08-30-26 spal
| fair - meaning longer run - normalized - next few weeks markets will jump around. |
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08-30-26 spal
A 3 to 6 cent discount for unsecured PDVSA notes relative to Sovereign paper represents fair value. Sovereign debt offers superior structural priority in a macro restructuring, while PDVSA paper carries higher corporate subordination and operational ring-fencing risks.
No commission necessary. |
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08-30-26 spal
Can Sanctions Be Tied Directly to the 17-Fields Energy Deal?
Directly. The 17-field agreement is the precise commercial output of the sanctions framework:
Sanctions Created the Discount: By isolating PDVSA and forcing asset degradation, sanctions lowered the price tag and increased the operational concessions Venezuela had to offer to attract foreign capital.
Sanctions Provided the Key: U.S. Treasury licenses (OFAC General Licenses) were the explicit operational "key" required to open the door to private operations. Venezuela could not legally export crude to Western markets or access capital without U.S. regulatory permission.
The Swap (Leverage Realized): Washington used the promise of sanctions relief and market access to secure terms that traditional state-monopoly models would never have accepted—namely, 55% private/foreign operational control, a capped ~30-45% government take, ring-fenced revenue accounts, and crude off-take directed toward U.S. energy security needs.
You may now turn to Hausmamm for a commentary on human rights, resource determination and coercive economic warfare ... he may even give you a degree in it. But then again you could use your time working out how the world actually operates. |
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08-30-26 carib
| Once again: what is the fair spread between PDVsa and sovereign bonds now? |
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08-30-26 spal
| Yes - mentioned below Carib. |
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08-30-26 carib
The U.S. plans to take a 35% passive stake in Betancourt’s North American Blue Energy Partners and would secure preferential rights to purchase 20% of its production at cost, according to people involved in negotiating the agreement.
The Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital plans to structure the investment through penny warrants that would yield the U.S. an equity ownership in the business without a significant capital investment, the people said. The Pentagon office has limited statutory authority to strike deals designed to support U.S. national-security interests, typically through loans and guarantees.
WSJ |
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08-30-26 spal
| The upside is pretty much capped now. |
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08-30-26 spal
| buying above 40–45 cents leaves limited upside margin for new entry capital. |
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08-30-26 spal
For traditional bondholders, the deal signals that long-term recovery will rely on long-dated sovereign restructuring agreements and growth-linked warrants (VRIs), rather than PDVSA resuming traditional corporate debt service.
This is now the most likely reality. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Leo - they will bounce for sure. There will be an opportunity to close out. |
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08-30-26 spal
By ring-fencing the 17 fields into special purpose vehicles (SPVs) that funnel royalties into state recovery rather than debt service, the agreement confirms that bondholders are strictly secondary. They face deep principal haircuts (50%+), extended maturities, and payout structures tied to long-term Value Recovery Instruments (VRIs) rather than immediate cash distributions.
Only wrong answers to the above will be accepted. |
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08-30-26 leopardo
No matter what Dear Spal, prices of Vnz/Pdvsa bonds
will start rising from tomorrow.
|
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08-30-26 spal
But will he also burn the rules book and shield proceeds on new debts from old creditors?
===
He does not have to. The creditors will be different. There will be no possibility of consolidation.
I would not put one cent into this if that was even remotely possible. I understand that the law can be an ass and that politics remains the realm of the worse people on earth, but this is how I see the structure. |
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08-30-26 spal
| The 17 fields will be operated under newly created private joint ventures or operational concession entities. This prevents international revenues from being immediately attached or seized by PDVSA’s global creditors in international courts. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Sorry ... Merry Christmas. |
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08-30-26 spal
| PDVSA is being fundamentally restructured, side-stepped, and demoted from an active operational state monopoly into a passive administrative landholding and royalty-collection vehicle. |
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08-30-26 spal
Risk-Adjusted Terms: The lower fiscal take reflects the high capital cost required to rehabilitate Venezuela's dilapidated midstream and upgrading infrastructure, as well as political and sanctions risk premiums.
