10-15-26 carib
The Iranian regime told Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon to be prepared for the United States to resume the war with Iran, following Wednesday's report that Iran currently estimates that "an American attack is only a matter of time," two diplomatic sources told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
Iran's message to Hezbollah, according to the sources, was: "We estimate that an American attack is a matter of time - you should also be prepared."
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10-15-26 carib
| Leo: the main issue I see is that they will have to make a voluntary exchange, and avoid holdouts by making sure litigation to seize assets (besides CITGO) will be pointless. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
Anyway I'm optimistic.
I think that everyone wants to solve the debt situation and if hey want to do it it must be with bondholder's consent sooo recovery will not be bad. |
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10-15-26 carib
| Leo: I guess that is why there are only institutional investors in the committee.. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
| You may be right Carib but you usually have to sign documents wich bind you from trading... |
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10-15-26 carib
| Leo: you mean none of the current credit committee members is trading any bonds? I doubt. |
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10-15-26 carib
SPAL: I understand that.. BUT.. If one introduced portable mortgages, at the same time an adequate fee (based on IR swaps) should be introduced to refinance when rates come down, IMHO.
I think the system would be made more solid by higher bank capital requirements too. The objective should be to make the financial architecture more solid, rather than more brittle.
Portability and IRSwaps should make real estate prices less volatile, reducing the upside when rates drop too much and the downside when they increase. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
Carib if we take a Seat in Vnz Creditor’s Group then
we cannot trade… |
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10-15-26 amateur
| https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/dgs10 |
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10-15-26 amateur
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/dgs10
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10-15-26 amateur
| We have not yet seen the victims of the recent violent rise in long term rates. Somebody is holding those trillions... |
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10-15-26 amateur
The only reasonable grounds I ever heard to justify HTM fantasy accounting, is that banks have matching long term fixed rate cheap funding that cannot be revalued (lower) under accounting rules. If the 2 misvaluations compensate, the capital of the banks is not misrepresented.
But if they took a gamble buying 30y UST with short term funding, and the bet goes wrong, HTM is just hiding a current loss. A bit too much of it and you get the Silicon Valley story.
The amount of HTM loss is not secret, it shows in the small print of the financials. They don't trick credit evaluators, it is just a gimmick to reduce capital requirements, and allow larger dividends. |
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10-15-26 spal
| Carib - that is a loss to capital - whereas if held it is a loss to income over time. Lose enough capital quickly enough and then bingo no bank Hence the hesitation. |
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10-14-26 savo
given our views we run the risk of being debanked!
Federal watchdog says 9 large US banks denied service to customers over political or religious views
Jennifer Schonberger, David Hollerith
Wed, October 14, 2026 at 6:06 PM GMT+2
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/markets/article/federal-watchdog-says-9-large-us-banks-denied-service-to-customers-over-political-or-religious-views-160634194.html |
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10-14-26 carib
I cannot see anything wrong with banks taking losses. That is better, in my view, than hiding losses.
:-) |
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10-14-26 amateur
"someone is taking a loss. There is no alchemy here." Indeed, Spal. The pool of debt available to buy @ mkt prices is smaller than I thought, though.
Someone must be doing it.
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10-14-26 amateur
Well, not what I expected. Very little on MBS, 6 trillion in banks (!) and only 1.14 trillion in MBS. Most of the lot in public hands, even counting the Ginnie Mae to the private lot.
By Asset Holder (Federal Reserve Z.1 Flow of Funds Balance Sheet)
Under standard Federal Reserve categorization, mortgage loans "belong" to the following holders:
• Banks (Depository Institutions): ~29% ($6.25+ trillion). These are predominantly held directly on bank balance sheets as portfolio loans (such as jumbo mortgages or unique borrower profiles that do not qualify for securitization).
• Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (GSEs): ~35% ($7.68+ trillion). This represents the share directly held or guaranteed under the Government-Sponsored Enterprise umbrella. Note: If looking exclusively at the single-family conforming mortgage market, Fannie and Freddie support roughly 70% of it.
