10-21-26 carib
| SPAL: it just means RE values in your place remain very low, IMHO. |
|
10-21-26 victor
La diputada australiana Helen Haines ha sufrido la amputación de ambas piernas tras ser embestida por un automóvil frente a su oficina electoral, según informó su esposo este miércoles, mientras el hombre acusado del ataque comparecía ante el tribunal.
Los médicos amputaron la pierna izquierda de Haines después de que el presunto agresor la atropellara dos veces con su vehículo en Wangaratta, al noreste de Melbourne, el lunes, explicó Phil Haines. Los facultativos intentaron durante días salvar su pierna derecha, pero finalmente no fue posible, señaló durante una conferencia de prensa en Melbourne. ”La buena noticia dentro de todo esto es que Helen está viva y se encuentra estable. Eso es lo más importante para nuestra familia”, afirmó.
Haines, una política independiente que ha impulsado causas como la lucha contra el cambio climático y la vivienda en zonas regionales, permanece en estado crítico. La policía continúa investigando el motivo de este inusual ataque contra una representante electa. |
|
10-21-26 spal
The vast majority of homeowners in Appleton and Kaukauna hold >40% equity in their homes or own them outright. An owner facing divorce or an heir handling an estate does not need to panic-sell at a 30% discount; they list at a 3–5% discount below market for a rapid 14-day cash closing.
===
I live (for most of the year) in one of the most unglamorous parts of the US ... there is no fluff or excess here. Just steady industrial, manufacturing and service grind done the midwestern way. |
|
10-21-26 spal
BTW nothing I do can be generalized - first rule of RE is that it is always local.
I would not want to have any exposure at all in say Florida (and I have lived there of and on for about 7 years and have own residences and rentals there). |
|
10-21-26 spal
In the US, as SPAL can confirm, rents are still very expensive in terms of current values.
===
See my comments below ... my rents are not expensive and will rise about 5% p.a. |
|
10-21-26 spal
A buyer's market capable of driving down prices requires more than 6.0 months of available housing supply. Outagamie County inventory consistently hovers between 1.5 and 2.2 months of supply. To trigger a price crash, inventory would need to triple overnight without any corresponding increase in buyer demand.
Schpal will buy dips. |
|
10-21-26 spal
| The chances of a major downward correction in RE prices in my markets is virtually zero. No fucks given about over priced bicoastal markets ... they will regret "flying over" Schpalandia. |
|
10-21-26 spal
| My other market (my main market) is Appleton - same dynamic more-or-less. |
|
10-21-26 spal
Private multi-family development in Kaukauna is virtually non-existent compared to suburban Grand Chute or Neenah. Zero risk of local multi-family oversupply guarantees high pricing power for existing well-maintained duplex and multi-family inventory.
|
|
10-21-26 spal
Here are my rental markets - based on Goldy's view on rates and mortgage lock in.
Demand Drivers: The monthly cost of buying a median Appleton home ($315,000–$325,000 at 6.5%+ mortgage rates plus taxes and insurance) sits at roughly $2,100–$2,300/month, compared to average 2-bedroom market rents of $1,250–$1,450/month. This $800+/month buy-versus-rent gap keeps young professionals and young families in rental units significantly longer.
Supply Constraints: Multi-family construction in Outagamie County remains constrained by high commercial borrowing costs and site availability, keeping net new unit completions below annual household formation rates.
Outlook: 4.5% to 6.0% annualized rent growth with structural vacancy hovering between 2.0% and 3.0%.
Economy moving into Schpal mode. |
|
10-20-26 Merlino
On Veny.. prices are flat.. because there is still 0 visibility on timing and shape of supposed restructuring.
...............................
Besides oil production essentially flat @ 1.2 mmbd, regretably |
|
10-20-26 panasonic
Vic, great news!
Plaza de la Constitucion full of tents, una verguenza! |
|
10-20-26 victor
:-))
20/10/2026
Katrin Ortega, la candidata del PSOE más votada en porcentaje en Málaga en 2023, abandona el partido: "No me representa este PSOE"
Katrin Ortega obtuvo el 88% de los votos en las elecciones municipales de 2023, el mayor porcentaje de apoyo al PSOE en la provincia
|
|
10-20-26 carib
| On Veny.. prices are flat.. because there is still 0 visibility on timing and shape of supposed restructuring. |
|
10-20-26 carib
| As far as I see, the first consequence of a significant contraction in RE transaction is that new construction contracts even more. If total supply falls, prices hold up better... |
|
10-20-26 carib
Savo: that very much depends, in my experience.
