04-01-26 spal
The conservative Canadian province of Alberta is on the verge of scheduling a vote to secede by the end of this year.
Separatists say they’ve officially reached the required number of signatures, and momentum is building fast.
Odds are now sitting at 64% on Polymarket.
|
|
04-01-26 spal
| We need to formally request that Amateur start scouting land for purchase and drawing up land contracts ... |
|
04-01-26 spal
| The colores may still be able to survive in a remote corner of Paraguay disguised as menonnites. This is plan B. |
|
04-01-26 spal
| One of my sons is fluent - he will be my interpreter and the go between for the family in matters of tribute and bribe payments. |
|
04-01-26 panasonic
| Spal, if the party of the "rich" (republicans) survives, EU is fucked alone, otherwise we are all fucked and speaking Mamdanic in ~10 years :-( |
|
04-01-26 spal
| Either that or the Germans have decided to die completely ... which is a possibility. |
|
04-01-26 spal
|
04-01-26 spal
Ruspan ... get ready for the coming German/Russian "axis" (What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun).
Are you up for a consular position ... comes with a nice house in Asturias? |
|
04-01-26 spal
|
04-01-26 spal
Secretary Marco Rubio delivers a DEVASTATING reality check — NATO is now a “one-way street” and he dropped a MAJOR hint about what’s coming after Iran.
“Unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we’re going to have to reexamine that relationship.”
RUBIO: “If now we’ve reached a point where the NATO alliance means that we can’t use those bases, that in fact, that we can no longer use those bases to defend America’s interests, then NATO is a one-way street.”
“Then NATO is simply about us having troops in Europe to defend Europe but when we need their help, not their help, we’re not asking them to conduct air strikes, when we need them to allow us to use their military bases, their answer is no?”
“Then why are we in NATO? You have to ask that question.”
“Why do we have billions, hundreds of billions of dollars over the years, trillions of dollars, and all of these American forces stationed in the region, if we can only...in our time of need we’re not going to be allowed to use those bases.”
“So I think there is no doubt unfortunately, after this conflict is concluded, we’re going to have to reexamine that relationship.”
“We’re going to have to reexamine the value of NATO and that alliance for our country.”
Rubio just laid it out — America has been carrying NATO while “allies” sit on their hands in our time of need.
This is the wake-up call. |
|
04-01-26 spal
NATO is done ... so question time
In 10 years what will be the official language of Europe:
1. Chinese
2. Russian
3. Arabic
Wrong answers only ...
;)) |
|
04-01-26 spal
MATX
MATSON INC
Jones Act carrier ... fortress USA schtock |
|
04-01-26 spal
|
04-01-26 spal
AlVOF (Brazil natural gas) ... heavy (will likely add).
By the time we hit August, Alvopetro will be realizing nearly $13/Mcf—a massive premium over U.S. Henry Hub prices—because their QDC2 volumes are now hard-linked to 10.5% of Brent. With Brent crude surging past $95/bbl due to the "Hormuz Stall,".
Share Price Forecast:
Next 3 Months (April – June 2026)
Sentiment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish.
Catalyst: The drilling of the 183-D1 Caruaçu well later this month is everything. If they hit high-flow gas here, it erases the 183-1 failure.
Geopolitical Alpha: As the USS Georgia arrives and the April 6 Refrain expires, energy stocks with "Safe Haven" production (like Brazil) will be re-rated. Expect ALVOF to stabilize and recover toward the $7.20–$7.50 range as the $0.12/share dividend remains one of the safest in the sector.
(July – Sept 2026): The "Cash Harvest"
Sentiment: Strongly Bullish.
Catalyst: The $12.87/Mcf pricing kicks in. At 3,200+ boepd and $13 gas, the company’s Operating Netback will likely exceed 90%.
Target: If the Caruaçu drilling is successful, a target of $8.50–$9.00 (ALVOF) is fundamentally supported by the FCF yield.
Div may bump up by Q3. |
|
04-01-26 panasonic
"but the whole enchilada"
:-)) soon Chinese Lumpia |
|
04-01-26 spal
From an X post ... "I am told by White House sources that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island."
