09-03-26 carib
Veny turning into Venezuela saudita, as Leo wrote.. could have bonds trading at UST + 50bp, for all I know.. after a few years, but not in 2027 (IMHO) if the 200BB debt is not haircutted somehow.
Given recovery is a medium-long term process, I guess a warrant linked to long term factorts could help making the deal more profitable. |
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09-03-26 carib
| could see (there is a not in excess) |
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09-03-26 carib
Savo: I also bought Greece very cheap (using the cash provided by greece itself) and sold it too early around 60. I did not expect that € rates would go to zero because of Covid a few years later!
So, I agree that is very possible that a well managed Venezuela could not see her bonds trading with yields just a tad higher than UST bonds. But I do not expect Veny/PDVsa to recognise the entire claim (about 110BB now)and exchange it for new bonds with 5% coupons.
Of course I would be glad to be proved too pessimistic.
40% of CLAIM would mean recovery on PDVsa 2022 12,75% around 90
by end of next year, an upside of 70% from current levels. |
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09-03-26 savo
I have difficulty imagining a recovery value in the next 18 months above 40% of claim.**
i remember feeling a hero when I sold Greece's 3% new bonds at 30 something having bought them at 12... only to see them climb all the way to 100.
we do not know the haircut... we do not know the coupon... we do not know if a warrant...
what we do know is that veni producing oil at full throttle should not trade above Peru, Paraguay, Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras...etc... |
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09-03-26 carib
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09-03-26 carib
To be clear: at the end of april, almost no investor (except Trump+gang) new that a deal involving Betacourt, the pentagon nd oil majors was about to be sealed.
Priced reflected expectations before such news.
If the news are positive (and I agree they are) prices should be higher, coeteris paribus, with the increasing claim being just a small detail.
Time will tell, as you wrote earlier. |
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09-03-26 carib
Leo: that is obvious.
All I noted, is that if the defaulted bond xx was priced at 60 on april 28 2026 and is still priced at 60 today, the implied recovery % of the claim would be lower today than on april 28.
It's not an issue of expectation on future recovery, but simply math. |
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09-03-26 leopardo
It is not a question of Claim or accrued Carib it is
a question of oil production and gdp.
The Last Us/Vnz Deal gives value and certainty to the
Price of oil /oil production warrants and gdp warrants
that will be assigned to bondholders Thus increasing
Defaulted bond prices.
Have I been clear?? |
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09-03-26 leopardo
It is not a question of Claim or accrued Carib it is
a question of oil production and gdp.
The Last Us/Vnz given value and certainty to the
Price of oil /oil production warrant and gdp warrants
that will be assigned to bondholders Thus in reading
Defaulted bond prices.
Have I been clear?? |
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09-03-26 savo
hann.. FWIW.. the rally in stocks is the other side of the coin of the increase in the money supply (M1,M2, etc) the fiscal deficit... the expansion of credit... the fed balance sheet (the famous ample reserves) and the size of the federal debt..
They go hand in hand... I doubt one will survive without the other... if you are negative on the dollar... you are negative on the debt... and if the US does not find takers of its debt at reasonable rates... the whole architecture will collapse.
Not saying it will happen soon... or that it will happen in what remains of our lives. But it may happen. |
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09-03-26 carib
| Pill: can't a good AI programme run that call/put programme automatically? |
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09-03-26 pillz
unless you cover the risk with opposite bets.
Correct?
//
yes correct , and mostly it is the premium that make the money ... |
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09-03-26 leopardo
Venny Is on the right path bond prices can continue
Climbing… |
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09-03-26 Merlino
I have difficulty imagining a recovery value in the next 18 months above 40% of claim.
..........................................
I agree however that implies a very nice 60% plus move from current levels. Not bad. Besides, any further move from here in that direction even not reaching those levels would confirm the positive trend and the practical cancellation of any downside from here, which imho is still something we can not yet totally dismiss. The trade at these levels is still a binary one. |
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09-03-26 carib
María Corina Machado, líder opositora y Premio Nobel de la Paz, exigió transparencia sobre los acuerdos en materia energética firmados entre Estados Unidos y el gobierno interino de Delcy Rodríguez.
Destacó que el alcance de los acuerdos todavía se desconoce y generan preocupación por sus implicaciones para Venezuela.
La dirigente planteó preguntas sobre quiénes firman el convenio, qué establece realmente, quién aportará el dinero, cuáles serán las garantías y cómo beneficiará a los venezolanos. Explicó que esperó varios días para obtener información antes de pronunciarse.
