03-03-26 spal
03-03-26 carib
QED
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So the old back channels still work ...
;) |
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03-03-26 spal
| Prime Credit ... get ready for bumps. |
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03-03-26 carib
QED:
The IDF targeted a building in which Tehran's 88-member Assembly of Experts was meeting to choose Iran's next supreme leader, Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday. |
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03-03-26 spal
Iraq has started cutting output as storage fills up. Oil +9% today
*IRAQ STARTS SHUTTING OIL OUTPUT AT RUMAILA AS STORAGE FILLS
*IRAQ CUTS WEST QURNA 2 OIL PRODUCTION BY 450,000 B/D |
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03-03-26 spal
It makes no difference what men think of war, said the judge. War endures. As well ask men what they think of stone. War was always here. Before man was, war waited for him. The ultimate trade awaiting its ultimate practitioner. That is the way it was and will be. That way and not some other way.
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03-03-26 spal
Circuit breaker triggered at Korea.
Tomorrow does not look pretty for the market. |
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03-03-26 spal
| IRAQ WILL BE FORCED TO CUT ITS PRODUCTION BY MORE THAN 3 MLN BPD IN A FEW DAYS IF OIL TANKERS CANNOT MOVE FREELY AND REACH LOADING PORTS - RTRS |
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03-03-26 carib
Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom has halted operations at the nuclear power plant in the Iranian city of Bushehr, its head said on Tuesday, the Interfax news agency reported.
Alexei Likhachev said there were more than 600 personnel at the Bushehr plant and that they were leaving the country, according to Interfax. Nearly 100 plant personnel were evacuated on Saturday, when US and Israeli strikes on Iran began.
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03-03-26 carib
| The unpredictable part.. is Trump's mind. |
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03-03-26 carib
| As predictable.. Dollar up.. |
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03-03-26 carib
Savo: neither has the military means to do that, and neither imagines attacking US forces.
Question is to make the clerical regime collapse you need an armed uprising.. = give the people machine guns. |
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03-03-26 carib
Panas: I do not think the 88 beards will actually meet.
that would be an ideal target.. maybe a zoom call? |
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03-03-26 savo
pana...China and Russia were not going to let the US take Iran after taking veni.
The question now is full endless war with a budget deficit of 2.5trn or a quick and elegant retreat to avoid further cost.
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03-03-26 panasonic
Masks are off, it has always been a race to have supremacy in the region and control of world's oil supply, the question is are we in for a long conflict or not?
The short term playbook (if me was asked), the council of fundamentalist clerics is composed of 88, eliminate the most radical ones and pray next leader is one that has no nuclear ambitions....in'shallah! |
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03-03-26 spal
U.S. State Department orders the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and family in Bahrain and Jordan.
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03-03-26 spal
HOLD MAXIMUM POSITIONS. The "Shock Phase" is underway, with ton-mile math (e.g., 20% capacity loss) inescapable.
Stocks may gap up on resolution, but current confusion favors entry. Watch for US Sovereign Guarantee: No confirmation yet—insurers are canceling covers, not backstopping.
A Treasury/coalition guarantee could unlock the stranded fleet, triggering a rate normalization but short-term surge from backlog clearance.
Absent this, stasis persists, bolstering owners of modern, compliant tonnage.
Politically incorrect note: Shadow fleet inefficiencies (e.g., Venezuelan normalization reducing demand) further tighten commercial supply, favoring listed players.
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03-03-26 spal
Over 200 tankers are anchored near Hormuz, with traffic plunging amid Iranian threats and navigation interference.
War-risk cover has been canceled by major clubs (e.g., Gard, Skuld) effective March 5, excluding Iranian/Gulf waters—rates could surge 50%+ (from 0.2-0.25% to 0.5-1% of hull value).
This freezes movements, removing ~20% effective capacity even if the strait reopens, aligning with your "months to clear backlog" expectation.
No demand weakness is evident; it's purely supply-side.
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03-03-26 spal
VLCC (Crude): TD3C (Middle East Gulf-to-China) rates have indeed surpassed $200,000/day, with assessments reaching $423,736/day on March 2—far exceeding the thesis's $200k figure and confirming a ~440% YoY surge. This reflects extreme tightness, with earnings at $209,550/day round-trip.
The market is pricing in 20-30% effective capacity removal from detours.
