10-10-26 spal
Logistics & Component Transfer via Dhow Networks: Coastal surveillance along the Gulf of Oman and eastern Yemen (Mahra/Hadramout transit corridors) tracked covert skiff/dhow movements transferring high-value guidance packages—specifically electro-optical seeker heads, solid-fuel booster components, and UAV engine kits—from IRGC fast-supply dhows to Houthi smuggling cells.
Subterranean Assembly Support: Iranian technical advisors from IRGC Aerospace Force Unit 190 remain embedded in subterranean assembly facilities near Saada, actively assisting Houthi technicians with rapid assembly and pre-launch calibration of long-range ballistic salvoes. |
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10-10-26 spal
| Strategic Intent: To force Riyadh into immediate, unilateral concessions (e.g., funding Yemeni civil accounts, permanently unblocking Hodeidah, and ending support for the Presidential Leadership Council) by demonstrating that static air defenses cannot insulate core national assets. |
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10-10-26 panasonic
Carib, we agree...the only thing I'm adding is some incentive for the lending side to make it more sexy, otherwise private lenders will prefer to sit & wait for those willing to pay full new rates.
Maybe the difference in our views is that many homes today exceed Gov. agencies baseline, and those are best candidates to move for extra space.
Above the High-Cost Ceiling ("True" Jumbos)
If a loan exceeds the maximum high-cost ceiling for that specific county (or exceeds $832,750 in a standard-cost county), it becomes a Non-Agency Jumbo Loan.
• Who backs it: Nobody in terms of a government-sponsored entity.
• Who holds the risk: The risk is borne entirely by private markets. These mortgages are usually held by:
• Commercial Banks: Large private banks (like Chase, Bank of America, or Wells Fargo) keep these on their own balance sheets as portfolio loans because jumbo borrowers are often lucrative wealth-management clients.
• Private-Label Securitizers: Wall Street firms package them into Private-Label Securities (PLS) and sell them to institutional investors (like pension funds and hedge funds) without any federal or agency guarantee
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10-10-26 spal
| Magnitude of the Escalation Step: Extreme (Level 4/4). The conflict is no longer an asymmetrical threat to maritime transit. The simultaneous targeting of Ghawar, Shedgum, Hawiyah, and Shaybah, alongside repeated long-range missile salvos against Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport (RUH), represents an uninhibited push to dismantle Saudi Arabia's primary economic engine and paralyze civil transport. |
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10-10-26 spal
New York Times reports 12 killed and 50 wounded in today’s Houthi missile strike against a passenger terminal at Riyadh Airport in Saudi Arabia
Saudi's need to pay a big bribe to stop this ... this gets worse if they continue with airstrikes. |
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10-10-26 spal
PDVsa could turn into VeAmsa, in a dollarized economy, with local militaries obeying Washington orders, and VeAmsa would have no reason to issue debt unless at very low rates.
But right now it's a bankrupt concessionary, subject to washington's erratic decisions, possibly losing grounds to robber barons of various stripes.
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A very tight definition capable only by a Colore |
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10-10-26 carib
| It'a bad deal.. but actually the ukr drones are now locally made. |
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10-10-26 savo
on the US-Russia diesel deal...
isn't Ukraine bombing Russian refineries with Nato weapons? |
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10-10-26 carib
Though publicly optimistic about Republicans’ chances, (House speaker) Johnson has contemplated the possibility of failure. He later told Fox News that if the GOP lost its House majority, he might return to Louisiana and “start a lawn business.”
WSJ |
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10-10-26 Merlino
This private borrowing (which is concentrated in the long term) is likely also impacting USDT 10-30 Y yields
"The AI boom is becoming a debt boom and credit markets are getting nervous. Oracle’s 5y CDS trades near a record 261bps, implying a 20.4% default probability. SpaceX: 16.5%. Even Nvidia: >7%. AI-related borrowers have issued nearly $500bn of debt this year, Bloomberg reports" |
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10-10-26 carib
CAIRO (AP) — The airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, was attacked again on Saturday and evacuated, two regional officials said, two days after three Saudi citizens including a pilot were killed as the kingdom faces an extraordinary series of assaults in the new front in the Iran war.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak to the media. Ambulances were seen rushing in the direction of the airport.
