03-26-26 savo
also GCC central banks are currently selling gold (in my estimation) and building cash liquidity. UAE in particular.
they are selling treasuries... not gold |
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03-26-26 spal
NEXT
NEXTDECADE CORP
8.31 (+13.28%)
Someone is betting on Qatar going off line.
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03-26-26 savo
| there may be a deal or there may be a forever war... but given that the main objective of these people is personal, family and friends enrichment... there will be many Tacos in the process... now he is agitating the markets in a negative way... and at some point probably during the weekend after positions were taken... a tweet will reverse the course.. they will take profit and start again. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
"There is plenty oil in the Orinoco belt.."
Yep, this side of the pond doing the hard work to save EU butts, nothing new, already happened with gas pipeline from Russia and EU freezer some accounts and nothing else. |
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03-26-26 spal
Carib - it is possible that Trump calls that bluff. $200 oil is survivable for the US, not for the many other countries that he has called on to assist here.
If pushed and cornered he is likely to act temperamentally. |
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03-26-26 carib
If I got it right (non being a Trumpologist) the US has offered the Iranian regime regime a deal: accept nuclear and external influence castration, in exchange for possible regime survival.
So far the regime declined, which was expected.
The "barbudos" vocally threaten to set the Gulf ablaze, but probably in reality they are testing Trump's determination playing the oil price card.
Outcome difficult to forecast, even for insiders. |
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03-26-26 spal
| EC ... almost fully conflict insulated ... obviously not insulated from Colombian political stupidity ... but even that is being overwhelmed by current global geopolitical developments. Shares performing schrongly now |
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03-26-26 spal
FANG
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY I
200.22
(+2.14%)
Now through $200 ... for sure they will rework wells in the Permian.
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03-26-26 carib
| There is plenty oil in the Orinoco belt.. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Gold is likely to get whacked more now - many institutions will shed it it based on panic rotation ... also GCC central banks are currently selling gold (in my estimation) and building cash liquidity. UAE in particular. |
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03-26-26 spal
If the 6-nation coalition strike occurs as predicted, the Strait will likely face a total physical closure (mines/sunken vessels) rather than just a "permission-based" one.
Prediction: In a "Total Closure" scenario, Frontline’s value could skyrocket further as the world's remaining oil must be sourced from the Atlantic Basin (US/Brazil/West Africa), which requires even longer voyages—further tightening the fleet and potentially pushing FRO shares toward the $45–$50 target. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
| My calls in gold & silver whacked. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
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03-26-26 spal
| The last post ... that says "last post" ... LOL ... came from a different browser ... such are the quirks of our site. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Last post an accident - was an old one sitting in the cache of a different browser. |
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03-26-26 panasonic
"The market eventually "self-corrects" through a global recession."
China misplaced that memo! |
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03-26-26 spal
The situation is best described as a war that is simultaneously at its most dangerous and its most negotiable moment. The 5-day pause Trump granted is the first genuine diplomatic opening since the war started February 28. But Iran's formal rejection of the US plan yesterday, combined with continued missile and drone strikes on Kuwait Airport, Israel, and Gulf states, suggests Tehran is not ready to de-escalate on US terms.
The most likely single outcome — roughly 35–40% probability — is that the five-day window expires without a deal, Trump orders strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, Iran retaliates against Gulf desalination and power systems, and the war enters its most destructive phase yet. The second most likely outcome — roughly 25–30% — is that back-channel mediation produces enough of a framework for a temporary pause, kicking the core issues down the road.
The scenario you originally described — a GCC-initiated offensive — remains the third-order outcome, most likely only in the event that Iranian strikes directly and catastrophically hit UAE civilian infrastructure, triggering the "calculated desperation" logic you outlined. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Demand Destruction: At $150+, global consumption will drop so sharply (especially in Asia) that the market eventually "self-corrects" through a global recession. |
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03-26-26 spal
The "Infrastructure Retaliation" (72 Hours – 2 Weeks)
Price Target: $180 – $220 per barrel
This is the "Black Swan" scenario where Iran executes its threat to target the "Glass Houses" of the GCC.
Refinery & Terminal Destruction: If Iranian drones or missiles successfully hit the Jebel Ali fuel farms or the Ras Tanura export terminal in Saudi Arabia, the disruption moves from "temporary transit delay" to "permanent loss of capacity."
