10-26-26 savo
Or am I mistaken?
carib..if they force majeure a cash settlement it will not be at the prevailing price for physical gold stored in safe locations...
The reason for a cash settlement will be that reserves at the exchange are below minimums
So who knows what that price will be.
PS: I do not expect a financial Armageddon... I simply expect a financial crisis with higher inflation for longer... as there is too much debt.. too much deficits... to little willingness to correct the imbalances cutting spending and too much underwater debt sitting at US and European banks.
Central banks will continue repressing rates to kick the can forward... which will add to the fire.
Nothing new under the sun. |
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10-26-26 victor
pana, another one who just resigned..
because sanchez took him out of the psoe list of candidates.
and not just anyone.
DELEGADO DEL GOBIERNO EN MADRID.. pana.
sanchez = totally ruthless.
he demands 100% loyalty to him, not to the psoe.
//
El delegado del Gobierno en la Comunidad de Madrid, Francisco Martín Aguirre, ha presentado su dimisión este domingo tras quedarse fuera de las listas del PSOE al Congreso y al Senado para las elecciones del próximo 29 de noviembre, según ha adelantado 'El Pais' |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, jaime bayly's opinion, posted before lula's victory:
//
Bayly cree que si Flavio pierde será por el golpe bajo canallesco y ruin que le dio a Lula en el debate llamándolo “nueve dedos” |
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10-26-26 victor
Comando ConVzla
15m
#Caracas, nos vemos en minutos!
Estamos en Maitana, rumbo a la Valle-Coche a encontrarnos con nuestra gente |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, and the jair negative effect on flavio?
being the son of jair can be negative..
same for keiko, being the daughter of el chino..
she won but only on her FOURTH attempt, and it was by a nose. |
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10-26-26 victor
El senador republicano Rick Scott jugó un papel decisivo en el regreso de María Corina Machado con llamadas al presidente Donald Trump
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10-26-26 spal
| A right-leaning legislature and a familiar, centrist-anchored executive - forcing Lula to govern moderately and seek compromise. |
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10-26-26 carib
| The outcome was determined by voters who abstained in the first round, and opted for the lesser evil in the run-up. |
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10-26-26 carib
| My reading: Brasil voted to the right (check Senate new composition).. but got cold feet when faced with a candidate without any significant experience, no clear qualities.. and unsavoury bedfellows. Trump support was a death kiss for Flavio. Brasileiros opted for balance of powers. Hope the choice proves wise. |
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10-26-26 carib
Practical questions: BOVESPA and BRL levels in a few hours?
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10-26-26 spal
| So much for the wisdom of markets ... |
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10-26-26 spal
How the Pollsters Performed
While major polling firms faced criticism for underestimating conservative turnout in the first round, their runoff modeling performed much better than the prediction market odds:
Statistical Toss-Up Modeling: Major Brazilian polling firms—including Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Gerp—consistently reported a neck-and-neck, statistical tie (generally showing 50–50 or tight 51–49 splits within their margins of error).
The Final Outcome: Rather than the blowout indicated by prediction market odds, the election ended in a tight finish. According to official electoral authority results reported by Al Jazeera and The Washington Post, Lula secured reelection with 51.75% of the vote compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.25%.
By framing the runoff as an unpredictable, high-volatility toss-up rather than a near-certainty for Bolsonaro, traditional pollsters provided a much more accurate picture of the final outcome than the prediction markets. |
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10-26-26 carib
Savo: if you expect financial armageddon coming soon.. you have a point.
Otherwise, if the US$ remains a convertible currency, and my (hypothetical) Gold futures get settled in US$ after GLD prices shoots up (hypothetically).. I can exchange US$ in HK$, or CHF.. and buy bullion in CHF or Singapore..
Or am I mistaken?
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10-26-26 spal
The Prediction Markets' Heavy Miss
Following the first round of voting—where Senator Flávio Bolsonaro unexpectedly finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—prediction markets swung heavily toward a Bolsonaro victory:
Kalshi & Polymarket: In the weeks leading into the runoff, major platforms like Kalshi gave Flávio Bolsonaro up to an 88% probability of winning, while Polymarket priced his victory odds around 86%.
Betting Odds: On the eve of the runoff, sportsbooks and betting exchanges had Lula listed as a long underdog (paying out as high as 5.50-to-1).
