03-09-26 spal
| My view is that this ... whatever it is ... will be over in 2 weeks by and large, but the Middle East will walk away considerably impaired. Israel will be Israel. |
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03-09-26 spal
Strains in the global oil market are becoming even more pronounced, with extreme backwardation setting in. Brent for May is now more than $9 a barrel more costly than the June contract.
===
Thanks Pilly - last Thursday I went briefly almost to 100% cash. On Friday I rebalanced to 25% oil exposure and 75% cash.
I expect only to see oil related opportunities tomorrow in the main ... otherwise the open will show massive risk off ... for a while.
It is a chaos market ... this is our home.
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03-09-26 spal
The KOSPI trades like a penny stock.
Last five days:
-7.25%
+0.02%
+9.63%
-12.06%
-7.24%
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03-09-26 pillz
December WTI @75, almost 40 dollars below April…
//
the name is backwardation ... |
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03-09-26 pillz
you are looking at the present.
//
yes for analyzing the future .. |
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03-09-26 amateur
| December WTI @75, almost 40 dollars below April… |
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03-09-26 savo
pillz
you are not looking at the future...you are looking at the present. |
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03-09-26 pillz
| still my ideal position in short puts and calls on JNUG is still gold at 5200 |
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03-09-26 pillz
you are a seasoned investor... zoom out...
//
I always look to the future, never on the past ... |
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03-09-26 pillz
| The dollar rose against Asian currencies and gold tumbled on concern the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer or even raise borrowing costs to prevent inflation. |
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03-09-26 pillz
Schpal =
Strains in the global oil market are becoming even more pronounced, with extreme backwardation setting in. Brent for May is now more than $9 a barrel more costly than the June contract. |
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03-09-26 pillz
The dollar, which notched its sharpest one-week rise in 15 months on the breakout of war last week, has been the most consistent safe-haven asset, as gold has faltered amid broad selling in anything that has lately made sharp gains.
"The dollar benefits from its twin status as a safe-haven and energy exporter," said Joe Capurso, Head of Foreign Exchange, International and Geoeconomics at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. |
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03-09-26 pillz
Dollar surges as Middle East war sends oil above $110 a barrel
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/dollar-surges-as-usiran-war-pushes-oil-past-100-a-barrel-4548648 |
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03-09-26 savo
his presidency is at stake.. if he TACOs he can spin it in any way he wants... americans are busy with their lives and will believe whatever he tells them ...in a few days the news cycle will be focused on something else...
if he presses forward and results do not come quickly he is done. |
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03-09-26 amateur
Is TACO still valid? Or will DT take the pain and keep pushing forward?
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03-09-26 savo
clearly Hegseth miscalculated... Iran was more prepared than he thought.
Trump may double down and go for total destruction of Iran or TACO and leave NetanDracula to sort out his mess. |
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03-09-26 savo
pillz..
you are a seasoned investor... zoom out...
gold ended 2025 at 4,339.. at the moment, in the middle of another US military fiasco... it is at 5,095.. that is 17% up... how is that bad?
silver.. ended 2025 at 71... today 83... up 16.9%.. how is that bad?
S&P YTD -1.73%.. how is that good?
Dow YTD -1.82%... how is that good?
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03-09-26 spal
In the first week of March, we’ve seen gold dip even as oil spiked. This typically happens when large funds are forced to liquidate "winners" (gold) to cover losses in "losers" (equities/SaaS debt). Inflationary forces will pull it back up again.
Meanwhile oil has detached from the rest of things for obvious reasons ... 6 sigma move up tomorrow. |
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03-09-26 amateur
| Oil up 20% and gold down? Something seems odd… |
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03-09-26 spal
| If they do ... there are cholera outbreaks in 3 days ... a massive, calamitous exodus of "biblical proportions" ... and a collapse of all GCC economies. |
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03-09-26 spal
n FX markets it really is the case of buy the dollar and nothing else.
===
If the Iranians decide to knock out the desalination plants in the Gulf it is game over for the entire GCC ... this is what is at stake now.
