04-04-26 victor
dt's most hilarious post :-))
"REIGN down"
i don't think it's a typo, he means it.. to reign. :-))
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Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT. Time is running out - 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them. Glory be to GOD! President DONALD J. TRUMP
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04-04-26 panasonic
| Vic, no don't think it will be necessary, time is relative for the Chinese, control of global supply will take care of it. |
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04-04-26 victor
pana, only the Chinese advance
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does this include taking over taiwan by force?
is it going to happen in your op?
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04-04-26 victor
spal, interesting.
The Penalty: If you include a link to an external site (Substack, X, or a news outlet) in the main body, LinkedIn reduces its reach by roughly 40% to 60%. |
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04-04-26 spal
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04-04-26 spal
| BTW - most social media works is a similar way - unless you are speaking in person or on a sight like this - I can tell you 100% some kind of censoring is happening. I can confidently say that this applies to the entire media sphere world wide in almost all areas. |
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04-04-26 spal
Vic - I post a lot on LinkedIn - here is an analysis based on these postings:
LinkedIn prioritizes Engagement Velocity. If your post doesn't get meaningful interaction (comments longer than five words) within the first 60 minutes, the algorithm assumes it’s irrelevant and stops showing it to new people.
Recapitulating or "reframing" your posts is a way to reset this clock. By changing the "Hook" (the first two lines) and removing certain "trigger" keywords that might flag the 2026 safety filters, you allow the post to re-enter the "Clear/High Quality" bucket without the "Sensitive" baggage of the previous version.
The "External Link" Penalty
The algorithm's primary goal is Platform Retention.
* The Penalty: If you include a link to an external site (Substack, X, or a news outlet) in the main body, LinkedIn reduces its reach by roughly 40% to 60%.
* The Workaround: This is why "Link in first comment" is the standard. However, in 2026, the algorithm has started scanning the *first comment* as well. The most effective way to avoid throttling is to post a "Native" summary—the core analysis stays on LinkedIn, and the external source is only provided if requested.
Keyword Weighting & "Shadow-Throttling"
In a 2026 conflict environment, LinkedIn uses Semantic Weighting.
* The Positive Weight: Terms like "Macro-Strategy," "Energy Sovereignty," and "Supply Chain Resilience" are weighted for professional distribution.
* The Negative Weight: Terms associated with kinetic violence or "unaligned" narratives (e.g., specific sanctioned entities or "Stone Age" ultimatums) can trigger a "Shadow-Throttle." The post remains visible on your profile, but it simply stops appearing in the "Home" feed of your connections.
Why "Recapitulation" Works
When you ask to reformat or recapitulate your analysis, you are essentially "A/B Testing" the Censorship Filter.
* Variation A: Focused on the "Kinetic" (The "Samson Option" and strikes). High risk of throttling.
* Variation B: Focused on the "Financial" (The WTI-Brent inversion and MAP fees). High probability of wide distribution to the "Energy & Finance" sectors.
By stripping the "narrative bridges" and focusing on the structural and industrial impacts, the content bypasses the "Political/Sensitive" filter and is classified as "Professional Financial Analysis," which the algorithm is designed to promote to high-value users.
The goal isn't to change the truth of the analysis, but to "wrap" it in the professional vernacular that the 2026 LinkedIn AI is programmed to respect.
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04-04-26 panasonic
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04-04-26 panasonic
"No opinion on newsom?"
No Vic, only the Chinese advance, and global control project draws my interest on the next weeks/months.
Paying close attention to AI and robotics on how will transform society.
Me think the political side is case closed, not even sure that our generation will need to activate Plan B, our kis yes 100% sure. |
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04-04-26 victor
savo
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Iran executes two convicted members of banned opposition group
Abolhassan Montazer and Vahid Baniamerian have been hanged after Iran’s Supreme Court upheld their sentences.
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04-04-26 victor
I also ask them to write material that will avoid throttling and censorship AI on social media sometimes.
