07-13-26 spal
Enter the doomsters on X now emboldened:
🏴☠️
@calvinfroedge
If you want to know why people like me are so salty and seemingly happy that the world is headed off a cliff due to the Iran conflict, it's because they suppressed every free market mechanism that would have prevented a crisis and in doing so made a crisis all the more certain |
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07-12-26 carib
Sen. Mitch McConnell on Sunday revealed for the first time that a fall led to his hospitalization, breaking the silence about his condition after weeks of mounting speculation about the Kentucky Republican’s health.
MAGA conspiracy theorists are arguing McConnell has actually been dead for some time..
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07-12-26 carib
| The natural limits of gerontocracy.. |
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07-12-26 carib
| Graham’s office said the District of Columbia medical examiner made preliminary findings that the senator died of an aortic tear due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. |
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07-12-26 victor
carib
Emergency personnel responded to a call for "cardiac arrest" at Graham's Capitol Hill home on Saturday night, NBC reported, citing police scanner audio. |
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07-12-26 panasonic
| Carib, hard to speculate on such things, but true, all as you posted. |
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07-12-26 carib
Graham had just returned from Kyiv, where he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. There were no known health concerns ahead of his trip.
Trump told NBC News that he had spoken with Graham |
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07-12-26 carib
| Panas: just surprised by the news. He was standing for re-election, and was travelling until a few days ago. I have no info. |
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07-12-26 panasonic
"I would say it can pay 6 bn initially.. more over time..."
Savo, If they tap markets with new debt, how much in the first round in your opinion? |
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07-12-26 panasonic
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07-12-26 carib
| Lindsay Graham suddenly dies a day after steering the bipartisan agreement on new Russia sanctions.. |
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07-12-26 Merlino
...and confirmation of compliance with the IMF
debt-sustainability parameters.
..............
I wonder what the IMF will say in the case of Veni.....they say they are out of this bz for the time being however I suppose they will also be called "confirm" sustainability |
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07-12-26 savo
i agree leo... but ethiopia gdp is what it is and will not change much in real terms over the next 20 years.
Veni gdp today is the consequence of chavism, sanctions and an earthquake...but it is not tomorrow's gdp without sanctions and with oil production at full throttle.
Veni's debt does not have to pay its debt today... not even tomorrow... all it has to do is service that debt and as the market re-opens over time... refinance the principal while repaying some.
So...how much interest can veni pay per annumm...?
I would say it can pay 6 bn initially.. more over time...
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07-12-26 leopardo
| Ethiopiam debt is about 45/50% of GDP different from Veny Savo.. |
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07-12-26 savo
context:
Ethiopia has reached an agreement in principle (AIP) with the Ad Hoc
Committee to restructure the $1bn 2024 Eurobond.
• The proposal has received a no-objection from the Co-Chairs of the Official
Creditor Committee (OCC) and confirmation of compliance with the IMF
debt-sustainability parameters.
• The exchange proposes swapping the defaulted 2024s into new 2029s with a
12% nominal haircut and the new-money warrant, which provides the right to
subscribe to the future eurobond issuance at pre-agreed terms.
We estimate recovery levels from the 2029s alone could be ~106-107pts with the rest of
the upside coming from warrants. We expect the proposed 2029s to trade at a 6-7% yield
post the exchange, i.e. at similar levels to its African peers (Figure 2We estimate the proposed Ethiopia 2029s to trade at around 6-7% yields similar to its Africa pers ). Note that given its
staggered amortisation profile, the average life of this bond will be less than 2y, similar to
Ghana 2029s, which means the bond could trade at the tighter end of the 6-7% range. Given
this, the 2029s could trade at ~108-110pts in price, which puts the implied recovery level of
2024s at ~106-107pts from 2029s alone (Figure 3We estimate the implied recovery from the 2029s alone to be ~106-107pts with warants providing further upside ). As the 2024s are trading at ~109pts, we
estimate markets are pricing the warrants at ~2-3pts. |
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07-12-26 spal
BREAKING: Initial reports of direct impacts at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, following the Iranian attacks.
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