08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, from an internal point of view inside the party, hiding Biden's health to skip primaries, what would you call it?
Now, if you think Kamala would have won primaries anywas, yes I would agree with you 100%, but...
On step forward, can you be sure another democrat elected in primaries would have lose elections? personally, I'm not sure.
The butterfly effect ;-) |
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08-23-26 victor
| George Washington and James Monroe were elected without partisan primaries or opposition, as the early U.S. lacked a structured two-party system. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, that is not the point. you mentioned a coup.
there was no such thing as a coup.
it's about securing the required # of delegates.
primaries are the main mechanism of achieving such goal, but it's certainly not the only way of doing so. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| ...so long story short, Kamala would have not won primaries. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| without Biden "in" primaries |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, without Biden primaries, he already had an aggressive cance by January 2024.
Interesting to note (from Gemini):
"Precedent of Other Presidents: Other modern presidents, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, routinely underwent and publicly disclosed PSA test results during their annual physicals.
The omission in Biden's reports left a critical blind spot that allowed an aggressive, Gleason score 9 cancer to spread to his bones undetected."
Omission on something that was routinely done to all presidents, a simple PSA test? |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, similar to lbj and humphrey.
lbj resigns as candidate after the primaries had taken place, because he realized his popularity was low..
so humphrey becomes candidate, after securing the required delegate votes..
no primaries for humphrey either. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, the democratic thing to do was calling primaries.
//
wait a second. this was not possible, as primaries had already taken place, and biden won said primaries.
then, apparently, his health took a turn for the worse.. biden withdraws.. and she receives the required delegate votes.
//
Joe Biden won the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries, securing 3,905 pledged delegates (98.9%) and 87.1% of the popular vote before suspending his campaign on July 21, 2024. Although he clinched the nomination on March 12, 2024, he withdrew from the general election race, becoming the first eligible incumbent president since 1968 to do so after securing the nomination.
Following Biden's withdrawal, the Democratic Party nominated Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate through a virtual roll call at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Harris received 4,567 delegate votes to officially become the nominee.
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08-23-26 panasonic
Leo, I'm more in the 3x ETFs camp right now, using call spreads.
Paper Gold me doing $UGL, my thinking behind such bets is very simple, ride the rally while limiting my loss. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
Instead of phisical gold/ gold etf I hold k92 as a Gold
investment and portfolio diversification.
It’s gold leveraged without knock outs/margins |
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I have the same attitude.. but I remember feeling Samsung was "toppish" when it hit 350K..
I bought it at 70K, so no problem.. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
For example: bought k92 at 24.5 it went at 32 I did not sell.
It got back to 20 now it is at 30.
I still hold. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, at least give me your version of what happened there, we can't compare notes otherwise.
Biden was already in advanced stage of cancer months before elections, the democratic thing to do was calling primaries.
Kamala's attempt to skip primaries and become President once Biden got re-elected was (to me) a coup inside the dems party.
Now, pls give me yours. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| Trading and scalping, my current job :-) |
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08-23-26 leopardo
From a trader’s point of view yes.
I have the luck and strenght that I can tolerate
volatility as my time horizon is long/ very long.
I invest in companies on fondamentals looking at
technical patterns only to chose the appropriate moment
to buy. |
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I agree.
Yet, 350K was a temporary top, and traders should have sold, to buy back 25% cheaper soon after..
In hindsight, of course. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
| I’ve never been a trader or a scalper. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
Carib I’m a long term investor and I see that Samsung fundamentals
are pre try strong.
I will hold at least for one more year if not much more. |
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08-23-26 savo
You could move to New York City.
Rent an 852-square-foot apartment for $5,503 a month.
Blow $500 on three “first dates” a week and somehow remain single for six years.
Finally meet someone you like, then discover they’re “not really looking for anything serious right now.”
Get a master’s degree so you can qualify for an internship.
Apply to 147 jobs, get 93 automated rejections, and finally find an “entry-level” position requiring five years of experience.
Eventually land a six-figure job and still need a roommate to make rent.
Pay federal income tax, New York State income tax, AND New York City income tax because apparently living there is a three-level subscription.
Learn that a “quiet neighborhood” means the sirens only come by every 20 minutes.
Pay $27 every day for a sandwich (no sides) because the place has exposed brick and a handwritten menu.
Take the subway to work every morning and develop the useful skill of pretending not to notice absolutely anything happening around you.
