03-31-26 amateur
Pillz, "finished their military job..." seems a goldylocks description. With the US out of the scene, (in shame) and an angry Iran in control of Hormuz, the ME future looks rather like a permanent war between Iran's rearmament push (even nuclear) against Israel attacks to prevent it.
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03-31-26 spal
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03-31-26 spal
antizionism feeling ... in my own conception this should never be directed at Caroline ... but criticism of Israel should not be prevented under a shield that it is somehow "antizionist".
Israel is a state among states and people can fairly compare and criticize its actions. Claiming criticism and fierce polemical debate is antizionist is false. Personalizing any of this against Caroline is unacceptable. They are two separate things. |
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03-31-26 spal
| Ok ... Pilly thanks ... I did not know that she would judge NY essentially through that lens. I understand it as personal and that it does help understand the broader context. Thanks for sharing that. |
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03-31-26 spal
| MAP ... aka "pay for protection" ... like it or not. |
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03-31-26 spal
While headlines focus on kinetic exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz, the structural reality is the rollout of the American Maritime Action Plan (MAP).
This is not a temporary war measure.
The Hull-Origin Target:
The MAP replaces traditional "Flag of Convenience" oversight with a Hull-Origin Mandate. By levying a $0.25/kg security fee (hint: this is a lot) based on where a ship was built (note), the U.S. targets the core of rival industrial capital.
Since ~90% of the global commercial fleet originates in Chinese, South Korean, or Japanese yards, this fee acts as a structural tax on foreign-built tonnage.
By making this fee a requirement for insurability during the conflict, the U.S. is inserting "Paid Protection" into global logistics software. By the time the "stall" in negotiations ends, the fee may be a standard, non-negotiable line item.
Nations that integrate their naval assets and intelligence into the U.S. command (e.g., Japan, UK, Australia) are granted "Friends and Family" status. Partners receive a discounted "Domestic Rate," while non-aligned countries face a 15–20% landed-cost penalty.
Again IMO signs of a Command Economy pivot hidden behind "War Risk" rhetoric.
The projected $1.5 Trillion in revenue provides the U.S. with an off-balance-sheet fund to recapitalize domestic shipyards (OBBBA) and erode federal debt through nominal expansion. |
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03-31-26 spal
March 31, 2026
Donald Trump to the UK:
"You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!"
Trump in his own inchoate way articulates what underpins the MAP.
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03-31-26 savo
| pillz... Caroline speaks as if Israel is not leaded by a bloodthirsty maniac. Other than that ...being a frequent visitor to the US and the UK... i share her views. |
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03-31-26 savo
pt.. in essence... the us provoked a gigantic supply chain fuck up and inflation shock... did not achieve anything of substance other than destroying iran's infrastructure or forcing iran to destroy other countries' infrastructure... and now announces it may go home as of nothing happened.
I hope they do though and let the world live in peace.
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03-31-26 pillz
Or wiould he leave the fighting to Israel and retreat to a supporting role?
Can that work?
//
Israel will stop fighting if
trump say stop... btw, Israel military say they finished their military job... |
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03-31-26 pillz
Schpal, from my Caroline:
It’s a general feeling over the last few years with more visible protest and “antizionism” sentiment with sharper language around the cause. NYC always felt like a safe haven (so did London) but as a liberal Jew in today’s NYC it’s become less easy to navigate… being confronted regularly with the antizionism feeling (that at times is another word for antisemitism) that ignores history and debate is not a comfortable feeling
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03-31-26 patient-trader
The Hormuz Strait will re-open, when the US is gone. There is so much dependency between the Arabs and the Iranians that the Iranians cannot hold a chokehold on the Strait. They all need each other for trading, money laundering etc. Besides they are all short on money and need to pump oil like crazy.
So oil must flow through the Strait once the Gringos are back home with the tail between the legs. |
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03-31-26 ruspan
| Victor: The sad truth is that I completely ignore him :-) He is an insignificant puppet - clown, one of the present multitude. |
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03-31-26 victor
savo, is it over?
