06-06-26 carib
like the old
Anglo-Persian oil co |
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06-06-26 carib
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06-06-26 carib
Savo: no.
Petroleos do Brasil
not Petroleos brasileiros-americanos.
One should whisper to Trump the idea of AmVeCo.. |
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06-06-26 savo
isn't pbr..brazilian-american?
given the pbr quotes in ADRs? |
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06-06-26 carib
| ArAm co is not like Petrobras etc.. it's Arab-American... |
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06-06-26 carib
Venezuela eliminó de su propuesta de normativa petrolera una cláusula que permitía al Estado rescindir contratos con compañías extranjeras bajo el argumento de "interés público", con indemnizaciones por debajo del valor de mercado.
De acuerdo con Bloomberg, la modificación busca hacer más atractivo el marco legal para la inversión extranjera en el sector energético, en medio de intentos del país por reactivar su industria petrolera tras años de sanciones y caída de la producción.
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06-06-26 carib
The world’s biggest oil tanker owners have raised the spectre of a market crash only weeks after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz helped power the industry to a quarter of record profits.
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06-06-26 carib
| Problem is a patently illegitimate de facto government should change the Veny constitution is a way that cannot be revised by the successor. Not a very good idea. |
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06-06-26 carib
Savo: AmVesa, like ArAmco.
then the problem is solved. |
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06-06-26 savo
and sell a part of PDVsa on the market, turning it into a private company, like ARAMco.
an pbr and ypf...etc...of course... but that is for the future..
in the meantime if they haircut pdvsa and the sov... they will borrow more expensive on both...
if they haircut only one.. the rep... they preserve pdvsa for cheaper future borrowing and send the message ...pdvsa is and will always be safe. |
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06-06-26 panasonic
Carib, maybe Sanders' proposal attractive to more than a few ;-)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/maga-hates-ai-but-trump-agrees-with-bernie-it-might-be-time-for-partial-government-ownership/ar-AA24XNcm?ocid=msedgntp&pc=LGTS&cvid=6a243b522d3f4285bdc70b77208e82f5&ei=29 |
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06-06-26 panasonic
"Delcy reding colores has learnt something from Savo"
If not, she should :-)) |
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06-06-26 panasonic
"buy netflix shares?"
That's the tricky part Carib, a youtuber made a film with $750K that netted $80millions only in one weekend, buy NFLX or gets killed on the AI crunch?
Me say, buy calls and pray :-) |
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06-06-26 victor
carib, Will Delcy ask for an IMF programme, or not?
no |
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06-06-26 carib
Maybe Delcy should DT to provide temporary safe harbour for Veny sovereign assets and sell a part of PDVsa on the market, turning it into a private company, like ARAMco.
Cherry on the cake would be accepting PDVsa bonds as coin to buy shares.. |
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06-06-26 savo
may be Delcy reads Colores , has learnt something from Savo the First and plans to tackle PDVSA before moving onto the sov...
Debt sustainability is a sovereign problem... not a corporate one. Veni needs an IMF program for sure...but IMF programs are for sovereigns not for corps.
It would be a very bad precedent to haircut pdvsa debt. It will make it more expensive for years to come to fund it.
Delcy can argue pdvsa would have never defaulted had it not be for sanctions. Reprofile the debt and leave PDVSA in its original immaculate condition. Secure cheaper funding instead for the foreseeable future. |
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06-06-26 leopardo
| Seems she is not so willing but we shall see… |
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06-06-26 carib
Leo: IMF spokeswoman statement:
typically, when a country chooses to restructure its debt, the discussions are between the country authorities and their creditors. The Fund does not participate in those discussions. Most debt restructurings, not all, but most, take place under the umbrella of a Fund program, and our role is to provide the macroeconomic framework. When it's a program, it's agreed obviously with the authorities. And that includes essentially an amount of debt relief that would be needed to restore debt sustainability. So that's really the role of the IMF, but then the discussions themselves, the negotiations, are between the country authorities and their creditors, and we don't participate in those.