Suezmax (Crude): Gulf rates have hit or exceeded $250,000/day, with MEG-Med assessments at $267,579/day (up 23% intraday) and Black Sea-Med at $146,283/day TCE. This supports the thesis's emphasis on flexibility for STS transfers and contested waters.
MR/LR2 (Product): Clean rates are rising 10-15% weekly, with LR2 MEG-Japan at WS197 ($45,800/day TCE, up 24%) and MR USG-Continent up 530% YoY to ~$36,000/day. Refinery risks in Saudi/UAE are shifting sourcing to the Atlantic, boosting distances.
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03-03-26 spal
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03-03-26 spal
| CRS (Carpenter Technology): STRONG BUY VALIDATED. CRS closed at $408.84, up 2.7% on the day, after hitting an intraday all-time high of $410.10. The "Defense Bottleneck" is the dominant story, with investors ignoring broader market weakness to bid up the only provider of high-spec alloys for the B-21 and missile platforms. |
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03-03-26 victor
| Saudi Arabia says US Embassy in Riyadh attacked by two drones, causing a 'limited fire' |
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03-03-26 savo
under Israeli orders
Trump Vows ‘Whatever It Takes’ on Iran as Conflict Widens
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03-02-26 carib
Qatar shoots down two Iranian Su-24 fighter jets over airspace as Gulf states suffer Iran strikes
I did not know Iran still had some aircraft that could fly.. |
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03-02-26 carib
| Savo: I do not think countries should bomb any neighbour they dislike. But I do think that the ayatollahs should not be allowed to have nukes. That implies that either they give up for real, or their regime should be annihilated.I hope one of the two outcomes in achieved, preferably the second. |
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03-02-26 pillz
if some colores are interested in Iron Beam laser ..
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-888515 |
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03-02-26 pillz
No longer a “Conspiracy Theory”
Israel just used a Directed Energy Weapon (DEWs)
“Israel used their high-powered laser weapon, the ‘Iron Beam’”
During Biden’s term the media worked relentlessly to Fact Check these weapons as conspiracy theories
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/2028305506511782343?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2028305506511782343%7Ctwgr%5Eba4753c066afd27f969bfaa7510e50394f39cc78%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Fdefense-news%2Farticle-888515 |
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03-02-26 savo
carib.. i congratulate Trump too on veni... after 8 years of senseless sanctions started by Obama and augmented by him in his first presidency...
As for Iran... i do not like the ayatollahs as i do not like any muslim regime... but still do not know why Trump is madly bombing Iran. |
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03-02-26 spal
New position NAT ... will catch up with the rest of the fleet.
Shipping rate outlook is higher for longer ... |
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03-02-26 spal
Larry Ellison: AI Models Becoming Interchangeable Commodities |
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03-02-26 carib
| Drone shares doing fine, for good reasons. |
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03-02-26 carib
| Flying to the USA in two days, hopefully no problem. |
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03-02-26 carib
Savo: I only have the choice to be pragmatic.
I am not a US person.
I disagree with MAGA theories, but I congratulate Trump on Veny and Iran.(which are actually not at all MAGA aligned).
I wish the EU grew cojones of her own, but I have no available instrument to make that happen. |
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03-02-26 leopardo
| Sooner or later they will recover Carib |
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03-02-26 carib
| PDVsa bonds down 3/8ths of a point |
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03-02-26 savo
| that maniac belongs in a loonie house. |
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03-02-26 spal
| Trump tells CNN the "big wave" is yet to come in war with Iran |
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03-02-26 pillz
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03-02-26 savo
| European fools end up paying the price of US follies. |
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03-02-26 savo
Qatar stopped production of liquefied natural gas after attacks by Iranian drones.
About 20% of global LNG exports come from the Persian Gulf, primarily Qatar, and are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
European natural gas futures soared after the shutdown.
Iran has launched missiles at U.S. allies across the Gulf in retaliation for massive strikes by the U.S. and Israel that killed its head of state, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. |
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03-02-26 savo
Treasuries Sink as Oil Jump Stokes Inflation Fears
can't go to war if your country is broke. |
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03-02-26 pillz
US markets have opened lower, following declines across Asia and Europe. But defying the trend was Israel.
The Tel Aviv 35 index rose almost 4% to a record on Monday, the first day of trading after Israel and the US began attacks on Iran. It’s among the best performing markets this year.
