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03-15-26 spal
Dubai Under Declared Iranian Siege – March 15, 2026Dubai is no longer dealing with “unfortunate interceptions.” It is under explicit, declared siege by Iran. The shift is complete and verified.On March 14 the IRGC, via Fars News and official spokesmen, issued a direct “evacuate or die” warning for Jebel Ali Port (Dubai), Khalifa Port (Abu Dhabi), and Fujairah. Iran now labels these civilian facilities “legitimate military targets” used by the U.S. to strike Kharg Island. All prior restraint and ambiguity are removed. Kinetic strikes are openly threatened.Physical damage is confirmed. A double blast hit near the DIFC Innovation Hub on March 13. AFP correspondents and ground witnesses report explosions, black smoke plumes, and shaking. UAE officials call it “minor debris,” but 92 % Patriot/THAAD interceptions are creating new hazards: shrapnel and sonic booms have shattered glass facades across Business Bay and Dubai Marina. Streets are covered in “diamond dust” – millions of tempered-glass shards turning sidewalks into injury zones.Corporate flight is total. Citi, Deloitte, and PwC have evacuated DIFC offices or gone fully remote. Private and corporate jets are repositioning en masse from Dubai toward Saudi Arabia and Oman (FlightRadar24 data). The UAE arrested 45 people for sharing footage; the blackout has backfired and accelerated rumor-driven panic.Logistics are paralyzed. A debris fire struck Fujairah’s oil facility – the world’s third-largest bunkering hub – on March 14; loading operations suspended. DXB remains technically open but crippled by hours-long holding patterns. Lufthansa, KLM, and others are suspending or slashing UAE routes.Iran’s calculus is working perfectly. High interception rates block mass-casualty images while the constant threat, debris damage, insurance spikes, and capital exodus achieve the goal: de-leveraging Dubai’s global status without leveling the city. This is a slow-motion sovereign run. The deterrent has failed.Direction: rapidly worsening. Expect more incidents or limited direct strikes in the next 48–72 hours.Effects: DIFC rattled, elite fleeing, ports and aviation disrupted, shipping insurance markets hit, public confidence collapsing. Dubai is still operational but its physical and financial foundations are actively eroding in real time.This assessment is grounded in cross-verified IRGC statements, AFP/Reuters/Bloomberg reporting, flight-tracking data, and OSINT/web chatter. Official UAE denials are contradicted by every independent source.
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03-15-26 spal
The higher and longer the rally in energy goes, the more likely a dovish Fed reaction function emerges.
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No kidding.
And they are saying basically avoid moreorless everything except energy schtocks for now as de-risking event likely.
Yep. |
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03-14-26 savo
pillz... two things: 1) vix 2) the dollar.
The market is not people any more... the market is algos...
There are no people deciding to sell or buy this or that when something big hits the news.. the ones that respond are the algos...
and when vix goes up everything de-risks... including gold.. then there is the dollar... all algos have a sell commodities instruction when the dollar goes up... and gold is a commodity apart form being the only real money.
good but long analysis by JP:
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One of the persistent lines of questioning we have been receiving over the last two weeks is around gold: Why isn’t it acting like a safe haven (significant pullback early last week, renewed pressure to end this week) and how to think tactically from here? As we flagged in our first reaction note, gold’s conflict risk premium is often very fleeting with a buy the rumor/sell the fact dynamic. On top of this, a sharp initial rebound in the USD and fading Fed rate cut expectations amid a jump in inflationary pressures on higher energy prices are also contributing and have continued to exert pressure anew late this week .
We address these points more below, but we also think there is likely another influential dynamic at play that is worth exploring too and likely contributed to outflows from gold ETF holdings and gold’s initial sharp bearish reversal last week: contagion from broad-based investor de- risking when bearish equity volatility ramps up.
Gold isn’t immune from a “sell everything” flush
Gold gets initially swept up in a “sell everything” trade when VIX is high and rising. Thinking tactically from here, this initial contagion risk is an important structural dynamic to explore in gold given the potential for more equity volatility ahead the longer the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts energy flows and global supply chains. In general this gold selling dynamic during times of market/equity stress arises as investors shift to increase portfolio liquidity and raise cash amid a combination of margin call pressure, portfolio rebalancing and VaR shocks driving de- risking of portfolios across the board. And we do see this coming through in the data. As a starting point, filtering weekly gold returns for different VIX regimes shows that in weeks where the VIX is high (30 and above) and rising, gold faces a much stiffer headwind on average as equity prices contract meaningfully . While a bearish gold reaction function in this regime isn’t universal, gold’s positive hit rate for high and rising VIX weeks falls to only 45% and average weekly returns flip negative, the only bucket where this is the case. The risk-off contagion is even starker in silver, where in a high and rising VIX environment, silver prices have fallen about 61% of the time, averaging over a -2% WoW fall. Again, within this dynamic, dollar strength does likely play a role initially too as the DXY is quite asymmetrically bid in this high and rising VIX regime too.
