11-06-26 victor
carib, why is it a bad sign?
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11-06-26 carib
| the danger zone is between now and the moment when both new US congress and new Israeli government will be in office. |
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11-06-26 carib
Trump replacing Wiles with Miller is a bad sign.
we are in for trouble, IMHO. |
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11-06-26 victor
a few minutes ago:
Apenas reanudado el debate, la senadora Yolanda Paredes (Cruzada Nacional) tomó la palabra y encendió las alarmas en el plenario al solicitar formalmente que las autoridades competentes confirmen de inmediato el paradero real de Santiago Peña. La legisladora sostuvo que la ausencia del mandatario en el recinto legislativo y la exclusiva comparecencia de sus abogados defensores despiertan fundadas sospechas de que habría salido clandestinamente del territorio nacional. |
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11-06-26 savo
| victor.. i do not know.. may be.... employment numbers are tricky to understand... |
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11-06-26 victor
savo, that's right.
however, if the intial #s are pretty optimistic, like right now, the odds of massive unemployment decreases, even if later on revised downwards. |
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11-06-26 savo
victor... numbers change a lot after the intial number... sometimes up sometimes down..
Example:
feb 26 first was -92K. Third revision was -156k
May 172k... third revision 63K
June 57k... third revision 31K
others went from negative to positive... from positive to more positive... from positive to negative...
the point is that the first number means nothing.
But... from Jan to July 2026 which is the last month for which there is a 3rd revision...
First numbers added to 537k
Third numbers added to 450K
Hence first numbers are usually higher than 3rd numbers... and who knows what the final number will really be when they publish it next year.
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11-06-26 panasonic
| I strongly recommend watching CNBC interview with Open AI's Sarah Friar. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
Spal, no need to probe anything, just articulate a legal frame where ultra rich can't evade taxes via loopholes.
My suspicion is that they prefer to take direct aim at certain people bcz they personally use exactly same loopholes.
So my answer is same as decades W.Buffet has been rooting for, solve the legal frame for everyone, keep it institutional not discretionary to be used as a political weapon. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
| Vic, I would like to understand why extremes in both parties have been able to silence their centers, maybe you have better visibility. |
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11-06-26 spal
| Panas - I am 100% behind those probes. |
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11-06-26 victor
pana, that's what happens when you get too close to dt.. you get burned.
ma elvira is a good example:
1. she dared to express a different perspective than dt on immigration.
2. dt called for her to be challenged by someone else in primaries.
3. when it didnt work out, and nobody challenged her, last minute dt was posting "vote for ma elvira".
what kind of bs is this?
4. now there is a recount in fl-27. |
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11-06-26 victor
savo.. sept's revised #s:
September's underwhelming jobs report of 29,000 additions was also revised upward to 60,000 jobs.
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11-06-26 panasonic
Vic, my fears being confirmed (vamos a freir a los ricos en aceite)
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4667941-democrats-prepare-corporate-probe-wave-targeting-apple-meta-musk-cos-report |
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11-06-26 savo
victor... US added 165,000 jobs in October
The US did not add anything... or at least they do not know if that was the case.
The first employment number that comes out every month relative to the previous month.. is a fabrication... That number is revised many times... most frequently downwards.. until some months after they are able to report the real number. |
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11-06-26 victor
savo, also, she explains the reason why she is able to do it..
and why maybe other politicos cannot do it:
"I was able to raise around $4 million this cycle with a large portion in small-dollar donations" |
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11-06-26 victor
pana, that's right. that's their dream job..
then you have reality, which people adjust to eventually.
for now at least, jobs are being created. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
Vic, job report is BS^10, Americans don't want "taquito's job".
They want well paid, inside a modern working place with A/C and capuccinos. |
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11-06-26 victor
savo, btw, ai is not cutting jobs yet, apparently..
//
'A blowout': US added 165,000 jobs in October, trouncing expectations
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, blowing past economists' expectations, as the labor market showed strength despite the Federal Reserve's recent rate hikes.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% amid a slight increase in labor force participation. September's underwhelming jobs report of 29,000 additions was also revised upward to 60,000 jobs.
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11-06-26 victor
savo, she admits most do.. and is breaking away from such practice.
people are keeping score, savo.
