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03-12-26 spaldo
Ruspan, as much as we appreciate your hang gliding hobby: you were missed here. No news from Primo and Opti.
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03-12-26 ruspan
(translated from russian analist)
Will strategic oil reserves save the world from an energy crisis?
No, they won't.
On March 11, the IEA decided to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of oil from member countries' strategic/emergency reserves, the largest oil market intervention in history.
The scale of the problem cannot be understood without context. The supply gap will be approximately 15-16 million barrels per day, as up to 3 million barrels per day will be able to be released overland through the pipeline in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and another 1-2 million barrels per day will pass through the strait, primarily for China, plus some "suicide" countries at their own risk.
Therefore, the 20 million barrels per day of outgoing oil and petroleum product flows (approximately 20% of global supply/demand) will likely adjust to 15-16 million barrels per day in the coming weeks, which would be a realistic estimate, and that's over 450 million barrels per month.
Considering that a gap of approximately 200 million barrels has already accumulated over the 12 days of conflict, while the decision to "intervene on an unprecedented 400 million barrels" was being considered, half of which has already been absorbed.
The remaining 200 million represents another couple of weeks of market stabilization until the end of March, so by early April the question will arise: where to find another 400-450 million for April, and then another 450 million for May? And then what?
There is no solution other than stopping the war in the Middle East or militarily lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Even this objective cannot be effective without a ground operation, and a ground operation is out of the question in the current configuration.
Many focus on the Strait of Hormuz, forgetting that Iran has approximately 1,700 km of coastal area, every kilometer of which could potentially pose a threat.
The Strait of Hormuz merely narrows the attack surface to 50-60 km, but there is an entrance and exit point, which also pose a danger to shipping. There are also loading terminals in Middle Eastern countries, which are approximately 150-250 km away from Iran's coastal zone, which is practically nothing for modern attack drones.
Can you name at least one reason why Iran won't be able to destroy loading ports in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE? We shouldn't focus on the Strait of Hormuz. The entire Persian Gulf is no longer a safe place where targets such as ports, terminals, oil and gas storage facilities, LNG plants, and production and pipeline infrastructure can be hit.
All of these are large and stationary targets, making them easily susceptible to attack by drones and missiles. Even if nine were intercepted, a 10th drone could disable critical energy infrastructure for months or years.
Let's assume that somehow (it's unclear how, but let's assume) US aircraft and the Navy managed to take control of the Strait of Hormuz itself – this doesn't eliminate the threat to the region; in fact, it increases it.
While the missile and launcher situation in Iran is indeed complicated, drones are manufactured and launched in makeshift conditions, and can be delivered via the Caspian Sea from Russia or via Pakistan via the continuous Chinese Eastern Express.
The density of energy infrastructure in the Middle East is so high, and the distance so small (within 150-350 km), that permanent threats from Iran can be effective, changing the strategic profile of the conflict.
That's precisely why 400 million interventions solve nothing. They decide within the paradigm that everything will be over by the end of March, but for now I doubt Trump will wake up and say, "We had a great fight, a wonderful 2-3 week excursion to Iran, we killed everyone and destroyed everything, all the goals of the special Iranian operation were achieved, thank you all, and everyone is free to go. Thanks for your attention to this matter, DJT."
Iran won't let him escape, knowing Trump's weaknesses and the limited operational window, where every week counts heavily against him.
Yes, Trump has been eager to spew out a tweet like that from the very first day, but so far, the old Khamenei has been replaced by a younger Khamenei, and Iran has become significantly angrier, albeit with a devastated military-industrial complex. This doesn't remove the threat from the Persian Gulf. |
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03-12-26 ruspan
Amateur: Russia produces up to 5000 Geran (shajeed) drones per month actually, may supply the to Iran.
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03-12-26 spal
Iran has set some tough conditions to agree a ceasefire — these now include “reparations” and “firm international guarantees” that it won’t be attacked again.
In the ordinary course of negotiations, maximalist demands at the outset are expected, as some are given up or diluted as bargaining chips through the process. |
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03-12-26 spal
The Kobeissi Letter
@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: New US intelligence says Iran's leadership is still "largely intact" and not at risk of collapse "any time soon," per Reuters.
