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06-13-26 savo
Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them:
1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard."
2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything."
3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade.
4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete."
5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us."
6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse."
Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2065891425536090186 |
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06-13-26 savo
Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them:
1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard."
2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything."
3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade.
4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete."
5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us."
6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse."
Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.
https://x.com/academic_la/status/2065891425536090186 |
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06-13-26 victor
IRGC news channel 🏴
Trump's strange insistence on signing an understanding with Iran on Sunday and a test for the negotiating team
A few hours ago, US President Donald Trump once again emphasized that «memorandums of understanding will be signed with Iran on Sunday. This is despite the fact that the Iranian negotiating officials had clearly stated that the understanding has not yet been finalized and will definitely not be done on Sunday.
It is worth pondering that Sunday coincides with June 14th, Trump's birthday. Some observers believe that with this insistence, he seeks to make symbolic use of this occasion and turn it into a promotional event for himself. But according to the clear positions of the Iranian authorities that the agreement is not final, it seems that the negotiating authorities of our country are aware of these hidden layers and will not allow such a media and ceremonial maneuver.
From this point of view, the fate of Sunday's signing will not only be a technical test for the content of the understanding, but also a test for the honesty and standing of Iranian officials against dramatic pressures. |
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06-13-26 carib
| The only good thing about this tentative deal, if confirmed, is that Bibi will go into the coming elections as a damaged leader. |
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06-13-26 carib
| I have not yet seen the actual text of the supposed agreement.. but if the content is the one below.. it's a bad deal, IMHO. |
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06-13-26 panasonic
Savo, subject to "if confirmed" of course.
Accord includes IAEA back to inspections, to break the deadlock. |
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06-13-26 savo
pana... sorry but no achievement... no regime change... iran keeps the uranium... Hormuz is open but service fees to be paid to cross it... sanctions relief... release of fund in UAE...etc...
In any case it is ok...let things go back to normal... and hope the next president is of right mind.
Trump says the uranium can be downblended inside Iran
In other words, the stockpile won’t be transferred abroad; Iran will continue to have control of its enriched uranium and will only dilute it in accordance with gradual full economic sanctions relief.
No sanctions relief, no dilution. Very important, Iran keeps its main leverage.
Within 30 days of signing the MoU, the U.S. naval blockade will be lifted and the Strait of Hormuz will be opened (under Iranian management).
Immediately upon signing, a ceasefire is announced in the region, including Lebanon, half of Iran’s frozen assets (held in Qatar) will be released, and the U.S. will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemicals.
After these 30 days, if all conditions have been met, talks will begin for a duration of 60 days to reach a final agreement, including on nuclear matters, sanctions relief, and American withdrawal from the region.
@Middle_East_Spectator
https://t.me/s/Middle_East_Spectator?before=33483
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06-13-26 savo
German tour guide is using a German flag in Germany to guide his group.
5 police officers stop him. The flag is offensive to those who are not identifying with Germany.
https://x.com/AlternatNews/status/2065725682861088950 |
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06-13-26 panasonic
Carib, if confirmed this is a major achievement by DT, unrecognized by Dems, of course...not even thank you from EU.
Gulf States probably will say tks. |
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06-13-26 carib
Iran has escalated efforts to seal off its stockpile of enriched uranium, collapsing tunnels, and placing explosive mines at entrances in recent weeks, CNN reported on Saturday, citing five sources familiar with US intelligence.
This comes a day after a senior administration official told reporters that the US and Iran are close to a deal requiring Iran to relinquish its uranium, which has been enriched to near-bomb grade, to the US.
Reuters also reported on Friday that the emerging US-Iran deal will include the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program and allow the US to collect the regime's enriched uranium. |
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06-13-26 savo
| this week there is FOMC... what will Warsh do? fight inflation or help Bessent? |
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06-13-26 carib
ft
US investment groups are racing to capitalise on Donald Trump’s ousting of communist leader Nicolás Maduro in January, setting up funds and targeting underutilised oilfields in the Latin American nation.     Â
Lionheart Capital, a Miami-based investment fund founded by Ophir Sternberg, is among the early movers. It has signed a letter of intent aimed at merging its publicly listed affiliate Lionheart Holdings with Keo Energy, a group with oil assets in the Maracaibo Basin in northwestern Venezuela.
