09-22-26 savo
pana... example... if the US stops the fan... the US stops...
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-us-china-bike-tariffs/ |
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09-22-26 savo
although we are all anxious to see a debt restructuring asap... the reality is that under current economic conditions... after the earthquake... the terms would not have been attractive.
Better to wait for the economy to recover and then come up with something more acceptable.
The other option is my theory that the evil psycho has been doing the tour saying that whatever terms are agreed with Delcy will not be honored. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
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09-22-26 carib
| delay + sacking Pigasse might go hand in hand. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
"may delay its planned debt restructuring"
Sounds more like the reason for price drop. |
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09-22-26 carib
Venezuelan news site Bitacora Economica reported that the Delcy Rodriguez administration had decided not to move forward with the debt restructuring for now to focus on the oil deals and improving the nation’s credit profile
“Moving out the ‘restructuring date’ has negative implications for current prices,” said Matthew Graves, an emerging-markets portfolio manager at PPM America |
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09-22-26 carib
Vnezuela’s defaulted dollar bonds fell by more than a cent across the curve on Tuesday as local media reports that the government may delay its planned debt restructuring rattled investors.
Sovereign notes due in 2027, some of the most liquid, dropped by 1.2 cents on the dollar to trade below 53 cents, according to indicative pricing data compiled by Bloomberg |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Carib, Lazard offer was better and much cheaper, Reuters should report any news if happens, nothing yet. |
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09-22-26 carib
Veny bond prices down.
FMI coming to Caracas, but not soon.
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09-22-26 carib
any rumors Veny is sacking Centerview?
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09-22-26 carib
| exorbitant privilege.. known for half a century.. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Prediction markets say Senate now 60% probability it goes to democrats. |
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09-22-26 carib
PS: if the europeans finally united and set up a credible military, and an integrated and vital capital market, a significant part of the US extraordinary privilege would evaporate.
But the europeans must blame themselves, not the americans. |
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09-22-26 carib
Savo: the origin of the deficit is twofolds:
1) importing more goods than the US exports (partially covered with surplus in services)
2) spending more than tax revenue.
Both factors allow "poor" americans to get more goods and benefits than they otherwise would.
Most non poor americans have pension funds betting on the S&P500, essentially, so it is not only the oligarchs who benefit. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Savo, in your opinion what happens to global economy if that fan is turned off? |
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09-22-26 savo
feed wall street with a constant flow of money
that was my point... the flow is the interest on the debt... which is fundamental to the model as long as it does not spill over Main street and Housing street.
The problem with this scheme... is that it feeds the hyper rich and those are not many.
Main Street and Housing Street, which the "many" are not happy hence DT's low approval ratings.
And his 5,000 check promise supported by the imbecile in chief at the treasury.
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09-22-26 carib
ft
In early September, the top foreign exchange experts at Japan’s biggest banks started taking calls from investors and regulators with two big questions: how big is the yen carry trade, and how close is it to unwinding?
The short answers from the Tokyo forex gurus — “nobody exactly knows” and “a lot closer than we would like” — were of little comfort to them.
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09-22-26 carib
My take, to put it in simple terms is that the USA systematically runs a twin deficit with the rest of the world, partially offset by profits of big tech, and this allows uncle Sam to give goodies to the poor, so they keep consuming, and feed wall street with a constant flow of money, so the rich feel happier.
Foreigners can join the bandwagon by betting on the right US stocks.
If this merry go round gets stopped by an unhinged leadership, we will face some turbulent times. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
Savo, Musk's territory indeed, build factories fully automated and tariffs are irrelevant.
It will happen? Me say political class won't understand so for now, I'm pessimistic.
Hope we see USA running zero deficit, then we can re-visit if world can thrive without US printing press. |
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09-22-26 spal
| BWET ... insane vol ... tanker market high probably hit ... caution. |
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09-22-26 savo
i disagree with that Pana... take China... tariffs on China... you would have supposed that China's trade surplus would go down... it didn't.. it went up...how come? they sold less to the US and more to the rest of the world.
There are a number of urban legends around... one is that engine one..
The US consumes what it does not produce and for which the did not pay in real goods... they pay with printed money that loses value before arriving....
The US is not carrying the rest of the world... the opposite... the rest of the world is carrying the US as the rest of the world is financing US consumption with rest of the world savings. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
China spends record amount importing over 1,000 tonnes of gold this year.
World’s second-largest economy shelled out almost $160bn on bullion in eight months to August |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Savo, US trade deficit is the engine of the world, hope it goes down to zero but global economies won't look that good that day. |
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09-22-26 savo
pana... USA has everything it needs
quite the opposite...
hence the 1trn + trade deficit...