Flights to Riyadh were diverting elsewhere, the Flightradar24 tracker said, almost four hours after the last flight landed at 2:05 p.m. Kuwait Airways said it was canceling flights because the airport had closed. Canada’s embassy advised citizens to avoid all travel to the airport, noting “ongoing military activity.” |
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10-10-26 carib
| Panas: In my understanding the odd US 30Y fixed rate refinanceable loan sits on federal law and federal agencies. A simple law, I guess, could make mortgages portable, insofar as the lender maintains an equal or higher security. No political need to please the banks, insofar as you please the voters. |
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10-10-26 carib
Take the case of a couple who bought the first home in 2021, for 600K, with a 500K mortgage. Now they have two children, and need a larger home. They still owe 470K to the lender, and the property is now worth 650K. monthly payment of 2.400$.
They would like to switch to a 800K home, but if they sell and add some equity, now a 500K mortgage would cost 5.000$ a month: too much, so they stay put.
If they are allowed to keep the old mortgage, and add 180K in cash, selling some shares, their cost remains 2.400$ a month, that can easily afford. The lender would sit on a more valuable security, and be safer. No need to increase the rate to balance risk.
On the other side, an older couple would like to downgrade, because their kids are now adults living on their own. The house they bought for 500K is now worth 800K, and still has a 300K mortgage debt at a low rate. If they can keep that mortgage going, they sell the 800K house to buy the 600K one. They get all the required equity from the switch, and the lender still sits on a 600K security for a 300K debt, so remains secured.
Why not make this easy?
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10-10-26 panasonic
KSA attacks confirms that Iranian military power was intended for shiites "higher purposes".
China will continue to use it to force political charges in USA, will it stop after midterms as some anals predict or extended till Republicans are out of the W/H in two years? Place your bets. |
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10-10-26 panasonic
| Carib, I agree ... but giving the bank the extra sweetener makes the idea more "likely", any increased amount calculation must be at current rate plus flat fees. |
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10-10-26 carib
| Panas: in my ignorance, probably, I do not see a structural problem in making US mortgage contracts portable, after a few years after subscription, provided the new asset is more valuable than the previous one.The security of the lender should increase in the process, and the cost of the required due diligence could be charged to the client.There should be no reason to increase the interest rate, if the client changes residence to the new address, but the client might just need to add equity for the purchase. |
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10-10-26 carib
| Merlino: my take is that, as long as past experience is still guidance for the future, at a given level high interest rates generate a recession, and a recession causes lower or stationary interest rates. |
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10-10-26 Merlino
....a further sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields — from the current level of 5.29 per cent — is “feasible” as investors like hedge funds are forced to ditch their losing bets on bonds following weeks of heavy selling in the $32tn market.
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This would be pure mkt action and very diferent if a further rise was due to higher inflation and/or lack of UST buyers....meaning it would be an investment opportunity ...am I wrong? |
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10-10-26 carib
Savo: That is correct. ArAmCo.. is arab-american company.
PDVsa could turn into VeAmsa, in a dollarized economy, with local militaries obeying Washington orders, and VeAmsa would have no reason to issue debt unless at very low rates.
But right now it's a bankrupt concessionary, subject to washington's erratic decisions, possibly losing grounds to robber barons of various stripes.
I would be happy, as I said, to get a cash recovery of 50% of claim next year. |
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10-10-26 savo
carib.. under current circumstances i can not imagine pdvsa trading tighter then USTs... but if circumstances improve dramatically... and i think that can happen given the strategic importance of veni crude supply to the west... Veni could turn into a Saudi Arabia.. but much closer.
