08-16-26 spal
| Savo - on Open AI - very interesting. Sounds like a self referential Ponzi. |
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08-15-26 savo
OpenAI is falling apart right now.
9 of their most important leaders have left the company recently, and Altman is about to ask the public to buy the stock.
2 of them even walked out within 72 hours of OpenAI handing its own staff $7 billion in cash...
On Monday, August 10, OpenAI completed a deal letting current and former employees sell roughly $7 billion worth of their shares. The price valued the company at $852 billion, the exact same number as its March funding round.
On Tuesday, August 11, Brad Lightcap announced he was leaving after 8 years. He spent 4 of them as chief financial officer, then ran the company as chief operating officer from 2022 until April. He worked alongside Sam Altman at Y Combinator before OpenAI existed.
On Thursday, August 13, chief revenue officer Denise Dresser announced she was leaving. She was hired in December from Salesforce, where she had been the CEO of Slack. In April she took over most of Lightcap's responsibilities. She lasted 8 months.
The cash window opened Monday. By Thursday both executives who ran the business side were gone.
But what's interesting is who actually wrote the $7 billion cheque:
Every previous time OpenAI let its employees cash out, an outside investor bought the shares. In October, Thrive Capital, SoftBank and others put up $6.6 billion at a valuation near $500 billion. There was a $1.5 billion version of the same deal in 2024.
This time OpenAI bought the shares back itself, using its OWN money.
So no outside investor put a single dollar behind that $852 billion price. The company named its own number and then paid it.
This is a business generating around $2 billion a month while losing roughly $1.22 for every single dollar it earns.
And it just spent $7 billion of that cash buying its own stock at a number no third party ever tested.
https://x.com/Ric_RTP/status/2088261230054060274 |
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08-15-26 savo
meanwhile QE accelerating ... add QE in japan andthe 10 year around 4.70...
Bessent has a problem...
T-Bills purchased by the Federal Reserve jumped to $533 billion this week.
The Federal Reserve is still buying $40 billion of short-duration T-bills per month with absolutely no explanation of what's going on.
These "temporary" operations were supposed to end in April 2026.
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/2088108551067603255 |
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08-15-26 savo
right... the problem is that the old fool in WH can not think straight... instead of doing Israel's bidding... spending a lot of money his country does not have... make his sailors mad for months at sea without toilets and without sex with their wives or husbands... he could just offer Veni some form of annexation and have it producing 10 mm barrels a day in a few years making Hormuz and the middle east irrelevant.
And if the 30 mm venezuelans choose to move to the US... better still... veni would be like a giant oil field without expenses in education, health, housing... etc... |
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08-15-26 carib
| Savo: maybe the solution would be to declare Veny a "US territory" like American Samoa, after a local referendum confirming popular support.. self governing, but with US military bases, no representation in the US congress, and no automatic right for Venezolanos to move to the USA. |
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08-15-26 savo
declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,
that would be controversial ... what would not be controversial would be to declare Veni territory of the US.
The dream of every venezuelan is to move to the US.. in this way they will not neet to move as veni would be US.
Creditors would be delighted as veni would not need a restrcuturing... just refinancing.
Oil producers would be delighted too... as there would not be confiscation fear. |
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08-15-26 spal
| Revision - on Frontera there is an error - I annualized the ODL dividends whereas they should total c. 80 cents p.a. and so normalized 12 months cash flow needs to be reduced. I still see a rerate, but clearly more in line with this. |
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08-15-26 carib
US President Donald Trump said Friday that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a US territory, following a Truth Social post on Wednesday in which he said of the waterway, "I think we will keep it."
"Pretty soon I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States," Trump told a crowd at a Garden City, New York, event honoring police.
Trump said the declaration would come "after we [the US] finish defeating Iran," which he described as being "very badly defeated."
go figure.. |
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08-15-26 spal
Note:
The stunts and actions displayed in this comment are performed by trained professionals in equity shares. Do not attempt to duplicate, re-create, or perform the same or similar actions at home, as it can be extremely dangerous and may result in serious injury. |
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08-15-26 spal
Frontera released their Q2 result on August 14 - and their first as a standalone infrastructure company.
The number to appreciate is $USD 75 cents cash flow this quarter per share.
At C$8.49, the stock is trading at just over 2x annualized operational cash flow.
For an infrastructure business with long-term, contracted assets (Puerto Bahía + 35% of ODL), midstream peer groups typically command 6x to 10x Price-to-Cash-Flow (or EV/EBITDA) multiples.
For example:
Typical US Midstream Cash Yields: 8% to 12%
Frontera's Implied Cash Yield: ~48%
A figure of USD $0.75 cash flow per share in a single quarter is exceptionally strong.
It confirms that the market is currently pricing the post-sale stub at a distressed ~2x cash flow multiple, despite the underlying midstream assets (Puerto Bahía and ODL) delivering stable, infrastructure-grade cash generation.
As the market digests these standalone numbers over the post-earnings period, this cash yield provides a strong fundamental thesis for a significant re-rate.
Note this saids nothing about the major regasification project - and the legendary company Excelerate has been contracted and will soon have the FSRU Express docked at Puerto Bahia (Ecopetrol is now well advanced on presales). See - https://www.giignl.org/news/excelerate-confirms-colombian-fsru-charter-deal
These shares are significantly undervalued - $10 is my expectation by year end and $15 a target for 2027.
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I just posted this on Seeking Alpha as a reply to an anal who has got this schtock significantly wrong. This is my largest position and I will add.
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08-15-26 pillz
VIX Tumbles
The Cboe Volatility Index hit its lowest point year-to-date |
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08-15-26 Merlino
| https://www.eluniversal.com/economia/239156/luis-vicente-leon-estima-que-venezuela-llegue-a-2-millones-de-barriles-de-petroleo-para-2028 |
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