04-18-26 Merlino
https://x.com/x/status/2045550776756449400
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This veni crow is mainly composed of migrants, people who left the country....meaning almost 100% opposed to chavismo....my guess is that MCM has not as many followers/voters in Veni as she/they claim she has, as she is part of the traditionally privileged minority white class who has always betrayed the general population |
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04-18-26 carib
| meaning: either it remains a protectorate, run at gunpoint, or they need clean elections delivering a pro-business government. |
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04-18-26 carib
| New investment.. requires legally solid long term contracts, enforced "manu militari", if necessary. |
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04-18-26 savo
yes carib.. i saw that... usual PP ...she knows how to play the crowds and has her followers...
but the game is not played at Puerta del Sol...
gladly none of the european presidents that received her changed his IMF and World Bank votes which is what she was asking.
In any case...Trump will have to revise strategy if he wants veni to ramp up production seriously. Licenses are enough for corps to reinvest what they are making in veni... new investments require sanctions to be lifted.
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04-18-26 carib
| Savo: https://x.com/x/status/2045550776756449400 |
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04-18-26 carib
| The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East.(WSJ) |
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04-18-26 savo
leo.. remember greece? the new bonds had a coupon of 3%... started trading at 12... eventually went to par.
A veni at full capacity will be unstoppable... should trade through Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Panama, Colombia
The most recent restructurings had the following haircuts
Sri lanka 28%
Zambia 18%
Ghana 37%
Ukraine 20%
then there were all sort of creative options to recover that...
the point is that my guess of a 50% haircut (given the size of accrued) is a maximum... it will probably be less .. and recent experience shows that creditors do not lose that % irrevocably ... there were clauses to recover that based on economic performance... export prices... tax collection... etc...
So sit and relax.. let the music play...
the only problem I see is the evil psycho... that woman is a curse...
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04-18-26 carib
| how much would PDVsa be worth, if it was called ArAmCo? |
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04-18-26 leopardo
| Yes, Carib, I agree. My feeling however is that, unless there’s a nasty move by Trump, all PDVSA and Venezuelan (VNZ) bonds can still gain another 50%+. |
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04-18-26 spal
pls dont tell VanEck, its between colores only.
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LOL ... only we would understand this degree of cynicism anyway.
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04-18-26 carib
The Trump family’s World Liberty crypto venture faces a backlash after provoking criticism of its governance from one of its largest backers, the crypto tycoon Justin Sun, and taking out a loan tied to its token.
The WLFI token issued by the company, which counts Donald Trump Jr and Eric Trump as co-founders, has fallen nearly 16 per cent over the past month.
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04-18-26 carib
| Leo: I guess the key will be the exit yield.. |
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04-18-26 carib
Panas: I think the iranians, as usual, are bluffing.
I agree with Barnea. |
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04-18-26 victor
what happened to the trade embargo? we are waiting. :-))
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Has anybody looked at how badly the country of Spain is doing. Their financial numbers, despite contributing almost nothing to NATO and their military defense, are absolutely horrendous. Sad to watch!!! |
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04-18-26 victor
pana, you are right.
even though the credibility of iran seems to be at lows. |
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04-18-26 leopardo
Methink that for Vnz 31/22
Pdvsa 22 for example a recovery of 80 is feasable.
40% of claim more or Less. |
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04-18-26 leopardo
Good Carib
Vnzuela already has a lot of debt we do not need much more… |
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04-18-26 carib
La presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, aseguró este viernes que su Gobierno no tiene previsto un programa de endeudamiento tras reanudar las relaciones con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), interrumpidas hace siete años.
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04-18-26 panasonic
Me think fragmentation of power in Iran has to be solved before making any projections.
Building alternatives in the Middle East to transport oil will take more time and money than infrastructure in Veni to extract 5MM barrels a day, pls dont tell VanEck, its between colores only. |
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04-18-26 panasonic
Vic, I wonder what will oil traders say monday?
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/18/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-israel |
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04-18-26 victor
so what is the colores verdict of how iran will end?
regime change in the near future?
somebody said it would be mission failure if no regime change. |
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04-18-26 spal
Israel Strikes Lebanon Less Than an Hour After Trump Says It’s ‘PROHIBITED’ From More Attacks
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So I guess not good listeners?
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04-18-26 spal
| Given the massive supply outage… the U.S. extended the waiver for Russian crude. |
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04-18-26 spal
TRUMP SIGNALS CEASEFIRE UNCERTAINTY WITH IRAN
SAYS HE MAY NOT EXTEND CEASEFIRE NEXT WEEK
WARNS HE COULD RESUME STRIKES IF NEEDED
ADDS “I THINK IT’S GONNA HAPPEN” ON DEAL BEFORE WALKING AWAY
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More quantum behavior from Schrödinger's Trump.
"It might not happen, it could happen, I think its gonna happen" |
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04-18-26 savo
David Austerweil
Deputy Portfolio Manager
David is the Deputy Portfolio Manager for the active Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy and has been at the firm since 2012. Prior to VanEck, David was Vice President at ING Financial Services on the Emerging Markets Credit Trading & Structuring desk David has a MS, Financial Engineering from Columbia University and BA, Computer Science from Columbia University.
good background...
problem... the guy is in Australia...
