03-29-26 ruspan
The Gulf War is already impacting the global food system—and the consequences could be far more serious than rising oil prices, according to The Telegraph.
"The longer the war continues, the worse the looming global food crisis will become," says a column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, a British economics journalist.
The blow has struck the very heart of fertilizer production.
"Supplies of urea, ammonia, and sulfur were halted for 27 critical days in the agricultural calendar," the author writes.
At the same time, export restrictions by China, Russia, and Turkey have worsened the situation.
"About 45% of global nitrogen fertilizer supplies have either already been interrupted, disrupted, or are under threat," the article notes.
The crisis is unfolding at a crucial moment—before the Northern Hemisphere sowing season.
"This is happening just before spring sowing... This is the worst of the 'black swans,'" the author emphasizes.
The consequences could be systemic.
"This is the number one concern today. All major grain crops, as well as animal feed, are at risk," said WTO representative Jean-Marie Paugam.
"In some countries, people will die of hunger if they don't receive imports," the article states.
Prices have already risen: the global price of urea has increased by approximately 60%, to around $680 per ton, and in some regions, it has reached $900.
Meanwhile, a significant portion of supplies is simply stuck.
"24 ships carrying fertilizer are currently in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach farmers," said the head of the US Fertilizer Institute.
A separate risk is the concentration of supplies.
Up to a third of the global urea trade and about half of the sulfur supply come from the Persian Gulf countries.
Over the long term, the effect will mount.
"First, a hit to fertilizer supplies, then a drop in crop yields in the fall, and then a rise in food prices in 2027," experts warn.
"The lag is measured in seasons, not days," the article states.
"In the new world, survival requires growing your own food, producing your own energy, and producing your own fertilizer," the author concludes.
(Re- translated back from Russian)
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03-29-26 amateur
| Sorry for duplicate post… |
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03-29-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations? |
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03-29-26 pillz
Iran's Pezeshkian clashes with IRGC's chief over control of Iran, marking rifts in regime - report
Iran International reported that Iran's President Pezeshkian criticized the IRGC's approach of increasing tensions in the region and attacking neighbouring countries.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891479 |
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03-29-26 spal
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03-29-26 pillz
Pilly - we honestly need you sage and wise insight on Israel here.
//
there is nothing to say, Israel try to change the regime in Iran, if not they will have 3 to 5 years time to re-fight ... |
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03-29-26 spal
UAE has an active role in Iran war and will be pounded if US invades, Iranian sources say
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Boom boom boom boom
I'm gonna shoot you right down,
right offa your feet
Boom Boom Lyrics by John Lee Hooker |
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03-29-26 spal
Bahrain's aluminum facility hit in Iran attack, state news agency says
https://cnn.com/2026/03/28/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump?post-id=cmnb18twj00003b6t3ihhis4g
There goes the neighborhood
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03-29-26 Merlino
| https://x.com/WoodMackenzie/status/2037515052937290200 |
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03-29-26 spal
This is indeed a "grave escalation" for several strategic reasons:
Houthi Entry: For the first time in this month-old war, the Houthi rebels officially entered the conflict today (Saturday), launching their own missiles toward "sensitive Israeli military sites." This forces Israel to defend a 360-degree front.
Hypersonic Penetration: The reported strike on the fortified IDF command center suggests that the Fattah-2 is successfully maneuvering around THAAD and Arrow-3 interceptors. OSINT analysts are calling this a "new era of air defense" where traditional interceptors are failing to achieve a 100% kill rate.
Regional Spillover: By targeting Irbil and bases in Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan Air Base) simultaneously, Iran is effectively ignoring U.S. President Trump’s "ceasefire window" (originally set to expire April 6) and is instead opting for a "deterrence by punishment" strategy. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Hypersonic missile attacks directed at Dubai International Airport. |
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03-29-26 spal
| Or sabotage? ... That is a possibility that I also heard floated. |
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03-28-26 spal
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
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Pilly - we honestly need you sage and wise insight on Israel here.
From an outsider's perspective Pilly they seem to be way out of control here. I really hope this is not the case. |
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03-28-26 carib
| Or sabotage? (like the fire in the laundry room) |
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03-28-26 carib
| I heard a rumour most toilets on the Gerald Ford (now in Crete) are out of order. Shitty pentagon tenders? |
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03-28-26 carib
I second Amateur.
