02-14-26 savo
| carib.. you can't have an answer to the wrong question.... ask the right question and I will give you my answer. |
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02-14-26 carib
Savo: as usual, we disagree.
No news in that.
But I did not see your choice of best country-systems.. |
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02-14-26 spaldo
Marco Rubio‘s speech at Munich‘s Security Conference this morning in full lenght:
https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2026/agenda/event/principled-and-pragmatic-wielding-power-in-a-world-in-disarray/
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02-14-26 savo
carib.. that might have been the case in the days of Lord Acton... not anymore...
today.. it is "self evident" that there is more corruption in the US and the EUSSR than in China and Russia.
As emerging markets examples... there is more corruption in today's argie than in the argie of the military... in today's chile than in the Chile of Pinochet... |
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02-14-26 spal
| So far this year, energy is far and away the best-performing sector in the stock market. “Overall, the energy sector is offering what investors seek the most: high free-cash-flow generation, strong and growing dividends, meaningful share buybacks, inflation protection and real-asset exposure,” explains Rob Thummel. |
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02-14-26 carib
| Still waiting on suggestions about the three best countries (existing now) in terms of political system... |
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02-14-26 carib
Panas: as Lord Acton said.. power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely..
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02-14-26 panasonic
Carib, me think corruption plays a much larger roll than political system.
We may say, political sysyem is flawed if allowes high levels of corruption, but such is human nature, we break things :-( |
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02-13-26 spal
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02-13-26 carib
Savo: Hoppe was a student of Rothbard.
Democracy, in its current practical form, has many shortcomings.
I myself have been disinclined to vote in several recent ballots, because they were essentially a choice of the least bad alternative, with the outcome already known to those with access to good polls.
Problem is the current practical alternatives are even worse.
Which are, in your opinion the three countries with the best political systems today?
We can chose in practice between existing options, or discuss academically about non existing ones.. |
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02-13-26 spal
You do know that job creation has been revised down by 2.5mm jobs for the period since 2019 to today..
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If you trace the BLS methodology you will see that Covid and the aftermath had a material impact on the B/D ratio. This was not anticipated in the surveys, but came through in the facts.
People who run around squawking about the revision are clueless about the way the methodology works. It is a lot more subtle then the headlines and the political bloviating of hacks and jornos.
Supply and demand are currently in virtual balance now in the US economy - the job market has tightened in 2 senses ... deportations and a skills deficit at the top end. AI is being watched for effects. At the moment the decision that will be made is to "run it hot" ... that is all that matters to me ... the rest is for coffee klatches. |
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02-13-26 spal
You do know that job creation has been revised down by 2.5mm jobs for the period since 2019 to today..
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This was expected - this is a standard adjustment to the household survey data when the actual tax office data comes in (due to the fact that estimates of what is known as the birth/death of business es is a lagging indicator). No professional economist was surprised.
that retail sales are flat...without considering inflation... meaning that in real terms they are negative... that the dollar continues going down... meaning money is leaving the US...
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Money is not leaving the dollar ... amount of dollar denomination (globally) is steady ... no problem. The US designed this game. Polices the rules and changes them when it needs to ... and it is doing that now.
Yes.. the US continues consuming what it does not produce... borrowing what it does not save... and financing the military with US treasuries... for now... not surprisingly the US stock market is in its 26th bear market year.
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Consuming what it does not produce is known by others including me as trade. This is the actual design ... not a flaw.
I honestly do not understand why anybody pays any attention to any number coming out of the US government... they are all estimations that will inevitably be revised in the opposite direction...
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Because ... they are transparent with their methodology. Now how is your Chinese?
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All good. |
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02-13-26 spal
| and right now the narrative is "run it hot" ... |
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02-13-26 spal
02-13-26 savo
strong economic resilience
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I don't make the rules ... I play the narrative |
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02-13-26 spal
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02-13-26 savo
carib.. you may want to read this book
Democracy: The God That Failed (Hans-Hermann Hoppe)
Democracy is treated today as an unquestionable god—the final form of political legitimacy. In Democracy: The God That Failed, Hans-Hermann Hoppe destroys that myth. Using Austrian economics, political theory, and history, Hoppe demonstrates that a democratic government does not restrain power but accelerates its growth, replacing long-term responsibility with short-term plunder and institutionalizing class conflict under the guise of popular rule. |
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02-13-26 savo
The European Union Now Resembles the Soviet Union
https://mises.org/mises-wire/european-union-now-resembles-soviet-union |
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02-13-26 savo
strong economic resilience
i still can't figure out whether you are serious or are joking...I am inclined to the latter.