Details include:
1. A "multitude" of intelligence reports provide "consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger" of collapse
2. Intelligence also suggests that the Iranian government "retains control of the Iranian public"
3. Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is "no certainty" the war will lead to the Iranian government's collapse
4. The situation on the ground is being described as "fluid"
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03-12-26 spal
| Casualties: While the Iron Dome and Arrow systems intercepted the majority of the tonnage, the sheer volume caused "saturation." In the last 24 hours, Israeli health authorities reported 2 deaths and approximately 200 injuries in the Tel Aviv area alone. |
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03-12-26 spal
The sense of panic in Tel Aviv is real, driven by a change in Iranian tactics.
The "Skyline Ban": You are correct about the censorship. The IDF has strictly banned live broadcasts of the Tel Aviv skyline during sirens. This is to prevent Iran from using live news feeds for real-time BDA (Battle Damage Assessment) to adjust their missile GPS coordinates.
Sub-Munition Terror: The use of cluster warheads has shifted the "panic" from direct hits to "shrapnel rain." Residents in Tel Aviv are being told to stay in shelters even after interceptions because the sub-munitions from cluster bombs can drift and explode minutes later. |
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03-12-26 spal
| Iran has demonstrated a solid unmanned surface vessel capability, one that is proving to be very effective against commercial shipping in the Gulf, from the great HI Sutton: https://hisutton.com/IRGC-USV.html |
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03-12-26 spal
who told him that these iranian guys would react like delcy, after killing K?
===
Yes, but very different countries, circumstances, history and terrain.
The fact that he would need to be told that things might be different strikes me as inadequate. |
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03-12-26 spal
Over the last 36 hours, Iranian forces have carried out 5 likely successful attacks on commercial vessels across the Persian Gulf.
At least 3 vessels have been heavily damaged, with another 3 suffering minor damage. Notably, some of the attacks were carried out by drone boats. |
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03-12-26 victor
spal, dt?
interesting perspective.
he's better than i assumed.
he went after NM, and he's going after castro in cuba. he should be commended.
he's trying to go after iran and hezbollah. also commended.
the problem is how he approaches stuff, and the assumptions he makes.
who told him that these iranian guys would react like delcy, after killing K? |
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03-12-26 spal
| Vic - you would know Sanchez better - personally I was not really following, but I am glad you are and it looks like he is getting attention in Europe. |
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03-12-26 spal
| It's not ... I was referring to Trump - who is clearly not as tough as he think he is and that makes him cruel and spiteful IMO. |
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03-12-26 victor
spal, dt threatened sanchez/spain yet again today.
regardless, sanchez won't budge. |
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03-12-26 victor
spal, I also don't like people who are not really hard, trying to act hard
//
how is this applicable to sanchez?
if anything, it's the other way around..
he acts very softly, but is no softie. |
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03-12-26 spal
so sanchez isn't the bad guy any longer?
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I don't think I said he was a bad guy. I also don't like people who are not really hard, trying to act hard. It leads to ugly things. |
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03-12-26 spal
Vic - as of this week (March 11, 2026), there are strong indications that the MOP is being used again to strike "Hard and Deeply Buried Targets" (HDBTs).
Parchin Military Complex: Satellite imagery released today (March 11) by Vantor shows three massive, precise impact points at the Taleghan 2 facility in Parchin. Analysts suggest these are "broadly consistent" with MOP strikes seen at Fordow last year.
Qom & Missile Silos: While the White House has officially confirmed the use of 2,000-lb bunker busters (GBU-31/72) against missile facilities, independent analysts believe the "massive" explosions reported in the Qom region involve the GBU-57, given the depth of the IRGC command bunkers located there.
Best I can do. |
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03-12-26 victor
spal, When the US agrees to reparations and muzzles Israel.
