08-25-26 panasonic
Savo, if was me (just my personal opinion), enough ground to start a monitoring of Islamic population in USA, nothing different from what china is doing, close surveillance and immediate action against anyone "who feels unhappy" in USA, Mamdani included.
EU should join, but probably too late there. |
|
08-25-26 carib
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Russia aboard US military C-17 transport plane - report
A source familiar with the details of Ratcliffe's trip told The Jerusalem Post that Trump officials asked Ukraine several days ago to pause any strikes against Moscow from Monday through Wednesday. |
|
08-25-26 savo
apparently 10mm is the normal price tag now
WASHINGTON (TNND) — State media in Iran broadcasted a video that stated Barron Trump, the son of President Donald Trump is being “fully monitored.”
The video clip is titled “Where to kill Barron Trump” and it shows pictures of dorms at New York University where he attends school.
There are reports saying that the Iranian regime placed a $10 million bounty on the young Trump’s head, according to the New York Post.
https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/iranian-state-media-releases-video-stating-that-baron-trump-is-fully-monitored-scott-bessent-donald-trump |
|
08-25-26 carib
US offers $10 million reward for information on senior IRGC leaders, including one killed in April
The US State Department's Rewards for Justice offered a bounty of up to $10m. for information on five IRGC leaders, including Majid Khademi, who was killed by an Israeli strike in April. |
|
08-25-26 carib
| Found the text: utterly unreadable eurocratese. |
|
08-25-26 carib
Savo: I confess I have not yet read the text of the EU directive.
It's good for Bitcoins, anyway. |
|
08-25-26 carib
Buying back long bonds while funding the purchases with bills shifts duration, or long-term interest-rate risk, out of public hands — economically, a small dose of quantitative easing run out of the Treasury rather than the Fed, easing financial conditions while inflation sits above target. These enlarged operations happen to run through the final stretch of a midterm campaign. Debt management that even appears to follow the political calendar spends the one asset that took two centuries to accumulate: the credibility of the Treasury market. That asset doesn’t regain its value so easily.
|
|
08-25-26 savo
carib.. banks do not want to run the risk of being cut out from europe... they obey and will continue obeying.
In fact... banks in abstract do not make decisions... concrete people working at banks... compliance, risk management, legal.. they are the ones making the decisions. And while our generation of account officers were very sporty... the new ones follow the book and do not want to risk their jobs to help a client.
I see this as another nail in the EU coffin.
They start with this... if it doesn't work they will go after the client himself... They have the technology now to know where everybody is every minute... what and where he consumes... how he pays... Europe is choosing to be a tax and digital tyranny. Other countries are choosing the opposite.
|
|
08-25-26 carib
| Actually, the directive (that I consider foolish) forbids non EU banks to actively seek new EU resident clients without opening an EU branch. EU residents are still apparently free to open unsolicited accounts, and those already having accounts are free to keep them. I suppose nothing prevents EU residents from opening non EU accounts using local or offshore ad hoc corporate structures. It is unclear to me what effective retaliation can be taken against non compliant foreign banks with no presence in the EU, given the EU lacks jurisdiction to act. |
|
08-25-26 carib
| There is a grandfathering clause in that directive. |
|
08-25-26 savo
things will get more complicated "From 11 January 2027".
We'll see how things shape up.
But according to the text either banks open a licensed branch in the country of EU residence of the client or the client will see his bank account closed. |
|
08-24-26 pillz
he EU is forcing banks outside the EU to stop providing core banking services to EU residents, unless those banks set up a licensed branch inside the EU.
//
it always was ... I have a US bank acc in Irland ... |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
About Tetromino:
https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-tetromino-project-aims-to-fully-automate-delivery-stations-2026-8 |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
| Amateur, having options nearby I would never consider a place that far, unless you are huge fan of good massages. |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
| Savo, I went to pty few days ago and was amazed by the amount of people from EU and North America moving there. |
|
08-24-26 savo
pana.. i do not know what is coming... but the current order leaded by the US and Europe I do not like. Europe is turning into a tax and digital prison...The US spends more time planning wars and sanctions than putting the economic house in order.
***
the EU is forcing banks outside the EU to stop providing core banking services to EU residents, unless those banks set up a licensed branch inside the EU.
Note that what matters is your residence, not your passport — an EU citizen who is tax resident elsewhere is not affected.
If you want to avoid trouble opening an account with any non-EU bank in the future, I recommend securing residency outside the EU (we'll gladly help with Paraguay, Uruguay or Panama).