//
what is?
the iran war?
recuerda que estamos en Semana Santa. |
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03-31-26 victor
ruspan, The reality is that the US is NOT in control of the situation
//
so... do you now support sanchez?
do you at least recognize some of his merits?
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03-31-26 ruspan
How can false stability mask significant crisis processes?
A month has passed since the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, where LNG supplies are completely blocked (over 100 billion cubic meters annually), and oil and petroleum product supplies have been reduced by a factor of four (from 20-21 million barrels per day to 5-6 million barrels per day). 3-3.5 million barrels per day have been rerouted through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and 2-2.5 million barrels per day is the typical outgoing traffic from the Strait at the moment.
Aside from the information noise, rising oil prices, and a slight decline in markets, it seems as if there are no consequences, but this is deceptive.
▪️ In addition to oil and gas, a loss of petrochemicals, fertilizers, aluminum, helium, and some critical materials from Middle Eastern countries is expected.
The system is still operating on cargo in transit, commercial inventories, and contract inertia, but problems will begin in early April, where the physical shortage of oil and petroleum products could reach 8-10 million barrels per day, as 4-5 million barrels per day is offset by the reduction in strategic reserves in the agreed 400 billion barrel plan.
▪️In the second phase, the Asian region, most dependent on supplies from the Middle East, will begin to experience a significant shortage of imported oil, petroleum products, and petrochemicals, significantly limiting its own production potential in both energy and industry, intensifying the crisis in both industry and the service sector.
A critical shortage of one input component can reduce output by 50-100%, even if the remaining 90-95% of the supply chain is formally maintained. This is the "missing ingredient" principle, and it is this that transforms local shortages into a nonlinear cascade.
Despite ongoing negotiations to allow ships to pass through regularly to China, India, and Pakistan, as well as to other Asian countries (Malaysia and Korea), pre-war traffic is unlikely to return to normal in the medium term, due to both shipping problems and physical damage to infrastructure in the region, including ports (it is unknown how much export potential will remain even if the strait is completely lifted).
▪️In the third phase, beginning closer to May, Asia will be the first to implement restrictions on energy consumption, and inevitably, in the short term, Europe will begin to systematically impose restrictions on energy consumption at all levels, from households to industry, businesses, and government agencies, exacerbating the crisis.
Oil and gas are just the starting point here. The following sequence begins: loss of exported energy flows → contraction of refineries and petrochemicals → shortage of intermediate materials → halt in production chains → transition to rationing → investment pause → financial tightening, including through the collapse of financial markets and capital market paralysis → decline in employment and demand → crisis in the services sector → intensification of the debt market crisis with all the ensuing consequences.
Although North and South America are isolated from the crisis, the disruption of supply chains, production and logistics collapse, and falling demand in major regions will inevitably impact everyone due to inter-industry and cross-border interconnectedness.
We must not forget the desynchronization of global supplies, which is complicating production cycles in all key countries and industries, further exacerbating the crisis.
There's a 3-5 week lag from the start of the war before refinery cuts are implemented, followed by 1-2 months until severe restrictions on consumption are imposed, then 3-4 months until reserves are depleted, and six months later, total macrofinancial contagion and economic degradation occur.
This means that the crisis isn't developing linearly, but in stages. For a few weeks, everything seems under control. Then, suddenly, one cluster collapses, then a second cluster, then consumer demand, and then the capital market freezes due to the inflation shock, with no easing maneuvers from global central banks.
If the blockade drags on, the crisis will rapidly intensify (and it won't be avoidable). |
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03-31-26 ruspan
I will keep posting the analisys I consider might be of interest to Colores.
There is no progress in stabilizing the situation in the Persian Gulf energy cluster.
The only reason the war in the Middle East matters and is making headlines worldwide is the blocking of outgoing traffic from the Strait of Hormuz and the continuous destruction of energy and port infrastructure in Middle Eastern countries.
As soon as Iran loses leverage (for whatever reason), Iran itself will cease to be of interest to anyone, and the war (if it continues by then) will shift to a "finishing off" mode against Iran (unless Iran crushes the global economy and forces Trump to a shameful capitulation—this cannot be ruled out).
