09-10-26 leopardo
| You buy K92 much better no premium no margins and leveraged investment on Gold |
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09-09-26 spal
Houthis are advancing in Al-Wazi'yah, Southwestern #Yemen
That puts them at about 40 miles from Bab Al-Mandab Strait!
Their leverage on the Red Sea could increase. |
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09-09-26 carib
Savo: I think you can buy Gold futures june 2032 (five years into the future) for 5320$ an ounce, or about 20% more expensive than current price of 4440$. if you invest 4440$ in UST bonds, by 2032 you end up more or less with the same 5300$ outcome.
If you expect gold to go up dramatically, I guess you can make loads of money with options, I suppose. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Savo - as you know I play risky equities but without leverage - so I am also tuned to the macro dynamic across the system. I see fragility ... you see more ... this is all that separates us. |
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09-09-26 savo
spal...i understand that dynamic...but my bet is that we are in a different world now and that well oiled dynamic will break and gold and silver ( and copper, etc..) will be the only refuge.
Let's see.. so far my precious metals portfolio is doing well within my expectations but not as well as i would have expected |
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09-09-26 savo
seems it is going to be death by inflation AND dead by financial crisis
gold should be at 50k.. yet... it isn't |
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09-09-26 spal
Staging:
Early Repression Phases:
Industrial commodities (oil, copper, fertilizer) consistently outperform gold because real economic demand and supply-chain bottlenecks force industrial prices upward long before monetary panic sets in.
Late-Stage Repression: Gold catches up and surges when real yields turn deeply negative or when trust in paper sovereign debt breaks down completely.
We are not near late stage. But it is fun to jibber this way and makes good headlines. |
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09-09-26 spal
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09-09-26 spal
Savo - you do you the following us the dynamic I am trading on:
When central banks allow nominal bond yields to adjust upward (even if lagging true inflation), paper bonds yield a positive nominal payout. That acts as a temporary brake on gold.
Conversely, energy and metals perform based on physical tightness, generating strong cash flows through commodity producers regardless of yield movements.
We are under a regime known as financial repression - get long commodity linked plays. |
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09-09-26 savo
seems it is going to be death by inflation AND dead by financial crisis
gold should be at 50k.. yet... it isn't |
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09-09-26 carib
Treasury yields are rising to new highs after investors expressed disappointment that the Treasury Department's expanded bond buyback program isn't larger.
The 10-year yield approached 4.85%, its highest level since 2023, after Treasury said it would buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt at its Thursday buyback operation. Some expected a larger buyback, which could have calmed yields down a bit more.
WSJ |
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09-09-26 spal
| NAT provides asymmetric mid-size upside. Its 100% Suezmax fleet is uniquely tailored to Caribbean, US Gulf, and West African routes that benefit directly from trade adjustments. |
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09-09-26 carib
| Not sure about AI trends, but in human students I (PISA scores) China is number 1 or number 2, globally. The USA is number 13 or 14. |
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09-09-26 spal
Impact on ASC: Avoiding the Suez Canal adds 10 to 14 sailing days per voyage. This absorbs global vessel capacity, effectively shrinking the net supply of available MR/chemical tankers and pushing spot rates higher across both Atlantic and Pacific basins.
With respect to dilutents ... Even if Ardmore’s specific vessels are not performing the US Gulf-to-Venezuela leg directly, every MR tanker pulled into dedicated short-haul USG–Venezuela diluent runs reduces the available pool of MRs servicing US Gulf export routes to South America, West Africa, or Europe—raising spot rates across the entire Atlantic basin. |
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09-09-26 spal
Houthi targeting of commercial shipping forced long-haul clean product and chemical trade between Asia/Middle East and Europe to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
AKA the Houthi-Pokey
You put your right foot in, you take your right foot out, you put your right foot in and you shake it all about. You do the houthi pokey and you turn yourself around. That’s what it’s all about. |
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09-09-26 spal
PPIH
PERMA-PIPE INTL HLDG
31.24 (+7.24%) |
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09-09-26 spal
ASC
ARDMORE SHIPPING COR
Adding
Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC) operates in a sweet spot that bridges standard clean petroleum products (CPP) and liquid chemical shipping.
