05-30-26 savo
| pana.. but how profitable will be the business? anybody knows? |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Spal, massive orders, profit margins are gigantic, demand of tokens is exponential.
On the other hand, investors fear this will end up like fiber during internet days, same or different this time? |
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05-30-26 spal
| Nearly 50% of all shipped Blackwell chips are split between just four corporate entities: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon (AWS), and Google. AWS alone has committed to adding more than 1 million Blackwell and successor Rubin architectures to its footprint. |
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05-30-26 spal
Goog - 1400 racks of NVIDA chips ... 1400 * 1.44 Exaflops a second ... give or take
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05-30-26 spal
The Baseline Cluster (16 to 32 Racks): For mid-scale enterprise AI training or heavy region-wide inference deployment, a standard cluster consists of roughly 16 to 32 racks.
The Frontier Training Cluster (512 to 1,000+ Racks): To build "frontier" large language models (like the successors to GPT-4 or Claude 3), hyperscalers bundle massive arrays together.
The Scale: A mega-cluster of 1,400 GB200 racks houses over 100,000 GPUs functioning in perfect sync.
Microsoft & Google - use mega-clusters to anchor their respective cloud ecosystems (Azure and Google Cloud). |
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05-30-26 spal
To put 1.44 Exaflops in perspective: If every single human being on Earth did one math calculation every second, 24 hours a day, it would take the entire global population nearly 6 years to calculate what this single black rack can compute in one single second.
= 1 rack of NVIDA chips ... |
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05-30-26 carib
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05-30-26 carib
| Zug wealth tax is truly about 0,25%.. but that, for lump sum taxpayers, only applies to the amount used to calculate the said lump sum. So, if your net worth is 10 billion, but your lump sum cantonal agreement is based of a figurative base of 4 million, I guess you pay only about 10.000 CHF of wealth tax annually, an effective tate of 0,0001% |
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05-30-26 carib
Before 2006, Luxembourg had a personal wealth tax of 0,5%.. but it was in practice rather harmless for wealthy residents:
1) the tax value of real estate is still based on 1940 prices.
my house, for example, pays as much as 40 € a year, which is 0.0003% of value. foreign RE was and remains exempt.
2) holdings were (and remain) tax exempt, with no need to declare
3) life insurance policies remain exempt, with no need to declare.
;-) |
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05-30-26 carib
Savo: the big problem about wealth taxes, as you certainly know.. is not the rate, but the obligation to declare the global wealth in question, and to have it assessed. Once you have to file, nothing prevents future governments from increasing the rates.
Usually, such government would first introduce an "exit tax" on the wealth itself or on unrealised gains, so you get taxed even if you leave. |
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05-30-26 carib
| Panas: Mamdani's powers, as far as I understand, only concern city taxes. Connecticut is very close. |
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05-30-26 carib
| A Dutch personal foundation (known as a Stichting) is a versatile, autonomous legal entity uniquely structured without shareholders, members, or share capital. Acting as a "civil law trust," it is widely used by high-net-worth families for wealth preservation, asset protection, and smooth intergenerational business succession. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
| Carib, yep but pls don't tell Mamdani's gang or they will go after small cookies using Thiel's tracking AI-interpol to chase non-billionaires as well. |
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05-30-26 savo
carib.. i wouldn't move to any place which does not offer me a tax deal in writing.
I am not saying argie is good simple that is less bad than before...
the 0.5 to 1% is coming down from 3% and expected to go down further.
In a developed world where pana expects a generalised wealth tax, 0.5% might not be that bad. Ticino in CH goes up to 0.6%. Valais and Zug up to 0.3%.
Tax laws change in many places not only argie. |
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05-30-26 carib
Savo:
Because the bill faced fierce opposition from investors and business leaders over taxing "unrealized" wealth, the Dutch government is considering significant amendments before it is fully enacted. The governing coalition intends to transition the country toward a strictly "realized gains" system. For the official text and updates, consult the Dutch Tax Administration (Belastingdienst). |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Vic, some of ZP's Chinese connections exposed here:
https://x.com/benegasj/status/2060337471125172592?s=48
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05-30-26 carib
Panas: I guess you do not need to be "a billionaire" to borrow at lombard rates with your liquid assets as security. It is a very common way to avoid taxes on capital income, provided you have a viable accumulation vehicle.
Your vehicle is worth, for example, 10 million, and grows at an average of 8% p.a.. Instead of distributing yourself 400K p.a...
you borrow the 400K from the bank, paying, say, 14K of interest on that, rather than 40% income tax, which would be 10 times bigger.
Besides, the 400K in question remain in the vehicle, producing 32K of gains in the said year.. so your net cost is minus 18K, instead of 160K.. |
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05-30-26 carib
Savo: then a US person worth 200 billion dollars globally.. would "just" pay 2 billion dollars a year of Argy wealth taxes, plus his US taxes if any? would he be not better off in a jursdiction with 0 wealth tax?
