08-12-26 savo
carib... you were the one saying: free return in security of political exiles
that is a very strong political statement
to which i responded that those political exiles costed the country 1 trn dollars at least...
you of course are entitled to disagree... but if you start a conversation with such a controversial statement accept that other people may think differently... it is part of the conversation. |
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08-12-26 spal
had a good opinion of Jeffrey Sachs in the 90s.. but later on I had the impression he went nuts.
I never met him personally.. so it's just an impression from far away.
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Carib - I had the exact same impression - his early career (advising places like Bolivia) was very impressive. But later on as I caught snippets of his interviews etc he seem more and more strident, frustrated and angry in a kind of sanctimonious way. Like you Carib, just an impression. |
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08-12-26 carib
| PS: on the issue some individuals became insanely wealthy in the USA in the current century.. that is just a fact. I tend to think they have way too much power now. |
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08-12-26 carib
I had a good opinion of Jeffrey Sachs in the 90s.. but later on I had the impression he went nuts.
I never met him personally.. so it's just an impression from far away.
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08-12-26 carib
Savo: again... no agreement, even on facts.
The crash of PDVsa was due to chavista political meddling and graft on massive scale, not to the decisions of AN 2015.
The US sanctions certainly made life difficult for Venezuela, but they were the consequence of standing with the wrong allies in a certain part of the world.
They would not have been introduced if Veny had remained very neutral.. and run like Norway.
;-)
The key point, however, is that none of that, or the opposite theory you propose are now relevant for us.
What is relevant is how to make Veny wealthy again and attractive for the diaspora with brains and dollars to get back home and rebuild their country.. so we can get PAID.
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08-12-26 savo
carib.. spal... would like to hear your opinions...
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/QGYmQgB_meY |
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08-12-26 savo
on top what Guaido and Co stole from Citgo, etc... they also costed 2 mm barrel exports per annum, and 10 years of underinvestment in various other exporting sectors...
I would say that is a least a trillion... i doubt Maduro and Co has that money in their offshore accounts
They can return to veni if they like... to be hang from a lamp post. |
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08-12-26 carib
In essence.. Chavismo transformed a rich country into a poor one, with a cumulated "cost" well in excess of one trillion dollars, over time.
If Vecchio, Guaido' &c over time squandered some millions from Monomeros, Citgo, US funds or what else.. the latter figures pale when compared to the former.
As creditors, we care directly about neither, but just care about the debtor becoming rich again, in order to pay what it owes.
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08-12-26 carib
Venezuela’s Kafkaesque restructuring just got messier, as a new ruling throws FX-control damages into the mix.
The universe of Venezuelan external debt claims is well-populated, including arbitration claims filed by foreign investors concerning Bolivarian-era economic policies. Many were triggered by the expropriation of assets, while others arose from arbitrary regulations and, in some cases, breaches of contract.
As a result, Venezuela is already among the countries with the highest number of cases as a respondent state before ICSID, the World Bank’s arbitration center, with 57 cases. Of these, 50 have been decided and seven are still pending. In 21 cases, arbitration tribunals have rendered awards against the Republic, 19 of them based on policies implemented before 2002. |
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08-12-26 carib
| Savo: let us just conclude, as usual.. that we disagree even on numbers. |
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08-12-26 savo
the whole chavista "cupola" would have to answer for pilfering tens of billions of public funds.
i do not know the exact numbers but Guaido & Co costed veni 10 years of investment and 2 mm barrels of exports per annum... i guess that is more than the foreign bank accounts of Maduro & Co. |
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08-12-26 leopardo
The outcome must and will be friendly, orherwise
It will be blocked. |
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08-12-26 carib
| SPAL: for me interest and capital gains are tax free, but not US dividends.. |
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08-12-26 spal
Carib - yes. Individual circumstances differ.
Obviously I trade them tax free.
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08-12-26 carib
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08-12-26 carib
SPAL: thanks.
I do not like US high dividend stocks.. because of 30% WHT. |
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08-12-26 leopardo
Prices will grow as soon as real negotiations take place
IMHO |
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08-12-26 carib
Leo: would prefer friendly to.. nothing.
