02-16-26 pillz
| Virtual currencies, real risks. The only guarantee in crypto is risk. |
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02-16-26 Merlino
The end of the universal dollar is already a mature, old story and plenty of currencies and assets have already positioned for this. Nobody can be sure if the trend will continue or will reverse.
THe US has a positive trade in food, energy and other core goods, beside weapons and services. I see no reason US can not reverse the deficit in vehicles. Regarding negative trade in electronic and capital goods they are in large measure importing from their own corps located in other countries.Regarding cheap consumer goodies, well, US can leave that to cheap labour countries, I guess.
With a more balanced trade assuming they continue running deficits, US T&Bs will be largely bought locally not by foreigners.
If all this happens I think most of the rest of the world will cry for renewed US deficits and usd pumping.
I mean, neither me not anybody else, I guess, can be sure how events will unfold |
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02-16-26 savo
spal..
problem is that US exceptionalism is in high tech (and the military.. which in the end is the same thing)...
the US has no particular competitive advantage in oil, mining, automobiles, pharma, clothing, telecom, etc...
it is one more among a number of countries that have very competitive companies in those sectors.
So the US stock market will have to compete with those companies abroad for capital.
But investing in those markets requires selling the dollar... which I think would be a good thing for the US but nonetheless does not mean well for US stocks.
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02-16-26 carib
| We might live in an unbalanced world for quite a while longer, I suppose.The old order is not yet dead, and the new one still unclear. |
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02-16-26 spal
| Expensive-looking stocks in sectors like industrials may actually still be cheap, while cheap-looking stocks in some tech areas may be expensive, as we're at a point where massive disruption is hitting a cyclical upswing. |
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02-16-26 savo
merlino... the trade and current accout deficit are the consequence of the 2 trn budget deficit...
i do not think there is any willingness in congress to balance the budget.
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02-16-26 Merlino
| I do not see why USA can not relatively balance her import/export equation relatively quick. This however would likely dry the world of usd dollar liquidity causing a wide spread recession, a revaluation of the usd and generalized defaults in global debts issued in usd |
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02-15-26 panasonic
| Savo, my estimate of the impact from a substantial slow down in US consumption is far more drastic than most analysts models...the good side, that is coming sooner than we imagine and we'll have the chance to discuss it live in max 3 years. |
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02-15-26 savo
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02-15-26 savo
pana... the rest of the world has always lived in the real economy...
the only one living in the PER 250 tech economy is the US.
What you call easy credit is in fact not paying the bill...because the US exchanges real good for freshly printed dollars.
The US consumes what it does not produce and borrows what it does not save. As such it has been a burden to the rest of the world that has had to finance that excess consumption.
But as the dollar grows so does Liberation Day for the rest of the world... that will not have to carry the US burden anymore... and will be able to consume what it produces and borrow what it saves instead of subsidizing the US consumer.
As I tried to explain.. unsuccessfully... to consume is easy... the problem is to produce...everybody wants to consume but not everybody can produce... the populations of Africa are poor not because they do not want to consume but because they can not produce... what makes a country rich is production... not consumption... Economics is the science of "scarcity" of production... not scarcity of consumption.
Everybody wants to consume... the problem is that at the moment the US sucks a disproportionate amount of goods and savings from the rest of the world because it does not pay for them.. but that is ending.. as capital leaves the US (dollar down, stock market down in real money terms) those goods and savings will be available to the rest of the world to consume and to invest.
And that is what the stock markets in the rest of the world are telling us...compare the S&P with the dax since the dot com... no difference... huge catch up lately..
The US has a tech edge.. and a military edge...remove the tech edge and there is no other edge... given that the military edge is financed by US treasuries, ie by the status of the dollar as reserve currency.
Trump knows it .. and that is why he and his cronies invented the US as crypto capital of the world... they hope to keep the party going through crypto... problem is that nobody else wants to be the crypto capital of the world because nobody wants to be the capital of scam, fraud and tokenised nothing. He can keep the title.. and continue ruining his own economy with it. |
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02-15-26 panasonic
| Spal, perfect days for momentum traders, great ideas tks for sharing. |
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02-15-26 panasonic
Savo, remove easy credit in USA and we, and everyone else, will go to a regular economy.
...all valuations are off, including "real assets", what would keeps its value in your opinion? |
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02-15-26 savo
there was always an anal somewhere able to produce a piece of research with some incomprehensible tech jargon to justify what PLTR at 250 times earnings is reasonable...
less easy to justify 250 PER for GM, Xerox, Ford or Exxon. |
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02-15-26 savo
Hard asset bull run ... massive rotation ...
that would be another nail in the coffin of the US economy.
hard assets real economy companies produce what they produce.. and grow in line with the economy....
All they tech hype of the last 25 has been the main creator of wealth in the US... remove it and the US economy has nothing else to show...
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02-15-26 victor
| The Democrats refuse to vote for Voter I.D., or Citizenship. The reason is very simple — They want to continue to cheat in Elections. This was not what our Founders desired. I have searched the depths of Legal Arguments not yet articulated or vetted on this subject, and will be presenting an irrefutable one in the very near future. There will be Voter I.D. for the Midterm Elections, whether approved by Congress or not! Also, the People of our Country are insisting on Citizenship, and No Mail-In Ballots, with exceptions for Military, Disability, Illness, or Travel. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP |
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02-15-26 spal
AI-driven equity disruption was everywhere this past week, spreading like wildfire beyond software into insurance, commercial real estate, financials, shipping, wealth management, and likely many more industries in the coming trading sessions.
One industry in the crosshairs of AI disruption is Hollywood. Some of the publicly traded studios include The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Paramount Global, Sony Group Corporation, Netflix, Lionsgate, and others.
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Hard asset bull run ... massive rotation ... |
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