Besides, Argy is known for changing tax laws quite frequently.. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, and AI baby still in diapers.
Pope Leo and me the only two guys that think those babies are able to grow faster than people imagine.
Thiel could have more strong data, but he won't share details. |
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05-30-26 savo
pana.. that is changing.. Netherlands introduced tax on "unrealized" cap gains...
it is coming...
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05-30-26 panasonic
Billionairs never take profits, hence no taxes, they live from loans on their to tha moon shares.
But pls don't tell those greedy politicians willing to tax the rich on their wealth, no one would vote for them anyway :-)) |
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05-30-26 panasonic
| ...must be the tango thing :-)) |
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05-30-26 savo
if they make 4) all 15%... argie is almost at the level of Uruguay which has 12%...
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05-30-26 savo
carib.. argie is less tax hellish now..
1) argie equity, CEDEARs and Sovereign debt pay zero cap gain tax.
2) Fixed term deposits and sovereign debt pay zero income tax.
3) Wealth tax is 0.5 to 1% excluding banc accounts in argie.
4) Foreign sov bonds, foreign corp bonds, foreign term deposit and foreign dividends pay income tax at the marginal rate and 15% for capital gains.
5) Local corporate bonds pay zero income tax and zero cap gains tax
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05-30-26 carib
| .. he would have to pay billions in Argy wealth taxes if he had done so.. |
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05-30-26 carib
Spal: not sure Thiel got Argy residency.
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05-30-26 carib
The United Arab Emirates conducted dozens of airstrikes against Iran over the course of the war, ending the day after the US -Iran cease-fire was announced in early April, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
The UAE coordinated with the US and Israel, utilizing intelligence from both, and targeted Iranian energy sites in response to Iranian strikes on UAE oil and gas infrastructure, the WSJ cited several sources as saying.
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05-30-26 spal
During his high-level, confidential meetings with Milei at the Casa Rosada, Thiel’s focus wasn't just on short-term corporate deals. According to Milei himself, the conversations centered on "how the foundations of liberalism can endure."
Thiel is viewing Argentina through a highly specific macroeconomic lens
Milei’s massive deregulation campaigns and tax cuts provide a frictionless playground for "frontier technologies" that are heavily bogged down by red tape in the U.S. and Europe.
Thiel has explicitly expressed investment interest in Argentina's massive agricultural sector. Combined with vast shale reserves (Vaca Muerta) and critical minerals like lithium, Argentina offers a rare, completely self-sustaining, geographically insulated economic moat.
Beyond personal real estate, Thiel’s presence is widely seen by analysts as a prelude to deploying Palantir's data analytics and AI infrastructure at a state level.
Under the "Isaac Accords" framework, the administration is eager to integrate high-compute Western intelligence and security tech to reform the state's operations.
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05-30-26 spal
We do know that the Jewish community has targeted accelerated settlement in Argentina (new attaché, direct flights etc. etc.) ... this is a parallel not necessarily a related development.
Theil is of course crazy as a cut snake, one of my sons has been to one of his "secret society" type meetings (my son is not a regular attendee but substituted once for someone in his orbit). They are more than unhinged "libertarians" ... but I can see Thiel feeling that that he is channelling the forces of the universe in his fireside chat is Casa Rosada with the equally unhinged Milei.
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05-30-26 spal
| He does escape state tax jurisdiction. Ergo CA wealth tax. |
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05-30-26 spal
| Thiel is a US citizen and remains a US citizen for tax purposes. Maybe he and his boyfriend like the tango. |
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05-30-26 carib
Se rompre la cuerda de la bandera de España durante el izado en el desfile del Día de las Fuerzas Armadas
El incidente ha ocurrido cuando ha partido el enganche por donde pasaba la cuerda durante uno de los momentos más importantes del acto y ante la mirada del rey Felipe VI que presidía la ceremonia y que, por primera vez, lo hacía acompañado por la princesa Leonor |
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05-30-26 carib
PS: It would be nice if Milei transformed Argy into a tax haven.
Currently, it's still tax hell, as far as I understand. |
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05-30-26 carib
| Panas: not really. we are possibly trying to de-construct globalisation. I am not sure this will work, but it any case it produces re-nationalisation. Re nationalisation includes taxation, where national interests are conflictual. Many countries might try to enforce global taxes against each other, but not on a cooperative manner. Of course people need always to have "plan B.. C and D". I guess we all have had those since the last century.. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, agree, significant move coming from an AI expert on tracking people.
In his league, would be dumb not to expand horizons.