Shift to Volume over Rent: Venezuela is prioritizing volume restoration (aiming for >1.5 million bpd) over high per-barrel extraction taxes, bringing its fiscal framework closer to liberalized investment environments like the UK North Sea or US Gulf Coast rather than traditional OPEC state-monopoly models. |
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08-30-26 spal
Total Government Take (State Rent)
Global Norm: In mature major-reserve countries or frontier basins, total government take (royalties + corporate income taxes + state participation profits) typically ranges between 60% and 85%. High-cost or high-risk offshore regions (like Brazil Pre-Salt, Norway, or Angola) generally capture 65% to 75% for the host government.
The 17-Fields Deal: By yielding an estimated ~$19/bbl on a $65 price deck (~29% gross revenue share before profit tax deductions), the effective fiscal take lands well below global averages for major oil-producing nations.
This reflects a substantial concession to attract international capital into heavily degraded infrastructure. |
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08-30-26 carib
Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, cautioned: “Rising rates are one of the biggest risks to equity and credit markets . . . We are entering the area where further rises in rates would be negative for both equity and credit.”
If rates were to rise, with the crucial US 10-year Treasury yield moving above 5 per cent, then “we should see a negative reaction to equity markets”, he added, as the higher bond yields would erode the relative appeal of equities while higher borrowing costs would squeeze profits.
|
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08-30-26 carib
| Hausman, IMHO, spoke off the cuff too early. |
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08-30-26 carib
| The second question, obviously, is the survival (or not) of PDVsa. |
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08-30-26 carib
The actual question is Veny needs big investments.
But will they be direct investments from the private sector.. or does Veny urgently need to get back to the bond market?
Trump, if I get it right, wants to shield oil revenues from litigating creditors. But will he also burn the rules book and shield proceeds on new debts from old creditors?
If the rules book remains valid, and Veny wants to get back to borrowing in the bonds market.. our bonds should recover well, IMHO. |
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08-30-26 Merlino
Good speech by Delcy, imho
The deal seems to include a reasonable take for Veni. This is necessary for the deal to stand, as persons/interests left besides it will make noise now and in the future.
Haussman an example...and IYI (N Taleb)...mcm has not been herd as yet
It seems the money related to this deal will not flow through PDVSA....I hope it will however it does not seems so...then I hope both debts republic/pdvsa will be equally treated at due curse |
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08-30-26 victor
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08-30-26 savo
leo.. prices should go through.... the roof.
There is here basically a US commitment to produce 1.5 mm barrels per annum on top of the 1MM+ being produced now... and the additional production that will come from other deals with Shell, B, Eni, etc...
this US deal changes the landscape completely.
The market still want to see some confirmation coming from the restructuring committee though. |
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08-30-26 savo
that was a silly post...
DT himself said:
"working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela"
so Delcy is the President of Veni... interim or not... she can sign as president. |
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08-30-26 victor
carib, sure..
however, apparently, maria elvira erased her initial post re this matter.
as if someone told her to erase it.
but someone made a screen capture before she erased it:
https://x.com/cumanesa/status/2093810919960928520
|
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08-30-26 leopardo
In the next days / few weeks we will see Vnz Pdvsa
Prices Go through the highs reached a few months
ago. |
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08-30-26 panasonic
"entirely within executive prerogative"
Interesting, in play:
From USA part, if solid enough and can't be undone easily, it will cement necessary "trust" required for private investments.
From Delcy's side, she will sign anything that keeps her afloat till DT's presidency is over.
Haussman, zzz take as needed, do I need recipe or can be bought otc? |
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08-30-26 savo
Maria Elvira sounds a bit desperate...
why is she not happy for veni?
or was she supposed to receive a compensation from MCM for services delivered? |
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08-30-26 carib
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08-30-26 carib
SPAL: The agreement will be be crafted to bypass congressional consent.. no surprise here.
But if it is not supported by a legitimate Veny government in the next few years, a future US president can easily revert the policy. The lease would stand, commercially, but the US might stop backing it militarily.
It will yield profits after a few years, for the investors, given the capital spending required, so it is wise to make it POLITICALLY solid on both sides.
IMHO.
