03-10-26 savo
IRAN REJECTS TRUMP CLAIMS
Following NetanDracula's orders was fine until crude reached 100 ... had he doubled down it would have been the end of his presidency... Americans do not care about the Ayatollahs they care about gaz at the pump...
TACO means "let's get the hell out of here.. and then I see how I spin it"
in any case GOP will be swiped out at midterms... too many lies.
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03-10-26 spal
Spal, to keep leverage for negotiations vs hell gates wide open?
Or China trying to broker a ceasefire?
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Panas - yes - Iran has much greater leverage than anticipated - like it or not.
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03-10-26 panasonic
| Spal, at this side of the pond, that could work for Cuba, they have no friends left anyway. |
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03-10-26 panasonic
Spal, to keep leverage for negotiations vs hell gates wide open?
Or China trying to broker a ceasefire? |
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03-10-26 spal
Meanwhile back at the ranch ...
The 2026 game plan for Cuba—dubbed the "Friendly Takeover" replaces the failed policy of isolation with a model of "Infrastructure-Led Integration." The strategy centers on using a total fuel blockade to trigger a managed collapse of the Communist Party (PCC) while offering a lucrative "offramp" to the military conglomerate (GAESA).
The Timetable: 2026
Q1 (Current): The Squeeze. Leveraging the Venezuelan intervention, the U.S. enforces a "Resale License" regime. Only fuel destined for the private sector is permitted, starving the state grid and military transport.
Q2: The Inflection. As blackouts reach 20+ hours and the "existential water threat" (similar to the GCC crisis) hits Havana, the U.S. activates "Operation Vigilant Sentry"to manage migration while initiating public "Transition Authority" talks with military moderates.
*Q3: The HTA Model. The establishment of a Hybrid Transition Authority (HTA). A U.S.-Chartered Development Corporation takes "custody" of strategic assets (Mariel, Antonio Guiteras) under a derivative sovereign immunity shield, prepping them for privatization.
Q4: Dollarization & Exit. Formal internal dollarization is legalized to stabilize the currency.
The Result: Cuba becomes a *High-Pressure Economic Protectorate
managed by Washington's capital, secured by a reformed FAR, and governed by U.S. statutory mandates—effectively annexing the economy while avoiding the immigration and sovereign debt liabilities of 51st statehood.
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03-10-26 spal
| I guess they don't have to - to get a settlement? |
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03-10-26 spal
| Panas - I still don't understand why they haven't started hitting the desalination plants harder. |
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03-10-26 panasonic
Spal, imagine for a moment if the sentence was:
"IRGC: Any Arab or European country that doesn't expel the ambassadors of Israel and America from its soil will be nuked". |
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03-10-26 spal
IRAN REJECTS TRUMP CLAIMS OF WAR PROGRESS, WARNS REGIONAL OIL EXPORTS COULD HALT
Iran dismissed Donald Trump’s statements suggesting the war is nearing completion and warned that continued U.S.-Israeli attacks
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Taco no bueno |
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03-10-26 spal
IRGC: Any Arab or European country that expels the ambassadors of Israel and America from its soil will, starting tomorrow, have full authority and freedom to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Whoops |
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03-10-26 victor
"I don't think the question of talking with Americans or negotiation with the Americans once again would be on the table," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told PBS News Hour in an interview on Monday.
According to Araghchi, the US has soured the potential of future negotiations by repeatedly attacking in the middle of diplomatic talks - first last year in June, and then as the opening to Operation Epic Fury.
"This year, they tried to convince us that this time is different. They promised us that they don't have any intention to attack us," Araghchi said. "So I don't think talking with Americans anymore would be on our agenda anymore." |
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03-10-26 spal
He said the response from military officials was: “It’s more fun to sink them.
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Are they not juveniles? |
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03-09-26 savo
in the end... Trump couldn't find a Delcy in Iran... which makes her even more valuable than before and the psycho even less attractive.
Now with the government officially recognised and licenses in place for full oil and minerals production... the next thing should be us... I guess.
Incidentally... the press reports that after surgery.. Gonzalez Urrutia is working from home.
Anybody knows what that work might mean? The guy has absolutely no responsibility. |
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03-09-26 savo
pillz.. the future...
Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter (aka Mr. Gold) predicted that by March, silver would likely suffer a failure to deliver physical metal at COMEX. In other words, demand for physical silver will swamp the existing supply. The math is scary and simple, and Holter breaks it down, “The registered inventory at COMEX in silver is 86 million ounces. On the second day of March, there are already 52 million ounces of silver standing for delivery. That leaves 30 million to 35 million ounces unspoken for. . .. This looks dicey. If they have 52 million ounces standing for delivery now, where is it going to be at the end of the month? If silver fails to deliver, then what you are going to have in the gold market is buyers stepping up that normally would not even buy and ask for delivery. . .. The bottom line is if silver fails to deliver, gold will fail to deliver in 24 hours. Once that happens, then confidence breaks. . .. You are looking at two quadrillion dollars in derivatives in a global economy with $350 trillion in debt with an underlying $100 trillion annual GDP. The math does not work. I think silver, and I have said this for many years, silver will be the spark or the fuse that lights off gold, which then lights off the derivatives time bomb. Warren Buffett calls derivatives weapons of mass financial destruction.”
Mr. Gold thinks, “When the system resets, governments will start a money print fest that will touch off global hyperinflation. . .. The pure math of debt outstanding is that it cannot be repaid in current terms. It will be hyperinflation of the things we need and hyper-deflation of the things we already have. . .. How is somebody going to buy your house if the capital is not there? If the capital is not there, then the price is going to have to come down. . .. It is highly likely that silver will kick off the demise of the financial system.”
Mr. Gold thinks this kind of global debt will go bad fast. Holter warns, “When this thing cascades and collapses, you are either in place, or you are out of place. If you are out of place, you will not be able to repair your mistake. It will be a lifetime mistake to have not gotten ready. Let me just say there is a difference in being early and being wrong. In 2000 to 2005, if you were buying gold or you were buying silver, you were an idiot, a complete idiot, and people thought you walked around with a tin foil hat on. . .. Now, we are at the point where the best place to have invested your money since January 2000 would be in gold or silver. When Noah was running around building his ark, he looked wrong. He was not wrong–he was just early."
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/mr-gold-warns-system-reset-silver-lights-fuse-derivatives-time-bomb |
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03-09-26 pillz
"I think the war is very much complete, pretty much," Trump told CBS News. "They have no navy, no communications, they've got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones."
"If you look, they have nothing left. There's nothing left in a military sense," Trump added.
Trump would back killing Mojtaba Khamenei, US officials tell WSJ
Meanwhile, Trump told aides that he would back the killing of newly-ascended Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if he proves unwilling to agree to Washington's demands, current and former US officials said, according to the Wall Street Journal.
These demands would include ending Iran's nuclear development, the outlet noted, adding that the White House declined to comment on the matter.
However, Trump told the New York Post that he was "not happy" about Khamenei's ascension, after having called him "unacceptable."
Last week, Trump wrote on social media that he wanted a say in picking a new "great and acceptable" supreme leader after the Islamic regime offered its "unconditional surrender."
"I'm not going through this to end up with another Khamenei," Trump told Time magazine.
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03-09-26 pillz
| Trump is extolling the US military’s skill in the US-Israeli bombing campaign on Iran, to a room full of House Republicans. While describing how the US strikes took out a number of Iranian ships, he said he was dismayed that the ships weren’t captured because, “We could have used them.” He said the response from military officials was: “It’s more fun to sink them.” |
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03-09-26 savo
and what will macron do now? bring the carrier back?
that guy has a great capacity to be always out of the loop. |
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03-09-26 savo
| people do not want wars... why can't our leaders understand something so simple. |
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03-09-26 leopardo
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03-09-26 panasonic
Ukraine sending drone experts to the gulf states, positions are now more clear, who is with who.
China in hot water... |
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03-09-26 savo
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03-09-26 panasonic
| Stocks bouncing hard on DT saying war will be over very soon, Iran in the same page? |
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03-09-26 pillz
there's nothing to be afraid of! [Iran] has no Navy, we sunk all
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not true , they have a lot of small ships drone ... that tis the problem ..; |
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03-09-26 panasonic
Spal, also closed all my equity positions except energy and precious metals.
Drones flying all over middle east a huge challenge.