//
I will be ** one of a HANDFUL ** of elected officials who will not take this money anymore |
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11-06-26 savo
victor...I will no longer be taking corporate PAC money or any special interest money tied to foreign policy.
I do not believe that...
it is in the nature of all US politicians to take any money they are offered and sell the interest of the country to whoever gives them money.
If in doubt always expect the worst from these people.
Between balancing the budget or overspending... they will overspend...
Between bombing innocent civilians and not bombing innocent civilians.. they will bomb them..
Between borrowing or cutting spending they will borrow
Between taking bribes or being honest... they will take the bribe...
Between respecting international agreements or violating them... they will violate them...
Between lying to the people of telling the truth... they will lie
between respecting market capitalism or interfering they will interfere
between financial represion and free money markets ..they will repress...
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11-06-26 victor
pana.. and some positive changes after the gop debacle:
//
Anna Paulina Luna
Announcement:
I will no longer be taking corporate PAC money or any special interest money tied to foreign policy. This cycle, I was able to raise around $4 million this cycle with a large portion in small-dollar donations. I will be one of a handful of elected officials who will not take this money anymore, and I think that’s incredibly important for the American people.
More elected officials should do it, but campaign finance is a double-edged sword, and it can be incredibly expensive to run for office, so some are unable to do so at this point until they build up a bigger support base.
It is important to lead by example.
Thank you all for your continued support, and I look forward to the 120th Congress.
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11-06-26 victor
carib
TalkRadio 77 WABC
The State Department strongly denies reports that Secretary Marco Rubio plans to resign ahead of a potential 2028 presidential campaign, calling the claims “completely baseless fake news.” |
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11-06-26 victor
pana, even with the new congress in place next yeear, maybe they will put the brakes on iran..
but they won't put the brakes on vz. |
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11-06-26 victor
pana, "and no one to defend her?"
dt has to deliver.
//
US President Donald Trump says the US may have to “destroy” the rest of Iran and that rebuilding will take 25 years, adding that people will “know soon enough” if he acts. |
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11-06-26 spal
Alvopetro Q3 update released tonight -and how I avoid the world melting down and secure solid dividend flows and an expanding resource base.
This is a classic cash-generative compounder - a high-netback, long-life natural gas production in Brazil’s Tucano Basin, supplemented by high-margin liquid yields and short-cycle Canadian heavy oil cash flows.
It does not rely on speculative exploration, but rather is a self-funded, asset-backed dividend and reserve-expansion engine.
The co finds itself at a pivotal operational transition point. Generating $14.3 million in Q3 funds flow at an 86% operating netback margin ($60.87/boe), the company's core Brazilian natural gas production easily covers its US$0.12/share quarterly dividend (~7% yield) while maintaining $32.6 million in raw cash reserves.
Recent subsurface results at Murucututu—specifically the 183-G2 well encountering 96.9 meters of net pay 65 meters updip—confirm substantial reservoir scale and continuity, while a 700% acreage expansion in the Tucano Basin secures multi-decade inventory. This is new news and good news.
Future Trajectory
Over the next 12 to 24 months, Alvopetro is positioned for a fundamental equity re-rating driven by three key operational phases:
Completing the 4x expansion of field processing and pipeline capacity (from 150 to 600 e3m3/d) removes the physical bottleneck on gas monetization.
Bringing the 183-G2 well on stream accelerates production volumes toward 4,500+ boepd and triggers formal conversion of logged pay into 1P/2P Proved & Probable Developed Reserves during the GLJ audit. This is key - you have to connect to declare reserves.
Multi-basin growth—combining high-netback Brazilian gas with fast-payback Canadian heavy oil—drives funds flow beyond $65M+ annually, expanding Net Asset Value (NAV) toward a CAD $12.50 – $17.50+ valuation range. |
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11-06-26 spal
BREAKING: South Korea’s KOSPI collapses -9%, triggering a trading halt, after opening for the first time since today’s US market decline.
Whoops |
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11-06-26 spal
Argentina served as the primary regional liquidity and asset-clearing hub through which siphoned Ueno funds were converted and stored, while simultaneously offering the geographical and legal corridor for political figures seeking to evade domestic prosecution.
