01-07-26 carib
| Savo: I just hope Trump does not declare Veny bonded debt "odious" or decides to liquidate PDVsa.. |
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01-07-26 savo
If the US takes Veni's oil and pays into an account in the US run by Trump's family office...
shouldn't the US also take on board Veni's debt?
What is 150bn in the big pond of 37 trn of US debt?
say a veni hospital needs money... how would that work...? Delcy calls Waltz... and Waltz sends a bank transfer to Santander Caracas?
A school needs a new aircon... check on the mail?
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01-07-26 carib
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01-07-26 pillz
| volume is another matter, if like bolero, nobody wants to trade pdvsa, of cause there is no volume , but i send to bolero the same , still waiting their response ... |
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01-07-26 panasonic
All those billions in frozen accounts, who imagined...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/maduro-wife-injured-us-forces-burst-compound-rcna252687 |
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01-07-26 carib
| Pill: yes, but did you check the volumes? |
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01-07-26 pillz
Pill: meaning?
//
that they can trade on Deutsche Borse ... |
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01-07-26 carib
| Thanks SPAL for the link. Interesting. |
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01-07-26 carib
| The news below might be significant: does Trump wish to keep PDVsa, or dismantle it? |
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01-07-26 carib
La estatal Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) confirmó este miércoles que mantiene negociaciones con Estados Unidos para concretar la venta de “volúmenes de petróleo”.
“Este proceso se desarrolla bajo esquemas similares a los vigentes con empresas internacionales, como Chevron, y está basado en una transacción estrictamente comercial, con criterios de legalidad, transparencia y beneficio para ambas partes", señaló la empresa en un comunicado difundido en sus redes sociales. |
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01-07-26 carib
PDVSA 9 11/17/21
35.50
-
36.50 |
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01-07-26 carib
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01-07-26 pillz
| https://live.deutsche-boerse.com/bond/usp7807hap03-petroleos-de-venezuela-s-a-9-11-21?mic=XFRA |
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01-07-26 pillz
Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. 9% 11/21 Bond | A1GZSW | USP7807HAP03 | Price
Jun 01, 2025
XFRA: NEW INSTRUMENT AVAILABLE - 02.06.2025 - BONBF_01
Das Instrument USP7807HAP03 PETROLEOS D VEN. 11/21 BOND hat seinen ersten Handelstag am 02.06.2025: CONTINUOUS AUCTION SPECIALIST, PAG PAG_BON, SettlCurr EUR, CCP N
The instrument USP7807HAP03 PETROLEOS D VEN. 11/21 BOND has its first trading date on 02.06.2025: CONTINUOUS AUCTION SPECIALIST, PAG PAG_BON, SettlCurr EUR, CCP N |
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01-07-26 spal
Under the right conditions, Venezuela’s oil output can scale fast, and even “smaller” growth numbers matter in a commodity market where prices are set at the margin.
Start at roughly 900kbpd today. Fix property rights and the rules of the game, and 1.5mbpd within 18 months is a realistic first milestone. That would be led by the majors with the most knowledge, the deepest balance sheets, and the biggest unresolved claims, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, and potentially Shell and ENI. All burned in the past. All sitting on substantial open invoices they will want to recover. ConocoPhillips alone reportedly has an incentive to collect more than US$10bn it is still owed. But let’s be clear, ex Chevron, it is highly unlikely the majors will lean in until there is political stability, clarity on who actually runs the country, and a rock-solid legal framework that cannot be reversed on a whim.
Clear the bottlenecks in pipelines, power, upgrading, and ports, and getting back to 3.5mbpd becomes achievable. Here is where big numbers can be deceptive. Assume it takes US$60bn to get pipes, power, and export infrastructure back into proper shape. That sounds huge until you remember that in 2010, the U.S. shale industry collectively spent more than that on wells alone. Capital exists. Capacity exists. What determines speed is the legal framework. Without it, nothing much changes.