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03-09-26 pillz
| The dollar is so strong today that even currencies of oil exporting nations such as Norway are weaker versus it, with the krone down 0.8% versus the greenback. In FX markets it really is the case of buy the dollar and nothing else. |
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03-09-26 pillz
US 30 46,585.80 -915.8 -1.93%
US 500 6,612.10 -127.9 -1.90%
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03-09-26 pillz
XAU/USD - Gold Spot US Dollar
Real-time
USD
5,042.27
-128.85
(-2.50%)
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03-09-26 pillz
backwardation means severe shortage
//
I don't think so, backwardation , is the future prices are below cash price , soo, there is plenty of oil in the future .. |
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03-09-26 spal
| Sorry the March 12 bit was extraneous. |
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03-09-26 spal
| Iran is currently using "nuisance strikes" (like today's Bahrain hit) to show they can do it. The optimal order of battle suggests they are saving a "Total Blackout" of a major facility like Jubail as their final bargaining chip before the March 12 deadline. |
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03-09-26 spal
The Pressure for Settlement: "The Water-Exit Strategy"
Iran’s goal is to force the GCC states (UAE, Saudi, Qatar) to break from the U.S.-led "Operation Epic Fury." They are applying three types of pressure:
The "Sovereignty of Survival": By hitting water, Iran shifts the conflict from "defending the Gulf" to "defending our people's lives." This forces GCC leaders to demand a U.S. ceasefire to protect their own domestic legitimacy.
The "Expatriate Flight": Without water, the global labor force (which makes up 80%+ of the UAE/Qatar population) will leave permanently. This would destroy the region's economy for decades, not just years.
The "Precedent" Shield: By claiming the U.S. hit their Qeshm Island plant first, Iran is signaling to the UN and global community that their actions are "defensive retaliation," making it politically harder for the West to escalate without appearing to cause a genocide. |
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03-09-26 spal
The "Precedent" Doctrine:
Why Desalination is Next
The most critical OSINT signal is the Iranian Foreign Ministry's March 7 statement regarding the Qeshm Island desalination plant. By framing a (likely accidental) impact on their own water infrastructure as a "U.S. precedent," Tehran has created a legal/rhetorical "green light" for their own forces.
The Target Logic: Desalination plants are large, fixed, coastal, and highly flammable (due to co-located power units). They are essentially "un-defendable" against low-altitude drone saturation.
Reasoning:
Iran cannot win a kinetic war against the U.S. Navy. They will instead aim for a "Civilian Breakpoint"—hoping that a 48-hour water outage in a major city like Manama or Kuwait City triggers a domestic political crisis in the GCC that forces a ceasefire. |
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03-09-26 spal
| backwardation means severe shortage |
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03-09-26 spal
and the $ is up , not down :-))
===
aka "flight to safety" |
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03-09-26 spal
boots on the ground in iran.
===
They have to go in an physically remove the canisters of enriched uranium. |
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03-09-26 spal
as a result of this war, sanchez' spain is now extremely popular in turkey.
watch the video.
===
Interesting Vic. |
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03-08-26 pillz
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03-08-26 pillz
| Gold’s move lower is now extending. With a gauge of the US dollar gaining ground, spot bullion has slumped by more than 2%. Elsewhere, silver, platinum and palladium are all getting hit, too. |
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03-08-26 pillz
US 30 46,580.50 -921.1 -1.94%
US 500 6,623.80 -116.2 -1.72%
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03-08-26 pillz
XAU/USD - Gold Spot US Dollar
Real-time
USD
5,070.20
-100.92
(-1.95%) |
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03-08-26 pillz
XAU/USD - Gold Spot US Dollar
Real-time Currencies
USD
5,080.63
-90.49
(-1.75%)
|
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03-08-26 pillz
Beyond the headline price, oil traders will be zeroing in on the difference between contracts for indications about how tight the market is.
Brent’s prompt spread — the gap between its two closest contracts — topped $8.50 a barrel in backwardation this morning, with traders forced to pay a huge premium for May over June.
