09-25-26 hann
Gold - It's interesting to look at returns in gold terms (like how many oz u can buy now vs 5, 10, 20 years ago). It's a little sobering. To have done a lot better u have had to buy AI, Faang etc.
I used to own gdx/gdxj during run of gold from 1.2k to around 2k. Tbh it's not my favorite investment. Volatile, no div income. My observation is higher interest rates are actually negative for gold as opportunity cost of ownership is higher. Of course the recent run from 2 to 4k is during a major trend shift to higher interest rates and inflation.
Japan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xO2aDuaabj8
Very interesting. Jp economy is starting to grow. Tailwinds - corporates investing after years of debt reduction, self sufficiency/china replacement, fall in yen - CA surplus, higher domestic rates means local funds can earn in jpy, no need to place in USD assets, can also export more easily. Govt deficit only in 1+% range. Debt to gdp on net of financial assets basis is only 60%. Also pension obligations, even in the worst possible case reaches year 2100. AI checked some of these.
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09-24-26 carib
Pill: if the future was known, current prices would already embed it..
;-) |
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09-24-26 pillz
money markets now fully reflect three Fed hikes over the next year
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it all depend on Iran and Ukraine and Russia , if those geopolitical go to the right direction , it will be Fed not hikes but lower the yield , it can change now every day ... |
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09-24-26 Merlino
| Fwiw technicians (Elliot wave, Fibonacci, etc) put a max high of 5.70-5.80 for 30Y and of 5.40-5.50 for 10Y UST and a strengthening of the usd (against other Fiat) |
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09-24-26 carib
Question: what will happen to US fiscal policy after mid-term?
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09-24-26 carib
| money markets now fully reflect three Fed hikes over the next year |
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09-24-26 carib
Savo: the argument is.. that for every investor selling $ to but GLD, there is inevitably another one selling GLD for dollars, so the US$ must be invested in monetary instruments one way or another. The exception is gold miners, of course.
The key question is: what is the maximum sustainable real rate, for the US$? (nominal rates are compensated by inflation so are a wash) |
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09-24-26 savo
merlino.. sorry.. i do understand what you are saying... the fact that the most liquid currency is the dollar and is the one mostly used to buy and sell financial assets... does not guarantee a purchasing value.
The whole stock of dollars of 1913 is worth now 0.01% of its original value but the dollar is still around.
Why to hold dollars at 5% if the value goes down 10%
The natural thing is to find some other monetary asset to store your wealth.
Given its scarcity and fixed supply that asset should go up as the dollar loses value.
Problem.. the Satanist House and Fed do not want that... they need people to buy USTs. So they repress the value of gold and silver through bullion banks who are always on the sell side of gold and silver paper on istructions.
i saw a study which show the price of silver would be minus 300 if one counts only London and NY hours.
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09-24-26 carib
Merlino: correct.
Saudi sovereign fund buying bonds, apparently. |
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09-24-26 carib
Ft:
Since the Fed now has ample space to cut, bonds can once again offer the kind of upside that was not feasible when we were in the world of low rates. Bonds have therefore become more valuable for what I perceive to be the key portfolio risk.
This leaves me thinking the US bond sell-off has gone far enough and that five is the magic number for the 10-year yield. It can’t sustainably go much higher.
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09-24-26 Merlino
where is this money will go ??? that is my question ...
exactly... that money has to go into some other monetary asset... i can't the only two that can perform a monetary metal task and be stored are gold and silver.
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usdT (and other fin assets) are purchased/sold in usd currency not in gold or copper...there is no fresh money involved...if somebody sells usdT other somebody has to sell gold or whatever to get usd to buy said usdT...am I wrong?
However buying or selling main pressure is a different matter and it affects prices and liquidity, I think |
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09-24-26 pillz
In short: the "Bessent trade" is not working.
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then the FED will take it over, and you will see the difference |
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09-24-26 carib
| In short: the "Bessent trade" is not working. |
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09-24-26 carib
Pill: the observation I make is that, if you have been holding UST30Y.. you are now sitting on a significant capital loss.
If you expect rates to go higher (as Savo suggests).. you can switch 30Y bonds into 3 months notes, and later buy back at lower price.
But if everyone does that, prices fall faster. |
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09-24-26 savo
I think 5% is a normal rate, not a very high one.
with a 5% PPI that rate is very low... I expect much higher rates...
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09-24-26 savo
where is this money will go ??? that is my question ...
exactly... that money has to go into some other monetary asset... i can't the only two that can perform a monetary metal task and be stored are gold and silver.
That is why I think algos have been programmed wrong (i put right but that was a typo).
The were programmed to look at nominal rates instead of value or real rates.
