11-13-26 spal
"I’d say you were a carnival barker, except that wouldn’t be fair to carnival barkers. A carnie will at least tell you up front that he’s running a shell game."
— Adapted from Loren Fox, Enron: The Rise and Fall |
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11-13-26 spal
471TO
@TOzgokmen
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34m
SLOW-BOILING FROGS:
What is happening in the markets is slow boiling of the frog:
Everybody is hoping nothing ever happens, everything is magically fixed somehow, with fugazi money, and new NVDA CEO + board, probably absolute dorkons, will fix things now that the Casanova is out.
No... NIFTY FIFTY style -90% collapse of the AI bubble by 2030 is in progress
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"The ringmaster has altered, but the circus remains the same."
— Paddy Ashdown |
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11-13-26 panasonic
| Rene Haas been approached by Nvda's board. |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, understood ... I would focus on how widely AI will used by future generations, as we did with all new tech developments...forget profit margins, that is a wildcard.
If yes, which agents will become more popular among the next generations? (forget us, I still can do daily math w/o calculator).
Right now, worldwide, Chinese have a strong presence in tech, and getting stronger. |
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11-13-26 spal
| Hyperscalers are now in trouble --- this spreads to the private credit funds. |
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11-13-26 spal
Panas - it is always the arrogance of the expert that leads to hyperbolic vanity. Today the magicians are the computer scientists.
It is as if the endless probing of mountains of data will somehow solve all of our problems and that more and more data is the solution.
When in reality the essence is found by ignoring most of the noise.
AI cannot induce. This is a critical distinction. Also there is the very real issue of false negatives in its deductive process. Which although quicker is not the same quality in extremis as a human can turn out.
A few examples:
1. Do you have cancer? The machine saids no. Turns out you do.
2. Is that a brick wall? The Tesla saids no. Turns out it is.
3. Is that target a school? The Palantir machine saids no. Turns out it was.
My view is that in the end it will be realized that AI is useful to speed up low risk routines. But the class action liability around its failures around false negatives and the ultimate liability will break it maximalist claims.
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, my case on US, what happens in next two years has more to do political decisions than tech related.
Your view is that AI demand will fade out bcz tech part is over-hyped, if I read you correctly. |
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11-13-26 spal
| US will not stop, China will not stop, people will use AI ... and they will realize its limitations and most of the wankery will fade away ... as much as we can allow it to which if obviously difficult given the current minset., |
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11-13-26 spal
| Meanwhile in Bitcoin land ... |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, when CSCO collapsed it had 220 P/E and no scandal.
So back to AI, will kids use it in future, like we did calculators and internet and smartphones? my answer is yes.
For the first time USA has real competition from another country, will China stop bcz USA stops? my answer is no. |
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11-13-26 carib
| Mossad Director Gofman visits Washington, meets CIA director, pushes to resume war with Iran |
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11-13-26 panasonic
| Spal, I suppose there is a fine team of engineers inside NVDA, Jensen had little time to be in details, he was all about commercial part and chicks. |
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11-13-26 spal
| Nvidia eventually goes the way of Cisco. |
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11-13-26 panasonic
"Burry doubles down on Nasdaq 100 puts, increases bearish SMH position amid Nvidia leadership turmoil"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4672035-burry-doubles-down-on-nasdaq-100-puts-increases-bearish-smh-position-amid-nvidia-leadership-turmoil |
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11-13-26 spal
Every time Nvidia accelerates its release cadence (from Hopper to Blackwell to Vera Rubin), the rental rates and collateral value of the previous generation compress faster than the debt amortizes.
LOL |
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11-13-26 spal
Key Details from the WSJ Report
The August Confrontation ("A Deer in the Headlights"): In August 2026, Huang summoned Kress and his senior finance team to his office to address a ballooning problem: Nvidia was in talks to extend billions of dollars in financial guarantees to AI cloud providers and data-center developers that couldn't afford its chips outright. During the meeting, Huang interrupted Kress’s presentation, calling her "a deer in the headlights" and dismissing her as a "reporting CFO"—meaning someone who tracks numbers rather than helping him define strategy or make bold decisions.
The $250 Billion OpenAI Backstop: Kress had been pushing back internally against Huang's aggressive dealmaking, warning about concentration risk across a handful of capital-constrained buyers. Specifically, Huang had championed a massive $250 billion financial backstop to guarantee debt for OpenAI’s Ohio data center buildout. After the proposal rattled investors, Kress stepped in and reworked the arrangement, cutting Nvidia's initial financial commitment in half.
The Wafer & Memory "Avalanche" and Customer Pushback: Beneath the surface of Nvidia's blowout revenue numbers, Huang warned executives during that same summer meeting that major cloud hyperscalers were actively exploring custom alternative chips, while Nvidia was staring down an "avalanche" of chip wafers and memory it had already locked in via supply commitments. By October, Huang was privately pressuring cloud computing CEOs to recognize the value of Nvidia's hardware, telling them: "You are not establishing the value of my products."
Looks like the AI Hard on is over ...
