12-17-25 victor
pana, and you still didn't answer my question :-))
can the usa afford to decouple from the eu, and leave these rare earths under the control of russia & china ?? |
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12-17-25 victor
pana, spain is already buying tech from china, in spite of the usa's threats.
that's an example.
November 27, 2025
China Just Took Over Europe's EV Battery Dreams--In Spain's Backyard
Spain just fired a shot across Europe's industrial landscape, and the echo could be loud. Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and China's CATL have broken ground on a 4.1 billion battery plant in northern Spain, a project that could be seen as Europe leaning on Beijing even as policymakers try to counter China's reach.
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12-17-25 victor
| pana, maybe because china prefers to deal with the EU than the USA? |
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12-17-25 panasonic
Vic, me don't see anyone wining wars without the most advanced AI equipment... Putin and EU are out of the race, so that is now EU problem, and they'll need tech from USA.
China will be glad to provide it to OPutin, the big question is why is EU in denial of that simple fact? |
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12-17-25 victor
pana, well.. the usa and china are fighting to be military power #1.
the eu decided not to. instead, focusing on trade.
in terms of screwing each other, china has more reasons to screw the usa than the eu.
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12-17-25 victor
pana, for ex: AI isnt the only industry that requires rare earths..
advanced military equipment also requires rare earths, etc
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12-17-25 panasonic
victor: the eu has less to lose than the usa, as it is not fighting to be #1 military power.
....
Can you elaborate bit more?
I don't see how can EU sleep soundly if any Nato nation is attacked? DT will do money selling more defense systems, or you have a different playbook?
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12-17-25 panasonic
| Merlino, enough reasons to kick regime out, probably oil is not the principal motive. |
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12-17-25 savo
tech selling off... btc and eth selling off...
gold and gold miners fighting the fight...
silver ... miraculously .... shinning tall over the firmament +4.5%..for now. |
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12-17-25 victor
merlino, yes, but the idea is to screw china as much as possible.
to prevent china from competing with the usa on AI, you need to limit china's access to rare earths.
the AI war, usa-china, that pana mentions. |
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12-17-25 Merlino
can the usa afford to decouple from the eu, and leave these rare earths under the control of russia & china ??
.........................
Are not a lot of these rare earths also in Latam, including Veni and Argy?
It looks everybody can have its fair part |
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12-17-25 victor
pana, the eu has less to lose than the usa, as it is not fighting to be #1 military power.
again... :-))
can the usa afford to decouple from the eu, and leave these rare earths under the control of russia & china ?? |
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12-17-25 panasonic
| Savo, no worries you will find plenty stress free, but we have to understand marketing strategies are not based on senior citizens. |
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12-17-25 panasonic
| Vic, EU should be the one knocking the door in China, unacceptable that this AI war brings death and a revival of USSR days only bcz China wants it...and meanwhile EU buying all sort of stuff from them, no? |
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12-17-25 savo
| pana... the world is perfectly fine with petrol cars... if somebody wants electric fine... but those of us that prefer combustion... please let us live in peace. |
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12-17-25 victor
| pana, can the usa afford to have russia or china control these ukr regions with rare earths? |
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12-17-25 panasonic
Savo, we are not the car companies target for years to come.
Self driving is going to be of huge impact, with time even old chaps like us will value stress free riding. |
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12-17-25 savo
this is horrible...
https://x.com/clippve/status/2001249691728556202
Meanwhile MCM having fun in Oslo...Guaido having a stroll in Miami beach... Lopez and Ledesma shopping at al Corte Ingles. |
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12-17-25 savo
pana... i understand the attraction of electric cars.. less noise.. no combustion..etc... like scalextric cars... but I have an electric bike that I use daily for long rides and have to recharge every two days... if I forget I can't ride... and it is one of the good ones... my son has an electric audi or may be hybrid... it is always charging...
