09-15-26 spal
Schpal is it not time to sell the tankers ??
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Pilly - my strong suit is timing entry - for selling I generally just trail stops.
I think tightness will continue and some extraordinary results will be reported, but you are right that this is cyclical and a more fragile investment at these levels. |
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09-15-26 spal
Saab to plead guilty, best way to get reduced sentence and fast pass to house arrest.
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Panas are you advising ...
;)) |
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09-14-26 panasonic
| Carib, and gains on RE investments? |
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09-14-26 carib
| OFAC updating sanctions on PDVsa/CITGO, today. |
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09-14-26 carib
| Panas: 0 tax on foreign source income, including cap gains (but excluding pensions and direct income from tax havens), 20% tax on local source professional income.For managers of big corps, university professors, or directors of start-ups. |
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09-14-26 panasonic
Saab to plead guilty, best way to get reduced sentence and fast pass to house arrest.
https://apnews.com/article/maduro-
alex-saab-guilty-plea-ac402258f242b2cc6f43684be3680713 |
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09-14-26 panasonic
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09-14-26 carib
With square meter prices surpassing €25,000 and projects signed by renowned designers, the Cascais and Estoril region is setting new records in the European market
No shortage of Brasileiros with money seeking security and low taxation.. |
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09-14-26 carib
| Panas: but, if they actually make the IFICI+ tax solution actually work, prices might well keep moving up. |
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09-14-26 panasonic
Carib, yes.
Portugal became a mystery agree, my take is that houses are following same dynamics as Dutch tulips, last ones to arrive will get burned. |
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09-14-26 carib
| Panas: for example Miami and Palm Beach for people comming from NY and even Connecticut. Portugal in becoming a mystery for me, because prime prices are now outlandish.. but still moving up |
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09-14-26 pillz
Oil Tankers Earn $1 Million a Day as War Leaves Ship Shortage
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Schpal is it not time to sell the tankers ?? |
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09-14-26 panasonic
"should not RE prices fall"
I think prices are falling in many middle-class areas, in affluent areas deals are cash.
Migration from tax hells to tax friendly also a factor. |
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09-14-26 pillz
Oil Tankers Earn $1 Million a Day as War Leaves Ship Shortage
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-14/oil-tankers-earn-1-million-a-day-as-war-leaves-ship-shortage?srnd=homepage-europe |
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09-14-26 carib
| Panas: that is a clever observation indeed. But, ancillary question.. if very few can now buy, should not RE prices fall? |
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09-14-26 panasonic
Carib, that is not the scenario that generates extra money to spend.
I'm thinking of those having a house with 3% mortgage ready to upgrade for a bigger one, they can't at current rates so they spend in stuff, adding pressure on inflation.
People without a house are "victims" of it, don't think they are a significant source of inflation. |
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09-14-26 carib
| "For Iran, this is a chess game. They plan what comes next. They don't push all their buttons at the same time out of panic," |
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09-14-26 carib
| Panas: but, if you do not buy RE.. you rent.. and your money goes to the landlord, rather than the bank. In either case, little left for other spending, I guess.. |
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09-14-26 panasonic
"mortgage is the way up the property ladder"
...and a vehicle to save money, my initial point was that high rates make middle class spend in other stuff, and probably cause of why inflation won't abate any time soon. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Yes of course - not forgetting that I deduct a portion of the building's value against my taxes and in your case if it went up 30% and you borrowed 80% of the original investment your return on equity would have been 150%. So - this is what the borrowing is for in a calculated, risk taking sense. |
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09-14-26 carib
| Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed regional developments with US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah on Monday, Saudi state media said, amid escalating hostilities with Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis. |
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09-14-26 carib
Spal: actually, the rate went lower from 1,52% to 1% a few years later.. but in the meantime the RE values went up 30%..
What I mainly look at.. is the ratio between mortgage cost and renting cost. |
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09-14-26 carib
Panas: for people short of assets.. mortgage is the way up the property ladder, I guess.
For people with money.. you mortgage when the after tax cost is lower than your return on financial assets, I guess again.
When rear rates are low.. I prefer to issue bonds.
When they are high.. I am a buyer of bonds..
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09-14-26 spal
I only signed for a mortgage once in my life, 1,52% fixed rate.
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Such is the life of a Carib ... aka a "royal" colore. |
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09-14-26 spal
prices should come down.. or new construction slow..
Yes it happens, note that clever builders roll financial incentives into the price, so it is a melange rather than 2 separate considerations.
