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04-02-26 spal
It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner.
Cormac McCarthy, Blood Meridian(1985) |
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04-02-26 savo
| the one trying to sink the world economy is the US...the aggressor |
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04-02-26 spal
| IRGC Narrative: In the last 90 minutes, Iranian state media has begun referring to the Strait as the "Sovereign Collection Zone." This confirms our earlier analysis: Iran is no longer trying to "sink" the world economy. |
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04-02-26 carib
The United States is doubling the number of A-10 attack planes it has in the Middle East, according to a New York Times report on Wednesday.
According to the report, the US Air Force is moving 18 A-10s to join the dozen or so already present in the region. |
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04-02-26 carib
| Except for the fact I doubt the US has the world largest oil reserves.. a good speech, for once, IMHO. |
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04-02-26 carib
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04-02-26 spal
Going to bomb them into the Stone Age if the April 6 plan is not agreed. As necessary will take out the oil and gas industry.
Brent heart attack |
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04-02-26 spal
to endure??
i am not enduring anything. are you??
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Vic I amn with you on this sentiment. Unless you are actually fighting or facing down bombs then really you need to be circumspect and not whine. |
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04-02-26 victor
savo, my portfolio lost value... and my electricity and gas bills shot up
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i don't think you are being objective |
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04-02-26 spal
| Trump talking live ... Brent climbing |
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04-02-26 savo
| and i have a problem with Hegseth bombing a girls school in iran and killing 150 people |
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04-02-26 savo
yes victor... my portfolio lost value... and my electricity and gas bills shot up
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04-02-26 victor
savo, we still have to endure 2 more years of this mess
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to endure??
i am not enduring anything. are you??
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04-02-26 Merlino
US lifts sanctions on #Venezuela's interim president
DELCY 2030
.............................
...and Rubio has not posted anything about MCM meeting him a couple days ago... |
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04-01-26 savo
| pana.. i agree but we still have to endure 2 more years of this mess... and who knows what comes after... i hope they impeach DT after midterms... the guy is not of sound mind...he is unfit to be in charge. |
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04-01-26 panasonic
Savo, forget the past, USA is heading to be one more developed country with the European model.
I dont see Republicans back in the white house for many years, fight is over, we can jump to the next thene. |
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04-01-26 savo
pana..
as somebody said..."Americans can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
the problem with this is that people die in the process... entire economies are destroyed... people have to emigrate...families separate...infrastructure disappear...etc...
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04-01-26 panasonic
| Savo as predicted long time ago the Rodriguez brothers survived a criminal cartel and managed to close a wonderful deal for them, one day will have more details on how this coup was achieved. |
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04-01-26 savo
IRAN'S FULL "OPEN LETTER" TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE:
"To the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life:
Iran—by this very name, character, and identity—is one of the oldest continuous civilizations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers—and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbors—Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it.
The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness—not a temporary political stance.
For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful— the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented.
Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran—a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done—and continues to do—is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression.
Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’état—an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalization of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward U.S. policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression—twice, in the midst of negotiations—against Iran.
Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled—from roughly 30% before the Islamic Revolution to over 90% today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives.
At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible.
This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country “back to the stone ages” serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing?
Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the U.S. government—choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor.
Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure—including energy and industrial facilities—directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution.
Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar—shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests?
Is “America First” truly among the priorities of the U.S. government today?
I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation—an integral part of this aggression—and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants—educated in Iran—who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people?
Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud." |
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04-01-26 savo
US lifts sanctions on #Venezuela's interim president
DELCY 2030 |
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04-01-26 spal
Alexander Stahel 🌻
@BurggrabenH
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1h
Remember the 20 Pakistani vessel deal that the Minister and Trump boasted about?
Ok, earlier this week, Iran agreed to allow 20 "Pakistani" vessels to transit through the strait, but Pakistan only had 6 ships or thereabouts. So Islamabad began reaching out the world’s biggest commodity traders like Vitol & Trafigura to see if they had vessels that could transit Hormuz while temporarily sailing under a Pakistani flag. Message 1: the Pakistani wanted to play big league without any vessels. Little crooks.
Anyway, if a vessel makes the smell test cut, the discussions over the toll begin. Iranians apparently have a ranking system of 1-5 for nations, with ships from countries that are seen as "friendly" more likely to get better terms. Putin style. I'm sure Trump loves that new world order. Except, that he isn't on the friendly list.