A nuisance... i stick to petrol cars
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12-17-25 victor
pana, btw, elections in extremadura on sunday.
in former times (2 elections ago) the psoe would win without problems in this region. this used to be psoe turf.
since last election (2023) the pp won, and is expected to win some more on sunday, and the psoe to sink even more. |
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12-17-25 panasonic
| Vic, the real war is AI dominance and China having control of rare minerals is their most valuable piece, besides w/o China, Putin weakens a lot, search no more. |
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12-17-25 spal
We all knew Trump was a terrible person and certifiably mad, but this actually shocked me. He’s basically implying that, one way or another, Reiner died for his opposition to Trump. “Due to the anger he caused others.” Trump seems to have believed—or fantasized—that a supporter killed Reiner, and he was gleeful about it. Now, he may not be as evil as the monstrous dictators of the 20th century, but he routinely sounds more insane in public than they ever did. Hitler and Stalin were sure to associate their persons with something greater than themselves: the Volk or the march of history. To find an analogy for bloody-minded blather on this level, one has to look to petty tyrants like Idi Amin, who really may be the historical figure who most resembles Trump. It’s a campy sort of villainy: it sounds like the Penguin addressing Gotham, or it’s as if Andrew Lloyd Weber did Richard III.
Anybody who pretends there's something else going on here is willingly participating in a delusion, which is harder to defend than support for the totalitarianisms of the past, because it is all so obviously hollow and idiotic. You cannot plead ignorance: the cards are right on the table.
The word for all this is “horror.” It combines a sense of both fear and revulsion, like lifting a rock to find loathsome creatures all crawling on top of each other, except here we see the swarming hatefulness of Trump’s mind. It’s disgusting. And I can’t help but also think of Conrad’s Heart of Darkness and the mad Kurtz. While his intellectual defenders still drone on about “Western civilization,” here is its champion. This post reveals the heart of darkness at the core of the whole thing: utter madness and murderous rancor.
The Horror
MAGA's Heart of Darkness
John Ganz
Dec 17
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12-17-25 panasonic
| Savo, not sure, it was comment on cnbc, but that is "new" cars sold of course, meaning that is not a quick transition, but say 10 years shift will be more significant imho. |
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12-17-25 savo
| strong opening in silver +3% |
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12-17-25 victor
pana, these rare earths are on russia controlled ukr, or very near, as i understood.
so the big winner is russia. |
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12-17-25 savo
victor..Putin wants the former soviet union republics to either be independent but Russian ally or returned to Russia.
that is the same Trump wants with Latam.
The difference is that Russia and China are a pair... and the US is bankrupt and accompanied by bankrupt EU. |
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12-17-25 savo
pana.. that stat includes india, china, thailand, philipines, Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil..etc...?
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12-17-25 panasonic
Vic, China needs to control rare minerals from Ukraine, that is the real story, is the only leverage to balance power on AI war with USA.
EU will have to deal with Russia, and shortcut would be to put China in EU's not-friendly list. |
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12-17-25 panasonic
Stats showing that 1 of each 5 cars sold in '25 were EV, and projection is 1 of each 4 for '26.
Years of strong oil demand also are numbered.
8 million veni migrants and counting, region is turning to the right, Veni Cartel sinked the left in the region, time to say goodbye. |
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12-17-25 victor
merlino, if they don't stop putin, there could be a russia war vs europe and/or the usa in the near future.
today he told the russian army to get ready to expand the war.
//
Putin insiste en quedarse con los “territorios históricos” de Rusia en Ucrania
Rusia volvió a dar motivos este miércoles para pensar que las negociaciones de paz en Ucrania no van a ser ni rápidas ni fáciles. El jefe del Kremlin, Vladímir Putin, insistió en quedarse con los “territorios históricos rusos” en el país vecino y su ministro de Defensa, Andréi Beloúsov, aseguró que ahora mismo se dan las condiciones para que la guerra entre los dos países eslavos continúe en 2026.
En un encuentro con la plana mayor del Ejército y del Ministerio de Defensa rusos, Putin dijo que si fracasan los actuales esfuerzos diplomáticos sus tropas conquistarán militarmente lo que llamó “territorios históricos rusos” en Ucrania.
Luhansk, Donetsk, Jersón y Zaporiyia
El líder ruso se estaría refiriendo a las cuatro provincias ucranianas que Moscú dijo anexionarse en septiembre de 2022, aunque ni entonces ni ahora las controla al cien por cien. Se trataría de Luhansk, que sí está casi completamente en manos rusas; y Donetsk, que forman la región minera del Donbass; además de Jersón y Zaporiyia.
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12-17-25 Merlino
if the usa can control vz, the usa can significantly increase global oil output, and considerably lower the price of oil and maybe also of natural gas.
(vz also has lots of natural gas reserves)
......................................
May be but this means US will have to sacrifice its whole shale activity |
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12-17-25 victor
savo, the booty is not only the oil... it is also veni's underground gold
//
right, but there is also another angle re energy.
if the usa can control vz, the usa can significantly increase global oil output, and considerably lower the price of oil and maybe also of natural gas.