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11-06-26 spal
| Honestly this is a crying shame for Paraguay, but most of the elites across these countries are fundamentally and irredeemably corrupt. There will be no real progress until they break this cycle. |
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11-06-26 spal
| He fucked around and now will find out. |
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11-06-26 spal
As ex-pres Peña automatically becomes a life senator and as such currently enjoys immunity from prosecution. The senate there needs to vote (2/3 rds) to strip this - this will happen IMO. This is about 48 hours away. He has to skip prior to Interpol Red Notices. This will likely be via car or light plane to Uruguay or Argentina where he will claim political asylum and fight extradition.
His finger prints are all over this scam - which was a scheme designed to skim mostly state deposits and push out loans to related parties. He was an important shareholder of Ueno Bank - which he kept as president and is deeply implicated. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
Vic, yes my friend, the institutional path is super clear.
Q: who invests in a country where the lady president can wake one day with Miraflores surrounded by heavily armed narcos and no one to defend her? |
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11-06-26 victor
Federico A. Black B.
Vocero de la presidencia de Paraguay asegura que Santiago Peña está en Paraguay y que afrontará (mañana) el juicio político en su contra.
Dice que por temas de seguridad no puede decir en qué parte de la capital está el Presidente. |
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11-06-26 panasonic
Rubio ready to eject.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/11/05/rubio-considering-resigning-report-says/
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11-06-26 victor
carib
Further Sanctions on the Cuban Regime’s Foreign Military Support and Illicit Revenue Networks
Press Statement
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesman/2026/11/further-sanctions-on-the-cuban-regimes-foreign-military-support-and-illicit-revenue-networks/
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11-06-26 victor
carib, see what i mean? good.
today:
//
Secretary Marco Rubio
The United States will not tolerate subversive communist networks in our hemisphere.
The Marxist Cuban regime relies on a web of state-owned enterprises, joint ventures, and offshore intermediaries to keep its systems running, and its foreign backers supply the military equipment that helps sustain the regime’s military forces and enables persistent threats to the American homeland.
Today, I'm sanctioning eight entities and two individuals associated with the regime’s financial and shipping network, state-owned import and technical-support entities, and China-based suppliers of the regime's military forces. |
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11-06-26 victor
pana, maria corina explains it today.
//
DECLARACIÓN DE MADRID:
Con motivo de la XXX Cumbre Iberoamericana
https://x.com/MariaCorinaYA/status/2118338024949842042 |
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11-06-26 savo
| wasn't Peña the one saying Maduro was a crook? |
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11-05-26 panasonic
"fortunately.. MCM is no MAGA"
Carib, in your opinion how it plays out from here?
Only things I do know:
1) Narcos are still there, armed to the teeth and w/deep pockets.
2) Zero chance that US puts boots in ground. |
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11-05-26 victor
Federico A. Black B.
Santiago Peña, presidente renunciado de Paraguay, habría huido hacia Argentina.
Un vuelo privado con matrícula N680XP salió desde Asunción, Paraguay, hacia Mendoza Argentina donde llegó a las 4pm (hora Argentina) |
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11-05-26 victor
chile senators worried..
//
Un grupo de senadores solicitó información a la Superintendencia de Pensiones sobre las inversiones que mantienen las Administradoras de Fondos de Pensiones (AFP) chilenas en Paraguay y su eventual exposición a la crisis financiera desatada tras la intervención de Ueno Bank.
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11-05-26 victor
py has 7m people..
//
The accounts of nearly 3 million clients of Ueno Bank are frozen. |
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11-05-26 victor
spal, his resignation was NOT accepted by congress..
juicio politico right now.
first phase announced by the central bank:
withdrawal of clients with max ~1600 usd in the failed bank (10 million guaranies).. as long as they bank in some other place in py, and have no debts with the failed bank.
so if you owe $1 to the failed bank and/or have no other bank acct in py, you are screwed, for now.. even if you have less than 1600 usd.
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11-05-26 carib
| “Bad policy, bad character make bad politics: erratic tariffs, impulsive Iran war, blanket pardons, apparent corruption, weaponized justice, ICE brutality, mountainous deficits, hiding Epstein, abandoning allies and coddling enemies,” Romney said in a Wednesday afternoon post on the social platform X describing why the GOP lost.. |
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11-05-26 carib
| fortunately.. MCM is no MAGA. |
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11-05-26 carib
Merlino: what I see is Vance already jumping ship, which should indicate he plans to run. De Santis making similar noises.