"Venezuela vale mucho más que su petróleo. El verdadero valor de Venezuela es su gente, que por las buenas es el mejor socio del planeta, y que jamás pondrá en venta nuestra libertad y la de nuestro país", expresó. |
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09-03-26 carib
Leo: claim increased by 2.5-4.5 points from april, so prices should already be higher by at least one and a half point an average.
On the other hand, higher rates on UST bonds make restructuring less easy..
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09-03-26 leopardo
Vnz 31 trading very near to May highs....let's' see
My take is that they will be broken if not tomorrow in the next few weeks... |
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09-03-26 carib
Pill: I guess the risk there is almost unlimited liability, actually limited by margin calls, unless you cover the risk with opposite bets.
Correct?
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09-03-26 pillz
| I am still in the biz of shorting puts and calls and make good money with it... the tax advantage is big , no tax in buying or selling , no tax on capital gain ... as the tas people consider put and call as a contract and not an asset or shares ...the only cost is max 1$ per option ... |
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09-03-26 carib
Merlino: it is now easy to say buying Veny/PDVsa at 10 cents on the $ was a good idea.. but the question now is if buying it at 50 cents is still an equally good idea.
For prices to move higher.. we obviously need more buyers than sellers.
The question, therefore, are expected recovery values, and exit yields.
It is not reasonable to expect Veny to have many billion $ to service debt in 2027.. but eventually, if they get production over 2MMB a day, and have good reasons for staying current on restructured debt, there can be a significant cash flow.
All that said, I have difficulty imagining a recovery value in the next 18 months above 40% of claim.
Just an opinion. |
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09-03-26 Merlino
The limited info I can get indicates Veni/Pdvsa bond prices are already very near recent April/May tops although not yet there.
Some senior commentators (i.e. F Rodriguez, politicians, bankers, etc.) have criticized the NABEP deal as highway robbery indicating that USA will get some oil at extraction cost, all the rest are just promises and that not much money will flow to the country/gov and even less to pdvsa.
Fwiw I do not see it this way and remain optimistic even accepting that USA will have her good take. I think that all current negative comments are holding prices to move higher.
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09-03-26 panasonic
"It's wrong 40% of the time but it's fast"
LOL, better than CNBC guys ;-)
Hann, I'm using coupons to buy directional bets, aka calls on similar things you are looking at.
Advantage: stop loss in place, markets are acting like "the one flew over the cuckoo's nest" i.e. GLD recent selloff
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Flew_Over_the_Cuckoo%27s_Nest_(film) |
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09-03-26 spal
BHRpD
BRAEMAR HOTELS & RES 8.25% PFD Callable
17.63
If it comes back in to 17 I buy more. I think div is safe and capital gain likely as Braemar shakes free of Monty Bennett. Very expensive to do that, but I think possible.
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09-03-26 CAC
Sorry
Or, if you prefer an ex-US , & NO WHT / No US shares exposure: |
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09-03-26 CAC
Hahn; I’ve actually been investing with pretty much the same spirit lately, solid dividend payers and cash flow.
I’m lazier than you when it comes to stock picking, leaning towards ETFs to do the work.
You might wanna take a look at this ETF:
https://www.justetf.com/es/etf-profile.html?isin=NL0011683594
Or, if you prefer an ex-US , & WHT / No US shares exposure:
https://www.justetf.com/es/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000QYDXKV5
Might be worth taking a look also at their underlying holdings just to get some ideas
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09-03-26 carib
Hi Hann.
I like your logic.
After all, all we need is just one or two good ideas every year, allowing for significant margins of error.
I like dividends when I can cash them tax free, but otherwise I prefer capital gains.
Bonds were very unattractive for many years of extra-low interest rates.Traditional Colores biz was brain dead.
The only exception, more recently, was probably Brasil, where REAL interest rates are still 8-9% (inflation indexed).
Venezuela is a case of resurrection, but I suppose most of the upside is now behind us. |
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09-03-26 spal
| Hann - nice posts and I agree 100% with your strategies. Keep up posted as you develop your ideas. |
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09-03-26 hann
09-03-26 carib
Hann: thanks for in the inputs..
--- welcome!
09-03-26 panasonic
Hann, tks for posting, pdvsa chapter will free sizeable money for most every colores.
I'm trying to lock 8% rates in decent names duration 20+ years.
