08-17-26 spal
| BTW MER is essentially controlled by BTG Pactual (Andreas Esteves & Huw Jenkins). |
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08-17-26 spal
Why Meren (MER) is the Ultimate Speculative Asymmetry
The Unlocked "Free" Option on Venus (Namibia):
Valeura is bounded by shallow-water infill engineering. Meren’s indirect exposure to TotalEnergies' Venus discovery in Block 2913B gives it a ticket to what is widely considered the largest deepwater oil discovery of the decade (5B–6B+ barrels).
The Speculative Upside: The market currently prices MER almost exclusively as a mid-tier West African producer. If TotalEnergies formally reaches a Final Investment Decision (FID) and advances Venus toward first oil, Meren's net asset value (NAV) expands exponentially. You are getting world-class exploration optionality virtually for free.
Convexity via Impact Oil & Gas:
The recent corporate cleanup—converting Impact Oil & Gas into a pure-play Namibian development vehicle—eliminates administrative drag and concentrates capital directly into Venus and the surrounding Orange Basin blocks. Any major appraisal success or farm-in deal in the Orange Basin acts as a high-beta catalyst for MER shares.
Paid to Wait:
Unusually for a speculative play, Meren pays a ~9% to 10% annual dividend yield ($0.037 USD/quarter) supported by its deepwater Nigerian cash flows. You aren't suffering negative carry while waiting for the Namibian catalysts to play out. |
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08-17-26 spal
For the Ultra-Orthodox (Haredim), those single-issue priorities are conscription exemptions for yeshiva students and state funding for religious schools. Ben-Gvir's party is a guaranteed vote to protect those exemptions. A secular or centrist politician (like Yair Lapid or Benny Gantz) actively campaigns to end those exemptions and force Haredi men into the military.
For a Haredi voter, expressing "favorability" toward Ben-Gvir in a poll isn't necessarily a declaration that "Ben-Gvir's anti-Arab worldview represents authentic Judaism." It is often a pragmatic calculation: He is the wall keeping our young men out of the army and keeping our institutions funded.
Looks like he bought them off. |
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08-17-26 spal
| The more you believe the more fucked-up you are ... this is known as a Schpalism |
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08-17-26 spal
Ideology in Israel is heavily correlated with religious observance.
===
There you have it. |
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08-17-26 spal
| Among Israeli Jews as a single block, Ben-Gvir’s favorability sits around 40%. |
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08-17-26 spal
Itamar Ben-Gvir - how prevalent are his kind of views? Give me a percentile among Jews.
Among Israeli Jews (Segmented by Religiosity)
Percentile Rank: ~40th Percentile (General Jewry) | ~75th to 80th Percentile (Orthodox/National-Religious)
General Jewish Population: Among Israeli Jews as a single block, Ben-Gvir’s favorability sits around 40%.
The Religious Divide: Ideology in Israel is heavily correlated with religious observance, creating a stark split:
Haredim (Ultra-Orthodox) & Datiim (National Religious): ~77% Favorable. Ben-Gvir’s views on West Bank sovereignty, police power, and Arab-Israeli security represent a mainstream-to-dominant political stance within this cohort.
Hilonim (Secular Jews): ~13% Favorable. Among secular Israelis (who make up roughly 43% of Israeli Jews), Ben-Gvir is overwhelmingly rejected and viewed as a threat to Israeli democracy. |
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08-17-26 spal
Ben-Gvir spearheaded the attempted construction of a crocodile-filled moat around Ktzi'ot Prison in July 2026.
Ok ... |
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08-17-26 carib
UST 30-yr. yield hit 5.29% today, the highest since June 2007 and could be on the verge of breaking out from a long-term ascending triangle pattern.
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08-17-26 carib
unhinged..
“I think we should be doing 30 to 40 targeted assassinations per night,” Ben-Gvir said. “Not just those who pose an immediate threat. There are people there who don’t deserve to live . . . They are not even people.”
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08-17-26 spal
Gold Royalty (GROY) Tether Holdings raised its stake in the gold-focused royalty company to 33.3 million shares. Tether Holdings did so through the purchase of two million Gold Royalty shares from June 22 through July 30 at per share prices ranging from $2.60 to $2.84.
Strange bedfellow ... but I guess good investment choice here. |
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08-17-26 spal
GROY
GOLD RTY CORP CDA
3.23(+2.87%)
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08-17-26 spal
1. Why GROY is Decently Priced Right Now
Turned the Profit Corner: Q2 2026 marked GROY's official inflection into positive net income ($1.8M) and positive operating cash flow ($8.2M in H1), leaving its unprofitable startup phase behind.
100% Revenue Growth Unlocked: H1 2026 revenue doubled year-over-year to $13.9M, while H1 Adjusted EBITDA surged +212% to $12.6M . The financial engine is finally running.
