10-09-26 victor
| Una deuda por narcotráfico habría llevado a Nicolás Maduro a negociar la entrega de explosivos de las reservas del Ejército venezolano a las Farc, en una operación que, según la justicia estadounidense, buscaba saldar compromisos económicos con la antigua guerrilla colombiana y que habría contribuido a fortalecer su capacidad para ejecutar ataques en territorio nacional. |
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10-08-26 savo
obviously coupon rates on the new bonds have to have some relationship with UST rates...
if 10 year USTs are at 8%... a 50% haircut and a 1 to 7 rate will not fly.
Meanwhile US mortgage rates now sitting comfortably above 7%.. i think we are going to see 9% rates next year...
That will freeze the US housing market and set the US economy in reverse course.
For 40 years rates went down and home prices went up... allowing refinancing and more spending... now.. refi is dead... and so taking equity out. Consumption will tank in real terms.
Stagflation for years to come.
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10-08-26 carib
“The moment the general public understands the issue is the moment you buy the bonds,”
I think it might take a few weeks.. |
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10-08-26 carib
El canciller (de Venezuela) Félix Plasencia afirmó que Venezuela trabaja para viabilizar la reestructuración de su deuda externa basada en la sostenibilidad anclada a la capacidad real de pago y un alivio sustancial de sus obligaciones.
Además, destacó que el proceso contempla la cobertura integral de todos los pasivos externos, bajo principios de buena fe, transparencia, trato comparable entre acreedores y celeridad para lograr un acuerdo rápido y consensuado. |
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10-08-26 pillz
France, the stress bellwether
Until further notice, France is the canary in the coal mine for investors looking for signs of distress in the global economy and financial markets.
France’s government bonds have endured a punishing selloff, handing investors a 4.6% loss this year. Fund managers view the country’s fiscal mess and political gridlock as a bigger version of the problems facing many nations around the world.
In the latest indicator of the turmoil, almost €215 billion of France’s corporate bonds now trade as if they were safer than the government’s, a near 18-fold increase since the start of 2026.
As confidence in French government debt erodes, investors are flocking to corporate bonds, especially from multinationals like L’Oreal. (The finance minister is trying to reassure investors the country has no problem finding buyers for its bonds.)
The stress is spreading to bank stocks. The Stoxx 600 bank index is posting its biggest two-day drop since March, and Société Générale shares have lost a quarter of their value in two months.
Of course, if France passes a credible 2027 budget before year end with proper noises from politicians about further reining in the country’s finances,10-year bonds yielding close to 5% could start lure buyers.
Some fund managers are starting to add slightly to their holdings. Others say they’re waiting for fiscal austerity to gain wider acceptance in France. So far, there is little sign of that, with protests by students and teachers demanding more money for education.
“The moment the general public understands the issue is the moment you buy the bonds,” said Elliot Hentov at State Street Investment Management.
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10-08-26 victor
here it is.
//
Nicolás Maduro y su esposa enfrentan nuevos cargos por presuntas torturas a ciudadanos estadounidenses
CNN
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Fiscales de Nueva York presentaron este jueves nuevos cargos contra el expresidente de Venezuela Nicolás Maduro y su esposa, Cilia Flores, por la presunta tortura de ciudadanos estadounidenses y otras personas que estuvieron bajo custodia del Gobierno venezolano en los últimos años.
Cada uno de ellos enfrenta un cargo adicional de conspiración para cometer tortura, según la acusación formal. CNN informó por primera vez el miércoles que se esperaban estos cargos.
Los fiscales alegan que, cuando Maduro asumió la presidencia en 2013, “autorizó el uso de la tortura contra personas específicas y supervisó un sistema diseñado para emplear la tortura, la detención arbitraria y la violencia como medios de represión contra la oposición política”, según la acusación.
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10-08-26 Merlino
| None, I think...unless UST yields plummet |
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10-08-26 carib
For example: which Colore would keep holding a long PDVsa bond with a YTM of 6%?
None, I suppose. |
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10-08-26 carib
| I think 8% exit yield could be more realistic. |
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10-08-26 Merlino
a 1%-7% bond, IMHO, would NOT trade @75, with UST bonds yielding 5,5%.
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Yes, likely not...UST yield very important
The calculation was made assuming a mkt YTM of 6%...unlikely with USDT @ 5.5%
However negotiators I guess will reluctantly accept a lesser recovery...then haircut and other parameters would be adjusted accordingly |
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10-08-26 carib
But take 30% haircut on claim..
the new bond would be nominal 150, and to get to recovery 80
you would need a price around 55.
Easier solution would be a PAR with low coupon and longer duration and a discount with higher coupon after haircut. |
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10-08-26 carib
Let us consider the 2022s 12,75%.
by the middle of next year claim should be around 215.
cut that 50%, and you get 107.
for recovery to get to 80 you would need the new bond to trade above 75.
a 1%-7% bond, IMHO, would NOT trade @75, with UST bonds yielding 5,5%. |
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10-08-26 carib
Merlino: understood. You suggest a possible average 45% recovery on claim. That would be nice.
a 50% haircut on claim, plus a new bond trading around 50, on the other hand, would produce a 25% recovery. |
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10-08-26 savo
and I would it the work for free!
