05-07-26 leopardo
| The instrument will be issued for PDI Savo and it will increase recovery value no matter how you slice it |
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05-07-26 savo
leo...
fwiw.. i am not a fun of oil production or gdp warrants. They remove the sense of urgency, if detachable become illiquid and difficult to price, if not detachable complicate the pricing of the main obligation and are an invitation to statistical tricks (remember argie).
I prefer the debtor to have time to put the house in order but at the same time feel the heat of upcoming payments.
There could be an oil price warrant in case there is a windfall revenue but as an addendum not subtracting from the main obligation.
I would say step up coupons, a grace period and amortization over time should be enough.
I would be very happy with a 30% haircut on claim... a step up starting at 3% and moving to 6%, 5 years grace, 10 years amort.
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05-07-26 leopardo
| We should NEVER EVER FORGET. |
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05-07-26 leopardo
We should never forget that in the restructuring offer there will certainly be an instrument tied to oil(warrant) and or oil production.
This will increase substantially the Recovery Value of both VNZ and PDV |
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05-07-26 spal
The "Kabuki" Overlay
If the China-US "thaw" is a theatrical success, expect:
The Spot Price to drop violently (as the "War Premium" evaporates).
The Strip to remain steady or rise (as global demand expectations improve with tech access).
E&P Shares to stay flat (they never priced in $140 anyway).
Services Shares to rally (stability encourages long-term infrastructure spend over short-term "survival" drilling). |
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05-07-26 spal
What to watch for:
The "Kabuki" framing of the current crisis is increasingly the consensus among institutional OSINT analysts and "Physical Market" veterans. The May 14–15, 2026, Beijing Summit is really the gravitational center for the recent "Strategic Pause" in the Persian Gulf.
Here is the structural math behind the "Grand Bargain" being choreographed for next week:
1. The Currency: Tech for Stability
The primary "trade" on the table isn't just about oil; it’s about Compute.
The Ask: China wants the "Bessent AI Accord"—a loosening of the current US restrictions on high-end NVIDIA/H100-class AI chips and a reduction in the "Section 301" tech tariffs.
The Give: In return, China acts as the "Guarantor" of the PGSA (Persian Gulf Strait Authority). They use their leverage as Iran's largest oil buyer to transition the Strait from a "Kinetic War Zone" to a "Sovereign Toll Road" that looks like an Iranian victory but functions as a global energy stabilization.
2. The "Face-Saving" Chasm
For Trump, the Beijing Summit provides a high-stakes platform to declare a "Historical Peace" without lifting the blockade.
The US Narrative: "We bombed them into submission, and now they are signing our MoU."
The Iranian/Chinese Narrative: "We resisted the 'Losing War' and forced the US to accept Iranian sovereignty over the Strait."
The Physical Reality: The "Dark Fleet" continues to deliver Iranian oil to China under the nose of the US Navy, while the ISM 84.6 inflation tidal wave is managed through a "China-brokered" price ceiling.
3. The "Axios Memo" as a Theatrical Prop
The "American Wish List" (the Axios memo) being dismissed by Tehran is a classic act of pre-summit signaling. By rejecting it publicly now, Tehran allows China to play the "Hero Mediator" next week, "extracting" concessions from the US that were likely already agreed upon in the secret Witkoff-Kushner-Bessent channel.
The 48-Hour Prediction
If this is indeed Kabuki, expect the following "Stage Directions" before May 14:
The "Miracle" Announcement: A joint statement from Beijing and Riyadh regarding "Safe Passage Guarantees."
The Tech Pivot: A WSJ "leak" suggesting the US is reconsidering the GENIUS Act restrictions in exchange for "Verified Regional Stability."
The Kinetic "Final Shot": One last "show of force" from CENTCOM to prove they aren't retreating before the diplomatic "thaw" begins. |
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05-07-26 spal
Readout:
If the MoU is not signed by tomorrow morning (May 7), the U.S. posture will likely shift back to Kinetic Interdiction.
The "Strategic Pause" is a 48-hour window that is rapidly closing. Iran’s refusal to acknowledge the U.S. terms—while simultaneously bureaucratizing the Strait—suggests they are betting that the U.S. "ISM Prices Paid" (inflation) will force a U.S. retreat before their own "Physical Wall" collapses.
