02-18-26 savo
according to AI... the "architecture" is almost in place to start debt negotiations. Odd the legion of anals has not put the pieces together.
1. The Current "License" Landscape
While there is no single "Restructuring General License" yet, recent OFAC actions provide the building blocks:
* General License 49 (Feb 13, 2026): This is the most significant "restructuring-adjacent" move. It authorizes U.S. persons to negotiate and sign "contingent contracts" for new investments. While it doesn't allow the execution of these deals yet, it creates the legal space for formal talks to begin.
* General License 5U (Feb 2, 2026): OFAC extended the protection of CITGO from creditors holding the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bonds until March 20, 2026. This "delay" is widely seen as a placeholder while the U.S. coordinates with the new Venezuelan acting administration (the Rodríguez administration).
* General Licenses 46A & 48: These focus on reopening oil trade and upstream services. By allowing PDVSA to generate cash flow again, the U.S. is effectively building the "repayment capacity" that is a prerequisite for any restructuring.
2. Creditor Activity & Rumors
The markets are pricing in an imminent move. Venezuelan and PDVSA bonds have rallied significantly, trading in the 40–45 cent range (up from single digits).
* Financial Advisers Hired: On February 11, 2026, the Venezuela Creditor Committee (including Fidelity and Greylock) officially selected Houlihan Lokey as its financial adviser. This is the clearest signal that creditors expect a license to negotiate within months, if not weeks.
* The "Rodríguez Administration" Factor: Rumors suggest that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is coordinating with the IMF and World Bank to fast-track Venezuela’s re-entry into global markets. A specific license allowing the new Venezuelan government to issue new debt to replace the old defaulted bonds is reportedly under active discussion in Washington.
Key Obstacles Remaining
Despite the optimism, two major hurdles are preventing the "Final License":
* The "China/Russia" Issue: A significant portion of PDVSA’s debt is owed to China and Russia. Rumors indicate the U.S. is hesitant to issue a broad restructuring license until they can ensure that U.S. bondholders aren't being used to "bail out" Chinese oil-for-debt deals.
* Legal Recognition: Restructuring requires a government that can legally bind the Republic. While the U.S. recognizes the acting administration, the full legal "handover" of PDVSA assets is still being finalized in the courts.
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02-18-26 spal
Rackspace Technology Shares Skyrocket on Partnership With Palantir
11:56 AM CST, February 18, 2026Updated 1 hour ago, February 18, 2026 at 11:56 AM CST
Rackspace Technology shares surged 263% after the company announced a partnership with Palantir Technologies focusing on Palantir's Foundry and Artificial Intelligence Platform. |
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02-18-26 spal
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02-18-26 spal
| Carib ... did you buy RTX? |
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02-18-26 spal
SBRA
SABRA HEALTH CARE RE REIT
Watching |
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02-18-26 carib
a kind of spal-like small stock.. (+192% today)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RXT/ |
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02-18-26 leopardo
Ok thank you .
So we can discuss afterwards |
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02-18-26 carib
| Leo: I can mail it to you |
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02-18-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
6.06 (+2.02%)
Trend remains friendly
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02-18-26 leopardo
| Carib is it worth reading? |
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02-18-26 spal
PLD
PROLOGIS INC REIT
Initial position - testing if it is overbought ... or shallow correction. |
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02-18-26 panasonic
| Tks Carib, didn't make any move yet, flirting with the idea yet not 100% convinced. |
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02-18-26 savo
carib... if one calculates the price over total claim.. the effective price of all pdvsa bonds is practically identical for all bonds. A bit lower the 6% 22 which is not in the index.
Meaning the market treat accrued and principal equally. Which makes sense given recent restructurings.
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02-18-26 carib
| Any colores got the recent BofA paper on veny/PDV relative values? |
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02-18-26 carib
| USS Geral Ford passed Gibraltar today. |
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02-18-26 spal
| Senior Housing + health related -data center and select industrial REITS rising rapidly |
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02-18-26 spal
Mean tailwind ... sorry was playing music too loudly ...
;) |
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02-18-26 spal
FRO
FRONTLINE PLC
33.40 (+5.96%)
Monitoring this one ... heavy DHT ... geopolitical uncertainty is a headwind ... chaos is a colores biz ...
