05-31-26 pillz
| But internet is free, and a lot of C° make big money on internet , may by it will be the same with AI ?? |
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05-31-26 pillz
incidentally... i used AI several times today... didn't pay a cent...
I hope those forecasting trillions of income know how to find better customers than me.
//
same here ???? |
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05-31-26 amateur
Dont lose your sleep about the AI bubble bursting. Everything will be fine.
Peter Thiel is movimg to Argentina. |
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05-31-26 spal
Davos has died. The future is less about raw, explosive hostility and more about cold, transactional containment.
The borderless global map of the Davos era replaces itself with three massive, technologically isolated economic gravity wells.
Borders don't vanish, but the underlying infrastructure behind them completely decouples.
💎 The Fortress Americas Well: The US, Canada, and parts of Latin America (like Argentina and Mexico) form a hyper-insulated, self-contained loop. This zone controls the world's primary energy surplus, the deepest pools of private credit, and the elite intellectual property of the AI Nation.
💎 The Euro-Bloc Well: Europe operates as a highly regulated tech-enclave. Desperate to protect its social democracies, it relies on strict data compliance and carbon-border adjustment taxes to prevent being economically steamrolled by American algorithmic power and cheap Chinese hardware.
💎 The Pan-Asian Statist Well: A China-led axis, anchored by alternative network architectures and bilateral BRICS currency corridors. They trade heavily within their own sphere using the "ersatz dollar" clearing systems, prioritizing state-directed manufacturing over open capital flows.
Interactions between these wells are stripped of all ideological pretense.
There are no more open-ended trade treaties - only blunt, transactional commodity swaps. We will trade you high-compute Blackwell silicon allocations if you trade us direct, un-blockaded access to raw copper and lithium. |
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05-31-26 spal
| The world doesn’t descend into a chaotic, Mad Max-style dystopia. Instead, it transitions into what historians call a "Fragmented Peace"—a multi-layered, highly managed global architecture that feels normal on the surface but operates under completely rewritten rules underneath. |
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05-31-26 spal
"True sovereignty in the 21st century comes down to who owns the foundational chokepoints of global industry. While the world races to build digital infrastructure and automated factories, the underlying reality is one of Asymmetric Leverage. Between the Foreign Direct Product Rule controlling advanced chip manufacturing and the deep liquidity of the U.S. financial system, the U.S. has built an un-replicable, self-sustaining ecosystem. The macro trend isn't just about deglobalization; it's about a superpower realizing it possesses the internal energy, capital, and algorithmic tools to drive its own future without being a hostage to foreign supply chains."
No Kumbaya ... No "we are the world" ... |
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05-31-26 spal
The future belongs to the Technocratic Fortress.
The U.S. is successfully leveraging its control over the AI, its domestic energy independence, and its financial depth to pull up the drawbridge.
Meanwhile, autocracies are forced to build heavily managed domestic alternatives within their own spheres of influence.
The luxury of elite globalist consensus is officially over; the era of raw, sovereign algorithmic power has begun.
Trump has said it already ... we don't need anyone. |
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05-31-26 spal
The Davos Model relies fundamentally on comparative advantage and corporate-led global arbitrage: Design in California, assemble in Asia, optimize corporate tax structures in Europe. This setup required low-friction borders.
AI disrupts this arbitrage by shifting the primary economic driver from cheap foreign labor and financialized offshoring to localized algorithmic power.
AI allows advanced economies to reshore manufacturing, software development, and services via extreme automation. Developing nations can no longer reliably use the "cheap labor" ladder to climb out of poverty.
The open, collaborative public-private partnerships championed at the World Economic Forum are incompatible with an environment where the U.S. Department of Commerce uses the Foreign Direct Product Rule to unilaterally gatekeep advanced silicon. AI forces a shift from borderless "stakeholder cooperation" to survivalist "chokepoint diplomacy." |
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05-31-26 spal
Amigo ... the core architectural flaw of the Davos Model (stakeholder capitalism and borderless integration) was its naive, end-of-history assumption that economic integration would inevitably export Western liberal democracy. Instead, globalized capitalism acted as a wealth-generation engine that autocracies and statist regimes effectively co-opted to fuel an era of aggressive neo-statism. Take that utter waste of space at the head of the WHO as a prime example ...
