07-20-26 savo
These are the most significant macro factors facing the precious metals markets for the rest of July:
1. The Hong Kong gold clearing exchange goes fully operational July 24, 2026. It plans to build up their gold reserves to 2,000 tons of gold over the next 3 years. Their current supply is 200 tons, so they will increase their vaults by 600 tons per year, or 16% of the yearly mined gold supply. They are also restricting paper trading and will push their investors to physical. This will give China pricing power over gold.
2. India’s MCX has 17 days of silver supply left factoring in the last 5 days of withdrawals per @pmbug reports. India’s silver supply has dwindled since May import restrictions began. These restrictions coincided with the drain from the Comex stopping and reversing. Allowing the Comex to rebuild their registered supply of silver from an April-May low of ~75m oz to 95m oz today.
3. U.S. Trade Ambassador Greer is traveling to Mexico on July 21, 2026 to have a 3 day negotiation from July 22-24 regarding the USMCA. Critical minerals have not been mentioned as a topic of these negotiations. I suspect for national security reasons, and because us twitter heads blow it up as news so efficiently, critical minerals as a topic must remain confidential. Mexico is the largest silver producer in the world, and it would make sense that metals production, refining, and critical mineral trade would be a topic of conversation. The price floors topic from earlier this year have not been mentioned in the press release either. Again, because i think for national security purposes it must remain confidential to prevent front-running at this point in the process.
To summarize what i think of these July developments, i remain bullish on silver. I am thinking about how the Indians restarting silver imports could create a problem for the Comex again. The bankers managed to smash the price of silver to the mid $50’s. So when the indians start buying again with all the pent up demand, they will be taking huge volumes of silver at a discount. The registered silver supply stands at $4b worth. One large buyer could take every oz they have. I think for national security purposes, to prevent india from draining the comex again, a price floor could be set to allow a force majeure to be declared, to revalue the price of silver and bailout the bankers and sell to the indians and other countries at a higher price. One where the natural supply and demand are balanced.
The other scenario, is that now that the price of silver is so cheap, i wonder if there may be a huge short covering rally, squeezing the price of silver. Because we all know that the paper to physical ratio of silver is over 300:1. These prices are too good to ignore. Bankers should start considering covering all of their shorts at the historical $50 breakout level for silver.
https://x.com/MBAeconomics1/status/2078486960323043360 |
|
07-20-26 savo
gold at 4000$ ... what will be it next , above ore under 4000$ ??
as long as the war lasts... i think the US will continue keeping gold repressed... can't have gold at 20k while at war ...
But the Chinese are moving... On July 24th they are launching the first physical gold exchange... whith real gold in the vaults... no more margin... but 100% physical... whoever sells has to have gold to deliver... whoever buys receives real gold.
And the scheme has two legs... one in China for chinese ..one in Hong King for foreigners.
If this works... we will finally know what is the real price or real physical gold... not the price of paper gold. And if the price of real physical gold is above the manipulated price of paper gold... real gold will flow east and western vaults will be emptied. |
|
07-20-26 spal
KOSPI Plunges 5.1%, Marking Sharp Decline in Seoul Shares.
===
Whoops |
|
07-20-26 spal
Like the UN: given veto powers, it can only enforce decisions on small powers with no big power protector.
Very limited scope for action, compensated by tons of words and large bureaucracy, sadly.
===
Well put. And the way of this world. |
|
07-20-26 carib
| Savo: point is.. JD and his boss .. ARE the US government. |
|
07-20-26 victor
U.S. Central Command
CENTCOM began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran at 7 p.m. ET today for the ninth consecutive night. The strikes will continue degrading Iranian military capabilities used to attack commercial vessels and civilian mariners transiting the Strait of Hormuz. |
|
07-20-26 pillz
| still playing ASML Holding on the upside and downside , it is already 4 months in this play and I have made big $ .... |
|
07-20-26 pillz
| gold at 4000$ ... what will be it next , above ore under 4000$ ?? |
|
07-19-26 savo
| happy to hear JD say out loud what everybody know.... that the US government is an Israeli branch. |
|
07-19-26 carib
On Wednesday’s episode of The Joe Rogan Experience – recorded for an audience of more than 11 million people – the vice president of the United States said he knows “beyond a shadow of a doubt” that people “within” Israel’s government are secretly manipulating American public opinion to keep the United States at war with Iran indefinitely, “not toward any objective, but just indefinitely.”