And if the rules get rewritten after Trump, or if Venezuela simply morphs from one corrupt mess into the next, then output gets stuck in the 1.5–3.0mbpd range, at best. That is the downside case. But if the rule of law actually holds, an upside case of 10mbpd over the next decade is not fantasy. It is simply what happens when world-class resources are finally developed by a world-class industry.
And here is the key point: it does not need the upside case to structurally lower prices at the pump, globally. If Venezuela simply becomes a consistent 5mbpd producer, think Canada today, and can hold that level for decades, it would at the very least offset future losses from the U.S. shale industry as its fields mature and decline. In a market where the marginal barrel sets the price, that is enormous.
In fact, you do not even need to wait for 5mbpd. The mere trajectory, Venezuela moving from 0.9mbpd to 1.5mbpd next year, is enough to hurt Brent, because the market is already swimming in supply for 2026 and 2027. Yes, physical commodities price in the present and do not discount the future. But in oil, where paper barrels trade in multiples of the physical market, expectations move prices long before the barrels arrive. Trump’s explicit, determined language can set up paper shorts and push the curve lower well ahead of any meaningful Venezuelan supply hitting the water. Think Q4 2018, when he effectively helped drive Brent from US$90 to US$55 on next to nothing other than an Iran waiver and a change in tone.
Either way, lower-for-longer oil prices would be a blessing for humanity.
A very good piece by Alexander Stahel ... highly recommended:
https://www.thecommoditycompass.com/p/maduro-is-gone-is-that-good-news?r=4lie3a&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay&triedRedirect=true |
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01-07-26 Merlino
I hope they do not do an Irak on us where the haircut was 80%.
...................................
Undoubtedly a risk to consider however this outcome would supposedly goes against the interests of a part of US Fin sector and investors, I presume |
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01-07-26 spal
I hope they do not do an Irak on us where the haircut was 80%.
===
Makes sense - Trump can use this part to deflect the impression that he helped the capitalists ... combine this with a Sovereign Wealth Fund that they will roll out for the "Vene population benefit" claims and optics.
Meanwhile existing production is brought north to Port Arthur for Saudi friend and America service co's provide the ships, diluents and lifting expertise.
Everyone one wins ...
;)
Well actually Trump's friends win.
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01-07-26 savo
victor.... yes... that is the plan.. and I hope it succeeds...
But I do not think it will be a few weeks or months. So things may get derailed for unknown reasons...
I used to care about veni... but given what the veni oppo has done... my only concern is now our bonds...I hope they do not do an Irak on us where the haircut was 80%. |
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01-07-26 carib
BCP Research: Venezuela In Play
In a lighting raid in the middle of the night, U.S. military forces captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The former Venezuelan President was whisked away by helicopter and then airplane to New York, where he was arraigned for a variety of charges. The operation came only a few days after the Trump Administration published its new National Security Strategy, which contained the so-called Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. President Trump said that the US would run Venezuela until it could arrange a transition of power. U.S. oil companies would also play a major role in managing Venezuela’s oil industry.
Although Maduro is gone, his administration remains firmly in control of the armed forces and key institutions. Now that Maduro was removed, people are wondering what lies ahead. With the old cabinet in place, it is doubtful that quick strong international financial support will materialize; moreover, Venezuela still needs a comprehensive bond restructuring due to the size of its debt.
In such a scenario, we estimate NPV recoveries starting around 58c, potentially higher if oil-linked instruments are included, following a Suriname-style precedent to attract investment in the oil sector. US$3,000mm VENZ 12 3/4 08/23/22 and US$3,000mm PDVSA 12 3/4 02/17/22 appear most attractive on the curves based on PDI/Price ratio. |
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01-07-26 spal
Funny if it was combined with an "odious debt" assertion for past claims ...
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01-07-26 spal
| Merlino - I just meant oil then ... in lakes and bays etc ... mostly out of plain sight though. |
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01-07-26 spal
| 100% chance that a Vene Sovereign Wealth Fund will be announced ... |
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01-07-26 Merlino
Unless you thought that this was about "democracy"
...........................
