06-04-26 carib
| .. in which case I really owe Savo that dinner.. |
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06-04-26 savo
| pana...for the moment in the 20s of total claim..should triple from here. |
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06-04-26 panasonic
| ...and pdvsa bonds should be trading in the high 50's. |
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06-04-26 carib
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06-04-26 panasonic
Carib, priority seems to be safety for oil cos. employees, legal frame tune up, money will flow.
27 years of devastation can't be fixed in 6 months. |
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06-04-26 panasonic
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06-04-26 panasonic
| Vic, dont see btc bouncing, maybe 6pk is a good technical level for those interested. |
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06-04-26 carib
What was general Caine doing in Caracas this week?
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06-04-26 carib
| El Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos habría solicitado al gobierno interino de la presidenta Delcy Rodríguez modificar el reglamento de la Ley Orgánica de Hidrocarburos por considerar que aún permite una discrecionalidad importante en la fijación de las regalías y los pagos del impuesto integrado de hidrocarburos y del impuesto sobre la renta (ISRL), así como de otras contribuciones parafiscales. |
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06-04-26 savo
victor... that is the way things are these days...once they got away with the epstein files it is free bar at the top...the UST steals iranian bitcoins... Orban does the same with Ukranian gold...
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06-04-26 victor
Una investigación atribuye directamente a Orbán el asalto al ‘convoy de oro’ ucraniano
El primer ministro, Péter Magyar, dice que su antecesor deberá asumir su responsabilidad en el caso
La decisión de detener a siete empleados del banco público ucraniano Oschadbank que transportaban dinero y oro por territorio húngaro fue ordenada personalmente por el entonces primer ministro de Hungría, el ultranacionalista Viktor Orbán, asegura una investigación del portal Telex.
El anterior Gobierno húngaro decidió el 5 de marzo pasado, en plena campaña para las elecciones legislativas del 12 de abril, asaltar el ‘convoy de oro’ ucraniano pese a que no existía ninguna justificación profesional para esa operación. |
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06-04-26 victor
carib, now that orban is gone..
//
Ucrania hace retroceder a Rusia en el frente por segundo mes consecutivo
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06-04-26 victor
| pana, btc up again rather quickly |
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06-04-26 panasonic
Vic, seems that Mark Cuban's hard words on btc did more damage than Saylor's selling a small batch.
Still a very good vehicle for money laundry. |
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06-03-26 savo
| victor... do you think DT will care... the US is lawless for those in power...they can rob... assassinate...bomb... rape...and nothing happens |
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06-03-26 victor
215 - 208
//
The House passed a resolution on Wednesday to limit President Donald Trump’s war powers in Iran, a significant rebuke to Trump and his handling of the conflict.
Democrats have repeatedly forced votes to limit Trump’s war powers in both the House and the Senate – a campaign that has gradually picked up more GOP support in recent weeks.
The vote was 215 to 208 with Republican Reps. Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett and Warren Davidson crossing party lines to support the resolution.
Passage of the war powers resolution is the latest instance of the GOP-controlled Congress pushing back on Trump’s agenda. Senate Republicans in recent days have revolted over a controversial $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund that Trump favors, but which they fear would grant payouts to his supporters who attacked police officers during the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol. Senate Republicans also formally removed funding for Trump’s ballroom security on Wednesday as part of their immigration package after the chamber’s official rule-keeper determined it violated budgetary rules.
The measure, known as a concurrent resolution, passed by the House Wednesday must be approved by both chambers, but would not go to the president to be signed.
The vote was 215 to 208 with Republican Reps. Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick, Tom Barrett and Warren Davidson crossing party lines to support the resolution. |
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06-03-26 victor
not everything is great in paradise :-))
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La Cámara de Representantes aprueba una resolución para limitar los poderes de Trump sobre la guerra en Irán |
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06-03-26 carib
| DeSantis embraces tax-the-rich message on Florida property taxes |
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06-03-26 panasonic
| Tobin tax: Uncle Sam is partner at max. tax rate, why kill the golden goose? |
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06-03-26 panasonic
Carib, pdvsa flat (sadly).