A source with knowledge of the proposed transaction said the merger would create the first Nasdaq-listed company that would provide US and institutional investors direct access to high-quality Venezuelan oil assets. Lionheart plans to list the oil company at about a $1bn valuation through a merger with its Lionheart Holdings blank-cheque vehicle, which raised $230mn in a 2024 public offering.
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06-13-26 spal
I asked Grok to comment on what I wrote below for those interested:
Your summary is spot-on and captures the core appeal. LEO (Low Earth Orbit) at roughly 340–550 km (~210–340 miles) is where the real action is for commercial broadband constellations like Starlink. Geostationary orbit (GEO) at ~35,786 km is far more expensive and limited.
Here’s a refined, technically grounded breakdown with simple explanations.
Orbital Basics: Why LEO Wins for These SystemsLEO altitude: Typically 160–2,000 km. Starlink’s main operational shell is ~550 km (342 miles), with some satellites now being lowered to ~480 km. Orbital period: ~90–95 minutes. Speed: ~7.6–7.8 km/s (about 17,000 mph). GEO altitude: Exactly 35,786 km. Period matches Earth’s rotation (24 hours), so satellites appear fixed in the sky over one equatorial spot.
Key physics advantage of LEO: Much less energy (delta-v) is required to reach it. Reusable rockets like Falcon 9 excel here because they can launch frequently and cheaply with many small payloads. Reaching GEO demands far more propellant and powerful upper stages.Latency (signal delay): Light-speed round-trip in LEO is ~25–40 ms (comparable to good terrestrial broadband).
In GEO it’s 500–700+ ms because the signal travels ~70 times farther. This makes LEO vastly better for interactive uses (video calls, gaming, real-time control).Signal strength & ground equipment: Closer distance means less path loss, so user terminals can be small and cheap (Starlink’s flat “pizza-box” phased-array dish). GEO needs large, expensive tracking dishes.Satellite Design: Small, Lightweight, Mass-ProducedTraditional GEO communications satellites are huge (often several tons), complex, and cost tens to hundreds of millions each. They carry heavy payloads and need powerful transmitters.Starlink satellites are much simpler and lighter:Early versions: ~227–300 kg.
Current v2 Mini: ~525–800 kg (still “small” by satellite standards).
Design: Flat-panel body with large deployable solar arrays (wingspan up to ~30 m when open), phased-array antennas for electronic beam steering, and ion thrusters (Hall-effect, using krypton or argon) for orbit adjustments and deorbiting.
They’re essentially a comms payload + solar power + propulsion on a lightweight bus — your “fancy mobile phone + solar panels” analogy is excellent. No heavy scientific instruments or massive structures needed.
This small size enables:Mass production (SpaceX has built them at high rates).
Stacking dozens per Falcon 9 launch. Lower cost per satellite and easier replacement (lifespan ~5–7 years).
How the Constellation WorksA single LEO satellite sees only a small portion of Earth at once and moves quickly out of view (visible to a user for just minutes). Continuous coverage requires a dense constellation with coordinated handovers.Architecture:Multiple orbital planes and “shells” (slightly different altitudes and inclinations, e.g., 53° for broad coverage, higher inclinations or polar for poles).
User link: Phased-array antennas on both satellite and user terminal electronically steer narrow beams (no mechanical moving parts needed for most tracking).
Inter-satellite links: Laser optical connections between satellites create a high-speed mesh network in space.
Gateways: Satellites connect to ground stations linked to the terrestrial internet backbone.
Data is routed dynamically: user → nearby satellite → (via lasers) other satellites → gateway → internet (and back).
As one satellite moves away, another seamlessly takes over. The density (~thousands of satellites) ensures multiple options overhead at most times.
Result: Global coverage with high capacity through frequency reuse and many simultaneous narrow beams.Why LEO Can Be “Saturated” or Monopolized (Unlike Simple GEO Slots)GEO has limited fixed orbital slots along the equator (ITU-coordinated to avoid interference). LEO doesn’t have rigid “parking spots,” but it has practical limits:Preferred shells: Popular altitudes (~500–600 km) and inclinations fill up first.
RF interference: Satellites’ radio signals (Ku/Ka bands mainly) can interfere if orbits and frequencies overlap too much. Requires careful coordination and beam management.
Physical crowding & debris: Collision risk rises with density. Starlink uses autonomous avoidance (hundreds of maneuvers budgeted per satellite). Lower orbits self-clean faster via atmospheric drag. This is why some Starlink satellites are being lowered in 2026.