Of course not....however me at least has not given much importance to OFF SHORE oil, given how much they have inland....would you elaborate on this? |
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01-07-26 victor
savo, the 3 phases
1. stabilize the country. mcm would be useless in phase 1.
2. veni oil for the usa and allies. no more china or russia.
3. transition. elections, and a new govt that is friendly to the usa.
this last phase is where mcm will shine.
//
EE.UU. define un proceso en tres fases para Venezuela tras la caída de Maduro
El secretario de Estado de Estados Unidos, Marco Rubio, detalló este martes en el Capitolio el esquema con el que Washington pretende ordenar el escenario posterior a la caída del dictador Nicolás Maduro y encauzar una transición política en Venezuela. En declaraciones a la prensa, Rubio describió un proceso estructurado en tres etapas, con el petróleo como eje central de presión y financiación.
«Tenemos un proceso triple en Venezuela. El primer paso es la estabilización del país. La segunda fase será la recuperación, asegurando que Occidente tenga acceso a los mercados venezolanos. La tercera fase será la transición», afirmó Rubio, sintetizando la estrategia de la Administración Trump para el país sudamericano. |
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01-07-26 spal
Chris Wright ... on Vene oil
https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2008907954653643187/photo/1 |
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01-07-26 carib
The U.S. carried out operations Wednesday to seize two oil tankers linked to Venezuela — one in the North Atlantic and one in the Caribbean Sea, officials said.
The U.S. European Command confirmed the seizure of the Marinera, a Venezuela-linked oil tanker formerly known as Bella-1. It said the vessel was seized for violations of U.S. sanctions and pursuant to a warrant issued by a U.S. federal court after being tracked by USCGC Munro. |
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01-07-26 spal
| Unless you thought that this was about "democracy" |
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01-07-26 spal
| The US is ok with a bit of repression in the meantime as they focus on offshore oil plans. |
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01-07-26 spal
part of the plot, a gate keeper role.
====
Yes - he is chief thug - he will keep the Bolivarian circles in check. Keep "hope" alive among the true believers and the pretense that they are still in control. The worse fear is that a civil war breaks out and more refugees (migrants) are produced.
He got to choose between death or a pay off in Miami or a third country for this job. |
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01-07-26 victor
savo, the US has just annexed veni at no future cost
//
no, you'll see this is not the case.
the threat is keeping the big armada in the carib, which will eventually have to be removed.
time pressure to dismantle, or at least weaken, chavism.
then elections, and the present chavista cupula goes away.
assuming that chavistas dont implode before.
if too many concessions are made to the usa, their chavista supporters may want to eat delcy for breakfast. |
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01-07-26 Merlino
Diosdy, sonething missing here
......................
I wonder if he is part of the plot, a gate keeper role, as somebody must agglutinate/lead/cheat/neutralize the hard core chavista/leftist part of the population, not a small portion of it I guess |
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01-07-26 savo
victor... most likely mcm will become president
i think so... although I hope not. She handled the 2024 election horribly.. she was not well advised or she is simply not smart.
Having said that ... this is a new experiment...the US has just annexed veni at no future cost.
Veni's opposition handed over all veni's wealth to the US in exchange of absolutely nothing.
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01-07-26 victor
savo, somebody said that dt is simply upset because mcm accepted the nobel prize.
that if she had rejected it, saying it belonged to dt, then she would be president right now. |
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01-07-26 victor
savo, most likely mcm will become president in the next few years, when new elections finally take place.
and dt goes away in 3 years. |
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01-07-26 savo
told you so...
The US always preferred the Regime to the opposition....
"US Says It Will Control Venezuela Oil Exports Indefinitely"
good job by MCM |
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01-07-26 panasonic
Diosdy, sonething missing here, his relationship with cubans and Russians is nil.