In other words, without Iran's leverage, the war will become routinized, just as the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Libya disappeared from the global agenda almost immediately after their onset, being of interest to industry specialists, historians, and military experts, but not to the international community.
But while Iran holds the world by the throat, this conflict overshadows everything – any news agenda, even the trendy hype around AI.
What options are there for stabilizing the situation? If diplomacy fails, only military options remain.
🔘Development and implementation of technologies for near-100% neutralization of attack UAVs – not now, but in the next 2-3 years, along with strengthening missile defense systems (in the next 3-5 years).
Neutralizing "flying lawnmowers" is a trivial task compared to neutralizing ballistic missiles. The only reason the breakthrough rate is so high is that technologically advanced countries simply haven't addressed this issue. This will be resolved in the future, albeit not completely, due to UAV modifications.
🔘Dismantling Iran's missile and drone programs, along with its military-industrial complex, disrupting supply chains for technological weapons while simultaneously blocking military aid from China, Russia, and/or North Korea. There's no way to conduct analysis without intelligence.
🔘Iran is expected to run out of missiles and drones, but there's no way to estimate its available stockpile compared to the destroyed depots and the missiles and drones fired over the past month.
A military unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, in particular, and the Persian Gulf in general, is practically impossible.
From all this, it follows that there's virtually no military solution other than waiting for Iran to run out of missiles and drones.
The cumulative effect of the strikes will naturally take effect, but it takes time, which the US and the world don't have. Therefore, a scenario in which the world collapses faster than Iran collapses is more likely.
So what can we actually see?
🔘The number of missiles launched towards Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain stabilized at an average of 18.2 missiles per day over the past 10 days through March 28 (from March 2 to March 28, the average was 18.7 missiles).
🔘The number of drones stabilized at 71.4 per day over the past 10 days, rising from 99 drones on March 2 to 77 drones per day on average since March 9.
This means that the situation has been very stable since March 9, with no trend, indicating the low effectiveness of the US and Israeli military campaign.
All this does not include Israel, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, and Oman.
🔘Since March 2, the number of tankers outbound from the Strait of Hormurz has been 1.64 per day, compared to a normal rate of 27-30 per day, i.e., 1.64 per day. A total of 46 over the 28 days ending March 29 inclusive, of which 31 were oil, 15 were liquefied petroleum gas, and zero were LNG!
Traffic has fallen by a factor of 17-18, with a slight recovery over the last 10 days to 2.2 per day, which is 13 times lower than normal.
The data is noisy due to transponder shutdowns and signal spoofing, but it's fair to assume that traffic is approximately 10 times lower than normal, or about 2-2.5 million barrels per day instead of 20-21 million barrels per day, of which 1.5 million barrels per day is Iran.
🔘The only thing that remains constant is Trump's mockery, buffoonery, trolling, and trash-talking.
The reality is that the US is NOT in control of the situation, Iran has stabilized its military pressure on the region, and the global economic resilience may be lower than Iran's stock of strike weapons before they are completely exhausted. |
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03-31-26 amateur
Or wiould he leave the fighting to Israel and retreat to a supporting role?
Can that work? |
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03-31-26 amateur
Will he abandon the whole of the ME to China?
And Israel? |
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03-31-26 pillz
The president has told aides that he’s willing to end the US military campaign, even if the strait remains mostly closed, the Wall Street Journal reported. White House officials didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Exiting the conflict without a deal to resume the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz would represent a major loss for the US. Washington is considering using diplomatic channels to pressure Iran to reopen the passage, or leaving it to allies in Europe and the Gulf region to negotiate, the paper reported. |
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03-31-26 pillz
is it over?
//
I hope so, there is no other way imo |
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03-31-26 savo
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03-31-26 pillz
Netanyahu: 'Only long-term solution for Hormuz crisis is rerouting pipes to Mediterranean'
"Long-term solutions include rerouting energy pipelines westward, across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and Mediterranean, bypassing Iran's geographic choke point," Netanyahu told Newsmax. |
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03-31-26 spal
| Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the JCS Dan Caine will hold a press conference tomorrow concerning Operation Epic Fury at 8:00am EST. |
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03-31-26 pillz
Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed,
//
I find it cool, as they did what they wanted , and Israel also, now it is up to Iran to decide to open or not to open Hormuz.., and if they stay closed .. it will be to the countries that want it to open to do the job ... |
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03-31-26 savo
| spal.. extraordinary your Schrödinger Trump! |
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03-31-26 spal
| Pilly thanks - it will be an interesting opinion. |
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03-31-26 spal
The "Project 2025" Disavowal ... an example of Trump's mastery of political quantum super positioning.
