01-25-26 savo
carib.. everytime I meet a bitcoiner I ask what is his average price...
and it is generally not far from today's level... most people that bought at 10k.. bought also at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60...100.. 110... thinking it was going to 1MM as Saylor said.
Whoever bought at 40.. kept on buying... at 50.. kept on... at 80...kept on
the famous whales are the originals... those made a killing.. but most people long today are hardly making any money and will robably lose it all... unless they take their loses and buy to gold and silver... in which case they will make it up for the lost time.
when that happens we will have another leg up on precious metals. |
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01-25-26 savo
‘Repatriate the gold’: German economists advise withdrawal from US vaults
Shift in relations and unpredictability of Donald Trump make it ‘risky to store so much gold in the US’, say experts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/24/repatriate-the-gold-german-economists-advise-withdrawal-from-us-vaults |
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01-25-26 carib
Savo: I guess you just gave the US good reasons not do that..
;-)
(But I would be happy to see the bitcoin bubble bust) |
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01-25-26 savo
leo... central banks should start by eliminating the 2% target and aim at 0% inflation...
Greenspan used to say that at 400 hundred he knew monetary policy was to loose and at 300 too tight... he managed to keep gold in that range during most of his tenure.
When asked at congress if the US should return to a gold standard he answered we are in a sort of one.
The came Bernanke, Wall Street took over and the rest of the Central banks followed through ... with the results that we all know.
My theory is that the world will return to some form of gold standard.
Gold and silver are the only monetary metals given to us by the Universe... may be nickel.. but that is it.
Once that happens the US will not be able to export dollars or mortgage back securities ... and will not be able to fund its military might superiority any more.
There was a temporary hope about BTC...that is over I think, |
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01-25-26 spal
| PT - you're back and clearly have not lot it. I like Hunt brothers comparison and data point. |
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01-25-26 leopardo
In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. —
Alan Greenspan |
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01-25-26 leopardo
The truly unique power of a central bank, after all, is the power to create money, and ultimately the power to create is the power to destroy. —Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve System
(1979-1987) |
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01-25-26 carib
| Merlino: yes, there is demand for UST bonds paying real yields, but in the last year holding Gold and Silver was much more profitable. |
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01-25-26 Merlino
and central banks offloading dollars.
......................................
However, somebody is buying these same usd Treasuries with usd cash...and it does not look to be the FED ....and prices/rates do not look to be out of whack (high real rates) with inflation
There is still good demand for usd T papelitos, if I understand it |
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01-25-26 carib
Savo: I agree on both counts, concerning gold/silver temporary trend, and central banks offloading dollars.
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01-25-26 panasonic
My 2 cents, demand for compute, memory, energy, etc. Is not inflated, the only thing inflated is expected margins, big time.
Food, health, shelter and entertainment won't be an issue, distruption is inevitable.
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01-25-26 savo
pt.. the 1:3 intended to be a joke...but who knows?
i imagine all what you say is right... I am not an industrialist and have no clue how silver is used on anything tech.
I am a mere bond trader that spotted accidentally a trend in precious metals and jumped on to it. We will see how that trade ends. So far so good.. but markets are moody and can reverse.
My decision to invest in precious metals, and i informed this board at the time, was not related to the use of the metals but to a political perception.
The US decided to turn against the same people and countries that were financing with their savings the US budget deficit, the US consumer voracity and the US military.
They weaponized the dollar, bank deposits, US treasuries, tariffs and finally the army itself and threatened to invade a NATO country.
The natural response is to move away from the US$, the US banking sector, US treasuries, buy precious metals, gold miners, the swiss frank and get closer to China.
That implies a change in the existing monetary system of unknown to me consequences.
The general idea was that BTC was going to be the refuge... but btc is proving to be a scam where those entering early made the fortune and those entering after them and buying all the way to 110, like Michel Saylor, are making no money and probably will lose it all. |
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01-25-26 Merlino
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01-25-26 carib
PS: globalisation and technology allowed prolonged very low inflation in hard currencies. the return to "insularity" will most likely generate less efficiency and higher prices. IA is probably going to increase concentration of wealth and social instability.
