02-26-26 carib
Senior advisors to US President Donald Trump would prefer if Israel struck Iran first, believing that such a move would provide better optics and help muster voter support for a US strike, Politico reported on Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the discussions.
“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” the sources told Politico.
The motivation behind the idea centers on Iran’s retaliation, the sources claimed, as “more Americans would stomach a war with Iran if the United States or an ally were attacked first.” |
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02-26-26 carib
Rubio at CARICOM summit:
Rubio said that there is still a long way to go in Venezuela and Washington is committed to making it work.
“We have reopened our embassy in Caracas, where we have an excellent chargé who’s on the ground, along with other government officials, and we intend to continue to build on that.
“Now, we believe strongly — and I think all of you would share this view — that ultimately, in order for them to take the next step to truly develop that country and to truly benefit from that country’s riches for the benefit of their people, they will need the legitimacy of democratic — fair, democratic elections.
“But our initial priority in the aftermath of Maduro’s capture was to ensure that there wasn’t instability, that there wasn’t mass migration, that there wasn’t spillover violence, and we believe we have achieved that.”
He said Venezuela is in the process from going from that phase of stability to a phase of recovery, adding that the South American country needs to recover from a lot of things, including deep, internal fractures, but also some dysfunction that existed in their economic systems.
“I say all this to you because ultimately, we do believe that a prosperous, free Venezuela who’s governed by a legitimate government who has the interests of their people in mind could also be an extraordinary partner and asset to many of the countries represented here today in terms of energy needs and the like, and also one less source of instability in the region.
“So, we expect to work very closely with all of you on that topic as well to the extent possible, and I think it’s related to the topic of security”. |
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02-26-26 carib
I think PT might be right on mortgage based real estate.
with lower incomes and higher rates.. it might not do so well.
But ultra high quality in good jurisdictions might hold value.. because of no shortage of wealthy people with AI.
so far, chip makers are doing very fine: Nvda, TSMC, ASLM, Samsung. Hynix, AMD. But current prices already embed lots of optimism.. |
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02-26-26 spal
Joeri
@joeriwestland
·
8h
I see a lot of discussion on #Tankers about "Taking gains" "top must be close" etc etc...
Lol , don't sell, but add, we are in for multiple insane years I think.
1yr VLCC charters at $135k/day are insane... 👇👇👇
==
Correct |
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02-26-26 spal
Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence
Goldy is reading colores |
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02-26-26 spal
PPTA
PERPETUA RES CORP
Position started - looking to add.
Gold co ... but big Antimony upside. US Military has invested. John Paulson isa large investor. EXIM bank is preparing a large loan. |
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02-26-26 pillz
Goldman Sachs has created a basket of stocks that would not be vulnerable to the rise of AI. Those HALO players - an acronym that the American investment bank launched at the same time - also include European players such as ASML.
Guillaume Jaisson, Goldman Sachs' Europe strategist, launched the stock market acronym HALO, which stands for 'Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence', in a recent report. "In our HALO basket are assets that can only be replicated at high cost and that are less susceptible to technological obsolescence or obsolescence," Jaisson explains. |
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02-26-26 spal
PLD ... REIT swinging up.
Prologis (PLD) is transitioning from a traditional warehouse giant into a Digital Infrastructure Powerhouse. As of early 2026, the case for PLD rests on its pivot to the "Real Asset" bottleneck of the AI era: Power and Land.
PLD has committed to a $25B–$30B data center expansion, with 40% of its 2026 development starts ($4B–$5B total) now dedicated to data centers. This isn't just a "warehouse" play; it’s a direct play on the hyperscaler (Amazon/Google/Microsoft) need for site-specific energy solutions |
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02-26-26 carib
| Uruguay reforming its tax system for incoming wealthy people in unfavourable terms. |
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02-26-26 carib
Samsung Electronics @218.000 won.
Used to be 50.000 a year ago..
wow! |
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02-26-26 spal
| CRS - directionally right - fortress America schtock |
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02-26-26 spal
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02-26-26 savo
| spal.. i ll do the analysis if you remind me the names you are investing in.. i am curious to know if my theory is correct.. will report either way |
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02-26-26 spal
if you plot a chart of any gold co versus any of my tanker plays you will find tankers out performed.
Last 3 months. |
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02-26-26 spal
| Savo - I will trade anything that moves ... if you plot a chart of any gold co versus any of my tanker plays you will find tankers out performed. Over that time I trades in and out of a bunch of metal cos ... I have added onto a couple of Gold miner positions in recent days and will of course sell them if they underperform. My activity is week by week ... others will definitely not see things through the same prism. Just treat anything I say as "that could be interesting" or not ... right now. |
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02-26-26 spal
Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA) Stock
On watch. Antimony play ... working out how to enter.