So not a taco, but the whole enchilada.
|
|
04-01-26 spal
| If the Georgia (sub) receives priority Suez passage on Wednesday morning, it confirms that the Pentagon is timing its arrival to coincide exactly with the expiration of the "April 6 Refrain." |
|
04-01-26 carib
|
04-01-26 carib
| Ohio class SSGN submarine spotted entering mediterranean in Gibraltar. Only 4 in that class. carrying up to 154 tomahawks and tasked with support to special forces ops. |
|
04-01-26 spal
BREAKING: President Trump will address the nation on April 1st at 9:00 p.m. EST regarding Iran.
|
|
04-01-26 spal
(Aftermath and Endgame)Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): If today’s deadline yields only token actions or nothing, expect U.S./Israeli de-escalation signals (Trump has already hinted at winding down ops without forcing full Hormuz reopening). Tech firms will evacuate/fortify regionally; markets stay volatile but adapt. Energy crunch eases gradually as selective shipping resumes and alternatives (pipelines, non-Gulf oil) ramp up.Medium-term (months): Negotiated ceasefire likely—U.S./Gulf push diplomacy, Iran claims “victory through resistance.” Regime survives, transformed: more IRGC-dominated, hardline, economically strained but intact. No popular uprising or fracture materialized. Iran retains enough proxies and mines to deter total defeat, but loses offensive depth.Longer-term: Regional realignment—Gulf states accelerate diversification from oil/tech reliance; global supply chains harden against chokepoints; U.S. tech/infrastructure security tightens. Iran emerges isolated and weaker, but the war ends not with regime change but exhaustion and shared economic scarring. The “drag the region down with us” strategy partially succeeds in imposing costs, but buys only survival, not reversal. Monitor post-deadline hours for any actual detonations—the tone shifts from there.
|
|
04-01-26 spal
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has publicly declared it will launch a “crushing blow” against 18 major U.S. tech, aerospace, and finance firms (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Nvidia, Oracle, Cisco, HP, Dell, Palantir, JPMorgan Chase, GE, plus UAE-based G42).
The targets are their Middle East facilities—offices, showrooms, data centers, and service hubs primarily in the UAE (Dubai/Abu Dhabi), Israel (Tel Aviv/Jerusalem), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. The IRGC frames this as direct retaliation for U.S.-Israeli “decapitation strikes” that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior commanders, accusing the firms of enabling targeting and espionage.
Methods are expected to mix limited kinetic strikes (drones/missiles via proxies) and cyber disruption, with explicit evacuation orders for employees and civilians within 1 km of sites.
Timing
The operation is scheduled to begin precisely at 8:00 PM Tehran time on Wednesday, April 1, 2026 (16:30 UTC / 12:30 PM ET). As of early April 1 UTC, no strikes have occurred; the window opens later today. The IRGC has tied escalation to any further “assassinations,” making the deadline both a trigger and a stall tactic while Iran’s depleted forces reposition.
Likelihood
Medium-low for large-scale success. Iran’s conventional arsenal and command structure remain severely degraded after weeks of U.S./Israeli strikes on missile bases, air defenses, and leadership nodes. Gulf states’ layered systems (Patriot, THAAD) and U.S. forward assets are on high alert and have already intercepted prior Iranian salvos. A symbolic or limited attack is more probable than a decisive “crushing” blow; full-scale cyber or proxy harassment is the most realistic vector. The threat’s specificity and evacuation warnings indicate operational seriousness, not pure bluff, but Iran’s regime fragility makes overreach risky.Implications and Expected Effects
This shifts the war into overt economic targeting of dual-use Western infrastructure, aiming to inflict pain on U.S. tech giants, disrupt Gulf operations, and deter further strikes on Iranian soil. Short-term effects will likely include localized damage or evacuations at threatened sites, temporary service outages, and heightened alerts across the region. Global markets—especially tech and energy—face immediate volatility; oil prices and supply-chain risks are already spiking.Longer-term, the move signals Tehran’s weakness: unable to match conventional firepower, it is lashing out asymmetrically to project strength and buy time. It risks drawing direct U.S. retaliation (already signaled as “ready to thwart”), accelerating regime isolation, and broadening the conflict without collapsing Israel or the Gulf. Civilian disruption will be limited but visible; strategic impact modest unless cyber elements succeed. Overall, it underscores a desperate but contained escalation in a war Iran is losing on the battlefield. Developments post-16:30 UTC today will clarify execution versus messaging.
|
|
03-31-26 panasonic
Carib, less of my worries now is how China built a vertical supply chain that doesn't charge financial costs between steps.
Capitalism requires that each step is billed & paid, add financial + labor + regulatory costs + taxes and here we are.
The cure "was" innovation + fully automated factories, that can only be achieved under a pro-private sector Gov.