How much? For oil tankers, the STARTING price in the negotiations is $1 per barrel of oil, paid in yuan or stablecoins. That's $2m for VLCC, $1m for a Suezmax etc. Once the toll is paid, the IRGC issues a permit code and route instructions. Ships are expected to raise the flag of the nation that negotiated the passage agreements, and in some instances, to change their official registration to that country.
As it approaches the Strait of Hormuz, the ship broadcasts its passcode over its very high frequency radio, and is met by a patrol boat that escorts it through the passage, close to the coast between a group of islands that was dubbed “the Iranian tollbooth” by the Lloyds List guys.
Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament is working on a draft bill that would impose a fee on vessels seeking safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. Fars, citing an unnamed lawmaker, said the plan would be finalized next week, and would legally recognize Iran’s oversight of Hormuz. Message 2: The new maritime order is taking shape. |
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04-01-26 victor
savo, dt wants/needs helps with Hormuz, in spite of all his nonsense :-))
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Trump threatened to halt Ukraine aid unless Europe joined Hormuz coalition - report
Trump threatened to stop supplying military equipment to NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which procures weapons for Ukraine and is funded by European nations.
US President Donald Trump threatened to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine unless European allies joined a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing people briefed on the discussions.
Initially, US demands for NATO navies' help were refused, with countries unwilling to involve themselves in the conflict and several saying it would be impossible until the war ended.
Trump then threatened to stop supplying military equipment to NATO's Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which procures weapons for Ukraine and is funded by European nations, according to the Financial Times.
Following the threat, and the urging of NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, France, Germany, and the UK, among other countries, released a statement on March 19 expressing "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait," the report said.
“It was Rutte who insisted on the joint statement because Trump had threatened to withdraw from PURL and from Ukraine in general," one official briefed on the discussion told the Financial Times, adding that the joint statement had to be put together so quickly that there was not enough time to invite everyone to sign, leaving some countries to join in later.
Trump was 'rather hysterical,' NATO official says
Rutte spent the two days before the statement was released making multiple calls with Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, two other officials said.
One official said Rutte described Trump as "rather hysterical" in response to the Europeans' refusal to join the effort to protect the Strait of Hormuz.
UK officials insisted that the UK was already discussing "military to military" options for securing the strait before the statement was released, but did not deny that Trump had threatened to withdraw from PURL if NATO allies did not assist in the strait.
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04-01-26 spal
US lifts sanctions on #Venezuela's interim president
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04-01-26 victor
savo, i think rubio knows quite well what's going on.
but he's a politico at the end of the day.
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When Rubio Slammed Trump As A Sham, A Fraud, And Threat To Conservatives
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wg9T9z5RzeM
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04-01-26 savo
Rubio got it backwards... as usual...
there was no threat to the US or Europe... the US simply fabricated a war may be to consume weapons and buy them back paying the usual commissions to friends and families or to support NethanDracula.
Either or.. Europe did well not creating more enemies in the world.
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04-01-26 victor
LOL
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Bank of Spain raises economic outlook for 2026, trims it for 2027
MADRID, March 27 (Reuters) - Spain's central bank on Friday raised its outlook for economic growth this year to 2.3%, though it trimmed its forecast for 2027 over uncertainty from higher energy prices due to the Iran war and warned that bigger downward revisions were possible. |
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04-01-26 spal
Besides, it would be difficult to find a nicer house in Asturias.
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I know ... sounds perfect! |
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04-01-26 spal
Vic ... let's just hold these as conflicting opinions.
I don't see Spain as an important issue much. I love the wine and the people and can even speak some pigeon Spanish. I like sudacas more though.
;) |
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04-01-26 spal
spal, BTW Spain fucked up
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did it?? how??
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LOL |
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04-01-26 victor
spal, maybe don't buy whatever dt/rubio say?
if rubio wants to keep his job, he has little choice but to follow dt's BS.
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https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670/text
HR 2670
SEC. 1250A. <> LIMITATION ON WITHDRAWAL FROM
THE NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY
ORGANIZATION.
(a) Opposition of Congress to Suspension, Termination, Denunciation,
or Withdrawal From North Atlantic Treaty.--The President shall not
suspend, terminate, denounce, or withdraw the United States from the
North Atlantic Treaty, done at Washington, DC, April 4, 1949, except by
and with the advice and consent of the Senate, provided that two-thirds
of the Senators present concur, or pursuant to an Act of Congress.
