04-15-26 victor
pt, looks promising
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Ucrania asegura que ha tomado por primera vez una posición rusa empleando solo robots
La guerra del futuro hace tiempo que se libra en Ucrania
Desde el uso intensivo de los drones a la adopción de la IA: la contienda europea es escenario de avances tecnológicos que están redefiniendo el mundo bélico. La iniciativa innovadora la lleva Kyiv, fruto de su necesidad de compensar su inferioridad militar frente a Moscú, y ayer Volodímir Zelenski quiso presumir de ello: en un mensaje difundido en redes sociales, el presidente ucraniano anunció que, por primera vez, su ejército ha tomado una posición rusa empleando exclusivamente unidades robotizadas.
Según el mandatario, en la operación intervinieron “vehículos terrestres no tripulados y drones”, y los enemigos se rindieron sin necesidad de que ningún soldado ucraniano se desplegara en el lugar. |
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04-15-26 savo
carib.. in terms of new nominal... then they will discuss tenor and coupons.
NPV is a fiction as nobody knows the IRR that the market will put on veni when the new bonds are delivered.
In any case that is my guess... and given that I think veni will trade at 6% and the coupon to be in than region... i expect a doubling from here.
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04-15-26 pillz
Iran less likely to compromise in US talks as its isolation grows, analyst warns
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-892990 |
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04-15-26 pillz
Naval Blockade and the Second Phase of the War; Iran’s Economy Could Collapse Within 3 Months
https://themedialine.org/top-stories/naval-blockade-and-the-second-phase-of-the-war-irans-economy-could-collapse-within-3-months/ |
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04-15-26 pillz
| bought back putas of MSFT , EWY ,,, still holding short putas of ASML that will give their result at 7am Amsterdam time , and still holding a lot of of putas short in Belgium and Holland more longer term maturity , and of cause still short putas and calls on JNUG .... |
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04-15-26 pillz
| “It’s not about whether there is progress in the peace talks, it’s about whether we can reasonably hope that there might be progress in the peace talks,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers LLC. “Vibes are more powerful than reality.” |
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04-15-26 pillz
Removal of enriched uranium 'threshold condition' for ending Iran campaign, Katz says
The removal of enriched uranium from Iran is a "threshold condition" for Israel ending its campaign in Iran, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday during a Holocaust Remembrance Day statement.
"The enriched material could serve as a basis for an attempt to restart the nuclear project," said Katz, adding "the US and Israel defined the removal of the material from Iran as a threshold condition for ending the campaign." |
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04-14-26 carib
| current Veny prices are about 25% of claim.. |
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04-14-26 carib
50% haircut on total CLAIM in terms on new nominal, or in terms of new NPV?
Claims are between 210 and 155 depending on bonds.. |
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04-14-26 Merlino
"This piece by @ecuarauz and @michael_galant might be the best thing I've read about how sanctioning a country's central bank cripples the entire financial system. A blow-by-blow of the Venezuela case."
https://x.com/yarbatman/status/2041642150446682572
https://www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/producing-scarcity/ |
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04-14-26 Merlino
seems to be done...
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Good |
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04-14-26 savo
merlino.. seems to be done...
https://albertonews.com/principales/ultima-hora-ee-uu-suaviza-las-sanciones-contra-el-bcv-en-medio-de-la-crisis-economica-de-venezuela-segun-axios/ |
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04-14-26 savo
| pillz... my guess is 50% haircut on capital + accrued interest...so i am ok with the IMf around. |
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04-14-26 pillz
| imo, if IMF is in the game , it is not good for the blonds ... |
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04-14-26 panasonic
"lifting of sanctions on Veni Central Bank and simultaneous reconnection with the FM"
Already in the make. |
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04-14-26 Merlino
| Next important milestone in the regularization process could be lifting of sanctions on Veni Central Bank and simultaneous reconnection with the FMI.....They are working on it it seems |
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04-14-26 panasonic
Savo, they could probably be done privately, but my guess is that a holder of 30MM in bonds is not a small cookie easy to fool.
A buyer of 30MM size is still a small buyer.
Bid for a 100MM lot and price will be very different in my opinion.
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04-14-26 Merlino
is it low or do we only see part of it
......................
I am reasonably sure we only see a part of total trading as many times closing prices in my account do not exactly match a trade in FINRA |
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04-14-26 savo
pana.. i always wonder about volume.. is it low or do we only see part of it?
finra reports few trades... and usally of small size... do 10, 20, 30 mm trades get reported to Finra ? |
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04-14-26 carib
| Panas: true. Yet, that would be a reasonable strategy to facilitate debt management. |
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04-14-26 panasonic
Carib, going up in low volume, if one (decent size) buyer steps in would trigger a massive rally....imagine if Delcy gives green light to pay royalties with pdvsa bonds.
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04-14-26 carib
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04-14-26 carib
Mossad Director David Barnea on Tuesday proclaimed at the Holocaust ceremony that his spy agency will not rest until it facilitates the fall of the Islamic regime of Iran in favor of a freer and less violent country.
"Our mission is not yet complete. We did not think that our mission would be completed immediately with the fading of the battles, but rather we planned, and [really] we planned to continue, and this will be manifested even after the time of attacks on Tehran," said Barnea. |
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04-14-26 spal
change the global order.
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"Meet the new boss, same as the old boss"
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04-14-26 panasonic
"i.e. Honor among thieves ..."
Bombing Gulf States exposed "axis" project, they have no friends, only one target, change the global order.
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04-14-26 panasonic
This morning doubled down on SLV, Oil.
Rolled Semis (index) in smaller size.
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04-14-26 spal
The rally in the rail sector, and specifically in FreightCar America (RAIL), is driven by a unique convergence of geopolitical disruption, industrial recovery, and a structural shift in how the "Western Energy Fortress" moves goods.