By prioritizing global public-private supply chains over domestic social cohesion, Western elites alienated their own polities. This neglect triggered internal populist revolts, discredited institutional leadership, and opened the door for external counters like BRICS and localized de-dollarization pushes.
When you inject the dual realities of generative AI and the structural shift toward "Fortress America," the traditional Davos Model utterly collapses.
It is being replaced by a highly fragmented, zero-sum global order. |
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05-31-26 panasonic
Spal, good post, "tool" wise that is how powerful the mutation promises to be...in your opinion, will Davos Model survive or collapse?
Definition of Davos Model (and variants) from Gemini:
Developing countries cannot be said to function uniformly under a "Davos model." While wealthy, advanced economies are deeply integrated into the global capitalism and public-private partnerships championed by the World Economic Forum, they exhibit vastly different economic, political, and social architectures.
The concept of the "Davos model"—or "stakeholder capitalism"—proposes that governments and corporations collaborate to manage public issues, allowing private industry to drive agile governance while social/environmental concerns are handled alongside traditional profits.
Nuances defining the application of this model include:Variations Among Developed Nations: Not all developed countries operate under the same economic philosophy. The U.S. leans heavily toward free-market capitalism, whereas European nations typically embrace robust social democracies with stronger labor protections, higher taxation, and comprehensive welfare states.
Corporate vs. State Power: Critics argue the Davos model places too much power in the hands of corporate and financial elites at the expense of democratic processes. While this is visible in lobbying and policy-making within wealthy nations, domestic regulations and antitrust laws function to check this power to varying degrees.
Geopolitics and Globalization: The idealized Davos model relies on global integration and free trade. However, many developed countries are actively shifting toward protectionism, industrial policies, and reshoring supply chains to protect domestic industries and national security |
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05-31-26 spal
92% of legal professionals now use AI (up from 69% in 2025).
... for example I am not a lawyer (although I play one AI) ... I recently redrafted a 1959 easement for one of my properties and am happy that title files it with the country land office ... no lawyer involved.
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05-31-26 spal
A Schpalian Intuitive Reframing:
If a normal country's GDP is like a diversified portfolio of steady but average-return assets, the AI "economy" is like owning the highest-conviction, highest-upside venture bets in the portfolio plus the strategic assets that make the whole system run better. It punches above its direct spending weight because:It is enabling technology — like electricity or the internet, but accelerating faster.
The proprietary moats and prestige create asymmetric upside (and some risks, such as concentration or uneven diffusion). Early ROI debates exist (some hyperscalers face questions on near-term returns), yet the strategic and spillover nature makes it far more consequential than raw dollar-for-dollar GDP equivalence suggests.
In short, treating AI spending as "just another country's economy" misses that this is frontier, high-leverage activity with the potential to rewire productivity, innovation, and power structures across the global economy — exactly as we discussed with mega-clusters, supply-chain chokepoints, and sovereign strategies.
It's not just big; it's foundational.
The dog's may bark, but the Silicon Caravan moves on ...
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05-31-26 panasonic
Savo, the client is the one that substitutes a paid job, those will pay.
True, previous revolutions closed doors while others opened, substitution was bottom up, a wooden loom (manually operated) was replaced by weaving machines i.e.
This time is top down, high earners are main target to be replaced.
Engineers, Doctors, Lawyers, wealth managers...how that plays in your opinion? |
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05-31-26 spal
Schpal's "AI nation"
2025 actual global AI spending: Approximately $1.76 trillion (Gartner baseline figure, with heavy weighting toward realized infrastructure and enterprise outlays).
This alone makes the “AI nation” comparable in economic scale to South Korea (projected GDP ~$1.93 trillion in recent 2026 estimates) or approaching Australia/Spain (~$2.1 trillion range). It would rank roughly in the global top 12–15 economies.
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05-31-26 spal
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05-31-26 spal
If AI were a country, its “economy” (total annual spending on AI infrastructure, software, services, models, and related activity) would already be roughly the size of South Korea — and is on track in 2026 to approach the scale of Italy or Canada.
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05-31-26 spal
NVIDIA’s single quarter of AI chip sales ($75B) is roughly equivalent to the entire annual global box-office revenue of the movie industry (pre-pandemic peaks) — or more than the yearly revenue of major companies like Salesforce or Adobe.
Microsoft’s $37B AI run-rate is comparable to the annual revenue of a Fortune 100 consumer goods giant like Nike or Coca-Cola’s core business.