You do know that job creation has been revised down by 2.5mm jobs for the period since 2019 to today.. that retail sales are flat...without considering inflation... meaning that in real terms they are negative... that the dollar continues going down... meaning money is leaving the US...
Yes.. the US continues consuming what it does not produce... borrowing what it does not save... and financing the military with US treasuries... for now... not surprisingly the US stock market is in its 26th bear market year.
I honestly do not understand why anybody pays any attention to any number coming out of the US government... they are all estimations that will inevitably be revised in the opposite direction...
But algos are programed the way they are so markets reacts the way they do...eventually they corrects... But why does Powell pay attention to numbers that he knows... like everybody else.. that they are fake... it escapes me.
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02-13-26 spal
| Steepeners/ gold / oil transport and midstream |
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02-13-26 spal
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02-13-26 spal
| PSEC ... added ... the steepener commeth |
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02-13-26 spal
"Rebuilding our military and reestablishing credible deterrence demands the Department of War (DoW) put our Acquisition System and Enterprise on a wartime footing and dramatically accelerate the fielding of new technology and advanced capabilities to maintain the military superiority of our Armed Forces," Secretary of War Pete Hegseth announced in his November acquisition reform package.
Translation: The DoW under Pete Hegseth and the rest of the procurement process is moving away from bloated legacy defense primes toward defense tech startups, creating the next boom that is already underway, giving rise to "war unicorns" like Palmer Luckey's Anduril Industries.
War Unicorns = Fortress America schtocks |
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02-13-26 spal
Run it hot ...
Now though, the US economy is at a watershed that puts it in ‘double jeopardy’. Given that labor demand and labor supply are in perfect balance, a drop in either would cause output to contract.
Put another way, both demand and supply must expand. To counter this double jeopardy, the Fed must run the economy hot. |
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02-13-26 spal
This guy is reading Colores:
By Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research
Executive Summary:
The Fed will run the US economy hot – because, with labour demand and supply now in balance, both demand and supply must expand to keep output expanding.
Short-term US real rates will come down further because the Fed will continue to cut even with inflation in the 2.5-3.5 percent range.
The US dollar will continue to weaken, given the currency’s dependence on real interest rate differentials.
The US yield curve will undergo a ‘bear steepening’ as US inflation expectations ratchet higher. Meaning, T-bonds will underperform cash, as well as other major sovereign bonds.
Stocks will continue to outperform bonds.
New tactical trade: Overweight MSCI ACW Consumer Discretionary versus Industrials.
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02-13-26 spal
Inflation cooled more than expected in January, data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.
The Consumer Price Index showed that consumer prices increased 0.2% in January from a month earlier, and 2.4% on an annual basis. This report, delayed by the brief government shutdown this month, provided the first official glimpse of where prices were trending at the start of 2026 following a year of inflation hovering stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a 0.3% monthly increase in consumer prices and an annual bump of 2.5%. On a "core" basis — which excludes volatile categories like energy and food — prices rose 0.3% over the last month and 2.5% over the prior year in January. |
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02-13-26 Merlino
pana, amnesty law still not approved.
dragging their feet.
.........................
They say it will be approved next Tuesday...who knows?
Bond prices climbing the wall of worry (of a reversal in politics/intentions I mean).
Is it possible some buyers know a restructuring license is in its way?
When me buying at falling prices in 2017 I now realize some buyers most likely knew that brutal sanctions were on their way |
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02-13-26 spal
Last week, the January ISM manufacturing figure expanded at its strongest pace since 2022, beating all expectations. This figure has been stuck under 50 (contractionary territory) for several years now, and is just now entering expansion. Hence cementing the reacceleration narrative of strong economic resilience.
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02-13-26 savo
pana.. we live in a world of fabricated news and fabricated data...
just exposing another of those. |
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02-13-26 victor
pana, amnesty law still not approved.
dragging their feet. |
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02-13-26 pillz
by whom?
//
probably by pension funds .... |
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02-13-26 panasonic
| Savo, who cares! $25B is peanuts, probably 10oz of gold at maturity in 30 years :-)) |
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02-13-26 panasonic
"Investors are hunting for potential losers.”
And soon they will be talking about potential "survivors" :-(( |
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