12-27-25 carib
| Savo: I am no expert, but given bullion price, is it not simpler to keep bars in a bank safe, if you want security? |
|
12-27-25 spal
Analysts broadly anticipate prices remaining elevated above current levels (around $75–$80 per ounce as of late December 2025), potentially testing $85–$100 in Q1 2026, driven by acute physical shortages from reduced Chinese outflows (estimated to cut 60–70% of typical exports to Western markets).
|
|
12-27-25 spal
Silver
Regarding whether this creates an artificial or controlled shortage: Yes, the restrictions are expected to tighten global supply significantly, as China controls 60–70% of worldwide silver refining and has historically been a key exporter.
By limiting outflows, Beijing is engineering a controlled global squeeze—potentially removing 25% of available supply to Western markets and creating a projected 5,000-tonne deficit in 2026—while maintaining ample domestic availability at potentially lower effective costs through state-backed procurement.
This has already driven volatility, with silver prices surging 150–175% year-to-date to around $75–80 per ounce globally and even higher premiums ($5–8/oz) in Shanghai, reflecting acute tightness.
The policy exacerbates existing multi-year supply-demand imbalances, where industrial use accounts for about 50% of demand, and could fragment global trade further.
|
|
12-27-25 savo
pana.. to summarize.. there are various variables that determine the risk.
1) Domicile. you know that according to the first two letters of the ISIN number: US, IE, GB, JE, CH ..etc.. for the US, ireland, UK, Switzerland.
2) The exchange in which it trades. As usual could be US, London, various europeans, CH, HK, etc...
3) The currency...when it is offered in a currency other than dollars there is a cost for the hedge... I prefer to do my own hedges hence look for ETFs that trade in dollars.
4) Expense ratio...could go from 0.09% to 0.4%
There are ETFs that trade in London or the US with US or UK or Ireland ISINs but the gold is stored in Switzerland. When the gold is stored in CH the name of the ETF usually includes SWISS GOLD.
So it can be confusing. If I do not want US or UK law... want the gold to be stored in CH but trade in USD the only ones I could find are:
AUUSI --> 0.23%
CSGOLD --> 0.19%
ZGLDUS --> 0.40% |
|
12-27-25 savo
pana.. i would say nothing beats gold bars stored in some vault in the alps or singapore. With Silver it becomes more complicated the storage...because of size...
But short of that there are levels of risk...
a US etf with a US isin (US situs) and gold stored in some US vault... I would say represents the maximum level of risk giving the track record of the american government.
a UK or Irleand etf with gold stored in London I would still consider it risky. They have not forced people to sell their gold for fiat but removed the standard several times... are the epitomy of the lapdog and have recently stolen veni's gold at the request of the US. So anything can happen with those bootlickers.
A swiss domiciled ETF that trades in dollars in the swiss stock exchange with gold bars stored in CH and a low expense ratio could be a good approximation to holding physical.
There is such ETF...ticker... CSGOLD.. expense ratio 0.19%... more expensive than IAUM which costs 0.09% per annum... but not that bad compared to others. |
|
12-27-25 panasonic
| Savo, good point but still doesn't solve the problem, if we are in a crash of that magnitude I would be far from relaxed with papelitos of any kind. |
|
12-27-25 savo
pana.. i did not explain myself well.. I am referring to the location of the assets not to our physical location.
There are gold and silver ETFs in other jurisdictions under other laws of countries that do not have the habit of stealing other people's gold.
US ETFs apart from the US situs element that Pillz was mentioning some months ago.. have a confiscation risk (infamous Nixon) or a forced sale risk (infamous Roosevelt).
The odd think about Roosevelt is that the objective to force sale gold to the FED for dollars was to expand the money circulating.
Crude inflation.
|
|
12-27-25 carib
| Panas: thanks. I had misunderstood. |
|
12-27-25 panasonic
Quote of the day by Epictetus:
‘There is only one way to happiness and that is to stop worrying about things which are beyond the power or our will’ |
|
12-27-25 panasonic
I do, but comes a day that lifestyle jumps to the front of everythinge else.
Proximity to family, friends, great doctors that are also very close friends, etc.
We are not getting younger Savo, if not now, when? |
|
12-27-25 savo
aren't you worried that the US may confiscate or force people to sell their gold and silver...
They did it twice already... Roosevelt in 1933 issued executive order 6102 by which all americans had to sell their gold to the Fed.
Then, the infamous Nixon stole the gold from all dollar holders at home and abroad.
With the US now stealing veni's oil in plain daylight and nobody saying anything other than Russia and China... what precludes them from taking all the gold and silver from US registered ETFs?
Silver is used in the defense industry... there is there an easy national security argument. |
|
12-27-25 panasonic
| Savo, or buy/sell without money involved. |
|
12-27-25 panasonic
| Savo, you can cross borders with Gold, equivalent en silver not viable. |
|
12-27-25 savo
pana.. what do you mean by this?
Only downside of SLV vs GLD it has to be in paper, physical is not viable.
|
|
12-26-25 panasonic
| Spal, we are in lala land :-) |
|
12-26-25 panasonic
Carib, for transactions outside de grid I mean.
|
|
12-26-25 spal
Old Prius catalytic converter now worth more than entire Prius ...
Larceny connected with stealing valuable metal from cars set to skyrocket. |
|
12-26-25 spal
Platinum
2,468.65
+220.85
(+9.83%)
Hide your catalytic converter |
|
12-26-25 carib
| Panas: as long a paper and physical are same value.. |
|
12-26-25 panasonic
:-))
Only downside of SLV vs GLD it has to be in paper, physical is not viable. |
|
12-26-25 spal
| Silver and Copper ... two horses of the apocalypse |
|
12-26-25 savo
|
12-26-25 panasonic
| Bull attack on silver! 100$ pana's target |
|
12-26-25 spal
Copper (HGH6)
Real-time
USD
5.7430
+0.1700
(+3.05%)
Real-time Data |
|
12-26-25 savo
silver up 4% in Asia
interesting article
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intensifying-shortage-what-run-london-silver-market-looks |
|
Board
