09-13-26 carib
Savo: AI might well be deflationary.
personally, 2% or 3% are both OK. |
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09-13-26 carib
La firma Ecoanalítica estima que Venezuela necesitaría una quita de entre 50% y 60% para que su deuda externa sea sostenible, según explicó Alejandro Grisanti, director socio-fundador de la consultora.
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09-13-26 spal
If this transaction occurs as outlined:
Instant Option-Value Monetization: Corentyne is currently carried on Frontera’s balance sheet at near-zero value due to regulatory uncertainty surrounding the license expiry.
Stock Reaction: A formal settlement and data-sale announcement with a major player like TotalEnergies would instantly add $2.50 to $4.00+ CAD per share in pure non-dilutive asset value to FEC.TO, pushing the equity decisively into the $12.50 – $14.50 CAD range.
Voodoo is my biz ... |
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09-13-26 spal
Patrick Pouyanné (TotalEnergies CEO) and Gabriel de Alba (Managing Director at Catalyst / Chairman of Frontera) operate with highly compatible transactional mentalities:
Pouyanné’s Pragmatism: TotalEnergies routinely navigates complex, shadow-tripartite political arrangements across West Africa and Latin America. Pouyanné cares about uninhibited, low-breakeven barrels. Paying a small cash transaction fee (e.g., $150M–$300M) to Catalyst/Frontera to purchase proprietary Kawa/Wei seismic data and secure a full legal release to clear the JOA debt liens is rounding error on a $10B+ development budget.
De Alba’s Exit Engine: De Alba is a private equity restructuring architect. He knows Frontera does not have the balance sheet to fund an $8B–$10B standalone deepwater development. Selling the data rights, clearing the liens, and exiting with a clean cash payout (or overriding royalty interest) allows him to distribute another massive special capital dividend to FEC shareholders, completing the monetization of Frontera.
Guyana’s Political Win: President Irfaan Ali's administration wants the northern section of the Corentyne block monetized rather than sitting locked in endless international arbitration. A press release announcing a major global supermajor (TotalEnergies) taking over the block under a fresh license framework—while accelerating production timeline via GranMorgu infrastructure—lets Georgetown claim a massive diplomatic and economic victory. |
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09-13-26 spal
| BTW my view (schpeculation) is that De Alba is on the verge of a deal that will recover the written off investment in Guyana (the Corentyne Field). My best is that he sells the seismic and well data to TotalEnergy and releases his claim on title. Total can tie the field into their absolutely massive development in Suriname (via a subsea pipe). I see the economics of this deal as a $50-60 million deposit and a 10-15% carried interest. Worth about PV USD 400 million. Shares will spike substantially on an announcement. I think next 2 quarters ... anytime. |
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09-13-26 spal
Notes on what happened to Pacific Rubiales (mainly for Panas) ... I just realized (I am slow) that my two major O&G related investments stem directly from the disintegration of this group. Note that the oil shock of 2014-2026 (oil falling massively) mostly did them in.
The Original Builders (Arata, Pantin, Ruttan): They realized that Colombia's security setup and opening of Ecopetrol’s risk-sharing contracts in the 2000s allowed private operators to apply Western Canadian thermal and heavy oil technologies to neglected fields like Rubiales.
Corey Ruttan (Alvopetro): Spotted that while everyone was focused on Colombian oil, onshore Brazil (Bahia) had massive, un-monetized natural gas reserves with high domestic pricing—leading to the creation of Alvopetro.
Gabriel de Alba / Catalyst Capital (Frontera): The restructuring architect who saw that behind Pacific Rubiales' bankrupt, debt-laden E&P shell lay immensely valuable infrastructure assets—specifically the ODL/ODC pipelines and the Puerto Bahía deepwater port. Catalyst wiped out the debt, shifted the model from drill-at-all-costs to cash-flow discipline, and set up the massive capital returns (like the recent C$8.34/share payout) investors enjoy today |
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09-13-26 spal
A lost House restores subpoena power, and ranking members are already drafting the target list: family crypto holdings, foreign gifts, insider trading, the IRS fund and tax-immunity episode, the laughable Epstein-file handling, the personnel purges, the use of the Justice Department against political opponents.