• Standalone Mortgage Pools / MBS Trusts: ~20% ($4.37+ trillion). Due to accounting consolidation rules (FAS 166/167), Fannie and Freddie's MBS pools are consolidated onto their own balance sheets. Therefore, this standalone "Mortgage Pools" figure primarily captures Ginnie Mae pools ($2.91T) and private-label asset-backed conduits ($1.14T).
• Other Holders: ~16% (Remaining balance held by life insurance companies, credit unions, REITs, the Federal Reserve, and individuals) |
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10-14-26 savo
EEUU acusa a España
unbelievable.... that is exactly what the US does all the time...
sanctioning vessels because they do not suit their criminal policies...
this is the problem i have with Pedro... I do not like his politics... but the guy spits in the US ugly and corrupted face like nobody does!
Dark Fleet Stats
The Dark Fleet consists of 1482 active vessels, which can be broken down into various groups, depending on their flag, various size classes, etc.
Breaking the dark fleet down by each individual vessel's flag, we have the following top-20 list:
Russia : 353 vessels
Cameroon : 105 vessels
Iran : 88 vessels
Sierra Leone : 88 vessels
Panama : 86 vessels
Comoros : 62 vessels
Eq Guinea : 51 vessels
Nicaragua : 49 vessels
Curaçao : 40 vessels
Barbados : 38 vessels
Hong Kong : 36 vessels
Guyana : 32 vessels
Oman : 31 vessels
Malawi : 27 vessels
Mozambique : 24 vessels
Marshall Islands : 23 vessels
Palau : 22 vessels
Gambia : 20 vessels
Mali : 20 vessels
Guinea : 17 vessels
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10-14-26 spal
| Amateur if you are buying old run MBS at current yields from anywhere someone is taking a loss. There is no alchemy here. |
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10-14-26 victor
EEUU acusa a España de dañar su comercio marítimo y propone una tasa de 180.000 euros por viaje a los barcos españoles
Madrid, 14 de octubre de 2026
La Comisión Marítima Federal asegura que el Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez "negó" el acceso a sus puertos a embarcaciones con bandera de Estados Unidos, lo que implica "graves" consecuencias para la eficiencia y la fiabilidad de la cadena de suministro del transporte marítimo internacional.
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10-14-26 victor
| carib, right.. it belongs to the govt |
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10-14-26 carib
| 19 polls were run in Spain this october. CIS is the only one predicting the opposite of the other 18... |
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10-14-26 carib
Victor: I saw that poll on "El Pais" today.
How reliable?
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10-14-26 victor
pana, sanchez is excellent at blaming others for his shortcomings..
similar to dt.
for example:
there is a housing crisis.. it's not sanchez's fault even though he's been in office for 8 years..
the PP is to be blamed for the housing crisis, etc |
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10-14-26 victor
carib, according to today's CIS statistics (controlled by the govt), sanchez should win. :-))
//
El CIS sitúa al PSOE 12 puntos por delante del PP en unas elecciones, en plena crisis de la vivienda
PSOE 34%
PP 22,2%
etc |
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10-14-26 savo
| imagine carib that he will cheat... he already did it at party level. |
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10-14-26 carib
| Victor: I do not imagine how Sanchez could not lose in November. |
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10-14-26 panasonic
| Vic, Sanchez won't escape from this one easily. |
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10-14-26 victor
inflation in spain, even worse than in the usa.
14.10.2026
La inflación se dispara en septiembre: el IPC alcanza el 4,9% y se sitúa en máximos desde febrero de 2023
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10-14-26 victor
Inflation figure not good for Republicans...
neither for sanchez :-)
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10-14-26 carib
| Inflation figure not good for Republicans, I guess. |
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10-14-26 victor
| Jorge Rodríguez fue retirado de la lista OFAC de Estados Unidos |
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10-14-26 amateur
How much of the stock of housing loans sit in the books of banks? My gues is very low, 10/20% ?
The rest is in Fannie-Freddie, or in MBS. The MBS, I suppose, trade at market value, so anybody can buy them and the seller takes the loss. I dont expect banks to hold many MBS, the purpose of securitization was precisely to get rid of them.
Can one actually buy MBS today with yields of 7% or more?
