09-28-26 Merlino
unlimited sufferings
..........................
I have been told martyrdom is one main characteristic of Shia islam (since the Karbala battle) |
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09-28-26 pillz
Hyperinflation taking root now.
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If they don't make a deal , this hyperinflation will be the end of the regime imop , but how long it will take , that is the question |
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09-28-26 pillz
But if the iranian side equates "making a deal" with regime collapse, then they might impose unlimited sufferings to their subjects, before capitulating.
//
I believe we are in this situation ... but why you believe in making a deal will be a regime collapse ?? |
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09-28-26 victor
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09-28-26 spal
| Indeed ... I drink to that. |
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09-28-26 savo
| I picture the Caribetti family more in Lake Como and Cortina than in Tuscany :-) |
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09-28-26 spal
Vic - I believe that it would have been on the shelves of the Carib family palazzi in Umbria, Tuscany and Veneta for almost 500 years ... so he had more than a few chances for close study ...
;) |
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09-28-26 savo
one needs an additional 14 republicans.. voting to make JD Vance President..
carib.. i would as the opposite question? who will not vote to impeach DT ?
Why would anybody want to sink with DT after he loses midterms?
Politicians supports those who take them to victory... not to defeat.
DT wont be a candidate anyway... better get rid of him asap and try to rebuild the mess that he created. |
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09-28-26 victor
carib, how many times did you read The Prince?
:-) |
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09-28-26 carib
if you read key sections of The Prince carefully, it’s clear that Trump is in many ways the poster child for How to Be a Very Bad Prince.
For starters, after arguing that it is better to be feared than loved, Machiavelli points out that there is something even worse: You could end up hated or despised. To avoid the former, he cautions the prince not to go after his subjects’ property or their women. Trump has certainly violated the former rule, having enriched himself at public expense and undermined the well-being of many Americans through his misguided economic policies.
FP |
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09-28-26 carib
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09-28-26 carib
There is a world in which this year’s energy price surge has triggered a second-round inflationary wave that will take many quarters to contain—not a couple of hikes over three months. There is another world in which all of this is contained by itself as demand is curtailed.
Neither we nor the FOMC members know which world we inhabit—and we are both finding out one CPI print at a time. |
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09-28-26 spal
| In the limited case of an Iran resolution I think he is resigned to the fact that this will come after the mid terms - come what may. |
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09-28-26 carib
Mortgage rates (30Y) apparently up to 7,625%.
Not good for housing, I guess.
People with old mortgages not affected, but unable to move, I guess. |
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09-28-26 spal
| Prices will not come down hard = bread. |
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09-28-26 carib
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09-28-26 carib
I think only very dramatic new events (not bread and circus) could significantly alter the mid-terms outcome.
Prices will not come down hard in the next couple of weeks in the US, in a manner than can be felt by consumers. Those things tame time anyway.
But the Sanate outcome is still a tad uncertain. |
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09-28-26 spal
| It is not likely to get settled before the mid terms. Maybe there are other rabbits he will try to pull out of various hats - I nkow that the COLA adjustment to SS will be a blockbuster and he will buy the wrinkly old codgers off with that. Expect more bread and circuses. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
| Spal, in other words, before mid-terms is "soon", after is good, but kind of "politically" late for DT. |
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09-28-26 spal
| Panas - ok I am not following, but I trust you ... to me it is clear that Iran will run out of money soon. That seems to be a pretty real thing. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
| Spal, Carib...things changed with tariffs, but we need to wait a few days to validate anyway. |
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09-28-26 spal
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09-28-26 spal
On September 28, 2026, the Iranian rial plummeted to its lowest level in history, trading at a staggering 2.4 million rials per US dollar on the open market.
Hyperinflation taking root now. |
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09-28-26 carib
I do not see any impact of mid-terms on China's Iran policy.
Traditionally, China had better relations with the US republicans. |
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09-28-26 spal
| I do expect a couple of desperate attacks on GCC countries. We'll see. But that is the only leverage they have left. |
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09-28-26 spal
Only honey they get is from oil sales - they aren't able to sell. That is my point.
China or no China - no Iranian oil is moving (except for what was already in offshore storage). |
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09-28-26 panasonic
| Spal, my take after mid-terms, China will call Ayatollahs and say "no money no honey". |
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09-28-26 spal
| Well - yes they are a Chinese client. Does China have them on a leash - not so sure. Are they running out of money - yes. Will the mid terms change that? No. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
Spal, my thing, the only one with Ayatollah's kill switch is Xi.