Meanwhile, I hope bonds trade up soon. |
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08-30-26 victor
Rep. María Elvira Salazar
El acuerdo petrolero entre Estados Unidos y Venezuela es un gran acuerdo para Estados Unidos y para el pueblo venezolano.
Durante años, China se aprovechó de la debilidad de Venezuela para comprar su petróleo con grandes descuentos. Ahora Estados Unidos está tomando la iniciativa, y la inversión y la influencia estadounidense le ofrecen a Venezuela un camino hacia la prosperidad, la estabilidad y la seguridad.
Delcy es la persona equivocada para hacer este acuerdo.
Queremos que este acuerdo dure 100 años. Solo un gobierno respaldado por instituciones democráticas sólidas y el Estado de derecho puede garantizarlo. Y eso solo será posible con elecciones libres.
Entonces, este acuerdo podrá perdurar por generaciones. |
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08-30-26 savo
Leo.. interesting Delcy speech.
This story is better than expected.
It is essentially a deal to produce 1.5mm barrels per year during the next 25 years on top of whatever veni is producing now via Chevron and others.
It involves 17 oil fields not all fields.
Companies from other parts of the world will continue operating in veni as they are or will be invited to come.
The deal with the US is to act as middle man vis a vis US oil companies.
It is a win-win-win-win... not only win-win-win.
|
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08-30-26 leopardo
Getting 209bln in 25yrs vs 100yrs is a big difference.
Everything is calculated on a 65 usd price per barrel |
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08-30-26 leopardo
Con este acuerdo, que implica una inversión de 100.000 millones de dólares, se espera que los 17 «campos estratégicos» que operará Estados Unidos alcancen una producción de 1,5 millones de barriles diarios, lo que acercaría a Venezuela a sus picos históricos.
|
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08-30-26 leopardo
Deal is for 25 years so Vnz will get much more than expected
https://albertonews.com/politica/delcy-rodriguez-se-pronuncia-sobre-historico-acuerdo-energetico-con-ee-uu-marcara-el-futuro-de-venezuela/ |
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08-30-26 spal
Mauricio Claver-Carone – The Intermediary & Back-Channel Planner
Role: Informal Latin America Advisor & High-Level Emissary.
Operating outside formal diplomatic bureaucracy, Claver-Carone acted as the key connection connecting Washington decision-makers directly to Alejandro Betancourt and Caracas insiders. Having spent years designing "maximum pressure" frameworks and dealing with Venezuelan private equity, he identified Betancourt’s NABEP as the pre-packaged commercial shell needed to execute the project without waiting for major integrated oil majors. |
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08-30-26 spal
Privately held Venezuelan service companies—many tied to allies of the Rodríguez family stand to capture lucrative subcontracts (shock , horror ...)
;) |
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08-30-26 spal
| Betancourt acts as the field allocator for the White House, identifying specific productive blocks, evaluating field mechanics, and assigning high-yield fields to fast-moving, aligned U.S. wildcatters. |
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08-30-26 spal
| Bolichico embracing the 100 year lease concept. Well no surprise there. |
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08-30-26 spal
| US to take 35% stake in Venezuelan mogul Betancourt's oil venture, WSJ reports |
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08-30-26 spal
I am Venezuelan. I teach economic growth at Harvard's Kennedy School. These are the first two lines of his profile on X. I almost died laughing.
I am Venezuelan ... I teach economic growth ... FFS. |
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08-30-26 spal
| It costs Hausmann nothing to bloviate. Doing a deal like this is essentially very messy and takes extreme commercial savvy. Something that he will never have. |
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08-30-26 spal
Hausmann is stuck being Hausmann and fully deserves it. He is the status quo referee for the rule book. He could not work his way out of any really knotty and intractable problems - hence he bloviates.
This is where theory meets deal making. Let him carp. He is harmless. |
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08-29-26 savo
Hausmann not happy ≡ MCM not happy
Harvard University professor Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan planning minister, called it a “shameful deal.”
“Venezuelans will not respect this illegitimate deal and no major US oil company will take it seriously because they know it will not last,” Hausmann said on social media, adding that Rodríguez “has no legitimacy or constitutional power to commit Venezuela to any such deal.”
https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-oil-trump-deal-unknown-questions-reserves-c229bc39b6e1a3d5dd16f7f9e67fef3f |
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08-29-26 spal
Congress is not asked to authorize a foreign intervention or asset acquisition. Instead, the Treasury Department issues General Licenses (e.g., GL 46–50) under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), enabling private U.S. firms to operate legally.
