10-09-26 savo
carib.. i can think perfectly well of a future in which solvent creditors trade below UST rates.
That is happening already in several european countries in euro rates and in Latam too. Several argie corps and provs, for example, trade tighter than the sov.. both in local currency and dollars.
The US can not get out of its debt trap without default. Default can take many forms... it is not that it is going to happen... it is happening already.
Libertarians say interest rates do not exist because of the Central bank... they exist because time exists...and their role is to clear present vs future consumption.
When the Central bank artificially suppresses them...there is two much consumption and too little saving... hence too much debt... and too little investment.
If the Fed would allow the market to set rates...as it should... the US would get out of its debt trap... but it is not going to happen.
The US can have little debt and low interest rates... too much debt and low interest rates... but can not have both too much debt and high interest rates... that is were it is right now... and on top they weaponized the dollar..so they have no takers of USTs unless they pay higher and higher rates.
The US will not go down without a fight... so expect many more wars in the process. |
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10-09-26 panasonic
| Carib, making mortgages portable would certainly unlock RE, even with a 100bps increase to migrate would work. |
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10-09-26 carib
Concerning the 2-3% mortgages, in my opinion the only viable solution to unblock the RE market is to make them portable.
Obviously those mortgages are worth much below par for the creditor, but I assume the creditor matched those loans with equal duration bonds issued at even lower rates. |
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10-09-26 carib
Savo: The world currently looks quite crazy to me.. but I do not expect the USA to default on its debt... because there is no need to do so.
Anyway, for the time being this is financial fiction.
Venezuela is still in default, and is still not extracting the amount of oil necessary to put it back on a sound trajectory. It certainly can do so within the next 24-36 months, provided it remains a sort of US protectorate, in my opinion.
Left to themselves.. they have no track record of sound economy and finances in the last 40 years, and they do not even have a viable currency, in reality.
I hope there is a viable restructuring of Veny/PDVsa debt within the next 12 months, and I will decide if selling or holding once the terms are made public.
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10-09-26 savo
... add to those 30 trn... the i do not know how many trillions of mortgages at 2 o 3 %...
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10-09-26 savo
carib.. that is old thinking... the US is going to default... either returning to its creditors dollars that will buy a very small fraction of what they bought when those dollars werelent... or simply by repudiating the debt. The first avenue will provoke massive inflation and the second will provoke massive inflation too.
People are selling USTs... nobody is buying USTs willingly as Spal pointed out...
30 trn of treasuries are sitting somewhere in US accounts... banks.. insurance companies... funds...the FED... which marked to market will bankrupt the US financial sector immediately.
The US borrowed three new trillion over the last 12 months... meaning 3tr was the real and honestly calculated fiscal deficit... next year it will have to pay higher rates on more debt... so the deficit will be larger ..US debt has become ponzi.
We are contemplating the end game...live.
So it is perfectly possible that foreign commodity exporting solvent creditors like veni will trade below USTs or at that level because they will be awash in dollars or they ask to be paid in gold...as I would recommend.
The only unknown I have is whether veni's oil will not be simply robbed by the US.. ie taken but not paid. |
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10-09-26 victor
Acosado por las encuestas, Trump anuncia un acuerdo con Putin para que EE.UU. reciba diésel de Rusia
El presidente de EE.UU. recurre al rival tradicional de la primera potencia mundial para abaratar el combustible, una urgencia política para los republicanos |
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10-09-26 carib
| Savo: my point is that with the UST yielding 5,5%.. new veny bonds with 15 years duration would not have an exit yield of only 6%, and that a 1-7% step up would not be priced much above 60.. hence not far from current prices, possibly lower. |
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10-09-26 victor
| Una deuda por narcotráfico habría llevado a Nicolás Maduro a negociar la entrega de explosivos de las reservas del Ejército venezolano a las Farc, en una operación que, según la justicia estadounidense, buscaba saldar compromisos económicos con la antigua guerrilla colombiana y que habría contribuido a fortalecer su capacidad para ejecutar ataques en territorio nacional. |
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