Meeting with DT was good, probably all we be sorted out, but first Xi wants Congress in hands of Democrats, makes sense? |
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09-28-26 spal
All in China's hands, they are wisely using the Iran card to force political changes in US.
===
How?
The only oil they are selling is what is offshore on the Malaysian coast.
None of their ships have made it through the US blockade.
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09-28-26 carib
The US calculus, I understand, is that, without oil revenue, the iranian regime runs soon out of money. If China offers good on credit, that might moderate the problem, but not solve it. There is also the logistical problem of shipping goods to Tehran.
Trump, in a business logic, assumes the ayatollahs will then understand that "making a deal" will be the least bad outcome.
But if the iranian side equates "making a deal" with regime collapse, then they might impose unlimited sufferings to their subjects, before capitulating.. |
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09-28-26 carib
Savo: where do you imagine the required 2/3 of the senate votes coming from to impeach Trump?
Even assuming, optimistically, the Dems get 53 seats, one needs an additional 14 republicans.. voting to make JD Vance President..
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09-28-26 panasonic
"Its money runs out mid Nov."
All in China's hands, they are wisely using the Iran card to force political changes in US. |
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09-28-26 panasonic
"después de que Aldama entregara abundante documentación"
That explains the awkward moment at UN, when Delcy approached Sanchez. |
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09-28-26 savo
what will happen in November.
hopefully impeachment |
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09-28-26 carib
La Audiencia Nacional de España investiga cientos de mensajes entre la presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, y el empresario Víctor de Aldama en los que ambos negocian la compraventa de barcos de petróleo y otro tipo de operaciones millonarias en el país.
El Mundo reveló que el Juzgado de Instrucción número 2 ha ordenado a la Unidad Central Operativa de la Guardia Civil rastrear estas comunicaciones en el marco de la investigación sobre la supuesta financiación irregular del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) después de que Aldama entregara abundante documentación, tras llegar a un acuerdo de colaboración con la justicia española. |
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09-28-26 carib
| Interesting to see what will happen in November.. |
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09-28-26 spal
On SOH - yes, but Iran is not getting its own boats or the dark fleet through. Its only revs are from the depleting storage floating off Malaysia and from protection money and releases in the UAE and from Saudi.
Its money runs out mid Nov. |
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09-28-26 savo
Despite the S&P 500 being close to its all-time high as a whole, Morningstar points out that nearly 60% of individual stocks on the index were actually down 20% or more from their all-time highs (1) in August. They also highlight the current volatility of stock prices, with many moving up and down by as much as 20% in just a few months.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/goldman-sachs-says-80-ultra-111500026.html
no buyers of gold in sight though |
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09-28-26 hann
| My friend spoke to some senior guy from Eneos (jp oil). Eneos guy says oil flowing through SOH, no shortage. Just price is issue. Everyone getting but they have to pay Iran. |
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09-28-26 carib
Two "interesting" tax news.
In the UK, tax authorities are assigning a "compliance officer2 to every billionaire with UK links.
In China, tax authorities have decided it's time to "milk the rich".
US remains oligarchy haven. For now. |
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09-28-26 victor
hann, All bad news.
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not all.. you have good gdp growth. |
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09-28-26 hann
09-27-26 victor
hann, which is why food and vegetables are 2x prices in Indo
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i thought it was due to having thousands of islands, which adds considerably to the costs of moving goods from A to B.
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That too. Average farm size is 0.8ha. Difficult to consolidate because of land reform law (which DOJ said is expired but is unclear). Agri policies make it difficult to resell agri land (seller has to retain portion of harvest). Laws very pro labor. No govt investment in roads, transport, cold chain.
All bad news.
But we already know all that |
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09-27-26 spal
Because the criminal justice system failed to charge the top executives, the civil court system became the primary arena for accountability.
In mid-2026, David and Ina Steiner reached a $55.7 million civil settlement.
===
Interesting. |
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09-27-26 spal
| The eBay cyberstalking case—chronicled in the documentary Whatever It Takes: Inside the eBay Scandal—stands as one of the most surreal and disturbing chapters in modern American corporate history. Behind the bizarre facts (live spiders, bloody pig masks, and physical surveillance sent to two suburban newsletter publishers) lies a story about modern corporate incentives, executive insulation, and the limits of white-collar criminal prosecution. |
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09-27-26 spal
Whatever It Takes: Inside the eBay Scandal.