Think of the enormous amounts of money the US has spent to protect middle east oil supply... when the same amount is laying underground veni 2000 km from Key West in an area without conflict. |
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10-10-26 carib
Savo: I can also imagine Apple bonds yielding less than UST. I just cannot imagine, probably due to the limits of my imagination, PDVsa bonds in US$ yielding less than UST bonds.
I would certainly not oppose it, but just do not expect it.
The reason being the US can crush Veny at will, but the opposite cannot happen.
For the rest, I think we agree on the old rule that is something cannot go on for ever.. it will not. |
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10-10-26 carib
US benchmark borrowing costs risk hitting 6 per cent for the first time in 26 years as fears over high oil prices, inflation and America’s towering public debt roil the world’s most important bond market, Pimco has warned.
Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer at bond giant Pimco, said that a further sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields — from the current level of 5.29 per cent — is “feasible” as investors like hedge funds are forced to ditch their losing bets on bonds following weeks of heavy selling in the $32tn market.
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10-10-26 spal
| Disrupting gas treatment immediately starves Saudi domestic power generation, desalination plants, and industrial petrochemical feedstocks, while impairing crude oil separation pressure. |
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10-10-26 spal
New reports indicate fires at three locations within Saudi Arabia’s critical oil and gas infrastructure:
- Shedgum Gas Plant, Ghawar: A fire has been reported, with a possible Yemeni strike suspected. The cause has not been independently confirmed.
- Hawiyah Gas Plant, Ghawar: Satellite imagery reportedly shows smoke rising from the facility, although the cause remains unconfirmed.
- Shaybah Oil Field: A fire has also been reported, but there is no confirmed information regarding its cause. |
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10-10-26 spal
Large smoke plumes at Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Field, the world's largest oil field, following an Ansarullah ballistic missile attack.
Boom |
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10-10-26 spal
anker owners are printing money from the oil crisis
A supertanker from the US Gulf to 🇨🇳 China now costs $80M, more than a SpaceX launch.
Freight is $41 a barrel, against $4.50 on the same route last year. That is 45% of the value of the oil on board.
💰 Owners collect it. Listed shipping companies are worth a record $ 70bn+, and the second-hand price of a new tanker hit a record $240M.
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10-10-26 spal
Russian diesel deal - although symbolic further raises the demand for transport on the already highly constrained supply of compliant clean tankers.
The deal requires G7/compliant main-fleet clean product tankers rather than dark-fleet vessels. Pulling these compliant ships to haul Russian diesel under US waivers absorbs active market capacity, creates localized tonnage shortages in standard Western Atlantic routes, and expands global clean ton-miles—providing a net positive catalyst for clean product tanker rates. |
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10-10-26 spal
| Under these escalation conditions, tanker rates do not merely rise incrementally; they re-price into a structural crisis regime. As long as the Houthi-Saudi conflict threatens the southern maritime flank while Iran enforces a wide-area interdiction policy across the Arabian Sea, tanker availability will remain constrained, ton-miles will remain stretched, and spot freight rates will remain near record highs. |
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10-10-26 spal
The IRGC is stating that if a vessel bypasses their clearance guidelines or uses unapproved shipping lanes in Hormuz, it will not simply be turned back or fired upon at the choke point—it will be tracked, pursued, and targeted across the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, and broader Indian Ocean corridors.
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This will be amped up now as will the Houthi assault on the Saudis. Saudis will need help. |
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10-10-26 spal
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10-10-26 spal
| Savo - the market is signaling that rates must rise. I agree that there are less and less willing borrowers at current prices and more and more of the market will be engineered to force absorption. We are in default already - it is via inflation and financial repression. |
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10-09-26 savo
carib.. i can think perfectly well of a future in which solvent creditors trade below UST rates.