Throughout his 2024 campaign, Trump claimed he had "nothing to do with Project 2025" and called it "ridiculous".
The Superposition: He remained in a state of being "unaware" of the plan while the authors were his closest former advisors.
The Collapse: Upon taking office in 2025, he immediately began implementing many of its core tenets, such as dismantling the Department of Education and ending DEI programs. By late 2025, he even boasted of meeting with its authors, effectively "endorsing" the work he previously mocked.
His later work showing quantum entanglements and increasing evidence of the related field of political decoherence.
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03-31-26 pillz
How Pilly?
//
I will ask her to mail me the "how Pilly" and post it here Schpal... |
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03-31-26 spal
Trump’s "Schrödinger’s War" is the ultimate quantum system: it stays in a state of both "total peace" and "imminent strike" right up until it interacts with a "large, warm environment"—usually a 60 Minutes interview or a rally crowd.
The moment he measures the room's applause, the wave function collapses: he either becomes a Nobel Peace Prize candidate or the God of War, depending entirely on which version gets the louder cheer. |
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03-31-26 spal
| Schrödinger's Trump stated the operation was "very complete, pretty much," but also that "we haven't won enough." |
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03-31-26 spal
WSJ: “President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran's firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.”
Super TACO ... maybe a Burrito |
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03-31-26 spal
Amateur - maybe - it hardly matters under the circumstances.
I personally can't stand the Saudi regime ... which probably matters even less.
;) |
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03-31-26 spal
🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇶⚡️- BREAKING: Iran has struck American university in Sulaymaniyah, Iraq.
Large plumes of smoke can be seen coming from the campus. |
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03-31-26 amateur
Come on, he sent Rubio to publicly express his disgust with SA for making an alliance with Ukraine! Putin was about to say the same…DT saved him the effort.
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03-31-26 spal
Spal, publicly supporting Putin does not seem the best way to seek Europe’s help with Iran…
Where is the pilot ?
===
... Amateur - I missed the public support bit ... but the US green lighted the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian Oil Infrastructure.
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03-31-26 spal
| JUST IN: 🇦🇪🇮🇷 Reported impact in Al Satwa, one of Dubai's most densely populated neighborhoods. |
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03-31-26 amateur
“Marco Rubio, on behalf of Donald Trump, expressed regret that the Saudi authorities signed defense agreements with Ukraine “
Spal, publicly supporting Putin does not seem the best way to seek Europe’s help with Iran…
Where is the pilot ? 😨 |
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03-31-26 amateur
“Iran strikes a fully laden Kuwait oil tanker in Dubal port.”
Was that one of the charlatan’s 15 demands that they had given in? |
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03-31-26 spal
| Panas - yes. Let's see how much of the Trump program is turned into law by the Congress. |
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03-31-26 panasonic
| Spal, China has a precious asset that Trump doesn't have, "time" :-( |
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03-30-26 panasonic
China saw it coming:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fxstreet.com/amp/news/china-saw-it-coming-and-the-market-is-starting-to-believe-it-202603300440 |
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03-30-26 spal
… Chickity China the Chinese chicken
You have a drumstick and your brain stops tickin' |
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03-30-26 spal
Panas - The U.S. is a net exporter of energy essentials. In a "Higher-for-Longer" war scenario (beyond 110 days), a country that owns the well (U.S.) structurally outperforms a country that owns the storage tank (China).
Short term maybe ... longer term with Russia squeezed and the Gulf interrupted and dangerous ... no. |
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03-30-26 spal
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on behalf of Donald Trump, expressed regret that the Saudi authorities signed defense agreements with Ukraine without consulting the United States, which had been Saudi Arabia’s main ally.