The "Zero-Flow" Realization: If underwriters and shippers declare the entire Persian Gulf a "Total Exclusion Zone," oil would likely punch through the $200 mark. At this level, the conversation shifts from "price" to "allocation" (governments seizing supply for essential services). |
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03-26-26 spal
The "Strike Spike" (First 24–48 Hours)
Price Target: $135 – $155 per barrel (Brent)
The moment coalition aircraft cross the median line and initiate strikes on Iranian launch sites, the market will immediately price in a total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. |
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03-26-26 spal
| OSINT monitors have noted a repositioning of Iranian Fattah-2 hypersonic batteries toward the Jebel Ali Desalination Plant and the Khalifa Port. |
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03-26-26 spal
| insurance providers have upgraded the UAE to "Elevated Risk – Conflict-Related Disruptions" for the next 72 hours, signaling that the industry expects a major kinetic event rather than a de-escalation. |
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03-26-26 spal
| US is shifting from "standoff" (long-range) weapons to "stand-in" precision strikes. |
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03-26-26 spal
Pakistan - locked and loaded.
Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA): Signed in September 2025, this pact with Saudi Arabia is Pakistan’s "Red Line." It treats an attack on Saudi territory as an attack on Pakistan. While Pakistan hasn't joined the offensive, it has reportedly signaled that any Iranian move to target Mecca, Medina, or Riyadh would trigger a full military response. |
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03-26-26 spal
Probability of Strike: 85% (Conditional on the Hormuz ultimatum).
Primary Actors: US & Israel (Heavy lifting/EW), UAE & KSA (Tactical strikes/Air cover), Bahrain/Jordan/Qatar/Kuwait (Logistical & Intelligence support).
The Outcome: Expect a "shock and awe" style aerial campaign lasting 48 hours, followed by a massive diplomatic push for a ceasefire. |
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03-26-26 spal
| Sensor Hand-off: OSINT analysis of regional radar signatures shows the activation of a "Unified Air Defense & Strike Shroud." UAE and Saudi sensors are now fully integrated with CENTCOM’s Link-16 network, allowing US B-21s or B-2s to provide the "shroud" (Electronic Warfare) while regional partners provide the "payload" (Surgical strikes). |
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03-26-26 spal
Aviation Signal: Over the last 12 hours, OSINT flight trackers (ADS-B) have recorded UAE Air Force (UAEAF) F-16 Block 60s and Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) F-15SAs departing from Al Dhafra and King Abdulaziz bases in "large-force employment" (LFE) formations.
Logic: Unlike the solo "Combat Air Patrols" seen last week, these jets are flying in coordinated groups of 8–12, accompanied by A330 MRTT tankers. This indicates practice for long-range strikes rather than coastal defense. |
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03-26-26 spal
| The convergence of OSINT signals, diplomatic shifts, and military movements suggests that a coordinated "counter-force" operation involving the 6-nation GCC+ coalition is not just a possibility, but the most probable outcome within the next 72 hours. |
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03-26-26 spal
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03-26-26 spal
72 hour countdown to massive attack on Iran ...
OSINT flight data from the last 12 hours shows UAEAF F-16s and Saudi F-15SAs flying in coordinated strike formations (with tankers and EW support) rather than solo defensive patrols. |
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03-26-26 spal
UAE ... on war footing ...
1. Detection of Depletion:
Iran is currently launching "saturation attacks" (over 1,800 drones to date) to bleed the UAE’s supply of Patriot and THAAD interceptors.
2. The Window of Action:
The UAE realizes that if they continue a "defense-only" posture, they will eventually run out of interceptors before Iran runs out of cheap drones.
3. The Escalation Conclusion:
To save their infrastructure, they must "strike the archer, not the arrows." By using the massive US/Israeli strikes as "noise," the UAE can conduct deniable or "proactive defense" strikes on IRGC launch sites in Hormozgan to stop the flow. |
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03-26-26 victor
pana, andalucia poll. today.
montero gets KILLED with only 25 seats, only 3 more seats than vox.
sanchez is so desperate that he's willing to sacrifice his own vp in order to have a fighting chance against the PP in andalucia.
andalucia.. former psoe stronghold.
//
https://electomania.es/encuesta-andalucia-data10-25-mar-moreno-roza-la-absoluta-vox-acecha-al-psoe/
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03-26-26 victor
pana, sanchez is very worried of losing his job.
he senses he's going to lose.
3 years ago sanchez LOST. feijoo won.
remember that.
//
montero is the vp, soon she will resign so she can go back to andalucia, and try to win the regional elections..
most likely scenario she is going to lose IN ANDALUCIA.. the former psoe stronghold.
so she asked sanchez for a favor: "in order to help me out in andalucia, call early elections for the same sunday as andalucia elections.. thus encouraging psoe voters to come out and vote for me.."