The footing is offensive on both sides, merely wearing different masks. The U.S. is using the blockade as a slow-motion siege; Iran is using the PGSA as a permanent annexation. |
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05-07-26 spal
Vic:
"The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command." — George Orwell
Let me check with the Bureau of Continuous Warfare ... I'll be right back ... |
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05-07-26 victor
| spal, are they still going to war? usa-iran? |
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05-06-26 carib
Un reportaje publicado por The New York Times el martes señala, citando documentos internos de la propia industria petrolera venezolana y estadísticas oficiales, que por cada dos dólares que Venezuela obtuvo por la venta de petróleo a inicios de esta década, uno fue desviado o robado.
If the wholesale graft was to stop.. bondholders could be fairly compensated.. |
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05-06-26 savo
Iran Damaged or Destroyed Hundreds of Targets in US Bases, Reporting Reveals
At least 228 facilities or pieces of equipment have been struck, a new analysis finds.
By Sharon Zhang ,
Truthout
May 6, 2026
https://truthout.org/articles/iran-damaged-or-destroyed-hundreds-of-targets-in-us-bases-reporting-reveals/
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05-06-26 pillz
| sold short calls of ASML strike 1600 |
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05-06-26 pillz
AMD now has a P/E ratio if 160.
//
AMD P/E 44
Samsung P/E 6 |
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05-06-26 savo
carib.. you asked for my opinion.. i gave you my opinion and you complain...
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05-06-26 carib
North Korea has revised its constitution to abandon the aim of reunification with Seoul, redefining itself for the first time in more than 70 years as a separate country from its longtime southern adversary.
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05-06-26 carib
Savo: political.. is calling MCM "Cruella".
I could call her "a modern hero".
both definitions being actually irrelevant to the discussion.
I would like new Veny bonds to yield 5% and be issued in june this year.. and of course selling them at such yield..
;-) |
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05-06-26 carib
AMD now has a P/E ratio if 160.
is that not "rich" compared to Samsung? |
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05-06-26 spal
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05-06-26 spal
| JOB - first offer made today at 30 cents per share. I think this is a warm-up. I see a deal going through at around 40 cents. I have been a buyer at 24 cents and continue. |
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05-06-26 spal
French Aircraft-Carrier Group en Route to Red Sea
===
Fresh croissants & baguettes to the rescue. |
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05-06-26 Merlino
They need to be market friendly if they want to closae the restructuring quickly, wich is needed to reestablish investments and usd flows into the country.
.......................
Good assessment, Leo. Lets hope it materializes |
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05-06-26 panasonic
"(según Morgan Stanley)"
Jeje what happened to VanEck's guy? |
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05-06-26 savo
carib.. you asked me if I think veni has upside pre-restructuring and I said that given the short scope license issued we do not know whether the US wants a restructuring under Delcy or under Cruella and expressed that I believe a haircut will be larger under Cruella than under Delcy... nothing political there.
Where I do get political is in thinking that the financial credibility of a veni restructuring depends on how much oil veni produces and exports irrespective of who is president or how that person was elected. And I agree with Leo that big oil investments require a veni restructuring not necessarily an election.
I imagine big oils transmitted that to DT, hence yesterday's license.
My personal hope is that Delcy remains president until 2030... a restructuring takes place under her mandate asap and that big investments flow to veni and lift oil production to 3.5mm bpd. Then Cruella can come in with her crew.
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05-06-26 carib
| (Bonos de Venezuela aún pueden subir 16% por recuperación petrolera, según Morgan Stanley) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/bonos-de-venezuela-aun-pueden-subir-16-por-recuperacion-petrolera-segun-morgan-stanley/ |
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05-06-26 carib
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05-06-26 carib
Savo: your views, and adjectives used, are based on political preferences, which are entirely legitimate.
Given neither of us sits in the White House or in Miraflores, obviously such preferences are irrelevant.
What we can actually do is buy (if optimistic) or sell (if pessimistic).
I guess the relevant point, for us and for Veny, is long term political and financial credibility of any restructuring.
It can be done tomorrow morning, as far as I am concerned, but NPV of the offer depends on stability and expectations.
In the absence of a decent government, actually, most veny diaspora (and $$$) will stay abroad, and there will be a lack of brainpower to restart the country. |
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05-06-26 spal
| IDF CHIEF ANNOUNCES PLANS FOR MULTIPLE TARGETS IN IRAN. |
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05-06-26 savo
| carib..i do not see anything political in my opinion that Cruella will want a higher haircut than Delcy..hence the sooner the better.. that is why i worried when looking into the details of the license. |
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05-06-26 spal
IRAN HAS NOT RESPONDED TO THE LATEST U.S. PROPOSAL DUE TO SOME UNACCEPTABLE TERMS, ACCORDING TO AN UNNAMED SOURCE FROM TASNIM NEWS AGENCY.
