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01-22-26 spal
| RCAT ... blasting to new levels ... shows how regime affiliated stocks are leading right now. |
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01-22-26 spal
MATX
MATSON INC
159.774.06 (+2.61%)
Adding. Jone Act US shipping co ... command economy play.
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01-22-26 spal
Ucore Rare Metals (UURAF) is strategically critical to the United States because it is advancing domestic rare earth processing, a capability the U.S. lacks and China currently dominates.
Ucore has secured substantial, non-repayable funding from the U.S. Department of Defense totaling over $22.4 million under its Other Transaction Agreement to build and scale commercial rare earth refining using its RapidSX™ technology at the Strategic Metals Complex in Louisiana.
The project has also received ongoing state incentives from Louisiana Economic Development, including tax and infrastructure support, and Canadian federal backing for technology development — indicating cross-border government facilitation of strategic minerals supply chains.
Recent policy shifts, like executive actions and Pentagon investments in rare earth infrastructure, further underline the U.S. government’s commitment to reducing reliance on Chinese processing and reinforcing national security. |
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01-22-26 spal
UURAF
UCORE RARE METALS IN
6.91(+9.34%)
Rare 'erfs
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01-22-26 spal
So, the correct way to describe the problem is that in independent Greenland outside of NATO could pose a geo-political risk.
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Carib - yes. |
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01-22-26 panasonic
| Meanwhile non stop rally in US markers, who knew. |
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01-22-26 panasonic
Spain reacts, ready spend more money and probably align with China :-))
https://www.reuters.com/business/davos/spain-urges-eu-create-joint-army-amid-greenland-dispute-2026-01-21/ |
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01-22-26 carib
So, the correct way to describe the problem is that in independent Greenland outside of NATO could pose a geo-political risk.
That would be an entirely correct assessment, and would have most likely avoided the entire charade, because a diplomatic solution is easy to find. |
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01-22-26 CAP
The historical parallel you draw to the 1941 Agreement is accurate. During World War II, with Denmark under Nazi occupation, Danish envoy Henrik Kauffmann signed the Agreement Relating to the Defense of Greenland with the US on April 9, 1941. This made Greenland a de facto US protectorate for the war's duration: the US assumed responsibility for defense, built bases and infrastructure, operated weather/radio stations, and patrolled to counter potential Axis threats (including German weather stations and incursions). Denmark retained nominal sovereignty, but in practice, the US handled external security and strategic matters while local Greenlandic/Danish administration managed internal affairs. The agreement was ratified post-war by Denmark and superseded in 1951 by a new bilateral defense pact under NATO.That 1951 Defense of Greenland Agreement (still in force, with amendments) formalized US military access within defined areas, primarily for mutual NATO defense. It led to facilities like Thule Air Base (renamed Pituffik Space Base in 2023), now under US Space Force control. Today, about 150 US personnel are stationed there permanently, focused on missile warning, space surveillance, and Arctic monitoring—far smaller than Cold War peaks but strategically vital amid rising Russian/Chinese Arctic activity.Your proposed "new deal" aligns with recent discussions amid renewed US interest in Greenland (framed as a national security priority for Arctic control, resources like rare earths, and countering rivals). Reports indicate US, Danish, and NATO officials have explored frameworks for expanded US military access, potentially involving US sovereignty over limited areas for bases—modeled on Britain's sovereign base areas in Cyprus. This has been linked to NATO figures and compared to enhanced alliance commitments.A formalized "Arctic Sentry" mission under NATO, with US leadership (similar to Baltic air policing or enhanced forward presence), could embed deeper US operational control while preserving Danish formal sovereignty and Greenland's autonomy. This would leverage NATO structures to make unilateral Danish resistance politically costly, as it could strain alliance cohesion. Greenland already has significant self-government (under the 2009 Self-Government Act), handling internal matters, but defense/foreign affairs remain Danish responsibilities—potentially allowing a layered arrangement: Greenlandic internal autonomy, Danish nominal oversight, and US/NATO primacy on external defense, infrastructure, and resource security.However, full protectorate status (or outright acquisition) faces strong resistance. Greenland's government and population emphasize self-determination, with many favoring eventual independence from Denmark rather than shifting to US control. Denmark and European NATO allies view threats to sovereignty as risking alliance fractures. Recent escalations (including tariff threats and military rhetoric) have prompted European reinforcements in the Arctic and vows to defend Danish territory.In short, a NATO-embedded enhanced defense role for the US is plausible and builds directly on existing precedents (1941/1951 agreements), offering strategic gains without outright territorial change. But implementing it would require careful diplomacy to avoid alienating allies or fueling Greenlandic independence pushes in the opposite direction.
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01-22-26 spal
| Guys - I have an account where I simply allocate among mutual funds run by T. Rowe price ... have to say that the LatAm fund is killing it last few month. |
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01-22-26 spal
During World War II, Greenland effectively became a US protectorate under the 1941 agreement between the US and Denmark's envoy (signed amid Nazi occupation of Denmark). The US built military bases, handled defense, and treated Greenland as a strategic asset against Axis powers, all while Denmark retained formal ownership.