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so sanchez isn't the bad guy any longer? |
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03-12-26 victor
spal, was this confirmed? i can't find it on the regular news channels
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MASSIVE NON-NUCLEAR EXPLOSION IN QOM, IRAN JUST NOW |
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03-12-26 savo
«Estados Unidos reconoce a Delcy Rodríguez como la única jefa de Estado, capaz de actuar en nombre de Venezuela».
yet the new president of Chile invited Guaido!!!
can somebody be more stupid??? |
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03-12-26 savo
Golpe mortal al interinato: Estados Unidos reconoce a Delcy Rodríguez como jefa de Estado ante tribunales y le otorga la representación legal de Venezuela
La comunicación fue presentada por el Departamento de Justicia en respuesta a una solicitud de la corte federal, dentro de procedimientos relacionados con litigios que involucran bienes de la República en Estados Unidos
Venezuela confirma restablecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas con Estados Unidos.
El gobierno de Estados Unidos notificó a la Corte del Distrito Sur de Nueva York que reconoce a Delcy Rodríguez como presidenta interina y jefa de Estado de Venezuela, en una decisión que redefine la representación legal del país en los tribunales estadounidenses y tiene implicaciones directas sobre la defensa de sus activos en el exterior.
La comunicación fue presentada por el Departamento de Justicia en respuesta a una solicitud de la corte federal, dentro de procedimientos relacionados con litigios que involucran bienes de la República en Estados Unidos. Con esta notificación, Washington establece que la administración encabezada por Rodríguez será la instancia con capacidad de representar legalmente al Estado venezolano ante los tribunales estadounidenses.
El documento fue firmado por Michael G. Kozak, alto funcionario de la Oficina de Asuntos del Hemisferio Occidental del Departamento de Estado, y remitido al fiscal Jay Clayton. En él se informa que la posición oficial del gobierno estadounidense es reconocer a Rodríguez como la autoridad estatal competente para actuar en nombre de Venezuela.
El reconocimiento se produce en un giro diplomático de la administración de Donald Trump, que en los últimos días anunció el restablecimiento de relaciones con Caracas. En un discurso el 7 de marzo, el presidente de Estados Unidos afirmó: “Esta semana hemos reconocido formalmente al gobierno venezolano… De hecho, lo hemos reconocido legalmente”.
Según la posición del Departamento de Estado, la normalización de relaciones con Venezuela busca facilitar la recuperación económica del país y un proceso gradual hacia elecciones democráticas.
En el plano judicial, la decisión implica que la representación legal del Estado venezolano en litigios en Estados Unidos pasará a manos de abogados designados por la administración de Delcy Rodríguez, lo cual modifica el esquema vigente desde 2019, cuando Washington reconocía a la Asamblea Nacional de 2015 como autoridad política legítima.
El cambio también se produce en un contexto político marcado por la captura de Nicolás Maduro en enero de 2026 durante una operación militar estadounidense y su posterior traslado a Nueva York para enfrentar cargos federales relacionados con narcotráfico.
Tras ese hecho, el Tribunal Supremo de Venezuela designó a Delcy Rodríguez presidenta interina, con el argumento de garantizar la continuidad institucional del Estado.
El reconocimiento formal por Estados Unidos consolida un cambio en la relación bilateral, que incluye el restablecimiento de contactos diplomáticos y agenda centrada en cooperación energética, minera y de seguridad.
La notificación a la corte federal marca así un nuevo escenario político y jurídico para Venezuela, al definir quién representa al país ante los tribunales estadounidenses en los procesos relacionados con sus activos y obligaciones internacionales.
https://x.com/ahernandezof/status/2031833489381761522 |
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03-12-26 spal
| Sorry Pilly and anyone strongly affiliated with Israel ... personally I have the greatest love for the people there. |
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03-12-26 spal
| When the US agrees to reparations and muzzles Israel. |
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03-12-26 savo
| when will all this destruction end?? |
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03-11-26 spal
| Iraqi channels are now reporting that “multiple tankers” are burning in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Basra, following a coordinated attack by Iran. |
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03-11-26 spal
MASSIVE NON-NUCLEAR EXPLOSION IN QOM, IRAN JUST NOW
Qom is Iran's clerical capital
Lots of speculation that the USA has used its 30,000lb GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP)
which has RARELY been used, and can penetrate 200 feet into the earth.
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“They were careless people, Tom and Daisy- they smashed up things and creatures and then retreated back into their money or their vast carelessness or whatever it was that kept them together, and let other people clean up the mess they had made.”