(vz also has lots of natural gas reserves)
which would in turn help the usa gain leverage over russia (and iran).
similarly to how reagan won the cold war against the ussr.
so many years have passed since the ussr, and russia's economy is still highly dependent on energy, just like the ussr's.
that's russia's achilles' heel. |
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12-17-25 Merlino
Savo, right. There are also plenty of other valuable things in Veni
I wonder if this was all planed time ago, long term strategy, chavismo included, bcz such a destruction of a country in peacetime is unprecedented, to my knowledge |
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12-17-25 victor
merlino, ok, no problem
especially important since in 2019 she was still a democrat
she switched to the gop in 2024 |
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12-17-25 savo
do not disregard veni's gold... Bolivia managed to stay current and continue importing goods thanks to gold production that the government buys in bolivares and adds to reserves in dollars.. bonds in the meantime went up from 57 to 90 today.
Veni is in a similar situation... I think this may explain increased US hostility.. the booty is not only the oil... it is also veni's underground gold:
JP
International reserves are at a multi-year high of $13.4bn or $8.8bn excluding IMF SDRs. However, much of the increase appears to be driven by valuation changes in the stock of gold reserves, which have otherwise stayed stable. BCV data also shows some uptick in available liquid reserves to about $1.7bn through October, the highest level since end-2019. |
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12-17-25 Merlino
| Vic, you are right, sorry...it was a yesterday´s repost of an old X ... things have changed...I was surprised by this X |
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12-17-25 Merlino
| I wonder if us foreign individual investors/creditors are in anybody´s mind in this sad saga. |
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12-17-25 victor
merlino, next time, please post the date.
thanks.
//
Tulsi Gabbard 🌺
The United States needs to stay out of Venezuela. Let the Venezuelan people determine their future. We don't want other countries to choose our leaders--so we have to stop trying to choose theirs.
2:19 PM · Jan 24, 2019 from Washington, DC
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12-17-25 Merlino
Erik Del Bufalo @ekbufalo 12h
Todo apunta a que Trump quiere el monopolio de la producción petrolera venezolana. Eso explicaría por qué no quiso negociar con Maduro, quien le ofreció una participación generosa en la explotación petrolera.
Hay dos razones básicas: en primer lugar EEUU podría usar las reservas petroleras (no necesita explotarlas) como colateral financiero. Por otra parte, piensa que con ello corta camino a los chinos, mientras amortigua el impacto de una futura guerra contra Irán
Trump va a castigar duramente al pueblo venezolano, por no haber podido, en su ineptitud megalómana, salir del régimen chavista.
De prolongarse en el tiempo el bloqueo, los años más horribles del periodo chavista nos parecerán de ensueño. |
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12-17-25 Merlino
Tulsi Gabbard 🌺@TulsiGabbard
The United States needs to stay out of Venezuela. Let the Venezuelan people determine their future. We don't want other countries to choose our leaders--so we have to stop trying to choose theirs.
................................
They are not on a common path |
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12-17-25 savo
carib... true... and that is what keeps maduro in power... even without exports (as it happened from 2017 to 2021... the country can manage eating what it produces.....
That is why I do not understand Trump's current policy which has the same same as the old policy that did not work plus the Gerald Ford outside Miraflores...
is it that difficult to sit down and find a way out that works for all parties... Trump always says he has no problem sitting down to talk with anybody... |
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12-17-25 carib
| Venezuela should be a net food exporter, given nature and logic. |
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12-17-25 savo
Colombia was downgraded by one notch to BB from BB+ by Fitch. The move reflects Fitch’s view that persistent large fiscal deficits and rising spending rigidities will keep Colombia's government debt on an upward path. The agency projects a central government deficit of 6.5% of GDP in 2025 and 7.5% in 2026, with general government debt rising to about 62.8% of GDP by 2027. Although interest costs in 2025 are temporarily reduced by below-par buybacks, the interest-to-revenue ratio is projected to rise again to around 15% in 2026, increasing public finances’ exposure to slower growth, higher borrowing costs, or currency depreciation. Fitch also flags reduced predictability of fiscal policy after the government invoked the fiscal rule’s escape clause and prevailing popular sentiment against tax initiatives or spending cuts. Additionally, approaching March 2026 congressional elections will also constrain President Gustavo Petro’s reforms amid legislative setbacks, court suspensions and weak congressional traction according to Fitch.