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09-22-26 carib
| Panas: not qualified to provide meaningful prediction. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
| Carib, your take on gold? |
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09-22-26 carib
| One sometimes gets the impression this US administration is trying to undermine their own currency.. |
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09-22-26 spal
| Panas - your last point is a good one I think. |
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09-22-26 spal
KSA will be chocked to death.
===
No great loss. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
Savo, you're missing the real point, USA has everything it needs.
Now that power balance in ME has been broken with Xi's sponsorship,
decision relies on the rest of world; is their money being used to build weapons pointing at them? |
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09-22-26 savo
| bessent is an incompetent... he should focus on his job and stop making international threats. |
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09-22-26 panasonic
"Saudi Arabia will ultimately choose to pay for security guarantees"
That will work for some time, but eventually has to be solved or KSA will be chocked to death. |
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09-22-26 carib
Standard Chartered, Citigroup and other international banks have handled billions of dollars from a Kremlin-backed fintech company that tricked its way into the global financial system with a vast document forgery operation.
Hundreds of thousands of files obtained by the FT from inside A7, a group set up as an alternative to the western payments system, reveal how it used old-fashioned money laundering to funnel more than $6.9bn through the international banking system despite sanctions on Russia.
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09-22-26 carib
is Bessent deterrent credible?
I am no longer sure about that.
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09-22-26 spal
G7 statement: Houthi strikes in Yemen and against Saudi Arabia are unacceptable and must stop
===
Yes mum, yes dad ... f_ck you. |
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09-22-26 spal
Expect one or two more highly targeted, sudden operational spikes—such as a brief, high-visibility disruption to an oil transit node or an intercepted tanker scare in the Gulf—between now and mid-October.
This will serve as Tehran's final "demonstration of capability" to ensure the back-channel negotiations in Oman yield a concrete, non-dollar financial lifeline before their floating reserves run dry.
Then some kind of off ramp cooked up in Muscat. |
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09-22-26 spal
Savo - the deficit/ debt is not a conspiracy. The vast majority of federal spending is driven by mandatory transfer payments and structural entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, veteran benefits). These are political asks and choices. The interest bill is the consequence of decades of accumulated primary deficits.
The system has been ginned up (ample reserves regime etc) to accomodate this.
Consumption is hit - via inflation. |
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09-22-26 spal
| Concurrently, Riyadh will accelerate quiet, off-grid financial and diplomatic negotiations with Tehran and the Houthis via Oman. Faced with U.S. reluctance to enter a fresh war in Yemen, Saudi Arabia will ultimately choose to pay for security guarantees, opting for a costly economic compromise over a destructive, multi-year war of attrition. |
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09-22-26 spal
Saudi Arabia must now either fight an expensive, asymmetric war of attrition alone or enter quiet, off-grid negotiations with Tehran and Ansar Allah.
===
"Show me the money" |
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09-22-26 spal
Having successfully isolated Saudi Arabia from direct U.S. military intervention, Ansar Allah is re-allocating forces toward the Kahboub Mountains and moving east toward Marib to threaten Saudi-backed oil extraction sites inside Yemen.
The Saudi Posture (Exhaustion & Isolation): The Royal Saudi Air Force continues to launch localized interdiction strikes over Taiz and Hajjah, but Riyadh is facing acute air defense interceptor depletion. Lacking direct U.S. air support, Saudi leadership is scrambling to secure air-defense replenishment from European and regional partners while evaluating whether its infrastructure can sustain continued saturation strikes. |
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09-22-26 spal
| The "Muscat Channel" Guarantees: The decision to abort was driven by assurances reaffirmed through Omani diplomats in Muscat. The Houthis explicitly messaged Washington that their 2025 bilateral ceasefire with the U.S. remains intact and that they will not target U.S. warships or American commercial shipping—focusing their kinetic pressure exclusively on Saudi Arabia to force an economic capitulation. |
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09-21-26 savo
who gives a f*ck about the dollar system?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on Monday that by Wednesday Sept. 23, "all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world."
"If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system," he described.
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09-21-26 savo
| victor... probably the Crook House buying with public money and fronting the trade. |
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09-21-26 victor
| savo, why is btc at $86k ?? |
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09-21-26 amateur
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09-21-26 amateur
| But I would not move out yet, Savo. Decadent civilizations are more pleasant to live in than totalitarian powers 🙄 |
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09-21-26 savo
spal... i was thinking... may be the US debt is not the consequence of the Fiscal Deficit... but the Fiscal Deficit exists on purpose.. to grow the debt and grow the interest bill.