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02-18-26 spal
TER
TERADYNE INC
Is clearly ripping along |
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02-18-26 spal
FANUY
FANUC CORP ADR ADR
Initial position - watching.
Fanuc compares favorably but isn't unequivocally better. Among the "Big 4" (Fanuc, Yaskawa, ABB, KUKA), Fanuc leads in precision, speed, and global CNC share (50%), with stronger recent robotics growth and pure-play exposure (38-45% of revenues).
Yaskawa excels in welding and motion control but grew slower recently; ABB offers user-friendliness and cobots but broader diversification (only 11% robotics); KUKA handles heavy payloads but lags in AI adaptation.
Challengers like Universal Robots (cobots) or emerging Chinese firms offer cost advantages, but Fanuc's reliability and ecosystem make it a strong choice for high-precision needs. For pure robotics upside, Fanuc edges out peers; for diversified plays, ABB or Yaskawa could appeal if recovery broadens.
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02-18-26 carib
PDVSA 6 22
29.25
-
30.000
PDVSA 9 21
38.90
-
39.500
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02-18-26 pillz
| Pana in Stuttgart it is BID 29 ASK 30.4 |
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02-18-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
·
14h
VLCC Bonanza continues ! Huge $DHT charter:
In another move up for the rampant VLCC market, a 14-year-old DHT Holdings tanker has been fixed for a year at a robust $90,000 a day, tanker market sources said on Tuesday. |
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02-18-26 spal
| Have large DHT position ... will probably trade some FRO |
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02-18-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
·
1h
VLCC spot is 🔥🔥, with TD3C jumping 10% yesterday to $138,000.
Record after record after record …
$BWET $FRO $ECO $DHT |
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02-18-26 carib
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02-18-26 spal
| For that reason, we compile a Real Time CPI using the Zillow Home Price Index (ZVHI) and Zillow Rent Index (ZORI) as a substitute for the BLS' indexes for primary rent and owner's equivalent rent. This adjusted CPI shows that inflation has averaged 2.0% since late 2023. While the Shelter component in CPI has moderated in recent months, it remained the most significant upside contributor in January, responsible for 39% of the monthly increase and 45% of the annual increase in the CPI index. |
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02-17-26 panasonic
Valero direct beneficiary of Veni oil
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/valero-ceo-grabs-billion-dollar-venezuela-oil-advantage |
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02-17-26 victor
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02-17-26 panasonic
| The "isin" corrector typo |
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02-17-26 panasonic
| Savo, pls do you have the itinerary of '22 new? |
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02-17-26 panasonic
| Carib, I was looking at it, reduces risk and some money back to pana. |
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02-17-26 savo
pana/carib.. how do you do the calculation?
the 22 old has 110% more interest than the 22 new...but the price is only 45% higher.
seems to me that the market prices each unit of pdi of the 22 old lower. |
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02-17-26 carib
Panas: sell PDVsa 2022 12,75% and buy PDVsa 2026 6%, then
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02-17-26 panasonic
Vic, EU left with tough decisions.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/15/europe/germany-britain-defense-chiefs-rearm-intl-hnk-ml |
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02-17-26 panasonic
| Difference in price between Pdvsa 21 & 22 suggests accrued interest will be included in any restructuring...I would not take any chances and pocket difference. |
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02-17-26 panasonic
| Regional banks will be under huge stress. |
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02-17-26 savo
and that is the tip of the iceberg...
death by inflation or death by financial crisis |
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02-17-26 spal
Real Estate
Commercial
Lenders to Commercial Real Estate Owners: Pay Up Now
The delinquency rate for office building owners jumped to a record high last month
By
Peter Grant
Follow
Feb. 17, 2026 5:30 am ET
Lenders to commercial real estate owners are reaching the breaking point, calling in tens of billions of dollars of troubled loans.
Refinancing property debt has become difficult since interest rates started to soar in 2022. Many lenders initially extended maturing loans they made when borrowing costs were far lower, hoping that either interest rates would fall or that cash flows would grow. It is a strategy known as “extend and pretend.”
Now, many lenders have stopped pretending, and the default rate is surging. The delinquency rate for office loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities climbed to a record 12.34% in January, the highest level since Trepp began tracking in 2000.
The end of this forbearance reflects how lenders have made two determinations. For one, they are betting that mortgage rates aren’t going back to the historic low levels seen during the pandemic.