In response, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman noted that the U.S. had failed to fully protect the Kingdom from Iranian strikes, and therefore Saudi Arabia made a decision that could quickly strengthen its defense capabilities. The Crown Prince also stated that his country will continue to be guided by its own national interests when making decisions regarding its defense.
This was a slap in the face to Trump from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in response to Trump’s crude and scandalous public statement that “…now let the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia kiss my ass and be polite to me from now on. |
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03-30-26 panasonic
Goldman gives some details on how China is "better" prepared for higher oil prices:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-goldman-sachs-says-chinas-economy-is-better-than-the-us-in-handling-oil-shock-142610418.html |
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03-30-26 spal
Likelihood of a SpillModerately high.
A fully loaded crude tanker with confirmed hull breach + active fire creates structural stress, potential secondary explosions, or cargo tank compromise—conditions that frequently lead to leakage in similar Gulf incidents this month. Containment depends on rapid firefighting, boom deployment, and whether the fire breaches additional tanks. Historical parallels (e.g., March 2026 attacks on loaded tankers near Iraq/Kuwait) produced observable spills. Assigned probability: ~65–75% that a spill occurs (small-to-moderate scale initially; could escalate if fire spreads). It is not yet certain—effective response could limit it to minor leakage or none.
Will This Threaten Desalination Plants?
Yes, if a spill materializes—primarily in the immediate Dubai/UAE area.
The Persian Gulf hosts hundreds of desalination plants (Gulf states produce ~40–50% of global desalinated water). UAE facilities rely overwhelmingly on seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO), which is highly sensitive to oil contamination: even light slicks foul intakes, clog pre-filters/membranes, and force shutdowns or costly emergency cleaning.How many? Primarily 1–2 major complexes in the Dubai emirate (the Jebel Ali power-and-water complex, one of the world’s largest, with dozens of units supplying a huge share of Dubai’s potable water). Secondary risk to nearby Sharjah or other UAE plants if the slick migrates.
Broader regional impact (Saudi or further Gulf plants) is lower but possible over days/weeks via currents.
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03-30-26 spal
The giant Kuwaiti crude oil tanker “Al-Salmi” was directly targeted by Iran while in the Al-Makhtaf area of Dubai port, UAE.
The tanker was fully loaded at the time. The attack caused material damage to the ship, a fire on board, and a potential oil spill in surrounding waters. |
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03-30-26 spal
Crude WTI is up to $106 per barrel, up over 6%.
This comes after Iran struck a Kuwaiti linked oil tanker off the coast of Dubai. |
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03-30-26 panasonic
| Vic, a defeat in war traditionally has been punished by US voters, not a problem when center was majority in both parties, not the case right now...good news for China. |
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03-30-26 spal
... the people ...
===
How Pilly? |
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03-30-26 pillz
| Carib, my daughter Caroline , go frequently to NY, she say to me NY have changed ... the people ... |
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03-30-26 spaldo
Wolfgang Munchau:
The German “economic reform” debate is not about reforms at all. It is about tax increases. Abolishing the married couples tax allowance is a tax rise. Structural reforms would be: phasing out of pay-as-you-go pensions; ending wasteful industrial subsidiaries to clapped-out industries; stop wasting defence spending on old-tech from Rheinmetall; reform of the welfare system. The Merz government is clearly not interested in reforms. But more worryingly, nobody else seems to be either.
https://x.com/eurobriefing/status/2038515662406967796?s=46 |
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03-30-26 victor
pana, so you think it all hinges on iran?
i see, tks. |
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03-30-26 carib
| Pill: first time here with new Mayor... |
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03-30-26 carib
Just days after unveiling plans to raise $42 billion to bolster its purchases of Bitcoin, Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. took a pause after 13 consecutive announced weekly acquisitions of the cryptocurrency.
What Saylor - the co-founder and chairman of the largest corporate owner of Bitcoin - announces each Monday has become somewhat of a barometer of sentiment for the digital asset market. No purchases were made in the seven days ended March 29, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing today.