That’s the most in data going back to 2013, according to the figures on my system. |
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03-08-26 pillz
Interesting move in gold, where the inflationary impact of higher oil prices appears to be offsetting the safe haven drive to bullion.
Spot gold is down more than 1%, just below $5,120 an ounce. |
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03-08-26 victor
| La Casa Blanca aseguró que Trump se reunió con María Corina Machado el viernes “como cortesía y a petición de ella” |
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03-08-26 pillz
| “Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!President DJT” |
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03-08-26 pillz
| and the $ is up , not down :-)) |
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03-08-26 pillz
| and gold is down , not up :-)) |
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03-08-26 victor
savo, it's even worse than that, i think.
today karoline l told maria bartiromo that dt is NOT ruling out draft or boots on the ground in iran.
all options on the table, something like that she said. |
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03-08-26 savo
| victor... could be also that nobody wants the job! |
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03-08-26 savo
meanwhile... crude almost 20% up at 108...
Hegseth is not going to be very loved in the US
this is the last nail in Trump's economy... evisceration at midterms
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03-08-26 victor
that's how much these people care
that's how little these people care.. obviously
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03-08-26 victor
pana, they chose his son, the one guy dt said not to choose.
that's how much these people care about cutting deals with dt.
//
Irán nombra a Mojtaba Jamaneí para suceder a su padre como nuevo líder supremo
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03-08-26 victor
pana, apparently it's his son
//
El nombre de Jamenei como líder de Irán continuará, dijo este domingo un miembro de la Asamblea de Expertos de Irán, el organismo encargado de elegir al próximo líder supremo del país, aunque aún no se ha anunciado una decisión final.
En un video difundido por medios iraníes, Hosseinali Eshkevari dijo que “el asunto de determinar el liderazgo… ha sido completado”.
“El nombre de Jamenei continuará. El voto ya se ha emitido y espero que sea anunciado por las autoridades”, dijo. “No hay necesidad de preocuparse”.
El comentario de Eshkevari sugiere que Mojtaba Jamenei, el segundo hijo del fallecido ayatola Alí Jamenei, será anunciado como líder supremo. |
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03-08-26 victor
spal, sanchez should not be underestimated.
he's the only leftist pre-covid leader in europe who is still in office. before covid, during covid, and after covid.
a psoe meeting, with a turkish flag :-))
Pedro Sánchez
Momentos que me envían del mitin de Soria.
Un saludo a la comunidad tuitera turca.
https://x.com/sanchezcastejon/status/2030354008297107610
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03-08-26 savo
As expected... bloodthirsty NetanDracula going now for schools, hospitals, bridges, power stations and refineries...
same script as gaza... first military installations... then innocent civilians. |
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03-08-26 victor
| Las Fuerzas Armadas de Israel dijeron que comenzaron “ataques a gran escala” contra objetivos del régimen iraní en la capital, Teherán, y en “otras zonas” del país. |
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03-08-26 victor
spal :-))
as a result of this war, sanchez' spain is now extremely popular in turkey.
watch the video.
https://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/pasion-turca-espana-guerra-sanchez-agradecimiento-television-memes-redes_2026030669aaf923e1ff634075dc184d.html
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03-08-26 spal
"dog is man's best friend, but not the other way around"
===
Won't play well with his muslim audience ...
;) |
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03-08-26 spal
Saturation Strikes: Despite the U.S. claiming a 90% reduction in Iran's ballistic capabilities, OSINT from March 6-7 confirms at least 121 drones and 16 ballistic missiles were launched at the UAE alone.
Targeting Energy Heartlands: Webchatter and satellite imagery confirm strikes on Qatar Energy’s Ras Laffan facilities and the Saudi Aramco Berri oil field. This signals a "red line" crossing—targeting the very infrastructure Iran previously avoided to keep regional peace.
The IRGC is operating with "tactical autonomy," choosing targets regardless of central government orders.
The Philippines has already triggered a deployment ban on new workers to the UAE, a move often seen as a precursor to large-scale state-led evacuations of the construction and service workforce.
