10-28-26 leopardo
How do you see the Bovespa Carib?
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10-28-26 spal
| Miami - capital of Latin America. |
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10-28-26 victor
Simón Levy
As I reported hours ago, Flávio Bolsonaro has arrived safely in United States.
The mastermind behind this operation is U.S. Secretary of State
@SecRubio
.
From the United States, free and safe, Flávio will lead the opposition against Lula. |
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10-27-26 carib
no 61 seats on either side was a given, I presume.
Bibi might be caretaker for a few more weeks.. |
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10-27-26 panasonic
| Israel's first election exit polls point to a narrow lead for the bloc seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but neither side is projected to win the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. While Netanyahu's Likud emerges as the country's largest party, Arab parties are projected to make substantial gains, potentially complicating efforts to form the next government. |
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10-27-26 carib
Curioser and curioser..
arab parties won the israeli elections, today? |
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10-27-26 panasonic
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10-27-26 carib
| El Aissami flagged as "captured" on the ICE website. |
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10-27-26 spal
One must be really crooked to get impeached by his own party..
===
Clearly I am not advising my son.
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10-27-26 carib
| Departamento de Estado publica la transcripción de la llamada del alto funcionario en la que habla de que Delcy Rodríguez debe dejar el cargo el año que viene:
"Una vez que esas dos cosas estén en marcha —el nuevo TSJ a finales de este año, el nuevo CNE muy poco después, y ese trabajo ya está comenzando—, lo que debería suceder en ese momento es que entonces tendrán que declarar —Delcy tendrá que declarar— una vacante en la presidencia, una vacante permanente. Hasta ahora no lo han hecho. Una vez declarada una vacante permanente, se abre, según su constitución vigente, un plazo de seis meses para celebrar nuevas elecciones. Y el CNE, este nuevo CNE apolítico, determinará entonces la fecha de esa elección, cuándo debe realizarse y cuándo debe ser". |
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10-27-26 carib
| One must be really crooked to get impeached by his own party.. |
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10-27-26 spal
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10-27-26 spal
| My son is currently working on the Paxon campaign as a paid staffer. I will check in with him on that at some point. |
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10-27-26 spal
| Yes ... we are slipping back a bit towards a more emotional age. This is not a great comfort. |
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10-27-26 carib
someone said that nowadays politics = algorithm+hatred.
Not my cup of tea (nor glass of wine) |
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10-27-26 spal
| Carib - I like the way you framed that. We would definitely pour another glass of wine should this an in personal discussion. |
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10-27-26 carib
| sorry.. equal, rather than true. |
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10-27-26 carib
SPAL: certainly all opinions are relevant, because they can, to a certain degree, influence events (such as every single vote in an election can be relevant) but it is a clear fallacy that all opinions are true.
10 million members of the "flat earth society" would not make the globe any less or more round.
Ptolemy and Copernicus were both respected astronomers.. but one was wrong and the other right.. |
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10-27-26 spal
| And I am concerned that in general the amount of brainwashing and programming is increasing ... Goebbels was really born too early (he would be very much at home nowadays) and this is a very nasty thought. |
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10-27-26 spal
| Yes true ... but surely you do not think that all opinions are equal? |
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10-27-26 carib
| I very much concur (with SPAL and Churchill) on the idiocy of the general public.. |
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10-27-26 carib
I think we all have access to abundant (true or fake) information, and AI agents. but what qualifies us are our own very personal opinions, after all.
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10-27-26 spal
Clearly there is a growing protest vote around Trump (as the "dislike" factor is growing. But Musk is pouring vast sums into the races (insane and I would have outlawed this ... but no one asks me) ... and of course one must never underestimate the idiocy of the general public.
Best I can do. |
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10-27-26 carib
Netanyahu's Likud, right-wing parties push to extend Israeli election voting past 10 p.m.
Israel got the brasil flu? |
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10-27-26 spal
| Carib I don't have many personal opinions on anything ... mostly I find my own mind a cypher ... |
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10-27-26 carib
| my own opinion is the key is the % of abstentions, usually high in mid-terms. |
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10-27-26 carib
I was just asking for a personal opinion.
we will find out next week, anyway. |
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10-27-26 spal
| So the current prediction is a flip to the Democrats ... but it could be a coin toss ... let's see what X factors enter the equation at this late stage. |
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10-27-26 spal
U.S. Senate
Probability of Majority: Forecast models rate control of the Senate as extremely tight, giving Democrats approximately a 57% probability of flipping the chamber, compared to a 43% probability for Republicans retaining control.
Projected Seat Count: The median model projection sits at 51 Democratic-held seats to 49 Republican-held seats.
Closest Battlegrounds: The overall outcome hinges on five core toss-up contests:
Maine (R-held): Rated as a tight toss-up (~52% D / 48% R).
Iowa (R-held): Rated as a close contest (~55% D / 45% R).
Ohio (R-held): Rated near even (~56% D / 44% R).
Texas (R-held): Rated as highly competitive (~56% D / 44% R).
Georgia (D-held): Serves as a primary defensive hold for Democrats. |
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10-27-26 spal
What Is the Republican "Structural Advantage" in Lower-Density States?
In U.S. Senate modeling, the term "structural advantage" refers to systemic features of the Senate's design and modern geographic voting patterns that provide Republicans with an easier path to a baseline number of seats. Political scientists and nonpartisan analysts define this advantage across three main dimensions:
1. Equal State Representation (Constitutional Malapportionment)
Under Article I of the U.S. Constitution, every state receives exactly two U.S. Senators regardless of population. Lower-population states—such as Wyoming (~580,000 residents), Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, and West Virginia—have equal Senate weight to heavily populated states like California (~39 million) or New York (~19 million). Because lower-density rural states outnumber high-density urban states, the equal-representation rule inherently gives rural regions greater proportional power per capita in the Senate.