(bloomberg) |
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03-30-26 pillz
Defense sources: Trump Hormuz, nuke decisions determine war's end, Israel giving US intel on Strait
Defense sources were not convinced that Iran would accept a deal to end the war in the coming week, and if they don't, Trump would decide how to address the crisis in the Strait.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-891707 |
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03-30-26 pillz
In NYC right now.
Things look pretty normal..
//
where is it not normal ? in ME ? |
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03-30-26 carib
In NYC right now.
Things look pretty normal.. |
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03-30-26 panasonic
| Vic, if Trump is defeated in Iran we are looking at Democrats in Gov. for at least next 12 years, and from the AOC wing tjat is what is left. |
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03-30-26 victor
pt, what do you think of merz?
at least he's trying to get something done.
//
Alemania acuerda con Siria devolverle al menos 800.000 refugiados que huyeron de la guerra
Merz recibe en Berlín al presidente Al Sharaa, un antiguo yihadista que sigue legitimándose como líder internacional
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03-30-26 pillz
Hormuz still closed but Brent stopped rising...
//
the best of the day, why is it stopped rising is the question ??? |
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03-30-26 victor
pana, .I'm more pessimistic in the political front.
//
could you elaborate WHY you are so pessimistic?
i don't get why. |
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03-30-26 amateur
| Hormuz still closed but Brent stopped rising... |
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03-30-26 panasonic
"breaks the Iranian economy"
Imho already on "life support" provided by China, probably till a political change happens in US, may take one year or three, not a problem. |
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03-30-26 spal
The Completion Segment: Since the 2023 NexTier merger, PTEN controls nearly 20% of the North American completions market. As operators focus on capital efficiency, they are increasingly spending on workovers and well-servicing to maintain production without the cost of a new rig.
The WTI Shield: Because PTEN operates primarily in the Lower 48, its customers are shielded by the WTI-Brent spread. PTEN’s high-tier super-spec rigs and frac fleets remain in high demand. |
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03-30-26 spal
| PULSAR HELIUM INC. (PSRHF) ... bought a tracking position |
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03-30-26 spal
| Have been adding PTEN as work-over levels on US oil fields has got to increase. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Bought a little more UAN ... US Fertilizer (made from US Natural Gas) ... is not constrained by the current major squeeze on sulfur. Distributes a lot of cash. |
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03-30-26 spal
ALVOF
ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
... Brazil gas play ... small cap (I have mentioned this). Their gas pricing mechanism is linked to Brent and so the reset for sales post April 30 will be substantial. |
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03-30-26 spal
| MU ... Micron ... folks taking a bunch of money off the memory chip trade. So far this was an expected risk off move, but if it keeps moving down like this it is a leading indicator of the AI trade ... |
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03-30-26 spal
| The Inflationary Window: Every month this conflict remains "unsettled" provides the necessary window for global energy inflation to erode the real value of the $35 trillion U.S. debt. A sudden peace would trigger a deflationary shock that would halt the "Debt Shredder" prematurely. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Iranian Domestic Threshold: Tehran is betting that the "Energy Shock" will break the resolve of U.S. allies (Australia/EU) before the U.S. blockade breaks the Iranian economy. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Satellite imagery from the last 24 hours confirms CENTCOM is repositioning two additional Carrier Strike Groups and an Amphibious Ready Group toward the Northern Arabian Sea. This contradicts the "deal is close" narrative, suggesting a preparation for a protracted blockade rather than a reopening. |
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03-30-26 spal
As of March 30, 2026, OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) signals and diplomatic cables indicate a state of Active Divergence masked by Diplomatic Theater. The headlines suggest "proximity to a deal," but the underlying structural demands reveal a stalemate designed to persist. |
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03-30-26 spal
PULSAR HELIUM INC. (PSRHF)
1.5800
+0.3400
(+27.42%)
Well I guess I won't be chasing this one ... on watch
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03-30-26 spal
“Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately ‘Open for Business,’ we will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet ‘touched,’” Trump posted Monday on his social media platform.
