03-20-26 panasonic
| Thanks Pilly, maybe private credit troubles also playing a roll in this sell-off, it is an 11T$ market of people asking for redemptions, one fucking mess. |
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03-20-26 pillz
for Pana:
Gold plunges
Along with bonds, gold is getting hammered by the global reset in interest-rate expectations. It’s a massive unwind of what was one of hottest trades of last year.
Bullion, at about $4,699 an ounce, is down 7% on the week and more than 11% so far in March. If that move holds through the end of the month, it would be the biggest drop since 2008.
It’s a move is driven as much by technicals as by fundamentals. Spot prices broke through their 50-day moving average this week and briefly tested the 100-day level, which has consistently acted as support since 2023.
Once-hot gold-mining stocks are tumbling, and investors are pulling cash from bullion-backed ETFs. The funds are set for a third week of outflows, with holdings falling more than 60 tons, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Higher interest rates hurt gold as it doesn’t pay interest.
“Do not buy-the-dip — there’s way too much volatility,” said Robert Gottlieb, a former precious-metals trader at JPMorgan. —Tatiana Darie and Yihui Xie |
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03-20-26 carib
SPAL: for the record. If I had any public function in Europe, I would be in favour of supporting the US and Israel, provided I was treated as an ally and friend, and not as a cowardly foe.
Such support would obviously require a clear and shared definition of the objective, that currently tends to oscillate by the day following domestic US political concerns.
I do not like Netanyahu's ways, but would trust Israel to stand united on the objective, given it's survival is at stake.
Europe should be treated as a friend, not like a servant. |
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03-20-26 savo
regarding precious metals... nothing has changed... the dollar continues being as doomed as before... and more so now that in the middle of a war has rallied only 3% against the euro.. so much for safe heaven ... and treasuries have sold off...
US federal debt is quickly approaching 40 trn... the deficit is above 2trn and with the war it is going up... wars are always longer and more expansive the originally planned... so expect.. more debt.. more deficit and more inflation.
PPI came in February at 0.7% so inflation is accelerating... and that was before the oil shock..so even if they do not cut rates.. as inflation goes up... rates are effectively going down.
Look at this table... in 1913 when the fed was created an ounce of gold costed 20 dollars... 100 years before in 1813 it costed..... 20 dollars... 100 and 13 years later in 2026 it costs 4600
do you think the fed of the next 100 years will be any better than the Fed of the last 100?
https://onlygold.com/gold-prices/historical-gold-prices/ |
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03-20-26 spal
Iran can hit 400 yards from the Western Wall and chose 400 yards from the Western Wall. Not the Wall itself. Not Al-Aqsa. 400 yards. The message. The هوشمند and the کامل. The ذكية and the كاملة. The intelligent and the complete. Iran showing it can reach the holiest site in the world and choosing not to hit it. The precision that is the restraint.
The 400 yards - that is the warning. |
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03-20-26 spal
| 400 yards from the Western Wall and Al-Aqsa |
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03-20-26 spal
Footage of an Iranian ballistic missile hitting the old city of Jerusalem, falling roughly 400 yards from the Western Wall and Al-Aqsa.
==== |
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03-20-26 spal
|
03-20-26 spal
This is a shameful moment in Western history, leaders standing like frightened cowards before the Islamist jihadist rats ruling Iran. Starmer in Britain. The German Chancellor. They want the oil. The gas. The markets. But when it comes to defending it? Silence. Cowardice. Excuses. At the same time they rush to talk with the Islamic regime in Iran.
So let’s be clear: Zero friendship. Zero loyalty. Zero respect for their own interests or for the civilization they claim to defend. Do not speak to us again about friendship. Do not lecture the world about freedom.
We watched you stand against your closest ally, America, while hoping the Islamist regime in Iran wins this confrontation.
Written by Amjad Taha - the Bahrain-based Regional Director of the British Middle East Centre for Studies and Research, the author of “The Deception of the Arab Spring”, and an advisor to senior GCC government officials. |
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03-20-26 spal
NEXT bounced back up ... likely on Kharg Island speculation.
PBF ... added. |
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03-20-26 spal
deleveraging
==
Leo that is what I heard also. |
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03-20-26 panasonic
|
03-20-26 victor
pana, 2027 general elections? which party would? the PP?
after CyL a few days ago, i don't see sanchez staying in moncloa.
strikes in Cat against the PSC/PSOE are hard to come by.
and is a tell-tale sign.
as the 3 recent regional elections show, sanchez has managed to screw those on his left (gone), and VOX screwed themselves for supporting DT, as CyL shows.
|
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03-20-26 leopardo
| Only one is interest rates rising and deleveraging |
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03-20-26 panasonic
| Pilly, have you found reason why previous metals prices are falling? |
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03-20-26 spal
Let's see if Keith Richards outlives him ... that will be the real test of lifestyle ...
;) |
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03-20-26 panasonic
| Norris RIP, he lived in full till last moments. |
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03-20-26 panasonic
Vic, that people will vote next year in general elections for:
"Increase productivity and reduce welfare"? |
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03-20-26 victor
"So easy for them to do"
//
if it's so easy, why doesn't the usa do the "simple military maneuver" ?