Spend 45 minutes traveling three miles.
Carry your groceries home six blocks because parking near your apartment is more of a philosophical concept than an actual possibility.
Have “owning a washer and dryer” become one of your primary measures of generational wealth.
Walk past a mountain of trash bags on your way to a restaurant with a Michelin star.
Tell your friends back home you don’t need a car while spending $46 on an Uber because the subway is delayed again.
Go to Central Park when you want to remember what trees look like.
Spend your twenties telling everyone you could NEVER live anywhere else.
Then one day you visit your cousin in Iowa.
He has a house with four bedrooms, a garage, a yard, two cars, four kids, and somehow pays less than you do for the apartment where your refrigerator touches your couch.
But hey.
The NYC bagels are incredible.
https://x.com/joshuabarzon/status/2089347718632124918 |
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08-23-26 victor
| savo, i remember dt saying that he tells the treasury secy what to do. |
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08-23-26 savo
Elon's
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cdn5gsAV8CE |
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08-23-26 savo
Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the Treasury.
Consider the record. In 2000, Scott Bessent left Soros to run $1 billion of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried again with Key Square, co-founded with Soros alum Michael Germino and seeded with $2 billion of Soros money — which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 180 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018, Soros — the man who staked him — took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal.
Which brings us to the question: is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, Treasury yields, and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind the market tragically failed to appreciate? Or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him — and sell? He believes he’s smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam. Twice.
https://x.com/gordonjohnson19/status/2091159921760796799
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08-23-26 carib
| But, in hindsight, we should have sold @350.000 wons |
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08-23-26 leopardo
Of course.
A mix of them suits me well |
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I saw, and have no influence on Samsung board decisions.
As a shareholder, I notice that dividends suffer a withholding tax, and share buybacks should cause an increase in the value of the outstanding shares that implies no tax |
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08-23-26 leopardo
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I saw that.
I would prefer shares buyback.. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, Kamala's attempt of a coup inside dems party
what ????
we must live on different planets, pana.
i feel totally unrelated to some of the stuff you post. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
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08-23-26 leopardo
Samsung Capital Return Program (2026)
Samsung Electronics has approved a record shareholder return framework totaling 90 trillion to 110 trillion South Korean won (~$65 billion to $80 billion USD), marking the largest capital return package ever by a South Korean company.
www.thelec.net
Measure Amount (KRW) Amount (USD) Timeline / Details
Total Return Framework 90T – 110T won ~$65B – $80B Total capital allocation planned for 2026.
Q3 2026 Dividends ~30T won ~$21.7B Includes regular and special cash dividends. Operational details to be finalized at the late-October 2026 Board meeting.
Final 2026 Remuneration Remaining pool (~60T–80T won) ~$43B – $58B Balance of cash dividends, buybacks, and share cancellations to be finalized at the January 2027 Board meeting.
Treasury Buyback (Separate) 15T won ~$10.8B Open-market share acquisition (~53.3 million shares) designated for employee incentive programs.
Key Implementation Phases
October 2026 Board Meeting: Samsung will finalize the exact distribution breakdown between regular and special cash dividends for the ~30 trillion won Q3 payout.
January 2027 Board Meeting: The Board will determine the precise structure—combining additional cash dividends, share buybacks, and share retirements—for the remaining balance based on final 2026 Free Cash Flow (FCF) metrics.
MLQ.ai
(Note: Under Samsung's 2024–2026 shareholder return policy, the company aims to distribute 50% of cumulative free cash flow to shareholders. Exact distributions remain subject to final operating earnings, CapEx spending, and cash flow generation.)
www.thelec.net |
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08-23-26 carib
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08-23-26 panasonic
Carib, after Kamala's attempt of a coup inside dems party, me became ultra pessimistic (as posted many times here), party has been unable to deliver a proper "internal" response, so US politics now down to a war between influencers.
Big loser democracy, big winner is China of course. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
"Carib: we have access to the same polls, on-line."
Prediction markets will replace traditional polls imho.
We don't follow that much, but younger generations do...will be very interesting to watch which reads are more accurate. |
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08-23-26 carib
Victor: that was Biden's illusion.
My opinion is the US political system is very sick.
The GOP has been replaced by a cult, and the Dems appear to be confused about what they stand for.
No serious third party in sight either.