Next Administration will fully open borders again, punish the "rich" with more taxes and ban robots bcz people need jobs.
Meanwhile, China will advance at 10x speeds.
The most relevant conclusion of what we've during the last weeks is how China won, and just took them one phone call. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| If the war were ending, the U.S. would not be transitioning from stealth strikes (B-2/F-35) to non-stealth, high-payload "carpet" capability. |
|
03-31-26 spal
adding that the US could leave Iran “whether we have a deal or not”
further adding that "we have already left, although we could be still there". |
|
03-31-26 carib
| on solar panels.. or, for example, cars. |
|
03-31-26 carib
| Donald Trump said late on Tuesday that Washington would end its campaign within “two or three weeks”, adding that the US could leave Iran “whether we have a deal or not” |
|
03-31-26 panasonic
| Carib, on solar panels or anything in particular? |
|
03-31-26 carib
| Panas: do you have an idea about US and chinese relative manufacturing costs? |
|
03-31-26 spal
China's proposal is regarded as a "Strategic Stall" by Donald (Quantum) Trump ... Washington remains focused on the April 6 deadline and "B-52 diplomacy."
So far Beijing has shifted to "Strategic Mediation." by using Pakistan as a front. |
|
03-31-26 panasonic
China and Pakistan present new Iran deal: Ceasefire for opening Hormuz...
Yep, it says China ;-) |
|
03-31-26 panasonic
Yep, and green will become my favorite color.
Next president will ban carbon, fossil fuels, natural gas and nuclear!!
Only solar panels, made in China (bcz making them in USA puts cucarachas in danger). |
|
03-31-26 spal
Greens must erect some statues for him.
Yes ... and then Antifa will knock them down.
A perfect circular economy. |
|
03-31-26 spal
https://x.com/TOzgokmen/status/2039076003750777332?s=20
Amos Hochstein ... very sharp - worth your time. He talks about the war, the motives, Europe, Asia, the price shock and status of the war. |
|
03-31-26 victor
Marco Rubio recibe a Machado tras prometer que Venezuela tendrá una transición completa
La reunión se celebra en pleno movimiento de la Casa Blanca para reabrir canales diplomáticos y económicos con Caracas |
|
03-31-26 patient-trader
Orsted flying +9%. If Trump keeps going in the Middle East the Greens must erect some statues for him.
|
|
03-31-26 pillz
|
03-31-26 pillz
|
03-31-26 spal
| Yes Panas we are both becoming masters of the new Quantum Geopolitics. |
|
03-31-26 panasonic
Spal, "out" means "in"!
Waiting for news they are in to buy cheap, bcz means out... |
|
03-31-26 spal
Ground truth from OSINT (as of ~19:00 UTC, March 31, 2026): Hostile exchanges between Iran and the US/Israel + Gulf allies are continuing at a steady, daily pace with no verifiable pause or de-escalation. Iranian barrages of missiles and drones remain the primary vector, met by highly effective Gulf/US air defenses. There is no evidence of an imminent end to hostilities, despite diplomatic signaling and market speculation.
|
|
03-31-26 spal
| Kuwait Petroleum Corp (KPC) issued a "Status Red" update 45 minutes ago. While the fire on the Al Salmi is out, the hull integrity is reportedly "compromised beyond immediate repair." |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Flight tracking data (ADS-B) and ground observers in the Persian Gulf have confirmed a sustained B-52H Stratofortress orbit directly over the Hormuz-adjacent coastline. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| The last two hours of OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) data, ending at 1:30 PM EDT (9:30 PM Dubai time), March 31, 2026, confirm that the market’s "peace" narrative is not just premature—it is being structurally dismantled by a surge in kinetic and logistical "ground truths." |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Developing: US military recommends all Americans in Saudi Arabia to 'shelter in-place.' |
|
03-31-26 spal
| 🇮🇷🇮🇶⚡️- Reports of a drone attack in Baghdad, Iraq. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| The more a proposal is observed the less certain it is ... |
|
03-31-26 spal
IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER TO AL JAZEERA: WE HAVE NOT SENT ANY RESPONSE TO THE 15 AMERICAN PROPOSALS, AND WE HAVE NOT PUT FORWARD ANY PROPOSALS OR CONDITIONS
Under Schrödinger’s Globalism although the may not have put forward any proposals the Americans may have received some ... |
|
03-31-26 spal
BREAKING:
US is currently launching ATACMS missiles from Kuwait toward Iran.