===
Trump is negotiating with himself |
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05-06-26 spal
| SENIOR IRAN MP SAYS AXIOS TEXT MORE AN AMERICAN WISH LIST THAN REALITY, U.S. WILL NOT GAIN ANYTHING IN LOSING WAR THAT THEY HAVE NOT GAINED IN FACE-TO-FACE TALKS - POST ON X |
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05-06-26 carib
The United States and Iran are closing in on a one-page memo to end their war, a Pakistani source involved in the peace efforts told Reuters on Wednesday, confirming an Axios report citing two US officials.
"We will close this very soon. We are getting close," the source said, with Pakistan's Foreign Minister adding that the country is working to ensure the agreement would lead to a "permanent end" to the conflict.
According to Axios, the US expects a response from Iran within 48 hours regarding the key points of a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson told CNBC later on Wednesday that the proposal was being "evaluated."
The one-page document would reportedly require an end to hostilities and the start of a 30-day negotiation period.
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05-06-26 panasonic
Oil melting down, precious metals back from ashes.
Pilly, soxl a biuty ;-) |
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05-06-26 pillz
grote waarderingskloof tussen chipbedrijven onderling
Table with 2 columns and 10 rows. (column headers with buttons are sortable)
10 voorbeelden Koers/winstverhouding*
Intel 102
AMD 44
Broadcom 32
Infineon 31
Nvidia 24
Melexis 24
SanDisk 8
Micron 7
Samsung 6
Sk Hynix 5 |
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05-06-26 pillz
The boom is starting to take on hallucinatory proportions. The KOSPI is already about 75 percent higher this year, after the index also rose about 76 percent in 2025, the strongest climb since the internet bubble in the late 90s. Foreign investors pumped more than 3,000 billion won (1.7 billion euros) into South Korean shares on Wednesday alone, a record amount. At the same time, the South Korean won is also gaining ground against the dollar.
Despite these inflows, the huge valuation gap between US and Asian technology companies remains intact. AMD is trading at about 44 times expected earnings, while Samsung is barely about 6 times. Makers of AI processors currently enjoy a hefty valuation premium, while traditional chip and memory players remain valued much cheaper despite their crucial role in the AI chain. |
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05-06-26 leopardo
They need to be market friendly if they want to closae the restructuring quickly, wich is needed to reestablish investments and usd flows into the country.
I'm positive and will keep my position.
I might sell no more than 10% of it in June.
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05-06-26 carib
Thanks Leo.
Claim being about 100BB, NPV of bonded debt would be around 40BB |
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05-06-26 leopardo
| 80 will be less than 40% of Claim on Vnz 31 for example(Claim is 206) |
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05-06-26 pillz
| D'IETEREN GROUP my biggest holding is up 6.5% , but I think there is more to come till 200-220 |
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05-06-26 leopardo
Carib my opinion is that they have to close debt restructuring relatively quickly if they want investment fo flow into the country.
So, for this reason, I think any proposal must be market friendly.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Vnz 22 \ 31 trade above 80 in the not to distant future(a few months). |
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05-06-26 pillz
| crazy up-day on Belgian schtocks .. my ploblem is to take or to wait for taking plofit , that is the question ..... |
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05-06-26 carib
Savo: I was just asking for a short term (6 months) market view.
I know your political opinion on the matter.
thirty year bonds require visibility and political stability, to have low yields. |
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05-06-26 victor
The United States is set to impose 25 percent tariffs on the European Union’s auto sector, a move that would reverse an agreement reached in August between Washington and the bloc.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC on Monday that the White House is “moving forward with this action”. |
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05-06-26 pillz
| The chip euphoria sends the Seoul stock exchange more than 6 percent higher in the Far East and pushes the local star basket Kospi, where Samsung and SK Hynix account for almost half of the weighting, above 7,000 points for the first time. Since the beginning of this year, the Kospi index has gained more than 40 percent. |
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05-06-26 pillz
| I play akso with ASML , a few time when it go down i sell outs purts and when it go up like today I take profit , did it a few time now .. it can go up and down by 4-6% , it is interesting tool to play |
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05-06-26 pillz
| oooppsvit is : Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) and not qqq |
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05-06-26 pillz
| oooppsvit is : Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) and not qqq |
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05-06-26 pillz
Pana, it is normal it follow 3x qqq , but ewy is simple the index of KOrea : 173.47
+9.88
(+6.04%)
At close: May 5 at 4:00:00 PM EDT
after hours:
179.49
+6.02
(+3.47%) |
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