08-29-26 carib
| https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-bonds/venezuela-sizing-the-haircut-valuing-the-exchange/ |
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08-29-26 savo
Regarding the 17 oil fields... I imagine there are other campos to explore too.
So there should still be room for companies from other countries to come in. |
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08-29-26 savo
Inversiones por más de $100.000 millones
Rodríguez afirmó que el acuerdo contempla el desarrollo de 17 campos petroleros estratégicos, con un potencial probado de 65.000 millones de barriles de petróleo.
Asimismo, indicó que se prevé una inversión superior a 100.000 millones de dólares, además de más de 209.000 millones de dólares en tributos para el Estado venezolano.
“El acuerdo permitirá incrementar considerablemente la producción de petróleo con la participación de operadores privados”, sostuvo.
Según Rodríguez, las inversiones permitirán no solo recuperar y modernizar la infraestructura petrolera, sino también generar nuevas oportunidades económicas para Venezuela.
“Estas inversiones contribuirán no solo a la recuperación y modernización de nuestra industria, sino también al crecimiento económico de nuestro país”, afirmó. |
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08-29-26 savo
DELCY 2030
https://x.com/delcyrodriguezv/status/2093498936187142301 |
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08-29-26 savo
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08-29-26 savo
I agree with Leo.. anything that means more production and more exports is positive for the bonds.
As for spal's posts...IMHO these are AI constructions done by analogy with CH11s.
We do not know the details of the deal that has been agreed, in particular who the money will flow.
For the moment all we know is that big oils did not want to deal directly with the Veni government. They want the US government to stand in the middle. And that is what is happening here.
In Pillz words it is a win-win-win.
The US secures a source of long term oil.
Big oils are protected from future nationalizations.
Veni sees massive influx of capital and future exports. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
Eventhough this does not directly concern our bonds I think it
will greatly improve the mood on Vnzuela assets financial and not
soooo bonds will rise in the next few weeks.
Keep Seat belts fastened!!! |
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08-29-26 Merlino
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08-29-26 Merlino
| Bond prices will tell about direction, I guess |
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08-29-26 Merlino
In this AI scheme it is not considered any fresh money coming from IMF/Institutions, Banks and Corporations, which are the standard providers of fresh capital usually following a debt/liabilities restructuring. All these providers of fresh capital do it bcz they are interested to have a take in the financial or operative bz.
If I understand it correctly, the AI scheme is considering that all funds to increase production, pay attached legal judgements, build infrastructure, etc. come exclusively from production revenues.
Logical perhaps however it would be a first, it seems to me.
Can or can´t happen however for this to happen it must go against a lot of personal and special interests, likely already participating in negotiations and in the definition of the scheme. Unlikely they will go totally against themselves, I think and hope.
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08-29-26 spal
Example ... concerning the waterfall ...
That four-tier priority waterfall was gleaned and synthesized from policy frameworks, court precedents, and commercial reality, rather than transcribed from a single official rulebook.
No government document lists a formal "Tier 1 to Tier 4" chart for escrow payouts. Instead, the hierarchy reflects how U.S. executive policy, federal court decisions, and financial realities intersect on the ground:
1. What IS Documented (The Hard Legal Facts)
U.S. Executive Control: Congressional testimony (such as Secretary Marco Rubio’s statements to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) and reports from the Treasury Department confirm that Venezuelan crude export proceeds are routed into U.S.-monitored escrow accounts (now handled via U.S. Treasury oversight).
Blocking Bondholder Claims (Tier 4 Wall-Off): Under U.S. sanctions frameworks and Executive Orders, proceeds in government-controlled accounts are explicitly shielded from attachment by general creditors. Standard unsecured bondholders (defaulted 2027, 2031, or PDVSA 2022 notes) have no statutory right or legal mechanism to garnish or seize cash moving through this system.
Secured vs. Unsecured Priority (Tiers 2 & 3): Proceedings in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware (Crystallex / ConocoPhillips v. Republic of Venezuela / CITGO sale) established that only claims backed by explicit court orders, ICSID arbitrations, or specific collateral (like the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bond tied to CITGO equity) hold legal standing to attached assets.