Trump ... the quantum effect |
|
03-31-26 victor
ruspan, of course you can. there are still loopholes around it.
they are in the process of making sure people in RU can't.
that's why it's news.
//
Telegram traffic 'dying' in Russia as Rostelecom reports WhatsApp already dead
Story by IntelliNews
• 5d
Telegram traffic is collapsing in Russia as state telecommunications operator Rostelecom registers a near-total disappearance of WhatsApp usage following a prolonged series of regulatory restrictions, the company's president has said.
Mikhail Oseyevsky, president of PAO Rostelecom, told journalists on the sidelines of the RSPP congress in Moscow on March 26 that WhatsApp had effectively ceased to function in the country, Interfax reported.
'WhatsApp traffic is absent altogether. Something may pass through in the course of X hours or days, but traffic effectively does not exist. So WhatsApp is dead, Telegram is dying right now,' Oseyevsky said.
Rostelecom said it was recording rapid growth in traffic on Max, Russia's state-backed national messaging platform, alongside an increase in voice traffic across mobile networks.
Russia's communications regulator Roskomnadzor began partially restricting calls on Telegram and WhatsApp in August 2025, citing law enforcement requirements. A broader partial block on both platforms followed in October 2025.
WhatsApp users across the Urals, Siberia and European Russia, including Moscow and St Petersburg, began reporting widespread outages from November 24, 2025.
Roskomnadzor confirmed it was introducing progressive restrictions against WhatsApp on November 28, warning the service could be fully blocked.
Telegram users in the Moscow region reported deteriorating service from January 16, with slow media loading times. Roskomnadzor confirmed on February 10 that restrictions on Telegram would continue as the platform had not complied with Russian legislation.
|
|
03-31-26 ruspan
Victor: "Tras el bloqueo completo de WhatsApp y a punto de hacer lo mismo con Telegram, "...
I talked on Whatsupp, actually.
Use it daily with Msk now, some friends there.
Some times VPN is required, today worked perfectly w/o it.
Choose carefully your sources :-) |
|
03-31-26 panasonic
Meanwhile:
https://restofworld.org/2026/unitree-china-humanoid-robot-shanghai-ipo/ |
|
03-31-26 victor
ruspan, talking to MSK with no VPN
//
aprende a leer, y a entender lo que lees :-))
|
|
03-31-26 ruspan
Victor: Just finished talking to MSK with no VPN :-) Shitty news you are fed on Ru, get used to it.
|
|
03-31-26 carib
In Isfahan, what was described as a large ammunition depot was targeted. A U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal that a “large number” of 2,000-pound bunker-busting bombs were used. Trump posted a video on his Truth Social platform showing a series of explosions but did not provide details; the official said the footage captured the strike in Isfahan.
Trump posted the video without any explanation
It appears the United States took care not to disperse or directly hit the enriched uranium itself, in part to avoid creating radioactive contamination in nearby areas. Instead, the strikes targeted surrounding infrastructure, sealing off tunnels and access routes, leaving the uranium buried beneath more than 100 meters of rock.
As with the earlier strike on Natanz, Iran’s claim at the time that there was no radioactive contamination suggested that the goal was not to destroy the uranium, but to entomb it under layers of rock, soil and concrete.
Most importantly, U.S. operational activity indicates a decision to bury the enriched material rather than attempt a prolonged and risky ground operation that would require a sustained American military presence inside Iran.
It is likely no coincidence that Trump chose to publish footage showing explosions around the facility — highlighting this strategy.
YTnews |
|
03-31-26 carib
Google researchers warned that future quantum computers may be able to break some of the cryptography protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets with fewer resources than previously thought, adding urgency to the debate over how the industry should prepare.
The researchers did not indicate such a machine exists today, but said new work suggests the computing power needed to carry out that kind of attack may be lower than many earlier estimates had suggested.
In a Google Research blog post, the researchers said a future quantum computer could break elliptic-curve cryptography, a form of public-key encryption technique used across much of the market.
Their latest estimate points to an approximately 20-fold reduction in the quantum computing hardware needed to break what’s known as ECDLP-256, a mathematical problem that helps secure crypto wallets and transactions.