Without the U.S.A., NATO IS A PAPER TIGER! They didn’t want to join the fight to stop a Nuclear Powered Iran. Now that fight is Militarily WON, with very little danger for them, they complain about the high oil prices they are forced to pay, but don’t want to help open the Strait of Hormuz, a simple military maneuver that is the single reason for the high oil prices. So easy for them to do, with so little risk. COWARDS, and we will REMEMBER! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-20-26 spal
4 months ago, norris was still training and in good shape.
===
You can still blow a fuse or a value ... sounds like he went out like a champ ... that is the most we can hope for. |
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03-20-26 victor
4 months ago, norris was still training and in good shape.
//
November 23, 2025 2:15 pm
Chuck Norris Is 85 and Still in Fighting Shape: Here’s How He Trains
From Total Gym circuits to martial arts in the pool, the action icon proves strength and movement matter more than age.
Chuck Norris is 85 and still training with the mindset of a martial artist, not a retiree. The action legend and multiple black belt holder continues to lift, kick, and climb his way through life, pairing smart strength work with joint friendly conditioning and daily movement.
https://fitnessvolt.com/chuck-norris-still-in-fighting-shape/
|
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03-20-26 victor
| Chuck Norris, martial arts master and actor whose toughness became internet lore, dies at 86 |
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03-20-26 victor
pana, positive? in regards to? the economy? crime? immigration?
the "muslim problem"? CyL? current strikes taking place? etc etc
given that your priority seems to be the "muslim problem", then i would also be highly negative if i were you. |
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03-20-26 spal
A breaking report from Axios just hit, citing senior administration officials who claim the Pentagon has presented a plan to President Trump to seize and "administratively manage" Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal.
The Logic: By physically occupying Kharg, the U.S. aims to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under the threat of a total, indefinite loss of their export revenue.
Market Reaction: This is being read as a major "Boots on the Ground" escalation. Brent has spiked back toward $110/bbl, and the S&P 500 is shedding gains as traders price in a much longer, hotter conflict. |
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03-20-26 panasonic
| Vic, so you are positive? Good to know, my perception was the opposite on my vist (one week ago). |
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03-20-26 spal
Delcy Rodríguez destituye al máximo jefe operativo de la Fuerza Armada venezolana
==
Pragmatic |
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03-20-26 victor
pana, "that sentence seems to be a pessimistic view"
is it?
"Sanchez is having an amazing boost in popularity"
by leftists worldwide, many of whom cannot even vote for him. |
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03-20-26 panasonic
"It's about eliminating these govt handouts, and encouraging people to be productive."
Sorry Vic, but that sentence seems to be a pessimistic view, given (from your own posts) that Sanchez is having an amazing boost in popularity.
My view is consistent with yours, unless you have something in mind that could change current dynamics? |
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03-20-26 hann
| Sorry 3 mile long weapons train |
|
03-20-26 victor
Delcy Rodríguez destituye al máximo jefe operativo de la Fuerza Armada venezolana
Domingo Hernández Lárez, sancionado por Estados Unidos, es sustituido por Rafael Prieto Martínez |
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03-20-26 hann
03-20-26 savo
there is Hegseth asking congress for 200 bn dollars... add it to the 2.1 trn deficit...
-----
friend of friend drove from vegas to LA. Near port area so 3 long weapons train - prob going to mid east.
so seems ground war... |
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03-20-26 hann
Gemini Summary for You
The "5V" news for the 2020s actually helps you indirectly. By keeping CITGO protected and "in the family," the U.S. is ensuring that the most valuable asset isn't stripped away by just one group of creditors. This leaves more value on the table for the general restructuring of your 2026 and 2035 notes.
---
OFFICE OF FOREIGN ASSETS CONTROL Venezuela Sanctions Regulations 31 CFR Part 591 GENERAL LICENSE NO. 5V Authorizing Certain Transactions Related to the Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. 2020 8.5 Percent Bond on or After May 5, 2026 (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this general license, on or after May 5, 2026, all transactions related to, the provision of financing for, and other dealings in the Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. 2020 8.5 Percent Bond that would be prohibited by subsection l(a)(iii) of Executive Order (E.O.) 13835 of May 21, 2018, as amended by E.O. 13857 of January 25, 2019, and incorporated into the Venezuela Sanctions Regulations, 31 CFR part 591 (the VSR), are authorized. (b) This general license does not authorize any transactions or activities otherwise prohibited by the VSR, or any other part of 31 CFR chapter V. (c) Effective March 19, 2026, General License No. 5U, dated February 2, 2026, is replaced and superseded in its entirety by this General License No. 5V. |
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03-20-26 savo
there is Hegseth asking congress for 200 bn dollars... add it to the 2.1 trn deficit...
The little adventure to remove the barbudos was not short and was not cheap...
military contractors delighted...
but the barbudos are still there and the oil market is screwed by this clown who thought he was some kind of Napoleon conquering the middle east.
And where is congress going to get the 200 bn?... more taxes today.. or more inflation tomorrow...