― F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby |
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03-11-26 victor
Three days after Mojtaba Khamenei was proclaimed to have succeeded his slain father as Iran’s supreme leader, he has not appeared on video or in public nor issued any written statements.
One reason is concern that any communication could reveal his location and put him in danger, according to three Iranian officials speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject in Iran.
But another factor is that Mr. Khamenei, 56, was injured on the opening day of the attack by Israel and the United States, they said.
The three Iranian officials said they were told by more senior figures in the government over the past two days that Mr. Khamenei had suffered injuries, including to his legs, but that he was alert and sheltering at a highly secure location with limited communication.
Two Israeli military officials said information gathered by Israel had also led the defense establishment to believe that Mr. Khamenei suffered leg injuries on Feb. 28, a conclusion they reached even before he was selected as the new supreme leader on Sunday. The Israeli officials spoke on condition of anonymity.
The full circumstances and extent of Mr. Khamenei’s injuries were unclear. |
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03-11-26 spal
Gemini said
The reports from the flight-tracking community, including MonkeyWerx, regarding the deployment of "nuke sniffers" in the Iranian theater are verified by multi-source OSINT.
The specific aircraft in question is the WC-135R Constant Phoenix, a highly specialized platform that has been tracked moving from its home base at Offutt AFB (Nebraska) to the CENTCOM Area of Responsibility (AOR) via RAF Mildenhall (UK) and Al Udeid (Qatar) as Operation Epic Fury escalated in late February and early March 2026.
What are "Nuke Sniffers"?
The WC-135R Constant Phoenix is essentially a "flying laboratory" designed for atmospheric collection. There are only three of these modernized "R" models in existence.
+1
The Hardware: It is a modified KC-135R tanker equipped with external "flow-through" pods and an internal compressor system.
The Mission: It uses specialized filters to trap radioactive particulates and high-pressure spheres to collect gaseous effluents (like Xenon isotopes) from the atmosphere in real-time.
The Operator: It is flown by the 45th Reconnaissance Squadron and staffed by technical experts from the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC), the primary US agency responsible for monitoring nuclear treaty compliance.
The Concern: Why are they there now?
The presence of a WC-135 during an active kinetic conflict like the current one in Iran signals three primary strategic concerns:
Verification of Strikes: Following the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian sites like the "Minzadehei" compound (Tehran) and facilities in Isfahan, the "sniffer" is used to determine if those sites actually contained fissile material. Analyzing the isotopes in the air allows the US to confirm whether a targeted facility was a research lab, a storage site, or an active weaponization plant.
"Dirty Bomb" and Tactical Nukes: There is high-level OSINT concern regarding Iran's potential use of a "dirty bomb" (conventional explosives wrapped in radioactive waste) as part of its Mosaic Defense. The WC-135 provides the only real-time theater-wide early warning system for such a release.
Fallout Monitoring: In the event of an accidental or intentional strike on a functional nuclear reactor (like Bushehr), the Constant Phoenix is the primary tool used to track the "plume" of radioactive fallout to protect US troops and Gulf allies. |
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03-11-26 spal
Savonarola :-))
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Yes the spirit of the colores has always been with us! |
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03-11-26 victor
named Savona from the fierce tribe known only by the name colores
//
Savonarola :-))
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03-11-26 spal
JOB - carries 20 cents per share in cash ... it is now under strategic review considering unsolicited offers ...
At 25 cents I see a double this year.
We or I shall see.
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Activists like Star Equity (holds 5,4%) have argued that the market is essentially "ignoring" the platform and only valuing the cash.
If JOB generates $80M–$90M in revenue, a $60M Enterprise Value is only a 0.6x–0.7x revenue multiple. For a staffing firm, this is still a "value" or "distressed" multiple.
Because of the cash, the "downside" is historically protected at roughly $0.18–$0.20 (the cash value per share).
If you are playing for a sale, you are essentially betting that Roth (the advisor ... they are a rock and roll type outfit) can convince a buyer that the "platform" is worth more than the $6M–$10M "Enterprise Value" the market currently assigns it. |
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03-11-26 spal
Trump is essentially saying that the Iranians should put themselves in a position of accepting whatever terms the United States seeks to unilaterally impose, including the total dissolution of the Iranian state, plus sanctions, punishments, occupations and other humiliations.