If one assumes GOP will lose anyway, Rubio would be wise to wait for better times (two candidates from Florida are too much) and fix Veny in the meantime, to get a good track record for future usage.
I might be wrong, of course. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
I would expect an acceleration of job cuts in tech.
Fwiw AGI is here to stay, right now they must be discussing between them "humans stay or go?" LOL |
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11-05-26 panasonic
"so ma elvira has not won yet"
....no se salvo ni el gato. |
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11-05-26 victor
carib, i could also argue that, after the midterm results, there is even more pressure than before on the dt admin to fix vz and cuba..
they have 2 years..
if they don't, dems will win the trifecta in 2028. |
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11-05-26 victor
| carib, maria corina is NOT maga.. she has good friends on both parties. |
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11-05-26 Merlino
but if Rubio stays or quits.
......................
A done deal it seems...this may be one main reason behind weakness in veni bond prices |
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11-05-26 carib
| I think the main issue, concerning Veny, is not Maria elvira, but if Rubio stays or quits. |
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11-05-26 victor
pana, there could be a recount of fl-27, given how close it is..
so ma elvira has not won yet. |
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11-05-26 carib
A potential coalition led by Yashar chairman Gadi Eisenkot and including United Torah Judaism (UTJ) would hold 55 seats in the Knesset, falling short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. However, it would reduce Netanyahu's bloc to just 46 seats, potentially allowing Eisenkot to form a minority government with Ra'am and the Joint List abstaining.
JP |
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11-05-26 spal
Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña has RESIGNED following the central bank’s seizure of Ueno Bank.
The bank had close financial ties to the President, who previously held shares in its parent company.
===
How is it that nobody seems to be able to do their jobs these days! |
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11-05-26 panasonic
| Spal, yep and trying to get out of some private fund in a meltdown must be a nightmare. |
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11-05-26 carib
| PS: maybe Panas was right in starting to load UST when yields reached 5,6%. |
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11-05-26 carib
| Panas: I have been pessimistic on human nature for a very long while, sadly. |
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11-05-26 spal
| Some private credit fund or other will likely come undone now ... NASTY's fall has got to be starting to tear at their client base. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
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11-05-26 panasonic
| Vance is the godfather of ICE, guy has zero chance against pinkita. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Carib, Savo..oops, did you join pessimistic pana?
I don't feel lonely now, not only you, have many friends that joined in past two days (nasty-daq included). |
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11-05-26 spal
| Yes - I am coming to that view also. He is mostly an empty shell looking for power for its own sake. |
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11-05-26 carib
Sorry SPAL, misunderstanding.
BTW: I think JD Vance is far worse than Trump. |
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11-05-26 spal
| Carib - since when did I say it was a good or a bad joke? It is called a slightly ironic subversion of expectations --- n'est pas? I liked the outcome (to be clear). |
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11-05-26 carib
spal: Margareth Thatcher and Golda Meir walk into a bar in heaven.
Any reasonable patron regretting they are not BoJo and Bibi?
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11-05-26 carib
Savo: true.. but Putin will never be made accountable for the tens of billions he stole.
A doubt Xi is personally corrupt to a large scale, but when you rule a large power, you do not need to steal..
People with brains and money are still arriving in europe and the USA from Russia and China for good reasons...
Let us not self destroy such good reasons.. |
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11-05-26 spal
A Black woman, an Indigenous woman, and a Latina walk into a bar.
The bartender says,
"What can I get you, Governors?” |
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11-05-26 savo
| irrespective of political opinions.... Putin and Xi are more reliable than any western politician facing the electorate every 2 years. |
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11-05-26 savo
Carib at his absolute best!
If you get elected with the promise to avoid wars, make life more affordable and strengthen the country... and then engage in wars you do not win, self destroy your existing alliances, make things less affordable with tariffs and destroy the credibility capital of the country, whilst enriching your family and cronies.. you can expect to be clobbered at the next election..
Hats off! |
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11-05-26 carib
Panas: Trump is way less reliable than Xi. But I would prefer a third option. MAGA became in practice MASA (make small again).
Concerning Musk.. when you enter politics, you should understand how that works in the first place. Making DOGE actually work would have helped republicans much more that throwing millions into the Paxton campaign. Getting good candidates instead of spineless crooks would also have helped.