2. What WAS Gleaned / Synthesized (The Tier Model)
The structure was built by combining those legal constraints with the economic mandate of the master lease:
Why Tier 1 (Capex) Moves First: Before anyone gets paid, the fields must produce oil. Servicing contracts for field operators (such as SLB, Halliburton, or Chevron) and infrastructure repair costs take absolute commercial precedence—if the oil doesn't flow, there is no escrow revenue to divide.
Why Bondholders Sit at the Bottom: Because Washington’s explicit policy objective is stabilizing the interim administration and encouraging long-term capital deployment into the oil sector, releasing escrow cash to satisfy billions in defaulted secondary-market paper would deplete the fund without repairing a single pipeline.
Summary
The four-tier hierarchy is an analytical model illustrating how the system operates under current law and policy. Washington controls the tap, capital expenditure gets funded first, legal judgment holders fight in court, and unsecured bondholders remain sidelined until a formal, comprehensive sovereign debt restructuring takes place.
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So not written in black and white but a synthesis of where it appears to be heading based on all available information. |
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08-29-26 spal
But honestly - it is way more effective to have a well prompted and back tested AI on this.
You need to drive and direct the tool, but it can be very effective. Certainly I think so. |
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08-29-26 spal
Here this might help:
The specific details surrounding the priority cash flow waterfall and the 100-year master lease/concession legal structure are derived from executive-level policy disclosures, legal filings in foreign arbitration courts, and reporting by major financial news outlets (including Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Axios).
Because these agreements involve executive-led negotiations, international law, and Treasury regulations, the primary legal and regulatory sources underpinning these mechanisms include:
1. Sources for the Cash Flow Waterfall & Escrow Mechanics
U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC) Regulatory Framework:
OFAC General Licenses & Specific Authorizations: The rules establishing U.S. Treasury control over Venezuelan oil proceeds originate from amended OFAC General Licenses (and underlying Executive Orders such as E.O. 13884 and E.O. 14373 regarding the protection of Venezuelan state assets). These regulations mandate that all settlement transactions and crude sales clearing through Western financial institutions must pass through blocked or U.S. government-monitored escrow accounts.
U.S. District Court (District of Delaware) Filings – Crystallex & ConocoPhillips vs. Republic of Venezuela:
The legal priority of claims against Venezuelan oil revenues (separating secured/collateralized creditors from unsecured bondholders) is anchored in federal court records in Delaware (PDV Holding / CITGO auction proceedings).
Federal court rulings explicitly detail why unsecured bondholders (general PDVSA/Republic notes) lack direct attachment rights to incoming crude proceeds, whereas creditors holding ICSID international arbitration awards or specific asset pledges (like the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bondholders pledged against CITGO) hold priority standing in court-supervised waterfalls.
Financial Press & Institutional Commodity Desks:
Senior reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg energy desks breaking down the U.S. State Department and Treasury disbursement mandates, confirming that initial cash releases are strictly prioritized for on-site operational capital expenditure (capex) for service operators (e.g., SLB, Baker Hughes, Chevron) to rebuild field production before remitting net funds.
2. Sources for the Legal & Lease Structure
Article 12 of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela:
The Constitutional Baseline: Article 12 explicitly dictates that "mineral and hydrocarbon deposits... are goods of the public domain, and as such are inalienable and imprescriptible."
Legal scholars and Venezuelan opposition analysts cite Article 12 to demonstrate why the arrangement is structured as a long-term master lease/concession (transferring operational rights, wellhead export title, and revenue custody) rather than an outright sale of land or subsoil title, which would be unconstitutional without formal assembly amendment.
The Venezuelan Hydrocarbons Law (Ley Orgánica de Hidrocarburos):
The statutory authority governing Joint Ventures (Empresas Mixtas) and private operating contracts. Provisions within the reform decrees permit private operators to hold direct operational control, manage export logistics, and retain wellhead title under emergency state concession frameworks when national state enterprises (PDVSA) fail to meet operational benchmarks.