Trump's presidency irreversibly damaged ...
|
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03-20-26 victor
| pana, again, that's your opinion. |
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03-20-26 panasonic
| Vic, even if we have different opinions, from your last post seems we have the same view on Spain's not so bright future. |
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03-20-26 spal
The threat (dirty bomb) is likely technically real but operationally impossible. However, in the logic of the March 2026 Siege, the possibility of a crude device is the only thing keeping U.S. public opinion from turning against a war that has already "set back Iran’s military by years" but failed to produce a replacement government.
===
I would really like to meet the actual propagandist that puts this BS together. This is really tiresome. |
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03-20-26 spal
Combined, many are concerned that these two nuclear issues could result in a small-scale, rushed-out nuclear bomb, which, however small, could have devastating effects.
===
This is really far fetched - of course Israeli intelligence is mostly dealing with dopes and useful idiots.
With 440 kgs of 60% enriched uranium the best you can do is a "dirty bomb" the size of a shipping container. You would need a seriously massive tungsten-carbide or lead tamper. The whole thing would weigh about 20 tons.
So this is NOT going on a missile.
A 60% device is statistically likely to pre-detonate, resulting in a "small" explosion of "only" a few hundred tons of TNT instead of a kiloton.
At 60% enrichment, the "background" neutron radiation from the U-238 is so high that the chain reaction would likely begin before the two uranium halves fully meet. This results in a "pre-detonation" (fizzle).
A 20-tonne shipping container requires a heavy-duty crane, a reinforced flatbed, and a "clear run" through a war zone where the U.S. and Israel have total air superiority (18,000+ strikes).
----
This is a story made up by the Israelis ... I do NOT buy it.
|
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03-20-26 victor
pana, i know, and a country like spain cannot afford to make enemies out of muslims.. not 50 years ago, not today.
most spanish leaders understand this.
one of the few who did not was aznar, when he decided to support bush and blair in the iraq war.
to this day, most people have a negative opinion of anzar, and this is the one thing they remember him for.. for supporting the iraq war.
an example would be algeria, a main supplier of natural gas to spain.
as a result of the current war, they are already in the process of boosting gas exports to spain.
there is a pipeline between both countries. etc. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
| Vic, we can't agree on everything :-)) |
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03-19-26 victor
pana, i don't think spain has a "muslim problem", so i disagree with you.
spain has a "perverse-incentives problem".
some people are encouraged to live off govt subsidies.
so in my op it's not about throwing muslims out of the country.
it's about eliminating these govt handouts, and encouraging people to be productive.. muslims included. |
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03-19-26 victor
if this is true, it's understandable why israel focuses so much on regime change in iran.
//
War could leave Iran with a more radical, nuclear-ambitious regime, IDF sources say
IDF sources say Iran's military power has been 'set back years' in every area • Despite that, military sources unsure if strikes will be enough to get Iranian protesters to topple regime
There are concerns in Israel that the war with Iran could end with an Islamic regime far more radical and nuclear-weapons seeking than that which preceded it, IDF sources said on Thursday.
This, despite all of the substantial progress made so far in the war.
The comment was not a prediction of a likely outcome, but merely a straightforward assessment of the range of potential outcomes at this sensitive stage of the battle.
On the one hand, IDF sources said that much of Iran’s military power in virtually every area has been set back by years.
But on the other hand, the army said, no one knows whether the Israeli strikes – 10,000 and counting – and the American strikes – at least 8,000 – will be sufficient to coax enough Iranian protesters out into the streets to topple the regime.
IDF investing 'extraordinary efforts' to help Iranian protesters
The IDF did say that it has invested extraordinary efforts in helping set the conditions by which anti-regime Iranian protesters could potentially topple Tehran’s leadership.
After the Israel Air Force’s initial attacks focused on top Iranian leaders, air defenses, and ballistic missiles, the attacks quickly shifted to destroying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij, Interior Ministry, and Intelligence Ministry command centers and forces. These bodies are the backbone of the regime’s apparatus for suppressing opposition.
Over the last week, there have even been an increasing number of videos released showing the air force bomb specific, smaller-level checkpoints, which could have been used to keep protesters off a given street.
Yet, after all of these achievements, neither the IDF nor the US has announced any operations to destroy or dilute Iran’s 60% enriched uranium under the rubble at Isfahan or the Pickaxe Mountain (Natanz) facility, which even mega bunker busters cannot penetrate, many fear.
Combined, many are concerned that these two nuclear issues could result in a small-scale, rushed-out nuclear bomb, which, however small, could have devastating effects.
The IDF has declined to provide confidence that these two nuclear threats will be dealt with before the end of the war.
Israeli efforts to weaken regime may have taken on greater urgency
Mojtaba Khamenei, the son and successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader, is viewed as potentially more extreme and radical in his hatred of the West and Israel and readiness to try to use any weapon, including nuclear, to gain leverage or take revenge.
Considering the two above components of Iran’s nuclear program, which are still viable, and Mojtaba as the new leader, there is a nightmare scenario where Iran could have been weakened by years in most areas, including in many areas of its nuclear program, while still managing to wield and use an ace-in-the-hole small-scale nuclear weapon.