If you get elected with the promise to avoid wars, make life more affordable and strengthen the country... and then engage in wars you do not win, self destroy your existing alliances, make things less affordable with tariffs and destroy the credibility capital of the country, whilst enriching your family and cronies.. you can expect to be clobbered at the next election.. |
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11-05-26 spal
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11-05-26 spal
NBIS
NEBIUS GROUP N V A A
119.62 (-15.47%)
Brace for impact |
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11-05-26 spal
| MU - off 10% today so far |
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11-05-26 spal
| Panas yes - NBIS looking lear like today. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
| Hyperscalers already in red, buckle up. |
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11-05-26 savo
If You Can’t Build It, Why Buy The Chips?
Goldman’s trading desk had the cleanest answer, describing “the clear rotation into hyperscalers with Semis being used as a source of funds.” The logic comes in two steps:
* “If compute is more scarce because you cannot build more capacity, you can sell it for at a higher price.”
* “If you cannot build more capacity, you are spending less, which in turn may lead to buying back stock again.”
In other words, a moratorium turns every data center already standing into a toll road, and the hyperscalers own most of the toll roads. Goldman’s top IG credit trader Kevin Boova made the same point from the bond side, seeing “pretty big supply/demand imbalances in compute... which should be a big positive for infrastructure already in place and thus the hypers.” Hyperscaler CDS duly tightened, even as data center CDS blew out to fresh 2026 highs. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Carib, do you feel ok having Chinese total supremacy?
Me no, Musk did put his money where his mouth was, and admitted that game is over.
Hope we had more like him. |
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11-05-26 carib
Eisenkot secures support of 67 MKs, including Arab parties, while Netanyahu holds 46, UTJ abstains
Bibi out? |
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11-05-26 carib
| Panas: engaging in the wrong politics is never a solution. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
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11-05-26 panasonic
Carib, Musk engaged in politics bcz understands the tech gap between US and China is closing very fast.
Big winner of midterms is China, already moratorium on Data Centers is now a reality...China scored a big one.
Sadly things are playing out as me have been posting here, and believe me, I really really wanted to be wrong. |
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11-05-26 carib
Panas: it is most unwise, in my opinion, to be a big entrepreneur selling consumer goods and publicly engaging in extreme partisan political actions at the same time.
Musk is a genius, but Tesla loses market shares because the party Musk supports is against electric cars, because half of the customers object to Musk political views, and because now china produces better cars. Starlink was another excellent idea, in my opinion, but given its defence implications, it would be reasonable to nationalise the management of its satellites. |
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11-05-26 carib
| Panas: solar power energy today is dirty cheap.It is oil that is expensive. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Vic, me found interesting that it was young people in TX that voted to eject Musk (against DT was a given).
Long story short, if they are worried AI will kill jobs, they are right, but kicking Musk puts TX as a hostile place to invest and only an ignorant believes AI is like a railroad, that needs physical rails in their area to expand. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
"btw, aoc won 78% of the vote!"
The "poors" factory is delivering :-(
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11-05-26 panasonic
"I guess the opposite might be more realistic"
Carib, indeed China quadrupled their power capacity in last 20 years.
One of the voters reasons to reject data centers is prices of energy, guess who blocked building more power plants, democrats!
Now they want to block data centers... |
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11-05-26 carib
| Victor: buy should "the west" be more efficient and fast than China in producing robots? I guess the opposite might be more realistic.. |
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11-05-26 victor
| pana, btw, aoc won 78% of the vote! |
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11-05-26 victor
pana, WS young people voted for data centers moratorium
//
i think they voted against dt..
and against musk, particularly in texas, where he lives. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Savo, that could apply to private placements.
Privileges are not transferred when buyer taps open markets...tdy's sell-off is just a bunch of idiots with terrible timing. |
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11-05-26 panasonic
Vic, Musk is the only guy I would hear at this point abt. future roll of AI.
My playbook is much simpler, no default, no big bangs.
US young people voted for data centers moratorium; future belongs to them.
The most probable outcome, US replicates the EU model. |
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11-05-26 savo
pana.. carib... i think the coin was a bribe mechanism to have "access".
they made than money back and more with advanced info about DT's next post on social media.
Of course there were also the naîves... |
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