Lenders, to office owners in particular, are also concluding that the decline in property values and cash flow aren’t simply a response to the economic cycle. Rather, creditors increasingly believe that structural changes around the workplace and hybrid work have permanently reduced demand for most office space.
The shift comes as the volume of distressed commercial real estate debt has climbed to levels not seen since the aftermath of the 2008-09 financial crisis.
More than half of the roughly $100 billion of commercial real-estate loans packaged into securities and coming due this year are unlikely to repay at maturity, according to a January report by Morningstar DBRS. That compares with a maturity payoff rate of about 75% in 2024 and 2025 and more than 80% in 2023, the firm said.
Some lenders will ultimately modify and repay these loans. But a growing number are headed toward foreclosure or liquidation.
One such case of a problem loan is the $515 million mortgage on the upper portion of the former New York Times headquarters building in Midtown Manhattan. The owner, Brookfield Asset Management, has extended the loan five times since 2020.
The debt was transferred to a special servicer late last year after passing its maturity date without repayment and the property prepares to lose one of its largest tenants.
“We are taking the first step in opening a structured good-faith dialogue with our lenders,” a Brookfield spokesman said.
The effects of these stalled loans extend beyond lenders and owners. Properties caught in limbo often go without the capital needed for maintenance, upgrades and leasing, weighing on tenants and surrounding neighborhoods.
Many downtowns—including those of St. Louis, Portland, Ore., San Diego and Dallas—are also struggling as so-called zombie office buildings drag on surrounding areas.
“I don’t think we’re through it at all,” said Alex Killick, a senior managing director at CW Asset Management, a firm that works with troubled property debt. “There’s plenty more to come.”
Close to $25 billion of CMBS loans are now past maturity without being paid off, liquidated or formally extended, according to Trepp. That is up from virtually none before the pandemic.
“The last time we saw the volume of unresolved matured loans this high was in the first half of 2013,” said Stephen Buschbom, Trepp’s head of applied research and analytics.
Outstanding commercial real estate debt in the U.S. totals close to $5 trillion, with banks and thrifts holding the largest share, about 36%, according to Trepp. The most visible stress so far has emerged in the CMBS market, which accounts for roughly 15% of outstanding debt.
For loans originated between 2019 and 2021, the gap between expiring interest rates and the rates available in today’s CMBS market can exceed 3 percentage points in some cases—a difference that many borrowers simply can’t absorb.
“Borrowers are more willing to walk away from the property,” said Rachel Sill, a senior vice president at Morningstar DBRS.
Not all the news is negative. Some property types, including industrial buildings and grocery-anchored retail centers, continue to perform well, benefiting from steadier demand and more resilient cash flows.
Capital markets also remain active. Total issuance of CMBS reached roughly $125.6 billion in 2025, up about 21% from the prior year and the highest annual volume since before the financial crisis.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
What does the high delinquency rate for office building owners indicate to you about the broader economy? Join the conversation below.
Still, signs of strain are also emerging in parts of the banking system. While the largest money-center banks haven’t reported big problems, pressure is building on regional lenders that were aggressive commercial real estate lenders during the last cycle.
“They are entering the peak of distress right now,” said Ryan Alfred, chief executive of Atrium Data, which tracks the banking industry.
Bank OZK is an Arkansas-based lender closely watched for its exposure to commercial real estate. Among its troubled credits is more than $156 million it has advanced on a construction loan on an office and residential project in Cambridge, Mass. With the 422,000-square-foot office portion largely vacant, the bank is moving to seize the property if the borrower can’t recapitalize. |
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02-17-26 panasonic
| ZIM being bought by Hapag, subject to approval. |
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02-17-26 panasonic
| Carib, 100% that is the core colores life. |
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02-17-26 carib
| I guess it confirms the point that operating in a tax neutral environment helps taking decisions not influenced by tax issues. |
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02-17-26 spal
What I don't like abt. rotations is ST capital gains, not easy to balance profits vs tax bill.
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Interesting and important point. I am sure this effects the timing and pace of the rotations also. I pay little attention as my accounts are tax free (until withdrawal of the money), but it is valid and I see why it does not favor some (or is harder to manage). |
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02-17-26 panasonic
Spal, indeed the massive mag7 Capex in AI practically deleted their 2026 FCF.