In practice, this could mean Greenland handles internal self-government (as it already does under Denmark's framework), while the US takes a leading role in external threats, resource extraction, and infrastructure—mirroring protectorate dynamics.
The new deal could formalize a NATO "Arctic Sentry" mission, similar to Baltic defenses, with US leadership. This would embed US control into alliance structures, making it harder for Denmark to resist without fracturing NATO.
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01-22-26 spal
to protect it from what?
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From Trump ...
LOL |
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01-21-26 savo
to protect it from what?
can't the US make an arrangement with DK to install whatever military presence they need to have? |
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01-21-26 spal
| My guess is that Greenland becomes a US Protectorate. |
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01-21-26 spal
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01-21-26 carib
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01-21-26 spal
Materion Corp. (NYSE: MTRN) fits an America First investment framework because it supplies strategic materials essential to U.S. defense, aerospace, and semiconductor manufacturing.
Materion specializes in beryllium and advanced engineered materials used in missile guidance systems, satellites, radar, precision optics, and semiconductor equipment. These are non-substitutable inputs in industries the U.S. government actively protects, funds, and is reshoring for national security reasons.
As globalization retreats and U.S. industrial policy prioritizes trusted domestic suppliers—through defense spending, export controls, and CHIPS-Act-style incentives—Materion benefits structurally, not cyclically.
Often misclassified as a niche metals company, MTRN is better understood as quiet national infrastructure at the materials level: scarce, protected, and strategically indispensable |
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01-21-26 spal
Stephens & Co. Maintains Overweight on Matson, Raises Price Target to $213
08:11 AM CST, January 21, 2026Updated 5 hours ago, January 21, 2026 at 8:11 AM CST
Stephens & Co. analyst Reed Seay maintains Matson (NYSE:MATX) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $190 to $213.
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01-21-26 spal
MATX
MATSON INC
155.95(+7.82%)
Added slightly - would like to add more
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01-21-26 carib
| But I also agree with Ken Griffin: the USA can keep fiscal imbalances fore some more time, but the longer it lingers, the more dramatic will the necessary correction be, eventually |
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01-21-26 panasonic
Fitch yesterday reiterated ratings, their models contemplate Japanese policy changes, and are totally manageable.
Will Fed cut rates next week?
At Davos DT tdy said clearly, USA has two ways to fight debt, growth is how he plans to do it, fwiw. |
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01-21-26 carib
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01-21-26 spal
Carib - my over riding point was to say that dispite the bond sell off the situation IMO in Japan will be contained - short/medium term.
Seem correct? |
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01-21-26 spal
Matson, Inc. (MATX) is a strong fit for an “America First” investment framework** because it functions less like a global shipping company and more like **protected domestic infrastructure.
Matson’s core business operates under the Jones Act which legally restricts U.S. domestic shipping routes to U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged, U.S.-crewed vessels. This creates a structural moat that effectively excludes foreign competition on critical routes linking the mainland to Hawaii, Alaska, and Guam. These corridors are economically essential and strategically important, especially as U.S. policy shifts toward supply-chain security and Pacific defense.
Unlike global shipping firms exposed to trade cycles and overcapacity, Matson benefits from stable demand, long-term contracts, and inflation pass-through mechanisms. Food, fuel, and consumer staples must move regardless of economic conditions, allowing Matson to preserve margins during volatility.
Financially, Matson stands out for its capital discipline. It avoided speculative vessel expansion during the COVID boom, maintains a strong balance sheet, generates consistent free cash flow, and returns capital via dividends and buybacks.
Crucially, Matson’s value is overwhelmingly domestic, insulating it from tariffs, trade wars, and globalization backlash. Yet the market often misprices it as a cyclical shipper, leaving it trading at modest multiples.
Bottom line: MATX is a durable, protected, sovereignty-linked asset that benefits as globalization retreats and national logistics resilience becomes a policy priority.
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01-21-26 carib
SPAL: I guess you answered your own question.
if the bank of Japan buys JGB, it provides cash in exchange for "papelitos", that is, monetise debt.
If the insurers hold rather than selling, they stay out of the market. Prices are made by buyers and sellers.
Correct?
sellers would get cash ¥ in exchange for ¥ bonds.
What will they do with such cash?
They can buy local stocks, putting upside pressure on stock prices, or foreign securities, depleting currency reserves.
(If they buy local stocks, sellers would get cash, that they must invest somewhere else, so that is a wash, I guess)
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01-21-26 spal
OSS
ONE STOP SYS INC
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America First Schtock |
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01-21-26 spal
| if you rebuy a debt you destroy it ... unless you are a central bank. |
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01-21-26 spal
Japan's institutions can monetise debt by buying their own bonds; the consequence would be some inflation, that they lacked for decades, and possibly lower Y fx.