1) China is gaining with Trumpism. Never try to stop an enemy who is harming himself.
2) Machiavelli wisely suggested that enemies should be treated well or killed, but never wounded.
Trump proved to the Ayatollahs they really need nukes to be feared, so either Iran is turned into a second Venezuela (unlikely) or we need shaven leaders (preferably the Shah's granddaughter).
Declaring victory and going home can be "Trumpish".. but I fear would not solve the problem. |
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03-28-26 amateur
Pillz, I second Spal’s question:
Is it possible that Israel forsaw this, and their objective was to get to a point where the only way out becomes the total destruction of Iran?
Can they really not knock down the remaining missile and drone launch installations? |
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03-28-26 amateur
“Leaving China without oil supply.. at some point they will respond.”
Savo, China may shout but they are enjoying:
1) US bleeding in Iran, spending military resources and losing goodwill, domestic and international;
2) USA damaging its postwar alliance with Europe and Canada;
3) Europe bleeding from Ukraine support, Oil+gasimports and loss of USA alliance
4) Russia bleeding in Ukraine becoming a mere vassal of China.
So China is enjoying. Most of the energy they can replace by reactivating coal.
And the window to go after Taiwan is slowly opening…
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03-28-26 spal
Schrödringer's Trump
Now claiming that he has won the war, is currently winning the war, needs help to win the war and needs no help to win the war. All to destroy a nuclear program he claims to have destroyed last year. |
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03-28-26 carib
| Lea más: (Senadoras de EE.UU. cuestionan operaciones con bonos de Venezuela en torno a caída de Maduro) https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/senadoras-de-eeuu-cuestionan-operaciones-con-bonos-de-venezuela-en-torno-a-caida-de-maduro/ |
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03-28-26 savo
this is a mess turning into a world war... the US is essentially leaving China without oil supply.. at some point they will respond.
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03-28-26 carib
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03-28-26 ruspan
LR2 (Long Range 2) 80,000–159,999
Suezmax 120,000–200,000
VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) 160,000–319,999
VLCC 200,000–320,000
ULCC (Ultra Large Crude Carrier) 320,000–549,999 ULCC 320,000–550,000
I am sorry, copy/past did not work well. Here are the basic numbers.
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03-28-26 ruspan
Oil tankers in the Suez Canal are primarily limited by a maximum draft of
(
), a beam of
(
), and a height (air draft) of
(
). Known as "Suezmax," these vessels generally have a maximum capacity of around
to
deadweight tons (DWT) and an overall length of up to
(
).
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
+3
Key Size Constraints (Suezmax):
Draft:
(
).
Beam (Width):
(
).
Height (Air Draft):
(
).
Deadweight Tonnage (DWT): Typically
–
DWT.
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+3
Operational Considerations:
Fully Laden vs. Ballast: While many loaded tankers fit, some fully laden Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) may exceed these limits and must partially unload cargo (transshipment) before passing.
Channel Depth: The canal depth is approximately
(
).
Bridge Height: The Suez Canal Bridge restricts the height of vessels to
.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
Kuwait Oil Tanker Co. S.A.K.
+1
Suezmax vessels are specifically designed to meet these maximum dimensions to allow for efficient passage between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea. |
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03-28-26 carib
| What is the size limit for oil tankers in the Suez canal? |
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03-28-26 spal
Force Majeure: Analysts expect Saudi Aramco to declare Force Majeure on Red Sea deliveries within the next 24–48 hours, effectively removing 4.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from the global waterborne market.
he Grey Market and $120 Brent Forecast
The "Security for Oil" pact’s collapse has created a historic inversion in the shadow markets.
Russian Urals Premium: For the first time, Russian Urals is trading at a $5–$10 premium over Brent, reaching $105.50/bbl on the grey market. Moscow is now the world’s "lender of last resort" for crude.
Sunday Night Forecast: When markets open on March 29, a $10–$15 "gap up" is expected. We are projecting a breach of $120/bbl within the first hour of Asian trading. |
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03-28-26 spal
As the Houthis join the Iran war, a look at the oil tanker situation around the Red Sea and critical Bab al-Mandab Strait from
@MarineTraffic
.
