10-01-26 spal
gifts is my wife's department...
clearly she and my wife have had a conversation!! |
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10-01-26 spal
i am fed up of dinners too ! :-)))
===
Likewise and I have become a pretty good cook - which should be taught as a compulsory subject in schools. |
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10-01-26 spal
On the back of an envelope, could we say in the US nowadays real rates are 3% and net rental return to unleveraged owners is 2%?
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Amateur - it is hard for me to compare to averages. I run my RE as a business. I have a special tax status as a "real estate professional" which allows me to write off many kinds of expenses (for example my companies write off my health insurance premiums).
I hold everything via a trust and thus all levels (including future generations) are protected from capital gains.
I am highly selective, self manage and can do most repairs myself (although I do selectively pay others for some work - the trick of doing it yourself is that it is what is called an enclosed economy).
I can still almost now obtain what is known as the 1% rule. This means that total monthly rents must be 1% of the total cost.
Thus if it costs 100,000 then monthly rents must be 1000. That means they are 12,000 per year.
Now to insure 100,000 worth of RE in my market would cost 500 a year and property taxes on 100,000 would be max 2000 p.a.
So net operating income would be 12,000 minus 2,500 - call it 3500 including a buffer for lawn care and maintenence.
That leaves 8,500 which is 8.5% of 100,000.
That 8.5% is your cap rate (this is what commercial brokers throw around).
If financing costs are 7% it means that an 8.5% deal must be cash flow positive even at 7% interest costs.
I like to start always with positive cash flow otherwise I do not do the deal. This kind of thing is not available in many markets.
I currently expect 3-4% total appreciation. It has been greater - most things I have doubled in value since Covid.
So if you have 3/1 leverage your annual appreciation is 4 times 3.5% or 14%. You also pick up a bit on debt paid down and remember that all my deals are cash flow positive.
Recall also they are tax protected and that I am writing off expenses.
Jokes aside but I do not get out of bed for anything less than 20% p.a. Otherwise sleeping is just too pleasurable.
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10-01-26 savo
pana... i am fed up of dinners too ! :-)))
gifts is my wife's department... she seems to think that apple "pays" ! |
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10-01-26 panasonic
"In this scheme of things... medical insurance is a number."
Seems that your expenses are cut dramatically.
My biggest expense is trips/dinners/gifts with kids and grand-kids, second housing and health care.
Housing is kind of optional, could sell and rent similar at a fraction if sell and allocate at current interest rates.
Most people in USA have mortgage rates locked below 4%, so they are not in a hurry to move out. |
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10-01-26 panasonic
Carib, my mother is 95 but in clinical bed :-(
Grand-grand kids jumping all over her place, watching TV programs and eating chocolate ice-cream, call it a day. |
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10-01-26 panasonic
| Spal, that is what I call a conviction trade. |
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10-01-26 savo
amateur... could we say in the US nowadays real rates are 3%
what rates are you referring to? |
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10-01-26 amateur
"ILLEGALLY"
Journalists tend to believe war is a legal contest... |
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10-01-26 amateur
Spal, if you have leverage its another story. Rents could eventually grow lower than interest charge.
Not for ever, though. Landlords will not keep expanding assets that yield below real interest cost.
On the back of an envelope, could we say in the US nowadays real rates are 3% and net rental return to unleveraged owners is 2%?
Each market is different, but what I see in Miami condos is RE taxes and HOA dues and insurance and broker fees consume > 60% of gross rent. Income tax nobody calculates because they think it will be deferred forever...
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10-01-26 spal
LOCAL SOURCES: SUPERTANKER WITH A CAPACITY OF 2.5 MILLION BARRELS, ILLEGALLY TRANSITING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, STRUCK APPROXIMATELY 8 KILOMETERS OFF THE COAST OF OMAN, CURRENTLY ON FIRE - MEHR NEWS
Whoops |
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10-01-26 carib
| The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.28 per cent as of October 1, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from a week ago, Freddie Mac said on Thursday. |
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10-01-26 spal
Spal, "rentals are still fully occupied"
Sleep like a baby. Full occupancy as far as the eye can see. Renting is much cheaper than buying nowadays.