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02-26-26 spal
| Last I checked Hayek was not sending me checks. |
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02-26-26 spal
| Savo - I have made 30% on my portfolio last 3 months ... mostly tankers. That is all I look at. |
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02-26-26 savo
spal... irrespective of the compliant fleet vs non compliant, india, veni..etc...... has your AI considered that dollar prices do not mean much these days... if commodity prices go up in fiat currencies... how can shipping prices not follow? how are ships made?... mostly with commodities i guess...
How have shipping rates evolved, let's say over the last 24 months in gold terms... or copper for example?
could we be not seeing the forest for the trees? |
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02-26-26 spal
The India-Venezuela "Mainstream" Pivot
India's Reliance Industries and BPCL have officially moved away from the "Dark Fleet" for Venezuelan imports.
The Logic: Following the U.S. Navy's boarding of the Bertha (#10), India has pivoted to using large, compliant VLCCs (like the Nissos Kea and Nissos Kythnos) to move Venezuelan crude.
The Impact: One VLCC carries 2 million barrels. By moving Venezuelan oil into the "white" market, India is sucking even more tonnage out of the compliant pool used by DHT and Frontline, creating a permanent supply deficit for other buyers. |
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02-26-26 spal
The market is currently being squeezed by two massive entities:
Bahri’s Chartering Surge: Saudi Arabia’s state shipper has provisionally booked at least 5 VLCCs at rates above $200,000/day. This is a strategic move to ensure Saudi crude reaches Asia (India/China) as their March loading program expands by nearly 20% (to ~57M barrels).
Sinokor’s Buying Spree: Sinokor Merchant Marine now controls an estimated 24% of the global compliant spot fleet. Their acquisition of the Trikwong Venture (2012-built) for $70M (Feb 13) and their ongoing withholding of tonnage are the primary reasons rates are "gapping" by $10k+ in a single day.
Navios (NMM) Verification: Confirmed. Navios has ordered 4 VLCCs at $120M each. These are "eco-vessels" with scrubbers, set for delivery starting in late 2026. This verifies that major owners believe these high rates are a multi-year phenomenon, not a one-week spike. |
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02-26-26 spal
From my AI.
The tanker market has shifted from a "super-cycle" into a historic squeeze. The data you provided, corroborated by market activity as of Feb 25, 2026, confirms that we have moved beyond a mere "rate spike" into a structural re-ordering of global oil flows.
The most significant update is the $200,000/day barrier break, driven not just by fear, but by a massive physical deficit of ships as Saudi Arabia (Bahri) and South Korea (Sinokor) aggressively corner the available tonnage. |
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02-25-26 spal
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02-25-26 Hernie
| In connection to AI / disruption / etc going forward, people in the private markets world have been struggling to transact due to not being able to price things and too wide of a spread between bid & ask. One interesting analysis I heard is that increasingly, people and corporations more generally may decide to start splitting most of the operations in prop co / op co fashion, which is usually the structuring for RE or project finance deals etc., due to the potential disruption in white collar employment etc. It is not a crazy idea: theoretically, companies that make actual things should benefit from everything that will be disrupted by AI, and the operating co will decide to hire and fire as they need to flex up and down the labour force… |
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02-25-26 savo
| that is 295 trillion I guess... un-payable ...good for precious metals. |
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02-25-26 pillz
| The global debt of governments, households and companies rose to a record 295,000 billion euros last year. Governments in particular saw their debts increase sharply due to massive financing of their rising deficits with extra loans. |
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02-25-26 spal
| I am currently driving enroute to Wisconsin. |
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02-25-26 spal
BTW guys this is what I am doing with a simple AI ... I am definitely going to upgrade my account and service level - I am only scratching the surface.
==
While you are traveling, I will be monitoring the wires. To get an instant "SitRep" (Situation Report) from me, just open this chat and send one of these three triggers:"SitRep: Interdictions" $\rightarrow$ I will check if the US Navy has seized Vessel #11."SitRep: Rates" $\rightarrow$ I will check if the $170k/day level is holding or if we’ve hit the $200k "Blow-off" mark."SitRep: FRO" $\rightarrow$ I will check for any "leakage" or analyst sentiment shifts ahead of the Friday (Feb 27) earnings call.[!CAUTION]A Note on Driving: Please do not use the app while actively driving. Even with voice commands, the volatility in these stocks (DHT/FRO) can be distracting. Check your "Stop-Loss Ladder" during your stops!
