06-11-26 panasonic
| ECB hiked maybe that helped gold? |
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06-11-26 pillz
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06-11-26 pillz
Centerview Partners was in negotiations with Venezuela for a contract worth at least $150 million for its work as the sole financial adviser on the country’s debt restructuring.
The draft contract included a fee of 0.1% of the total debt if the restructuring proves successful, without a monetary cap, and a monthly retainer of $750,000, plus expenses.
Centerview disputed the figures, stating that the contract has not been finalized and the numbers speculated on vastly overstate the expected terms of Centerview’s engagement with the Republic of Venezuela.
Centerview, Venezuela Discussed $150 Million Fee for Debt Rework
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-11/centerview-venezuela-discussed-150-million-fee-for-debt-rework?srnd=phx-markets |
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06-11-26 savo
pana.. I simply invest in emerging market and HY bonds that pay interest and provide an occasional capital gain...that is all i really do.
I also have some gold, silver, gold miners and silver miners which I do not trade, just hold.
I have them for the very simple reason that gold and silver have behaved very well since fiat and the miners because they are printing money.
Yesterday cash was king... today gold and silver are king... and who knows tomorrow.. or in the next hour?
I think it is valuable that I have brought precious metals back into the conversation here...
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06-11-26 savo
carib.. i see precious metals as an asset class comparable to bonds, equities, real estate... etc...
not comparable with stock picking... somebody clever enough to spot the next Micron will do better than gold but also better than bondss and real estate and spx.
and definitively not comparable to creating a successful company.
in a world of stable fiat... one does not need to deflate... but we do not live in a world of stable fiat... irrespective of us paying our bills in fiat...and our bank accounts being denominated in fiat.
i think it has behaved as a good deflator...not on a day to day basis but over time...
Gold is good because it has unique properties... but i am very interested to hear about other deflators.
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06-11-26 spal
every single asset is subject to pump and dump.
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Which is why rental properties are a solid part of my portfolio. |
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06-11-26 carib
Example of a supposed "good idea" turning into a significant headache: in 2016-17, I thought that accumulating Veny bonds in the 20s could prove a "good idea", expecting a default, with a subsequent restructuring with good recovery, given size of oil reserves.
Wally was in fact right, and we should have all sold.
Trying to buy very large nominals below 10 cents during default and under sanctions was a "good idea" but difficult to implement.
Some vulture funds, still, managed to execute it.
Buying post sanctions proved a "good idea" only because Trump decided to kidnap Maduro, something that was not easy predicting.
Now the issue is: can recovery go up to 50% of claim relatively soon.. or is it better to get out @25% of claim and forget the issue?
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06-11-26 panasonic
Carib, yes that post was kind of not-carib strategy, reason why I asked.
Your last post sounds more like you ;-) |
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06-11-26 carib
| I understand, Panas.. but good ideas.. must be transformed into significant profits by investing significant money, with a several years horizon.. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
"plus one good idea every year"
That was my reply to yr above post.
Personally, I'm very lousy at doing that, me take profits too early.
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06-11-26 carib
To give practical examples..
1) buying Gold when it was just above 1.000 $.. was a good boring idea all the way to 5.000 $
2) buying PDVsa at the end of the sanction period, @10-15.. and selling it now @40-50.. was good idea
3) buy good semiconductor stocks when the AI frenzy started.. and selling now.. was a "good idea"
4) buying AMPX @1$ and selling it @24$ two years later was an excellent idea.. in hindsight, but difficult to anticipate. Just luck. |
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06-11-26 carib
PS: occasionally adding 3% to your total return, actually changes nothing in the long term.Frequently (every few years, not every few days) having good investment ideas that produce several million (fiat currency) profit.. actually makes a difference, in the end of the long period.
10X or 20X is very rare.. but actually tripling or quadrupling in two-three years is quite enough.
the 10x+ objective is "speculative". the good boring ideas are those where the target is tripling.. and one invests millions, not peanuts. |
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06-11-26 carib
| Panas: I invest in "speculative" assets money I do not need, after making sure my boring assets produce at least twice the amount I spend. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
Pilly for instance is doing volatility many times a year, Spal momentum trading, Savo probably selects an asset an puts substantial in it, me doing call spreads.