Without external intelligence he is more than toasted, has even less places to go than Maduro, fight is over for him, maybe La Haya is better place than NY jail? |
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01-07-26 spal
| TRMD running hard - $23 is its "normal" cyclical resistance ... still adding |
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01-07-26 spal
DHT
DHT HOLDINGS INC
12.9050.885 (+7.36%)
Thanks Delta Force ...
|
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01-07-26 spal
| Copper - clean bulk petroleum carriers - oil services cos and weapons ... |
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01-07-26 spal
DHT
DHT HOLDINGS INC
Add to Watchlist
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12.780.76 (+6.32%)
shitco does what a shitco must ... lets capture some more of the ghost fleet ... I have bills to pay
;)
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01-07-26 spal
| Rolls Royce trade still working ... one of the last great white hopes in the UK |
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01-07-26 victor
| Rusia ha mostrado su preocupación por las incautaciones por parte de EE.UU. de petroleros que transportan su petróleo ilícito por todo el mundo e impulsan su economía, y ha tomado la inusual decisión de permitir que los barcos se registren en Rusia in inspección ni otras formalidades, según expertos consultados por WSJ. |
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01-07-26 victor
pt
2 captured, not 1
//
EE.UU. intercepta dos petroleros, uno con bandera rusa, frente a las costas de Venezuela tras varias semanas de persecución
Estados Unidos ha interceptado dos petroleros, uno con bandera rusa vinculado a Venezuela y otro con falsa bandera de Camerún. El primero de ellos fue capturado tras una persecución de más de dos semanas a través del Atlántico y por el que Rusia había desplegado un submarino y un buque de guerra para tratar de obstaculizar las fuerzas estadounidenses.
La operación, reportada por Fox News y CNN, se produce pocas horas después de informaciones de prensa según las cuales Rusia mandó al menos un submarino para escoltar el buque, oficialmente vacío. Conocido inicialmente como el 'Bella 1', este petrolero estaba siendo perseguido por Washington desde que evadió un bloqueo parcial en las costas de Venezuela.
El barco no logró atracar en Venezuela ni cargar petróleo. Aunque el barco está vacío, la Guardia Costera estadounidense lo ha perseguido hasta el Atlántico en un intento de tomar medidas contra una flota de petroleros que transportan crudo ilícito por todo el mundo –la conocida como flota fantasma–, incluyendo el que procede del mercado negro vendido por Rusia.
La tripulación del buque repelió un intento de EE.UU. de abordarlo en diciembre y se adentró en el Atlántico. Mientras la Guardia Costera lo seguía, la tripulación pintó una bandera rusa en un costado, le cambió el nombre a «Marinera» y cambió su matrícula a rusa.
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01-07-26 spal
SLB
SLB Limited
Initial position ... first move in Veni is workover existing wells so in comes the oil services |
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01-07-26 spal
TRMD
TORM PLC A
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21.300.83 (+4.05%)
Clean tankers - rates up, demand up ... Hafnia may make a full offer at some point.
|
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01-07-26 spal
DHT
DHT HOLDINGS INC
12.580.56 (+4.66%)
Tankers
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01-07-26 patient-trader
Russian state-owned media is reporting that U.S. Special Forces are currently trying to board and seize the Russian-flagged Iranian-linked sanctioned crude oil tanker.
....
Good. They should seize ALL Russian tankers |
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01-07-26 victor
spal, already did
//
La Guardia Costera y el Ejército de Estados Unidos capturaron este miércoles el Bella 1, el petrolero que desde hacía semanas eludía la operación para interceptarlo porque rompió el bloqueo estadounidense sobre buque sancionados, después de que Rusia desplegara un submarino y otras embarcaciones para escoltarlo.
En el momento en que se produjo la interceptación y abordaje ya no había ninguna embarcación rusa cerca del Bella 1, según fuentes oficiales. Esto hizo que se abortara cualquier posibilidad de una enfrentamiento entre fuerzas de EE.UU. y de Rusia.
