09-11-26 leopardo
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09-11-26 leopardo
I did not know Pillz sorry...
In Italy 12.5% on gain of white list bonds |
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09-11-26 pillz
| Leo; it is not for a Belgian, as now Belgium take 30% tax on the gain of a bond ... 10% tax on shares gain ... |
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09-11-26 leopardo
Years to maturity 46(2072-2026)
Modified duration 31.3( 1 percentage point of yield to maturity means 31,3% move in plices) |
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09-11-26 pillz
| Modified duration 31.3 ??? why ??? |
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09-11-26 pillz
| why it trade already 11 years ? |
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09-11-26 leopardo
| Modified duration 31.3 and good convexity |
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09-11-26 leopardo
| Years to maturity 46 Pillz!!! |
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09-11-26 pillz
Face value
100,00
EUR
Bond price
15,00
EUR
Annual coupon rate
0,5
%
Coupon frequency
Years to maturity
57
year(s)
Yield to maturity (YTM)
5,12
% |
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09-11-26 pillz
why would be a modified duration and convexity ????
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09-11-26 leopardo
| But it is not all about the yield to maturity but modified duration and convexity |
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09-11-26 leopardo
| Keep in mind that it is a FRENCH REPUBLIC TREASURY BOND |
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09-11-26 leopardo
At 15 5.97% Pillz
At 10 7.6% |
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09-11-26 pillz
| and at 15 it is ytm of 5.2 %,,,, not interesting .. |
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09-11-26 leopardo
| Frankreich 72 muss noch 30% verlieren. |
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09-11-26 leopardo
| At these plices (21,7) around 4.6% |
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09-11-26 pillz
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09-11-26 leopardo
It’s all about duration and convexity
At 15 it will be worth buying… |
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09-11-26 pillz
| did yu calculate the ytm with 0.50% clit ? |
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09-11-26 leopardo
| Issued at 95.9 now trading at 21.7 |
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09-11-26 leopardo
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09-11-26 leopardo
I prefer this bond
Waiting for plices between 15 and 18 to buy
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/en/products/bonds/stuttgart/a2876z-frankreich-72/ |
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09-11-26 pillz
Every week we present a tracker that deserves special attention. This time, analyst Frank De Mol has opted for a tracker that invests in Brazilian bonds.
Brazilian bonds deserve your attention right now, for several reasons.
Sky-high interest rates
The real interest rate, the nominal interest rate minus inflation, is one of the highest in the world. On ten-year Brazilian government bonds, the interest rate is around 14.5%. This while inflation is only hovering around 4.5%. The high real return is a compensation for inflation, budget, election and currency risk.
On August 5, the Brazilian central bank did cut the policy rate, the Selic rate, by 25 basis points to 14%. However, a rapid further rate cut is not yet in the offing, as inflation remains above the 3% target.
The main explanation for the high real interest rates is the budget deficit, which rose to almost 10% of gross domestic product in June, pushing total government debt to 82% of gross domestic product and threatening to rise further.
Elections in October
In addition, there are elections in October in Brazil. Not only a (new?) president is elected, but also the Chamber of Representatives. The price of the Brazilian real and the evolution of bond yields will depend to a large extent on whether the winner puts credible plans on the table to reduce the budget deficit.
Brazilian bonds are therefore not without risk, but we think that the high interest rate is sufficient compensation for the higher risk. Don't see them as a core position in a tracker portfolio, but rather as a limited addition to a broadly diversified portfolio.
iShares Tracker
Individual Brazilian bonds are becoming increasingly difficult to find. And if there are any, they are bonds with a high gross coupon, which means that the tax advantage of a Brazilian bond largely disappears. That is why it is better to choose a tracker.
The choice of trackers is limited. There is the iShares Brazil LTN BRL Government Bond (ticker: BLTN, DE000A2QP4D2). This tracker tracks the J.P. Morgan Brazilian Zero-Coupon Bond Index, an index of zero bonds (coupon 0%). This tracker is quoted in dollars on Euronext Amsterdam.
There is also a tracker of the same name in euros, which is also listed on Euronext Amsterdam. The ISIN code is the same, but the ticker is different: BLNT. The spread, the difference between the bid and ask price, is slightly higher than the tracker in dollars.
For both, the annual cost is 0.35%. The tracker is not registered in Belgium, so the stock exchange tax is limited to 0.12%. The asset under management is sufficiently high at 1.77 billion dollars.
