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Last 50 Postings | Last 100 Postings


03-03-26  victor

Saudi Arabia says US Embassy in Riyadh attacked by two drones, causing a 'limited fire'

03-03-26  savo

under Israeli orders

Trump Vows ‘Whatever It Takes’ on Iran as Conflict Widens




03-02-26  carib

Qatar shoots down two Iranian Su-24 fighter jets over airspace as Gulf states suffer Iran strikes

I did not know Iran still had some aircraft that could fly..

03-02-26  carib

Savo: I do not think countries should bomb any neighbour they dislike. But I do think that the ayatollahs should not be allowed to have nukes. That implies that either they give up for real, or their regime should be annihilated.I hope one of the two outcomes in achieved, preferably the second.

03-02-26  pillz

if some colores are interested in Iron Beam laser ..

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-888515

03-02-26  pillz

No longer a “Conspiracy Theory”

Israel just used a Directed Energy Weapon (DEWs)

“Israel used their high-powered laser weapon, the ‘Iron Beam’”

During Biden’s term the media worked relentlessly to Fact Check these weapons as conspiracy theories

https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2028305506511782343?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2028305506511782343%7Ctwgr%5Eba4753c066afd27f969bfaa7510e50394f39cc78%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Fdefense-news%2Farticle-888515

03-02-26  savo

carib.. i congratulate Trump too on veni... after 8 years of senseless sanctions started by Obama and augmented by him in his first presidency...

As for Iran... i do not like the ayatollahs as i do not like any muslim regime... but still do not know why Trump is madly bombing Iran.

03-02-26  spal

New position NAT ... will catch up with the rest of the fleet.

Shipping rate outlook is higher for longer ...

03-02-26  spal




Larry Ellison: AI Models Becoming Interchangeable Commodities

03-02-26  carib

Drone shares doing fine, for good reasons.

03-02-26  carib

Flying to the USA in two days, hopefully no problem.

03-02-26  carib

Savo: I only have the choice to be pragmatic.
I am not a US person.
I disagree with MAGA theories, but I congratulate Trump on Veny and Iran.(which are actually not at all MAGA aligned).
I wish the EU grew cojones of her own, but I have no available instrument to make that happen.

03-02-26  leopardo

Sooner or later they will recover Carib

03-02-26  carib

PDVsa bonds down 3/8ths of a point

03-02-26  savo

that maniac belongs in a loonie house.

03-02-26  spal

Trump tells CNN the "big wave" is yet to come in war with Iran

03-02-26  pillz

WS is now in green ...

03-02-26  savo

European fools end up paying the price of US follies.

03-02-26  savo

Qatar stopped production of liquefied natural gas after attacks by Iranian drones.

About 20% of global LNG exports come from the Persian Gulf, primarily Qatar, and are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.

European natural gas futures soared after the shutdown.

Iran has launched missiles at U.S. allies across the Gulf in retaliation for massive strikes by the U.S. and Israel that killed its head of state, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

03-02-26  savo

Treasuries Sink as Oil Jump Stokes Inflation Fears

can't go to war if your country is broke.

03-02-26  pillz

US markets have opened lower, following declines across Asia and Europe. But defying the trend was Israel.

The Tel Aviv 35 index rose almost 4% to a record on Monday, the first day of trading after Israel and the US began attacks on Iran. It’s among the best performing markets this year.

The Israel shekel jumped about 1.5% and is the only major world currency to appreciate against the dollar.

03-02-26  panasonic

No reaction in pdvsa bonds yet?

03-02-26  spal

Russia remains largely silent, but the targeting of the Bandar Abbas region (the INSTC anchor) remains their "Red Line." If this is crossed, Moscow’s neutrality is likely over.

03-02-26  spal

The IDF is currently weighing a ground invasion of Lebanon

03-02-26  spal

Factors Continuing the Trend:

The "Shadow Fleet" Isolation: 27% of the global fleet is now dedicated to sanctioned trades (Russia/Iran/Venezuela), meaning they cannot "swing" back to help Western routes.