The markets essentially treated Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round momentum as a decisive trend, creating an overconfident consensus that proved wrong when the final votes were tallied.
LMAO |
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10-26-26 carib
Victor: 99% is not 100%.
Personally, I am very ok with the outcome.
Right wing parliament, left wing President..
;~) |
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10-26-26 spal
Schpal would like to extend warm congratulations to comrade Lula - Viva Brazil and Viva Bahia.
Lula’s win does not alter Alvopetro’s fundamental investment thesis: a high-margin, low-cost onshore natural gas producer generating strong free cash flow and paying a sustainable dividend backed by a firm state-level off-take contract.
Alvopetro’s sole off-taker, Bahiagás, is owned by the state government of Bahia—which has been continuously governed by Lula’s Workers' Party (PT) for nearly 20 years—ensuring strong local political alignment and off-take reliability.
The administration's federal policy prioritizes expanding domestic natural gas supply to fuel local re-industrialization and fertilizer production in the Northeast, directly supporting Alvopetro's core market.
Petrobras's pause on onshore asset divestments limits new large-scale competitors from rapidly entering the Recôncavo Basin, protecting Alvopetro's established regional market share.
Because 100% of Alvopetro's natural gas is consumed domestically within Brazil, the company is completely insulated from federal crude oil export taxes and trade restrictions.
The long-term Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with Bahiagás is contractually indexed to international commodity benchmarks and inflation, safeguarding profit margins against domestic fiscal or currency shifts.
Viva Lula |
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10-26-26 spal
Or perhaps:
"In politics, death is never final."
— François Mitterrand |
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10-26-26 spal
"A week is a long time in politics."
Harold Wilson |
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10-26-26 victor
carib, what happened to your forecast in brasil?
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10-05-26 carib
Brasil turned clearly to the right. Lula is 99% over.
Question is: what will Bolsonaro jr fiscal policy be? |
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10-26-26 spal
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10-25-26 savo
While Democratic leaders have largely avoided discussing another impeachment of President Donald Trump, they have openly embraced efforts to remove Hegseth.
"One of the first things we're going to do in the majority, we're going to run Pete Hegseth out of town," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., declared during a Pennsylvania rally earlier this month.
hopefully out of town and into the darkest, wettest and coldest Alaskan prison |
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10-25-26 savo
carib.. on the gold futures.. is precisely what wealthy family offices do not want... futures are "papelitos" created by wall street under US or UK law... ie. under no law...
i am not a wealthy family office... but these are purchases for eternity outside put out of reach from corrupted exchanges which change the rules of the game every time the market goes up
in any case fiat is just a 50 years failed experiment... i do not know what comes next... but gold in a CH vault is real... gold at an exchange is not... they may decide to force settle in US$ claiming the gold is unavailable. |
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10-25-26 savo
| carib.. i am thinking a year or two... |
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10-25-26 carib
| Brasil elections turning into a carnival, with judges deciding to extend voting hours too close to the deadline. in practice it does not work. Big mess coming, maybe. |
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10-25-26 carib
Putinists lose Serbia elections.
Good news, for once. |
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10-25-26 carib
Savo: I think presidents should be middle aged persons, not very old chaps.
It is a very stressful job. |
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10-25-26 carib
Victor. the house is almost certainly lost for the GOP.
the only relevant electoral issue, IMHO.. is the senate control.
MAGA is a cult, not a party, IMHO. |
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10-25-26 savo
| nothing will happen to her victor.. she will be president one day...but not for now... she is 59... plenty of time.. |
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10-25-26 victor
carib, i understand, except that those gop guys, that need votes badly, were not the ones pressing the dt admin..
funny way to show it.
it's also smart for her to return right before the midterms.
to hold the dt admin accountable in case something happens to her, right before midterms. |
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10-25-26 carib
In Texas, the Bush voted Talarico.
I guess that says it all. |
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10-25-26 carib
| BTW: IMHO the GOP is in hibernation, replaced by Trump tribe. |
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10-25-26 carib
Victor: GOP wants more votes, because they need them badly.
simple, IMHO, but probably late. |
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10-25-26 victor
| carib, if it were up to the gop, she probably wouldn't be back.. |
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10-25-26 victor
carib, looks like she is back thanks to diaz balart, maria elvira and gimenez..