Its bonds were trading with a negative bias, with its 8% 2033s, at 107.78 yielding 6.61%. |
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12-17-25 carib
There goes the TACO theory?
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12-17-25 savo
| I wonder if the blockade is only for oil tankers or for any kind of imports... what is the plan of the neocons... turn veni into a concentration camp....?...starvation? |
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12-17-25 savo
victor.. you are right.. the numbers are not the same... i was referring to the kind of people... once one kills the first person becomes a murderer... once one steals the first apple becomes a thief
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12-17-25 victor
Reportan que otro jet privado casi choca en el aire con una aeronave de la Fuerza Aérea de EE.UU. cerca de Venezuela
CNN —
Transmisiones de radio revisadas por CNN detallan que los pilotos de un jet privado evitaron por poco una colisión con un avión cisterna de reabastecimiento de la Fuerza Aérea de Estados Unidos cerca de Venezuela el sábado, un día después de un incidente similar en las cercanías.
Los pilotos de un jet ejecutivo Falcon 900EX que volaba de Aruba a Miami informaron sobre la casi colisión a los controladores de tráfico aéreo en Curazao poco después del incidente la tarde del sábado, según el audio capturado por LiveATC.net. |
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12-17-25 victor
let's see what he has to say re vz
//
My Fellow Americans: I will be giving an ADDRESS TO THE NATION tomorrow night, LIVE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, at 9 P.M. EST. I look forward to “seeing” you then. It has been a great year for our Country, and THE BEST IS YET TO COME! |
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12-17-25 victor
savo, refreshing your memory
el banco no esta en venta, pero yo lo puedo expropiar..
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/v1xKvQyL7rk
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12-17-25 victor
sabo, no, they are not even.
chavez expropriated a lot of assets, many of usa companies.
citgo does not compensate. |
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12-17-25 savo
victor... in exchange of which they stole Citgo... so they are even...
as said... one does arbitrary detentions.. the other arbitrary killings... they are made of the same stuff...that is why they like each other and Maduro remains there. |
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12-17-25 victor
| merlino, i guess dt means nationalizations that took place |
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12-17-25 savo
merlino...
and yet the ones assassinating people in high sea is them
the corner in which they are painting themselves is getting smaller...
The EU just comes from stealing Russian assets... I guess they are next in Trump's list. |
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12-17-25 Merlino
President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered a total blockade of oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, declaring the Nicolás Maduro regime a foreign terrorist organization and accusing it of using stolen U.S. assets to finance terrorism, trafficking and other criminal activity.
"Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America," Trump said on Truth Social. "It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before – Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.
"The illegitimate Maduro Regime is using Oil from these stolen Oil Fields to finance themselves, Drug Terrorism, Human Trafficking, Murder, and Kidnapping," he continued. "For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION.
...............................................
Stolen from us?
Exon? |
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12-17-25 Merlino
Fox News @FoxNews
BREAKING: President Trump designates the "Venezuelan regime" a "FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION."
The president ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving the country. |
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12-16-25 carib
| VENEZUELA: Secretaries Rubio and Hegseth will brief lawmakers today on U.S. operations and strategic goals in the Caribbean, providing insight into potential next steps. Meanwhile, Congress is preparing votes on war powers resolutions aimed at restricting military engagement with Venezuela and other groups in the region, with key votes expected Wednesday and Thursday. These measures pose a real risk of passing given previous narrow margins, and while the President could veto them, approval might offer an easy off-ramp if hesitation exists on escalation. |
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12-16-25 carib
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12-16-25 pillz
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12-16-25 carib
| Pill: but the same 1MM+ order, OTC, can normally get executed in a matter of minutes.. or at worst during the day.. |
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12-16-25 pillz
I am no expert, but I do not think you can trade 1MM+ lots of veny bonds at good prices on the german exchanges. That is why the OTC market exists.
//
there where times that a lot traded on Frankfurt and Stuttgart, one could put a order for the week , and slowly they where done, btw, there was today a bid 24 for 1mm$... and 20k to sell for 29 |
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12-16-25 carib
An armada of four supertankers originally headed for Venezuela have reversed course following the seizure of a sanctioned tanker in Caribbean waters.
The vessels are the Panama-flagged Bella 1, which was sanctioned by the US for its involvement in the illicit transport of Iranian oil, and the tankers Seeker 8, Karina and Eurovictory, according to data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler.
