF doesn't command a midstream multiple (8.0x+) is scale ($270M market cap) and single-jurisdiction concentration in Brazil. |
|
09-24-26 pillz
which could imply lower US$ FX. Or am I mistaken?
//
Carib, I think you are michtoken , look like today, the Tr yield went up and the $ also ... not down ...also gold went down.. me think if the US yield must go up , so will the $ , all in my humble opinion .. I don't see witch currency could go up , maby the Swiss F , or maybe the gold in the longer term ...even they say that gold go down when the dollar go up and when the yield go up... |
|
09-23-26 Merlino
Savo, Yes, that is also my view
About one month ago an intl consulting/advisory Co apparently very close to DT opened an office in Caracas. They have only a very few number of offices outside USA. Perhaps it is related to this |
|
09-23-26 savo
| merlino.. fwiw i think that this is about replacing French Centerview for some entity close to Trump. |
|
09-23-26 Merlino
Rubio ..... catalogando la reestructuración de la deuda externa como una prioridad fundamental para abrir paso a inversiones globales legítimas.
...........................................
Good! |
|
09-23-26 carib
I would say that, by definition.. at the "right price" there will be always demand for UST bonds. Problem is high yields imply higher fiscal deficit, and eventually monetisation.. which could imply lower US$ FX. Or am I mistaken?
|
|
09-23-26 savo
One of these days the stock market will learn about what is going on in the bond market and take a nosedive
pills.. still think that there is demand out there for USTs? |
|
09-23-26 savo
|
09-23-26 victor
savo...
El FBI investiga el pirateo masivo de datos de miles de sus agentes a través de una página web de empleo
De confirmarse el alcance del hackeo, supondrá un duro golpe a la credibilidad de la agencia encargada de investigar las amenazas cibernéticas
El grupo cibercriminal ShinyHunters proclamó ayer que había robado una gran cantidad de datos “muy sensibles” sobre “casi todos los agentes del FBI y las personas que presentaron una solicitud de empleo” mediante su página web de ofertas laborales. La información privada de los miles de agentes supuestamente afectados incluye sus nombres, direcciones, números de teléfono, nombres de sus cónyuges e información médica, entre otros datos. De confirmarse el alcance de esta brecha de ciberseguridad, se trataría de un duro golpe a la credibilidad de la principal agencia de seguridad y aplicación de la ley del país. |
|
09-23-26 carib
El Universal (pro Rodrigato):
Rubio alertó sobre los riesgos de acelerar etapas sin bases sólidas, indicando que "lo que amenazaría una república duradera en Venezuela sería que alguien resulte elegido y herede el escenario económico y social absoluto".
En este sentido, recalcó que, antes de concretar agendas electorales definitivas, el país debe resolver problemas macroeconómicos estructurales derivados de años de acciones no favorables, catalogando la reestructuración de la deuda externa como una prioridad fundamental para abrir paso a inversiones globales legítimas.
|
|
09-23-26 savo
10 years... 5.10%
#impeachtrump |
|
09-23-26 carib
El secretario de Estado de Estados Unidos, Marco Rubio, aseguró este miércoles que la reunión entre el presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, y la presidenta interina de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, fue breve pero que, entre otras cosas, hablaron sobre elecciones en Venezuela.
Rubio explicó en un rueda de prensa, un día después del primer encuentro entre ambos mandatarios desde el arresto de Nicolás Maduro en Caracas, que hablaron de cómo reconstruir la economía venezolana y de la transición política.
"No solo queremos que haya elecciones libres y justas, sino que exista una república duradera. Lo que amenazaría una república duradera en Venezuela sería que alguien resulte elegido y herede una catástrofe económica y social absoluta", declaró Rubio.
El jefe de la diplomacia estadounidense señaló que tras muchos años de "destrucción" y el reciente terremoto, Venezuela tiene muchos problemas a los que hacer frente, que a su juicio, se deben resolver antes de convocar unos comicios: "La reestructuración de la deuda es fundamental". |
|
09-23-26 savo
Este martes, María Corina Machado intentó viajar desde Panamá hacia Curazao utilizando un pasaporte panameño, según un registro de vuelo al cual accedió un portal de noticias vía internet.
De acuerdo al documento, Machado tenía previsto trasladarse a bordo de la aeronave identificada con la matrícula HP-4DMB. Saliendo desde el Aeropuerto Internacional Marcos A. Gelabert, en Ciudad de Panamá y con destino al Aeropuerto Internacional Hato, en Curazao. No obstante, el viaje finalmente no se concretó. |
|
09-23-26 victor
Panamá dio a Machado un pasaporte diplomático para facilitar su regreso
El Gobierno de Mulino expidió por razones humanitarias un documento especial que no concede la nacionalidad panameña; su número apareció después en un manifiesto de vuelo |
|
09-23-26 hann
09-21-26 carib
Victor:
Resident and Non-Resident Aliens: Taxed only on income originating from within the Philippines
not so for citizens.
09-21-26 carib
Mo-mon: I think the Philippines have territorial taxation, so one can happily bank in Singapore, legally avoid any tax on capital income and gains (except local assets) and just need a tax residence certificate stamped. No CRS is relevant to the matter.
Correct?
09-21-26 mo-mon
Savo, you may want to consider residing in the Philippines. No CRS if resident, low retirement cost, 7k islands to choose from. Cash still widely used.
-----
Ph for citizens is global taxation, one of few modeled after USA... sucks. Estate tax is only 6% (may be raised to 10%). In either case imho it's low just pay it. I gather for non Ph citizens - tax only on local income. Interesting... for my kids.
Ph is partial signatory of fatca or CRS but does not implement yet. But it will some day. Indonesia similar but they got a CB governess who cracked the whip. They offered amnesty w 2% payment of undeclared assets if u keep it offshore and 1% if u bring onshore. It's not a bad amt however supposedly those who participated regret it. It's very difficult to compound w annual tax. But that's why Indo macro is far superior to Ph.
Even if we live here, can't really recommend it. Only if u intend to start or operate a biz - does it make sense. Or want a ph wife. Cheaper to start a biz here, home court advantage. Otherwise, infra sucks and will continue to suck and the reason no CRS is we have very wealthy officials.
There was old joke in Jakarta -3 wealthy generals got together. Ph general said see that road? - 20%. Thai dude said see that bridge?? - 30%. Indo guy said see that dam? Generals said what dam? Indon said 100%. Except now the 100% is the ph speaker.
But yes, possible to live amenitized. Most speak english, cosmopolitan areas & restos, beach, affordable staffing. In these areas less likely to be mugged/pick pocketed than central Barcelona or LA or SFO.
|
|
09-23-26 victor
| https://x.com/VenteVenezuela/status/2102562548960641089 |
|
09-23-26 victor
María Corina Machado ha intentado regresar siete veces a Venezuela sin conseguirlo
|
|
Board