//
El diario español ABC informó que María Corina Machado había ingresado a Venezuela desde Colombia en medio de un operativo diplomática internacional y tras casi nueve intentos fallidos de regreso. Según el corresponsal David Alandete, esta fue la segunda vez que la líder de la democracia intentó ingresar a Venezuela desde Colombia, la primera vez fue documentada por NTN24. Fuentes consultadas por el diario, aseguraron que había división en la administración Trump sobre el regreso de la Nobel de Paz y que fue decisiva la presión de congresistas republicanos de Florida. |
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10-25-26 carib
| Victor: I am referring to the GOP, not individual candidates.. |
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10-25-26 victor
carib, gimenez has nothing to worry about in fl-28..
it's maria elvira who was a bit worried in fl-27. |
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10-25-26 carib
| Looks like US republicans want veny votes back in midterm... |
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10-25-26 victor
Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez
My friend & Nobel Peace Prize Winner María Corina Machado has returned to Venezuela.
I want to make this very clear: From the U.S. Congress, I hold Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez, Diosdado Cabello, Padrino López, and González López directly responsible for any harm that may come to her.
If these corrupt thugs continue with the threats, they will end up pulverized like the Castro regime henchmen who guarded Maduro.
Are we clear? |
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10-25-26 victor
Secretary Marco Rubio
The conditions allowing for the safe return of Ms. Machado to Venezuela is the direct result of the U.S. supported reconciliation talks which has already seen hundreds of political prisoners freed and hundreds of political opposition figures return from exile.
The United States expects the freedoms of all sectors of Venezuelan politics to continue to be respected. Likewise, we expect all political actors to support these talks which represent the best chance Venezuela has had in thirty years to peacefully achieve not just a free and fair election but an enduring democracy. |
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10-25-26 victor
carib, and savo is on cloud nine. :-))
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10-25-26 carib
Victor beat me with the news posting..
;-) |
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10-25-26 victor
Edmundo González
¡Venezuela! Me emociona muchísimo anunciarles que nuestra líder, mi querida Maria Corina, está en territorio venezolano.
Hoy es un día muy importante para los venezolanos. Nuestra voz soberana retorna con ella para liderar y encaminar este proceso!
Muy pronto estaré con ustedes y con ella para que nuestro país avance verdaderamente hacia la libertad
Ustedes lo saben, esto es hasta el final. |
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10-25-26 victor
Comando ConVzla
@MariaCorinaYA llega a la Iglesia de Santa Rosa, en #Lara, para agradecer a la Divina Pastora por su regreso a Venezuela, luego de diez meses fuera del país.
¡Con fe y de la mano de Dios, se reencuentra con los venezolanos y su tierra!
Bienvenida, @MariaCorinaYA, tu lugar y tu tarea es aquí, con tu gente. |
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10-25-26 victor
| La dirigente opositora, premio Nobel de la Paz, se encuentra ya en territorio venezolano y tiene previsto reaparecer públicamente en el santuario de la Divina Pastora |
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10-25-26 victor
| María Corina Machado regresa a Venezuela: «Estoy aquí. Con ustedes» |
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10-25-26 victor
| and brasil's election today, is a referendum on lula. |
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10-25-26 victor
| pana, the elections in israel are a referendum on netanyahu. |
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10-25-26 victor
pana, majority of US voters are "center"
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this election in the usa is a referendum on dt..
just like the elections in spain are a referendum on sanchez. |
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10-25-26 spal
| Carib - the story being what? Not following you? |
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10-25-26 carib
Data fact: the number of yemeni citizens is much higher than that of saudi citizens, apparently, despite the relative size of the respective territories.
Saudi GDP per capita is officially about 50 times bigger, in PPP terms, than the Yemeni analog figure.
Let us not even compare the number of oil barrels per capita.
I guess data has a story to tell..
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10-25-26 carib
| Savo: but is it not much cheaper buying gold futures? |
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10-25-26 panasonic
| Savo, true but is not exclusive to the super-rich. |
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10-25-26 savo
pana.. two unconnected markets...
in one a group demented momentum traders and their algos... like MMA fighters... in a cage ... hitting and kicking each other around interest rates... oil prices... wars .. houtis... whatever..
and a different very calm market... where normal people... who behave normally... go about their normal family lives n... buy gold every month in bars form.. store it in a secure vault in Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong...etc,, and wait for the next month to buy some more... gold that never sees again the light of the day...
these people rejoice every time the MMA fighters push the price down... as they buy their monthly allocation cheaper...
they do not plan to sell.... ever... as gold will go as is to the next generation... |
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10-25-26 panasonic
Vic, I've been posting abt. simple fact that majority of US voters are "center", seems to me Bush family move is part of necessary steps to cross the aisles and send minorities back to their boxes.