The Israel shekel jumped about 1.5% and is the only major world currency to appreciate against the dollar. |
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03-02-26 panasonic
| No reaction in pdvsa bonds yet? |
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03-02-26 spal
| Russia remains largely silent, but the targeting of the Bandar Abbas region (the INSTC anchor) remains their "Red Line." If this is crossed, Moscow’s neutrality is likely over. |
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03-02-26 spal
| The IDF is currently weighing a ground invasion of Lebanon |
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03-02-26 spal
Factors Continuing the Trend:
The "Shadow Fleet" Isolation: 27% of the global fleet is now dedicated to sanctioned trades (Russia/Iran/Venezuela), meaning they cannot "swing" back to help Western routes.
Fleet Age: 44% of VLCCs are over 15 years old. Vetting standards at major ports mean these ships are increasingly ineligible for the most profitable "Blue Chip" routes. |
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03-02-26 spal
Entity-Specific Outlook
DHT Holdings (DHT): The Scalpel. As a VLCC pure-play with a modern fleet, DHT has the highest torque to the $200k/day spot rates. Their recent charters at $90k–$105k/day provide a massive cash-flow floor.
Frontline (FRO): The Dividend King. With the $1.03/share quarterly dividend (442% increase) and 92% of VLCC days already booked at $107,100/day, FRO is essentially a "Cash Harvest" vehicle.
International Seaways (INSW): The Defensive Pivot. Their diversified fleet (VLCCs + MR Product Tankers) protects you if crude flows stabilize but refined product demand (gasoline/diesel) spikes due to detour-related shortages.
TORM (TRMD): The Clean Specialist. Benefiting from the "refinery gap." As Gulf refineries face operational risks, refined products must be shipped from further away (India/US), making TORM’s MR fleet essential. |
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03-02-26 spal
Tanker Rate Analysis: The "Hormuz Vertical"
The rate environment is currently defined by a "One-Way Flow Out" from the Persian Gulf and a total re-routing of global oil logistics.
VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers): Rates for the Middle East Gulf-to-China (TD3C) route have breached the $200,000/day threshold—a 440% YoY increase.
Suezmax & Aframax: These "smaller" vessels are seeing even more violent price action as they are utilized for the flexible detours. Black Sea-to-Med Suezmax rates are now above $140,000/day.
The Ton-Mile Trap: By detouring around the Cape of Good Hope, a round trip from the Gulf to Europe now takes 14–20 days longer. This effectively removes ~20% of the world’s available tanker capacity without a single ship being sunk. |
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03-02-26 spal
Gold has decisively cleared the psychological barrier, hitting $5,400/oz this morning.
These 2 are my gold plays:
Aris Mining (ARIS) - Colombia base: Successfully uplisted to the NYSE (ticker: ARIS) on Feb 19. With gold at $5,400, Aris is entering a "Cash Harvest" phase. Having beaten 2025 guidance by 22%, the company is now fully funded for its Marmato expansion, targeting 500,000 oz/year.
K92 Mining (KNTNF) - New Guinea base: Just reported record annual results. With an AISC of $1,619/oz and gold at $5,400, their profit margin exceeds $3,700/oz. The 93% increase in ore processing capacity ensures they are the highest-torque junior on your list.
Both controlled from Canada. |
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03-02-26 spal
3 US warplanes shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses, pilots bail out in friendly fire incident, CENTCOM says
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Somebody f_tcked up. |
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03-02-26 spal
Regarding Carib...as a master of disguise..
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LOL |
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03-02-26 spal
This demonstrates that these hard assets are the true hard currency during this extraordinary period.”
Yes. |
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03-02-26 savo
spal.. the fundamental point...is that US$ assets are in a secular bear market when measured in real money...and by real money i mean the only money that existed until a bunch of clever guys decided to go fiat in the early 70s.
For somebody expert in stock picking like yourself... it may not be important... for the common mortal like myself.. it is very important to know if i am making money or not... and for that I need a parameter.
Regarding Carib...as a master of disguise... defends the US but invests mostly outside the US$.
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03-02-26 pillz
Provisional rates to hire a tanker to carry oil from the Middle East to China have more than doubled since Friday due to the war in the Middle East and an increasingly tight supply of vessels.
A Suezmax that can hold as much as 1 million barrels of crude was fixed on the route at a rate of 525 industry standard Worldscale points, according to shipbrokers. That compares with 225 points on Friday and WS50 at the start of the year.
The industry uses so-called Worldscale rates as a way to easily calculate both vessel earnings and per-barrel freight costs across thousands of trade routes.