As an EU resident, you may already run into problems opening a bank account outside the EU from next year.
EU Directive 2024/1619 ("CRD VI") introduces a new Article 21c. From 11 January 2027, it prohibits banks established outside the EU from providing core banking services — including deposit-taking — to clients established or situated in the European Union, unless the bank operates a licensed branch in the relevant member state.
https://x.com/wilderko/status/2090593257201729785 |
|
08-24-26 amateur
Tailand was once an alternative Colores destination, is it still?
|
|
08-24-26 panasonic
| Savo, we...countries where we colores, unless anyone here moved to China. |
|
08-24-26 carib
looking at the railway map.. the Iran-China train route passes via a number of bridges and tunnels in Iran.
Those can be taken out by air quite easily, and would take a long time to be fixed (unless re-bombed).
I guess that route is not a very viable alternative. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Savo: excellent question.
Before DT, I used to know the answer.. |
|
08-24-26 savo
pana..Do we hold a chance?
who is we? |
|
08-24-26 amateur
China-iran trade may be irrelevant for hina, but seems very relevant for Iran.
If hormuz becomes more open, that changes the picture. A few cheap drones gave Iran the key, but it seems something has changed. If it is so, we could see wti under 70 and dt happy, while Iran stays enclosed. Will it this time work? |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
Meanwhile, China spending its money to develop more and better robots, factories, even humanoid competitions.
Do we hold a chance? |
|
08-24-26 carib
BTW:
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne says oil is flowing the Strait of Hormuz “very quietly,” and his company is largest trader of Iraqi/Qatari crude.
Pouyanne says it costs ~$20 million per VLCC per SoH passage (including return) in freight and insurance. TotalEnergies is buying crude inside Persian Gulf at ~$50-$60 a barrel as producers are “desperate” for lifters, making the process profitable. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| So maybe the issue is: will the USA cut kazakistan, pakistan and Iraq off US$ clearing? |
|
08-24-26 carib
Iran is using overland railway networks to export crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to China and Pakistan to bypass maritime blockades and shipping pressures in the Strait of Hormuz.
Route and Transit Details: A 10,400-kilometer transcontinental rail corridor connects Xi'an in China to Tehran through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Transit Time: Rail transport takes 12 to 15 days, which is faster than traditional sea shipping.
Pakistan Route: Special railway tankers move LPG across the border to maintain regional energy supplies.
Capacity and CostsVolume: Each train carries about 60,000 to 70,000 barrels of oil, which is much less than a standard maritime tanker.
Expenses: Shipping oil by train costs $10 to $15 per barrel, compared to about $5 per barrel via ships. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Amateur:
I would say, except for oil, that needs mostly to transit via Hormuz, I guess the iran trade is not very relevant for China.
I would add that there is wide room for putting up additional sanctions towards Russia, and even more room for actually enforcing them.
But I guess the immediate targets could be regional players.
Let us see how it evolves in practice, behind the usual smoke mirrors and fake tantrums tactics. |
|
08-24-26 savo
amateur... the US is run these days by a crooks, thieves, insider traders, or plainly stupid people... like uncle Bessent, Powell and Warsh.
|
|
08-24-26 amateur
What will DT do when China continues trading with Iran?
How about Russia, who will certainly intensify its Iran Trade, are there any further sanctions available against Putin? |
|
08-24-26 spal
but will he still be remembered in the year 4000?
===
I am certain I won't be hence the emphasis on fun. |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
Vic, exactly.
I side with Musk on this, China advancing at full speed and USA falling behind. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Scott Bessent said the US was expanding the scope of secondary sanctions on Iran as Washington sought to tighten the economic and financial noose on Tehran with a new threat to target its top trading partners.
The US Treasury secretary’s announcement on Monday included warnings that countries would be given “a defined timeline to shut down the Iran-related activity” and any entity “that facilitates money laundering or sanctions evasion on behalf of Iran risks being cut off from the US financial system”.
Bessent said the US was specifically targeting transactions in five sectors of the Iranian economy — digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping — for its expansion of secondary sanctions.
he also wrote an op-ed on the FT.. with few actual details.
|
|
08-24-26 carib
| SPAL: maybe.. but will he still be remembered in the year 4000? |
|
08-24-26 victor
pana, apparently, the job mkt will be shrinking regardless.
if people are easily replaceable, the sky is the limit re this. |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
Vic, true...but as in all races, you run or you concede.