Massive Multiple Disconnect: GROY trades at a steep discount relative to mid-tier and senior royalty peers (P/NAV and P/CF) because the market hasn't fully re-rated its transition from a speculative developer into a cash-generating royalty operator.
De-Risked Balance Sheet: Cleared high-cost debentures and expanded its undrawn revolving credit facility to $125M ($25M accordion) , eliminating near-term dilution risk to fund growth.
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2. Why GROY is a Superior Vehicle to Ride Higher Gold Prices
Zero Direct Inflation Exposure: As a pure royalty/stream holder, GROY takes top-line revenue off the top. When diesel, labor, and cyanide costs surge for mine operators, GROY’s margins remain ~90%+ EBITDA margins with zero cost inflation drag.
Embedded Asset Acceleration: Core anchor assets—Côté Gold (IAMGOLD), Vareš (Adriatic), and Borborema (Aura)—are actively ramping production. Rising gold prices amplify an already expanding physical production curve.
Pure Operating Leverage: Fixed corporate overhead means every additional dollar in gold price flows directly to bottom-line cash flow and net income.
Exploration Upside for Free: Royalty coverage spans millions of acres of active exploration. When operators spend their own capital to expand resources, GROY gets the reserve additions without spending a single dollar
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08-17-26 spal
| GROY ... steadily adding ... high beta to Gold. |
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08-17-26 spal
GCUMF
GUNNISON COPPER CORP
0.335(+3.77%)
Heavy position and will buy dips heavily - developer in full ramp up mode.
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08-17-26 spal
NNBR
NN INC
4.150.25 (+6.41%)
Obeying orders
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08-17-26 spal
| Savo - I was going to post what you just did - simply adding a snide "genie is out of the bottle" comment. |
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08-17-26 savo
De acuerdo con datos federales de Estados Unidos correspondientes a la semana que terminó el 7 de agosto, Venezuela registró un promedio de 743.000 barriles por día (bpd) de exportaciones de crudo hacia territorio estadounidense, una cifra que la ubicó por encima de otros proveedores de la región.
remember this went to zero when clever guaido, vecchio and borges sold to the ignorant then at the WH their brilliant plan. |
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08-17-26 savo
Khatam Al Anbiyaa Central Command:
– We will not stand idly by in the face of the United States naval blockade: Escalatory options in the Strait of Hormuz are ready for immediate implementation.
– Diplomacy has only a few days left; if the deadline passes without a response, the entire region will erupt into flames.
– The era of defense is over; our strategy has shifted to all-out offense, and we will push matters to the breaking point.
@Middle_East_Spectator |
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08-17-26 spal
Guyana ... so yesterday ...
;)) |
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08-17-26 spal
Meren Energy (TSX: MER / OTCQX: MRNFF) — Fresh Catalyst & OSINT Update
Meren Energy released its Q2 2026 financial and operating results late last week (August 11), driving strong market momentum (+4.6% today to CA$2.27 / ~$1.70 USD).
1. Q2 2026 Print & Operational Highlights
Third Quarterly Dividend Declared: Confirmed its $0.037 USD/share quarterly dividend (~9.1% to 10.4% annualized yield), reinforcing that deepwater Nigeria cash flows remain robust despite broader crude price chop.
Production & Guidance: First-half production performance from its offshore Nigeria assets beat internal targets, allowing management to maintain/upgrade full-year production guidance.
Cash Flow Engine: Free cash flow continues to cover both dividend payouts and debt service comfortably, supported by the recent refinancing of its Reserve-Based Lending (RBL) facility.
2. OSINT & Orange Basin / Namibia Tracker
Impact Oil & Gas Restructuring Finalized: The structural separation of Impact Oil & Gas is complete. Impact spun off its non-core South African exploration assets to become a pure-play Namibia development entity.
Focus on Venus (Block 2913B): This corporate cleanup concentrates Meren's indirect exposure strictly on TotalEnergies' Venus light oil discovery. It eliminates overhead burn on speculative exploration blocks, directing capital solely toward pushing Venus to its Final Investment Decision (FID) and first oil.
Block 3B/4B (South Africa): Meren retains its direct carried interest in Block 3B/4B alongside TotalEnergies and QatarEnergy, keeping deepwater Orange Basin upside fully intact without additional capital expenditure drag.
3. Market Chatter & Trading Flow
Institutional Accumulation: Shares have gained +14% over the last 30 days, breaking out toward 52-week highs ($1.85 USD) as institutional screeners digest the revised production guidance and clean dividend yield.
Under-the-Radar Positioning: Despite trading at an EV/EBITDA under 3.2x and generating a double-digit yield, retail chatter remains quiet relative to major E&Ps. The focus remains squarely on TotalEnergies' upcoming appraisal/development updates for Venus to trigger a broader valuation re-rating.
Or in Scphalian ... "Guyana on Steroids—with Double the Scale and Half the Wells."