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04-01-26 ruspan
Spal: Germany is openly preparing for the next (umpteenth) war with Russia, apart of braking each and every possible agreement with Ru since time, go figure how to make an "axis" with that stuff :-)
Besides, it would be difficult to find a nicer house in Asturias, he he he with a panoramic sea view, with the present Ley de Costas you are only allowed to build 500 mt from the shore.
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04-01-26 panasonic
I'm in
"Formally request that Amateur" |
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04-01-26 victor
spal, BTW Spain fucked up
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did it?? how?? |
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04-01-26 spal
The conservative Canadian province of Alberta is on the verge of scheduling a vote to secede by the end of this year.
Separatists say they’ve officially reached the required number of signatures, and momentum is building fast.
Odds are now sitting at 64% on Polymarket.
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04-01-26 spal
| We need to formally request that Amateur start scouting land for purchase and drawing up land contracts ... |
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04-01-26 spal
| The colores may still be able to survive in a remote corner of Paraguay disguised as menonnites. This is plan B. |
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04-01-26 spal
| One of my sons is fluent - he will be my interpreter and the go between for the family in matters of tribute and bribe payments. |
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04-01-26 panasonic
| Spal, if the party of the "rich" (republicans) survives, EU is fucked alone, otherwise we are all fucked and speaking Mamdanic in ~10 years :-( |
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04-01-26 spal
| Either that or the Germans have decided to die completely ... which is a possibility. |
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04-01-26 spal
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04-01-26 spal
Ruspan ... get ready for the coming German/Russian "axis" (What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun).
Are you up for a consular position ... comes with a nice house in Asturias? |
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04-01-26 spal
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04-01-26 spal
Secretary Marco Rubio delivers a DEVASTATING reality check — NATO is now a “one-way street” and he dropped a MAJOR hint about what’s coming after Iran.
“Unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we’re going to have to reexamine that relationship.”
RUBIO: “If now we’ve reached a point where the NATO alliance means that we can’t use those bases, that in fact, that we can no longer use those bases to defend America’s interests, then NATO is a one-way street.”
“Then NATO is simply about us having troops in Europe to defend Europe but when we need their help, not their help, we’re not asking them to conduct air strikes, when we need them to allow us to use their military bases, their answer is no?”
“Then why are we in NATO? You have to ask that question.”
“Why do we have billions, hundreds of billions of dollars over the years, trillions of dollars, and all of these American forces stationed in the region, if we can only...in our time of need we’re not going to be allowed to use those bases.”
“So I think there is no doubt unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we’re going to have to reexamine that relationship.”
“We’re going to have to reexamine the value of NATO and that alliance for our country.”
Rubio just laid it out — America has been carrying NATO while “allies” sit on their hands in our time of need.
This is the wake-up call. |
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04-01-26 spal
NATO is done ... so question time
In 10 years what will be the official language of Europe:
1. Chinese
2. Russian
3. Arabic
Wrong answers only ...
;)) |
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04-01-26 spal
MATX
MATSON INC
Jones Act carrier ... fortress USA schtock |
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04-01-26 spal
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04-01-26 spal
AlVOF (Brazil natural gas) ... heavy (will likely add).
By the time we hit August, Alvopetro will be realizing nearly $13/Mcf—a massive premium over U.S. Henry Hub prices—because their QDC2 volumes are now hard-linked to 10.5% of Brent. With Brent crude surging past $95/bbl due to the "Hormuz Stall,".
Share Price Forecast:
Next 3 Months (April – June 2026)
Sentiment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish.
Catalyst: The drilling of the 183-D1 Caruaçu well later this month is everything. If they hit high-flow gas here, it erases the 183-1 failure.
Geopolitical Alpha: As the USS Georgia arrives and the April 6 Refrain expires, energy stocks with "Safe Haven" production (like Brazil) will be re-rated. Expect ALVOF to stabilize and recover toward the $7.20–$7.50 range as the $0.12/share dividend remains one of the safest in the sector.
(July – Sept 2026): The "Cash Harvest"
Sentiment: Strongly Bullish.
Catalyst: The $12.87/Mcf pricing kicks in. At 3,200+ boepd and $13 gas, the company’s Operating Netback will likely exceed 90%.
Target: If the Caruaçu drilling is successful, a target of $8.50–$9.00 (ALVOF) is fundamentally supported by the FCF yield.
Div may bump up by Q3. |
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04-01-26 panasonic
"but the whole enchilada"
:-)) soon Chinese Lumpia |
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04-01-26 spal
From an X post ... "I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island."