===
My loans are now resetting in the 6.5% range, but I am not over extended and rent increases are still out running this effect. I am still open to deals and did one in June. I am still spending on improvements and put in a few new driveways this year.
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10-01-26 spal
| ALVOF ... my advice to management ... giddy-up. |
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10-01-26 spal
Update on ALVOF position according to Gemini:
At your position size, you are not treated like a casual retail trader by management.
You can request direct 1-on-1 Q&A calls with Investor Relations or management (such as CEO Corey Ruttan or CFO Patrick B. Ward) to discuss capital allocation, dividend sustainability, well-completion timelines (like the 183-H2 results), or Western Canadian growth plans.
LOL |
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10-01-26 carib
Renting is much cheaper than buying nowadays.
As it should be, I guess.. |
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10-01-26 amateur
Spal, "rentals are still fully occupied"
Sleep like a baby. Full occupancy as far as the eye can see. Renting is much cheaper than buying nowadays. |
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10-01-26 carib
Accenture shares surged 22 per cent on Thursday after the world’s largest publicly traded consulting group said its revenues could accelerate this year, confounding fears that AI would destroy demand for its services.
Interesting...
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10-01-26 carib
“Reality is catching up with us,” French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu warned this week on the eve of presenting the 2027 budget.
Hope it catches up fast.. |
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10-01-26 carib
| I thought those toilets were on The Gerald Ford.. |
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10-01-26 savo
The USS Theodore Roosevelt
did they repair the toilets ? |
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10-01-26 carib
% of income is subjective.
actual cost is objective.
As long as health costs less than 3% of income, it's sustainable very long term, I guess... |
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10-01-26 carib
The Trump administration has decided to deploy a third aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with a second Marine division, a US official told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt and an additional division of US Marines will deploy to US Central Command's area of operations. |
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10-01-26 savo
pana... what percentage of your yearly expenses goes to health insurance?
don't know... but i can say that we have changed our way of life radically... we spend most time alternating between two locations plus the occasional visit to children where they live.
I do not like to travel anymore... whenever I am out of home all I want is to be back... not interested in tourism... the benefit of knowing some other town does not compensate the hassle of the airplanes, airports, driving... ubers..etc...
I do not have to pay schools or universities anymore... ... don't have to pay for housing other than maintenance... given the weather where I live I have enough shorts and short sleeve shirts for the next 200 years
I ve been asked to change our cars and find the task absolutely appalling.. so I refused... they took me the other day to a car dealers tour... and the only car that I liked is the one I already have... but newer... why do i need a new car that looks exactly the same but with Bluetooth? I do not listen to music in the car so i do not need Bluetooth.
In this scheme of things... medical insurance is a number. |
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10-01-26 carib
| PS: when you are 100, your "kids" might be approaching 80.. |
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10-01-26 carib
Panas: wise choice.
My impression is there are many places that beat the USA, in that respect. |
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10-01-26 panasonic
Spal, seems that in USA hospice can be covered via insurance, and of course, during last tranche of life decision of one's destiny in hands of kids.
The luck component is important, my sister & me decided which option was best for my mother, she is now living in Malaga where her saving's income surpasses her cost of life. |
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10-01-26 carib
| Spal: my, limited and indirect, experience with US health services and insurance.. is that they are essentially a scam, compared with similar services in several other countries. |
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10-01-26 spal
| I have no intention of moving abroad, but again I "understand" this system - for what that is worth. |
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10-01-26 spal
Carib - when you hit 65 here you transition automatically to a state supported system that it much less expensive than private health insurance - called Medicare (it is not substantially means tested). You also set aside a reserve for long term disability (as I have).
It is foreseeable and manageable. But only if you have resources and good planning.
If you fall through the cracks then you go into Medicaid - you get help and are bundled into a cheap hospice for long term care as you fade out ... but first you must have no assets.
I know how this system works. Many simply find out. But as in life planning and prep help. Unfortunately luck also.
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10-01-26 carib
SPAL: IMHO it make sense for a US person, upon retirement, to move abroad exactly for the said reason..