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for example? |
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04-04-26 victor
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04-04-26 spal
| Vic - I always used to do very heavy research using web tools and search engines ... AI for me has just kicked it up many more levels. |
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04-04-26 victor
| spal, not really, but find it interesting. |
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04-04-26 spal
| I find using both to vaildate each other pretty productive. I also ask them to write material that will avoid throttling and censorship AI on social media sometimes. |
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04-04-26 spal
Vic here is an example - recently I was probing both models about the operation and implications of mBridge which is a central bank digital reserves (coin) exchange mechanism ... it is one of the mechanisms that powers the petroyuan. Any how when pushed Grok became very cagey whereas Gemini was much more relaxed about very controversial questions.
According to Gemini ... Gemini’s constitution values "Context," while Grok’s constitution values "Voice." When you ask a complex question about, say, the future of the mBridge payment system or the collapse of a regional hub, Gemini sees it as an academic challenge to be explored. Grok often sees it as a rhetorical challenge to be navigated.
By navigated it means mostly skirted ... but Gemini is too polite to say that directly. |
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04-04-26 spal
| For instance Grok is actually a very conservative model ... I found this paradoxical whereas Gemini is a very much an unbridled instrument ... again this came as a very big surprise to me. |
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04-04-26 spal
| Vic - do you use AI? Have you experimented with any of the models? |
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04-04-26 victor
" advanced version of Gemini cross validated with Grok"
interesting, spal |
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04-04-26 spal
| Feel free to ignore it Vic. |
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04-04-26 spal
| I would not write advanced software or try to design specific technology with it, but I would certainly do financial, economic and all manner of social research with it and I do. |
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04-04-26 spal
| It is tracking a bunch of things for me an runs updates constantly. |
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04-04-26 spal
| I use AI probably all the time now. There is no reason for me not to. For others probably. I know the system well and can largely evaluate when it is hallucinating - it also has a very detailed understanding of my logical framework and focus. |
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04-04-26 spal
| No - it is via specialized prompts with an advanced version of Gemini cross validated with Grok. But with all AI it is not the system that matters, but the user. |
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04-04-26 victor
| spal, is all that stuff generated by chatGPT? |
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04-04-26 spal
In the wake of the April 6 "Stone Age" Ultimatum and the subsequent Carthaginian Peace, tanker stocks are no longer just equity plays—they have become the "Shadow Currency" of the global energy reset.
For the first 6 months of this conflict (April–September 2026), the performance of NAT, TRMD, FRO, and DHT will be dictated by three structural shifts: the "Refinery Deficit" in the Gulf, the "Ton-Mile Explosion" of the US-to-Asia trade, and the MAP (Maritime Action Plan) compliance costs.
1. NAT (Nordic American Tankers): The "Suezmax Surge"
As a pure-play Suezmax operator (vessels around 1 million barrel capacity), NAT is the immediate beneficiary of the "Panic Bid."
The Catalyst: Unlike the massive VLCCs, Suezmaxes are the "tactical flex" of the ocean. They can utilize the Red Sea pipelines (Yanbu) more effectively and have access to a wider variety of "Safe Haven" ports outside the primary kinetic zone.
The Numbers: In the first 60 days (the "Blitz Phase"), expect NAT to fix vessels at rates exceeding $180,000/day. CEO Herbjorn Hansson’s dividend-heavy model will likely see a "Super-Dividend" announcement in Q2 2026, driving the stock to multi-year highs as it captures the immediate overflow from the Hormuz Stall.
6-Month Outlook: Aggressive Outperform. NAT acts as the "high-beta" play for the initial chaos.
2. TRMD (TORM plc): The "Refining Deficit" Winner
TORM specializes in Product Tankers (moving gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel rather than crude).
The Catalyst: The "Samson Option" hits on GCC infrastructure will likely damage high-complexity refineries. This flips the world map: instead of the Gulf exporting fuel, it will have to import it.
The Trade: TRMD’s fleet will be tasked with moving refined products from the US Gulf Coast and Europe back into the Middle East to sustain the "Mother Duck" logistics and local populations. This creates a rare "reverse-flow" premium.