In that sense, the IDF’s and the US’s efforts to continue to weaken the regime with the hope that it will be toppled may have taken on a greater urgency.
|
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03-19-26 leopardo
|
03-19-26 leopardo
ECB Sees Inflation Peaking at 6.3% in 2027 Under Severe
Scenario
|
|
03-19-26 pillz
Ed Yardeni sees risk to his bullish gold target as prices lag expectations
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/ed-yardeni-sees-risk-to-his-bullish-gold-target-as-prices-lag-expectations-4571434 |
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03-19-26 spal
| Again last post could be propaganda. |
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03-19-26 spal
| Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has release a statement, accompanied by video footage, which claims to show the targeting of an American F-35A/B Lightning ll with a surface-to-air missile in the skies over Iran. This claim by the IRGC follows reports that a F-35 was damaged and forced to make an “emergency landing” at an air base in the Middle East due to hostile fire over Iran. |
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03-19-26 spal
| Last post is obviously conjecture and not mine. |
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03-19-26 spal
| Brilliant move by Iran. They are planning to levy a 10% toll on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This will generate $73 billion a year, completely offsetting US sanctions and paying for war damages. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
| Vic, true and they adapt on arrival. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
Vic, yep discussion was sent to the origin of the problem (your post) so now, tdy, how would you solve it.
Maybe too late?
|
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03-19-26 victor
pana, also, in all fairness, the system in spain favors latam immigrants, not muslim immigrants.
takes less time for latams to normalize their illegal status than others. |
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03-19-26 spal
VET
VERMILION ENERGY INC
Add to Watchlist
14.61 (+15.90%)
|
|
03-19-26 victor
pana, what filtering?? many muslims in spain happen to be spanish.
look at the stats. :-))
the right-wing does a lot of populism on this topic:
-exaggerating the # of muslims
-pretending they can be easily expelled, when many cannot
https://www.statista.com/statistics/989902/muslims-in-spain-by-nationality/ |
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03-19-26 panasonic
| Vic, filtering requires unpleasant measures, and that is my biggest criticism to the so called "socialism", bcz they have manipulated for decades that putting nation interests at the top is fascism. |
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03-19-26 victor
pana, interesting how immigrants have lowered the avg age of people in madrid and cat.
on the other hand, some rural areas in castilla, asturias or galicia have an average age of ~60 !! |
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03-19-26 spal
having muslims that are not extremists.. most are not, in my experience.
===
Nope - we have muslim countries for that. |
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03-19-26 victor
pana, today.. ABC. look at the map.
//
El mapa de la España envejecida: más de la mitad de municipios son cincuentones
La media de edad de la población es de 44,55 años, cinco por encima de lo que lo era en el 2000, cuando todavía éramos treintañeros
https://www.abc.es/sociedad/mapa-espana-envejecida-mitad-municipios-cincuentones-20260319202623-nt.html
|
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03-19-26 victor
| pana, seriously, the solution in my op involves having muslims that are not extremists.. most are not, in my experience. |
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03-19-26 victor
| or "you can have pets only after having X kids" :-)) |
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03-19-26 victor
pana, spal, maybe the solution would be to prohibit having dogs or any other pet? :-))
|
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03-19-26 spal
show a white flag and let them take over
===
If it was up to me ... no f***ing way ... |
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03-19-26 spal
As of March 19, 2026, Flex LNG Ltd. (FLNG) is in a powerhouse position, directly benefiting from the "Strait of Hormuz" supply shock that has removed 20% of global LNG capacity. While the company maintains a conservative, long-term contract profile, its strategic value has been massively re-rated as the market scrambles for secure, "Western-controlled" shipping.
1. The Position: High-Quality "Bridge" Infrastructure
Flex LNG operates a fleet of 13 state-of-the-art MEGI and X-DF LNG carriers. Unlike older steam-turbine vessels, FLNG’s fleet is among the most fuel-efficient in the world, making them the first choice for charterers facing record-high fuel costs and redirected long-haul routes.
Backlog Stability: As of yesterday (March 18, 2026), FLNG announced that a supermajor exercised extensions for the Flex Resolute and Flex Courageous, securing them until 2032.
Massive Backlog: The company now boasts a firm contract backlog of 53 years, potentially rising to 74 years if all options are exercised. This provides "fortress" revenue visibility while competitors face the chaos of the spot market.
The "Asian Utility" Win: The Flex Constellation just commenced a 15-year time charter with a major Asian utility. This is a critical win, as Asian buyers are the most desperate for non-Qatari supply right now.
2. How Positive is the Benefit?
The benefit is extremely positive, but it manifests in two different ways:
The Spot Market Upside: While most of the fleet is locked in, FLNG has three open vessels currently trading in the spot market. LNG shipping rates have reportedly surged as much as 600% this month due to the "Hormuz Risk." These three ships are essentially "printing cash" as they facilitate the emergency redirection of Atlantic Basin cargoes toward Asia.