U.S. State Department & National Security Council (NSC) Policy Briefings:
Statements and background briefings from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Energy Secretary Chris Wright detailing the strategic framework: establishing 90-to-100-year commercial operating concessions across 17 targeted Orinoco and Maracaibo oil fields, designed to secure Western Hemisphere energy supplies and systematically replace legacy Chinese (CNPC) and Russian (Roszarubezhneft) joint venture participation. |
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08-29-26 spal
spal.. where are you getting this info? can you post a link?
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Sorry - it is all AI - it is scraped from all live and active sources globally (including OSCINT).
If you want a particular fact validate let me know I will run it and return the exact source - at the moment I have ordered the AI to distill the facts. |
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08-29-26 savo
| spal.. where are you getting this info? can you post a link? |
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08-28-26 spal
TORM plc (NASDAQ: TRMD)
Why They Win: TORM operates a large, modern fleet of Product and Aframax/LR1 tankers.
The Mechanism: Upstream rehabilitation requires massive imports of diluents and heavy naphtha shipped into Venezuela to blend with viscous Orinoco heavy crude so it can flow through pipelines. TORM benefits on both legs: shuttling diluent into Venezuela and carrying blended crude out to the USGC. |
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08-28-26 spal
Note that the escrow funds are immune from attachment.
Long-Term (Asset Value Rebound): Even though bondholders cannot touch the escrow cash, the master lease re-establishes the underlying asset base. Moving production from ~800k bpd toward 2M+ bpd provides the economic capacity for Venezuela to eventually table a formal debt restructuring plan (likely swapping defaulted paper for long-dated GDP/oil-linked warrants or equity-like instruments).
Give it 3 more years ... probably |
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08-28-26 savo
this deal will bring nearly $100 billion in private investment
if repayment of 100 bn investment (= expenditure cost) comes before veni sees a cent... veni will not see a cent for years to come...
The psycho must be screaming in front of a mirror! |
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08-28-26 spal
The U.S. executive branch and the Treasury Department have established a strict priority waterfall for escrow disbursements. Private bondholders are placed near the bottom of that ladder:
Tier 1: Upstream Reinvestment & Operating Expenses: Capital is first released to cover drilling services, infrastructure repairs, and operational costs for U.S. majors (like Chevron, SLB, and Halliburton) to build production capacity.
Tier 2: Expropriation Arbitrations & Specific Court Judgments: Claims backed by explicit federal court enforcement or ICSID arbitration awards resulting from legacy asset seizures (such as ConocoPhillips and Crystallex) have legal leverage to negotiate escrow payouts.
Tier 3: Ring-Fenced Collateralized Debt (PDVSA 2020 8.5%): The only bond issue with direct priority exposure is the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bond, because it was explicitly collateralized by a 50.1% equity pledge in PDV Holding, Inc. (CITGO). OFAC protects CITGO assets via specific license extensions (e.g., General License 5Y), but these holders hold physical collateral, unlike standard bondholders.
Tier 4 (Bottom): Unsecured Sovereign & PDVSA Bonds: Standard unsecured bondholders (holding defaulted 2027, 2031, or PDVSA 2022 notes) have zero direct access to the escrow funds. |
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08-28-26 spal
are our bonds part of those "historical debt claims" ?
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Nope |
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08-28-26 spal
MCM will support private 100-year concession leases—it aligns directly with her privatization agenda—provided the escrow account is structured as a temporary financial clearinghouse that eventually feeds into national reconstruction funds rather than a permanent U.S. lockbox.
So yes. |
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08-28-26 savo
guaranteeing that proceeds first service historical debt claims, expropriation settlements, and capital expenditure costs.
are our bonds part of those "historical debt claims" ? |
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08-28-26 spal
Will the Escrow Structure Last 100 Years?
No. The 100-year timeline applies to the overall lease/concession duration, not the permanent sequestration of funds in a U.S. escrow account.