If you don't build those factories others will, and job market shrinks anyway. |
|
08-24-26 spal
Yes but to me Cormac McCarthy is a lot more fun.
|
|
08-24-26 victor
question:
what has the avg person in the usa gained from dt's tariffs? |
|
08-24-26 victor
pana, focus less on trade wars
//
however, this is also v important, as it can negatively affect people's purchasing power.. as is happening in the usa. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| Chinese car sales in Mexico apparently booming. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Polling released on Sunday found three quarters of Canadians surveyed by the Angus Reid Institute supported the prime minister’s decision to pull out of talks, while two-thirds said that, despite the expected turbulence ahead, Canada would emerge “stronger”.
|
|
08-24-26 victor
| carib, i see.. yes, right. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| I suppose Phedrus is still more known in educated circles than Cormac Mc Carthy. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Victor: true, but Brasil has almost twice as many cars as Mexico.
The point, however, is not to rank countries, but notice that the US car industry (as the EU one) have lost many positions globally, for good reasons.That said.. there are many more "europea" cars in the USA than "american cars" in Europe. |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
Right now I'm in Musk's camp, focus less on trade wars, jobs creation, and concentrate in the ongoing race on AI and Robotics.
Certainly, building fully automated factories will hurt feelings inside and outside USA, my question to colores, is it evitable or inevitable?
China says, the race is on, so what alternatives do we have? |
|
08-24-26 spal
When the lambs is lost in the mountain, he said. They is cry. Sometime come the mother. Sometime the wolf.
Cormac McCarthy |
|
08-24-26 spal
“can kiss my ass, as far as I’m concerned”.
===
Domestic consumption only and to be expected. He is playing the game exactly as you would think he would. This changes nothing in the trade negotiations. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| superior stabat lupus, inferior agnus.. |
|
08-24-26 spal
answer to their domestic public opinions..
==
Yes ... as stated below in that context in Canada. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| Doug Ford, the pugnacious premier of Ontario, told local radio on Monday Trump “can kiss my ass, as far as I’m concerned”. |
|
08-24-26 victor
carib, Brasil is the largest economy (by far) in Latin America.
//
it's only 25% larger than mexico, in spite of having plenty more people. |
|
08-24-26 spal
"Canada is pretending to be a real country when structurally it is not"
This touches on the fundamental tension of Canadian political economy:
Canada’s economy is fundamentally tethered to the U.S. through energy flows, trade corridors, and security architecture. No election result in Ottawa alters the fact that ~75% of Canadian exports go south of the border.
Despite structural dependency, Canadian leaders must maintain the domestic political mandate of sovereign authority. A prime minister who appears to submit entirely to U.S. demands faces immediate political collapse at home.
This creates an operational paradox. To survive politically, Canadian leaders must publicly resist Washington's demands—which in turn prolongs tariff friction and delays necessary structural adjustments to continental trade rules.
This is how it is. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| SPAL: you are obviously aware that political leaders, in democracies, answer to their domestic public opinions.. |
|
08-24-26 carib
SPAL: no sane person would doubt that, I guess, but having a sane person in the WH would help.
Just a personal opinion, of course. |
|
08-24-26 spal
To be clear a US President's public approval rating inside an allied partner country carries zero weight at the bargaining table.
|
|
08-24-26 carib
| The first consequence, IMHO, was to cause the election of Carney. By all previous standards, the liberals were supposed to lose their majority after the flop of Justin Trudeau. |
|
08-24-26 spal
The underlying grievance is mercantilist, not territorial. The core message focuses on trade deficits, agricultural tariffs, and defense spending—demanding that Canada stop relying on US market access and defense umbrellas without offering reciprocal concessions.
Neither the Congress, the American electorate, nor any real institutional power center has any intention or desire to absorb 40 million Canadian citizens, overnight altering the electoral balance of power in Washington.
The "annexation" line is a negotiation tactic designed to provoke a domestic political reaction, not a policy roadmap. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Theater has consequences..