Because their fleet consists primarily of MR product tankers and IMO 2/3 coated chemical tankers (approx. 25k to 50k dwt), they benefit directly from the same geopolitically driven tonne-mile expansion lifting broader product tankers, while capturing premium spot rates in specialized chemical trades. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Holding large position in TRMD ... I think it should hold fairly well through the dividend distribution tomorrow (although these are notorious for getting oversold), This div is very large. Pricing power is holding for the entire fleet - probably improving from historic high levels and I think this situation holds for 6-12 months ... |
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09-09-26 spal
| Slow adding more NAT ... suezmax fleet to pull crude into the med and around africa ... |
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09-09-26 spal
| ALVOF - USD 9 might be fair value for year end ... certainly pushing towards it now. |
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09-09-26 spal
| ALVOF ... heavy and adding |
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09-09-26 spal
| PPIH ... pipes in the Middle East and for Data Center cooling ... minor add ... developing ... no rush, but on track. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Got out without a hitch - thanks Panas! |
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09-09-26 panasonic
"Heathrow seems ok today"
Bon voyage! |
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09-09-26 panasonic
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US faces dire consequences if it loses out in the AI race with China"
Took them 3 years to understand what Musk said since day one :-( |
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09-09-26 carib
IMHO Veny should restructure into sort of new Brady bonds, secured by oil revenues from the US.25 years duration
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09-09-26 spal
| Cash (dated) Brent is now trading almost $108 so physical markets are much tighter than futures exchange screens are showing. Recap of Iran situation so far this week |
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09-09-26 victor
savo, speaking of..
Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US faces dire consequences if it loses out in the AI race with China, highlighting the angst in Washington about its rival's tech advances.
"There is no day after tomorrow if China wins at this," Bessent said at a Breitbart News event in Washington on Tuesday, indicating also that the US's large defense budget would fail to protect the nation. "If they were to pull away from us on AI, then nothing else would matter."
The comments appear aimed at some voices in the US upset that large data center projects are getting built in their backyards. Late last month, President Donald Trump warned that a growing public backlash to the projects in the US poses an economic threat and risks giving China the upper hand in AI.
In China, many new projects are going up far from big cities in less populated regions in the north and northwest.
Bessent's remarks also highlight worries in the US about open-weight Chinese models that are nearly as powerful as American versions at a fraction of the cost for the user. That's happening even though the US has tried to deny China access to its most advanced tech.
Also on Tuesday, US government agencies said Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and other China-based AI companies "extracted billions of tokens across millions of exchanges/requests from US frontier AI models," including variants of Anthropic PBC's Claude, Alphabet Inc.'s Gemini and SpaceXAI's Grok since at least late 2024.
Tokens are units of data processed by models during training and inference. They enable prediction, generation and reasoning.
The actions were potentially taken "with Chinese government awareness," the Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Security Agency and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a statement.
Reuters has reported that the US and China were preparing to discuss AI safety risks in mid-September, talks that if they happened would come just before Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump in Washington on Sept. 24.
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09-09-26 victor
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09-09-26 spal
CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The U.S. warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.
Boom, boom, boom, boom
I want you in my room
Let's spend the night together
From now until forever
Boom, boom, boom, boom
Vengaboys |
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09-09-26 spal
China dropped oil buying 41% February to July. They’ve been quietly buying oil cargoes through August. Now they are going to bid up every tanker cargo globally until November
Boss move by Chickitty China |
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09-09-26 spal
| Chinese Oil Demand Unexpectedly Soars, Sending Shanghai Crude Above $100, With Brent Prices Set To Follow |
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09-09-26 spal
| Meanwhile, refined products pricing has increased much more than crude oil pricing, increasing the crack spread for refiners, allowing freight costs to rise to levels that would normally be unacceptable to refiners. |
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09-09-26 spal
Meanwhile, refined products pricing has increased much more than crude oil pricing, increasing the crack spread for refiners, allowing freight costs to rise to levels that would normally be unacceptable to refiners.
TRMD
Note it goes ex-div in Europe today and USA tomorrow ($2.40). |
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09-09-26 spal
The Baltic Exchange’s global suezmax index is 2.7 times its level one year ago and the aframax index is two times higher. The global VLCC index is 7.1 times higher.
Still holding tanker positions - adding
Still holding oil & LNG infra positions - indeed adding |
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09-09-26 spal
https://x.com/gmjournalist/status/2097470273888928027?s=46
Excellent update on tanker rates.
Heathrow seems ok today - gracias a Dios |
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09-09-26 savo
exactly victor..only a fool can do the bidding on an economy ignorant like dt.
Have you hear the moronic reverence with which he talks to or about dt?
yes sir.. of course sir... you are right sir... |
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09-09-26 leopardo
Very bonds will continue climbing.
Smoothly |
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09-09-26 victor
savo, the fool disguised as Treasury secretary not taken seriously by the market.
//
according to dt, all these guys that work for him simply do his bidding..
so it's not a really reflection on this guy, but on dt himself. |
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09-09-26 victor
| vzla bonds continue going up.. interesting. |
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