As of April 14, 2026, the sector has become a primary "Security Trade" for investors. Here is the breakdown of why it is rallying, the strategic thesis, and the outlook for RAIL.
1. Why is Rail Rallying?
The rally is fueled by three primary "Garrison Economy" drivers:
The "Trucking-to-Rail" Pivot: With diesel prices surging above $5.00/gal due to the Middle East conflict, the fuel efficiency of rail (which is roughly 3-4 times more fuel-efficient than trucking) has made it the mandatory choice for shippers. Investors are pricing in a massive volume shift as trucking becomes prohibitively expensive.
U.S. Manufacturing Expansion: Domestic manufacturing is finally expanding (ISM PMI at 52.7% in March). The rail industry is seeing its third straight month of carload gains, led by record-level chemical and grain flows—the two sectors most impacted by the global chokepoint disruptions.
The "North Exit" Logistics: As Saudi oil and global grains are diverted through "North Exit" routes (Suez/land pipelines), the domestic infrastructure required to receive and redistribute these goods at U.S. and European ports is being strained. This has created a sudden, acute demand for new, specialized rolling stock.
2. Why is FreightCar America (RAIL) a Strategic Stock?
RAIL is no longer just a cyclical manufacturer; it is a "Pure Play" on the hardening of North American supply chains.
Manufacturing Agility: Unlike larger competitors, RAIL has a "lean and flexible" operating model based in Mexico, allowing them to pivot production rapidly. They are specifically targeting the tank car and aftermarket business, which are the two highest-demand segments in the 2026 "Garrisoned" energy market.
The "Backlog" Moat: As of late March, RAIL reported a backlog of ~1,900 units valued at over $137 million. In a world of scarcity, a firm backlog is a "Hard-Asset" guarantee.
Refinancing Strength: The company optimized its balance sheet in early 2026, lowering its debt costs just as the rail industry enters a high-growth cycle. This has removed the "Liquidity Risk" that previously suppressed the stock price.
3. Will the Rally Continue?
The rally has structural momentum, but it is becoming a "High-Beta" play:
The Bull Case: If the Middle East "Blockade" remains in place, the fuel-cost advantage of rail will only widen. Furthermore, the May 4, 2026, earnings release is expected to show the first full quarter of the "Conflict-Driven" demand surge.
The Bear Case: The stock has surged significantly (up 90% over the last year). A sudden de-escalation in the Iran conflict would lower diesel prices and could trigger a "Mean Reversion" profit-taking event.
The Recommendation: RAIL is a "Buy on Dips" for the long-term Americas Pivot. It is the "Hardware" provider for the New Regional Order. |
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04-14-26 spal
| i.e. Honor among thieves ... |
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04-14-26 spal
Revenue vs. Retaliation: The UAE’s northern ports rely heavily on transit and storage fees from the "Shadow Fleet." In 2026, with the Strait of Hormuz mostly closed, these fees have tripled. The UAE calculates that the U.S. will not impose secondary sanctions on major UAE ports (like Jebel Ali or Hamriyah) because doing so would crash the "White-List" global economy the U.S. is trying to protect.
The "Insurance" Double-Game: By allowing the Rich Starry to load in Hamriyah, the UAE acts as a pressure valve. If the UAE completely shut down these "Shadow" flows, Iran would likely escalate kinetic attacks on UAE infrastructure (like the desalination plants we discussed). The UAE uses these transits as a "peace offering" to Tehran: We allow your trade, so don't hit our cities. |
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04-14-26 spal
Substance Laundering: Methanol is one of Iran’s largest non-oil exports. Often, Iranian petrochemicals are shipped via small, "clean" dhows or barges to UAE ports like Hamriyah, where they are co-mingled or simply issued new certificates of origin (UAE-origin) before being loaded onto larger, sanctioned tankers like the Rich Starry. In this case, the cargo isn't "re-labeled crude"—it is likely laundered Iranian methanol.
The "Chemical" Cover: By declaring methanol rather than "crude," the vessel attempts to stay below the threshold of a kinetic U.S. naval interdiction. The U.S. blockade is primarily focused on crude oil revenue. Interdicting a chemical tanker carrying industrial feedstock is a higher "diplomatic friction" event than seizing a crude tanker, especially when the ship is Chinese-crewed. |
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04-14-26 spal
| The minor emirates are well know for smuggling etc., |
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04-14-26 spal
Rich Starry
It is a US sanctioned vessel - that loaded methanol in Fujairah ... this was almost certainly contraband brought over from Iran and blended and re-labelled as UAE material. |
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04-14-26 victor
The Chinese-owned oil and chemical tanker Rich Starry successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday despite a U.S. blockade,
The Rich Starry was the first vessel to cross the strait since the U.S. imposed its blockade on Monday. The ship was initially turned back on Monday but was successful on its second attempt to cross. |
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04-14-26 pillz
US President Donald Trump said Iran had been in touch on Monday and wanted to make a deal, but that he would not sanction any agreement allowing Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.
// ??????????????????????????,,,,,,,,,,
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-892908 |
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04-14-26 pillz
tries to open the Strait by closing it ...
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:-(((( sorry it must be :-))))))))) |
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04-14-26 spal
Stocks in the shipping and tanker industry posted broad gains Monday after the U.S. implemented a naval blockade of Iranian ports following the collapse of weekend peace negotiations, although results finished well off sharp early gains.
The day's gains continued the "disruption" trade in which negative news surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz rallies shipping stocks, while any momentum toward a resolution punishes them, TradeWinds.com noted.
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Well I don't make the rules ... |
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04-14-26 pillz
tries to open the Strait by closing it ...
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:-(((( |
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