03-19-26 panasonic
Ruspan, good read keep posting pls.
US fertilizer companies are flying btw. |
|
03-19-26 panasonic
Vic, great news for Sanchez, not so for Spain, with €200 monthly per child he will become even more popular, who ends with the final bill, Germany?
How long till Koran lessons are mandatory in schools 10 years? 20? |
|
03-19-26 ruspan
I´ll keep posting translations that I think might interest colores.
How will the world be affected by a war in the Middle East?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not only a blockade of oil and gas supplies; transit of virtually all merchant vessels, including container ships and bulk carriers, has now been disrupted.
Losses are significantly higher than previously estimated.
Upward price momentum is observed in many industrial metals, particularly aluminum, which reached its highest level since spring 2022.
▪️ Aluminum and Metallurgy. The region has become one of the largest aluminum producers in the world outside of China, using cheap gas for electrolysis:
• UAE (Emirates Global Aluminum/EGA) – 2.7 million tonnes/year, the 5th largest producer in the world and the largest outside of China.
• Bahrain (Alba) – 1.6 million tonnes/year, one of the world's largest aluminum smelters.
• Saudi Arabia (Maaden/Ras Al Khair) – 0.8–1 million tons/year.
• Qatar (Qatalum) – 0.6 million tons/year.
• Oman (Sohar Aluminum) – 0.4 million tons/year.
A total of approximately 5.5–6.5 million tons/year – 8–10% of global aluminum production. All of this volume is exported by sea, the vast majority through the Strait of Hormuz.
▪️Petrochemicals and Polymers. The Middle East is the largest net exporter of basic petrochemical products:
Total petrochemical exports from the region are estimated at ~$80–100 billion/year, which does NOT include petroleum products. Products include:
• Ethylene and polyethylene – packaging, pipes, films, medical devices.
• Polypropylene – automotive components, textiles, packaging.
• Ethylene glycol (MEG) – polyester production (textiles, PET bottles). Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter, accounting for ~30% of global MEG trade.
• Methanol – solvents, formaldehyde, fuel additives.
• Paraxylene – feedstock for polyester.
▪️Mineral fertilizers with significant fertilizer exports based on cheap gas:
• Urea (carbamide) – Qatar (~6 million tons/year), Saudi Arabia (SAFCO/Ma'aden, ~4–5 million tons/year), Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait. Together, the region exports ~15–20% of global urea trade.
• Ammonia – a key component in the production of all nitrogen fertilizers. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are major exporters.
• Phosphate Fertilizers – Saudi Arabia (Maaden/Waad Al Shamal) is increasing exports of phosphates and DAP.
▪️Electronic Components and Critical Materials.
🔘Helium – a critical component for lithography, growing silicon crystals for chips, cooling superconducting magnets, ion implantation, MRI scanners, quantum computers, and everything related to high-precision electronics.
Qatar produces helium at complexes integrated with Qatargas/RasGas LNG plants. Capacity is 65 million cubic meters. Actual production is ~45–55 million cubic meters per year, or almost a third of global production. All exports are shipped by sea through the Strait of Hormuz in liquid form (ISO containers, specialized tankers).
🔘Ultra-high-purity aluminum for special alloys in microelectronics (microwire for connecting chips to housings, metallization of conductive tracks on semiconductor wafers, etc.) and electrical engineering (high-quality capacitors, heat sinks for electronics).
Exact data is not published, but it likely accounts for 15-17% of the global share.
🔘Ethylene glycol (MEG) is a critical element in antifreeze for data center cooling, printed circuit board substrates, cable insulation, and polyester capacitors. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter of MEG. SABIC and its subsidiaries (SHARQ, Yanpet, SAFCO) produce ~5-6 million tons of MEG per year, exporting ~70-80% primarily to Asia.
Global MEG production is approximately 35 million tons per year, with Saudi Arabian exports accounting for approximately 15-17% of global trade.