This initial de-risking selloff in gold has been a tactical dip to buy. Beyond the outright VIX level, trajectory is critical too, with gold switching from its most bearish regime in a high and rising VIX environment to its most bullish in high and falling VIX environment. To explore this sequencing in a bit more detail, we examine 25 discrete instances when the VIX has broken into this higher regime since 2006. In the vast majority of instances (all but 3 to be precise, over the 2008 GFC, in 2011 and over Covid in 2020) the VIX falls back below 30 pretty quickly, most of the time well within ~10-15 trading days. Looking at the average price trajectory of gold over these periods, on average, selling pressure in gold is the most intense over the first couple of days following the VIX breaking above 30 (-0.5% average cumulative fall), followed by a pretty quick and sustained reversal beginning on the third day and on average lasting for over a week.
Over this rebound, gold on average recovers to exceed its initial levels before the VIX broke above 30 by the 4th day and nets a trough to peak average rally of greater than 2% by the ~10th trading day following the VIX's first close above 30.
Silver follows a similar path, though given its higher volatility, it has historically fallen more sharply initially (-2.5%) and on average only recovers to (rather than exceeds) its levels before the VIX broke above 30 over the rebound window.
Further out, and similar to gold, silver is also prone to a double-dip dynamic between 10-15 days after the VIX breaks 30 but it is both sharper and more sustained than what we observe on average in gold. This comes as both in general the percentage of occasions where prices are positive vs t-1, or the day before VIX hit 30 or above, is lower than gold through time and is accentuated by a minority of occasions where, following the initial flush lower in silver, the selloff continued to escalate, namely over recessionary dynamics in 2008 and 2020.
The higher and longer the rally in energy goes, the more likely a dovish Fed reaction function emerges
Looking beyond the short-term and tactical, while higher oil prices and a jump in inflation expectations/easing in Fed cut expectations could amplify some near-term bearish volatility in gold too, we ultimately think gold will eventually push significantly higher under a scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
First on inflation, while broad commodities indices more closely track inflation month in and month out, gold has acted as a relatively consistent hedge over recent periods of rapid and consistent increases in inflation, which is arguably a more apt framework given the inflation dynamics around oil price risks at the moment. Since 2000, there have been five periods where US headline CPI rose relatively consistently and sharply by more than 2.5 %-pts.
Gold rose by more than double digits over every one of these episodes outside of the most recent, post-COVID inflation surge, which was driven by a positive demand shock and constrained supply chains which inflated other commodity prices much more significantly. Particularly if an oil price shock becomes stagflationary, we think gold remains a key hedge in this environment.
Moreover, thinking about the Fed’s reaction function as they are due to meet next week, our economists see a moderate oil price increase (as we have seen thus far) reinforcing an on-hold Fed but expect that larger and more sustained price jumps would be dovish (see US: Oil and the economy, Reinhart et al., 06 Mar 2026 & Shock and pause: Iran and central banks, Kasman et al., 13 Mar 2026). The larger and more sustained the increase in oil prices, the greater the risk for larger nonlinear reductions in growth and the corresponding likely drag on employment. While this would also result in a larger surge in headline inflation, the pass-through to core inflation appears limited. Hence, in a scenario in which oil prices spike to $120/bbl or higher on a realized and expected sustained reduction in supply, our economists expect the Fed to be biased toward easing as downside risks to activity once again move to the fore. On this front, by the end of next week, our oil analysts expect crude supply cuts to approach 12 mbd, making the deficit highly visible across physical markets.
Conclusion: While there has already been an element of de-risking impacting gold over the last two weeks, in the near-term gold still likely remains vulnerable to getting swept up in a broader de-risking event, particularly if equity markets more suddenly price in a material and prolonged shock to the global economy, raising worries on liquidity as well. On top of this, gold could also face further near-term pressure from higher yields as the rates market continues to price out the remaining Fed cuts to start. While one needs to be cautious of this potential further flush lower, the longer the disruption goes on and the more sizeable the inflationary and, importantly, growth impacts become, we still think the backdrop for gold will likely quickly flip materially bullish, amplified by a sharp shift towards Fed easing as the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate takes precedence. |
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03-14-26 savo
spal.. what you say may be the case...but then follow the law... go to congress .. explain your case... have a debate... justifiy your plans...get clearance from congress and the resources to fun the operation... do things by the book... may your actions unquestionable...
the fact that DT is not doing that raises immediate questions... are we supposed to believe his propaganda?... his twits?... or his un-presentable sec of defense?
pana... again... 60% enrich uranium?.. according to who?.. go to congress present the evidence.. make your case...show the evidence.