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Yep - not wise. |
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03-11-26 spal
merchants began rejecting Roman coinage and instead demanded payment in either premium goods (like spices or silk) or in hard assets-- like gold.
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Leading the charge was a certain mercator named Savona from the fierce tribe known only by the name colores ... |
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03-11-26 spal
JOB
GEE GROUP INC
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Position taken.
Situation potentially in play soon IMO. Resistance at 20 cents as this is the cash value. |
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03-11-26 savo
Historians have long noted that demands for unconditional surrender have worked to prolong conflicts rather than shorten them, leading to needless death on both sides. After all, Trump is essentially saying that the Iranians should put themselves in a position of accepting whatever terms the United States seeks to unilaterally impose, including the total dissolution of the Iranian state, plus sanctions, punishments, occupations and other humiliations. What government would accede to this? Very few would, which is why only very weak, small, and relatively unarmed regimes can be forced into accepting unconditional surrender after anything less than a protracted war.
Iran, however, is not weak, small, or relatively unarmed. And, geography is in its favor. Indeed, in an interview earlier this week, international-relations expert John Mearsheimer spoke at length about the likely outcomes of the US. “It is almost impossible for me to see how Israel and the US win this war,” Mearsheimer concluded, largely because the prospects for regime change—i.e., unconditional surrender—are extremely small. Moreover, in order to get the kind of regime change that Trump is talking about, any new regime would also have to be permanently aligned with the United States. That is, a new regime isn’t enough. It has to also be a regime that takes orders from the United States. Given the reality on the ground in Iran, Mearsheimer continued, any new regime will be hostile to the United States. This fact is hinted at in the fact the the new Ayatollah, who has now replaced the 86-year old Ayatollah Khamenei, is far more radical than the old one. For example, the older Ayatollah, assassinated by the US this week, was against nuclear enrichment and was a moderate. The new leadership is not.
Thus, Mearsheimer concludes that, in order to win this conflict, “All the Iranians have to do is survive.” The Iranians know that “unconditional surrender” means turning Iran into a perennial puppet state of the US regime. This is not something that governments—or even their subject populations—tend to accept without first engaging in a long war of self-preservation.
Not that the current administration will trouble itself with these sorts of details. Nonetheless, the reality of the situation means that so long as Trump actually sticks to a goal of unconditional surrender, it is very likely he is committing the United States to a lengthy war. |
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03-11-26 savo
is history repeating itself?
March 10, 2026
The Persian Sasanian Empire-- also known as the Empire of the Iranians-- had become a major problem for Rome by the middle of the 3rd century AD.
The Iranians were ruled by an extremely aggressive king named Shapur I who had little respect for the Roman Empire’s grandeur and authority. And with limited Roman presence in the Middle East, Shapur saw an opportunity to pounce.
From their capital in southwestern Iran, the Sasanids invaded west into Roman lands (modern day Syria and Turkey). And Rome’s 13-year-old emperor, Gordian III, personally led an army to repel his new enemy. But the Romans were vanquished, and Gordian was killed.
His successor, Philip the Arab, sued for peace and offered Shapur a tremendous amount of money to stop fighting. Needless to say, Shapur took the money… but continued the war.
By the year 260, the war was going very badly for Rome; their forces were depleted, their treasury exhausted, their supplies running thin. And at the Battle of Edesssa that summer, the Roman Emperor himself was captured by Iranian forces… and marched back to Persia as a captive.
This wasn’t necessarily THE singular moment that shook up the ancient world. Rome was already in deep trouble at that point-- and everyone knew it.
The Roman economy was weak. Inflation was kicking in to high gear. Political corruption was rampant. The once great empire that built extraordinary works of architecture and engineering couldn’t manage to get anything right anymore. It was embarrassing.
So, when news of the Roman Emperor’s humiliating defeat, capture, and forced march back to Iran spread across the ancient world, people probably just shrugged their shoulders and thought, “well that figures…”
Even just a century before, such news would have been met with disbelief. But by the third century, Rome’s extreme failures and incompetence had become normalized… almost expected.
