08-24-26 savo
No counter arguments involving Santanists or Draculas will be accepted ...
spal... the problem is not the stock of debt but... as they say today.. the trajectory.
Over the last 12 months the debt grew more than 3 trn dollars.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/
That is the real deficit, ex-post.
Not the one forecasted in the budget ex-ante.
That trajectory is unsustainable for the simple reason that buyers do not care about assets of the private sector or assets of the public sector which nobody knows where they are, who manages them or what is their market value.
Lenders look at the US federal cash flow... and that cash flow looks horrible. So they are selling treasuries...and the US is running out of lenders.
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08-24-26 spal
Iran is getting squeezed from 3 directions
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, Iran’s oil exports are reportedly nearing zero, and its own political leadership is now openly arguing over whether the war can continue.
Nearly 200 vessels passed through Hormuz last week, a roughly 400% increase in two weeks, while U.S. pressure and the UAE’s suspension of trade are tightening the economic noose.
President Masoud Pezeshkian says the war must eventually end. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf is warning that military power means little if Iran’s economy collapses.
Tehran may still have missiles, but its leverage is getting harder to convert into an exit.
====
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08-24-26 spal
No counter arguments involving Santanists or Draculas will be accepted ...
;)) |
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08-24-26 spal
US Debt stack is NOT 40 trillion - it is 32T as 8 of the 40 headline number is owed to the social security trust fund. This 8 trillion is internal and has no bearing on capital markets or rates.
Now real interest rates in the US are NOT higher than the real growth rate of the economy. Rising rates are actually an indication of growth and activity.
The weighted average interest rate across all outstanding US debt is significantly lower than current long-term yields.
Rising interest rates usually accompany nominal inflation. While inflation raises the cost of new borrowing, it simultaneously devalues the existing debt stock relative to GDP.
Tax revenues automatically scale up with inflation (higher nominal incomes, higher sales, corporate revenues). The existing $32 trillion debt principal stays fixed in nominal terms.
Inflation quietly burns away the real burden of historical debt.
A nation with $160+ trillion in private wealth and $150+ trillion in federal natural assets holding $32 trillion in market debt is fundamentally solvent.
====
Sorry ... merry christmas
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08-23-26 spal
Canada will retain nominal constitutional sovereignty while surrendering administrative trade autonomy. The long-term architecture will settle into a managed integration regime: Canada accepts junior-partner status within the North American perimeter, securing conditional market access in exchange for absolute policy alignment with US security, border, and supply-chain directives.
===
Be it so recorded ... |
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08-23-26 savo
re Bessent..
you know that.. i know that.. the market knows that... every central bank in the world knows that... the only one that does not seem to know is the incompetent in the WH and his Yes Sir, Yes Sir pathetic sec of the treasury.
The other explanation is this was one more trade to enrich friends and family.
The important matter is that the world is selling USTs and the Treasury is buying them with short term debt that will eventually land in the balance sheet of the fed.
The world keeps on buying US stocks though ... until one day they will not.
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08-23-26 victor
and as someone pointed out, maybe pt, some white people did not want another black president..
maybe would've voted for biden.. but voted for dt. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic all true, but Elon's roll was key, what if the dem. candidate was a pro-business one? maybe Musk decides to stay out of the political arena.
as Carib posted, impossible to know, the only thing we do know, it went wrong for them. |
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08-23-26 victor
according to this guy, biden was deposed by the party.
in any case, i add: harris is not to blame for such decision.
//
"The deposing of Biden will remain a great source of controversy within the Democratic party," Steven Schier, a political scientist and analyst, told Newsweek. "It's clear that Biden, even with his cognitive disabilities, would have performed better than Harris in states like Pennsylvania." |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, maybe.. maybe not.
people were also fed up of biden, the autopen, illegal immigrants, open borders, etc etc |
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08-23-26 carib
In retrospect, it is evident Biden (and his wife) made a tragic mistake in deciding he was fit to stand for office again.
Nobody actually knows for sure how the Dem primaries would have gone, without Biden standing. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, decisions based on transparency a valid democratic exercise.
As consequence, things went so sour that dems. not only lose presidency, but they also lost the house. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, technically speaking that's how it works.
you found the pana-party, you get to control delegates, etc and decide who becomes candidate.
musk wanted to found a party. the candidate would've likely
been his choice. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| Vic, yes 100%...let delegates decide, not Biden's doctor. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, PSA tests
//
this is beyond the scope of this.
it's possible, even if unlikely, for you to convince the dem party to give you its delegates.. without forcing you to go through a primary.
then you would be the dem candidate for president, pana..
