09-17-26 spal
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09-17-26 spal
| I need the money ... I heard there is inflation out there ... and Satanists!! |
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09-17-26 spal
| Heading for the porno zone |
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09-17-26 spal
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09-17-26 spal
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09-17-26 spal
| Chokepoints - the new thing. |
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09-17-26 spal
Tankers
I am sailing, I am sailing
Home again 'cross the sea
I am sailing stormy waters
To be near you, to be free ... |
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09-17-26 spal
| Panas - yes - better yet. |
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09-17-26 panasonic
Spal, my quant equation is far more simplistic:
"diesel prices up, rates up"
:))
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09-17-26 spal
You can say what you want about Iran but they're definitely pretty unique in their communication: never seen a country threaten another with a math equation before đ
For those who didn't get it: there is a famous monetary policy formula used by the Fed called the "Taylor rule" that says a central bank's policy rate (i) should equal the neutral real rate (r*) plus target inflation (Ď*), plus 1.5 times the inflation gap and 0.5 times the output gap (the "i = r* + Ď* + 1.5(ĎâĎ*) + 0.5(yây*)" part of Ghalibaf's formula).
Ghalibaf adds Îą(SOHâSOH*) and β(BEMâBEM*): SOH referring to the Strait Of Hormuz and BEM to Bab El-Mandeb. Both have positive coefficient, meaning the more those chokepoints are choked, the higher the rate the Fed would have to set to fight the resulting inflation.
In a nutshell this is Ghalibaf trolling the Fed, telling them that Iran is - in a very real way - setting American monetary policy.
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This is my quant. |
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09-17-26 spal
ULTRA MAGA Trumper
===
Completely mentally retarded. |
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09-16-26 savo
Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment!
no ti isn't... your savings rate is at a historic low... and so is your investment in the country...
you consume what you do not produce...
borrow what you did not save...
spend what you did not earn...
f*ck you... |
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09-16-26 savo
If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with
shelves in your supermarkets will be empty...
your cars will run out of autoparts..
and your industry will come to a halt...
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09-16-26 savo
because we are the Best Credit in the World
no they aren't.
Quite the opposite...
That is why markets will continue asking for higher yields to compensate the losing purchasing power of the dollar
The fed can buy bonds.. and the treasury can twist them... but that is simply lower rates now... but more future inflation... |
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09-16-26 victor
:-)))
Hobo Spices
The only person in the world who selected Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman is Trump. I have no idea how he decides on people like Warsh and Amy Coney Barrett but his process for hiring people is completely broken.
https://x.com/SpicesHobo/status/2100335429438341367 |
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09-16-26 victor
some maga guys quite upset, saying that Warsh is the next Amy.. :-)))
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ULTRA MAGA Trumper đââď¸
@SecScottBessent fired Warsh before he raises again! He is destroying @realDonaldTrump agenda - get rid of him. NOW
@DanScavino @StephenM @SusieWiles47
- he is going to be the next Amy Coney Barrett traitor.
https://x.com/UltraMAGA67/status/2100354531313807623
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09-16-26 victor
savo, dt a year ago.. insulting Powell, because he wouldn't lower rates.
however, warsh just RAISED rates.
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Trump insults Jerome Powell, says he's "not a smart person" ahead of interest rate decision
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TXqOL2maN0
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09-16-26 victor
savo, let's see how long it takes for dt to start insulting Warsh.
"too late" Warsh.. |
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09-16-26 victor
savo :-)))
Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World â BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment! If we stopped Trading with every country that we have a Deficit with, which is most of them, we would make, at least, 1.5 Trillion Dollars a year. The word âDeficitâ is nothing more than a fancy word for LOSS. We are âcarryingâ almost every country in the World, and that cannot go on any longer. LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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09-16-26 victor
| savo, the dow dropping 3000 instead of 600? :-) |
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09-16-26 victor
savo, Why can't rates go up 1 point... or 2.. or 3 or 10 points in one shot?
you mean 100-1000 bps at once? :-)
that would be fun! a serious market shock! :-) |
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09-16-26 savo
victor... how a quarter point means anything in today's environment?
Incidentally... who invented this stupidity about the quarter point?
Why can't rates go up 1 point... or 2.. or 3 or 10 points in one shot? |
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09-16-26 victor
CNN
Federal Reserve raises interest rates for the first time in three years, a move by Chairman Kevin Warsh that could put him at odds with Trump.