One key impact was that foreign kingdoms-- most of whom happily traded with the Roman Empire to access its vast and relatively prosperous consumer market-- started to lose confidence in Rome… and Roman currency.
Rome’s primary silver coin, for example, had been debased from 98% silver purity during the reign of Augustus in the first century AD, down to just 15% by the middle of the third century.
Yet for more than two centuries, Rome’s foreign trading partners continued to use those heavily debased coins… simply because Rome had a large and terrifying army.
That’s easy to understand; when everyone believes you’re a military superpower, you can get away with some pretty outrageous currency dilution.
But that military defeat (plus the Roman Emperor being captured and marched back to Persia) shredded the perception of Roman invincibility. Suddenly the empire looked weak… and trading partners revolted.
Over time, merchants began rejecting Roman coinage and instead demanded payment in either premium goods (like spices or silk) or in hard assets-- like gold.
More importantly, because foreign merchants no longer wanted to use them, those Roman coins rapidly made their way back home… and the flood of currency back into the Roman economy caused yet another severe bout of inflation.
This is not a particularly unique story. The cycle of power, the rise and fall of empire, the loss of reserve currency status, is all too familiar in history. And it’s worth wondering if we’re witnessing the same cycle now.
Perhaps. Despite its challenges, I am and always will be rooting for America. And I’ve argued many times before that the US has a [narrow] window to escape the gravitational field of its fiscal black hole… to reassert the dominance of the US dollar… and to reestablish its place atop the global order.
It helps that the US economy is ridiculously innovative, that Europe keeps shooting itself in the testicles in the most inconceivable ways, and that China has its own extreme demographic and economic challenges. So, it’s still a jump ball from here.
But there is a distinct possibility that, like Rome in the 3rd century, America’s trading partners could rapidly move away from the US dollar. Again, I’m in no way rooting for this to happen. But some evidence is already in front of us.
The gold price is an obvious example. Gold isn’t some sh!t-coin or meme stock that suddenly became popular in a Redditt chat room.
Gold’s rise, as we have been predicting and reporting for years is because foreign governments and central banks have been losing confidence in the United States.
They saw an American president shake hands with thin air. They saw the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. They saw the Treasury Department routinely freeze US dollar assets that were held by foreign countries. They saw eye-popping US budget deficits and a Congress unwilling to stop it.
All of this prompted foreign governments and central banks to reallocate just a tiny portion of their US dollar assets into gold. And just that tiny (few hundred billion dollars) reallocation caused gold to hit $5,000.
Frankly I think very few people really appreciate how much higher gold can go from here.
Foreigners are sitting on $40+ trillion in US “cash-adjacent” assets, like Treasury bonds, bank deposits, money market funds, etc. And if just a few hundred billion dollars pushed the gold price up to $5,000, what will happen if they invest, say, $4 trillion in gold? Even that would only be 10%.
After modeling with a few AI simulations, and a little help from JP Morgan’s analysts, a $10,000 gold price would entail foreign governments and central banks scooping up about 10,000 metric tons over the next few years.
Now, to be fair, this would be unprecedented. The highest annual central bank purchases reached 1,000 tons in 2024, so it’s literally never happened. Such a shift into gold would only occur if there were a key geopolitical shift signaling that other countries have truly lost all confidence.
That’s unlikely as long as the US is able to maintain military dominance. But it’s also why so much is riding on the outcome of Iran.
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03-11-26 amateur
Pana, destroying drone factories is not easy but not impossible, with massive intelligence. Indispensable components can also be targeted.
Was Iran not supplying those to Russia? There migh reflex in the UKR war… |
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03-11-26 spal
The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the oil and shipping industries for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing strike campaign against Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Reuters.
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No big surprise ... maybe another tweet from Trump will do it ... |
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03-11-26 spal
Dr. Foad Izadi, prominent political analyst and professor at the University of Tehran, said Iran has the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz for “at least six months.”
➤
@IzadiFoad
said “the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for some time until some sort of an economic… financial solution is achieved.” He said Iran wants to be compensated for “all the damages that United States and Israel have done.”
➤ “The days of everybody enjoying cheap oil and Iranians suffering under sanctions, those are over.”
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I think they get it. |
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