That is happening already in several european countries in euro rates and in Latam too. Several argie corps and provs, for example, trade tighter than the sov.. both in local currency and dollars.
The US can not get out of its debt trap without default. Default can take many forms... it is not that it is going to happen... it is happening already.
Libertarians say interest rates do not exist because of the Central bank... they exist because time exists...and their role is to clear present vs future consumption.
When the Central bank artificially suppresses them...there is two much consumption and too little saving... hence too much debt... and too little investment.
If the Fed would allow the market to set rates...as it should... the US would get out of its debt trap... but it is not going to happen.
The US can have little debt and low interest rates... too much debt and low interest rates... but can not have both too much debt and high interest rates... that is were it is right now... and on top they weaponized the dollar..so they have no takers of USTs unless they pay higher and higher rates.
The US will not go down without a fight... so expect many more wars in the process. |
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10-09-26 panasonic
| Carib, making mortgages portable would certainly unlock RE, even with a 100bps increase to migrate would work. |
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10-09-26 carib
Concerning the 2-3% mortgages, in my opinion the only viable solution to unblock the RE market is to make them portable.
Obviously those mortgages are worth much below par for the creditor, but I assume the creditor matched those loans with equal duration bonds issued at even lower rates. |
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10-09-26 carib
Savo: The world currently looks quite crazy to me.. but I do not expect the USA to default on its debt... because there is no need to do so.
Anyway, for the time being this is financial fiction.
Venezuela is still in default, and is still not extracting the amount of oil necessary to put it back on a sound trajectory. It certainly can do so within the next 24-36 months, provided it remains a sort of US protectorate, in my opinion.
Left to themselves.. they have no track record of sound economy and finances in the last 40 years, and they do not even have a viable currency, in reality.
I hope there is a viable restructuring of Veny/PDVsa debt within the next 12 months, and I will decide if selling or holding once the terms are made public.
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10-09-26 savo
... add to those 30 trn... the i do not know how many trillions of mortgages at 2 o 3 %...
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10-09-26 savo
carib.. that is old thinking... the US is going to default... either returning to its creditors dollars that will buy a very small fraction of what they bought when those dollars werelent... or simply by repudiating the debt. The first avenue will provoke massive inflation and the second will provoke massive inflation too.
People are selling USTs... nobody is buying USTs willingly as Spal pointed out...
30 trn of treasuries are sitting somewhere in US accounts... banks.. insurance companies... funds...the FED... which marked to market will bankrupt the US financial sector immediately.
The US borrowed three new trillion over the last 12 months... meaning 3tr was the real and honestly calculated fiscal deficit... next year it will have to pay higher rates on more debt... so the deficit will be larger ..US debt has become ponzi.
We are contemplating the end game...live.
So it is perfectly possible that foreign commodity exporting solvent creditors like veni will trade below USTs or at that level because they will be awash in dollars or they ask to be paid in gold...as I would recommend.
The only unknown I have is whether veni's oil will not be simply robbed by the US.. ie taken but not paid. |
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10-09-26 victor
Acosado por las encuestas, Trump anuncia un acuerdo con Putin para que EE.UU. reciba diésel de Rusia
El presidente de EE.UU. recurre al rival tradicional de la primera potencia mundial para abaratar el combustible, una urgencia política para los republicanos |
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10-09-26 carib
| Savo: my point is that with the UST yielding 5,5%.. new veny bonds with 15 years duration would not have an exit yield of only 6%, and that a 1-7% step up would not be priced much above 60.. hence not far from current prices, possibly lower. |
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10-09-26 victor
| Una deuda por narcotráfico habría llevado a Nicolás Maduro a negociar la entrega de explosivos de las reservas del Ejército venezolano a las Farc, en una operación que, según la justicia estadounidense, buscaba saldar compromisos económicos con la antigua guerrilla colombiana y que habría contribuido a fortalecer su capacidad para ejecutar ataques en territorio nacional. |
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