09-10-26 carib
| I self-correct. I was mistaken, proving my stated ignorance. It was South Yemen the one who liked the soviets. |
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09-10-26 carib
Spal: I do not disagree. I would just note that Iran, if not led by a fanatic regime, would have little interest in messing with Yemen, and if the iranians had never provided aid to North Yemen, probably the current circumstances would be very different.
I repeat I am an ignoramus in Yemeni history. But was North Yemen not always in cahoots with the "axis of evil"?
Maybe I am mistaken. I trust the Israelis know way better than myself. |
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09-10-26 spal
| To be clear without Iran, the Houthis would lose their ability to shut down global shipping lanes etc. However, they would remain the dominant political and military force across northern Yemen due to their local organizational capacity, geographic advantage, and tribal control. They are not an Iranian projection rather an alignment. |
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09-10-26 spal
| The Houthis come by anti-Zionism naturally as they do their opposition to Western hegemony. Iran certainly did not teach or order them to hate Israel. Iran recognized an existing alignment and leveraged it. |
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09-10-26 spal
I tend to believe that the Houthis would be irrelevant without iranian or other external support.
====
Simple questions - was Ali Abdullah Saleh a puppet?
Yes or no?
Is the official government of Yemen a western creation?
Yes or no? |
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09-10-26 carib
| SPAL. thank for the insight. But, even in the light of what you wrote, the Houthis would have no grudge against Israel, except orders coming from Tehran. I understand they have grudges against the saudis, and accept the point the saudi regime stems from a US creation. |
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09-10-26 carib
Barbarians.. was a term created by the Greeks to describe the persians, who, at the time, already had a large and rather efficient empire. The term referred to the way the persians spoke.
I tend to believe that the Houthis would be irrelevant without iranian or other external support. But I never was in Yemen and remain ignorant on the matter. |
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09-10-26 spal
| Beware tech stocks now ... |
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09-10-26 spal
| BTW how I make money is almost always in contradistinction to what I would like to believe at core politically - I do realize that what are I would like to believe and what actually is are two very different things. To survive this contradiction I have concluded it is easier if you are rich. |
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09-10-26 spal
BTW framing North Yemenis as un-civilized overlooks centuries of architecture, law, and culture.
Ansarallah's ability to hold territory and project naval threats stems from organizational discipline, tactical adaptation, strategic geography, and ruthless internal security—not primitive lawlessness.
Countering their power effectively requires accurate strategic assessment rather than dismissive tropes FWIW. |
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09-10-26 spal
Spal, please explain for dummies, why?:
"If I had to pick ... Saudi or Houthi ... I pick Houthi. Just a personal preference ."
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Amigo - Northern Yemen was ruled for 1000 years by the groups that form the basis of the Houthis. The core of their insurgent movement was a reaction reaction against state-sponsored, Saudi-backed Salafi/Wahhabi proselytization (via the Saleh regime) in their traditional heartland of Saada. They were also economically marginalized by the same people
As you know the Saleh regime is a western (and this includes Saudi/UAE) puppet regime. It is highly corrupt and does little for the people it rules.
The Houthis as far as I can see are a legitimate insurgency.
My opinion of the Saudis on the other hand is low. They are nothing without oil wealth and with it are a savage regime who cut journalists up into small pieces if they are challenged. You can generalize this attitude. They fight wholly through merceneries and the support of hired hands.
At core I always lean towards the underdog. This is definitely the Houthis.
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09-10-26 carib
| CITGO $$$ should be going to.. our pockets. |
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09-10-26 Merlino
s citgo money still going to Guaido's pockets?
.............................
https://noticierodigital.com/2026/09/delcy-rodriguez-avanza-para-recuperar-el-control-de-citgo-segun-reuters/ |
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09-10-26 savo
| is citgo money still going to Guaido's pockets? |
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09-10-26 savo
| nothing seems to be good for veni oil and us...we've been stack at these levels for months |
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09-10-26 carib
| Bajo la supervisión de la oposición venezolana, Citgo ha mantenido su rentabilidad. Durante el segundo trimestre de este año, la refinadora alcanzó una utilidad neta de 936 millones de dólares, frente a los 100 millones de dólares registrados en el mismo periodo de 2025. Este resultado coincide con la reactivación de los envíos de petróleo venezolano a sus instalaciones. |
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09-10-26 carib
| Houthi news good for veny oil, I suppose. |
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09-10-26 savo
crude at 105 and veni down
a riddle wrapped in a mistery... |
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09-10-26 carib
| National Resistance Front forces, a coalition of anti-Houthi forces led by former Houthi ally and senior member of the Yemeni government, Tareq Saleh, have obtained intelligence and maps revealing an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plan for a phased advance and takeover of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Iran International reported, citing a Wednesday Yemeni military media announcement. |
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09-10-26 CAC
Spal, please explain for dummies, why?:
"If I had to pick ... Saudi or Houthi ... I pick Houthi. Just a personal preference ." |
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09-10-26 carib
| I have zero local knowledge, but I do not think the north yemenis are civilised people saddled with an unsavoury regime, but rather closer to "barbarians". hence the issue is not "liberating" them, but rather containing or utterly defeating. Not clear who will take up such task. |
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 spal
TRMD and NAT schtock behavior indicating that both gulf straits are now significantly impaired for at least 18 mths.