Difficult to advise children on the safest places to thrive.
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01-25-26 patient-trader
silver 100...gold silver ratio at 50...
look at the ratio historically
could go to 1:3
...
Savo, when was the gold/silver ratio 3? During Inca times?
The Hunt brothers brought the ratio to around 20. Anyway, Silver is an industrial material with critical civilian and military use. At current levels, producers of silver and traders probably go bust left and right from margin calls and electronics manufacturers cannot calculate their output prices anymore. This Silver rally coincides with RAM prices going through the roof. Its all AI driven, where analysts project that AI hyperscalers will cover the planet with datacenters.
Obviously, one cannot have it all, flying AI companies, flying Silver, flying RAM etc. Something must give.
Either AI hyperscalers scale down plans or commodity prices come down to make electronics hardware profitable again.
Anyway, the Hunt brother Silver peak of 50 USD corresponds to roughly 150 USD. |
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01-25-26 carib
Analysts describe the bigger story as rerouting, not stopping. Vortexa’s Claire Jungman said roughly one-fifth of Venezuela’s seaborne crude exports have moved into Caribbean destinations since the crackdown began, including the Bahamas, Curaçao, and St Lucia, not because those islands are the end market, but because they offer storage, flexibility, and time. In this setup, the Caribbean functions as a staging area where cargoes can wait for downstream buyers, resale opportunities, or clearer signals on sanctions enforcement and license terms.
That reality is sharpening the spotlight on Curaçao. A separate episode has sparked debate after a tanker linked to Venezuelan crude discharged in Curaçao despite sanctions-related concerns and maritime red flags, raising questions about scrutiny standards, port responsibility, and how wider Kingdom obligations intersect with Curaçao’s autonomous decision-making.
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01-25-26 carib
Like the Rothschild did.. it is wise to have different branches of the family in different jurisdictions, and some assets in each..
That is my take especially in this dangerous times |
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01-25-26 spal
local prices start going up as a faster pace
===
This is happening ... not just yet headlines again ... but we know how slipperly the CPI and Core CPI measures and measuring process is. But supermarkets do now lie. |
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01-25-26 spal
Savo - on the contrary I do wish and hope for both of our sake that we continue to have as active a discussion on these issues as possible. There might be times when my responses are more urgent and insistent and these are when I am answering quickly from the middle of a US trading day, but like you I do confront and consider these issues daily.
Concerning "insulatation" that is probably core to all of our concerns. BTW I one of my sons is now established with a house and soon to have an English wife and lives in Chesham. So I do have things at stake there also.
Carib has spoken of his US based daughter and I have 2 other adult children and there partners here and so these issues are much greater than merely for my generation.
Obviously the transmission mechanisms of changes in the US must in their ways effect all colores.
All good reasons to keep this debate alive.
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01-24-26 savo
spal... i do not intend to have an argument ... i am simply presenting a concept.
I believe that we are in the early stages of a change in the world monetary system that has prevailed over the last 55 years.
I do not claim to know what will exactly come out of this... nor the speed of change.
I believe that the world will continue moving away form the dollar and reduce the transfer of savings from the rest of the world to the US which has funded it budget deficits, its overconsumption and its military.
I understand that living in the US with a thriving local real estate business makes you a bit immune to this sea change. But that does not change what is going on.
The writing is on the wall...and as I said before... it is being written by Central Banks and investors buying precious metals, miners and the Swiss Franc against dollars.
As precious metals and the swiss franc go up against the dollar.... dollar assets go down against precious metals and the swiss franc. Those based in america do not care... but eventually will as local prices start going up as a faster pace. Those based outside the US, like me, care a lot.
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01-24-26 carib
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei moved to a fortified underground shelter containing a series of tunnels in Tehran after senior security and military officials warned of an increased likelihood of an American strike, Iran International reported on Saturday afternoon.
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01-24-26 leopardo
Of course I will manage the position spal.
I will keep it 2-3 years…let’s see |
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01-24-26 spal
Well Leo managing the position is up to you I can only put you in harms way ...
;) |
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