Ship movements show that the Seeker 8, the Karina and the Eurovictory all turned around on Dec. 11 — a day after US forces seized a vessel off Venezuela’s coast. The Bella 1 hit reverse on Tuesday near the Caribbean island of Antigua and Barbuda, the data tracked by Bloomberg show. |
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12-16-25 savo
Incidentally.. how are Maduro's arbitrary detentions in Veni any worse than Trump's arbitrary killings in the Caribbean.
These two guys are made of the same material... they should understand each other easily. |
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12-16-25 savo
FWIW.. i still can't see how Trump will manage to get out of the corner Rubio and the renegades painted him into... but I am curious to see if prices continue climbing. So far so good...
...I would guess...but it can't last forever if bombs do not start falling on Caracas shopping malls and missiles enter the windows of Miraflores.
Easier would have been to take Maduro's proposal...3 years without sanctions and crude flowing to the US instead of China and India.
Incidentally...why didn't MCM take a regular flight to Oslo? Sorry... forgot Trump closed the air space. |
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12-16-25 carib
| I am no expert, but I do not think you can trade 1MM+ lots of veny bonds at good prices on the german exchanges. That is why the OTC market exists. |
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12-16-25 carib
| Pill: before the sanctions, Venezuela and PDVsa bonds were trading normally on european regulated exchanges, and all banks allowed clients to trade them. |
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12-16-25 pillz
in Italy, there are thousands of small bondholders unable to sell because their on-line brokers or banks do not operate on the OTC market.
//
and how they bought them ? like me via Frankfurt , Stuttgart etc... |
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12-16-25 carib
Pill: good luck. in Italy, there are thousands of small bondholders unable to sell because their on-line brokers or banks do not operate on the OTC market.
If your broker accepts to transfer the security to a third party you trust with a private banking account, you can try that route, but anyway it's compliance heavy. |
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12-16-25 pillz
| Carib, you know it represent now about 1% of my portfolio .... |
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12-16-25 pillz
| Carib, how I will open an acc by a private bank just for selling my pdvsa , I will not do it , I will try via Frankfurt or at keytrade bank ... and if not I will stay with the blonds , Inshallah ... |
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12-16-25 carib
| Pill: IB is not the broker for this kind of bonds. you need a private bank or a full service broker. |
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12-16-25 pillz
| Carib, yes I know , usually IB have it all , but not for Veny and pdvsa ;-( |
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12-16-25 carib
Pill: you must first hold the bonds with an intermediary who can trade OTC, or DVP.
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12-16-25 pillz
what changed your mind?
//
the situation , as I don't think if US force veny, there will be nothing left for the bondholders , and it is now above the price that i bought ... but I am still looking at how I will sell them, it's look not easy... |
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12-16-25 savo
| pillz...you were a seller at 50... what changed your mind? |
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12-16-25 pillz
| if someone is interested , i sell at 26.5 |
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12-16-25 pillz
the old way, in german exchanges the volume is minimal.
//
I know, I build it up in a few months |
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12-16-25 pillz
Pill: yesterday US prices were:
PDVSA 9 11/17/21
26.50
-
27.00
//
thank you ,,, |
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12-16-25 carib
Pill: yesterday US prices were:
PDVSA 9 11/17/21
26.50
-
27.00 |
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12-16-25 carib
| Pill: it's OTC, the old way, in german exchanges the volume is minimal. |
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12-16-25 pillz
| sooo, i suppose at 26 it is possible to do a deal |
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12-16-25 pillz
| in Frankfurt they are b/a 24/29 :-) |
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12-16-25 pillz
| but not IB , and I saw it now , Frankfurt borse is trading them also , i asked the question to bolero ??? |
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12-16-25 carib
Pill: PDVsa bonds trade OTC.
any decent Luxembourg or Swiss private bank or US broker trades them no problem. |
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12-16-25 pillz
unbelievable , bolero can't take a selling order for pdvsa , they have no correspondent
... , but I bought them on the Frankfurt stock exchange 8 years ago :-( , and IB don't accept them for trading , this Veny start to f___k me big way ... |
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12-16-25 carib
| Victor: managing the EU without sufficient political competences and the rule that decisions are taken by majority is an impossible task in current times. |
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12-16-25 victor
CNN —
Trinidad y Tobago anunció el lunes que permitirá que aviones militares de EE.UU. transiten por los aeropuertos del país en las próximas semanas, en medio de crecientes tensiones con la vecina Venezuela.