🔘The world is heavily dependent on high-quality quartz sand for silicon wafers (chips) and solar panels, where the region is the world's largest exporter. The region also exports methanol (6-8% of global trade), high-quality polypropylene (8-10% of the global market), sulfur (20-25% of global trade), paraxylene (5-7% of trade) for microelectronics and electrical engineering, and titanium dioxide (6-7% of trade).
So, there are challenges: metallurgical products, agricultural raw materials, petrochemicals, critical materials, and raw materials for the semiconductor industry. |
|
03-19-26 victor
sanchez made a video of his fan mail.
has been receiving fan mail from all over the world.
//
BREAKING : Spanish 🇪🇸 PM Pedro Sánchez refused to bow down in front of Trump's warning
"My stand is clear, i can't support war and i am with people of Gaza & Iran. I am getting letters from across the world praising the stand of Spain" 🔥
He goes on to showing messages he got from the US and European countries. The world is recognizing his leadership. BRAVO 🫡
https://x.com/Amockx2022/status/2034390321275277546
|
|
03-19-26 victor
POLITICO
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s condemnation of the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran initially made him an outlier in Europe. Now everyone wants in.
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-takes-victory-lap-as-rest-of-the-eu-coalesces-around-pedro-sanchez-anti-war-position/
|
|
03-19-26 pillz
| https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd |
|
03-19-26 pillz
Gold prices rise but still pinned below $4,900/oz amid inflation, Iran uncertainty
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-rise-but-still-pinned-below-4900oz-amid-inflation-iran-uncertainty-4569720 |
|
03-19-26 pillz
| https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures |
|
03-19-26 victor
| Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
|
03-19-26 spal
EU at higher risk than USA
==
EU in deep shit. |
|
03-19-26 spal
The "Shared Reservoir" Suicide Pact
The most terrifying aspect for energy geologists is the Reservoir Integrity Risk.
Pressure Imbalances: The North Field and South Pars draw from the same geological pool. Violent, unplanned shutdowns on both sides simultaneously can cause pressure shocks within the reservoir, potentially damaging the wells themselves or leading to water infiltration that could permanently reduce the field's recoverable reserves.
Retaliation Loop: Iran has vowed to "completely destroy" Gulf energy infrastructure if further strikes hit South Pars. This is a scorched-earth energy policy where neither side is allowed to produce if the other is impaired.
Big, big problem in North Field/ South Pars ... |
|
03-19-26 savo
pana.. all europe has to do is U-turn with Russia as DT U-turned with Veni...and Russian oil and gas can restart flowing to Europe.
I am sure Carib can remind us of some Machiavelli quote about pragmatism...in Latin!
|
|
03-19-26 pillz
cooooll
//
Artificial intelligence drone software maker Swarmer Inc. surged 1,000% in two days, making it the best debut for a US stock in nearly a year. |
|
03-19-26 panasonic
Spal, 100% but as posted here NM had to be extracted as previous step before going after barbudos.
DT clearly said tdy, Hormuz puts EU at higher risk than USA, so they better act, but we need to understand that EU can't afford to piss islamists, huge mess. |
|
03-19-26 panasonic
Savo, that's my read as well, lower prices buys more stuff we intend to keep.
|
|
03-19-26 savo
| spal.. i imagine conversations are already underway... and close before an MCM/Haussman government. |
|
03-19-26 savo
|
03-19-26 savo
pana .. i am a continues buyer of precious metals with every coupon i received minus living expenses.
