07-04-26 Merlino
Carib, Yes
However it is needed "only" about an additional 77% appreciation to get the same $ amount that the previous 320% appreciation you have calculated.
52 x 1.77 = 92 = 52 + 40 = 12 + 40 + 40
An additional 77% appreciation may look excessive however it is "only" 92/215 = 43% of total claim (at future mkt value) ...not preposterous I would say
I know nothing about the "ins" of this situation however would like to be corrected if my rough assumptions look out of the rational.
I would venture to say they are not as it looks rather clear/visible that out of traders/speculators current holders do not seem to be eagerly selling/distributing |
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07-04-26 victor
| En un sofocante ambiente por la ola de calor extremo que azota la costa este de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump se dispone a dar esta noche un largo discurso a sus seguidores en Washington para celebrar el 250º aniversario de la firma de la Declaración de Independencia del país en Filadelfia. Pese a las indicaciones del Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, que advirtió a la ciudadanía que debería evitar periodos prolongados al exterior en la capital, Trump está decidido, a sus 80 años, a desafiar al tiempo: “El 4 de julio hará aproximadamente 107 grados (41 grados Celsius) y yo voy a ir”, dijo el miércoles, durante la inauguración de la Biblioteca Presidencial Theodore Roosevelt en Dakota del Norte. “Y voy a dar un discurso realmente largo solo para demostrar que puedo hacer cualquier cosa”. |
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07-03-26 victor
20 million!!
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The first day of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed with family members at the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, has concluded.
More than 20 million people are expected in Tehran for the funeral over the next several days |
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07-03-26 carib
Merlino: hypothetically, someone aware in advance of US long term plans, could have bought millions of PDVsa 2022 @ about 12 cents on the $ one year ago, and sold them back @ 52 cents on the dollar last May, making an easy 320% profit.
If a very friendly and credible restructuring offer was to be made, given the claim for the said bond is 215, it could be imaginable that an additional 100% profit could be made, but an additional 300% potential profit is not easy to imagine.
That is the point I was making.
Advance knowledge of political/military intentions provided an easy way to triple your money fast.
Advance knowledge of intentions concerning a possible restructuring could provide guidance for further profits by holding or shorting bonds.
It is not advisable to play cards when some players know the content of the deck in advance, and others do not (unless you are the cheating one).
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07-03-26 Merlino
Potential further upside is objectively more limited.
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Imho true in % however not necessarily so in actual $ (holding from the lows) which is what finally counts |
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07-03-26 carib
Savo: I just note the big move up of Veny bonds happened between the time Trump took office and May 2026.
Potential further upside is objectively more limited. |
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