Official Schpal stock gleaning. |
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09-10-26 spal
mere paperwork?
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Likely |
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09-10-26 carib
| What about the saudi-egyptian-pakistani mutual defence agreement? mere paperwork? |
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09-10-26 spal
When an irregular force captures territory along a contested coastline (previously held by UAE-backed forces or the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council), the primary threat isn't immediate ground counter-attack—it's local counter-reconnaissance, sabotage, and forward spotters providing targeting data for coalition air power.
Role of Interior Ministry Forces: These are not frontline shock troops; they are specialized paramilitary/internal security units. Deploying 3,000 personnel into the Hays–Mocha rear area allows Ansarallah to establish checkpoints, secure logistics lines, root out local intelligence networks, and harden launching sites for anti-ship missiles and uncrewed surface vessels (USVs).
Creating a Sovereign Buffer: By policing and holding Hays–Mocha, Ansarallah effectively creates a continuous, fortified coastwise strip directly overlooking the narrowest choking points of the Bab al-Mandeb. |
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09-10-26 spal
| If I had to pick ... Saudi or Houthi ... I pick Houthi. Just a personal preference ... please inform the CIA just in case. |
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09-10-26 spal
The world belongs to those who go out into the desert and fight for it and not to those who play with video game controllers.
A Schpalism for the new age. |
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09-10-26 spal
Ansarullah have deployed 3,000 Interior Ministry forces to help stabilize and consolidate control over the newly captured territory in the Hays - Mocha area, southwest Yemen. x.com/officialrninte…
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Houthi Toothi Do ... my new tanker war cry. |
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09-10-26 spal
| Adding to tanker positions |
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 carib
Saudi Arabia told Opec it produced 6.2mn barrels a day in August, the lowest monthly figure in 2026 and 23 per cent lower than in July, according to a report published by the oil cartel on Thursday.
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09-10-26 spal
| Same on NAT - paid 27 cents and market shrugged and continued to buy |
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09-10-26 spal
| Paid $2.40 today and shares did not fully discount this. |
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 spal
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09-10-26 spal
| The development forces the US, Coalition, and regional powers into an immediate, high-stakes military escalation to push Houthi forces off the island before they can establish an integrated defensive perimeter. |
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09-10-26 spal
| Control of Mayun converts what was previously an asymmetric stand-off threat (missiles, anti-ship drones, and uncrewed surface vessels launched from the mainland) into direct physical domain denial over the strait. |
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09-10-26 spal
BREAKING!!! Ansarallah forces have reportedly LANDED ON MAYUN ISLAND — directly inside the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Clashes are reportedly underway as Yemeni forces attempt to seize the extraordinarily strategic island, also known as Perim, which sits at the narrowest section of the strait between Yemen and Djibouti.
Mayun hosts an airbase linked to the UAE, with a runway capable of handling military aircraft and claims of an Israeli presence on the island have circulated for years.
Control of Dhubab and Perim Island is key to gaining control of Bab al-Mandab.
If confirmed, this is a huge development.
===
Agree |
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09-10-26 spal
- Houthis are about to capture BAM strait area and kicking the behind of Saudis
Houthis - brilliant move for them.
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09-10-26 leopardo
| You buy K92 much better no premium no margins and leveraged investment on Gold |
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09-09-26 spal
Houthis are advancing in Al-Wazi'yah, Southwestern #Yemen
That puts them at about 40 miles from Bab Al-Mandab Strait!
Their leverage on the Red Sea could increase. |
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09-09-26 carib
Savo: I think you can buy Gold futures june 2032 (five years into the future) for 5320$ an ounce, or about 20% more expensive than current price of 4440$. if you invest 4440$ in UST bonds, by 2032 you end up more or less with the same 5300$ outcome.