----
welcome also.
imho USD over time short medium long term likely to significantly weaken against reasonably priced real assets (commodities, real businesses, EM, gold) over the long term. Debt is just too big so the only answer is currency debasement combined w trying to break up Ru, Prc, Iran (5th highest natural resources) and keep africa, indo etc in tow.
so am not sure long dated bonds are the right play.
they/Rick Rule say oil is still ok because of significant underinvestment past decade (global warming crowd etc), $300bn a year shortfall.permian shale has peaked hence the venz heist.
my portfolio strategy is 70% high dividend, value equities that are growing. Bear in mind that 19/20 of these are value traps and cheap for good reason. 30% i target companies that can at least 2x in 3-5 years. my port div yield is about 4.5% to 5%. i spend about 1/3 of divs. these exclude port appreciation. i'm able to grow divs at about 15% per year w biz growth, harvesting, redeploying. i have some companies that are yielding 20-30+% on cost.
i don't trade. i hold for years. am ok w illiquid stocks. if right, then these eventually become liquid and get re-rated. if wrong, there's an exit penalty. generally these companies are market leader at something.... i probably just do 2-3 trades year. it's worked over time. Ph max was 15% of my portfolion Now it's not even 1%. a dog mkt but i've done very ok.
anyway am lookng for ideas. AI is good for data gathering. It's wrong 40% of the time but it's fast.
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09-03-26 panasonic
Hann, tks for posting, pdvsa chapter will free sizeable money for most every colores.
I'm trying to lock 8% rates in decent names duration 20+ years. |
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09-03-26 panasonic
| BondbloX, will use try the screener, seems easy to use, thanks. |
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09-03-26 panasonic
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09-03-26 leopardo
| I do not use it for trading just for infos |
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09-03-26 leopardo
Carib I use it since beginning of 2025
I pay 25 usd per month.
I round it usefull…big big number of different bonds
you can follow…
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09-03-26 carib
BondbloX simplifies bond investing by allowing investors to track & trade bonds electronically – just like stocks. Founded in 2016, we are a team of debt capital market bankers & technologists, spread across Singapore and India, working to realise one vision: Provide easy access to bonds for all investors. The BondbloX Bond Exchange is the world’s first fractional bond exchange, regulated as a Recognised Market Operator by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
found the site accidentally.. |
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09-03-26 carib
| Hann: thanks for in the inputs.. |
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09-03-26 hann
I exited all PDVSA 2026 at net 39 and 2035 at 47. Traded up after I sold. The slippage is not insignificant. But it's ok.
Anyway it's mark to market. With interest, a modest USD gain over the years. Much better than most stocks in Ph, much better than my singapore friend's asia fund over a decade
The new oil agreement strips PDVSA of a lot of assets. Venezuela share goes to govt rather than PDVSA. Legally PDVSA has no recourse because these are sub soil rights - according to AI. I have no faith in gangster economics.
With my panic sale at the start of the war, I'm at 26% cash. My panic buy was Seplat which is up about 75% since 9 March. Best performing oil co over period. Div on cost this year will be 10+%. Not sure what to invest in. Looking mainly for high dividend with growth, high quality, value. And then some potential multibaggers for a small portion.
Interested in Nu which is up about 30% since i started looking this year. Not cheap though. Also 388.hk hk exchange mkt cap over 6 years but on valuation metrics cheapest since 2002. Both are 6x book. 388 owns LME (london metal exchange) so if it is sanctioned it will get clobbered. in addition to all the funds that will exit hkg. not impossible... hkex is 50x since 2002. eventually hkg might be global south/brics financial capital when world bifurcates completely
I feel US tech can correct 80%. Not sure i will wait if I can find enough high div high quality etc. What i see is high div - as long as it real and doesn't blow up - can survive severe market crashes.
Cheers and thanks to all. Without colores i probably would have exited in the 20s.
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09-02-26 savo
merlino... it did not materialize because the Trump kleptocracy wanted to have its deal in place first to replenish the SPR depleted by the most stupid war and in the process enrich their friends and family.
Once that was sealed... other companies were allowed to make their moves. |
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09-02-26 Merlino
What matters is the broad picture... various reputable international companies are planning significant increases in production...
.......................................
I would venture to say that what is happening now is what us and most everybody else was expecting to happen only a few months after Jan 3rd and that for whatever reason did not materialize in size at the time...a 4-5 months delay |
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09-02-26 savo
these deals are private contracts...between a sovereign entity and a private companies... hence details of those contracts are private and we know what they want to tell us.
If those contracts go through veni AN... we may get more details... but that won't be now.
