03-02-26 spal
COSCO Tankers opens limit up 15% in Asia.
All others to follow.
And so it begins ... |
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03-01-26 spal
proven military superiority regenerates "exorbitant privilege"..
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Yes ... there is a bit of that. Brings back an old bit of wisdom.
What backs the US dollar?
The Sixth Fleet.
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03-01-26 spal
very poor decision to launch missiles to other ME countries, made clear that a nuclear Iran is out of question.
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They are hard line ideologues ... I fear these more than I do pragmatists. Good point.
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03-01-26 carib
well.. the bearded supporter of the "great satan" theory was killed yesterday.
There are no reports if he was welcomed by 72 virgins or 72 devils.. |
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03-01-26 savo
| an exorbitant privileged that broke the economy of the country. |
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03-01-26 carib
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03-01-26 carib
Later on Sunday, US President Donald Trump announced that the US had "destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships," in a post on Truth Social.
"Some of [the nine ships were] relatively large and important," Trump wrote.
"We are going after the rest - They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea, also!" he added.
"In a different attack, we largely destroyed their Naval Headquarters," he continued.
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03-01-26 carib
| I think, on the other hand, that proven military superiority regenerates "exorbitant privilege".. |
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03-01-26 savo
A major goal of this operation is ...
to use the bombs... so as to have to buy new ones.. and pay the corresponding commissions to the US political class and the military.
The more the US spends the money they do not have... the better for gold and silver... so keep on bombing each other to eternity... |
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03-01-26 carib
The IDF said on Sunday night that it had dropped 2,000 bombs on Iran since Operation Roaring Lion started on Saturday morning.
Air force sources said that the 2,000 bombs in two days was so fast that it was equal to the pace that they had dropped bombs in June's Operation Rising Lion during a six-day period.
A major goal of this operation is to carry out a comprehensive "root canal" of every aspect of the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile apparatus. |
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03-01-26 carib
As far as I could see.. the Burj el Arab is not "on fire".. but a fiberglass beam burned after being hit by debris.
Lights still on. |
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03-01-26 panasonic
Russia killing civilians on daily basis for years already, so their opinion is limited to just that, an opinion....
Oil markets will explode tomorrow, very poor decision to launch missiles to other ME countries, made clear that a nuclear Iran is out of question. |
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03-01-26 spal
| Russia can tolerate a "weakened" Iranian government, but it cannot tolerate the destruction of the Rasht-Astara railway or the Bandar Abbas docks. |
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03-01-26 spal
| We are witnessing a Geopolitical Re-balancing. The US has effectively "bought" the Middle East by "selling" parts of Eastern Europe. Russia gets its "Near Abroad" (Ukraine), and the US gets to dismantle its "Greatest Adversary" (Iran) without a Russian intervention. |
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03-01-26 spal
| If the US has "traded" Ukraine for Iran, it needs Antimony to rebuild the missile stockpiles used in Epic Fury. |
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03-01-26 spal
The intersection of the Iran decapitation and the Ukraine "Grand Bargain" is the most critical "Shadow Trade" in the global macro-environment today.
The "Strategic Red Line" Paradox: While Putin called the killing of Khamenei a "cynical violation of international law" this morning, the Kremlin's response was limited to condolences.
The Bandwidth Constraint: With Russia still heavily committed to the 4th year of the Ukraine war, Moscow lacks the logistical capacity to open a Mediterranean front. Their "Red Line" is not the survival of the Mullahs, but the survival of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)—the rail and ship link to India that bypasses the Suez.
The reading of a "Syrianized" outcome—where a fragmented Iran serves Western interests better than a stable one—aligns with the "New Realism" of the 2026 administration. |
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03-01-26 spal
| As China loses its Iranian "Energy Bridge," it will double down on its own mineral dominance. Your domestic plays in Copper and Antimony become "Strategic Sovereignty" assets that the US military will pay any price to secure. |
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03-01-26 spal
| A fragmented Iran is a "black hole" for the BRICS+ energy corridor. |
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03-01-26 spal
| In the real-world grit of 2026, a stable democracy in Iran is a 20-year project. A "Syrianized" Iran, however, can be achieved in 20 days. |
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03-01-26 spal
| The shift from "Regime Change" to "Regime Choke" (as analysts at the America First Policy Institute are calling it) is the defining strategic pivot of the weekend. As we stand on Sunday, March 1, 2026, the smoke over Tehran hasn't even cleared, but the long-term geopolitical "Syrianization" of Iran is already visible on the horizon. |
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03-01-26 spal
| The Burj Al Arab, an iconic luxury five-star hotel in Dubai, is currently on fire after being struck by a one-way attack drone in the most recent wave of attacks by Iran against the United Arab Emirates. |
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03-01-26 spal
Brent Crude is currently expected to gap up significantly when Asian/London trading begins tonight.