Today, someone said, politics is hatred+algorytms.. |
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08-23-26 victor
carib, i suppose biden's argument for running would be:
i did because i am the only one who was able to beat dt..
not hillary.. not kamala. |
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08-23-26 carib
PS. I agree Biden's biggest mistake was not to identify a strong successor, and then decide it was time to retire.
People should not take very heavy duty executive positions, in my opinion, older than 65.
But then there is vanity.. |
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08-23-26 carib
Victor: we have access to the same polls, on-line.
I just asked your prediction, and you asked mine.
Then, early november, we will see what actually happens. |
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08-23-26 carib
| “It is an irony of history that strategic failure in Iran will haunt [Trump] too. He never wanted to become Carter and now he is becoming him.” |
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08-23-26 victor
savo, this is how irresponsible biden was, in wanting to run for re-election.
had he won, he would be very sick right now.
//
Ex-President Joe Biden's cancer has spread, is very painful, son says
Updated August 9, 2026
Aug 8 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Joe Biden's prostate cancer has spread beyond his bones and is very painful, his son, Hunter Biden, said in an interview with the BBC.
“The cancer has spread, metastasized into his bones and further,” Hunter Biden told BBC's "Newsnight," according to video posted online on Friday. “It’s very painful and it’s very debilitating in many respects.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ex-president-joe-bidens-cancer-has-spread-is-very-painful-son-says-2026-08-08/
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08-23-26 victor
carib, according to the hill, there are 8 gop seats that could flip in the senate.. 8.. which is a lot.
one of them is tx.. but other than that??
//
Senate rankings: 8 GOP seats that could flip in November
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6026446-senate-gop-seats-flip-midterms/
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08-23-26 victor
savo, but that doesn't mean anything
DT is not in his right mind
//
what do you mean it means nothing??
biden was not in his right mind..
and he didn't do anything regarding vz. |
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08-23-26 victor
| carib, what's so special about the tx senate race that you singled it out? |
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08-23-26 carib
Facts about the past, if analysed impartially, are objective,
but opinions about them remain subjective.
Perennial confrontation of subjective and diverging opinions about the past is a waste of time, unless it includes the unveiling of previously unknown facts.
Discussion and predictions about the future are useful, because the job of investors is largely based on correct predictions about the future. |
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08-23-26 carib
Victor: forecast is not equal to certain.
And I wrote "rebus sic stantibus".
The future is by definition uncertain. |
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08-23-26 savo
the only thing his advisors could come up with was more sanctions... same as in iran... after 6 months of a needless war to please the bloodthirsty israelis and destroying a lot of military equipment which they now have to replace borrowing more money or printing more funny money ... he went back to the original book and only book they have... sanctions... trade disruption... economic damage... etc...
The good thing about veni is that the country was so weak that no clever crook around him came up with the idea of bombing veni. Had veni been stronger... they would have. |
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08-23-26 savo
yes victor... but that doesn't mean anything... he gave the go ahead as he has given the go ahead to every dumb move his advisors have recommended on the economy.. on tariffs... on war.. etc.
This did not come from him or his advisors... it came from veni.
DT is not in his right mind..every time he opens his mouth either he lies or he says stupidities.
This is a dangerous president.. for the country and for the world...
|
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08-23-26 victor
savo, be fair.
dt had to give the go-ahead for the us military to capture and extract him from vz. |
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08-22-26 savo
the only positive: maduro.
and that wasn't him...
it was Delcy, Jorge and Diosdado who were fed up with Maduro
DT was doing his usual stupidities... sanctions.
|
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08-22-26 panasonic
A robot has outperformed humans by running faster than Usain Bolt's 100m sprint world record at the World Humanoid Robot Games in China.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cgljl9zp47xo |
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08-22-26 victor
carib, what makes you so certain that talarico will win?
//
Democrats have not won a Texas U.S. Senate seat since 1988, but the 2026 election presents a highly competitive race where the Democratic nominee holds a narrow polling lead. James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination on March 3, 2026, defeating U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett with 52.4% of the vote in a fiercely contested primary.
Current polling averages from August 2026 show Talarico leading the Republican nominee, Attorney General Ken Paxton, by approximately 1.6 to 2 percentage points (47.2% to 45.6%). Prediction markets currently assign Talarico a 52% chance of winning, marking the first time in decades that a Democrat is favored in a Texas statewide Senate contest.