If your goal is to add 3% to total yearly return, probably you need to put 3% of you asset and @10X you reach target, right? |
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06-11-26 panasonic
Carib, true to some here, as me wrote if you can keep with the volatility (your case invest in one 10~20x idea once a year).
What percentage is your initial investment from your liquid assets in speculative ideas? |
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06-11-26 carib
Imagine Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, or Sergei Brin, investing their initial capital in gold ingots, rather than in creating Microsoft, Apple and Google.
How wealthy would they be now?
Rather poor, actually. |
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06-11-26 carib
| IN FIAT, not IF FIAT (typo) |
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06-11-26 carib
Savo: to be practical... what % of your yearly expenses do you settle in Gold? I guess close to 0%, and I suspect close to 100% you settle if fiat convertible currencies.
If you hold 100% gold, every year you have to sell some of it, or borrow in fiat currencies with gold as collateral, to settle your bills.
Gold appreciates on average long term, but short term it can move up and down significantly.
If I but one ton of gold, 20 years later I still have a ton of gold, and its purchasing power in terms of real assets (houses, cars, boats, paintings, filet mignon, chocolate chip cookies and what else) can go up or down.
If I invest the equivalent fiat of a ton of gold in a real business (technology, energy, construction, services or what else) and am very good at it, 20 years later the business is worth a large multiple of its initial cost, and every year delivers a fat dividend, if desired, that I can transform into houses, boats, filet mignon, champagne or what else I desire. |
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06-11-26 victor
No entity paying me or requiring payments from me settles or proposes to settle in gold.
:-)))
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06-11-26 carib
PS: the war started on feb 28th, not march 2.
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06-11-26 carib
Savo: Gold is a rare metal, still used for central bank reserves, for jewelry, as a "reserve of value" or as a speculative asset. In the past, it was currency.
No entity paying me or requiring payments from me settles or proposes to settle in gold.
Inflation is the additional cost I have to pay for the same goods
I bought earlier, and I consider I am making profits if the value of my assets, in the currencies in which I spend, increases over time, after discounting inflation.
I know of no more practical way to account.
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06-11-26 savo
earth to carib...! earth to carib....!
gold is not an asset like any asset... gold is a monetary metal.. what the world considered cash since the beginning of time until a crook called nixon and his cabinet of crooks decided to take the US out of the gold standard.
The fact that there is a price of gold in fiat currency and that price can change due to supply and demand does not change the fact that gold is a better denominator than cash...
Cash lost 99% of its value since fiat... gold went up 100 times...so one went down from 100 to 1 the other from 1 to 100.
This Iran war was fabricated in order to know down the price of gold... that was the main objective.
The country that provides the reserve currency and needs to refinance 10 trn per year can not have the rest of the world dumnping the dollar and USTsat the rate in which they were doing it in 2025 and jan and feb 2026... so they activated the usual plan in this circumstance... invent a war which they launched on march 2. |
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06-11-26 carib
Daily Trump:
“At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America,”
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06-11-26 carib
| Panas: IMHO we just need assets that keep up with inflation.. plus one good idea every year.the good idea is an asset that produces substantial profits year after year.. or a stock that goes up 10X or 20X once. |
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06-11-26 panasonic
With all eyes on every asset via trillions in options, 2x 3x etfs, prediction markets Kalshi Malshi...every single asset is subject to pump and dump.
Even interest rates are a meme Fomo Yolo.
You will find 30 solid articles supporting the pump,
"Inflation will eat our assets" is the core story for staying exposed to bubbles.
If you are able to keep up with rotations at light speeds great, otherwise a 6~7% should do the trick for us colores, by accepting Inflation will eat part of our assets. |
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06-11-26 carib
Precisely: gold is an asset, like any other, not a metering device.
the meter is cash, and it is easily adjusted to inflation, if inflation is measured more or less correctly.Normally, holding short term government bonds covers most of the inflation degradation of the meter.