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you think??
and dt just chose him!! :-))
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09-16-26 victor
fed.. rate up a quarter point.. UNANIMOUS vote.
dt is going to be extremely happy.. :-)
after blaming Powell for everything wrong. |
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09-16-26 carib
ft
One of Donald Trumpâs closest backers from the fossil fuels industry said he plans to invest in Venezuela as the US increases its control over the countryâs natural resources.
US oil magnate Harold Hamm on Wednesday said his company Continental Resources had signed a memorandum of understanding to develop an oilfield in Venezuelaâs prolific Orinoco oil belt in partnership with state-owned PetrĂłleos de Venezuela (PDVSA).
âI think this can also be the energy renaissance that is necessary in Venezuela,â Hamm said at the G20 energy ministers summit in Houston.
âWe see this becoming the key to really turning it around and perhaps, not only get [back to] where production peaked before, but actually extend that further.â
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09-16-26 spal
| Fearnleys - shipping specialists |
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09-16-26 spal
Chris Shipping đ˘đ˘
@christankerfund
¡
2m
Fearnleys today on Suezmax:
Rates, whilst astronomical, did not price in the huge demand upside this market had & still has amidst a dearth of VLCCs. VLCC availability for Brazil up to end October could be as low as 4-5 ships including projections and with USG/West Africa markets drawing down on the same pool that leaves colossal volumes for Suezmaxes
$TNK
$NAT
$ECO
$FRO
$TEN |
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09-16-26 spal
FRO
FRONTLINE PLC
53.89 (+4.46%)
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09-16-26 spal
| https://x.com/christankerfund/status/2100222475594498318?s=20 |
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09-16-26 spal
| If you have tankers you don't give two shits about the Warsh'es of this world. |
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09-16-26 spal
TRMD
TORM PLC A
36.42 (+4.27%)
Hafnia took down 4.5 million of the 9 million secondary yesterday.
Likely makes a full offer at some point. Very fluid, bullish.
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09-16-26 spal
BHRpD
BRAEMAR HOTELS & RES 8.25% PFD Callable
Adding c. $17 - $17.15 |
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09-16-26 spal
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09-16-26 spal
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09-16-26 spal
| Apparently Japan is the very inexpensive these day - one of my sons is sending updates from Osaka at the moment. Cheap to eat out. My sister and entire family flys from Australia to Japan for ski vacations - a lot less expensive than going to local ski fields in her own country - all in including accomodation. |
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09-16-26 panasonic
Carib, very similar to Malaga my guess.
I can have nice lunch with 12~15âŹ, the equivalent in Miami 35~40$ |
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09-16-26 carib
| Panas: prices are no longer as cheap as they were, but still cheap compared to Miami.Minimum salary still about 1.000 $ a month.Average salary about 1.600 $. |
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09-16-26 spal
Today is cheaper to put 160 barrels in a 40ft container and ship it to China than to hire a VLCC in a $ per barrel basis.
Whoops |
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09-16-26 spal
Surah Al-Fil (Quran 105) recounts the âPeople of the Elephantâ: around 570 CE, Abraha, an Aksumite ruler based in Yemen, marched on Mecca with an army that included war elephants, intending to destroy the Kaaba.
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09-16-26 spal
VisegrĂĄd 24
@visegrad24
Saudi Arabia just shot down a Houthi drone as it was about to enter the Mecca region.
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09-16-26 spal
Anthropic reveals the Houthis used Claude to vibecode guided-missile software.
Cool |
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09-16-26 spal
JUST IN: Co-inventor of ChatGPT launches new AI startup which claims to be up to 200x faster, plans to forever charge $0 for output tokens.
Whoops. LMAO
Buy tankers
;)) |
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09-16-26 spal
After Iran, Yemenâs Houthis have reportedly laid naval mines across the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a Yemeni military source told German news agency DPA â putting a major oil artery carrying roughly 5.4 million barrels of crude and condensate a day at risk.
The Houthis already control key positions around Bab al-Mandab, including Perim Island at its center. Mines could now turn the water itself into a threat for tankers and warships.
Hormuz is also still mined by Iran, putting two critical energy chokepoints under simultaneous maritime threat.
The worldâs oil arteries are being turned into minefields. |
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09-16-26 spal
| https://x.com/Toronto242M/status/2100012164186595357?s=20 |
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09-16-26 spal
The world isn't short oil. It's short the ability to move and process it.
More drilling adds supply. It doesn't add tankers, refinery capacity or pipelines.
You don't solve a logistics probleme by producing more of what you can't move.
The market knows this: September 2027 WTI is only $74. |
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