04-21-26 spal
"pump Delcy pump".
===
Funny how we got here ... but yes. |
|
04-21-26 savo
| will he lift sanctions or continue with ineffective licenses? |
|
04-21-26 panasonic
"Therefore, pursuant to section 303(a)(7) of the Act, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6)"
Translation: "pump Delcy pump". |
|
04-21-26 spal
| Trump: I have declared a national emergency under Executive Order 14156, and I further determine that action to expand the domestic petroleum production, refining, and logistics capacity is necessary to avert an industrial resource or critical technology item shortfall that would severely impair national defense capability. Therefore, pursuant to section 303(a)(7) of the Act, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act for the purpose of expanding such capability. |
|
04-21-26 spal
| That is some heavy fear mongering. |
|
04-21-26 spal
ran is reportedly planning a single coordinated strike that could wipe out 32% of global oil supply.
The targets, according to Tasnim News Agency:
- Yanbu pipeline in Saudi Arabia
- Fujairah oil facility in the UAE
- Full Houthi closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
|
|
04-21-26 spal
|
04-21-26 spal
Recent Global Energy Infrastructure Incidents (Apr 15–21, 2026):
🔹 Apr 15–16: Geelong Refinery (Australia) – Massive fire/explosion in Viva Energy’s Mogas unit; burned 13+ hours.
🔹 Apr 18: BP Cherry Point Refinery (USA) – Explosion/fire; 3–4 injuries.
🔹 Mid-April: Pemex Dos Bocas (Mexico) – Second fire in weeks at Olmeca refinery.
🔹 April 19: The Mintia power plant in Romania (slated to be the EU's largest gas unit) was engulfed in flames during a critical testing phase.
🔹 April 19: Reports of "pressure irregularities" and small fires at the ADNOC Ruwais refinery aux-systems in the UAE.
🔹 Apr 20: HPCL Pachpadra Refinery (India) – Fire at new facility just before inauguration.
Someone is targetting NATO-aligned infrastructure.
Might be:
➡️ Ababil of Minab: A pro-Iran hacker group that recently claimed successful intrusions into over 4,000 industrial devices (specifically Rockwell Automation PLCs) globally.
or
➡️ NoName057(16): A pro-Russian hacktivist group that officially joined the "Iranian coalition" in March 2026 to target NATO-aligned infrastructure.
|
|
04-21-26 spal
Recent Global Energy Infrastructure Incidents (Apr 15–21, 2026):
🔹 Apr 15–16: Geelong Refinery (Australia) – Massive fire/explosion in Viva Energy’s Mogas unit; burned 13+ hours.
🔹 Apr 18: BP Cherry Point Refinery (USA) – Explosion/fire; 3–4 injuries.
🔹 Mid-April: Pemex Dos Bocas (Mexico) – Second fire in weeks at Olmeca refinery.
🔹 April 19: The Mintia power plant in Romania (slated to be the EU's largest gas unit) was engulfed in flames during a critical testing phase.
🔹 April 19: Reports of "pressure irregularities" and small fires at the ADNOC Ruwais refinery aux-systems in the UAE.
🔹 Apr 20: HPCL Pachpadra Refinery (India) – Fire at new facility just before inauguration.
Someone is targetting NATO-aligned infrastructure.
Might be:
➡️ Ababil of Minab: A pro-Iran hacker group that recently claimed successful intrusions into over 4,000 industrial devices (specifically Rockwell Automation PLCs) globally.
or
➡️ NoName057(16): A pro-Russian hacktivist group that officially joined the "Iranian coalition" in March 2026 to target NATO-aligned infrastructure.
|
|
04-20-26 spal
Hormuzian Uncertaintly Theory.
Negotiations on, negotiations off.
Strait on, strait off.
War on, war off. |
|
04-20-26 spal
| Carib - yes - they are all really great example of what this is all about. |
|
04-20-26 spal
SPAL originated, was the LatAm export import bank you once suggested.
===
Yes an old friend of mine, Jaime Rivera, went on to manage (CEO) this bank (Bladex) at one time - so I remember it well. |
|
04-20-26 carib
Spal: the AAPL position would have netted several millions.. if I had not sold it when it reached 500% profit..
What I mean is that to make real money, rather than just slowly increasing your capital, you need to identify a few real winners and invest in their equity early enough.
Of course, most bets end up into deceptions, but a few good ones compensate easily all the bad bets.
Another case, SPAL originated, was the LatAm export import bank you once suggested.
Went from 2$ to 25$ (and there I divorced it)
|
|
04-20-26 leopardo
I don’t buy the odious debt theory Savo.
Anyway I May sell 10% of my position before summer holidays. |
|
04-20-26 spal
that is 18 times more that I initially paid.
===
I also remember your Apple position Carib - maybe this was even better? |
|
04-20-26 carib
Savo: I hate the term "populace".
As far as I remember, the oppo never questioned Veny debt, even under AN 2015, except for the PDVsa 2020 secured by CITGO, the phantom 2036 bond and maybe PDVsa 22 6%.
The one who does not have good record with honouring debt.. is Trump (as a businessman).