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09-13-26 spal
| 3% ish is the new 2% ... that is the reality - despite the droolings and gibbers. |
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09-13-26 savo
| carib... why will inflation abate? all inflation engines...M2..fed balance sheet.. credit... fiscal deficit...fed funds are all running at the inflationary speed |
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09-13-26 savo
rather than enforcing a strict 2.0% target.
inflation has been above 2% for over 65 months
the fed proclaims a 2% target.. but does nothing to achieve it. |
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09-13-26 carib
| Yemeni battalions stationed in the port city of Mocha were left largely unprepared to fend off a takeover by the Iran-backed Houthis on Thursday, with much of the force’s roster filled with “ghost names” of soldiers that did not actually exist, according to a Saturday CNN report. |
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09-13-26 carib
| My impression is US inflation did not really abate. |
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09-13-26 spal
Realizing that supply shocks cannot be eliminated by high interest rates without causing a sovereign debt crisis, the Fed may informally accept higher inflation (e.g., 2.8%–3.2%) as the new operational baseline rather than enforcing a strict 2.0% target.
olicy rates are likely to settle around 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed will avoid aggressive hikes to protect the Treasury's T-Bill rollover stack, relying instead on balance sheet adjustments to manage systemic liquidity. |
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09-13-26 spal
Monetary policy can no longer be evaluated in isolation from fiscal policy.
The U.S. has entered a regime of Fiscal Dominance, where the Fed's ability to raise rates is structurally bounded by the Treasury's interest burden.
Rate-sensitive equities (tech multiples, real estate trusts) will face pressure under higher discount rates, while hard assets (energy producers, copper, materials, gold) benefit as the market increasingly realizes that the central bank cannot fully stomp out supply-driven inflation without risking a sovereign fiscal crunch. |
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09-13-26 spal
| When considering geopolitical strategy there is nothing new under the sun - it pays to listen to the ancients. |
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09-12-26 carib
SPAL: I am afraid Trump led the USA into a hornets nest..
I fully share the opinion that the ayatollahs should be prevented from getting nukes, but Machiavelli 500 years ago warned that wounding an enemy rather than killing him is unwise, and can backfire.. |
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09-12-26 spal
Iran is preparing a triple-urgency bill to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and test a nuclear weapon, with lawmakers now calling for nuclear weapons tests "as soon as possible" because Iran needs nuclear deterrence, per Iranian MP Haji-Deligani.
The bill follows the NPT withdrawal proposal submitted to parliament on August 21 and the IAEA's referral of Iran to the UN Security Council, which Haji-Deligani says proves the agency "cannot be trusted" after it passed Iran's confidential information to hostile forces and after the strikes on Iranian nuclear plants. He adds "we should conduct the necessary tests for a nuclear weapon as soon as possible." |
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09-12-26 carib
| Higher oil prices, after all, are good for US oil majors and refiners, but not good for Trump and republican candidates.. there is a big snag here, I am afraid.. |
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09-12-26 carib
Trump (said) that Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis had called his administration and indicated they did not want the United States to become directly involved in the conflict.
"They would much prefer not having us involved, and they're letting most ships go through. There's just one country that they're not too happy with, and we'll get that straightened out," Trump added.
JP |
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09-12-26 carib
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09-12-26 pillz
Ever wondered what to say on Rosh Hashanah when you meet a Jewish person? Here's what you need to know.
The Jewish new year is not just a time to renew our resolve to lose another fifteen pounds. Rather, it’s the time when our fate stands in the balance as G‑d reviews our past year and decides whether or not to renew our lease on His planet. As such, Jewish greetings for this time of year (the Jewish New Year is in the fall) reflect our prayers for a good, sweet year up ahead.
The catch-all Jewish new year greeting for the entire season is “Shanah tovah” (שנה טובה), which means “Good year.” The word “u’metuka” (ומתוקה), and sweet, is sometimes appended to the end.
Here are some other greetings that you may hear:
Before Rosh Hashanah, people wish each other “Ketivah v’chatima tovah”(כתיבה וחתימה טובה) “A good inscription and sealing [in the Book of Life].” On Rosh Hashanah eve, as we return from synagogue service, it is traditional to greet one another with “Leshana tovah tikatev v’tichatem” (לשנה טובה תכתב ותחתם). When greeting a female, this is modified to“Leshana tovah tikatevee v’tichatemee” (לשנה טובה תכתבי ותחתמי). This means, “May you be written and sealed for a good year.”
From noon on Rosh Hashanah, when our fates are already written, until Yom Kippur, when our fates for the coming year are to be sealed, we wish each other “Gemar chatimah tovah” (גמר חתימה טובה), “A good final sealing.” (Note that it is not standard to wish someone a “happy Yom Kippur,” but it is perfectly acceptable to wish them a meaningful one.)
Now for the Yiddish version: The standard wish is for “A gut gebentsht yohr,” “A good and blessed year” (א גוט געבענטשט יאהר). And since tradition tells us that our fate is not really sealed until Hoshanah Rabba, the customary salutation for that day is “A gutten kvittl” (א גוט'ן קוויטל), “A good inscription.”
No matter what we say, the main thing is to wish each other a good, sweet year with all our heart – because that is what G‑d values the most. |
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