I mean for exposure to short term hikes in oil. |
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06-03-26 panasonic
| Carib, indeed seems inevitable. |
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06-03-26 carib
| PS: if one wants to discourage automated daytrading.. a Tobin tax is more efficient than capital gain tax, I guess. |
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06-03-26 carib
| SNDK (sandisk) stock gained an amazing 4.700% over 12 months.. |
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06-03-26 carib
| .. and good for renewables! |
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06-03-26 carib
| $200 a barrel.. good for PDVsa, I guess.. |
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06-03-26 carib
| Panas: I remain all against high taxes, but I think it is reasonable to shift a significant share of taxes from high incomes to extra high wealth. |
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06-03-26 carib
Thanks Savo.
I would not support your tax or regulatory proposals, actually. |
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06-03-26 savo
carib... how would you "tax wealth coming from cheap borrowing"?
i do not know exactly... but some ideas come to mind.
a) There should not be any cheap or expensive borrowing.. there should only be rates set by the market and borrowing should take place at those rates without central bank intervention on the money markets.
b) I would like to see cheaper borrowing, if it exists, helping main street not inflating wall street
c) As a consequence I would not tax entrepreneurship and job creation.
d) Given that the Fed exists and will continue setting rates I would like tax very heavily financial speculation ie, secondary market gains consequence of negative real rates. I would not mind to see an 60% plus tax on realised equity gains. However as I would still like to see the stock market performing the task of joining borrowers and investors I would not tax gains made from primary investments. Meaning people should want to participate in the equity market to collect dividends over time.
e) Alternatively d) could be replaced by a heavy tax on the value of stocks purchased in the secondary market on the value of those stocks at the end of the fiscal year. This will create a tax on unrealised earnings...with which I am ok.
In the end what i do not want is to see wall street sucking up all the capital in the economy for financial speculation and I do not want to see hordes of people making a living out of day trading. |
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06-03-26 panasonic
"$200 per barrel"
How do you play it? tia. |
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06-03-26 panasonic
Carib, place it in future time not actual, the next generation.
i.e. EU killed all incentives to create and innovate, so many moved elsewhere.
Higher taxes don't translate in more prosperity (and Warren knows that).
Now with AI the move is even more simple (as the example of the youtuber movie with a fraction of humans involved). |
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06-03-26 carib
| The contrarian argument is: those 50.000 households.. own all the media, including social media, and have most of Congress in their pocket. |
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06-03-26 carib
Panas: the point is... out of the 50.000 US households with over 50MM in assets.. how many would leave the USA, renounce US citizenship, and pay exit tax in order to avoid a wealth tax?
I guess less than 1.000. |
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06-03-26 carib
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House adviser, warned prices could reach $200 per barrel this summer unless the Strait of Hormuz — the crucial energy waterway in the Gulf closed by the war — was reopened to tanker traffic.
“You start to raise the risk of spillover into other sectors, the economy and financial system … it detonates fragilities in the broader economy and financial system,” McNally said.
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06-03-26 panasonic
"and to use the proceeds to give every US family a yearly voucher of 5.000$"
It's a very enticing proposal, especially in 3+ years when AI gains real speed. |
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06-03-26 CAC
Am Israel Jai
unnecessary war to please bloodthirsty NetanDracula... |
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06-03-26 panasonic
Carib, "but politically..."
Finally, we are in the same page ;-)
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06-03-26 carib
Panas: to be provocative..
imagine there was a proposal on the ballot to introduce a "wealth tax" on estates worth over 50 million $, and to use the proceeds to give every US family a yearly voucher of 5.000$ usable to pay for health insurance of medical costs.
How would you think the majority would vote? |
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06-03-26 carib
Panas: there is a political aspect, here.