El comando europeo del Pentagono confirmó en un post en X la conclusión de esa operación de interceptación, asegurando que el Departamento de Justicia, el de Seguridad Nacional y el de Defensa se habían hecho cargo del petrolero en aguas del Atlántico Norte por violar las sanciones de Washington. |
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01-07-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
·
1h
VLGC spot is now around $75,000 🔥
FFAs keep moving higher … another +2%
@freightinvestor
$LPG $BWLP |
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01-07-26 spal
$DHT rarely has pre market volume.
Up 4% today on 8K
Looking a very strong Tanker day. |
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01-07-26 spal
Chris Shipping 🚢🚢
@christankerfund
·
1h
Tankers all up pre market.
$FRO +4% on 67K 🔥 |
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01-07-26 spal
| Russian state-owned media is reporting that U.S. Special Forces are currently trying to board and seize the Russian-flagged Iranian-linked sanctioned crude oil tanker, Marinera, in the Northern Atlantic. |
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01-07-26 carib
El Pais
Al rosario de iconos clásicos del chavismo, la foto de Simón Bolívar y la de Hugo Chávez, se sumaba ahora uno más, la imagen del matrimonio de Nicolás Maduro y Cilia Flores tomados de la mano. Por si había sospechas del papel que jugará cada uno a partir de ahora, Cabello encabezó por la noche un recorrido por las calles acompañado por un mini ejército de uniformados que, fusil en mano, prometían defender la patria y garantizar la seguridad de su pueblo. El mensaje estaba claro: frente a los tecnócratas pactistas la fuerza de los fusiles seguía en manos de Cabello.
Durante el vídeo, Cabello omitía cualquier acuerdo de “cooperación conjunta” y calificaba cualquier negociación con Washington como una “traición a la patria” y aseguraba que las fuerzas revolucionarias y los colectivos se mantendrán en las calles para defender la soberanía territorial frente a lo que denomina la “invasión del imperio”.
En pocas horas, las diferencias entre las dos principales familias del chavismo, la que representan los hermanos Rodríguez y la que personifican Cabello y Padrino López, fueron tan obvias que, cuando a medianoche se produjeron varios tiroteos cerca del palacio presidencial contra drones no identificados, rápidamente corrió el rumor de que aquello no era un nuevo ataque de Estados Unidos sino el comienzo de un golpe de Estado de Diosdado Cabello contra la nueva presidenta encargada.
Aunque ambas corrientes del chavismo han escenificado acercamientos, las tensiones exhibidas son un resumen de un enfrentamiento que comenzó mucho antes. Igual que Hugo Chávez eligió antes de su muerte a Nicolás Maduro, y no a Cabello, como su sucesor, esta vez Estados Unidos también ha elegido a Delcy Rodríguez, y no a él, para que conduzca una extraña transición en la que todos se vigilan unos a otros. Unos por pactistas y otros por militaristas, los bloques se han definido, aunque por el momento se expresen en imágenes y gestos. |
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01-07-26 carib
Ft
Beyond the hedonistic bubbles of central Havana, Cuba’s economy is close to collapse. Since 2021, well over 1mn Cubans — a tenth of the population — have fled, according to official figures, and it is hard to find anyone under 40 years old who want to stay. Real wages have collapsed. Hunger — previously rare — has grown, and infant mortality has more than doubled, according to official data.
Yet with Maduro now facing trial in the US, Cuba is confronting even worse prospects, with the end of support from its closest ally Venezuela plunging the island deeper into the void. And Washington, which has over the course of six decades sought to topple Cuba’s communist regime, has indicated it senses the end is near.
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01-07-26 victor
EE.UU. planea abordar un petrolero ruso-iraní que escapó
Estados Unidos afirmó que planea una operación militar y de la Guardia Costera en aguas del Atlántico para abordar un petrolero ruso, proveniente de Irán, y que escapó del bloqueo estadounidense cuando intentaba llegar a Venezuela, según indicaron fuentes de Washington a CBS.