NO COUPS INVOLVED. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, mine also, just was a reply to Carib's post:
"and the Dems appear to be confused about what they stand for".
Anyway, you are the one that said:
"we must live on different planets, pana"
in my planet, PSA tests are not omitted ;-) |
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08-23-26 carib
Savo: re Bessent..
I think Treasury cannot try to rule short term rates, long term UST rates and inflation at the same time.
In theory, Treasury could buy back all long term UST issuing short term paper to finance the buyback.. but then short term rates would move up.. unless he buys short term bonds too.. printing money.. in which case inflation would move up, I guess.
Trump supposedly wants to wage wars, impose tariffs, have low interest rates, low inflation and the S&P up at the same time.
I think this would be mission impossible for any US treasury secretary.. |
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08-23-26 victor
| pana, my op is irrelevant. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, from an internal point of view inside the party, hiding Biden's health to skip primaries, what would you call it?
Now, if you think Kamala would have won primaries anywas, yes I would agree with you 100%, but...
On step forward, can you be sure another democrat elected in primaries would have lose elections? personally, I'm not sure.
The butterfly effect ;-) |
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08-23-26 victor
| George Washington and James Monroe were elected without partisan primaries or opposition, as the early U.S. lacked a structured two-party system. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, that is not the point. you mentioned a coup.
there was no such thing as a coup.
it's about securing the required # of delegates.
primaries are the main mechanism of achieving such goal, but it's certainly not the only way of doing so. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| ...so long story short, Kamala would have not won primaries. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| without Biden "in" primaries |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, without Biden primaries, he already had an aggressive cance by January 2024.
Interesting to note (from Gemini):
"Precedent of Other Presidents: Other modern presidents, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, routinely underwent and publicly disclosed PSA test results during their annual physicals.
The omission in Biden's reports left a critical blind spot that allowed an aggressive, Gleason score 9 cancer to spread to his bones undetected."
Omission on something that was routinely done to all presidents, a simple PSA test? |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, similar to lbj and humphrey.
lbj resigns as candidate after the primaries had taken place, because he realized his popularity was low..
so humphrey becomes candidate, after securing the required delegate votes..
no primaries for humphrey either. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, the democratic thing to do was calling primaries.
//
wait a second. this was not possible, as primaries had already taken place, and biden won said primaries.
then, apparently, his health took a turn for the worse.. biden withdraws.. and she receives the required delegate votes.
//
Joe Biden won the 2024 Democratic presidential primaries, securing 3,905 pledged delegates (98.9%) and 87.1% of the popular vote before suspending his campaign on July 21, 2024. Although he clinched the nomination on March 12, 2024, he withdrew from the general election race, becoming the first eligible incumbent president since 1968 to do so after securing the nomination.
Following Biden's withdrawal, the Democratic Party nominated Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate through a virtual roll call at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Harris received 4,567 delegate votes to officially become the nominee.
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08-23-26 panasonic
Leo, I'm more in the 3x ETFs camp right now, using call spreads.
Paper Gold me doing $UGL, my thinking behind such bets is very simple, ride the rally while limiting my loss. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
Instead of phisical gold/ gold etf I hold k92 as a Gold
investment and portfolio diversification.
It’s gold leveraged without knock outs/margins |
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I have the same attitude.. but I remember feeling Samsung was "toppish" when it hit 350K..
I bought it at 70K, so no problem.. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
For example: bought k92 at 24.5 it went at 32 I did not sell.
It got back to 20 now it is at 30.
I still hold. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
Vic, at least give me your version of what happened there, we can't compare notes otherwise.
Biden was already in advanced stage of cancer months before elections, the democratic thing to do was calling primaries.
Kamala's attempt to skip primaries and become President once Biden got re-elected was (to me) a coup inside the dems party.
Now, pls give me yours. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
| Trading and scalping, my current job :-) |
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08-23-26 leopardo
From a trader’s point of view yes.
I have the luck and strenght that I can tolerate
volatility as my time horizon is long/ very long.
I invest in companies on fondamentals looking at
technical patterns only to chose the appropriate moment
to buy. |
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I agree.
Yet, 350K was a temporary top, and traders should have sold, to buy back 25% cheaper soon after..
In hindsight, of course. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
| I’ve never been a trader or a scalper. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
Carib I’m a long term investor and I see that Samsung fundamentals
are pre try strong.
I will hold at least for one more year if not much more. |
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08-23-26 savo
You could move to New York City.
Rent an 852-square-foot apartment for $5,503 a month.
