08-16-26 savo
No matter who sits in the WH
may be the people in the next WH have a different plan.
The point is that Vietnam..the Talibans... before... Iran now.. show that the way to deal with the US is to last.
If the Rodrigato lasts until the next general election... who knows what will happen next.
The US spent a lot of money throwing expensive bombs on Iran... achieved absolutely nothing other than wasting those bombs, kill a few leaders which were replaced by harder leaders... killed also a lot of school girls.. sank the iranian navy (or so they say) which iran can build again.
All DT seems to want now is to have Iran agree to re-open Hormuz.
Then why the war given that the Strait was open before?? |
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08-16-26 carib
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08-16-26 leopardo
| I’ m stressing the point it must be a friendly offer carib. |
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08-16-26 leopardo
What I Mean is that offre Mist be genero us otherwise if everybody holdsout
NO restructuring can take place |
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08-16-26 carib
PDVsa bonds have no CAC clauses (as Ven 27 and 18), so ultimately some sort of poison pill against holdouts must be in the package, IMHO, to avoid free riding.
I guess the debtor would still be unable to issue new bonds for a while, but after all Veny needs foreign investment more than foreign credit, and multilaterals could offer senior creadit meanwhile. |
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08-16-26 carib
Leo: the Veny bondholder committee recently enlarged its membership size.
If I understood correctly the CG/harvard paper, the debtors could offer in exchange a set of new mirror bonds in a public offer (no need of bondholder majority consent) and make ope legis those new bonds "senior" because they could be secured by sequestered oil revenues.
the dissenting bondholders could hold out, but ultimately find themselves unable to enforce their summary judgements.
Point is, if the offer is generous, and the anti-holdout scheme solid, a vast majority will accept the terms, IMHO. |
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08-16-26 leopardo
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08-16-26 leopardo
If bondholders boicott resteucturing nothing
can be done and Us adminidtration desperately
Need debt to be restructured |
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08-16-26 leopardo
| Carina US consent AND Bondholders Consent. |
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08-16-26 carib
No matter who sits in the WH.. ultimately any restructuring of Veny debt requires US consent.
Point is: within a year.. or after Veny elections? |
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08-16-26 savo
right now depend on US decisions.
emphasis on "right now"
the Rodricato is doing the same thing as Iran: last
... lasting means winning.
In a few months DT may lose both houses... becoming the lamest of all ducks... his party should fire him for incompetence and senility... but they will probably not... he will then double down on his mistakes and bring back the Democans in 2028.
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08-16-26 carib
| I am not sure if the CG paper is just an academic argument, or coordinated with Treasury. Terms of any debt restructuring and access to oil revenue, right now depend on US decisions. |
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08-16-26 savo
i think these guys are confused. The reason to restructure is to regain market access.
Access to the market requires that veni restructures and is current only on its market debt (bonds and bank loans).
arbitration awards, legal claims, commercial trade claims and oil debts, and a range of obligations to countries like China, Iran, and Russia can wait and should be dealt with differently.
Bonded debt does not need reconciliation... it is what it is... and yes, some have Cacs and some do not have Cacs... so there will be hold outs... the reduce holdouts to a minimum the solution is not to invent how to screw them but to make an offer they can't refuse.
Regarding DSA.. that is an invention of the IMF to give work to its employees. Nobody has a clue what oil prices will be tomorrow... least of all what will the price be in 10 years time. Without that price the rest is pointless. |
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08-16-26 carib
| https://www.clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/venezuelas-debt-restructuring-an-alternative-path |
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08-16-26 spal
| Savo - on Open AI - very interesting. Sounds like a self referential Ponzi. |
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