... No surprises here. |
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03-30-26 ruspan
| Iran's parliament is seriously considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), said Alaoddin Boroujerdi, a member of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. |
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03-30-26 spal
| Now I don't personally approve of any of this ... but that does not affect my analysis of it. |
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03-30-26 spal
You know why the health care system is a HUGE success in the US ... paradoxically ... because it is a HUGE part of GDP. Being a sick fat fuck pays as does dying earlier.
Again I do not make the rules. But this just how it works. |
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03-30-26 spal
Savo you will particularly love this statement ... I dedicate it to you ...
Because the machines are so productive, the main challenge isn’t "full employment" anymore ... it’s "full consumption.
;)) |
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03-30-26 spal
US Fed likely to cut rates 25 bps in both September and December, says Nomura
And Schpal. |
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03-30-26 spal
Labor’s contribution has dropped by 12.4 percentage points since 1960 - a shrinking marginal human cost.
GDP has decoupled from Job Growth ... "Jobless Expansion" is the baseline.
As AGI ) transitions from "generative" to "agentic" in 2026, economists project that growth will be driven by Capital-Deepening (investing in compute/energy) rather than Labor-Extending (hiring people).
I don't make the rules Savo ...
The economy is again like all economies from Rome to now ... a "monkey pump" and a happy rich class and a lot of noise.
"Shadow Basic Common Income" (BCI)
The U.S. has already built a massive, fragmented BCI system through Transfer Payments. It is not called UBI obviously, but the math says otherwise.
In 2025, federal current transfer payments to persons reached $3.63 trillion.
This is roughly 15–18% of all personal income in the U.S.
Do you get it now???
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (2025) effectively "shadow-formalized" this by creating permanent, non-taxable liquidity buffers:
No Tax on Tips/Overtime: This allows the bottom 40% of the workforce to retain a larger share of "consumption tokens" without raising the corporate cost of labor.
"consumption tokens" ... but again we don't say this out load.
The IRS is currently issuing record refund and up to $1,000 extra per household in 2026, acting as a massive liquidity injection to sustain domestic demand.
Which is mostly spent on cheeze whizz and thing like that ...
So no the economy is NOT going to collapse. It is rigged that way.
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03-30-26 spal
| Most jobs in the western developed world are BULLSHIT ... so don't get hung up there ... it has been a government/corporate program to keep most of the fuckers you see around you busy and not cutting each others throats. That is how it always is. |
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03-30-26 spal
The goods and services deficit is falling, not increasing. By producing its own essentials—Energy via Shale/LNG, Food via the Midwest, and High-Tech/AI via the OBBBA capex surge—the U.S. has effectively walled off its domestic economy from global volatility.
Since these critical inputs are not imported, the U.S. is not "importing" the world's inflation. Instead, it is exporting it
Jobs have nothing to do with economic growth these days. Zero. We can discuss what this means. But it has nothing to do with growth of GDP ... nothing. And sure the cost of the government can go up ... spending into the economy and surprise to you is that is what you would expect with universal common income etc. Which already exists if you think about it carefully.
But you have been going on about the US decline for so long it is a reflex and that is fine, I perfectly understand.
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03-30-26 savo
spal.. i do not know who writes all that for you... but it got it backwards... the US has a trade deficit... hence.. as inflation in the rest of the world speeds up the US will import inflation...
the big beautiful bill should be rebranded the big ugly bill... in 2024 the us created 2.4 mm jobs ... in 2025 it created 150k jobs... gdp grew on Q4 25 0.7%... the lowest since covid...
while the dollar revalue 3% against the euro...yields on 10 year US treasuries went from 3.95% at the beginning of the war to 4.4% today...
Regarding the fiscal deficit.. as inflation goes up revenues will go up or will go down in real terms... depending on economic activity.. given the us is in stanflation... my bet is that they will go down in real terms... but the cost of government will go up in real terms because of a) cost of debt b) because of the war and c) because of entitlements and social security...
more deficit in real terms means more debt and more cost of debt.
from wherever you want to look at it the US in deep shit. |
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03-30-26 panasonic
| Amateur, ok tks..I'm more pessimistic in the political front. |
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03-30-26 spal
The OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) accelerates 2026 growth through supply-side deregulation and targeted consumer liquidity. By fast-tracking energy infrastructure via "NEPA Opt-In" fees and slashing royalties to 12.5%, the bill triggers an immediate capex surge in the Permian and Gulf. Simultaneously, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime provides a "disposable income buffer," sustaining domestic consumption.