Will Delcy ask for an IMF programme, or not?
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06-06-26 savo
i agree with most of these except with the strong job market... most of the jobs are an estimation of the birth-death model:
"In economic tracking, a birth-death model estimates the net jobs created by new businesses opening ("births") and lost from companies closing ("deaths") that cannot be immediately captured by payroll surveys.Because it takes months for new firms to appear on government tax and administrative records, statisticians use this model to forecast these establishment changes and prevent employment reports from lagging"
Bull Theory
@BullTheoryio
EVERYTHING THAT COULD GO WRONG FOR MARKETS WENT WRONG TODAY.
S&P 500 down -1.65%, wiping out $1.14 trillion.
Nasdaq down -2.60%, wiping out $1.11 trillion.
Gold down -3.38%, wiping out $1 trillion.
Silver down -6.9%, wiping out $280 billion.
Bitcoin down -6.31%, wiping out $80 billion.
In total $2.5 TRILLION wiped out in a single session. These were not isolated moves. Everything started breaking at the same time.
It started with the jobs report this morning.
The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May. Wall Street expected 88,000. That is almost double.
On any normal day, strong jobs is good news. But inflation is already at 3.8% and oil is sitting at $90. A labor market this strong tells the Fed it cannot cut interest rates and may actually need to raise them.
The probability of a rate hike this year went from 40% to 57% in a single day. That spooked every investor holding tech and growth stocks because higher rates mean those stocks are worth less today.
Then the AI trade started cracking.
Yesterday Broadcom reported record earnings: revenue up 48%, AI chip sales up 143% and the stock still crashed 12.6%. The reason was simple.
Broadcom did not raise its AI revenue targets for the year. Investors had expected it to. That single miss made people ask a question they had been avoiding for months: are we paying too much for AI stocks?
That question got louder today when a research firm called SemiAnalysis revealed that Nvidia's next-generation AI chips will need significantly less memory than everyone assumed, roughly half of what the market was pricing in.
Memory chips are what companies like SK Hynix and Samsung make. SK Hynix fell nearly 10% today. Samsung fell over 6%.
South Korea's entire stock market crashed 5.5% in a single session. Japan's semiconductor stocks did the same.
And then Anthropic added fuel to the fire by publishing a report warning that AI is getting close to the point where it can improve itself without human help and calling for a global pause in AI development.
Coming on the same day as the memory demand news and Broadcom's miss, it fed a single growing fear across the market: what if the AI boom is moving faster than the business models can keep up with?
Underneath all of this, there is a liquidity problem nobody is talking about.
SpaceX goes public next week at a $1.75 trillion valuation. Anthropic just filed to go public. OpenAI is next.
These three companies together are worth $4 to $5 trillion. Fund managers need cash to buy into these listings.
But cash levels are already at their lowest since early 2024. The only way to raise cash is to sell what they already own. That selling is happening right now.
The new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also hold his very first policy meeting in 11 days. He was appointed by Trump with the expectation of cutting rates.
He is now walking into a situation where inflation is high, oil is high, and the job market is running hot. Investors do not know what he will do.
When nobody knows what the most powerful central banker in the world will decide in less than two weeks, the safest move is to reduce risk today.
Everything that could go wrong, went wrong at the same time. A hot jobs report, a collapsing ceasefire, a crack in the AI trade, a trillion dollar liquidity drain, and a Fed meeting with no clear outcome. |
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06-06-26 leopardo
FMI aclara que no participa en la reestructuración de la deuda externa de Venezuela
https://www.analitica.com/actualidad-internacional/fmi-aclara-que-no-participa-en-la-reestructuracion-de-la-deuda-externa-de-venezuela/
Good/Bad we shall see |
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06-06-26 carib
Panas: buy netflix shares?
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06-06-26 panasonic
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06-06-26 panasonic
Carib, yep "pan y circo" tax rates.
Market moves 3% up or 5% down daily, what's the importance of 0.25% more or less a year?