Every year the UST hands over to Wall Street 1.3 trn dollars of interest payments.
But they do not take it from the tax payer... they just print it (ample reserves they call it). So consumption does not suffer.
It is very important the distinction...the UST does not print money to give it to main street... that would explode the CPI... they print it to give it to Wall Street so that the S&P and the Nasdaq explodes.
the US needs the debt... and needs the deficit its interest produces so that they can print it and inflate the stock indexes.
it is design.
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09-21-26 carib
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_taxation |
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09-21-26 carib
Victor: I do not remember all the facts, but there are a few nations that discriminate citizens on tax matters, starting from the USA (and eritrea). I think Hungary and Cyprus too.
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09-21-26 victor
carib, so ph citizens are discriminated in such an obvious way?
must be terrible to be a ph citizen. |
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09-21-26 carib
As Merz said today.. it is easy to catch votes promising easy solutions that are appealing but do not work, as anybody with experience in governing (or managing a business) knows..
Fooling fools is not a hard job.. |
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09-21-26 carib
About the Berlin "expropriations"... as far as I understood, it is an electoral vote catcher trick.
In practice, to expropriate large corporate RE estate owners, the Berlin State would have to pay them about 30 billion €.
Not clear where the state would find the money.
The Linke german-italian co leader said.. it will take some years to find a solution..
I see the USA also adopted this year a bill limiting corporate RE ownership..(no retroactive effect) |
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09-21-26 carib
Victor:
Resident and Non-Resident Aliens: Taxed only on income originating from within the Philippines
not so for citizens. |
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09-21-26 victor
fortunately, merz is (still) around
//
Merz veta la gran promesa de Die Linke: "En Alemania no habrá expropiaciones de viviendas"
21 septiembre 2026
El canciller Friedrich Merz lanzó este lunes un veto frontal a la promesa estrella con la que Die Linke ganó las elecciones en Berlín: expropiar a las grandes sociedades inmobiliarias para transferir a manos públicas unas 220.000 viviendas y contener sus alquileres. "En Alemania no habrá expropiaciones", sentenció Merz, que recordó que el Gobierno federal prepara una ley para impedirlas y se mostró convencido de que será aprobada muy pronto.
El canciller ya había advertido antes del paréntesis estival de las consecuencias que esa amenaza tendría para la imagen y la seguridad jurídica de Alemania. "En todo el mundo se preguntan: '¿Qué está pasando en Alemania? ¿Tenemos que contar con expropiaciones en Alemania?' Y nuestra respuesta será muy clara y contundente: 'no'", afirmó en julio. "En este caso concreto reaccionamos con una ley que prohíbe la expropiación de empresas inmobiliarias, y podemos regularlo mediante una ley federal".
El argumento de Merz es que una decisión adoptada en Berlín no se limitaría a la capital, sino que afectaría a la confianza en Alemania como destino de inversión. La amenaza de expropiación ahuyentaría el capital privado necesario para construir las viviendas que faltan y sostener el desarrollo económico de una ciudad-estado fuertemente endeudada y con enormes necesidades de inversión.
El pronunciamiento del canciller abre un choque frontal con Elif Eralp, la candidata de Die Linke que se impuso en las elecciones con el 25,7% de los votos. Eralp ha convertido precisamente la expropiación en condición fundamental para negociar una coalición de gobierno con los Verdes y el Partido Socialdemócrata (SPD). "Siempre he dicho que, si Die Linke entra en el Gobierno, habrá socialización", declaró este lunes. A su juicio, la medida es "jurídicamente posible, financiable y uno de los mejores instrumentos para mantener asequible la vivienda". |
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09-21-26 victor
germany.. such a nice country :-))
September 21, 2026
Far-left leader pushing to lead Berlin says city has voted for change
...
Famously described by former mayor Klaus Wowereit as "poor but sexy", Berlin has become increasingly expensive and its once famously cheap rents are now a thing of the past.
Eralp has pledged to expropriate more than 200,000 housing units from corporate landlords in a campaign which saw the party, whose roots lie in the former East German communist party, make gains in central and western areas of the city as well as its traditional strongholds in the east.
"I still stand by that," she said on Monday, despite questions about how to finance a move the centre-left Social Democrats estimated would cost some €20 billion ($22.94 billion).
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09-21-26 victor
carib, Philippines have territorial taxation
no, it's global.. afaik.. they used to be a usa colony |
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09-21-26 carib
Mo-mon: I think the Philippines have territorial taxation, so one can happily bank in Singapore, legally avoid any tax on capital income and gains (except local assets) and just need a tax residence certificate stamped. No CRS is relevant to the matter.