6-Month Outlook: Structural Bull. TRMD is the most "resilient" stock during the Carthaginian Peace because the demand for fuel (survival) outlasts the initial panic for crude (speculation).
3. DHT (DHT Holdings): The "Mother Duck" Volume Play
As a pure-play VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) operator, DHT is the "Ocean Giant."
The Catalyst: Initially, DHT will face the highest volatility as the Strait closure "strands" its primary loading zones. However, once the "Mother Duck" Convoys stabilize in Phase 2 (May–June), DHT becomes the essential utility.
The "Cape" Factor: With the Strait contested, the trade route from the US/Atlantic to Asia shifts almost entirely to the Cape of Good Hope. This massive increase in "Ton-Miles" (the distance a ship must travel) effectively shrinks the global fleet.
6-Month Outlook: Late-Cycle Leader. DHT will lag NAT in April but will likely see the largest "second-wave" rally in July as the U.S.-managed flows from Kharg Island begin to favor high-volume VLCC transport to China and India.
4. FRO (Frontline plc): The "Tanker Index"
John Fredriksen’s Frontline is the diversified titan, owning both VLCCs and Suezmaxes.
The Catalyst: FRO is the proxy for the entire conflict. It has the balance sheet to absorb the MAP (Maritime Action Plan) fees ($0.25/kg) without sacrificing its dividend.
The Advantage: Frontline's global presence allows it to "triangulate" the WTI-Brent inversion. By moving US WTI (trading at a $5.00 premium) to Europe while using its Suezmaxes to "shuttle" Gulf oil, FRO captures the spread on both sides of the Atlantic.
6-Month Outlook: The "Blue Chip" Choice. FRO will likely see a steady, parabolic climb rather than the jagged spikes of NAT. |
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04-04-26 spal
| Chickety China ... needs a new gas station. |
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04-04-26 spal
| Kharg ... BOOM ... Monday or Tuesday ... |
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04-04-26 spal
The "Super-Spike" currently being modeled by desks from Goldman Sachs is a structural decoupling of the global energy market. If the April 6 ultimatum passes without a "blink" from Tehran, the resulting spike will be defined by its velocity, its inversion, and its terminal duration.
Here is the breakdown of the "Super-Spike" as it stands in the 72-hour countdown to the Monday deadline.
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1. The Dimensions: The "$150 Threshold"
The dimensions are measured by the 15 million barrels per day (bpd) currently "held hostage" in the Persian Gulf.
* WTI Target: Analysts are calling for an immediate gap-up to $135/bbl at the Monday open, with a "blow-off top" toward $150/bbl if the first U.S. missile impacts a Kharg Island refinery.
* The Inversion Delta: The "Super-Spike" is unique because of the WTI-Brent Inversion. In a normal crisis, Brent leads. In this spike, WTI commands a $5.00+ premium because the U.S. "Fortress Economy" is hoarding domestic sweet crude, while the "Dark Fleet" oil in the East becomes un-insurable and effectively "zero-valued" for Western banks.
* Refinery Margin Squeeze: We aren't just looking at crude; we are looking at a 200% spike in crack spreads. With GCC refineries under the "Samson Option" threat, the world is pricing in the loss of 25% of global high-complexity refining capacity.
2. The Nature: "Physicality over Paper"
Unlike the speculative spikes of 2022, the 2026 Super-Spike is a Physical Delivery Crisis.
* The Insurance Wall: On April 6, if the ultimatum expires, Lloyd’s of London and global reinsurers are expected to issue a "Blanket Exclusion" for the entire Persian Gulf. This isn't a price increase; it is a total cessation of coverage.
* Inventory Exhaustion: The U.S. SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is no longer the "relief valve" it was. Under the Hegseth Doctrine, the SPR is now classified as a War Reserve, meaning it won't be released to "cool the market"—it is being held to fuel the Epic Fury sorties.