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10-14-26 carib
SPAL: in a nutshell... how can the system deleverage for real without breaking most eggs?
the answer is that possibly it cannot.
But any innovation enhancing resilience should be welcome.
In the mortgage sector, the idea of portability is just a pet subject, a chihuahua of sort.
The elephant would be limiting credit to max 75% of value, and keeping rates as low as really secured credits deserve, IMHO. |
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10-14-26 savo
has been more challenging than expected
of course... they do not know how much oil the country will produce... when it will be produced... who will produce it.... under what terms will revenues be shared... what taxes will be collected and what will crude prices be during the next 20 years...
whoever invented the concept of DSA should be hanged, emasculated, disembowelled, beheaded, and quartered. |
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10-14-26 Merlino
BANGKOK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Venezuela is hoping to publish a debt sustainability analysis "very soon", but the process has been more challenging than expected, top economic adviser Calixto Ortega told a panel during the IMF-World Bank meetings on Wednesday.
The Latin American oil-producing nation announced plans in May to restructure its debt, and has been working on macroeconomic and debt frameworks to underpin the process since then
It had aimed to deliver these in June, and Calixto said they had been "almost ready to do so" before devastating earthquakes struck the country that month
"This is a priority," Calixto said of publishing the documents, adding: "I am very optimistic"
The restructuring of the country's estimated $150-200 billion debt pile could be the largest in history and is complicated by a unique web of creditors |
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10-14-26 spal
Price changes over last year (September CPI report)
Fuel Oil: +74.0%
Gasoline: +34.2%
Gas Utilities: +5.0%
Electricity: +4.4%
Overall CPI: +3.7%
Food away from home: +3.5%
Apparel: +3.4%
Shelter: +3.2%
Transportation: +2.7%
Medical Care: +2.5%
Food at home: +1.8%
New Cars: +0.6%
Used Cars: -1.5% |
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10-14-26 spal
| It is more fragile without some HTM accounting BTW and FWIW. |
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10-14-26 spal
| Yes but unless you want temporary duration shocks to break your banks you need some accounting accommodations in bank capital. And yes they can be abused. All grey areas … like bankers. Always has been. |
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10-14-26 Merlino
Is it fragile?
.....................
If I remember the 2019 change in accounting standard was made just to hide a very large fragility that would have sent bankrupt most large banks and many other corps downstream. The mkt started to quickly recover just bcz of this change. |
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10-14-26 carib
SPAL: the point is that a balance sheet that values 100 what is actually worth 30.. is a set of cooked books, IMHO.
Is this the reality? yes
Is this sound? no.
Is it fragile?
yes. |
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10-14-26 spal
| It’s the ultimate economic trade-off: you can either sit on the 3% "egg" at amortized cost and pretend it's still worth $100, or you can crack it open, take the mark-to-market loss, and try to cook up a new 7% yield. But you can't eat the discount and keep the intact balance sheet too. |
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10-14-26 spal
| There is almost never a unique, isolated 30-year liability paired with a single 30-year mortgage. And yes, break HTM accounting and you break the banks and destroy the product you would like to freely traffic. |
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10-14-26 spal
| France would be very happy to buy back its debt cheaply. Banks on the other hand normally do not voluntarily destroy their assets. |
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10-14-26 carib
| The skulduggery lays in the principle of holding to maturity, in accounting terms., IMHO. |
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10-14-26 carib
| Obviously, If one can buy back his mortgage at a big discount, the lender takes a loss. But if the lender backed the loan with a corresponding long term fixed rate bond, it can use the proceeds to buy back such bond at an equivalent discount, closing the deal with a net profit, not loss, equal to the original margin between the loan and the debt. |
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10-14-26 spal
| Amateur - yes - and the seller takes a loss. |
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10-14-26 carib
SPAL: there is no need, in my opinion, to "subsidise" anything. The actual "subsidising" was done by the laws and institutions that provided 30Y fixed rate loans to borrowers with insufficient credit. a 30Y fixed rate mortgage is like a 30Y secured bond with amortisation. If the mortgage is given at a rate higher than current 30Y bonds, the agency still makes a profit by financing it with the said government guaranteed bond. 30Y Bonds values of course will oscillate above par during their lives. There should be no structural reason for such securities not to be tradable, as Amateur suggests.It will most likely not happen, because the system became too complex and cumbersome in practice, not because the concept is not correct.