Fleet Age: 44% of VLCCs are over 15 years old. Vetting standards at major ports mean these ships are increasingly ineligible for the most profitable "Blue Chip" routes.

03-02-26  spal

Entity-Specific Outlook

DHT Holdings (DHT): The Scalpel. As a VLCC pure-play with a modern fleet, DHT has the highest torque to the $200k/day spot rates. Their recent charters at $90k–$105k/day provide a massive cash-flow floor.

Frontline (FRO): The Dividend King. With the $1.03/share quarterly dividend (442% increase) and 92% of VLCC days already booked at $107,100/day, FRO is essentially a "Cash Harvest" vehicle.

International Seaways (INSW): The Defensive Pivot. Their diversified fleet (VLCCs + MR Product Tankers) protects you if crude flows stabilize but refined product demand (gasoline/diesel) spikes due to detour-related shortages.

TORM (TRMD): The Clean Specialist. Benefiting from the "refinery gap." As Gulf refineries face operational risks, refined products must be shipped from further away (India/US), making TORM’s MR fleet essential.

03-02-26  spal

Tanker Rate Analysis: The "Hormuz Vertical"

The rate environment is currently defined by a "One-Way Flow Out" from the Persian Gulf and a total re-routing of global oil logistics.

VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers): Rates for the Middle East Gulf-to-China (TD3C) route have breached the $200,000/day threshold—a 440% YoY increase.

Suezmax & Aframax: These "smaller" vessels are seeing even more violent price action as they are utilized for the flexible detours. Black Sea-to-Med Suezmax rates are now above $140,000/day.

The Ton-Mile Trap: By detouring around the Cape of Good Hope, a round trip from the Gulf to Europe now takes 14–20 days longer. This effectively removes ~20% of the world’s available tanker capacity without a single ship being sunk.

03-02-26  spal

Gold has decisively cleared the psychological barrier, hitting $5,400/oz this morning.

These 2 are my gold plays:

Aris Mining (ARIS) - Colombia base: Successfully uplisted to the NYSE (ticker: ARIS) on Feb 19. With gold at $5,400, Aris is entering a "Cash Harvest" phase. Having beaten 2025 guidance by 22%, the company is now fully funded for its Marmato expansion, targeting 500,000 oz/year.

K92 Mining (KNTNF) - New Guinea base: Just reported record annual results. With an AISC of $1,619/oz and gold at $5,400, their profit margin exceeds $3,700/oz. The 93% increase in ore processing capacity ensures they are the highest-torque junior on your list.

Both controlled from Canada.

03-02-26  spal

3 US warplanes shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses, pilots bail out in friendly fire incident, CENTCOM says

===

Somebody f_tcked up.

03-02-26  spal

Regarding Carib...as a master of disguise..

===

LOL

03-02-26  spal

This demonstrates that these hard assets are the true hard currency during this extraordinary period.”


Yes.

03-02-26  savo

spal.. the fundamental point...is that US$ assets are in a secular bear market when measured in real money...and by real money i mean the only money that existed until a bunch of clever guys decided to go fiat in the early 70s.

For somebody expert in stock picking like yourself... it may not be important... for the common mortal like myself.. it is very important to know if i am making money or not... and for that I need a parameter.

Regarding Carib...as a master of disguise... defends the US but invests mostly outside the US$.


03-02-26  pillz

Provisional rates to hire a tanker to carry oil from the Middle East to China have more than doubled since Friday due to the war in the Middle East and an increasingly tight supply of vessels.

A Suezmax that can hold as much as 1 million barrels of crude was fixed on the route at a rate of 525 industry standard Worldscale points, according to shipbrokers. That compares with 225 points on Friday and WS50 at the start of the year.

The industry uses so-called Worldscale rates as a way to easily calculate both vessel earnings and per-barrel freight costs across thousands of trade routes.

The widening war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is turbocharging tanker costs, which had already been rising on the growing threat of a conflict. The price moves are being exacerbated by a concentration of supertanker ownership, after South Korean shipper Sinokor Merchant Marine went on a very-large crude carrier buying spree in recent months.

Voyages on the Middle East to China route are normally agreed on based on tonnage available on a VLCC that can carry as much as 2 million barrels.

