08-31-26 pillz
Venezuela
https://www.bloomberg.com/latest/us-attacks-on-venezuela |
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08-31-26 leopardo
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08-31-26 leopardo
I meant that prices will reaction smoothly to this deal
They will increase trough time |
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08-31-26 savo
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08-31-26 carib
| Leo: what happens next friday? |
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08-31-26 leopardo
Too early to judge…We have to wait at least
Until friday afternoon.AT LEAST |
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08-31-26 carib
| Veny bonds up a couple of points. |
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08-31-26 panasonic
"U.S. Precision Strike Neutralizes IRGC Coastal Missile Launchers on Larak Island"
Want asymmetric war, IGRC got some...
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08-31-26 panasonic
DT reading colores?
“One of the things I am going to do with the Venezuelan Oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/6059809-trump-venezuela-spr-deal/
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08-30-26 victor
| On September 4th Giorgia Meloni will become Italy’s longest continuously serving prime minister since Benito Mussolini. |
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08-30-26 carib
As part of the agreement, the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital will provide guarantees to the oil companies that take on the planned licences in order to cover some of the financial and political risks they face in Venezuela.
The OSC was set up under Joe Biden’s administration to boost investment in technologies deemed critical for national security and has the capacity to lend up to $200bn. One person briefed on the deal said the OSC provided a means of offering guarantees to potential investors without asking Congress for funding.
Apart from the guarantees, the US government will not provide any money upfront to the companies taking on the licences. However, according to people briefed on the structure, it could be awarded warrants that could result in it taking equity stakes in the future and would give it the right of first refusal on the oil flows.
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08-30-26 carib
En el caso de los campos maduros que cuentan con infraestructura existente o pozos previamente perforados donde el trabajo se enfoque en servicios de reacondicionamiento y reparación, Calderón Berti estimó que se podrían obtener volúmenes interesantes de producción en un lapso de un año a un año y medio. Por el contrario, el desarrollo en campos totalmente nuevos demandará entre cuatro y cinco años para lograr que ese petróleo ingrese de forma efectiva a los mercados internacionales.
Ante este panorama, concluyó que los anuncios y las recíprocas alabanzas entre las partes responden en gran medida a propaganda con fines político-electorales en Estados Unidos por la cercanía de las elecciones de medio término, que se celebrarán en noviembre. "Hay mucho de propaganda en esto, mucho de propaganda con fines electorales en los Estados Unidos, sin ninguna duda", comentó.
Asimismo, apuntó que al gobierno venezolano le interesa afianzar la relación estratégica con Washington para perpetuarse en el poder, reiterando que resulta sumamente difícil emitir un juicio definitivo sobre contratos cuyo contenido exacto se mantiene en la opacidad. |
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08-30-26 spal
| U.S. Precision Strike Neutralizes IRGC Coastal Missile Launchers on Larak Island |
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08-30-26 spal
it must be sold to PSUV gangs..
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They will be bought off. Venezuela retains expertise in this area. |
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08-30-26 victor
she's democrat
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Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz
4h
Lifting sanctions on Delcy Rodriguez's personal bank accounts does nothing to help Venezuelans. It just allows the same criminal regime to self-enrich and entrench their rule while delaying any steps towards a transition. We must reverse course and push for democracy. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Latins carp and complain more than any people on earth ... I still love them. |
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08-30-26 victor
and doubles down
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3:13 PM · Aug 29, 2026
Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez
🚨#SOSVenezuela La trepadora sabandija de Delcy sabe que si no coopera con las órdenes de Trump terminará peor que Nicolás Maduro.
Todos sabemos de que pata cojea la verduga marginal esta y no es de confiar.
Es una burla grotesca que esté sentada en Miraflores. |
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08-30-26 victor
gimenez isn't changing his views one bit
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2:50 PM · Aug 29, 2026
Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez
🚨#SOSVenezuela Que nadie se engañe sobre con quién estamos tratando en Venezuela.
Delcy es una dictadora interina y a su lado continúa Diosdado Cabello, prófugo de la justicia estadounidense por narcotráfico.
Nuestro objetivo debe ser claro: avanzar hacia una Venezuela libre y democrática, con un nuevo Tribunal Supremo de Justicia, un nuevo Consejo Nacional Electoral, instituciones independientes y elecciones libres, transparentes y verificables. Nada menos será aceptable.
Millones de venezolanos respaldaron a Edmundo González Urrutia y María Corina Machado y tienen que ser parte fundamental del futuro democrático de Venezuela.
Espero que en septiembre continúen las negociaciones entre el régimen y los representantes de la legítima Asamblea Nacional electa en 2015, y que produzcan avances concretos hacia una verdadera transición democrática.
Venezuela será libre y como dijimos desde el inicio: esta lucha es hasta el final.