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09-14-26 spal
| roll in October at 6.5% - |
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09-14-26 spal
But buying a new place at 7+% would not be a good idea, IMHO. Either buy cash.. or rent, IMHO
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More difficult, but it can be done - I did one this year with 6.35% borrowed funds - would have been ok. Half of my property loans roll in April at 6.5% - rents have outstripped this. Timing does matter, location still matters more.
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09-14-26 spal
US has a divine right to spend what the country did not earn.
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No quite divine, but a prerogative called the Triffen Dillema. |
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09-14-26 spal
Why are all those loses not being recognised?
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It is called Hold to Maturity accounting. Without this many banks are instantly insolvent. |
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09-14-26 panasonic
Savo, so banks re-sell their mortgages and make a profit on the spread.
Many MBS buyers cover by shorting USTs.
When rates are going up, any home sold translates in a nice profit bcz MBS holder collects at par something that trades way under par.
Same applies to me as bondholder, I lock a rate, if rates go up the value of my bonds go down, if done properly helps me reduce my tax bill. |
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09-14-26 panasonic
Carib, indeed...that is how it works.
But usually, people in 40% bracket don't need a 7% mortgage (unless money is used to produce say 15% annual returns). |
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09-14-26 panasonic
"Sweden the centre did quite well"
Any Immigration policy changes or more of the same? |
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09-14-26 carib
PS: Actually, I checked current US mortgage (30Y) rates. surprisingly, you can still find below 7%.
Tax plays a role, if I am not mistaken. If you pay 40% income tax rate, and you can deduct mortgage interest in full, the actual net cost is just under 4%, close to inflation rate. But if you rent I guess you cannot deduct that, unless you are a company and use the house as an office.
But if you pay very low income tax rate... then I guess there is little you can deduct.. |
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09-14-26 carib
I only signed for a mortgage once in my life, 1,52% fixed rate.
I did not need the money, but thought the rate was a steal.
Old italians do not naturally seek mortgages: in the lira time interest rates were too high.. and people saved. They bought cash.
I agree the RE/mortgage thing is the key to have a stable centre.
My american daughter took a 3% 30Y mortgage, fixed.Now if she rents out that house the income would service the debt, and leave some tangible profit.
But buying a new place at 7+% would not be a good idea, IMHO. Either buy cash.. or rent, IMHO
If very few in the lower middle class can now afford a mortgage.. prices should come down.. or new construction slow..
SPAL would be the resident expert.. |
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09-14-26 carib
| Panas: actually, in Sweden the centre did quite well.. both my Liberal friends and the Centre party.. |
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09-14-26 savo
Do they think the world owes them a 3.5% 30 year mortgage
and why do US politicians believe the US has a divine right to spend what the country did not earn... borrow what it did not save... consume what it did not produce... run the biggest budget deficits in history... the biggest trade deficit in history (despite tariffs).. refinance the most humongous debt at negative rates ... under-report inflation...etc... |
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09-14-26 savo
pana... has a mortgage locked at 3%
what about the other side of the coin?
whose balance sheets are hiding all those 3% and lower mortgages at original value and not at market value?
Why are all those loses not being recognised?
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09-14-26 spal
Egypt is suffering the most acute state-level revenue destruction.
The $10B Revenue Drain: Egypt relies on the Suez Canal as its primary source of foreign hard currency. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi confirmed that Suez Canal receipts plummeted by over $9–10 billion as commercial container fleets diverted around Africa.
The Currency & Energy Double-Whammy: To keep domestic power plants running, Egypt was forced to buy high-priced liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined fuel on the spot market while its foreign currency inflows vanished. This has triggered severe Egyptian Pound devaluations, forced rollbacks on domestic bread/fuel subsidies, and pushed the country to the brink of sovereign debt default. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Do they think the world owes them a 3.5% 30 year mortgage or somehow not realize that this was a magic trick and has to be paid for. Oh well. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Yes ... interest rate gets to 7% and people are losing their minds. No sympathy. |
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09-14-26 pillz
| I bought my first apartment with an 7.75% fixed rate mortgage 50 years ago .. |
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09-14-26 spal
| I bought my first house with an 11% floating rate mortgage. Suck it up people. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Companies like TORM (TRMD), Scorpio (STNG), and Hafnia (HAFN) operate massive product tanker fleets (MRs and LR2s). Product tankers see their ton-mile rates expand much faster than crude carriers during a Red Sea diversion because Europe suffers immediate, localized refined product deficits. |
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