Just watched this. If you get a chance I highly recommend it. I rarely watch any movie these days, but this one is compelling. It is a spotlight view into the heart of the arrogance and corruption that can dwell within large business fiefdoms, but what was interesting is how this manifests. It shows you just how twisted things have become. |
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09-27-26 victor
hann, which is why food and vegetables are 2x prices in Indo
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i thought it was due to having thousands of islands, which adds considerably to the costs of moving goods from A to B. |
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09-27-26 spal
| Hann - appreciate the broader perspective - thanks for taking the time. Clearly it is not without challenges, but as you frame it clearly within your capabilities and risk tolerance. Please keep us posted on this one! |
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09-27-26 hann
09-27-26 spal
Hann - on the farm project - how are you sure of protection from expropriation risk
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I think u have me mixed up w another colores. Am from Ph, not france. Would of course tried to help your daughter. But it wasn't me :)
Land ownership - expropriation happens with great difficulty only when govt widens roads etc. Still it's complicated to own agri land in Ph. Govt has policy now allowing larger tracts from the 5ha limit in land reform law. But this is subject to challenge. Therefore u need some family members etc to get to critical mass and/or convert to a difft classification which allows large holdings (increases property taxes 10-20x). None of these policies make economic sense which is why food and vegetables are 2x prices in Indo, Malaysia, Th etc. The main challenges I'd say are not from the govt - there are squatters, scammers etc. So the first thing to do is fence and possess the property.
Operations wise - we've started businesses. I have developer friends who share land advice. Still it's on me. I have a sober, realistic view. Not every biz makes it. It's about a 6-8% of portfolio bet, invested over 2-3 years. Failure wouldn't kill me - though I'd feel bad. The main thing is have enough capital to get over the many mistakes, admit/fix problems quickly, keep overhead low, be hands on till u figure it out, build team/systems, be professional. I'd say it takes one's entire being to execute. Is it worth the risk? It seems to work on back of the envelope. My thinking is if it needs excel, returns are too low.
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09-27-26 carib
Former defense minister Yoav Gallant confirmed that Israel did receive a message from Hamas through a Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) channel in which Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warned that he would "shake the prisons," Gallant told Army Radio on Sunday.
Gallant also alleged that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu kept senior security officials, including the defense minister, out of the loop regarding sensitive conversations with senior US officials during the war.
"During the war, I learned many times about important conversations Netanyahu held with the Americans on the most sensitive issues, such as hostages and ammunition, only after the Americans called me and tried to verify what had been said in those conversations," Gallant said. |
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09-27-26 spal
Hann - on the farm project - how are you sure of protection from expropriation risk - excuse my naivety, it is probably just the limitations of my Anglo-Saxon experience talking. And if you don't mind how have you become as comfortable with the jurisdiction - do you have family roots there somehow. I believe that you speak French (among your many other abilities) - you were among the colores who volunteered to help my daughter a couple of years ago when she was detained (because of a cat) on the French border.
Good health tips also! |
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09-27-26 hann
09-27-26 mo-mon
Hann
Well done! 62 is young. Continue with what what you wrote below about fasting etc. I do the same & I'm 63.
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Way too early to say how this will go. No one farms durian at scale in Luzon due to typhoons. I am hoping pruning to 5-6m and planting in valleys will be enough protection. TBH my first phase is not in the safest area. I may need to add phase 2 but let's see.
More on health - suggest to read Dr Greger's how not to die. Very fast read, well supported. But basically wfpb, antioxidants, etc
We do turmeric paste (peeled root blended w black pepper and a little olive oil) every morning. Apple cider vinegar diluted w mix of blended flax seed for DHA (in lieu of fish oil) & small amount of nigella seeds. I used to get 5 bad colds a year. Since we started this i probably have a bad cold once in 2 years. And just black coffee. We get green beans from San Francisco and home roast. |
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09-27-26 carib
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09-27-26 carib
hann: I obviously ment a safe deposit box in Swirzerland or Luxembourg, not the Philippines.
But I am no expert. |
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09-27-26 victor
savo, right.. the implications of such.
also implications for 2028 elections..
dt offers $20k to each citizen if the gop wins the white house..
and $50k if gop wins white house + congress.
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09-27-26 savo
victor
Dumocrats can’t do this!
say the dems win the house... and pass a bill to do 10k instead of 5k
will DT veto it? |
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09-27-26 savo
victor...
bessent clapping.