Charterer Dependency: The "Siege of Dubai" and the Qatari force majeure have made LNG carriers more valuable than the gas itself in some cases. Charterers are extending contracts early (as seen with Flex Resolute) to ensure they aren't left without ships if the conflict widens. This gives FLNG immense bargaining power for future renewals.
3. Market Performance (The "52-Week High")
The market's assessment of FLNG’s position is clear:
Share Price Surge: The stock hit a 52-week high of $31.67 today (March 19, 2026), up over 11% in a single trading session.
Dividend Yield: Even with the price surge, the company maintains a significant dividend yield (approx. 9.5% to 9.9%), making it a rare "Growth + Income" play during a period of global stagflation.
The Assessment
FLNG is the "Toll Booth" of the new energy reality. It is maximally positive because it offers the perfect hedge: it has the long-term contracts to survive a recession, but enough spot exposure to thrive in a supply-crunch explosion. As long as the Middle East remains a "contested pond," FLNG’s modern, efficient fleet is the world's most valuable logistics asset. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
| Spal, USA (and China as well), robots. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
Vic, agree on demographic crisis, that is right, so now what, show a white flag and let them take over or adopt unpopular measures to deal with it?
I would go for what serves better for Spain's future, but majority rules. |
|
03-19-26 spal
VET
VERMILION ENERGY INC
14.411.80 (+14.27%)
===
This is 2.5 hours of the market assessment of Europe's energy prob.
|
|
03-19-26 spal
you are not really providing a workable solution to the low birth rate of locals.
===
If the choice is Muslims or robots ... I am going turning Japanese.
;) |
|
03-19-26 spal
BTU
Peabody Energy Corp. - Ordinary Shares New
$39.30
(+8.38%)
Whitehaven supposedly better positioned - I'll see what happens when the Oz market opens. At the moment I am setting the price on the OTC.
|
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03-19-26 victor
pana, if we go back in time some decades.. there were plenty of warnings of what could/would happen to a society with a low birth rate.
at first people didn't pay any attention to it.. they even thought it was a joke.
eventually a govt like the current one in Spain, realized that it was an untenable situation.. and that the economy needs an influx of young people to reverse the trend..
and to keep the economy growing and paying taxes, you need young folk, even if immigrant.. not a bunch of local geriatrics.
..which in turn inflames locals, feeling rightfully displaced by immigrants, and gives rise to right-wing anti-immigrant populists like VOX (or DT for that matter).
it's easy to be calling out muslims in Europe, as you are at present..
however, you are not really providing a workable solution to the low birth rate of locals, which is at the heart of the problem.
locals want dogs, as somebody said.
they want dogs to be their kids.. inherit dogs, etc.
same happens with locals in the usa. |
|
03-19-26 spal
WHITF
WHITEHAVEN COAL LTD,
... if thermal coal follows ... which is likely now |
|
03-19-26 spal
Global LNG glut starting in 2027 because of Qatar was the speed bump bear risk we wrote about last year.
===
I guess problem solved. |
|
03-19-26 spal
VET
VERMILION ENERGY INC
14.14 (+12.13%)
|
|
03-19-26 spal
EU won't need gasoline, in few years they will ride camels and "la Maja Desnuda" will wear burka :-(
===
Best of the Day!
|
|
03-19-26 panasonic
|
03-19-26 panasonic
| Vic, can you elaborate a bit more pls. |
|
03-19-26 spal
QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: TWO OUT OF 14 OF OUR LNG TRAINS AND ONE OUT OF TWO OF OUR GAS-TO-LIQUIDS (GTL) FACILITY WERE DAMAGED IN THE ATTACKS
WE WILL BE LOSING 12.8 MILLION TONS PER YEAR OF LNG FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS, AROUND 17% OF QATAR’S EXPORT LNG
WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA |
|
03-19-26 panasonic
| EU won't need gasoline, in few years they will ride camels and "la Maja Desnuda" will wear burka :-( |
|
03-19-26 victor
| pana, i think this issue is more complex than your description.. with no easy solution. |
|
03-19-26 panasonic
|
03-19-26 panasonic
| Tks Spal, only bought $Next calls, hopefully as soon as we get good news from war all these names will drop overnight, not a place to be without a stop. |
|
03-19-26 spal
| Iran appears to have scored a successful hit in the vicinity of Israel's Haifa oil refinery moments ago. |
|
03-19-26 spal
| Adding coal (will benefit from the disruptions ... Europe will burn anything that moves now) |
|
03-19-26 spal
As of Thursday, March 19, 2026, PBF Energy (PBF) is in the middle of a massive tactical "heavy-oil pivot," and the move into Venezuelan crude is the centerpiece of its current windfall. You are correct about the tankers—market data from late February confirms that PBF, alongside Chevron and Valero, has chartered dozens of Aframax and Panamax vessels under exclusive time-charter arrangements to move Venezuelan crude to the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts.
Here is the assessment of PBF’s current "V-Curve" trajectory.
1. The Pivot: "Heavy Sour" is the New Gold
PBF is fundamentally a "complex" refiner. While "simple" refineries struggle with heavy, "ugly" oil, PBF was built to eat it.
