10-23-26 spal
according to this video family offices are buying gold hand over fist.
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Some people have all the fun - I am just stuck as a shitty landlord with some very sketchy stock positions ... but I am happy.
;) |
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10-23-26 spal
all this will feed into inflation..
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Yes - but this is a price shock and not actually what I'd call a true driver of inflation. It is comes from disruption. Inflation comes from too much money. |
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10-23-26 spal
| Savo yes - and I think insurers also. Concerning brokers yes - some incredible bonuses will be paid. |
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10-23-26 panasonic
Savo, I hope is not Norwegian family office :-)
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/norwegians-leave-gold-forest-fall-121620625.html |
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10-23-26 savo
spal.. on a different matter...
you said... Gold trades not working
that depends on which side of the trade one is...
i do not know whether this is true... but
according to this video family offices are buying gold hand over fist (as they say) filling exiting vaults and building new bigger ones.
Those people are delighted to buy gold at lower prices thanks to momentum algorithms ...
And this is real gold that they are buying not paper contracts... paying in cash... and storing it... gold that has no expiry date and will never see again the light of the day. It is gone forever.
Momentum algorithms sell what they do not have... pony up only 10% and the paper contract has an expiry date... one day they will have to buy it back...
I do not know how long this momentum trade will last... but for those that have no time pressure and simply accumulate... the lower the price the better...thus the gold trade is working just fine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7_nHgBqKTk |
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10-23-26 savo
spal.. on shipping... apparently not only shipping companies are making a lot of money but also ship brokers.
If i understood it correctly... a VLCC carrries 2mm barrels.
Companies charge 40 dollars per barrel... hence 80MM dollars... for a 45 days journey say US-China
ship borkers fee is ...... fixed 2.5%. Hence 2 mm dollars for the ship broker... for doing one ship fixing. They do several of those per day.
Now add cost of oil 114 brent... + 40 for shipping... + insurance... then refining margins... all this will feed into inflation... already at 17% PPI annualised...and 8% CPI annualised. |
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10-23-26 spal
The government argued technical difficulties, claiming consular databases do not automatically filter electors acquired under this specific law without manual case-by-case checks.
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yea sure ... |
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10-23-26 savo
| there was news of a guy that tracked an ancestor to the early 1800. |
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10-23-26 panasonic
| Vic, yep pls make the "nietos" list public, 77% are Muhammad and rest Ibrahim :-) |
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10-23-26 panasonic
"even if venezuelans and others are pissed at her"
Pissed at her true, but most pissed can't vote.
The talk on the street "vote Dems to balance power" and that sentiment seems to be moving the needle. |
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10-23-26 victor
pana, the sanchez govt in a nutshell:
the supremo tells both the ministers of presidencia & justice and exterior/canciller, to give them a list of 163k nietos.
those 2 idiots don't do it, and now the supremo has to threaten these 2 MINISTERS with penal charges if they don't comply in 5 days.
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El Supremo da 5 días a Bolaños y Albares para identificar a los 163.000 'nietos' bajo amenaza de multa y responsabilidad penal
"Incomprensiblemente esa relación nominal no ha sido todavía entregada a esta Sala", señalan los magistrados |
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10-23-26 spal
FECCF
FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
5.940.05 (+0.85%)
Second largest position - they remain with exceptionally low liquidity and trading mostly sideways. This is expected. This is essentially a listed private equity position. It is controlled by Gabriel de Alba (Catalyst Capital) - c.45% of all stock. It is now completely oil & gas plus port infrastructure.
They own 100% of Puerto Bahia in Colombia. The roll on roll off traffic is increasing as is container loads. More important is that they are about to dock a re-gasification ship to supply natural gas under a 7 year take or pay agreement with Ecopetrol. Colombia is falling quickly into a natural gas deficit with the risk of blackouts so this project has strong national interest underpinnings.
Besides that they are talking about building a gas fired power station on the port grounds.
They are financed through a 35% interest in the ODL pipeline that carries 30% of all Colombian crude. Their partner is Ecopetrol.
These units throw off total cash of around 30% of total company value per year so without spending they could payout in cash the total current market cap in 3 years.
I expect that they will sell out the infrastructure biz late 2027 once the gas project is proved up.