Not the only one Yes Sir, of course Sir! |
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09-27-26 mo-mon
Hann
Well done! 62 is young. Continue with what what you wrote below about fasting etc. I do the same & I'm 63.
As to farming, you seem to have enough experience. If that durian farm is in the Philippines, I believe it would be preferable to control all aspects from farm to market.
What I should've done a long time ago was to buy/lease a small 5 hectare plot as a getaway from the city. Totally self-sufficient w/ animals (for family consumption of milk, cheese & protein). Heirloom seeds for rice, corn, fruits & vegetables.
Solar-battery-generator energy. Deep well or river water with multi-stage filtration.
As to Philippine banking, only Bank of the Philippine Islands & if you need a second bank, Chinabank.
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09-27-26 spal
| Hann - thanks for the details. The picture just gets better and better! I certainly wish these kind of ventures all the very best. |
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09-27-26 hann
09-26-26 carib
Hann: I am not at all familiar with "vaults".. but I am not sure they cost that much. A normal safe deposit box in a bank vault costs at worse a couple of thousands, and 50 kg of gold fit in a small box.. but are worth over 60MM$..
Now most Colores are old hacks with significant capital. Besides the intellectual and emotional rewards of booking profits, what we need is just to secure a stream of income that allows us to live well and sleep well at night.
Or am I mistaken?
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1.5% singapore private bank quoted us some years back - SG gold vaults just getting started. But... on the internet now I see 0.2 to 0.5%. Our bank sucks, terrible execution. Tempted many times to change but it's hard to open new accounts.
Safety deposit box - I confess not checking. 1-2 decades ago, branches would get robbed in Ph. Also 2016 major bank (now 30% owned by Sumitomo) implicated in that Bangladesh swift scam. Only branch manager jailed. More recently two top ph tier banks issued certifications for billion $ deposits for market darling wirecard fraud.
David Bonderman really liked gold at 250 (interviewed for TPG around 2000).
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What old guys need ... is more life. Unfortunately this means normal BMI, whole food plant based diet, one meal a day, occasional long fasting to train body to burn fat. 95% of people who've lost 30lbs gain 10lbs/year after 2 years. Can't say am fully compliant. But have lost 37lbs, kept this over 8 years. 20lbs more to go.
Future is more pickleball, weight training, vegetables and less alcohol, star meals, etc.
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09-26-26 spal
am building a big durian farm, combo agri + tourism... a little optimistic to do it at 62.
===
Hann - sounds very cool.
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I like it. Family also. Farm + flower corridor + gift shop + simple resto. Wife is willing to work on it if she can hand over her business to my eldest.
Kualoa ranch in Hawaii - 400 acres, dramatic spiked cliffs w panoramic sea views. 40+ movies shot there. E-mountain biking on trails, open fields one of the most fun experiences. 300k visitors per year.
Tomita Farms in hokkaido - 4-5ha, flower corridors w lavender, really not so much to talk about vs Provence. 1mn visitors per year with ridiculous gift shops. For that matter Senanque Abbey in Provence has more ridiculous gift shop.
I have a 60+ ha nice hilly area, 600m from cement road. Steep but plantable, walkable. 100km from my house. A couple of new highways reducing travel time to 2 hours. If/when some more roads get built, maybe 1'30. Have master planner, landscape archi - all concept so fees are low. Want talented archi to do entry pavilion, tasting area, small house. Talked to him 3 years ago when he was just doing tiny houses. Now managing partner of arguably no 1 local archi firm. Not sure I can afford. Really it's a farm so 800 thai cocos, 1000 mixed malaysian durian, 130 mixed orchard (thai, indo mango, some ph, other local fruits). Experienced developer w 350 ha planting. Probably costing me 50% extra vs DIY.
Reality is 5+ years of operating losses till durian fruits. If I do the tourism thing probably I can reduce or eliminate burn. Am probably 60% into capex program. No debt. In theory i can cover capex and sustain burn. Anyway first thing to do is break even
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09-27-26 victor
| We have the BEST FINANCIAL NUMBERS EVER, and the FAKE NEWS MEDIA refuses to report them!!! President DJT |
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09-27-26 victor
savo.. dt promised yet again the $5k if the gop wins..
bessent clapping.. what a douchebag.
yields even higher probably if the gop wins and dt makes good on this promise.
//
A 5000 Dollar Dividend to all adults if Republicans WIN! Dumocrats can’t do this!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117339693977416746
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