He described a “discreet, extremely well-funded campaign” to derail his Iran negotiations, citing anonymous social media activity and unnamed reporters’ leaks as his evidence.
Any comment from the White House? |
|
07-19-26 carib
US President Donald Trump is leaning toward further escalation with Iran, according to statements by several Israeli and American officials on Sunday.
"It appears President Trump is preparing to expand the campaign against Iran," one official told The Jerusalem Post. "The remaining questions are 'how much' and 'when.' He understands that, barring an unexpected development, the chances of a diplomatic solution is now virtually nonexistent."
Facts eventually prevail on fantasies, I guess. |
|
07-19-26 carib
Mao had about 20 million innocent civilians killed, one way or the other. Putin had thousands killed in Ukraine, besides ordering the assassination of opponents at home and abroad, etc etc.
The iranian regime murdered its own subject "en masse" besides supporting terrorism abroad. North korea ... etc etc.
Having anything close to a "fair trial" implies "technicalities" such an accepted jurisdiction, and accepted and fair legal basis for judgement, and the respect for "legal technicalities".
|
|
07-19-26 savo
carib.. irrespective of the technicalities of which obviously i do not know anything... i do not think there is any book in which butchering 70,000 innocent civilians is not a war crime...
but apparently the Satanist States and Jews abroad think otherwise. |
|
07-19-26 carib
Point is: can the ICC only judge losers, like Nuremberg, or should it have real global jurisdiction?
authoritarian/dictatorial regimes do not submit to the ICC, and neither do the USA and Israel, meaning what remains, very sadly, is a court for losers and suckers.
Like the UN: given veto powers, it can only enforce decisions on small powers with no big power protector.
Very limited scope for action, compensated by tons of words and large bureaucracy, sadly. |
|
07-19-26 carib
Savo: not an obsession. Putin has been indicted, that is the point.
|
|
07-19-26 savo
cac... fwiw.. i think the ICC is a proper impartial court.
|
|
07-19-26 CAC
| cannot imagine anyone submitting to a court whose jurisdiction is not recognized by your country, simply to satisfy those who hate you |
|
07-19-26 savo
carib.. i do not understand your obsession with Putin... but yes anybody that commits war crimes should be take the trip... starting with every US president.
|
|
07-19-26 carib
Savo: the same can be stated for Putin, and was indeed.
Do you expect Vladimir to take the Den Haag trip?
I agree that was the whole idea for the ICC.
and that is why countries seeking to remain "legibus soluti" do not recognise ICC jurisdiction. |
|
07-19-26 savo
carib.. that is the whole point of the ICC... to remove the process from the internal political arena which can be influenced.
Leveling a country... killing thousands of innocent people and destroying vital infrastructure is not a political decision and can not be treated politically...
It is a matter for a criminal court... whether Israel submits or not to the ICC, the butcher from Jerusalem can present his case and stand trial...
If he is innocent he has nothing to fear. |
|
07-19-26 carib
Savo: neither the USA nor Israel (or Russia) opted for submitting to the jurisdiction of the ICC. Motives are self-evident.
But if Likud loses power by november, there will be a knesset commission on Oct 7.. and israeli courts have jurisdiction on Bibi.
Political decisions taken by elected leaders, in the liberal order, require first of all a political judgement by the electorate itself.
I suppose a significant % of Israelis disagree with Bibi's political choices, but there is no likely majority in Israel for considering the military campaign in Gaza and Lebanon as "war crimes".
As simple as that. |
|
07-19-26 carib
When I was young, intelligent people used to read books, and newspapers.Political opinions and attitudes were based either on ideology or on specific policy proposals. Now most people no longer read long texts, and their attitudes are formed by emotional reactions to a few seconds digital bites pre-manipulated to generated such knee jerk reactions.
The result is a political arena populated by con men, clowns and crooks, with the end of rule of law and ethics.