US medical costs are a large multiple of non-us ones. |
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10-01-26 panasonic
"their allocation in UST is probably packed and resold"
Sorry I meant their mortgage portfolio... |
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10-01-26 panasonic
About banks, their allocation in UST is probably packed and resold.
If not, the mortgage rate they charged has been paired with a same term UST, so they make money on the spread independently of rate.
Most personal loans are with rates 13% and above (after fees and hidden tricks), so yes its a very profitable biz. |
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10-01-26 panasonic
| Savo, what percentage of your yearly expenses goes to health insurance? |
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10-01-26 spal
Question to Colores: is medical insurance worth its cost?
===
No - I have been to the doctor twice in about 45 years ... but if you have a serious issue in the US they will bankrupt you ... so you have to have it.
It is about the worse system anyone can design.
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10-01-26 savo
amateur... i understand the banks can hold loans at par if qualified as held to maturity...
but i think that is only for banks... not for funds...
these loses could wipe out the entire regional banking sector.... |
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10-01-26 amateur
Savo, big issue. "where are all those low rate mortgages... there must be somewhere... some entities are losing big"
Government entities like Fannie and Freddie and Xxxxie own aa lot of it. but still, a) another lot must be sitting in fixed icome funds, so the loss passes to old savers and holders of 60/40 portfolios; and b) anothe lot mus be in the books of some banks and hedgefunds that made the wrong bet, someone will crash eventually.
And long duration UST issued at 2, 3 and 4% are also sitting someplace...
Remember when the first leg of rising rates came, BofA was caught holding some billions of long paper, hidden in the books as "held to maturity" and therefore not adjusted to market in their financials...then came Sillicon Valey crash, and that was 2023.
We might see the corpses of this wave any time... |
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10-01-26 savo
but also they increase premium by age
yes pana... but i have to pay it... |
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10-01-26 panasonic
| I definitely need medical insurance in USA, one event can cost millions. |
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10-01-26 carib
| Maybe insurance for the very old.. should be paid by the heirs, in self-interest.. |
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10-01-26 carib
Savo: in a way.. it's a sort of win-win.
That said, I remember once discussing the issue with a top US economist, and he said that 50% of total medical costs for the average US person occurs during the last 6 months of life of the said person.. implying that 50% is not really worth it, on average.
It depends on jurisdictions, of course, but it is possible (outside of the USA) that only insurance covering major surgery or serious accidents is worth its cost.
Opinions welcome. |
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10-01-26 panasonic
| Savo, insurance is tricky bcz part is inflation, but also they increase premium by age. |
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10-01-26 savo
if medical insurance is not worth the cost means one is healthy...
i am happy for medical insurance not to be worth the cost! |
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10-01-26 carib
Question to Colores: is medical insurance worth its cost?
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10-01-26 spal
--Danaos Raises Quarterly Dividend to $1 a Share From $0.90 a Share; Declares Special Dividend of $5 a Share, Both Payable Oct. 22 to Holders of Record on Oct. 13.
$5 special ... Tankers go BRRRRRR |
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10-01-26 carib
| Most respondents opted for meat grinder. |
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10-01-26 carib
We asked the other day whether hopping into bonds now would represent a savvy bit of dip-buying or the investment equivalent to jumping into a meat grinder.
Ft |
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10-01-26 savo
pana.. next month i get the bill for my 2027 annual medical insurance.. i use that as a proxy.
last year it went up 10.8%. |
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10-01-26 savo
at what levels will G7 rates peak?
we need to know first at what level will inflation peak |
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10-01-26 panasonic
| Spal, how much is yearly hike in rents? |
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10-01-26 panasonic
Savo, let's wait and clip on the meantime.
What's your personal inflation YoY?
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10-01-26 leopardo
| Gilts above 6% free risk(duration excepted) above 6% not bad. |
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10-01-26 carib
UK gilts 6%..
question is: at what levels will G7 rates peak?