Combined major AI pure-plays (OpenAI + Anthropic run-rates ~$55B) already rival the annual revenue of a large software leader like Adobe or Autodesk — and they achieved this in roughly 3 years from near-zero.
2025 full-year AI infrastructure spend ($318B actual) is on the scale of global venture capital deployment in a strong year or roughly the annual R&D budget of the entire pharmaceutical industry worldwide.
In enterprise terms, this wave of real paid subscriptions and cloud commitments is moving money at a pace comparable to the early cloud computing boom (AWS/Azure/GCP combined) but compressed into far fewer years and concentrated in fewer winners.
Bottom line (real-money view): AI uptake is no longer experimental
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05-31-26 spal
Global AI spending is projected to hit $2.59 trillion in 2026 — a 47% increase year-over-year. This includes infrastructure, software, services, and models. Enterprises are a big driver, with generative AI and agentic AI (autonomous systems) seeing particularly fast growth. Roughly 72% of enterprises now have at least one AI workload in production, and 88% use AI in at least one business function. Worker access to AI tools rose ~50% in 2025 alone.
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05-31-26 spal
I am paying modestly for AI ... I already blew past the free version. So far I think I am getting good value.
Co's and states are big users already. We'll see where it goes. |
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05-30-26 savo
incidentally... i used AI several times today... didn't pay a cent...
I hope those forecasting trillions of income know how to find better customers than me. |
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05-30-26 savo
pana.. there have been many economic revolutions in history... IMHO this is one more... which as usual wall street turns into another bubble in which companies are going to make trillions (in the past billions) investing money that nobody knows where it will be coming from... to sell products that nobody knows who is going to buy and at what price ... starving the rest of the economy a bit more...
All economic revolutions leave people out of work... which is always used by the left to expand benefits, handouts and government.. and that is why G now costs more than 40% of GDP...taxes are where they are and those financially independent look to relocate. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
| PS: I understand my view can be totally wrong to many here, the only thing me ask, post your playbook. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, the one million question, can't give you a timeline but cycle seems to be:
Companies adopt AI bcz otherwise fall behind.
On lack of jobs global consumption drops, economies slow down and prices of compute don't hold.
Voters get angry, "los pinkitos" franchise offer price controls, frozen rents and confiscatory taxes, get elected.
AI trackers are hard to bypass, Thiel's AI will find you.
Golden visas start to fail bcz locals get out-priced and pissed...their vote goes to "los pinkitos" local branch.
...am I missing something? |
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05-30-26 savo
| pana.. but how profitable will be the business? anybody knows? |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Spal, massive orders, profit margins are gigantic, demand of tokens is exponential.
On the other hand, investors fear this will end up like fiber during internet days, same or different this time? |
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05-30-26 spal
| Nearly 50% of all shipped Blackwell chips are split between just four corporate entities: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon (AWS), and Google. AWS alone has committed to adding more than 1 million Blackwell and successor Rubin architectures to its footprint. |
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05-30-26 spal
Goog - 1400 racks of NVIDA chips ... 1400 * 1.44 Exaflops a second ... give or take
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05-30-26 spal
The Baseline Cluster (16 to 32 Racks): For mid-scale enterprise AI training or heavy region-wide inference deployment, a standard cluster consists of roughly 16 to 32 racks.
The Frontier Training Cluster (512 to 1,000+ Racks): To build "frontier" large language models (like the successors to GPT-4 or Claude 3), hyperscalers bundle massive arrays together.
The Scale: A mega-cluster of 1,400 GB200 racks houses over 100,000 GPUs functioning in perfect sync.
Microsoft & Google - use mega-clusters to anchor their respective cloud ecosystems (Azure and Google Cloud). |
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05-30-26 spal
To put 1.44 Exaflops in perspective: If every single human being on Earth did one math calculation every second, 24 hours a day, it would take the entire global population nearly 6 years to calculate what this single black rack can compute in one single second.
= 1 rack of NVIDA chips ... |
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05-30-26 carib
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05-30-26 carib
| Zug wealth tax is truly about 0,25%.. but that, for lump sum taxpayers, only applies to the amount used to calculate the said lump sum. So, if your net worth is 10 billion, but your lump sum cantonal agreement is based of a figurative base of 4 million, I guess you pay only about 10.000 CHF of wealth tax annually, an effective tate of 0,0001% |
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05-30-26 carib
Before 2006, Luxembourg had a personal wealth tax of 0,5%.. but it was in practice rather harmless for wealthy residents:
1) the tax value of real estate is still based on 1940 prices.
my house, for example, pays as much as 40 € a year, which is 0.0003% of value. foreign RE was and remains exempt.