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04-17-26 panasonic
VanEck's way to say "we need bonds can you pls dump in more decent size"?
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04-17-26 carib
Veny:
“The IMF may forecast an economic reality materially worse than the market prices,” said David Austerweil, emerging-markets deputy portfolio manager at VanEck in New York. “The lack of up to date audited data for investors to value bonds with has allowed the market to price an optimistic scenario for haircut and exit yield. We still believe it’s a compelling investment opportunity, but prices have run far ahead of our near term scenarios.”
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04-17-26 carib
| Let us say the persians were empire builders for thousands of years, whilst the arabs were invaders that locally mainly engaged in camel herding..but the arabs had good maths.. until the XII century.. |
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04-17-26 savo
| that was my impression... |
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04-17-26 spal
| The Iranians have courage and conviction - the Saudis are by and large degenerates. |
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04-17-26 spal
i would like to understand how the murderous barbudos are any worse than the murderous saudies
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They are not. One has oil the other drones.
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04-17-26 savo
| i would like to understand how the murderous barbudos are any worse than the murderous saudies |
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04-17-26 carib
I would say that probably the surviving iranian thugs are.. pragmatists, under a veil of rhetoric.
They have a weak hand, militarily, despite claims of the opposite, so they can contemplate make concessions and taking commitments they will refrain from honouring in the future, if circumstances allow..
or maybe, getting out from the "for of war" maimed, their system will collapse on its own.
who knows? |
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04-17-26 savo
es muy lamentable que el extremismo venezolano se dio a la tarea de visitar capitales de Europa y otros países para tratar de impedir este paso tan importante para nuestra economía
I've been saying for a long time that the psycho is evil.
Never trust a woman that draws on her eyebrows! |
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04-17-26 spal
would you stamp & seal the second sentence with no confirmation of regime change
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No ... and there has been a permanent change in sentiment and judgement about business in that region. Same goes for Dubai which will never be quite the same again. |
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04-17-26 spal
oil traders apparently don't agree with you
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Futures Traders Vic ... likely the most dimwitted ones. |
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04-17-26 victor
pana, that's right.
anyway, it's what traders care about. the short-term. |
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04-17-26 panasonic
Vic, open like "open right now" is not same as "we'll never use it as a weapon again", would you stamp & seal the second sentence with no confirmation of regime change?
Now, if a regime change actually occurred, a historical win goes to DJT and he deserves all the credit. |
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04-17-26 victor
carib
Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed, or is removing, all sea mines! Thank you! President DJT |
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04-17-26 victor
pana, we are never going back to consider Hormuz "open"
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oil traders apparently don't agree with you |
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04-17-26 carib
The report points out how Iran used decentralized forces during the conflict and to close the Strait, with small boats leading the operations to mine the waterway, and without a clear command chain on how to do it.
These make the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's main oil waterways, through which 20% of global consumption passes, almost impossible to transit.
The officials call the mining of the Strait an action carried out "haphazardly," with intelligence indicating that Iran doesn't have a clear idea of where each mine was placed.
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04-17-26 spal
we are never going back to consider Hormuz "open", investments will be made on alternatives.
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Agree - it was just more bloviating by Trump. Insurance and bond markets decide if something is open or not and the risk premia there has changed. |
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04-17-26 panasonic
Vic, imo we are never going back to consider Hormuz "open", investments will be made on alternatives.
A regime change in Iran to a more moderate could be the best outcome, people endured too much pain already, and IRGC has not even collected salary for weeks.
If something like that happens, DT won't receive any credit, but he would have solved a max. level threat in the region. |
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04-17-26 victor
| Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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04-17-26 victor
Hezboolah
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The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you! President DJT |
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04-17-26 carib
| La presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, dispuso el desmantelamiento del denominado “Salón Néstor Kirchner” en el Palacio de Miraflores, un espacio que funcionaba como ámbito de reuniones dentro de la sede del Ejecutivo. |
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04-17-26 spal
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04-17-26 spal
| Delcy Rodríguez - who would have thought she would have been so perfect to run a protectorate? But there you go. Someone free from conflicted motives in the end, who just wanted to be on top one way or another ... what does it matter |
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04-17-26 Merlino
Caracas.- La presidenta encargada de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, denunció este jueves que sectores extremistas del país intentaron obstaculizar la normalización de los vínculos entre Venezuela y el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI).
“Es muy lamentable, tengo que decirlo responsablemente, es muy lamentable que el extremismo venezolano se dio a la tarea de visitar capitales de Europa y otros países para tratar de impedir este paso tan importante para nuestra economía”, manifestó la Mandataria Encargada.
https://www.eluniversal.com/politica/231240/ejecutivo-denuncia-intentos-extremistas-de-boicotear-reanudacion-de-relaciones-venezuelafmi
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MCM in action I think....S of a B |
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04-17-26 Merlino
https://www.elnacional.com/2026/04/el-fmi-reanuda-relaciones-con-venezuela/
El Fondo Monetario Internacional reanuda las relaciones con Venezuela tras siete años de suspensión
La reanudación de vínculos abre la posibilidad de acceder a cooperación, asesoría económica y financiamiento internacional, en un contexto donde Venezuela busca estabilizar su economía |
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