Dozens of tankers have rerouted to the Saudi oil port of Yanbu (highlighted), with dozens more transiting the waterway.
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They are possibly trapped - it is an exercise in really good timing by the Houthis |
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03-28-26 spal
The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have decided to officially join the ongoing war on the side of Iran, with sirens currently sounding across Southern Israel due to the launch of a ballistic missile from Yemen.
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03-28-26 spal
OSINT Verification: Immediacy of the Threat
The Trigger: Today's (March 27) simultaneous Israeli/US strikes on Mobarakeh Steel (Isfahan) and Khuzestan Steel (Ahvaz) provided the IRGC with the "strategic permission" to target regional metallurgical hubs.
The Order: Tasnim and Fars News Agencies have broadcast the evacuation mandate for Saudi Hadeed, Emirates Steel, Qatar Steel, Bahraini Foulath, KWT Steel, and Yehuda Steel.
Immediacy: The IRGC Aerospace Force (Gen. Mousavi) has characterized this not as a future warning, but as a pre-launch protocol. Historically, in this 2026 conflict, Iranian "evacuation orders" have preceded kinetic impact by 4 to 12 hours. |
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03-28-26 spal
| Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Yaroslavl Oil Refinery |
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03-28-26 spal
| Pilly ... your view on this move old friend? |
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03-28-26 spal
Israel ... I would attempt to seriously reign them in. But since I am just a share trader I am staying long oil and oil infrastructure.
I mean seriously Israel did not anticipate this? And worse if they did ... and I think they did. |
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03-28-26 spal
Based on current OSINT reports and state media releases from Tehran today, March 27, 2026, the claim is verified as true.
This evacuation order marks a significant expansion of Iran’s target list, moving from energy infrastructure (targeted on March 18) to the regional industrial and metallurgical sector.
OSINT Verification & Context
The Trigger: Earlier today (Day 28 of Operation Epic Fury), the Israeli Air Force conducted simultaneous strikes on two of Iran's primary steel hubs: Mobarakeh Steel (Isfahan) and Khuzestan Steel (Ahvaz). These facilities, partially owned by the IRGC, sustained heavy damage to power substations and production lines.
The Order: In immediate retaliation, the IRGC’s public relations office and the Tasnim News Agency published a warning for workers at "US- and Israeli-linked" industrial sites to evacuate. The order specifically advises all personnel and residents within a 1-kilometer radius of the listed plants to leave to avoid "imminent harm."
Targeted Facilities (Verified List):
Saudi Arabia: Hadeed (SABIC) complex, Al-Jubail.
UAE: Emirates Steel Arkan, Abu Dhabi.
Qatar: Qatar Steel, Mesaieed.
Bahrain: Foulath (SULB & GIC), Al Hidd.
Kuwait: United Steel Industrial Co (KWT Steel), Shuaiba.
Israel: Yehuda Steel, Isdud (Ashdod).
Strategic Implications
By targeting these specific plants, Tehran is moving to paralyze the regional construction and defense supply chains. Analysts at CSIS and Verisk Maplecroft suggest this is a "horizontal escalation" intended to prove that Israel’s tactics against Iranian industry will be met with symmetrical economic costs for GCC partners.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have reportedly raised their civil defense alert levels to "Red" in response, with some non-essential staff already being moved from the Jubail and Abu Dhabi sites as of 8:00 PM local time. |
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03-28-26 spal
Iran has issued an evacuation order for the following #steel production plants:
Saudi Hadeed Steel
Emirates Steel Arkan
Qatar Steel
Bahraini Foulath
Kuwaiti United Steel Industrial Co
Israeli Yehuda Steel
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03-28-26 spal
BREAKING: The BAPCO refinery complex is on fire in Riffa, Bahrain, locals tell Rerum Novarum.
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Whoops |
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03-28-26 spal
Protest is rapidly escalating in Bahrain. The Al Khalifa family is likely relocating to Saudi Arabia soon, Iran may reclaim Bahrain.
Nearly 65% of population of Bahrain are pro-Iranian Shia. |
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