If you expect gold to go up dramatically, I guess you can make loads of money with options, I suppose. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Savo - as you know I play risky equities but without leverage - so I am also tuned to the macro dynamic across the system. I see fragility ... you see more ... this is all that separates us. |
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09-09-26 savo
spal...i understand that dynamic...but my bet is that we are in a different world now and that well oiled dynamic will break and gold and silver ( and copper, etc..) will be the only refuge.
Let's see.. so far my precious metals portfolio is doing well within my expectations but not as well as i would have expected |
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09-09-26 savo
seems it is going to be death by inflation AND dead by financial crisis
gold should be at 50k.. yet... it isn't |
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09-09-26 spal
Staging:
Early Repression Phases:
Industrial commodities (oil, copper, fertilizer) consistently outperform gold because real economic demand and supply-chain bottlenecks force industrial prices upward long before monetary panic sets in.
Late-Stage Repression: Gold catches up and surges when real yields turn deeply negative or when trust in paper sovereign debt breaks down completely.
We are not near late stage. But it is fun to jibber this way and makes good headlines. |
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09-09-26 spal
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09-09-26 spal
Savo - you do you the following us the dynamic I am trading on:
When central banks allow nominal bond yields to adjust upward (even if lagging true inflation), paper bonds yield a positive nominal payout. That acts as a temporary brake on gold.
Conversely, energy and metals perform based on physical tightness, generating strong cash flows through commodity producers regardless of yield movements.
We are under a regime known as financial repression - get long commodity linked plays. |
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09-09-26 savo
seems it is going to be death by inflation AND dead by financial crisis
gold should be at 50k.. yet... it isn't |
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09-09-26 carib
Treasury yields are rising to new highs after investors expressed disappointment that the Treasury Department's expanded bond buyback program isn't larger.
The 10-year yield approached 4.85%, its highest level since 2023, after Treasury said it would buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt at its Thursday buyback operation. Some expected a larger buyback, which could have calmed yields down a bit more.
WSJ |
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09-09-26 spal
| NAT provides asymmetric mid-size upside. Its 100% Suezmax fleet is uniquely tailored to Caribbean, US Gulf, and West African routes that benefit directly from trade adjustments. |
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09-09-26 carib
| Not sure about AI trends, but in human students I (PISA scores) China is number 1 or number 2, globally. The USA is number 13 or 14. |
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09-09-26 spal
Impact on ASC: Avoiding the Suez Canal adds 10 to 14 sailing days per voyage. This absorbs global vessel capacity, effectively shrinking the net supply of available MR/chemical tankers and pushing spot rates higher across both Atlantic and Pacific basins.
With respect to dilutents ... Even if Ardmore’s specific vessels are not performing the US Gulf-to-Venezuela leg directly, every MR tanker pulled into dedicated short-haul USG–Venezuela diluent runs reduces the available pool of MRs servicing US Gulf export routes to South America, West Africa, or Europe—raising spot rates across the entire Atlantic basin. |
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09-09-26 spal
Houthi targeting of commercial shipping forced long-haul clean product and chemical trade between Asia/Middle East and Europe to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
AKA the Houthi-Pokey
You put your right foot in, you take your right foot out, you put your right foot in and you shake it all about. You do the houthi pokey and you turn yourself around. That’s what it’s all about. |
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09-09-26 spal
PPIH
PERMA-PIPE INTL HLDG
31.24 (+7.24%) |
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09-09-26 spal
ASC
ARDMORE SHIPPING COR
Adding
Ardmore Shipping (NYSE: ASC) operates in a sweet spot that bridges standard clean petroleum products (CPP) and liquid chemical shipping.