Regulatory limits: ITU and national bodies (e.g., FCC) allocate spectrum and approve orbital parameters. Early filers/deployers get priority for interference protection (“first-come, first-served” with protections). Operators must file debris mitigation plans.
Current numbers (mid-2026): Starlink has roughly 10,400 satellites in orbit, with nearly all operational.
space.com +1
This dwarfs competitors. Planet Labs (Earth imaging) has ~200 active satellites. Other broadband efforts (OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper) are much smaller.Starlink’s scale gives it a strong position: secured spectrum rights, proven network, massive user terminal deployment, and vertical integration (own launches + satellites + service).
New entrants face higher barriers due to crowding, regulatory hurdles, and the need for enormous capital to match the density.The Bigger “Prize” for SpaceX and Commercial SpaceLEO mega-constellations deliver ubiquitous high-speed internet (especially valuable in remote, maritime, aviation, or underserved areas) with performance close to terrestrial broadband. SpaceX’s reusable rockets make building and refreshing such a constellation economically viable. The same infrastructure supports future services (direct-to-cell to phones, higher-capacity versions on Starship, etc.).In short: LEO rewards scale, speed of deployment, and low launch costs in ways GEO never could. Your intuition about the ~10,000-satellite threshold, interference limits, and the network effect in LEO is exactly right — that’s the strategic high ground in today’s commercial space race. |
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06-13-26 spal
| Carib is correct it is apparently the positions in LEO (Low Earth Ordit - 400 miles) that are significant and able to be "monopolized". Putting them higher in "geostationary orbit" is apparently harder and more expensive. When you put them in LEO you can do so with a very simple structure - no more than essentially a fancy mobile phone and some solar panels. Small, light weight - thus the payload is limited and light (very important). These are issued in constellations and do the same thing as the much larger "state sponsored" geostationary satellites but since they orbit they pass off the task in a network of satellites as each one orbits. My understanding is that among starlink, plant labs and a couple of others they already have saturated LEO. (There is a limit to how close you can put them as their signals start to interfere one with the other) --- there is something like 10,000 in orbit right now. Monopolizing the "net" in LEO is part of the prize here. |
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06-13-26 carib
El máximo lĂder de la organizaciĂłn criminal Tren de Aragua, HĂ©ctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores (alias "Niño Guerrero"), fue abatido durante una operaciĂłn de seguridad en el estado BolĂvar (sureste), resultado de una operaciĂłn militar conjunta con autoridades de Estados Unidos, informĂł este viernes el Gobierno de Venezuela.
A través de un comunicado oficial del Ministerio de Comunicación e Información, señaló que "durante el despliegue se registraron enfrentamientos armados en los cuales resultó abatido" alias "Niño Guerrero". |
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06-13-26 carib
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06-13-26 savo
| carib... in what? the rockets? |
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06-13-26 carib
It is possible SpaceX turns into a 5Tr monopolist.
It is also possible that, like Tesla, it eventually finds better competitors.
Either way, not a "colores" play, I guess. |
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06-13-26 savo
| Adam Khoo warned investors to avoid chasing the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO on its listing day. He highlighted that the company's staggering $2 trillion valuation (roughly 109x sales and 218x Price/EBITDA) is "extreme" and priced for perfection. |
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06-13-26 savo
Adam Khoo
@adamkhootrader
As everyone watches the SpaceX IPO today, its worth remembering this advice from Buffett
"The idea that a newly issued security (IPO)—brought to market at a time of the seller's choosing and surrounded by massive hype—is the single best bargain among thousands of global businesses is absolute nonsense.
When an offering carries a ridiculous 7% commission just to incentivize salespeople, it simply cannot be the most attractive investment available.
While people easily get caught up in the excitement of a new launch, look at the reality: you have thousands of existing public companies whose prices are set by a natural auction market, free from aggressive promotion or hidden fees.
It makes no sense to buy a security precisely when an insider decides the timing is perfect to sell. Frankly, it isn't worth spending five seconds thinking about IPOs."
- Warren Buffett |
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06-13-26 savo
| the usual US strategy to create chaos in muslim countries by decapitating the leadership... (Libya, Irak, Iran...) and promote Netandracula's agenda |
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06-13-26 spal
line of command dispersed.
===
Likely ... the country is factional, tending towards tribal in reality. |
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