09-27-26 victor
savo, right.. the implications of such.
also implications for 2028 elections..
dt offers $20k to each citizen if the gop wins the white house..
and $50k if gop wins white house + congress.
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09-27-26 savo
victor
Dumocrats can’t do this!
say the dems win the house... and pass a bill to do 10k instead of 5k
will DT veto it? |
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09-27-26 savo
victor...
bessent clapping.
Not the only one Yes Sir, of course Sir! |
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09-27-26 mo-mon
Hann
Well done! 62 is young. Continue with what what you wrote below about fasting etc. I do the same & I'm 63.
As to farming, you seem to have enough experience. If that durian farm is in the Philippines, I believe it would be preferable to control all aspects from farm to market.
What I should've done a long time ago was to buy/lease a small 5 hectare plot as a getaway from the city. Totally self-sufficient w/ animals (for family consumption of milk, cheese & protein). Heirloom seeds for rice, corn, fruits & vegetables.
Solar-battery-generator energy. Deep well or river water with multi-stage filtration.
As to Philippine banking, only Bank of the Philippine Islands & if you need a second bank, Chinabank.
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09-27-26 spal
| Hann - thanks for the details. The picture just gets better and better! I certainly wish these kind of ventures all the very best. |
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09-27-26 hann
09-26-26 carib
Hann: I am not at all familiar with "vaults".. but I am not sure they cost that much. A normal safe deposit box in a bank vault costs at worse a couple of thousands, and 50 kg of gold fit in a small box.. but are worth over 60MM$..
Now most Colores are old hacks with significant capital. Besides the intellectual and emotional rewards of booking profits, what we need is just to secure a stream of income that allows us to live well and sleep well at night.
Or am I mistaken?
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1.5% singapore private bank quoted us some years back - SG gold vaults just getting started. But... on the internet now I see 0.2 to 0.5%. Our bank sucks, terrible execution. Tempted many times to change but it's hard to open new accounts.
Safety deposit box - I confess not checking. 1-2 decades ago, branches would get robbed in Ph. Also 2016 major bank (now 30% owned by Sumitomo) implicated in that Bangladesh swift scam. Only branch manager jailed. More recently two top ph tier banks issued certifications for billion $ deposits for market darling wirecard fraud.
David Bonderman really liked gold at 250 (interviewed for TPG around 2000).
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What old guys need ... is more life. Unfortunately this means normal BMI, whole food plant based diet, one meal a day, occasional long fasting to train body to burn fat. 95% of people who've lost 30lbs gain 10lbs/year after 2 years. Can't say am fully compliant. But have lost 37lbs, kept this over 8 years. 20lbs more to go.
Future is more pickleball, weight training, vegetables and less alcohol, star meals, etc.
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09-26-26 spal
am building a big durian farm, combo agri + tourism... a little optimistic to do it at 62.
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Hann - sounds very cool.
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I like it. Family also. Farm + flower corridor + gift shop + simple resto. Wife is willing to work on it if she can hand over her business to my eldest.
Kualoa ranch in Hawaii - 400 acres, dramatic spiked cliffs w panoramic sea views. 40+ movies shot there. E-mountain biking on trails, open fields one of the most fun experiences. 300k visitors per year.
Tomita Farms in hokkaido - 4-5ha, flower corridors w lavender, really not so much to talk about vs Provence. 1mn visitors per year with ridiculous gift shops. For that matter Senanque Abbey in Provence has more ridiculous gift shop.
I have a 60+ ha nice hilly area, 600m from cement road. Steep but plantable, walkable. 100km from my house. A couple of new highways reducing travel time to 2 hours. If/when some more roads get built, maybe 1'30. Have master planner, landscape archi - all concept so fees are low. Want talented archi to do entry pavilion, tasting area, small house. Talked to him 3 years ago when he was just doing tiny houses. Now managing partner of arguably no 1 local archi firm. Not sure I can afford. Really it's a farm so 800 thai cocos, 1000 mixed malaysian durian, 130 mixed orchard (thai, indo mango, some ph, other local fruits). Experienced developer w 350 ha planting. Probably costing me 50% extra vs DIY.
Reality is 5+ years of operating losses till durian fruits. If I do the tourism thing probably I can reduce or eliminate burn. Am probably 60% into capex program. No debt. In theory i can cover capex and sustain burn. Anyway first thing to do is break even
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09-27-26 victor
| We have the BEST FINANCIAL NUMBERS EVER, and the FAKE NEWS MEDIA refuses to report them!!! President DJT |
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09-27-26 victor
savo.. dt promised yet again the $5k if the gop wins..
bessent clapping.. what a douchebag.
yields even higher probably if the gop wins and dt makes good on this promise.