Inflow in the markets (now also prediction markets) is massive.
Winners (1%?) will be visible, cars, houses, boats.
Lovers (99%?) stay home watching nflx, TikTok and eating 3$ meals. |
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06-06-26 carib
| Savo: correct.. but the "rate hikes" expected are very small, in line with inflation increase.. (unless I am mistaken) |
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06-06-26 savo
leo.. that is my opinion... but the market .... whatever the market is these days ...is pricing in rate hikes!
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06-06-26 leopardo
| No default, print print print…. |
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06-05-26 savo
carib... death by inflation or death by financial crisis.... and then ...by inflation.
There is not way out for a 40 trn debt that rolls over 1/3 every 12 months, 2trn budget deficit... endless wars... a government and congress that have no intention to put the house in order and whose only real policy is to enrich their friends and family. |
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06-05-26 spal
| Best purchase I made this week was another duplex in Appleton, Wisconsin. |
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06-05-26 spal
| Colores in the main vindicated on our aversion to BTC. |
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06-05-26 panasonic
Maybe (maybe) people piling cash to participate in IPOs.
Cash was a good place to be, when me posted.
Pdvsa is doing fine, but no margin on those.
I need cash to buy what monkeys sold. |
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06-05-26 pillz
Gold erased its gains this year as robust US jobs data fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates this year, a headwind for the precious metal.
Bullion declined as much as 3.5% to $4,319.19 an ounce, giving up this year’s advance, as bond yields and the dollar climbed after the latest US data showed job growth topped all forecasts in May. The strength in the labor market keeps the door open for Fed officials to hike rates as Middle East tensions fuel higher energy prices. Higher rates are typically negative for non-yielding bullion. |
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06-05-26 carib
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06-05-26 carib
Savo: are you buying more GLD?
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06-05-26 savo
the difference between gold and btc though... is that btc goes down because people are trying to get the hell out of tokenised nothing... while the price of gold is determined in the futures market where nobody has to show the gold they are selling...
Nobody is offering big chunks of physical gold to sell... there are no buyers and so the price goes down...
Algos sell what they do not have on the hope of covering at a lower price...in cash settlements.
But as we speak the volume of gold and silver sold in the paper market continues growing while the availability of physical gold and silver available for delivery continues dropping. There will be a day when buyers will demand delivery and there will be no physical to deliver.
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06-05-26 victor
PDVsa bonds steady..
the new safe haven :-)))
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06-05-26 carib
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06-05-26 panasonic
Even oil is down, people moving to value to discover monday that those companies won't grow, so it was better cash (even inflation adjusted).
So that has been Q for weeks, which asset will lose "less" on the downturn? |
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06-05-26 savo
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06-05-26 carib
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06-05-26 savo
who was swimming naked
.... the other way around... nobody is swimming naked... it is the BTC as tokenised nothing which is a swimming costume without anybody wearing it.
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06-05-26 panasonic
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06-05-26 victor
savo, Nakamoto announced a 1-for-40 reverse stock split !!
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Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin’s slide this week is adding fresh pressure to one of the most ambitious financial experiments to emerge from the recent crypto boom: publicly traded companies created to accumulate digital assets on behalf of investors.
Shares of dozens of these digital-asset treasury companies have continued to sink alongside the broader market downturn, extending losses that in many cases far exceed those of the cryptocurrencies they were built to own. The combined market value of fully diluted Bitcoin treasury company stocks has fallen to about $72 billion from nearly $134 billion at its most recent peak in early October, according to Artemis data, erasing $62 billion and underscoring how a once-hot crypto trade continues to unravel.
Bitcoin has dropped about 15% this week to trade around a four-month lows of around $62,000. The latest retreat, fueled in part by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. announcing its first sale of Bitcoin since 2022, hasn’t been disorderly — unlike the crash last October that shook the digital-asset complex.