Real Estate & Capital Flight
The economic engine of Dubai—real estate—is stalling as the "Geopolitical Risk Premium" is priced in overnight.
The Off-Plan Trap: Approximately 65% of 2025 transactions were off-plan. Investors are now trapped in projects scheduled for 2026-2029 with no clear timeline for completion if supply chains remain blocked.
Developer Distress: Shares in Emaar Properties and Aldar dropped over 5% this week alone. Major international lenders have reportedly put UAE property fundraisings on "indefinite hold."
Valuation Shift: While a total collapse hasn't happened yet, analysts are predicting a 30–40% short-term correction in luxury secondary market prices as "panic selling" begins among those looking to liquefy assets and move capital to Singapore or Switzerland. |
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03-08-26 victor
pana, in the meantime, while the main topic is war, all is well in sanchez' spain :-)
yesterday, sanchez posted a video playing with his dogs.. and making a joke.
"dog is man's best friend, but not the other way around"
:-))
subliminal message: i am way cooler than most other leaders. remember that and support me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o78tcc6tb3s
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03-08-26 spal
China calls to end Iran's war, but not a word about Ukraine??
===
Yes. |
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03-08-26 spal
The fact that you dont want to give her any credit, is your deal.
===
Vic I am with you on this one. |
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03-08-26 spal
Vic, me think EU can't afford to join the fight, islamism already very advanced and don't see a way to reverse it.
===
Chilling |
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03-08-26 victor
| Great Job by hard working Scott Pressler on Fox & Friends talking about using the Filibuster, or Talking Filibuster, in order to pass THE SAVE AMERICA ACT, an 88% issue with ALL VOTERS. It must be done immediately. It supersedes everything else. MUST GO TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE. I, as President, will not sign other Bills until this is passed, AND NOT THE WATERED DOWN VERSION - GO FOR THE GOLD: MUST SHOW VOTER I.D. & PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP: NO MAIL-IN BALLOTS EXCEPT FOR MILITARY - ILLNESS, DISABILITY, TRAVEL: NO MEN IN WOMEN’S SPORTS: NO TRANSGENDER MUTILIZATION FOR CHILDREN! DO NOT FAIL!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP |
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03-08-26 panasonic
Vic, this was earlier, heat is on:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/07/china/china-us-iran-wang-yi-intl-hnk |
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03-08-26 panasonic
Vic, China could be brokering a deal, they have close friends at both sides.
Iran has absolutely no control of their airspace, why insist in a nuclear program that has no future anyway?
China should have enough leverage to come up with a deal. |
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03-08-26 panasonic
| That makes him the new leader! |
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03-08-26 victor
| pana, btw, dt said yesterday there would be a big attack, which didnt happen |
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03-08-26 victor
| pana, the head of the irgc probably knows who it is. etc |
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03-08-26 panasonic
| Vic, no-name leader has a big problem, will military take orders from an anonymous leaders? We'll see... |
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03-08-26 victor
pana, now what?
Irán designa nuevo líder supremo, pero no revela el nombre
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03-08-26 panasonic
China calls to end Iran's war, but not a word about Ukraine??
China in a very difficult spot here, Iran attacking Xi close friends, who knew? |
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03-08-26 panasonic
Vic, me think EU can't afford to join the fight, islamism already very advanced and don't see a way to reverse it.
US decision is the correct one, implementation obviously requires very tough decisions.
Many years from now US will end with universal basic income and closing borders is the right move.
EU is far more advanced staged of UBI, but with open borders, a formula deemed for failure. |
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03-08-26 victor
pana, and lastly
well ??
//
Israel promete continuar la guerra contra Irán y «erradicar el régimen»
Israel va a continuar «con todas sus fuerzas» la guerra contra Irán hasta «erradicar el régimen», ha afirmado el primer ministro Benjamin Netanyahu, mientras Teherán descarta capitular y el conflicto entra en su segunda semana. |
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03-08-26 victor
pana
//
Explosión en la embajada de EE.UU. en Oslo
Una fuerte explosión se ha registrado alrededor de la 01H00 locales delante de la embajada de Estados Unidos en Oslo, sin que se reportaran víctimas por el momento, informó la policía noruega. La explosión ha ocurrido a la entrada de la sección consular de la embajada.