O tempora, o mores... |
|
07-19-26 savo
cac.. i agree that will be the case... but in the meantime ... he can accept to stand trial at the ICC.. if he is innocent... he has nothing to fear...
if he is not why is the US protecting him? |
|
07-19-26 spal
count me among the proud idiots...
===
I meant in it in the sense of understanding the procedural mechanism that make his own vain claim about an arrest a fantasy. It is impossible for him to act, so he is simply feeding sentiment to his acolytes - which is propaganda. (And mainly he is full of propaganda and wishful thinking as all of his policies will in reality fail).
The moral question is different and much more colored and textured. |
|
07-19-26 CAC
I agree. But when Bibi leaves, many will face a crisis: they'll lose their favorite excuse and will have to find a new cover for their obsession.
Mamdani is just trying to score easy propaganda points shooting blanks.
That said, Bibi might have to be careful travelling after leaving office.. |
|
07-19-26 victor
savo, who do you think will win today? argy or spain?
|
|
07-19-26 savo
During the 12-day war in June 2025, Iranian missiles and drones struggled against sophisticated Israeli and American electronic warfare. GPS jamming and spoofing repeatedly disrupted their guidance systems, limiting their effectiveness during the intense 12-day conflict. Fast-forward to early 2026, and the battlefield dynamics had shifted dramatically. Iran’s precision strikes began threading through advanced air defenses, hitting high-value targets across the Gulf with surprising accuracy. Intelligence analysts pointed to one key factor: Iran had ditched GPS for China’s Beidou satellite navigation system.
The US unwittingly provided the spark that ignited China’s quest for the Beidou. The story begins in 1993 when a single Chinese container ship, the Yinhe, sailing to Iran, the vessel was accused by the CIA of carrying chemicals for weapons production. Middle Eastern ports, under pressure from the US, refused entry and the ship was stranded in the Indian Ocean. The US not only pressured allies but reportedly disabled the ship’s GPS access, forcing it to drop anchor for weeks. Inspections in Saudi Arabia eventually cleared the vessel, but China received no apology or compensation.
This humiliation—losing navigation mid-ocean due to reliance on a foreign-controlled system—became a pivotal lesson for Beijing. It accelerated development of an independent satellite navigation network: Beidou (BDS).
BDS-1 (2000s) provided initial regional coverage.
BDS-2 expanded capabilities.
BDS-3 (completed around 2020) transformed it into a global powerhouse with dozens of satellites, far more ground stations (especially in the Global South), and superior accuracy in many regions compared to GPS.
Today, Beidou outperforms GPS in coverage and precision across roughly 165 countries, offering a resilient alternative that cannot be unilaterally jammed or spoofed by Western powers.
After the 2025 conflict exposed vulnerabilities in GPS-dependent systems, Iran moved decisively. By late 2025 or early 2026, it integrated Beidou into its missile and drone arsenals. Reports from March 2026 already highlighted dramatic improvements: Iranian munitions evaded electronic countermeasures that had worked months earlier.
Key advantages of Beidou for Iran include:
Resistance to jamming/spoofing — Advanced frequency-hopping and anti-interference tech.
Higher accuracy — Circular error probable under 5 meters in key regions, enabling precise strikes with fewer munitions.
Real-time command — Secure messaging allows mid-flight adjustments over long distances.
This upgrade has contributed significantly to Iran’s ability to penetrate US defenses in the Gulf countries and dramatically improved Iran’s ability to strike critical targets, which has undermined confidence in US security guarantees in the Gulf.
The US decision to use GPS as a weapon in 1993 has backfired spectacularly—proof that humiliating China inspired a technological leap that now gives China and its allies a strategic advantage over the US.
https://sonar21.com/chinas-beidou-satellite-system-is-a-game-changer-in-irans-war-with-the-us/ |
|
07-19-26 savo
he is largely addressing idiots
count me among the proud idiots...
Hopeful to see the butcher of Jerusalem and his cohort of bloodsucker killers of women and children... in the darkest and coldest jail for the rest of their criminal lives. |
|
07-19-26 victor
Kuwait’s armed forces are reporting incoming Iranian missile and drones attacks.
