04-19-26 spal
Vic - I got kind of a boring and diplomatic answer:
Reasoning Behind the "Tie"
Identifying a "winner" in this category is impossible because both sides are playing different games.
Iran is playing a single-player long game focused on the survival of its regime and regional influence.
The U.S. is playing a multi-player short game where the "truth" of a negotiation is often secondary to how that negotiation is perceived by voters in Ohio or allies in Riyadh. |
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04-19-26 victor
| spal, ask the AI who is the bigger bullshitter, dt or iran's leaders :-)) |
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04-19-26 spal
Strait of Hormuz - Operating Hours
Monday - Thursday: 11 AM – 3:30 PM
Friday: Closed
Saturday: 8:30 AM – 11:30 AM
Sunday: Closed |
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04-19-26 spal
IRAN HAS CONTROL OVER ALL HORMUZ TRAFFIC, OFFICIAL SAYS
IRAN’S TOP NEGOTIATOR SAYS SIGNIFICANT GAPS REMAIN WITH U.S.
IRAN SAYS WAR MAY RESUME AT ANY TIME: WSJ |
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04-19-26 victor
savo, Delcy will have no choice but to call early elections
//
no, she won't ... unless she's pressured by the dt admin to have early elections.
she won't because she would lose. |
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04-19-26 savo
Merlino...
if Trumps does not lift sanctions... Delcy will have no choice but to call early elections ..whoever wins..the good or the evil... sanctions will be lifted |
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04-18-26 Merlino
https://x.com/x/status/2045550776756449400
.............................
This veni crow is mainly composed of migrants, people who left the country....meaning almost 100% opposed to chavismo....my guess is that MCM has not as many followers/voters in Veni as she/they claim she has, as she is part of the traditionally privileged minority white class who has always betrayed the general population |
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04-18-26 carib
| meaning: either it remains a protectorate, run at gunpoint, or they need clean elections delivering a pro-business government. |
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04-18-26 carib
| New investment.. requires legally solid long term contracts, enforced "manu militari", if necessary. |
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04-18-26 savo
yes carib.. i saw that... usual PP ...she knows how to play the crowds and has her followers...
but the game is not played at Puerta del Sol...
gladly none of the european presidents that received her changed his IMF and World Bank votes which is what she was asking.
In any case...Trump will have to revise strategy if he wants veni to ramp up production seriously. Licenses are enough for corps to reinvest what they are making in veni... new investments require sanctions to be lifted.
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04-18-26 carib
| Savo: https://x.com/x/status/2045550776756449400 |
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04-18-26 carib
| The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East.(WSJ) |
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04-18-26 savo
leo.. remember greece? the new bonds had a coupon of 3%... started trading at 12... eventually went to par.
A veni at full capacity will be unstoppable... should trade through Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Panama, Colombia
The most recent restructurings had the following haircuts
Sri lanka 28%
Zambia 18%
Ghana 37%
Ukraine 20%
then there were all sort of creative options to recover that...
the point is that my guess of a 50% haircut (given the size of accrued) is a maximum... it will probably be less .. and recent experience shows that creditors do not lose that % irrevocably ... there were clauses to recover that based on economic performance... export prices... tax collection... etc...
So sit and relax.. let the music play...
the only problem I see is the evil psycho... that woman is a curse...
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04-18-26 carib
| how much would PDVsa be worth, if it was called ArAmCo? |
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04-18-26 leopardo
| Yes, Carib, I agree. My feeling however is that, unless there’s a nasty move by Trump, all PDVSA and Venezuelan (VNZ) bonds can still gain another 50%+. |
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04-18-26 spal
pls dont tell VanEck, its between colores only.
===
LOL ... only we would understand this degree of cynicism anyway.
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04-18-26 carib
The Trump family’s World Liberty crypto venture faces a backlash after provoking criticism of its governance from one of its largest backers, the crypto tycoon Justin Sun, and taking out a loan tied to its token.
The WLFI token issued by the company, which counts Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump as co-founders, has fallen nearly 16 per cent over the past month.
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04-18-26 carib
| Leo: I guess the key will be the exit yield.. |
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04-18-26 carib
Panas: I think the iranians, as usual, are bluffing.
I agree with Barnea. |
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04-18-26 victor
what happened to the trade embargo? we are waiting. :-))
//
Has anybody looked at how badly the country of Spain is doing. Their financial numbers, despite contributing almost nothing to NATO and their military defense, are absolutely horrendous. Sad to watch!!! |
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04-18-26 victor
pana, you are right.
even though the credibility of iran seems to be at lows. |
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04-18-26 leopardo
Methink that for Vnz 31/22
Pdvsa 22 for example a recovery of 80 is feasable.
40% of claim more or Less. |
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04-18-26 leopardo
Good Carib
Vnzuela already has a lot of debt we do not need much more… |
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04-18-26 carib
La presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, aseguró este viernes que su Gobierno no tiene previsto un programa de endeudamiento tras reanudar las relaciones con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), interrumpidas hace siete años.
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04-18-26 panasonic
Me think fragmentation of power in Iran has to be solved before making any projections.
Building alternatives in the Middle East to transport oil will take more time and money than infrastructure in Veni to extract 5MM barrels a day, pls dont tell VanEck, its between colores only. |
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04-18-26 panasonic
Vic, I wonder what will oil traders say monday?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/18/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel |
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04-18-26 victor
so what is the colores verdict of how iran will end?
regime change in the near future?
somebody said it would be mission failure if no regime change. |
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04-18-26 spal
Israel Strikes Lebanon Less Than an Hour After Trump Says It’s ‘PROHIBITED’ From More Attacks
===
So I guess not good listeners?
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04-18-26 spal
| Given the massive supply outage… the U.S. extended the waiver for Russian crude. |
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04-18-26 spal
TRUMP SIGNALS CEASEFIRE UNCERTAINTY WITH IRAN
SAYS HE MAY NOT EXTEND CEASEFIRE NEXT WEEK
WARNS HE COULD RESUME STRIKES IF NEEDED
ADDS “I THINK IT’S GONNA HAPPEN” ON DEAL BEFORE WALKING AWAY
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More quantum behavior from Schrödinger's Trump.
"It might not happen, it could happen, I think its gonna happen" |
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04-18-26 savo
David Austerweil
Deputy Portfolio Manager
David is the Deputy Portfolio Manager for the active Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy and has been at the firm since 2012. Prior to VanEck, David was Vice President at ING Financial Services on the Emerging Markets Credit Trading & Structuring desk David has a MS, Financial Engineering from Columbia University and BA, Computer Science from Columbia University.
good background...
problem... the guy is in Australia...
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