Donald Trump is highly unpopular in Canada, with his personal approval ratings hovering at historically low levels between 14% and 16%. The vast majority of Canadians—roughly 75% to 79%—view him unfavourably. This strong public disapproval has driven overall Canadian confidence in U.S. leadership and reliability to near-historic lows, particularly due to intense friction over trade policies and aggressive rhetoric directed at the country. |
|
08-24-26 spal
| There is NO need or actual desire to annex Canada - it is theatre and Trump specializes in this ... I think that is obvious. |
|
08-24-26 pillz
| when was the time that I bought air Canada debt , and made a big profit, I think it is 25 years ago ... |
|
08-24-26 spal
| Since when did you start confusing flamboyant transactional theater for actual geopolitical strategy? |
|
08-24-26 carib
| Spal: Of course, I would welcome a US canadian solid trade agreement, but this is not the point. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| Spal: maybe so.. but canadians flying business class to caribbean islands tend to have capital.. |
|
08-24-26 spal
The US and Canada will land on a cooperation agreement because their supply chains, energy grids, financial markets, and defense structures are structurally interdependent.
This is where the rubber hits the road. |
|
08-24-26 carib
SPAL: the periodic update of a trade treaty is a normal thing.
Proposing to annex your trading partner and insulting it by denying it is a sovereign country begets the easily anticipated outcome.Can you imagine the German government criticising the french budget deficit by threatening to annex France? |
|
08-24-26 spal
| Carib - I will only say that I have more relatively resting financially on Canadian companies than most of your interlocutors. |
|
08-24-26 spal
| Transactional mercantilism for ideological nationalism ... this is where it separates. |
|
08-24-26 carib
SPAL: here we disagree on the expected outcome. But as you wrote.. time will tell.
Ultimately the political choices are determined by people, not machines.
Ever recently spoke to a number of canadians? I frequently fly Air Canada, and often chat with fellow travellers.. some are americans pretending to be canadians to avoid criticism. most are canadinas with strong anti Trump views. |
|
08-24-26 spal
BTW the USMCA remains legally in force, but it is undergoing a structural overhaul driven by the mandatory 6-year joint review mechanisms built into the original 2020 text.
But join the chorus ... it is popular and will win you friends.
;) |
|
08-24-26 carib
The point is that "nationalism" begets other "nationalisms".
I remember in the European Parliament when french and german nationalists tried to set up a common group. Ugly divorce followed fast. |
|
08-24-26 spal
| Focusing on the "hurt feelings" of trade rhetoric mistakes the noise of negotiation for the substance of the relationship. Now as a former diplomat you'd recognize this. |
|
08-24-26 spal
Trade is NOT sustained by goodwill Carib - trade perimeters are governed by hard economic national self-interest and asymmetry of leverage. If the US imposes tariffs to re-shore critical industries and block Chinese state-subsidized overcapacity (EVs, steel, battery materials), it must compel its immediate neighbors to enforce equivalent barriers. It must. Carney speaks only to his political base in fighting this. He must concede.
And time will show this - agreed. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| SPAL: that is correct, but Trump destroyed the trade agreement... |
|
08-24-26 carib
Fact: Brasil is the largest economy (by far) in Latin America.
They build their own planes (EmBrAer) which are quite good, but never managed to develop an autonomous car industry (except for the failed Gurgel project, under the military regime. They mostly had locally assembled european (VW and FIAT) and US cars.
Now they mostly have locally assembled Chinese cars. They are just cheaper than EU-US competing models. Mostly hybrids.
Tesla was a US success story.. but Trump anti-green policies are bad for Tesla, and now the chinese deliver better alternatives
(I had a Tesla X for years)... |
|
08-24-26 spal
Brazil as far as I know is not part of the USMCA. It is not fully integrated into the US car market like Canada - it is stand alone. Thus it is very different. Brazil has trade autonomy in this regard - Canada does not.
|
|
08-24-26 carib
Spal: the observation is correct.. but still.. spitting in the face of every ally.. eventually bears a cost.
Time will tell the price. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Panas: BYD sells cars in Brasil.. assembling them in Brasil.
Same should be for Canada.
tariffs on assembled cars do the trick, as well as inter-governamental agreements. |
|
08-24-26 spal
Criticisms of US sovereign debt routinely isolate federal public figures while completely ignoring total system leverage. When the full liabilities of China's state-directed banking system, local government financing vehicles, and corporate state enterprises are consolidated, China’s leverage is structurally higher, less transparent, and far less flexible than that of the US.
===
But please proceed as normal ... |
|
08-24-26 spal
Canada is caught in the crossfire of the US-China decoupling.
===
End of story. |
|
08-24-26 spal
This is the kind of thing that a Brookfield acolyte would cook up.
The maneuver carries the distinct signature of the Brookfield asset management playbook: massive infrastructure financial engineering, asset-level ring-fencing, and high-stakes macro positioning.