That does not mean Bitcoin or Ethereum are suddenly exposed. But the researchers in a white paper dated Monday said the clearest defense is a shift toward post-quantum cryptography, or PQC, a newer form of security designed to withstand attacks from powerful machines. They also urged the crypto industry to cut avoidable risks in the meantime. |
|
03-31-26 spal
OPEC and US supply growth will likely offset Iran exports by June. By May, most Hormuz Strait volumes may have been re-routed.
via Rystad, Bloomberg, SP Global. |
|
03-31-26 victor
ruspan, aplaude a tu heroe :-))
//
Rusia intensifica la censura en internet intentando noquear las redes VPN
Tras el bloqueo completo de WhatsApp y a punto de hacer lo mismo con Telegram, Rusia está intensificando la lucha contra las redes VPN, el principal medio usado masivamente por los rusos para eludir los controles y la censura de internet.
El Ministerio de Desarrollo Digital está actualmente trabajando en un paquete de medidas para combatir este tipo de redes. Según publican este martes varios medios locales, su titular, Maksut Shadáyev, mantuvo el 28 de marzo reuniones con representantes de las principales empresas de telefonía móvil y de las plataformas digitales rusas.
|
|
03-31-26 victor
ruspan, others don't agree with you and are following sanchez' lead
//
La ultraderechista AfD alemana se alinea con el 'No a la guerra' de Pedro Sánchez
//
Italia niega a EE.UU. el uso de la base de Sigonella tras intentar utilizarla sin previa autorización
Los partidos de la oposición de han instado al Gobierno de Meloni a bloquear el uso de las bases estadounidenses en el país para evitar la implicación en el conflicto |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Israel will share power in the Middle East with Iran. That is my prediction. |
|
03-31-26 pillz
| yes Amateur, if Iran want to be nuclear, and the regime don't change Israel will fight again in 3 to 5 years ... |
|
03-31-26 spal
China has already drawn a red line around Israel and there is nothing (in my view) that Israel can do about that.
|
|
03-31-26 spal
But one day will we find that Israel's policies are just Israel's policies.
===
If you don't believe me ... ask China. |
|
03-31-26 spal
the ME future looks rather like a permanent war between Iran's rearmament push (even nuclear) against Israel attacks to prevent it.
===
Since when does Israel set world policy? Israel gets to veto Iran because ... ??
Now I do not deny that it has an intense lobby in the the United States.
But one day will we find that Israel's policies are just Israel's policies.
Should Israel find a way to live with its neighbors? And if it can't whose problem is that?
|
|
03-31-26 amateur
Pillz, "finished their military job..." seems a goldylocks description. With the US out of the scene, (in shame) and an angry Iran in control of Hormuz, the ME future looks rather like a permanent war between Iran's rearmament push (even nuclear) against Israel attacks to prevent it.
|
|
03-31-26 spal
|
03-31-26 spal
antizionism feeling ... in my own conception this should never be directed at Caroline ... but criticism of Israel should not be prevented under a shield that it is somehow "antizionist".
Israel is a state among states and people can fairly compare and criticize its actions. Claiming criticism and fierce polemical debate is antizionist is false. Personalizing any of this against Caroline is unacceptable. They are two separate things. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Ok ... Pilly thanks ... I did not know that she would judge NY essentially through that lens. I understand it as personal and that it does help understand the broader context. Thanks for sharing that. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| MAP ... aka "pay for protection" ... like it or not. |
|
03-31-26 spal
While headlines focus on kinetic exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, the structural reality is the rollout of the American Maritime Action Plan (MAP).
This is not a temporary war measure.
The Hull-Origin Target:
The MAP replaces traditional "Flag of Convenience" oversight with a Hull-Origin Mandate. By levying a $0.25/kg security fee (hint: this is a lot) based on where a ship was built (note), the U.S. targets the core of rival industrial capital.
Since ~90% of the global commercial fleet originates in Chinese, South Korean, or Japanese yards, this fee acts as a structural tax on foreign-built tonnage.
By making this fee a requirement for insurability during the conflict, the U.S. is inserting "Paid Protection" into global logistics software. By the time the "stall" in negotiations ends, the fee may be a standard, non-negotiable line item.
Nations that integrate their naval assets and intelligence into the U.S. command (e.g., Japan, UK, Australia) are granted "Friends and Family" status. Partners receive a discounted "Domestic Rate," while non-aligned countries face a 15–20% landed-cost penalty.
Again IMO signs of a Command Economy pivot hidden behind "War Risk" rhetoric.
The projected $1.5 Trillion in revenue provides the U.S. with an off-balance-sheet fund to recapitalize domestic shipyards (OBBBA) and erode federal debt through nominal expansion. |
|
03-31-26 spal
March 31, 2026
Donald Trump to the UK:
"You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!"