Blow $500 on three “first dates” a week and somehow remain single for six years.
Finally meet someone you like, then discover they’re “not really looking for anything serious right now.”
Get a master’s degree so you can qualify for an internship.
Apply to 147 jobs, get 93 automated rejections, and finally find an “entry-level” position requiring five years of experience.
Eventually land a six-figure job and still need a roommate to make rent.
Pay federal income tax, New York State income tax, AND New York City income tax because apparently living there is a three-level subscription.
Learn that a “quiet neighborhood” means the sirens only come by every 20 minutes.
Pay $27 every day for a sandwich (no sides) because the place has exposed brick and a handwritten menu.
Take the subway to work every morning and develop the useful skill of pretending not to notice absolutely anything happening around you.
Spend 45 minutes traveling three miles.
Carry your groceries home six blocks because parking near your apartment is more of a philosophical concept than an actual possibility.
Have “owning a washer and dryer” become one of your primary measures of generational wealth.
Walk past a mountain of trash bags on your way to a restaurant with a Michelin star.
Tell your friends back home you don’t need a car while spending $46 on an Uber because the subway is delayed again.
Go to Central Park when you want to remember what trees look like.
Spend your twenties telling everyone you could NEVER live anywhere else.
Then one day you visit your cousin in Iowa.
He has a house with four bedrooms, a garage, a yard, two cars, four kids, and somehow pays less than you do for the apartment where your refrigerator touches your couch.
But hey.
The NYC bagels are incredible.
https://x.com/joshuabarzon/status/2089347718632124918 |
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08-23-26 victor
| savo, i remember dt saying that he tells the treasury secy what to do. |
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08-23-26 savo
Elon's
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/cdn5gsAV8CE |
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08-23-26 savo
Every market has a fellow who is certain the prices are wrong and that he alone knows the right ones. Usually the market charges him tuition for this belief. Occasionally, it hands him the Treasury.
Consider the record. In 2000, Scott Bessent left Soros to run $1 billion of his own. Five years later, the fund no longer existed. In 2015 he tried again with Key Square, co-founded with Soros alum Michael Germino and seeded with $2 billion of Soros money — which is a bit like failing your driving test and being handed a Ferrari. Assets peaked at $5.1 billion in 2017 and finished 2023 at $577 million. Institutional investors reportedly went from 180 to 20, a retention rate that would embarrass a gym in February. And in 2018, Soros — the man who staked him — took his chips off the table. When your own anchor investor would rather not watch, that is not typically a buy signal.
Which brings us to the question: is the man now confidently dictating where oil, the dollar, Treasury yields, and stocks ought to trade a macro mastermind the market tragically failed to appreciate? Or did the market spend two decades doing its due diligence on him — and sell? He believes he’s smarter than the market. The market already graded that exam. Twice.
https://x.com/gordonjohnson19/status/2091159921760796799
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08-23-26 carib
| But, in hindsight, we should have sold @350.000 wons |
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08-23-26 leopardo
Of course.
A mix of them suits me well |
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I saw, and have no influence on Samsung board decisions.
As a shareholder, I notice that dividends suffer a withholding tax, and share buybacks should cause an increase in the value of the outstanding shares that implies no tax |
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08-23-26 leopardo
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08-23-26 carib
Leo: I saw that.
I would prefer shares buyback.. |
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08-23-26 victor
pana, Kamala's attempt of a coup inside dems party
what ????
we must live on different planets, pana.
i feel totally unrelated to some of the stuff you post. |
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08-23-26 leopardo
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08-23-26 leopardo
Samsung Capital Return Program (2026)
Samsung Electronics has approved a record shareholder return framework totaling 90 trillion to 110 trillion South Korean won (~$65 billion to $80 billion USD), marking the largest capital return package ever by a South Korean company.
www.thelec.net
Measure Amount (KRW) Amount (USD) Timeline / Details
Total Return Framework 90T – 110T won ~$65B – $80B Total capital allocation planned for 2026.
Q3 2026 Dividends ~30T won ~$21.7B Includes regular and special cash dividends. Operational details to be finalized at the late-October 2026 Board meeting.
Final 2026 Remuneration Remaining pool (~60T–80T won) ~$43B – $58B Balance of cash dividends, buybacks, and share cancellations to be finalized at the January 2027 Board meeting.
Treasury Buyback (Separate) 15T won ~$10.8B Open-market share acquisition (~53.3 million shares) designated for employee incentive programs.
Key Implementation Phases
October 2026 Board Meeting: Samsung will finalize the exact distribution breakdown between regular and special cash dividends for the ~30 trillion won Q3 payout.