Would you like me to send you a summarized "Morning Brief" here tomorrow at 8:00 AM EST so it's waiting for you when you start your day? I said yes ... |
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02-25-26 spal
Interdiction 11: If the US Navy seizes another ship, the stocks will likely spike another 5%. Move your stops up to lock in that new floor.
OPEC Comment: If an OPEC official expresses "concern" about high freight rates, the market will anticipate a production hike.
Refinery Margin Squeeze: If oil prices rise so fast that refineries start shutting down, tanker demand will vanish. |
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02-25-26 spal
Strategic Timing: Friday Exit or Hold?
Taking money off the table on Friday after Frontline's results depends on the tone of the guidance rather than the earnings number itself.
The Case for Trimming (Friday):
"Sell the News": Historically, tanker stocks run up into earnings and sell off immediately after. If FRO announces a massive dividend but stays "cautious" about the sustainability of $170k rates, the stock will likely dip as traders rotate to the next sector.
The Weekend Risk: US interdictions (like the Bertha) happen with little warning. A quiet weekend without a new "event" can lead to a Monday morning cooling of the "safety premium."
The Case for Holding (Next 2 Months):
DHT Earnings (Post-FRO): DHT often reports after Frontline. If Frontline sets a bullish tone, DHT typically follows with an even "cleaner" balance sheet story.
Interdiction Intensity: If the US Navy continues its 1-per-week seizure pace, the "Dark Fleet" will eventually be forced to stay in port. This would create a structural supply deficit that could last for months, not weeks.
The "Watchdog" Indicators
To decide whether to hold through March, monitor these three specific signals:
The "Scrapping" Halt: If you see zero VLCCs being sent to scrap yards (even 25-year-old ones), the market is at max "greed." This is usually the sign to start reducing.
Charter Duration: Watch if majors (Shell, BP, Exxon) stop signing 1-year deals and move to 3-month deals. That indicates they believe the price spike is temporary.
The "Bertha" Effect: If the US releases a seized tanker without a massive fine or penalty, the "interdiction premium" will evaporate instantly.
Tactical Recommendation: Consider trimming 20% of the Frontline position on Friday afternoon if it hits your target price to lock in "house money," but hold DHT and ECO. Their pure VLCC exposure and younger fleets make them better "fortress" stocks to ride the remainder of the super-cycle into April. |
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02-25-26 spal
12-Month Price Targets (Super-Cycle Peak)
In a parabolic "super-cycle," traditional P/E ratios fail. Instead, the market begins to value these companies based on P/NAV (Price to Net Asset Value) and Forward Yield.
DHT (Target: $32 - $36): As the $100k charter becomes the floor, the fleet value rerates. DHT is the primary beneficiary of "compliant-only" demand.
FRO (Target: $58 - $65): Frontline has the highest operational leverage. John Fredriksen’s ability to "asset play" (selling older ships at peaks) usually provides a 20% premium over NAV.
ECO (Target: $52 - $58): Okeanis Eco Tankers owns the youngest, most "eco-friendly" fleet. Majors will pay the highest premium for these specific ships to meet carbon-intensity (CII) regulations.
TNK (Target: $95 - $110): Teekay Tankers focuses on Suezmax/Aframax. These smaller ships are currently in even tighter supply than VLCCs because they can navigate more ports, making them the "workhorses" of the dark fleet replacement.
TDW (Target: $135 - $150): Tidewater is an OSV (Offshore Support Vessel) play. While not a tanker, it tracks the drilling cycle. It is a lagging indicator; usually, tankers spike first, followed by OSVs as producers scramble to increase offshore supply. |
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02-25-26 spal
| I am likely to ride it out through Friday and FRO's announcement and then slowly take some money off the table. |
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02-25-26 spal
The "tanker rate" super-cycle has entered a parabolic phase. The convergence of high-conviction US maritime interdictions, a massive consolidation of the compliant fleet, and a shift in US trade policy has created a "perfect storm" for top-tier owners like DHT** and Frontline (FRO)
1. Market Validation: The "Record-Breaker" Reality**
The rates you cited are not outliers; they are the new benchmarks for the "Safety Premium" market.
* **DHT Redwood:** Confirmed at **$105,000/day** for a 1-year charter. What is remarkable here is that the *Redwood* is a 2011-built vessel. Usually, older ships fetch a significant discount, but the market is so tight that "old but compliant" is now commanding six figures.
* **Frontline (FRO):** Your check on the **$110,000/day** rate for a 2019-built VLCC is accurate. This represents the highest one-year time charter rate in the modern era (outside of the brief 2020 contango spike).