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11-13-26 spal
| Jensen Huang is on pace to have more than 500 mistresses by this time next year. The growth is insane. AI really creating abundance. I am now sold on this. |
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11-13-26 spal
I mean who needs a middle class anyway? LatAm has done without them for a couple of centuries. Let China try - in this day and age they are just trouble any way ... wanting more and more stuff ... more and more rights ...
;)) |
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11-13-26 spal
Sales sank 8.8% compared with October last year. The latest sales tally fell short of the 3.8 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
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But at least there is avocado toast and cat tiktoks. |
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11-13-26 spal
Bill Bishop
@niubi
“The tighter ties between Nvidia and the Commerce Department also gave Tim Teter, Nvidia’s general counsel, unique influence over the department and its rule-making process. When department staff reviewed drafts of policies under consideration, they sometimes found themselves looking at comments and critiques in the document that had been inserted by Mr. Teter.”
Whoops ... this is getting very slimy. |
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11-13-26 savo
spal... does not look good...
Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes slumped in October to their slowest pace in more than 16 years as mortgage rates climbed sharply, ratcheting up borrowing costs for aspiring homebuyers.
Existing home sales fell 5.5% last month from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million units, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. That’s the slowest annual sales pace since August 2010, when the market was still reeling from the late-2000s U.S. housing crash.
Sales sank 8.8% compared with October last year. The latest sales tally fell short of the 3.8 million pace economists were expecting, according to FactSet. |
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11-13-26 spal
| We have been in the pump phase ... we are entering the dump phase. |
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11-13-26 spal
| It is actually a race to the bottom. |
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11-13-26 spal
If compute is abundant and its marginal cost is zero - then you are playing the wrong game.
Commoditizing the base layer destroys the return on the capital required to build it.
When basic intelligence becomes as cheap as tap water, advantage accrues to whoever controls what cannot be replicated by throwing cheap FLOPs at public internet data ...
As Rafiki said to Simba.
"Look harder." |
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11-13-26 panasonic
Spal, indeed.
Chinese supremacy in AI now seems hard to stop. |
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11-13-26 spal
Last few days Trump has a 60 minutes interview - here is the clip when Trump said a leading AI CEO was on the edge of federal charges.
https://x.com/compound248/status/2120873801843953819?a=zQMDdLGyw76RfuaY-G0&s=20
Jensen is deep trouble. |
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11-13-26 victor
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11-12-26 panasonic
Vic, not at all...if you follow my posts, China is playing an impeccable game, same as you, I believe the timing of the scandal is odd.
Jewel of the crown in USA tech in deep troubles.
Besides, Dems are staging a moratorium in data centers, with the excuse of defending jobs.
Also Dems are responsible that power has generation stalled for years.
But you already know how pessimistic my view has been :-( |
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11-12-26 savo
I read NVIDIA bought $ 42.4 billion of equity securities in the first half of 2026 alone. Meaning 30 cents of every NVIDIA revenue dollar.
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11-12-26 victor
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11-12-26 victor
pana, i know :-)
isn't it odd that all these affairs come to light after the election? |
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11-12-26 panasonic
Vic, seems that it was more like of a Cult setup...
He got all the fun, I get a beat in my portfolio, zero fun. |
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11-12-26 victor
| On Thursday, Reuters reported that Huang had a third affair with a second Nvidia employee, who remained unnamed, as the fallout from the scandal spread. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
| Products pipeline should be robust enough for 1~2 years, after that unchartered territory. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
SOURCES CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR including
:-)) |
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11-12-26 spal
Alexander Stahel 🌻
@BurggrabenH
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33m
Nobody can value Nvidia without Jensen. A known unknown.
What is absolutely knowable is that the company is now literally in survival mode and that nobody at the board can or will approve any form of 3rd party financing.
What is also clear is that it’s innovation cycle will collapse.
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11-12-26 spal
| Vance removed from foreign policy. |
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11-12-26 spal
| JENSEN HUANG HAS HIRED THE LAW FIRM PAUL WEISS AND ITS LITIGATORS MELINDA HAAG AND WALTER BROWN - NYT |
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11-12-26 spal
WHITE HOUSE IS DISCUSSING HOWARD LUTNICK’S FUTURE AS COMMERCE SECRETARY - SOURCES CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR including:
Sum Ting Wong
Ho Lee Fuk
Bang Ding Ow |
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11-12-26 spal
| Sorry for the double post ... browser is too eager today. |
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11-12-26 spal
FECCF
FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
5.34 (+8.32%)
This goes 3X in 18 months. It will dance the fuck around, but this is what I do ...
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11-12-26 spal
FECCF
FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
5.34 (+8.32%)
This goes 3X in 18 months. It will dance the fuck around, but this is what I do ...
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11-12-26 spal
Panas - Bison Interests were on the call ...
https://bisoninterests.com/
Funds like Bison do not dial into a 11:00 a.m. ET micro-cap earnings call and queue up for live Q&A just for fun.
Especially on a post-spin stub that currently pays no dividend and has minimal Bay Street analyst coverage. Their presence indicates they are either already accumulating shares or completing final diligence before sizing a position.
Josh Young is highly followed in O&G |
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11-12-26 panasonic
Thanks Spal, I'll catch up during the weekend.