January 2027 Board Meeting: The Board will determine the precise structure—combining additional cash dividends, share buybacks, and share retirements—for the remaining balance based on final 2026 Free Cash Flow (FCF) metrics.
MLQ.ai
(Note: Under Samsung's 2024–2026 shareholder return policy, the company aims to distribute 50% of cumulative free cash flow to shareholders. Exact distributions remain subject to final operating earnings, CapEx spending, and cash flow generation.)
www.thelec.net |
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08-23-26 carib
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08-23-26 panasonic
Carib, after Kamala's attempt of a coup inside dems party, me became ultra pessimistic (as posted many times here), party has been unable to deliver a proper "internal" response, so US politics now down to a war between influencers.
Big loser democracy, big winner is China of course. |
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08-23-26 panasonic
"Carib: we have access to the same polls, on-line."
Prediction markets will replace traditional polls imho.
We don't follow that much, but younger generations do...will be very interesting to watch which reads are more accurate. |
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08-23-26 carib
Victor: that was Biden's illusion.
My opinion is the US political system is very sick.
The GOP has been replaced by a cult, and the Dems appear to be confused about what they stand for.
No serious third party in sight either.
Today, someone said, politics is hatred+algorytms.. |
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08-23-26 victor
carib, i suppose biden's argument for running would be:
i did because i am the only one who was able to beat dt..
not hillary.. not kamala. |
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08-23-26 carib
PS. I agree Biden's biggest mistake was not to identify a strong successor, and then decide it was time to retire.
People should not take very heavy duty executive positions, in my opinion, older than 65.
But then there is vanity.. |
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08-23-26 carib
Victor: we have access to the same polls, on-line.
I just asked your prediction, and you asked mine.
Then, early november, we will see what actually happens. |
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08-23-26 carib
| “It is an irony of history that strategic failure in Iran will haunt [Trump] too. He never wanted to become Carter and now he is becoming him.” |
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08-23-26 victor
savo, this is how irresponsible biden was, in wanting to run for re-election.
had he won, he would be very sick right now.
//
Ex-President Joe Biden's cancer has spread, is very painful, son says
Updated August 9, 2026
Aug 8 (Reuters) - Former U.S. President Joe Biden's prostate cancer has spread beyond his bones and is very painful, his son, Hunter Biden, said in an interview with the BBC.
“The cancer has spread, metastasized into his bones and further,” Hunter Biden told BBC's "Newsnight," according to video posted online on Friday. “It’s very painful and it’s very debilitating in many respects.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ex-president-joe-bidens-cancer-has-spread-is-very-painful-son-says-2026-08-08/
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08-23-26 victor
carib, according to the hill, there are 8 gop seats that could flip in the senate.. 8.. which is a lot.
one of them is tx.. but other than that??
//
Senate rankings: 8 GOP seats that could flip in November
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6026446-senate-gop-seats-flip-midterms/
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08-23-26 victor
savo, but that doesn't mean anything
DT is not in his right mind
//
what do you mean it means nothing??
biden was not in his right mind..
and he didn't do anything regarding vz. |
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08-23-26 victor
| carib, what's so special about the tx senate race that you singled it out? |
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08-23-26 carib
Facts about the past, if analysed impartially, are objective,
but opinions about them remain subjective.
Perennial confrontation of subjective and diverging opinions about the past is a waste of time, unless it includes the unveiling of previously unknown facts.
Discussion and predictions about the future are useful, because the job of investors is largely based on correct predictions about the future. |
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08-23-26 carib
Victor: forecast is not equal to certain.
And I wrote "rebus sic stantibus".
The future is by definition uncertain. |
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08-23-26 savo
the only thing his advisors could come up with was more sanctions... same as in iran... after 6 months of a needless war to please the bloodthirsty israelis and destroying a lot of military equipment which they now have to replace borrowing more money or printing more funny money ... he went back to the original book and only book they have... sanctions... trade disruption... economic damage... etc...
The good thing about veni is that the country was so weak that no clever crook around him came up with the idea of bombing veni. Had veni been stronger... they would have. |
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08-23-26 savo
yes victor... but that doesn't mean anything... he gave the go ahead as he has given the go ahead to every dumb move his advisors have recommended on the economy.. on tariffs... on war.. etc.
This did not come from him or his advisors... it came from veni.
DT is not in his right mind..every time he opens his mouth either he lies or he says stupidities.
This is a dangerous president.. for the country and for the world...
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08-23-26 victor
savo, be fair.
dt had to give the go-ahead for the us military to capture and extract him from vz. |
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