- 236 million americans are eligible to vote for US president and congress,
- about 50.000 US households have assets in excess of 50MM$ (say 150.000 voters?) which is about 0,05% of eligible voters
- maybe 1 million americans seriously consider it likely they will ever own over 50 million in wealth (0,5% of eligible voters)
Economically, the idea might or might not make sense... but politically... |
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06-03-26 panasonic
Carib, good question, MSFT employs 228k workers globally, with substantial salaries, stock options, and (most) paid hefty taxes during the cycle.
Next creator can write an app on a Spark Laptop with 10 lines of vibe code, Dublin or similar venue could fit his needs.
Side note:
Backrooms movie: Directed by 20-year-old YouTube creator Kane Parsons (known for his Cain Pixels channel), this A24 horror film based on his popular viral series opened with a staggering $81.5 million.
Taxes paid on those $81.5 million (after costs) are not enough? proposal is to tax the kid on his wealth, hmmm. |
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06-03-26 carib
Savo: how would you "tax wealth coming from cheap borrowing"?
by limiting the deduction of passive interest from taxable income?
By limiting admissible leverage?
How else? |
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06-03-26 carib
| SPAL: problem is right many things and decisions that makes little sense tend to prevail on alternatives that indeed make good sense.. |
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06-03-26 spal
all correct.. but do you expect wealth tax to be introduced in the USA before 2030?
===
Some changes that tilt taxes towards capital as a factor make sense. To the extent that they get caught up in the hysterics of a debate on "wealth" taxes this will delay the inevitable. I think some changes around the edges are possible nonetheless by 2030. |
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06-03-26 carib
| PS: the concept of DOGE (department of government efficiency) was very good, but sadly proved to be short lived, a mere propaganda gimmick |
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06-03-26 carib
I might have a limited degree of understanding of the issue, but I fail to see why a "billionaire wealth tax" should discourage people from becoming wealth creators. I do not think for a second that Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, when college students, would have been pushed to forget about creating Microsoft and Apple by the thought that, if they eventually became billionaires.. they would have had to pay a 2% wealth tax.
I do understand, however, why most wealthy people deeply dislike wealth taxes, as much as current high earners deeply dislike to pay 60% or more of their income to the authorities in different kind of taxes.. |
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06-03-26 carib
| SPAL: all correct.. but do you expect wealth tax to be introduced in the USA before 2030? |
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06-03-26 Merlino
a system where labor is a depreciating asset
...................................
One can extrapolate this saying that ex wealthy people life is increasingly (satanically) cheap |
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06-03-26 Merlino
hard for me to believe that it's simply because that guy sold a little btc for the first time.
...............................
One likely explanation is that till yesterday at least they were selling most everything (BTC, Gold, Bonds, Stocks ex Tech, etc) to buy Tech stocks. Most USA & World Stock indexes are about same levels than in March 02
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06-03-26 savo
| to access cheap credit first |
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06-03-26 savo
pana... the companies of your "creators" are worth trillions because the Fed produces credit at negative real interest rates... The famous Cantillon effect
How do we deal with that?
I see two solutions:
1) let the market fix rates short and long
2) or, tax the wealth created from being able to cheap credit first.
In a world with 100% reserve banking... there would be no inflation and no Cantillon.
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06-03-26 savo
victor... currency have to serve as medium of exchange... store of value... and preferably both... btc does not tick any of the boxes
it was supported by a lunatic that had become buyer of last resort with money borrowed from other lunatics.
Crypto has a future as stable coins which inherently tokenize something.
BTC is tokenised nothing.
The US$ was in a way tokenised gold and did very well as such...the moment it became tokenised nothing... it collapsed 99% against real assets.
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06-03-26 spal
The current economic model creates a system where labor is a depreciating asset used to fund the state infrastructure, while capital is an accelerating, untaxed engine that consumes the available investable landscape.
The non-capital owner is not failing due to a lack of effort; they are being outpaced by a mathematical divergence where the price of entry into the capital class is rising far faster than the wages required to pay for it. |
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06-03-26 spal
... the marginal utility of labor-derived savings is crushed by the asset-price inflation driven by concentrated capital.