The widening war in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is turbocharging tanker costs, which had already been rising on the growing threat of a conflict. The price moves are being exacerbated by a concentration of supertanker ownership, after South Korean shipper Sinokor Merchant Marine went on a very-large crude carrier buying spree in recent months.
Voyages on the Middle East to China route are normally agreed on based on tonnage available on a VLCC that can carry as much as 2 million barrels. |
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03-02-26 pillz
Oil Tanker Rates Skyrocket on Key Middle East-to-China Route
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-02/oil-tanker-rates-skyrocket-on-key-middle-east-to-china-route |
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03-02-26 pillz
| “Precious metals, oil and commodities are rising despite the dollar’s rebound, even though they are priced in US dollars. This demonstrates that these hard assets are the true hard currency during this extraordinary period.” |
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03-02-26 spal
1 * (1+r)^n
is by definition going to be a shit ton larger than 1 as n grows ... subject to r.
This is all you are saying.
We all know this. |
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03-02-26 spal
Savo ... dollars are my denominator ... your example fails as you are applying a compounding rate to a monetary denominator.
Anyone with any sense has those "dollars" invested and mostly (if they are smart) at higher rates than you compound assumption.
I don't think you understand your own example. |
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03-02-26 savo
spal.. keep hoarding dollars backed by your sixth fleet.. that i keep hoarding gold
as time passes you will need more dollars to buy the same goods.. and i will need less gold..
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03-02-26 spal
Carib made an excellent point today:
I think, on the other hand, that proven military superiority regenerates "exorbitant privilege"..
If you don't see the set back BRICS took today then again I can't help you.
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03-02-26 spal
or that people want gold and silver
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A mere flight to safety ... always has been and always will be. It is NOT an investment. It is a speculation.
I hold it for speculative purposes only. |
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03-02-26 spal
Savo - you and I are at cross purposes.
If you don't understand that power comes out of the barrel of a gun I can't help you. |
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03-02-26 spal
Savo ... why don't you just start you deflationary series with Antediluvian if it makes you feel like what you are saying is important?
Gold is a speculative asset.
Dollars are a denominator.
Compound interest if taken over a long time can move the earth. Ask Einstein. Albert Einstein is widely credited with calling compound interest the "eighth wonder of the world".
The idea is to find investments in the meantime.
Nothing else matters in this biz. |
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03-02-26 savo
so what
what part you do not understand?...
that people do not want the backing of the sixth fleet which basically means more money printing... or that people want gold and silver? |
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03-02-26 spal
nobody wants the sixth fleet.
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So what? |
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03-02-26 spal
Germany, France, and the UK are ready to take defensive action against Iran.
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03-02-26 savo
The Sixth Fleet.
exactly... problem... nobody wants the sixth fleet... or the US$.. people want gold and silver...
as an example... when the fed was created in december 1913 and ounce of gold costed 20 dollars... now 5200.
so much for the sixth fleet...or the Fed.
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03-02-26 spal
Besides Tankers - holding gold, Antimony, Copper, Rare Earth Processing Capacity (in the US), Data center and Health Care (aged folks) REITS, and CRS.
In a 2026 economy where AI commoditizes software, Carpenter Technology (CRS) stands as a resilient "Physical Moat" play, leveraging irreplaceable metallurgy for global security hardware. With aerospace demand surging—driven by U.S. Air Force's 25% B-21 Raider production acceleration for 2027 deliveries—CRS benefits as a primary supplier of high-temperature superalloys for engines like LEAP/GTF and military platforms. Record Q2 FY26 results underscore operating leverage: SAO margins hit 33.1% (16th straight increase), with FY26 adjusted FCF projected at least $280M and operating income raised to $680-700M. Physical scarcity amplifies pricing power; VIM capacity bottlenecks persist amid global superalloy shortages, with no digital alternatives for hypersonic warfare or nuclear SMRs. Trading near $400/share, CRS is re-rating from cyclical to strategic asset, supported by decade-long backlogs and raw material volatility favoring incumbents. Risks include geopolitical delays, but balanced capital allocation (e.g., $183M buybacks) and brownfield expansions position CRS for sustained growth. Strong Buy on volume uptick; $400 floor, targeting $600 as aerospace ramps.
Tankers are my largest position.
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03-02-26 savo
| carib.. no doubt.. 72 devils... the same 72 devils that are waiting for the US government and the EU commission. |
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03-02-26 spal
COSCO Tankers opens limit up 15% in Asia.
All others to follow.
And so it begins ... |
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