07-03-26 victor
20 million!!
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The first day of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed with family members at the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, has concluded.
More than 20 million people are expected in Tehran for the funeral over the next several days |
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07-03-26 carib
Merlino: hypothetically, someone aware in advance of US long term plans, could have bought millions of PDVsa 2022 @ about 12 cents on the $ one year ago, and sold them back @ 52 cents on the dollar last May, making an easy 320% profit.
If a very friendly and credible restructuring offer was to be made, given the claim for the said bond is 215, it could be imaginable that an additional 100% profit could be made, but an additional 300% potential profit is not easy to imagine.
That is the point I was making.
Advance knowledge of political/military intentions provided an easy way to triple your money fast.
Advance knowledge of intentions concerning a possible restructuring could provide guidance for further profits by holding or shorting bonds.
It is not advisable to play cards when some players know the content of the deck in advance, and others do not (unless you are the cheating one).
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07-03-26 Merlino
Potential further upside is objectively more limited.
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Imho true in % however not necessarily so in actual $ (holding from the lows) which is what finally counts |
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07-03-26 carib
Savo: I just note the big move up of Veny bonds happened between the time Trump took office and May 2026.
Potential further upside is objectively more limited. |
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07-02-26 savo
| carib.. i would say yes to both...reinforced by the belief that the persistent bombardement of negative articles with fabricated theories is to push prices down and buy cheap. |
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07-02-26 carib
Pope Leo XIV, the Chicago-born Catholic spiritual leader, declined an invitation from the White House — hand-delivered by vice-president JD Vance — to visit the land of his birth for the milestone July 4 celebrations.
Instead, Leo will spend the day on Italy’s Mediterranean island of Lampedusa, the landing point for many migrants and refugees from Africa and the Middle East struggling to reach Europe in search of a better life.
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07-02-26 carib
Savo: did Trump buy PDVsa bonds before Jan 3, and did not sell yet?
That is the double question.. |
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07-02-26 carib
When you appoint a fox as warden of the chicken coop, such things happen, and are not surprising.
The surprising thing is the masochism of certain voting choices in the "greatest nation on earth" |
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07-02-26 savo
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump made more than 21,000 securities trades in his first year back in office, often in intense bursts tied to market events he created. |
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07-02-26 carib
Aurora:
A novel $240bn estimate for Venezuela's external debt — attributed to Centerview's macro framework via the Financial Times — is well above other published estimates of $160bn to $180bn, and looks more like an anchoring tactic or guesswork than the product of a rigorous reconciliation process.
This report presents an example of how this amount could be determined, illustrating some of the technical challenges involved in assessing the external debt outstanding.
Last week's catastrophic doublet earthquake compounds these challenges, given its expected hit to GDP, added recovery-financing needs, and the risk of political instability. An early, expedited bond restructuring now faces greater hurdles; the alternative — prioritizing preparatory steps and recovery financing — could push it out further still. We believe any restructuring announcement in the coming weeks is likely to be harsh on bondholders.
Despite the negative impact of the restructuring, the earthquakes could nonetheless pave the way for innovative restructuring tools that align the creditors' interests with the restructuring efforts.
The restructuring seems trapped between two extreme and inefficient options: attempting an early bond renegotiation that could exacerbate political and social tensions, or deferring the process for the next months — and potentially years.
No intermediate path exists yet, but Trump administration-led recovery efforts could deliver quick wins on the debt without adding to political and social risk. |
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07-02-26 Merlino
A couple of good (imho) articles on Veni bonds and situation pre and post earthquakes by L V Leon
https://x.com/luisvicenteleon/status/2069869795382616334
https://x.com/luisvicenteleon/status/2072397483116741028 |
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