Prediction: Expect an opening tick of $85 - $90/bbl, with a "War-Premium" trajectory toward $115 by mid-week if the IRGC succeeds in mining the Strait.
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US can open Strategic Petroleum Reserve. |
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03-01-26 spal
| Internet traffic in regions like Sistan-Baluchestan has shifted to encrypted satellite signals (Starlink). This suggests the CIA is providing the "Communication Moat" for rebel commanders. |
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03-01-26 victor
US President Donald Trump has several “off ramps” that he can take to end Operation Epic Fury, Trump told Axios on Saturday.
"I can go long and take over the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and tell the Iranians: 'See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding [your nuclear and missile programs]," Trump said.
"In any case, it will take them several years to recover from this attack." |
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03-01-26 victor
| Khamenei's daughter, grandchild, daughter-in-law, and son-in-law were killed in US-Israeli strikes, Iranian state media reported on Sunday. |
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03-01-26 spal
If the Regime Flips Quickly: The Strait of Hormuz could be re-opened in weeks, not months. This would cause a violent "Gap-Down" in tanker rates as the war-risk premium evaporates.
If the IRGC Digs In: We are looking at a Civil War scenario. This is the "Scarcity Supercycle" for your tankers. A prolonged civil war in Iran keeps 3 million barrels of oil per day off the market and keeps the Strait a "No-Go Zone," potentially pushing VLCC rates past $350,000/day.
Next Step: Is to monitor for any reports of "Internet Blackouts" or "Starlink Activations" in Tehran tonight.
This is the classic signal of a "CIA-led Coordination Phase." |
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03-01-26 spal
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03-01-26 spal
Carib - yes - the strategy of the US/ Israel is decapitation and specifically regime change. This does mean that the Iranians need to take the fight to the streets.
On February 24, 2026—just four days ago—the CIA released a rare, high-production Farsi-language appeal across X, YouTube, and Telegram.
The agency needed to confirm the exact GPS coordinates and "Pattern of Life" data for the meetings that took place this morning.
It is highly probable that special activities teams are already on the ground in the Sistan-Baluchestan and Kurdistan provinces—areas already prone to rebellion (CIA / Mossad).
Now we wait for a "previously unknown" group of "Moderate" Iranian military officers (quietly vetted by Langley over the last year) to appear on a video stream claiming to have "secured the capital" for the people.
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03-01-26 carib
SPAL: thanks.
I hope this will not stop until the regime utterly collapses or gives up entirely. |
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03-01-26 spal
Counter-Reaction Watch (The "Top" Signal)
Even in a theater war, the "blow-off top" will occur. Watch for these signals:
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Massive Release: If the Trump administration announces a 1.5M bpd+ release to suppress prices, the "Scarcity Trade" will temporarily cool.
Hormuz "Safety Corridor" Established: If the US Navy successfully minesweeps and establishes a "Destroyer-Escorted" convoy system through the Strait, war-risk premiums will drop 50% in 24 hours.
Refinery "Economic Shutdown": If Brent stays at $130+ for 10 days, Asian refineries (Japan/Korea) will cut runs. Fewer barrels refined = lower demand for tankers. |
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03-01-26 spal
Spot Crude Oil Freight Rates (VLCC)
Close to Exceeding the Historical High = 300,390 USD
Current Price: 218,150.00
Expected to Open with a Significant Increase for Spot Crude Oil Freight Rates (VLCC) Following the War Events Against Iran and the Rise in Marine Insurance Costs |
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03-01-26 spal
Carib - the main success concerning protecting the Straight was the crippling of Oghab-44. This is where they have attack aircraft (that would have been sent after tankers etc) in bunkers deep in the mountains. The runway was greatly impaired and several of the 4 main tunnel doors have been collapsed. This means that Iran is now reduced to a fast diminishing supply of fast boats and mobile batteries to harrass shipping ... and of course the Houthis.
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03-01-26 carib
| Iranian president apparently also killed this morning, according to IRNA. |
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03-01-26 carib
| Larijani apparently survived. |
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03-01-26 carib
| I hope the US will sink anything that floats, coming from Iran in the Hormuz area. |
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03-01-26 carib
| He got what he deserved, even if late in life. |
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03-01-26 victor
Varios medios estatales iraníes están confirmando la muerte del líder supremo de Irán, el ayatoláa Alí Jamenei.
“El líder supremo de Irán ha alcanzado el martirio”, informó el canal estatal IRIB la mañana del domingo. |
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03-01-26 spal
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