The more the market misreads gold and silver... the better. |
|
03-19-26 spal
| know ... should be now ... |
|
03-19-26 spal
| I think "ironically" maybe but the current Iran situation clearly helps further turn Vene around. I think now (an I was doubtful before) that a more favorable restructuring is coming. I know do not think that the US can risk pissing off at all potential follow-on investors. |
|
03-19-26 spal
|
03-19-26 panasonic
Savo, lower prices are good news, you can buy more kilos of gold ;-)
Tdy bought back SLV that sold at 100$, paid less than 70$. |
|
03-19-26 savo
pillz... gold at 4810$
because powell did not cut rates???
that means a higher interest bill for the US and a more costly refinancing of the existing debt... hence higher fiscal deficit... add that to an economy at war and gdp growing at Q4 25 1.4% annualized rate and that is very very good for gold...
let algos, CTAs and the cohort of ignorant day traders have their day... our day is coming too and it will be great. |
|
03-19-26 savo
and why would a veni firing on all cylinders trade at 11% exit???
think more 6 to 7%. |
|
03-19-26 panasonic
"Los de PDVSA también podrían subir hasta unos 50 centavos"
Exactly colores estimate one day after NM was extracted. |
|
03-18-26 amateur
Also, Brent is now 14 dollars over WTI.
DT might even become more civil to Mexico and Canada.
Another "bright" (chavist) policy to protect US masses could be to prohibit US oil exports. America first! |
|
03-18-26 amateur
| Powel showed Trump some teeth. So the expectation of a new liquidity flood are now frozen. Maybe the long term bond yields will have to jump first? |
|
03-18-26 carib
Morgan Stanley prevé fuerte repunte en los bonos de Venezuela y PDVSA ante posible reestructuración
Teniendo en cuenta un "rendimiento de salida" del 11%, los bonos soberanos valdrían unos 58 centavos por dólar de promedio, frente a los 45-46 centavos actuales.
Los de PDVSA también podrían subir hasta unos 50 centavos, sobre la base de un rendimiento de salida del 11.5%, desde los aproximadamente 34-35 centavos.
Reuters |
|
03-18-26 panasonic
| Vic, seems so, probably the fact that Delcy is wiping out the Maduro era. |
|
03-18-26 pillz
|
03-18-26 pillz
Powell said higher energy prices will push up overall inflation.
//
sooo, gold have nothing to do with inflation ... the $ is up 1.145 on the euro ;;; ??? |
|
03-18-26 victor
| pana, is that guy the reason vz bonds are up today? |
|
03-18-26 carib
| Gold declined for a sixth day, its longest losing streak since late 2024, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said higher energy prices will push up overall inflation. |
|
03-18-26 panasonic
GGL is sanctioned, served as director of Sebin, a record on human rights violations.
My guess, probably he is the man to send Diosdy to the showers. |
|
03-18-26 victor
any input on gustavo gonzalez lopez?
//
Delcy Rodríguez purga al ministro de Defensa de Venezuela, Vladímir Padrino, para congraciarse con Trump
Llevaba once años como uno de los hombres fuertes del régimen chavista y será sustituido por el general Gustavo González López, jefe de la seguridad presidencial |
|
03-18-26 victor
dt won't be happy
//
Fed meeting live updates: Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, forecasts 1 rate cut in 2026 |
|
03-18-26 ruspan
..."few figures in the establishment like Larijani who could translate battlefield realities into political strategy..."
Do they mean someone like Trump? :-)
Hegseth? :-)
|
|
03-18-26 carib
|
03-18-26 panasonic
| Pilly SLV has options three times a week, good for your biz. |
|
03-18-26 panasonic
| Finally Pdvsa got some attention, maybe winning baseball championship ;-) |
|
03-18-26 carib
Without gas, Iran will have blackouts.
without Kharg, the regime will be broke |
|
03-18-26 leopardo
Everything going up Carib
Vnz 31 52+ |
|
03-18-26 carib
The deeper challenge for Tehran is increasingly structural. A system built for endurance is being tested by attrition. As experienced officials are picked off in targeted killings, the pool of figures capable of managing both war and statecraft is shrinking.