The Mechanism: U.S. Treasury escrow accounts were established as an interim financial circuit following the transition earlier this year. Their primary purpose is to clear legacy debt, pay out expropriation claims (e.g., ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil), backstop new U.S. corporate capex, and prevent capital from leaking back into legacy political networks.
The Transition Plan: Over time, as debt settlements clear and institutional reforms take hold, net export proceeds are intended to transition into sovereign wealth mechanisms (such as health, energy grid, and infrastructure development funds managed jointly or by Caracas) rather than remaining indefinitely frozen in Washington. |
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08-28-26 victor
Secretary Marco Rubio
This deal is a huge win for both the American and Venezuelan people.
It demonstrates how President Trump's bold foreign policy is driving America First wins: securing stable reserves and low-cost oil in our Hemisphere and lowering gas prices here at home.
For the Venezuelan people, this deal will bring nearly $100 billion in private investment, support thousands of high-paying jobs, and drive the reconstruction of Venezuela's economy. |
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08-28-26 savo
ICE deporta a Venezuela al exmilitar Rafael Quero Silva, señalado de torturar manifestantes en las protestas de 2013
I am more interested to know when will ICE deports Guaido, Vecchio and Borges. |
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08-28-26 victor
| BREAKING NEWS: The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY! At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer. This Historic Transaction MORE THAN DOUBLES American Oil Reserves, greatly increases our Oil Supply, and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future, while helping to continue to set Venezuela on a course toward Tremendous Success and Great Prosperity. This Transaction will greatly strengthen the already growing relationship between Venezuela and the United States! Thank you for your attention to this groundbreaking matter. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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08-28-26 savo
and money will continue going to the escrow accounts for 100 years?
Will MCM agree to that?
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08-28-26 spal
The quantum president strikes again:
The U.S.–Venezuela 100-year master lease framework is a Schrödinger nationalization because it exists in a quantum superposition of two opposing legal states:
State 1 (On Paper): Not a Nationalization. Under Article 12 of the Venezuelan Constitution, subsoil reserves remain "inalienable public domain." Venezuela has not formally ceded land title, and Washington hasn't added the Orinoco Belt to the U.S. federal estate. It is framed as a long-term commercial lease.
State 2 (In Practice): De Facto Nationalization. Washington—not Caracas—controls the 17 field blocks (~90B barrels), auctions operator rights to U.S. majors, enforces maritime security, and routes 100% of crude revenues into U.S. Treasury escrow accounts.
Depending on which legal box you open, it is simultaneously a sovereign lease and an extraterritorial state takeover. |
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08-28-26 spal
The 100-Year Master Lease: Rather than an outright transfer of subsoil land title (which would violate Article 12 of the Venezuelan Constitution), the proposal structures the deal as a 90-to-100-year master lease and concession agreement.
Legal Architecture & Revenue Controls
Concession & Auction Model: Under the master lease, the U.S. government acts as the primary concession holder. It will auction off or assign operational rights to select U.S. energy majors and independents (e.g., Chevron, SLB, alongside private investment consortia) to rebuild the dilapidated infrastructure.
U.S. Treasury Escrow Account: Physical crude sales will clear through U.S. Treasury-controlled off-taker accounts. Revenue distributions to Caracas will be disbursed at the discretion of Washington, guaranteeing that proceeds first service historical debt claims, expropriation settlements, and capital expenditure costs.
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08-28-26 carib
The US government is pursuing a major stake in Venezuelan oil reserves via a potential partnership between the Department of Defense and Alejandro Betancourt, a controversial energy investor who has become a key middleman between the two countries.