Most of my tech stuff bounced from tdy's lows, don't want to press my luck. |
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03-09-26 spal
| Of course the legendary Dynacom Tankers is still sending ships through the Strait. They are the only ones at the moment. You can do this if you are a private company. |
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03-09-26 spal
JUST IN: President Trump is demanding oil tankers SHOW SOME GUTS and go through the Strait of Hormuz
“These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some GUTS, there's nothing to be afraid of! [Iran] has no Navy, we sunk all
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LOL ... clearly the guy is unaware of how the insurance market works. |
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03-09-26 spal
*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaone
·
1h
*MACRON: SETTING UP SHIP-ESCORT MISSION TO REOPEN HORMUZ STRAIT |
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03-09-26 spal
| French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France was deploying several warships to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea and Middle East. The aircraft carrier Charles de Gualle and helicopter carrier LHD Tonnerre and frigate Courbet were spotted leaving Toulon naval base on the 6th will be joined by an additional helicopter carrier and frigates. |
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03-09-26 spal
China is also at fault here, a global recession will hit them hard as well, and they supported Iran in their lunatic project, crazy days!
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Seems clear now. |
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03-09-26 panasonic
Yes amateur, also Fatah missiles.
Bearded lunatics now have ways to inflict huge pain to oil producers they didn't have 4 years ago.
China is also at fault here, a global recession will hit them hard as well, and they supported Iran in their lunatic project, crazy days! |
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03-09-26 amateur
Pana, destroying drone factories is not easy but not impossible, with massive intelligence. Indispensable components can also be targeted.
Was Iran not supplying those to Russia? There migh reflex in the UKR war… |
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03-09-26 savo
yes for analyzing the future ..
yes... like everybody else... problem is nobody can "see" the future.. the only thing we can see is the past and the present... |
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03-09-26 panasonic
Spal, Iran will run out of misiles soon, but not so on drones.
Estimate is 80k drones, those are easy to produce and can cause a lot of damage.
Israel wanted to destroy those factories time ago, but auto-pen was to busy to read any intelligence reports.
Now, as you said, middle east will take a huge beat :-(( |
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03-09-26 spal
| My view is that this ... whatever it is ... will be over in 2 weeks by and large, but the Middle East will walk away considerably impaired. Israel will be Israel. |
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03-09-26 spal
Strains in the global oil market are becoming even more pronounced, with extreme backwardation setting in. Brent for May is now more than $9 a barrel more costly than the June contract.
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Thanks Pilly - last Thursday I went briefly almost to 100% cash. On Friday I rebalanced to 25% oil exposure and 75% cash.
I expect only to see oil related opportunities tomorrow in the main ... otherwise the open will show massive risk off ... for a while.
It is a chaos market ... this is our home.
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03-09-26 spal
The KOSPI trades like a penny stock.
Last five days:
-7.25%
+0.02%
+9.63%
-12.06%
-7.24%
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03-09-26 pillz
December WTI @75, almost 40 dollars below April…
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the name is backwardation ... |
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03-09-26 pillz
you are looking at the present.
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yes for analyzing the future .. |
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03-09-26 amateur
| December WTI @75, almost 40 dollars below April… |
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03-09-26 savo
pillz
you are not looking at the future...you are looking at the present. |
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03-09-26 pillz
| still my ideal position in short puts and calls on JNUG is still gold at 5200 |
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03-09-26 pillz
you are a seasoned investor... zoom out...
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I always look to the future, never on the past ... |
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03-09-26 pillz
| The dollar rose against Asian currencies and gold tumbled on concern the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer or even raise borrowing costs to prevent inflation. |
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03-09-26 pillz
Schpal =
Strains in the global oil market are becoming even more pronounced, with extreme backwardation setting in. Brent for May is now more than $9 a barrel more costly than the June contract. |
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03-09-26 pillz
The dollar, which notched its sharpest one-week rise in 15 months on the breakout of war last week, has been the most consistent safe-haven asset, as gold has faltered amid broad selling in anything that has lately made sharp gains.
"The dollar benefits from its twin status as a safe-haven and energy exporter," said Joe Capurso, Head of Foreign Exchange, International and Geoeconomics at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. |
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03-09-26 pillz
Dollar surges as Middle East war sends oil above $110 a barrel
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-surges-as-usiran-war-pushes-oil-past-100-a-barrel-4548648 |
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03-09-26 savo
his presidency is at stake.. if he TACOs he can spin it in any way he wants... americans are busy with their lives and will believe whatever he tells them ...in a few days the news cycle will be focused on something else...
if he presses forward and results do not come quickly he is done. |
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03-09-26 amateur
Is TACO still valid? Or will DT take the pain and keep pushing forward?