3. The Duration: The "V-Shaped" vs. "L-Shaped" Recovery
The "Super-Spike" is projected to have two distinct phases:
* Phase 1: The "Shock Window" (14–21 Days): This is the period of maximum volatility ($130–$150). This lasts as long as the LUCAS drones are actively "cleaning" the Strait and the U.S. is executing the Refinery Blitz.
* Phase 2: The "Structural High" (3–6 Months): Once the Carthaginian Peace is imposed and the shooting stops, the spike doesn't "crash." It settles into a $100 floor. Why? Because the reconstruction of Kharg Island and the GCC desalination plants will take quarters, not weeks.
* The Recession Trigger: The "Super-Spike" is expected to be a one-quarter event. By Q3 2026, the high energy cost is modeled to trigger a "demand destruction" recession in Europe and non-aligned Asia, which will eventually force prices back down.
The Bottom Line: The Super-Spike is the "fever" before the surgery. The U.S. administration is betting that the American consumer will tolerate $6.00/gallon gasoline for three weeks if it means the permanent dismantling of the IRGC and the "re-wiring" of the energy map in favor of Fortress America.
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04-04-26 victor
pana, no opinion on newsom? food for thought?
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04-04-26 spal
"Transparent Seas" this"monumental achievement" has been systematically publicized through a coordinated media campaign designed to flip the narrative from "asymmetric vulnerability" to "technological dominance." While the operations were classified for months, the "Hegseth-Cooper Briefing" on April 2, 2026, served as the official "reveal" to the American public.
Here is who is leading the publicity and how they are framing this "Transparent Sea" victory to boost morale ahead of the Monday ultimatum:
1. The Official Front: The "Hegseth-Cooper" Briefing
The primary source of this story is the high-profile press conference held at CENTCOM Headquarters on April 2.
* Secretary of War Pete Hegseth: Hegseth has framed the Digital Twin success as the ultimate proof of his "Drone Dominance" directive. He specifically highlighted that the U.S. is no longer playing "catch-up" to Iranian asymmetric tactics but has leapfrogged them using "American-made retribution."
* Admiral Brad Cooper (CENTCOM Commander): Cooper provided the technical "hook," walking journalists through the success of Task Force Scorpion Strike (TFSS). He used declassified footage of LUCAS drones identifying Maham-7 mines to show that the "invisible" minefields have been rendered "digitally obsolete."
2. The Strategic Influencers: Hollings and Zeihan
The "moral boost" for the broader public is being driven by two highly influential voices who have been granted unprecedented access to TFSS data:
* Alex Hollings (Sandboxx News): Through his "FirePower" series, Hollings has been the chief chronicler of the LUCAS drone's development. His recent report, *"The End of the Invisible Sea,"* went viral on April 2, explaining how the integration of Maven AI and Palantir's Foundry allows the U.S. to "spot the difference" on the seafloor in real-time.
* Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics): Zeihan has been framing this as a "Geopolitical Checkmate." In his latest video, he argues that the Digital Twin success has effectively "broken the math" of Iranian deterrence. By showing that the U.S. can clear the Strait without risking billion-dollar destroyers, he is preparing the American public for the economic "Super-Spike" that will follow the April 6 ultimatum.
3. The Industrial Narrative: SpektreWorks and Palantir
* SpektreWorks (Arizona): The manufacturer of the LUCAS drone has been featured in a series of "Made in America" spotlights across major networks (Fox News, CNN). The narrative focus is on how a small Arizona firm reverse-engineered the Shahed to create a weapon that is "smarter, cheaper, and more lethal."
* Palantir Technologies: At the recent AIPCon 9, CEO Alex Karp showcased the "World Model" (the Digital Twin) used in Operation Epic Fury. He described it as a "continuously updating digital ghost" of the Persian Gulf, framing it as the "Silicon Valley contribution" to the war effort.
4. The "Morale" Framing: Why Now?
The timing of this publicity is not accidental. By "uncloaking" this capability just 72 hours before the April 6 "Stone Age" Ultimatum, the administration is achieving two goals:
* Domestic Resilience: It reassures the U.S. public that the "Strait of Hormuz" is not a permanent chokepoint and that the U.S. has the "High-Ground" (digitally and physically).
