02-27-26 spal
Antimony Index
https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/antimony-price-index/
I am likely to increase my PPTA position. |
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02-26-26 spal
For DHT Holdings (DHT), TORM’s guidance acts as a structural validation of the current crude cycle. While TORM operates in refined products, the read-through for your VLCC position is significant for three reasons:
Supply Tightness: TORM is fixing its LR2 fleet at nearly $45,000/day for Q1. When product rates are this high, these "swing" tankers stay in the clean trade and do not compete for crude cargoes. This keeps the global VLCC supply even tighter for DHT.
Dividend Security: TORM’s aggressive 82% payout ratio ($0.70 dividend) sets a sector-wide benchmark. It confirms that the $0.41 dividend you received today is part of a sustainable, high-yield trend across the tanker complex, rather than a temporary anomaly.
Structural Floor: TORM’s 2026 guidance—projecting earnings that could rival or beat record 2024 levels—effectively kills the "2026 normalization" bear case. It proves that the Geneva impasse and the ongoing vessel seizures are creating a permanent, profitable shift in global trade routes.
In short, TORM just confirmed that the "Safety Premium" you are tracking is not a spike, but a structural floor for your entire tanker portfolio. |
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02-26-26 spal
VLCC Spot Rates: The $200k Ceiling Breaks
The $170k/day floor has been decisively breached. Current spot rates are now comfortably in excess of $200,000/day.
Notable Fix: A Zodiac Maritime VLCC (Red Nova) was reportedly fixed out of Brazil at a record $214,000/day for a voyage to South Korea.
TC Rumors: Rumors are circulating of a one-year time charter deal at $135,000/day, a massive jump from previous deals at $110k, signaling that charterers expect this "super cycle" to have long-term legs.
Sentiment Shifts: FRO & DHT
Frontline (FRO): All eyes are on tomorrow's earnings report (Feb 27). Analysts project an EPS of $1.02. The stock hit a new 52-week high this week, with sentiment heavily bullish ahead of the call.
DHT Holdings (DHT): Momentum remains strong following the high-rate time charter deals for the DHT Taiga and DHT Opal. The stock has seen a nearly 27% return over the last 30 days.
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I sold a third of my holdings of FRO / DHT in the last 10 minutes of trading prior to tomorrow's earnings call for FRO.
I expect FRO's earnings to be strong and for guidance to be very strong.
I will continue to play the tanker co's, but with tighter stops. Rates are now at historic levels. |
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02-26-26 spal
PPTA
PERPETUA RES CORP
35.67 (+7.89%)
Will add on dips.
Antimony play - a strategic mineral for the US. Co is sponsored by US Military - project is of national security interest. I don't think the significance has fully dawned on the market yet.
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02-26-26 carib
Senior advisors to US President Donald Trump would prefer if Israel struck Iran first, believing that such a move would provide better optics and help muster voter support for a US strike, Politico reported on Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the discussions.
“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” the sources told Politico.
The motivation behind the idea centers on Iran’s retaliation, the sources claimed, as “more Americans would stomach a war with Iran if the United States or an ally were attacked first.” |
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02-26-26 carib
Rubio at CARICOM summit:
Rubio said that there is still a long way to go in Venezuela and Washington is committed to making it work.
“We have reopened our embassy in Caracas, where we have an excellent chargé who’s on the ground, along with other government officials, and we intend to continue to build on that.
“Now, we believe strongly — and I think all of you would share this view — that ultimately, in order for them to take the next step to truly develop that country and to truly benefit from that country’s riches for the benefit of their people, they will need the legitimacy of democratic — fair, democratic elections.
“But our initial priority in the aftermath of Maduro’s capture was to ensure that there wasn’t instability, that there wasn’t mass migration, that there wasn’t spillover violence, and we believe we have achieved that.”
He said Venezuela is in the process from going from that phase of stability to a phase of recovery, adding that the South American country needs to recover from a lot of things, including deep, internal fractures, but also some dysfunction that existed in their economic systems.
“I say all this to you because ultimately, we do believe that a prosperous, free Venezuela who’s governed by a legitimate government who has the interests of their people in mind could also be an extraordinary partner and asset to many of the countries represented here today in terms of energy needs and the like, and also one less source of instability in the region.
“So, we expect to work very closely with all of you on that topic as well to the extent possible, and I think it’s related to the topic of security”. |
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02-26-26 carib
I think PT might be right on mortgage based real estate.
with lower incomes and higher rates.. it might not do so well.
But ultra high quality in good jurisdictions might hold value.. because of no shortage of wealthy people with AI.
so far, chip makers are doing very fine: Nvda, TSMC, ASLM, Samsung. Hynix, AMD. But current prices already embed lots of optimism.. |
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02-26-26 spal
Joeri
@joeriwestland
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8h
I see a lot of discussion on #Tankers about "Taking gains" "top must be close" etc etc...
Lol , don't sell, but add, we are in for multiple insane years I think.