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11-12-26 panasonic
Tim Cook really fits the job; he is great at managing product pipelines and int'l commercial part.
Not sure Ternus is ready to fly solo, probably Cook has contract ties with apple for some time that can't be breached.
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11-12-26 spal
| Panas - hope you had a chance to listen to De Alba (Chairman of Frontera via Catalyst). Decent call - the plans are very interesting. If not you should go to the recording. |
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11-12-26 spal
| Looks like Trump reads Colores. |
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11-12-26 victor
| NOW THAT Nvidia CEO JENSEN HUANG, who has done a fantastic job, has resigned, there is only one man to take his place - TIM COOK of Apple. A Legend replaces a Legend! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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11-12-26 spal
| Yes Panas there is an un exploded bomb in there. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
| "Watch this space", thanks didn't know and certainly ground for something really ugly. |
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11-12-26 savo
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11-12-26 spal
The next fiscal quarter, which ended in October 2025, Nvidia switched reporting methods. It began reporting geographic revenue “based upon the location of the customers’ headquarters,” rather than “customer billing location” as it previously had done.“
This sounds like securities fraud. Watch this space. |
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11-12-26 spal
| Jensen in trouble with his Huang. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
| Jensen resigned, Collete assumes ... |
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11-12-26 victor
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11-12-26 panasonic
| Carib LOL...board should consider a lawsuit against Pfizer :-)) |
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11-12-26 carib
| NVDA lost 10% after elections, and 15% after erections. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
| Adding more SPCX this morning, planet had two geniuses, now only one left. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
| Spal, will add more Frontera as well, tks. |
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11-12-26 panasonic
"then there's your evidence that AI related job losses"
jajaja, Jensen and Kimberly, two jobs!!! |
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11-12-26 spal
Frontera (my Colombian infrastructure play just published it Q3 report). I will continue to add shares here.
Three concrete numbers in the release force an upward revision to the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) and multi-stage re-rating model:
Base Run-Rate EBITDA Beat: Annualized Q3 Adjusted EBITDA hit ~$139.4M ($34.85M × 4), outpacing the prior ~$120M–$125M baseline before a single dollar of LNG regasification revenue begins.
Net Debt Compression: Cash on hand stood at $83.9M against $191.1M in debt/leases, dropping Net Debt to $107.2M (0.88x LTM Adjusted EBITDA)—even after spending $19.5M in Q3 CapEx ($17.7M on LNG).
Quantified Medium-Term Growth Scope: Management put concrete operational parameters around two previously unquantified growth pillars: LPG Phase II (officially sanctioned for 2028 after LPG volumes more than tripled QoQ to 13,792 tons) and a 150–300 MW LNG-anchored gas-fired thermal power plant, alongside an upcoming open process for incremental third-party LNG volumes. |
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11-12-26 spal
If Jensen loses his job Panas then there's your evidence that AI related job losses ...
LOL |
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11-12-26 spal
Former Apple CEO Tim Cook is reportedly being floated as a potential replacement for Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
TimVidia |
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11-12-26 spal
Zach Warmbrodt
@Zachary
·
1h
NEW Nvidia fallout: Republicans are targeting Lutnick and top deputies over their chips policy and whether they put private tech interests above national security.
“Secretary Lutnick needs to answer that in front of God and country,” Sen. Kennedy says. |
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11-12-26 spal
This is circle jerk BS^2.
There has been vast amounts of insider selling in Nvidia lately. |
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11-12-26 spal
| AI trade will unwind now in a big way. |
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11-12-26 spal
| Lutnick gets axed soon ... Schpal-trodamus. |
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11-12-26 spal
Looks to me that Cantor Fitzgerald will also get dragged into this. I believe that the FBI are on it.
The Cantor Fitzgerald & Tether Shadow-Banking Trail
The financial channel connecting Cantor Fitzgerald and the Lutnick family to the offshore financing of Nvidia chip smuggling rests on concrete audit demands led by Senator Richard Blumenthal and the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI):
The $10 Billion Tether Equity & Reserve Custody: Cantor Fitzgerald custodies over $130 billion in U.S. Treasury bills backing Tether (USDT) and held a 5% equity stake in Tether (valued at up to $10 billion). Cantor earns tens of millions of dollars in annual custodial management fees.
The Family Buyout Loan: Senate audit letters highlighted that when Howard Lutnick prepared to step down as Cantor Chairman to join the Cabinet, Tether issued a private loan to a trust established for Lutnick’s sons (Brandon and Kyle Lutnick). This loan directly financed their buyout of Howard Lutnick’s equity stake in Cantor Fitzgerald, transferring control of the firm to his children.
Illicit OTC Settlement Rails: Senate investigators uncovered that Asian GPU aggregators and Megaspeed subsidiaries utilized Tether (USDT) over-the-counter (OTC) settlement channels to bypass SWIFT banking protocols, enabling multi-hundred-million-dollar chip purchases without triggering traditional Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) or Anti-Money Laundering (AML) flags. |
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11-12-26 spal
| Panas - yes - we need to focus on changing that! |
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Board