The negotiations are focused on as many as 17 oil fields that span Venezuela’s main petroleum basins, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital is being discussed as the potential agency to oversee the investment, some of the people also said. The OSC was established by President Joe Biden’s administration in 2022 as part of an effort to develop critical technologies with the help of private capital. The Trump administration has tapped the OSC to address supply chain gaps. |
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08-28-26 victor
so sanchez finally woke up
//
España pide un mes después a la UE el apoyo de Frontex para el triaje de los inmigrantes en Ceuta
La Comisión ofreció hace una semana la ayuda de varias agencias al Ministerio del Interior
Casi un mes ha tenido que pasar para que Fernando Grande-Marlaska se haya decidido a solicitar a la Comisión Europea el apoyo de Frontex y de Europol para las labores de triaje de los inmigrantes que permanecen en Ceuta de manera irregular.
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08-28-26 victor
ICE deporta a Venezuela al exmilitar Rafael Quero Silva, señalado de torturar manifestantes en las protestas de 2013
CNN Español
—
El Servicio de Inmigración y Control de Aduanas de Estados Unidos (ICE) informó que deportó a Venezuela a Rafael José Quero Silva, un exoficial de la Guardia Nacional Bolivariana (GNB) a quien las autoridades estadounidenses señalan de haber participado en abusos contra manifestantes durante las protestas de 2013 contra el gobierno de Nicolás Maduro.
Quero Silva fue deportado el 18 de agosto, después de que un juez emitiera una orden de deportación, según ICE. La agencia dijo que el exmilitar fue arrestado el 27 de febrero de 2025 en Miramar, Florida.
De acuerdo con reportes de medios locales y organizaciones no gubernamentales venezolanas, Quero Silva era teniente coronel y comandante del Destacamento 47 de la GNB en Barquisimeto, en el estado Lara, ubicado en el centro occidente de Venezuela, durante las protestas de 2013.
De acuerdo con ICE, “informes indican que, en 2013, Quero Silva supervisó directamente la tortura de al menos 74 manifestantes pacíficos. Mientras estuvieron bajo custodia del Destacamento 47, bajo el mando de Quero Silva, estos manifestantes políticos fueron sometidos a descargas eléctricas, fuertes golpizas con bastones y botellas de agua congeladas, amenazas de violación y otras formas de abuso físico, psicológico y sexual”.
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08-28-26 spal
Protracted Conflict: The deadlock in the Persian Gulf is increasingly likely to last for "months or years," rather than being resolved in days or weeks.
Flawed Market Assumptions: Financial markets are repeating the mistake made during the Russia-Ukraine outbreak by assuming economic disruption will quickly force all parties to the negotiating table to strike a deal.
No Way Out for U.S. or Iran: "The most likely scenario right now is that Trump and the U.S. administration have no other solution than continuing, and nor do Iran and the IRGC."
Safety vs. Strategic Interests: Independent commercial shipowners will not send vessels into harm's way ("I look in the mirror every morning and ask if it feels safe for my seafarers, and I say no"), whereas Gulf national oil companies view maintaining transit as an existential strategic priority regardless of cost or risk.
Jacob Meldgaard, TORM plc |
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08-28-26 leopardo
Obviously latest news is positive.
Let’s see how it develops |
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08-28-26 Merlino
.. no problem with law of the jungle as long as the jungle includes our bonds!
...................
Best indicator of direction is bond prices imho. So far so good it seems, as far as I know.
This move could be mainly -not totally- to offer more long term security to USA´s oil majors, which as seen during previous months, are reluctant to invest much under current situation.
Long term security is key, imho. We know that US actions are discretionary ie the $4.xb charge for the military operation. However, going forward, the veni´s take in this bz must be reasonable otherwise l t security will not be possibly guaranteed.
Me hopes they do not by pass pdsvsa in the scheme. |
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08-28-26 savo
| carib... with a benevolent lion bonds should be trading in the 60s |
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08-28-26 savo
The Uk has fallen.... who comes next?
https://x.com/InTheTrenchesUK/status/2092953670040101266
England is in shock.
Not the shock of surprise. The shock of recognition. That moment when we finally admit what we have been seeing for years but were too polite, too exhausted, too bullied to name.