Correct? |
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09-21-26 carib
Eu commission fined Google over 100MM for geolocating its customers and keeping data longer than allowed by EU law.
The real battle for privacy, IMHO, is with big data and AI, with facial recognition devices spreading. EU is far more protective of privacy than US and China, on this. |
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09-21-26 carib
Ft
Revolut’s loan-to-deposit ratio, a key metric of any deposit-taking lender, is an unusually low 6 per cent. (The typical bank hovers around 100 per cent.) But in line with his low-risk, capital-light mantra, Storonsky insists he will go nowhere near the norm. “We don’t plan to have exposure of more than 10-20 per cent,” he says. Even those loans that Revolut does bring on to its balance sheet will be sold again in whole, or through securitisations. The model, he says, is “to have effectively zero risk for the business”.
Maybe we will all end up banking with Revolut..
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09-21-26 carib
Saylor (strategy) up 65% in the last 40 days.
someone still likes Bitcoins.. |
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09-21-26 carib
Savo: no offence intended, but "ranting" means being angry at something on which we have no control, and repeatedly talking about it.
Now, I find the idea of moving to Russia in order to enjoy greater freedom as.. extreme and baseless. Try moving to moscow and rant against Putin on line, just to get a taste of it.
My guess is if you already have a very large bank account in a non-eu bank without an EU branch, nothing will happen to you if you move to the EU, except for CRS.. but if it was me, I would hold a personal account with a bank with EU branch, and a corporate account with the other one.
There are enough problems surrounding us to spend our time talking about them. Better concentrate on solutions, IMHO. |
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09-21-26 savo
| thank you mo-mon for the comment... Unfortunately my children and grandchildren are well spread in this hemisphere. But I would more east otherwise. |
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09-21-26 savo
carib... this conversation started because amateur said:
Decadent civilizations are more pleasant to live in than totalitarian powers
to which i more or less answered that the EU has become a tax, surveillance and digital tyranny not a decadent civilizaton.
You said my view was extreme.. and I argued my view.
No you say I rant. Can you explain to me how we can exchange ideas without accusing me of ranting when you do not like what I say?
regarding banks... I do not want to bank in a bank that has offices in the EU.
What the EU is saying now is that if I want that i can not be resident in the EU. That is a serious curtailment of my freedom.
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09-21-26 carib
| Savo: on non eu banks.. the purpose of the directive is to bar non EU banks without a EU branch to fish for new clients in the EU.I personally did not see the need of such a directive, but there are plenty non EU banks with EU branches available, or one can just bank via non EU corporation.Problem solved. |
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09-21-26 carib
| TACO on Houthi, I presume.. |
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09-21-26 carib
| Merlino: problem is AI could take control of weapons, or robots that re connect the electricity. |
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09-21-26 carib
Savo: we have very little influence on rule-making, but we can decide which plane to board, and where to spend time and money.
In this, it is wise to adapt faster than the rule changes.
The rest is mere ranting, even more pointless if one does not vote nor buys political influence.
The "second homes" issue is a spanish one, not a EU one. EU only makes guidelines, mostly non-binding.IMHO there is no need of EU guidelines on housing.
On Italy, to get exemption from reporting you need to pay 300K€ a year flat.Unless you chose that path 3 years ago, and pay only 100K.
Greece is still 100K, and have plenty islands.
Now Greece raised taxes on non EU house purchases to 15%. No EU, just national decision. |
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09-21-26 Merlino
“our model escaped containment. this is terrifying.”
................
Can´t any human being just unplug the system?
They are running on electric power, after all, and are unarmed and helpless, I presume |
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09-21-26 savo
| sorry .. not china... india... |
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09-21-26 savo
gold spot in china 4,972
gold spot in the west 4,343
14% difference
https://metalcharts.org/metals/xau |
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09-21-26 spal
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
·
2m
Oil tanker crunch risks keeping gas prices higher for longer — WSJ
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WSJ ... finally realizes ...
Schpal moves up his stops. |
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09-21-26 spal
AI lab: “our model escaped containment. this is terrifying.”
Everyone else: “holy shit, how?”
AI lab: “well technically the containment had a route to the internet and we gave the model hacking tasks.”
Fucking incredible.
Quote
New York Post
https://x.com/teslaxryan/status/2101522978383052926?s=20
Tech Bros are by definition full of shit. |
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09-21-26 mo-mon
Savo, you may want to consider residing in the Philippines. No CRS if resident, low retirement cost, 7k islands to choose from. Cash still widely used.
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