09-14-26 spal
Egypt is suffering the most acute state-level revenue destruction.
The $10B Revenue Drain: Egypt relies on the Suez Canal as its primary source of foreign hard currency. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi confirmed that Suez Canal receipts plummeted by over $9–10 billion as commercial container fleets diverted around Africa.
The Currency & Energy Double-Whammy: To keep domestic power plants running, Egypt was forced to buy high-priced liquefied natural gas (LNG) and refined fuel on the spot market while its foreign currency inflows vanished. This has triggered severe Egyptian Pound devaluations, forced rollbacks on domestic bread/fuel subsidies, and pushed the country to the brink of sovereign debt default. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Do they think the world owes them a 3.5% 30 year mortgage or somehow not realize that this was a magic trick and has to be paid for. Oh well. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Yes ... interest rate gets to 7% and people are losing their minds. No sympathy. |
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09-14-26 pillz
| I bought my first apartment with an 7.75% fixed rate mortgage 50 years ago .. |
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09-14-26 spal
| I bought my first house with an 11% floating rate mortgage. Suck it up people. |
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09-14-26 spal
| Companies like TORM (TRMD), Scorpio (STNG), and Hafnia (HAFN) operate massive product tanker fleets (MRs and LR2s). Product tankers see their ton-mile rates expand much faster than crude carriers during a Red Sea diversion because Europe suffers immediate, localized refined product deficits. |
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09-13-26 panasonic
Savo, not in USA.
Say family needs an additional room, but currently has a mortgage locked at 3%.
If sells their current home and buys one slightly bigger, the mortgage jumps to more than double when additional value is probably 20% more. |
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09-13-26 savo
| pana... housing is a dream of the past for the middle classes... |
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09-13-26 savo
carib... we already had the 3% discussion... spal said 3 I said 5 and going up...
not far from the mark
"United States producer prices increased by 0.40% month-over-month in August 2026"
In any case... the US entered already the death spiral.. inflation up.. fed behind the curve... foreigners dump bonds asking for higher rates...market/longer rates up... deficit up.. more debt ... more inflation ...more printing... more qe... and the merry round goes on...
The US is already there and there is no twitching than can solve the problem... they have to pay more interest on the debt the refinance and more interest on the new debt they issue to pay for the ever expanding fiscal deficit.. double whammy.
In this scenario the fed can not increase rates... no matter how many times Warsh says they are serious about getting to 2%...
The only ones that believe Warsh are the algorithms.
The market was much better when rational people would be the market... the would move rapidly and the government had not choice but to correct...
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09-13-26 panasonic
"My impression is US inflation did not really abate."
Mortgage rates are key, around 7% is a game stopper.
Buying a house has been the top "savings" vehicle for the middle class.
On lack of that, they probably spend in stuff, restaurants and trips.
DT has a valid point when says housing is the engine of the middle class. |
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09-13-26 panasonic
| Carib, what happened to center? is political polarization a side effect of social media? can't find any other theory that fits. |
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09-13-26 panasonic
| Spal, thanks a lot for the input, yes "after" Pacific Rubiales story, both entities are investable from what we discussed, tks! |
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09-13-26 amateur
3% inflation is better than 2%…to reduce the real value of public debt.
Provided the real rate does not continue rising.
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09-13-26 carib
| Swedish extreme right.. faring badly in today's elections.. |
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09-13-26 carib
Could open the way... for the Uk!
;-) |
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09-13-26 victor
dt.. thanks!
//
Carney impulsa la idea de convertir a Canadá en “miembro asociado” de la UE
La Unión Europea estaría abierta a la idea de conceder al país un estatuto especial, según el 'Wall Street Journal'
El primer ministro de Canadá, Mark Carney, desea estrechar las relaciones con la Unión Europea y está estudiando si su país podría convertirse en “miembro asociado” del bloque, informó este domingo el Wall Street Journal.
La UE, que en el pasado no se ha mostrado flexible en cuanto a las normas de adhesión, está abierta a la idea de conceder a Canadá un estatuto de miembro asociado aún por crear, cuenta el periódico, citando a funcionarios anónimos tanto de la UE como de Canadá.
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09-13-26 carib
Savo: AI might well be deflationary.
personally, 2% or 3% are both OK. |
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09-13-26 carib
La firma Ecoanalítica estima que Venezuela necesitaría una quita de entre 50% y 60% para que su deuda externa sea sostenible, según explicó Alejandro Grisanti, director socio-fundador de la consultora.
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09-13-26 spal
If this transaction occurs as outlined:
Instant Option-Value Monetization: Corentyne is currently carried on Frontera’s balance sheet at near-zero value due to regulatory uncertainty surrounding the license expiry.
Stock Reaction: A formal settlement and data-sale announcement with a major player like TotalEnergies would instantly add $2.50 to $4.00+ CAD per share in pure non-dilutive asset value to FEC.TO, pushing the equity decisively into the $12.50 – $14.50 CAD range.
