09-26-26 savo
away from debt.
De-Treasurization |
|
09-26-26 spal
am building a big durian farm, combo agri + tourism... a little optimistic to do it at 62.
===
Hann - sounds very cool. |
|
09-26-26 carib
Foreign investors made a record $942bn in net purchases of US equities and investment fund shares in the 12 months to July, accelerating a shift in overseas investment towards American stocks and away from debt.
|
|
09-26-26 carib
|
09-26-26 carib
Savo: likewise.
Running an investment fund or owning a cash cow produces a similar outcome: every year you cash a fat dividend that exceeds your spending needs. |
|
09-26-26 savo
Bonds were clearly not the place to be after the 2008 crisis.
numerically speaking may be... but quality of life speaking i would not agree with that.
I love recurrent cash entering the account, paying bills and allowing some reinvestment.
|
|
09-26-26 carib
| Hann: I am not at all familiar with "vaults".. but I am not sure they cost that much. A normal safe deposit box in a bank vault costs at worse a couple of thousands, and 50 kg of gold fit in a small box.. but are worth over 60MM$.. |
|
09-26-26 carib
The past is not necessarily a guide for the future.. but it can provide clues. What made excellent returns in the last two decades, without doubt?
1) tech stocks
2) bitcoin
3) gold (if bought below 1000)
Bonds were clearly not the place to be after the 2008 crisis.
Now most Colores are old hacks with significant capital. Besides the intellectual and emotional rewards of booking profits, what we need is just to secure a stream of income that allows us to live well and sleep well at night.
Or am I mistaken? |
|
09-26-26 savo
hann..
while people look at hyperscalers...
look at the graph of the utilities Sector:
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.GSPU/
and regional banks...
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/KRE/
these two sectors are key to the underlying economy. |
|
09-26-26 savo
hann... and this time the crisis will be a sovereign debt crisis... not mortgages... or dotcomms.. or emerging markets..but developed market sovereigns.
who bails out the developed market sovereigns which are already taxing their citizens to death?
Central banks?
that would be the last nail in the coffin of fiat currencies. |
|
09-26-26 hann
09-26-26 savo
At some point... i do not know when... the stock market will break.
---
I think we'll have a multiyear crash, maybe US tech down 60-80%. Other markets not sure. Money will flow somewhere...
I have about 25% usd cash. Mostly in money market funds - i don't like this either as they also get into trouble in a big crash.
Have carpal tunnel in both hands screening actively w AI and bloomberg past 4 weeks w no new ideas.
Trump btw rejected Iran proposal. So 30 Sept back to war...
|
|
09-26-26 savo
hann
stock markets are behaving as if interest rates are not going up.
I think interest rates are going much higher for the simple reason that they remain real negative.
With negative real rates people borrow and spend, do not save.
Hence there is not enough capital around to finance the roll over of so much government debt word wide plus the growing fiscal deficits.
At some point... i do not know when... the stock market will break.
|
|
09-26-26 hann
More on gold -
09-25-26 savo
that means 2 trn dollars per annum on interest as the 40 trn rolls over...
the only solution is very high inflation.
---
Hann... FWIW i believe that is a narrative fabricated by the government terminals which repeated ad nauseam has become official wisdom.
My view is that gold (by that I mean the precious metals complex including miners) is the opposite... is a protection against the incapacity of Fed officials to act independently from politics and provide stable currency no matter what.
---
Ok - put this way I agree. Big trend is USD debasement vs real assets, high interest rates but much lower than inflation. Gold is a good way to preserve purchasing power.
Owning physical in size - SG vaults charge 1-2%/year. If i keep it, high chance of eventual theft. If SHTF, not sure what price u will get if you need sack of potatoes. Silver coins are more practical.
Gold miners - div yields are low, have to deal w overhead, resource nationalism, declining grades etc. Like owning a real estate developer vs owning the real estate. Most of the time better to own real estate. But gold there's no yield and no daily utility.
In lieu of gold, I'm trying this:
own real productive assets - biz, farm(s). rice fields, mixed food farm u really don't make any money but there's always food. excess we actually just give away. am building a big durian farm, combo agri + tourism... a little optimistic to do it at 62.
portfolio wise - in this flavor
undervalued commodity producers at low end of cost curve, pays div and appreciates, can be semi-no brainer sometimes.
biz that benefits from some inflation - financials not too exposed to asset blow up, cheap, market leader, div. generally where interest rates are already high.
resi/commercial/office real estate - never really got into this for yield. we just buy what we use. i feel i can get better returns/yield from port investments
|
|
Board