What matters is the broad picture... various reputable international companies are planning significant increases in production... that is all we need to know.
The market is slow to accept this as Leo says while some investors make be happy with their unrealized gains and may choose to realize them.
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09-02-26 spal
More grandchildren coming?
===
Yes Carib - this clan will do what it can! |
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09-02-26 carib
Morgan Stanley's report on Tuesday stated that the U.S.-Venezuela Oil Agreement strengthens the outlook of?Venezuela?s sovereign debt restructuring, and encourages higher oil production, though key details are still unclear.
Last week, the U.S. announced an agreement with?Venezuela under which North American Blue Energy Partners would be granted a concession for 100 years covering 17 oilfields estimated to have 65 billion barrels in reserves.
The U.S. government will receive a 35% stake in the parent company, as well as the right to buy 20% of the future output at cost, and the first refusal on the remaining 80%.
Morgan Stanley has maintained that it is assuming a production of?about 1,5 million barrels per a day by 2027. This level, according to Morgan Stanley, would allow for a successful restructuring of the massive amount of defaulted government debt.
Since the U.S. deal was announced last week, Venezuelan sovereign bonds and those of PDVSA (the state oil company) have gained about 3.5%. This reflects a more positive economic outlook in advance of any restructuring talks.
Morgan Stanley analysts say the importance of the oil deal lies less in its specifics and more in the commitment it signals to Venezuela and other countries in the Western Hemisphere.
The report stated that "the announcements are positive for sovereign bonds, even though more details are needed. Especially on the fiscal impact." |
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09-02-26 carib
More grandchildren coming?
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09-02-26 spal
"son's wedding"
Congrats Spal!!
===
Thanks Panas - this will be the last one - 3 out of 3! |
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09-02-26 leopardo
Venezuela Saudita 2.0 Carib ….
The term “Saudi Venezuela” refers to the period of remarkable economic boom that Venezuela experienced in the 1970s, when massive oil revenues made the country as wealthy as the oil-rich monarchies of the Persian Gulf. |
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09-02-26 carib
| PDVsa/Sov gap.. still around 10% |
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09-02-26 carib
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09-02-26 carib
| PDVsa 2022 (12,75%) last transaction 1MM+ 43,75 |
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09-02-26 carib
| PDVsa 2021 last transaction 1MM+ 46.875 |
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09-02-26 leopardo
Pricing dirty
Bid 58.481x 100'000 20:42:33
Ask 60.323x 100'000 20:42:33
Vnz 31 |
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09-02-26 leopardo
Pricing dirty
Bid 58.481x 100'000 20:42:33
Ask 60.323x 100'000 20:42:33
Vnz 31 |
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09-02-26 panasonic
"son's wedding"
Congrats Spal!! |
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09-02-26 leopardo
| Junín-5 currently produces around 12,000 barrels per day. However, the new governance structure aims to accelerate and streamline the ramp-up phase in order to reach production of 400,000 barrels per day by the end of the decade, supported by annual investments of approximately $1.5 billion to be funded by the joint venture. Taking into account all of the Group’s oil production assets, Eni could eventually reach output of 1 million barrels per day, according to market sources. |
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09-02-26 victor
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09-02-26 Merlino
....heading out to Amersham on Friday for a son's wedding
..............
Have a good trip. Compliments, Spal |
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09-02-26 savo
| a good news would be exxon and conoco retaking the oil fields they were exploiting before Chavez developed his coke addiction. |
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09-02-26 carib
Italian oil major Eni was also poised to sign a deal on Wednesday to take control of another huge oilfield in the Orinoco belt, Junín-5, which contains as much as 35bn barrels of oil in place but is at present only producing 12,000 b/d. A person familiar with the plan said Eni would spend $1.5bn a year on the field, taking production to 400,000 b/d.
Eni said at the end of June that Venezuela’s increase in oil production this year had improved its chances of recovering an outstanding $2.7bn in unpaid revenues from gas sales from PDVSA.
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09-02-26 carib
America is a name, and the royalties should belong to the heirs of Amerigo Vespucci.
;-) |
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09-02-26 victor
carib :-))
change the name, though.
"strait of america" solves the problem.
gulf of america
lake of america
strait of america
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09-02-26 spal
they.... for the moment Spal's AI
===
LOL ... a backhanded compliment, but I will take what I can get.
Greetings from London, BTW - hellish jetlag, but heading out to Amersham on Friday for a son's wedding. |
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09-02-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
7.9 (+4.22%)
Obeying orders and justified - $9 is a short term target.