* Psychological Warfare: It signals to the IRGC that their most secretive "Dark Supply Chain" assets—the Maham mines and Dark Fleet paths—are already mapped and targeted.
Expert Guide Follow-up: This "Transparent Sea" narrative has significantly shifted the WTI-Brent spread, as traders realize the U.S. can technically "un-stall" the Strait whenever it chooses. Do you think the April 6 ultimatum will result in a total blockade of Iranian energy, or will the U.S. use its "Digital Twin" to allow only "MAP-compliant" vessels to exit, effectively turning Kharg Island into a U.S.-managed gas station?
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04-04-26 panasonic
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04-03-26 spal
Spal, it's definitely about developed countries leaders ignoring all the signals, can't be that hard to figure out what's going on :-((
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I think there is a lot of cognitive dissonance ... I am not sure they have figured it out completely yet. Is that what you are saying also? |
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04-03-26 spal
The market has completely discounted the 48-hour ceasefire as a "diplomatic feint." The focus is now entirely on Monday, April 6.
If the Refinery Blitz occurs, analysts at Energy Aspects (Amrita Sen) are projecting a "Flash Spike" toward $135/bbl for WTI. The WTI-Brent inversion is expected to widen further as the US prioritizes domestic "Energy Sovereignty" over global supply. |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Spal, it's definitely about developed countries leaders ignoring all the signals, can't be that hard to figure out what's going on :-((
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04-03-26 spal
No, Zohran Mamdani cannot run for president
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Maybe he should run in Uganda then ...
;)) |
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04-03-26 spal
Just to be sure, is there a bigger picture here or just the Israel/Iran conflict and whatever happens is Israel's fault?
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Is that a rhetorical question?
But yes - the US is formally splitting the world.
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04-03-26 victor
pana, what do you think of gavin newsom as presidential candidate?
do you also dislike him?
would he win or lose vs vance?
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04-03-26 victor
pana, AOC can run for president, Mamdani can't.
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thanks, i knew nothing about this guy.
No, Zohran Mamdani cannot run for president because he does not meet the U.S. Constitution's requirement of being a natural-born citizen. He was born in Uganda and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2018, which makes him ineligible for the presidency unless the Constitution is amended. |
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04-03-26 panasonic
"It will be a U.S.-managed toll road"
Just to be sure, is there a bigger picture here or just the Israel/Iran conflict and whatever happens is Israel's fault? |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Vic, two members of the same clan.
Mamdani, mentioned several times here in my posts, clan is freezing rents, raising taxes to the rich, open borders, etc.
AOC can run for president, Mamdani can't.
The problem: inequality.
The solution for the clan European socialism with no border control.
The solution for free market supporters like me (a rare specimen in extinction), build fully automated factories to replace imports, stay ahead of China.
The final outcome: UBI, so both will converge in the end.
One with our ass covered from China's ambitions and lower taxes, the other European socialist model, all production and price fixing in China.
Yes, AOC is kind of cute :-)) |
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04-03-26 spal
The "China Divorce" ... chickety China ...
;)) |
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04-03-26 spal
| The coming Carthaginian Peace for Iran .. |
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04-03-26 spal
In the terminal phase of the 2026 conflict, the status of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island represents the final "chokepoints" of both physical and economic survival for the region. Here is the breakdown of the operational reality as of April 3, 2026.
1. The Reopening: From "Managed Access" to "Mother Duck" Control
Currently, the Strait is in a state of "Managed Access." Since the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, Iran has controlled the waterway through a selective toll system, allowing passage only to "Friends of Iran" (primarily Chinese and Russian-linked tankers) while using Maham-series limpet mines and Shahed swarms to block U.S.-aligned traffic.
How it will be controlled in the "Carthaginian" end-state:
The LUCAS Canopy: The U.S. is transitioning from clearing mines to maintaining a permanent "LUCAS Interceptor Net." These U.S. drones (which you correctly noted are reverse-engineered from Iranian tech) will provide 24/7 loitering coverage over the shipping lanes, intercepting any Iranian "fast-attack" craft before they leave port.
