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08-01-26 savo
OPENAI IS GOING TO TAKE THIS ENTIRE MARKET DOWN WITH IT
And you don't have to own a single share to get hurt.
What I'm about to explain should worry anybody who thinks they're diversified:
OpenAI is a LOAD-BEARING company. Pull it out and the whole structure comes down.
They spent $17.2 billion on Microsoft Azure in calendar 2025, which is 69% of Microsoft's entire year-over-year growth. Take that one customer out and Azure grew 8%, which barely beats inflation.
Now look at what Microsoft just reported:
The backlog everyone is celebrating came in at $678 billion, up 84%, and the stock ripped. Sounds fantastic until you realize that when you exclude OpenAI the backlog grew only 25%.
Back in January, when that number was $625 billion, roughly $281 billion of it was owed by one private company nobody can audit.
And Oracle is in even WORSE shape.
Something like $300 billion of its backlog, more than half, rides on the same counterparty.
So you think you own Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, CoreWeave, Nvidia and SoftBank?
What you actually own is the same trade 6 different ways, and every leg of it runs back to one company that burns cash and still cannot go public.
The people with real money are already backing out.
Julien Garran pointed out that Masayoshi Son could not get a $10 billion bridge loan against his own OpenAI shares. Think about that for a second, because nobody says no to that man.
Blue Owl walked away from a $10 billion Oracle financing. Three months ago the banks were dancing near the door and now they are walking through it.
Then there is Julien's depreciation work, which makes this even worse:
Run the capex schedule out and hyperscaler net income falls 98% by 2033. To break even they would need to build 20 killer apps inside 6 years. Another Google Search. Another YouTube. Another Office.
They have not built ONE.
If OpenAI cannot go public in the next 8 months, they are dead.
Whenever you see hubris and debt in the same room, run, don't walk.
https://x.com/gnoble79/status/2083286349239513196 |
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07-31-26 savo
| merlino... this guy lives in mars... he clearly does not go to the supermarket.. |
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07-31-26 Merlino
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie Jul 29
Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, all the chatter is about elevated inflation. Meanwhile, oil and industrial commodity prices are well off their nearby highs. The USD is strong. There is no wage acceleration at all. Demand growth is now running at a stall-speed 1-1/2% annual rate. Core service sector price trends are decelerating nicely, and core goods prices are completely flat over the past six months. If you replace the shelter components of the CPI with real-time rent and home price data, core inflation is running at the grand total of 1.4%.
There are narratives and then there are facts. The Fed would need to have its head examined to raise rates today or even ratify market expectations of two hikes ahead.
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Jeffrey Gundlach @TruthGundlach 15h
30 year maturity Treasury bond holders want Fed hikes, not more Fed committees.
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07-31-26 savo
meanwhile the UST10 and UST30 30 year charts look horrible for the fiscal deficit.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30 |
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07-31-26 savo
to provide additional collateral
showing that the earnings and stocks rally is fueled exclusively by credit... the same credit that fuels inflation...
The Fed is trapped.. reduce or contract credit to stop inflation would kill the stock market and provoke a financial crisis...
Do not contract credit and inflation will continue its ascendant march...
#deathbyinflationordeathbyfinancialcrisis
Warsh tough talk is not credible..he does not need to talk.. he can act.. he has the tools... but will not. |
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07-31-26 spaldo
https://time.com/article/2026/07/30/venezuelan-president-delcy-rodriguez-interview/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=300726
How Delcy Rodríguez Went From Maduro Loyalist to Trump Proxy
by
Eric Cortellessa/Caracas
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SENIOR CORRESPONDENT
JUL 30, 2026 1:00 PM CET |
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07-31-26 spal
unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
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8h
NEWS: Wall Street banks have asked funds heavily concentrated in certain industries to provide additional collateral, per FT |
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