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08-22-26 victor
carib, but lose Texas
what is going on in texas to think that dems will win? |
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08-22-26 carib
| rebus sic stantibus.. Republicans will lose the House, and might keep the Senate (but lose Texas) |
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08-22-26 victor
carib, i don't really know.
house: democrats win, guessing.
senate: few seats are in play, buy maybe dems gain a couple of seats?
but karoline leaving.. why would she leave?
does she want to get away from dt before the midterms?
does she know something?
your forecast? |
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08-22-26 carib
Victor: you forecast of mid-term results?
|
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08-22-26 victor
so dt doesn't want canada to trade with others??
//
En nuevas declaraciones a los medios, Carney ha denunciado que EE. UU. intentó limitar la capacidad de Canadá para cerrar otros acuerdos comerciales, una estrategia que el primer ministro ha impulsado desde el inicio de su mandato para diversificar las relaciones comerciales y reducir la dependencia de Washington. Esta exigencia de última hora podría haber sido una de las razones para desestabilizar el acuerdo. |
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08-22-26 victor
"last spring, i warned that america is trying to break us, so they can own us.."
https://x.com/MarkJCarney/status/2091216789745143956
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08-22-26 victor
" what the Trump administration had demanded was a “bad deal”."
//
looks like nothing is working for dt lately.
no canada 51st state. no greenland. no panama.
no iran deal..
not even the trade embargo on spain. disappointing. :-))
and karoline leavitt has left her job, supposedly because of her kids. i doubt that.
the only positive: maduro. |
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08-22-26 carib
Canada was “at war” over trade with the US after President Donald Trump “miscalculated” by escalating his tariff attack, Prime Minister Mark Carney said.
Carney delivered a defiant address to the nation on Saturday after suspending trade talks with the US overnight, saying that what the Trump administration had demanded was a “bad deal”.
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08-22-26 carib
El presidente de la Asamblea Nacional (AN), Jorge Rodríguez, destituyó al diputado Antonio Ecarri de la presidencia del Grupo Amistad Parlamentaria Venezuela-Estados Unidos.
“La razón es clara: sus acciones han sido irresponsables y han vulnerado el ordenamiento jurídico que estamos obligados a defender“, expresó Rodríguez en un comunicado publicado en sus redes sociales.
La controversia surgió luego de que Ecarri asegurara este viernes que trabaja junto con el economista estadounidense Steve Hanke en una propuesta para avanzar hacia la dolarización formal de la economía venezolana, después de que Rodríguez negara que el Parlamento haya contratado al académico para diseñar una estrategia monetaria.
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08-22-26 carib
| Kantian ethics, three centuries old.. |
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08-22-26 carib
| Victor: I am aware of that, but my opinion remains unaffected. |
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08-22-26 victor
spal, make it right
//
seriously? so you are the one keeping score? funny indeed. |
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08-22-26 spal
BTW when someone saids "I would do the same" - they say that as an endorsement and to somehow legitimize the activity with their personal credibility.
Otherwise it would be stupid that they said it.
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08-22-26 spal
what do they do? they run (and swim) to reach spain ASAP.. ASAP.. ASAP.
i would to the same, if i were those guys.
===
Somehow I had a vision of you swimming for Ceuta ... it was as funny as it was facile.
If you would do this it said something about you, but does not make it right just because you would do it.
Anyhow this is getting boring. |
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08-22-26 panasonic
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08-22-26 victor
| spal, nothing to do with what i said. |
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08-22-26 victor
pana, i see. sure, you are right.
but sanchez is a sleazebag all the way to the stretch. and he's betting on these immigrants to become citizens and vote for him, in 2027 or IN THE FUTURE.
if sanchez loses in 2027, he's not going away like rajoy.
he's keeping himself in congress, maneuvering for his return to moncloa, in a future election. |
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08-22-26 spal
| And by doing the same does that mean you identify as an African immigrant? Maybe you do - there are stranger things. |
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08-22-26 spal
Not keeping score - you just said you'd do the same ... my point is so what that does not make it right.
But if you would do the same ... then bully for you. |
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08-22-26 panasonic
Vic, read what I wrote:
"IF" he (and Supremo and his voters) want...
Which clearly is not the case, and not helping him served as a warning, put controls or... |
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08-22-26 victor
carib, it's also an economic issue for the govt, as Hacienda is "richer" than ever..
my esteemed miriam, who likes to pretend she cares about the working-class, wrote a lengthy article..
the title provides a good summary.