Rather than the U.S. government taking direct sovereign title—which would require a Treaty ratified by the Senate or congressional budget allocations—100-year leases are held directly by commercial energy entities.
All sales proceeds bypass federal budget appropriations by routing through Treasury-controlled escrow accounts, sidestepping congressional power over the purse.
Rook to E7 check... Spassky v Petrosian in Game 19 of their 1969 World Championship match. |
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08-29-26 spal
| Panas - yes - entirely within executive prerogative. |
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08-29-26 panasonic
"lease slides around this issue"
Can Gov. lease those assets without house approval? |
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08-29-26 carib
Savo: IMHO it is clear that if the deal materialises with solid legal and military guarantees, bi-partisan consensus both in the USA and Veny, and sufficient political prodding of private operators, Veny bonds could recover above 100, Trump willing.
The debtor has assets worth a very large multiple of the debt, which was the main original reason for buying such securities. |
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08-29-26 savo
años para madurar
argie moved from gas importer to gas exporter in 10 years with only local investors...
with international investors and US gov support i imagine it can take much less
in any case markets are supposed to anticipate... |
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08-29-26 leopardo
“This historic operation,” the tycoon added, “more than doubles America’s oil reserves, significantly increases our oil supply, and will substantially lower fuel prices for all Americans for a long time to come, while also helping to set Venezuela on the path to extraordinary success and great prosperity.”
“This agreement will greatly strengthen the already growing relationship between Venezuela and the United States,” Trump concluded. |
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08-29-26 carib
My understanding is the target is 17 oil fields, with assessed reserves of 65BB barrels, with the US side taking a 55% controlling interest.
few more details officially available.
|
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08-29-26 carib
Asdrubal Oliveros:
"Ahora bien, tengo muchas preguntas. Porque una cosa es anunciar inversiones mil millonarias y otra bastante distinta es lograr que ese dinero efectivamente llegue y se convierta en pozos, infraestructura y producción. Estamos hablando de inversiones que necesitan años para madurar y, por tanto, requieren algo que Venezuela ha tenido dificultades para ofrecer: reglas claras y previsibles en el tiempo. Seguridad jurídica, contratos que se respeten, mecanismos de arbitraje y una institucionalidad que no dependa de quién gobierne en Caracas o en Washington" |
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08-29-26 savo
On August 27, at a business forum in Paris, the Führerin Ursula von der Leyen stated the obvious: the old advantages of the European economy have all vanished. The European economic model, she explained, rested on several pillars: low-cost energy imported from Russia, global trade, growing access to the Chinese market, strategic protection from the United States, and Western technological leadership.
What von der Leyen chose not to mention is that these advantages did not disappear by chance. They were systematically destroyed by the very institution she leads, through sanctions that severed energy and economic ties with Russia, a trade war against China, and an excess of regulation that has suffocated European industry.
Maria Zakharova, official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, reacted to von der Leyen's confession with the irony that characterizes her, creating a new moniker for the European Commissioner: "Captain Obvious of the Euro-Titanic."
From Beijing, the criticism is no less severe. Chinese analysts have observed Europe's protectionist turn with growing frustration, arguing that the EU is destroying precisely what it claims to want to protect: its own industrial competitiveness.
The EU's share of global GDP has plummeted from 30% in 2008 to just 17% in 2025, a decline three times faster than that of the Qing dynasty during its collapse. And as one Chinese commentator observed, while that dynasty fell due to foreign invasion, Europe's decline is "purely self-inflicted, something Europe has brought upon itself."
It is, in the words of a Chinese analyst, the "incorporation of protectionism directly into its system of economic and trade policy."
European leaders, Chinese commentators argue, have lost touch with economic reality. It would be hard not to agree with them. This disconnect from reality is a systemic problem affecting all European decision-making centers, not just the economic ones.