* The Venezuelan Tailwind: CEO Matthew Lucey recently confirmed that PBF can run up to 60% of its total system on heavy sour crude. With the January 2026 lifting of sanctions and the removal of the Maduro regime, PBF has jumped on the opportunity to replace expensive Canadian or Middle Eastern barrels with discounted Venezuelan Merey and Boscan grades.
* The Logistics: By chartering their own "exclusive" fleet, PBF is bypassing the "Dark Fleet" chaos and securing a dedicated pipeline of feedstock that is currently trading at a $10–$15 discount to Brent.
2. How Global Turmoil Materially Benefits PBF
The current conflict with Iran is a "perfect storm" for PBF’s bottom line:
* The Distillate Squeeze: The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Middle Eastern refineries (like Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura) have paralyzed the world’s diesel and jet fuel supply.
* Windfall Margins: Because PBF is a "pure-play" refiner with zero "upstream" (drilling) exposure, it captures 100% of the surge in crack spreads. Diesel crack spreads have hit record highs, pushing PBF’s stock up ~51% year-to-date.
* The "Martinez" Catalyst: The Martinez (California) refinery restart this month (March 2026) removes a multi-year operational overhang, allowing PBF to capture high West Coast margins just as regional supply hits a critical low.
3. What Needs to Happen & What Must Be Sustained
For this "windfall" to transition from a spike to a structural re-rating, three things are required:
* Sustained Heavy-Light Differentials: PBF wins when heavy crude (Venezuela) stays cheap and light crude (WTI) stays relatively expensive. If OPEC+ floods the market with heavy oil, PBF’s margins expand.
* Middle Distillate Scarcity: Global inventories of diesel and jet fuel must remain low. If the Iran conflict de-escalates and Middle Eastern refineries come back online quickly, the "crack" will collapse.
* Operational Execution: PBF has a heavy maintenance ("turnaround") schedule for late 2026 at its Paulsboro and Chalmette facilities. To maintain the rally, these must be executed without the "Martinez-style" delays of the past.
4. The Current Direction: "De-leveraged and Lethal"
PBF has used the 2022–2026 bull market to aggressively de-leverage. Its current direction is:
* Asset Optimization: Focusing on "reliability-based initiatives" to save $350 million annually.
* The "Green" Hedge: Utilizing its St. Bernard Renewables (SBR) partnership to offset high RIN (Renewable Identification Number) costs, which historically crippled its East Coast operations.
Strategic Bottom Line
PBF is currently the "High-Beta King" of the energy sector. It is effectively a levered bet on the continuation of the "global energy siege." If the US imposes the crude export restrictions discussed earlier, PBF actually *benefits* further: it would allow them to buy "trapped" domestic light crude at a massive discount to blend with their Venezuelan heavy barrels, while selling refined products at global prices.
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03-19-26 spal
| Panas - careful it is very likely extended at the moment. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
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03-19-26 spal
MU traded using 2x etf MUU, day tradevof course.
===
Well done |
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03-19-26 spal
Vermilion Energy (VET) is widely considered the most direct public equity "play" on European natural gas (TTF) prices. While it is a North American-based producer, its strategic differentiation lies in its diversified international portfolio, specifically its high-margin assets in Ireland, Germany, and the Netherlands.
The Mechanics of the Play
Unlike most Canadian or U.S. peers who are price-takers at domestic hubs (AECO or Henry Hub), VET sells approximately 25% to 30% of its total production directly into the European market at TTF-linked pricing. Because European gas historically trades at a massive premium to North American gas—often 5x to 10x higher—this small portion of volume generates a disproportionate share of the company’s Free Cash Flow (FCF).
Why It Is Moving Now
1. Direct Exposure: VET maintains a high percentage of "unhedged" European production, meaning it captures nearly 100% of the upside during price spikes caused by the Qatar/North Field impairments.
2. The "Corrib" Factor: Its 56.5% stake in Ireland’s Corrib field provides a stable, "in-pipe" supply that bypasses the logistical risks of the current maritime "siege" in the Gulf.
3. Financial Leverage: In a high-TTF environment (currently over €55/MWh), VET’s debt-to-equity ratio compresses rapidly, allowing for aggressive share buybacks.
For investors, VET is the primary vehicle to gain European "energy security" exposure without the complexities of direct commodity trading.
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03-19-26 panasonic
| MU traded using 2x etf MUU, day tradevof course. |
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03-19-26 spal
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03-19-26 spal
NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) is a Houston-based energy firm developing the Rio Grande LNG export facility in Texas. It distinguishes itself by integrating carbon capture and storage (CCS) to produce the world’s "cleanest" LNG, targeting ESG-conscious European markets.
Recent Progress & Approval
On March 13, 2026, the FERC approved Trains 4 and 5, a massive milestone. This approval greenlights expansion to 27 MTPA (million tonnes per annum), essentially de-risking the company’s long-term growth trajectory. It signals that the regulatory path is clear for NEXT to become one of the largest LNG exporters in North America.
Significance & Share Price Surge
The stock is climbing rapidly due to a "perfect storm" of catalysts:
* The Qatar Gap: Following the March 18 strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan, 20% of global LNG is impaired. NEXT is the primary "Safe Haven" beneficiary for investors fleeing Middle Eastern energy risk.