Según el ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores del país, EE.UU. indicó que los movimientos de las aeronaves serán “de naturaleza logística, facilitando el reabastecimiento y la rotación rutinaria de personal”.
El ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Sean Sobers, afirmó que la medida forma parte de los compromisos de la nación de dos islas para cooperar con EE.UU. en materia de seguridad regional.
En las últimas semanas, Estados Unidos ha realizado ejercicios militares e instalado un sistema de radar en el país caribeño, que Trinidad y Tobago señaló que tiene como objetivo vigilar a los traficantes de drogas en el mar. |
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12-16-25 savo
María Corina inicia el largo proceso de deshojar la margarita. Dice que prepara su regreso, sin ponerse a esperar una intervención militar que nos haga libre, porque eso forma parte del Nobel mismo, el que le han entregado… Además, siendo ella acreedora a ese Nobel tan poderosos, ¡quién osaría tocarla!
El dilema escuece el alma de Occidente. ¿Qué hacer ahora con María Corina, ese prospecto, esa rutilante Zelensky de América Latina que puede devolverle a EE UU, no sólo el Caribe sino todo el Sur global?
¿Será su destino el tener que regresar a Venezuela para seguir haciendo su papel de sufrida, de perseguida y acosada, de atormentada y sacrificada por la libertad? Volver otra vez, dejando sus hijos lejos, con su madre en los confines del mundo, manteniendo ella incólume la lucha contra los horrores de la dictadura chavista-comunista. Volver a Venezuela para entonces poder hacer reportes semanales para las redes, Bloomberg, CNN, Fox News, TNT24, BBC, NYT, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, "El País", ABC, La Razón, El Mundo,… Para decir, "la libertad está cerca", "falta muy poco", "está llegando el final"…
María Corina dice que el 60% de los venezolanos le metemos a la droga y que los mariners deberán actuar para darnos la libertad y para que esa droga que nosotros consumismo sin merecerla, llegue a su destino, ¡al Norte!
Pero su dilema es sangrante: ¿Qué hacer? ¿To be or Not To be? No puede ser que ella tenga que coger el derrotero de don Juan Guaidó. Miles le aconsejan que regresen y miles le ruegan que no lo haga. Muchos le piden que goce el millón de dólares del Nobel, recorriendo el mundo, visitando a los reyes de Inglaterra, a los de España, haciendo que lucha por liberar a Venezuela, así como lo hace Leopoldo López y la Tintori (con todo lo que se robaron de Monómeros y CITGO), Guaidó y Del Vechio, Julio Borges y Antonio Ledezma, John Goicochea, con los burdos premios Friedman…, Sajarov, del parlamento de la Unión Europea.
Los asesores de Trump le piden que vuelva a su grotesca gozadera con su fulana clandestinidad, con una clandestinidad en la que el Estado venezolano sabe perfectamente donde se encuentra.
Los medios no dejan de interrogarse: "Qué pasa con la oposición venezolana cuando su estrella política y mediática esté tan lejos y quizá no pueda regresar?" Después de esa heroica odisea, de esa gesta histórica que ha dejado despaturrada a la de Leopoldo López, a la de Simonovis, Luisa Ortega Díaz y Antonio Ledezma. Dios mío, todos los escenarios ahora se presentan imprevisibles, dice el mundo occidental: "¿QUÉ OCURRE SI LA OPOSITORA MÁS LEGITIMADA DE LOS ÚLTIMOS AÑOS PARA DESTRONAR AL CHAVISMO NO LOGRA VOLVER?"
Los más expertos analistas y colaboradores doña María Corina conjeturan que ella pasará un tiempo en el extranjero, APROVECHANDO EL TIRÓN DEL GALARDÓN PARA PONER A VENEZUELA EN EL CENTRO DEL TABLERO MUNDIAL. ¿Pero cuánto será eso? ¿Meses, semanas o días? ¿O años? O décadas como le ha pasado a Reza Pahlavi (II). Bueno, si el chavismo le permitió que saliera, los más probable es que le permitan que regrese.