Moscow and Beijing see the same tragic irony in this European course. Europe spent years lecturing the world on free markets, strategic autonomy, and economic resilience. Yet, in its rush to punish Russia and contain China, it has demolished the very foundations of its own prosperity.
Today, energy prices in Europe are two or three times higher than in the United States and China. Its industrial base, once envied by the entire world, is losing jobs and productive capacity. Its share of global markets continues to shrink. And its leaders, having created the crisis with their own hands, now climb atop the ruins and announce that the old world is over. The only rational explanation is that they are playing for another team—one that demands Europe throw itself off the cliff. |
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08-29-26 carib
the "experienced operator" is probably a bolichico, Alejandro Betancour, indicted for frauds against PDVsa..
(I do not know the fellow, maybe a great and honest guy...) |
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08-29-26 leopardo
|
08-29-26 savo
so other companies like Chevron continue with their own fields...
this could be huge... bonds should shoot up... but will they?
|
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08-29-26 savo
Under the deal the US government will retain 55% control of a joint venture with an "experienced private operator in Venezuela", a US official told the BBC's US partner CBS News.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that US energy firms Chevron and Halliburton were nearing deals to invest billions in overhauling the infrastructure in Venezuela's oil fields, many of which have not been developed.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2zlwe7qj1o |
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08-29-26 carib
| devil waiting for details.. |
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08-29-26 carib
| Savo: the press releases I saw mentioned 65BB barrels of reserves, in which the US would have a 55% interest. |
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08-29-26 Merlino
https://www.elnacional.com/2026/08/rafael-ramirez-critica-el-acuerdo-petrolero-y-advierte-sobre-el-despojo-de-recursos-en-venezuela/
The deal must be reasonable and fair for Veni otherwise imho it will likely not stand the test of time and realizing this oil majors will not invest large amounts of fresh capital |
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08-29-26 savo
carib.. where does the 55/45 come from?
could the 65bn barrels be already the 55%? |
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08-29-26 carib
Leo: so far so good, in Veny under Trump.
Hope we get more good news..senza scherzi da prete. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
| Let’s face it: without DJT we will still have Masduro… |
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08-29-26 leopardo
| I’m NO Trump fan but for Veny he May be the right Us president… |
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08-29-26 carib
Savo: obviously underground estimated reserves and oil extracted and sold are two entirely different barrels of fish..
Then there is the 55% stake to be applied.
Imagine those 17 fields end up producing 1,5MM barrel a year (optimistically).. then the Trump cut should be about 800K barrel a day, or 300MM barrel a year.
It is not clear how much money the US is expected to pay Veny for the curtesy.. and not clear what would happen to the remaining 45%.
But anyway this will take at least 2 years to happen. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
Robbery has always been the rule in Veny…
But now it May help the economy somehow |
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08-29-26 savo
if my calculator works well 65 bn barrels at 80 dollars a barrel... this is a 5.2 trn deal... (please correct me if my numbers are wrong)
probably the biggest deal in human history.
I imagine that within that number there will be room to pay 170 bn of veni debt over time.
so following Leo... this should boost out bonds. |
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08-29-26 carib
Savo: agreed. The Veny "parliament" is now a rubber stamping outfit directed by "big brother" (of Delcy).
PSUV duly rubber stamped even before reading.
The US senate might be more keen on reading the details first.
The deal might be fashioned in a manner that does not require US congress approval.. but then it becomes less solid if there is a change of control in the US side.. |
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08-29-26 carib
| SPAL: maybe the Veny deal is good for bondholders (which is what we care here) and ultimately better for Venezuela than more suffering under Maduro&c.. but it remains most likely an extortion at gunpoint. |
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08-29-26 savo
on paper,
using your own words carib... the devil is in the detail. We do not know exactly what has been signed. At some point I imagine the Veni Congress will have to ok it. May be it becomes public.
For the moment it is Trump bragging in Truth Social and Rubio doing the usual "Yes Sir, Please Sir, You are great Sir"
Al we know for the moment is the US gov had to stand in the middle for any real investment to come into veni. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
| Anyhow: next week Pdvsa//Vnz On the upside.. |
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08-29-26 spal
take those assets ?