What I don't like abt. rotations is ST capital gains, not easy to balance profits vs tax bill. |
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02-17-26 spal
The S&P 500 is flat YTD, with tech down 6-7% since October 2025, underscoring the rotation.
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02-17-26 spal
This reflationary environment—fueled by fiscal spending, easing monetary policy, and manufacturing rebound (ISM Manufacturing PMI at 52.6 in early 2026)—is channeling capital into transport, industrials, energy, and materials.
Year-to-date (YTD) performance as of mid-February 2026 shows:
Energy: +21-23% (led by oil/gas amid demand recovery and geopolitical stability).
Materials: +16-17% (boosted by metals/mining for infrastructure/AI data centers).
Industrials: +12-13% (manufacturing cycle rebound, agentic AI adoption).
Transport: Embedded in industrials but strong (e.g., railroads +13%, logistics up).
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02-17-26 spal
Lest we forget:
OBB Bill (One Big Beautiful Bill Act): Enacted in July 2025, this legislation (Public Law 119-21) extends the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act's provisions, introduces new tax cuts (e.g., No Tax on Tips/Overtime, expanded deductions), and increases spending on defense, infrastructure, and immigration enforcement. It adds $3-5.5 trillion to deficits over a decade but boosts GDP by 0.9-1.2% in 2026 via tax refunds (peaking in H1 2026), reduced corporate burdens, and stimulus for manufacturing/industrials.
Boosts 2026.
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02-17-26 savo
Restore Britain... Restore Europe
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/end-multiculturalism-and-liberal-utopian-fantasy |
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02-17-26 spal
Since the beginning of 2026, Staples (up 15%), Industrials (up 12%), Energy (up 21%), and Materials (up 17%) have vastly outperformed the market as a whole, which is effectively flat YTD.
... those market sectors make up a relatively small portion of the overall index: Basic Materials (1.93%), Industrials (8.26%), Energy (3.11%), and Staples (5.76%). In other words, those 4 sectors combined (~19%) are smaller than the Technology sector alone (~29%). This also suggests that the relative outperformance of those sectors in recent weeks has more than offset the weakness in the Technology sector.
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02-17-26 spal
2026/02/16 18:27
Shipping stocks are quietly staging a comeback — and the underlying supply-demand setup suggests this cycle may have staying power. The Baltic Dry Index, a key benchmark for global shipping rates, has risen more than 60% from its 2023 lows, according to Baltic Exchange data, signaling a significant recovery in global shipping demand.
At the same time, global fleet growth remains constrained. The dry bulk vessel orderbook stands at roughly 7% of the existing fleet, near multi-decade lows, according to Clarksons Research data. That limited supply pipeline is colliding with resilient demand for transporting commodities like iron ore, coal, and grain.
This imbalance is already showing up in company earnings and cash flows.
Tight Vessel Supply Supports Freight Rates
Shipping companies like Star Bulk Carriers Corp (NASDAQ:SBLK) and Danaos Corp (NYSE:DAC) are generating strong free cash flow as elevated freight rates boost profitability. Danaos reported more than $1 billion in contracted backlog, providing multi-year revenue visibility, while Star Bulk has returned significant capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Since 2021, the company has returned approximately $1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
SBLK is up 22.87% and DAC has returned 13.44% to investors, YTD.
Container shipping companies, including ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd (NYSE:ZIM), remain highly sensitive to freight rate movements. Even modest improvements in rates can significantly increase earnings due to the sector's operating leverage.
ETFs like the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (NYSE:BDRY), up over 35% YTD, offers exposure to freight rate trends, while individual equities provide leverage to company-specific contract structures.
Structural Constraints Limit New Competition
Unlike previous cycles, ship supply cannot quickly increase. High shipbuilding costs, stricter environmental regulations, and limited shipyard capacity are slowing fleet expansion. Clarksons estimates global fleet growth will remain below 3% annually through 2027.
Meanwhile, global trade volumes continue expanding. The World Trade Organization expects merchandise trade growth to recover in 2026 after slowing in prior years.
Shipping stocks historically move early in economic cycles. With vessel supply constrained and freight demand stabilizing, the sector may already be signaling a shift that broader markets haven't fully recognized yet.
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"signaling a shift that broader markets haven't fully recognized yet"
Solution: become a Colore
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