02-01-26 spal
Thanks Amateur - the trick is to stay just one step ahead of the mob.
Al Pacino / Coach D'Amato: (01:47) / On Every Sunday
You find out life's this game of inches. So is football because in either game, life or football, the margin for error is so small. I mean, one half a step too late or too early and you don't quite make it. One half second, too slow, too fast, you don't quite catch it. The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break of the game, every minute, every second.
Such a great speech. |
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02-01-26 amateur
Great call, Spal…” start exiting some metals positions today - rotating to energy …”
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01-31-26 savo
it is going to be an interesting contest Delcy vs the Psycho...
my chips on Delcy. |
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01-31-26 carib
12-24 months before elections would be good (IMHO), because inter alia it would imply a full formal breech of the "Bolivarian" constitution,
with DelCIA a "de facto" president, in the meantime. |
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01-31-26 carib
El secretario de Energía de Estados Unidos, Chris Wright, habría informado a ejecutivos de algunas empresas que podrían celebrarse elecciones en Venezuela dentro de 18 o 24 meses, informó este sábado el diario The Wall Street Journal.
Según dicha publicación, algunos miembros de la Administración de Donald Trump han intentado tranquilizar a legisladores, líderes extranjeros y empresarios afirmando que la cooperación de Washington con el Gobierno de la presidenta interina de Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez, es temporal. |
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01-31-26 spal
Panas: the value of sardines.. is you can eat them.
;~)
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They are quite delicious BTW. |
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01-31-26 spal
Spal, there is a lot of leverage on slv trade, and when it blows, it blows ;-)
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Yes - I am being a bit precious with me definitions.
I'd call them/ those folks chasing the silver trade as FOMO types or gamblers.
I was hoping you'd allow the word "speculator" to be used for more sophisticated activity ... but point taken.
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01-31-26 savo
| let's see what hawk Warsh has in mind... if he chooses to open his mouth. |
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01-31-26 savo
first US casualty of Friday's sell off
First Independence Bank, Detroit, Michigan, Assumes All Deposits of Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, Chicago, Illinois
https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2026/first-independence-bank-detroit-michigan-assumes-all-deposits-metropolitan |
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01-31-26 Merlino
BTC at $78k
.....................
Will we see it below S&P (10xSPY)? |
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01-31-26 savo
A Chinese gold trading platform has just frozen 19 BILLION $ in assets.
Thousands of investors can no longer withdraw their funds.
The platform is offering 20% compensation of the initial capital.
The owner is asking for time and claims he has "been set up / trapped". |
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01-31-26 savo
one more push and Saylor's ponzi is over...
and every other Bitcoin treasury company |
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01-31-26 panasonic
| BTC at $78k, and we know how ugly it gets when leveraged instruments face margin calls. |
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01-31-26 Merlino
for example, in 2000 you needed 5 ounces of gold to buy one S&P... today .. even after friday.. you need 1.4.
..................................
Gold has increased much more than S&P and it is the same for other individual assets (NVD, any MG7, etc) even inside S&P however in general one gets more real assets/goodies/services or covers a larger part of personal expenses with one SPY share today than in 2000
Then imho green papelitos still valuable if one could get along with S&P or at least real CPI inflation
The future who knows?....financial situation could still go along for many years or not....if not my guess is it could either be resolved by way of inflation and debt value debasement or by outright deflation and debt default....my guess is they will try to go with the former Bernanke style
I do not see a US government debt default as long as they have ink available. They say they can kind of recapitalize the FED with gold revaluation and perhaps with control over new natural resources like Veni oil and gold, Canada and Greenland resources, etc.
Who knows? Not me
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01-31-26 carib
Savo: but you just wrote "value is relative"...
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01-31-26 panasonic
Explosions reported in Iran:
https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/31/explosions-reported-in-iran |
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01-31-26 savo
carib... i measure things the same way... but i am much less than 80 years..
in any case it is a personal way of looking at things... it says nothing about real value. |
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01-31-26 savo
since times of Methuselah :-))
it does indeed... yet every financial outlet... every financial news channel... every anal en Wall Street and abroad.. keep on saying the US markets have reached a new all time high... when in fact it is reaching a new time low...
go and figure out!
DR said in Davos that under his presidency the S&P has reached 55 all time highs... nobody corrected him. |
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01-31-26 panasonic
| "Pork bellies" not "provided" :-) |
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01-31-26 panasonic
Savo, yes ratio or relative value exists since times of Methuselah, the only thing that changed is speed.
Building a bubble and blowing it could take decades, then years, etc. now it will take days if not hours.
These days you'll get thousands of feeds, podcasts, TikToks on why an asset has more value and paying a premium is ok, the last to arrive will suffer the loss.
It's ok, most buyers want to exit with a quick buck. Organic liquidity would produce a milder blow, leverage is the one that makes it hard blow...if you can predict the next one pls share, can be provided bellies or cocoa, who knows. |
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01-31-26 carib
Savo: that is an interesting definition.
In my book, the meter is my annual family spending..
It is not a stable meter, because it keeps increasing when wealth increases, but it remains the most rational I can figure.
When I was 25, my wealth was about one year of annual spending.
now it is about 80 years of annual spending. |
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01-31-26 savo
pana... as Carl Menger explained... value is subjective.. and thus explains trade.
What is valuable for one person may not be for another.
In terms of price things are simpler. Think of price as a ratio. And put whatever you want in the denominatior. If you put dollars the price of something is the price you see. If you put gold in the denominator then it is the dollar prices in terms of gold.
for example, in 2000 you needed 5 ounces of gold to buy one S&P... today .. even after friday.. you need 1.4.
So whoever invested in the S&P this century....measured in real money that person has lost 72% of his capital.
I know I am repeating myself... but irrespective of the volatility... induced by margins set by the exchanges and the doves dressed as hawks... the tendency is clear...
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01-31-26 carib
Panas: the value of sardines.. is you can eat them.
;~) |
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01-31-26 panasonic
Savo, indeed.
Anything that works will go under meme attack till the leverage bubble blows it out.
What's the real value of slv, or nvda, or sardines? We don't know. |
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01-31-26 carib
| Savo: I love balanced budgets.. but do not expect them. |
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01-31-26 savo
carib.. he will have a short time to show his colors...
it is death by inflation and dollar crisis or death by financial crisis and bond market crisis.. unless the government changes course and balances de budget... |
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01-31-26 carib
Savo: that might be an academic consideration, but absent from the current US political landscape, sadly or not.
The fellow is no MAGA. That is good enough for the time being.
(until mid-term elections, that is) |
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