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03-14-26 spal
The iranians are mostly nice people.
the Ayatollahs are not.
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100%.
The Iranians I know have been intelligent, graceful, courteous and friendly.
I am not so sure about Ayatollahs. |
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03-14-26 carib
The iranians are mostly nice people.
the Ayatollahs are not.
I hope Iran gets free from its clergy. |
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03-14-26 panasonic
| Savo, besides Spal post I would ask, why 60% enriched uranium? |
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03-14-26 pillz
| I don't understand why gold go down and not up in this war ??? |
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03-14-26 spal
or its arab neighbors...
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It was a threat to the arabs. It does not think of them as neighbors. It has spent the years since the Iranian revolution trying to seduce and therefore control the Shiite populations with a cocktail of marxism and islamism - 100% it has designs on the Gulf.
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it was a threat to Israel.
Yes - although over millenia they were friends of the Jewish people - they have used antisemitism as a projection of the common enemy in the Gulf region.
They are an existential threat to Israel.
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And via their desired (and it was the longer term plan) chock hold on the Gulf they are a clear and present economic threat to US primacy.
Different from their threat to Israel, but significant enough for the US to join Israel in this "operation"
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03-14-26 savo
pana.. forgive my skepticism but we do not know whether there was a threat and if there was one, what kind of threat it was...
all we know is what we are told... and the track record of the US government telling the truth about anything is very poor.
we are fed what they want us to believe... and we have no way to double check that information...
My unsubstantiated opinion is that Iran was not a threat to the US or Europe or its arab neighbors... it was a threat to Israel...
and if DT thought there was a threat to the US he should have gone to congress, explain the case and have congress declare war on Iran... that is what the US constitution say. So this war is unconstitutional for starters.
And there are a number of reasons why the constitution wants Congress to decide...
1) because the US constitution does not want one guy who, even president, may not be of sound mind, taking the country to war on his own,
2) because wars cost money and it is congress responsibility to put taxes to pay for wars, unless the president intends to finance the war with QE,
3) because in wars people die... so there has to be a well balance discussion before deciding to send US citizens to die in offshore lands. And that discussion has to take place in congress not in Mar-o-Lago.
Remember that every time a bomb is dropped... another bomb is purchased to replace it... imagine that money that some people are making out of this war.
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03-14-26 panasonic
My two cents,the political cost of this war is huge.
DT decided to solve a long term threat that advanced during "negotiations", alarms by intelligence reports were ignored.
As Spal wrote, the master plan now is clear and had to be addressed, and feelings for DT should not be mixed with the problem at hand. |
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03-14-26 savo
this makes me very happy...
“En la mañana del 14 de marzo de 2019, la bandera estadounidense fue arriada por última vez en la Embajada de los Estados Unidos en Caracas. Esta mañana, 14 de marzo de 2026, a la misma hora, mi equipo y yo izamos la bandera de los Estados Unidos—exactamente siete años después de haber sido retirada”, señaló el funcionario en un mensaje difundido públicamente.
El diplomático afirmó que el acto simbólico marca el inicio de una nueva etapa en los vínculos entre ambos países. “Ha comenzado una nueva era para las relaciones entre los Estados Unidos y Venezuela. Seguimos con Venezuela”, expresó. |
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03-14-26 savo
| may be.. we'll see... for the moment it seems a half baked plan...just throw bombs... destroy infrastructure... no plan for the aftermath |
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03-14-26 spal
this is a gigantic mess.
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The mess was coming one way or another. Iran's posture was one of expansion and there is no way that Israel could sustain the pressure from its proxies. Iran had/has designs on the Gulf region. That is clear as daylight now. |
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03-14-26 savo
| https://x.com/stealthqe4/status/2032789975410893214?s=12&t=JHX4_bRzg43q7__yG__aUw |
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03-14-26 savo
pana.. forget about the ayatollahs... who cares whether they are dead or alive...
focus in what matters ... supply chains... this guy is excellent and explains it very well.
The magnitude of the US fuck up with a senile president surrounded by an incompetent Sec of defense that is incapable of running the numbers... an absent sec of the treasury who supposedly should be explaining the previous two how the world economy works......
this is a gigantic mess. |
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03-14-26 panasonic
Pretty obvious, Khamenei is not the one calling the shots:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czj1z0enk70o |
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03-14-26 victor
| Iran had plans of taking over the entire Middle East, and completely obliterating Israel. JUST LIKE IRAN ITSELF, THOSE PLANS ARE NOW DEAD! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-14-26 victor
| Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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