Doña María Corina ha sostenida que su intención es regresar cuanto antes: "NO DIRÉ CUÁNDO NI CÓMO SE HARÁ, PERO HARÉ TODO LO POSIBLE PARA PODER REGRESAR Y TAMBIÉN PARA PONER FIN A ESTA TIRANÍA MUY PRONTO… VOLVERÉ CUANDO SE DEN LAS MEDIDAS DE SEGURIDAD, SIGA O NO MADURO EN EL PODER. INVADAN O NO INVANDAN LAS FUERZAS DELORDEN INTERNACIONAL".
En su discurso, leído por su hija en Oslo, ella sostuvo: "EL MUNDO HA QUEDADO MARAVILLADO POR LO QUE HEMOS LOGRADO. Y PRONTO PRESENCIARÁ UNA DE LAS IMÁGENES MÁS CONMOVEDORAS DE NUESTRO TIEMPO: EL REGRESO DE LOS NUESTROS A CASA".
Pero cada vez que le dan ánimo a sus seguidores, ella cambia repentinamente de rumbo: "AÚN ES DIFÍCIL IMAGINAR EN QUÉ TÉRMINOS. Los expertos no dejan de insistir: "EL ESCENARIO QUE SE ABRE AHORA PARA MACHADO ES INCIERTO Y HAY MÁS PREGUNTAS QUE RESPUESTAS. ¿HABRÁ UN CAMBIO DE RÉGIMEN EN POCO TIEMPO COMO ELLA VATICINA?, ¿QUÉ PASA SI ESO NO OCURRE Y ELLA NO PUEDE VOLVER?, ¿SU LIDERAZGO SE DESINFLARÁ EN EL EXILIO COMO LES HA PASADO A TANTOS OTROS?"
Sin duda que hay pánico en el circo.
Pero a ella no le quedará otro camino que regresar a Venezuela: "QUIZÁ EL ÚNICO CONSENSO ES QUE LA APUESTA DE MACHADO FUE EXTRAORDINARIAMENTE ARRIESGADA PORQUE PONE EN RIESGO SU ACTIVO MÁS VALIOSO: INTENTAR DERROCAR A MADURO DESDE DENTRO".
El experto Christopher Sabatini, de Chatham House, advierte: "sin la presencia física en Venezuela, Machado perdería la conexión emocional que la convirtió en la figura opositora más influyente de los últimos años. Los venezolanos quieren alguien que esté con ellos, que sufra lo que sufren ellos. Si está fuera —y nada cambia— van a acabar buscando otra figura. Quedarse es un símbolo muy fuerte en un país del que han salido ocho millones de venezolanos. ¿Será acaso que ella se resignará sólo a ser también la migrante número 8.000.001? Imposible".
Phil Gunson, analista senior de Crisis Group sostiene: "Es muy importante que María Corina esté en Venezuela. FORMA PARTE DE SU MARCA". Para Gunson, la permanencia de Machado dentro del país ha sido parte fundamental de su identidad política, especialmente en contraste con otros líderes opositores que, tras exiliarse, perdieron influencia en el escenario interno. Ella dice que la transición ya empezó, que Maduro no tiene alternativa, pero el problema es si esto falla", reflexiona el analista que vive desde hace 26 años en Venezuela. "Si esto falla y ella se queda fuera, se arriesga a la pérdida de relevancia", agrega1.
"La politóloga Marisela Betancourt sí ve en este escenario el peligro de una "guaidoización" del liderazgo de Machado. Es decir, que la legitimidad internacional —amplificada ahora por el Nobel— no compense la pérdida de incidencia real dentro del país. Para Betancourt, la fuerza de la clandestinidad de Machado se estaba agotando en cualquier caso. "Era una parálisis frente a la realidad. Ella tiene un liderazgo muy importante, pero se han puesto todas las apuestas en Estados Unidos, gobernado por un presidente irracional2".
Doña Marisela Betancourt sostiene que LA SALIDA DE MACHADO NO FUE POSIBLE SIN ALGÚN TIPO DE ACUERDO CON EL CHAVISMO. Y defiende que al régimen le convenía su salida: UNA DIRIGENTE A LA QUE LLAMA "TERRORISTA" PERO QUE NO PUEDE DETENER SIN QUEDAR EN EVIDENCIA, Y QUE FUERA DEL PAÍS PIERDE SU CAPACIDAD DE ACCIÓN DIRECTA EN UNA SOCIEDAD FRACTURADA. "AL SALIR, NO HAY MARCHA ATRÁS" asegura. |
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12-16-25 victor
carib, what is your opinion of kaja and ursula?
are they doing a good job?
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