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08-30-26 spal
| Salazar - poor lady - the train has left the station and all she has is political theater meant to firm up her base and cover her flanks. Asi es ... |
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08-30-26 carib
SPAL: I am aware of that, of course.
But it must be sold to PSUV gangs.. |
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08-30-26 carib
Ukraine’s former defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov is seeking US investment for a defence technology fund he hopes will write a “new history” of the war against Russia by building and managing companies to develop new weapons.
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08-30-26 spal
| Reconfiguring the company into a lean, royalty-collecting landholding body allows real technical talent to be absorbed and paid by private operators, while returning social welfare management back to the national budget where it belongs. Use Sonangol as the model and precedent. |
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08-30-26 victor
maria elvira criticized for deleting/changing posts..
now with a new post, clarifying.
https://x.com/MaElviraSalazar/status/2094086299296690296/photo/1 |
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08-30-26 spal
| Carib - you do realize that PDVSA has not functioned as a real oil company for decades now. In essence it is a patronage distribution vehicle. I find this unarguable. If anything collecting royalties is the best model for that. I expect significant restructure. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Merino amigo - of course what you say is true, but there are now more yet important and more central to the new story, interests vesting in front of them and ultimately you run into a dilemma know as pie size. Pies unfortunately are not magic. |
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08-30-26 Merlino
| https://x.com/luisvicenteleon/status/2094044827776057718 |
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08-30-26 Merlino
| Carib, Yes, many real world ifs....my main interest is to try to guess whether they will try to f**k bondholders, specially PDVSA bondholders |
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08-30-26 carib
| Real world: PDVsa has tens of thousands of employees.. hard to see how to use them for a "royalty collecting" non operating company.. |
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08-30-26 Merlino
By ring-fencing the 17 fields into special purpose vehicles (SPVs) that funnel royalties into state recovery rather than debt service...
But then again you could use your time working out how the world actually operates.
.......................
Real world....about $120b in bonds face value plus accrued to date....I would venture to say that there are large (and direct) vested interests who would like the recovery be as high as possible....hope not to be wrong
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08-30-26 spal
While legal scholars have highlighted clever contractual tricks to isolate PDVSA, a standalone PDVSA-first restructuring will not happen.
The alter-ego court rulings, IMF sustainability requirements, and geopolitical interests of major creditors force Venezuela into a single, unified restructuring. PDVSA and Republic debt will cross the finish line together, bound to the same economic reality.
Of course others may differ - that is why we have secondary markets. |
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08-30-26 carib
| On this I leave the floor to Savo.. who argued PDVsa could be restructured better and before.. |
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08-30-26 carib
| fair.. meaning long term, of course. |
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08-30-26 spal
| fair - meaning longer run - normalized - next few weeks markets will jump around. |
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08-30-26 spal
A 3 to 6 cent discount for unsecured PDVSA notes relative to Sovereign paper represents fair value. Sovereign debt offers superior structural priority in a macro restructuring, while PDVSA paper carries higher corporate subordination and operational ring-fencing risks.
No commission necessary. |
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08-30-26 spal
Can Sanctions Be Tied Directly to the 17-Fields Energy Deal?
Directly. The 17-field agreement is the precise commercial output of the sanctions framework:
Sanctions Created the Discount: By isolating PDVSA and forcing asset degradation, sanctions lowered the price tag and increased the operational concessions Venezuela had to offer to attract foreign capital.
Sanctions Provided the Key: U.S. Treasury licenses (OFAC General Licenses) were the explicit operational "key" required to open the door to private operations. Venezuela could not legally export crude to Western markets or access capital without U.S. regulatory permission.
The Swap (Leverage Realized): Washington used the promise of sanctions relief and market access to secure terms that traditional state-monopoly models would never have accepted—namely, 55% private/foreign operational control, a capped ~30-45% government take, ring-fenced revenue accounts, and crude off-take directed toward U.S. energy security needs.
You may now turn to Hausmamm for a commentary on human rights, resource determination and coercive economic warfare ... he may even give you a degree in it. But then again you could use your time working out how the world actually operates. |
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08-30-26 carib
| Once again: what is the fair spread between PDVsa and sovereign bonds now? |
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08-30-26 spal
| Yes - mentioned below Carib. |
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08-30-26 carib
The U.S. plans to take a 35% passive stake in Betancourt’s North American Blue Energy Partners and would secure preferential rights to purchase 20% of its production at cost, according to people involved in negotiating the agreement.
The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital plans to structure the investment through penny warrants that would yield the U.S. an equity ownership in the business without a significant capital investment, the people said. The Pentagon office has limited statutory authority to strike deals designed to support U.S. national-security interests, typically through loans and guarantees.