2. Geographic Partisan Sorting & Decreased Ticket-Splitting
Over the past two decades, American voters have increasingly sorted along urban-rural lines:
Rural & Small-Town Reliance: Low-density, rural, and working-class suburban regions have aligned solidly with the Republican Party.
Nationalization of Politics: Historical "ticket-splitting" (voters choosing a senator from one party and a president from another) has declined sharply. Voters in heavily red states routinely vote straight-ticket Republican in federal elections, creating a steep uphill climb for Democratic candidates regardless of local campaign dynamics.
3. A High "Floor" of Safe Seats
In any given election cycle, Republicans start with a high baseline "floor" of uncompetitive seats. Out of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot in 2026, roughly 15 to 16 are located in deeply conservative, low-density states (such as Wyoming, Idaho, South Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and West Virginia) where the Republican nominee routinely wins by double-digit margins. Consequently, Democrats must win a disproportionate share of competitive swing states and lean-Republican territory to secure a 51-seat majority.
The 4 to 5 Key Toss-Up Races and What Can Swing Them
Nonpartisan election handicappers, including AP News, identify a narrow group of battleground states that will decide control of the Senate:
2026 KEY SENATE BATTLEGROUNDS
1. Maine (Republican-Held)
Incumbent: Sen. Susan Collins (R)
The Dynamics: Maine is a blue-leaning state in presidential elections (Harris won Maine by nearly 7 points in 2024). Collins has maintained her seat for five terms by cultivating an independent, New England centrist profile.
Swing Factors: Midterm political sentiment toward the White House, split-ticket voter willingness, and Maine’s Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) system, which allows third-party voter preferences to reallocate to major-party candidates in close counts.
2. Georgia (Democratic-Held)
Incumbent: Sen. Jon Ossoff (D)
The Dynamics: Georgia remains one of the tightest battleground states in the country (Trump carried Georgia by 2.2 points in 2024, while Democrats won both Senate seats in recent cycles).
Swing Factors: Black voter turnout, suburban persuasion in the fast-growing Metro Atlanta counties (Gwinnett, Cobb, Fulton), and the Republican challenger’s ability to consolidate rural turnout while remaining appealing to moderate suburban voters.
3. North Carolina (Republican-Held)
Incumbent / Status: Open seat following incumbent retirement/primary shifts.
The Dynamics: North Carolina is a perennial razor-thin state (Trump won by 3.3 points in 2024). Open-seat contests in North Carolina typically generate massive fundraising and national group spending.
Swing Factors: Explosive population growth in the Research Triangle (Raleigh-Durham) and Charlotte suburbs favors Democratic recruitment, while lower-density eastern and western rural counties remain strong Republican bases. The contest often turns on unaffiliated voters, who represent the largest voting block in the state.
4. Texas (Republican-Held)
Incumbent: Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Primary Challenger Ken Paxton
The Dynamics: Highly contested GOP primary dynamics between establishment and populist factions have opened a competitive window for Democrats.
Swing Factors: Democratic candidate performance among suburban voters in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin; voter turnout across the Rio Grande Valley; and whether GOP primary battles leave the general election nominee financially or politically bruised.
5. Emerging Expansion Battlegrounds (Kansas, Iowa, Alaska)
The Dynamics: Nonpartisan handicappers, including PBS Washington Week, have noted shifting ratings in traditional red-leaning states like Kansas, Iowa, and Alaska into competitive categories.
Swing Factors: Economic conditions (agricultural trade and energy prices), presidential approval ratings in a first-term midterm, and local non-traditional or independent candidate surges that break straight-party voting patterns. |
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10-27-26 spal
I don't know enough personally but here's a summary I found:
Consensus Forecast Summary
Seat Swing Margin: To secure a 51-seat majority (or a 50–50 split with a tie-breaking vote), Democrats require a net gain of 3 to 4 seats.
Handicapper Outlook: While Republicans maintain a structural advantage in several lower-density states, nonpartisan models project that Democrats have an expanded offensive target list. Most consensus models rate chamber control as nearly even, with slight odds favoring a Democratic flip depending on the outcome of 4 to 5 key toss-up races. |
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10-27-26 carib
SPAL: forecast for US senate post mid-terms?
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10-27-26 spal
According to the book, Kushner got Tillerson fired for a $50 million UAE payment because Tillerson supported Qatar. This panicked Qatar because they realized Kushner was a pay-to-play operative, so they bought Kushner's New York City apartments, which were in the red, hoping this would help.
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Here's hoping that this pencil necked prick goes to the slammer. |
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10-27-26 spal
Flávio Bolsonaro reportedly left Brazil 🇧🇷 and is traveling to the United States 🇺🇸 on a private flight from Argentina 🇦🇷
It is presumed that the Brazilian senator crossed the border into Misiones using his national identity document.
From Puerto Iguazú, he is expected to board a Gulfstream G400 aircraft, registration LV-JQW, belonging to the company Baires Fly S.A.
Argentina lends a hand. |
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10-27-26 carib
For the beleaguered Trump administration, setbacks in Serbia and Brazil raise the specter of a grim winter. If the Trump-endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu falters at the polls and American Republicans get hammered in next week’s midterms, the perception that Mr. Trump’s power is waning could start to congeal. For a presidency whose actual power depends so heavily on the appearance of power, the consolidation of the belief that the world has passed Peak Trump would be deeply damaging.
WSJ |
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10-27-26 carib
| Trump gave a big help to Lula by flirting with Bolsonaro. |
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10-27-26 carib
| Israelis flock to polls as turnout surges to 31.5% nationwide, highest since 1973 |
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