Domestic inflation is contained via the "WTI Shield." While the U.S. exports refined products at high "War Risk" premiums it maintains a lower price floor for domestic industry.
This WTI-Brent spread ensures U.S. manufacturing costs remain decoupled from global spikes. Furthermore, the Safe Haven effect—capital flooding into the USD—increases the dollar’s purchasing power for non-energy imports, effectively "importing" deflation from rivals whose currencies are collapsing under energy costs. |
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03-30-26 spal
If the deficit is 6% but nominal GDP grows at 8%—driven by the global inflation exported —the real debt burden shrinks.
The U.S. doesn't "import" energy inflation; it exports it. As a net energy exporter, high global prices are a windfall for the US trade balance. U.S. industry utilizes the cheap domestic floor (WTI), while rivals are forced to pay the "War Risk" marked up (Brent).
Tax receipts are nominal. As prices rise, federal revenue surges, offsetting indexed spending. Supported by Shadow Revenue from new maritime fees, the U.S. effectively taxes global trade to fund interest payments while the principal devalues.
The higher Brent prices abroad at absorbed in the profit margins of competitors as they have to keep volumes spinning or employment crashes. |
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03-30-26 amateur
"political outcome for Republicans if can't finish the job"
It should be bad for them, at least in the inflation front.
The long term consequences of a US international blunder might not be perceived domestically, DT would try to sell a Truman Show and the rednecks could buy it. Or not.
Manipulation of masses is a science that escapes me totally.
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03-30-26 savo
i do not think that math works...
because
1) due to the megafiscal deficit US federal debt grows faster inflation...
and
2) energy inflation will inflate import export prices hence the US will import inflation which will translate too into higher government spending.
#deathbyinflationordeathbyfinancialcrisis
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03-30-26 spal
By allowing (or encouraging) the systematic destruction of Russian refining capacity, the U.S. removes millions of barrels of "cheap" diesel and gasoline from the global market.
Result: The global price of energy (Brent) stays high. This forces every country that must import energy to print more of their own currency or spend more of their USD reserves just to keep the lights on. This is forced global inflation.
The U.S. Navy no longer provides "free" security for the global commons. In the Persian Gulf, we have moved to a "Pay-to-Play" model.
Result: If you aren't a preferred U.S. partner, your insurance rates and shipping costs skyrocket. This "Security Premium" is another form of inflation that the U.S. imposes.
By creating global energy inflation, the nominal price of everything rises.
If the U.S. GDP grows from $28 trillion to $40 trillion simply because "everything costs more," the denominator gets huge.
The Numerator (Debt): The $35 trillion debt doesn't grow just because oil is expensive. It is a fixed, legacy contract.
The Result: The Debt-to-GDP ratio drops from 120% to 80% without the U.S. ever having to cut spending or raise taxes.
The U.S. is "taxing" the rest of the world’s energy consumption to pay for its own historical overspending.
As an energy-independent nation with a "Global Navy" bouncer, the U.S. can afford $115 oil because it owns the gas station.
Everyone else is just a customer paying a war-time markup to help the U.S. balance its books.
It is a competitive reset where the U.S. pays back its creditors with "garbage" dollars that have been devalued by the very energy crisis the U.S. is managing. |
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03-30-26 spal
Trump in two places at one ... The world's only Quantum Negotiator.
TRUMP: HOLDING DIRECT AND INDIRECT TALKS WITH IRAN |
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03-30-26 spal
The Trump Uncertainty Principle in action:
TRUMP: BELIEVE WE WILL STRIKE A DEAL WITH THEM FAIRLY SOON || POSSIBLE WE MAY NOT REACH AGREEMENT |
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03-30-26 pillz
TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL MAKE A DEAL WITH THEM
TRUMP ON IRAN: THINK WE HAD REGIME CHANGE
And this: DEALING WITH DIFFERENT PEOPLE IN IRAN’S THIRD REGIME |
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