2) holdings were (and remain) tax exempt, with no need to declare
3) life insurance policies remain exempt, with no need to declare.
;-) |
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05-30-26 carib
Savo: the big problem about wealth taxes, as you certainly know.. is not the rate, but the obligation to declare the global wealth in question, and to have it assessed. Once you have to file, nothing prevents future governments from increasing the rates.
Usually, such government would first introduce an "exit tax" on the wealth itself or on unrealised gains, so you get taxed even if you leave. |
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05-30-26 carib
| Panas: Mamdani's powers, as far as I understand, only concern city taxes. Connecticut is very close. |
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05-30-26 carib
| A Dutch personal foundation (known as a Stichting) is a versatile, autonomous legal entity uniquely structured without shareholders, members, or share capital. Acting as a "civil law trust," it is widely used by high-net-worth families for wealth preservation, asset protection, and smooth intergenerational business succession. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
| Carib, yep but pls don't tell Mamdani's gang or they will go after small cookies using Thiel's tracking AI-interpol to chase non-billionaires as well. |
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05-30-26 savo
carib.. i wouldn't move to any place which does not offer me a tax deal in writing.
I am not saying argie is good simple that is less bad than before...
the 0.5 to 1% is coming down from 3% and expected to go down further.
In a developed world where pana expects a generalised wealth tax, 0.5% might not be that bad. Ticino in CH goes up to 0.6%. Valais and Zug up to 0.3%.
Tax laws change in many places not only argie. |
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05-30-26 carib
Savo:
Because the bill faced fierce opposition from investors and business leaders over taxing "unrealized" wealth, the Dutch government is considering significant amendments before it is fully enacted. The governing coalition intends to transition the country toward a strictly "realized gains" system. For the official text and updates, consult the Dutch Tax Administration (Belastingdienst). |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Vic, some of ZP's Chinese connections exposed here:
https://x.com/benegasj/status/2060337471125172592?s=48
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05-30-26 carib
Panas: I guess you do not need to be "a billionaire" to borrow at lombard rates with your liquid assets as security. It is a very common way to avoid taxes on capital income, provided you have a viable accumulation vehicle.
Your vehicle is worth, for example, 10 million, and grows at an average of 8% p.a.. Instead of distributing yourself 400K p.a...
you borrow the 400K from the bank, paying, say, 14K of interest on that, rather than 40% income tax, which would be 10 times bigger.
Besides, the 400K in question remain in the vehicle, producing 32K of gains in the said year.. so your net cost is minus 18K, instead of 160K.. |
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05-30-26 carib
Savo: then a US person worth 200 billion dollars globally.. would "just" pay 2 billion dollars a year of Argy wealth taxes, plus his US taxes if any? would he be not better off in a jursdiction with 0 wealth tax?
Besides, Argy is known for changing tax laws quite frequently.. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, and AI baby still in diapers.
Pope Leo and me the only two guys that think those babies are able to grow faster than people imagine.
Thiel could have more strong data, but he won't share details. |
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05-30-26 savo
pana.. that is changing.. Netherlands introduced tax on "unrealized" cap gains...
it is coming...
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05-30-26 panasonic
Billionairs never take profits, hence no taxes, they live from loans on their to tha moon shares.
But pls don't tell those greedy politicians willing to tax the rich on their wealth, no one would vote for them anyway :-)) |
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05-30-26 panasonic
| ...must be the tango thing :-)) |
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05-30-26 savo
if they make 4) all 15%... argie is almost at the level of Uruguay which has 12%...
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05-30-26 savo
carib.. argie is less tax hellish now..
1) argie equity, CEDEARs and Sovereign debt pay zero cap gain tax.
2) Fixed term deposits and sovereign debt pay zero income tax.
3) Wealth tax is 0.5 to 1% excluding banc accounts in argie.
4) Foreign sov bonds, foreign corp bonds, foreign term deposit and foreign dividends pay income tax at the marginal rate and 15% for capital gains.