SANCHEZ REFUSED.
and this is coming from his own vp, and his own hand-picked candidate to run in andalucia.
sanchez is terrified of calling elections.
//
this is from today:
Montero presionó para el 'superdomingo' y Sánchez solo le prometió «implicación» en campaña
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03-26-26 savo
the us housing market seems to be frozen... to unfreeze it prices should drop significantly... that would put most recent buyers into negative equity and banks into insolvency...
death by inflation or death by financial crisis... Trumkenstein and the dollar are doomed.
***
Mortgage rates on a 30-year loan just hit 7 percent, intensifying problems on the demand side. Mortgages plus insurance—which turns a half-million dollar house into a $1.2 million house plus property taxes—became unaffordable for another class of buyers while already out of reach for most people.
On the supply side, millions of existing homeowners are locked into COVID-era mortgages of 3 percent or lower, which makes them negative in real terms. That’s a great deal unless you sell and then have to buy again. It would make no sense to sell in any case, but you are still stuck paying ever higher property taxes on ever higher valuations.
This has produced a problem that is evident in January’s new home sales numbers, which fell 18 percent, the largest drop in 13 years and a level comparable to the bust following the 2008 financial crisis that began with housing. What’s happening in real time is suggested by the anecdotes. People are neither selling nor buying—unless of course you have a full load of cash on hand.
The picture this creates is one of illusory wealth, on one hand, and frustrated renters on the other. The existing owners are paying ever higher property taxes on rising home valuations but their own joy comes from looking at their paper wealth rise on Zillow. It’s an unrealized gain, and realizing it is contingent on willing and lucrative buyers.
Otherwise, they are stuck. Closing a sale at the market price is wonderful but parlaying that into new living conditions would certainly land you in a smaller home or a different market entirely, requiring a geographic relocation. A fixer upper is not really viable either when it seems nearly impossible to find affordable and competent service providers these days plus the high cost of all resources.
This is again more collateral damage from lockdowns and zero interest rates. The people who used stimulus payments for home purchases thought they were getting a great deal. In some ways they were, but this is mitigated by rising property taxes and the feeling of being stuck in a homeowner situation from which there is no financially rational escape.
The buying peak of 2020 is matched by the selling trough of 2026 almost as mirror images.
The housing market is distinct for being spottily illiquid. This doesn’t happen in the market for eggs, jeans, or beef. A frozen market is about plentiful supply but few willing sellers or buyers. Posted prices become illusory because they are not manifested in actual trade. They are only estimates of trades, like a high-priced product on eBay that no one buys.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/frozen-market-homes |
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03-26-26 panasonic
Vic, interesting stats, makes stronger my case that PSOE isn't
getting weaker.
I know you (same as me) wish a Gov. Change, but I'm less optimistic than you. |
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03-26-26 victor
pana, sanchez was in congress today. provided some interesting stats, of the stuff he's been up to:
only 5% of spain's oil purchases go via hormuz
only 2% of spain's nat gas purchases go via hormuz
one may hate him, but he's doing his job. |
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03-25-26 panasonic
| Negotiations "probably" to know who is in charge? |
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03-25-26 carib
All we know is the Marines on the Tripoli are expected in area by the weekend, and the battalion on the Boxer is still far away.
But it might be once again shadow puppeteering: doing one thing whilst pretending to do the opposite.
Meanwhile there are now 4 israeli divisions in south Lebanon. |
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03-25-26 spal
Impact on energy markets: These ports together disrupt 1.7+ million bpd of crude/products exports plus specialized LPG output when offline. Recent strikes already caused suspensions, fires, and partial restarts, with Primorsk remaining heavily impacted and Ust-Luga hit again. This adds meaningful supply tightness to global markets—Russia is a top oil exporter, and Baltic volumes are a large chunk of its seaborne flows. Oil prices have seen volatility and upward pressure (with references to levels near $115/bbl in some reports amid concurrent Middle East disruptions like the Strait of Hormuz). LPG markets face specific shocks from the Ust-Luga facility. Russia struggles to capitalize on high prices because loadings halt, and rerouting to other ports (Black Sea, Pacific) is limited by capacity, distance, or prior disruptions. Longer-term, this erodes Russia's war funding while amplifying global price spikes and uncertainty.