* Earnings Beat: A strong Q4 report showed construction on Phase 1 is over 60% complete, with first gas on track for H1 2027.
* Geopolitical Hedge: As European gas (TTF) prices spike, NEXT’s 20-year offtake agreements with giants like Shell and TotalEnergies have seen a massive valuation re-rating.
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03-19-26 spal
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03-19-26 spal
| PBF ... US refiner ... pivoting to heavy Vene crude ... chartered tankers to start hauling in the oil. |
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03-19-26 spal
| MU ... bough the dip today ... earnings were insane |
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03-19-26 spal
ALVOF
Micro cap Brazil gas co ... walking up
Have a heavy position ... do not chase |
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03-19-26 spal
EC ... added
Completely insulated O&G play ... (except for Petro ... who is a dead man walking) |
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03-19-26 spal
NEXT ... went bananas ... don't chase.
Might add on dips.
US LNG |
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03-19-26 spal
VET ... pure play on gas prices in Europe
Adding |
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03-19-26 spal
| Copper also ... probably a buyer of copper schtocks today |
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03-19-26 spal
| Gold just fell out of bed |
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03-19-26 spal
I´ll keep posting translations that I think might interest colores.
===
Gracias amigo |
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03-19-26 Merlino
| Ruspan, good article/s. Thanks |
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03-19-26 panasonic
Ruspan, good read keep posting pls.
US fertilizer companies are flying btw. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
Vic, great news for Sanchez, not so for Spain, with €200 monthly per child he will become even more popular, who ends with the final bill, Germany?
How long till Koran lessons are mandatory in schools 10 years? 20? |
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03-19-26 ruspan
I´ll keep posting translations that I think might interest colores.
How will the world be affected by a war in the Middle East?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not only a blockade of oil and gas supplies; transit of virtually all merchant vessels, including container ships and bulk carriers, has now been disrupted.
Losses are significantly higher than previously estimated.
Upward price momentum is observed in many industrial metals, particularly aluminum, which reached its highest level since spring 2022.
▪️ Aluminum and Metallurgy. The region has become one of the largest aluminum producers in the world outside of China, using cheap gas for electrolysis:
• UAE (Emirates Global Aluminum/EGA) – 2.7 million tonnes/year, the 5th largest producer in the world and the largest outside of China.
• Bahrain (Alba) – 1.6 million tonnes/year, one of the world's largest aluminum smelters.
• Saudi Arabia (Maaden/Ras Al Khair) – 0.8–1 million tons/year.
• Qatar (Qatalum) – 0.6 million tons/year.
• Oman (Sohar Aluminum) – 0.4 million tons/year.
A total of approximately 5.5–6.5 million tons/year – 8–10% of global aluminum production. All of this volume is exported by sea, the vast majority through the Strait of Hormuz.
▪️Petrochemicals and Polymers. The Middle East is the largest net exporter of basic petrochemical products:
Total petrochemical exports from the region are estimated at ~$80–100 billion/year, which does NOT include petroleum products. Products include:
• Ethylene and polyethylene – packaging, pipes, films, medical devices.
• Polypropylene – automotive components, textiles, packaging.
• Ethylene glycol (MEG) – polyester production (textiles, PET bottles). Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter, accounting for ~30% of global MEG trade.
• Methanol – solvents, formaldehyde, fuel additives.
• Paraxylene – feedstock for polyester.
▪️Mineral fertilizers with significant fertilizer exports based on cheap gas:
• Urea (carbamide) – Qatar (~6 million tons/year), Saudi Arabia (SAFCO/Ma'aden, ~4–5 million tons/year), Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait. Together, the region exports ~15–20% of global urea trade.
• Ammonia – a key component in the production of all nitrogen fertilizers. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are major exporters.
• Phosphate Fertilizers – Saudi Arabia (Maaden/Waad Al Shamal) is increasing exports of phosphates and DAP.
▪️Electronic Components and Critical Materials.
🔘Helium – a critical component for lithography, growing silicon crystals for chips, cooling superconducting magnets, ion implantation, MRI scanners, quantum computers, and everything related to high-precision electronics.
Qatar produces helium at complexes integrated with Qatargas/RasGas LNG plants. Capacity is 65 million cubic meters. Actual production is ~45–55 million cubic meters per year, or almost a third of global production. All exports are shipped by sea through the Strait of Hormuz in liquid form (ISO containers, specialized tankers).
🔘Ultra-high-purity aluminum for special alloys in microelectronics (microwire for connecting chips to housings, metallization of conductive tracks on semiconductor wafers, etc.) and electrical engineering (high-quality capacitors, heat sinks for electronics).
Exact data is not published, but it likely accounts for 15-17% of the global share.
🔘Ethylene glycol (MEG) is a critical element in antifreeze for data center cooling, printed circuit board substrates, cable insulation, and polyester capacitors. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter of MEG. SABIC and its subsidiaries (SHARQ, Yanpet, SAFCO) produce ~5-6 million tons of MEG per year, exporting ~70-80% primarily to Asia.