Prices, however, still imply a 25% (of claim) recovery. |
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08-12-26 spal
UMH
UMH PPTYS INC REIT
Spec position on - Erez (activist) will try to put this into play. They have done it before. Mobile homes - 95% occupancy and rents tightening. Controlled by the Landy family. Asset value c.23. |
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08-12-26 spal
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08-12-26 spal
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08-12-26 spal
| Small AU miners and streamers on the move |
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08-12-26 leopardo
Yes Carib but it will be market friendly.
Bondholders committee has ammassed 50% of all Pdvsa/vnz holding, can block unfriendly restrucyurin.
Sooo it will be: friendly or nothing. |
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08-12-26 carib
| Merlino: true. In any case the restructuring will be a US decision. |
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08-12-26 Merlino
...if the Rodrigato will move forward under US guidance with a debt restructuring before the political transition. Big IF.
............................
My guess is USA has enough decisional power to impose her will either to the Rodrigato or to the opposition, including mcm ...thus either now or in the future restructuring will basically be a USA decision ... then my second guess is USA credit holders do not want to unnecessarily delay this matter |
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08-12-26 carib
| I guess the actual Veny question is if the Rodrigato will move forward under US guidance with a debt restructuring before the political transition. Big IF. |
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08-12-26 carib
Savo: and the whole chavista "cupola" would have to answer for pilfering tens of billions of public funds..
AN 2015 in comparison is peanuts.. |
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08-12-26 savo
El presidente ruso, Vladímir Putin, ha advertido este miércoles en su visita a un portamisiles de la Flota del Pacífico de la Armada Rusa, que su país responderá "simétricamente" a la confiscación de buques de su flota fantasma por parte de la Unión Europea y Occidente, allí donde considere necesario hacerlo. Así, Putin pone el foco en las medidas tomadas recientemente por la UE.
"Estaremos obligados a responder simétricamente". Y no solo en los mismos mares en los que planifican sus ataques, sino donde nosotros lo consideremos necesario y oportuno, en cualquier lado, incluyendo la zona de responsabilidad de la Flota del Pacífico", alertó Putin. Según el presidente ruso, hay gobiernos que vulneran el derecho marítimo internacional y "buscan limitar el movimiento de los buques de nuestros operadores económicos", buques que, señala, son civiles.
Asimismo aseveró que "recientemente se les ocurrió la idea de requisar nuestros buques y vender los bienes robados, lo cual no es más que piratería y saqueo". En respuesta a estas declaraciones, el comandante de la Flota del Pacífico, almirante Víktor Líina, afirmó que Rusia "cuenta con fuerzas para detener buques de los países inamistosos (...) Estamos listos para comenzar el cumplimiento de dichas misiones".
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08-12-26 savo
free return in security of political exiles
mmmmmmmm
vecchio, borges, guaido, and the rest of that group should account first for all the money stolen from citgo and USaid. |
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08-12-26 savo
one will need a new impartial electoral council, liberation of remaining political prisoner,
all of that |
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08-12-26 leopardo
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08-12-26 leopardo
| September-December crucial months for Vnz dentro restructuring |
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08-12-26 carib
Personally, I do not think an IMF package is required.
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08-12-26 carib
well before elections.. one will need a new impartial electoral council, liberation of remaining political prisoner, free return in security of political exiles, IMHO.
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08-12-26 savo
IMHO the order of things is the following
1) Blanc page at veni's ofac (as long as there are sanctions plus licenses which can be revoked there will not be new investments)
2) debt restructuring of bonded debt
3) oil contracts with big oils
4) increase production
5) elections |
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08-12-26 carib
| all opinions, in the absence of news.. |
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08-12-26 savo
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08-12-26 carib
The announcement of the debt restructuring was more of a gimmick to gain time—one of chavismo’s true gifts—by the Rodrigato to appease both the US and the naive bondholders who helped to put her in power. But, once again, there are no shortcuts to any meaningful change in the country’s economy that do not involve the now dreaded T-word: “transition.”
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2026/08/11/the-odyssey-of-renegotiating-venezuelas-external-debt/ |
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