Voodoo is my biz ... |
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09-13-26 spal
Patrick Pouyanné (TotalEnergies CEO) and Gabriel de Alba (Managing Director at Catalyst / Chairman of Frontera) operate with highly compatible transactional mentalities:
Pouyanné’s Pragmatism: TotalEnergies routinely navigates complex, shadow-tripartite political arrangements across West Africa and Latin America. Pouyanné cares about uninhibited, low-breakeven barrels. Paying a small cash transaction fee (e.g., $150M–$300M) to Catalyst/Frontera to purchase proprietary Kawa/Wei seismic data and secure a full legal release to clear the JOA debt liens is rounding error on a $10B+ development budget.
De Alba’s Exit Engine: De Alba is a private equity restructuring architect. He knows Frontera does not have the balance sheet to fund an $8B–$10B standalone deepwater development. Selling the data rights, clearing the liens, and exiting with a clean cash payout (or overriding royalty interest) allows him to distribute another massive special capital dividend to FEC shareholders, completing the monetization of Frontera.
Guyana’s Political Win: President Irfaan Ali's administration wants the northern section of the Corentyne block monetized rather than sitting locked in endless international arbitration. A press release announcing a major global supermajor (TotalEnergies) taking over the block under a fresh license framework—while accelerating production timeline via GranMorgu infrastructure—lets Georgetown claim a massive diplomatic and economic victory. |
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09-13-26 spal
| BTW my view (schpeculation) is that De Alba is on the verge of a deal that will recover the written off investment in Guyana (the Corentyne Field). My best is that he sells the seismic and well data to TotalEnergy and releases his claim on title. Total can tie the field into their absolutely massive development in Suriname (via a subsea pipe). I see the economics of this deal as a $50-60 million deposit and a 10-15% carried interest. Worth about PV USD 400 million. Shares will spike substantially on an announcement. I think next 2 quarters ... anytime. |
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09-13-26 spal
Notes on what happened to Pacific Rubiales (mainly for Panas) ... I just realized (I am slow) that my two major O&G related investments stem directly from the disintegration of this group. Note that the oil shock of 2014-2026 (oil falling massively) mostly did them in.
The Original Builders (Arata, Pantin, Ruttan): They realized that Colombia's security setup and opening of Ecopetrol’s risk-sharing contracts in the 2000s allowed private operators to apply Western Canadian thermal and heavy oil technologies to neglected fields like Rubiales.
Corey Ruttan (Alvopetro): Spotted that while everyone was focused on Colombian oil, onshore Brazil (Bahia) had massive, un-monetized natural gas reserves with high domestic pricing—leading to the creation of Alvopetro.
Gabriel de Alba / Catalyst Capital (Frontera): The restructuring architect who saw that behind Pacific Rubiales' bankrupt, debt-laden E&P shell lay immensely valuable infrastructure assets—specifically the ODL/ODC pipelines and the Puerto Bahía deepwater port. Catalyst wiped out the debt, shifted the model from drill-at-all-costs to cash-flow discipline, and set up the massive capital returns (like the recent C$8.34/share payout) investors enjoy today |
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09-13-26 spal
A lost House restores subpoena power, and ranking members are already drafting the target list: family crypto holdings, foreign gifts, insider trading, the IRS fund and tax-immunity episode, the laughable Epstein-file handling, the personnel purges, the use of the Justice Department against political opponents.
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09-13-26 spal
| 3% ish is the new 2% ... that is the reality - despite the droolings and gibbers. |
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09-13-26 savo
| carib... why will inflation abate? all inflation engines...M2..fed balance sheet.. credit... fiscal deficit...fed funds are all running at the inflationary speed |
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09-13-26 savo
rather than enforcing a strict 2.0% target.
inflation has been above 2% for over 65 months
the fed proclaims a 2% target.. but does nothing to achieve it. |
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09-13-26 carib
| Yemeni battalions stationed in the port city of Mocha were left largely unprepared to fend off a takeover by the Iran-backed Houthis on Thursday, with much of the force’s roster filled with “ghost names” of soldiers that did not actually exist, according to a Saturday CNN report. |
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09-13-26 carib
| My impression is US inflation did not really abate. |
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09-13-26 spal
Realizing that supply shocks cannot be eliminated by high interest rates without causing a sovereign debt crisis, the Fed may informally accept higher inflation (e.g., 2.8%–3.2%) as the new operational baseline rather than enforcing a strict 2.0% target.
olicy rates are likely to settle around 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed will avoid aggressive hikes to protect the Treasury's T-Bill rollover stack, relying instead on balance sheet adjustments to manage systemic liquidity. |
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09-13-26 spal
Monetary policy can no longer be evaluated in isolation from fiscal policy.
The U.S. has entered a regime of Fiscal Dominance, where the Fed's ability to raise rates is structurally bounded by the Treasury's interest burden.
Rate-sensitive equities (tech multiples, real estate trusts) will face pressure under higher discount rates, while hard assets (energy producers, copper, materials, gold) benefit as the market increasingly realizes that the central bank cannot fully stomp out supply-driven inflation without risking a sovereign fiscal crunch. |
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09-13-26 spal
| When considering geopolitical strategy there is nothing new under the sun - it pays to listen to the ancients. |
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