Four senior Iranian officials said there were few figures in the establishment like Larijani who could translate battlefield realities into political strategy — a gap that could slow decision-making and coordination. (Reuters) |
|
03-18-26 carib
|
03-18-26 ruspan
Spal: "BREAKING: ISRAEL has struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the world’s largest natural gas field and a core pillar of Iran’s energy supply."
"Entering a more dangerous phase of the war as IRAN begins to directly target energy infrastructure.."
:-) |
|
03-18-26 carib
| https://www.finra.org/finra-data/fixed-income/trade-history?cusip=P7807HAP0&bondType=CA |
|
03-18-26 carib
| Savo: you can follow real time trades on trace.. |
|
03-18-26 carib
Donald Trump’s one-time pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics has said the US economy is too weak to handle oil at $100 per barrel as he warned of rising consumer prices triggered by the war in Iran.
“I don’t think this is an economy that is going to be able to handle $100 a barrel for oil, it’s just not,” EJ Antoni told the FT.
|
|
03-18-26 savo
where do you see that.. did you sell?
|
|
03-18-26 carib
|
03-18-26 carib
| Padrino replaced in Veny. |
|
03-18-26 spal
|
03-18-26 carib
| Does Iran have a Hirohito? |
|
03-18-26 savo
the reason to all this destruction was to remove the barbudos
the Barbudos are still there... |
|
03-18-26 spal
Entering a more dangerous phase of the war as Iran begins to directly target energy infrastructure
Hormuz stoppage is like a kinked garden hose—you can unkink it and flow will resume
Hitting infra is like taking a shotgun & blowing off the faucet to which that hose is attached |
|
03-18-26 spal
BREAKING: Israel has struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the world’s largest natural gas field and a core pillar of Iran’s energy supply.
The major escalation comes alongside reported impacts on other oil and petrochemical facilities in the Assaluyeh area of Bushehr province, according to multiple reports.
IRGC-linked Tasnim News issued an urgent warning urging people to immediately leave major oil and gas sites in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, saying they had become “direct and legitimate targets” that could be struck within hours. They listed:
➤ Samref Refinery — Saudi Arabia
➤ Al Hosn Gas Field — UAE
➤ Jubail Petrochemical Complex — Saudi Arabia
➤ Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex — Qatar
➤ Ras Laffan Refinery — Qatar
The report added: “Previously, clear and repeated warnings were given to your rulers about entering this dangerous path and gambling with the fate of their nations.” |
|
03-18-26 savo
leo.. odious debt... hunger bond...Original Issue Discount (OID)... etc..
i think it is all BS but who knows... the rep is 10% higher on average which is also questionable. |
|
03-18-26 leopardo
| Yes Carib buy recovery should be same same or am I missing something? |
|
03-18-26 spal
| "He shall stretch out upon it the line of confusion and the stones of emptiness". |
|
03-18-26 spal
|
03-18-26 spal
| Stopped out of gold schtuff |
|
03-18-26 carib
|
03-18-26 leopardo
| Trading 4\5 points below... |
|
03-18-26 leopardo
| Trading 4\5 points below... |
|
03-18-26 leopardo
Why pdvsa 6% 2022 should be treated differently from pdvsa 6 2024???
|
|
03-18-26 savo
jp
Despite the scale of the disruption—arguably one of the largest exogenous supply shocks in recent history—benchmark prices have remained relatively contained, with Brent trading near $100/bbl and WTI around $95 (Table 1). At face value, this could be interpreted as market complacency. A closer examination, however, suggests a misalignment between benchmark pricing and the geography of the disruption.
The key issue is that both Brent and WTI are Atlantic Basin benchmarks, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As such, these benchmarks are disproportionally influenced by regional fundamentals that remain comparatively loose. Both the US and Europe entered 2026 with comfortable commercial inventories, and the broader Atlantic Basin remains relatively well supplied in the near term. In addition, the anticipation—and soon a partial realization—of SPR releases has further dampened prompt tightness in both Brent- and WTI-linked markets.