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10-23-26 spal
PARXF
PAREX RES INC
21.50 (+3.19%)
Colombian producer (they purchased Frontera's O&G upstream biz). Lifting costs are low in Colombia. This is the right momentum play on Oil ... as distinct from Alvopetro which is an all seasons deep value investment ... nonetheless I like this one now.
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10-23-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
7.030.35 (+5.24%)
My largest position. They are ready to announce drill results that hopefully will significantly increase the available reserves in Bahia. They operate their own (owned) distribution network so net-backs are extraordinary ... They are in the 98th percentile of profitability. I have run the numbers.
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10-23-26 spal
FLL
FULL HSE RESORTS INC
Add to Watchlist
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0.7802-0.1898 (-19.57%)
0.7801
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Tres difficile mes amis ...
Might take a schmal position at 50 cents ... might not.
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10-23-26 victor
pana, but maria elvira should win.. even if venezuelans and others are pissed at her.
the hill gives her a 76% to win, and polymarket a 66%.
polymarket was giving her an 85% chance to win 2 months ago, so her chances are dropping. |
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10-23-26 panasonic
| Spal, and AI issuance of fixed income sent bonds to the dumpsters. |
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10-23-26 panasonic
Vic, so going forward to the next chapter, me see increased political confrontation, plus AI impact on jobs will be felt more in 2027.
Left dinner is served :-( |
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10-23-26 victor
pana, the hill is now forecasting 51 dem senators, and 49 gop.
house: 237 dem, 198 gop |
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10-23-26 victor
texas, the hill
gop 43%
dem 57%
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10-23-26 victor
pana, yes, but i checked some polls, and they mostly agreed on the winner.. what differed were the odds.
for example Alaska, MSNOW.
D Peltola 49.7%
R Sullivan 47.6% |
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10-23-26 spal
| BTW - FLL (Full House) hammered ... potential for Chap 11 now. |
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10-23-26 spal
Exotica including:
Parex - PAREXF
Alvopetro - ALVOF
Frontera - FECCF
These cockroaches will go the distance. |
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10-23-26 spal
Buy side:
Gold trades not working
Rate trades not working (REITS, Mortgage trusts)
Tech Trades not working
Tankers sideways now
Oil producers in small pockets working.
Have reverted mostly to my extreme exotic hold outs positions and transports. Most momentum trades are fading now. |
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10-23-26 panasonic
Vic, one of the things I'll watch closely is accuracy of prediction markets vs traditional polls.
If my suspicion is correct, traditional polls people will be jobless soon. |
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10-23-26 savo
| Treasury yields declined 15-21bp in the largest one-day decline in yields since March 2023, beginning overnight amid further risk aversion in the EGB market. France’s widening had little catalyst, but our colleagues in Europe think some combination of an improvement in French fiscal or political dynamics, or ECB signaling on potential intervention, is required to break this cycle |
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10-23-26 savo
consumer confidence at a 75 year low...and it not for longer because it has being measured for 75 years...
tariffs ware a big mistake... pushed inflation up... the war and supply chain disruptions more inflation... hyperscalers borrowing like there is no tomorrow...higher interest rates... the fiscal deficit..
housing prices going down... mortgage rates up... consumer prices up...rents up... --->>> Trump's popularity at a historic low. |
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10-23-26 victor
i have been looking at polymarket odds of some key senate races, and it's looking really bad for the gop.
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north carolina - 97% D !!!
alaska - 74% D
texas - 67% D
maine - 67% D
ohio - 70% D
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10-23-26 victor
Norwegians Leave Gold in Forest as Some Fall for Scam
Bloomberg) -- Swindlers have persuaded Norwegians into buying gold and leaving it in the forest as part of a growing investment fraud, according to the country's banking lobby.
"Several" bank clients have spent "large sums" to purchase gold and then left it out in nature, following promises that "others will keep it safe while the value rises," Finans Norge said in a statement Thursday, without specifying the amounts.
It said the scheme is one of three fraud methods that banks are "specifically warning against right now."
Last year, the losses of Norwegian lenders and their customers from financial fraud totaled 962 million kroner ($100 million), the lobby group said. At the same time, the banks prevented fraud attempts amounting to over 3.5 billion kroner.
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