In Musk and Bezos league, earth is to close from "Pinkitos". |
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05-30-26 savo
pana.. this guy probably has several bases... he just added one more buying a house in the most expensive city district..
but he is not the first one... other mega rich have done the same.. buying agricultural land or land by lakes in the mountainous area
given that cap gain taxes have been dropped to 15% argie is attractive now in its own terms...
Wealth tax has been reduced to 0.5-1%
I think people are starting to be less concerned about tax rates and more about getting as far as possible developed countries agendas.
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05-30-26 panasonic
Carib, from your post I infere you don't see Davos model collapse.
NY is the perfect example of the contrary, AI will accelerate that franchise, sadly. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, interesting move by Thiel.
If someone knows abt. people tracking it's him, together with Alex Karp.
Karp is the most vocal of the two founders of Palantir. |
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05-30-26 savo
moving south..
Peter Thiel's move to Argentina reflects a growing trend among billionaires seeking a 'plan B' abroad
https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-argentina-billionaire-moving-abroad-2026-5 |
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05-30-26 victor
savo, that is how he will go bankrupt.
interesting |
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05-29-26 savo
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
Everyone should read what Senior Vice President of Exxon Neil Chapman says about the oil price surge coming in 2-3 weeks
The next wave of the energy shock is approaching fast
https://x.com/professorpape/status/2060198229841522884 |
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05-29-26 savo
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05-29-26 savo
victor... Saylor funded the purchase of BTCs with convertible notes maturing 29, 39, 39 and 31...
unless BTC prices go up and MSTR price goes up,... those converts will not be converted.. people will request payment in cash...
that is how he will go bankrupt.
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05-29-26 carib
PS: the OECD is a potential fan of "global taxes".
They recently tried with the minimum corporate tax.
The USA answered: great.. provided we are exempt.
the OECD created the CRS.. the USA are exempt.
I think China is likely to follow the US example, medium term. |
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05-29-26 carib
Panas: I am an old chap. I understand the concept of having eventually the movements of all people potentially tracked where legal, and AI filling the gaps.
Hopefully that would be good for reducing crime, and very bad for privacy rights.
But I do not understand the concept of a "global tax" in the absence of a "global government".
Governments are the entities with power to tax, and governments are competing with each other in this business. For every government trying to tax its subjects more.. there will be an other one offering haven for such subjects if they move.
Tax competition is and will remain there..
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05-29-26 carib
someone is making tons of money on tech/AI stocks.. no doubt.
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05-29-26 pillz
Dell Shares
414.93USD
287.13+224.67%
Dell Shares Soar After Outlook Tops Estimates on AI Boom |
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05-29-26 savo
| lots of investors... few customers... |
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05-29-26 victor
savo, saylor has thought about that, he has a reserve of $X that will maybe last him for several years.
what you are saying only becomes true if btc price collapses, and stays at depressed levels for years! |
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05-29-26 savo
Apollo Global Management Inc. and Blackstone Inc. are working to bring additional investors into a roughly $36 billion debt financing deal to help Anthropic PBC build out its AI infrastructure.
The debt will be used to purchase Google’s custom chips called TPUs, or tensor processing units, which Anthropic will then lease, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Broadcom Inc., which helps Google develop the chips, is backstopping payments on the largest portions of the transaction, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.
The move would mark one of the largest-ever private credit deals and also the biggest chip-financing debt transaction. It aims to tap Broadcom’s credit quality to provide computing-power access to Anthropic, which just eclipsed rival OpenAI in valuation.
Shares of Broadcom and Google owner Alphabet Inc. climbed in late trading on the news. Broadcom rose as much as 1.9% to an aftermarket high of $434.84, while Alphabet advanced as much as 1.2% to $394.81.
The financing plan will help the maker of Claude meet its ambitious goals for building infrastructure. The company is racing with OpenAI to line up an initial public offering later this year as investors throw vast sums of money at AI services. |
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05-29-26 savo
a lot of capital is moving into funding IA
does anybody know whether this will produce any return at all... companies are being valued not on earnings but on the amount of borrowing...
***
Anthropic announced Thursday that it raised $65 billion in a separate funding round that valued the company at $965 billion. It marked the first time that Anthropic had a bigger valuation than ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
GPU Loans
Tech companies are spending billions of dollars to construct AI data center facilities, but the bigger cost is typically the chips and other equipment needed to power the software and services. Though Nvidia Corp. dominates the market for this technology with its graphics processing units, or GPUs, it’s facing more competition. Google has emerged as a contender with its TPUs, and Broadcom and others are developing separate approaches.
The high cost of acquiring these chips has created a market for gigantic GPU loans, with data center operator CoreWeave Inc. and others taking advantage of the financing. The latest deal would apply the same concept to TPUs.