===
Is it a taking? I believe structuring it as a lease slides around this issue. |
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08-29-26 carib
| Panas: that is why I wrote.. action before mid-term, a couple of days ago... |
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08-29-26 panasonic
Leo, agree with your view, it's a "positive".
Q: can Trump take those assets without approval of Congress? time is running fast. |
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08-29-26 carib
| on paper,Veny/PDVsa should get the revenue from the cession of 55% of 65 BB barrel reserves to the US, + the revenue from the remaining 45% of those reserves. Looks like someone will get rich, but not necessarily the bondholders. |
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08-29-26 carib
| I also wonder if Centerview is still in the game. |
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08-29-26 carib
I think MCM should be allowed back in Veny, with security guarantees, and I think sanctions on new issuances will be lifted before any restructuring materialises (which is self evident).
I am not sure if the Trump-Delcy deal will materialise as described, and I am not sure if this is good or bad for the PDVsa spread.
I am puzzled by the timing of the Vaneck paper publication. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
| If Carib agrees too it will be a milestone… |
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08-29-26 savo
leo.. fwiw... i do agree with that...
the fact that i think MCM is an evil psycho does not mean I do not think she is good for our bonds. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
I know Savo won’t agree but, if toghether with the deal
they lift all sanctions and Psuv let’s Machado come back
to Vnz il would be great for our bonds… |
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08-29-26 savo
that is 2BB a year.
jajajajaja!!!
pillage!! |
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08-29-26 victor
Dirigente opositor retorna a Venezuela tras casi tres años y dice que es "la antesala de la llegada" de María Corina Machado
CNN Español
—
Omar González, dirigente nacional del partido Vente Venezuela y parte del círculo cercano de la líder opositora María Corina Machado, regresó este viernes al país luego de casi tres años sin pisar territorio venezolano.
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08-29-26 carib
El Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) expresó este sábado su pleno respaldo a la presidente encargada del país, Delcy Rodríguez, ante los acuerdos petroleros firmados con Estados Unidos, que también fueron confirmados por el mandatario norteamericano, Donald Trump.
"El Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela, fiel a su compromiso histórico con la soberanía nacional y el bienestar del pueblo, expresa su pleno respaldo a la compañera Delcy Rodríguez, presidenta encargada de la República, ante los acuerdos firmados con el gobierno de Estados Unidos en materia energética. Acompañamos los mecanismos de recuperación productiva que priorizan los intereses nacionales y permiten superar el impacto de más de una década de sanciones económicas, medidas coercitivas unilaterales e injustos bloqueos", reza parte del comunicado. |
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08-29-26 carib
Delcy claims 209 BB of additional fiscal revenues. Over 100 years, that is 2BB a year.
Over 65 BB barrel reserves.. 3 $ a barrel. Highway robbery?
|
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08-29-26 carib
|
08-29-26 leopardo
| 50/50=same nominal amount |
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08-29-26 leopardo
Disclosure: I own Pdvsa 24/21/37 and 35
And Vnz 31
50/50
Vnz/pdvsa |
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08-29-26 savo
| i use the Rep 6% 2020 vs PDVSA 6% 2024 or 2026 as proxy. |
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08-29-26 carib
I mean: is the spread expected to increase, or disappear?
|
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08-29-26 carib
Is there a fair remaining spread between the sovereigns and PDVsa?
if so, how much?
|
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08-29-26 leopardo
| This Deal is with ANY DOUBTs positive for our bonds |
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08-29-26 carib
| https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/emerging-markets-bonds/venezuela-sizing-the-haircut-valuing-the-exchange/ |
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08-29-26 savo
Regarding the 17 oil fields... I imagine there are other campos to explore too.
So there should still be room for companies from other countries to come in. |
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08-29-26 savo
Inversiones por más de $100.000 millones
Rodríguez afirmó que el acuerdo contempla el desarrollo de 17 campos petroleros estratégicos, con un potencial probado de 65.000 millones de barriles de petróleo.
Asimismo, indicó que se prevé una inversión superior a 100.000 millones de dólares, además de más de 209.000 millones de dólares en tributos para el Estado venezolano.
“El acuerdo permitirá incrementar considerablemente la producción de petróleo con la participación de operadores privados”, sostuvo.