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10-01-26 savo
| pana. i am a bond holder so i hope you are right...but i am much more pessimistic than you on the inflation front. |
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10-01-26 spal
ex-Wisconsin of course :-)
===
LOL ... My rentals are still fully occupied - gracias a dios. |
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10-01-26 savo
UK Is First Big Economy With 6% Bond Yield Since Euro Crisis
By George Nixon
October 1, 2026 at 9:26 AM GMT+2
The UK’s long-term borrowing costs hit 6% for the first time in almost three decades, making it the first Group of Seven economy to pay a rate that high since the euro crisis was raging in 2012.
The moves that took 30-year gilt yields to their highest since March 1998 coincided with a fresh slump in global bond markets, driven by concern spiking oil prices will reignite inflation. The rate on 30-year gilts rose as much as seven basis points to 6.02% on Thursday before paring the increase.
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10-01-26 panasonic
"the issue for us is what to hold in the meantime"
100%, my approach to that is "gradually" deploy cash, seems to be a good idea unless we expect rates to go higher for more than 2 years.
At current rates I'm well covered on my personal rate of "inflation". |
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10-01-26 carib
Savo: the short answer is.. TIME WILL TELL.
the issue for us is what to hold in the meantime.
The rule that unsustainable trend eventually do not continue still stands. |
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10-01-26 Merlino
I wonder if all this matter of US fiscal deficits, ballooning gov debt, etc. more than a sign of decadence and anarchy was/is something somehow deliberately done so to facilitate several objectives. One may be the future purchased at good prices of federal assets such as land, etc. by local large holders of the debt, wealthy private persons in the end, on the excuse of reducing the burden.
The stock mkt is not signaling any weakness or decadence of the country. Exuberance and (imho) irrationality, Yes it does, but not decadence
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10-01-26 savo
| 6)the US housing market ( ex-Wisconsin of course :-) ) is frozen with all the consequences is has for spending and jobs. |
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10-01-26 savo
carib..
1) who will contain the deficit?
2) Trump will be history in a few weeks time.
3) The budget is set by congress and the US congress is all pork, fraud, waste.
4) I see things the other way around... not what real rate the US can sustain but what inflation the US needs to keep debt stable in real terms as a % of GDP given the rate at which the debt grows.
5) 60% of the S&P is in bear market territory... the whole equity market is currently sustained by energy and AI spending.
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10-01-26 carib
Savo: IMHO the question is what REAL interest rate on UST can the USA sustain. And the issue to address is the fiscal deficit.
With REAL GDP growing 2%, a REAL rate up to 2% is sustainable, if the deficit is contained. Otherwise, the interest bill balloons the deficit and it grows exponentially.
If cutting the deficit brings about a recession, then rates will fall, helping to solve the problem.
All that said.. with Trump.. one never knows. |
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10-01-26 savo
merlino ... i imagine the situation in france and other EUs is as bad or worse.
But the repercussions are different because the US is the reserve currency.
The reserve currency has to be invested in something...can't be idle... that used to be USTs.
If people require higher and higher rates to buy and hold USTs... the US budget collapses.
At 5%, debt service consumes 35% of US tax collection... think 6%..7..8... not viable.
I wonder what are central banks buying with the USTs they are selling... more AI stocks?.. gold?... what?
Of course the FED can monetize all debt payments... but then inflation will explode in which case those that sold UST first were smart.
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10-01-26 Merlino
but then there is the debt problem... which the US budget can not service
................
I am not sure this is much of a problem for USA at least for the next decade or couple of decades....may be I am wrong
"Why is this (the debt) more of a problem for France and the UK? Beyond their deficits, they also shoulder much higher tax burdens than the US. Tax revenues are 25.2% of GDP in the US, the lowest of the major developed economies - but 35.3% in the UK and 43.9% in France."
Of course the situation looked much more stable a couple of decades ago, before bail outs and QEs |
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09-30-26 savo
pana... americans will consume less ... as they have too much debt...(credit car delinquency is at an ATH)... and that is deflationary as you say...
but then there is the debt problem... which the US budget can not service and the world wont want to refinance.... so they will have to print as carib and pills say....
but what about the other debtors?... will the fed also buy mortgages... and muni debt... and state debt...
how much will they print then?... trillions
Of course the dems can come and change direction... balance the budget and end the profligacy, the waste and the fraud.
I doubt that...