Our capital city flies foreign flags on New Year's Eve and its mayor jokes about independence. Our Prime Minister appointed a Hamas sympathiser as his chief legal adviser and a convicted fraudster as his deputy. Our police force spent £631 million on diversity training while corruption investigations collapsed by 70% and rape gangs operated with impunity. Our Energy Secretary oversaw £44 million vanishing into fraudulent schemes. Our Chancellor pocketed £54,000 from a woman who accused him of failing 1,400 raped girls. Our Manchester Mayor covered up grooming gangs while taking UAE blood money.
This is not a government. This is a looting party with parliamentary privilege.
Let us be specific, shall we? Let us do what the BBC won't.
Andy Burnham. The "King of the North" who lost his own working class constituency because his own people saw through him. The Health Secretary who buried 1,200 deaths at Mid Staffordshire to protect institutional reputations. The man who voted for an illegal war on fabricated intelligence, then voted eighteen times against inquiries into his own crime. The Mayor who spent £27 million on consultants while children were raped in the streets he controlled. The Prime Minister who, within weeks of taking office, exchanged texts with an imposter posing as Trump's chief of staff because his operational security is a joke. Who appointed Andy Slaughter, photographed shaking hands with Hamas officials in Jerusalem, to decide which groups Britain proscribes as terrorists. Who made Louise Haigh, convicted of fraud against the police, his de facto Deputy Prime Minister. Who made Miatta Fahnbulleh, daughter of a Liberian dictator's minister, Energy Secretary after she lost £44 million to fraud. Who made John Healey, who was "not convinced" an inquiry into 1,400 raped girls in his constituency would help them, his Chancellor. Who made Bev Craig, who covered up Manchester's grooming gangs, Mayor of the city region.
This is not failure upward. This is criminality institutionalised.
And London? London has Sadiq Khan. The human rights lawyer who freed Louis Farrakhan, Louis Farrakhan, to enter Britain. Who consulted on the defence of a 9/11 conspirator. Who visited terror suspects in prison and shared platforms nine times with an imam who called women subservient and gays condemned. Who signed a letter blaming 7/7 on British foreign policy, not on the bombers. Who has presided over a 72% rise in knife crime, was officially rebuked by the statistics watchdog for lying about it, and stripped the Met of AI tools that catch corrupt officers. Who extracted £500 million from drivers through ULEZ while his own assessments admitted it had "negligible effect on air quality." Who bankrupted TfL (£12 billion in debt) and hiked our council tax by 71%. Who lit the London Eye in EU colours on New Year's Eve and "joked" about declaring independence. Who denies grooming gangs exist in his city in 2026, calling survivors "politically motivated."
Our capital is being managed by a man who thinks it is his personal city state. Our country is being run by a cabinet that reads like a criminal indictment. Our police are more concerned with pronouns than burglaries. Our borders are sieves operated by Iranian terror units. Our media, our BBC, our ITV, our Channel 4, maintain a disciplined silence while MI5 stops twenty terrorist plots in a year and says nothing.
They do not serve us. They serve each other. They serve ideologies imported from American campuses and Gulf funded think tanks. They serve the next consultancy contract, the next peerage, the next sinecure in a Brussels bureaucracy or a UN agency.
And we? We pay for it all. We pay the ULEZ charges for air quality that doesn't improve. We pay the council tax hikes for services that don't arrive. We pay the TV licence for news that isn't reported. We pay for the diversity officers while our daughters are raped and our police are overwhelmed and our borders are crossed by people who hate us.
And where do these operatives report? To 16 Princes Gate, Knightsbridge. The Iranian Embassy. A Grade II listed building overlooking Hyde Park in London's most expensive postcode. The IRGC's London headquarters operates in plain sight, untouched, unraided, unclosed. We proscribed the group. We declared them terrorists. We gave ourselves the legal power to act. And then we did nothing. The Union Jack flies at half mast for dead monarchs while the flag of the Islamic Republic flies at full mast in our capital, directing operations against our own people. The building should be shuttered. The diplomats expelled. The networks dismantled. Instead, it remains open for business. A terror hub with a SW1A postcode. This is not diplomacy. This is surrender wearing a tie.