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09-24-26 pillz
The US, because of the way the system is built, owes a significant chunk to non-residents
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I know , it is a problem, but , those who hold Tr from the US are not stupid to sell their bond, as an reaction they will have a problem too, because it is a world problem ..., and if they sell, where is this money will go ??? that is my question ... |
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09-24-26 carib
| Disclaimer: I think 5% is a normal rate, not a very high one. |
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09-24-26 carib
| Pill: issue is the EU and Japan owe money to themselves, essentially. The US, because of the way the system is built, owes a significant chunk to non-residents. It is not like Japan, IMHO. |
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09-24-26 pillz
the US never had debt above 100% of GDP in modern times.
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witch country have les then 100% debt / GDP in modern times , it is a world problem , not only an US problem ... and maybe therefore gold could again go up, because central banks will buy big debts |
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09-24-26 carib
Pill: in the current context, I agree: yields up, $ up, as in the past.
I was just trying to test the theory to the limit. Except during WW2, the US never had debt above 100% of GDP in modern times.
high real rates without fiscal remedies mean massive monetisation, and massive monetisation means high inflation. Then either you get a serious crisis, or just loss of purchasing power of the currency. It means, as Savo describes.. loss of value versus real stuff, that can be Gold, metals, houses, chinese currency, you name it. |
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09-24-26 savo
the dollar will be around...
no doubt... what we do not know is what that dollar will buy...
if history is an indication... having lost 99.9% of its value since the fed was created... (and no value lost in the previous 100 years when the Fed was not around)... we can expect a similar performance going forward.
Regarding Gold.. seems to me that the algorithms were not programed right.
If US rates are going up... Gold should be going up too.
Rates are the fee the US has to pay so that people are willing to hold dollars. If rates go up means that fee goes up... if the fee goes up means people expect loss of value... if the dollar is expected to lose value... Gold should go up.
The world needs currency. Govs have proved incapable of providing stable currency. Too much political pressure to borrow spend, bail out, print, etc.
Gold, silver, copper, nickel.. have proved to be able to perform the task no other goods can.
The will come back...i do not know when...
I believe gold and siver prices are being suppressed throught the paper market. It costs the fed nothing to sell and sell future contracts. Physical gold in india is 15% higher than in the West. |
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09-24-26 mo-mon
savo- I understand.
carib- correct!
hann- well done! Lux condo in BGC either rent or owned by your HK corp. Rented beach house in Palawan or Bohol for your chill time or stay in exclusive 5 star resorts there.
Invisible & being low key is the way. |
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09-24-26 spal
me think if the US yield must go up , so will the $ , all in my humble opinion .
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Yes ... US will be around for a long time ... by popular demand.
;)) |
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09-24-26 spal
How FECCF Compares to the Universe
Deep "Distress / LatAm" Multiple Compression: FECCF trades at ~3.5x EV/EBITDA, a valuation level reserved for distressed E&P entities or highly leveraged commodity names. This persists despite the company having divested its core upstream risk to Parex and de-levered to under 1.0x Net Debt.
Off-the-Charts Cash Claim per Dollar: Producing a ~31% pro-rata EBITDA yield relative to its Enterprise Value, FECCF offers a cash flow claim almost 3x higher than standard small-cap midstream peers and 5x higher than the broader Russell 2000 average.
Misclassified Asset Class: The market continues to lump FECCF into the small-cap Colombian E&P bucket (4.0x median) rather than pricing its ODL pipeline dividends ($65M/yr) and Puerto Bahía port facility under midstream infrastructure benchmarks (8.0x–10.0x). |
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09-24-26 spal
How ALVOF Compares to the Universe
Priced as an E&P, Powered like a Utility: ALVOF’s ~5.0x EV/EBITDA multiple places it squarely in line with standard, commodity-exposed small-cap E&P peers. However, its business model resembles a contracted midstream entity due to its 100%-owned gas processing plant (UPGN) and long-term fixed-price sales agreement with Bahiagás.
Top-Tier Cash Flow & Yield Generation: A ~21% FFO yield puts ALVOF in the top 10% of all North American small caps for pure cash flow generation. Its ~6.7% direct dividend yield is almost triple the broader small-cap average, backed by a zero-debt balance sheet that eliminates the credit risk typical of high-yielding micro-caps.
The "Small-Cap Discount": The primary reason ALVOF doesn't command a midstream multiple (8.0x+) is scale ($270M market cap) and single-jurisdiction concentration in Brazil. |
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09-24-26 pillz
which could imply lower US$ FX. Or am I mistaken?
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Carib, I think you are michtoken , look like today, the Tr yield went up and the $ also ... not down ...also gold went down.. me think if the US yield must go up , so will the $ , all in my humble opinion .. I don't see witch currency could go up , maby the Swiss F , or maybe the gold in the longer term ...even they say that gold go down when the dollar go up and when the yield go up... |
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