Still, companies that once promised investors leveraged exposure to a perpetual crypto bull market are increasingly focused on survival, conducting reverse stock splits, issuing preferred securities, restructuring financing arrangements and, in some cases, selling portions of the crypto assets they once pledged to accumulate indefinitely.
“With prices now unwinding, digital-asset treasuries are faced with a stark choice: default on their debt or sell assets,” said Hayden Hughes, managing partner at Tokenize Capital. “The forced selling has shattered the perception that they would monotonically act as permanent ‘buy and hold’ investors.”
Digital-asset treasury companies, or DATs, were built on a simple premise: public markets would assign a premium to firms willing to stockpile cryptocurrencies, allowing them to issue stock, buy more tokens and repeat the process.
The model worked spectacularly as prices climbed. It has proved far less durable as crypto prices have retreated and investors have become more selective. The latest decline in Bitcoin has only added to the pressure, with the token losing about half its value since its October peak.
On balance, the trade allowed early backers and sponsors to capitalize on investor enthusiasm at the peak of the digital-asset treasury cycle, while retail investors absorbed much of the pain when valuations began to unravel.
“Digital-asset treasuries and other corporate BTC holdings collectively exceed 5% of supply, which accelerated adoption among Wall Street in a sense — but at the cost of heightened volatility for retail participants chasing the ‘easy’ wrapper,” said Akshat Vaidya, who has overseen investments in several DATs as co-founder and managing partner of Arthur Hayes’s family office, Maelstrom.
David Bailey-led Bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto announced a 1-for-40 reverse stock split as its shares slumped almost 100% in the past year. Japan’s Metaplanet, the world’s third-largest Bitcoin treasury, has disappointed some investors with the lack of progress surrounding its much-anticipated preferred share offering. The stock is down more than 80% from a year ago.
Twenty One Capital has also undergone ownership changes, with SoftBank Group Inc. selling its entire 26% stake to Tether. The company’s shares are down 84% in the past year. ProCap Financial this week announced the sale of 52 Bitcoin to fund a share repurchase.
Carney Mak, a partner at FXHB Asset Management, said the firm included Strategy in its portfolio around two years ago “as a leveraged expression of our Bitcoin view.”
FXHB booked profit on a majority of their Strategy holdings during the rally, though a small portion is now at a loss, which the fund will sell at an “appropriate opportunity to rotate the remaining capital into higher-conviction ideas,” Mak said.
The latest downturn has only intensified those pressures. Investors have pulled billions of dollars from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, geopolitical tensions have pushed money toward traditional safe havens and many of the DATs that emerged during the boom have fallen far more than Bitcoin itself.
“In hindsight, the more interesting lesson is not whether Bitcoin was the right call, but whether the Bitcoin treasury trade had become too crowded,” FXHB’s Mak said. “By the time a growing number of companies were attempting to replicate the MSTR playbook, much of the scarcity value had arguably already been captured.”
The strains are most visible among smaller companies that copied Strategy’s model without its scale, liquidity or access to capital, pushing them to experiment with ways to keep the model alive. What was marketed as a simple accumulation strategy has evolved into a scramble for capital as stock-price premiums disappear.
Like many financial manias before it, the DAT boom looked most durable near the top. Months after the excitement faded, the unwind continues.
“The market is not fine, and it took the tide going out to see who was swimming naked,” Tokenize Capital’s Hughes said. “Turns out, it was DATs and their equity holders.”
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06-05-26 panasonic
AI babies are growing fast, so fast Anthropic is scared:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-urges-global-pause-in-ai-development-flags-self-improvement-risk-99cefb73 |
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06-05-26 pillz
Asian stocks declined along with US equity-index futures as enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade cooled after driving markets to record highs this year.
MSCI’s regional equity gauge dropped 2.1%, with South Korea — the world’s best-performing gauge this year and a bellwether for AI investments — tumbling 6.5%. Futures contracts for the Nasdaq 100 Index dropped 1.3%, indicating a third day of losses for the gauge as investors rotate out of technology and chip stocks. |
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Board