Trump in his own inchoate way articulates what underpins the MAP.
|
|
03-31-26 savo
| pillz... Caroline speaks as if Israel is not leaded by a bloodthirsty maniac. Other than that ...being a frequent visitor to the US and the UK... i share her views. |
|
03-31-26 savo
pt.. in essence... the us provoked a gigantic supply chain fuck up and inflation shock... did not achieve anything of substance other than destroying iran's infrastructure or forcing iran to destroy other countries' infrastructure... and now announces it may go home as of nothing happened.
I hope they do though and let the world live in peace.
|
|
03-31-26 pillz
Or wiould he leave the fighting to Israel and retreat to a supporting role?
Can that work?
//
Israel will stop fighting if
trump say stop... btw, Israel military say they finished their military job... |
|
03-31-26 pillz
Schpal, from my Caroline:
It’s a general feeling over the last few years with more visible protest and “antizionism” sentiment with sharper language around the cause. NYC always felt like a safe haven (so did London) but as a liberal Jew in today’s NYC it’s become less easy to navigate… being confronted regularly with the antizionism feeling (that at times is another word for antisemitism) that ignores history and debate is not a comfortable feeling
|
|
03-31-26 patient-trader
The Hormuz Strait will re-open, when the US is gone. There is so much dependency between the Arabs and the Iranians that the Iranians cannot hold a chokehold on the Strait. They all need each other for trading, money laundering etc. Besides they are all short on money and need to pump oil like crazy.
So oil must flow through the Strait once the Gringos are back home with the tail between the legs. |
|
03-31-26 ruspan
| Victor: The sad truth is that I completely ignore him :-) He is an insignificant puppet - clown, one of the present multitude. |
|
03-31-26 victor
savo, is it over?
//
what is?
the iran war?
recuerda que estamos en Semana Santa. |
|
03-31-26 victor
ruspan, The reality is that the US is NOT in control of the situation
//
so... do you now support sanchez?
do you at least recognize some of his merits?
|
|
03-31-26 ruspan
How can false stability mask significant crisis processes?
A month has passed since the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, where LNG supplies are completely blocked (over 100 billion cubic meters annually), and oil and petroleum product supplies have been reduced by a factor of four (from 20-21 million barrels per day to 5-6 million barrels per day). 3-3.5 million barrels per day have been rerouted through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and 2-2.5 million barrels per day is the typical outgoing traffic from the Strait at the moment.
Aside from the information noise, rising oil prices, and a slight decline in markets, it seems as if there are no consequences, but this is deceptive.
▪️ In addition to oil and gas, a loss of petrochemicals, fertilizers, aluminum, helium, and some critical materials from Middle Eastern countries is expected.
The system is still operating on cargo in transit, commercial inventories, and contract inertia, but problems will begin in early April, where the physical shortage of oil and petroleum products could reach 8-10 million barrels per day, as 4-5 million barrels per day is offset by the reduction in strategic reserves in the agreed 400 billion barrel plan.
▪️In the second phase, the Asian region, most dependent on supplies from the Middle East, will begin to experience a significant shortage of imported oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals, significantly limiting its own production potential in both energy and industry, intensifying the crisis in both industry and the service sector.
A critical shortage of one input component can reduce output by 50-100%, even if the remaining 90-95% of the supply chain is formally maintained. This is the "missing ingredient" principle, and it is this that transforms local shortages into a nonlinear cascade.
Despite ongoing negotiations to allow ships to pass through regularly to China, India, and Pakistan, as well as to other Asian countries (Malaysia and Korea), pre-war traffic is unlikely to return to normal in the medium term, due to both shipping problems and physical damage to infrastructure in the region, including ports (it is unknown how much export potential will remain even if the strait is completely lifted).
▪️In the third phase, beginning closer to May, Asia will be the first to implement restrictions on energy consumption, and inevitably, in the short term, Europe will begin to systematically impose restrictions on energy consumption at all levels, from households to industry, businesses, and government agencies, exacerbating the crisis.
Oil and gas are just the starting point here. The following sequence begins: loss of exported energy flows → contraction of refineries and petrochemicals → shortage of intermediate materials → halt in production chains → transition to rationing → investment pause → financial tightening, including through the collapse of financial markets and capital market paralysis → decline in employment and demand → crisis in the services sector → intensification of the debt market crisis with all the ensuing consequences.