By contrast, Middle Eastern benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman provide a more accurate reflection of the physical dislocation. Both Dubai and Oman cash prices are now trading around $155/bbl, highlighting the severity of the shortage in barrels originating from the Gulf (Figure 1). These benchmarks are directly exposed to export disruptions and therefore capture marginal scarcity more effectively than Atlantic-linked crudes.
Crucially, the geography of trade amplifies this dynamic. Most crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are bound for Asia, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea as the principal buyers. In total, Asia takes about 11.2 mbd of crude and 1.4 mbd of refined products that transit the Strait. As a result, the immediate physical shortfall is concentrated in Asian markets, where reliance on Gulf barrels is greatest. Early signs of demand destruction are emerging in Asia as product prices surge and spot barrels become prohibitively expensive.
Timing effects further reinforce this divergence. A typical voyage from the GCC to Asia takes approximately 10-15 days, while shipments to Europe require closer to 25-30 days via the Suez Canal, or even 35-45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows will hit Asian markets earlier and more acutely, whereas Atlantic basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI will remain cushioned for longer by inventory overhangs and slower supply adjustments.
In this context, the apparent stability in Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of ample global supply. It reflects a temporary buffer created by regional inventory overhangs, benchmark composition, and policy interventions. If the Strait does not reopen, this divergence is unlikely to persist: Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice higher as Atlantic basin inventories are drawn down and the global market is forced to clear at a materially tighter supply level.
|
|
03-18-26 carib
| PDVsa 24 trading above 36 |
|
03-18-26 carib
| Some Veny bonds trading above 50 |
|
03-18-26 carib
One less "barbudo".
The overnight assassination of Iran’s intelligence minister Esmaeil Khatib in a targeted Israeli strike in Tehran, confirmed on Wednesday morning by Defense Minister Israel Katz, was a strike at one of the Islamic Republic’s most opaque and important institutions that has helped keep the regime of oppression in place. |
|
03-18-26 carib
The US aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, deployed in operations against Iran, is expected to temporarily pull into port after a fire on board that reportedly took 30 hours to put out, US officials said on Tuesday, the 18th day of the war with Tehran.
The carrier, America's newest and the world's largest, is currently located in the Red Sea. It is expected to temporarily go to Souda Bay on the Greek island of Crete, the two officials said.
Fire started in laundry area. |
|
03-18-26 panasonic
| Savo, where should SLV stabilize in your opinion? Swings are not investable right now, perfect for meme trading indeed. |
|
03-18-26 savo
does not seem the barbudos are any close to giving up... according to trump there is nothing else to bomb...he can still bomb more schools i guess... so one should imagine that he will take his army back home having achieved nothing other than destroying infrastructure, provoking a bout of inflation and oil market dislocation.. the sooner the better.
|
|
03-18-26 panasonic
| Wtf happened to trillions invested in green energy?? |
|
03-18-26 panasonic
| Vic, true but finals are more fun. |
|
03-18-26 ruspan
Spal: "03-17-26 spal
20 million barrels per day, or approximately
===
I respectively disagree.
The world was in a c.4 million surplus before this started. And the Saudis can raise production right now by 3-4 million BOED with off take in the the Red Sea and delivery via Suez.
Also prices would have to be c.$190 per barrel to get close to the 1970's oil shock.
No the main pressure is on China and Asia and they will negotiate soon."
Of course, this is not my data and I am not an expert and spent very few time to look into the issue - but the guy is a very competent one, and I think his argument on this crisis, that it is just started to develop and most likely will get worse by the end of april is valid:
-The damage to the infrastructure is not finished, increases every day.
-We are running on the previously extracted and shipped oil plus the reserves right now
-There are few arguments for Iran to stop right now, whatever the Chinese might think about it.
|
|
03-18-26 victor
| pana, it was good, but the best game by far was vz-japan, in my op. |
|
03-18-26 panasonic
|
Board