The army said it “notes that any explosions heard are a result of air defense systems intercepting hostile attacks,” it said in a statement.
|
|
07-19-26 spal
Mamdani is just trying to score easy propaganda points shooting blanks.
===
Yes just another slick snake who thinks that he is largely addressing idiots (which unfortunately is normally true). |
|
07-19-26 victor
savo, carib ...
//
Trump venderá sus mensajes en redes a los inversores de Wall Street
Los operadores dispondrán información antes de que se publique para especular
Pagar 100.000 dólares cada mes para conocer con antelación los mensajes de Donald Trump en las redes sociales puede proporcionar a los inversores una información muy valiosa sobre cómo van a evolucionar los mercados en los instantes posteriores. Sobre este mecanismo, que bordea una dudosa práctica de acceso a información privilegiada, el presidente de Estados Unidos aspira a monetizar todavía más su cargo presidencial.
Aprovechando su posición privilegiada en la Casa Blanca, el magnate se presenta ahora como el oráculo de Wall Street. Bajo la forma de una suscripción premium, igual que muchas otras redes sociales, Donald Trump pondrá a la venta la información que él mismo produce en la red Truth Social, con la finalidad de impulsar ganancias especulativas. La oferta arranca el 1 de agosto. “Los mercados ya se mueven en función de las publicaciones en Truth Social”, afirmó Kevin McGurn, director general interino de Trump Media and Technology Group.
Trump Media precisó que esta interfaz automatizada (API) proporcionaría “un acceso autorizado y en tiempo real a las publicaciones de las cuentas importantes de Truth Social”. No solo se venderían los mensajes de Trump, sino también de otros miembros de su familia. Truth Social fue fundada por el magnate después de que fue expulsado de la plataforma Twitter (hoy X). Las tarifas, no confirmadas todavía, podrían adaptarse según los clientes y oscilarían entre 60.000 y 100.000 dólares cada mes.
Para un grupo de inversores, los que apuestan a corto plazo, saber segundos antes qué es lo que va a publicar el presidente puede proporcionarles una gran ventaja. Baste pensar el impacto que generó el anuncio de la suspensión de los aranceles recíprocos en abril del 2025 en los mercados. Unos días después de anunciarlos, Trump dio marcha atrás al suspender los aranceles durante 90 días con un anuncio en Truth Social, escribiendo: “¡ESTE ES UN GRAN MOMENTO PARA COMPRAR!”. Las acciones se dispararon un 9,5% ese día, añadiendo 4 billones de dólares a la riqueza de los inversores según el índice S&P 500. El conflicto de intereses de Donald Trump, 13 millones de seguidores, se hace cada vez más grande. La empresa propietaria de Truth, Trump Media and Technology Group, está en manos del mismo presidente. Que es la misma persona que postea.
Elisabeth Warren, la veterana senadora demócrata, dijo que “es un plan escandaloso para lucrarse con la presidencia y enriquecer a Wall Street mientras no hace nada para ayudar a los ciudadanos norteamericanos”. “Es odioso, vender acceso al mejor postor en Wall Street”, dijo Dylan Hedler-Gaudette, experto en normas federales de ética de la organización Project on Government Oversight. “Es otra muestra más de corrupción descarada”, opina Kathleen Clark, de la Facultad de Derecho de la Universidad de Washington y experta en normas de ética gubernamental. “Trump puede llenarse los bolsillos vendiendo acceso a información”.
El magnate ganó al menos 1.200 millones de dólares gracias a sus actividades en criptomonedas en 2025, según documentos hechos públicos el pasado mes de junio. |
|
07-19-26 victor
Reportan múltiples explosiones en Bandar Abbas y la isla de Qeshm, según medios iraníes
|
|
07-19-26 carib
I was amongst the initial promoters of the ICC, but as far as I remember the USA did not ratify the ICC treaty. Delegates to UN meetings enjoy diplomatic immunity, and in the USA that is a federal, not state or city matter.
Mamdani is just trying to score easy propaganda points shooting blanks.
That said, Bibi might have to be careful travelling after leaving office.. |
|
Board