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This should be generally understood and should be something that people should state when opening their mouths on this subject.
Of course they will jump around on any other kind of diversion they can think of. |
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06-03-26 victor
savo, 66k btc..
hard for me to believe that it's simply because that guy sold a little btc for the first time.
he sold just a tiny amount.. herd mentality? |
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06-03-26 spal
Capital is hyper-mobile; it can flee to low-tax jurisdictions via corporate restructuring or offshore vehicles. Labor, however, is geographically bound.
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I am honestly tired of the people who argue for unfettered migration of their capital and their tax domicile. If this is their prime objective overall it clearly undermines labor in individual countries. It can not but do otherwise. They will argue that this if of course their prerogative. They have this merely and ultimately due to their wealth and nothing else. When this mentality is pushed ... it will lead to shove of one sort or another. Balance is needed. Extreme capitalism creates extremes. |
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06-03-26 spal
The facts are that the effective tax rate on labor has steadily risen whereas the effective tax rate on capital has fallen.
Capital is concentrated and in far fewer hands. The concentration of it is factual and is an outcome of the mechanics of how capitalism works. Capital gets concentrated.
The majority of people have no capital at all really. Their chances of getting some are lessened by the mathematical virtue of its concentration. As something concentrates it is harder at the margin to accumulate except where it has already concentrated.
Because capital inherently replicates and concentrates faster than labor can accumulate wealth, this shifting tax policy accelerates a feedback loop that mathematically marginalizes the wealth-building capacity of the non-capital-owning majority.
And so here we are ... if you allow logic rather then rhetoric or polemic to prevail.
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06-03-26 panasonic
Carib, if you ask why me so pessimistic, just bcz the job market of "high earners" will suffer dramatic changes from AI.
How would you fill that gap?
We must take in consideration that wealth tax may scare the next wave of creators, aka next wealthy people can reside outside developed countries, tricky future for those expecting help via wealth transfer, no?
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06-03-26 carib
Panas: I agree on both counts.
1) above 50MM, inflation indexed, sounds "fair".. but once you open that gate, the taxing appetite of politicians might lower the barrier at will, as long as 90% of voters in unaffected;
2) proceeds should be used to reduce taxation of income, not to increase spending.
That said, a "Warren tax" could generate annual revenue of around 500/750 billion $, in my opinion, which is not "peanuts". (2-3% of GDP) |
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06-03-26 panasonic
Carib, what starts at 50 goes down to 30 then 20...
If me was 90 years old, my foot.
That said, the important question where she got grilled is how much money that tax represents? all billions made by billionaires were already taxed in the making.
In summary, why not keep the billionaires generating billions and audit massive fraud in medicare for example, she starts babbling. |
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06-03-26 carib
| Panas: what would be the consequence for your family of the E.Warren wealth tax (2% over 50MM$ estate value)? |
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06-03-26 panasonic
| She got grilled in CNBC, but the proposal is gaining traction. |
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06-03-26 panasonic
| Elizabeth Warren, wealth tax now! |
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06-03-26 savo
unnecessary war to please bloodthirsty NetanDracula...
‘Late last night, the invading U.S. military targeted an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz with a hellfire missile, damaging the engine room.
In response to this aggression and violation of the regulations of the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC targeted an enemy Zionist-American ship, the ‘Panaya’, with missiles.
In a renewed aggression, the American enemy also targeted an IRGC communications on Qeshm Island.
In response to this aggression, its airbase and its helicopter base stationed in one of the countries in the region (Kuwait), as well as the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, were subjected to an attack by missiles and drones of the IRGC Aerospace Force.
We warned previously that in the event of aggression, the response would be different and harsher, and we have acted accordingly. These responses should serve as a lesson.
We reaffirm that undermining the security of the Strait of Hormuz will cost the invading U.S. military a heavy price.’ |
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