09-18-26 spal
Hearing assertions that Saudi Arabia is making false claims about Ansarallah mining the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and launching drones at Mecca. Saudi is running out of interceptors.
People are noting:
"They need to establish a multinational coalition to save themselves, so they’re running a false flag operation in order to bring more countries into the fold.
Ansarallah did not mine the Bab al-Mandeb. Ansarallah did not launch drones at Mecca.
It’s an op." |
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09-17-26 carib
A bipartisan poll of battleground House districts released by the Cook Political Report on Thursday found that Democrats were “in a strong position to flip control of the chamber this fall”. Democrats had a two-point edge in competitive areas that Trump had won by five points in 2024, amounting to a significant seven-point swing.
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09-17-26 carib
| OFAC General Licence 5Z moves the 2020 bondholders' collateral date to 5 November, two days past the American mid-terms and past the earthquake relief licence; the lettered series that began in October 2019 has run out of alphabet. |
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09-17-26 spal
Recent drone strikes targeted East-West pipeline pumping stations, forcing a complete shutdown of the 7.0 mb/d pipeline and the cancellation of European-bound September loadings out of Yanbu. Reports of a "50% capacity return" reflect a forward guidance target—not today's physical reality. Repairs will take 3 to 5 weeks, leaving Riyadh zero choice but to push barrels through Hormuz or cut production entirely.
Severe Asian Sour Crude Deficit
Asian buyers—led by Unipec (8V), S-Oil (6V), and Indian refiners—were facing catastrophic refinery slate imbalances due to Middle Eastern sour crude shortages. Asian mega-refineries cannot run exclusively on light Atlantic Basin crude without starving their hydrocrackers. Saudi Arabia seized the opportunity to clear stranded Ras Tanura/Juaymah inventory via STS transfers off Fujairah to prevent Asian buyers from permanently switching feedstocks or shutting down units.
Exploiting the "Friction Premium"
With Brent trading elevated and prompt spot crude commanding a massive premium over deferred futures, Aramco is capitalizing on peak physical urgency. Paying a diplomatic "transit fee" or facilitation payment to Tehran is a small operational expense compared to the massive netbacks realized by clearing 30+ supertanker volumes at current prompt spot prices.
Summary
The surge in spot sales through Hormuz isn't a contradiction—it is a pragmatic workaround to a temporarily broken East-West pipeline. Saudi Arabia paid/promised transit facilitation to Tehran to secure a temporary "green corridor" for STS transfers off Fujairah/Sohar, allowing Aramco to flush its Gulf backlogs to desperate Asian refiners while Petroline repairs are completed. |
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09-17-26 spal
| Extent of Peak Rates: MEG–China VLCC rates (TD3C) have tested record highs (~$760,000/day). While absolute spikes may briefly retrace as shuttle services stabilize, the baseline for global dirty/clean freight will remain 3x to 5x above historical norms through at least Q2 2027. |
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09-17-26 spal
Sources tell us senior Iranian officials flew to Saudi Arabia yesterday and that a government-to-government payment may have been made. What followed was one of the largest prompt crude sales we have seen out of the Kingdom, with vast volumes sold via the Strait of Hormuz through ship-to-ship transfer off Sohar and Fujairah for end September and October.
Here are the deals so far:
-China is the largest taker at around 10V - Unipec 8V, PetroChina 1V an Rongsheng 1V.
-Korea follows with roughly 10V - split between S-Oil on 6V, GS Caltex 2V and HDO 2V.
-Japan is heard at 2-4V - Idemitsu and ENEOS taking 1-2V apiece.
-India is now possibly as high as 6V.
-Exxon took 2V.
The question is why sell so much spot crude through Hormuz if your East/West pipeline is due to come back online to 50% capacity…let us know your thoughts.
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No doubt an Iranian oil swap with the Sauds. No honor among thieves. |
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09-17-26 spal
Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until Trump and Netanyahu are removed from power, setting a new condition for reopening the Strait, per Zolqadr, advisor to the Supreme Leader.
"Our fighters will not open the Strait of Hormuz until the criminal Trump and the bloodthirsty Netanyahu are pulled down from the throne of power," Zolqadr says, calling it "the first stage of the Iranian people's revenge."
In August a senior adviser to Iran's chief negotiator said Iran would keep Hormuz closed until Trump's term ends on January 20, 2029. The condition has now moved from a date to Trump's removal from office. |
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09-17-26 Merlino
https://noticierodigital.com/2026/09/asdrubal-oliveros-calcula-que-ingresos-petroleros-ronden-los-30-000-millones-al-cierre-de-ano/
El flujo de divisas por crudo escalará hasta los 40.000 millones de dólares para 2027. Las estimaciones base están calculadas sobre un bombeo proyectado de 1.600.000 barriles diarios para el cierre del próximo año. De acelerarse las operaciones, las cifras podrían ser todavía mayores.
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Not bad |
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09-17-26 carib
Netanyahu's US trips: $13,000 for hair and makeup, $500 smoking fee, $125 traffic ticket
The largest charge during that visit was $51,661 for Washington's Watergate Hotel, while the total itemized charges in the report came to approximately $128,900.
I thought they were stingy...
;-) |
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09-17-26 carib
| The "centre-left" won narrowly the last swedish elections, but might well be unable to form a government with an agreed programme. Time will soon tell, I guess. |
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09-17-26 spal
UKMTO Alert off of Yemen .. tanker attempted to be intercepted
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Every bit helps ... |
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09-17-26 spal
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09-17-26 spal
| I need the money ... I heard there is inflation out there ... and Satanists!! |
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09-17-26 spal
| Heading for the porno zone |
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09-17-26 spal
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09-17-26 spal
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09-17-26 spal
| Chokepoints - the new thing. |
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09-17-26 spal
Tankers
I am sailing, I am sailing
Home again 'cross the sea
I am sailing stormy waters
To be near you, to be free ... |
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09-17-26 spal
| Panas - yes - better yet. |
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09-17-26 panasonic
Spal, my quant equation is far more simplistic:
"diesel prices up, rates up"
:))
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09-17-26 spal
You can say what you want about Iran but they're definitely pretty unique in their communication: never seen a country threaten another with a math equation before 😅
For those who didn't get it: there is a famous monetary policy formula used by the Fed called the "Taylor rule" that says a central bank's policy rate (i) should equal the neutral real rate (r*) plus target inflation (π*), plus 1.5 times the inflation gap and 0.5 times the output gap (the "i = r* + π* + 1.5(π−π*) + 0.5(y−y*)" part of Ghalibaf's formula).
Ghalibaf adds α(SOH−SOH*) and β(BEM−BEM*): SOH referring to the Strait Of Hormuz and BEM to Bab El-Mandeb. Both have positive coefficient, meaning the more those chokepoints are choked, the higher the rate the Fed would have to set to fight the resulting inflation.
In a nutshell this is Ghalibaf trolling the Fed, telling them that Iran is - in a very real way - setting American monetary policy.
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This is my quant. |
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09-17-26 spal
ULTRA MAGA Trumper
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Completely mentally retarded. |
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