Global MEG production is approximately 35 million tons per year, with Saudi Arabian exports accounting for approximately 15-17% of global trade.
🔘The world is heavily dependent on high-quality quartz sand for silicon wafers (chips) and solar panels, where the region is the world's largest exporter. The region also exports methanol (6-8% of global trade), high-quality polypropylene (8-10% of the global market), sulfur (20-25% of global trade), paraxylene (5-7% of trade) for microelectronics and electrical engineering, and titanium dioxide (6-7% of trade).
So, there are challenges: metallurgical products, agricultural raw materials, petrochemicals, critical materials, and raw materials for the semiconductor industry. |
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03-19-26 victor
sanchez made a video of his fan mail.
has been receiving fan mail from all over the world.
//
BREAKING : Spanish 🇪🇸 PM Pedro Sánchez refused to bow down in front of Trump's warning
"My stand is clear, i can't support war and i am with people of Gaza & Iran. I am getting letters from across the world praising the stand of Spain" 🔥
He goes on to showing messages he got from the US and European countries. The world is recognizing his leadership. BRAVO 🫡
https://x.com/Amockx2022/status/2034390321275277546
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03-19-26 victor
POLITICO
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s condemnation of the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran initially made him an outlier in Europe. Now everyone wants in.
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-takes-victory-lap-as-rest-of-the-eu-coalesces-around-pedro-sanchez-anti-war-position/
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03-19-26 pillz
| https://www.investing.com/currencies/xau-usd |
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03-19-26 pillz
Gold prices rise but still pinned below $4,900/oz amid inflation, Iran uncertainty
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-rise-but-still-pinned-below-4900oz-amid-inflation-iran-uncertainty-4569720 |
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03-19-26 pillz
| https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures |
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03-19-26 victor
| Israel, out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lashed out at a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran. A relatively small section of the whole has been hit. The United States knew nothing about this particular attack, and the country of Qatar was in no way, shape, or form, involved with it, nor did it have any idea that it was going to happen. Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility. NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar - In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before. I do not want to authorize this level of violence and destruction because of the long term implications that it will have on the future of Iran, but if Qatar’s LNG is again attacked, I will not hesitate to do so. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-19-26 spal
EU at higher risk than USA
==
EU in deep shit. |
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03-19-26 spal
The "Shared Reservoir" Suicide Pact
The most terrifying aspect for energy geologists is the Reservoir Integrity Risk.
Pressure Imbalances: The North Field and South Pars draw from the same geological pool. Violent, unplanned shutdowns on both sides simultaneously can cause pressure shocks within the reservoir, potentially damaging the wells themselves or leading to water infiltration that could permanently reduce the field's recoverable reserves.
Retaliation Loop: Iran has vowed to "completely destroy" Gulf energy infrastructure if further strikes hit South Pars. This is a scorched-earth energy policy where neither side is allowed to produce if the other is impaired.
Big, big problem in North Field/ South Pars ... |
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03-19-26 savo
pana.. all europe has to do is U-turn with Russia as DT U-turned with Veni...and Russian oil and gas can restart flowing to Europe.
I am sure Carib can remind us of some Machiavelli quote about pragmatism...in Latin!
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03-19-26 pillz
cooooll
//
Artificial intelligence drone software maker Swarmer Inc. surged 1,000% in two days, making it the best debut for a US stock in nearly a year. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
Spal, 100% but as posted here NM had to be extracted as previous step before going after barbudos.
DT clearly said tdy, Hormuz puts EU at higher risk than USA, so they better act, but we need to understand that EU can't afford to piss islamists, huge mess. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
Savo, that's my read as well, lower prices buys more stuff we intend to keep.
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03-19-26 savo
| spal.. i imagine conversations are already underway... and close before an MCM/Haussman government. |
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03-19-26 savo
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03-19-26 savo
pana .. i am a continues buyer of precious metals with every coupon i received minus living expenses.
The more the market misreads gold and silver... the better. |
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03-19-26 spal
| know ... should be now ... |
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03-19-26 spal
| I think "ironically" maybe but the current Iran situation clearly helps further turn Vene around. I think now (an I was doubtful before) that a more favorable restructuring is coming. I know do not think that the US can risk pissing off at all potential follow-on investors. |
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03-19-26 spal
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03-19-26 panasonic
Savo, lower prices are good news, you can buy more kilos of gold ;-)
Tdy bought back SLV that sold at 100$, paid less than 70$. |
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03-19-26 savo
pillz... gold at 4810$
because powell did not cut rates???
that means a higher interest bill for the US and a more costly refinancing of the existing debt... hence higher fiscal deficit... add that to an economy at war and gdp growing at Q4 25 1.4% annualized rate and that is very very good for gold...
let algos, CTAs and the cohort of ignorant day traders have their day... our day is coming too and it will be great. |
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03-19-26 savo
and why would a veni firing on all cylinders trade at 11% exit???
think more 6 to 7%. |
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03-19-26 panasonic
"Los de PDVSA también podrían subir hasta unos 50 centavos"
Exactly colores estimate one day after NM was extracted. |
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