So not a taco, but the whole enchilada.
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04-01-26 spal
| If the Georgia (sub) receives priority Suez passage on Wednesday morning, it confirms that the Pentagon is timing its arrival to coincide exactly with the expiration of the "April 6 Refrain." |
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04-01-26 carib
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04-01-26 carib
| Ohio class SSGN submarine spotted entering mediterranean in Gibraltar. Only 4 in that class. carrying up to 154 tomahawks and tasked with support to special forces ops. |
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04-01-26 spal
BREAKING: President Trump will address the nation on April 1st at 9:00 p.m. EST regarding Iran.
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04-01-26 spal
(Aftermath and Endgame)Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): If today’s deadline yields only token actions or nothing, expect U.S./Israeli de-escalation signals (Trump has already hinted at winding down ops without forcing full Hormuz reopening). Tech firms will evacuate/fortify regionally; markets stay volatile but adapt. Energy crunch eases gradually as selective shipping resumes and alternatives (pipelines, non-Gulf oil) ramp up.Medium-term (months): Negotiated ceasefire likely—U.S./Gulf push diplomacy, Iran claims “victory through resistance.” Regime survives, transformed: more IRGC-dominated, hardline, economically strained but intact. No popular uprising or fracture materialized. Iran retains enough proxies and mines to deter total defeat, but loses offensive depth.Longer-term: Regional realignment—Gulf states accelerate diversification from oil/tech reliance; global supply chains harden against chokepoints; U.S. tech/infrastructure security tightens. Iran emerges isolated and weaker, but the war ends not with regime change but exhaustion and shared economic scarring. The “drag the region down with us” strategy partially succeeds in imposing costs, but buys only survival, not reversal. Monitor post-deadline hours for any actual detonations—the tone shifts from there.
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04-01-26 spal
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has publicly declared it will launch a “crushing blow” against 18 major U.S. tech, aerospace, and finance firms (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Nvidia, Oracle, Cisco, HP, Dell, Palantir, JPMorgan Chase, GE, plus UAE-based G42).
The targets are their Middle East facilities—offices, showrooms, data centers, and service hubs primarily in the UAE (Dubai/Abu Dhabi), Israel (Tel Aviv/Jerusalem), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. The IRGC frames this as direct retaliation for U.S.-Israeli “decapitation strikes” that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior commanders, accusing the firms of enabling targeting and espionage.
Methods are expected to mix limited kinetic strikes (drones/missiles via proxies) and cyber disruption, with explicit evacuation orders for employees and civilians within 1 km of sites.
Timing
The operation is scheduled to begin precisely at 8:00 PM Tehran time on Wednesday, April 1, 2026 (16:30 UTC / 12:30 PM ET). As of early April 1 UTC, no strikes have occurred; the window opens later today. The IRGC has tied escalation to any further “assassinations,” making the deadline both a trigger and a stall tactic while Iran’s depleted forces reposition.
Likelihood
Medium-low for large-scale success. Iran’s conventional arsenal and command structure remain severely degraded after weeks of U.S./Israeli strikes on missile bases, air defenses, and leadership nodes. Gulf states’ layered systems (Patriot, THAAD) and U.S. forward assets are on high alert and have already intercepted prior Iranian salvos. A symbolic or limited attack is more probable than a decisive “crushing” blow; full-scale cyber or proxy harassment is the most realistic vector. The threat’s specificity and evacuation warnings indicate operational seriousness, not pure bluff, but Iran’s regime fragility makes overreach risky.Implications and Expected Effects
This shifts the war into overt economic targeting of dual-use Western infrastructure, aiming to inflict pain on U.S. tech giants, disrupt Gulf operations, and deter further strikes on Iranian soil. Short-term effects will likely include localized damage or evacuations at threatened sites, temporary service outages, and heightened alerts across the region. Global markets—especially tech and energy—face immediate volatility; oil prices and supply-chain risks are already spiking.Longer-term, the move signals Tehran’s weakness: unable to match conventional firepower, it is lashing out asymmetrically to project strength and buy time. It risks drawing direct U.S. retaliation (already signaled as “ready to thwart”), accelerating regime isolation, and broadening the conflict without collapsing Israel or the Gulf. Civilian disruption will be limited but visible; strategic impact modest unless cyber elements succeed. Overall, it underscores a desperate but contained escalation in a war Iran is losing on the battlefield. Developments post-16:30 UTC today will clarify execution versus messaging.
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