Because their fleet consists primarily of MR product tankers and IMO 2/3 coated chemical tankers (approx. 25k to 50k dwt), they benefit directly from the same geopolitically driven tonne-mile expansion lifting broader product tankers, while capturing premium spot rates in specialized chemical trades. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Holding large position in TRMD ... I think it should hold fairly well through the dividend distribution tomorrow (although these are notorious for getting oversold), This div is very large. Pricing power is holding for the entire fleet - probably improving from historic high levels and I think this situation holds for 6-12 months ... |
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09-09-26 spal
| Slow adding more NAT ... suezmax fleet to pull crude into the med and around africa ... |
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09-09-26 spal
| ALVOF - USD 9 might be fair value for year end ... certainly pushing towards it now. |
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09-09-26 spal
| ALVOF ... heavy and adding |
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09-09-26 spal
| PPIH ... pipes in the Middle East and for Data Center cooling ... minor add ... developing ... no rush, but on track. |
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09-09-26 spal
| Got out without a hitch - thanks Panas! |
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09-09-26 panasonic
"Heathrow seems ok today"
Bon voyage! |
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09-09-26 panasonic
"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US faces dire consequences if it loses out in the AI race with China"
Took them 3 years to understand what Musk said since day one :-( |
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09-09-26 carib
IMHO Veny should restructure into sort of new Brady bonds, secured by oil revenues from the US.25 years duration
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09-09-26 spal
| Cash (dated) Brent is now trading almost $108 so physical markets are much tighter than futures exchange screens are showing. Recap of Iran situation so far this week |
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09-09-26 victor
savo, speaking of..
Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned the US faces dire consequences if it loses out in the AI race with China, highlighting the angst in Washington about its rival's tech advances.
"There is no day after tomorrow if China wins at this," Bessent said at a Breitbart News event in Washington on Tuesday, indicating also that the US's large defense budget would fail to protect the nation. "If they were to pull away from us on AI, then nothing else would matter."
The comments appear aimed at some voices in the US upset that large data center projects are getting built in their backyards. Late last month, President Donald Trump warned that a growing public backlash to the projects in the US poses an economic threat and risks giving China the upper hand in AI.
In China, many new projects are going up far from big cities in less populated regions in the north and northwest.
Bessent's remarks also highlight worries in the US about open-weight Chinese models that are nearly as powerful as American versions at a fraction of the cost for the user. That's happening even though the US has tried to deny China access to its most advanced tech.
Also on Tuesday, US government agencies said Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., DeepSeek, Moonshot AI and other China-based AI companies "extracted billions of tokens across millions of exchanges/requests from US frontier AI models," including variants of Anthropic PBC's Claude, Alphabet Inc.'s Gemini and SpaceXAI's Grok since at least late 2024.
Tokens are units of data processed by models during training and inference. They enable prediction, generation and reasoning.
The actions were potentially taken "with Chinese government awareness," the Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Security Agency and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency said in a statement.
Reuters has reported that the US and China were preparing to discuss AI safety risks in mid-September, talks that if they happened would come just before Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump in Washington on Sept. 24.
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09-09-26 victor
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09-09-26 spal
CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers, Sept. 8, after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a U.S. Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The U.S. warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.
Boom, boom, boom, boom
I want you in my room
Let's spend the night together
From now until forever
Boom, boom, boom, boom
Vengaboys |
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09-09-26 spal
China dropped oil buying 41% February to July. They’ve been quietly buying oil cargoes through August. Now they are going to bid up every tanker cargo globally until November
Boss move by Chickitty China |
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09-09-26 spal
| Chinese Oil Demand Unexpectedly Soars, Sending Shanghai Crude Above $100, With Brent Prices Set To Follow |
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09-09-26 spal
| Meanwhile, refined products pricing has increased much more than crude oil pricing, increasing the crack spread for refiners, allowing freight costs to rise to levels that would normally be unacceptable to refiners. |
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09-09-26 spal
Meanwhile, refined products pricing has increased much more than crude oil pricing, increasing the crack spread for refiners, allowing freight costs to rise to levels that would normally be unacceptable to refiners.
TRMD
Note it goes ex-div in Europe today and USA tomorrow ($2.40). |
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09-09-26 spal
The Baltic Exchange’s global suezmax index is 2.7 times its level one year ago and the aframax index is two times higher. The global VLCC index is 7.1 times higher.
Still holding tanker positions - adding
Still holding oil & LNG infra positions - indeed adding |
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09-09-26 spal
https://x.com/gmjournalist/status/2097470273888928027?s=46
Excellent update on tanker rates.
Heathrow seems ok today - gracias a Dios |
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09-09-26 savo
exactly victor..only a fool can do the bidding on an economy ignorant like dt.
Have you hear the moronic reverence with which he talks to or about dt?
yes sir.. of course sir... you are right sir... |
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09-09-26 leopardo
Very bonds will continue climbing.
Smoothly |
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09-09-26 victor
savo, the fool disguised as Treasury secretary not taken seriously by the market.
//
according to dt, all these guys that work for him simply do his bidding..
so it's not a really reflection on this guy, but on dt himself. |
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09-09-26 victor
| vzla bonds continue going up.. interesting. |
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