«No vamos a hacer comentarios sobre nada relacionado con el tipo de daños, qué es lo que ha explotado y detalles similares, más allá del hecho de que ha habido una explosión», porque «la investigación está en una fase muy temprana», ha manifestado el comandante de policía Michael Dellemyr. (AFP) |
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03-08-26 victor
pana
//
IRGC says Iran can fight ‘intense war’ with Israel, US for 6 months
Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, says the country’s forces could fight an “intense war” at the current pace for six months against the US and Israel, according to the Fars news agency.
Naini said Iran had so far used “first and second generation” missiles, but will use “advanced and less-used long-range missiles” in the coming days. |
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03-08-26 spal
Bahrain says that an Iranian drone attack damaged one of its water desalination plants.
===
The weak link |
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03-08-26 pillz
| The USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) is expected to deploy to the eastern Mediterranean, Fox News reported on Saturday, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford as the third US Navy aircraft carrier active in the region. |
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03-08-26 savo
victor..
MCM is not part of the conversation, at least until the end of Trump's presidency. He gave her 10 minutes... probably in a corridor in-between meetings and who knows who put her in that corridor... probably Lady Botox.
Venezuela has become too important for the US, oil, gold and now gas.
MCM will have a shot in 2030. Without CIA support, I think she will lose... but who knows?... it is too early to say.
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03-08-26 victor
Israel has begun striking oil storage sites in Iran as part of the next phase of the war, an Israeli source told CNN.
The Israeli military said it struck fuel sites in Tehran on Saturday evening that distribute fuel “to various consumers, including military entities in Iran.”
“This is a significant strike that constitutes an additional step in deepening the damage to the military infrastructure of the Iranian terrorist regime,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement.
Video from Reuters also showed flames and smoke rising from the Shahran oil refinery in Tehran. |
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03-08-26 victor
savo , mcm doesnt need to be in vz to know what's going on.
not only is she the leader of vente, a political party with many militants who inform her, she is also in close contact with guanipa, leader of primero justicia, who informs her of even more stuff.
plus other people who help mcm, such as those who kept her hidden, and eventually took her out of the country.
the fact that you dont want to give her any credit, is your deal.
you are blind, which is fine by me.
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03-08-26 Merlino
| Given both it is WE and the situation in ME I would not believe at all both DT & MR have engaged in a 90 minutes meeting with MCM |
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03-08-26 savo
victor... radios do not need to belong to somebody to fabricate news in favor of that somebody... all that they need is to be paid or to receive instructions from above.
the key to the fabrication is this sentence:
"a petición directa de Trump, interesado en recibir de primera mano una actualización sobre el proceso político venezolano y conocer cómo evalúa Machado la evolución de la situación sobre el terreno."
which is obviously a lie... for two reasons: 1) Machado is not in veni and 2) Trump has his own people in veni. Why would he need information about the situation in veni from somebody that is not in veni when he has people in veni that answer to him.
Think about it... in the middle of a war in iran with oil approaching 100 do you really think that MCM's opinion about the situation in veni is a priority in his mind? Clearly not.
The other suspicious sentence is :
una nueva reunión en Washington dentro de dos o tres semanas con el fin de seguir evaluando la evolución de la situación venezolana y el papel que la oposición puede desempeñar en una eventual transición política
Do you really think that with all the problems Trump has at the moment he will be thinking about planning a meeting with MCM in two or three weeks? Who knows where the world will be in 2 or 3 weeks. And in any case what is going to happen in veni within two or 3 weeks.
And that think "seguir evaluando"... Trump does not evaluate the situation in veni... that is Rubio's job.. and whoever Rubio appoints.
As long as steady Delcy does a good job... she will stay there..at least until the end of Trump's term.
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