//
L'Estat cada cop és més ric amb una classe mitjana cada cop més empobrida
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08-22-26 victor
carib, not an economic one
//
working-class locals will likely disagree with you.
for them it's an economic issue, as it's all about keeping wages low thanks to immigrants. |
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08-22-26 carib
My rules would be very simple: legal immigration for non criminal working people should be easy.
Illegal immigration should lead to deportation.
Political asylum should be available, but on very limited circumstances.
Both the EU and the USA need immigrants, but the host should be able to decide whom to allow in, and whom to keep out. |
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08-22-26 carib
Panas: that does not answer my question.
IMHO the spanish immigration laws are way too lax.. but this is a legal and political issue, not an economic one. |
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08-22-26 victor
pana, Schengen doors are shut down
//
not happening.. other than italy, temporarily.
sanchez applied the same to italy, btw.
and it affects italians more than spaniards, as italians travel more to spain than the opposite.
//
Spain consistently ranks as the number one foreign destination for Italians traveling outside of Italy during the summer holiday season. |
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08-22-26 victor
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08-22-26 panasonic
Carib, it is my understanding that EU showed the middle finger to Sanchez when he asked for help during the crisis, which is good, if he (and Supremo and his voters) want to become a country with wide open borders, makes sense that Schengen doors are shut down.
Spain is the land of the Woks, strange people btw, they support a nuclear Iran with long range misiles, that will eventually point to them when resist Muslims beating gays, lesbians and women without burka in their streets, crazy days. |
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08-22-26 panasonic
| Vic, as long as measures are implemented to prevent further escalation, Supremo is probably right. |
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08-22-26 carib
To which extent is the spanish economy doing relatively well.. because of the additional influx of migrants?
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08-22-26 spaldo
_justify?? who is keeping score?_ True ...
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08-22-26 victor
pana, in today's news.. (which i would be reading if i were trying to cross).
the PP wants to force sanchez and his people to go to the senate to give explanations on ceuta.. to force his hand.
the Supremo just said No. it's not urgent.
so sanchez can continue handling this matter as he wishes, for now at least..
and without providing any explanations to anyone.
//
El Supremo rechaza la petición del PP para forzar la comparecencia de los ministros en el Senado
El tribunal desestima conceder la medida cautelar solicitada por “no acreditarse la especial urgencia legalmente exigible para proceder de esta manera con sacrificio del derecho de audiencia de la parte contraria”
La Sala de vacaciones del Tribunal Supremo ha dictado este sábado un auto en el que deniega la medida cautelarísima solicitada por tres senadores del Partido Popular, en nombre de éste, en relación a la no comparecencia de varios ministros en el Senado durante este mes de agosto tras la crisis migratoria desencadenada en Ceuta.
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08-22-26 victor
| spal, justify?? who is keeping score? |
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08-22-26 spal
i would to the same, if i were those guys.
===
Which still does not necessarily justify it. I think you know that. |
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08-22-26 victor
Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States :-))
//
Tucker Carlson just met with Lightweight “Former” Congressman, Thomas Massie, and Marjorie “Traitor” Greene, LOSERS ALL! Tucker’s “Views” have fallen through the floor, and will only get worse. Nobody cares about him any longer in that he has become totally irrelevant, and happens to be, surprisingly, a very Low I.Q. individual. He could barely get out of College, and maybe he didn’t, but only really dumb people can’t make it through that wonderful four year time in life! Tucker wants to run for political office, but he should be required to take a cognitive test. He’s got no chance, but could probably take a couple of points away from whatever the Republican ticket happens to be! Tucker is a loser, and always has been! Marjorie Taylor Brown (Green turns to Brown under stress!), a highly neurotic young woman, went from Ultra Conservative to a Liberal “Fool,” all in a matter of weeks, because I refused to return her phone calls — Not because I didn’t like her, just because I had no time. She was way down in the Polls in Georgia (because I took away my Endorsement), and would have had no chance at winning, so she, just like everyone else, “QUIT!” Thomas Massie has turned out to be a failed politician, and a real JERK. He thought it was really wonderful to vote, “NO,” on everything, no matter how good, strong, or proper the Legislation would be. What a team this would be, THREE LOSERS, and a pocketful of change! The only chance they have is to join the Radical Left Dumocrats, and try breaking into the Primary System. To all of them I say, PRAISE BE TO ALLAH! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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