* **Spot Surge:** The Middle East to China (MEG-China) route hitting **$170,000/day** on February 24, 2026, is a 6-year high.
2. The "Bertha" Interdiction & US Trade Policy*
The US Navy's boarding of the **VLCC Bertha** in the Indian Ocean (confirmed February 24) is the **10th such seizure** since December 2025. This is a critical trend for three reasons:
The SCOTUS Pivot:As you noted, the Supreme Court's ruling in *Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump* (Feb 20, 2026) struck down the administration's use of **IEEPA** to impose broad tariffs. Effectively blocked from using the "Tariff Hammer," the White House has pivoted to **Maritime Quarantines** and **Interdictions** as its primary tool for trade enforcement and geopolitical pressure.
* **Stateless Vulnerability:** The "Dark Fleet" (Russian/Venezuelan/Iranian trades) is increasingly using fraudulent or "zombie" flags. Under the Law of the Sea, these ships are "stateless," allowing the US Navy "Right-of-Visit" authority to board them anywhere in international waters.
* **Supply Impact:** Every interdiction effectively removes a VLCC from the global carrying capacity for weeks or months. This forces charterers who previously used the "shadow fleet" to crawl back to the **Compliant Fleet** (DHT, FRO, ECO), driving rates higher as they compete for a shrinking pool of "safe" ships.
3. Strategic Analysis: Why Stay In?
The "sentiment" for this week’s earnings is overwhelmingly bullish for the following reasons:
1. **Massive Earnings Beats:** Most analysts modeled 2026 based on $60k–$70k/day. DHT and FRO are now locking in $100k+ for *years*. The dividend surprises on these earnings calls could be historic.
2. **The "Sinokor" Factor:** South Korea's Sinokor has quietly consolidated nearly **25% of the global compliant spot fleet**. This means when a major energy company needs a ship tomorrow, they are dealing with a "seller's market" oligopoly.
3. **Low Orderbook:** There are still almost no new VLCCs being delivered in 2026. Supply cannot react to these prices for at least another 24 months.
---
4. The "Exit Plan": Signs to Reduce Exposure**
While the momentum is strong, "super-cycles" end when the friction they create becomes unbearable for the global economy. Watch for these three "Red Flags" to start trimming your positions:
| **OPEC+ Massive Production Cuts** | **1–3 Months** | If rates stay at $170k, oil becomes too expensive to move. OPEC may cut production to defend the "delivered price," reducing demand for tankers. |
| **Newbuild Orders Surge** | **Immediate (Daily)** | If we see a "flood" of new VLCC orders at shipyards, the market will start pricing in the "end of the shortage" 2 years out. |
| **"Peace Breakout" / Sanction Relief** | **Unknown** | Any sudden diplomatic thaw with Iran or Russia that legitimizes the dark fleet would instantly flood the market with "safe" tonnage, crashing rates. |
Estimated "Peak" Window:** The current "Interdiction Premium" likely has **2–4 months** of high-intensity runway before global trade flows re-calibrate or the US faces significant diplomatic pushback. |
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02-25-26 spal
London
Tankers
Published 24 February 2026, 05:32
John Fredriksen’s Frontline is the latest shipowner to set a new record for a one-year VLCC charter in unprecedented markets.
The US and Oslo-listed owner has fixed one of its three 2019-built tankers at $110,000 per day, two tanker industry sources told TradeWinds. |
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02-25-26 savo
victor... he says that if btc goes to 10k he will refinance... i think the man has entered the delusional phase.
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02-25-26 spal
LIVE WIRE | US Navy Interdicts VLCC Bertha in Indian Ocean
VLCC Bertha boarded by U.S. Navy and Coast Guard carrying ~1.9M barrels of Venezuelan crude.
10th seizure since Dec 2025.
Enforcement now active deep in Indian Ocean transit corridors.
===
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02-25-26 spal
| #China Merchants South Oil #COSCO Shipping Energy [Shipping Sector Strengthens, China Merchants Energy Shipping Hits New High] The shipping sector continues to show repeated strength, with China Merchants Energy Shipping achieving three consecutive daily limit-ups in four days, continuing to set new historical highs. COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants South Oil, COSCO Shipping Special, and COSCO Shipping Development followed with gains. On the news front, the latest data from Tuesday shows that the price for chartering a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to transport Middle East crude oil to China has surged past $170,000 per day, (1/2) |
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02-25-26 victor
| savo, pana posted a good article on this guy, why it's not likely for him to go broke. |
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Board