The issue, IMHO, is we need a restructuring accepted on a bi-partisan level, given Delcy is the outcome of a blatantly falsified election.
She is doing a good job, now, we need a restructuring that is not going to be questioned by a freely elected successor. |
|
04-20-26 carib
FWIW:
US President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend a ceasefire with Iran if a deal between Washington and Tehran cannot be reached before the two-week pause ends on Wednesday. |
|
04-20-26 savo
leo.. hope for a restructuring before the evil psycho comes in and brings Haussmann and advocate of "odious debt".. for him all veni debt is odious.
"Odious debt is a legal theory in international law that states that national debt incurred by a despotic regime is not enforceable, as it is considered a personal debt of the government rather than a debt of the state. This concept suggests that such debts should not bind the nation, especially if they were incurred without the consent of the populace and not for their benefit." |
|
04-20-26 leopardo
| I can bear a 30% fall in prices even if I would not like it. |
|
04-20-26 leopardo
I May sell 10% of my position before July and
Keep the rest. It is not very much overweighted in my
portfolio(around 16% right now) |
|
04-20-26 carib
Leo: the difference, IMHO, is now we can sell easily, at a profit.
|
|
04-20-26 carib
|
04-20-26 carib
Good for Spaldo!
my own per AMPX today broke new records, trading above 20$.
that is 18 times more that I initially paid.
Those are the kind of bets that make some real difference, IMHO. |
|
04-20-26 carib
for the record: I tested Claude AI on PDVsa bonds.. and the answer, after discussion was:
That’s a fair and insightful test — and the short answer is: for real‑time trading data, a well‑informed human with direct market access will always beat me. |
|
04-20-26 leopardo
Let's wait and see.
Nothing different of what we did the last 8 years.... |
|
04-20-26 leopardo
|
04-20-26 carib
| Savo: I share that view.. if veny trend towards normality continues. |
|
04-20-26 savo
| i think that 26% of total claim is too low. Time will tell... |
|
04-20-26 spal
LWLG at 14.70
===
Bravo - I hope you have a bunch!
|
|
04-20-26 spaldo
|
04-20-26 spal
Kuwait has just declared force majeure on oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz
No more oil or refined products will come from Kuwait, at least for the foreseeable future.
🧵 |
|
04-20-26 spal
CHINESE Xi Jinping Tells Saudi Crown Prince: Strait of Hormuz Must Stay Open for Global Trade
Chinese President Xi Jinping stated during a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that "the Strait of Hormuz should remain open for normal passage.
===
Chickety China |
|
04-20-26 carib
After Veny bond sanctions were introduced, I put those bonds on my "dead money account" and considered them worth zilch.
Added some post sanctions lifting, and moved to "live money account".
I account them at market, consider Veny owes me the whole claim, and know that if I sell now I can cash about 26% of said claim.
Difficult to anticipate how the restructuring or debt for equity exchange will work out.
I just know the debtor has assets (liquid by physics, but not by finance) worth a large multiple of total debt.. so debt for equity would make sense.
Do not know if tump has plans or what will happen after Trump. |
|
04-20-26 carib
|
04-20-26 carib
Amateur: I guess the issue with oil price is: for how long?
if oil goes to 200$ for three months, and then back to 60$.. it is just an hiccup. If it stays at 120$ for years.. it's just compensating for long term inflation.
High oil price is good for renewables, so I am biased on this.. |
|
04-20-26 carib
My meter is the present and expected future cost of my living standard. as long as the purchasing power of my estate increases, that is OK.
If the nominal value of my estate doubles, but the price of real estate or cooks doubles too.. there is no real gain.
if assets are liquid, it is irrelevant if they distribute coupons or dividends or just appreciate, except from a taxation point of view.
AAPL shares, btw, historically performed way better than bullion. |
|
04-20-26 carib
Sweden has intelligence indicating that Russia is systematically manipulating data to fool Ukraine’s western allies into believing its economy has withstood the strain of its lavish war spending and western sanctions
|
|
04-20-26 amateur
DT gives the impression of being terrified of >120 dollars WTI; thus he might give in a lot. Or scale up war a lot too if he thinks that is the way. Or suspend US oil exports. Or bomb the Vatican. Or ally with Putin. Any or several or all of the above...always declaring total victory.
The only seemingly intelligent move was blockading Iran. Lets see if he can sustain it. |
|
04-20-26 spal
The "private political meeting" scheduled for today, Sunday, April 19, 2026, is widely understood among analysts as a high-stakes War Cabinet session at the White House.
CENTCOM Status ... Critical. |
|
04-20-26 spal
| Reports indicate the drones targeted the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group and auxiliary support vessels enforcing the blockade. While CENTCOM’s Phalanx CIWS and Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) intercepted a majority of the swarm, unconfirmed reports suggest a "kinetic impact" on a support tender. |
|
04-20-26 panasonic
Savo, yes in the context of our fiat money discussion we are all underperforming those who 100% invested in Gold.
I suppose diversification is reason why you are not selling Pdvsa bonds and buying gold right away, otherwise what is the case to stay?
|
|
Board