Europe in this context: Direct supply impact is limited. The EU has banned seaborne imports of Russian crude and refined products since 2022–2023 under sanctions, so these Baltic exports (via shadow fleets) primarily serve non-EU buyers like India, China, and others. Europe does not rely on this route for its own imports. However, higher global oil and product prices raise energy costs across the continent (affecting gasoline, heating, industry, etc.). Geopolitically, the strikes align with Europe's broader interest in weakening Russia's energy-funded war machine. The attacks occur near EU borders (Leningrad Oblast is close to Estonia and Finland; smoke has been visible from Finland), raising regional security concerns but no direct energy shortage for the EU. Overall, it creates economic headwinds from prices while supporting the strategic goal of pressuring Moscow.
These developments are fluid—ports have shown partial restarts after prior alerts—but repeated strikes increase the risk of prolonged disruption as Zeihan outlines.
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03-25-26 spal
More waves of attacks coming ... Russians out of counter measures.
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03-25-26 spal
| An additional 3-4% of LPG gas offline |
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03-25-26 spal
| Doubling down on its strikes in the Baltic, Ukraine has launched an even more impressive and successful strike on Ust-Luga and other export facilities. |
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03-25-26 spal
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi:
There are no talks with the U.S.
The U.S. is sending messages through different mediators.
Exchange of messages via mediators does not mean negotiation with the U.S.
===
However there are tweets and algos ... 90% of the world is clown world.
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03-25-26 spal
Brent futures fell 5.9% to $98.28/bbl on March 25, 2026—dipping below $100—as the “paper market” aggressively priced in the U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal delivered via Pakistan, headlines of a Trump-ordered 5-day strike pause, and possible Islamabad talks.
This “Diplomatic Discount” reversed prior gains. Energy majors (XOM, CVX) softened 1–2% with crude, but oilfield services and midstream names (SLB, KMI) proved more resilient, holding on record backlogs and 2026 forecasts that embed a persistent “Energy Scarcity” premium.
Analysts call it a “Fragile Peace Mirage”: Iran has publicly rejected direct talks as “fake news” to manipulate prices, while OSINT maritime data (Windward, Lloyd’s List) confirm the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to Western-aligned tankers—limited to Tehran-approved selective routes with fees.
Even a quick diplomatic win won’t instantly repair physical and insurance damage. Traders are betting on a “Trump Put,” but the setup screams bull trap if the March 27 kinetic window closes without verifiable reopening. Volatility stays elevated.
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03-25-26 spal
Lost in a lot of the Iran noise, Ukraine has been hammering Russian oil facilities last few days.
The recent drone attacks (March 22–23, 2026) on the Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk (Russia's largest oil export terminal, handling over 1 million barrels per day) and Ust-Luga (~700,000 bpd) temporarily halted crude and fuel loadings, with fires reported at storage tanks. Reuters sources described this as disrupting at least 40% of Russia's western oil export capacity at the time.
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03-25-26 spal
| There is virtually no insurance ... so if you go through the straight you re-badge and send an old banger |
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03-25-26 spal
Dirty crude tanker schtocks struggling a bit ... I wonder why ...
;)))) |
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03-25-26 spal
| Oil schtocks, infrastructure, chemicals, fertilizer schtocks firming ... |
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03-25-26 spal
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03-25-26 victor
another telltale sign that people are getting tired of dt
dt's candidate lost this primary race
//
Top Republican in North Carolina Senate concedes race decided by 23 votes
Phil Berger, who was endorsed by Trump, concedes to Sheriff Sam Page despite outspending his opponent in Republican primary
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03-25-26 spal
HOUSTON, March 25 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), opens new tab has a team in Venezuela this week evaluating the country's oil and gas resources and infrastructure, upstream head Dan Ammann said Wednesday at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston.
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03-25-26 spal
| #Russia: At least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based on market data. |
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03-25-26 savo
a reminder
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/2036777835541487657?s=48&t=JHX4_bRzg43q7__yG__aUw |
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03-25-26 savo
| i like this guy... Trumkenstein and Benjakill Netandracula...fuck-off |
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03-25-26 carib
An Iranian military spokesperson mocked U.S. efforts to reach a ceasefire, suggesting Washington was effectively negotiating with itself. Lt. Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for Khatam al-Anbiya, made the remarks in a prerecorded video broadcast on state television. “The strategic power you used to talk about has turned into a strategic failure,” he said. “The one claiming to be a global superpower would have already gotten out of this mess if it could. Don’t dress up your defeat as an agreement. Your era of empty promises has come to an end.”
His comments came shortly after the Trump administration sent a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran via Pakistan. Zolfaghari dismissed the effort outright. “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?” he said. “Our first and last word has been the same from day one, and it will stay that way: Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, not ever.” |
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03-25-26 carib
Iran has reviewed a US proposal to end the war and considers its conditions excessive, Iran's Press TV cited an official as saying on Wednesday, saying Tehran will end the war only at a time of its own choosing and if its conditions are met.
An Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the response to the US proposal was not positive and that Tehran was still reviewing it.
The official also said that Tehran's initial response has been delivered to Pakistan for conveyance to Washington.
the first requirement of diplomatic negotiations is secrecy.
we have no idea if there are actual negotiations or not, at present. |
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03-25-26 carib
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03-25-26 spal
| Apologies ... functioning on low caffeine levels ... currently adjusting them ... |
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03-25-26 cirun
Spal, i accept that there is an difference between investing and political thinking. You have an other point of view. For investment one needs to look for short term developments, that can curbe your bet, even if long term one could be proven right. .
anyway, should i take it friendly or less friendly when You change my handle? |
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03-25-26 spal
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03-25-26 spal
Circun - I read it - I would add 2 things:
1.The best hope, of course, is that the people of Iran will secure their freedom ... this can ONLY happen if they through off their crazed regime. There was probably less chance of that ex-ante where we are now.
2. He talks of electrification of the grid and that is fair, but that power will not all come from the wind and the sun and in any case building that equipment and maintaining it depends on energy.
I think his piece was long on moralizing and short on practicality. |
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03-25-26 cirun
nothing to add
"All the energy strategies developed for the climate crisis are ready and should be implemented as a matter of urgency. The rapid electrification of industry, transport and the heating and cooling sectors, and the expansion of electricity generation capacity, can be achieved in a relatively straightforward way.
And for all those who say this is too expensive: the EU spends about $450bn a year on fossil fuels – often from countries that are not particularly committed to liberal democracy. Better to use these funds for domestic energy production and the protection of our infrastructure."
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03-25-26 spaldo
Aus Prinzip !
Like Putin, Trump is a megalomaniac. In Europe, we can shield ourselves, not look for rational motives
Robert Habeck
I had to deal with energy shock in Germany after Putin invaded Ukraine. The solution now is the same: buy ourselves out of the fossil fuels trap
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/mar/25/like-putin-trump-is-a-megalomaniac-in-europe-we-can-shield-ourselves-not-look-for-rational-motives
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03-25-26 spaldo
_If you are strategically on the wrong side of it ... you are dead._
Aber wir tun es aus Prinzip. ;-) |
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03-25-26 victor
telltale sign that the gop will likely lose in november
//
Bloomberg) — A Democrat is poised to represent President Donald Trump and his Mar-a-Lago residence in the Florida state House of Representatives after Republicans lost a special election in a surprise upset.
The Democratic candidate, Emily Gregory, was projected to defeat her Republican opponent, Jon Maples, in a special election Tuesday, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Republicans hold a wide majority in the Florida statehouse, so the upset will have little effect on state politics. But it represents a symbolic win for Democrats and warning sign for Republicans ahead of the November congressional midterms where the GOP is battling to retain their majorities in the US House and Senate.
Trump easily won Florida’s 87th legislative district in 2024. It includes Palm Beach, which Trump declared as his primary residence during his first term, switching from Manhattan’s Trump Tower to his Mar-a-Lago resort.
The loss is also personal for Trump who backed Maples, on Monday posting on social media that he gave the Republican candidate “MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!” |
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03-25-26 spal
IRAN’S KHATAM AL-ANBIYA SAYS U.S. IS “NEGOTIATING WITH ITSELF,” REJECTS ANY POSSIBILITY OF TALKS
IRAN WARNS IT WILL NOT REACH AGREEMENT WITH WASHINGTON “NOW OR EVER”
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03-25-26 spal
| I would be quite happy with Carib as one of the founders BTW ... |
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03-25-26 savo
The Declaration of Independence
:-)))) |
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03-25-26 spal
Iranian demands for an end to the war, according to the WSJ:
- Closure of all US bases in the Gulf
- Guarantees of no further attacks
- End to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah
- Lifting all sanctions on Iran.
- War damage reparations
- No restrictions on the missile program |
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03-25-26 spal
| IRAN'S KHATAM AL-ANBIYA HQ SPOKESPERSON URGES ARAB AND ISLAMIC NATIONS TO FORM SECURITY UNION WITHOUT U.S. AND ISRAEL |
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03-25-26 spal
Yes indeed Savo - in fact I was startled as I reviewed an early draft of the US Declaration of Independence that once read:
The Declaration of Independence
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. And it is self evident that one needs to place windmills where there is wind, and solar panels where there is sun ...
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03-25-26 spal
ISRAEL PREPARES 400,000 RESERVE CALL-UPS
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