El Marinera, un petrolero que inició su travesía con el nombre Bela-1 y bandera de Guyana en Irán y pasó a la protección de la bandera rusa durante su persecución por parte de EE.UU., está sujeto a sanciones del Departamento del Tesoro y se encuentra en remotas aguas al sur de Islandia. EFE |
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01-07-26 victor
Trump exige a Venezuela que ponga fin a relaciones con China y Rusia, según ABC News
La Administración del presidente estadounidense, Donald Trump, ha comunicado a la presidenta interina de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, que el país deberá cumplir con finalizar relaciones con China, Rusia, Irán y Cuba como parte de una serie de exigencias antes de extraer y comercializar su petróleo, según funcionarios citados por la cadena ABC News. De acuerdo con los funcionarios citados por la cadena, Venezuela debe expulsar a China, Rusia, Irán y Cuba como parte de las exigencias de Estados Unidos que busca ser la única relación petrolera y favorecer a Estados Unidos en la venta de crudo pesado. De acuerdo con uno de ellos, el secretario de Estado, Marco Rubio, afirmó en una sesión informativa privada con legisladores que EE.UU. cree poder presionar a Caracas porque sus petroleros están llenos y advirtió que Venezuela tendría solo un par de semanas antes de caer en insolvencia financiera si no logra vender sus reservas. |
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01-07-26 savo
this is what a colony looks like:
Brent crude futures fell after a Truth Social post from President Trump said officials in Venezuela will transfer "30 to 50 MILLION barrels of high-quality, sanctioned oil" to the U.S.
"This oil will be sold at its market price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States," Trump said.
He added, "I have asked Energy Secretary Chris Wright to execute this plan immediately. The oil will be taken by storage ships and brought directly to unloading docks in the United States."
The US ambassador to the United Nations on Monday said that enemies of his country cannot be allowed to control vast oil reserves, such as the ones in Venezuela under President Nicolas Maduro.
Mike Waltz spoke less than two hours before Maduro made his first court appearance, not far from UN headquarters in Manhattan. Maduro is charged with narco-trafficking, among other charges, and has pleaded not guilty. "We're not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be used as a base of operation for our nation's adversaries," Waltz said. "You cannot continue to have the largest energy reserves in the world under the control of adversaries of the United States, under the control of illegitimate leaders, and not benefiting the people of Venezuela."
He insisted, however, that despite the US president himself saying that his administration will be "running" Venezuela, the US will not be "occupying" the Latin American nation. "There is no war against Venezuela or its people," Waltz told the UN Security Council (UNSC). "We are not occupying a country." |
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01-06-26 savo
The psycho can't keep her mouth shut for one day.
María Corina Machado, la líder del partido de oposición de Venezuela, dijo que la presidenta interina Delcy Rodríguez es «quizá incluso más despiadada» que su predecesor Nicolás Maduro. |
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01-06-26 pillz
Venezuela’s Rule by Fear Endures After Maduro Capture: Photos
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-06/venezuela-s-rule-by-fear-endures-after-maduro-capture-photos?srnd=homepage-americas |
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01-06-26 savo
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01-06-26 savo
| Finalmente, la tercera condición estipula la expulsión definitiva de agentes de inteligencia y redes de influencia provenientes de Irán, Cuba y otros países hostiles a los intereses de seguridad de los Estados Unidos. Estas demandas buscan reconfigurar la política exterior venezolana y alinearla con los estándares de seguridad hemisférica. |
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01-06-26 savo
is this true?
Estados Unidos estaría sopesando el levantamiento de sanciones a Venezuela
Por Redaccion/RG
6 de enero de 2026
en Actualidad, Política
Redacción (ALN).- El Gobierno de Estados Unidos ha iniciado evaluaciones para la posible eliminación de las sanciones económicas contra Venezuela, abriendo la puerta a que el país recupere el acceso a sus activos financieros internacionales.
Esta medida surge como consecuencia directa de la operación militar ejecutada el pasado sábado por orden de la Administración Trump, en la cual un equipo de fuerzas especiales detuvo a Nicolás Maduro y a su esposa, Cilia Flores, tras una serie de bombardeos tácticos en puntos neurálgicos de Caracas como Fuerte Tiuna y el aeropuerto de La Carlota.