"Namibia is Guyana Times Two: Bigger Accumulations, Higher Concentration, Pure-Play Supermajor Speed." |
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08-17-26 carib
I would say.. Delcy behaves anyway.. or is dead.
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08-17-26 savo
both actions would work as carrots and get the ball rolling.
If Delcy behaves more liftings can come later. |
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08-17-26 savo
that is the problem...CG try to circumvent the holdouts problem
The best way to deal with holdouts is to start with PDVsa which has no Cacs.
OFAC could also start by lifting sanctions on PDVsa.
As you said sanctions can be removed and put back the following day.
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08-17-26 carib
| PS: so far, I have read no official statement or privately issued paper suggesting a PDVsa debt restructuring is in the cards, outside of a holistic settlement. |
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08-17-26 carib
financial settlement=restructuring of existing debts
political settlement= monarchy or return to democracy... if either is stable. |
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08-17-26 savo
carib.. i do not know what you mean by settlement.
IMHO, veni's recovery requires no sanctions and no licenses.
A PDVsa restructuring could still be done in today's environment.
But not a holistic one.
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08-17-26 carib
Savo: of course the next occupants of the WH can have different plans, but any restructuring still needs US approval.
The unreliability of any settlement probably explains why bonds are trading at 25% of claim.
It would be much better if there was bi-partisan consensus on Veny. |
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08-16-26 savo
No matter who sits in the WH
may be the people in the next WH have a different plan.
The point is that Vietnam..the Talibans... before... Iran now.. show that the way to deal with the US is to last.
If the Rodrigato lasts until the next general election... who knows what will happen next.
The US spent a lot of money throwing expensive bombs on Iran... achieved absolutely nothing other than wasting those bombs, kill a few leaders which were replaced by harder leaders... killed also a lot of school girls.. sank the iranian navy (or so they say) which iran can build again.
All DT seems to want now is to have Iran agree to re-open Hormuz.
Then why the war given that the Strait was open before?? |
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08-16-26 carib
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08-16-26 leopardo
| I’ m stressing the point it must be a friendly offer carib. |
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08-16-26 leopardo
What I Mean is that offre Mist be genero us otherwise if everybody holdsout
NO restructuring can take place |
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08-16-26 carib
PDVsa bonds have no CAC clauses (as Ven 27 and 18), so ultimately some sort of poison pill against holdouts must be in the package, IMHO, to avoid free riding.
I guess the debtor would still be unable to issue new bonds for a while, but after all Veny needs foreign investment more than foreign credit, and multilaterals could offer senior creadit meanwhile. |
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08-16-26 carib
Leo: the Veny bondholder committee recently enlarged its membership size.
If I understood correctly the CG/harvard paper, the debtors could offer in exchange a set of new mirror bonds in a public offer (no need of bondholder majority consent) and make ope legis those new bonds "senior" because they could be secured by sequestered oil revenues.
the dissenting bondholders could hold out, but ultimately find themselves unable to enforce their summary judgements.
Point is, if the offer is generous, and the anti-holdout scheme solid, a vast majority will accept the terms, IMHO. |
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08-16-26 leopardo
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08-16-26 leopardo
If bondholders boicott resteucturing nothing
can be done and Us adminidtration desperately
Need debt to be restructured |
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08-16-26 leopardo
| Carina US consent AND Bondholders Consent. |
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08-16-26 carib
No matter who sits in the WH.. ultimately any restructuring of Veny debt requires US consent.
Point is: within a year.. or after Veny elections? |
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08-16-26 savo
right now depend on US decisions.
emphasis on "right now"
the Rodricato is doing the same thing as Iran: last
... lasting means winning.
In a few months DT may lose both houses... becoming the lamest of all ducks... his party should fire him for incompetence and senility... but they will probably not... he will then double down on his mistakes and bring back the Democans in 2028.
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08-16-26 carib
| I am not sure if the CG paper is just an academic argument, or coordinated with Treasury. Terms of any debt restructuring and access to oil revenue, right now depend on US decisions. |
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08-16-26 savo
i think these guys are confused. The reason to restructure is to regain market access.
Access to the market requires that veni restructures and is current only on its market debt (bonds and bank loans).
arbitration awards, legal claims, commercial trade claims and oil debts, and a range of obligations to countries like China, Iran, and Russia can wait and should be dealt with differently.
Bonded debt does not need reconciliation... it is what it is... and yes, some have Cacs and some do not have Cacs... so there will be hold outs... the reduce holdouts to a minimum the solution is not to invent how to screw them but to make an offer they can't refuse.
Regarding DSA.. that is an invention of the IMF to give work to its employees. Nobody has a clue what oil prices will be tomorrow... least of all what will the price be in 10 years time. Without that price the rest is pointless. |
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08-16-26 carib
| https://www.clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/venezuelas-debt-restructuring-an-alternative-path |
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08-16-26 spal
| Savo - on Open AI - very interesting. Sounds like a self referential Ponzi. |
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