Mark Carney’s background as a former Brookfield executive (he served as Vice Chair and Head of Transition Investing) makes this strategic playbook almost second nature. When you view Canada's trade and infrastructure posture through a Brookfield-style private equity lens, the mechanics behind the policy become glaringly obvious. |
|
08-24-26 spal
| The US Trade Representative (USTR) views any Canadian tariff concession to Beijing as a structural breach of continental industrial security. Washington’s fear is that Canada becomes an assembly or re-export corridor—allowing Chinese components, green tech, battery minerals, and specialized steel to be lightly processed, stamped with Canadian Rules of Origin under USMCA, and moved tariff-free into the US. |
|
08-24-26 spal
Yes guys the issue is that globalist dickwads like Carney want to use Canada as a re-export platform for China.
But there is a small issue that we are in a global trade war. |
|
08-24-26 spal
The US debt issue remains over blown, but it is a good one for people to focus their free floating anxiety and generalized anti-Americanism on.
As I stated the next debt is 32 trillion - this brings the debt ratio in line with the G7 average.
The debt is natural to the extent of 2 well known effects. The Triffen Dilemma and the fact that the US is a consumer economy.
Based on te fact that the debt is in fiat and the US is known to be a dynamic and flexible place the criticism is over played.
Yes it is due some moderation.
BTW when the indebtedness of China's bank system is taken into account their debt ratios are higher than the US.
|
|
08-24-26 panasonic
"who will employ US workers"
Certainly not Canada :-))) |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
"will be employed by BYD"
Their problem, BYD will probably do better exporting cars than making them in Canada.
|
|
08-24-26 victor
carib, who will employ US workers?
//
right.. huir del fuego para caer en las brasas :-)) |
|
08-24-26 carib
|
08-24-26 carib
| PS: if all US factories become fully automated, including those producing the necessary robots.. who will employ US workers? |
|
08-24-26 carib
panas: rather... canadian workers employed by Ford and GM.. will be employed by BYD.
It would be imprudent IMHO for China so set too many factories in the USA.. as long as US policy vs China remains unpredictable |
|
08-24-26 panasonic
The counter argument to that: build fully automated factories in USA.
True you won't create desired number of jobs here, but Canadian workers will lose theirs. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Savo: some voters are apparently unable to grasp the concept.
We shall see how the majority votes in November. |
|
08-24-26 savo
| DT seems unable to understand that tariffs are paid by ... americans. |
|
08-24-26 carib
|
08-24-26 carib
Trump is increasing tariffs on "canadian cars" to 50%.
I do not know what a "canadian car" actually is. I know of american cars manufactured in Canada.
I wonder if Canada would not be better served by allowing Chinese car companies to produce cars in Canada, given chinese cars have now a better price/quality ratio than the american ones, in average.. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| Savo: governments can tax income and private assets, if they so decide.Trump likes the concept of taxing vassals. |
|
08-24-26 savo
FWIW.. i do not think governments run a balance sheet with assets and liabilities.
As liabilities are real and assets are mostly iliquid and politically unsalable
They have debts and they have tax income...some have the possibility to also print money to a limit.
But no more than that... so saying the US is ok because its armed forces have 60 trn of equipment and property which is more than the debt is difficult to process.
Add to that financial repression and foreign bondholders are steadily running for the exits... and so much so that the Uncle Bessent had to offer Japan a repo.
The interesting thing is that the US remains a center of innovation... so foreigners continue pouring money into US stocks... so yes money goes out but money goes also in.
As for AI... it will increase productivity and growth but the debt has to be financed.. also it will increase poverty as people will lose their jobs. So benefits will have to go up to avoid a revolution.
|
|
08-24-26 carib
Savo: it is well known I very much dislike the current US administration, and do not expect them to run a sound fiscal policy. The question, however, is if the USA is still solvent.
The problem, IMHO, remains political. |
|
08-24-26 savo
If inflation in the meantime dilutes real debt servicing cost
we do not know if that is the case... it is a dynamic equation...
on the one hand the real value of the debt goes down... but on the other hand the expenditure side of the budget goes up ...the net result is unknow without knowing a) the rate of interest the market asks to renew the debt (unless you want the fed to print 100% of all maturities) b) the rate of growth of the economy c) the rate of growth of the expenditure to fund endless wars, endless pork, endless enrichment of the friends and family of the president.
Unless we know the net effect of the whole thing on the budget deficit we do not know if improves or deteriorates the situation.