Although North and South America are isolated from the crisis, the disruption of supply chains, production and logistics collapse, and falling demand in major regions will inevitably impact everyone due to inter-industry and cross-border interconnectedness.
We must not forget the desynchronization of global supplies, which is complicating production cycles in all key countries and industries, further exacerbating the crisis.
There's a 3-5 week lag from the start of the war before refinery cuts are implemented, followed by 1-2 months until severe restrictions on consumption are imposed, then 3-4 months until reserves are depleted, and six months later, total macrofinancial contagion and economic degradation occur.
This means that the crisis isn't developing linearly, but in stages. For a few weeks, everything seems under control. Then, suddenly, one cluster collapses, then a second cluster, then consumer demand, and then the capital market freezes due to the inflation shock, with no easing maneuvers from global central banks.
If the blockade drags on, the crisis will rapidly intensify (and it won't be avoidable). |
|
03-31-26 ruspan
I will keep posting the analisys I consider might be of interest to Colores.
There is no progress in stabilizing the situation in the Persian Gulf energy cluster.
The only reason the war in the Middle East matters and is making headlines worldwide is the blocking of outgoing traffic from the Strait of Hormuz and the continuous destruction of energy and port infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries.
As soon as Iran loses leverage (for whatever reason), Iran itself will cease to be of interest to anyone, and the war (if it continues by then) will shift to a "finishing off" mode against Iran (unless Iran crushes the global economy and forces Trump to a shameful capitulation—this cannot be ruled out).
In other words, without Iran's leverage, the war will become routinized, just as the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya disappeared from the global agenda almost immediately after their onset, being of interest to industry specialists, historians, and military experts, but not to the international community.
But while Iran holds the world by the throat, this conflict overshadows everything – any news agenda, even the trendy hype around AI.
What options are there for stabilizing the situation? If diplomacy fails, only military options remain.
🔘Development and implementation of technologies for near-100% neutralization of attack UAVs – not now, but in the next 2-3 years, along with strengthening missile defense systems (in the next 3-5 years).
Neutralizing "flying lawnmowers" is a trivial task compared to neutralizing ballistic missiles. The only reason the breakthrough rate is so high is that technologically advanced countries simply haven't addressed this issue. This will be resolved in the future, albeit not completely, due to UAV modifications.
🔘Dismantling Iran's missile and drone programs, along with its military-industrial complex, disrupting supply chains for technological weapons while simultaneously blocking military aid from China, Russia, and/or North Korea. There's no way to conduct analysis without intelligence.
🔘Iran is expected to run out of missiles and drones, but there's no way to estimate its available stockpile compared to the destroyed depots and the missiles and drones fired over the past month.
A military unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, in particular, and the Persian Gulf in general, is practically impossible.
From all this, it follows that there's virtually no military solution other than waiting for Iran to run out of missiles and drones.
The cumulative effect of the strikes will naturally take effect, but it takes time, which the US and the world don't have. Therefore, a scenario in which the world collapses faster than Iran collapses is more likely.
So what can we actually see?
🔘The number of missiles launched towards Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain stabilized at an average of 18.2 missiles per day over the past 10 days through March 28 (from March 2 to March 28, the average was 18.7 missiles).
🔘The number of drones stabilized at 71.4 per day over the past 10 days, rising from 99 drones on March 2 to 77 drones per day on average since March 9.
This means that the situation has been very stable since March 9, with no trend, indicating the low effectiveness of the US and Israeli military campaign.
All this does not include Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, and Oman.
🔘Since March 2, the number of tankers outbound from the Strait of Hormurz has been 1.64 per day, compared to a normal rate of 27-30 per day, i.e., 1.64 per day. A total of 46 over the 28 days ending March 29 inclusive, of which 31 were oil, 15 were liquefied petroleum gas, and zero were LNG!
Traffic has fallen by a factor of 17-18, with a slight recovery over the last 10 days to 2.2 per day, which is 13 times lower than normal.
The data is noisy due to transponder shutdowns and signal spoofing, but it's fair to assume that traffic is approximately 10 times lower than normal, or about 2-2.5 million barrels per day instead of 20-21 million barrels per day, of which 1.5 million barrels per day is Iran.
🔘The only thing that remains constant is Trump's mockery, buffoonery, trolling, and trash-talking.
The reality is that the US is NOT in control of the situation, Iran has stabilized its military pressure on the region, and the global economic resilience may be lower than Iran's stock of strike weapons before they are completely exhausted. |
|
03-31-26 amateur
Or wiould he leave the fighting to Israel and retreat to a supporting role?