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10-25-26 panasonic
Savo 'I do not think there are family vault"
My guess also, so using 3rd parties is the traditional way, no need to be super rich to have it. |
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10-25-26 victor
pana.. first gwb's daughter, barbara.. now neil.
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Bush dynasty delivers another blow to GOP in Texas Senate battle as family member breaks ranks
The son of George HW Bush and brother of George W Bush publicly backed Talarico over Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race
Another member of the Bush family dynasty, Neil Bush, is throwing his weight behind Texas Democratic Senate hopeful James Talarico, saying he voted against a political style he believes has "damaged our country."
"I have never posted a political message on Facebook, not wanting to offend friends whose views may be very different than mine. I'm breaking that tradition because I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate," Neil Bush wrote on Facebook Tuesday.
"My vote was motivated by two things: deep concern about Ken Paxton's record and genuine admiration for the character and principles I see in James Talarico."
Bush, the son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush, broke with his family's longstanding Republican political tradition in backing the Democrat.
Former President George W. Bush has maintained friendly relationships with Democratic former presidents, but his relationship with President Donald Trump has been strained since the 2016 Republican presidential primary, when Trump repeatedly attacked his brother Jeb Bush and mocked their mother, former first lady Barbara Bush.
"I believe Donald Trump and those who have enabled him have done enormous damage to the Republican Party. I worry about a political culture in which loyalty to an individual takes precedence over loyalty to principle, and where those who hold power begin to believe they are no longer accountable," Neil Bush added.
"But my vote today was about much more than opposition to Ken Paxton."
Neil is the second member of the Bush family to recently throw his support behind Talarico. Barbara Bush, daughter of former President George W. Bush, contributed $2,500 on Sept. 23 to Lone Star Rising PAC, a super PAC supporting the Democrat, according to federal campaign finance records reviewed by Fox News Digital.
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10-25-26 spal
Correction - Taiz is in Yemen.
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10-25-26 spal
| Holding choke points isolates over 1 million residents in Taiz while pinning down thousands of Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and Giant Brigades troops, without requiring the Houthis to commit high-cost infantry assaults into urban centers. |
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10-25-26 spal
| Note: a total blockade that severs critical supply corridors is functionally equivalent to an invasion. |
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10-25-26 spal
| While the conflict has a heavy cross-border dimension, it is important to distinguish between ground control inside Yemen versus operations along the Saudi border:No Active Ground Invasion / Territorial Occupation: Houthi forces are not executing a ground invasion or occupying territorial ground inside Saudi Arabia.Nature of Cross-Border Attacks: The conflict along the Saudi-Yemeni border (affecting Saudi provinces like Jizan, Najran, and Asir) primarily consists of long-range ballistic missile launches, explosive drone swarms, and cross-border artillery or raiding skirmishes. Focus of Ground Operations: The Houthis' primary ground forces, siege tactics, and territorial ambitions remain concentrated inside Yemen's borders (e.g., Taiz, Marib, and Hodeidah), rather than establishing permanent ground footholds inside Saudi territory. |
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10-25-26 spal
Taiz residents struggle to access basic resources, such as gas and water, as the Houthi-imposed sieged on their city has caused severe shortages.
===
Meanwhile and invasion of Saudi Arabia is being prosecuted. Taiz is a mountain town (actually a rather nice one). |
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10-25-26 spal
El Presidente Nayib Bukele descartó que los cuerpos encontrados pertenezcan a los cuatro técnicos de aviación secuestrados por las pandillas en Haití.
So maybe not, but Bukele will not be happy if he can't get his people out. |
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10-25-26 spal
FirstSquawk's post accurately relays a New York Times report, confirmed by Reuters on October 24, 2026, that bodies believed to be four Salvadoran soldiers missing after a gang ambush in Haiti were found badly burned outside Port-au-Prince.
The soldiers, aviation technicians in the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, were ambushed on October 19 while returning from a market in a gang-controlled area near the capital, marking the mission's first major casualties since deployment.
President Nayib Bukele had publicly warned Haitian gangs and initiated a rescue operation, with the remains handed over to a Salvadoran military team at the international airport. |
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