Correct?
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Not sure if I'd call that monetize ... if you rebuy a debt you destroy it ... that reduces money. Is that what you meant?
The hurt for these institutions is on the asset side. They must hold these assets to maturity or convert them to equity.
Now I think that reversal of the carry trade means some repartiation of dollar exposure (so a weaker dollar) and yes Mrs Wananabe buys some local exposure for a change.
Is this what you were seeing?
I see this as a bump rather than a car crash. |
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01-21-26 spal
UURAF
UCORE RARE METALS IN
... Processor ... US favored ... department of war ... |
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01-21-26 spal
Stephens & Co. Maintains Overweight on Matson, Raises Price Target to $213
08:11 AM CST, January 21, 2026 |
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01-21-26 spal
| MATX ... enetered ... Jones Act carrier ... America First Trade |
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01-21-26 spal
PBF
PBF ENERGY INC Class A
32.46 (+5.42%)
Actual and portential processing of Vene crude ... lifting this one ...
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01-21-26 carib
| On the other hand, the many Mrs. Watanabes have not been used to 4% yields in Y, and they might temporarily consider such yields attractive. |
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01-21-26 carib
I guess, in essence, Japan's institutions can monetise debt by buying their own bonds; the consequence would be some inflation, that they lacked for decades, and possibly lower Y fx.
Correct? |
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01-21-26 spal
Likelihood of Shocks vs. Business Slowdown
This is poised to cause a business slowdown rather than acute shocks. Institutions are already curtailing activities: reduced bond buying, tighter lending (potentially slowing economic growth), and higher premiums for new insurance policies. Recent X posts highlight banks "bleeding" from losses and potential fire sales, but emphasize central bank backstops to avert crises. The Bank of Japan (BOJ), holding ~50% of JGBs, can intervene with purchases to stabilize markets, limiting doom loops. While fiscal concerns (e.g., tax cuts amid 250% debt-to-GDP) amplify risks, the domestic-heavy market and no immediate liquidity crunches suggest contained effects—eroded profits and conservative operations, not failures. If the February 8 election brings clarity, yields could ease, further reducing pressure.
Japan = Zombie-land (Schpal)
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01-21-26 spal
Potential for Technical Insolvency and Accounting - Japan
PracticesTechnical insolvency remains unlikely for major players, thanks to Japan's flexible regulatory and accounting rules. Most JGBs are held as "held-to-maturity" (HTM) assets, so unrealized losses aren't booked against equity or capital unless sold. For "available-for-sale" bonds, losses hit other comprehensive income (OCI), not core solvency metrics. Insurers' solvency margins are robust (often 600-1000%, far above the 200% minimum), and banks' capital adequacy ratios (12-16% for megabanks) offer headroom. No reports as of January 21 indicate negative equity at systemically important firms; instead, the focus is on "paper losses" that could reverse if yields fall or bonds are held to maturity. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) allows stress-test flexibility, preventing immediate shocks.
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01-21-26 spal
| The sharp rise (two days in a row) of Natural Gas futures ... would not liked to have been short there. |
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01-21-26 spal
Global Transmission
The sell-off transmits globally through several channels:Yield Spillovers: A 100 basis point rise in JGB yields typically adds 5-10 basis points to U.S. and Euro-area yields, as seen with U.S. 30-year yields nearing 4.9%.
Repatriation and Capital Flows: Japanese investors (holding ~$1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries) may sell foreign bonds to buy JGBs, pushing up global yields and compressing asset valuations.
Carry Unwind and Volatility: Triggers risk aversion in stocks, bonds, and crypto, with yen weakness near intervention zones amplifying currency fluctuations.
Broader Warning: Serves as a caution for indebted nations like the U.S., where similar fiscal pressures could emerge.
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01-21-26 savo
us stocks bear market entering into its 26th year when measured in real money!
and this year they may go down even in funny US money too !!!
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01-21-26 spal
The yen carry trade—involving borrowing in low-yield yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad (estimated at $1.5 trillion globally)—is under pressure but not necessarily facing an immediate full reversal.
Rising JGB yields narrow the interest rate differential with other countries, making new carry trades less profitable and deterring rollovers of maturing positions.
Existing trades may not unwind en masse right away, as they are often hedged or locked in at prior low rates, but rollovers are likely to decline sharply due to higher yen borrowing costs and yen volatility (currently near 158-160 vs. USD, approaching intervention levels).
This could lead to a gradual repatriation of funds by Japanese investors, selling foreign assets (e.g., U.S. Treasuries) to buy higher-yielding JGBs, further pressuring global markets.
Short-term, this has already contributed to yen weakness and bouts of risk aversion in stocks and crypto
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01-21-26 leopardo
| I play gold via Unlimited Turbos and mining shares. So far so good. |
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01-21-26 panasonic
| Savo, means you are all in slv and gld? |
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