Can that work? |
|
03-31-26 amateur
Will he abandon the whole of the ME to China?
And Israel? |
|
03-31-26 pillz
The president has told aides that he’s willing to end the US military campaign, even if the strait remains mostly closed, the Wall Street Journal reported. White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Exiting the conflict without a deal to resume the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would represent a major loss for the US. Washington is considering using diplomatic channels to pressure Iran to reopen the passage, or leaving it to allies in Europe and the Gulf region to negotiate, the paper reported. |
|
03-31-26 pillz
is it over?
//
I hope so, there is no other way imo |
|
03-31-26 savo
|
03-31-26 pillz
Netanyahu: 'Only long-term solution for Hormuz crisis is rerouting pipes to Mediterranean'
"Long-term solutions include rerouting energy pipelines westward, across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and Mediterranean, bypassing Iran's geographic choke point," Netanyahu told Newsmax. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the JCS Dan Caine will hold a press conference tomorrow concerning Operation Epic Fury at 8:00am EST. |
|
03-31-26 pillz
Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed,
//
I find it cool, as they did what they wanted , and Israel also, now it is up to Iran to decide to open or not to open Hormuz.., and if they stay closed .. it will be to the countries that want it to open to do the job ... |
|
03-31-26 savo
| spal.. extraordinary your Schrödinger Trump! |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Pilly thanks - it will be an interesting opinion. |
|
03-31-26 spal
The "Project 2025" Disavowal ... an example of Trump's mastery of political quantum super positioning.
Throughout his 2024 campaign, Trump claimed he had "nothing to do with Project 2025" and called it "ridiculous".
The Superposition: He remained in a state of being "unaware" of the plan while the authors were his closest former advisors.
The Collapse: Upon taking office in 2025, he immediately began implementing many of its core tenets, such as dismantling the Department of Education and ending DEI programs. By late 2025, he even boasted of meeting with its authors, effectively "endorsing" the work he previously mocked.
His later work showing quantum entanglements and increasing evidence of the related field of political decoherence.
|
|
03-31-26 pillz
How Pilly?
//
I will ask her to mail me the "how Pilly" and post it here Schpal... |
|
03-31-26 spal
Trump’s "Schrödinger’s War" is the ultimate quantum system: it stays in a state of both "total peace" and "imminent strike" right up until it interacts with a "large, warm environment"—usually a 60 Minutes interview or a rally crowd.
The moment he measures the room's applause, the wave function collapses: he either becomes a Nobel Peace Prize candidate or the God of War, depending entirely on which version gets the louder cheer. |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Schrödinger's Trump stated the operation was "very complete, pretty much," but also that "we haven't won enough." |
|
03-31-26 spal
WSJ: “President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran's firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”
Super TACO ... maybe a Burrito |
|
03-31-26 spal
Amateur - maybe - it hardly matters under the circumstances.
I personally can't stand the Saudi regime ... which probably matters even less.
;) |
|
03-31-26 spal
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇶⚡️- BREAKING: Iran has struck American university in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.
Large plumes of smoke can be seen coming from the campus. |
|
03-31-26 amateur
Come on, he sent Rubio to publicly express his disgust with SA for making an alliance with Ukraine! Putin was about to say the same…DT saved him the effort.
|
|
03-31-26 spal
Spal, publicly supporting Putin does not seem the best way to seek Europe’s help with Iran…
Where is the pilot ?
===
... Amateur - I missed the public support bit ... but the US green lighted the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian Oil Infrastructure.
|
|
03-31-26 spal
| JUST IN: 🇦🇪🇮🇷 Reported impact in Al Satwa, one of Dubai's most densely populated neighborhoods. |
|
03-31-26 amateur
“Marco Rubio, on behalf of Donald Trump, expressed regret that the Saudi authorities signed defense agreements with Ukraine “
Spal, publicly supporting Putin does not seem the best way to seek Europe’s help with Iran…
Where is the pilot ? 😨 |
|
03-31-26 amateur
“Iran strikes a fully laden Kuwait oil tanker in Dubal port.”
Was that one of the charlatan’s 15 demands that they had given in? |
|
03-31-26 spal
| Panas - yes. Let's see how much of the Trump program is turned into law by the Congress. |
|
03-31-26 panasonic
| Spal, China has a precious asset that Trump doesn't have, "time" :-( |
|
Board