En este nuevo contexto político, funcionarios estadounidenses han establecido canales de comunicación con Delcy Rodríguez, quien ha asumido la presidencia encargada tras la captura del mandatario.
Para proceder con el levantamiento de las restricciones financieras, la Casa Blanca ha planteado tres exigencias fundamentales e innegociables al nuevo mando en el Palacio de Miraflores. En primer lugar, se exige el cese total del flujo de drogas desde territorio venezolano hacia el exterior; en segundo término, el Estado debe detener de inmediato la venta de petróleo a naciones consideradas adversarias de Washington.
https://alnavio.es/estados-unidos-estaria-sopesando-el-levantamiento-de-sanciones-a-venezuela-tras-la-captura-de-maduro/ |
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01-06-26 spal
"This is a work of fiction. All names, characters, businesses, places, events, and incidents in this book are either the products of the author's imagination or used in a fictitious manner. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, or actual events is purely coincidental."
;)
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01-06-26 Merlino
| Just a fortunate coincidence I guess that after years going and coming the sale was agreed upon a short time before maduro’s abduction |
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01-06-26 spal
Citgo's enterprise value pre-sale was estimated at $13 billion by court advisors and up to $18 billion by Venezuelan officials, making Elliott's $5.9–7.3 billion acquisition a significant discount.
Post-Maduro capture, its value has surged due to anticipated sanction lifts and regime stability, potentially valuing the assets closer to $13–18 billion or higher with improved operations. As of January 6, 2026, the deal positions Elliott to benefit from rising asset values amid U.S.-led rebuilding efforts in Venezuela, with Citgo's refineries (e.g., the 479,000 bpd Lake Charles facility ranked among the top 10 most competitive on the Gulf Coast) driving cash flows
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01-06-26 spal
| Copper racing to an all time high has driven this (although first copper at Florence will be announced at any day and this is important). At these levels copper has overshot, but that's markets. A bit piece is stockpiling in the US based on speculation of tariffs from the great orange man in the whitest of houses. |
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01-06-26 spal
| TGB ... retail enthusiasm right now ... sentiment driven, but may have legs ... Hudbay shows how. I have not trimmed, but trail stops |
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01-06-26 spal
| TDW ... leading marine service co to offshore ... bumping back up. |
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01-06-26 spal
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01-06-26 spal
| Rolls Royce continued to rally in defense orders ... |
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01-06-26 spal
| TRMD is a "range" play BTW ... $23 is target and then stops go on. |
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01-06-26 spal
| TRMD ... play on sanctions and interdiction of ghost fleet ... Torm is a major clean petroleum transporter. |
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01-06-26 spal
BORR
BORR DRILLING LTD
Adding ... jackup rigs ... resource nationalism play |
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01-06-26 spal
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01-06-26 savo
spal.. oil is a very complex business.
I receive good research from my bank and read a lot about it.
Suffice to say that many countries are exporters and importers at the same time of different grades or from different locations.
The US is one of those and given its proximity is the natural client of veni. You know all that.
The interesting part is that the misguided policy that started with Obama could change in one of two ways. Normalizing or Colonizing.
They chose the latter.
Oil is not the only factor though...other metals are too.
In any case.. i do not buy the cheap oil story and I do not think it will last whatever wall street says. Who knows what kind of deal Trump might have agreed with the saudis to keep oil prices low. But that has an expiry date,
The US is preparing for future events.
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01-06-26 Merlino
Concerning oil it might pay more to keep the crude off the market.
..........................................
This is one of the main risks. The other main one is to dismiss some kind of creditors like bondholders. I think/hope these risks will not materialize then I am holding neither trimming nor selling. What about other colores?
My rough evaluation is that people paying 35-38 for pdvsa papers considering current risks (and relative lack of liquidity) expect at least a double from current price levels and they may have some info about where things are going |
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01-06-26 pillz
A group of Venezuela's creditors discussed how the US ouster of President Nicolas Maduro will affect their ability to recoup some of their investment in Venezuela's defaulted debt.