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09-02-26 leopardo
| Vnz\\Pdvsa plices stable\\\\\on the upside... |
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09-02-26 leopardo
| Vnz\\Pdvsa plices stable\\\\\on the upside... |
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09-02-26 carib
Is passage from the TRUMP strait subject to payment of a royalty to the Trump Organisations?
;-) |
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09-02-26 victor
| Now that we have it under U.S.A. control, should we change the name Hormuz Strait to TRUMP STRAIT??? Like America itself, it would be “hotter” than ever before! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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09-02-26 savo
the more the merrier... but it is from there that our bonds will be repaid...
The NABEP portion is for the US kleptocracy. |
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09-02-26 carib
| But Wright in CCS said.. 2MM B/D by 2030... |
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09-02-26 panasonic
"I care more about the barrels per day target."
Makes sense, but timeline weighs more in my decisions. |
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09-02-26 carib
| Savo: 50% claim haircut.. into new bonds with step up to 6%.. might be worth 40% of claim, if it includes some warrants. |
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09-02-26 savo
pana.. i pay little attention to "investment" numbers... new money? reinvestment money? local money? foreign money?
I care more about the barrels per day target... |
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09-02-26 panasonic
| Savo, Wirth's interview was key, but investment of $7B over next 5 years (pretty shy) most probably is related to political mine field, private money could take time and my question, how long is too long? |
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09-02-26 savo
Separate deal
the US deal is for the benefit of DT's friends and families...
Chevron, BP, Shell, Eni, Repsol.. are the ones that should pay our bonds.
Imagine 3mm barrels by 2028...at 80 would be 87 bn dollars...
If veni keeps 40% of that...almost 36 bn dollars..
I would imagine enough to service a debt haircut 50% with a coupon of 6%.
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09-02-26 panasonic
CVX plans to produce 600K barrels a day over next 5 years, $7B investment.
Separate deal, private and nothing to do with US Gov. deal. |
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09-02-26 carib
Chevron said Venezuelan crude, which can often be heavy and difficult to extract and transport, would incur total costs of less than $20 a barrel. Its new acreage sits adjacent to existing joint venture holdings.
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09-02-26 carib
for digestion.. I guess we need a few more details..
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09-02-26 leopardo
| The latest agreement hasn't been fully digested yet, Carib. |
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09-02-26 carib
| Veny bonds up again today, probably on the tail of chevron news. |
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09-02-26 leopardo
Need a little more patience Savo.
Prices will retest recent highs and push higher in the not too distante future. |
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09-02-26 carib
I suppose the US strategy is to stabilise Veny, milk her long term, whilst holding firmly by the balls.
The outstanding debt can be dead weight .. or a tool. |
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09-02-26 carib
Raúl Castro en estado grave por un accidente cerebrovascular
La información no ha sido confirmada por el Gobierno de Cuba |
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09-02-26 savo
| they.... for the moment Spal's AI |
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09-02-26 savo
| leo... i think so.... but markets seem to think otherwise |
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09-02-26 carib
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09-02-26 leopardo
| Savo I don’t think they want… |
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09-02-26 savo
| why do they want to screw bondholders? |
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09-02-26 leopardo
I’ m optimistic regarding Venezuela.
It will take time but it is in its WAY to recovery
in all senses economically and politically |
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09-02-26 carib
| Chevron = good news, IMHO. |
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09-02-26 leopardo
| 3/5 mln barrels per day within reach in Vnz.. |
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09-02-26 leopardo
The American oil company Chevron has announced that it has secured new oil fields in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt and plans to more than double its oil production in the country compared with 2026 levels.
According to a company statement, Petroindependencia, in which Chevron holds a 49% stake, plans to invest more than $7 billion over the next five years, with the goal of producing approximately 600,000 barrels of oil per day. |
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09-02-26 carib
Russia secretly aiding Iran in development of supersonic cruise missile technology
The program, codenamed C430L, began in 2023 and was arranged by Russia's state arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, in coordination with the US-sanctioned NPO Mashinostroyenia.
Unsurprising. |
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09-02-26 savo
| answer 2: when you leave them alone and mind your own business... |
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09-02-26 carib
| answer to DT: what you provide them with the required tools.. |
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09-02-26 victor
| I’m not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table, as ABC Fake News reported. I couldn’t care less if they sign a worthless, to them, agreement. I like our position now much better, with almost total control of the Hormuz Strait, and their economy totally collapsing. They are just playing out the inevitable. When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight? President DJT |
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