I remember Portugal 2011, when the Troika had to show up.
Real estate prices were too high, in particular given the crisis, but most owners just stopped selling.But, as you wrote, not those who really had to sell. So transaction prices went down significantly, on a much smaller volume. Yet very fem mortgages defaulted, and when they did banks mostly sat on the asset. There was no mortgage bank crisi, But Banco Espirito Santo blew up because it was built on a castle of fraud, unrelated to real estate. Now real estate prices are up 200% from 2011.
In Italy RE prices are languishing since the end of the century, decreasing strongly in real terms (Milan excluded). Yet, there have been no significant mortgage defaults.
If RE lending is done prudently, price falls can be absorbed without much fuss, IMHO.
In the US, as SPAL can confirm, rents are still very expensive in terms of current values. If values were to fall significantly, rent would be even more absurd. IMHO, of course. |
|
10-20-26 savo
| despite Citgo... veni bonds comatose ...unresponsive to any positive news.... |
|
10-20-26 savo
carib... the first reaction is for owners to refrain from selling
some of them.. but not all.... things happen... people die... heirs sell irrespective of the value of the mortgage... people get divorced... assets have to be split... maintenance costs keep raising as a consequence of inflation... people choose to downsize...
and once one sells 30% lower... the whole neighborhood gets repriced... and no bank will lend money based on the old prices... and will value houses at the new print...
Once that new price news spreads people start wondering why am paying this mortgage on a house that is worth less than my mortgage... so keys are mailed back to the bank... now the bank owns a house that does not want to own... so they sell it... and may take a loss... now the HTM unrealized loss becomes a real loss...banks solvency becomes shaky...wall street notices it and bank stocks enter a downward spiral... as they do prefs and loss absortion securities fall... panic ensues ... the Fed has to come in... remember Signature bank... investors run for the exits... QE... inflation that was running at 17% annual becomes 25... USTs find no buyers.... more QE... more inflation... lower treasury prices... more deficit...etc...
things are trickier that people just do not sell because they got a low mortgage. |
|
10-20-26 carib
Caracas-. De acuerdo con un informe al que tuvo acceso Bloomberg, las ganancias de Citgo Petroleum Copr. para el cierre de este año 2026 se ubicarán entre 7 mil y 8 mil millones de dólares, una cifra que equivale a 2 mil millones más respecto a lo previsto en el segundo trimestre del año.
La información publicada por Bloomberg News sugiere que el alza en las cifras se debe al aumento de "los márgenes de refinación de combustibles, cuyos precios han registrado incrementos superiores a los del petróleo crudo".
|
|
10-20-26 carib
| Hence my suggested remedy of portable mortgages.. |
|
10-20-26 carib
Goldman Sachs US economics team estimates that more than 95 per cent of mortgage borrowers have interest rates below current market rates, while 65 per cent have rates 2 percentage points below market rates. This acted as a strong disincentive for homeowners moving, they said in a note on Tuesday.
FT
|
|
10-20-26 carib
as I was writing..
A leading indicator of US housing activity fell to its lowest level on record in September, underscoring the adverse impact of high mortgage rates on the real estate sector. |
|
10-20-26 carib
|
10-20-26 carib
Savo: to my uneducated eye.. it looks like there is going to be a correction of US lower tier real estate prices, as you say, but the first reaction is for owners to refrain from selling, and perspective buyers resorting to .. renting.
I suppose some owners bought with very low rates mortgages, and many more re-financed at such low levels. 4% average rate looks very sustainable to me.
Question is: newly build houses are not cheap, because lavor and material costs are high. If there are few buyers, construction will slow down fast.
Correct? |
|
10-20-26 savo
carib.. on the wsj .... The top third of the market is still buying
i doubt this is true... may be the top 5% of the market is mortgage rate insensitive... as they pay cash...
but from there downwards people buy with mortgages... and a 7.5% mortgage requires substantial falls.