The creditors are optimistic that negotiations could resume as soon as this year, and some anticipate that debt restructuring talks may begin if Venezuela's acting president manages to retain control and ease tensions with the US.
One proposal under consideration by the creditor committee would combine Venezuela's sovereign and oil-company debt into a single restructuring, using a type of oil-backed security to induce more creditors on board.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/venezuela-bondholders-huddle-as-maduro-ouster-fans-payout-hopes?srnd=homepage-americas |
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01-06-26 spal
Veni is a big treasure ..too many people want it.
===
Not in any way close to the way you think.
The US wants to cap if possible the migrant flood - as to the neighboring countries. The US also wants China and Russia the fuck out of our backyard.
Concerning oil it might pay more to keep the crude off the market. It like any ... repeat any resource ... is only of value if can be produced and delivered to a market. None of this is really in the hands of the Venezuelans in the way it is generally understood. |
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01-06-26 panasonic
Apparently there was a messy situation with some drones and soldiers got nervous and fired.
Several gangs operate inside Veni, we'll see how that plays out. |
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01-06-26 victor
| EE.UU. se prepara para interceptar un petrolero vinculado con Venezuela pese a los reclamos de Rusia, según fuentes |
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01-06-26 savo
a counter coup was expected... the question is who is giving it.. the ELN and its associates (may be with Chinese and Russian support) or the MariaCorines.
Veni is a big treasure ..too many people want it.
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01-06-26 carib
Panas: thanks.
Personally, I hope they get rid of Diosdato &C.
A job half done rarely works. |
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01-06-26 carib
The Jerusalem Post has received multiple indications that the US is considering some intervention in the ongoing Iran protests. At the same time, Israel is also checking if the removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro will make action against the Iranian regime possible.
It appears that Israel was surprised by America's intervention in Venezuela and that this action scrambled Israeli calculations about what might be possible in the Islamic Republic.
Until the intervention by US President Donald Trump in Caracas, most Israeli officials did not view the protests against Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as necessarily approaching the volume necessary to achieve regime change. |
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01-06-26 panasonic
| Carib, same info from several friends in ccs, Delcy in a "do or die" situation, we'll see. |
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01-06-26 carib
Videos difundidos en redes sociales aseguraron este lunes que se registraban presuntos enfrentamientos en las adyacencias del Palacio de Miraflores, sede del Ejecutivo venezolano, aunque la situación permaneció confusa durante varias minutos.
En distintos audiovisuales que circularon en plataformas digitales se escuchaban detonaciones y se observaba a grupos armados rodeando el perímetro del palacio presidencial, lo que dio lugar a especulaciones sobre un posible intento de golpe de Estado, especialmente por ocurrir horas después de la juramentación de Delcy Rodríguez como presidenta encargada.
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01-06-26 carib
ft
Venezuela’s government has launched a crackdown in the wake of the US’s capture of Nicolás Maduro, arresting journalists and deploying paramilitary forces to suppress any show of support for the authoritarian leader’s ousting.
Gun-toting paramilitaries known as colectivos have been deployed to the streets of Caracas under a state of emergency announced on Monday, and media unions said 14 journalists and media workers — 11 from foreign media — have been detained.
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01-06-26 victor
carib, Cuba just lost lifeline, then.
//
not necessarily.
i read somewhere the claudia s of mexico is increasing the quantities of oil mexico gives cuba, to make up for vz's oil.
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01-06-26 savo
victor.. i agree with all of that.
Add to that Guaido and Lopez and the AN2015 in exile and the money that they stole from US aid, Citgo and Monomeros.
I would only add that EGU is a motherf***ing human excrement that went into the dutch embassy during the day of the election while MCM was asking people to go to the streets (many of which ended in jail or dead)...then made a deal to leave the country... and did not fulfill his commitments while his daughter and son in law were still in veni... the rest you know.
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