WSJ |
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08-30-26 spal
| The upside is pretty much capped now. |
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08-30-26 spal
| buying above 40–45 cents leaves limited upside margin for new entry capital. |
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08-30-26 spal
For traditional bondholders, the deal signals that long-term recovery will rely on long-dated sovereign restructuring agreements and growth-linked warrants (VRIs), rather than PDVSA resuming traditional corporate debt service.
This is now the most likely reality. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Leo - they will bounce for sure. There will be an opportunity to close out. |
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08-30-26 spal
By ring-fencing the 17 fields into special purpose vehicles (SPVs) that funnel royalties into state recovery rather than debt service, the agreement confirms that bondholders are strictly secondary. They face deep principal haircuts (50%+), extended maturities, and payout structures tied to long-term Value Recovery Instruments (VRIs) rather than immediate cash distributions.
Only wrong answers to the above will be accepted. |
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08-30-26 leopardo
No matter what Dear Spal, prices of Vnz/Pdvsa bonds
will start rising from tomorrow.
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08-30-26 spal
But will he also burn the rules book and shield proceeds on new debts from old creditors?
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He does not have to. The creditors will be different. There will be no possibility of consolidation.
I would not put one cent into this if that was even remotely possible. I understand that the law can be an ass and that politics remains the realm of the worse people on earth, but this is how I see the structure. |
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08-30-26 spal
| The 17 fields will be operated under newly created private joint ventures or operational concession entities. This prevents international revenues from being immediately attached or seized by PDVSA’s global creditors in international courts. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Sorry ... Merry Christmas. |
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08-30-26 spal
| PDVSA is being fundamentally restructured, side-stepped, and demoted from an active operational state monopoly into a passive administrative landholding and royalty-collection vehicle. |
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08-30-26 spal
Risk-Adjusted Terms: The lower fiscal take reflects the high capital cost required to rehabilitate Venezuela's dilapidated midstream and upgrading infrastructure, as well as political and sanctions risk premiums.
Shift to Volume over Rent: Venezuela is prioritizing volume restoration (aiming for >1.5 million bpd) over high per-barrel extraction taxes, bringing its fiscal framework closer to liberalized investment environments like the UK North Sea or US Gulf Coast rather than traditional OPEC state-monopoly models. |
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08-30-26 spal
Total Government Take (State Rent)
Global Norm: In mature major-reserve countries or frontier basins, total government take (royalties + corporate income taxes + state participation profits) typically ranges between 60% and 85%. High-cost or high-risk offshore regions (like Brazil Pre-Salt, Norway, or Angola) generally capture 65% to 75% for the host government.
The 17-Fields Deal: By yielding an estimated ~$19/bbl on a $65 price deck (~29% gross revenue share before profit tax deductions), the effective fiscal take lands well below global averages for major oil-producing nations.
This reflects a substantial concession to attract international capital into heavily degraded infrastructure. |
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08-30-26 carib
Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, cautioned: “Rising rates are one of the biggest risks to equity and credit markets . . . We are entering the area where further rises in rates would be negative for both equity and credit.”
If rates were to rise, with the crucial US 10-year Treasury yield moving above 5 per cent, then “we should see a negative reaction to equity markets”, he added, as the higher bond yields would erode the relative appeal of equities while higher borrowing costs would squeeze profits.
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08-30-26 carib
| Hausman, IMHO, spoke off the cuff too early. |
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08-30-26 carib
| The second question, obviously, is the survival (or not) of PDVsa. |
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08-30-26 carib
The actual question is Veny needs big investments.
But will they be direct investments from the private sector.. or does Veny urgently need to get back to the bond market?
Trump, if I get it right, wants to shield oil revenues from litigating creditors. But will he also burn the rules book and shield proceeds on new debts from old creditors?
If the rules book remains valid, and Veny wants to get back to borrowing in the bonds market.. our bonds should recover well, IMHO. |
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08-30-26 Merlino
Good speech by Delcy, imho
The deal seems to include a reasonable take for Veni. This is necessary for the deal to stand, as persons/interests left besides it will make noise now and in the future.
Haussman an example...and IYI (N Taleb)...mcm has not been herd as yet
It seems the money related to this deal will not flow through PDVSA....I hope it will however it does not seems so...then I hope both debts republic/pdvsa will be equally treated at due curse |
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08-30-26 victor
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08-30-26 savo
leo.. prices should go through.... the roof.
There is here basically a US commitment to produce 1.5 mm barrels per annum on top of the 1MM+ being produced now... and the additional production that will come from other deals with Shell, B, Eni, etc...
this US deal changes the landscape completely.
The market still want to see some confirmation coming from the restructuring committee though. |
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08-30-26 savo
that was a silly post...