The "Mother Duck" Mandate: Post-reopening, the Strait will be controlled via Naval Escort Groups. No ship will be permitted to enter the Gulf without a U.S.-led escort. This isn't just for safety; it’s a regulatory chokepoint. To get an escort, a vessel must comply with the Maritime Action Plan (MAP), effectively giving the U.S. veto power over who can trade in the region.
2. Kharg Island: The "Hostage Hub"
The status of Kharg Island is exactly as you suspect: it has been militarily neutralized but economically preserved.
The March 13 Strikes: During the mid-March blitz, U.S. forces successfully destroyed 100% of the military infrastructure, air defenses, and IRGC-ASF command centers on the island.
The "Oil Hostage": As President Trump noted following the strikes, the oil loading terminals were intentionally spared. Kharg remains the primary exit point for 90% of Iran's crude. By destroying the defenses but leaving the "pumps" intact, the U.S. has turned Kharg into a hostage. If Iran attempts a "Samson Option" strike on GCC desalination plants, the U.S. will erase the remaining oil infrastructure in a single afternoon, permanently ending the Iranian state's revenue.
3. Implications for China and Asia
For China, the "Carthaginian Peace" is a geopolitical disaster. Since the Hormuz Stall began, China has been the only major power receiving "discounted" Iranian oil through the managed access system.
The "China Divorce": Under the new U.S. control of the Strait, China’s "managed access" disappears. To receive oil, Chinese tankers will have to join the "Mother Duck" convoys, which will likely require them to pay the $0.25/kg MAP fee—effectively a U.S. tax on Chinese energy.
The Energy "Super-Spike" in Asia: Japan, South Korea, and India are currently seeing Brent-WTI inversions and historic shipping premiums. The "reopening" of the Strait will bring relief, but it will come with the "Security-for-Exclusivity" bill. Asia will no longer be able to buy "neutral" oil; they will have to buy "aligned" oil.
Strategic Stranding: China’s massive investments in the Gwadar (Pakistan) pipeline and Iranian infrastructure are being rendered "stranded assets" by the U.S. drone canopy. Beijing is realizing that a "Blue Water Navy" is useless if they don't control the autonomous drone airspace over the chokepoints.
The Bottom Line: The Strait won't be "free" in the 1990s sense of the word. It will be a U.S.-managed toll road. Kharg Island will function as a "tethered" energy source that only pumps when the U.S. allows it. For Asia, the era of cheap, unaligned Middle Eastern energy is over. |
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04-03-26 victor
pana, i mean...
you never mention a bearded dude like mandani who, in my op, has a higher % to make into the white house than aoc.
instead, you keep mentioning aoc, whom i consider to be cute and harmless.
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04-03-26 victor
pana, quite interesting that you keep mentioning aoc.. again and again and again.
are you sure that you don't have a secret crush on her? :-))
i mean, she's cute, i like her.
AOC DANCING IN PUERTO RICAN PARADE
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7O_CEJyVF7A |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Vic, Savo ... from my own experience, iranians will eat from garbage bins before China folds on their control project.
So easy ...engage with Grossi and stop the war, but no! China is all in, and Trump is all in.
The winner? AOC. |
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04-03-26 panasonic
Savo, my 2 cents, gold outperforms other assets on the long haul, the right approach would be to load your excess of fiat money in gold.
Holding bonds is heresy :-)) |
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04-03-26 savo
victor... so iran is a murderous regime... we knew that...
the problem is the other side is even more murderous.
Didn't DT say... we will bring them back to the stone age?
who is them? iranian civilians?... hospitals?.. schools? (they have a special attraction with girl schools) |
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04-03-26 savo
pana.. i am always happy to buy good bonds at lower prices and a better current yield... but in the case of precious metals i prefer to see them going up and not get entangled between investors, algos and Comex tricks, irrespective of buying them at higher prices.
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