Using a mortgage calculator...on a 1MM mortgage...a rate of 4% pa produces a monthly payment of 4,775. If the rate goes up to 7.5% the mortgage has to fall to 700k to maintain the same monthly payment.
Imagine a 30% fall across all real estate in the US excluding those of the top 5%.
people will start mailing the keys to the banks. The banks will have to sell and then unrealized HTM loses will become real loses.
The entire banking sector will require a bail out... but by whom? the federal government is already bankrupt... and the FED already owns 7 trn under water USTs with PPI running at 17% pa. |
|
10-20-26 carib
Yttrium oxide prices outside China have skyrocketed to $1,150 per kilogramme, a 179-fold increase versus two years ago, compared with $9 per kilogramme in China, according to price assessments by Argus.
|
|
10-20-26 carib
Savo: everybody can look at the graph and draw conclusions.
My point is that the extra-low rates of the last decade were the anomaly, rather than the norm.
As I wrote, the central issue is the real rate, rather than the nominal one. High real rates are not sustainable on a very large debt. I do not think the real rate is high, at the moment, considering all the uncertainties. |
|
10-20-26 savo
carib.. how you equate average rate with normal rate?
my understanding when you said normal was that you meant the most frequent rate during those 40 years...
5% was the "normal rate" between 2001 and 2004... before it was higher ... and after it was lower. |
|
10-20-26 carib
Savo: if you take the average yield of UST30Y during the last 40 years, I guess not far from 5%.
2% was an anomaly.
All that said, one should look at real rates, IMHO. |
|
10-20-26 carib
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in Israel on Monday, two sources confirmed to Walla on Tuesday.
US sources confirmed to The Jerusalem Post that representatives of the United Arab Emirates were not present at the meeting, following reports indicating otherwise.
The unannounced meeting comes eight days before Israeli elections and amid US-Israel discussions to resume combat operations against Iran, according to the report. |
|
10-20-26 savo
here is the chart of 30 year UST yields
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30 |
|
10-20-26 savo
carib... look at the following 40 years chart...
30 year yields peaked in 1981 at 15%.... since then all the way down to 1.49% in 2021. Since then up...
so there hasn't been a normal 5% rate..
1981 2021 are the 40 years of housing tailwind.. refi... equity withdrawal... lower payments.. higher consumption...houses turned into ATMs.
Now the process has reversed... and housing has become a drag on the economy...
not surprisingly consumer confidence hit an all time low in september 2026.. and "by all time" meaning since inception in 1960
look at the following graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USACSCICP02STSAM
|
|
10-20-26 carib
5% on long UST used to be the normal rate, not odd.
The difference is now federal debt is over 100% of GDP.
The real question is.. are REAL rates high?
inflation always solves a big chunk (or all) of the problem.. |
|
10-20-26 savo
victor.. the capacity of the fed for financial repression is unlimited... hence i do not know is the answer to your question.
All i do is comment on what I see.
1) debt and deficit growing exponentially
2) buyers of USTs turning into sellers
3) 8 trn of 20 year mortgages at an average rate of 4%, according to the numbers that circulate, significantly under water siting at face value somewhere in the US banking sector, fannie and freddie
4) 7 trn of USTs sitting in the fed's balance sheet underwater
5) trillions of USTs underwater also in the financial sector
6) no political will to bear the cost of solving the above
7) the housing weatlh effect by which people would refi, get lower monthly payments and extract equity and use that to feed consumption and gdp turned into reverse.
8) too big to fail banks becoming too bigger to fail banks
the list can go on. |
|
10-20-26 victor
savo, say there is a recession, and the fed aggressively lowers rates.
do you expect the 30 year bond to remain at 5% or more?
|
|
10-20-26 victor
savo, do you think 30-year bond yields in the usa will remain high, in the future?
more than 5%, as now, for the next 2-3 years (till trump leaves office) ?
even if the fed lowers the federal funds rate?
|
|
10-20-26 victor
Jueza de Florida emite orden de arresto contra Raúl Castro por el derribo de dos avionetas de Hermanos al Rescate en 1996
|
|
10-20-26 spal
Yes Carib Brazil's system is chronic - unless you are a rentier of which there are many - normally ex-public servants.
|
|
Board