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10-08-26 Merlino
| As a rule of thumb one can estimate that current bond prices may have about 20/100 to go from here to the start of serious news and negotiations on restructuring and (being lucky) another 20/100 to go from there to restructuring exit |
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10-08-26 savo
the point is that restructuring without so much fuss and stupid DSA... is in the interest of both veni that stops accruing larger coupons on a larger amount and investors who start seeing some cash.
if they give me the mandate... the news bonds will be in your accounts by December 1st. |
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10-08-26 savo
| exactly.. prices would double from here... a detachable warrant would add to it. |
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10-08-26 Merlino
| Carib fwiw I also think 1% initial coupon is low. Besides, I have not considered in my calculation any additional tied to oil production increases or gdp grow |
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10-08-26 Merlino
Merlino: that would be well below current prices.
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Current prices only about 25% of total claim (face+accrued) I think |
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10-08-26 carib
BTW:
The Flydubai co-pilot who tried to hijack a flight to Tel Aviv is a former cryptocurrency speculator who four years ago was living with his parents and calling women “rotten meat” on a now disabled social media account.
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10-08-26 carib
Sorry: do you mean that the average new bond, with a nominal of 50% of claim, that is about the same current nominal, would trade around 45, or do you mean that recovery would be 45% of claim?
Personally, I think a 50% haircut on claim is reasonable, provided the new bond does not just offer an initial 1% coupon.
Such an initial coupon would be ok for a PAR bond, not for a DISCOUNT, IMHO.
Of course, if there is a generous oil warrant worth 20.. that would change the picture. |
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10-08-26 carib
Merlino: that would be well below current prices.
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10-08-26 Merlino
I think a restructured veni will trade with a 6% handle.
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Assuming I have correctly calculated this it results in a mkt price of 45.9% on total claim |
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10-08-26 carib
3) there never was a "kicked out" procedure, obviously.
I am not a Le Pen supporter, but the fact is we are witnessing a very radical chenge of strategy, here, IMHO motivated by the issued I mentioned yesterday. |
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10-08-26 carib
Savo:
1) in your opinion, what could be the initial price of the new Veny bond you imagine?
2) I think it is worth watching the RN press conference video I posted. |
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10-08-26 leopardo
I'm waiting Savo: I'm 50% Vnz 31 50% Pdvsa 24\35\21.
Let's wait and see...........I'm doing that since a looong time having traded the debt a few times.
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10-08-26 savo
merlino... in my opinion... the sooner the better... it is all a guessing exercise anyway... better do the haircut now and cut coupons and stop accruing at high coupon rates on 100% of the debt plus accrued waiting for Centerview to find the holy grail.
I think a restructured veni will trade with a 6% handle. |
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10-08-26 savo
carib.. is she actually proposing to make real cuts in spending?
because all i read recently is about reducing the growth of certain spending items.
France has a budget deficit of almost 5.5%
what happened to the Mastricht limit of 3% or you get kicked out?
Europe is unsolvable...
if you stick at the 3% someone else will overshoot it and everybody pays the price...
If you go above... may be others don't hence you benefit from other countries good behavior.
There is no incentive to be below 3%...so everybody maxes out.
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10-08-26 Merlino
restrcuturing veni's debt is very simple... haircut 50%... new 20 year bond amortizing from year 10... coupon stepping up from 1% to 7%... and to please Leo ..an oil price kicker.
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Assuming this will be done later today...what is your guess of the (mkt) NPV of current total claim? 40-45% range? |
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10-08-26 carib
Someone wrote a good speech with numbers for Marine..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AukTdzBcgpc |
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10-08-26 savo
euro satanist...
https://www.cato.org/blog/european-leaders-reject-free-speech-americans-shouldnt-follow-suit |
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10-08-26 carib
| Leo: obviously someone bought the OAT at issuance.. but IMHO with low IQ if planning to hold long term: one never buys long duration bonds when rates are at historical minimum. It's a time to get in debt, not to buy debt! |
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10-08-26 savo
esta publicación permitirá evaluar con mayor precisión la sostenibilidad de la deuda
jajajaja!!!
they do not know who will come to extract oil... how much oil will be extracted...when it will be extracted... or at what price it will be sold...
hence... it is all guessing...
restrcuturing veni's debt is very simple... haircut 50%... new 20 year bond amortizing from year 10... coupon stepping up from 1% to 7%... and to please Leo ..an oil price kicker. |
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10-08-26 leopardo
| https://www.elnacional.com/2026/10/centerview-partners-prepara-documento-para-reestructurar-la-deuda-de-venezuela/ |
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10-08-26 leopardo
Centerview Partners prepara documento para reestructurar la deuda de Venezuela
El economista Alejandro Grisanti considera que esta publicación permitirá evaluar con mayor precisión la sostenibilidad de la deuda, determinar el alivio necesario y definir una estrategia de negociación acorde con la capacidad futura de pago |
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10-08-26 leopardo
Carib pension funds and some retail...
Someone surely bought it.
Issue is around 14 billions |
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