10-16-26 carib
| Leo: given the debtor has plenty assets, but little cash, it is indeed reasonable to pay creditors essentially with assets, or with the product of such assets. Given the debtor has zero credibility, if left alone, there is the need not only of nominal US jurisdiction, but also of actual (military) control, IMHO. |
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10-16-26 savo
Powell was a true incompetent...delirious old man that coined the expression "transitory inflation"... or "symmetric inflation"
When one thought more incompetence was impossible came Warsh... this guys adds a level of unseen idiocy.
He tries to play hawk... but was have he done...? reduced M2? no.. reduced growth in M2? no...reduced the fed's balance sheet ?.. no
increased rates...? yes...25 bp in 7 months... is he kidding...? last cpi monthly print 0.6%... annualised 7.4%
all while claiming he is serious about fighting inflation... |
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10-16-26 leopardo
| Warrants on oil production, warrants on GDP, shares in Pdvsa ora other companies...just to make some examples. |
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10-16-26 leopardo
Carib you are right that it is more difficult to give bondholders value with new debt.
Recovery value will be made mostrly of alternative instruments not debt, IMHO. |
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10-16-26 carib
All news can be relevant, but the only "sure" thing is they remain in default.
;-( |
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10-16-26 leopardo
| Surely before year end some relevant news will come out. |
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10-15-26 carib
Leo: still early to say. It would have been much easier to restructure (financially, not politically) when rates were close to 0%. Hopefully some news before year end?
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10-15-26 leopardo
Recovery close to 100?
Possible….. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
Yes it will be voluntary Carib.
They have to have a big big big Consent from bondholders.
Especially on Pdvsas |
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10-15-26 spal
Somebody is holding those trillions...
===
Yes
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10-15-26 victor
Exclusivo: Estados Unidos considera usar la "madre de todas las bombas" contra Irán, según fuentes
CNN
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Según varios funcionarios estadounidenses familiarizados con el asunto, las Fuerzas Armadas han desarrollado nuevos planes de ataque que incluyen el posible uso de la llamada “madre de todas las bombas” para atacar la infraestructura energética y los emplazamientos nucleares iraníes si el presidente Donald Trump ordena reanudar las operaciones de combate antes o después de las elecciones intermedias.
El uso por primera vez de la bomba GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB), la bomba no nuclear más grande del arsenal estadounidense, en el conflicto con Irán supondría una escalada notable, aunque existen dudas sobre su eficacia para lograr cualquiera de los opciones para atacar objetivos iraníes que aún no han sido alcanzados declarados por Trump o para inclinar la balanza de la guerra, según múltiples fuentes familiarizadas con las discusiones internas de planificación militar sobre el posible despliegue de esta arma. |
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10-15-26 carib
The Iranian regime told Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon to be prepared for the United States to resume the war with Iran, following Wednesday's report that Iran currently estimates that "an American attack is only a matter of time," two diplomatic sources told The Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
Iran's message to Hezbollah, according to the sources, was: "We estimate that an American attack is a matter of time - you should also be prepared."
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10-15-26 carib
| Leo: the main issue I see is that they will have to make a voluntary exchange, and avoid holdouts by making sure litigation to seize assets (besides CITGO) will be pointless. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
Anyway I'm optimistic.
I think that everyone wants to solve the debt situation and if hey want to do it it must be with bondholder's consent sooo recovery will not be bad. |
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10-15-26 carib
| Leo: I guess that is why there are only institutional investors in the committee.. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
| You may be right Carib but you usually have to sign documents wich bind you from trading... |
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10-15-26 carib
| Leo: you mean none of the current credit committee members is trading any bonds? I doubt. |
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10-15-26 carib
SPAL: I understand that.. BUT.. If one introduced portable mortgages, at the same time an adequate fee (based on IR swaps) should be introduced to refinance when rates come down, IMHO.
I think the system would be made more solid by higher bank capital requirements too. The objective should be to make the financial architecture more solid, rather than more brittle.
Portability and IRSwaps should make real estate prices less volatile, reducing the upside when rates drop too much and the downside when they increase. |
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10-15-26 leopardo
Carib if we take a Seat in Vnz Creditor’s Group then
we cannot trade… |
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10-15-26 amateur
| https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/dgs10 |
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10-15-26 amateur
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/dgs10
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10-15-26 amateur
| We have not yet seen the victims of the recent violent rise in long term rates. Somebody is holding those trillions... |
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10-15-26 amateur
The only reasonable grounds I ever heard to justify HTM fantasy accounting, is that banks have matching long term fixed rate cheap funding that cannot be revalued (lower) under accounting rules. If the 2 misvaluations compensate, the capital of the banks is not misrepresented.
But if they took a gamble buying 30y UST with short term funding, and the bet goes wrong, HTM is just hiding a current loss. A bit too much of it and you get the Silicon Valley story.
The amount of HTM loss is not secret, it shows in the small print of the financials. They don't trick credit evaluators, it is just a gimmick to reduce capital requirements, and allow larger dividends. |
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10-15-26 spal
| Carib - that is a loss to capital - whereas if held it is a loss to income over time. Lose enough capital quickly enough and then bingo no bank Hence the hesitation. |
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