//
A 5000 Dollar Dividend to all adults if Republicans WIN! Dumocrats can’t do this!
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117339693977416746
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09-26-26 savo
away from debt.
De-Treasurization |
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09-26-26 spal
am building a big durian farm, combo agri + tourism... a little optimistic to do it at 62.
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Hann - sounds very cool. |
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09-26-26 carib
Foreign investors made a record $942bn in net purchases of US equities and investment fund shares in the 12 months to July, accelerating a shift in overseas investment towards American stocks and away from debt.
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09-26-26 carib
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09-26-26 carib
Savo: likewise.
Running an investment fund or owning a cash cow produces a similar outcome: every year you cash a fat dividend that exceeds your spending needs. |
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09-26-26 savo
Bonds were clearly not the place to be after the 2008 crisis.
numerically speaking may be... but quality of life speaking i would not agree with that.
I love recurrent cash entering the account, paying bills and allowing some reinvestment.
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09-26-26 carib
| Hann: I am not at all familiar with "vaults".. but I am not sure they cost that much. A normal safe deposit box in a bank vault costs at worse a couple of thousands, and 50 kg of gold fit in a small box.. but are worth over 60MM$.. |
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09-26-26 carib
The past is not necessarily a guide for the future.. but it can provide clues. What made excellent returns in the last two decades, without doubt?
1) tech stocks
2) bitcoin
3) gold (if bought below 1000)
Bonds were clearly not the place to be after the 2008 crisis.
Now most Colores are old hacks with significant capital. Besides the intellectual and emotional rewards of booking profits, what we need is just to secure a stream of income that allows us to live well and sleep well at night.
Or am I mistaken? |
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09-26-26 savo
hann..
while people look at hyperscalers...
look at the graph of the utilities Sector:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.GSPU/
and regional banks...
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/KRE/
these two sectors are key to the underlying economy. |
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09-26-26 savo
hann... and this time the crisis will be a sovereign debt crisis... not mortgages... or dotcomms.. or emerging markets..but developed market sovereigns.
who bails out the developed market sovereigns which are already taxing their citizens to death?
Central banks?
that would be the last nail in the coffin of fiat currencies. |
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09-26-26 hann
09-26-26 savo
At some point... i do not know when... the stock market will break.
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I think we'll have a multiyear crash, maybe US tech down 60-80%. Other markets not sure. Money will flow somewhere...
I have about 25% usd cash. Mostly in money market funds - i don't like this either as they also get into trouble in a big crash.
Have carpal tunnel in both hands screening actively w AI and bloomberg past 4 weeks w no new ideas.
Trump btw rejected Iran proposal. So 30 Sept back to war...
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09-26-26 savo
hann
stock markets are behaving as if interest rates are not going up.
I think interest rates are going much higher for the simple reason that they remain real negative.
With negative real rates people borrow and spend, do not save.
Hence there is not enough capital around to finance the roll over of so much government debt word wide plus the growing fiscal deficits.
At some point... i do not know when... the stock market will break.
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09-26-26 hann
More on gold -
09-25-26 savo
that means 2 trn dollars per annum on interest as the 40 trn rolls over...
the only solution is very high inflation.
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Hann... FWIW i believe that is a narrative fabricated by the government terminals which repeated ad nauseam has become official wisdom.
My view is that gold (by that I mean the precious metals complex including miners) is the opposite... is a protection against the incapacity of Fed officials to act independently from politics and provide stable currency no matter what.
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Ok - put this way I agree. Big trend is USD debasement vs real assets, high interest rates but much lower than inflation. Gold is a good way to preserve purchasing power.
Owning physical in size - SG vaults charge 1-2%/year. If i keep it, high chance of eventual theft. If SHTF, not sure what price u will get if you need sack of potatoes. Silver coins are more practical.
Gold miners - div yields are low, have to deal w overhead, resource nationalism, declining grades etc. Like owning a real estate developer vs owning the real estate. Most of the time better to own real estate. But gold there's no yield and no daily utility.
In lieu of gold, I'm trying this:
own real productive assets - biz, farm(s). rice fields, mixed food farm u really don't make any money but there's always food. excess we actually just give away. am building a big durian farm, combo agri + tourism... a little optimistic to do it at 62.
portfolio wise - in this flavor
undervalued commodity producers at low end of cost curve, pays div and appreciates, can be semi-no brainer sometimes.
biz that benefits from some inflation - financials not too exposed to asset blow up, cheap, market leader, div. generally where interest rates are already high.
resi/commercial/office real estate - never really got into this for yield. we just buy what we use. i feel i can get better returns/yield from port investments
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