5) Local corporate bonds pay zero income tax and zero cap gains tax
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05-30-26 carib
| .. he would have to pay billions in Argy wealth taxes if he had done so.. |
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05-30-26 carib
Spal: not sure Thiel got Argy residency.
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05-30-26 carib
The United Arab Emirates conducted dozens of airstrikes against Iran over the course of the war, ending the day after the US -Iran cease-fire was announced in early April, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
The UAE coordinated with the US and Israel, utilizing intelligence from both, and targeted Iranian energy sites in response to Iranian strikes on UAE oil and gas infrastructure, the WSJ cited several sources as saying.
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05-30-26 spal
During his high-level, confidential meetings with Milei at the Casa Rosada, Thiel’s focus wasn't just on short-term corporate deals. According to Milei himself, the conversations centered on "how the foundations of liberalism can endure."
Thiel is viewing Argentina through a highly specific macroeconomic lens
Milei’s massive deregulation campaigns and tax cuts provide a frictionless playground for "frontier technologies" that are heavily bogged down by red tape in the U.S. and Europe.
Thiel has explicitly expressed investment interest in Argentina's massive agricultural sector. Combined with vast shale reserves (Vaca Muerta) and critical minerals like lithium, Argentina offers a rare, completely self-sustaining, geographically insulated economic moat.
Beyond personal real estate, Thiel’s presence is widely seen by analysts as a prelude to deploying Palantir's data analytics and AI infrastructure at a state level.
Under the "Isaac Accords" framework, the administration is eager to integrate high-compute Western intelligence and security tech to reform the state's operations.
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05-30-26 spal
We do know that the Jewish community has targeted accelerated settlement in Argentina (new attaché, direct flights etc. etc.) ... this is a parallel not necessarily a related development.
Theil is of course crazy as a cut snake, one of my sons has been to one of his "secret society" type meetings (my son is not a regular attendee but substituted once for someone in his orbit). They are more than unhinged "libertarians" ... but I can see Thiel feeling that that he is channelling the forces of the universe in his fireside chat is Casa Rosada with the equally unhinged Milei.
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05-30-26 spal
| He does escape state tax jurisdiction. Ergo CA wealth tax. |
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05-30-26 spal
| Thiel is a US citizen and remains a US citizen for tax purposes. Maybe he and his boyfriend like the tango. |
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05-30-26 carib
Se rompre la cuerda de la bandera de España durante el izado en el desfile del Día de las Fuerzas Armadas
El incidente ha ocurrido cuando ha partido el enganche por donde pasaba la cuerda durante uno de los momentos más importantes del acto y ante la mirada del rey Felipe VI que presidía la ceremonia y que, por primera vez, lo hacía acompañado por la princesa Leonor |
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05-30-26 carib
PS: It would be nice if Milei transformed Argy into a tax haven.
Currently, it's still tax hell, as far as I understand. |
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05-30-26 carib
| Panas: not really. we are possibly trying to de-construct globalisation. I am not sure this will work, but it any case it produces re-nationalisation. Re nationalisation includes taxation, where national interests are conflictual. Many countries might try to enforce global taxes against each other, but not on a cooperative manner. Of course people need always to have "plan B.. C and D". I guess we all have had those since the last century.. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, agree, significant move coming from an AI expert on tracking people.
In his league, would be dumb not to expand horizons.
In Musk and Bezos league, earth is to close from "Pinkitos". |
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05-30-26 savo
pana.. this guy probably has several bases... he just added one more buying a house in the most expensive city district..
but he is not the first one... other mega rich have done the same.. buying agricultural land or land by lakes in the mountainous area
given that cap gain taxes have been dropped to 15% argie is attractive now in its own terms...
Wealth tax has been reduced to 0.5-1%
I think people are starting to be less concerned about tax rates and more about getting as far as possible developed countries agendas.
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05-30-26 panasonic
Carib, from your post I infere you don't see Davos model collapse.
NY is the perfect example of the contrary, AI will accelerate that franchise, sadly. |
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05-30-26 panasonic
Savo, interesting move by Thiel.
If someone knows abt. people tracking it's him, together with Alex Karp.
Karp is the most vocal of the two founders of Palantir. |
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05-30-26 savo
moving south..
Peter Thiel's move to Argentina reflects a growing trend among billionaires seeking a 'plan B' abroad
https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-argentina-billionaire-moving-abroad-2026-5 |
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05-30-26 victor
savo, that is how he will go bankrupt.
interesting |
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