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03-09-26 savo
clearly Hegseth miscalculated... Iran was more prepared than he thought.
Trump may double down and go for total destruction of Iran or TACO and leave NetanDracula to sort out his mess. |
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03-09-26 savo
pillz..
you are a seasoned investor... zoom out...
gold ended 2025 at 4,339.. at the moment, in the middle of another US military fiasco... it is at 5,095.. that is 17% up... how is that bad?
silver.. ended 2025 at 71... today 83... up 16.9%.. how is that bad?
S&P YTD -1.73%.. how is that good?
Dow YTD -1.82%... how is that good?
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03-09-26 spal
In the first week of March, we’ve seen gold dip even as oil spiked. This typically happens when large funds are forced to liquidate "winners" (gold) to cover losses in "losers" (equities/SaaS debt). Inflationary forces will pull it back up again.
Meanwhile oil has detached from the rest of things for obvious reasons ... 6 sigma move up tomorrow. |
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03-09-26 amateur
| Oil up 20% and gold down? Something seems odd… |
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03-09-26 spal
| If they do ... there are cholera outbreaks in 3 days ... a massive, calamitous exodus of "biblical proportions" ... and a collapse of all GCC economies. |
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03-09-26 spal
n FX markets it really is the case of buy the dollar and nothing else.
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If the Iranians decide to knock out the desalination plants in the Gulf it is game over for the entire GCC ... this is what is at stake now.
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03-09-26 pillz
| The dollar is so strong today that even currencies of oil exporting nations such as Norway are weaker versus it, with the krone down 0.8% versus the greenback. In FX markets it really is the case of buy the dollar and nothing else. |
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03-09-26 pillz
US 30 46,585.80 -915.8 -1.93%
US 500 6,612.10 -127.9 -1.90%
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03-09-26 pillz
XAU/USD - Gold Spot US Dollar
Real-time
USD
5,042.27
-128.85
(-2.50%)
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03-09-26 pillz
backwardation means severe shortage
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I don't think so, backwardation , is the future prices are below cash price , soo, there is plenty of oil in the future .. |
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03-09-26 spal
| Sorry the March 12 bit was extraneous. |
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03-09-26 spal
| Iran is currently using "nuisance strikes" (like today's Bahrain hit) to show they can do it. The optimal order of battle suggests they are saving a "Total Blackout" of a major facility like Jubail as their final bargaining chip before the March 12 deadline. |
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03-09-26 spal
The Pressure for Settlement: "The Water-Exit Strategy"
Iran’s goal is to force the GCC states (UAE, Saudi, Qatar) to break from the U.S.-led "Operation Epic Fury." They are applying three types of pressure:
The "Sovereignty of Survival": By hitting water, Iran shifts the conflict from "defending the Gulf" to "defending our people's lives." This forces GCC leaders to demand a U.S. ceasefire to protect their own domestic legitimacy.
The "Expatriate Flight": Without water, the global labor force (which makes up 80%+ of the UAE/Qatar population) will leave permanently. This would destroy the region's economy for decades, not just years.
The "Precedent" Shield: By claiming the U.S. hit their Qeshm Island plant first, Iran is signaling to the UN and global community that their actions are "defensive retaliation," making it politically harder for the West to escalate without appearing to cause a genocide. |
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03-09-26 spal
The "Precedent" Doctrine:
Why Desalination is Next
The most critical OSINT signal is the Iranian Foreign Ministry's March 7 statement regarding the Qeshm Island desalination plant. By framing a (likely accidental) impact on their own water infrastructure as a "U.S. precedent," Tehran has created a legal/rhetorical "green light" for their own forces.
The Target Logic: Desalination plants are large, fixed, coastal, and highly flammable (due to co-located power units). They are essentially "un-defendable" against low-altitude drone saturation.
Reasoning:
Iran cannot win a kinetic war against the U.S. Navy. They will instead aim for a "Civilian Breakpoint"—hoping that a 48-hour water outage in a major city like Manama or Kuwait City triggers a domestic political crisis in the GCC that forces a ceasefire. |
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03-09-26 spal
| backwardation means severe shortage |
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03-09-26 spal
and the $ is up , not down :-))
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aka "flight to safety" |
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03-09-26 spal
boots on the ground in iran.
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They have to go in an physically remove the canisters of enriched uranium. |
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03-09-26 spal
as a result of this war, sanchez' spain is now extremely popular in turkey.
watch the video.
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Interesting Vic. |
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