France issued a 0,5% 50 Y bond in 2022, @95. It can buy it back now @22. There is no "subsidy" in that, just markets operating. |
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10-14-26 amateur
I dont deal in MBS, but if you buy one, dont you buy it at a price that yields > 7% ?
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10-14-26 spal
| Central bank actions have made this game so confusing and obtuse - and hey sorry about that - but the song remains the same. |
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10-14-26 spal
The ultimate irony, of course, is that proposing a state-subsidized "portable mortgage in every pot" is just Bourgeois Socialism at its finest: socializing the mark-to-market losses for the asset-owning class while passing the bill to the renting proletariat. Marx himself couldn't have written a better parody of capital-seeking arbitrage under the guise of populist benevolence!
:) |
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10-14-26 spal
| No low rates for everyone…only get them when you can and as much as you can … as Carib clearly understands. |
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10-14-26 spal
| Best to focus on how to sell it as a populist. Perhaps a portable mortgage in every pot - as an echo of the crazed Henry IV of France: If God spares my life, I will see to it that no peasant in my realm is so poor that he will not have a chicken in his pot every Sunday. |
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10-14-26 spal
| Unless some really craven person in a government is talked into such a scheme (always possible) and subsidizes it with everyone else’s money the scheme (and it would only be a scheme) will not fly. |
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10-14-26 spal
| Unfortunately Amateur there are no free lunches (even in Argentina). For an entity (a hedge fund, Fannie/Freddie, or the Treasury) to buy an MBS and offer a discounted mortgage payoff, someone must take the mark-to-market loss. There is no profit to share without someone eating a loss … |
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10-14-26 amateur
Lies, damned lies and HTM 😝
It is obviously not happening. But it is not so impossible.
HF could buy MBS yielding 7%; offer precancellation to debtors at 5% discount and make the profit, free from accounting inhibitions.
Fannie-freddie could do it too, for political reasons. And profitably.
The DT administration should be working on this if they had half a brain |
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10-14-26 spal
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10-14-26 spal
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10-14-26 spal
Big boost to TRMD guidance- HAFN will also follow, but TRMD is up big in the premark.
TORM’s upgraded 2026 guidance is strong for several structural reasons:
* Substantial Earnings Expansion: Raising expected Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) income to $1.7–$1.9B (from $1.4–$1.6B) and EBITDA to $1.3–$1.5B (from $1.0–$1.2B) represents an immediate ~20–27% top- and bottom-line forecast revision.
* Locked-In Revenue Visibility: The adjustment relies on high forward contract coverage, meaning TORM secured these lucrative charter rates rather than relying purely on speculative spot market projections.
* Macro Product Tanker Fundamentals: Fleet availability remains tight while seasonal fourth-quarter demand—driven by refinery output and winter heating transport—continues to inflate freight rates.
* Direct Cash Flow & Dividend Upside: Because TORM’s payout policy directly links quarterly distributions to operating cash flow, this guidance revision translates into higher immediate dividend yields for shareholders ahead of the Q3 release on November 4.
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10-14-26 spal
| Banks have HTM accounting here so they will hold the 3% mortgages - they are not going to take losses on prepayments for “portability” reasons. There is also zero incentive for an MBS structurer / loan servicer to allow this in a falling rate environment. Not going to happen. |
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10-14-26 amateur
| Another problem may be that the fund managers may not have the legal authority to engage in these negotiations. |
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10-14-26 amateur
The frozen mortgages are consequence of the repackaging and circulation of loans. Mortgage is an accessory, the loan is the principal.
In the old times, the bank could accept from a 3% debtor a discounted payment equal to the present value of the contractual payments of the loan. Discounted at 6% the original debtor would get a huge discount, the mortgage would be cancelled and the bank would have his money back to place a new loan at 7%. Everybody happier in a Pareto way.
Now the owner of the loan is a mechanically managed fund with no capacity to refine these deals.
This might be an interesting area for AI… |
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