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09-30-26 panasonic
Savo, if credit becomes too expensive people will consume less, and we must take in consideration that many well paid jobs will disappear, plus housing market in the freezer.
That is my deflationary scenario (in max. 2 years).
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09-30-26 savo
pana... inflation is the expansion of money.. price increases are the consequence...
so yes... there is a lot of inflation in years to come... and prices will reflect that. |
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09-30-26 savo
carib.... The USA owes US$ it can print
that is precisely the problem... and is acting as a boomerang
what it was a reassurance in the past has turned now into a curse.
the world knows that the US can't service 40 trn of debt at 5%... hence they will print their way out... so they sell their US treasuries now to avoid future bigger loses.
But of course if people sell USTs... the 5% rate will become 6, 7, 8... etc... add the fiscal deficit and the 40 trn debt will become 43, 45.. 47... more debt, more interest on more debt, more deficit... more debt... more printing... more inflation .. less buyers of USTs... more seller... the definition of a debt trap.
And add the real economy..in particular housing...
I read mortgage rates peaked at 18% in the 80s... from there 30 continued year of falling rates... consequences... people refinanced at lower rates... more money in their pockets.. higher home values... more equity... hence equity to extract... more consumption... people selling house to buy new houses... a circle of happiness... it exploded in 2008.. but the federal go and the fed could come in the rescue...
and happiness was restored... for another 18 years...
now that is in reverse... rates go up... people are locked in their homes... nobody sells... no refi... not equity extraction... no extra cash in the pockets.. less consumption... and where are all those low rate mortgages... there must be somewhere... some entities are losing big even if they do not recongnise it in the balance sheets... the loses exist...
debt cost going up... economic activity going down... the crisis now is a government debt crisis nobody can bail out the US government.. the french government... the spanish government...
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09-30-26 panasonic
Carib, sustained inflation over 2 years from now unlikely imo.
Clips coming in help to reduce pain, locking high rates works for me in retirement, will deploy cash gradually. |
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09-30-26 carib
Panas: as M. de la Palisse would have said... one should buy long term fixed rate safe bonds.. when interest rates peak.
Hence the question: have US$ rates peaked?
The question about inflation is a separate one. But inflation remains the main tool to deal with very large public debts.. |
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09-30-26 panasonic
Carib, locking rates at current levels may not be the worst idea.
It is not abt. 1% more, it's the capital gain potential once deflation kicks in.
So debate should be, will inflation stay high for how long? one year, five, more?
Me say, max 2 years. |
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09-30-26 carib
Panas: question is.. is 1% more yield worth risking 30Y rather than 1, in the current uncertain situation?
Answer? no. |
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09-30-26 panasonic
| Carib, I deployed some cash and bought fixed, so far so bad...cash doing better. |
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09-30-26 carib
Bill Gross (ex pimco)
...my view is: don’t own bonds, with the exception of one-year Treasury bills, which are now at 4.55 per cent. Be cautious with stocks at record levels as higher yields over time will contract profit margins. Be prepared for the end of “what you are used to” stock markets and higher volatility in prices for the benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds
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09-30-26 spal
BHR-PD
Trading at ~$16.05, the Series D Preferreds (BHR-PD) yield ~12.8%. This provides a strong income buffer while the company navigates its corporate restructuring.
Because BHR operates exclusively in the ultra-luxury and resort sector (properties like Ritz-Carlton St. Thomas, Four Seasons, and Pier House Resort), it sits in a demographic tier that remains relatively price-inelastic. Strong Operating Metrics: Q2 2026 results demonstrated a 12.3% YoY increase in RevPAR to $396, driven by average daily rate (ADR) strength, pushing Comparable Hotel EBITDA up 14.2% to $48.4 million.
Luxury vs. Mid-Scale: While middle-tier leisure and urban business hotels struggle with interest rates and consumer spending fatigue, luxury resort RevPAR continues to hold steady, generating the operational cash flow required to service preferred obligations.
The largest structural drag on Braemar (BHR) has been its external advisory agreement with Ashford Inc., managed by Monty Bennett. Historically, Ashford’s fee arrangements and termination penalties heavily favored the advisor over common shareholders.