The Iranians know it. The IRGC runs smuggling routes across our Channel with impunity from their Knightsbridge embassy. They send operatives daily via small boats while our navy is deployed to diversity workshops. Trump kills IRGC operatives on Iranian soil. Burnham lets them walk free in London. That is the difference between a leader and a placeholder. Between a nation that survives and one that submits.
This is not incompetence. Incompetence is random. This is systematic. This is the deliberate dismantling of a nation by people who view its history as shameful, its people as obstacles, and its institutions as resources to be strip mined for their own advancement.
We have been told this is diversity. This is inclusion. This is progress.
It is not. It is conquest by administrative procedure. It is the replacement of competence with credentials, of justice with ideology, of truth with narrative.
The game is up. The receipts are filed. The pattern is proven.
England will not save itself. Either we do it, or it dies. Decide.
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08-28-26 carib
Veny bonds up 2 points.
Market expects moderately benevolent lion?
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08-28-26 carib
| Savo: point is.. in the jungle the lion matters.. you do not. |
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08-28-26 savo
| precisely carib...we do not want a lion that takes the assets but not the liabilities. |
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08-28-26 spal
Structure: It holds a basket of benchmark Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures contracts expiring in different months (typically second-to-expire, third-to-expire, and the expiration following the third-to-expire).
Objective: It tracks the spot price performance of wheat futures directly. It does not employ leverage multipliers (such as 2x or 3x) or inverse positions.
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So no leverage. |
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08-28-26 carib
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08-28-26 carib
| Savo: in the law of the jungle, the lion decides what do do with bonds, not the courts.. |
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08-28-26 spal
WEAT
TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TR WHEAT FD NEW
Rising fast - whoops
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08-28-26 savo
| carib.. no problem with law of the jungle as long as the jungle includes our bonds! |
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08-28-26 savo
now we know why DT kept MCM out of the loop.
An the Norwegians gave her the Nobel Prize
and she gave it to Trump!
Full circle of psychopathy! |
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08-28-26 leopardo
| Methink that Veny debt must be addressed in the next 3/4 months we shall see.. |
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08-28-26 spal
| Savo - watch for announcement of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) ... in Vene. |
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08-28-26 carib
| More speculation. Imagine Hormuz remains half closed, upgraded pipelines pump gulf oil directly to indian ocean (Oman)and red sea (loading on suez-max)and pipeline from Iraq via Turkey to mediterranean. How can Iran move its oil? |
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08-28-26 carib
Savo: just speculating.. Trump could get a 99 year long lease of some veny oil extraction areas. Clearly signed under duress. But as long as Veny is under US military influence, it would work.
Law of the jungle. |
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08-28-26 panasonic
Veni oil news all over media.
Key takes:
1) Biggest oil reserves in the world without crossing risks.
2) US direct ownership is needed so private investments can return faster.
Oil prices down on the news.
Debt is still in grey area, we could wake up to a pleasant surprise or go into midterms with nothing concrete yet. |
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08-28-26 savo
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08-28-26 savo
i do not see how can the US government own oil in veni...
i can see how it can may exclusivity contracts in exchange of financing or whatever...
The US can take over veni... its assets and liabilities... and I imagine venezuelans will be very happy.. creating some kind of legal association... of whatever form...
I wonder what does MCM think about all this... and still wonder what are Vecchio, Borges and Guaido's occupation these days... how do they make a living. |
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08-28-26 carib
Savo: probably .. move on the oil.
something that he can sell as "victory" to US voters.
But I am unable to predict what. |
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08-28-26 savo
| move on the debt? move on the elections? on what exactly? |
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08-28-26 carib
| Meaning some visible move in the next 2 months. |
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08-28-26 savo
| carib.. faster on veni would mean? |
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08-28-26 panasonic
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08-28-26 carib
| I suspect Trump might aim at going faster in Veny, before mid-term. |
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08-28-26 carib
Panas: one step at a time.
I am not sure how the senate will end up, first of all.
Even less sure what the Trump gang will do. |
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