Según Rodríguez, las inversiones permitirán no solo recuperar y modernizar la infraestructura petrolera, sino también generar nuevas oportunidades económicas para Venezuela.
“Estas inversiones contribuirán no solo a la recuperación y modernización de nuestra industria, sino también al crecimiento económico de nuestro país”, afirmó. |
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08-29-26 savo
DELCY 2030
https://x.com/delcyrodriguezv/status/2093498936187142301 |
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08-29-26 savo
|
08-29-26 savo
I agree with Leo.. anything that means more production and more exports is positive for the bonds.
As for spal's posts...IMHO these are AI constructions done by analogy with CH11s.
We do not know the details of the deal that has been agreed, in particular who the money will flow.
For the moment all we know is that big oils did not want to deal directly with the Veni government. They want the US government to stand in the middle. And that is what is happening here.
In Pillz words it is a win-win-win.
The US secures a source of long term oil.
Big oils are protected from future nationalizations.
Veni sees massive influx of capital and future exports. |
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08-29-26 leopardo
Eventhough this does not directly concern our bonds I think it
will greatly improve the mood on Vnzuela assets financial and not
soooo bonds will rise in the next few weeks.
Keep Seat belts fastened!!! |
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08-29-26 Merlino
|
08-29-26 Merlino
| Bond prices will tell about direction, I guess |
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08-29-26 Merlino
In this AI scheme it is not considered any fresh money coming from IMF/Institutions, Banks and Corporations, which are the standard providers of fresh capital usually following a debt/liabilities restructuring. All these providers of fresh capital do it bcz they are interested to have a take in the financial or operative bz.
If I understand it correctly, the AI scheme is considering that all funds to increase production, pay attached legal judgements, build infrastructure, etc. come exclusively from production revenues.
Logical perhaps however it would be a first, it seems to me.
Can or can´t happen however for this to happen it must go against a lot of personal and special interests, likely already participating in negotiations and in the definition of the scheme. Unlikely they will go totally against themselves, I think and hope.
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08-29-26 spal
Example ... concerning the waterfall ...
That four-tier priority waterfall was gleaned and synthesized from policy frameworks, court precedents, and commercial reality, rather than transcribed from a single official rulebook.
No government document lists a formal "Tier 1 to Tier 4" chart for escrow payouts. Instead, the hierarchy reflects how U.S. executive policy, federal court decisions, and financial realities intersect on the ground:
1. What IS Documented (The Hard Legal Facts)
U.S. Executive Control: Congressional testimony (such as Secretary Marco Rubio’s statements to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee) and reports from the Treasury Department confirm that Venezuelan crude export proceeds are routed into U.S.-monitored escrow accounts (now handled via U.S. Treasury oversight).
Blocking Bondholder Claims (Tier 4 Wall-Off): Under U.S. sanctions frameworks and Executive Orders, proceeds in government-controlled accounts are explicitly shielded from attachment by general creditors. Standard unsecured bondholders (defaulted 2027, 2031, or PDVSA 2022 notes) have no statutory right or legal mechanism to garnish or seize cash moving through this system.
Secured vs. Unsecured Priority (Tiers 2 & 3): Proceedings in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware (Crystallex / ConocoPhillips v. Republic of Venezuela / CITGO sale) established that only claims backed by explicit court orders, ICSID arbitrations, or specific collateral (like the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bond tied to CITGO equity) hold legal standing to attached assets.
2. What WAS Gleaned / Synthesized (The Tier Model)
The structure was built by combining those legal constraints with the economic mandate of the master lease:
Why Tier 1 (Capex) Moves First: Before anyone gets paid, the fields must produce oil. Servicing contracts for field operators (such as SLB, Halliburton, or Chevron) and infrastructure repair costs take absolute commercial precedence—if the oil doesn't flow, there is no escrow revenue to divide.
Why Bondholders Sit at the Bottom: Because Washington’s explicit policy objective is stabilizing the interim administration and encouraging long-term capital deployment into the oil sector, releasing escrow cash to satisfy billions in defaulted secondary-market paper would deplete the fund without repairing a single pipeline.