03-02-26  pillz

Oil Tanker Rates Skyrocket on Key Middle East-to-China Route

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/oil-tanker-rates-skyrocket-on-key-middle-east-to-china-route

03-02-26  pillz

“Precious metals, oil and commodities are rising despite the dollar’s rebound, even though they are priced in US dollars. This demonstrates that these hard assets are the true hard currency during this extraordinary period.”

03-02-26  spal

1 * (1+r)^n

is by definition going to be a shit ton larger than 1 as n grows ... subject to r.

This is all you are saying.

We all know this.

03-02-26  spal

Savo ... dollars are my denominator ... your example fails as you are applying a compounding rate to a monetary denominator.

Anyone with any sense has those "dollars" invested and mostly (if they are smart) at higher rates than you compound assumption.

I don't think you understand your own example.

03-02-26  savo

spal.. keep hoarding dollars backed by your sixth fleet.. that i keep hoarding gold

as time passes you will need more dollars to buy the same goods.. and i will need less gold..


03-02-26  spal

Carib made an excellent point today:

I think, on the other hand, that proven military superiority regenerates "exorbitant privilege"..

If you don't see the set back BRICS took today then again I can't help you.

03-02-26  spal

or that people want gold and silver

===

A mere flight to safety ... always has been and always will be. It is NOT an investment. It is a speculation.

I hold it for speculative purposes only.

03-02-26  spal

Savo - you and I are at cross purposes.

If you don't understand that power comes out of the barrel of a gun I can't help you.

03-02-26  spal

Savo ... why don't you just start you deflationary series with Antediluvian if it makes you feel like what you are saying is important?

Gold is a speculative asset.
Dollars are a denominator.

Compound interest if taken over a long time can move the earth. Ask Einstein. Albert Einstein is widely credited with calling compound interest the "eighth wonder of the world".

The idea is to find investments in the meantime.

Nothing else matters in this biz.

03-02-26  savo

so what

what part you do not understand?...

that people do not want the backing of the sixth fleet which basically means more money printing... or that people want gold and silver?

03-02-26  spal

nobody wants the sixth fleet.

===

So what?

03-02-26  spal

Germany, France, and the UK are ready to take defensive action against Iran.

03-02-26  savo

The Sixth Fleet.

exactly... problem... nobody wants the sixth fleet... or the US$.. people want gold and silver...

as an example... when the fed was created in december 1913 and ounce of gold costed 20 dollars... now 5200.

so much for the sixth fleet...or the Fed.


03-02-26  spal

Besides Tankers - holding gold, Antimony, Copper, Rare Earth Processing Capacity (in the US), Data center and Health Care (aged folks) REITS, and CRS.

In a 2026 economy where AI commoditizes software, Carpenter Technology (CRS) stands as a resilient "Physical Moat" play, leveraging irreplaceable metallurgy for global security hardware. With aerospace demand surging—driven by U.S. Air Force's 25% B-21 Raider production acceleration for 2027 deliveries—CRS benefits as a primary supplier of high-temperature superalloys for engines like LEAP/GTF and military platforms. Record Q2 FY26 results underscore operating leverage: SAO margins hit 33.1% (16th straight increase), with FY26 adjusted FCF projected at least $280M and operating income raised to $680-700M. Physical scarcity amplifies pricing power; VIM capacity bottlenecks persist amid global superalloy shortages, with no digital alternatives for hypersonic warfare or nuclear SMRs. Trading near $400/share, CRS is re-rating from cyclical to strategic asset, supported by decade-long backlogs and raw material volatility favoring incumbents. Risks include geopolitical delays, but balanced capital allocation (e.g., $183M buybacks) and brownfield expansions position CRS for sustained growth. Strong Buy on volume uptick; $400 floor, targeting $600 as aerospace ramps.

Tankers are my largest position.


03-02-26  savo

carib.. no doubt.. 72 devils... the same 72 devils that are waiting for the US government and the EU commission.

03-02-26  spal

COSCO Tankers opens limit up 15% in Asia.

All others to follow.

And so it begins ...

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