In this type of structure, a special-purpose vehicle, or SPV, borrows the money and also receives an equity investment. That cash is used to buy the chips, which are then leased to a customer. The debt is backed predominantly by the lease payments, along with the unknown long-term value of the chips. |
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05-29-26 savo
the opposite Victor... Saylor will have to sell btc to pay stretch...and the rest of the debt..
he was just forced to buy the zero% converts with 60% of the cash that he had left...
remember he has to pay 11% and the obligation to maintain the price of stretch at 100% by increasing the coupon...and has no income... |
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05-29-26 victor
| Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb. The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions. All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!). Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President! The enriched material, sometimes referred to as “Nuclear Dust,” which is buried deep underground with virtually collapsed mountains, caused by our powerful B2 Bomber attack 11 months ago, sitting on top of it, will be unearthed by the United States (which, it is agreed, is the only Country, along with China, with the mechanical capability of doing so!), in close coordination and conjunction with the Islamic Republic of Iran, plus the International Atomic Energy Agency, and DESTROYED. No money will be exchanged, until further notice. Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to. I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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05-29-26 victor
savo, but Strategy will
what do you mean?
what i meant, and what i think was the matter at hand:
whether saylor would have to sell his btc in a depressed market?
and the answer seems to be: NO, regardless of a cheapo btc price. |
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05-29-26 panasonic
Savo, I understand your point, but take in consideration that AI will bring sharp deflation, consumption will drop on lack of high earners, Govs. deficits won't be easy to fund via inflation.
I only know one thing, those "new rich" from semis trades may end losing all profits and more, stay tuned. |
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05-29-26 panasonic
"but if avoiding taxes"
Wealth taxes you mean, indeed not for me.
AI controlled universal wealth tax, we'll have to find ways to deal with it.
Banking in BOSVG wont fit :-)) |
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05-29-26 carib
| a lot of capital is moving into funding IA, crowding out even UST investments.. |
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05-29-26 carib
| PS: in her opinion, the "neutral" bond rate.. is between -0,5 and + 0,5% after discounting inflation, meaning negative after discounting both inflation and taxes.. |
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05-29-26 carib
Savo: you just need to have a Bloomberg account to open, or maybe there are other links to the blog.
Gita is a very clever girl (now teaching at Harvard). Her take is that UST are still benefitting from an amount of privilege, so Bessent can go on playing with them. She added very few people in Congress (and nobody in the WH, I guess) are concerned about debt and deficit.
She thinks rates are moving higher.. until they produce a recession, if I got her thinking right. |
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05-29-26 savo
carib... Gita Gopinath on rates
couldn't open...but could it simply be that government are borrowing too much?
in the year of the 250th anniversary of whatever happened 250 years ago in the US
Are we freer today under democracy or were we freer under King George?
Would income tax be imaginable under King George?
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05-29-26 savo
| victor... have you notices that btc mining companies are turning into AI data centers... from one bubble to the next... |
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05-29-26 savo
| victor... i do not know about his personal finances... but Strategy will |
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05-29-26 carib
Savo: a place you might consider if you want bonds and worry about inflation is Brasil.
you can get bonds BRL denominated but trading and paying in US$, yielding inflation+8,5%.
if you spend in BRL, the FX changes are not very revelant.
For as long as it lasts.. |
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05-29-26 victor
| savo, 73.5k... maybe, but the guy isn't going broke anytime soon. |
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05-29-26 savo
victor...
Saylor officially under water..after 6 years of buying |
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05-29-26 savo
victor...
Saylor officially under water..after 6 years of buying |
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05-29-26 carib
Gita Gopinath on rates.. interesting
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-29/gita-gopinath-on-why-interest-rates-have-surged-all-around-the-world?srnd=phx-markets |
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05-29-26 savo
| carib... i make 6 month budgets based on location... the current 6 months is running significantly above estimates... I feel like a politician... overspending... problem that in this case it is my money not the people's... inflation is more than I though... |
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05-29-26 carib
| Panas: that is reasonable.. but if avoiding taxes is a real priority, one should not reside in countries with exit taxes, and keep the portfolio offshore. |
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05-29-26 carib
Savo: I guess under the circumstances described.. you would not "make a living" but would have to slowly deplete capital.
Still better off than folks with no capital.. |
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05-29-26 savo
pana... so you don't fear some sort of universal wealth tax in say 5~7 years?
sorry to sound repetitive... but that is happening already ...
My situation... i have no chance of spotting the next nvidia.. micron or whatever... i do not want to be glued to a screen looking at option prices...my experience is in bonds... with some magic one can make in emerging market bonds ex-pdvsa... 8 to 10% per annum and hopefully some cap gain here and there... if inflation is say 6 to 8% and tax is 20%... how do I make a living? |
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05-29-26 panasonic
"If you feel even worse news are coming.. why are you not moving out?"
I don't feel I have to move ahead of facts, when it comes, we'll decide as a family, bcz place where we decide to move today may follow a similar model tomorrow :-(
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