Of course, you must take into account the Reynders tax of 30%, which is due in the event of a sale on the capital gains of a bond ETF. This is different for individual bonds, but the lack of interesting choices makes a tracker a good option. |
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09-10-26 savo
| Escalating Houthi-Saudi conflict raises the risk of damaging strikes on the critical 5.0 mb/d East-West Pipeline and other Red Sea oil infrastructure to 75%. No attacks have been reported against Yanbu or the East-West Pipeline since July, but escalating hostilities increasingly favor strikes on critical Saudi energy infrastructure. Attacks on Saudi-linked shipping will also continue and are likely to become more frequent. |
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09-10-26 savo
i ve been saying the same thing..as inflation goes up real rates...the ones that matter .... go down... that is why Trump says he likes inflation... and the way the Fed is giving him the cuts he wants without cutting nominal rates.
I wonder when the algos will figure this one out |
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09-10-26 carib
Stanley Druckenmiller, a close ally of Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh, told a private Wall Street audience that US borrowing costs remained a “little low” and central bankers who thought monetary policy was restrictive were “ridiculous”.
The macro hedge fund manager, a longtime mentor of Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Warsh, said in a closed-door meeting on Thursday that rate cuts “are no longer needed”.
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09-10-26 carib
| I self-correct. I was mistaken, proving my stated ignorance. It was South Yemen the one who liked the soviets. |
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09-10-26 carib
Spal: I do not disagree. I would just note that Iran, if not led by a fanatic regime, would have little interest in messing with Yemen, and if the iranians had never provided aid to North Yemen, probably the current circumstances would be very different.
I repeat I am an ignoramus in Yemeni history. But was North Yemen not always in cahoots with the "axis of evil"?
Maybe I am mistaken. I trust the Israelis know way better than myself. |
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09-10-26 spal
| To be clear without Iran, the Houthis would lose their ability to shut down global shipping lanes etc. However, they would remain the dominant political and military force across northern Yemen due to their local organizational capacity, geographic advantage, and tribal control. They are not an Iranian projection rather an alignment. |
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09-10-26 spal
| The Houthis come by anti-Zionism naturally as they do their opposition to Western hegemony. Iran certainly did not teach or order them to hate Israel. Iran recognized an existing alignment and leveraged it. |
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09-10-26 spal
I tend to believe that the Houthis would be irrelevant without iranian or other external support.
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Simple questions - was Ali Abdullah Saleh a puppet?
Yes or no?
Is the official government of Yemen a western creation?
Yes or no? |
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09-10-26 carib
| SPAL. thank for the insight. But, even in the light of what you wrote, the Houthis would have no grudge against Israel, except orders coming from Tehran. I understand they have grudges against the saudis, and accept the point the saudi regime stems from a US creation. |
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09-10-26 carib
Barbarians.. was a term created by the Greeks to describe the persians, who, at the time, already had a large and rather efficient empire. The term referred to the way the persians spoke.
I tend to believe that the Houthis would be irrelevant without iranian or other external support. But I never was in Yemen and remain ignorant on the matter. |
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09-10-26 spal
| Beware tech stocks now ... |
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09-10-26 spal
| BTW how I make money is almost always in contradistinction to what I would like to believe at core politically - I do realize that what are I would like to believe and what actually is are two very different things. To survive this contradiction I have concluded it is easier if you are rich. |
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09-10-26 spal
BTW framing North Yemenis as un-civilized overlooks centuries of architecture, law, and culture.
Ansarallah's ability to hold territory and project naval threats stems from organizational discipline, tactical adaptation, strategic geography, and ruthless internal security—not primitive lawlessness.
Countering their power effectively requires accurate strategic assessment rather than dismissive tropes FWIW. |
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09-10-26 spal
Spal, please explain for dummies, why?:
"If I had to pick ... Saudi or Houthi ... I pick Houthi. Just a personal preference ."
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Amigo - Northern Yemen was ruled for 1000 years by the groups that form the basis of the Houthis. The core of their insurgent movement was a reaction reaction against state-sponsored, Saudi-backed Salafi/Wahhabi proselytization (via the Saleh regime) in their traditional heartland of Saada. They were also economically marginalized by the same people
As you know the Saleh regime is a western (and this includes Saudi/UAE) puppet regime. It is highly corrupt and does little for the people it rules.
The Houthis as far as I can see are a legitimate insurgency.
My opinion of the Saudis on the other hand is low. They are nothing without oil wealth and with it are a savage regime who cut journalists up into small pieces if they are challenged. You can generalize this attitude. They fight wholly through merceneries and the support of hired hands.
At core I always lean towards the underdog. This is definitely the Houthis.
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09-10-26 carib
| CITGO $$$ should be going to.. our pockets. |
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09-10-26 Merlino
s citgo money still going to Guaido's pockets?