Balancing the budget is outside the realm of possibilities with this administration. given that it would trigger a recession and a financial crisis... with DT is not willing to stand. |
|
08-24-26 carib
| Ps: the key US asset.. is the power to tax. |
|
08-24-26 carib
Savo: the USA owes dollars, which is a fiat currency. It does not have to sell any assets to service debt, but just to print more dollars. If they bring back fiscal balance.. no problem. Otherwise the problem will be the need to pay higher rates, meaning spending a bigger share of revenue to service debt. If inflation in the meantime dilutes real debt servicing cost.. the problem will be inflation, rather than fiscal.
Does that mean the US can run both fiscal and BoT deficits for ever, at increasing rates? not without a cost, IMHO. |
|
08-24-26 savo
Bessent could tap near $1 trillion Treasury General Account to fund bond buybacks, sources said
Published Mon, Aug 24 2026
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/24/bessent-1-trillion-treasury-general-account-bond-buybacks.html |
|
08-24-26 savo
The US is solvent
how is that measured?
what are the assets?
I am sure the US navy costed a lot of trillions... but can it be sold to pay the debt? can the US borrow against the US navy?
The embassy in London is worth a few billions... will the US sell it to repay debt? i doubt it... can they borrow against it? they probably can... but then it is more debt... not less assets and less debt?
what else can they sell to repay the debt and claim to be solvent? ports? bridges? military bases abroad? space satellites?
Print to repay the debt? That is what they are already doing... that is the Fed's balance sheet... the other side of the "ample reserves" coin.
Tax revenues automatically scale up with inflation ..yes... but also do expenses... whatever the US gov buys costs more and probably more than what it collects extra due to inflation... hence the larger deficits and the larger than budgeted borrowing....2 trn forecasted... 3 tr real.
|
|
08-24-26 carib
Spal: public debt owed to US persons is an internal issue, after all... funds to service said debt come from taxes levied on said persons.. so is ultimately a fiscal problem.
Public debt owed to non resident persons and denominated in US currency can be serviced by printing said currency, and is small % of US wealth.
The US is solvent, but this does not tell us about the interest rate Mr Market will ask for.
Savo is correct that the trajectory is what matters, IMHO. |
|
08-24-26 savo
No counter arguments involving Santanists or Draculas will be accepted ...
spal... the problem is not the stock of debt but... as they say today.. the trajectory.
Over the last 12 months the debt grew more than 3 trn dollars.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN/
That is the real deficit, ex-post.
Not the one forecasted in the budget ex-ante.
That trajectory is unsustainable for the simple reason that buyers do not care about assets of the private sector or assets of the public sector which nobody knows where they are, who manages them or what is their market value.
Lenders look at the US federal cash flow... and that cash flow looks horrible. So they are selling treasuries...and the US is running out of lenders.
|
|
08-24-26 spal
Iran is getting squeezed from 3 directions
The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, Iran’s oil exports are reportedly nearing zero, and its own political leadership is now openly arguing over whether the war can continue.
Nearly 200 vessels passed through Hormuz last week, a roughly 400% increase in two weeks, while U.S. pressure and the UAE’s suspension of trade are tightening the economic noose.
President Masoud Pezeshkian says the war must eventually end. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf is warning that military power means little if Iran’s economy collapses.
Tehran may still have missiles, but its leverage is getting harder to convert into an exit.
====
|
|
08-24-26 spal
No counter arguments involving Santanists or Draculas will be accepted ...
;)) |
|
08-24-26 spal
US Debt stack is NOT 40 trillion - it is 32T as 8 of the 40 headline number is owed to the social security trust fund. This 8 trillion is internal and has no bearing on capital markets or rates.
Now real interest rates in the US are NOT higher than the real growth rate of the economy. Rising rates are actually an indication of growth and activity.
The weighted average interest rate across all outstanding US debt is significantly lower than current long-term yields.
Rising interest rates usually accompany nominal inflation. While inflation raises the cost of new borrowing, it simultaneously devalues the existing debt stock relative to GDP.
Tax revenues automatically scale up with inflation (higher nominal incomes, higher sales, corporate revenues). The existing $32 trillion debt principal stays fixed in nominal terms.
Inflation quietly burns away the real burden of historical debt.
A nation with $160+ trillion in private wealth and $150+ trillion in federal natural assets holding $32 trillion in market debt is fundamentally solvent.
====
Sorry ... merry christmas
|
|
Board