The Breakup Strategy: Braemar announced the termination of its advisory agreement to transition to internal self-management, aiming for over $25 million in annual G&A cost savings. Funding the Separation via Asset Sales: To satisfy termination obligations and reduce debt, BHR is liquidating select flagship assets. A prime example is the sale of the Four Seasons Resort Scottsdale at Troon North for $372 million (deposit went non-refundable on September 23, 2026).
Proxy & Governance Battle: Activist pressure (from firms like Al Shams Investments and Blackwells) has forced the appointment of independent board candidates and accelerated the exit from Ashford.
While this creates short-term headline noise, it fundamentally realigns corporate incentives toward asset coverage rather than management fee extraction. |
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09-30-26 spal
Today's burst was quite something ... 100% algo driven ... but they are up against cyber Schpal
;) |
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09-30-26 spal
Today's burst was quite something. I think that the disruptions can last say 12 months - this means that the tension is now between momentum and overshooting (which I encourage) and the inevitable sell off when the true horizon is seen.
Still we will have fun watching AI implode in the meantime. |
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09-30-26 panasonic
"the new dollar printers"
Congrats! should have gone all-in :-)))
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09-30-26 spal
| FECCF - FSRU Express ready soon to deploy to Puerto Bahia - Excelerate Energy is moving forward with a refit of a second ship Methane Patricia Camila for stage 2 build out. Gas shortage in Colombia is acute. |
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09-30-26 spal
| ALVOF ... stabalizing ex-div and should resume climb as the reserves in north Brazil are proved out ... drilling program well in process ... should this prove successful then the total gas field rerates. |
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09-30-26 hann
Govt financial assets mainly pension fund which generates 5x
---
5x of outflow. US/Eu govt's pension is pay as you go (meaning there's no funded pool to draw from). However Jp actually has a big pool. Even in worst case it's funded from pool for 100 years. If Jp grows a little and pool earns 5% rather than 3%, pension earnings will be 15-20x of outflow. |
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09-30-26 hann
09-30-26 savo
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryanlemand_japan-has-twice-the-debt-ratio-of-the-us-share-7509513679340720129-voZh
---
https://youtu.be/xO2aDuaabj8?si=Xm-NiBN_Z9iSlUwX
Takuji Aida advisor to PM Takaichi on Jp economic policy and stats.
Very surprising, not as bad as it looks. Govt net debt only 63% of GDP. Corporate sector net cash and GDP is growing. Govt financial assets mainly pension fund which generates 5x
Yen is weak but allows repatriation od income from offshore assets.
150ish is sweet spot. Jp can export. Focus on increased private/public investmetn - dual use defense, semiconductors, self sufficiency, physical AI, robotics, automation. I guess tightening foreign residency is a way to boost income (by reducing labor supply). Demographics an issue but automation allows labor to do/earn more.
Ai checked some of this. Seems correct. Surprising.
However, regularly spending time there seems Jp retains a lot dynamism. So much construction in Fukuoka/Kyushu. 2 TSMC plants, new museums, rebuilding downtown, improving main park, train system etc. |
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09-30-26 spal
| Tankers go BRRRRR .... the new dollar printers |
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09-30-26 spal
| Seems every fund in the world wants to close the month and quarter with strong gains on tanker schtocks |
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09-30-26 spal
HAFN
HAFNIA LTD
Also ... BTW they are the largest SH in TRMD. |
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09-30-26 spal
| TRMD ... very strong ... probably biggest gainer from the "disrupted" O&G supply lines |
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09-30-26 carib
Savo.
Japan owes ¥ to the Japanese. Japan can print ¥ or legislate about its own domestic debts. It is a Japanese issue.
The USA owes US$ it can print, but non residents are amongst the large creditors. the US$ in the main global reserve and trade currency. Hence it is an issue with global implications.
According to Martin Wolf, the global debt/GDP ratio actually improved since 2021, and the outlier is mostly the USA.
Let us review on Nov 3rd. |
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09-30-26 savo
| https://www.linkedin.com/posts/ryanlemand_japan-has-twice-the-debt-ratio-of-the-us-share-7509513679340720129-voZh |
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