Summary
The four-tier hierarchy is an analytical model illustrating how the system operates under current law and policy. Washington controls the tap, capital expenditure gets funded first, legal judgment holders fight in court, and unsecured bondholders remain sidelined until a formal, comprehensive sovereign debt restructuring takes place.
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So not written in black and white but a synthesis of where it appears to be heading based on all available information. |
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08-29-26 spal
But honestly - it is way more effective to have a well prompted and back tested AI on this.
You need to drive and direct the tool, but it can be very effective. Certainly I think so. |
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08-29-26 spal
Here this might help:
The specific details surrounding the priority cash flow waterfall and the 100-year master lease/concession legal structure are derived from executive-level policy disclosures, legal filings in foreign arbitration courts, and reporting by major financial news outlets (including Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and Axios).
Because these agreements involve executive-led negotiations, international law, and Treasury regulations, the primary legal and regulatory sources underpinning these mechanisms include:
1. Sources for the Cash Flow Waterfall & Escrow Mechanics
U.S. Department of the Treasury (OFAC) Regulatory Framework:
OFAC General Licenses & Specific Authorizations: The rules establishing U.S. Treasury control over Venezuelan oil proceeds originate from amended OFAC General Licenses (and underlying Executive Orders such as E.O. 13884 and E.O. 14373 regarding the protection of Venezuelan state assets). These regulations mandate that all settlement transactions and crude sales clearing through Western financial institutions must pass through blocked or U.S. government-monitored escrow accounts.
U.S. District Court (District of Delaware) Filings – Crystallex & ConocoPhillips vs. Republic of Venezuela:
The legal priority of claims against Venezuelan oil revenues (separating secured/collateralized creditors from unsecured bondholders) is anchored in federal court records in Delaware (PDV Holding / CITGO auction proceedings).
Federal court rulings explicitly detail why unsecured bondholders (general PDVSA/Republic notes) lack direct attachment rights to incoming crude proceeds, whereas creditors holding ICSID international arbitration awards or specific asset pledges (like the PDVSA 2020 8.5% bondholders pledged against CITGO) hold priority standing in court-supervised waterfalls.
Financial Press & Institutional Commodity Desks:
Senior reporting by Reuters and Bloomberg energy desks breaking down the U.S. State Department and Treasury disbursement mandates, confirming that initial cash releases are strictly prioritized for on-site operational capital expenditure (capex) for service operators (e.g., SLB, Baker Hughes, Chevron) to rebuild field production before remitting net funds.
2. Sources for the Legal & Lease Structure
Article 12 of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela:
The Constitutional Baseline: Article 12 explicitly dictates that "mineral and hydrocarbon deposits... are goods of the public domain, and as such are inalienable and imprescriptible."
Legal scholars and Venezuelan opposition analysts cite Article 12 to demonstrate why the arrangement is structured as a long-term master lease/concession (transferring operational rights, wellhead export title, and revenue custody) rather than an outright sale of land or subsoil title, which would be unconstitutional without formal assembly amendment.
The Venezuelan Hydrocarbons Law (Ley Orgánica de Hidrocarburos):
The statutory authority governing Joint Ventures (Empresas Mixtas) and private operating contracts. Provisions within the reform decrees permit private operators to hold direct operational control, manage export logistics, and retain wellhead title under emergency state concession frameworks when national state enterprises (PDVSA) fail to meet operational benchmarks.
U.S. State Department & National Security Council (NSC) Policy Briefings:
Statements and background briefings from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Energy Secretary Chris Wright detailing the strategic framework: establishing 90-to-100-year commercial operating concessions across 17 targeted Orinoco and Maracaibo oil fields, designed to secure Western Hemisphere energy supplies and systematically replace legacy Chinese (CNPC) and Russian (Roszarubezhneft) joint venture participation. |
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08-29-26 spal
spal.. where are you getting this info? can you post a link?
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Sorry - it is all AI - it is scraped from all live and active sources globally (including OSCINT).
If you want a particular fact validate let me know I will run it and return the exact source - at the moment I have ordered the AI to distill the facts. |
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08-29-26 savo
| spal.. where are you getting this info? can you post a link? |
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