1yr VLCC charters at $135k/day are insane... 👇👇👇
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Correct |
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02-26-26 spal
Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence
Goldy is reading colores |
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02-26-26 spal
PPTA
PERPETUA RES CORP
Position started - looking to add.
Gold co ... but big Antimony upside. US Military has invested. John Paulson isa large investor. EXIM bank is preparing a large loan. |
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02-26-26 pillz
Goldman Sachs has created a basket of stocks that would not be vulnerable to the rise of AI. Those HALO players - an acronym that the American investment bank launched at the same time - also include European players such as ASML.
Guillaume Jaisson, Goldman Sachs' Europe strategist, launched the stock market acronym HALO, which stands for 'Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence', in a recent report. "In our HALO basket are assets that can only be replicated at high cost and that are less susceptible to technological obsolescence or obsolescence," Jaisson explains. |
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02-26-26 spal
PLD ... REIT swinging up.
Prologis (PLD) is transitioning from a traditional warehouse giant into a Digital Infrastructure Powerhouse. As of early 2026, the case for PLD rests on its pivot to the "Real Asset" bottleneck of the AI era: Power and Land.
PLD has committed to a $25B–$30B data center expansion, with 40% of its 2026 development starts ($4B–$5B total) now dedicated to data centers. This isn't just a "warehouse" play; it’s a direct play on the hyperscaler (Amazon/Google/Microsoft) need for site-specific energy solutions |
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02-26-26 carib
| Uruguay reforming its tax system for incoming wealthy people in unfavourable terms. |
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02-26-26 carib
Samsung Electronics @218.000 won.
Used to be 50.000 a year ago..
wow! |
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02-26-26 spal
| CRS - directionally right - fortress America schtock |
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02-26-26 spal
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02-26-26 savo
| spal.. i ll do the analysis if you remind me the names you are investing in.. i am curious to know if my theory is correct.. will report either way |
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02-26-26 spal
if you plot a chart of any gold co versus any of my tanker plays you will find tankers out performed.
Last 3 months. |
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02-26-26 spal
| Savo - I will trade anything that moves ... if you plot a chart of any gold co versus any of my tanker plays you will find tankers out performed. Over that time I trades in and out of a bunch of metal cos ... I have added onto a couple of Gold miner positions in recent days and will of course sell them if they underperform. My activity is week by week ... others will definitely not see things through the same prism. Just treat anything I say as "that could be interesting" or not ... right now. |
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02-26-26 spal
Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA) Stock
On watch. Antimony play ... working out how to enter.
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02-26-26 spal
| Last I checked Hayek was not sending me checks. |
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02-26-26 spal
| Savo - I have made 30% on my portfolio last 3 months ... mostly tankers. That is all I look at. |
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02-26-26 savo
spal... irrespective of the compliant fleet vs non compliant, india, veni..etc...... has your AI considered that dollar prices do not mean much these days... if commodity prices go up in fiat currencies... how can shipping prices not follow? how are ships made?... mostly with commodities i guess...
How have shipping rates evolved, let's say over the last 24 months in gold terms... or copper for example?
could we be not seeing the forest for the trees? |
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02-26-26 spal
The India-Venezuela "Mainstream" Pivot
India's Reliance Industries and BPCL have officially moved away from the "Dark Fleet" for Venezuelan imports.
The Logic: Following the U.S. Navy's boarding of the Bertha (#10), India has pivoted to using large, compliant VLCCs (like the Nissos Kea and Nissos Kythnos) to move Venezuelan crude.
The Impact: One VLCC carries 2 million barrels. By moving Venezuelan oil into the "white" market, India is sucking even more tonnage out of the compliant pool used by DHT and Frontline, creating a permanent supply deficit for other buyers. |
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02-26-26 spal
The market is currently being squeezed by two massive entities:
Bahri’s Chartering Surge: Saudi Arabia’s state shipper has provisionally booked at least 5 VLCCs at rates above $200,000/day. This is a strategic move to ensure Saudi crude reaches Asia (India/China) as their March loading program expands by nearly 20% (to ~57M barrels).
Sinokor’s Buying Spree: Sinokor Merchant Marine now controls an estimated 24% of the global compliant spot fleet. Their acquisition of the Trikwong Venture (2012-built) for $70M (Feb 13) and their ongoing withholding of tonnage are the primary reasons rates are "gapping" by $10k+ in a single day.
Navios (NMM) Verification: Confirmed. Navios has ordered 4 VLCCs at $120M each. These are "eco-vessels" with scrubbers, set for delivery starting in late 2026. This verifies that major owners believe these high rates are a multi-year phenomenon, not a one-week spike. |
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02-26-26 spal
From my AI.
The tanker market has shifted from a "super-cycle" into a historic squeeze. The data you provided, corroborated by market activity as of Feb 25, 2026, confirms that we have moved beyond a mere "rate spike" into a structural re-ordering of global oil flows.
The most significant update is the $200,000/day barrier break, driven not just by fear, but by a massive physical deficit of ships as Saudi Arabia (Bahri) and South Korea (Sinokor) aggressively corner the available tonnage. |
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