.............................
https://noticierodigital.com/2026/09/delcy-rodriguez-avanza-para-recuperar-el-control-de-citgo-segun-reuters/ |
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09-10-26 savo
| is citgo money still going to Guaido's pockets? |
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09-10-26 savo
| nothing seems to be good for veni oil and us...we've been stack at these levels for months |
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09-10-26 carib
| Bajo la supervisión de la oposición venezolana, Citgo ha mantenido su rentabilidad. Durante el segundo trimestre de este año, la refinadora alcanzó una utilidad neta de 936 millones de dólares, frente a los 100 millones de dólares registrados en el mismo periodo de 2025. Este resultado coincide con la reactivación de los envíos de petróleo venezolano a sus instalaciones. |
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09-10-26 carib
| Houthi news good for veny oil, I suppose. |
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09-10-26 savo
crude at 105 and veni down
a riddle wrapped in a mistery... |
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09-10-26 carib
| National Resistance Front forces, a coalition of anti-Houthi forces led by former Houthi ally and senior member of the Yemeni government, Tareq Saleh, have obtained intelligence and maps revealing an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plan for a phased advance and takeover of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Iran International reported, citing a Wednesday Yemeni military media announcement. |
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09-10-26 CAC
Spal, please explain for dummies, why?:
"If I had to pick ... Saudi or Houthi ... I pick Houthi. Just a personal preference ." |
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09-10-26 carib
| I have zero local knowledge, but I do not think the north yemenis are civilised people saddled with an unsavoury regime, but rather closer to "barbarians". hence the issue is not "liberating" them, but rather containing or utterly defeating. Not clear who will take up such task. |
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 spal
TRMD and NAT schtock behavior indicating that both gulf straits are now significantly impaired for at least 18 mths.
Official Schpal stock gleaning. |
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09-10-26 spal
mere paperwork?
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Likely |
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09-10-26 carib
| What about the saudi-egyptian-pakistani mutual defence agreement? mere paperwork? |
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09-10-26 spal
When an irregular force captures territory along a contested coastline (previously held by UAE-backed forces or the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council), the primary threat isn't immediate ground counter-attack—it's local counter-reconnaissance, sabotage, and forward spotters providing targeting data for coalition air power.
Role of Interior Ministry Forces: These are not frontline shock troops; they are specialized paramilitary/internal security units. Deploying 3,000 personnel into the Hays–Mocha rear area allows Ansarallah to establish checkpoints, secure logistics lines, root out local intelligence networks, and harden launching sites for anti-ship missiles and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs).
Creating a Sovereign Buffer: By policing and holding Hays–Mocha, Ansarallah effectively creates a continuous, fortified coastwise strip directly overlooking the narrowest choking points of the Bab al-Mandeb. |
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09-10-26 spal
| If I had to pick ... Saudi or Houthi ... I pick Houthi. Just a personal preference ... please inform the CIA just in case. |
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09-10-26 spal
The world belongs to those who go out into the desert and fight for it and not to those who play with video game controllers.
A Schpalism for the new age. |
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09-10-26 spal
Ansarullah have deployed 3,000 Interior Ministry forces to help stabilize and consolidate control over the newly captured territory in the Hays - Mocha area, southwest Yemen. x.com/officialrninte…
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Houthi Toothi Do ... my new tanker war cry. |
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09-10-26 spal
| Adding to tanker positions |
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 carib
Saudi Arabia told Opec it produced 6.2mn barrels a day in August, the lowest monthly figure in 2026 and 23 per cent lower than in July, according to a report published by the oil cartel on Thursday.
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09-10-26 spal
| Same on NAT - paid 27 cents and market shrugged and continued to buy |
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09-10-26 spal
| Paid $2.40 today and shares did not fully discount this. |
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 spal
| The development forces the US, Coalition, and regional powers into an immediate, high-stakes military escalation to push Houthi forces off the island before they can establish an integrated defensive perimeter. |
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09-10-26 spal
| Control of Mayun converts what was previously an asymmetric stand-off threat (missiles, anti-ship drones, and uncrewed surface vessels launched from the mainland) into direct physical domain denial over the strait. |
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09-10-26 spal
BREAKING!!! Ansarallah forces have reportedly LANDED ON MAYUN ISLAND — directly inside the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Clashes are reportedly underway as Yemeni forces attempt to seize the extraordinarily strategic island, also known as Perim, which sits at the narrowest section of the strait between Yemen and Djibouti.
Mayun hosts an airbase linked to the UAE, with a runway capable of handling military aircraft and claims of an Israeli presence on the island have circulated for years.
Control of Dhubab and Perim Island is key to gaining control of Bab al-Mandab.
If confirmed, this is a huge development.
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Agree |
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09-10-26 spal
- Houthis are about to capture BAM strait area and kicking the behind of Saudis
Houthis - brilliant move for them.
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09-10-26 leopardo
| You buy K92 much better no premium no margins and leveraged investment on Gold |
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