DT himself said:
"working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela"
so Delcy is the President of Veni... interim or not... she can sign as president. |
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08-30-26 victor
carib, sure..
however, apparently, maria elvira erased her initial post re this matter.
as if someone told her to erase it.
but someone made a screen capture before she erased it:
https://x.com/cumanesa/status/2093810919960928520
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08-30-26 leopardo
In the next days / few weeks we will see Vnz Pdvsa
Prices Go through the highs reached a few months
ago. |
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08-30-26 panasonic
"entirely within executive prerogative"
Interesting, in play:
From USA part, if solid enough and can't be undone easily, it will cement necessary "trust" required for private investments.
From Delcy's side, she will sign anything that keeps her afloat till DT's presidency is over.
Haussman, zzz take as needed, do I need recipe or can be bought otc? |
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08-30-26 savo
Maria Elvira sounds a bit desperate...
why is she not happy for veni?
or was she supposed to receive a compensation from MCM for services delivered? |
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08-30-26 carib
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08-30-26 carib
SPAL: The agreement will be be crafted to bypass congressional consent.. no surprise here.
But if it is not supported by a legitimate Veny government in the next few years, a future US president can easily revert the policy. The lease would stand, commercially, but the US might stop backing it militarily.
It will yield profits after a few years, for the investors, given the capital spending required, so it is wise to make it POLITICALLY solid on both sides.
IMHO.
Meanwhile, I hope bonds trade up soon. |
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08-30-26 victor
Rep. María Elvira Salazar
El acuerdo petrolero entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela es un gran acuerdo para Estados Unidos y para el pueblo venezolano.
Durante años, China se aprovechó de la debilidad de Venezuela para comprar su petróleo con grandes descuentos. Ahora Estados Unidos está tomando la iniciativa, y la inversión y la influencia estadounidense le ofrecen a Venezuela un camino hacia la prosperidad, la estabilidad y la seguridad.
Delcy es la persona equivocada para hacer este acuerdo.
Queremos que este acuerdo dure 100 años. Solo un gobierno respaldado por instituciones democráticas sólidas y el Estado de derecho puede garantizarlo. Y eso solo será posible con elecciones libres.
Entonces, este acuerdo podrá perdurar por generaciones. |
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08-30-26 savo
Leo.. interesting Delcy speech.
This story is better than expected.
It is essentially a deal to produce 1.5mm barrels per year during the next 25 years on top of whatever veni is producing now via Chevron and others.
It involves 17 oil fields not all fields.
Companies from other parts of the world will continue operating in veni as they are or will be invited to come.
The deal with the US is to act as middle man vis a vis US oil companies.
It is a win-win-win-win... not only win-win-win.
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08-30-26 leopardo
Getting 209bln in 25yrs vs 100yrs is a big difference.
Everything is calculated on a 65 usd price per barrel |
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08-30-26 leopardo
Con este acuerdo, que implica una inversión de 100.000 millones de dólares, se espera que los 17 «campos estratégicos» que operará Estados Unidos alcancen una producción de 1,5 millones de barriles diarios, lo que acercaría a Venezuela a sus picos históricos.
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08-30-26 leopardo
Deal is for 25 years so Vnz will get much more than expected
https://albertonews.com/politica/delcy-rodriguez-se-pronuncia-sobre-historico-acuerdo-energetico-con-ee-uu-marcara-el-futuro-de-venezuela/ |
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08-30-26 spal
Mauricio Claver-Carone – The Intermediary & Back-Channel Planner
Role: Informal Latin America Advisor & High-Level Emissary.
Operating outside formal diplomatic bureaucracy, Claver-Carone acted as the key connection connecting Washington decision-makers directly to Alejandro Betancourt and Caracas insiders. Having spent years designing "maximum pressure" frameworks and dealing with Venezuelan private equity, he identified Betancourt’s NABEP as the pre-packaged commercial shell needed to execute the project without waiting for major integrated oil majors. |
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08-30-26 spal
Privately held Venezuelan service companies—many tied to allies of the Rodríguez family stand to capture lucrative subcontracts (shock , horror ...)
;) |
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08-30-26 spal
| Betancourt acts as the field allocator for the White House, identifying specific productive blocks, evaluating field mechanics, and assigning high-yield fields to fast-moving, aligned U.S. wildcatters. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Bolichico embracing the 100 year lease concept. Well no surprise there. |
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08-30-26 spal
| US to take 35% stake in Venezuelan mogul Betancourt's oil venture, WSJ reports |
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08-30-26 spal
I am Venezuelan. I teach economic growth at Harvard's Kennedy School. These are the first two lines of his profile on X. I almost died laughing.
I am Venezuelan ... I teach economic growth ... FFS. |
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08-30-26 spal
| It costs Hausmann nothing to bloviate. Doing a deal like this is essentially very messy and takes extreme commercial savvy. Something that he will never have. |
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08-30-26 spal
Hausmann is stuck being Hausmann and fully deserves it. He is the status quo referee for the rule book. He could not work his way out of any really knotty and intractable problems - hence he bloviates.
This is where theory meets deal making. Let him carp. He is harmless. |
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