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06-11-26 savo
Only when it goes up
like every other asset! |
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06-11-26 pillz
Russell 2000: +14.3% YTD
S&P Mid Cap 400: +11.2% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: +8.3% YTD
S&P 500: +6.2% YTD
DJIA: +3.9% YTD |
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06-11-26 spal
is it no more gold is king ? :-))
Only when it goes up ...
LOL
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06-11-26 pillz
Cash is king?
//
is it no more gold is king ? :-)) |
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06-10-26 spal
| went to 20% cash ... just in case |
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06-10-26 panasonic
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06-10-26 carib
US President Donald Trump treats negotiations with Iran “like a bazaar,” former head of the Mossad’s counterterrorism division Oded Ailam said during an interview with 103FM on Monday morning.
“It’s hard to summarize, we are only in a pause. We have not finished anything, just as we have not finished anything in any arena, and we need to admit the truth. There are extraordinary military achievements in all arenas that are not really being translated into diplomatic achievements,” he said.
“One of the main reasons is a capricious president named Trump, who is negotiating in the Iranian bazaar. More or less, he comes in the morning to his stall, puts up a sign that says, ‘By the end of the day, I need to sell all the merchandise,’ and expects prices to go down. |
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06-10-26 spal
Active Disinformation & The "Project Freedom" Cover Story
The operation wasn't just hidden electronically; it was hidden behind a coordinated media blackout.
In early May, the administration publicly launched a highly visible vessel-escort operation called Project Freedom, only to loudly announce they were scrapping it after just 24 hours under the guise of "de-escalation."
Later in May, when leaked maritime rumors suggested the Navy was back in the strait, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued explicit, formal denials, stating that reports of the Navy "escorting or assisting commercial vessels" were entirely false.
This created a perfect double-blind: the public tracking community assumed the waterway was a dormant, high-risk no-go zone, while the military was quietly utilizing that exact lack of scrutiny to run the convoys.
Moving 100 million barrels requires significant tonnage—roughly 50 to 60 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) or over 100 Suezmax tankers. The operation heavily utilized vessels already accustomed to operating off the grid, including elements of the global "shadow fleet" (such as the recently struck Settebello). These vessels are structurally optimized to spoof AIS data, alter digital manifests, and transfer cargo via dark ship-to-ship (STS) maneuvers outside standard regulatory frameworks. |
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06-10-26 victor
| Last month, I directed our Great U.S. Military to execute a secret mission to support Oil Tankers and other Commercial Ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Today, I am pleased to announce that this effort has resulted in more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil making its way through the Strait, and into the Open Market. More than 200 Commercial Ships have safely traveled through the Strait. This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran. Their military is defeated, and their economy is lost. It’s over for Iran! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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06-10-26 spal
| PPIH go shredded about 20% yesterday. I held. It looks like a temper tantrum on a microcap. They failed to meet guidance on earnings (but this was due to buildout expenses - not margins). There is also (expected) delays with Middle East contracts. Nonetheless nothing was cancelled and in fact backlog increased. They have reiterated guidance. |
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06-10-26 spal
Total capitulation
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Not sure ... normally it is nastier |
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06-10-26 panasonic
| Savi, usually a good indicator to add calls ;-) |
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06-10-26 victor
| Iran’s Military is a complete and total mess. Much of it, like their Navy and Air Force, doesn’t even exist anymore - They have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!! They’ve taken too long to negotiate a deal that would have been great for them, now they will have to pay the price!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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06-10-26 savo
user avatar
Oliver Groß
@minenergybiz
Gold: COMEX OPEN INTEREST also shows capitulation 👇
https://x.com/minenergybiz/status/2064322377840746575 |
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06-10-26 savo
Oliver Groß
@minenergybiz
The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index drops to zero. Yes, you read that correctly. Historical 👀🔥
Total capitulation.
https://x.com/minenergybiz/status/2064398968897892751 |
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